Key Takeaways from the Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) – May 2026Employment Trends Index (ETI) fell to 107.01 in May from an upwardly revised 107.88 in April, signaling some moderation in the labor market outlook. The ETI is a leading indicator for payroll employment, meaning it is designed to provide clues about future hiring trends rather than current employment conditions. Despite the monthly decline, the ETI remains 2.1 points higher than six months ago, suggesting the labor market continues to show overall resilience. May payrolls increased by 172,000 jobs, indicating current labor market conditions remain solid even as forward-looking indicators soften. Five of the eight ETI components contributed negatively in May, highlighting potential downside risks for employment growth in coming months. Major Negative Factors The largest drag came from the share of small businesses reporting positions that are "not able to be filled right now." Fell to 29% from 34% in April. Lowest level since May 2020. Suggests labor shortages are easing and hiring demand may be cooling. Job Openings (JOLTS) increased sharply above 7.6 million, but the Conference Board noted the gain was largely driven by an unusual increase in the professional and business services sector and may not be sustained. Initial unemployment claims rose to 214,800 in May, up from exceptionally low levels in April, although claims remain below year-ago levels. Real manufacturing and trade sales were little changed and made a small negative contribution. Industrial production also showed little change and contributed modestly to the decline. Positive Factors The share of involuntary part-time workers fell to 17.4% from 17.9%, indicating fewer workers are being forced into part-time employment. The percentage of consumers saying "jobs are hard to get" declined to 18.6% from 19.4%, marking the second consecutive monthly improvement. Temporary-help employment increased again, extending a positive trend that has been in place throughout 2026, although the contribution was smaller than in previous months. Market/Economic Interpretation The report suggests the labor market remains healthy but is showing early signs of cooling. Current hiring remains strong, but forward-looking indicators are becoming more mixed, with businesses reporting fewer hard-to-fill positions and unemployment claims edging higher. The Conference Board's message is essentially that the labor market is not weakening significantly, but the pace of employment growth may slow from current levels over the next several months. ETI Component SummaryNegative Contributors Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now Job Openings Initial Jobless Claims Real Manufacturing & Trade Sales Industrial Production Positive Contributors Involuntary Part-Time Workers Ratio Consumers Saying "Jobs Are Hard to Get" Temporary Help Employment Bottom Line: The ETI points to a labor market that remains resilient but is losing some momentum beneath the surface. The strong May payroll gain contrasts with a softer forward-looking outlook, suggesting employment growth could moderate later in 2026. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Israel's Netanyahu will apparently decide on escalation and Iran at their Security Council meeting this evening. Pres. Trump has urged a cease-fire. Headlines continue to contradict each other. US stocks are higher but not as high as premarket levels. The NASDAQ index is up around 290 points or 1.12% (the index was up over 500 points in premarket trading). The S&P index is up 0.73%. The Dow industrial average is up 0.33%. Gold prices are trading up around $10 at $4337.45. Recall from Friday, the price fell below its 200 day moving average for the first time since October 2023. That moving average currently comes in at $4407.15 (see green line on the chart below). Staying below that moving average gives the sellers more control. The low price from March 23 at $4098.74 is the next major target. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD extended its rally to a new high of 1.3953 today, the highest level since April 6. In doing so, the pair pushed above the April 6 high at 1.3948, signaling continued bullish momentum. However, the move stalled just short of the March 31 high at 1.3966, which remains the highest level of 2026 and an important technical target for buyers. The inability to reach and test that key resistance level attracted profit-taking and helped trigger a reversal lower as broader U.S. dollar selling emerged during the North American session.Part of the shift in sentiment came as U.S. equities rebounded, reducing some of the defensive demand for the U.S. dollar. At the same time, Treasury yields moved lower, with the 2-year yield falling 3.6 basis points and the 10-year yield declining 1.8 basis points, also taking some support away from the greenback. As a result, the USDCAD began to retrace a portion of its recent gains after failing to sustain the breakout to new highs.From a technical perspective, the reversal has taken the price back below the 100- and 200-bar moving averages on the 5-minute chart, both of which are currently clustered near 1.3942. The current price is trading around 1.3931, leaving those moving averages as close resistance. As long as the pair remains below that moving-average cluster, sellers have an opportunity to extend the correction lower. However, to gain more meaningful control, they still need to push the price below the 38.2% retracement of the rally from Friday’s low at 1.3919, followed by the 50% retracement level at 1.3909. Those levels represent the next key downside targets and would need to be broken to increase the bearish bias.On the other hand, if buyers can stabilize the pair and move back above the short-term moving averages, attention would quickly return to the highs at 1.3953 and then the March 31 peak at 1.3966. A break above that level would strengthen the bullish case and open the door for a continuation of the broader recovery that has been underway since the May 1 low near 1.3549. In the video above, I walk through the technical levels driving the pair and explain what buyers and sellers need to do to take greater control going forward. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The headlines are fast and furious with the US seemingly trying to stay at arms length between Israel and Iran/Lebanon. Netanyahu and Trump spoke and subsequently Israel has ceased its preparations for a new round of strikes on Iran.. Earlier today Pres. Trump said that Iran and Israel were looking to do an immediate cease-fire. He added that a blockade will remain in place and in full force and effect until a final deal is reached.Overall the bias toward a weaker dollar is plodding along after Friday's sharp moved to the upside. Stocks have also continued their run to the upside with the NASDAQ now up over 500 points (536 points currently) after Friday's -1121 point decline. The S&P futures are up 62 points (the index fell -200.59 points on Friday). US yields are taking more to the downside with the two-year down -2.1 basis points and the 10 year down -0.6 basis points.In company specific news, Google and Nvidia are considering Intel as a secondary chip manufacturer. Intel shares are currently up 10% at $109. Last week Intel shares tumbled -13.52% closing had $99.17. The use of Intel is reportedly to ease pressure on TSMC's constraints and production:Other chip manufacturers are higher with Micron shares up 8.4% after falling -11.02% last week. AMD shares are up 4.27% after falling -9.63% last weekBroadcom shares are up 3.38% after falling -13.66% last weekMarvell Technology was one of the weakest performers on Friday and one of the strongest performers for the week. It's shares fell -16.74% on Friday but were up 28.52% for the week. Today, it's shares are up 8.27%.Nvidia shares are up 2.57% after falling -6.2% on Friday and -2.86% for the weekApple kicks off its annual Worldwide Developers Conference today, with the keynote starting at 10am PT / 1pm ET streaming live. This year's event — themed "All systems glow" — is widely expected to be Apple's most AI-focused WWDC in the company's history, a sharp pivot from last year when AI was largely absent from the conversation.The centerpiece announcement is expected to be a dramatically revamped Siri, rebuilt with a chatbot-like interface and powered in part by Google's Gemini AI model. Apple is also rumored to introduce a new "Search or Ask" screen accessible by swiping down from the top of the display, acting as a unified hub for Siri, app suggestions, and contextual information. That said, Apple is still reportedly labeling the new Siri internally as a "beta," meaning it may launch behind a waitlist when iOS 27 ships in September rather than as a polished finished product.On the software side, full updates are expected across every platform all with AI features woven throughout. The Liquid Glass design language introduced last year is expected to be extended further across the ecosystem. Hardware announcements are possible but unlikely, with Apple believed to be holding back new devices until the AI software is ready for the general public.The keynote also carries unusual leadership significance, coming amid the widely reported transition from Tim Cook to John Ternus as CEO — making today one of the more closely watched Apple events in years beyond just the product announcements. Apple shares are trading up 0.27% at $308.15 in premarket trading. Last week it's shares fell -1.51%. It also traded at a new record high of $316.94 before backing off into the weekend.Crude oil is trading at $91.75 up $1.21 or 1.38%.Bitcoin is trying to bounce off of lows from last Friday which saw the price dip to $59,100. That low was not surpassed over the weekend. The current price is trading at $63,893. Looking at the hourly chart, the price has moved back above its falling 100 hour moving average at $62,049. The 200 hour moving average is currently at $65,717. Getting above both those moving averages would be more positive from a short-term technical perspective (with work to do). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USD is lower vs the major currencies to start the North American session and the new trading week. The declines come after sharp gains in the dollar on Friday as yields moved higher, and stocks moved sharply lower with the NASDAQ index losing over 1100 points on geopolitical concerns and a stronger than expected US jobs report. Fed funds futures are now leaning toward tightening - not easing - in 2026. The strong labor market and rising energy prices have pushed the market to price a meaningful probability of at least one rate hike this year, while expectations for rate cuts have largely disappeared.Having said that, the tone has improved this morning. Pres. Trump has posted on Truth Social:Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on “Peace” are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way. The Blockade will remain in place, and in full force and effect, until a “Final Deal” is reached. Things should move quicklyIt is curious that the word "peace" is in quotations (as if not not believe it), but the markets have jumped on the good story. Subsequently Iran announced end of military operations against Israel, BUT warned of harsher attacks if Israel resumes attacks on Lebanon. Over the weekend, Israel launched missiles toward Lebanon despite Pres. Trumps pleas to not do it. Now it seems there is a truce. The USD has moved lower with the USD down by 0.19% versus the EUR, by -0.22% versus the JPY and -0.20% versus the GBP. The declines versus the NZD (-0.59%) and the AUD (-0.41%) are larger as some of the risk-off trades from Friday are unwound. In the video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD - from a technical perspective and outline the key technical levels in play including the bias, the risk levels, and targets. Crude oil is trading lower from higher levels with the current price at $91.57. That is still about $1.00 up on the day, but well off the highs of $95.47. The low price is at $91.52 not far from the current levels.Looking at the US stock indices in premarket trading:Dow industrial average is up 146 points, after falling 695 points on FridayS&P index is up 56 points after falling -200.59 points.NASDAQ index is up 378 points after tumbling -1121.53 points on FridayLooking at the US debt market, yields are little changed but modestly lower in the short end after Friday's move higher:2 year 4.151% -1.1 basis points5 year 4.274%, -0.6 basis points10 year 4.540%, +0.4 basis points30 year 5.006%, +0.8 basis pointsIn other markets:Gold is up $5.40 or 0.12% at $4332Silver is up #0.61 or 0.91% at $68.50UPDATED (10 minutes later).Israel sources says "Our operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon are ongoing"There are also reports of airstrikes targeting Tyre, LebanonNetanyahu and Trump spoke with Netanyahu saying that Pres. Trump and he were "consensual" in positions.There is no believing what is said. Despite the news headlines. the US stock market is remaining positive with the NASDAQ index now up 400 points in premarket futures trading. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Iran's armed forces announce end of military operations against IsraelTrump: Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE!Iran is prepared for a prolonged conflict with Israel and for strikes against US interestsIran says that US is directly responsible for recent breaches in ceasefireOil prices move back up to start the week as Middle East tensions flare upGold tumbles to fresh monthly lows as strong NFP delivers hawkish Fed reality checkEuro area investor sentiment recovers slightly in June but dark clouds remainGerman factory orders fall in April as stockpiling, advanced ordering effect dissipatesMarkets:WTI crude up 1.8% to $92.14European indices mixed, little changedS&P 500 futures up 0.8%, Nasdaq futures up 1.4%NZD leads, USD and CHF lagUS 10-year yields flat at 4.54%Gold down 0.1% to $4,325It's a brand new week but the market focus stays the same, with it being all about the US-Iran conflict still.The latest developments from the weekend saw Iran and Israel exchange missile strikes, with tensions mounting and questions being raised over how this will impact the US-Iran deal overall.The session started with a further exchange of salvos, with Israel targeting strategic facilities in Iran while Iran moved to target the West Bank and central Israel with its own ballistic missile launches.That kept oil prices underpinned with the risk mood keeping on edge, as US futures fluctuated between slight gains and losses.But when US president Trump got up, he called for an end to the hostilities and eventually that led to Iran calling off its military operations against Israel - for now at least.That helped to see the risk mood pick up as Trump continues to tout that a deal is "very close". However, we're still yet to see anything to show for it and this ceasefire also still doesn't excuse the fact that Israel can break it all by attacking Lebanon as they have been doing.As such, that is still one key red line that needs to stick in order for the US-Iran deal to hold for the next 60 days once announced.In any case, markets are recovering some poise after the heavy losses on Friday and from earlier today. Oil prices are still up but off early highs, with WTI crude now up 1.8% to $92.14 - though down from above $95 earlier.Meanwhile, European indices are lightly changed but paring losses for the most part while US futures are pushing higher. Tech shares are leading the charge, looking to produce a strong rebound from the sharp decline on Friday.S&P 500 futures are up 0.8% while Nasdaq futures are up 1.4% with semiconductor shares rebounding back. Broadcom shares are up near 3% in pre-market, with Micron shares up over 6% and AMD shares up nearly 3% ahead of the open.Amid the barrage of headlines, the dollar is down slightly with USD/JPY backing away from 160.20 to just below 160.00 currently. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is up 0.1% to 1.1535 and AUD/USD up 0.3% to 0.7070 on the day.Looking elsewhere, 10-year Treasury yields are moving back to flat levels at 4.54% and gold has pared deep losses from $4,270 earlier to be down just 0.1% to $4,325 at the moment.It's still all to play for though as the conflict drags on for longer and a more hawkish Fed looks to enter the chat. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Fars News reports that Iran's armed forces announced end of military operations against Israel, but warned of harsher attacks if Israel resumes attacks on Lebanon.The signals of an imminent end were already up in the air with Trump's posts on Truth Social, and now we've got the confirmation. This is leading to a relief rally in risk assets and a drop in oil prices as the worries of a broader escalation ease.For context, Trump this morning posted on Truth Social: "Israel and Iran must immediately stop shooting". This was then followed by another post where Trump said that Israel and Iran were looking for an immediate ceasefire.As mentioned previously, the core problem remains: the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed and keep oil prices persistently elevated. Moreover, this latest escalation is almost certainly going to extend US-Iran stalemate. It's also worth reminding that the catalyst for the selloff in markets on Friday was the very strong NFP number as it served as a wake-up call for the hawkish Fed risk. It wasn't related to Middle East. The focus has shifted to the Fed now.Monetary tightening into a negative supply shock is an ugly recipe for growth and that's going to weigh on markets if the Fed indeed tightens. If Trump doesn't end this soon, the Fed is going to do it for him and it won't be nice. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Advanced traders no longer operate from a single screen. They run bots, track dashboards, feed signal pipelines, query analytics systems, and increasingly explore AI-driven tools — all simultaneously, all demanding live data, structured account access, and execution logic that moves at the speed of the market.Conventional trading interfaces were not designed for that reality.XBTFX has rolled out its Trading API to address that gap: a full-stack, programmable access layer giving algo traders, fintech developers, trading bot builders, and AI-focused market participants direct, structured connectivity to compatible XBTFX trading account functions, live market data, and execution workflows — without the constraints of a platform-only environment.REST and WebSocket Access: Real-Time Data and On-Demand ControlThe XBTFX Trading API functions across two complementary layers. The REST API handles on-demand account interaction — balance, equity, margin, open positions, floating PnL, active orders, trade history, and symbol data — forming the backbone for custom dashboards, risk monitoring tools, and reporting pipelines. The WebSocket layer handles everything that cannot wait: live bid/ask quote streaming, real-time account state updates, and event-driven data delivery for automated systems and execution triggers.Together, they give algo traders, bot builders, developers, signal providers, and data-driven market participants the structured, real-time connectivity to build trading workflows that are not confined by a single platform interface.AI-Assisted Trading Workflows: From Experimental to Infrastructure-ReadyThe most forward-looking dimension of this launch is its direct relevance to AI-assisted trading infrastructure — one of the most actively developing areas in fintech today.AI agents, LLM-based assistants, coding tools, and autonomous workflow systems are being tested and deployed in trading contexts at an accelerating rate. What has held many of these initiatives back is not the intelligence layer — it is the absence of reliable, structured connectivity to live trading account data and execution functions.An AI assistant cannot monitor an account it cannot query. A coding agent cannot respond to a market condition it cannot observe. The XBTFX Trading API delivers exactly those connection points.The strongest use case is not AI supplanting trader judgment. It is AI operating as infrastructure: monitoring positions, structuring live market data, surfacing predefined conditions, and interacting with execution logic within parameters the trader sets and controls. For developers building with large language models or AI agents, the XBTFX Trading API provides the structured, queryable, real-time access layer that makes these workflows architecturally sound — not theoretical.Developer Resources and API Console: From Discovery to Live IntegrationAlongside the Trading API, XBTFX is releasing a complete developer ecosystem — including a full capability overview, comprehensive documentation with REST endpoint references, an interactive API Console for live request testing, API key management, WebSocket streaming guidance, and integration examples — giving users a direct path from exploration to live integration.From Multi-Asset Broker to Programmable Trading InfrastructureThe XBTFX Trading API represents a deliberate evolution in what XBTFX brings to the market. Trading infrastructure is no longer a concern reserved for institutional desks. Independent algo traders, bot builders, and AI-focused market participants now demand the same class of connectivity and programmability that institutional systems have long provided.XBTFX is closing that gap — delivering a trading environment where advanced users can build the tools they want, automate the workflows they design, and connect their trading activity to the broader systems they already rely on.The value is not a promise of better trading performance. The value is infrastructure that reflects how serious traders and builders actually work.Start Building with the XBTFX Trading APIExplore the full API capability overview, access developer documentation, test available endpoints in the API Console, and generate API credentials through the official XBTFX developer portal.About XBTFXXBTFX is a multi-asset online broker providing access to global financial markets including forex, cryptocurrencies, metals, indices, commodities, and stocks through CFD Instruments. The company serves retail and active traders, strategy providers, and technology-driven market participants through a unified trading ecosystem built for execution, automation, developer access, and AI-enabled workflows.Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products including CFDs carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Automated and API-based trading can increase execution speed and operational complexity, and may expose users to additional technical and market-related risks. All automated workflows should be thoroughly tested before deployment in live market conditions. Ensure you fully understand the risks involved and consider seeking independent financial advice if necessary. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

Trump on Truth Social:Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on “Peace” are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way. The Blockade will remain in place, and in full force and effect, until a “Final Deal” is reached. Things should move quickly. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMPThis is lifting the risk sentiment and might lead to a minor pullback. The core problem remains: "the blockade will remain in place until a final deal is reached". This means the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed and keep oil prices persistently elevated.It's worth reminding that the catalyst for the selloff in markets on Friday was the very strong NFP number as it served as a wake-up call for the hawkish Fed risk. It wasn't related to Middle East. The focus has shifted to the Fed now.Monetary tightening into a negative supply shock is an ugly recipe for growth and that's going to weigh on markets if the Fed indeed tightens. If Trump doesn't end this soon, the Fed is going to do it for him and it won't be nice. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Iran has signalled that it is prepared for a prolonged confrontation with Israel and warned that US interests in the region could also come under threat.Iranian officials have increasingly linked Washington to Israeli military operations. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said the United States bears direct responsibility for Israeli actions in the region, arguing that Tehran views Israel's attacks as being conducted in coordination with Washington. The remarks reflect a growing Iranian narrative that the United States is not merely supporting Israel militarily but is actively enabling its operations. The comments follow reports that US forces have assisted Israel in intercepting incoming Iranian missiles and drones. While US officials have emphasized that American involvement has been limited to defensive measures and does not include participation in strikes against Iranian targets, Tehran appears increasingly unwilling to draw a distinction between defensive support and offensive cooperation.Iranian officials have repeatedly argued that US military assistance, intelligence sharing, and missile defense support make Washington a party to the conflict. The statement also comes amid mounting concerns that repeated violations of ceasefire arrangements could further undermine efforts by international mediators to contain the crisis.The good news is that Trump is actively trying to stop this latest escalation and it's highly likely that he will succeed, but the problem is that the US-Iran stalemate is almost certainly going to extend further. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWGold sold off on Friday as the very hot NFP gain with higher revisions for the prior months served as a wake-up call that the Fed could be forced to tighten monetary policy. The job gains have been much higher than the estimated breakeven rate lately. The unemployment rate fell to an unrounded 4.29% vs 4.33% in the prior month. Following the NFP report, the market fully priced in a rate hike by year-end with the total tightening standing at 30 bps right now. We can now expect the Fed to drop the easing bias at the upcoming meeting, but the focus will be mostly on the dot plot and forward guidance. Even though a rate hike is now fully priced in, if the Fed endorses the market pricing, it will effectively confirm that the bias has now shifted to tightening and might trigger another selloff in gold.This week, the most important event will be the US CPI report release on Wednesday (barring a surprising breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations). The question for markets is now when and how many rate hikes the Fed might deliver by year-end. Upside surprises would be seen as more hawkish and will likely weigh further on gold prices. Conversely, lower than expected figures should alleviate some of the most hawkish fears and might trigger a relief rally in the short-term. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold is approaching the major upward trendline. If the price gets there, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into the major downward trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 3,885 level next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price broke below the key 4,350 level following the hot NFP number and extended the drop into new lows. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup on a retest of the support now turned resistance around the 4,350 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price rising back above the resistance to extend the pullback into the minor downward trendline next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see the NFP triggered a break below the 4,425 support with more sellers piling in to extend the drop into new lows. There’s not much else we can add here as the resistance around the 4,350 level and the major upward trendline remain the key short-term levels. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday, we have the NY Fed consumer inflation expectations survey. On Wednesday, we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US PPI report. On Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Trump on Truth Social:Israel and Iran must immediately stop “shooting.” President DONALD J. TRUMPThere have been also reports that the US is assisting in intercepting Iranian missiles but not in attacks. I don't think Iran is going to care much about the difference. I feel like this escalation is going to resolve soon but the problem is that the US-Iran stalemate is almost certainly going to extend further and that's going to keep oil prices elevated. That's the most important thing as the hawkish Fed risks are now taking centre stage.If Trump doesn't end this on his own, the Fed is going to do it for him and it won't be nice... This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The rollercoaster ride continues as we see oil prices move back up to start the new week today. That comes amid heightened tensions in the Middle East as Iran and Israel are involved in military exchanges since the weekend. Missile strikes are keeping up even until this morning and Iran is not shying away from placing the blame on the US in all of this.Despite once again US president Trump reaffirming that a deal is "very close", the reality of the situation begs to differ.And as we get things going this week, we're not closer to a deal than in the past week and even the week before that. As a reminder, the talk of the town two weeks ago was that a deal was "imminent". Yet, here we are now.As the ceasefire is breached and the US/Israel continues to keep crossing one of Iran's key red lines, a framework agreement certainly does not seem to be in the offing. And as such, we're seeing oil prices move back up again to start the week.WTI crude is up 4.5% to $94.60 and is recovering back the drop from the second half of last week.The chart presents an interesting technical situation with a flag/narrowing wedge pattern developing now. As tensions start to heat back up, the price action in oil suggests that a technical breakout may follow soon enough. And if accompanied by the right headlines, it could be one that see prices really run in one direction after much pushing and pulling in recent weeks.So, be sure to keep an eye out on the headlines but also just be wary of the technical development that is forming above. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Investor confidence -13.4 vs -14.6 expectedPrior -16.4Euro area investor morale picked up more than expected heading into June, as concerns about a deep economic slowdown eased compared to the previous month. That said, the overall reading remains relatively subdued following the steep drop since April.As things stand, the mood surrounding the euro area economic outlook is still rather poor compared to other major regions.Germany remains the biggest drag still, with the current conditions index there falling by another 0.2 points to its lowest since February 2025. The overall reading for the euro area with regards to the current situation index is at -20.0 (previously -21.5) while the expectations index rose to -6.5 (previously -11.3).Sentix notes that "concerns about a sharp economic downturn have eased noticeably" but warns that elevated energy prices will continue to weigh on inflation expectations and in turn, keep pressure on central banks. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

IRGC says they responded to Israel's attack on petrochemical plant by launching missile on similar plant in HaifaIRGC says Israel started a dangerous game by targeting oil industry and civilian sitesReports say Iran fired 30 missiles at Israel since SundayIran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson says overnight developments will only worsen the chaotic situation of the diplomatic process with the USIran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it launched a missile strike against a petrochemical facility in the Haifa area in response to Israeli attack on Iran's petrochemical sector. The IRGC accused Israel of "starting a dangerous game" by targeting oil and petrochemical infrastructure as well as civilian sites. The latest exchange follows Israeli strikes on Iran's Mahshahr petrochemical complex, one of the most significant attacks on Iran's energy sector since the April ceasefire took effect. Reports say that approximately 30 missiles have been fired at Israel since Sunday as Iran decided to retaliate against Israeli attacks on Beirut. The renewed hostilities have also cast a shadow over ongoing diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran. Iran's Foreign Ministry said the overnight developments would only deepen the already chaotic state of negotiations with the United States, echoing concerns that military escalation could derail talks that had been moving toward a potential agreement. The repeated attacks have raised doubts about whether negotiations can survive a renewed cycle of military confrontation.The targeting of petrochemical facilities has heightened concerns in global energy markets. Oil prices surged as traders assessed the possibility that attacks on energy infrastructure could expand further. Iranian officials warned that if attacks on energy assets continue, regional ones will be targeted. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

A light week ahead, as is usually the case following the NFP release, and while Monday has no major economic events scheduled, markets will watch for any developments related to the conflict in the Middle East. On Tuesday, Australia will release the Westpac consumer sentiment index and the U.S. will publish the ADP employment change report and existing home sales data. On Wednesday, the spotlight will be on U.S. inflation while in Canada the focus will be the BoC monetary policy announcement. On Thursday, attention will shift to the ECB monetary policy announcement and the U.S. PPI m/m release, which is often viewed as a leading indicator of consumer inflation. Finally, on Friday, the U.K. will release its GDP m/m data, while in the U.S., the focus will be on the preliminary UoM consumer sentiment index and preliminary inflation expectations. The Westpac consumer sentiment for Australia saw a modest recovery in May, rising 3.5% after a steep drop in April caused by surging fuel costs and repeated rate hikes. The index remained in pessimistic territory, hovering in the low 80s range despite the Federal Budget being released during the survey. Conditions haven't improved much since then with households continuing to face economic headwinds from slowing growth which was reflected in a weaker than expected first-quarter GDP and ongoing declines in house prices. As a reminder, the RBA delivered a third rate hike this year in May, taking the cash rate to 4.35%. In the U.S., the consensus for core CPI m/m is 0.5%, compared to the prior 0.4%, while core CPI y/y is expected to rise to 2.9% from 2.8%. Headline CPI m/m is forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.6% previously, while CPI y/y is expected to increase to 4.2% from 3.8%, which would mark the highest level in three years. According to Wells Fargo, the increase in inflation is driven primarily by higher energy costs, particularly gasoline prices, but food prices also registered a modest increase. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is expected to see only a marginal rise. Core goods likely received support from used vehicles, but other categories of goods appear to have experienced some easing in price pressures. Effects from the Iran conflict were immediately seen in airline fares due to higher jet fuel costs, but are slow to filter into other retail prices. Primary shelter inflation is expected to return to a 0.2-0.3% monthly pace, while strength in healthcare-related prices is projected to be largely offset by softer readings in motor vehicle insurance and personal services, leaving core services inflation broadly stable, analysts said. At this week's meeting, the Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. The conflict in the Middle East has contributed to higher oil prices, pushing headline inflation in Canada back above the Bank's 2% target. However, underlying price pressures remain relatively subdued, with core inflation measures showing signs of easing in recent data. At the same time, economic activity has been weaker than anticipated, with GDP contracting for a second consecutive quarter. Despite the soft headline growth figures, domestic demand has shown some resilience, analysts from RBC said. Consumer spending has continued to expand, and per-capita output has improved, suggesting that underlying economic conditions are firmer than the GDP data alone would indicate. Rising oil prices have also boosted national income by improving Canada's terms of trade. Labour market data remains mixed. The unemployment rate eased to 6.6% in May, layoffs continued to trend lower, and hours worked increased. However, hiring activity remains sluggish, particularly for new entrants into the workforce. Overall, recent data points to an economy that is slowing but not sharply deteriorating, reinforcing expectations that the BoC will maintain a cautious stance and keep rates unchanged for the time being. At this meeting, traders will closely monitor how policymakers assess the balance between recent economic softness and longer-term inflation risks. The Bank will also be watching whether higher energy prices and labour supply constraints keep inflation pressures elevated, while the upcoming USMCA review adds another layer of uncertainty for businesses. In the Eurozone, the ECB is widely expected to raise rates by 25 bps, taking the main deposit rate to 2.25% and main refinancing rate to 2.40%. There are still signs of persistent inflationary pressure across the eurozone. Supply-side disruptions in global shipping remain evident, while lower energy inventories and elevated energy prices continue to keep costs under pressure despite recent volatility. The latest flash CPI reading for May reinforces this picture, showing further acceleration, with short-term annualized measures of both headline and core inflation running well above their year-over-year rates. Price pressures have also broadened beyond the energy sector, with both services inflation and non-energy industrial goods inflation picking up in recent months, so the focus of this meeting will be on the ECB’s forward guidance. Policymakers are expected to emphasize the importance of restraining demand to reduce the risk of second-round inflation effects. Updated staff projections and scenario analyses are also likely to reflect a more challenging inflation environment than previously anticipated, analysts from Wells Fargo said. Markets are pricing in the start of the tightening cycle in June, with expectations that additional policy moves could follow later in the year, with a second rate increase as soon as July. This article was written by Gina Constantin at investinglive.com.

Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson is out with a message saying that the US is the one who is directly responsible for the recent ceasefire breaches. He also adds that Israel's actions in attacking Iran cannot be separated from US policies, and that the latest developments are fueling further distrust in any talks with the US.The message remains clear so far to start the new week. That being the US and Iran are still no closer to a deal than they were last week, and the week before, and the week before that. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the Swiss Consumer Confidence and the Eurozone Sentix reports. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central bank, so the market reaction will likely be muted. AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we just get the NY Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations survey. Last month, expectations for the 1-year ahead inflation increased to 3.6% vs 3.4%, but remained steady for the 3-year and 5-year horizons at 3.1% and 3.0% respectively. This is not a market-moving report but an increase on the 3-year and 5-year horizons could weigh on the market as the focus shifted to the Fed. The very hot NFP gain on Friday with higher revisions for the prior months served as a wake-up call that the Fed could be forced to tighten monetary policy. The job gains have been much higher than the estimated breakeven rate. The unemployment rate fell to an unrounded 4.29% vs 4.33% in the prior month. Following the NFP report, the market fully priced in a rate hike by year-end with the total tightening standing at 30 bps right now.If the situation in the Strait of Hormuz doesn't change, oil prices will likely remain persistently elevated. The market can support that with a dovish or neutral central bank but not with a hawkish one as that's going to weigh further on growth. This week's US CPI report is going to be the most important event (barring a surprising breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations). This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Industrial orders -3.8% vs -2.0% m/m expectedPrior +5.0%; revised to +4.5%After the big surge in March, German industrial orders fell back in April as the effect from stockpiling and advanced ordering looks to fade as quickly as it all came. Even if excluding large orders (the more volatile component), the monthly figure in April still reflected a 3.8% decline compared to March.As such, it is a good bet that the jump in March was largely tied to stockpiling and advanced ordering in anticipation of price increases and availability issues. And in April, the effect of that is wearing off as the Middle East conflict begins to bite.Looking to the less volatile three-month comparison, new orders from February to April were 3.1% lower than in the preceding three months. But when excluding large orders, they were up 3.5% over the same period. So, there is still some positive takeaway at least but again just be reminded of the caveat to the March numbers. Fearing the war, firms certainly looked to have moved to frontload inventory and run up the orderbook in fear that supply chain issues will strike.The more detailed breakdown for April shows foreign orders falling by 4.2% while domestic orders fell by 2.9%. Orders for capital goods were 2.9% lower, intermediate goods 4.4% lower, and orders for consumer goods fell by 6.7% compared to the month before. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There are just a few expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.The first is for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 level. The expiries don't tie to any technical significance but could line up together alongside bids near the figure level to keep price action just above for now. The downside pressure on the pair is mounting after the Friday selloff, with the dollar keeping in a good position as the US-Iran conflict rages on.The overall risk mood is in a more defensive spot to start the new week and that will help to keep the dollar underpinned barring any major shifts in the narrative. So, dollar sentiment will be the number one driver but the expiries could factor into play in providing a bit of a floor to price action for the session ahead at least.Then, there is one for USD/JPY at the 160.00 level. While sizable, the expiries may not have much of any impact as mentioned since last week.The name of the game for USD/JPY now is all about intervention risks. At some point if the currency pair ventures too far above 160.00, you would figure that Japan's ministry of finance will step in to try and knock price action back down.The invisible hand is the key risk and biggest potential driver of price action, so I wouldn't look to the expiries here as having much pull considering that the dollar is also keeping in a good spot since the end of last week.It is now just a question of where will Japan draw the line on intervening next.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.