US House Speaker Johnson said Republicans remain divided over whether tariff revenues should be used to fund $2,000 payments to households.Such payments tend to act as stimulus and give stocks a boost. Heads up, that expected boost is unlikely now. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Data only on this post. I'll post more detail separately. ADDED: Here we are, detail and analysis: New Zealand inflation rises above target as domestic pressures persistPreview is here from earlier. Non-tradeables +0.6% q/q and +3.5% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand inflation data:Analysts expect New Zealand consumer prices to have increased by around 0.5% in the December quarter, leaving annual inflation steady at 3.0%. The quarterly rise is largely attributed to higher petrol prices and seasonal increases in travel and accommodation costs over the holiday period. These pressures were partly offset by a typical seasonal decline in food prices. Beneath the headline figures, measures of core inflation have continued to ease over the past year, with most indicators now sitting in the 2–3% range. This projection is above the RBNZ’s November MPS forecast of 0.2% quarterly inflation and an annual rate of 2.7%.For the New Zealand dollar, a firmer-than-RBNZ CPI outcome would lean modestly supportive at the margin, reinforcing the view that inflation is proving more persistent than the central bank assumed in its November forecasts. A +0.5% quarterly print would help anchor NZD downside and potentially offer short-term support against the AUD and USD. That said, with core inflation continuing to trend lower and annual inflation holding near 3%, the data are unlikely to trigger a material repricing of the policy outlook on their own, leaving the NZD sensitive to broader risk sentiment and offshore rate dynamics. Japan inflation data:Recent data showed headline CPI running at 2.9% y/y, with national core inflation (excluding fresh food) at 3.0% and monthly prices rising 0.4%. Core-core inflation, which strips out both fresh food and energy, edged down to 3.0% from 3.1%, but inflation remains well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for a 44th straight month, sustaining expectations of further policy normalisation over time. Analyst notes indicate policymakers are increasingly focused on the inflationary effects of a weak yen, as higher import costs are passed through to consumers. Even so, the BoJ is widely expected to leave policy unchanged at its January meeting. More on the BoJ following below ...Bank of Japan:You'll note the time for the BoJ statement listed at 0300 GMT. This is approximate only. The BoJ never has a set time for its policy announcement. An 0230 to 0330 GMT time window is a reasonable expectation. What is known is the Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will begin his press conference at 0630 GMT. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% while signalling a continued tightening bias. Growth forecasts are likely to be revised higher, reflecting fiscal stimulus and easing external headwinds, while inflation risks remain elevated due to yen weakness and firm wage growth. Attention will centre on Governor Ueda’s guidance, particularly whether he opens the door to an earlier rate hike if the yen slides further. Markets are also alert to any adjustment in bond-purchase tapering to contain rising yields, a move that could weaken the yen and lift equities.More detailed previews can be found here:BOJ signals readiness for more rate hikes as yen weakness fuels inflation risksBoJ preview: Will the central bank intervene in the bond market and sink the yen? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Strong Q4 execution was overshadowed by cautious Q1 guidance, tempering the near-term earnings outlook.Summary Q4 EPS and revenue beat expectations, driven by Datacenter & AI and FoundryGross and operating margins surprised meaningfully to the upside in Q4Client Computing revenue slightly missed estimatesQ1 EPS and revenue guidance fell short of consensusMargin outlook for Q1 flagged renewed pressureIntel reported a stronger-than-expected set of results for the December quarter, delivering beats across earnings, revenue and margins, although a cautious outlook for the March quarter tempered the market reaction. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.15, well above consensus expectations, while revenue of $13.67bn also topped forecasts, pointing to improved execution across several key segments.Margins were a standout feature of the quarter. Adjusted gross margin rose to 37.9%, comfortably ahead of estimates, while adjusted operating margin reached 8.8%, also exceeding expectations. The margin performance suggests progress on cost control and operational efficiency following a prolonged period of restructuring and investment, and provided a notable positive surprise for investors focused on Intel’s turnaround narrative.Segment performance was mixed but broadly supportive. Datacenter & AI revenue rose to $4.74bn, beating estimates and underscoring ongoing demand for compute and AI-related infrastructure, even as competitive pressures remain intense. Intel Foundry revenue also exceeded expectations at $4.51bn, highlighting incremental traction in the company’s manufacturing ambitions. By contrast, Client Computing revenue of $8.19bn came in slightly below forecasts, reflecting persistent softness in the PC market and ongoing caution among enterprise and consumer buyers.Looking ahead, guidance for the March quarter was weaker than the market had anticipated. Intel forecast adjusted EPS at breakeven, below consensus expectations, and projected revenue in a range of $11.7bn to $12.7bn, implying a softer near-term demand environment. The company also guided to a decline in adjusted gross margin to 34.5%, signalling renewed margin pressure as volumes ease and investment spending continues.Overall, the results highlight a company making tangible operational progress, but still navigating a challenging demand backdrop. While Q4 execution and margin delivery were encouraging, the softer Q1 outlook reinforces that Intel’s recovery is likely to remain uneven, with investor confidence hinging on sustained Datacenter growth and continued foundry momentum through 2026. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Australian dollar is endorsing a positive view on global growth this year.It's made a strong move higher against the US dollar today, gaining 83 pips to 0.6843. That's the best level since October 2024, a month when AUD/USD touched 0.6942 before failing to truly challenge the 70-cent figure. From there it sank as low as 59-cents in the aftermath of Trump's Liberation Day before embarking on a steady grind higher to current levels.The latest move higher is a sharp one, in part due to Australia's status as a major mining exporter. The jump in gold prices is likely to set off a fresh round of inbound capital expenditures in mining exploration and development. In addition, copper is near all-time highs.In the bigger picture, I think the Australian dollar is sniffing out an improving global growth picture, in large part due to stronger government spending. The Trump administration is running large fiscal deficits and the turmoil in Germany led to a step change in German spending. Lately, Chinese growth indications are flagging and speculation is climbing regarding more fiscal stimulus. In Japan, PM Takaichi is running on fresh stimulus, despite the risk of rising borrowing costs.The world is also looking for an island of stability away from Trump's ever-changing whims. That's precisely what Australian and New Zealand have turned into (NZD is also up 1.1% today). There is plenty to like in both these economies as we work out way through a tumultuous time in global geopolitics. I think AUD/CAD is telling in the geopolitical lens. The Aussie is at the highest since 2023 against the loonie despite being a fellow commodity currency and with both central banks at roughly the same spot in the cycle, though the RBA is closer to hiking rates.Canada faces the prospect of a trading squeeze with the United States, while Australia does little trade with the US and has managed to China relationship successfully. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Gold sold off after the de-escalation over Greenland but bidders were waiting in the wings and waiting at $4772, which was the session low. We're now more than $100 above that level and threatening $4900 for the first time.Similarly, silver touched $96 for the first time, rising 3% on the day.The $5000 level for gold and $100 for silver are now both a small reach away and those will act as magnets for the market. The short-term risk I see is around Trump's decision on the Federal Reserve Chairman. He once again appeared to rule out former-favorite Kevin Hassett in Davos. That has Kevin Warsh as the betting favorite but Rick Rieder saw his odds rise starting last week after an interview with Trump and some favorable media leaks afterwards.There are differing views on Warsh but I see him as a Trump yes-man, who has lobbied for the Fed job for years. I'd expect him to be a dove and toe Trump's line about significantly lowering interest rates. He might struggled to do that given the composition of the FOMC but he's more-dovish on the margins.In contrast, Rick Rieder is seen as an intelligent man who would make a great Fed chair. He's seen as independent, thoughtful and someone who would preserve the value of the US dollar. That's a negative for gold and that's why I see headline risk on the announcement.It's likely to be temporary though. The events in Davos this week highlighted the cracks in the global world order and the US at the center of it. Germany's Merz sounded determined to further integrate and insulate Europe and that was a common refrain. It was hard to listen to Trump yesterday and envision anything but three more years of turmoil. That should continue to keep a bid under gold.One warning is that the seasonal tailwind for gold is coming to an end. It's a driving factor that I highlight year after year so it would argue for some caution, particularly if gold and silver can tag those big numbers in the short term. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +3391KGasoline +5977K vs +1705K expDistillates +3349K vs -162K expRefinery utilization -2.0%Oil is at the lows of the day following this report, with WTI crude oil down $1.30 to $59.31.Private inventories late yesterday:Crude: +3.04 millionGasoline: +6.2 millionDistillates: -33,000There have been a number of large builds in US supply lately and that's a harbinger of some pain in the oil market once the geopolitical scene settles down. Peace in Ukraine is a further downside risk for oil.For background:The Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), is arguably the most influential set of energy data in the world. Released every Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET, it provides a comprehensive snapshot of the U.S. oil supply chain, covering crude oil inventories, refinery operations, and fuel production.The report serves as the official government audit of the nation’s energy balance. Unlike voluntary industry surveys, the EIA has the legal authority to mandate reporting from approximately 1,200 entities, including refineries, pipelines, and bulk terminals. This ensures high-quality data that market participants use to estimate "implied demand"—calculated by tracking how much product has left the primary supply chain.Traders and policymakers focus on several "market-moving" indicators within the report:Commercial Crude Stocks: The change in the number of barrels held by U.S. firms.Refinery Utilization: The percentage of capacity refineries are currently using.Product Inventories: Stockpiles of gasoline, distillate (diesel/heating oil), and jet fuel. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

National Bank points out a glaring inconsistency in this week's Canadian inflation report: Every component rose less than the headline.How can the sum be more than the parts? They explain that it's a quirk from the way Statistics Canada seasonally adjusts the data but that it argues inflation is near-flat rather than above target."As today’s Hot Chart shows, in December, every seasonally adjusted sub‑component grew at a slower pace than the overall index—an unprecedented intellectual impossibility," National Bank writes.CPI canada Here is the note:When the CPI was released on Monday, the market reaction was mixed in the face of puzzling results. On the one hand, headline annual inflation came in well above consensus expectations (2.4% vs. 2.2% expected). On the other hand, the two core inflation measures tracked by Bloomberg pointed to more contained price pressures: CPI-Trim matched expectations at 2.7%, while CPI‑Median came in two‑tenths below consensus (2.5% vs. 2.7%). Part of these discrepancies stem from differences in the seasonal‑adjustment process. For CPI‑Trim and CPI‑Median, Statistics Canada seasonally adjusts each sub‑component and then aggregates them using the appropriate weights. In contrast, for headline CPI, the agency seasonally adjusts only the main components but does not use these results when constructing the overall index, which is instead seasonally adjusted independently. Statistics Canada justifies this approach by arguing that it filters out seasonal patterns more effectively, but we note that it can also create frustrating inconsistencies. As today’s Hot Chart shows, in December, every seasonally adjusted sub‑component grew at a slower pace than the overall index—an unprecedented intellectual impossibility. Had Statistics Canada used a bottom‑up approach similar to that of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, seasonally adjusted monthly inflation would have been just 0.06%, instead of the official 0.30%. The last time such a large gap between the two methods appeared was in 2009. While the Bank of Canada officially prioritizes CPI‑Trim and CPI‑Median as core measures, its recent communications indicate it is also monitoring inflation excluding food and energy, as well as CPI excluding the 8 most volatile components. The first two, which rely on the bottom‑up method, rose only 0.07% on average in December (0.8% annualized), while the latter two, which are seasonally adjusted independently, grew 0.19% on average (2.3% annualized). At a time when the Bank of Canada is reassessing which core inflation metrics to emphasize, it would be appropriate for both the Bank and Statistics Canada to align on a consistent seasonal‑adjustment methodology. Maintaining the status quo makes it unnecessarily difficult to assess underlying inflation pressures.If Canadian inflation resolves lower, it could weigh on the Canadian dollar as the chance of a December rate hike (currently at just shy of 50%) is priced out. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Elon Musk's SpaceX is preparing for an IPO, according to the Financial Times.The report says the company has lined up Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley for the IPO, which could be the largest in history.Shares have recently been sold at an $800 billion valuation. It's unclear what portion of the company will be made public in the sale but the largest ever capital raise via public sale was Aramco's $29 billion.However if OpenAI or Anthropic were to launch an IPO, it could be surpassed in short order.Musk is in Davos today making his usual predictions about the imminent global rollout of full-self driving, robotics and data centers in space. His credibility is basically non-existent on that front so I won't bother repeating them.Tesla shares are up 1.3% today but down so far this year. I see this as a massive potential double top as the company is likely to burn cash this year and has no reasonable way back to being a growing automaker. The robotics side is vaporware so far and even if robotaxi works, the market isn't big enough to sustain the valuation and it will quickly be commoditized.I wonder if the SpaceX IPO will siphon money from the retail market from TSLA. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

TD Cowen is out with a bullish report on the metals complex, arguing the macroeconomic setup for the next several years is the strongest in years. The core thesis rests on chronic underinvestment colliding with supply deficits, creating a particularly favorable environment for copper and uranium.The supply side of the copper equation is tightening significantly. Supply growth in 2025 fell to just 1.4%, marking the lowest levels since the pandemic. This output gap is the cumulative result of years of insufficient capital expenditure and recent high-profile mine disruptions. Consequently, forecasts for copper deficits have been extended through 2027, prompting a revision of the long-term copper price assumption to $5.00/lb from $4.50/lb. "We do not believe that new supply will enter the market unless spot pricing remains above $5.00/lb at a minimum," TD writes.A big change from last year was a combination of poor execution and disasters at a number of mines that led to underproduction, including Teck's QB mine, Ivanhoe's Kamoa-Kakula, Freeport's Grasberg, and Codelco's El Teniente.We estimate that total 2025 production for our coverage universe will fall 13% below the midpoint of the original guidance ranges.Much of that will bleed into this year.TD highlights estimates from Wood Mackenzie:Heading into 2026, Wood Mackenzie now forecasts a supply deficit of 320kt. The deficit has grown ~85% since Q3, largely reflecting the implementation of Grasberg's ~270kt loss in 2026. The market will be focused on any delays in restoring production towards Grasberg's targeted steady state of 725kt per year in 2027-2029. Recovery delays could drive copper prices higher than our forecastsEyes are also on China, which consumes about 55% of global copper supply. So far, EV demand is helping to compensate for a moribund property market but in 2026, they see just 0.9% consumption growth, falling to near 0% by 2029.Uranium is also seeing upward revisions, with long-term price targets raised to $90/lb. The sector is benefiting from a wave of new reactor build announcements, particularly in the US, and government efforts to secure critical mineral supply. This will keep the physical market tight despite equities already trading at record valuations.In the equity space, the focus is on producers with advantageous cost structures. Top picks include Capstone, Hudbay, and Lundin Mining. For Hudbay and Lundin specifically, the strength in gold prices is providing significant by-product credits, effectively lowering their cash costs while they capitalize on the copper rally. M&A activity remains a key theme to watch, highlighted by ongoing merger talks in the sector and the expected closure of the Anglo-Teck combination later this year.On the downside, they say investors should remain wary of the iron ore market, which faces a divergence from the rest of the complex. A supply surplus is anticipated in 2026 as the Simandou project ramps up, likely weighing on prices. Additionally, trade policy remains a variable, with potential U.S. copper tariffs expected to be a topical issue leading into a mid-year decision.Here are the main forecast changes:Copper: 2026 forecast raised to $5.50/lb (from $5.25/lb); Long-Term forecast raised to $5.00/lb (from $4.50/lb).Gold: 2026 forecast raised to $4,650/oz (from $3,900/oz).Silver: 2026 forecast raised to $73/oz (from $46/oz).Uranium: 2027 forecast raised to $95/lb (from $90/lb); Long-Term forecast raised to $90/lb (from $85/lb).Zinc: 2026 forecast raised to $1.38/lb (from $1.20/lb).Nickel: 2026 forecast raised to $7.56/lb (from $7.00/lb).Iron Ore: 2026 forecast (62% Fe) lowered to $98/t (from $100/t). This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +2.8% y/yCore PCE 2.8% vs 2.8% expectedCore m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% expUnrounded core PCE +0.160% was vs +0.274% m/m priorDeflator +0.2% m/m vs +0.2% expected Unrounded +0.207% vs +0.238% m/m priorConsumer spending and income for November :Personal income +0.3% vs +0.4% expected. Prior month +0.6%Personal spending +0.5% vs +0.5% expected. Prior month +0.4%Real personal spending +0.3% vs +0.1% priorSavings rate 3.5% vs 3.7% priorThis is a messy report because of data collection issues during the government shutdown. That's forced the statisticians to use CPI data to synthesize some of the numbers, or to impute missing prices using the geometric mean of September and November CPIs to synthesize the October data.Market moves on this report were muted but as the numbers are mostly in-line. I think with the shutdown problems, the whole data set is a bit tough to hang your hat on. At face value, the spending numbers are good for GDP and a positive sign for the economy but inflation continues to run well-above the Fed's 2% target.For background:The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report is a monthly economic release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) that tracks how much consumers spend on goods and services. It serves as a primary pillar of the U.S. economy, as consumer spending accounts for approximately two-thirds of domestic economic activity.The report is most famous for its PCE Price Index, which the Federal Reserve considers its "gold standard" for measuring inflation. Unlike the more common Consumer Price Index (CPI), the PCE captures a broader scope of costs, including those paid on behalf of consumers (such as employer-provided healthcare). It also uses a "chain-type" formula that accounts for substitution behavior—if beef prices skyrocket and shoppers switch to chicken, the PCE reflects that shift, whereas the CPI often lags in doing so.Investors and policymakers watch two versions: "Headline" PCE (or the deflator) and "Core" PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices to reveal long-term inflation trends. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Highlights of Today's Market PerformanceThe US stock market is abuzz as technology and communication services sectors dominate the trading landscape, signaling a robust market sentiment. Investors are eyeing opportunities as semiconductor giants and communication services anchor the day’s gains.? Technology and Communication in the GreenSemiconductors: The semiconductor sector is experiencing a notable uptick, with Broadcom (AVGO) up by 1.78% and NVidia (NVDA) climbing 1.37%. This surge highlights renewed confidence in tech-driven growth.Communication Services: Pioneers like Google (GOOG) see a rise of 1.14%, while Meta (META) surges 2.30%, reflecting increasing investor enthusiasm in digital communication platforms.? Mixed Signals Across SectorsConsumer Electronics: Despite an overall positive sentiment, Apple (AAPL) shows modest growth at 0.73%, suggesting cautious optimism in consumer tech.Industrials: Large-scale industrial entities like General Electric (GE) face headwinds, declining by 3.69%, indicative of broader challenges in traditional sectors.Healthcare:Abbott Labs (ABT) is down by 1.03%, representing pressure on medical devices amid contrasting sector dynamics.? Market Sentiment and Emerging TrendsThe overall market sentiment leans positive, supported by developments in technology and digital communications. Investors appear cautiously optimistic, steering funds towards sectors primed for growth while maintaining vigilance due to mixed outcomes in industrial and healthcare segments.? Strategic RecommendationsGiven the vigorous performance in tech, investors may consider increasing exposure to promising semiconductor stocks and established digital communication players. Monitoring industrial stocks for signs of recovery could also provide diversification benefits. As always, stay informed with real-time insights at InvestingLive.com for up-to-the-minute market evaluations and strategic analyses. Diversifying across both growth and stable sectors might be a wise approach in navigating today’s complex market dynamics. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Second reading was 4.3%The final Q2 reading was 3.8%Consumer spending final 3.5% vs 2.5% priorQ3 corporate profits after tax +4.7%GDP final sales +4.5% vs +4.6% expectedInflation metricsGDP deflator vs 3.8% expectedCore PCE final vs 2.9% expectedPCE prices final vs 2.8% expectedReal GDP for the third quarter was revised up to 4.4%. This compares to the initial estimate of 4.3% and the second quarter's final reading of 3.8%. Real GDP was boosted 0.1 percentage point from the initial estimate, primarily reflecting upward revisions to exports and investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending.The overall increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, government spending, and investment.This is a stale report as we're now three weeks beyond the fourth quarter now and pondering how that might lookPercentage point increases and decreases to GDP in the third quarter. yesterday, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker climbed to 5.4% from 5.3% but there are skeptics, in large part because the government shutdown punched a big hole in the data.Contributions to GDP in percentage points:Government +0.38 Net exports +1.62Inventories -0.12Fixed investment +0.15Services +1.7 (health care alone was +0.75 pp)Goods +0.64 This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 198K (revised to 199K)Continuing claims 1849K vs 1900K expectedPrior 1884K (revised to 1875K)This is another stronger than expected report. The US jobless claims have been pointing to a "low hire, low fire" labour market in 2025 as initial claims remained stable, while continuing claims reached new cycle highs. More recently, the jobless claims data showed a notable improvement which also triggered a slightly hawkish repricing in Fed rate cuts expectations. In fact, initial claims fell to cycle lows and the uptrend in continuing claims started to reverse.It's still early to say, but it looks like the labour market is getting better as business uncertainty eases. The next US NFP report is going to be pivotal, and the data suggests that it could be strong.WHAT DO JOBLESS CLAIMS MEASURE?The US Jobless Claims indicator is a high-frequency economic report that tracks how many people are applying for state unemployment benefits. It is considered one of the most timely gauges of the health of the US labor market because it is released every Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, providing data that is only a few days old. The report, issued by the Department of Labor, is divided into two primary categories:1. Initial Jobless ClaimsThe number of new (first-time) applications for unemployment insurance filed by individuals who have recently lost their jobs.This is a leading indicator. It provides the earliest signal of a shifting economy; a steady rise in initial claims often precedes a recession, while a decline suggests the economy is starting to recover.2. Continuing Jobless ClaimsThe number of people who have already filed an initial claim and are still receiving benefits.This is a lagging or coincident indicator. It measures the "persistence" of unemployment. If continuing claims stay high, it means unemployed workers are having a hard time finding new jobs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The key details and excerpts to note from the accounts:Members broadly agreed with the assessment on the economyThat being indicators of underlying inflation had changed little over recent monthsAnd for now, they remain consistent with the 2% medium-term targetThe euro area economy had been resilient alongside global economic activityGeopolitical risks also remained elevatedIt was argued that these developments might raise uncertainty for an extended period and adversely affect the growth dynamics of the euro area economyMembers stressed the urgent need to strengthen the euro area and its economy in the present geopolitical contextThey welcomed the call for governments to prioritise sustainable public finances, strategic investment and growth-enhancing structural reformsOn inflation, members welcomed the fact that inflation had continued to hover around 2% in recent monthsInflation remained in a good place and was expected to stay close to the 2% target for the next few quarters, while also stabilising around target over the medium-termMost members viewed the risks surrounding the inflation outlook as two-sidedSome members viewed inflation risks as tilted to the downsideFrom this perspective, it was highlighted that tariffs may still have some lagged effects likely to materialiseA few members viewed inflation risks as tilted to the upsideFrom this perspective, some upside risks, especially related to wage growth and services inflation, had intensifiedWith regard to communication, members reiterated that the Governing Council was determined to ensure that inflation would stabilise at its 2% target in the medium-termCalibrating monetary policy should not be seen as following a preset path but should be understood as being about continuously assessing risks, trade-offs, the resilience of the economy and the implications of all of this for the inflation outlookFull accountsTo summarise, policymakers pretty much feel that there are risks to both sides of the equation at the moment. While economic conditions may hint at resilience last year, the environment remains fragile not least with a more turbulent geopolitical backdrop. And considering the uncertain nature all of that will have on the inflation path, it's best to remain flexible for the foreseeable future.That's the takeaway for the ECB currently. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Gold's record rally comes to a halt as Trump folds on tariffs. Signs of weakness emerge.European indices rebound after Trump walks back on Greenland threatsThe Australian Dollar surges on a blockbuster jobs report as rate hike bets increaseTrump's Board of Peace is now formally establishedThe TACO shells are on the floor but is the Greenland episode really over?US Supreme Court to back Fed independence over Trump?BoJ preview: Will the central bank intervene in the bond market and sink the yen?Markets:AUD leads, JPY lags on the dayEuropean equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.5%US 10-year yields down 0.8 bps to 4.245%Gold down 0.1% to $4,829.81WTI crude oil down 1.7% to $59.61Bitcoin down 0.3% to $89,924It looks like it's not a case of "all or nothing" but rather "all for nothing". After the heavy threats on Greenland and Europe, Trump walked back on all of that yesterday and we're seeing a perceived calm filter through to European trading today.Still, there are things yet to be made clear. Trump's discussion for a "framework deal" only involved NATO secretary general Rutte. Denmark and Greenland were not in the picture. And Trump is continuing to reaffirm that the US will have "total access" to Greenland, something which doesn't tie up with the supposed "pockets of lands" that was framed.That said, Trump says the details are being worked out. So, we'll just have to wait and see on what all this really means.In any case, the most important takeaway for markets right now is that Trump is not willing to bring down the stock market. And that means no major escalations and tariffs are taken off the table, as well as any potential forceful action.That's seeing a bit of a risk relief for equities but not so much the dollar. The greenback looks to be reeling from a confidence hit amid continued erratic US administrative policies and that's something to be wary about.EUR/USD is up 0.2% to test waters just above 1.1700 with large option expiries at the figure level. Meanwhile, USD/CHF continues to drop in a fall to 0.7925 - down 0.4% on the day. AUD/USD is the lead gainer with the pair up 0.7% to just above 0.6800 after a strong Australian jobs report earlier in the day here.In the equities space, European indices are bouncing back after the drop yesterday in having to capture the Wall Street rebound as well as the better mood today. Most major benchmark indices in the region are up over 1% with S&P 500 futures up 0.5% currenlty.Global bond markets remain calm and steady as well in response. However, all eyes in this space remains on Japan after the intense rout from earlier this week. That has stalled for now but the pressure is still on with the Japanese yen also feeling the pinch. USD/JPY is up 0.2% to 158.63 on the day despite a softer dollar.As for commodities, precious metals have pulled back from the extreme highs yesterday. However, the pullback isn't anything too alarming and perhaps that speaks to how broader markets are feeling right now. There is a sense that you just never know what Trump might pull out of his hat next and as mentioned above, it's not exactly over with regards to Greenland yet as well.Gold is down just 0.1% today to $4,831 in keeping above the $4,800 mark while silver is up 0.6% to $93.67 after the low yesterday touched $90.33. Resillient. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Video: Gold technical analysis on the 4-hour chartGold prices saw heightened volatility following Donald Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, with risk sentiment briefly shifting toward risk-on after Trump explicitly ruled out the use of military force in the Greenland discussion.This article is a follow-up to our previous gold technical analysis on investingLive, revisiting the same technical structure and explaining why gold’s pullback fits cleanly within a broader bullish framework. You can also see the Nasdaq technical analysis today.Big picture on Nasdaq Technical Analysis Today: the same channel, respected againFrom a technical standpoint, nothing has changed structurally.Gold remains inside the same rising channel previously highlighted, with multiple clean touch points confirming its validity. The internal channel and the key dotted level near 4,760–4,762 remain central to the analysis.Prior analysis referenced 4,760Actual reaction low printed at 4,757.1The deviation was less than 1%, technically negligible relative to the moveThis was a textbook retest, not a breakdown.The 4,760 junction on Nasdaq Futures: a decision point, not a predictionAt the time of the prior article, this area was clearly defined as a junction, meaning:It could trigger profit-takingIt could break higher and trap shortsOr it could briefly dip and then recoverThat is exactly what unfolded.On a lower timeframe, price did reject the level, which allowed for a tactical short trade. That trade was shared in real time on the Investing Live Stocks Telegram channel, where:Partial profits were taken quicklyStops were adjusted to breakevenRisk was neutralized even if the remainder was stoppedThis is a classic example of professional trade management, where execution matters more than direction.The bearish-looking pattern that failed Nasdaq bearsFollowing the initial pullback, price formed a pattern that most participants interpret as bearish. This is important.When a widely watched bearish pattern:Fails to follow throughBreaks to the upside insteadThe result is often accelerated upside, driven by trapped positioning.That is what happened next.Gold surged to 4,891.1, forcing remaining shorts to cover at progressively worse prices.Trump, Greenland, and the risk-on impulseThe next catalyst came from the macro side.When Trump stated he would not use military force regarding Greenland, markets briefly flipped into risk-on mode:Equities pushed higherGold saw a pullbackTechnically, that pullback was near-perfect.The low again tested 4,757Price respected the upper boundary of the channelSubsequent candles showed clean touch points and continuation higherThis is exactly how healthy trends behave.What the price action at Nasdaq futures is signaling nowFrom a technical perspective:The structure remains bullishPullbacks are corrective, not impulsiveBuyers continue to defend the channelIt is entirely possible to see:Another brief retest within the channelAdditional consolidation near resistanceBut based on current price behavior, a retest of all-time highs remains the dominant scenario, unless the channel is decisively broken.Why this matters for Nasdaq traders and investors todayThis move in gold is not about guessing headlines. It is about:Identifying key junctionsWatching price reactionManaging risk dynamicallyGold’s reaction to the Davos headlines did not invalidate the trend. It confirmed it.Today's Nasdaq Futures Key levels to keep in focus4,760–4,762: Major structural support and decision zoneChannel upper boundary: Ongoing resistance and validation area4,891: Recent swing high and reference for continuationGold’s pullback after Trump’s Davos speech was orderly, technical, and constructive. The market respected every major level that mattered, and price action continues to support the bullish structure.As always, these are opinions, not promises. Markets move through reactions at key levels, not certainties.For more updates, charts, and trade management insights, visit investingLive.com.Trade and invest at your own risk.Visit investingLive.com for more about stocks, crypto, forex, commodities, trading and investing education or our onging daily live feed for traders and investors. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe S&P 500 rallied hard yesterday as Trump announced that he reached a “framework” of a deal for Greenland and that he won’t go ahead with tariffs. This is the classic TACO trade we’ve been all waiting for. Now that this risk is out of the way, and barring new geopolitical escalations, we should have a clear path to new all-time highs. The focus should now switch back to economic data and the Fed. Some hawkish repricing on strong US data could weigh on the market in the short-term, but those will likely be dip-buying opportunities as long as there’s no re-acceleration in inflation. S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 closed the Monday gap as the market rallied hard after Trump’s de-escalation. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. We can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor support zone around the 6,945 level. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to extend the pullback into the next support around the 6,910 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude the week with the US Flash PMIs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

President Donald Trump used his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos to deliver a message markets were primed to hear: de-escalation geopolitically, and acceleration economically. On Greenland, he was firm on strategic necessity but explicit in ruling out the use of force, which helped strip out immediate geopolitical tail risk while keeping negotiations in play. For markets, that mattered. And European markets even followed through this morning with a bullish tone. At the same time, he leaned heavily into a pro-growth narrative, rejecting the idea that strong economic data should be punished by higher rates. His repeated criticism of the “good news is bad news” dynamic, and his insistence that growth does not automatically mean inflation, landed well with equity investors who have been waiting for confirmation that policy rhetoric is shifting back toward growth tolerance.Equally important for NASDAQ traders was Trump’s framing of technology and AI. He positioned AI as a once-in-a-generation opportunity where the US is leading decisively, with innovation prioritized over restriction and regulation clearly secondary to speed and scale. Combined with repeated references to massive capital investment, factory buildouts, and productivity-driven growth, the speech reinforced the case for risk-on positioning in growth and technology stocks. The immediate post-speech rally reflected this mix: lower perceived geopolitical risk, renewed confidence that strong growth will be rewarded rather than punished, and continued political backing for AI, compute, energy, and infrastructure. With that macro and policy backdrop set, the focus now shifts to the charts - and whether NASDAQ price action confirms what the narrative just reinforced.NASDAQ Technical Analysis: Post-Davos Risk-On Rally Faces Key Technical TestsVideo: NASDAQ technical analysis after Trump’s Davos speech, shown at the top of this pageThe NASDAQ saw a renewed risk-on push following Trump’s Davos speech, with futures currently up roughly 0.85% from yesterday’s close. While crypto has not reacted as strongly, US equity futures, and especially NASDAQ futures, have shown a clear technical response that traders should pay close attention to.This article breaks down the key technical structure, trapped positioning, and the critical price levels that will determine whether this move extends or fades.Big picture: channel break, reversal, and trapped bearsTechnically, NASDAQ futures recently broke down from a well-defined channel, a setup that initially favored shorts. That breakdown was supported by multiple pivot points:Upper channel pivots around July 31 and October 29–30Lower channel reference near November 21After the gap down following January 16, bears had a textbook short setup. However, that structure failed. Yesterday’s reversal, followed by today’s continuation, signals that short sellers are now trapped, which helps explain the strength of the rebound.This is a classic failed breakdown scenario, often followed by either:A sharp continuation higher, orA controlled retracement before the next directional moveMedium-term structure: the black trendline and April bottomFrom the October low, which coincided with earlier tariff-related news, the market also formed a broader structural base, with an important low marked on April 7, 2025.That structure was tested again around November 21, forming a longer-term reference line. Price broke below this structure on June 15, and now the market may attempt to retest that broken area from below, potentially as high as 26,400.Before that happens, however, traders need to focus on nearer-term levels.Near-term resistance: 25,725 as the first decision zoneOne of the most important short-term levels sits at 25,725. This level does not come from the visible channel alone. It comes from volume profile and VWAP-based analysis, making it a likely area for profit-taking and hesitation.If price stalls here, it would be consistent with:A short-covering driven rallyEarly profit-taking by tactical longsThe real line in the sand: 25,400–25,470The most important technical threshold sits lower.The January 20 open and the following day’s close cluster around 25,470The broader decision zone is 25,400If NASDAQ futures close two consecutive 4-hour candles below 25,400, that would signal that:Bears have regained controlPrice has slipped back below the channelThe prior breakdown structure, or bear flag, is active againIn that scenario, the current rally would be classified as a failed bounce.VWAP focus: 25,600 as today’s key intraday junctionFor today’s session, traders should closely monitor 25,600, which sits near:Today’s developing VWAPThe lower boundary of the reclaimed channelThis level is critical because it tells us whether:Bulls are willing to defend value and buy pullbacks, orYesterday’s rally, which began mid-session after the Davos speech, is losing momentumA clean hold above VWAP keeps the bullish continuation scenario alive. A failure opens the door to deeper retracements.Downside retracement roadmap if momentum fadesIf price pulls back, the following levels come into play:25,600 first test25,425 as a partial profit-taking zone25,315, aligned with the previous VWAPThese are not predictions, but reaction zones where traders should watch order flow and price behavior.Upside scenario: all-time high area back in playIf the market absorbs supply above 25,725 and momentum remains constructive, a move toward the all-time high area becomes possible. That zone is likely to attract another wave of profit-takers, especially if the move becomes extended.For now, that scenario is secondary to managing the expected pullback or consolidation.What traders should focus on nowThis analysis is not about forecasting a single outcome. It is about predefined junctions and price reaction.Key levels to watch:25,725 – near-term resistance and profit-taking zone25,600 – today’s VWAP and intraday decision point25,400–25,470 – structural line in the sand26,400 – potential higher-timeframe retest if strength persistsCome and check out more gems you'll only see on investingLive Stocks Telegram Channel, including trade ideas. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US Dollar recovered a little yesterday as Trump announced that he reached a “framework” of a deal for Greenland and that he won’t go ahead with tariffs. Moreover, we got Fed’s Cook hearing yesterday and the Supreme Court appeared likely to deny Trump's request to immediately fire her. Barring another geopolitical escalation somewhere, the focus will switch to the US data and the Fed’s interest rate path for 2026. The data has been improving recently, especially on the labour market side. If we more of such or even better, that will likely keep supporting the US Dollar as rate cuts get slowly priced out. Right now, traders expect a total of 47 bps of easing by year-end.INR:The Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US Dollar, and the recent technical breakouts increased the momentum into new record lows as RBI’s interventions continue to fail.The Rupee bounced yesterday as global risk sentiment improved after Trump scrapped his tariffs threats over Greenland. The relief didn’t last long though as the INR started to weaken again. In terms of fundamentals, nothing has changed.The latest India’s annual inflation rate increased to 1.33% in December compared to 0.71% in November. This is still way below the RBI’s 4% target but closer to the bottom of their tolerance band at 2%. Traders don’t expect the RBI to deliver another rate cut at the upcoming meeting in February. On the trade front, traders are watching for potential tariff hikes on India after Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on any country doing business with Iran as the US President continues to put pressure on the regime. India has been among the largest Iran’s trade partners in recent years, so traders are watching for the risk of another escalation. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDINR rallied into a new all-time high yesterday and it’s now approaching the upper bound of the channel near the 92.00 handle. If we get there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the channel to position for a drop back into the bottom trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward minor trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the lower bound of the channel, with a break of the 91.00 handle giving the sellers more conviction.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the buyers will look for dip-buying opportunities around the trendline, while the sellers will continue to wait for a break lower or for the price to come into the upper bound of the channel.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude the week with the US Flash PMIs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.