The Financial Times reports that Chinese regulators have been discussing ways to permit limited access to H200 chips. No final decision had been made yet.For context, Trump yesterday announced that the US will allow Nvidia to sell H200 chips to China. I don't see this as something new as China has been implementing restrictions on foreign AI chips like Nvidia, AMD and so on in state-funded data centers to boost domestic tech as they compete with the US.Full FT article here This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

AI offers tools to process vast datasets. These can help, among other things, detect previously unseen patterns and improve predictive accuracyMachine learning could identify inflationary pressures, labor-market shifts or structural breaks in the economy fasterThe technology would not substitute for human expertiseFor more hereNagel didn't touch on monetary policy, but he highlighted how AI could help central banks identify problems in the economy faster and therefore improve policymaking. Much like technology helped improving inventory management for companies and smooth the inventory cycles. There's lots of fear-mongering going on about AI replacing humans, but I've been personally seeing it just as a new tool to improve productivity. Technology has always changed our lives and the labour market, but it didn't lead to high unemployment. People were fearing machines taking their jobs (see the Luddites) but eventually it just created new jobs. Things change and we keep on adapting. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

We are seeing the JPY free-falling again across the board today. The Japanese long-term yields continue to hit record highs and that is of course drawing attention from Japanese officials as borrowing costs rise. Governor Ueda this morning noted that long-term rates have been rising rather rapidly recently and added that the BoJ would increase JGB purchases in case long-term yields make abrupt moves. The last comment is not exactly bullish for the JPY.Despite the incoming rate hike and constant jawboning from Japanese officials, the JPY remains weak. Part of the problem could be that the BoJ waited far too long and it's now looking to deliver a cautious rate hike right when other major central banks are shifting to a hawkish stance.The market has also already priced in a rate hike this month and at very least another in 2026, so it's hard to see the BoJ outhawking the market pricing, leaving limited room for JPY appreciation on a hawkish repricing.As I see it, the JPY is now more at the mercy of other major central banks' stances. For example, if things go south with the US data or a potentially hawkish Fed triggers a risk-off wave, then we could see the JPY gaining some ground as the market will price in more rate cuts further down the curve for the Fed.Watch out also for Japanese officials stepping up their jawboning with final warnings or even rate checks. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Eurostoxx +0.11%Germany DAX +0.21%France CAC 40 +0.13%UK FTSE -0.08%Spain IBEX +0.14%Italy FTSE MIB +0.01%Yesterday's losses were eventually pared as markets recovered after some brief weakness. What might keep a lid on gains is the risk of a hawkish Fed's decision tomorrow. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior €15.3 billionExports +0.1% vs -0.5% expectedPrior +1.4%Imports -1.2% vs -0.5% expectedPrior +3.1%Full report hereThe German trade surplus expanded in October as exports rose by 0.1% on the month while imports fell by 1.2%. This is not market-moving data and won't change anything for the ECB. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

EUR/USD1.1760 (EUR 1.62 bn)1.1600 (EUR 1.20 bn)1.1500 (EUR 1.21 bn)USD/JPY157.00 (US$ 325.47 mn)155.50 (US$ 319.96 mn)GBP/USD1.3400 (GBP 291.94 mn)1.3250 (GBP 209.81 mn)USD/CHF0.8040 (US$ 249.85 mn)USD/CAD1.3950 (US$ 633.00 mn)AUD/USD0.6635 (AUD 949.50 mn)0.6500 (AUD 524.35 mn)NZD/USD0.5775 (NZD 148.91 mn)EUR/GBP0.8790 (EUR 329.71 mn)Justin prepared a weekly overview before leaving for the holidays here. For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Won't comment on talks with UedaBoJ needs to communicate with the government, but specifics of monetary policy should be left with BoJExpects BoJ to carry out appropriate monetary policies to achieve its price targetGovernment bears ultimate responsibility for macroeconomic policyI feel like she wants to calm the markets by stressing that BoJ is independent in setting monetary policy. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Won't comment on specifics on interest ratesLong-term rates are rising rather rapidly recentlyWill increase JGB purchases if long-term rates make abrupt movesWill pay close attention to market movesReal interest rates are significantly lowWill adjust degree of monetary easing if economic, prices trends move in line with forecastsGathering information on companies' stance on wages for next yearLabour market is tightening, increasing upward pressure on wages and pricesBy adjusting degree of monetary policy, we can ensure stability of financial markets and realise price stabilityThere's really nothing new here from Ueda. The market already knows the BoJ is going to hike at the upcoming meeting with the probabilities now standing around 76%. This makes it a done deal because they certainly won't want to deliver a dovish surprise by keeping rates steady. In 2026, the market is fully pricing in another 25 bps hike. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

In the European session, we don't have anything on the agenda other than the German trade balance report. Goes without saying that the data won't matter at all for the market or the ECB. In the American session, the highlights include the weekly ADP data and the US Job Openings report. We had three negative weekly ADP releases recently which culminated with a soft monthly report last week. The ADP data suggests that labour market conditions are yet to change and the cooling is still underway. We will also get the October US Job Openings report. The consensus sees further cooling to 7.150M vs 7.227M prior. The Job Openings is a two-month old data but it will give us a bit more information on the labour market conditions in October. At this point, I would focus more on the Fed's forward guidance tomorrow and the NFP/CPI reports next week. These will be the most important events and potentially the most market-moving ones. Central bank speakers:08:00 GMT/03:00 ET - ECB's Nagel (neutral - voter)09:00 GMT/04:00 ET - BoJ Governor Ueda (neutral - voter)14:15 GMT/09:15 ET - BoE's Members at Treasury Select Committee19:10 GMT/14:10 ET - RBNZ Governor Breman This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Will make appropriate economic, fiscal decisions at appropriate timing while taking into account interest rates, FX and pricesWatching market moves closelyImportant for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentalsDifficult to single out impact of fiscal policy on interest rates, FX as they are determined by various factorsFeels like Japanese officials are really getting worried about the JPY weakness despite the incoming BoJ rate hike. I think part of the problem is that they've waited for too long and are now considering rate hikes right when the others are shifting to a hawkish stance too. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

RBA decision: Case rate set at 3.60% vs 3.60% expectedRBA's Bullock: Discussed circumstances in which we might have to tightenFull text of the RBA decision on Dec 9, 2025Australian November NAB business conditions +7 vs +9 priorUK BRC November retail sales +1.2% y/y vs +1.5% priorTrump threatens Mexico tariffs due water treaty violationsMarkets:Gold flatWTI crude oil down 21-cents to $58.67US 10-year yields up 0.4 bps to 4.17%S&P 500 futures up 0.1%Nikkei up 0.2%AUD leads, CHF lagsThe RBA decision was the main event of the day and it put some life into the FX market. The kneejerk was lower in AUD/USD but only for a minute as it quickly rebounded to 0.6625. The market was perhaps looking for more of a hawkish signal that wasn't there in the statement but it certainly appeared with Bullock, who said the board envisioned staying on a long pause or hiking and that cuts weren't envisioned. She also singled out the upcoming meeting in February as one where they will be looking carefully at inflation data, though the market still only sees a 25% chance of a hike.Further out, we now have nearly 2 rate hikes priced in for 2026 and that's led to a climb in AUD/USD to 0.6640, about 20 pips above the levels before she spoke.Elsewhere, we are seeing some USD/JPY strength kick in as the pair trips stops above 156.00 and touches the best levels since Dec 2. Notably, that Dec high of of 156.18 is in range and Treasury yields are higher again.Aside from that, the ranges have been tight in FX and global equities. Gold perked up earlier but couldn't get through $4200 and has now slipped to $4185. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

If data suggests inflation not slowing, that will be considered at February board meetingBoard wants to give signal that risks have tilted to the upsideThe RBA has officially turned hawkish today and opened the door for rate hikes. That is of course conditional to the data with Governor Bullock stressing the January quarterly inflation report.Reading between the lines, it feels like they could deliver a rate hike at the February meeting already if inflation surprises to the upside again. Of course, the bigger the surprise the stronger the chances for an earlier rate hike. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Did not explicitly consider case for a rate hike this meetingDiscussed circumstances in which we might have to tightenDid discuss what they might have to do if rates need to go upNeed to be cautious on monthly CPI series as yetInflation and jobs data will be important for February meeting Would not put timing on any future move, will be meeting by meetingWe will be looking at quarterly inflation numbersIf inflation looks to be persistent, it will raise some questions for policyIt looks like more rate cuts are not neededBoard does not think the downside risks have abated, upside risks are greaterThe February meeting is the next one as the RBA goes on summer holiday. Needless to say the upcoming data will be critical.AUD/USD jumped on her comments.More:RBA will not react to one economic numberOutlook is for an extended pause or rate hikes, would not put a probability on itRate cuts are not on the horizonLooking for clues in underlying inflation on whether pick up was temporaryThe board is uncomfortable with where inflation isIf data shows that inflation is not slowing, that will be considered at the February RBA meetingShe is certainly putting February in play but the market sees this as a scenario where February is where she would hint at a hike for the March meeting. That second meeting is now 45% priced for a hike. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The statement was out earlier and Bullock will speak soon:At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.60 per cent.While inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, it has picked up more recently. The Board’s judgement is that some of the recent increase in underlying inflation was due to temporary factors and there is uncertainty about how much signal to take from the monthly CPI data given it is a new data series. Nevertheless, the data do suggest some signs of a more broadly based pick-up in inflation, part of which may be persistent and will bear close monitoring.Economic activity continues to recover. Growth in private demand has strengthened, driven by both consumption and investment. Activity and prices in the housing market are also continuing to pick up. Financial conditions have eased since the beginning of the year, credit is readily available to both households and businesses and the effects of earlier interest rate reductions are yet to flow through fully to demand, prices and wages. On the other hand, money market interest rates and government bond yields have risen more recently.Various indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain a little tight. The unemployment rate has risen gradually over the past year and employment growth has slowed. However, measures of labour underutilisation remain at low rates, surveyed measures of capacity utilisation are above their long-run average and business surveys and liaison continue to suggest that a significant share of firms are experiencing difficulty sourcing labour. Wages growth, as measured by the Wage Price Index, has eased from its peak but broader measures of wages continue to show strong growth and growth in unit labour costs remains high.There are uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation and the extent to which monetary policy remains restrictive. On the domestic side, the pick-up in momentum has been stronger than anticipated, particularly in the private sector. If this continues, it is likely to add to capacity pressures. Uncertainty in the global economy remains significant but so far there has been minimal impact on overall growth and trade in Australia’s major trading partners.DecisionThe recent data suggest the risks to inflation have tilted to the upside, but it will take a little longer to assess the persistence of inflationary pressures. Private demand is recovering. Labour market conditions still appear a little tight but further modest easing is expected. The Board therefore judged that it was appropriate to remain cautious, updating its view of the outlook as the data evolve.The Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions. In doing so, it will pay close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome.Today’s policy decision was unanimous. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The Nikkei is up 0.2% in morning trade in what would be the second day of gains. We are pushing towards the top half of the range over the past month but don't appear to be in a hurry to get there. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 3.60%The decision was unanimous The last cut was in AugustThe next decision is Feb 3Highlights from the statement:Recent data suggests risks to inflation have tilted to the upside, but it will take "a little longer" to assesses the persistence of inflation pressuresVarious indicators suggest that labor market conditions remain a little tightBoard will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisionsEconomic activity continues to recoverUncertainty in the global economy remains significant but so far there has been minimal impact on overall growth and trade in Australia's major trading partnersIs this the bottom in rates? The market is pricing in a hike by August 2026.AUD/USD fell about 15 pips on the headlines but quickly recovered, suggesting the market was worried about something more hawkish. A bit of the March hike probability has faded, down to about 27% from 33%.The upcoming inflation figures are going to be major AUD movers. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Gambling, sports betting, crypto speculation and now online trading are part of a bigger trend of deregulation of vice and the lack of predictable pathways to succeed in the modern world.Here is a great essay from John Ehrett on what has young men struggling so badly and turning towards so many high risk behviours. The argument is that the economy is increasingly random. It argues that for Gen Z men, the link between effort and reward has broken, turning life into a low-probability trade where many are checking out and others are taking wild risks for a chance at a comfortable life.College admissions are now opaque and random, and there's a deep sense that it's rigged by alumni and other connectionsHiring and resume keywords are an algorithmic black boxDating apps have turned romance into a high-frequency trading environmentI'm not sure I agree with some of his solutions but the system needs to stop feeling like a slot machine. The "social contract" has stopped working for young people and it can't last. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The RBA decision is at 2:30 pm Sydney time or 0330 GMT or 10:30 pm in New York. There is a news conference an hour later and that will be critical.I find the RBA to be a critical central bank to watch as it's at the leading edge of the large group of central banks that cut rates following the inflation spike but has now found a bottom. The next move -- it appears -- will be to start hiking rates. The timing of that is what has my attention and here is what the market sees in terms of probabilities.Feb 3 (next meeting): 16% chance of a hikeMarch 17: 33% chance of a hikeMay 5: 53% chance of a hikeJune 16: 78% chance of a hikeAug 11: 1 hike fully priced in, small chance of a secondDec 8: 1 hike fully priced in, 60% chance of a secondIf the RBA and Bullock are hawkish, look for those numbers to creep higher, though it's premature to expect any kind of strong short-term signal. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It's hard to believe that Charlie Munger died two years ago but with the passing of time, his advice remains some of the best stuff ever said about investing.Here is a great one:"It's amazing how intelligent it is to spend some time just sitting. A lot of people are way too active."Along the same lines:"If we've got one thing we can do more of, we're not interested in anything that's not better than that. That simplifies life a great deal."The barrage of information in today's world and the low cost of trading lead to one of the great investing vices: Over-trading.And if you want to go back 100 years before Munger, here is the advice from Larry Livermore:“It was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was my sitting.” “Got that? My sitting tight!”Find something you have great conviction in and at a good price. Buy it and wait. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The latest yuan fix is out. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.