Some of the dumbest people in the world have been running around touting the 5.4% forecast from the Atlanta Fed as if it was a real economic number.Even Fed Chair Jerome Powell had to throw cold water on it yesterday, highlighting that Q1 GDP was negative and that the US was on track for 2-3% GDP growth this year.What made the cheerleading particularly preposterous is that it was based on thinned out US economic data due to the US government shutdown. It was also highly leveraged to a one-month improvement in October trade balance.Guess what? That month-month reversed in November and suddenly the GDP forecast is down to 4.2%.Now I think it will still be a good quarter but we also need to wait on inventory data. The correlate to lower imports is often inventory drawdowns and that's often a big drag on GDP forecasts that's also not (yet) in the GDPNow estimate. Moreover, if we get a December trade balance number like the latest one, we'll be on a 3-handle.Here's the Atlanta Fed:The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 4.2 percent on January 29, down from 5.4 percent on January 26. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, an increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 6.4 percent to 7.1 percent was more than offset by decreases in the nowcasts of fourth-quarter personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.2 percent to 3.1 percent and the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth from 1.88 percentage points to 0.65 percentage points.The next update is due Monday. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The gold market has never seen anything like this. The moves over the past hour or so are historic as we've seen a nearly $500 intraday swing.There is no real catalyst here and that's what makes the gold market so dangerous right now. Volatility cuts both ways and when you get unprecedented moves to the upside, there is always the risk of the reverse.The old adage is that bull markets go up the escalator and correct on the elevator. That hasn't really been the case in gold as it hasn't had many sharp corrections but perhaps we're getting a taste of that today.Impressively though, the bids at $5140 have been strong and it's bonces an impressive $160 from there.Naturally the moves are even more insane in the silver market.I think the worries in market really started in stocks and crypto. The rout in Microsoft today is causing many market participants to re-evaluate risk levels and take down leverage. Bitcoin is down 5.5% to $84,400 and that's a reminder that markets can cause real pain, particularly when valuations are high.Microsoft's earnings report wasn't even bad today but the decline is the seventh worst ever. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Is OpenAI suddenly toxic?The market is sensing that ChatGPT is going to lose the generative AI race because they can't keep up with the spending of Google and others. Plus they don't have the data and integration of their megacap competitors.Microsoft posted a 24% rise in y/y earnings today but shares are down 11.5%. That makes today the 9th worst day ever for Microsoft stock by by far the largest single-day drop in market cap.In fact, this is the second-largest single day market cap destruction after the Jan 28, 2025 decline in NVDA. Here is the chart of the worst ever days for market cap wipeouts. It doesn't include MSFT stock today but it's down around $400 billion.The company has bet big on OpenAI and the market is questioning the wisdom of that, with new disclosures revealing that OpenAI accounts for 45% of Microsoft's total long-term backlog. This unusually high concentration has raised concerns about Microsoft's exposure to a single partner, especially amidst questions about OpenAI's future funding needs.In the core business, Azure revenue grew by 38–39% (beating guidance slightly) but decelerated compared to the previous quarter (40%) and barely surpassed the high expectations built into the stock price. Analysts at Evercore noted that investors are now demanding "clearer evidence" that the elevated spending is translating into faster growth, which wasn't sufficiently visible in this report.The primary driver of the negative sentiment is the 66% year-over-year jump in capital spending, which hit a record $37.5 billion for the quarter. Investors are spooked by the sheer scale of the spending on AI infrastructure without seeing a proportional acceleration in immediate revenue. The market may also question whether MSFT can execute after the terrible co-pilot rollout.Overall, this isn't a great sign of market sentiment and the AI trade and you can see that in a 2.4% decline in the Nasdaq. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

"I think the market is underpricing the risks here," I wrote yesterday, regarding oil prices, Iran and the United States.Today, WTI crude oil is up more than 5% to $66.39 as it surges to the highest since August.Yesterday we got a sense of what the US was demanding from Iran and it hardly looked acceptable, or even a basis for real negotiations.Today, Axios reports that Saudi and Israeli officials are visiting Washington to discuss possible US strikes on Iran.Just now, EU foreign ministers took the step of designating Iran's revolutionary guard as a terrorist organization. There is some major smoke here and Reuters is reporting that US strikes may target Iran's ballistic missiles. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was -1.3%Ex transport +0.2% vs -0.2% priorRevisions to November durable goods orders:Durable goods +5.3% vs 5.3% prelimNon-defense capital goods orders ex-air +0.4% vs +0.7% prelimThe factory orders report is good news but much of the gain disappears when you strip out transportation, which is volatile. The downgrade to November non-defense cap goods orders ex air is a mild disappointment.Background:The Full Report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders—commonly known as the Factory Orders report—is a comprehensive monthly release from the U.S. Census Bureau. It serves as a vital barometer for the health of the U.S. industrial sector, tracking the dollar value of new purchase orders placed with domestic manufacturers.Unlike the earlier "Advance" Durable Goods report, which only covers items intended to last three years or more (such as cars, appliances, and aircraft), the Factory Orders report provides a complete picture by including non-durable goods. These are fast-moving items like food, chemicals, and textiles. Roughly half of all factory orders are durable goods, making this report essential for understanding total manufacturing demand.A critical feature of the Factory Orders report is that it contains the final revisions to the durable goods data released approximately one week prior. Because the initial "Advance" report is based on early, incomplete survey samples, it is notoriously volatile. The Factory Orders release incorporates more detailed data and a larger sample size, often leading to significant adjustments in the durable goods figures.Also released was the wholesale inventories report:Inventories +0.2% vs +0.2% expectedWholesale sales +1.3% vs -0.4% priorThese numbers are solid and should help GDP, thought today's weak trade balance report will undoubtedly lead to a (large) downward revision to the Q4 GDP tracker from the Atlanta Fed later today. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Sector Overview: Mixed Signals Across Key SectorsThe tech sector witnessed significant turbulence today, highlighted by Microsoft (MSFT) dropping sharply by 9.40%. This decline underscores a challenging environment for software infrastructure players. On the flip side, Meta (META) surged by 10.00%, buoying the communication services sector. Semiconductor stocks remained relatively stable with Nvidia (NVDA) inching up by 0.05% and AMD advancing by 2.24%, showcasing selective investor confidence.? Software StrugglesIntuit (INTU) dipped 5.54%, reflecting broader concerns in the software application space.Adobe (ADBE) lost 1.82%, contributing to the sector's negative outlook.? Uplift in Communication ServicesGoogle (GOOG) rose by 1.17%, confirming optimistic sentiment in this space.T-Mobile (TMUS) and Verizon (VZ) climbed 0.61% and 0.89% respectively, highlighting strength in telecom services.Market Mood and Trends: A Day of DivergenceToday's market displayed a diverse array of performances with investor sentiment swinging based on sector dynamics. While tech faced challenges, communication services and selective semiconductors provided glimmers of hope.Tesla (TSLA) posted a 1.24% gain, offering confidence in the consumer cyclical sector, which balanced against losses seen in others like Amazon (AMZN), down by 0.23%.Strategic Recommendations: Navigating Through VolatilityInvestors might consider rebalancing portfolios with exposure to strong-performing communication services or semiconductor stocks while staying cautious about the currently volatile tech infrastructure sector. Remaining adaptable in this fluctuating environment is key:Explore potential growth stocks like META in communication services.Monitor semiconductor trends; consider opportunities with AMD.Stay updated on real-time developments with InvestingLive.com to refine strategies in a dynamic market landscape.The ever-evolving market underscores the importance of diversification and vigilance, ensuring investors remain poised to seize opportunities amid potential risks. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

David Tepper is one of the great hedge fund managers and made a killing last year in China stocks.In November, filings revealed he to a huge stake in appliance-maker Whirlpool Corp, buying a position worth $432 million at a reported price of $76.60. That's about 10% of the company, which makes brands like Maytag, Bauknect and KitchenAid.it's a company that I've written about extensively over the years but not as a stock. It's because appliance spending is a good economic barometer.There was bad news today in the earnings report and shares are down 8.5% to $74.00 in the pre-market.The company is generally seen as a proxy for housing, as new home owners tend to buy appliances. That sector is in a brutal recession right now due to the post-pandemic rise in interest rates.Perhaps the Tepper investment is a bet on a housing rebound or normalization as we're certainly near a trough (he's usually a macro investor). Perhaps he thinks Trump will stack the Fed and lower interest rates by 150 bps. Perhaps it's a tariff re-shoring story as foreign appliance imports are locked out.It's not clear as he hasn't gone on the record with the reasons for the share purchase. Here is the Q4 company deck, making a case for what it's doing right.In any case, company fundamentals aren't great. That company's Q4 results:Revenue $4.10B vs $4.27B with 2025 full-year sales results down 6.5% y/yOngoing EPS $1.10 vs $1.52 expected2026 revenue guidance $15.3-15.6B vs $15.6B consensus2026 ongoing EPS guidance $7.00 vs $7.11-$7.21 consensusThe spin in the release looks forward:“With a challenging 2025 behind us, our confidence for 2026 is based on our recent successful product launches, reduced promotional intensity and a gradual recovery of the housing market," says CEO Mark Bitzer in the release.If it can hit those targets, it's fairly cheap, trading at 10.5x ongoing earnings and a nearly 10% FCF yield at the guidance midpoint. On free cash flow, the company is aiming to generate 7% of sales, which would $1.14 billion at its $16.3B sales target, or a 25% FCF yield.Another promising spot is price-to-sales at 0.3x. Historically, it's traded in a 0.4-0.6x range.The problem is that net debt to EBITDA is at 5.5x and all the free cash (or asset sales) will need to go to deleveraging with the company talking about $400m of debt payments this year (or nearly all the forecast free cash flow).On the macro side, here is the regional look:North American Q4 sales down 0.9% y/y, with the company highlighting Canada as a weak spotLatam sales down 4.6% y/yGlobal sales up 8.0% y/yOverall, it continues to be an interesting name but I still find it surprising that Tepper is making a play as it's cheap but not extremely cheap and it's hard to have much confidence in management.The good news is that today you can buy it cheaper than one of the all-time great fund managers. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was -29.4BGoods trade vs -56.57B priorThe big improvement in October data led to a jump in Q4 GDP forecasts.Separately, the Q3 productivity report was released:Productivity vs 4.9% expectedUnit labor costs vs -1.9% expectedThe US International Trade in Goods and Services report, commonly known as the trade balance report, is a monthly economic indicator jointly released by the US Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It measures the difference between the monetary value of exports and imports.A positive value indicates a trade surplus, while a negative value—a consistent reality for the U.S. since 1975—represents a trade deficit. The report is a critical component for calculating gross domestic product and provides insight into consumer demand, manufacturing health, and the US dollar’s strength in global markets. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 200K (revised to 210K)Continuing claims 1827K vs 1860K expectedPrior 1849K (revised to 1865K)It's another great report, especially on the continuing claims side which could point to lower unemployment rate.The US jobless claims have been pointing to a "low hire, low fire" labour market in 2025 as initial claims remained stable, while continuing claims reached new cycle highs. More recently, the jobless claims data showed a notable improvement. In fact, initial claims fell to cycle lows and the uptrend in continuing claims started to reverse. It's still early to say, but it looks like the labour market is getting better and better as business uncertainty eases.WHAT DO JOBLESS CLAIMS MEASURE?The US Jobless Claims indicator is a high-frequency economic report that tracks how many people are applying for state unemployment benefits. It is considered one of the most timely gauges of the health of the US labor market because it is released every Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, providing data that is only a few days old. The report, issued by the Department of Labor, is divided into two primary categories:1. Initial Jobless ClaimsThe number of new (first-time) applications for unemployment insurance filed by individuals who have recently lost their jobs.This is a leading indicator. It provides the earliest signal of a shifting economy; a steady rise in initial claims often precedes a recession, while a decline suggests the economy is starting to recover.2. Continuing Jobless ClaimsThe number of people who have already filed an initial claim and are still receiving benefits.This is a lagging or coincident indicator. It measures the "persistence" of unemployment. If continuing claims stay high, it means unemployed workers are having a hard time finding new jobs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The full quote from Trump himself:"Jerome “Too Late” Powell again refused to cut interest rates, even though he has absolutely no reason to keep them so high. He is hurting our Country, and its National Security. We should have a substantially lower rate now that even this moron admits inflation is no longer a problem or threat. He is costing America Hundreds of Billions of Dollar a year in totally unnecessary and uncalled for INTEREST EXPENSE. Because of the vast amounts of money flowing into our Country because of Tariffs, we should be paying the LOWEST INTEREST RATE OF ANY COUNTRY IN THE WORLD. Most of these countries are low interest rate paying cash machines, thought of as elegant, solid, and prime, only because the U.S.A. allows them to be. The Tariffs being charged to them, while bringing in $BILLIONS to us, still allows most of them to have a significant trade surplus, though much smaller, with our beautiful, formerly abused Country. In other words, I have been very nice, kind, and gentle to countries all over the World. With a mere flip of the pen, $BILLIONS more would come into the U.S.A., and these countries would have to go back to making money the old fashioned way, not on the back of America. I hope they all appreciate, although many don’t, what our great Country has done for them. The Fed should substantially lower interest rates, NOW! Tariffs have made America strong and powerful again, far stronger and more powerful than any other Nation. Commensurate with this strength, both financial and otherwise, WE SHOULD BE PAYING LOWER INTEREST RATES THAN ANY OTHER COUNTRY IN THE WORLD! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP"Him coming out to say this isn't unexpected at all. In fact, the only surprising thing is that it took this long. You would think that he would have something ready to go at Powell already yesterday right after the Fed decision.But yeah, there isn't anything new from what he's saying here. These are all points that Trump has made before in lambasting Powell for not bending to his political will.It was also presumed that Trump might've used this to tee up an opportunity to announce his pick of the next Fed chair. But according to Bessent yesterday, that is likely to only come next week instead. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe S&P 500 continues to print new all-time highs as risk sentiment remains positive amid lower geopolitical tensions, a neutral Fed and improving US growth. These drivers are supportive for the stock market and will likely keep underpinning prices to new record highs unless we get a hawkish repricing in the next couple of weeks.In fact, we are now entering a pivotal month when we will get new tier one data including the US NFP and CPI reports. What could weigh on the market in the short-term is a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations caused by strong data. Traders are pricing in 48 bps of easing by year-end compared to 25 bps projected by the Fed. In case we get strong data, the market will need to reprice that at least to get in line with the Fed’s view. If the data continues to surprise to the upside or comes out too hot, then we could see all the rate cut bets getting quickly trimmed.Today we have the US Jobless Claims data on the agenda. Very strong figures could weigh in the short-term but it will likely just offer a dip-buying opportunity. In the bigger picture, as long as inflation continues to slowly head towards target, the stock market should remain supported amid the Fed’s dovish reaction function. A quick deterioration in the labour market though could trigger growth fears and lead to a correction.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 recently touched a new all-time high before pulling back a bit. The buyers will want to see a breakout to increase the bullish bets into new record highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in around these levels with a defined risk above the record high to position for a correction back into the 6818 level next.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the 6880 level next.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the buyers will either pile in on a break above the all-time high or wait for a pullback into the trendline, while the sellers will look for shorts around the record high and on a break below the trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PPI report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Dollar recovers some poise on the day, some light profit-taking in precious metalsIt's not just Trump's hawkish rhetoric against Iran pushing up oil pricesEuropean stocks rebound but DAX dragged down by SAP, DeutschePlenty still to come for markets in wrapping up JanuaryBOC governor Macklem says there is no easy way to manage uncertainty from Trump policiesGreg Michalowski to Lead Trading Workshops at iFX EXPO Dubai 2026Markets:CAD leads, GBP lags on the dayEuropean equities higher, but DAX down on SAP, Deutsche; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%US 10-year yields flat at 4.249%Gold up 2.5% to $5,538WTI crude oil up 2.3% to $64.70Bitcoin down 1.6% to $87,878It was a relatively quieter and calmer session, with markets settling down after the eventful happenings yesterday. The dollar was beaten down earlier in the day with yesterday's respite seemingly short-lived. However, the greenback is recovering some poise today to keep nearly little changed with some profit-taking seen in gold and silver as well.EUR/USD is facing some added resistance now near 1.2000 after ECB policymakers stepped in with some verbal interjections. The pair is flat at 1.1950 with the high earlier touching 1.1996. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is also flattish at 153.35 after holding closer to 153.00 at the start of the session. Tokyo intervention risks remain heightened, so do keep a watchful eye on this one.Besides that, USD/CHF also bounced back from 0.7650 to be flat at 0.7680 now and AUD/USD is only marginally up by 0.1% to 0.7047 - down from a high of 0.7095 earlier in the day.All of this comes as we see precious metals cool from the highs seen in the early hours of Europe. Gold moved up to near $5,600 again before the profit-taking hit and we saw a drop to $5,470 before coming back up to $5,538 again now. Meanwhile, silver hit fresh records of just above $120 before dropping back to $115 levels and then coming back up now to hold near the highs.The volatility swings continue in the precious metals space and even if it may seem calmer today, conditions are still much more volatile than before.Elsewhere, European equities are showing signs of a rebound after the drop yesterday. The CAC 40 index is up 0.5% with luxury stocks steadying after yesterday's heavy selling on disappointing LVMH earnings. The DAX index is the only laggard with some red flags from SAP earnings, causing shares to be down by 11% - its steepest drop since 2020.As for US futures, tech shares are holding firmer at the balance after key earnings yesterday from Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures are both up 0.2% on the day.While things are settling down, we're far from done with the week. There's still plenty to focus on as seen below: This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe Nasdaq is approaching new all-time highs as risk sentiment remains positive amid lower geopolitical tensions, a neutral Fed and improving US growth. These drivers are supportive for the stock market and will likely take us to new record highs unless we get a hawkish repricing in the next couple of weeks.In fact, we are now entering a pivotal month when we will get new tier one data including the US NFP and CPI reports. What could weigh on the market in the short-term is a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations caused by strong data. Traders are pricing in 48 bps of easing by year-end compared to 25 bps projected by the Fed. In case we get strong data, the market will need to reprice that at least to get in line with the Fed’s view. If the data continues to surprise to the upside or comes out too hot, then we could see all the rate cut bets getting quickly trimmed. In the bigger picture, as long as inflation continues to slowly head towards target, the stock market should remain supported amid the Fed’s dovish reaction function. A quick deterioration in the labour market though could trigger growth fears and lead to a correction.NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq is approaching the all-time highs. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the highs to position for a drop into the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new record highs.NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will need a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 25,000 level next. NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor counter-trendline acting as resistance. The sellers will likely continue to lean on it to target a pullback into the major upward trendline, while the buyers will want to see a breakout to increase the bullish bets into new record highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PPI report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

There is unusual potential for a new shock, a new disruption due to Trump policiesGeopolitical risks are elevated and attacks on the Fed's independence is another key riskThere is no easy way to manage this uncertaintyA Fed that is not delivering predictability is not going to be good for anybodyUnpredictability of US policy has dented dollar as the global safe assetUSD/CAD exchange rate has not been a big preoccupation for us in recent yearsBut if USD/CAD exchange rate changes a lot, that will affect our projectionsAnd we will have to take that into accountWe are feeling like there are more things that can go wrong around that forecast, it is more vulnerableThat's an honest take as most major central banks have a lot to think about now, and not just about domestic issues. As Macklem mentioned, Trump making waves on the geopolitical scene and attacking the Fed's independence are two things that cannot be overlooked. And that is not only for the respective impact on their own, but also on the likes of markets with precious metals surging and the dollar tumbling.Besides the above, Macklem was also asked about whether risks are more tilted towards a rate cut or rate hike later in the year. However, he chose to play it safe in commenting that:"In order to comment on the balance, you need to be able to assign probabilities to the risks. And to be honest, I think we're finding that difficult." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The dollar started the day relatively poorly but is now bouncing back modestly in European morning trade. The greenback has pared declines across the board and is keeping near unchanged levels on the day now. EUR/USD traded to as high as 1.1996 earlier but is now back down to 1.1950 levels while AUD/USD is back down to 0.7047 after having been up as high as 0.7094 earlier in the day.Besides that, USD/JPY is keeping back above the 153.00 mark to 153.30 with the pair having started the session near the figure level. And USD/CHF is also just off lows around 0.7650 to 0.7677 at the moment.For the euro, the 1.2000 line is a crucial one to watch with ECB policymakers starting to step in with some verbal interjections on the currency. Meanwhile, yen-tervention risks remain heightened with Tokyo officials still waiting in the wings to step in and push back against any notable pressures on the currency. They were already not too happy about USD/JPY holding the line at the 100-day moving average on Tuesday and made sure to break that resolve shortly after. The key level is seen at 153.71 currently.Despite the slight recovery here, the dollar is not quite out of the woods yet. As mentioned earlier today, the same drivers dragging down the dollar are still very much in play. And that will keep the dollar in a struggling spot barring a sharp correction in the precious metals space.There is some light profit-taking there with gold backing down after a trip to test waters just above $5,600 earlier today. A second push in the early hours of Europe saw price come close again to test the big figure before some selling came about to send the precious metal down to a low of $5,473 in the past hour.It's the same story for silver as well with price there easing to $116.96 after a brief run to clip above the $120 mark in touching a fresh record high of $120.47 - which came at the same time as gold's second run up in the early hours of Europe. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWOil prices are now at the highest levels since September 2025 as Trump's hawkish rhetoric against Iran continues to underpin the market. Yesterday, Trump said on his Truth Social account that time was running out for Iran and that the next attack would be far worse "that last year's). Trump has been threatening Iran with military strikes unless they negotiate a deal over Iran's nuclear programme. The New York Times reported that negotiations have made no progress and there are no indications that the Iranians are preparing to give in to Trump’s demands.This geopolitical risk has been a tailwind for the market but there are also signs that demand is rising. In fact, US breakevens have been going up in a straight line since December and that generally happens when the market expects economic conditions to improve. Therefore, it's not just a supply side story due to the geopolitical risk premium but there's also demand doing its part.In fact, US growth has been surprising to the upside and US jobless claims have been pointing to an improvement in the labour market conditions. If this continues, oil prices will remain supported even without Iran's risk. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that crude oil broke above the swing high around the 62.37 level and extended the gains into new highs as the buyers piled in to target the 66.44 level next. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop back into the 62.37 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 70.00 handle next.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to target a pullback into the 62.37 level next. The red lines define the average daily range for today. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

European equities had a poor showing yesterday with France's benchmark CAC 40 index leading the drop. Luxury stocks were the main culprits after LVMH disappointed on earnings with a reported 13.3% drop in profit last year. Things are looking better today with most major indices recovering a chunk of the declines already. The only exception being Germany's benchmark DAX index, which is keeping lower once again.Here's a snapshot before we dive into the drag in Germany:Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX -1.0%France CAC 40 +0.6%UK FTSE +0.5%Spain IBEX +0.3%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6%In terms of top performers, shares of miners are once again outperforming amid another surge higher in precious metals today. The Eurostoxx basic resources index has been on a one-way climb since last year, in mirroring the run in gold and silver prices. Things have also gone parabolic to start the year as seen below:While big tech results in Wall Street were mixed, German software maker SAP is enduring a rough morning with shares down over 11%. That will mark its biggest daily drop since 2020, even as Q4 revenue was in-line with mark estimates.However, there were several concerns for investors. The company signaled that cloud backlog growth would slightly decelerate in 2026, instead of investor hopes that it would point to an acceleration instead. And touching on cloud backlog, SAP's current cloud backlog only grew by 25% - missing on analyst estimates of at least 26% or higher.To cushion the blow at least, SAP did announce a massive €10 billion share buyback program for February but it's not enough to lift sentiment it would seem. That especially with concerns and massive scrutiny on AI-related companies to "show me the money" now instead of waiting for longer, which was the phase last year.Besides that, Deutsche Bank is also seeing shares down over 2% despite posting its largest annual profit since 2007. That as German prosecutors raided the bank's offices in Frankfurt and Berlin amid an inquiry into money laundering. That brought the shares of Germany's largest bank down yesterday and is again proving to be a drag again today. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

S&P 500 Trader Update – Order Flow Signals a Grinding, Selective AdvanceLive update – Jan 29, 2026 | 09:06 ETThe S&P 500 continues to edge higher, but recent order flow suggests the market is working through supply rather than accelerating cleanly. Price is holding firm, yet upside progress has become more uneven, with buyers and sellers both actively engaging near current levels. This type of behavior is common when markets approach important reference areas and liquidity pockets.Recent order flow activity shows that upside attempts are being met by fairly quick counter-responses, preventing sustained momentum from building. Buyers are still stepping in and defending the market, but their efforts have not yet produced the kind of follow-through that typically characterizes a fresh expansion phase. At the same time, selling pressure has so far failed to trigger downside continuation, reinforcing the idea that this is rotation and digestion, not a breakdown.orderFlow Intel Interpretation and ScoreorderFlow Intel score (near-term): +1This score reflects a market that remains slightly biased higher, but only marginally so. Long positions are not invalidated, yet the current environment favors tactical positioning and patience rather than aggressive momentum chasing. The score is capped by signs of buying fatigue and repeated seller responses on strength. To improve, the market would need to show clearer upside acceptance and stronger participation. Conversely, an increase in selling pressure without quick recovery would likely push the score back toward neutral.How This Fits the Bigger PictureThis grinding behavior aligns well with what we are seeing in NASDAQ futures, which are trading just below their all-time high at 26,399, with price near 26,237 at the time of this update. Markets often drift toward such widely watched levels to test nearby liquidity. A slow push higher in NASDAQ to probe that zone would be consistent with the S&P 500 continuing to grind higher as well, even if the path remains choppy.A Quick Educational Note for TradersStrong markets do not always move higher through sharp rallies. Near highs, they often advance by absorbing liquidity through overlapping price action, frustrating both late buyers and early sellers. In these conditions, chasing strength tends to underperform, while waiting for clearer confirmation or better locations often improves outcomes.So the S&P 500 remains supported, but order flow indicates that upside progress is earned, not effortless. This is a market that rewards discipline, selectivity, and confirmation, rather than urgency.This update is based on orderFlow Intel, a proprietary decision-support framework developed at investingLive.com. It is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Read the previous part of this article before the above update:S&P 500 Trader Update. Grinding Higher, But Momentum Is SelectiveThe S&P 500 continues to trade constructively, but recent price action suggests the market is grinding rather than accelerating. Earlier buying pressure has cooled, and order flow now reflects more two-sided trade near recent highs. This is typical behavior when markets approach important reference levels and liquidity pockets.From a short-term perspective, upside attempts are still present, but follow-through has become more selective. Volume remains healthy, yet price progress has slowed, signaling that buyers are active but increasingly meeting supply. This does not imply a bearish reversal, but it does raise the importance of patience and confirmation.Why NASDAQ Matters HereAt the same time, NASDAQ futures are trading close to their all-time high at 26,399, with price currently near 26,237 at the time of this analysis. Markets often gravitate toward such widely watched levels to test liquidity sitting just above and below them. A continued grind higher in NASDAQ to probe that area would be consistent with the broader theme of slow, methodical upside rather than impulsive breakout behavior.If NASDAQ does push into that all-time-high zone, it would support the idea that the S&P 500 can continue to edge higher as well, even if the move remains uneven.What Traders Should WatchUpside: Continued higher highs with steady participation would keep the bullish structure intact, but acceleration is needed to improve confidence.Pullbacks: Shallow pullbacks that stabilize quickly would suggest consolidation rather than distribution.Risk signals: Increased selling pressure without quick recovery would indicate that the grind higher is losing sponsorship.Markets do not always move higher through strong rallies. Often, especially near key highs, they advance through grinding price action, where liquidity is absorbed gradually. This environment tends to punish late entries and rewards traders who wait for clearer confirmation or better locations.orderFlow Intel Snapshot – Why the Market Is Grinding, Not BreakingFrom an orderFlow Intel perspective, the S&P 500 continues to show constructive but increasingly selective behavior. Earlier in the session, buying pressure was clearly dominant, with multiple higher-timeframe bars printing positive delta on expanding volume, confirming initiative buyers were still willing to transact at higher prices. However, as price moved closer to recent highs, that dynamic shifted. Volume remained elevated, but delta efficiency deteriorated, meaning more contracts were traded for less net price progress. This transition from expansion to two-sided trade is a common signal that the market is entering a late-phase or rotational environment, rather than an early-stage breakout.More recently, order flow data showed a notable burst of selling pressure, with one higher-volume bar printing a meaningfully negative delta, followed by only modest positive responses. Importantly, buyers did not immediately regain control with the same intensity seen earlier in the move. That does not point to a bearish reversal, but it does indicate that upside continuation now requires additional proof, rather than being assumed. In practical terms, the market is still supported, but upside progress has become harder and more conditional.orderFlow Intel Score and InterpretationorderFlow Intel score (near-term): +1This score reflects a market that is still biased higher, but only mildly so. A score in this range signals that longs are not invalidated, yet the environment favors tactical positioning and patience rather than aggressive momentum chasing. The score is capped by signs of buying fatigue and rising two-way trade near key reference levels. To move the score higher, the market would need to show renewed upside acceptance, with stronger participation and cleaner follow-through. Conversely, a further increase in selling pressure without quick recovery would pull the score back toward neutral.Why This Matters for TradersOrder flow is particularly valuable in environments like this, where price alone can be misleading. A grinding market can continue higher, but it often does so while absorbing liquidity and punishing late entries. The current orderFlow Intel read suggests that risk is asymmetric for traders who chase strength, while better opportunities are likely to emerge either after clearer acceptance higher or following a controlled pullback that resets participation.Earnings Crosscurrents Add to the Selective TapeIndividual stock reactions to earnings continue to underline how selective this market has become. META shares surged +7.7% following its latest earnings release, while IBM jumped +7.4%, highlighting pockets of strong investor conviction. LRCX also traded sharply higher, up +6.2% in extended hours after beating expectations. TSLA gained a more modest +2.4% after its Q4 results, reflecting a more balanced reception.On the other side of the ledger, not all earnings were rewarded. MSFT shares tumbled −6.6%, marking their worst post-earnings reaction in more than three years, while NOW fell −5.6% in extended trading despite reporting strong results. These sharply diverging outcomes reinforce a key theme for index traders: headline index strength can mask significant dispersion underneath, with winners and losers reacting very differently to similar macro conditions.This kind of dispersion often coincides with late-cycle or high-level index trading, where capital rotates rapidly rather than moving uniformly across the market.Broader Market Context and What’s Still AheadBeyond earnings, markets are navigating a dense and evolving backdrop. Traders are tracking the main events shaping today’s session, while also keeping an eye on what remains ahead as January wraps up (plenty still to come!), including macro releases and policy developments that could influence near-term risk appetite. Political headlines are also back in focus, with reports that Trump and Schumer may be approaching a possible deal to avert a shutdown, a factor that could temporarily ease uncertainty.Globally, risk sentiment received an additional boost after China property shares jumped on reports of easing the “three red lines” rules, adding to the broader narrative of selective risk-on behavior rather than broad-based enthusiasm.For another walkthrough of today’s market setup and key themes, traders can also reference this Nasdaq video update covering the evolving landscape and major catalysts. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US Dollar remains on the backfoot as the bearish momentum set by the USD/JPY intervention risks kept weighing on the greenback. US Treasury Secretary Bessent yesterday said that they are not intervening in dollar-yen now and that gave the dollar a bit of a boost although it didn’t last long.The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected and upgraded a bit its current economic outlook in the statement to reflect the recent economic data. There was no surprise other than Fed’s Waller voting for a cut. That might have been just his last attempt to secure the nomination for the Fed chair job. Time will tell. Fed Chair Powell didn’t offer much in terms of forward guidance and just stuck to the script by reiterating the neutral stance and data-dependency. Today, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures which could give the dollar some support if they come out strong. Otherwise, the greenback might remain on the backfoot until further notice. JPY:On the JPY side, nothing has changed. As a reminder, the BoJ left interest rates unchanged as expected last week and upgraded slightly growth and inflation forecasts due to the expansionary fiscal policies. Governor Ueda didn’t offer anything new in terms of forward guidance as he just repeated that they will keep raising rates if the economic outlook is realised. He also added that April price behaviour will be a factor to mull over a rate hike. This suggests that April is when they expect to deliver another rate hike if the data supports such a move. The Japanese Yen strengthened across the board solely because of talks of “rate checks” as market participants feared an imminent intervention, which eventually never came. Interventions don't fix the fundamental problems, so the JPY should continue to weaken until the BoJ turns more hawkish.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY is consolidating below the key 154.50 support now turned resistance. The sellers will likely step in around the resistance with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to pile in for a rally back into the 159.00 handle.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the strong bearish momentum has faded recently. There’s not much else we can add here as the sellers would have a better risk to reward setup around the resistance, while the buyers will look for a break higher to pile in for new highs.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current price action. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the major trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the Tokyo CPI and the US PPI report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

As intervention risks continue to stay heightened, there is plenty of uncertainty with regards to the USD/JPY outlook in the short-term. What is the trigger point for the ministry of finance (MOF) to take action? At what levels will they be comfortable with USD/JPY trading in the aftermath? Without any real change to the fundamental drivers, what happens when the pair rebounds higher after a few weeks/months?The Takaichi trade is still the main risk for the Japanese yen at the moment and Tokyo officials certainly know that. The good news that they can bank on right now is that the US dollar is also at weak extremes and looking very vulnerable. And also the fact since the Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting, the bond market has calmed down considerably.So far, they have only gone as far as performing a couple of 'rate checks' since last Friday. That is keeping the yen currency from crumbling, with it having fallen alongside the dollar before that. But even so, all we're seeing is a push down in USD/JPY from 159.00 levels to 153.00 levels currently. The pair is still up 4% from the gap higher in early October, which marked the commencement of the Takaichi trade.So, what happens now to USD/JPY?BofA argues that there is a balance to be struck and that might fit with a USD/JPY range of around 145 to 155 in the near-term."According to the Tankan survey, large manufacturers assume average USD/JPY rate for FY25 to be 146.50.. USD/JPY's drop below 145 appears undesirable in the near-term. 145-155 range may strike a fine balance between stability in the equity market and the bond market. However, a volatile selloff in USD/JPY below 150 could lead to a sharp selloff in equities, which increases the bar for intervention with USD/JPY below 155."Looking further out, the firm notes that perhaps Tokyo officials might want the currency pair to keep lower than that. However, BofA says that it will be tough to sustain such a move with just intervention alone:"In the medium-term, the government may be comfortable with a lower USD/JPY rate but not lower than manufactures' "breakeven" USD/JPY rate, which was 127 as of late 2024/early 2025. 135-145 may be a desired range though this would require something more than unilateral FX intervention."As a reminder, Japan last intervened to prop up the yen currency back in July 2024. That helped to push USD/JPY down from above 160 to test 140 in about two months. But right after that, the pair managed a rebound all the way back up to near 159 by the time we got to January 2025.That serves as a good anecdote that actual intervention doesn't always mean lasting impact, especially if not accompanied by a shift in fundamental drivers. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.