Gold is trading to a new session low and in the process is testing its 38.2% Fibonacci's's retracement at $4079.35, and also the swing low from March 19 at $4098.74. The low price as of just reach $4081.69 between those two levels. A move below those levels takes the price to the lowest level going back to November 2025 and opens the door for further selling.This area is a key barometer for both buyers and sellers. Which way will the market traders take the price. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin has been trending lower since peaking on May 10 near its 200-day moving average (green line on the chart above). The inability to move above and stay above that key technical level gave sellers the upper hand and provided the first clue that the rally was running out of steam.Selling pressure intensified when the price broke below the 100-day moving average (blue line on the chart above). That break attracted additional momentum sellers, helping to accelerate the decline. Over the next five trading days, Bitcoin fell sharply and reached new lows for the year near $59,000.Since bottoming, buyers have stepped back into the market, helping to drive a recovery over the last several trading days. That rebound has now returned the price to a prior swing area between $64,200 and $65,000. What had previously acted as support is now serving as an important resistance zone.For the last seven trading days, Bitcoin has largely been trapped between support near $59,000 and resistance near $65,000. The market is currently consolidating within that broad range as buyers and sellers battle for control.Eventually, the stalemate will end with either a break above resistance or a move below support. Traders will be watching closely for increased momentum on the breakout, as a move beyond either boundary is likely to provide the next directional clue for the cryptocurrency. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Gold has cracked the March low.The spike low early in the war was $4097 and we've just broken through it. That puts gold back where it was in late November and -- needles to say -- lower for the year.The war and the risk mood aren't helping. US equities are also at the lows of the day, with the S&P 500 down 108 points, or 1.4%. There was a brief bounce in stocks and gold after the US CPI report but it's faded as war fears have mounted.Trump said the US would strike Iran "very hard" and we continue to wait for that. It was odd to forewarn them and maybe there is a signal there but maybe not. The problem with escalation and a fresh spike in oil prices is that it may force some emerging markets to sell gold reserves to support their currencies or to pay for the oil.That was clear early in the conflict when Turkey sold $120 billion in reserves. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The price of crude oil moved higher in trading today with a gain of $1.83 or 2.07% at $90.03. The high price extended to $91.84 help by geopolitical news out of the Middle East that the US would continue their bombings of Iran. The oil inventory data was also supportive with a crude oil inventory decline of -7.4 million barrels.The move higher pushed the price back above its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages (blue and green lines on the chart above) six, currently at $91.07 and $91.64 respectively. However, buyers were unable to build on that momentum, and the price has since rotated back to the downside. Buyers had their opportunity but failed to seize control. Sellers are still in play and control.For the bias to shift back in favor of the bulls, the price needs to move above those key moving averages and stay above them. Until then, sellers remain firmly in the game. On the downside, the next key target comes in a swing area between $85.45 and $86.35. A break below that zone would strengthen the bearish case and open the door for a move toward the April low at $78.97.If buyers can regain control and hold above the moving averages, traders will turn their focus to the downward-sloping trend line near $91.64, which continues to move lower over time. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions that might normally send oil prices sharply higher, the rally has been relatively restrained. The muted response suggests markets remain hopeful that a resolution—or at least a de-escalation—of the conflict may not be far away. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The SpaceX IPO is on Friday with the company raising $75 billion in the IPO which would value the company at US$1.75 trillion. It's both the largest capital raise and the largest company to ever IPO, even though just 4.2% of the company will be floated.The company will be fast-tracked into indexes and that should add some bids after 10 trading days (and in the lead up) when it's to be included. All that adds up to a successful IPO at $135/share and if reports can be believed, it's four times oversubscribed.Gun to my head: I'm buying it despite it's wild overvaluation.The problem is down the road when more and more shares hit the market. The launch is said to make 4000 employees millionaires, including a report that one of them is a cafeteria worker.Employees are going to want to sell shares, or at least some of them. They can't right away but after the quarter ending in June — its first results as a public company — insiders can sell up to 20% of their eligible locked-up shares. If shares have risen at least 30% above the IPO price, they can sell another 10% of their holdings.The results are due around July 28-August 14 so that will be the critical window.It doesn't get any easier from there as there are lockup expiry tranches at days 70/90/105/120/135. Another 28% is available after Q3 earnings and everything free at day 180. Musk himself holds 42% of the company but can't sell for 1 year along with other significant shareholders that are said to hold about 60% of the value of the company.All told, there is a slow-motion climb in the public float and how quickly it's liquidated will likely depend on how the share price is doing and how the company performs. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The dip buyers are getting beaten up today.The market briefly rose into positive territory shortly after the open but it's been downhill since Trump started talking about striking Iran "very hard." Now Israel's Minister of Defense Katz is saying the war with Iran is "far from over" and the IDF is prepared to strike with far greater force.WTI crude oil is at the highs of the day, up $3.45 to $91.65.The S&P 500 fell as much as 1.3% but in the past few minutes, it's pared that to 1.0%.Eyes will be on tomorrow's IPO of SpaceX, which will be the biggest ever. There is a sense that some investors are selling a few tech names in order to raise capital to participate. Tesla shares are down 3.0% and at the lowest since May 1.Trump is also out with a message on Truth Social about getting out through Hormuz:Last month, I directed our Great U.S. Military to execute a secret mission to support Oil Tankers and other Commercial Ships through the Straight of Hormuz. Today, I am pleased to announce that this effort has resulted in more than 100 MILLION Barrels of Oil making its way through the Straight, and into the Open Market. More than 200 Commercial Ships have safely traveled through the Strait. This wildly successful effort is because the UNITED STATES of AMERICA CONTROLS the Strait of Hormuz — NOT Iran. Their military is defeated, and their economy is lost. It’s over for Iran! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMPThis is likely through the rumored route hugging Oman's coast. If anything, 100 million barrels sounds like a lot but it's less than 1 day's worth of global demand. Certainly, it's cushioned the supply crunch but it's only buying time as 10-12 million barrels are cut off each day and the ships that have gone out aren't coming back in for more. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Treasury Sec Bessent:US has disrupted procurement networks that support Iran.Frozen the Iranians regimes assetsseverely disrupted is economy.Dismantled its war machineBessent adds that the US treasury will not tolerate any support of the Iranian military. arlier Pres. Trump said that the US will be attacking Iran hard and that they have the right to resume attacks on Iran even there drone shooting of an Apache helicopter. He said that he was not going to say whether they're going to knock out bridges and power plants. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

High yield 4.538%.WI level at the time of the auction 4.539%.Tail -0.1 basis points versus six auction average of 0.6 basis pointsBid to cover 2.57X versus 2.44XDirects 12.3% versus average of 21.1%Indirects 78.21% versus average of 67.6%Dealers 9.5% vs average 11.4%Auction Grade B+The only negative was that the domestic buyers were much less than the average. The international buyers made up for the shortfall and the dealers were saddled with less than the average which is indicative of solid demand. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The US treasury will auction off $39 billion of 10 year notes at the top of the hour. The current 10 year yield is at 4.534%. At the last auction the yield was set at 4.468%.Since the war started on February 28, the low yield was at 3.926% on March 2, the high was reached at 4.687% on May 19. The corrective low reached since the high has dipped to 4.422% reached last week. Why the 10-Year Yield Matters Mortgage Rates – Higher yields usually lead to higher mortgage rates, which can slow home sales and construction. Business Borrowing – Companies pay more to borrow when yields rise, potentially reducing investment and hiring. Stock Valuations – Higher yields make bonds more attractive and can pressure stock prices, especially growth and tech stocks. Government Debt Costs – Rising yields increase the government's interest expense on new borrowing. Economic Outlook – The 10-year yield reflects market expectations for growth, inflation, and future Fed policy. Why Traders Watch ItThe 10-year yield influences housing, business investment, government finances, stock valuations, and Fed expectations, making it one of the most important indicators in financial markets.Other key components to eye from the auction results (6 auction average):Bid to cover 2.44XTail 0.6 basis pointsDealers 11.4%Directs 21.1%Indirects 67.6%A higher bid to cover and negative Tail (the difference between the WI level at the time of the auction and the high yield at the auction) is indicative of strong demand. if Dealers are saddled with less than the average it implies either domestic or international (or both) buyers were strong. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Looking at the closing levels for the European indices, the UK FTSE 100 is the only bright light with a gain of 0.27%. The worst performer is the German Dax. A look at the closing levels shows: German DAX, -0.83%France CAC -0.51%UK's FTSE 100 +0.27%Spain's Ibex, -0.18%Italy's FTSE MIB -0.46%.As London traders exit for the day, US stocks remain under pressure: Dow industrial average -600 points or -1.18% at 50279S&P index -67 points or -0.90% at 7319.50NASDAQ index -313 points or -1.23% at 25362.50Ahead of the 10 year note auction at 1 PM, the US yields are trading little changed:2-year yield -0.2 basis points at 4.1224%5 year yield -0.1 basis points at 4.251%.10 year yield unchanged at 4.528%30 year yield -0.1 basis points at 5.009%.The price of crude oil is moving higher. The price is up $2.80 or 3.07% at $90.99. The high for the day has reach $91.47. The low was at $87.39. Crude oil inventories fell -7.227 million barrels as a drain continues.Gold prices are down $-134 or -3.13% at $4126.16.Silver is down $0.43 or -0.69% at $64.86Bitcoin is trading at $62,148. Since bottoming on June 4 at $59,100, the price rotated to $64,197 and trades between those levels.The Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, where it has remained since October, while acknowledging that the Middle East conflict is slowing global growth and pushing inflation higher through rising energy prices. The Bank noted that Canada's economy remains soft, with Q1 GDP weaker than expected and excess supply still present, although growth is expected to resume in the second quarter. While officials continue to look through the near-term impact of higher energy prices, the statement adopted a slightly more hawkish tone by emphasizing that the Bank "will not let higher energy prices become persistent inflation." Governor Macklem stressed that future policy could move in either direction, with potential rate cuts if U.S. trade restrictions significantly hurt growth, or rate hikes if elevated energy costs begin feeding into broader and more persistent inflation pressures.US CPI was a mixed report, with the headline reading ugly but the core details less alarming. Headline CPI rose 0.5% m/m, lifting the unrounded annual rate to 4.25%, the hottest since April 2023, driven largely by another surge in energy and gasoline prices. Energy rose 3.9% m/m and gasoline jumped 7.0%, accounting for more than 60% of the monthly increase. However, core CPI rose just 0.2% m/m, below expectations, while shelter slowed to 0.3%, OER eased to 0.3%, and motor vehicle insurance fell 1.7%. The report leaves the Fed with a dilemma: the headline inflation trend is moving sharply higher because of the oil shock, but the underlying details argue against panic. For now, markets showed little immediate change, with rate-hike pricing largely steady for September and December. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

When the price of any traded asset breaks below a key technical level, it typically shifts the bias in the direction of the break and turns that level into an important risk-defining area. That is the situation silver finds itself in after closing below its 200-day moving average yesterday for the first time since April 2025, more than a year ago. The 200-day moving average, currently at $67.26, now serves as a key barometer for the trend. As long as the price remains below that level, sellers retain the technical advantage.On the downside, silver traded to a low of $63.38 today, briefly moving below the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the April 2025 low, which comes in at $63.98. However, buyers stepped in and the price has since rebounded to around $64.76. That leaves the market caught in a battle between the 61.8% retracement support level and the overhead resistance from the 200-day moving average.For now, the sellers remain in control while the price stays below the 200-day moving average. A renewed move below the 61.8% retracement with momentum would strengthen the bearish case and shift focus toward the March swing low and the 2026 low at $61.02.If sellers are able to break below $61.02, the technical picture would deteriorate further. Beyond that level, chart support becomes sparse, leaving room for a deeper decline toward the next significant support zone near $54.46. Silver began the year with strong bullish momentum, rallying sharply from its year-end closing level of $71.60 to a peak of $121.64 on January 29. However, that surge proved unsustainable, and the metal quickly reversed course, plunging to $64.10 by February 6.Since then, price action has been marked by heightened volatility, with large swings in both directions. The decline extended to a new low for the year at $61.02 on March 23 before buyers regained control and drove prices higher. That recovery culminated in a swing high of $89.37 on May 13.The rally from the March low has since given way to another sharp correction. Since the May peak, silver has fallen approximately 28% in just 18 trading days, underscoring the aggressive selling pressure that has emerged and the elevated volatility that continues to characterize the market. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump cites the downed helicopter.We want a deal that's meaningful and worksWe're going to hit them again hard todayWe'll see what happens with the dealThey keep tapping us alongThey should sign the dealDeclined to say he was going to hit bridges and power plantsThey have agreed to not have a nuclear weapon, all they need to do is sign the paperOn the deal "it's fully negotiated"This is obviously escalation, the only thing that gives me some pause is him saying "today" rather than suggesting it's a campaign. He's also referring back to the deal.At the same time, it sounds like he thinks he can bomb them into accepting his deal terms. If anything, this might push them further away.US stocks are at the lows of the day with the S&P 500 down 1.1%. WTI is quickly to $91.30, up about $1.30 on the headlines.I also wonder if pre-announcing an attack also gives Iran an off-ramp. You're obviously not going to kill any senior commanders if you give them an opportunity to go underground with a fore warning.Other comments:On USMCA says "I'm not looking to renew it"The US does not need anything Canada or Mexico hasMexico and Canada must treat us betterWe're talking to Canada and Mexico, we will seeSays he has a meeting with AI companies and wants a government stakeWill meet with 15 top executives shortly"I think they'll do that" on the gov't stakeOn Fannie/Freddie says "I have the right to sell it"Full quote on USMCA "I don't know that I'm going to renew it because, to be honest with you, the United States does much better. And we don't need anything that Canada has. We don't need anything that Mexico has."Trump’s wording makes it sound like USMCA needs an affirmative “renewal” in 2026 or it immediately dies. That is not how it works. If one country, including the US, refuses to confirm extension in 2026, USMCA does not immediately end. Instead, it goes into annual reviews. The agreement can keep operating during that period, but with rising uncertainty.The separate issue is withdrawal. Any party can withdraw from USMCA by giving six months’ written notice. He's not threatening withdrawal here but that's a risk. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump earlier talked about the US hitting back and I'd say that's likely but a bit less on this. This is a guy who was talking tough every day during the early phase of the war and now there's a comment like this? That reads as someone looking for a way out of this.It looks like Iran is trying to establish escalation dominance with the US, or at least escalation parity.At the moment, the stock market is getting beaten up on a tech reversal but oil has come down and that's the Iran trade. The Russell 2000 is also down just 0.4%.Given this it's tough to take the side of "huge escalation is coming" at the moment but you never know with Trump. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Gold extended its decline today after breaking below its 200-day moving average yesterday, a key technical development. The 200-day moving average currently sits at $4,415.51, and the break marked the first sustained move below that benchmark since November 2023. The last meaningful test came in March of this year, when buyers successfully defended the level and pushed prices back higher.Looking at the daily chart, the next major downside targets are coming into focus. The price is approaching the March 2026 low at $4,098.74. Just beneath that level sits the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the September 2022 low at $4,079.35. With those two support levels separated by less than $20, the area should attract buying interest from traders looking to lean against support with defined risk.A break below both levels, however, would represent a significant technical setback and give sellers greater control of the longer-term trend.The hourly chart reinforces the bearish bias. Looking at the chart below, in addition to breaking below the 200-day moving average, gold's corrective rally yesterday stalled within a key swing area between $4,350 and $4,373 before turning lower once again (see red numbered circles and yellow area on the chart below). That resistance zone, along with the falling 100-hour moving average at $4,335, represents the first upside hurdles for buyers. A move back above those levels would increase confidence that a more meaningful recovery is underway.For now, the technical picture favors the sellers. However, the market is approaching a significant support zone. A break below it would strengthen the bearish case and open the door for further downside momentum. Hold above it, and gold could be poised for a corrective rebound following the sharp decline seen over the past several weeks. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Any Bank of Canada decision on a possible rate hike is less about a timeline and more about conditionsMacklem notes that core inflation has ticked downBank would also look at inflation expectations when mulling a possible rate hikeWeakness of Canadian economy tends to put downward pressure on pricesCanadian economy is not clearly in a recessionEconomy hasn’t really grown in the last year but it hasn’t shrunk eitherBank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers says risks to the economy are about where we saw them last timeBOC’s Rogers: We’ve got the rate where we think it needs to be right nowEven with a successful USMCA review, you can’t be certain about anything This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The major U.S. stock indices are trading lower on the day, but all have recovered from their post-CPI lows after the inflation report came in largely as expected and, importantly, not worse than anticipated.Dow Jones Industrial Average: -378 points (-0.74%)S&P 500: -26 points (-0.35%)NASDAQ Composite: -114 points (-0.45%)The NASDAQ briefly attempted to turn positive following the CPI release but has since rotated back to the downside. From a technical perspective, the index pushed above a key swing area resistance target at 25,701.90 (see renumbered circles on the chart above), reaching a session high of 25,726.00 before running into sellers and retreating.For buyers to regain control, the index needs to move back above that swing area and hold the break. A sustained move higher would shift attention toward the 200-hour moving average at 26,155.81, which represents the next significant upside target.On the downside, failure to reclaim and hold above the swing area keeps sellers in the game. In that scenario, traders will look toward yesterday's low near the 25,000 level as the next support target. A break below that level would increase downside momentum and expose the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the March 30 low, which comes in at 24,707.22. For the S&P 500, the index remains below its 200-hour moving average at 7,424.08, keeping the broader technical bias tilted to the downside. Today's rally attempt stalled at 7,396.56, remaining short of that key resistance level.On the downside, traders will be focused on the support zone between 7,321 and 7,341. A break below that area would strengthen the bearish case and shift attention toward yesterday's low near 7,233. If sellers can push below that level, the next downside target comes in at the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the March low, which is located at 7,123.08.As long as the index remains below the 200-hour moving average, sellers maintain a technical edge. Buyers need a move above that level to regain control and increase bullish momentum. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewThe stock market is presenting a tapestry of mixed performances today, with noteworthy movements in both solid gains and significant declines. Technology and consumer sectors are particularly in focus, echoing a day of divergent outcomes across the board.? Semiconductor Sector: Marked by its uneven performance, the semiconductor industry is seeing mixed signals. Nvidia (NVDA) experienced a decline of -0.99%, reflecting potential apprehensions among investors, while Micron (MU) managed a gain of +1.30%.? Technology & Software: Oracle (ORCL) stands out with a remarkable +3.12% boost, indicating investor optimism within the software and infrastructure arenas.? Consumer Cyclical: Amazon (AMZN) fell by -1.28%, while Tesla (TSLA) dropped by -1.63%, signaling possible uncertainty in consumer discretionary spending.? Energy Sector: Chevron (CVX) witnessed a rise of +1.33%, showcasing positive momentum in the oil and gas sector.? Financials: A blend of results here with Bank of America (BAC) slightly up +0.70% and Visa (V) encountering a decrease of -1.27%.Market Mood and TrendsThe market exhibits a somewhat cautious mood today as investors weigh sector-specific news and broader economic cues. The positive movement in certain tech companies, particularly Oracle, lends a sense of resilience amidst the semiconductor struggles.Conversely, declines in giants like Amazon and Tesla suggest caution in the consumer market landscape, influenced possibly by macroeconomic challenges or upcoming financial updates.Strategic RecommendationsWith technology showing pockets of strength, especially in software, investors are advised to keep an eye on upcoming earnings and any regulatory updates that might affect the sector's dynamics. The energy sector's positive performance may also present strategic opportunities, given today's positive momentum.Lastly, a diversified approach, keeping an eye on real-time market developments, can help navigate the current volatility. Balancing exposure between technology, energy, and stable financial assets could provide a hedge against potential downturns in more speculative areas.For more dynamic market insights, visit InvestingLive.com for trend updates and expert analyses. ?? This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Prior was -7974KGasoline +186K vs -471K expectedDistillates -200K vs -488K expectedAPI data from late yesterday:Crude -9120KGasoline -1190KDistillates +1320KThat API crude number was an eye-opener and it's part of why WTI is bid today, up $1.59 to $89.81. Back-to-back draws of this size would suggest the market is tighter than the headlines imply, particularly with refinery runs seasonally strong and exports humming. We're also just getting into the summer driving season.I worry that $90 oil has lulled Trump into a sense of security around the global inventory draws that are continuing and that we will hit tank bottoms. 66.2 million SPR barrels have been drained since the start of the war in the US alone.For background, the EIA weekly petroleum status report is published every Wednesday at 10:30 am ET by the US Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the Department of Energy. It's the most closely watched snapshot of US oil supply and demand.The headline number is the weekly change in commercial crude oil inventories, which excludes the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Alongside it, the report shows changes in gasoline and distillate stockpiles, refinery utilization rates, domestic crude production, imports and exports, and implied demand via product supplied.Inventory draws signal demand outpacing supply and are generally bullish for prices; builds suggest the opposite. Traders compare the figures against consensus expectations and against the private API survey released the prior evening, which serves as an imperfect preview.Cushing, Oklahoma stocks also get attention since that hub is the delivery point for WTI futures. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD moved lower ahead of the Bank of Canada rate decision, trading at 1.3907 just before the announcement. Following the release, the pair briefly dipped to a session low of 1.3900 before rebounding.From a technical perspective, the pair is now back below the 100-hour moving average at 1.3930. Earlier in the session, price action oscillated around that level, with the softer reaction to the U.S. CPI report helping to push the pair lower. The 100-hour moving average acted as support on June 5 and again yesterday, so a sustained move below the level shifts the bias modestly in favor of the sellers.What sellers have not been able to do, however, is force a break below the 200-hour moving average at 1.3886. That key support level attracted buyers on June 2 and again on June 1, reinforcing its importance. A move below the 200-hour moving average would strengthen the bearish case and open the door toward the next downside target at 1.3868, the lower boundary of a key swing area.For now, with the pair trading between the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, sellers have gained some control, but they still need a break below the 200-hour moving average to increase downside momentum. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Given the escalating tensions in the Middle East—including reports of an Iranian drone attack on an Apache helicopter and a subsequent U.S. retaliatory strike—one might have expected crude oil prices to surge. Instead, WTI crude is only modestly higher, up about $1.23 at $89.45, suggesting traders remain hesitant to aggressively price in a major supply disruption.From a technical perspective, the market remains vulnerable.On the hourly chart above, the price continues to trade below the closely converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages (blue and green lines) between $91.28 and $91.58. If buyers are to regain control, they need to push the price above those resistance levels and, more importantly, keep it there. Oil has spent much of the month oscillating around those moving averages, but the fact that it currently remains below them keeps the near-term bias tilted to the downside.At the same time, sellers have not yet delivered a decisive technical breakdown. Yesterday's low found support just ahead of the rising 100-day moving average, currently at $85.97 (blue line on the chart below), while today's low remains above the 50% retracement of the rally from the December 2025 low to the March 2026 high, which comes in at $87.23. Those levels represent important downside targets and support zones. A move below—and sustained trading beneath—both the 50% retracement and the 100-day moving average would strengthen the bearish case and give sellers firmer control of the market.For now, despite the geopolitical backdrop, the inability of crude oil to reclaim the 100- and 200-hour moving averages argues for a modestly bearish bias. However, sellers would still like to see a break below the $87.23 retracement level and the rising 100-day moving average at $85.96 to confirm and extend that control. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.