Summary:Treasury says Bessent flagged undesirability of excessive FX volatility Bessent stressed “sound” monetary policy formulation and communication Messaging aligns with G7 principles on market-determined rates, with room to counter disorderly moves Context: yen weakness linked to political uncertainty and fiscal-stimulus expectations Market read-through: reinforces verbal-intervention framework; actual trend still hinges on rates and policy pathThe U.S. Treasury said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent raised concerns about “excessive” exchange-rate volatility in a meeting with his Japanese counterpart, stressing that large, disorderly currency swings are undesirable and can undermine economic and financial stability. In the same readout, Treasury said Bessent emphasised the importance of sound monetary policy formulation and clear communication, linking policy credibility to anchoring expectations and limiting destabilising FX moves. The language echoes long-standing G7-style principles, that currencies should be market-determined, but that authorities retain scope to respond to excessive volatility. The timing matters. The yen has been under pressure amid renewed political uncertainty and expectations that Japan’s government could lean into fiscal support, a mix that can widen rate differentials and keep the currency offered, particularly if markets worry policy signals are becoming less predictable. Against that backdrop, a U.S. statement foregrounding “sound” policy and communication reads as a subtle nudge toward stability: keep guidance coherent, avoid surprises, and minimise the risk that investors see Japan’s macro mix as a one-way bet against the yen. For markets, the immediate FX implication is less about an imminent action and more about permission structure. When Washington and Tokyo use shared language around “excess volatility,” it can be read as lowering the political hurdle for Japan to lean harder on verbal warnings, or, at the margins, intervention, if moves become disorderly. Near term, that can provide the yen some support via positioning risk; beyond the initial reaction, sustained yen strength would still likely require either calmer politics, firmer BOJ normalisation expectations, or a shift in global rate differentials. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Trump signs semiconductor proclamation citing national security concerns 25% tariff imposed on select advanced computing chips (H200, MI325X cited) Exemptions carved out for U.S. tech supply needs and domestic buildout-related imports White House flags broader semiconductor and derivative-product tariffs may follow Sits alongside the week’s critical-minerals security push and reshoring agendaPresident Donald Trump signed a proclamation targeting semiconductor imports on national security grounds, imposing a 25% tariff on a narrow set of advanced computing chips, with the White House naming products such as Nvidia’s H200 and AMD’s MI325X. The White House framed the move as an early step in a broader effort to secure strategically important technology supply chains and reduce reliance on external choke points for frontier computing. The fact sheet also flagged that broader tariffs on semiconductors and derivative products may follow in the near future, explicitly tying tariff policy to incentives for domestic manufacturing. Two exemptions are doing a lot of work here. The administration said the 25% levy will not apply to chips imported to support the U.S. technology supply chain, and will also not apply where imports are linked to strengthening domestic manufacturing capacity for semiconductor derivatives. In effect, the policy aims to penalise “non-essential” or strategic destination flows while trying to avoid hitting inputs viewed as necessary for U.S. buildout. Why now? This fits with a wider security-and-industrial-policy push that has been gathering pace, including the critical-minerals supply emphasis we discussed earlier in the week. Semiconductors and critical minerals are increasingly being treated as two sides of the same resilience agenda: minerals secure the upstream, chips secure the downstream. For markets, the immediate read-through is renewed policy uncertainty around chip trade flows and pricing power at the high end of AI compute. The exemptions soften the broadest “cost shock” fears, but the White House’s reference to potential wider tariffs keeps headline risk elevated, particularly for firms and countries embedded in cross-border chip assembly and re-export chains. ---I've added this as an explainer. Is it helpful? Let me know in the comments please. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Trump orders Commerce and USTR to negotiate deals to reduce reliance on imported processed critical mineralsWhite House flags foreign mineral processing as a national security vulnerabilitySection 232 authority invoked to monitor and potentially restrict importsBuilds on earlier Bessent-led talks on securing mineral supply chainsSignals tougher, security-driven U.S. trade posture ahead of electionsPresident Donald Trump has ordered the Commerce Department and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative to begin negotiating agreements with foreign suppliers aimed at reducing America’s reliance on imported processed critical minerals, citing rising national security risks tied to global supply chains.In a statement from the White House, the administration warned that U.S. dependence on overseas processing of rare earths, lithium, cobalt and other strategically important minerals represents a growing vulnerability for the defence, energy and advanced technology sectors. While the United States possesses significant raw mineral resources, officials argue that the concentration of processing capacity abroad, particularly in geopolitically sensitive jurisdictions, leaves critical industries exposed to supply disruptions and coercive trade practices.Trump invoked his authority under Section 232 of U.S. trade law, granting the administration powers to monitor, restrict or adjust imports deemed harmful to national security. The move allows the White House to override or amend previous trade decisions if necessary, with a stated aim of strengthening domestic supply chains and safeguarding military readiness.The announcement follows meetings earlier this week involving Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, where critical mineral supply security was flagged as a priority issue. Those discussions underscored Washington’s concern that clean energy investment, defence production and next-generation technologies are increasingly constrained by mineral processing bottlenecks outside U.S. control.While officials framed the directive as a long-term industrial strategy rather than an immediate trade action, the use of Section 232 signals a willingness to escalate policy tools if negotiations fail. It also reinforces the administration’s broader shift toward economic nationalism, linking trade, security and industrial policy more explicitly as the U.S. heads into an election year. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI), officially known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI), measures changes over time in the prices that domestic producers receive for the goods they sell. The index is compiled and published by the Bank of Japan, and is designed to capture price movements earlier in the supply chain than consumer-facing inflation gauges.Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the prices households pay for a basket of goods and services, the CGPI focuses solely on prices charged by companies. As such, it provides insight into cost pressures facing producers rather than consumers. Movements in the index can therefore act as an early signal of inflationary forces building within the economy, particularly if firms attempt to pass rising costs on to end users.The CGPI is constructed using a broad basket of domestically produced goods that reflects the structure of Japan’s industrial economy. This includes raw materials such as metals and chemicals, semi-finished goods, and a range of finished products. Each category is assigned a weight based on its relative importance to overall economic activity, allowing the index to capture shifts across different stages of production.However, the CGPI has several limitations worth noting. It does not adjust for quality improvements over time, which means price increases may sometimes overstate underlying inflation. In addition, the index only covers domestically produced goods and excludes imported items, limiting its usefulness in assessing external price shocks such as exchange-rate moves or global commodity swings.From a market perspective, the CGPI is closely watched for its implications for both consumer inflation and currency dynamics. A firmer-than-expected reading could support the view that pipeline inflation remains alive, potentially lending the yen short-term support. However, given the broader backdrop of expected fiscal stimulus, political uncertainty, and speculation over an early election, any yen strength following the release may struggle to persist once the initial reaction fades.This snapshot from the investingLive economic data calendar.The times in the left-most column are GMT, subtract 5 hours for the US Eastern time The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US November retail sales +0.6% vs +0.4% expectedUS November PPI final demand Y/Y +3.0% vs +2.7% expectedUS Supreme Court doesn't issue decision on tariffsBeige Book: Overall activity increased at slight-to-modest pace in most districtsFedspeak recap: Odds of a January or March rate cut dwindleEIA weekly US crude oil inventories +3391K vs -1702K expectedUS Oct business inventories +0.3% vs +0.2% expectedUS existing home sales 4.35m vs 4.21m expectedUS Q3 current account -226B vs -238B expectedTrump appears to have decided on a military strike against Iran - ReutersMarkets:Gold and silver hit fresh recordsWTI crude oil down $1.15 to $60.06US 10-year yields down 2.7 bps to 4.14%Bitcoin up 3.8%S&P 500 down 0.7%JPY leads, USD lagsEyes were on the Supreme Court today but we didn't get a tariff decision. There was some trepidation in markets ahead of time with stocks sliding but when no ruling was issued, there was a sizeable pop in stocks. Unfortunately, it slowly faded over the day and the S&P 500 was down more than 1% at the lows, with megacap tech names and financials dragging.Gold and silver were in the spotlight once again with Iran and potential US attacks as a possible catalyst. Beyond that, gold did a nice turnabout to highs after some selling midway through yesterday's US session. That was halted in Asia and there was a steady march higher today and a 7% further pop in silver to $93 for the first time ever.The FX market was less action-packed as the US dollar mostly slid. The headline on the retail sales report was a touch better but revisions were lower and the core components a drag. Auto sales flattered the headline while better measures of consumer comfort were less-enthusiastic. Comments from financials on the US consumer and lending outlook were positive but that didn't stop a round of profit taking, including a 4% fall in Bank of America shares. The earnings continue on Thursday.Oil was hit with a huge build in US gasoline inventories for the second week but with turmoil potentially coming in Iran, the crowded short in crude were getting out of the way in a squeeze as high as $62.36. However later in the day, Trump said that executions had stopped and there was a report that a high-profile one had been postponed. That was seen as de-escalatio and oil quickly fell more than $2/barrel. That's the spot to watch in the day ahead. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It has been a deluge of Fedspeak today but it hasn't provided much clarity. The market is pricing in just at 9% chance of a cut at the Jan 28 meeting as we head towards the blackout. For March it's at 26% and for April it's at 60%. , But if you’re looking for a unified front from the central bank, you won't find it today. We’ve heard from Kashkari, Bostic, Paulson, and Miran in rapid succession, and the signals on the rate path for 2026 are clashing but clearer if you look closely.Neel Kashkari is leading the charge for patience. In an interview with the NYT and comments on the wires, he was explicit: it is "way too soon" to cut rates. He argues that interest rates should be held steady this month, citing an economy that is "confusing" but overall quite resilient. While he admits inflation is heading down, he remains wary of cutting too early given elevated price levels. He also took time to defend the independence of the central bank and Chair Powell.Raphael Bostic is in Kashkari's corner as he approaches his February 28 retirement. He noted that the inflation challenge "has not been won yet" and that the economy is likely to get stronger as we go through 2026. His takeaway is that a "passive posture" isn't appropriate right now; policy still needs to be restrictive.On the other side, we have Paulson and Miran striking a decidedly softer tone. Paulson describes the baseline economic outlook as "pretty benign" and explicitly sees further rate cuts later this year if forecasts are met. She characterizes current monetary policy as only "a little restrictive." Meanwhile, Miran did his usual song and dovish dance. This time he argued that deregulation acts as a positive productivity shock that should put downward pressure on prices—another reason, in his view, to cut rates. His term is over at the end of the month but will stay on the board until a successor is confirmed.Here are the key headlines:KASHKARI: WAY TOO SOON TO CUT RATESPAULSON: SEES FURTHER RATE CUTS LATER THIS YEAR IF FORECAST METBOSTIC: THE INFLATION CHALLENGE HAS NOT BEEN WON YETKASHKARI: INTEREST RATES SHOULD BE HELD STEADY THIS MONTHMIRAN: DEREGULATION SHOULD PUT DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON PRICES, JUSTIFYING RATE CUTSPAULSON: BASELINE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IS ‘PRETTY BENIGN’KASHKARI: IF MONETARY POLICY IS REALLY SO TIGHT, WE SHOULD NOT SEE AN ECONOMY EXHIBITING SUCH RESILIENCEBOSTIC: AS WE GO THROUGH 2026 THE ECONOMY IS LIKELY TO GET STRONGERPAULSON: INFLATION SHOULD BE AROUND 2% RUN RATE BY YEAR ENDKASHKARI: TARIFFS HAVEN'T BEEN THE GUT PUNCH MANY FEARED This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was -3832KGasoline +8977K vs +3565K expDistillates -29K vs +512K expThat's a mammoth gasoline build on top of another huge one last week. It will be tough to keep oil prices up with that much product in the system.Private oil inventories released late yesterday:Crude +5270KGasoline +8230KDistillates +4340KGiven the private survey, the big build in the official numbers isn't a huge surprise .That said, earlier oil gains have faded with WTI at $61.69 from a high of $62.10.The Energy Information Administration (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status Report is widely considered the definitive gauge of US crude oil and refined product inventories. Released every Wednesday at 10:30 AM ET, the data provides a comprehensive overview of the current supply and demand dynamics within the United States, the world's largest oil consumer.While the American Petroleum Institute (API) releases private inventory data the evening prior, the EIA report is the official government record and typically commands greater market attention. Traders and analysts closely monitor the headline crude oil inventory changes—categorized as "builds" (increases) or "draws" (decreases)—to assess market balance.However, a holistic view requires looking beyond the headline crude number. Market participants scrutinize stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub (the delivery point for WTI futures) as well as refined product inventories, specifically gasoline and distillates. These metrics offer critical insights into consumer demand and refinery utilization rates.Given its scope, the release often triggers immediate price volatility in energy markets. It serves as a key fundamental input for assessing whether the market is oversupplied or tightening, influencing price direction for WTI and Brent crude benchmarks.Following the EIA report, the market will look to OPEC and the US administration for hints about upcoming energy policy. Venezuela remains in focus as Trump tries to boost production quickly. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs was potentially due today but four other decisions were rendered, and no word on tariffs. No other decision days have been announced for this week.The IEEPA is a 1977 law that gives the President broad powers to regulate commerce after declaring a national emergency. Historically, it’s been the "sanctions button"—used to freeze assets of terrorists or rogue states. But the Trump administration dusted it off to impose sweeping tariffs, effectively using it as a trade weapon.The legal battle (specifically cases like Trump v. V.O.S. Selections) boils down to one critical question: Does the power to "regulate" imports include the power to tax them?Importers argue that "regulating" isn't "taxing." They say if Congress wanted the President to levy tariffs unilaterally, they would have said so. The government argues the statute is broad enough to cover it.Why this matters for marketsIf the Supreme Court rules against the government, the implications are staggering.We are talking about potential refunds on tariffs collected under IEEPA. Estimates put this north of $150 billion. If importers (think big retail, tech, autos) get that cash back, it’s a massive injection of liquidity into corporate balance sheets. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US stock market witnessed a notable downturn today, largely driven by declines in major technology stocks, while the financial sector exhibited pockets of resilience. The overall mood hints at caution among investors amidst evolving market conditions.? Technology Sector: A Substantial PullbackSemiconductors: Chipmakers faced significant pressure. Nvidia (NVDA) dropped by 1.05%, while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) saw a sharper decline of 1.90%. Broadcom (AVGO) also fell by 1.36%, highlighting the sector's vulnerability.Software and Infrastructure: Microsoft (MSFT) slipped by 0.75%, fueled largely by concerns over software demand stability. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) decreased by 0.71%.Consumer Electronics: Apple (AAPL) fell by 0.55%, indicating possible market jitters surrounding consumer spending patterns and supply chain constraints.Internet and Communication: Google (GOOG) receded by 0.47%, while Meta Platforms (META) shed 0.83%, contributing to the broader negative sentiment in the tech domain.? Financial Sector: Bracing Against HeadwindsBanks: Despite overall market dips, financial stocks had a mixed performance, with Bank of America (BAC) decreasing steeply by 3.35%. However, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) showed minor resilience, only down 0.26%.Credit Services: Visa (V) posted a satisfactory gain of 0.31%, reflecting steady consumer spending patterns.Asset Management: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) increased by 0.21%, helping offset some financial sector losses.? Strategic RecommendationsThe market’s current trajectory, characterized by a tech retreat and resilience in financials, suggests vigilance for investors. Here are some actionable strategies:Diversify Portfolios: Consider redirecting investments towards sectors displaying resilience, such as financials and healthcare, to mitigate risks associated with tech volatility.Monitor Tech News: Stay updated with developments in the semiconductor and software industries to anticipate further price movements and adjust holdings accordingly.Focus on Stability: Securities like Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) can offer stability amidst market turbulence, making them a wise consideration.Overall, today's market snapshot underscores the importance of strategic flexibility and informed decision-making. The tech sector's pullback contrasts against financial resilience, framing a complex landscape for traders and investors. Stay tuned to InvestingLive.com for continuous updates and expert analysis, ensuring your investment decisions are data-driven and timely. ? This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Eyes will be on the US Supreme Court at 10 am ET (1500 GMT) as it delivers another decision.We don't know whether today's decision will be on tariffs or something else. The Supreme Court doesn't schedule its decisions, it only announces that a decision on one of the cases before it will be delivered today. We went through the same thing on Friday and tariff anticipation built up but the ultimate decision was on criminal law.Betting sites saw a surge in the odds that tariffs will be struck down after oral arguments in November. A majority of Justices sounded skeptical that Congressional powers of taxation were being respected, or that the rule of law was being followed. If they're struck down, the reasoning and remedy will be critical.If the reasoning leans towards it being a 'major questions' problem, the other tariff remedies could also be under threat. If it's more technical, then it clears the way for Trump to use other tariff powers to reconstitute tariffs, something that administration officials have pledged.I looked at how the administration could pivot and use different tariff powers here.The remedy is also a thorny issue. If the Supreme Court rules that tariffs must be refunded, then it would be a windfall for importers and a big hit to the US government's finances. it's nowhere near the 'trillions' that Trump often touts but the refunds would amount to around $130-$150 billion.Last week, I wrote about the stocks that could be winners and losers on the tariff decision. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Nasdaq Futures Analysis Today: Calm Long-Term Structure, Tactical Pressure Short TermA comment on trading social media earlier today said the Nasdaq “looks startled.”That single sentence was enough to trigger a full orderFlow Intel review across the long-term, medium-term, and short-term structure of Nasdaq futures.The conclusion is nuanced, but important:there is no panic, no structural breakdown, and no evidence of long-term fear.At the same time, there is short- and medium-term pressure that traders should respect.To make this useful for both professionals and less experienced readers, let’s break it down and then map out specific price levels that matter and why.Long-Term View: No Panic, No Structural DamageFrom a long-term perspective, the Nasdaq remains structurally stable.Value has migrated higher over time, and price remains well above the major November lows. This is not the behavior of a market under stress or one experiencing forced selling. Long-term participants are still engaged, and there are no signs of liquidation or fear-driven exits.This matters because short-term volatility often feels dramatic, but long-term structure tells us whether something is actually breaking. Right now, it is not.I'm also looking at this simple daily chart at NDX (The Nasdaq-100 Index includes 100 of the largest domestic and international non-financial companies listed on The Nasdaq Stock Market based on market capitalization), seperately from Nasdaq futures. And I think you should also be watching the Nasdaq Index today, to see how it possibly reacts to that red resistance line and the 26,000 psychological round number, perhaps later this week.Medium-Term View: Discomfort, Not CollapseThe medium-term picture is where the tension shows up.Recent price action has occurred below key reference levels, and value has shifted lower over recent sessions. That puts sellers in control for now on this timeframe, even though the long-term structure remains intact.This is where confusion often arises. Many readers ask:“So… is the market bullish or bearish?”The answer is that different timeframes can say different things at the same time, and that is normal.Long term: stable and constructiveMedium term: under pressure, rotating lowerShort term: stabilizing, but not resolvedUnderstanding that distinction is what prevents overreaction.Short-Term View: Stabilization Near Important SupportOn the short-term view, buyers have stepped in to slow the decline and stabilize price, particularly near levels that have repeatedly attracted interest over the past several days.This does not yet mean the market has turned bullish, but it does mean downside momentum is being absorbed rather than accelerating.The Navigational Map for Nasdaq Futures Today: Key Levels That MatterThis is where the analysis becomes actionable.These are not random numbers. They are prices that define value boundaries, areas where professional and algorithmic participants reassess risk and exposure.1. 25,862 – Yesterday’s Value Area Low (Short-Term Ceiling)This level is important because it marks the lower boundary of yesterday’s accepted value.Even if price rebounds toward today’s VWAP near 25,825, this level remains a ceilingIf price can produce two 30-minute closes above 25,862, it signals re-entry into yesterday’s value areaThat would strongly suggest that today’s dip is being repaired rather than extendedFor less technical readers, think of this as a gate. If price re-enters yesterday’s “room,” conditions improve meaningfully.2. 25,659 – Major Support ClusterThis is one of the most important levels on the chart.It aligns with:Multiple session lows over the past three and a half daysA long-standing volume profile reference from well before January 8A clear clustering of historical interestAs long as buyers are not panicking, this level has a high probability of being defended. Losing it decisively would change the medium-term narrative.3. 25,550 – Deeper Support, Line in the SandThis level appears repeatedly in the 30-minute structure and sits below the recent range.If price reaches this area, buyers should be expected to defend itA failure here would indicate that bearish pressure is no longer just rotationalUntil that happens, it remains a worst-case support scenario, not a base case4. 25,878 – January 12 VWAP (Upside Test)If price reclaims today’s VWAP and then pushes above 25,878, it would signal improving acceptance on the upside.That would weaken the current medium-term bearish rotation and reopen higher targets.5. 26,000 – Psychological and Structural MagnetRound numbers matter because they concentrate liquidity and decision-making.A sustained move toward 26,000 would suggest renewed upside ambitionAcceptance above it would reopen the discussion around new all-time highsFailure near it would likely attract sellers againWhy These Levels Are Not “Just Lines on a Chart”Some readers understandably say:“If price is above X, it’s bullish. Below X, it’s bearish. What’s new?”The difference here is context.These levels are not arbitrary. They define value territories.When price crosses them and stays there, it is not just moving higher or lower. It is entering a new area where more upside or downside becomes statistically more likely, because that is how professional participants and algorithms interpret value transitions.Crossing a gate opens a new room.Bottom Line for Nasdaq Traders and InvestorsThere is no long-term panic in the NasdaqMedium-term pressure exists and should be respectedShort-term stabilization is occurring near important supportKey levels, not headlines, will determine what comes nextThis is a market that rewards patience and structure, not emotional reactions.As always, this analysis is a decision-support tool, not financial advice. Markets evolve, and so should positioning.—Analysis by Itai Levitan, Head of Strategy at investingLive.com This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Prior was 0.0% (revised to -0.1%)Details:Ex-autos +0.5% vs +0.4% expectedPrior ex autos +0.4% (revised to +0.2%)Ex autos and gas +0.4% vs +0.5% prior (revised to +0.4%)Control group +0.4% vs +0.4% expected Prior control +0.8% (revised to +0.6%)Retail sales y/y % vs +3.47% priorThis is generally in-line on the headline but the overall report is a tad soft because of the revisions.Food services and drinking places +0.6% (prior: -0.1%) — spending on experiences reaccelerated after a soft October, a good read on discretionary demand Clothing and clothing accessories +0.9% (prior: +1.2%) — still strong even after a big October gain, consistent with tariff front-running or early holiday demand Motor vehicle and parts dealers +1.0% (prior: -1.6%) — sharp reversal following October weakness, likely helped by incentives and pull-forward demand Building materials and garden supplies +1.3% (prior: -1.3%) — bounce after a weak prior month, hinting at tentative stabilization in housing-related activity Furniture and home furnishings -0.1% (prior: +1.8%) — gave back part of October’s strength, underscoring how rate-sensitive this category remains Grocery stores +0.1% (prior: +0.2%) — little change month to month, suggesting volumes remain under pressureNonstore retailers +0.4% (prior: +1.0%) — growth cooled from October but the underlying trend remains solidThe year-over-year changes show which parts of the economy are doing ok, and which ones are struggling. These aren't inflation-adjusted so ratchet them down by about 2.7 pp.Food services and drinking places: +4.9% y/yClothing and clothing accessories stores: +7.5% y/yMotor vehicle and parts dealers: −0.7% y/yBuilding material and garden equipment & supplies dealers: −2.8% y/yFurniture and home furnishings stores: −1.4% y/yGrocery stores: +2.9% y/yNonstore retailers: +7.2% y/yControl group (ex-autos, gas, building materials, food services): +4.4% y/yFor back ground: the US retail sales report is one of the market’s cleanest reads on the health of the American consumer, and by extension the broader economy. Released monthly by the Census Bureau, it tracks the dollar value of sales across a wide range of retailers, from autos and gas stations to restaurants and online stores (shown as non-store retailers). Because consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of US GDP, the report carries real weight for growth expectations and interest-rate pricing.Markets tend to focus on the “control group,” which strips out autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services. That subset feeds directly into GDP calculations and often matters more than the headline. Strong retail sales suggest resilient demand, firmer pricing power, and less urgency for rate cuts. Weak numbers raise questions about consumer fatigue, credit stress, and the durability of the expansion.It’s a noisy report, prone to revisions and seasonal quirks. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +2.7%PPI M/M +0.2% vs 0.2% expectedPrior +0.3%Core PPI Y/Y +3.0% vs +2.7% expectedPrior +2.6%Core PPI M/M +0.0% vs +0.2% expectedPrior +0.1%The BLS notes that the November increase in prices for final demand can be traced to a 0.9-percent advance in the index for final demand goods. Prices for final demand services were unchanged.As a reminder, this is November data and besides being old news at this point, it could have the same shutdown related issues of the November CPI. I don't expect the market to focus too much on the data because we already got the more important and more timely December CPI yesterday.The market is pricing 54 bps of easing by year and that's unlikely to change much with today's data. The recent Fedspeak has shown zero interest for a rate cut in January even though the market still assigns it a 9% probability. The Fed projected just one cut in 2026 at the last policy meeting and we will need more labour market deterioration or bigger than expected fall in inflation to see them going faster on rate cuts.We've seen minimal reaction to the data as expected.WHAT THE US PPI MEASURES?The Producer Price Index (PPI) is an economic indicator that measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. In simpler terms, it tracks inflation from the perspective of the seller/business rather than the consumer like the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The US dollar is trading mostly lower with the USDJPY the weakest (-0.34%). THe greenback is lower by 0.17% versus the GBP and down -0.10% versus the EUR. The changes versus the other currency pairs including the CHF, CAD, AUD and NZD are all within 0.10% from the closing levels yesterday. Tariffs? What tariffs. China’s 2025 trade data show exports powering the economy to a record surplus, defying expectations that tariffs would meaningfully slow its manufacturing engine.Key takeaways:China’s trade surplus hit a record $1.19 trillion in 2025, underscoring export strength despite tariff pressure.Exports rose 5.5% in 2025, only slightly slower than 2024, while December exports grew 6.6% YoY and imports rebounded 5.7% YoY.Shipments to the United States fell 20%, but losses were offset by strong gains to Southeast Asia (+13%), the European Union (+8.4%), Latin America (+7.4%), and Africa (+26%).Global demand—helped by AI-related spending—and producer-price deflation kept Chinese goods competitive abroad.Manufacturing and exports drove growth, while property and household consumption lagged, reinforcing a “two-track” economy.Supply-chain diversification hasn’t displaced China; even when final assembly shifts elsewhere, Chinese components and equipment remain central.Geopolitical risks are rising, with concerns about cheap-goods inflows and warnings from the International Monetary Fund that China is too large to rely on exports for growth.2026 outlook is mixed: some export strength was front-loaded due to tariff uncertainty, but competitiveness and resilient global demand may keep exports firm; Beijing is phasing out export tax rebates for solar products and batteries amid oversupply. Can China keep the growth without the US? Was the numbers skewed because of the frontloading of inventory? So far they have weathered the storms. In Japan, the election drama continues to unfold. Japan opposition parties CDP and Komeito today have started talks on forming a new party. That sent the USDJPY lower and back below the January 2025 high at 158.87. The next targets come in at the November high at 157.89. The December high was at 157.76. The low price today reached to 15815. That was just short of the rising 100 hour MA at 158.08 (blue line on the chart below). Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is said to be poised to dissolve the House of Representatives on January 23, 2026, triggering a high-stakes snap general election.The Essentials:Target Dates: Election Day is expected to be either February 8 or February 15, 2026.The Strategy: Takaichi is looking to capitalize on her 70% approval rating to reclaim a solid majority for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The party currently relies on a "confidence and supply" coalition deal with the Japan Innovation Party to stay in power.The Risks: Calling an election now could delay the 2026 National Budget, potentially impacting local government funding and inflation-relief measures.There ware more bank earnings today with Wells, BofA and Citigroup announcing today. JPMorgan and Bank of New Yorked kicked off the earnings season yesterday. So far, the early U.S. bank earnings point to a mixed start to the season, with stronger-than-expected results at the money-center banks offset by softer performance from regional lenders.Earnings recap:Citigroup (C) Q4 2025: EPS $1.81 (BEAT; exp. $1.68), Revenue $21.0B (BEAT; exp. $20.55B)Bank of America (BAC) Q4 2025: EPS $0.98 (BEAT; exp. $0.96), Revenue $28.4B (BEAT; exp. $27.56B)Wells Fargo (WFC) Q4 2025: EPS $1.62 (MISS; exp. $1.66), Revenue $21.3B (MISS; exp. $21.64B)Looking the share prices:JP Morgan tumbled 4.19% yesterday and is unchanged in premarket trading today. Bank of New York rose 1.88% yesterday. Its shares are currently trading up 0.06% in premarket trading.Bank of America shares fell -1.18% yesterday and are currently down -0.4% today.Wells Fargo fell -1.47% yesterday and premarket shares are down -1.88%. Citigroup fell -1.19% yesterday and is currently up 0.09% todayOverall, the US stock indices are currently trading lower:Dow industrial average -142 points.S&P index -27 pointsNASDAQ index -128 pointsin the US debt market, yields are marginally lower: 2-year yield 3.520%, -0.8 basis points 5 year yield 3.732%, -1.0 basis points.10 year yield 4.159%, -1.1 basis points30 year yield 4.821%, -0.7 basis points US PPI will will be released at the bottom of the hour with the headline expected to rise by 0.2% and X food and energy also expected to rise by 0.2%. The YoY numbers are both expected to come in at 2.7%. Retail sales are expected to rise by 0.4% with ex autos up 0.4% in the control group also up 0.4%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe market has quickly forgotten about Maduro and Venezuela as the focus switched to the protests in Iran and Trump's threats of military action to support the protestors. The US President is taking advantage of the protests to either overthrow the current regime or force them to sign deals on US terms.Yesterday, Trump stated on his Truth Social that all the meetings with Iran's officials have been cancelled and exhorted the Iranian people to keep protesting because help was on the way.Nobody knows what he meant with "help is on the way" and when asked about it he answered with a "you are going to have to figure it out". Oil prices rose to new highs following Trump's post as fears of military intervention continue to be a tailwind for the market.WTI OIL FUTURES TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that we recently got a breakout of the falling channel with the buyers piling in with more conviction. Moreover, yesterday the price broke above the swing level around the $60.50 level opening the door for a rally into the $66.00 price region. The market is now driven solely by the geopolitical tensions between US and Iran, so traders will keep focusing on that front for the next direction.WTI OIL FUTURES TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. We can expect the buyers to continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will want to see a break below the trendline and the $60.50 level to position for a pullback into the major support zone around the $58.80 level. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Japanese Yen rebounds amid barrage of verbal intervention and "sell the fact" tradeJapan's finance minister offers up an oddly specific commentTokyo officials intensify verbal intervention on the Japanese yenNippon Ishin party leader says Takaichi is to call snap election at start of Diet sessionTrump says that the US needs Greenland for the purpose of national securityChina customs authorities say Nvidia's H200 chips are not permitted - reportTariffs? What tariffs? China posts record-breaking trade surplus in 2025Markets:JPY leads, USD lags on the dayEuropean equities mixed; S&P 500 futures down 0.5%US 10-year yields down 1.9 bps to 4.151%Gold up 1.0% to $4,634.19WTI crude oil up 1.1% to $61.88Bitcoin up 0.7% to $94,750The Japanese yen was the main focus on the session after dropping in Asia, with USD/JPY ramping up above 159.00 to its highest since July 2024 at one point.All that before some verbal intervention from Tokyo officials, mostly as you would expect. However, included in there was an oddly specific comment by Japan finance minister Katayama. He singled out the yen decline last Friday as being not in line with fundamentals, triggering some selling in USD/JPY amid rising intervention risks.That halted the yen rout with the pair seeing some volatile price action but ultimately now being lower by 0.3% to 158.56 with the drop earlier even touching 158.15 on the session. That as Japan prime minister Takaichi also confirms that she will be dissolving the parliament's lower house later this month and will call for a snap election in February.As for other major currencies, there wasn't anything exciting with the dollar keeping more tepid ahead of more US data later in the day.The other notable headline on the session was that China has banned Nvidia's H200 AI chips from entering the country, barring special circumstances. That's keeping risk trades on edge alongside Trump threatening to claim Greenland on the pretext of "national security".US futures are sitting lower across the board with tech shares leading declines. S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% with Nasdaq futures down 0.7% currently.Meanwhile, European equities were off to a decent start with major benchmark indices in France, Spain, and the UK all posting fresh record highs at the open. However, the momentum is slowly fizzling out now with the DAX even being down 0.4% as risk trades err on the side of caution.The other big movers on the day are none other than precious metals once again. After catching a bid in Asia, gold and silver are holding on to gains for the most part in European morning trade. Gold is up 1.0% to $4,634 while silver is up near 5% to $91.30 on a break of the $90 mark today. The hot streak continues. ? This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

By Samuel Hertz, Head of APAC at EBC Financial Group On January 3, 2026, the United States confirmed the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, an event that immediately sent shockwaves across diplomatic channels and global markets. While the incident was framed publicly as a political enforcement action, its deeper significance lies in how closely it aligns with the United States’ 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS). This was not an isolated event, but rather a policy action aligned with broader U.S. strategic priorities related to regional geopolitics, energy security, and global finance. The Oil Market Paradox: Why Price Did Not SpikeFrom a financial market perspective, the most striking outcome was not political escalation, but market restraint. Historically, upheaval in a country holding the world’s largest oil reserves would have triggered sharp increases in crude prices. In 2026, however, the response was muted.Despite possessing approximately 303 billion barrels of reserves, Venezuela’s oil sector has been structurally crippled by decades of underinvestment and infrastructure degradation. Current export volumes hover around 500,000 barrels per day, a figure that is economically insignificant when set against global demand of nearly 100 million barrels per day. As a result, disruptions in Venezuelan supply lack the scale necessary to meaningfully tighten global markets.This dynamic is further reinforced by the United States’ position as the world’s largest oil producer, with output nearly 13.4 million barrels per day. At this level, US production alone provides a substantial buffer against regional supply shocks, eliminating the need for emergency releases from strategic reserves. Meanwhile, OPEC+ has shown a clear reluctance to reduce output aggressively, even after oil prices declined roughly 20 percent in 2025, underscoring a market still characterised by excess supply. In this context, Venezuela’s political shock registered as a volatility event rather than a structural repricing of oil.Defending the Petrodollar: The Monetary DimensionBeyond energy fundamentals, President Maduro’s capture carries deeper implications for the global monetary system. Prior to his detention, President Maduro had accelerated efforts to sell Venezuelan oil in non-USD currencies, while also promoting the petro cryptocurrency as an alternative settlement mechanism. Although limited in scale, these initiatives symbolised a broader trend toward de-dollarisation in commodity markets. By intervening, the United States effectively ensured that any future recovery in Venezuelan oil production would be reintegrated into the US dollar-based pricing and settlement system. This move strengthens the petrodollar framework at a time when BRICS economies are actively exploring parallel financial architectures. From a financial perspective, Venezuela has thus become less a political battleground and more a frontline in the defence of dollar dominance. Investment Outlook: Navigating Oil Oversupply in an AI-Driven Energy TransitionThe path to recovery, however, is neither immediate nor guaranteed. It is estimated that approximately USD58 billion will be required to modernise Venezuela’s ageing oil infrastructure, much of which dates back more than half a century. Only a small number of global energy majors, predominantly US-based firms such as ExxonMobil and Chevron, possess both the capital strength and strategic incentives to undertake such investment once political conditions stabilise.From a market perspective, the potential recovery of Venezuelan oil production, if combined with already ample supply from the United States and OPEC+ stance, points toward a prolonged period of relatively low and range-bound oil prices. In such environment, oil is likely to function as a stable, cost-based input that supports global growth, particularly in emerging and manufacturing-intensive economies.At the same time, global energy demand is entering a new phase of expansion. The rapid deployment of artificial intelligence (AI), high-performance computing, and hyperscale data centres is significantly increasing baseload electricity demand. Unlike traditional industrial cycles, AI-related energy consumption is continuous, power-intensive, and geographically concentrated, placing stress on grids rather than oil supply chains. This dynamic is accelerating capital flows into power generation, grid infrastructure, and energy storage rather than upstream oil exploration.Investment opportunities are increasingly bifurcated because of that. On one side, traditional oil and gas investments are shifting toward energy efficiency, cost leadership, and brownfield optimisation. In a low-price environment, only producers with strong balance sheets, advanced extraction technologies, and low breakeven costs are likely to generate sustainable returns. Capital expenditure is expected to remain disciplined, favouring incremental capacity expansion over large-scale greenfield projects.On the other side, structural capital is flowing toward the energy systems that enable digital transformation. Renewable energy, nuclear power extensions, natural gas as a transition fuel, and grid modernisation are emerging as strategic beneficiaries of AI-driven demand growth. Data centres are increasingly co-located with renewable assets, long-term power purchase agreements, and energy storage solutions to ensure cost stability and regulatory compliance. For institutional investors, this environment favours a more selective and thematic approach. Exposure to energy markets is likely to outperform when aligned with electrification, digital infrastructure, and energy security rather than pure commodity price bets. In this context, geopolitical events such as the temporary control of Venezuela matter less for their immediate price impact and more for how they reinforce long-term supply stability and monetary order, particularly through the continued dominance of USD-denominated energy trade.In EBC’s view, the coming decade will be defined not by energy scarcity, but by energy allocation. Capital will increasingly flow to systems that can deliver reliable, scalable, and cleaner power for a data-driven global economy. Investors who recognise this shift early—balancing legacy energy exposure with forward-looking infrastructure and technology-linked assets—will be better positioned to navigate a world where oil abundance and energy demand expansion coexist.For more analysis from EBC, visit: www.ebc.com.Disclaimer: This material is for information only and does not constitute a recommendation or advice from EBC Financial Group and all its entities ("EBC"). Trading Forex and Contracts for Difference (CFDs) on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Before trading, you should carefully consider your trading objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and consult an independent financial advisor if necessary. Statistics or past investment performance are not a guarantee of future performance. EBC is not liable for any damages arising from reliance on this information.About EBC Financial Group Founded in London, EBC Financial Group (“EBC”) is a global brand known for its expertise in financial brokerage and asset management. Through its regulated entities operating across major financial jurisdictions—including the UK, Australia, the Cayman Islands, Mauritius, South Africa and others—EBC enables retail, professional, and institutional investors to access global markets and trading opportunities, including currencies, commodities, CFDs and more. Trusted by investors in over 100 countries and honoured with global awards including multiple year recognition from World Finance, EBC is widely regarded as one of the world’s best brokers with titles including Best Trading Platform and Most Trusted Broker. With its strong regulatory standing and commitment to transparency, EBC has also been consistently ranked among the top brokers—trusted for its ability to deliver secure, innovative, and client-first trading solutions across competitive international markets. EBC’s subsidiaries are licensed and regulated within their respective jurisdictions. EBC Financial Group (UK) Limited is regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA); EBC Financial Group (Cayman) Limited is regulated by the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority (CIMA); EBC Financial Group (Australia) Pty Ltd, and EBC Asset Management Pty Ltd are regulated by Australia's Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC); EBC Financial (MU) Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Commission Mauritius (FSC); EBC Financial Group SA (Pty) Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA). At the core of EBC are a team of industry veterans with over 40 years of experience in major financial institutions. Having navigated key economic cycles from the Plaza Accord and 2015 Swiss franc crisis to the market upheavals of the COVID-19 pandemic. We foster a culture where integrity, respect, and client asset security are paramount, ensuring that every investor relationship is handled with the utmost seriousness it deserves. EBC is a proud official foreign exchange partner of FC Barcelona and continues to drive impactful partnerships to empower communities – namely through the UN Foundation’s United to Beat Malaria initiative, Department of Economics at the University of Oxford, and a diverse range of partners to champion initiatives in global health, economics, education, and sustainability. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

It looks like geopolitics is back on the menu as we look to the day ahead. From the man himself:"The United States needs Greenland for the purpose of National Security. It is vital for the Golden Dome that we are building. NATO should be leading the way for us to get it. IF WE DON’T, RUSSIA OR CHINA WILL, AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN! Militarily, without the vast power of the United States, much of which I built during my first term, and am now bringing to a new and even higher level, NATO would not be an effective force or deterrent - Not even close! They know that, and so do I. NATO becomes far more formidable and effective with Greenland in the hands of the UNITED STATES. Anything less than that is unacceptable. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DJT"What a time to be alive when world leaders start talking about countries and territories ever so trivially, as though like a kid talking about toys.With Nvidia also in the microscope as China bans its H200 chips, it's going to be a bumpy start for US stocks later at the open. S&P 500 futures are already down 0.4% on the day now with Nasdaq futures down 0.6% and Dow futures down 0.3%.Circling back to geopolitics, it's not just Greenland in the picture at the moment. Trump also has his eyes on Iran and that is also drawing plenty of flak from other big nations. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

It's been quite the trade in precious metals over the last six months especially. You would think that we'll be meeting a cooling point soon but even until today, things continue to run hot for both gold and silver. But if you've been watching things closely, or even loosely for that matter, you'll surely notice that silver has been in much more scintillating form as compared to gold.Since the end of July last year, silver has gained by over 145% until now. As for gold, it has posted gains of "only" just over 40% since that same time period.Now, the fundamental factors driving the rally in both precious metals do share some similarities. That being the case of geopolitical uncertainty and currency debasement fears, well mostly the latter I would say. And silver is typically by extension the more "volatile" or "risky" little brother to gold. One can think of it as the supposed "poor man's gold".But amid a structural supply deficit, it has basically sent things into overdrive and just about time. It's been five straight years already that silver is facing a supply deficit, with demand consistently outstripping mine production. So, that's one key factor driving the surge as we continue the AI and green transition globally.In turn, that is now seeing a massive narrowing in the gold-to-silver ratio - which is on approach to the 50.0 mark. That's the lowest point since 2013.When it comes to gold and silver, there are very few established trading axioms in general. You can point to your fundamentals, technicals, and seasonal factors. But outside of that, there's not too much else.The gold-to-silver ratio though is one that some traders and investors do look at and it is starting to present a very interesting situation to start the year.Most would point to the 80/60 rule when it comes to the ratio, as noted above. However, there are some that would argue that the rule is closer towards 80/50. And if you want to go by the former, we're sitting quite close by to the point where the narrative of the story suggests that "silver is overvalued" or "gold is undervalued".The point to be made here is not that market players are undervaluing gold, not by the littlest bit. As mentioned above, gold itself has also risen by over 40% in the last six months or so. And for any asset class, that's an incredible run on its own merit.The thing to be mindful of here is that when something moves in a straight line too quickly, the pullbacks can be just as violent. Something, something Icarus flying too close to the sun.So while the silver rally is quite something to behold in starting the new year and moving above $90 today, just be mindful that the pace of the rally is starting to challenge some trading axioms and comfort boundaries.In that lieu, any retracements in precious metals look likely to punish silver much more than it would gold. That is if you are to go by the mean reversion theory tied to the gold-to-silver ratio.From a fundamental standpoint, the stars are continuing to stay aligned for gold and silver to stay hot over the medium-term. But as always with consensus trades, there's a certain element of danger when it comes to too one-sided positioning. And that is the pullbacks, whenever and however they come, can be sharp and violent.The 9% dip on 29 December already offered a bit of a fair warning. The next one that comes could be even more brutal. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The Japanese officials were out in force today trying to smooth out the recent selloff in the Japanese Yen. We got the Finance Minister Katayama saying that they would take appropriate action against excessive forex moves without excluding any option and that she had deep talks on the matter with US Treasury Secretary Bessent.We then got the comment from the Japanese Top Currency Diplomat Mimura doubling down on the verbal intervention by reiterating that would take appropriate action against excessive moves and that they are not ruling out any options.Intervention worries have been increasing in the past days after USD/JPY broke above the 158.00 level and Japanese officials increased their verbal intervention. In 2024, we got two strong interventions around the 160.00 level. Given the fact that we touched the 159.45 level yesterday and the intensification of Japanese officials' "jawboning", traders are starting to get more cautious on further upside.Moreover, Japanese PM Takaichi confirmed the intention to dissolve parliament at the next regular session calling a snap election in February. This has led to a bit of a "sell the fact" reaction in the market after traders "bought the rumor" on Friday when we got the first report from Yomiuri.Unfortunately, this might not stop the depreciation in the Japanese Yen yet because the fundamentals remain unfavorable for the currency amid expansionary fiscal policy and the BoJ's slow monetary policy normalisation keeping real rates in the negative territory, This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.