Stock Benchmarks rebound after a terrible start to FebruaryWidespread rebound across all sectors, with Tech seeing a particular bounce (despite Amazon, Google and Meta struggling)Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 The green freight is back, pulling global equities sharply higher.A more fragile risk appetite following last week’s new Fed Chair announcement cascaded into a brutal, cross-asset selloff yesterday leaving Participants scratching their heads.First, lingering geopolitical anxiety (US-Iran) weighed heavily on sentiment.On top of that, recent mid-tier US labor data challenged the resilience narrative that showed throughout most releases since December.JOLTS, jobless claims, the Challenger layoffs report, and Tuesday’s ADP misses all pointed toward a labor market that is weakening rather than holding up, lowering expectations ahead of Wednesday’s NFP release. zoom_out_map Challenger Job Cuts – January 2026 report – Source: Challenger, Grey and Christmas Overnight, however, anxiety eased.Japan’s Nikkei 225 (+4.20%) led a powerful rebound ahead of Sunday’s snap elections, while dovish repricing for both the Fed and the Bank of England — alongside ongoing US-Iran discussions that have so far avoided escalation — helped fuel today’s risk rally.Even cryptocurrencies, which have been under heavy pressure, rebounded sharply after reaching key support zones. Bitcoin quickly flashed from $60,000 to $69,000!Whether the bounce holds remains the big question. One thing is clear: digital assets remain fragile and firmly back at the top of the volatility leaderboard. zoom_out_map Daily performance across Global Index Futures – Courtesy of Finviz Tech and software names are also catching a breather after months of drought, as investors had punished heavy AI-related CapEx amid fears of creative destruction.Services once sold at a premium are increasingly achievable with a few Claude or Gemini tools. While that reality still poses a threat to high-P/E companies, the sector is enjoying temporary relief.Nvidia is leading mega-cap performance alongside AMD — a dynamic not seen since October 2025 — while other Mag-7 names such as Google, Amazon, and Meta continue to struggle despite record earnings.Markets are growing less complacent about massive AI infrastructure spending as doubts around near-term profitability creep in. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:54 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – February 6, 2026 Traders are bracing for a volatile week ahead, but with noticeably less anxiety. Dovish expectations for NFP could further cement the odds of a March Fed cut, currently priced at just 15%.After diving into Weekly charts for Nasdaq and the Dow (I invite you to check them out), we move into today’s session charts and key trading levels for the major US indices: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 ahead of the weekend. Read More:US Dollar Index (DXY) tests 98.00 but shows signs of weakness ahead of NFPPrecious metals after the correction: stabilisation, not a new rallyBitcoin tumbles to $63,000 amid global Tech selloff – BTC/USD OutlookDow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – February 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones is once again outperforming its peers with traditional sectors seeing even crazier relative strength with the ongoing sentiment rebound.Now breezing through its preceding all-time highs, the Index will face a key test at the 50,000 milestone which could be reached for the first time in today's session!An enormous feat when seeing that the DJIA was just at 36,618 during the Liberation Day drop.Despite all the warnings and pessimistic sentiment, Equities consolidating at their highs really was a sign of strength (as indicated in our higher timeframe outlook). Nevertheless, recent volatility remains very tricky to trade, hence this run to new highs will be essential for days to come:Remaining above all-time highs will be a show of strength, particularly if the Index holds there after the Non-Farm payrolls.The 50,000 level will act as key psychological level, breaching it to the upside is a sign of further strength incomingWatch for any fakeouts on Monday which could have the opposite effectKeep a close eye on immediate action as prices reach the 49,900 to 50,000 resistance.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels49,900 to 50,000 Psychological Resistance49,927 session highs and ATH (CFD) – Index at 49,909Potential mini-Resistance 50,150Potential mini-Resistance 2 50,450Support LevelsJanuary ATH Resistance now Pivot From 49,500 to 49,700 (Bull above, bear below)Intraday Support 49,200 to 49,350Pivotal Support – 49,000 to 49,100 (acted as key support, watch if it breaks)Intraday Support 48,600 to 48,700Key Support around 47,50045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – February 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is leading quite a surprising rebound (+3.37% from lows) in today's action after struggling from rough outflows – It had initially been lagging the rise in the Dow Jones but is now catching up towards the mid-session.Still, the tech-heavy index will be under scrutiny over times to come, particularly as software-tech sector outflows have amassed quite some momentum.Evolving within a descending channel, bulls will want to push for a break above the 25,250 Pivot Zone highs (which will break the channel).Rejecting from there would be sending more bearish signs for continuation lower.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMinor Support now Pivot 25,000 to 25,25025,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistancePivotal Resistance 25,700 to 25,85026,246 FOMC highsAll-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Support LevelsFebruary 5 lows 24,16524,500 to 25,600 Key SupportOctober - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – February 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is also catching quite a breather after its fast paced descent to test the lows of its 6,700 to 7,000 broad range (holding there since December 2025).Despite the huge move higher, traders will want to see a break above the 7,020 All-Time Highs to confirm a further extension and a pursued rally.Keep an eye on the 4H 50 and 200 Moving Averages acting as imminent intraday resistance from 6,920 to 6,930.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels4H 50 and 200-period Moving Averages (6,918 and 6,930)Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH 7,020All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)Support LevelsKey Pivot Zone 6,880 to 6,900Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,8506,800 Psychological SupportOvernight lows 6,735 (range lows)6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran discussions!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (06/02/2026): In the last episode of the week, join TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart as they discuss a crash in precious metals and crypto pricing, described as a general move away from risk assets. Otherwise, we discuss how developments in AI are disrupting established tech companies, and the latest from the Bank of England. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar bounced higher after Warsh's nomination but is showing signs of stallingRecent labor data previews (JOLTS, Claims) showed unexpected weaknessDollar Index Technical Analysis ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls Markets have a lot to digest in recent trading, with geopolitics, the new Fed Chair nomination, earnings season, tech selloffs, and growing fears that AI-driven productivity gains could translate into fewer jobs.This dynamic sat at the core of yesterday’s volatility. Equity indices moved in a one-way slide, cryptocurrencies crumbled, and even metals stumbled as a global deleveraging of Debasement Trades unfolded.Two underdogs decided to make their comebacks: the US dollar and US Treasuries, both of which had recently been sidelined as capital chased the shine of precious metals.Since the Trump-Dollar episode — when comments praising a “great” value of the dollar amid the post-Greenland mini-crisis helped push the greenback to four-year lows — the dollar has staged a strong rebound against most FX peers. zoom_out_map US Dollar Performance against other FX Majors since Warsh's appointment – Source: TradingView But yesterday’s rally may now be facing a test.After labor data improved following October’s scare, markets grew more comfortable with the idea that US employment conditions were stabilizing, if not rebounding, as jobless claims trended lower through December and January.This week, however, brought fresh warning signs.Initial claims surprised to the upside, JOLTS pointed to a sharply tighter job-openings market, and the Challenger layoffs report revived uneasy comparisons with 2009.Risk-off flows and broad deleveraging fueled a bid in the dollar, but traders are now bracing for a softer Non-Farm Payrolls report.A few basis points of rate cuts have already been repriced, with clarity expected on Wednesday when the delayed NFP is finally released.All of this could point to a daily top in the Dollar Index.We’ll dive into an in-depth technical analysis of DXY to assess whether — absent any fresh geopolitical shock, with US-Iran talks still ongoing — the dollar is set to keep falling, or if Kevin Warsh’s nomination has genuinely altered the broader trend. Discover:Bitcoin tumbles to $63,000 amid global Tech selloff – BTC/USD OutlookPrecious metals after the correction: stabilisation, not a new rallyMetals are turning bearish – Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) OutlookDollar Index (DXY) Multi-Timeframe AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart. February 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dollar really embarked into quite a reversal after the FOMC (as was highlighted in our previous analysis) but is now facing the test of the key 98.00 Level.Despite all the talks of dedollarization and such, the USD has maintained a volatile but rangebound picture since July 2025 between 96.00 and 100.00.Some new lows were attained against some major pairs like AUD/USD or even EUR/USD, but the dollar selloff has been much more local and contained since.Despite the larger directionless trend, in-range analysis helps to guide decision making and relative strength to know.When prices stall at the middle of a range, it implies that the trend could be shifting.As seen with the Daily RSI taking a turn at the neutral line, and bulls not able to breach the 98.00 Mid-range level, weakness could be expected ahead.Let's take a closer look.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart. February 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView Looking closer, we spot how resilient the 98.00 resistance will prove for the current rebound, particularly as early indications of a bear channel formation are showing up.(Keep in mind that a swift sweep to the upside on any Iran turmoil could change the picture and would need further analysis).An intermediate range could also be shaping up between 97.00 to 98.00, levels which acted as magnets throughout the past 6-months – Reactions to the 4H 50-period moving average (97.017) will be very important.On the session, USD shorts against FX majors could make sense until the 97.00 handle. Pre-weekend risk could warrant position closure.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels98.00 Key Mid-Range Resistance (test, mini-range highs)Session Highs 97.993Mini-resistance 98.80 to 99.0099.40 to 99.50 January Resistance100.376 November highsSupport LevelsAugust and mini-range Pivot 97.25 to 97.602025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00 (mini-range lows, 4H 50-MA)Early 2022 Consolidation just below 96.00Trump USD Flash Crash 95.5595.00 Main psychologic support1H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart. February 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView Looking at reactions, the US Dollar is getting rejected from reaching the resistance zone. However, oversold RSI conditions could point to an imminent retest of its 1H 50-period MA (97.76) before potentially correcting.If prices get there, the 97.00 level will be very essential for the times to come:Rebounding there would take out the potential bear channel (seen on the 4H timeframe)Breaking the level hints at a retest of the Trump-USD Lows (95.55)Any sudden flash above 98.00 (candle close above and high volume) hints at geopolitical tensions worsening.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Benchmarks now all drag lower after the past few sessions of divergenceWith recent tech sector outflows, risk-assets are taking a hitExploring High Timeframe Technical Levels for the Dow Jones and Nasdaq. Risk assets are not enjoying their 2026 resolutions.Kevin Warsh’s impact on markets remains unclear, but the immediate price action since his nomination has been far from reassuring. For clarity, he will only officially become the next Fed Chair after Senate confirmation.Equity indexes had already been flashing warning signs, with a persistent and sharp divergence between heavy outflows from Tech and Semiconductors — despite record earnings — and inflows into more defensive sectors. zoom_out_map Per sector performance in Stocks – February 5, 2026. Source: TradingView What stood out in today’s session is that even dovish data failed to lift sentiment (compared to how Markets reacted to them in 2025). This morning’s releases showed a sharp drop in job openings (JOLTS at 6.542M vs 7.2M expected), while layoffs surged at the highest pace for January since 2009, according to the latest Challenger report. Markets will get more clarity next week with the delayed Non-Farm Payrolls release (Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.), but until then, uncertainty dominates. zoom_out_map Challenger Job Cuts – January 2026 report – Source: Challenger, Grey and Christmas What appears to be weighing most on markets is a broad deleveraging from extreme Debasement Trades that became heavily one-sided throughout 2025. Bitcoin is now trading below $70,000 (more on this later today), and Metals are also under pressure.As profits are taken and stop-losses are triggered, price moves can become exaggerated. Looking at current flows and higher-timeframe charts, this selloff still looks like a profit-taking phase — suggesting there may be more to come. In that aspect, let's dive into a Higher timeframe analysis and key trading levels for the major US indices: the Dow Jones and Nasdaq. Read More:Metals are turning bearish – Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) OutlookMarkets Today: German factory orders surge, silver slumps, NFP release delayed as BoE & ECB Meeting lie aheadWTI in focus with US-Iran talks cancelled – US Oil Outlook zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:47 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – February 5, 2026 The picture is not a good looking one. Selloffs are widespread across the board and aren't solely focused on Tech.Some names including Broadcom, Meta and Costco are holding resilient but not seemingly helping the broad sentiment.Dow Jones Weekly Chart and High Timeframe Trading Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) Weekly Chart – February 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow is actually not showing signs of weakness on its higher timeframe charts despite the current rough session – Keep a close look to see if the 48,600 to 49,700 intraday range holds.Still evolving in a major upward channel since June 2025, the 48,000 Weekly pivot has been acting as key support in the ongoing consolidation.Consolidating at relative highs is not considered a sign of weakness, nevertheless, a bullish push towards 50,000 might be required to avoid profit-taking from breaking the lower bound of the Channel.Any break of this major level could face a quick test of the 45,000 which is the next main support.Dow Jones Higher timeframe technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsSession highs 49,614High timeframe 49,000 to 50,000 resistanceAll-time Highs 49,710 (CFD) – Index ATH is at 49,653Potential resistance at 51,000Support Levels48,840 session lows48,000 short-timeframe Support, High timeframe PivotIntraday Support 48,600 to 48,70045,000 Main psychological Support42,600 to 42,800 Main Support ZoneNasdaq Weekly Chart and High Timeframe Trading Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) Weekly Chart – February 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is looking much less resilient compared to its older brother.A volatile range is holding the action between 24,000 and 26,000 but the failure to retake new all-time highs after last week's rebound point to further downside.The 24,500 to 25,000 pivot acts as a Major momentum guide, hence closing below on the week may trigger further profit-taking cascade. This would go along with the high-paced outflows happening in Tech.If nothing too extreme develops, an interesting dip-buying opportunity could emerge at the 50-week Moving average (23,000). Failing to rebound from there can easily open the door to 20,000 in the Nasdaq – For now this remains far, but the shorter timeframe price action isn't looking so bright either.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-Time High resistance 26,000 to 26,330Momentum Weekly Pivot from 24,500 to 25,000 (testing)26,246 FOMC highsPotential resistance on a breakout at 27,220Support LevelsRange lows and Minor Support 24,00023,000 Major July Support22,000 to 22,229 (early 2025 ATH) Key Support Zone20,000 May Bounce Support Safe Trades and keep an eye on headlines in the Middle East!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Silver, Gold and the entire metals Market is melting from the past week of actionNow reaching key levels, precious metals will be under scrutiny for upcoming tradingHigh timeframe analysis for XAG/USD, XAU/USD and XCU/USD (Copper) Metals were subject to quite a bounce after a disastrous end-of-week close and open.But for those who were looking to join the trend on dip-buying and thinking it would be that easy, Markets can offer painful lessons.One thing that stood out over the past few years of trading, looking at the Stock Market, Crypto, or more, is that overbought and oversold mean nothing.If prices are bid every day, it means participants are not willing to give up their share of the cake.If prices pull back, however, some are doubting the trend; more participants are allowed to enter, which reduces the "exclusivity" component of the frenzy, not to mention CTAs and Hedge Funds taking positions on such signals.The rally in Gold and Silver had been undefeated since August.Even before this, the May to July ($3,000 to $3,500) consolidation in the Bullion never really offered a retracement, but really just kept a sideways picture. zoom_out_map Metals performance in 2026 – Source: TradingView, February 5, 2026. Retracing is a sign of impending weakness; consolidation, of strength.As metals retraced between 10% to 20% from their extreme rallies last Friday on the Kevin Warsh announcement, doubts are emerging, and participants are now finding new reasons to mean-revert.The latest news is that China's gold consumption fell yet again, and there are always more reasons to explain recent moves.The reality is that stops are kicking and that trading metals won't be so easy anymore. Geopolitics and Central bank compromises are still supporting factors, but at what price?That's what the Market is testing right now.In the meantime, we will dive into a Daily timeframe analysis for Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD), and Copper (XCU/USD) to spot where the pullback could stall for dip-buying. Read More:Markets Today: German factory orders surge, silver slumps, NFP release delayed as BoE & ECB Meeting lie aheadWTI in focus with US-Iran talks cancelled – US Oil OutlookAmazon (AMZN) Earnings: The $700 billion milestone and the AI crossroadsGold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart and levels zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, February 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView When the price action gets volatile, it's essential to keep track of technicals!Gold bears took control of the price action after yesterday's failure to close above $5,000.The current session's bear candle hints at a return within the Main 2025 bull channel;A close below $4,900 adds a bigger chance of a retest of the $4,395 Monday lows, with bearish forces entering at the channel highs.Failing to rebound here will next test the Main Support between $3,800 to $4,000.Any bounce back above $5,100 would be followed by a quick retest of the $5,600 All-Time highs.Note: Any escalation between the US and Iran can quickly change the picture and lead to a quick test of recent highs.Betting on geopolitical events is a rough thing to do in Market, hence in that perspective buy stops (above key resistance) would be the best way to express such a view.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):Resistance Levels:$5,000 to $5,100 Major Psychological Pivot (acting as key Resistance)$5,024 session highsCurrent All-time Highs – $5,500 to $5,600Key Fibonacci Projection $5,800 to $5,900$5,400 mini-resistanceSupport Levels:December Record $4,548Pivotal Support $4,400 to $4,500 – Bullish above, Bearish belowMain Support $3,880 to $4,050$3,200 to $3,500 Major SupportSilver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart and levels zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart, February 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView It is crazy to see that the recent highs in Silver from just one week ago are 62% higher!Parabolic trends can provide quite some pain when they cease. Now reaching its key $70 to $72 Support, Silver stands at a significant test:Any rebound from here hints at a rangebound action from $70 to $90Keep a very close eye on the 50-Day MA ($77) for short-term momentum guides.Close below $70 would on the other hand trigger a further selloff. The next test is at the $60 minor supportPreferable entries for Silver would span between $50 to the $55 Major Support.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):Resistance Levels:Higher Timeframe Resistance $89 to $922025 Record Major Pivot $80 to $84Key psychological resistance $100 to $104Current Record $121.67Support Levels:Major 2026 Support $70 to $72 (testing)December FOMC Minor Support $58.00 to $60$53.50 to $54 October Resistance now Major SupportCopper (XCU/USD) Daily Chart and levels zoom_out_map Copper (XCU/USD) Daily Chart, February 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView Copper is also facing a major test, with prices reaching the lower bound of its September upward channel and Pivotal support lows ($5.70).Breaching below the channel hints at a larger retracement in the commodity, with a first potential stop at the $5.40 to $5.50 Minor Support, which would test the weekly open lows.Any further retracement would see the most optimal entries for Copper at the Major Monthly Support between $4.90 to $5.00.The 200-Day Moving Average ($5.02) also hangs around there as a technical support.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Copper (XCU/USD):Resistance Levels:$6.00 to $6.10 Early Jan 2026 RecordCurrent ATH Resistance $6.40 to $6.50$6.52 Current RecordPotential Resistance $6.90 to $7.00Support Levels:Pivotal Support $5.70 to $5.90 – Bullish above, Bearish Below (testing)Monday lows $5.52Minor Support at March 2025 Highs $5.40 to $5.50200-Day MA $5.02Major Monthly Support between $4.90 to $5.00With positioning now far from extremes, fast bounces could happen on geopolitical turmoil, so it could be wise to stay close to the headline. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil rallies to $65 from the latest new: Iran-US talks cancelledWTI lost some ground after talks were announced but tensions are coming backExploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity WTI Oil is facing renewed volatility following the latest geopolitical developments: US–Iran talks scheduled for Friday in Turkey have been cancelled.Disagreements had emerged between Iranian and US demands. Washington continued to insist on Iran abandoning its ballistic missile program, while Tehran only signaled openness on the nuclear issue.Markets had initially rallied on the prospect of talks, while oil shed much of its geopolitical premium after the weekend break, gapping lower from $66.00 to $61.50. But in the current environment, it was unlikely to remain that simple for long.Iranian officials have reiterated that they remain open to discussions, yet the US now appears to be weighing its options, including preparations for potential intervention.The core debate centers on whether an intervention could realistically lead to regime change and how escalation might be avoided to prevent a prolonged conflict. For more context on US–Iran tensions, see our past week edition.Since the cancellation headline, WTI has jumped back toward $65 and is holding near its relative highs as traders brace for a possible worsening of the conflict. zoom_out_map Odds for a US strike in Iran – Source: Polymarket. February 4, 2026 Polymarket-based odds for a strike before February 28 are just below 30%. Let's dive into a bottom-up multi-timeframe analysis of WTI (US) Oil to determine whether technicals point to continued upside or if we are reaching a maximum.We will commence with intraday charts to explore the latest action and see how it develops to Daily charts. Read More:Rebalancing continues as Tech dives – Dow Jones & US Index OutlookAmazon (AMZN) Earnings: The $700 billion milestone and the AI crossroadsResilient traders in uncertain times – North American Mid-Week Market updateUS Oil Bottom-Up Multi-Timeframe Analysis1H Chart zoom_out_map WTI Oil 1H Chart – February 4, 2026. Source: TradingView Oil just bounced higher by 3% on the headlines but got rejected right in the middle of its $65 to $66 Key resistance.Despite the rejection, bears aren't for now able to bring back the commodity to the pre-headline levels so the current pullback just looks like profit-taking.Some warning signs are arising however with the formation of an inverted Head & Shoulders pattern which could hint to $70 in WTI (see more on the 4H chart just below)As long as the tensions don't aggravate, expect a $63 to $66 range. Any close above $66 will be accompanied with some war headlines (particularly if the past week's $66.56 highs break).WTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map WTI Oil 4H Chart – February 4, 2026. Source: TradingView It is difficult to discern momentum in Oil when up and down spikes are so common.Two things are clear from that timeframe:WTI bulls are following closely the 4H 50-period MA to push prices higherThe action is holding within an upward channel, but any news could lead to an upside breakoutThe measured move target from the inverted Head & shoulders is shown in purple.WTI Technical LevelsLevels to place on your WTI charts:Resistance LevelsPast week Spike $66.56Minor Resistance $65 to $66 (daily highs $65.55)September 2025 Major resistance $67 (could get breached if US attacks)Psychological Resistance $70 and Inverted H&S target$78.43 12-Day War highsSupport Levels$64.00 Key psychological support$63.00 4H-50 MAMay 2025 range Key Pivot $62.30 to $63.43May Range lows support $59 to $60.5 Major supportIran Premium Support area $58.50 to $59WTI Daily Chart zoom_out_map WTI Oil Daily Chart – February 4, 2026. Source: TradingView Now trading well above its 200-Day Moving Average, Oil is turning increasingly bullish.Fundamental factors over greener energy are still weighing on the long-run trajectory for the commodity, but geopolitical factors say otherwise.Trader are pushing the commodity towards the 50% retracement of the 12-Day War from June 2025.Any close above $66.60 would look at high-paced continuation. This would of course be contingent on tensions remaining elevated. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Benchmarks maintain strong divergence with the Dow Leading while Nasdaq fallsTech sector is being rejected from high valuations and AI repricingExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 The age of passive investing is now long gone.Tech investors who had the easy job of buying and waiting to generate enormous returns are now under heavy scrutiny as a new age commences.As expressed in this excellent piece, AI is now reaching the stage of creative destruction.As the AI Bull trend began, almost everything remotely linked to Tech and Semiconductors was getting lifted in a hurry. Still, the funnel is reducing back towards the real winners and losers of the Revolution – And there will be many.The Tech sector remained pushed by the new era of internet dominance across purchasing behaviors and new ways to interact between buyers and sellers – look at Airbnb and Uber, for example.For example, individuals now use AI for a wide range of uses, including research, coding, writing emails, and more.So logically, many of the Tech firms that specialize in these areas will now be useless middlemen.So what are investors turning to? Value.AI won't replace potato fields (at least for now) or replace chemists, machine producers, etc.Surely, it will assist and improve the efficiency of these traditional processes, but it definitely won't replace the firms that provide what humanity needs to live.In that regard, Farming, Healthcare, Consumer Defensives, Homes & Building, Railroads, etc., are seeing some new inflows, which are translating into the Dow Jones' outperformance against the Nasdaq. zoom_out_map Dow Jones to Nasdaq Relative Strength – Source: TradingView. February 4, 2026 The Dow Jones to Nasdaq ratio, mentioned in our previous day Stock Market analysis actually just broke back above the key 2.00 level – Watch for the development of a new trend for Stocks here.Let’s dive into today’s session charts and key trading levels for the major US indices: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 as profit-taking flows could confirm the broader range. Read More:Resilient traders in uncertain times – North American Mid-Week Market updateChart alert: Alphabet (GOOGL) medium-term uptrend at risk of bearish reversal below $353.60/367.16The Euro's double-edged moment: ECB set to hold rates despite strength and growth drag zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (12:03 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – February 4, 2026 Even with some of the Mag 7s rebounding, the overall Tech sector (which represents a large part of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq) is in the red while almost everything else is up.Google's earnings after the close will surely impact these flows but the rest is too see how much it does.Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – February 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView The divergence is now quite visual with the Dow Jones testing its all-time highs while Nasdaq trends lower (see below).Still, a couple of technical warnings are arising.The short-term price action is forming a bearish RSI divergence and coupling this with the inability to decisively break the 49,650 Resistance area, the outlook isn't immediately bullish.The picture remains rangebound, as confirmed by the flat 200-period 2H MA.A decisive break and close above 50,000 would cement the bull case for the DJIA.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsATH Resistance From 49,600 to 49,700Tuesday Highs 49,681All-time Highs 49,710 (CFD) – Index ATH is at 49,65350,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport LevelsIntraday Pivot 49,200 to 49,350Pivotal Support – 49,000 to 49,100 (Bull above, Bearish below)Intraday Support 48,600 to 48,700Key Support around 47,50045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – February 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView Having broken its Greenland-Crisis lows, the picture looks very different compared to the Dow Jones and now looking decisively bearish.A measured move to the downside (purple square) is developing, hinting at the current selloff stalling at around 24,600.Depending on Alphabet earnings, the index could see some dip-buying around here but Bulls will have to push back above 25,100 to help with the bearish prospects.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMinor Support now Pivot 25,000 to 25,250Mid-range Pivot 25,200 to 25,500 +/- 75 ptsPivotal Resistance 25,700 to 25,85026,246 FOMC highsAll-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Support LevelsMeasured Move target ~24,60024,500 to 25,600 Key SupportOctober - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – February 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView The outlook for the S&P 500 isn't much brighter than its Higher-Beta tech peer.Another measured move to the downside is forming in the Spoose and hinting at a test of the 6,810 level.Any break below will give a pretty nasty look on the bigger picture.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsKey Pivot Zone 6,880 to 6,900Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Session highs 6,950Current ATH 7,020All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020Support LevelsMini-Support 6,830 to 6,8506,810 measured move target6,800 Psychological Support6,789 Greenland lows6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep an eye on headlines!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Analysts expect a record-breaking Q4 2025, with revenue projected to hit approximately $211.3B and EPS at $1.97, driving Amazon to surpass $700 billion in annual revenue for the first timeThe primary weight on the stock is the "Stifling" capital expenditure trajectoryAmazon Web Services (AWS) remains the crown jewel (expected to reach ~$35B, 21-22% growth) and investors are looking for evidence of continued reaccelerationThe stock's immediate future rests on the "AI narrative"Most Read: The Euro's double-edged moment: ECB set to hold rates despite strength and growth dragAs Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) prepares to report its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on Thursday, February 5, 2026, Wall Street is bracing for a potential milestone: the retail and cloud giant is expected to surpass $700 billion in annual revenue for the first time in its history.However, while the top-line numbers look robust, the stock's recent "flat" performance compared to the broader S&P 500 suggests that investors are demanding more than just growth they want clarity on the costs of the AI arms race.The numbers to watch The consensus among analysts points to a record-breaking holiday quarter driven by strong consumer demand and a reacceleration in cloud services:Revenue: Expected to hit $211.3 billion to $211.6 billion, representing roughly 13% year-over-year growth. This aligns with Amazon's own guidance of $206 billion to $213 billion.Earnings Per Share (EPS): Consensus estimates sit at $1.97 to $1.98, a modest 6% increase from the $1.86 reported in Q4 2024.AWS Revenue: Expected to reach approximately $35 billion, a 21-22% increase year-over-year.Key areas of focus for market participants AWS and the AI Efficiency Narrative Amazon Web Services (AWS) remains the crown jewel, contributing nearly 20% of total revenue but a far higher percentage of operating profit. After a period of slowing growth in 2023, AWS has reaccelerated, hitting 20% growth in Q3 2025. Investors will be looking for a continuation of this trend, specifically focusing on how quickly Amazon can convert its $200 billion backlog into realized revenue.A critical sub-plot is the adoption of Amazon’s in-house AI chips, Trainium and Inferentia. As Amazon seeks to reduce its dependency on Nvidia and improve margins, evidence of broader customer adoption beyond Anthropic (which recently scaled to nearly 500,000 Trainium chips) will be a significant bullish signal.The "Stifling" Capex Trajectory The primary weight on Amazon's stock price recently has been the massive capital expenditure required to build out AI data centers. Amazon raised its 2025 capex guidance to $125 billion, and management has already signaled that spending will increase further in 2026 with some estimates exceeding $150 billion.Investors are concerned that this "Capex explosion" is squeezing free cash flow. Any commentary during the earnings call that suggests a "peak" in the investment cycle or a clear path to improved cash generation could spark a major rally. Conversely, if 2026 spending guidance exceeds current fears without a corresponding jump in revenue outlook, the stock could face pressure.Retail Resilience and Advertising Growth The fourth quarter includes the critical Prime Big Deal Days and the traditional holiday shopping season. Despite intense competition from discount platforms like Temu and Shein, Amazon’s logistics "regionalization" strategy has kept costs down and delivery speeds up.Furthermore, Advertising continues to be a high-margin powerhouse. After growing 24% to $17.7 billion in Q3, analysts expect the advertising segment to benefit from a "seasonal spike" in Q4, potentially outperforming the core retail business and helping to pad overall operating margins.Workforce Efficiency Following the recent announcement of 16,000 job cuts—the largest in the company’s history investors will be looking for evidence that "leaner" operations are translating to the bottom line. CEO Andy Jassy’s focus on "cost to serve" in the fulfillment network will be under the microscope.Potential stock price implications Options market pricing suggests traders are preparing for a significant move of approximately 7% in either direction following the announcement.The Bull Case: If Amazon delivers a "double beat" (Revenue and EPS) and provides optimistic 2026 guidance, specifically indicating that AI investments are yielding high-margin returns the stock could break out of its recent consolidation wedge and target its previous highs near $255–$260.The Bear Case: If AWS growth shows signs of plateauing due to capacity constraints, or if the 2026 Capex forecast is viewed as "excessive" relative to cash flow, the stock could retreat toward support levels near $222–$230The stock has been trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern since reaching a record high of $258 in November 2025. This pattern typically indicates a period of consolidation followed by a significant breakout.Amazon Daily Chart, February 5, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Roadmap for 2026: What management must communicate For the February 5 earnings call to be a success, CEO Andy Jassy and CFO Brian Olsavsky must provide clarity on several key performance indicators:AWS Revenue Floor: A commitment to maintaining at least 20% growth throughout 2026.Capex ROI Metrics: Evidence that the $125 billion spent in 2025 is already contributing to operating income, particularly through custom silicon adoption.Advertising Integration: Plans for expanding ad formats beyond Prime Video, possibly into voice search (Alexa) and physical store digital signage.FCF Guidance: A timeline for when free cash flow will return to its 2024 levels, providing reassurance that the company will not need to rely indefinitely on debt markets.Conclusion Amazon enters this earnings release as a "tweener", a company caught between its legacy as an e-commerce giant and its future as an AI infrastructure powerhouse. While the holiday retail numbers will provide the foundation, the stock's immediate future likely rests on the "AI narrative": specifically, whether the massive billions being poured into data centers are starting to pay off for the bottom line.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to hold key interest rates steadyJanuary's inflation hitting the 2% target supports this "wait-and-see" approach, with the focus now on "how long" rates will remain at this levelThe Euro's recent strength helps suppress imported inflation but creates a "Growth Drag" that threatens Eurozone exportsMarket participants will closely watch President Lagarde's press conference for clues on future policyMost Read: Alphabet (GOOGL) Q4 Earnings Preview: Can AI and cloud momentum sustain the $4 trillion valuation?As the European Central Bank (ECB) prepares for its first major meeting of 2026 on February 5, the Governing Council finds itself in a delicate balancing act. After a series of rate cuts in late 2024 and 2025 that brought the deposit facility rate down to 2.00%, the central bank now faces a "neutral" landscape where the next move is far from certain.The Decision: Steady hands amidst stability Market consensus is overwhelmingly in favor of a hold. The ECB is expected to maintain its key interest rates, the Deposit Facility at 2.00%, the Main Refinancing Operations at 2.15%, and the Marginal Lending Facility at 2.40%. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG This "wait-and-see" approach is bolstered by January’s inflation data, which landed right on the ECB's 2% target. While some economists suggest that headline inflation could actually dip as low as 1.7% in the coming weeks, the Governing Council appears content to let the current restrictive-to-neutral policy simmer. Following the "plateau" narrative that emerged in late 2025, the February meeting is less about the immediate decision and more about the "policy signals" for the rest of the year.The Euro’s "Moment": Strength vs. Competitiveness The euro enters February 2026 in a position of renewed strength but this has introduced a new layer of complexity to the ECB’s deliberations. In early 2026, the euro broke above the 1.19 mark against the US dollar, briefly testing the psychological resistance level of 1.20.However, this Euro strength is a double-edged sword for Frankfurt.The Deflationary Hedge: A stronger euro helps suppress imported inflation—particularly energy and raw materials priced in dollars. This gives President Christine Lagarde more breathing room to keep rates steady even if global commodity prices fluctuate.The Growth Drag: The "global euro moment" also brings risks. A potent currency threatens the competitiveness of Eurozone exports, particularly for the German industrial sector, which is already struggling with a modest 2026 growth forecast of 0.8% to 1.2%. If the euro’s appreciation becomes too aggressive, it could "import deflation" to the point of undershooting the 2% target, potentially forcing the ECB to resume rate cuts earlier than the "hold through 2026" crowd expects.Market Outlook: Looking beyond the decision Market participants are looking past the February announcement to the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and the subsequent March projections. Currently, swap markets are pricing in very little movement for the remainder of 2026, signaling that the "rate cut cycle" that defined 2025 has likely reached its conclusion.However, the tone of the press conference will be vital. Any emphasis on "downside risks to growth" or concerns regarding the "undershooting of inflation" will be interpreted as a dovish tilt. Conversely, if Lagarde maintains that service-sector inflation remains sticky, the Euro could see further gains as traders price out any remaining hopes for a mid-year cut.President Lagarde’s press conference will be closely watched for clues on balancing inflation, growth, and market risks. zoom_out_map Source: For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Implications for the Currency For the Euro, the February meeting is likely to consolidate its recent gains unless the ECB explicitly expresses discomfort with the currency's level. With the US Federal Reserve also reaching a potential pause in its own cycle, the EUR/USD pair is finding a new equilibrium.The primary takeaway for February 2026 is that the ECB has successfully navigated the "soft landing." The focus has shifted from "how high" or "how low" to "how long", how long will rates stay at 2% before the next economic shift dictates a new direction.For now, stability is the name of the game in Frankfurt.Technical Analysis - EUR/USD From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD has seen a significant pullback since the January 27 high at 1.2082.The pullback is just over 50% of the initial upside move which started at the 1.1572 handle on January 19.Heading into the meeting, EUR/USD rests at a key area of support which was the swing high in December 2025 around the 1.1794.If this level holds, then a run back toward the psychological 1.2000 handle may be on the cards.The period 14-RSI bodes well, having bounced off the neutral 50 level which hints at bullish momentum remaining in play.A break lower from here may bring the 100-day MA back into focus around the 1.1678 handle.EUR/USD Daily Chart, February 4, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Strong fundamentals, but timing risk rising: Alphabet heads into Q4 earnings with solid expectations (15.4% YoY revenue growth) and has outperformed the S&P 500 YTD, yet price momentum is showing signs of exhaustion despite strong AI and cloud-driven fundamentals.Medium-term uptrend at an inflection point: The uptrend from April 2025 is at risk of a bearish reversal if prices fail below the 353.50–367.16 resistance zone and break under 321.50 (50-DMA), opening the door to a multi-week correction toward 296.12 and potentially 270.70.Technical warnings are stacking up: A “Dark Cloud Cover” reversal pattern, bearish RSI divergence at overbought levels, and weakening volatility-adjusted relative strength versus the S&P 500 all point to fading upside momentum and elevated downside risk. Alphabet Inc, the parent company of Google, will report its Q4 earnings results after the close of today’s US session (Wednesday, 4 February).Sell-side analysts expect Alphabet’s Q4 revenue to hit $111.4 billion, a 15.4% year-on-year increase, with adjusted earnings per share projected at $2,64, following a revenue beat in Q3.Read more: Alphabet (GOOGL) Q4 Earnings Preview: Can AI and cloud momentum sustain the $4 trillion valuation?Can Alphabet continue to outperform the S&P 500 & the rest of Mag 7? zoom_out_map Fig. 1: YTD performance of Magnificent 7 & US stock indices as of 3 Feb 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) So far, Alphabet's share price has outperformed the major US stock indices and ranked in the top of the Magnificent 7 group, with a year-to-date gain of 8.5% as of 3 February 2026, surpassing the S&P 500 (+1.1%) and the Nasdaq 100 (+0.4%) (see Fig. 1).However, Alphabet's momentum conditions are now flashing warning signs that suggest the ongoing medium-term uptrend phase in place since the 7 April 2025 low of 140.53 may be over, and it may undergo a multi-week corrective decline sequence next.Let's look at the technical chart of AlphabetMedium-term trend (1 to 3 weeks): Uptrend is likely exhausted, bearish reversal next zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Alphabet (GOOGL) medium-term trend as of 3 Feb 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) The current medium-term trend phase of Alphabet from 7 April 2025 is likely to have reached an inflection zone that may trigger a bearish reversal scenario.Watch the 353.50/367.16 key medium-term pivotal resistance. A break with a daily close below 321.50 (also the 50-day moving average) increases the odds of a multi-week corrective decline sequence unfolding towards the next medium-term supports of 296.12 (also the 23.6% retracement of the up move from 7 April 2025 low to 3 February 2026 high), and 270.70 (also the 38.2% retracement of the up move from 7 April 2025 low to 3 February 2026 high) (see Fig. 2.)On the other hand, a clearance with a daily close above 367.16 invalidates the bearish reversal scenario for a continuation of the bullish impulsive sequence towards the next medium-term resistances at 389.10 and 411.06/424.63.Key elements to support the medium-term bearish bias The combination of Alphabet’s price actions seen on Monday, 2 February, and Tuesday, 3 February has formed a bearish reversal candlestick pattern called “Dark Cloud Cover”.The daily RSI momentum indicator flashed out a bearish divergence condition at its overbought region on Tuesday, 3 February, which reinforces the potential bearish reversal scenario.The volatility-adjusted relative strength (VARS) of Alphabet against the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund (SPY) has started to turn down (shaped a “lower high”) above zero and traded below its 50-day moving average. These observations suggest the relative strength of Alphabet against the S&P 500 is losing momentum.Read more on VARS: How to prevent the high-beta trap and find the relevant stocks Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets see wild volatility since today's mid-session bellGeopolitical events and global deleveraging are turning strong trends into high-paced dropsExploring reactions across Markets to monitor what is moving the most Markets are getting shaky after the latest headlines – US-Iran tensions are mounting, and this is not boding well with Risk-Sentiment.It has been reported that an Iranian drone approaching the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea has been downed by US forces, leading to fresh Risk-off flows.Talks are still expected to take place on Friday. zoom_out_map US-Iran morning escalation – Source: X, Open Source Intel Despite a US Government deal having been reached (ending the Shutdown), the mood remains grim, and pointing the pessimistic sentiment weighing more.The headline was behind the move lower across risk assets this morning. Still, it seems that more anxiety is increasing as it collides with global deleveraging and valuation doubts across Asset classes. This also correlates with this morning's rise in Metals. Read More:Major rotation flows and drops – Dow Jones and US Index OutlookSilver (XAG/USD) Outlook: Selloff takes a break, but it is over?RBA breaks two-year pause with hawkish rate hike, AUD/USD poised for further gainsStocks continue to head lower zoom_out_map Dow Jones 30M Chart – Source: TradingView. February 3, 2026 zoom_out_map Current Market picture – Courtesy of Finviz. February 3, 2026 As you can see, the current deleveraging is particularly strong in Nasdaq, which was down 2.86% at its lows until recently.Tech/AI stocks are getting rejected harshly as they stand at the extreme of the risk-spectrum and get sold off first when sentiment worsens.Bitcoin breaks $75,000 but attempts a comeback zoom_out_map Bitcoin 4H Chart – Source: TradingView. February 3, 2026 Negative sentiment in Crypto actually took Bitcoin below its pre-election Trump levels.The rest of the Altcoin Market isn't doing much better – Solana just broke the $100 level!Explore our latest crypto analysis right here!Oil spikes higher but rejects higher levels zoom_out_map WTI (US) Oil 1H Chart – Source: TradingView. February 3, 2026 One unusual element in this risk-off move is that US Treasuries haven't shown any reactions – If something serious happens in Iran, expect major reactions in Bonds.Note: I had been warning of impending volatility for a while in recent articles and was surprised to see such resilience despite the headlines and moves.It could just be the beginning of a scary story, but as always, if Stock Indexes keep running to all-time highs or even remaining within 10% from them, it could be better to look away from fear to trade with more objectivity.A closing at the lows of today's session in Equities and Cryptos hints at further chances of a more widespread panic as Participants get ready for more unpredictable outcomes in recent Iran escalations – Will talks really occur on Friday?Safe Trades and keep an eye headlines!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The RBA raised the official cash rate by 25 basis points, ending a two-year holding pattern.The move is likely the start of a new tightening cycle, with further hikes expected to combat inflation not returning to target until mid-2028.The hawkish decision caused the AUD/USD pair to surge by over 1%, reclaiming the psychologically significant 0.7000 level. Is the rally sustainable?Most Read: Silver (XAG/USD) Outlook: Selloff takes a break, but it is over?The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) broke a two-year holding pattern by raising the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%. This decision marked the first rate hike since November 2023, signaling a major shift in the RBA’s assessment of the Australian economy as inflation proved more "sticky" than previously anticipated.Reasons for the Hike: A material shift in inflation Governor Michele Bullock cited a "material" pickup in inflation during the second half of 2025 as the primary driver for the move. The RBA outlined four specific reasons for the tightening:Resilient Private Demand: Australians continued to spend and borrow more aggressively than the bank had forecasted. Private demand was described as growing "substantially more than expected."Supply Constraints and Productivity: The economy is operating closer to its supply capacity than previously thought. Weak productivity growth has meant that even modest increases in demand are generating significant price pressures.Easing Financial Conditions: Despite high rates, the RBA noted that financial conditions had actually eased over the summer. Rising home prices, increased lending, and easier access to credit suggested that previous policy settings were not restrictive enough.Global Resilience: The global economy has remained surprisingly robust, which has fed back into domestic price pressures and kept the labor market "a little tight," with unemployment remaining lower than expected.No surprise here really just looking at Australian inflation over the last 12 months which has risen dramatically. The concern for the RBA is that price pressures remain broad-based at this stage and show little sign of retreat. zoom_out_map Source: Tradingeconomics The Outlook: Not a "One-and-Done" The RBA’s updated forecasts suggest that this hike is likely the beginning of a new tightening cycle rather than an isolated adjustment.Inflation Forecasts: The bank revised its trimmed mean inflation forecast upward to 3.7% for mid-2026 (up from 3.2%). Critically, the RBA does not expect inflation to return to the 2.5% target midpoint until mid-2028.Further Hikes: Major financial institutions, including CommBank (CBA) and NAB, are already pricing in at least one more 25bp hike in May 2026, which would take the cash rate to 4.10%.The latest rate probabilities from LSEG shows a 65% probability of a hike in May 2026. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG However when looking at the implied rate through December 2026, LSEG data is showing 49 bps of rate hikes.This leaves the door open for the RBA to potentially hike rates two more times this year, which bodes well for Australian Dollar bulls as the Aussie looks to build on its recent rally, especially against the US Dollar.Implied Rates Through December 2026 zoom_out_map Source: LSEG Growth Trade-off: To combat the "sticky" inflation, the RBA has downgraded its GDP growth outlook to 1.6% starting mid-next year, acknowledging that higher rates will eventually weigh on the broader economy.Technical Analysis - AUD/USD From a technical perspective, AUD/USD had breached the 0.7000 mark prior to the rate decision before a pullback left the pair trading at 0.6950 heading into the decision.The pair has since reclaimed the 0.7000 handle but does face a challenge.There is room for a deeper pullback before the rally to the upside continues and this may depend on the US Dollars performance in the days ahead.A daily candle close above the 0.7000 mark may give bulls hope of further gains however failure to do so could open the door for a deeper pullback.If a deeper pullback does materialize, the 0.6750 handle may be of particular interest as this is where the bullish rally really gained traction around January 21, 2026.Over the longer-term though, the Aussie is poised for further gains. A divergence in monetray policy with the RBA hiking while other central banks look toward cuts is expected to provide continued support for the AUD.Immediate upside resistance is provided by the January highs at 0.7094.AUD/USD Daily Chart, February 3, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (03/02/2026): Join TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart as they discuss the latest market headlines, including a recent trade deal struck between the United States and India, developments in the precious metal markets, and a choice by the BLS to postpone Friday's NFP report. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Benchmarks diverge strongly in this morning's Market actionUS Equity flows turn to traditional sectors after years of Tech outperformanceExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Yesterday’s Manufacturing PMI beat (52.6 vs. 48.5 expected) has brought traditional and defensive sectors back into the spotlight for equity investors. zoom_out_map US Manufacturing PMI since 2022 – Source: TradingEconomics After a volatile January, traders are still searching for the dominant trend heading into 2026.So far, only one theme stands out: global divergence and increasingly concentrated trends.Passive investing is a strategy of the past.For nearly 15 years, buying almost anything — especially technology — was a winning strategy. Tech has outperformed all major indices since the 2000s, a trend reinforced by today’s consumption patterns and the dominance of the Magnificent Seven. zoom_out_map Per Sector Performance since 2026 – Source: TradingView However, with the AI narrative now largely priced in, equities are reacting less to earnings beats and more to longer-term macro and valuation themes.One such development is the resilience of the global economy despite tariffs and recurring trade tensions.In that context, the US continues to beat growth expectations, providing a strong demand backstop.When highly valued areas of the market (AI and Tech) appear fairly priced while growth remains solid, capital naturally rotates toward more resilient, lower-beta sectors. Relative valuation and wealth effects begin to lift previously overlooked parts of the market. zoom_out_map Dow Jones to Nasdaq Relative Strength – Source: TradingView That rotation is exactly what we are seeing today.This does not look like rising risk aversion, but rather a deliberate rebalancing toward defensive and traditional equities — a theme that has been building since October 2025.Let’s dive into today’s session charts and key trading levels for the major US indices: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 as profit-taking flows could confirm the broader range. Read More:Silver (XAG/USD) Outlook: Selloff takes a break, but it is over?Bitcoin breaks $80,000! Altcoins suffer – BTC, ETH and SOL OutlookOil prices down 6% as US-Iran de-escalation hopes cool market heat… Is it the end of the line for bulls? zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:57 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – February 3, 2026 As you can see, sectors the most closely related to tech are struggling, leaving space for the traditionals to outperform (Producer Manufacturing, Consumer Durables, ...)Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – February 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView Despite the very strong action in the morning, watch for the profit-taking at the highs which could maintain the broad rangebound picture (48,400 to 49,700).Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsIntraday Pivot 49,200 to 49,35049,400 morning highsATH Resistance From 49,600 to 49,700All-time Highs 49,71050,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport Levels4H 50-period MA 49,109Pivotal Support – 49,000 to 49,100 (Bull above, Bearish below)Intraday Support 48,600 to 48,700Key Support around 47,50045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – February 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView The picture in Nasdaq is looking quite ugly after failing to reach October all-time highs, suggesting the 24,500 to 25,800 range holds well.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMid-range Pivot 25,200 to 25,500 +/- 75 ptsPivotal Resistance 25,700 to 25,85026,246 FOMC highsAll-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Support LevelsMinor Support 25,000 to 25,250Monday lows 25,08424,500 Main supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – February 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView The range (6,800 to 7,000) is also holding strongly for the S&P 500 – Watch to reactions when prices reach the lower bound.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsPrevious ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH 7,020All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020Support LevelsKey Pivot 6,945 to 6,975Minor-Support 6,880 to 6,900Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,850 (Greenland lows)6,800 Psychological Support6,789 Greenland lows6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep an eye on headlines!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Metals are recovering after historic dropsWill the trend simply resume after the event or is it just the beginning?Exploring Silver (XAG/USD) in-depth to spot where the action stands Traders are still trying to grasp the impact of last Friday’s insane 7-sigma move in the metals market.In hindsight, several forces combined to trigger the tumble.First comes the inevitable gravity problem.When trends turn too parabolic, wings get burned — and when they do, the fall is brutal.Market makers and traders enter a psychological standoff over who will be left holding the hot potato. Between real demand and aggressive short sellers, whoever needs to buy ends up paying whatever price is required.As a result, offers get lifted aggressively, market makers find themselves short, and hedging flows fuel spectacular upside spirals. But once enough supply finally appears, buyers stop paying up. When that happens, prices stop rising — and shortly after, everyone starts wondering why prices were there in the first place. zoom_out_map 7-Sigma events in Markets are rare occurrences What ultimately pushed offers lower was a combination of factors:The end of a very strong seasonal trend for metals in January (when industrials typically place annual orders), exacerbated month-end profit-taking (with the preceding high profits generated), and finally the nomination of Kevin Warsh, which introduced fresh volatility.Discover: The Fed Chair has been picked: Who is Kevin Warsh?The reaction in the US dollar also matters here. The Fed Chair nomination seems to have restored some confidence — at least for now — helping to smooth out the most extreme market moves that were seen in early 2026.Metals have since found temporary footing at key levels.Gold stalled near $4,400, Platinum around $2,000, and Silver — today’s focus — came within a hair of $70 after a 41% drawdown. zoom_out_map Metals Performance since November 2025 – Source: TradingView (Feb 3, 2026) In perspective, the correction merely dragged metals back to early-2026 price levels.Silver is still up a sneaky 80% since November. This isn't nothing!The lesson here is to be extra careful when 10% moves up and down become the norm; something will inevitably break.Metals are still supported by a multitude of fundamental factors, including high government deficits, strong economic demand (and supply bottlenecks) and international turmoil – Don't expect prices to come back to 2025 lows, but prices could still be elevated.Let’s now dive into a multi-timeframe, in-depth analysis of Silver (XAG/USD) to assess where today’s 11% rebound leaves price action — and whether a durable bottom is forming, or if more volatility lies ahead. Read More:Bitcoin breaks $80,000! Altcoins suffer – BTC, ETH and SOL OutlookOil prices down 6% as US-Iran de-escalation hopes cool market heat… Is it the end of the line for bulls?Silver posts worst day on record, crude slips lower & latest from Trump and FedSilver (XAG/USD) Multi-timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart Chart – Source: TradingView (Feb 3, 2026) How significant is that Friday bar!Silver had been evolving in a steep upward channel since November 2025 and has officially broken it to the downside.Still, the extreme move lower saw some dip-buying right around its 50-Day Moving Average (currently at $75.92).Now mean-reverting higher, bulls will face a quintessential test at the $89 to $92 Pivot Area – Failing to breach back above before the end of the week hints at Bull Failure and could lead to more downward action.The RSI is showing a retest of the neutral level – moving back to above helps the rebound case but rejecting here would add further pressure.Any close below the 50-Day MA could easily correct to $60 as not much volume has consolidated prices in between. Let's take a closer look.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart – Source: TradingView (Feb 3, 2026) Prices breached back above the 4H 200-MA but it would be early to say that the rebound it decisive:The RSI is now turning lower, sign of bull exhaustion and could confirm the current pullback being a Dead Cat BounceThe past two 4H Candles have failed to breach $89, a micro-double top.Watch what happens if bears push prices back below the 4H 200-MALevels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):Resistance Levels:Higher Timeframe Pivot $89 to $92 (immediate resistance)Session highs $89.17Channel retest $96.00Key psychological resistance $100 to $104$118 to $120 Current ATH ResistanceSupport Levels:2025 Record Mini-Pivot/Support $80 to $8450-Day MA $75.90Major 2026 Support $70 to $72December FOMC Minor Support $58.00 to $60$53.50 to $54 October Resistance now Major Support1H Chart zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) 1H Chart – Source: TradingView (Feb 3, 2026) Silver is showing signs of uncertainty on shorter timeframe as Buying momentum stalls.And the best thing to do when uncertainty prevails is to make scenarios.Holding the upward trendline would help to reach new session highs (further rise)Rejecting here would test the $84 trendBreaking it offers further correction potential (look at the $71.20 lows)Rebounding from there hints at a more solid rebound (look at $96, Bull Channel retest)Any break below the Monday open lows would point to a test of the $65 Point.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Markets Weekly Outlook - NFP forecast, Fed's new direction, RBA rate hike risk, BoE/ECB pause and big tech earningsOil prices have slipped 6% today in what is a poor start to the month. This comes after an impressive rally in the month of January.WTI finished January with gains of around 14% but that turned sour this morning with a 5% plunge in the Asian session. This sharp reversal appears to be driven by a combination of diplomatic shifts in the Middle East and strategic supply decisions by major producers.The primary drivers behind the drop The most immediate catalyst for the price drop is the sudden cooling of tensions between the United States and Iran. Just a week ago, markets were pricing in a significant risk of military conflict after US President Donald Trump hinted at potential strikes.However, remarks made by the President on Sunday expressing hope for a new deal with Iran with a meeting scheduled for Friday this week which has dramatically pivoted investor sentiment.The prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough suggests a potential easing of sanctions. If an agreement is reached, Iran, a major OPEC member, could legally return significant volumes of crude to the global market.This "peace premium" being removed from the price of oil has led to a rapid sell-off, as traders re calibrate for a more well-supplied market than previously feared.OPEC + maintains the status quo Adding to the downward pressure, OPEC+ concluded its latest meeting with a decision to keep production levels unchanged for March. While the group’s "cautious approach" is intended to maintain market stability, it failed to provide the bullish spark some investors were hoping for. By reaffirming a freeze on planned production increases, OPEC+ signaled that they anticipate seasonally weaker demand in the coming months.Taking a look at US drilling activity, it appears to be in a slump because low prices are making new investments less attractive for energy companies. Recent data from Baker Hughes shows that the number of active oil rigs held steady at 411 last week, which is significantly lower than this time last year.While there was a tiny increase in gas drilling, the overall number of active rigs remains 36 below last year's levels. Because experts expect there to be more oil on the market than people actually need this year (a "surplus"), US oil production growth is expected to stay limited throughout 2026.Forward Outlook - bulls or bears to prevail? The future of oil prices currently hangs on two major variables: the reality of US-Iran diplomacy and the strength of the US dollar.Geopolitical Volatility: While de-escalation is the current theme, financial institutions like DBS and Deutsche Bank warn that the situation remains fragile. Should diplomatic efforts fail or military rhetoric resurface, a renewed rally beyond the $70/barrel mark cannot be ruled out.The "Warsh Effect": The US dollar has been gaining strength following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair. Because oil is priced in dollars, a stronger greenback makes the commodity more expensive for international buyers, creating a natural headwind for price growth.In the short term, markets are looking toward upcoming US inventory data from the API and EIA to gauge domestic demand.While the current trend is bearish, the structural risks in the Middle East suggest that the "pause" in the oil rally may be temporary rather than a permanent reversal.For now, investors are moving with caution, balancing the hope of a diplomatic solution against the ever-present threat of supply disruptions. Keep an eye on developments between Iran-US when they meet on Friday in Turkey.Technical Analysis - WTI From a technical analysis standpoint, WTI drop is flirting with a close below the 200-day MA.This would not be the first time that WTI has broken above the 200-day MA and reversed the move in a few days.The last time WTI traded above the 200-day MA was in July 2025 when the price only managed to hold above the 200-day MA for two days before slipping back below for a prolonged period.All is not lost for bulls though as the 100-day MA may provide the support that bulls are looking for as it rests on the psychological 60.00 handle, making this area a key confluence zone.The period-14 RSI is just shy of the neutral 50 level and if it holds above this is a positive signs for bulls as it is seen as a sign of bullish momentum.WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart, February 2, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Key levels to keep an eye onSupport:60.0058.5057.00Resistance:62.3264.7366.15Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (02/02/2026): As we welcome in another week of trading, we join Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast Jonny Hart for the latest market news and analysis. In today’s episode, we discuss a meltdown in the price of precious metals, falling crude prices, and the latest from President Trump and the Federal Reserve. Join Senior Market Analyst for Asia Pacific Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Markets find a basis to rebound after past end-of-week high volatilityUS Indexes attempt another test of their record highs as positive data lifts sentimentExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Markets are digesting the Friday announcement of Powell's replacement as the next Fed Chair, taking effect in May 2026. In case you missed it, Kevin Warsh will take his spot.Discover: The Fed Chair has been picked: Who is Kevin Warsh?The announcement brought a wave of high volatility, combined with record pace January month-end flows. Metals were subject to a now-famous 6-sigma event (where volatility exceeds 99.9996% of previous observations), taking Silver back to $78 and Gold back below $5,000.In parallel, the US Dollar spiked higher, reversing a large part of its end-January move lower as participants saw Warsh's nomination as a positive for the Greenback.The 2006-2011 Governor was seen as a "hard money hawk", so his appointment was initially seen as negative for stocks and risk-assets, particularly given movements in Metals and Cryptocurrencies.Seen as a reformist, the next Fed Chair will undoubtedly contribute to drastic changes in the way the central bank operates – the rest will be to know if it gets a positive response from investor sentiment.Being appointed by Trump and remaining close to the current Administration, it would be surprising to see the opposite.Propped higher by Iran tensions turning into discussions, a very positive surprise on the Manufacturing PMIs (52.6 vs 48.5 exp!) and month-beginning reallocations, US Benchmarks are heading to their recent highs in the morning session. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:29 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – February 2, 2026 Except for struggling big names like Microsoft, Tesla, Nvidia or even Disney (-4.30%), the daily picture is broadly bullish. A good sign to start the new month.Let's dive into our daily session charts and trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Markets Today: Euro Zone output rebounds, gold and silver extend slide, FTSE 100 resilientMarkets Weekly Outlook - NFP forecast, Fed's new direction, RBA rate hike risk, BoE/ECB pause and big tech earningsChart alert: Gold extends plunge by 9%, approaching $4,405 inflection level for potential minor bounceDow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – February 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView The bullish impulse from this morning officially broke the downtrend from the past week, with the 4H looking strong after the lower wick at the Open.Many factors are to be considered to trade Equities these days, between earnings (season now ending), geopolitical and political events colliding.Still, the DJIA holds its rangebound picture near the all-time highs (48,400 to 49,700), sign of investor resilience despite the uncertainty.Now testing the upper bound of its intraday resistance (49,350), bulls will want to close above the level for chances to break its record – The RSI and current candle point towards that direction but watch for a potential rejection.Keep in mind that the trading range holding would imply selling flows around 49,600 to 49,700.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsIntraday Resistance 49,200 to 49,350 (testing)49,400 morning highsATH Resistance From 49,600 to 49,700All-time Highs 49,71050,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport LevelsChristmas ATH Daily Mom. Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (4H MA 50 at 49,080)Intraday Support 48,600 to 48,70048,713 Session lowsKey Support around 47,50045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – February 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is now retesting its Friday highs, coming in at a key test around 25,800.This level acted as a key resistance since October 2025 and held pressure on the Index so managing to hold above provides a cleaner setup for a bullish breakout.For now, like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq remains in a wide range, hence when approaching key resistance and support levels, look for mean-reversion plays.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsSession Highs 25,824Pivotal Resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (testing)26,246 FOMC highsAll-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Support LevelsMini-support 25,200 to 25,500 +/- 75 ptssession lows 25,470Wednesday lows 24,91324,500 Main supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – February 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView As evidenced in our Friday analysis, the S&P 500 is outperforming its peers and is on pace to retest its all-time highs.Still, the index will be restricted by similar macro factors as Nasdaq and the Dow. In the meantime, it looks like bulls are pushing for a test of the 7,020 record which should be confirmed if the session closes above 7,000.The next levels of interest are located around 7,080.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsCurrent ATH 7,020All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020Potential Breakout targets (Fibonacci-Extensions)1.362 = 7,0801.618 = 7,119Support LevelsKey Pivot 6,945 to 6,975Minor-Support 6,880 to 6,900Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,850 (Greenland lows)6,800 Psychological Support6,789 Greenland lows6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep an eye on sentiment on Monday!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Gold has entered a disorderly liquidation phase: Driven primarily by forced unwinding of leveraged long positions rather than a shift in Fed policy expectations.Margin hikes and order flows, not Fed politics, are the real catalyst: CME’s increase in gold and silver futures margin requirements sharply raised capital costs, choking off bullish risk appetite and triggering cascading sell-offs, while US 2-year yields signal no hawkish repricing.Near-term setup favours a tactical bounce, with clear risk levels: Gold is approaching the critical US$4,405 support, reinforced by multiple technical confluences and extreme volatility readings; a hold above this level opens scope for a minor mean-reversion rebound, while a break lower signals further downside. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart alert: Gold has formed a medium-term blow-off top below $5,600,” published on 30 January 2026.The price actions of Gold (XAU/US) have staged the expected corrective decline on last Friday, 30 January 2026, to hit the second intermediate support at US$4,757 as highlighted.The yellow precious metal printed an intraday low at US$4,679 and closed the US session at US$4,895 on Friday, 30 January 2026, recording a daily loss of 9%, its steepest drop since 1983.Order flows are the main catalyst for the steep losses, not Kevin Warsh zoom_out_map Fig. 1: 2-YR US Treasury yield medium-term trend as of 2 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView) Several media reports have highlighted that US President Trump’s official announcement to nominate ex-Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair is likely the driver that triggered the rampant sell-off in gold and silver due to his past remarks on his preference for a smaller US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, which may lead to an indirect tightening of liquidity conditions.However, the US Treasury market does not imply such a narrative that “Kevin Warsh is going to be a new hawkish Fed Chair”.The 2-year US Treasury yield, which is the most sensitive to the Fed’s monetary policy stance, did not trade higher last Friday; instead, it dropped by 4 basis points to close lower at 3.52%, and remained below the medium-term range resistance of 3.63% in place since 30 October 2025 (see Fig. 1).In today’s Asia session, 2 February 2026, Gold (XAU/USD) has continued to extend its losses by 9% to print an intraday low of US$4.402 at the time of writing due to a hike in metal futures margins announced by CME Group over the weekend.COMEX gold futures margins (1oz) are raised from 6 per cent to 8 per cent, while COMEX 5000 silver futures (SI) are set to increase to 15 per cent from 11 per cent.Hence, such increases in margin requirements are likely lead to a further unwinding of speculative long positions in Gold and Silver.Higher capital outlays to sustain or extend long positions abruptly choked off bullish risk appetite, unleashing a cascading liquidation in Gold (XAU/USD).Let's now look at the short-term technical chart to decipher the near-term (1 to 3 days) trajectoryShort-term trend (1 to 3 days): Minor mean reversion rebound after overextended decline zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 2 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the US$4,405 key short-term pivotal support on Gold (XAU/USD). A clearance above US$4,742 (also the 20-day moving average) is likely to increase the odds of a minor mean reversion rebound towards the next intermediate resistances at US$4,942 and US$5,169 (also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the steep decline from 26 January 2026 all-time high to 2 February 2026 intraday low) (see Fig. 2).However, a break and an hourly close below US$4,405 invalidates the minor bullish recovery scenario for a further extension of the corrective decline towards the next intermediate supports at US$4,285 and US$4,129.Key elements to support the short-term bullish bias The US$4,405 key short-term pivotal support is defined by a confluence of different elements that point to a similar level of around US$4,405; the 50-day moving average, the lower boundary of a medium-term ascending channel from 28 October 2025, and a Fibonacci extension of the current drop, measured from the current all-time high of 29 January 2026.Hourly Bollinger Bandwidth has spiked to an extreme 15.25, indicating a volatility climax and suggesting the recent price sell-off is overextended in the near term. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US President finally gave his answer for who will be the next Federal Reserve Chairman of the Board.Trump loves a good surprise. Just after announcing he would provide the decision next week, turns out he did so in the early morning through a Truth Social Post.Kevin Warsh will be serving as the Chairman for the Fed for a first four-year term beginning in May 2026. The announcement came with swift Market reactions – Gold and other metals are falling off a cliff, Stocks gapped lower in today's open and the Dollar is heading higher.This definitely looks like "Sell the news" flows – the rest for traders will be to see if this continues or not. zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, January 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView We will dive into Mr Warsh's past endeavours, what he represents for the Federal Reserve and our expectations on the effect he should have on Markets. Discover:Markets Today: European economies expand, gold and silver plunge as markets await Fed Chair announcement and PCE dataMetals flashing red after record runs – Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) OutlookChart alert: Gold has formed a medium-term blow-off top below $5,600Who is Kevin Warsh?His past Kevin Warsh’s career is a distinguished blend of high-level academia, private sector expertise, and public service. He holds an A.B. in public policy from Stanford University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School, where he focused on the intersection of law and economics – A clean, classic background for somebody who could run the Fed. FYI, Powell also held a Law Degree.Shortly after his completing his studies, Warsh distinguished himself at Morgan Stanley, where he served as Executive Director in the M&A department from 1995. Warsh quickly became a specialist in structuring complex capital market transactions across diverse industries for the Financial Institution. His competence for Markets caught the eye of the George W. Bush administration, leading to his appointment as Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy in 2002 being only 32.In 2006, Kevin got appointed at the Board of Governors at the Federal Reserve, being the youngest to reach the position, which drew some criticism.Still, being well connected to Wall Street after his stay at MS, he quickly got accepted as "invaluable" for the Fed.Warsh became Ben Bernanke’s (Fed Chair during the period) primary "emissary" to the financial world during the 2008 meltdown. His unique ability to speak the "language of the markets" made him the central bank’s most vital conduit to Wall Street CEOs and global regulators.Just the fact that he remained at the Fed from 2006 to 2011 proves he was well-suited for the Job. It wasn't the easiest period in financial markets. zoom_out_map Dow Jones from 2006 to 2012 and Warsh's first Fed term – Source; TradingView He also served as the Fed's representative to the G20 and for Emerging and Advanced economies of Asia before resigning in March 2011.After his first stay at the Fed, Warsh transitioned into heavyweight intellectual roles in many establishments and foundations. At the Hoover Institution, he became a prominent advocate for regime change in monetary policy, often criticizing the Fed’s long-term reliance on balance sheet expansion. One of his most notable global achievements was an independent report, the Warsh Review, commissioned by the Bank of England which increased the Central Bank's transparency policy.Fun fact, Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney was the Bank of England's Governor during that period.He also was part of the favorites to be the Fed Chair in 2018, but the first Trump Administration preferred to go towards safety with Jerome Powell (as he was still deemed too young for the position).The new Fed Chair still kept close ties with the US President, taking us to today. Let's now see what he represents for Markets and how it can affect the US Dollar and other assets.Warsh and his impact on Markets This section can either age like Wine or Milk and will, of course, be subject to extensive reviews as his term commences and his first speeches as Fed Chair get delivered.Kevin Warsh is not Wall Street's preferred choice (Rick Rieder held that role), but still represents Respect and Credibility for his role.The Nominee was known for his relatively hawkish views towards the end of his first term at the Fed, notably getting named a "hard money hawk" by CNBC.But being close to the Trump Administration, particularly today, implies sacrificing some of one's impartial judgment. Kevin Warsh is an advocate for tax and regulatory reforms, so as long as Trump's fiscal policies aren't too extreme, he should stay mostly in line with the President.Something positive for the US Dollar and fiat currencies in general is that Warsh tends to be a realist rather than a dove-maximalist. He did express his discontent with the second round of Quantitative Easing.A good place to look for Market reactions to his credibility regarding the Dollar is the Dollar itself.The DXY (Dollar Index) has been strengthening again after the pre-FOMC super-tumble. As long as the Index remains below 97.00, it could just be classical mean-reversion. For now, the rebound looks solid. zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart. January 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView Stock Indexes have opened lower but I wouldn't take this as a red flag. Stocks did rise after the FOMC meeting and despite yesterday's selling session, benchmarks rebounded and largely remain close to their all-time highs.What you are seeing today is the result of profit-taking ahead of a high-risk weekend (Iran, or more Trump Admin madness anywhere else).If Warsh follows Trump's demands, he should help Equities to rise on the long-run. The President loves to base his own performance looking at Markets for those who did not know, so Trump surely will push for his nominee to do the same. The rest will of course also depend on the US Economy and global risk-appetite (and lack of any major Crisis).Regarding Fiat currency credibility, it will be tough to say.Kevin Warsh isn't the favored candidate to reduce the Fed's Balance Sheet – So that's about that for Fiscal reduction concerns.Still, his realistic views may help with the recent Debasement Trade trends, part of the reason why we saw steep profit-taking around Metals today. zoom_out_map Metas Performance today (11:32 A.M.). January 30, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz The yield curve is also steepening further, with the shorter-term yields (3M to 5Y) going lower while the long end (10Y and more) is rising – Implying pricing for more cuts today and more inflation later.This is a repricing for further dovishness from the Trump-nominee, not seen as such a Yes-Man as Kevin Hassett, but also not a candidate who will stand up to the President like Powell. zoom_out_map Daily US Treasury Yields movement. January 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView For the rest, time will tell. Risk-appetite is looking timid amid the past two years of relentless rallies across asset classes and geopolitical instability.His first address, particularly his first Press Conference as Fed Chair (June 17, 2026), will be quintessential for Markets.Tribute to Jerome Powell Jerome Powell will surely go down as one of the most popular Fed Chairs.Known as a Market stabilizer, Powell would always push for the lowest volatility outcome over his 8 years as Fed Chair, may it be through the first rounds of post-Great Financial Crisis rate tightening in 2018-2019 or the quick U-turn towards zero-rate policies the year after, as COVID struck hard.Even when Participants thought he was a dove, he did not hesitate to show his hawkish wings during the 2022 hiking cycle and maintained that tone until inflation abated. zoom_out_map Fed Funds Rate since 2015 – Source: FRED He was a Swiss Army knife at the head of the most important central bank and held his role with righteousness—a very talented speaker who always knew how to shapeshift curve balls and tricky questions during press conferences. Or even attacks from his President.Markets will surely miss Jerome Powell as Fed Chair – now we'll see if he wants to stay on the Board of Governors, with his term still valid until January 31, 2028.He will also be remembered for years of good memes. I'm part of Generation Z, so this one is a bit more personal. zoom_out_map Money printer go "PRRRRRRRR" Safe Trades and wishing good luck to Kevin Warsh (and the Financial System)!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. 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