The two neighbor antipodean currencies have taken quite a divergent path in 2025, particularly throughout the latter part of the year.While historically tending to stay correlated, this link has weakened as New Zealand's economy suffered from a brutal slowdown, while the Australian economy stayed red hot – Also leading to quite a diverging Monetary Policy. The RBNZ Rate is at 2.25% and has just concluded its cutting cycle, while the Royal Bank of Australia rate is at 3.60% and could potentially hike next year!Both currencies are the leaders of today's FX action that kicks off a shortened Christmas week.(Watch out for low volumes and potentially distorted flows as year-end erratic flows can occur – They could both be traps and opportunities!) zoom_out_map Mid-Session FX Performance – US Dollar taking a hit to start the week. December 22, 2025. Source: Finviz Both currencies are traditionally seen as commodity currencies, but it's quite a general term – Here is what differentiates the AUD and NZD:The New Zealand economy specializes in agricultural exports such as dairy and cattle. It correlates well with price rises in these commodities but was significantly affected by US tariffs targeting such products.The Australian economy, on the other hand, has loved the rally in metals, being a huge exporter of iron, gold, coal, and uranium. With three out of four of these commodities rising significantly this year, demand for the Aussie dollar has surged.Add to these flows their high correlation to Chinese stimulus—heavy work from the PBoC this year—and Stock Indexes which have risen significantly (S&P 500 +16%, Nasdaq +21.50%), both currencies are performing well after this year's huge FX rebalancing. This is even more relevant for the AUD.Let's dive into an intraday chart analysis for AUD/USD and NZD/USD, looking at their technicals and trading levels. Read More:Palladium (XPD/USD) on Track for $2,000 as Metals Rally Extends – Price OutlookWTI Outlook: Oil Bounces From Channel Lows — Major Reversal in 2026?Markets Weekly Outlook - GDP Data, US/Asia Events, and Silver's BreakoutA Quick glance at AUD/NZD zoom_out_map AUD/NZD Monthly Chart, December 22, 2025. Source: TradingView AUD/NZD had fallen drastically between 2010 to 2014 as the Commodity supercycle took a huge turn to the downside after the Great Financial Crisis.Ranging between $1.00 to $1.12 for the majority of the past decade, it seems that longer term trends could be changing again.Up around 8% since Liberation Day, a trend seems to be forming for the Antipodean Pair.Assuming we enter a new Supercycle for metals, the Aussie could be in a better place to capture FX demand. The rest will be contingent on if Metals demand keeps increasing.AUD/USD 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map AUD/USD 8H Chart, December 22, 2025. Source: TradingView The Aussie Dollar is performing quite well since last week's close.Bouncing from the 0.66 Psychological support, buyers are taking the lead to push AUD/USD towards the September FOMC resistance 0.6680 to 0.6710.With the USD taking a hit to start the week and commodities rampaging higher, it seems that sellers are for now absent and should not see much resistance before the key level.AUD/USD Technical Levels to keep on your charts:Resistance levels (NZDUSD)Main Support turned Pivot 0.5720 to 0.5750 (testing)Daily highs 0.57300.58 Key Resistance0.59 (+/- 150 pips) ResistanceSupport levels4H 200 MA at 0.5690October Rebound Support at 0.5660 to 0.574H 50-period MA 0.56385January 2025 Support 0.5650NZD/USD 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map NZD/USD 8H Chart, December 22, 2025. Source: TradingView The Kiwi is heading towards the 0.58 psychological level and December Resistance, last barrier for the Antipodean to regain a higher trajectory.The Pair had broken out of its major downward channel, that had started in July and accelerated after the huge miss in the Kiwi GDP in September.With the Cutting Cycle done for the RBNZ, the pair could be getting a fundamental boost.NZD/USD Technical Levels to keep on your charts:Resistance levels (NZDUSD)0.58 to 0.5830 December Resistance0.58310 FOMC Highs0.59 (+/- 150 pips) ResistanceSeptember Resistance 0.602025 Highs 0.6120Support levelsMain Support turned Pivot 0.5720 to 0.5750Friday Lows 0.5730October Rebound Support at 0.5660 to 0.57January 2025 Support 0.5650Safe Trades and Merry Christmas!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Palladium (XPD/USD) has lagged the rally in metals throughout the year as Gold and Silver took all the attention, with both consistently moving to respective all-time highs as the debasement trade unfolded. But things could be changing.This rare precious metal is critical for modern industry, serving as a key component in automotive catalytic converters to reduce emissions, as well as in electronics, fuel cells, and hydrogen purification technologies.In 2025, as inflation and tariffs have retaken control of price trends, and amid the competitive chasing for AI advancements which demand robust industrial hardware, metals have gathered high attention and this trend isn't stalling just yet.Palladium is no stranger to explosive moves. zoom_out_map Palladium (XPD/USD) From 2016 to 2022 – Source: TradingView From 2016 to 2021, Palladium staged a massive run from gaining 630%, gathering some attention from Commodity traders.This culminated in a particularly violent squeeze from December 2021 to March 2022, driven by supply fears following the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as Russia remains a top global producer (about 44% of the global production).Now targeted by proxy trade buyers looking for value, Palladium has become the second-best performing metal in December.It is trading very close to Platinum in monthly performance, up 22% since December 1. zoom_out_map Metal Performance in December 2025. December 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView. For those looking to expand Market knowledge and high volatility commodities, Palladium could offer some decent opportunities in 2026.Let's dive right into a multi-timeframe Analysis of the Precious Metal to see if the current rally has enough potential to reach $2,000 and eventually reach new records. Read More:Markets Today: Gold Breaches $4400/oz, Silver Up 2.75%, Nikkei Rises 1.9% & FTSE 100 Eyes Short-Term PullbackPlatinum reaches $2,000; Palladium breaks 2023 Highs – Metals OutlookUS Indexes Outlook: Santa Rally finally showing up? – Risk-Appetite improves after US CPI missPalladium (XPD/USD) Multi-Timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map Palladium (XPD/USD) CFD Daily Chart, December 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView Palladium has started the week on a high note, propped higher once again by strong demand around all metals.Officially breaching the $1,800 psychological level and its 2023 highs, the move got quite aggressive to $1,866 highs before seeing a consequent profit-taking move.Momentum seem to be stalling a bit as RSI reaches overbought throughout different timeframes.On the higher timeframe however (for investors or long-term traders) evolving within a daily upward channel since June 2025, the metal is forming a stable uptrend.The challenge for buyers however will be to breach the higher bound of the daily channel if demand is strong enough to push to $2,000.Failing to do so before year-end may trigger interesting mean-reversion setups to retest the October highs at $1,676.Let's take a closer look.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Palladium (XPD/USD) CFD 4H Chart, December 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView Pullback traders will look at the 20-period 4H MA, currently at $1,750 as momentum has reversed on the intra-day timeframe.We will observe on the 1H timeframe if the $1,800 level can hold or if odds for a retracement get higher.Palladium Technical Levels to keep on your charts:Resistance levelsFib-Induced potential resistance at $1,941Session highs $1,8662023 Highs Resistance $1,800 to $1,830 (testing)December 2022 Pivot $1,980$3,410 2022 All-time HighsSupport levels$1,750 to $1,765 Key 1H Support, 4H 20 MA and Channel LowsCurrent Pivot $1,650 to $1,670 (October peak)$1,500 Major Psychological SupportNovember Support $1,350$1,100 September Lows Support1H Chart zoom_out_map Palladium (XPD/USD) CFD 1H Chart, December 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView $1,800 is acting as a short-term magnet, with momentum stalling around here after the explosion and retracement.It will act as a key psychological level for the price action:Failing to breach lower adds to chances of a further upside breakout to $1,900, pointing towards the $1,940 Fibonacci-Extension as targetBreaking the $1,800 (+/- $10) Support Zone offers the possibility of a retracement to the lows of the 1H Upward Channel, which coincide with the 4H 20-Period MA around $1,750.Safe Trades and Merry Christmas!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Week in review US stocks finished the week strong on Friday, recovering from a rocky start earlier in the week.The rise was driven mostly by technology companies, which performed well enough to outweigh heavy losses in consumer stocks like Nike.Big tech companies continued to gain value, following a surge of optimism sparked on Thursday when chipmaker Micron Technology released a very positive financial forecast. This renewed investor confidence in Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks, which had recently been struggling due to worries that they were becoming too expensive.Several specific companies saw major gains. Micron shares hit an all-time high, while Nvidia stock rose after news broke that the US government might allow the company to ship its advanced AI chips to China.Oracle also saw its stock price jump after the owner of TikTok, ByteDance, signed a deal to hand over control of the app's U.S. operations to a group of investors that includes Oracle. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG On the economic front, investors were relieved to see that consumer prices in November did not rise as much as feared. However, some experts warned that these numbers might be inaccurate because a 43-day government shutdown prevented the proper collection of data in October.Despite this uncertainty, traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice next year, with a 20% chance that the first cut could happen as early as January.The Bank of Japan (BoJ) hiked interest rates to 0.75%, the highest in three decades. This sets the stage for an interesting week ahead as Japanese traders will still be at their desks next week.Wrapping Up 2025 Market participants may be looking forward to relax after a very chaotic year that began with Donald Trump returning to the White House.Over the last twelve months, global politics have become unstable and a trade war has officially started. While the US dollar lost 9% of its value, gold prices had their best performance since 1979, and European weapons companies saw their value jump by 65%.Global stock markets grew by $14 trillion, driven by an obsession with Artificial Intelligence and risky debt, even though government bond markets are nervous about budget issues.At the same time, oil prices are near a ten-year low, Bitcoin has lost one-third of its value in the last three months, and cocoa is having its worst year ever.After all this drama, it is definitely time for Market participants to take a break. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG However, next week still brings some key events even if liquidity may prove thin. Let us take a look at what we can expect.The Week Ahead - Shortened Week & Low Liquidity Environment Even though the holiday season is approaching, the coming week will still be very busy for market participants. There are several major events to watch, ranging from the first report on how the US economy performed in the third quarter to new updates regarding the ongoing political conflict between the United States and Venezuela.Asia Pacific MarketsIn Japan, factory production is expected to drop, which will undo some of the progress made over the last two months. However, retail sales are still growing because people are earning higher wages. Experts believe that the data for November will not yet show any major damage caused by the recent decrease in tourists visiting from China.After the Bank of Japan rate hike, on December 24, the BoJ will release minutes for its October meeting, at which it kept rates on hold shortly after new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi took office. On December 25, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will speak to Japan's business lobby, the Keidanren. He is expected to give clues on the path of interest rates during 2026.Meanwhile, in China, most of the big economic reports for the year are already finished, so attention is turning to Saturday's decision on interest rates. I expect this to be uneventful, with the key lending rates likely remaining exactly where they are at 3.0% for one-year loans and 3.5% for five-year loans.US Markets - Will GDP Data Validate the Fed Outlook?Although the upcoming third-quarter economic growth report might not shake up the financial markets due to delays caused by the government shutdown, it raises some interesting questions.If the report shows the economy grew by more than 3% for the second time in a row, many will wonder why the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in 2025. It seems unusual to cut rates when inflation is still higher than the 2% target, unemployment is low, and the stock market is at an all-time high.The Federal Reserve defends these cuts as a safety measure to manage future risks. They argue that interest rates are still high enough to control the economy, and since recent taxes on imports didn't raise prices as much as feared, they are now more worried about protecting jobs.Therefore, moving interest rates down toward 3% is seen as a smart move. The report is expected to show that investment in technology and spending by wealthy households are currently driving growth.However, the economy is expected to slow down significantly to around 1% growth in the next quarter, largely due to the disruptions caused by the government shutdown. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Week - Silver (XAGUSD) Silver has been on a tear with a breach of the $67/oz handle taking place on Friday.This leaves Silver with a weekly gain of around the 8.5% mark and the rally just continues to gather pace.It is very difficult to look at silver from a technical point of view given the lack of historical price action at these levels.Optimism surrounding AI and electronics (where silver is used) contributes to the momentum while the soft US inflation data this week further fueled rate cut hopes for 2026.Next to the upside the 70.00 handle may be a point to watch.In terms of support, any pullback may find support at $64.50 (Previous breakout level) and $62.00.Silver (XAG/USD) Four-Hour Chart, December 19, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Yen stayed weak despite a historic rate hike: The Bank of Japan raised rates to 0.75% (highest since 1995), but deeply negative real interest rates (about –2.15%) continue to erode yen purchasing power and discourage investment in the currency.Markets had fully priced in the hike: The decision was expected with near-100% probability, triggering a “buy the rumor, sell the news” reaction as investors took profits, adding selling pressure on the yen instead of supporting it.Global rate differentials favor the dollar over the yen: A large real interest rate gap dovish signals from BOJ Governor Ueda, and strong risk appetite for U.S. assets have revived carry trades and pushed USD/JPY higher. The end of 2025 brought a phenomenon to financial markets which some investors could call a "paradox". At its center was Japan, attempting to finally break away from the legacy of decades of monetary stagnation, and the yen, which behaved in a way that ran counter to textbook economic intuition. Despite an interest rate hike, the Japanese currency failed to strengthen and instead remained weak against the world’s major currencies.The end of the ultra-low rate era – or not quite?For decades, Japan operated under an ultra-loose monetary policy aimed at combating deflation. December 2025 was meant to mark a turning point. Inflation in the Land of the Rising Sun had remained above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for 44 consecutive months, reaching 2.9% year over year in November. Even so, following the December decision, monetary policy remained firmly in stimulative territory. The Bank of Japan emphasized in its statement that real interest rates would remain significantly negative and that financial conditions would continue to support economic growth.It is precisely these negative real interest rates that provide the key to understanding the yen’s persistent weakness. With inflation at 2.9% and the nominal policy rate at 0.75%, Japan’s real cost of money stands at approximately –2.15%. This implies an ongoing erosion of purchasing power for yen-denominated cash holdings, structurally discouraging investors from accumulating the Japanese currency.A decision fully priced in by marketsOn December 19, 2025, the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board unanimously decided to raise the policy rate to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995. While historically significant, the move came as no surprise to financial markets. Investors were well prepared: the overnight index swap (OIS) market had priced in the hike with near 100% probability ahead of the meeting.As a result, the classic market mechanism of “buy the rumor, sell the news” came into play. Investors who had positioned for yen appreciation ahead of the decision moved to take profits once the announcement was made, generating selling pressure on the currency immediately afterward.USD/JPY reaction contrary to expectationsAt the same time, investor attention was focused on the United States. For many months, the Federal Open Market Committee refrained from cutting interest rates due to concerns that inflation could reaccelerate amid tariff policies implemented by the Donald Trump administration. From December 2024 through September 2025, the Fed maintained its benchmark rate in the 4.25–4.50% range. zoom_out_map Rising unemployment rate alongside falling NFP report, source: TradingView The turning point came from labor market data pointing to both declining employment and a rising unemployment rate, which ultimately provided the key argument for initiating rate cuts. Since then, the interest rate range has fallen to 3.5-3.75%. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s target, with the November CPI reading at 2.7% year over year. However, this figure came in well below market expectations of 3.1%.This disinflationary surprise, rather than weakening the U.S. dollar, fueled a strong increase in risk appetite. Global capital flowed into U.S. equities and the dollar, rather than into the yen, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven currency. As a result, USD/JPY rose instead of falling following Japan’s rate hike. zoom_out_map Daily chart of USDJPY, source: TradingView Ueda's press conference signals a dovish monetary policyA further blow to bullish yen sentiment came from Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference. Instead of signaling an aggressive fight against inflation, markets heard a series of cautious and conservative messages. Ueda emphasized that there was no predetermined path for further rate hikes and acknowledged that estimates of the neutral interest rate remain highly uncertain.He also downplayed the historical significance of the decision, stating that reaching the highest interest rate level in 30 years “has no special meaning.” This rhetoric was interpreted as distinctly dovish, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan is in no rush to accelerate monetary tightening and further cooling investor enthusiasm for the yen. Yen Weakness Versus Major CurrenciesThe combined effect of these factors has been a continued weakening of the yen against major currencies. The decisive factor is the stark disparity in real interest rates. While Japan’s real rate remains deeply negative, the U.S. real rate stands at approximately +1.44%, based on bond yields around 4.14% and inflation at 2.7%.This gap of more than 3.5 percentage points has revived carry trade strategies, in which investors borrow in low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding U.S. dollar assets. Until the Federal Reserve embarks on aggressive rate cuts or the Bank of Japan significantly accelerates its tightening cycle, the fundamental gravitational pull of global markets is likely to continue favoring the dollar at the expense of the yen. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil has been falling continuously since the beginning of December, maintaining the broad downward trend that has characterized 2025—excluding, of course, the price spikes seen during the June 12-Day War.The typical fundamental reasoning for this relentless slide has been significantly higher supply from OPEC+, a result of coordinated geopolitical planning aimed at undercutting Russia's profits from its oil-sponsored war in Ukraine.Furthermore, Russia itself has flooded its purchasers with supply; despite sanctions raising barriers and counterparty risks for European markets, the competitive pricing of Slavic oil has kept global prices depressed. zoom_out_map Oil Demand Projections – Inside Climate News (Data from IEA) However, broader themes may now be getting priced in.President Trump's DJT recently announced a partnership with a nuclear-fusion research firm, sparking conversations about the future of energy.Even as the world requires immense power to fuel an expanding network of AI servers and data centers, technological breakthroughs and energy efficiency gains could contribute to a diminishing secular demand for Black Gold.After all, technological pivots aimed at reducing oil dependence have been a recurring theme since the 1970s.But as pointed out in our recent Oil Analysis, the current downtrend could be approaching a stall. This pause might evolve into a more significant long-term bottom as market participants conclude their 2025 trades.A combination of holding the 2021 lows, potentially easing tensions between Russia and Ukraine (implying less supply), and US producers scaling back output could set the stage for a rebounding, more rangebound price action in 2026.In the meantime, let's determine what price ranges could be in play for both the short and long run as we dive into our Oil Technical Analysis. Read More:Metals explode: Silver (XAG/USD) hits record $66 as Platinum (XPT/USD) breaks 2011 highsMarkets Today: BoJ Hikes Rates, German Consumer Confidence at 2024 Lows as FTSE 100 Holds the High GroundNikkei 225: A gradual interest rate hike stance by BoJ maintains the bullish trendWTI (US) Oil Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map US Oil (WTI) Daily Chart, December 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Since reaching new yearly lows just three sessions ago, traders have started to reverse their selling positions leading to a 2.40% rebound from $55.00.The rebound has come after a few technical warnings: The selloff had shown some (minor) bullish daily divergence across higher timeframe RSI, but most importantly, reached the lows of its major Descending Channel.Despite the rebound, there will be a few things to monitor for upcoming action:Whether bulls manage to break above the $57.00 highs (extremes of the $2 2025 Support Zone)If they do, the action should at least test the 50-Day Moving Average, a major price magnetA lower break would see its next support closer to $53-$54 but doesn't look too likely.Marking trend lows here should point to a $55 to $70 Range for 2026, barring major geopolitical disruption.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map US Oil (WTI) 4H Chart, December 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView As indicated in our previous Oil Outlook, the completed Measured Move led to quite a strong reversal.Having broken the downtrend, short-term upside is warranted. Keep an eye on the Major Pivot for a confirmed breakout (particularly above the 4H 50-MA at 57.12)Levels to place on your WTI charts:Resistance Levels$57.00 to $58.00 Major Pivot (and 4H 50-MA)$59 to $60 2021 Resistance and Channel HighsMinor Resistance $62 to $63Key September Resistance $65 to $66Support Levels$55 to $56.50 2025 Support and Channel lows (testing)Yearly lows $55.002019 mini support $53 to $54Mid-2019 Main support $51 to $52.501H Chart zoom_out_map US Oil (WTI) 1H Chart, December 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Having breach back above its 50-Hour MA, the short-term action is more bullish than bearish – Keep an eye on the 1H Bull Channel.Soon to be overbought RSI conditions points to either a small reversal or consolidation.WTI is not overbought just yet, so short-term continuation could still pursue. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - BoJ Hikes Rates, Nikkei Rises 1% Most Read: Bank of England (BoE) Preview: A Hawkish Cut in a Stagnating Economy? Implications for the GBP & FTSE 100Japan's stock market rose significantly on Friday, with the main Nikkei index climbing more than 1% to reach a level of 49,629.This rally occurred after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 0.75%, the highest level in thirty years and warned that more increases are likely on the way. Investors were also in a good mood because of a strong performance by US technology stocks the night before.The central bank's decision had a major impact on the bond market as well. For the first time since 2006, the return (yield) on 10-year government bonds hit 2%. This is a symbolic milestone that marks a shift away from Japan's long history of falling prices (deflation).As is typical when interest rates rise, the actual price of these bonds fell, dropping to their lowest level since 2008.German Consumer Confidence Drops Near Two-Year Lows Consumer confidence in Germany has taken a sharp downturn heading into January 2026, dropping to its lowest level since April 2024. This decline was far worse than experts predicted and reflects a growing caution among households.People are less willing to spend money and have instead ramped up their savings to the highest level seen since 2008, largely due to fears that high inflation might return and uncertainty surrounding government pension reforms. While families are pessimistic about their own income for the third month in a row, there is a small bright spot: they are slightly more optimistic about the general economy than before.However, experts warn that this pessimistic mood casts a shadow over the end of the Christmas shopping season and suggests a difficult start for the economy in the new year.European Session - European Shares Muted European stock markets were mostly quiet on Friday. Although technology and retail companies saw some losses, strong performance from major banks helped balance things out.Overall, the markets were set to finish the week with solid gains after a busy few days of economic news. The STOXX 600 index dropped just slightly, with similar small declines seen in Germany and London.Some well-known brands struggled, specifically German sportswear makers Adidas and Puma. Their stock prices fell after their American rival, Nike, announced it was making less profit than expected.On the other hand, banks were among the best performers, helping to prop up the market. Investors were generally feeling hopeful because inflation in the United States slowed down unexpectedly on Thursday, leading many to believe that interest rates might be cut in 2026.However, financial experts warned that these inflation numbers might be misleading because the recent US government shutdown made it hard to collect accurate data.In political news, European Union leaders agreed to borrow money to provide a €90 billion loan to Ukraine for its defense against Russia. They chose this path instead of using frozen Russian assets. This decision had a ripple effect on the financial markets, causing the interest rates (yields) on German government bonds to go up.On the FX front, the Japanese Yen lost value on Friday during a chaotic day of trading. Although the Bank of Japan raised interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75% as predicted, traders immediately sold off the Yen once the news was confirmed.The currency weakened even more after the bank's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, avoided giving a clear timeline for when rates might rise again. Consequently, the Yen dropped 0.6% against the US dollar, while the Euro surged to a record high against the Japanese currency.Meanwhile, the British Pound had a bumpy ride but ended up roughly where it started against the dollar at 1.3374. This happened after the Bank of England cut interest rates to 3.75%; however, the vote among policymakers was much closer than expected, which suggests they might not be able to cut rates again soon.The Euro remained flat against the dollar because the head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, refused to commit to a specific future plan, stating only that all options remain open.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices dropped on Friday and are on track to finish lower for the second week in a row. The main reasons for this decline are fears that there is simply too much oil available in the market and growing hopes for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.These factors were strong enough to overshadow concerns about blocked oil shipments from Venezuela. Specifically, the price of Brent crude fell by 17 cents to roughly $59.65 per barrel, while US crude dropped by 31 cents to $55.84.Gold prices dropped slightly on Friday because the US dollar got stronger and investors started adjusting their portfolios before the year ends. Despite this small daily dip, gold is still on track to finish the week with a profit, largely because recent data showed lower inflation, which makes people hopeful that interest rates will be cut soon.The price of gold fell just 0.1% to around $4,326 per ounce, though it remains close to the record highs seen in October. Silver had an even better week; it rose another 0.7% to roughly $66 per ounce and is set to finish the week with a 6% total gain after hitting an all-time high on Wednesday.Read More:Nikkei 225: A gradual interest rate hike stance by BoJ maintains the bullish trendEUR/USD Forecast: ECB & US CPI to Drive Price Action, Bulls Remain in Control Above 1.1600 HandleUSD Stabilizes on CPI Doubts: USD/JPY Ahead of BoJ Decision and FX OverviewEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session has seen some medium impact data releases as well asLater today, the US will release existing home sales data and University of Michigan consumer expectations etc. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 index is finally breaking higher after a period of consolidation.The index bounced off support at 9661 before breaking above both the 100 and 200-day MAs and making a fresh high eyeing the ATH at 9943.The question now is can the FTSE 100 reach the 10000 handle?The period-14 RSI remains above the 50 neutral level which hints at bullish momentum still being strong.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, December 19, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This morning is a blessing for volatility traders and economists – A triple slate of high-tier change just landed in the past hour and a half.Starting with the most recent releases, the US CPI (headline) for November landed at 2.7% vs 3.1% expectations – A sharp miss on high expectations and a very good sign for future cuts.The Core measure actually came lower (2.6% vs 3% exp), reflecting a cooling in the Services sector. zoom_out_map Morning US Data releases – MarketPulse Economic Calendar Dollar Lower, Stocks higher, bonds higher (meaning yields went lower) – Classic reaction.Last year's inflation report was a relatively cool one, leading to a higher base effect.This release is an even more encouraging report for the Fed, giving back some credibility to its dovish members (Hi Waller and Williams!).By the way, Jobless Claims came slightly below expectations (224K vs 225K) – Nothing much to see here. zoom_out_map Market reactions to CPI 15M Charts for S&P 500, Oil, 10-Year Bonds, Gold, Bitcoin and the USD. December 18 – Source: TradingView (Updated at 10:51 ET) Read More:WTI Oil prices at 2025 Lows – Opportunity or Trap?Metals explode: Silver (XAG/USD) hits record $66 as Platinum (XPT/USD) breaks 2011 highsMarkets Today: Nikkei at 3-Week Lows, Silver, Gold Hold the High Ground as BoE Cut Rate 25 bps, ECB NextThe Bank of England Cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.75% (Prior 4%) – Pound rallies zoom_out_map Bank of England's Statement – December 18 2025 Meeting. Source: Bank of England The heavily expected cut was a hawkish one, with Governor Bailey indicating that future cuts will be close calls.With UK inflation still above 3% and a cooling labor picture (but still growing), the margin of operation for the Bank of England is a small one.You can access the BoE report right here.The vote actually came at 5-4 for the 25 bps cut, indicating some dispersion in views and making future cuts even less obvious.There is about 1.5 cuts priced in for 2026 for the UK Main Rate.The next decision will be on February 6, 2026. zoom_out_map GBP/USD 1H Chart, December 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Cable is up about 700 pips after its hawkish cut and profiting even more from the miss in US CPI weighing on the USD.Now reaching the 1.3440 to 1.35 Resistance and still evolving within an hourly Bull Channel, it will be interesting to see if there is much juice left to the current rally.Watch the upwards channel and reaction to its highs (1.34850) if bulls manage to breach the Tuesday highs.ECB keeps rates unchanged at 2% – Nothing new The ECB has been a bit boring as of late.Keeping rates unchanged, forward guidance is one indicating stable rates for the forthcoming times.Still, the ECB pointed to sticky services inflation which it expects to see remaining high.I encourage those who want to see more to check out this great review of the decision.EUR/USD is forming a new range between 1.17 to 1.18 and isn't showing many signs of breaking out. zoom_out_map EUR/USD 2H Chart, December 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Hits Three-Week Lows Most Read: Bank of England (BoE) Preview: A Hawkish Cut in a Stagnating Economy? Implications for the GBP & FTSE 100Japan's Nikkei dropped to its lowest point in three weeks on Thursday. The decline was driven largely by falling prices in major technology companies, as investors grew worried about the future of artificial intelligence and data center businesses.Overall, the Nikkei index fell by roughly 1%, while the broader Topix index saw a smaller decline.SoftBank Group was hit particularly hard, losing nearly 4% of its value. This happened after its partner, Oracle, saw its own stock drop due to reports that a major investor might pull out of a $10 billion data center deal. Because SoftBank is working closely with Oracle and OpenAI on a massive US project called "Stargate," this bad news dragged SoftBank's shares down.Other tech firms, including chipmaker Advantest and cable manufacturer Fujikura, also suffered significant losses.Financial companies also struggled, with major banks like Mitsubishi UFJ and Mizuho dropping around 1%.Investors are selling these stocks as they prepare for the Bank of Japan's meeting on Friday, where the central bank is expected to announce an increase in interest rates.However, not every company did poorly; the software testing firm Shift jumped by over 5%, and the railway operator Keisei Electric Railway also saw solid gains.European Session - Quiet Start to the Day European stock markets were mostly quiet on Thursday as market participants waited cautiously for big announcements from central banks and new inflation data from the United States.The FTSE 100 index dipped slightly, but the UK market managed a small gain. This rise in London comes as investors strongly expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates today, a belief that grew stronger after yesterday's surprise drop in UK inflation.In contrast, central banks in the rest of Europe, Norway, and Sweden are expected to keep their interest rates exactly where they are.The market is paying close attention to the European Central Bank's future plans, especially since some officials have suggested they might raise rates next year, which would be different from the US approach.Energy stocks performed the best as oil prices rose, with BP gaining slightly after appointing a new CEO. However, healthcare companies struggled, with major firms like Novo Nordisk seeing their share prices fall.On the FX front, the US dollar rose slightly on Thursday as investors prepared for important announcements from central banks in Britain, Europe, and Japan.The dollar’s value increased by 0.2% overall, largely ignoring comments from President Trump that he wants the next leader of the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates significantly.Meanwhile, other major currencies struggled against the dollar. The British pound fell because UK inflation dropped unexpectedly, which convinced many traders that the Bank of England will cut interest rates soon.The Japanese yen also dipped slightly, although its losses were limited because investors expect Japan's central bank to raise interest rates to a 30-year high on Friday. The Euro also declined by 0.2%.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices increased slightly on Thursday as traders evaluated potential problems with global supply. Market participants are currently worried about two main issues: the possibility of new U.S. penalties against Russia and a blockade of Venezuelan oil ships.As a result of these concerns, the price of Brent crude rose to $60 a barrel, while US crude climbed to $56.32.Gold prices remained mostly steady on Thursday. While signs that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates helped support the price, a strong US dollar and the anticipation of important inflation reports limited any major gains.Meanwhile, silver stayed near its all-time high.Specifically, the price of gold dropped slightly by 0.2% to roughly $4,333/oz, following a strong rise the day before, while gold futures also fell by a similar amount to $4,364.Read More:BoJ preview: Interest rate hike baked in, what’s next for the JPY (further appreciation)?EUR/USD Forecast: ECB & US CPI to Drive Price Action, Bulls Remain in Control Above 1.1600 HandleECB: Rates on hold, debate heats upEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session has been quiet thus far but we do have two major Central Bank decisions ahead of us.Later today, the US will release its November inflation report, which should give a clearer picture of future American economic policy. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 index is finally breaking higher after a period of consolidation.The index bounced off support at 9661 before breaking above both the 100 and 200-day MAs and making a fresh high eyeing the ATH at 9943.The question now is can the FTSE 100 reach the 10000 handle?The period-14 RIS is just shy of overbought territory which could be a cause for concern.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, December 18, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (17/12/2025): In this most recent episode, TraderNick leads the discussion on the latest developments in monetary policy, particularly regarding how the Fed is balancing its dual mandate, recent stock market trends, and furthering the conversation on global sovereign debt. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Debasement Trade continues to roar today.Despite slowing inflows into Cryptocurrencies and Stocks sending mixed signals since Friday, Metals are shining bright.As observed in our Overnight brief, Silver has exploded to yet another fresh record at $66, surpassing targets explored in our pre-FOMC analysis. There are some technical warnings arising however,Platinum is also profiting massively from these inflows, finally breaking its 2011 highs of $1,915.More rare than Gold, the White Metal is now standing just 15% away from its 2008 All-Time Highs ($2,300) and appears on track to test that historic level. zoom_out_map Metal Performance in 2025. December 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView. Spot the accelerations after Liberation Day and Powell's Jackson Hole Speech. Why are metals rallying again?The answer lies in the aftermath of the recent Non-Farm Payrolls report.While the Unemployment Rate ticked higher, overall employment levels still do not guarantee a Fed cut in January. This policy ambiguity, combined with lingering doubts regarding the future path of the economy, is bolstering demand for precious metals as primary safe havens amidst the uncertainty.However, the picture may only clear up after tomorrow's high-importance CPI report.Let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis (Monthly and Intraday) of Silver and Platinum to spot what technical levels and signals are arising. Discover:WTI Oil prices at 2025 Lows – Opportunity or Trap?US Stocks struggle: Unemployment rate ticks up to 4.6% after NFP releaseBoJ preview: Interest rate hike baked in, what’s next for the JPY (further appreciation)?Silver (XAG/USD) Monthly Chart zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) Monthly Chart. December 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView Silver is exploding to its record prices in quite a high fashion.The Monthly chart offers a stellar view of how significant the move is.Up 100% since June, what recently were historic peaks are now far-away.The $48 to $53 zone acts as a major high timeframe pivot of the price action in the event of any retracement.Moving below could trigger a huge bearish event, while holding above in a retest would allow for a significant dip-buying opportunity.Keep an eye on Weekly RSI bearish divergence if a top forms anywhere near current levels.A Fibonacci-Extension from the 2003 to 2011 could point to $67.10 potentially acting as major resistance, particularly with the current breakout reaching similar stretches as the 2008-2011 move (purple squares)Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart. December 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView Silver is still evolving within its intraday upward channel.Keep an eye on how it reacts to its boundaries. Currently at its highs, some profit-taking (Selling) flows could arise.Naturally, watch for a potential breakout to the upside or downside depending on tomorrow's CPI!Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD) trading:Resistance Levels:Resistance $65 to $67 at Current All-time HighsKey Fibonacci Target $67.101.618% Potential Fib-Target from 2003 to 2011 Move $78.00$66.53 session highsSupport Levels:Major Intraday Pivot $61 to $63Pre-FOMC Support $58.00 to $60$53.50 to $54 Previous ATH resistance now SupportMajor Weekly Pivot, acting as Support $48 to $50$45 October LowsPlatinum (XPT/USD) Monthly Chart zoom_out_map Platinum (XPT/USD) Monthly Chart. December 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView Platinum is a late bloomer within the current Metal Supercycle, but it's catching up to its peers quite fast.Our previous analysis of the Metal pointed to the idea of Platinum potentially catching up to Gold. Necessary for many technological developments, its demand should keep increasing throughout the years – But what prevents it from reaching similar levels to Gold is Central Bank demand (A huge fundamental boost to all metals since 2025).After stalling its ascent while Silver and Gold advanced, bulls are now breaking above its 2008 highs.Inflows into the metal are still dependent on other metals such as Gold or Silver advancing further, but XPT/USD could offer a very interesting option for those who missed the rally in the yellow and grey precious metals.From what it looks like, the current rally is occurring on these flows. To get more details of Platinum fundamentals, I strongly invite you to check out our End-November analysis.Platinum (XPT/USD) 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Platinum (XPT/USD) 4H Chart. December 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView XPT/USD has broken out to the upside from its 2025 ascending channel.The ongoing move is a very strong one (look at how steep the current uptrend is.)Some small profit-taking flows are occurring at overbought levels, indicative of a prompt retracement – The new 14 year highs are at $1,950 and breaking higher would see no resistance until $2,050 to $2,100.For dip-buyers, keep a close look at how the metal reacts to the retest of the 2025 highs upper bound at $1,850.The same occurred in Silver and led to a 100% move since. Platinum Technical Levels to keep on your charts:Resistance levelsImmediate Resistance at 2011 Highs $1910 to $1,950 (breaking?)Session highs $1,950May 2008 Pivotal Resistance $2,050 to $2,100$2,300 2008 All-time highsSupport levels2025 Channel upper bound $1,850 (Mini-Support)2013 and Current year highs $1,700 to $1,750$1,620 to $1,650 FOMC SupportMajor High Timeframe pivot $1,500 to $1,600Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Shares Bounce Back from Two-Day Slump Most Read: Bank of England (BoE) Preview: A Hawkish Cut in a Stagnating Economy? Implications for the GBP & FTSE 100After two days of falling prices, technology stocks in Asia have bounced back. The most dramatic rise was seen in China, where a new chip-making company called MetaX Integrated Circuits skyrocketed by more than 755% on its very first day of public trading.In Japan, the main stock market index, known as the Nikkei, rose slightly by 0.3%. This small increase helped the market recover from a recent two-week low, largely because Japanese tech companies followed the positive trends seen in the US stock market the night before.Several major companies helped lift the Japanese market. Advantest, a company that makes equipment for testing computer chips, saw its stock rise by nearly 1.6%, providing the biggest boost to the index. Fast Retailing (the owner of the clothing store Uniqlo) and the robot manufacturer Fanuc also saw their share prices go up.However, not every company did well; SoftBank Group saw a small drop in value. Overall, the market was fairly split, with about half of the companies seeing their stock prices fall and slightly less than half seeing them rise.Looking ahead, the Nikkei will likely drift without a clear direction until the end of the year. Prices are expected to go up and down slightly as two different groups of investors influence the market: those selling their stocks to cash in on recent profits, and individual buyers looking to purchase stocks whenever prices dip.UK Inflation Rate Falls More Than Expected In November 2025, inflation in the UK cooled down more than experts anticipated, dropping to 3.2%. This figure is the lowest recorded in eight months and sits comfortably below the 3.4% rate that the Bank of England had predicted.The main driver for this improvement was a slowdown in price hikes for food and drinks, particularly bakery items like bread, cakes, and cereals, which actually became cheaper this year.Several other sectors also helped bring inflation down. Price increases for alcohol and tobacco slowed to their lowest levels since late 2022, while costs for housing, rent, and transport also rose more slowly than before.Notably, the price of clothing and footwear actually dropped, driven largely by cheaper women's clothing. While the cost of recreation and culture remained steady, inflation in the services sector eased slightly.Overall, consumer prices fell by 0.2% compared to the previous month, marking the biggest monthly drop since July 2024.European Session - European Shares Up at the Start of the Week European stock markets rose on Wednesday, recovering from a drop the day before.The FTSE 100 index went up slightly, but the UK market performed especially well, rising 0.8% after a surprise drop in inflation made investors hopeful for an interest rate cut soon.Banks were the top performers, reaching their highest value levels since 2008. Energy and mining companies also saw gains because the prices of oil and silver increased. Investors are now watching closely for upcoming interest rate decisions from major central banks later this week.However, not every company did well; shares in the supply business Bunzl fell 7% because the company predicted it would make less profit in 2026.On the FX front, the US dollar recovered slightly on Wednesday, moving up from its lowest point since early October. This happened after new reports showed that the job market remains weak, leaving investors unsure about when the Federal Reserve will decide to cut interest rates next.Despite this small rise, the dollar has had a difficult year overall; it has lost about 9.5% of its value, which puts it on track for its biggest yearly drop since 2017.In other currency markets, the Euro fell slightly but remains near a three-month high as traders wait for the European Central Bank's meeting on Thursday, where interest rates are expected to stay unchanged.Meanwhile, the Australian and New Zealand dollars both dipped slightly today, but they are finishing the year strongly. The New Zealand dollar is set to gain over 3% this year, ending a four-year losing streak, while the Australian dollar is on pace for a nearly 7% rise, its best performance since 2020.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices rose by more than 1% on Wednesday after President Trump ordered a total blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers.This decision has increased political tension worldwide, causing the price of major oil benchmarks to jump by about 1.5%, with Brent crude nearing $60 a barrel and US crude climbing to over $56.At the same time, the price of precious metals surged to record levels. Silver jumped significantly, passing $66 per ounce for the first time ever, while gold prices rose to over $4,330/oz.These increases were driven by new reports showing a slowdown in the US job market. Investors believe this weak data means interest rates will be cut next year, which makes owning gold and silver more attractive than holding cash.Read More:BoJ preview: Interest rate hike baked in, what’s next for the JPY (further appreciation)?WTI Oil prices at 2025 Lows – Opportunity or Trap?ECB: Rates on hold, debate heats upEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session has been busy so far from a data perspective withGerman iFO data. CPI data will follow shortly.There are no major US economic reports scheduled for today, but investors are focused on a speech by Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller at 14:15 CET.Although Waller supported last week's interest rate cut, he is now weighing two conflicting possibilities for the economy. He is unsure if high consumer spending will drop to match the weak job market which would mean the Fed needs to cut rates further or if the job market will improve to match the strong spending, which would allow the Fed to stop cutting rates indefinitely.This debate remains unresolved, especially after data released yesterday showed that retail sales in October were unexpectedly strong. Because Waller’s speeches have heavily influenced financial markets in recent years, traders will react quickly if he seems to favor one outcome over the other.Currently, the US Dollar is holding steady above a specific price level (97.80). Unless Waller makes comments that strongly favor lowering interest rates, the dollar is likely to stay above this level until the European Central Bank meets on Thursday. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 index is finally breaking higher after a period of consolidation.The index bounced off support at 9661 before breaking above both the 100 and 200-day MAs and making a fresh high eyeing the ATH at 9943.The question now is can the FTSE 100 reach the 10000 handle?The period-14 RIS is just shy of overbought territory which could be a cause for concern.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, December 17, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key elements BoJ hike is fully priced, normalization to continue: Markets assign a ~94% probability to a 25bp BoJ hike to 0.75%, backed by firm wage growth, improving consumer confidence, and strong Tankan sentiment—pointing to further gradual tightening into 2026.Policy divergence favours JPY structurally: A December hike would underscore the BoJ as the lone major central bank tightening while the Fed eases, reinforcing medium-term appreciation bias for the yen.USD/JPY near-term bias turns bearish: Technicals signal fading upside momentum; below 156.10, risks skew toward a pullback toward 154.40 and lower, with rallies vulnerable unless resistance is decisively cleared. The short-term overnight interest rate swap market in Japan has already priced in a high chance of 94% chance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike for the second time this year (within its current gradual normalization monetary policy stance) by 25 basis points this Friday, 19 December to bring the overnight policy rate to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years.A move on Friday would cement the BOJ’s status as the only major central bank raising rates this year. It would also mark the first instance since the BOJ adopted its two-day meeting format in 1998 that it and the Federal Reserve move policy rates in opposite directions within the same month.Rising wages, consumer confidence, and Tankan business sentiment zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Key Japan economic data that BoJ watches as of 15 Dec 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Japan overnight indexed swap rates as of 16 Dec 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) On top of BoJ Governor Ueda’s recent hawkish remarks on the justification to maintain the BoJ’s stance of gradual interest rate rises, several key economic data points other than the core-core CPI trend (excluding fresh food and energy) that the BoJ monitors have flashed out “all clear” signs to enact another rate hike after an 11-month pause since January’s hike.The latest Q4 Tankan business sentiment survey for large manufacturing companies operating in Japan has risen to almost a 3-year high at 15.0. The mood of Japanese consumers has also improved since April 2025, when consumer sentiment rose to a 19-month high of 37.50 in November 2025 (see Fig. 1).In addition, the latest BoJ’s report on wages published on Monday, 15 December 2025, has indicated that a firm wage growth momentum is likely to continue into the new fiscal year of 2026 at the same average growth rate of 5.25% in fiscal year 2025 as secured by Rengo, the largest trade union confederation in Japan.Hence, the BoJ is likely to continue its gradual interest rate hike cycle into 2026, as priced in by the interest rate swap market. The 1-year overnight-indexed swap rate has increased to 0.84% as of 16 December 2025 (see Fig. 2).Let’s now uncover the potential short-term directional movement of the USD/JPY from a technical analysis perspective.Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) of USD/JPY – Bearish below 156.10 zoom_out_map Fig. 3: USD/JPY minor trend as of 17 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 4: USD/JPY medium-term & major trends as of 17 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) The USD/JPY has continued to oscillate within a minor descending channel that has been in place since reaching a 10-month high of 157.90 on 20 November 2025.Bearish bias below 156.10 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 154.40 near-term support resumes the minor bearish impulsive down move sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at 153.70 and 152.95 (see Fig. 3).Key elements The daily MACD trend indicator of the USD/JPY has staged a bearish breakdown below a key ascending support on 4 December 2025 and is trending downwards steadily towards its centre line (see Fig. 4).These observations from the daily MACD trend indicator suggest the multi-month up move of the USD/JPY from April 2025 low to November 2025 high is at a rising risk of a trend change towards a bearish bias (see Fig. 4).The hourly RSI on USD/JPY is rapidly approaching overbought territory (above 70), signalling that the rebound seen during the Asia session on Wednesday, 17 December 2025, is likely to lose bullish momentum in the near term (see Fig. 3).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A clearance above 156.10 invalidates the bearish bias on the USD/JPY to see a further potential squeeze up to retest the next intermediate resistances at 156.60 and 157.00/157.15. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 16The session started on a sour note following the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which sent conflicting signals to traders and initially weighed on sentiment.All indexes traded lower after a timid open until the mid-session, when major dip-buying stepped in as key psychological support levels came into play.The Nasdaq led the reversal, reclaiming 25,000 to turn positive on the day, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones defended the 6,800 and 48,000 marks, respectively.The Unemployment Rate ticking higher—now sitting above the Fed's 2025 projections—initially sent chills through market participants.However, as the data was digested throughout the mid-session, stocks were swiftly bought back, erasing earlier losses. zoom_out_map Nvidia, Tesla, Palantir and Oracle save the day in a global red wave – Market Close Heatmap (16:40 P.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – December 16, 2025 Despite the recovery, the path forward remains murky.The US Dollar is rebounding after a deceptive downside move, and US Treasuries are following suit. Meanwhile, Gold is beginning to look "toppy," suggesting exhaustion. Traders can't seem to make heads or tails of the broader price action, leaving the market in a state of flux.Oil also got slapped quite harshly. I strongly invite you to check out our recent analysis to see why,Clarity will likely have to wait until December 18th, when the pivotal Inflation Report is released. Read More:WTI Oil prices at 2025 Lows – Opportunity or Trap?US Stocks struggle: Unemployment rate ticks up to 4.6% after NFP releaseBank of England (BoE) Preview: A Hawkish Cut in a Stagnating Economy? Implications for the GBP & FTSE 100Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView Cryptos made a decent comeback despite the firmer sentiment, but it seems that even with the better risk-appetite, the session close is taking back some of this dip-buying.Oil stands out as a large underperformer todayA picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, December 16 – Source: OANDA Labs Things were very chaotic in FX today but one trend emerges:The JPY is rallying back strongly as traders get prepared for a potentially hawkish hike from the Bank of Japan on Thursday. This will be a major event for markets.The GBP also rallied quite strongly despite a weaker UK Employment rate.Don't forget to log in to our Bank of England preview.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The evening session wraps up soon with Japanese Trade Balance and Merchandise Trade.Tomorrow will be heavily focused on European data. Traders will start a long session with the full slate of UK CPI figures (02:00 A.M. ET).The Consumer Price Index (YoY) is expected to hold at 3.5%. A miss would heavily weigh on the already heavily-priced cut from the Bank of England on Thursday.The 04:00 A.M. to 05:00 A.M. ET stretch releases IFO Survey and Eurozone Core HICP numbers.The North American session will start with Fed Governor Waller's speech (8:15 A.M. ET), but is a pale figure to what's coming later.Fed's Williams (09:05 A.M. ET) and Fed's Bostic (12:30 P.M. ET) will also be speaking throughout the day as the NA session gets much calmer.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The open was timid after the small beat in NFP that is getting outshined by the tick-up on the Unemployment Rate (UE Rate), leading to a worsening sentiment.(You can check the details of the report right here).A focus on the UE rate by Market Participants is logical, after a few months of unreliable public labor statistics from the US Stat Agency (the BLS).Still, they released October numbers at -105K (November came at +64K), which contributed to the higher UE.A concern on the growth of temporary jobs outshining long-term jobs is something to note for the alarmists, but private payrolls are also stabilizing after a long-lasting drop. zoom_out_map Private sector growth – Downtrend is slowing, not going negative for now. December 16, 2025. Source: Labor Statistics (published by Nick Timiraos) Overall, the Fed warned of a slowing Labor Market, a decent reason for the recent 25 bps cut which roughly comes just a bit above the Fed's 2025 Year-End projections (4.5% projected, unrounded is at 4.564%) but not too concerning.Still, Stock traders seem to be shying off their traditional December buying spree.Some dip-buyers are lifting the retracement in Stocks after their drop, but they are coming in more active in Bonds – Safer assets in demand implies some concerns, but these flows are for now far from a trend.Let's dive into our daily intra-session charts for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500. Discover More:Winners and Losers of the FOMC Rate Cut – Market OverviewWho Are the Fed Speakers to Watch in 2026? A New Front-Runner for the Fed ChairCan Platinum catch up to Gold? Platinum (XPT/USD) Price ForecastThe Current Heatmap isn't too joyful zoom_out_map Some Red for Santa? – Current picture for the Stock Market (10:40 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – December 16, 2025 Dow Jones – Rebounding from pre-FOMC highs zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – December 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dow has retraced from its post-FOMC all-time highs, but is now rebounding from its Meeting highs at 48,130 – Keep an eye on this level for intraday bull/bear strength.Closing above maintains a retracement/retest biasBelow however implies further weakness ahead.The 2H RSI is sending some bearish signals, rejected its neutral-line. For intraday traders, keep an eye on the Descending Channel.Dow Jones technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsAll-time High resistance between 48,400 to 48,886 (rejecting)November ATH 48,459 – top of retracement channel, acting as resistance50,000 Psychological Level and Potential Fib Target (50,159)Support LevelsDaily lows and FOMC highs 48,130Short-term support 47,800Key Support 47,000 (+/- 150) and MA 200August highs and November Lows 45,71545,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)Nasdaq – Testing 25,000 zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – December 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is moving in a traditional aggressive fashion.After breaking 25,000 at the open, bulls came back to bring current trading right above.Still, keep an eye on both the descending channel for directions and the Psychological Level towards the close to measure sentiment.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsDaily highs and Channel highs 25,170Major Pivot 25,500 +/- 75 ptsintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (recent highs)All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)Support LevelsSupport 25,000 to 25,250 (testing)Session lows 24,83524,500 Main support and Pivot (recent rebound)October and November lows just below 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 – Still rangebound zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – December 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView Despite the Double Top from last Friday, the 6,800 to 6,900 range is holding tight.Still, the current rebound is a bit shy after faking out below (6,789) so bulls still have to manage a stronger bounce to grab the hand.Bears will want to see a close below 6,800 to take control.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.