Fed Chair Powell will speak at a George Shultz Memorial Event today at 01:00 GMT/20:00 ET. He will deliver some brief remarks and participate in a Q&A session. You can sleep well because he's not going to touch on monetary policy given that the Fed is in the blackout period. As a reminder, the Fed blackout period starts the second Saturday preceding an FOMC meeting and ends the Thursday following the meeting. Federal Reserve policy limits the extent to which FOMC participants and staff can speak publicly or grant interviews during Federal Reserve blackout periods. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Fundamental OverviewThe USD has been weakening across the board ever since Fed’s Williams endorsed a December rate cut. The greenback then extended the losses further last week following soft ADP data and a Bloomberg report saying that Hassett emerged as the frontrunner for the Fed Chair position. The probability for a December cut is now at 92%, which makes it a done deal. We won’t get much data before the FOMC meeting, so the focus will likely be mainly on jobless claims and ADP data, which haven’t been showing any strong improvement. Weak data should keep weighing on the greenback, while strong data could provide some short-term reprieve. At the end of the day though, it’s all about the FOMC decision now and the following NFP and CPI reports. On the JPY side, the currency has been gaining some ground on the back of Governor Ueda’s comments in which he suggested that a rate hike could still be debated, although there was no clear hint to such a move. The BoJ is focused primarily on wage negotiations, and they are trying to get enough data before the upcoming meeting to decide whether an earlier than expected rate hike is warranted or more time is needed to get a better view. The market is now pricing a 36% chance of a rate hike at the December meeting.USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY broke below the upward trendline, opening the door for a pullback into the 153.50 support. The sellers piled in on the break and will keep on targeting the support zone. The buyers, on the other hand, should wait for the price to come into the support to position for a rally back into new highs with a better risk to reward setup.USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the current pullback. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into the 153.50 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to pile in for a rally into the 160.00 handle.USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor resistance around the 155.66 level where the price reacted from several times in the past days. If we were to get a pullback into this resistance, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into the support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to extend the pullback into the trendline next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.Upcoming CatalystsToday we get the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Wednesday, we have the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior 65.944k; revised to 65.647kNet consumer credit £1.12 billion vs £1.35 billion expectedPrior £1.49 billion; revised to £1.40 billionNet borrowing of mortgage debt by individuals fell back to £4.3 billion in October, after a rise to £5.2 billion in September. Meanwhile, net borrowing of consumer credit by individuals decreased for a second consecutive month to £1.1 billion but the annual growth rate for all consumer credit remained unchanged at 7.2% in October. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 46.2Key findings:Domestic demand strengthens, downturn in new export work eases Factory gate selling prices reduced for first time in over two years Comment:Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence “November saw further signs of recovery in the UK manufacturing sector. The headline PMI is back in growth territory for the first time in over a year, with output up for a second month and the trend in new business stabilising following 13-months of continual decline. Business optimism has also continued its recovery, rising to a ninemonth high. “The numbers are especially encouraging as this improvement occurred despite November seeing elevated levels of business uncertainty, and in some cases an element of gloom, ahead of the Autumn Budget. "The lifting of this uncertainty caused by the long lead-in to the Chancellor's budget announcement should hopefully provide a boost in December, but it will be interesting to see the extent to which business might react to the absence of any significant growth-promoting measures. After all, despite the improvement in the performance of the manufacturing sector, any growth is still worryingly weak. "Rising competitive pressures and slower cost inflation meanwhile led to factory gate prices being cut for the first time in over two years. This combination of soft industrial performance and subsiding price pressures will add to the shift in policy debate away from inflation fears towards supporting economic growth.” This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Can't keep a good gold down. That seems to be the mantra for 2025 and that's still persisting as we get into the final month of the year. After a rush higher to start October upon clearing $4,000, gold hit an air pocket before consolidating in a flag/wedge pattern well into November trading. But in ending the month, buyers made a move and now we're starting to see a technical breakout in a push higher above $4,200 again.The nudge higher now threatens a daily break above the November high of $4,245, with the highs today being the most in nearly six weeks. As mentioned last week, clearance above $4,200 should continue to keep bulls flying high and the price action today looks to reaffirm that.In terms of fundamental plays, the Fed being poised to cut rates remains one of the more bullish factors underpinning gold alongside political and geopolitical uncertainties still engulfing markets across the globe. But perhaps it is more straightforward in the sense that demand conditions continue to run more rampant as well, especially when it comes to talks of de-dollarisation and central banks globally - especially China - continuing to ramp up gold buying.Besides that, flow patterns are also going to be a supportive factor with December being one of the better months for gold in recent years. Last year was an exception though, so will 2025 repeat that pattern or will this year stick to the seasonal norm? This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 50.0The headline reading is a five-month low with the output index declining to a nine-month low. That sees the euro area post a contraction in the manufacturing sector again as new orders in particular reflect a drop. Business confidence did pick up however but employment conditions did suffer as job losses picked up by the sharpest since April. HCOB notes that:“In terms of the number of countries in which industry is growing again, the outlook for the eurozone looks quite reasonable. Of the eight countries in which Manufacturing PMIs are recorded, a clear majority of six countries are showing a positive economic picture. However, when the sizes of these economies are taken into account, the situation looks completely different, as it is the two largest economies whose industries slipped even deeper into recession in November. In France, this is probably due to the continuing political uncertainty, which is causing many companies to hold back on investment decisions. In Germany, a large part of the economy appears to be disappointed with the federal government's course of action to date, and a dangerous sense of resignation regarding the country's ability to reform may be taking hold. However, we believe that visible investments in infrastructure could soon revive the mood. The current picture of the eurozone is sobering, as the manufacturing sector is unable to break out of stagnation and is even tending towards contraction. “In search of rays of hope, there are some notable developments. Spain's industry is escaping the downward pull of the major eurozone economies and has remained in growth territory for the seventh month in a row. Although Italian factories are not showing any particular momentum, they are at least growing after a contraction in September and a stagnation in October. It is encouraging to see that manufacturing order intakes have risen in these two southern European countries. This suggests that production will continue to expand here in the coming months. “Most companies in the eurozone are confident that they will be able to expand their production in the next twelve months. In this regard, the mood in Germany has improved somewhat, and in France there has even been a shift from pessimism to optimism. If one believes the saying that “half of economics is psychology,” then this increased confidence is an indication that things will improve in the coming year.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior was 49.6Key findings:Supplier delivery times lengthen for third straight month Comment:Commenting on the PMI data, Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Germany’s manufacturing sector appears to be unable to cross the threshold to expansion. Since July 2022, the headline PMI has been stuck below the 50 mark, and after it looked in recent months as if it might enter growth territory, the index has now slumped again. Although companies have now been increasing production for nine months in a row, other indicators such as order intakes, employment, and inventories clearly show how bad the situation in industry still is. “Foreign orders have been weak since August, but in November they showed a sharp decline. One explanation could be that the largest buyers of German products to date, US companies, stocked up on imports in the first half of the year in particular and now have correspondingly less demand for goods from Germany. It is certainly also unhelpful that the global manufacturing sector has been more or less stagnating since 2023. “A look at the sectors shows that production has fallen in the important intermediate goods sector and growth has slowed in the capital goods sector. In the consumer goods sector, there has been only a slight increase in output. It would not be surprising if the series of rising manufacturing output, which has already lasted most of the year, were to come to an end in the coming months. However, this does not necessarily herald a downward trend. This is because expansionary fiscal policy is likely to take effect in the first half of 2026 at the latest, stimulating demand for machinery for the construction industry and for defence equipment, among other things. “Manufacturing companies continue to reduce their workforces. This has been going on for almost two-and-a-half years. Given the increase in production observed this year, the result is likely to be higher labour productivity, which in itself should also contribute to the international competitiveness of companies. However, the decline in orders from abroad does not reflect this, because competitors from other countries may not be sitting idle either.” This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior 48.8No change to the initial print as the French manufacturing sector contracted further in November. New orders continued to fall and of note, employment was reduced for the first time since April. Adding to that, price pressures also intensified so that's something to be wary about. HCOB notes that:"French Manufacturing conditions remained weak in November, even as exports rebounded. The headline HCOB PMI slipped to 47.8, from 48.8 in October, confirming the disappointing flash estimate. The downward trend is particularly evident in the demand-related sub-indices, leading production volumes to deteriorate further and at the fastest pace since February. Order books showed little improvement — only foreign orders managed to cross into growth territory — highlighting persistent weak domestic demand. "This weakness is mirrored in purchasing activity and inventory dynamics. Companies are scaling back input purchases while simultaneously reducing inventories, signalling lower production requirements. Payroll numbers, which embarked on a brief growth stint between May and October, fell back into contraction, pointing to a net fall in employment in November. "Price development adds further pressure. The HCOB PMI price data indicate that manufacturers face intense competition, containing output prices. Against this backdrop, margins are likely to compress. "The negative trend spans all three sub-sectors. While investment goods conditions have been declining for several months, momentum in consumer goods turned negative after three months of improvement. Interestingly, French manufacturers reported a marked improvement in future expectations, which contrasts with the prevailing weakness in current conditions." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior was 49.9Key findings:Renewed growth in total new orders, supported by improved export sales Slight increase in output, but employment and purchasing fall Strongest cost inflation in three yearsComment:Commenting on the PMI data, Nils Müller, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “November brought a welcome rebound for Italy’s manufacturing sector. The headline PMI climbed back into expansionary territory to 50.6, up from 49.9 in October, marking the strongest improvement since March 2023, though the overall pace of growth remains marginal. “The headline gain was driven primarily by a renewed increase in new orders, which rose at the fastest rate in more than three-and-a-half years. Export demand provided a notable boost, ending a five-month run of decline and registering its sharpest rise since early 2022. However, production growth lagged behind, with output expanding only slightly and consumer goods makers reporting a drop in activity. “Despite a notable improvement in order books, manufacturers remained cautious on staffing, opting for dismissals and refraining from replacing voluntary leavers. Purchasing activity also fell, as companies leaned on existing inventories to meet production needs. Supply chain conditions remained strained, with delivery times lengthening moderately. Meanwhile, cost pressures intensified sharply, with input prices rising at the fastest rate in three years, driven by higher raw material costs. While selling prices increased, the pass-through was limited, pointing to margin compression. “Italian manufacturers stayed optimistic in November, anticipating improved conditions over the next 12 months. Hopes of a rebound in global markets and new customer inflows supported confidence, albeit sentiment eased slightly compared to the previous month. Overall, November’s data signal a fragile return to growth for the Italian manufacturing sector, supported by export-led demand but tempered by persistent cost inflation and cautious hiring.” This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior 52.1Spain's industrial sector maintained growth conditions in November, albeit at a slower pace than the month before. Output and new orders both continued to expand at a solid pace, with the outlook keeping more positive overall. So, it's still a modestly strong showing by the manufacturing side of things. HCOB notes that:“The Spanish manufacturing sector extended its growth trajectory in November, albeit at a slightly slower pace. The HCOB headline PMI eased from 52.1 to 51.5 with growth of production and new orders softening and thereby setting the trend for the month. Spain thus appears to be converging towards broader eurozone dynamics, where the Flash manufacturing PMI also signalled slowdown. “The weakening in international trade seems to weigh on the Spanish manufacturing industry. Over the past six months, domestic new orders increased constantly, while export orders declined in four out of these six months, as the respective index posted below the growth threshold. Panellists corroborate this trend with anecdotal evidence, highlighting weaker international demand. This imbalance has intensified competition for sales, prompting firms to cut prices. “Interestingly, manufacturers cut their workforce numbers for the third consecutive month, although operating conditions remained broadly favourable. Net layoffs also contrast with rising purchasing activity, suggesting efforts to keep pace with production and order volumes. The caution around hiring reflects the fragile macro environment, characterized by weak economic growth in Europe, competitive pressure from China as well as trade barriers and tense geopolitics. Nevertheless, Spanish manufacturers are optimistic about their future output, as business expectations remained stable slightly above the long-term average.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Eurostoxx -0.4%Germany DAX -0.5%France CAC 40 -0.5%UK FTSE -0.3%Spain IBEX -0.2%Italy FTSE MIB -0.5%The drop here matches up with the mood in US futures, with S&P 500 futures lower by 0.6% currently. Tech shares are leading losses in US futures, with Nasdaq futures down 0.8% at the moment. With month-end flows and the Thanksgiving holidays out of the way, market players are back to resuming the caution that we saw from two weeks back. While not the main thing, a more hawkish BOJ today is also a bit of a culprit. That not to mention the intensified selling in cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin now down to $86,640. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Exoects BOJ to conduct appropriate monetary policy to sustainably, stably hit inflation targetGovernment expects BOJ to continue with appropriate monetary policy operationsInflation focus should be driven by wage hikes rather than cost-push inflationA bit of a push back from the government here after Kuroda's remarks from earlier today. USD/JPY is keeping at the lows though, hovering around 155.40 - down 0.5% currently. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than the Swiss Retail Sales and the final PMI readings for the UK and the major Eurozone economies. None of these releases is going to change anything for the respective central banks, so the reaction will likely be muted. In the American session, the main highlight will be the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. The consensus sees an uptick to 49.0 vs 48.7 prior. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to a four-month low in November but "still signalled an improvement in factory business conditions". The agency added that "production growth dipped slightly but remained solid by recent standards, and employment rose at the fastest rate since August. However, new order book growth weakened from October’s strong reading and therefore weighed on the PMI. In contrast, a greater lengthening of lead times acted as a stronger positive influence. Inventories of inputs were meanwhile largely unchanged."The market is pricing a 90% chance of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, so the data is unlikely to change anything unless we get some big deviations. What comes next will depend on the Fed's forward guidance next week and the following NFP/CPI reports.Central bank speakers:15:30 GMT/10:30 ET - BoE's Dhingra (dove - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

German DAX futures -0.5%UK FTSE futures -0.2%This comes as US futures are marked lower with S&P 500 futures down by 0.7%. As month-end flows and the Thanksgiving holidays are now out of the way, we're starting to see caution return as market players brace for the final few weeks in wrapping up the 2025 year. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

TMGM, a global forex and CFD trading broker, today announced the launch of its 11th Global Trading Competition, featuring a prize pool of USD 671,500, the highest in the company's competition history.The 2025–2026 edition introduces two new trading categories: the Crypto Group and the Indices Group, expanding the competition beyond traditional forex and providing traders with more specialized avenues to showcase their expertise. These additions mark a significant evolution in TMGM’s flagship competition series, strengthening its position as a key annual event in the company’s global trader engagement calendar.Registration opens on December 1, 2025, and closes on February 15, 2026. The competition will run for three months, from December 1, 2025, to March 1, 2026.The record-breaking USD 671,500 prize pool underscores TMGM’s commitment to rewarding trading excellence and supporting a diverse global community. The new categories further enhance this year’s structure by broadening the instruments available for competition and accommodating a wider range of trading styles.The Crypto Group is tailored for participants focused on digital assets, while the Indices Group appeals to traders analysing broader market movements. This structure ensures that competitors can engage in markets aligned with their expertise.Participants can register through the TMGM Client Portal or the official Competition Landing Page. The competition is open to eligible clients worldwide, subject to regional restrictions.Building on the legacy of previous editions that have attracted participants from over 150 countries, the 11th Global Trading Competition continues to deliver meaningful, competitive, and rewarding opportunities for traders worldwide. The enhanced prize pool and diversified categories reinforce the event’s status as one of the most anticipated annual contests within the global trading community.Full competition details, rules, and registration information are available at https://portal.tmgm.com/marketing?campaign_code=ZXZ0Zm0xMXRjMjU=.About TMGMTMGM (Trademax Global Markets) is a leading global multi-asset brokerage providing CFD trading across forex, indices, equities, commodities, and more. Trusted by clients in over 150 countries and regulated across multiple jurisdictions, TMGM offers secure and transparent access to the financial markets through advanced technology and institutional-grade liquidity.Headquartered in Sydney, Australia, TMGM provides a seamless trading experience that prioritises speed, precision, and performance. The firm supports traders of all experience levels, from first-time investors to seasoned professionals, by providing intuitive platforms, advanced analytics, and a robust suite of educational resources.Whether through user-friendly tools that simplify the trading journey or in-depth insights tailored for professional strategies, TMGM is committed to democratizing access to global markets. The firm empowers individuals to trade with clarity and confidence by combining technology, transparency, and continuous learning.TMGM is also redefining the role of financial brands through strategic partnerships with global sports and entertainment organizations. These collaborations strengthen brand resonance, promote financial literacy, and allow TMGM to engage meaningfully with a broader audience beyond the trading world.Risk WarningTrading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs involves a high level of risk and may not be suitable for every investor. Leverage can amplify both gains and losses. Before trading, carefully assess your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance to ensure a well-informed decision. You may lose some or all of your initial investment, and you should never trade with funds you cannot afford to lose. Ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice if necessary.Geographic RestrictionsThis competition is not available to clients from Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, or the United Kingdom. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

In case your trading body clock hasn't adjusted yet, let this serve as a bit of a reminder. It may be the first week of a new month but it's one of those rare occasions where we won't see the US non-farm payrolls data get released. And we have the longest government shutdown in US history in part to thank.The delay saw the October numbers not be published and now those will be combined together with the November numbers but only due to be released on 16 December instead. The most significant point about that date is that it will be six days after the Fed's final FOMC meeting for the year.Is it all a ruse though that the BLS is timing it so as to not reflect "better" numbers that might get in the way of a Fed rate hike next week? Well, it wouldn't be the most surprising thing.The only thing that they have revealed so far is that the delay in reporting has seen the establishment survey collection rate move up to a higher-than-usual 80.2% as businesses self-reported electronically during the shutdown. For some context, low survey collection rates have accounted for major revisions to payrolls data in the past.Circling back to the Fed though, markets are pricing in ~92% odds of a rate cut for December now. So, that's the main thing to watch out for and if there will be any further communication by policymakers in guiding the path for interest rates going into next year. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

That's nothing new but serves as another reminder again that they aren't going to be doing anything as we approach the turn of the year. Just in case you needed another cue to be remembered of that. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level. The large expiries there could act as a bit more of a price magnet in locking price action before rolling off later in the day. In other words, it could keep price movements holding thereabouts in the European session with little else to work with for now.But overall, do keep an eye out on the risk mood in case that starts to spill over more meaningfully into major currencies. It hasn't been too impactful in the past weeks but still, always something to be mindful about. And for today, the risk mood is looking more cautious with S&P 500 futures down 0.7% and Bitcoin dipping back under $90,000.That could flow back into safety bids in FX if the selloff intensifies in the session ahead.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Risk aversion is starting to strike again to start the new week/month as equities are being hit hard alongside Bitcoin once again. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.8% with Nasdaq futures down 1.0% so that will sap quite a bit of the energy from last week's rebound. By some miracle, the S&P 500 even managed to post a positive monthly close for November but concerns surrounding the AI bubble are not going away just yet. Of course, Trump's erratic policy swings are also not helping.As for Bitcoin, a quick wave of selling sees price break back under $90,000 and that puts sellers back in near-term control now:Pairing the selloff in the cryptocurrency alongside that in equities, it is setting up for a more cautious and risk averse mood as we look to greet European traders later today. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Then that would force us to make a rapid adjustmentWe want to make policy decision in December by looking at wage information as well as other dataA mix of the government's proactive fiscal policy and BOJ adjustment of monetary support will help achieve sustainable economic growth path for JapanThe uncertainties from before have subsided significantly as compared to a few months agoWant to elaborate more on future rate hike path once we get to 0.75% on ratesWell, well, well. This is a refreshing change of pace in commentary. Is Ueda trying to be more explicit in teeing up a rate hike for this month? The optics would've been better had they moved in October though to be honest. Because now when Takaichi has already laid out her own plans, it doesn't seem to tie together nicely with the government's initiatives. But hey, better late than never. USD/JPY continues to hold lower on the day, down 0.4% to 155.45 currently. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.