Key takeaways Brent crude oil surged above $106/bbl as the prolonged Iran conflict and continued Strait of Hormuz disruption reinforced fears of persistent global energy supply shortages and inflation pressures.The Federal Reserve maintained its “higher for longer” stance after stronger inflation data and elevated energy prices reduced expectations for rate cuts, while Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Fed chair, further shaping future policy expectations.The Trump-Xi summit kept markets cautious after Xi Jinping warned over Taiwan tensions, contributing to weakness across major Asia-Pacific equity indices despite continued resilience in US equities.Chart of the day: Nikkei 225 is now facing potential near-term weakness below 63,270 key short-term resistance, reinforced by a jump in oil prices.Top macro headlines Trump-Xi Summit culminates with Taiwan warning: U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping wrap up a two-day state visit featuring business deals, but Xi issued a stark warning that mishandling the Taiwan issue could push U.S.-China relations to "a very dangerous place."Oil hovers above $106 on Iran war: Brent crude oil prices surged 5% over the week, hovering above $106 a barrel as the prolonged Iran conflict keeps the key Strait of Hormuz largely shut.Fed holds steady amid inflation shock, Warsh confirmed: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams stated there is no need right now to weigh any change in interest rate policy amid the Middle East war uncertainty. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate approved Kevin Warsh as chair of the Federal Reserve.Gold set for weekly decline: Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,619.49 per ounce, down 1.9% for the week, pressured by higher energy prices fueling fears of inflation and prolonged higher interest rates.US retail sales and jobless claims increase: U.S. retail sales increased by 0.5% m/m in April, in line with expectations, while initial jobless claims also increased moderately last week, pointing to a stable but inflation-pressured economy.Key macro themes Inflation and "higher for longer" rates: Higher energy prices from the Middle East war are driving up inflation, reinforcing fears that interest rates will remain higher for longer, as confirmed by NY Fed President John Williams.Geopolitical tensions drive commodities: The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz is keeping oil prices (Brent) elevated above $106, while the US dollar's strength makes greenback-priced bullion more expensive, leading to a weekly decline in gold.Sino-US relations in focus: The Trump-Xi summit brings both economic deals and geopolitical warnings, specifically concerning Taiwan, making the Asia Pacific region highly sensitive to diplomatic outcomes.Global market impact (last 24 hours) Equities: Despite global energy flows disrupting markets, the benchmark S&P 500 index extended its rally in 2026 towards the next psychological level of 7,500 and a record high.Fixed Income: The prospect of prolonged higher interest rates, fueled by oil-driven inflation and affirmed by Fed officials, continues to exert pressure on bond markets.FX: The US Dollar Index gained over 1% this week, supported by higher inflationary data in the US, in turn, significantly reducing Fed rate cut bets in 2026 and 2027 according to the CME FedWatch tool.Commodities: Brent crude oil is hovering above $106 a barrel (up 5% this week). Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,619.49 per ounce, while spot silver fell 2.8% to $81.10.Asia Pacific impact Stock markets: Markets are closely watching the conclusion of the Trump-Xi talks in Beijing, especially after Xi's stark warning regarding Taiwan, which could impact regional stability and equities. A stronger USD is now triggering weakness in regional benchmark stock indices at the open. NIkkei 225 (-0.8%), KOSPI (-2%), Hang Seng Index (-0.8%), China A50 (-0.3%), ASX 200 (-0.3%), and STI (-0.1%) at this time of writing.Currencies: The yuan is an outlier among its Asia Pacific peers; USD/CNH (offshore yuan) is trading almost unchanged at around 6.79, while AUD and NZD both decline by 0.4% against the USD, in line with lacklustre Asia Pacific equities.Economic Outlook: The improving regional manufacturing recovery in Taiwan and South Korea faces headwinds from expensive energy imports and a fading global risk appetite if the ceasefire is broken.Top 2 events to watch today Conclusion of the Trump-Xi Beijing Summit Impact: USD/CNH, global equities.US Industrial Production (Apr) - 9.15 pm SGT (consensus: 0.3% m/m, Mar: -0.5% m.m) Impact: USD, US stock indicesChart of the day - Nikkei 225 bearish breakdown below ascending channel support Fig. 1: Japan 225 CFD index minor trend as of 15 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). The Japan 225 CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) is now staging an intraday decline of -1.7% at the opening on Friday, 15 May, Asian session.Its price action is now breaking below a month-long ascending channel support at 61,945 from the 30 March 2026 low, which increases the odds of a minor corrective decline sequence to retrace towards its 20-day moving average.Watch the 63,270 key short-term pivotal resistance for the next intermediate support to come in at 61,180/60,795 (also the 20-day moving average). A break below 60,795 may trigger a further intraday drop towards 59,970 next.On the flipside, a clearance with an hourly close above 63,270 invalidates the bearish scenario to revive the bullish impulsive up move sequence towards the next intermediate resistances (new all-time highs) at 64,145, and 65,010/040 (Fibonacci extension cluster). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways The 2026 Trump-Xi summit is viewed as a critical geopolitical event for financial markets, with investors primarily seeking signs of stabilisation in US-China trade relations, technology restrictions, and broader geopolitical tensions.Markets are focused on potential progress in semiconductor export controls, AI technology access, Taiwan-related communication channels, and currency stability, as even modest diplomatic improvements could support risk assets and Asian equities.The most likely market outcome remains a limited “managed competition” framework rather than a comprehensive trade deal, which could trigger only a temporary relief rally before markets refocus on inflation, oil prices, and Federal Reserve policy risks. Today’s two-day meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing is shaping up to be one of the most consequential geopolitical events for global markets in 2026The summit comes at a time of heightened tensions driven by trade frictions, technology restrictions, Taiwan-related security concerns, and the inflation shock stemming from the Iran conflict.Key expectations from the Trump–Xi summitTemporary trade stabilisation rather than a full deal Markets are likely expecting a de-escalation framework instead of a comprehensive trade agreement. Possible outcomes include:Partial tariff rollbacks or suspension of new tariffs.Agreements to resume high-level economic dialogue.China pledges increased purchases of US agricultural, energy, or industrial goods.Reduced rhetoric on export controls and sanctions.A broad structural trade deal remains unlikely due to strategic rivalry between the two powers.Supply chain and technology negotiations Technology remains the core battleground. Investors will focus on:Potential easing or delay of US semiconductor export restrictions (Watch out for potential easing of controls on Nvidia's H200 AI chips to China).Negotiations surrounding AI chips, rare earths, EV batteries, and critical minerals.Whether China receives any concessions on access to advanced technology.Any softening stance could trigger strong rallies in Asian tech equities and semiconductor-linked stocks.Taiwan and security communication channels A key objective may simply be reducing geopolitical tail risks:Re-establishment of military communication hotlines.Commitments to avoid escalation around the Taiwan Strait.Diplomatic language aimed at reducing accidental military confrontation.Even symbolic cooperation would likely be viewed positively by risk assets.Currency and financial market stability Given recent USD volatility and concerns over inflation:China may resist sharp yuan depreciation (the offshore CNH has continued to strengthen in the past week, approaching a 3-year high of 6.7740 per USD).The US may seek commitments against competitive devaluation.Both sides could emphasize financial stability to calm bond and FX markets.This would matter significantly for Asian FX, emerging markets, and global risk sentiment.Possible market reactions Positive scenario (most market-friendly):Limited trade truce with improved diplomatic tone may trigger a rally in equities, Asian exporters, semiconductors, and cyclical assets.Neutral scenario (most likely):Constructive dialogue, but few concrete deliverables may lead to a short-term relief rally followed by renewed focus on inflation and rates.Negative scenario (least likely):Breakdown in talks or aggressive rhetoric on tariffs/Taiwan sees a risk-off move into USD, gold, Treasuries, and defensive sectors. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Nasdaq 100 extended its medium-term bullish trend to a fresh record high of 29,390, supported largely by explosive gains in semiconductor and AI-related stocks such as Intel, Advanced Micro Devices, and SanDisk.The strong correlation between the Nasdaq 100 and the iShares Semiconductor ETF suggests that emerging exhaustion signals in semiconductor stocks could trigger a near-term corrective pullback in the broader tech-heavy index.Bearish technical indicators, including bearish RSI divergence, overstretched price action above the 20-day moving average, and Bollinger Band exhaustion conditions, point to rising risks of a short-term mean reversion decline below the 29,505/615 resistance zone. This is a follow-up analysis on the prior report, “Nasdaq 100 bulls still in control above 28,280 key support amid US-Iran tensions”, published on 8 May 2026.The price actions of the US Nasdaq CFD index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) have surged as expected; it rallied by 3.2% from Friday, 8 May 2026 intraday low of 28,480 to hit a fresh all-time intraday high of 29,390 on Monday, 11 May 2026 in the US session.Its current medium-term uptrend phase has been in place since the 30 March 2026 low, and a significant contribution of the gains has been from US semiconductor and AI-hardware related stocks, such as SanDisk (+151%), Intel (+150%), and Advanced Micro Devices (+105%) in the past three months.US semiconductors are showing signs of medium-term bullish exhaustion Fig. 1: Correlation of iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) with Nasdaq 100 as of 12 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Fig. 2: iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) medium-term trend as of 12 May 2025 (Source: TradingView) The price movement of the Nasdaq 100 and the iShares Philadelphia (PHLX) Semiconductor Sector exchange-traded fund (SOXX) has moved in almost perfect direct lockstep (see Fig. 1).The 20-day rolling coefficient between the Nasdaq 100 and SOXX stands at 0.95, which indicates that future movements of US semiconductor stocks, using SOXX as a bellwether is likely to have a significant influence and impact on the Nasdaq 100.The prior 6-week consecutive rally of the SOXX has reached an overstretched volatility condition, as seen in the daily Bollinger Bands indicator.The daily price action of SOXX has a daily close above the upper Bollinger Band (two standard deviations away from the 20-day moving average) on Monday, 11 May 2026, coupled with a bearish divergence condition seen on the daily RSI momentum indicator at its overbought zone (see Fig. 2).These observations suggest the bullish impulsive up move of SOXX since the 30 March 2026 low has reached a potential bullish exhaustion condition, where the next movement may be a multi-day corrective decline sequence, in turn, triggering a negative feedback loop into the Nasdaq 100.Let’s now uncover the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory of the Nasdaq 100 from a technical analysis perspective.Nasdaq 100 – At risk of minor mean reversion decline below 29,505/615 Fig. 3: US Nasdaq 100 CFD index minor trend as of 13 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Trend bias: Minor corrective decline below 29,505/615 key short-term pivotal resistance within medium-term uptrend (see Fig. 3).Supports: 28,660, 28,460/280, and 27,850 (close to the 20-day moving average)Next resistances: 29,893/953 and 30,410/417 (Fibonacci extension clusters)Key elements to support the near-term bearish bias on the Nasdaq 100 The current all-time intraday high of 29,390 printed on Monday, 11 May 2026, has moved significantly away from its 20-day moving average by almost 6%.The hourly RSI momentum indicator flashed a bearish divergence condition on Monday, 11 May 2026.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bearish breakdown below its key ascending support on Tuesday, 12 May 2026. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

After yesterday's sharp rally in alternative precious metals, with Copper, Platinum, and Silver all surging as Chinese inflation reached a 45-month high, the strong upward momentum has now eased.However, Precious Commodities traders were caught off guard by this morning's higher-than-expected US inflation report. As the US Dollar surged in response to the hawkish CPI data, traditional risk assets and alternative metals pulled back. Still, the metals complex is holding strong relative to the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the broader cryptocurrency market, which are seeing much sharper declines today. Metals performance since the beginning of May 2026 – Source: TradingView. May 12, 2026 Broad financial markets are now essentially frozen in a state of suspended animation following the CPI release – Participants eyes are firmly turning toward the monumental Trump-Xi diplomatic summit scheduled over the next three days. This high-stakes meeting between the world's two largest economic superpowers is virtually guaranteed to rock global investor appetite and set the directional tone for the remainder of the quarter – And metals won't be isolated from such dynamics.Despite the current economic and geopolitical uncertainty, Gold has stayed relatively quiet: The metal is consolidating within its wide $4,500 to $4,900 range. By holding steady and absorbing market volatility, Gold is building a solid technical foundation for a possible longer-term rally.Importantly, Gold has stayed resilient even with recent hawkish data and the fast-paced rise in Crude oil prices; Ongoing relative strength which suggests that the fundamental outlook for this safe-haven asset may be changing in the near future.Traders should expect massive, headline-driven volatility in the very near term all across Markets and the Yellow Metals – The ultimate question is which direction this historic consolidation will finally break. Let's dive right into a multi-timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) to look where the action could head for the rest of the week, if not weeks. Read More:Silver (XAG/USD) is in breakout mode, pushing above $85 – In-depth Silver technical analysisThe US Dollar rallies back after CPI, is the correction is over ? – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overviewChart alert: WTI crude is poised for a potential volatility bullish breakout above $102.54/bblGold (XAU/USD) Multi Timeframe Technical AnalysisWeekly Chart Gold Weekly Chart, May 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView Gold has been forming the basis for a decent support between $4,500 and $4,900, helping the previously bearish momentum to turn neutral.Having failed to push for further downside, bulls are slowly regaining the advantage with the Weekly RSI slowly turning bullish since the beginning of the month.This week's candle, still forming, is for now looking like a Bullish Hammer.4H Chart and Technical Levels Gold 4H Chart, May 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView After a bearish reaction to the morning US Inflation numbers, some mean reversion buying is pushing back above the previous candle, forming an bullish engulfing pattern.Buyers will want to pursue this bullish momentum to push above the $4,780 weekly highs.Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD) trading:Resistance Levels:Intraday highs $4,780$4,850 to $4,900 Key Resistance (Range highs)$5,100 Pivotal ResistanceGold ATH record $5,602Support Levels:Daily Momentum Pivot $4,650 - $4,700December 2025 Support $4,500 to $4,550 (Range lows)Major Support $4,350 to $4,400War lows $4,1011H Chart Gold 1H Chart, May 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Yellow Metal is extending higher towards the end of the session, back above the $4,700 level and the 50-Hour MA.Bulls will need to expand their strength above the intraday level to extend further – Below $4,650, the 200-Hour MA, the action may get more bearish towards the bottom of the range.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Silver has officially entered what looks to be a real breakout. As we noted in our Friday analysis, the metals sector was overdue for a rally, and that move is now underway – Silver has attracted strong buying and has surged past the key $85 level to start the week, up 7% on the session. Daily Metal Performance (14:56). May 11, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz The macroeconomic environment is changing: In recent weeks (if not months now!), geopolitical headlines have stopped driving daily moves in most risk assets, and the precious commodities were not isolated. Metals were hit hard at first by conflict and rate-hike fears, but while that link has not disappeared, it is fading. Energy is now the only asset class still reacting to news coming from the Middle East, mostly because of supply issues in Hormuz and the lack of a ceasefire agreement. One of the most interesting parts of this breakout is the fact that Silver is moving higher without help from gold, which usually sets the direction for the alternative asset class: Normally, silver follows Gold’s moves, but this time, the strong bounce suggests there is real demand and strong buying interest focused on alternative metals instead.Traders could also be responding to China’s higher inflation report from yesterday, which suggests its inflation, a short-cut for economic activity after deflationary trends, is starting to recover. Silver and Copper are not just precious metals—they are mainly industrial metals. When China, the world’s largest industrial producer, shows stronger economic activity, it usually means demand for these metals is rising. Metals performance since April 2026 – Source: TradingView. May 11, 2026 We will dive into a Silver two-timeframe intraday analysis to prepare for the heavy action that's unfolding in front of our eyes – Is this a breakout ? Let's get right into it. Read More:Copper near record highs. Market fears supply constraints and bets on strong demandMarkets Weekly Outlook - Is the 'Risk-On' Rally sustainable with rates and energy elevated?Tech does not wait on CPI and Geopolitics – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 CPI LevelsSilver (XAG/USD) Intraday timeframe Technical Analysis4H Chart and Technical Levels Silver 4H Chart, May 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView After forming a bullish weekly divergence, the action is now turning much more bullish and this translated into a break of the prior $83 to $84.50 resistance, now acting as key momentum pivot.Evolving into a steep bull channel, the move should trigger high volatility for coming days.Without many resistance levels until there, bulls should remain in control until $90, level to be closely monitored.Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:Resistance Levels:March range Resistance $90 to $92March High Resistance $95 to $97Key psychological resistance $100 to $104All-Time Highs $121Support Levels:Major Resistance now Pivot $83 to $84.50 Pivot highs $80 - $81.50Pivot lows $74.50 - $75$61.10 War Lows1H Chart Silver 1H Chart, May 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView Looking at the 1H Candle points to clearer action ahead, with the morning extension now pointing to a slowing in the buying due to the overbought RSI.The fact that the action did not pullback however translates in the fact that buyers are not giving up their freshly gained advantage.Check out reactions to the channel top however (~$86.50).For late bulls, watch out for overbought conditions – to do so, either wait for a continued explosion (buy stop above $87) or pullback to $81.50 - $82.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks quickly resumed their road to new highs after yesterday's temporary breakNasdaq and S&P 500 maintain their paths to price discovery, but the Dow continues to reflect heavier doubtsExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US stock indexes are bouncing back to new record highs in this morning session, quickly recovering from yesterday’s brief, fear-driven momentum break.The pullback occurred as traders reduced risk following reports of sporadic military clashes in southern Iran, while the market awaited Tehran’s response to a US peace deal.Today, though, Wall Street is ignoring the geopolitical headlines.The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are still moving higher, driven mostly by the technology sector.Most of the biggest tech companies are dancing higher, with the exception of Microsoft; semiconductor stocks are especially strong. The AI-trade just continues to generate traction and is pushing the Nasdaq up by another 1.50% today. Daily Market Performance (11:13). May 8, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Meanwhile, the Dow Jones is showing more hesitation from Investors. Staying flat most of the morning, the Index couldn't withstand its few rebound attempts with most of the money is still going into faster-growing AI stocks.Markets did receive further economic clues: today’s Non-Farm Payrolls report was stronger than expected, which the market welcomed as a sign of US economic resilience despite recent Middle East tensions.However, some analysts are worried about the gap between the steady unemployment rate and the strong job numbers – Dangerous signs when many are still looking to see the impact of the change in the Bureau of Labor Statistics that happened at the end of 2025.At the same time, the University of Michigan’s early consumer sentiment index stayed weak and continued to fall – Yet, this bleak consumer data is doing absolutely nothing to prevent equities from printing fresh all-time highs.A key reminder that Stock Markets and the economy are two very different things University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and S&P 500 – Source: Koyfin, X To get ready for a potentially volatile weekend, dive into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:Mixed feelings after the April Non-Farm Payrolls beat and Consumer Sentiment miss – Market CheckChart alert: Nasdaq 100 bulls still in control above 28,280 key support amid US-Iran tensionsChart alert: GBP/USD potential bullish reversal above 20-day moving averageCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:32) – Source: TradingView – May 8, 2026 The split is quite evident when looking at the left side of the Market heatmap, representing the now huge Tech sectors and the right (with the more traditional sectors) bleeding.Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – May 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones is still looking for direction in its ongoing consolidation period.Remaining closer to its recent highs despite a higher double top, odds for a breakout could increase if the action remains between 49,500 and 50,000.Breaking 49,500 however may see bearish acceleration, hence the risk is quite binary for the Index.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels49,878 morning highs49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 HighsATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500All-Time Highs 50,544Support LevelsApril 14 Gap Fill Pivot 49,500Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (short-term bearish below)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (mid-term bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – May 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is onto a rocketship, completely bullying through previous record highs and currently pushing beyond 29,000.Finding tops in such price action is a daunting, costly task, but some small profit taking may occur around 29,250 – For now, bulls remain firmly in control.Don't forget to check out our in-depth analysis of the index.Except for any fundamental change, nothing can stop this train!Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels29,250 potential resistance Next level 29,750Support Levels28,500 short-term pivot (ST bearish below)28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)27,500 micro-supportMomentum Pivot at 27,000 (4H 50-period MA)Mini-support 26,600 to 26,750Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300S&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – May 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is now retesting its 7,400 record with the ongoing push from Tech stocks helping the index.Some signs of exhaustions could be appearing however with a diverging RSI.For now, this indicates higher chances of a slowdown in the rally rather than a full-on correction – Next week will be crucialS&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels7,390 - 7,400 Channel extension resistance (morning highs)7,415 161.% Fib Next stop 7,480Support LevelsMomentum Pivot 7,250 to 7,260Channel lows 7,230 (bearish below)7,100 psychological levelPrior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets have shown their fair acts of stoicism in recent days, not reacting the slightest to bad and relatively hawkish news.Yesterday, Iran reported US strikes on its capital and a few key energy-producing regions (including Bandar Abbas and Sirik – close to Hormuz), which came as a direct response to the Iranian firing on Gulf countries at the beginning of the week.Participants believe this will not escalate into something worse; The cold-truce remains, albeit being quite fragile.To enlighten the mood however, Non-Farm Payrolls offered a very decent beat (+115K vs 62K exp) in this morning's release, allowing Investor mood to remain calm ahead of the weekend action.The Unemployment Rate shows unchanged while the unrounded figures show a slight increase – But nothing too alarming. Morning US Data – MarketPulse Economic Calendar Canada is still showing an unstable employment picture with ups and downs virtually every month – The Canadian economy is cyclical and amid extreme doubts all around the globe, these labor numbers can only depict this truth.The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment also just released and came with a miss, with many consumers still signalling fears for higher inflation (logical with prices at the pump at the highest since 2022).You can access the full report right here.We will provide a quick outlook on the Market before diving into WTI (US) Oil Charts to get ready for what could be another volatile weekend. Discover:Chart alert: Nasdaq 100 bulls still in control above 28,280 key support amid US-Iran tensionsChart alert: GBP/USD potential bullish reversal above 20-day moving averageAsia open: Global markets jolted by US-Iran ceasefire violation, and traders brace for NFPA Mixed Market Picture Stock and Energy Product Futures – Courtesy of Finviz Except for the Tech-heavy index quickly restarting its path higher after a quick stopover, Energy and more traditional equities are scratching their heads in search for a concrete direction.True directional moves may only be found next week, with traders preparing for the Trump-Xi meeting in China (May 14).Metals trade higher, particularly Silver and Copper Metals weekly performance – May 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView Silver and Copper are leading a path higher in the entire asset class, with Gold starting to pick up some momentum.WTI (US) Oil forms a new range between $93 and $98 WTI Daily Chart – May 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView Oil is unable to form a concrete breakout, rejecting its up and down spikes at every attempt.As traders await for further news, Crude is stabilizing between $93 and $98, the two boundaries to keep in check for any clear break (watch for a 4H close above or below for higher breakout odds).Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news throughout the weekend.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Markets rattled by renewed US–Iran tensions: A reported ceasefire violation and exchange of fire in the Strait of Hormuz abruptly reversed prior peace optimism, reigniting geopolitical risk premiums and driving oil prices back above key $95–$100 levels.NFP now collides with stagflation fears: Traders are closely watching the US non-farm payrolls report as strong jobs data combined with surging oil prices could reinforce stagflation concerns and keep the Fed on hold throughout 2026.Risk assets turned cautious while safe havens gained: Global equities retreated from record highs, Asian markets reversed lower, and risk-sensitive currencies weakened, while the US dollar held firm on safe-haven demand and gold struggled below key short-term technical resistance near $4,775.Chart of the day: Nikkei 225 at risk of a minor corrective decline within the medium-term uptrend phase, below 62,795 key short-term resistance.Top macro headlines US-Iran ceasefire violated: Reuters reports a severe geopolitical escalation as Tehran accuses the US of violating the ceasefire, resulting in a direct exchange of fire involving US naval destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz. This shatters yesterday's peace optimism and triggered profit-taking in the US stock market on Thursday, 7 May.All eyes on US non-farm payrolls (NFP): Amidst the geopolitical turmoil, traders are bracing for today's critical US NFP report and unemployment rate data to determine the Federal Reserve's next policy move in a highly volatile environment. Based on the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool, interest rate futures traders are still pricing in high odds that the Fed will maintain the Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% throughout 2026.Oil prices violently reversed higher: Following the reports of renewed military engagement and attacks on shipping infrastructure, Brent crude oil immediately reversed up and traded back above the $100/bbl threshold, holding at the 50-day moving average that is acting as a key intermediate support at around $99.80/bbl.Equities retreat from record highs: S&P 500 (-0.4%), Nasdaq 100 (-0.1%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.6%), and Russell 2000 (-0.6%). However, a minimal sell-off was observed in the US technology sector, with positive gains reported in mega-caps Nvidia (+1.8%) and Microsoft (+1.7%).Key macro themes Geopolitical whiplash: Markets have violently transitioned from a "Geopolitical Dividend" (pricing in peace and normalized trade) back to a maximum "Risk Premium" environment within 24 hours.The NFP vs. war tug-of-war: Today's US jobs report is usually the undisputed market driver, but it now competes with live war headlines. A hot NFP print combined with surging oil could create a nightmare scenario for bond markets by reigniting stagflation fears.Energy inflation resurrected: The potential breakdown of the ceasefire instantly places long-term global yield curves back under pressure. Central banks cannot easily ignore the inflationary impacts of $100+ crude oil, sustained by active conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical energy transit chokepoint. Interest rate futures markets indicate the ECB and BOJ will likely hike next month, and the BoE and RBNZ in July.Global market Impact (last 24 hours) Equities: S&P 500 and Nasdaq100 E-mini futures have managed to recover slightly in today’s early Asian session; +0.2% and +0.3% respectively at this time of writing, as US President Trump said the US-Iran ceasefire remains intact after both sides exchanged fire yesterday.Fixed income: US Treasury yields are experiencing extreme volatility. Initial flight-to-safety flows are pushing yields down, but the spectre of surging oil prices threatens to drag long-end yields back up ahead of the NFP release.FX: The US Dollar (DXY) spiked on safe-haven flows and held at 97.95 key near-term support that has been in place since 14 April 2026. Risk-sensitive currencies such as AUD and NZD retreated by 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.Commodities: WTI and Brent crude rebounded, violently retaking the $95/bbl and $100/bbl handle, respectively. Spot Gold’s rally struggled to break above the $4,775/oz level (also close to the 50-day moving average, where it traded below it since 18 March 2026).Asia Pacific impact Stock markets: The anticipated Friday "catch-up rally" in Asian tech was completely derailed. The KOSPI and Nikkei 225 reversed early gains and turned heavily negative with intraday losses of around 1% each as profit-taking activities emerged ahead of the weekend.Currencies: The Australian Dollar (AUD) lost its RBA-driven premium due to waning intraday risk-on appetite, but it remains above its 20-day moving average, which is acting as a key intermediate support at around 0.7180/7160 against the USD.Economic outlook: Major Asian energy importers (such as Japan, South Korea, and India) may face a dual shock today: evaporating global risk appetite and increasing hawkish monetary policy guidance from developed central bank officials such as the ECB and BoE.Top 5 events to watch today Germany Balance of Trade – 2.00 pm SGT Impact: EUR crosses, DAXUS Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) – 8.30 pm SGT: (consensus: 62K, Mar: 178K) Impact: All asset classesUS Unemployment Rate – 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: 4.3%, Mar: 4.3%) Impact: All asset classesUS University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary) – 10.00 pm SGT (consensus: 49.5, Apr: 49.8) Impact: US stock indices, USDUpdates US-Iran conflict – awaiting Iran’s response on US’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Impact: All asset classesChart of the day – Nikkei 225 at risk of minor corrective decline Fig. 1: Japan 225 CFD index minor trend as of 8 May 2026 (Source: TradingView) After a steep rally from Monday, 4 May 2026, the Japan CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) may stage a potential minor mean reversion decline towards the lower boundary of the ascending channel in place since the 30 March 2026 low.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bearish breakdown below its ascending support after it flashed out a prior bearish divergence condition at its overbought region on Thursday, 7 May 2026 (see Fig. 1).Watch the 62,795 key short-term pivotal resistance for a potential minor corrective decline towards the 61,180/60,795 immediate support, and breaking below it exposes 59,970 next (also close to the rising 20-day moving average).On the other hand, a clearance with an hourly close above 62,795 invalidates the bearish scenario for a continuation of the bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 64,145 and 65,010/65,040. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Gold rebounded on easing geopolitical tensions: Gold (XAU/USD) surged 3% as optimism over a potential US–Iran peace deal reduced stagflation fears and increased expectations that the Fed could eventually pivot toward rate cuts, weakening the US dollar.Technical and intermarket signals remain cautious: Despite the rally, gold remains one of the weaker-performing major assets since late February, while firm US 10-year real yields above 1.85% continue to limit upside momentum by raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.Near-term bearish bias still intact: Gold’s rebound stalled near the downward-sloping 20-day and 50-day moving averages and close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, while RSI momentum indicators flashed bearish divergence, keeping resistance at 4,775 in focus. Gold (XAU/USD) has staged a significant intraday rally of 3% on Wednesday, 6 May 2026, on the backdrop of easing US-Iran geopolitical tensions, as positive news flows suggest a potential imminent peace deal resolution to end the two-month-long conflict.An end to the US–Iran war would likely reduce stagflation risks as lower oil prices ease inflationary pressures, potentially giving the US Federal Reserve greater scope to consider resuming interest rate cuts.A shift in Fed guidance from a “wait-and-see” stance toward a more dovish tone could weaken the US dollar, which in turn may provide further support for gold prices.So far, considering the pre-war baseline of 27 February 2026 to Wednesday, 6 May 2026, spot Gold (LMBA) is still one of the underperformers among major cross assets with a loss of 9.9% (see Fig. 1). Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) with major cross assets performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 6 May 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). Secondly, technical factors and intermarket analysis advocate that the trend of Gold (XAU/USD) has not transitioned into a medium-term uptrend phase despite yesterday’s 3% rally.Let’s unpack these key technical and intermarket charts now.The 10-year US Treasury real yield remains supported at 1.85% Fig. 2: Correlation of 10-year US Treasury real yield with Gold (XAU/USD) as of 7 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Gold (XAU/USD) has a significant indirect correlation with the longer-term US Treasury yields, as the precious yellow metal is a non-interest income-bearing asset.Hence, if the 10-year US Treasury real yield remains supported and stages an up move, gold in turn is likely to face downside pressure as opportunity costs rise for owning precious metals.Since the start of this week, 4 May 2026, the 10-year US Treasury real yield has traded sideways above its key moving averages (20-day, 50-day, and 200-day) while holding above a key intermediate support of 1.85%.Thus, a minor push-up on the 10-year US Treasury real yield to retest its near-term range resistance at 1.98% may translate to a minor slide in Gold (XAU/USD) (see Fig. 2).Let’s focus now on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of Gold (XAU/USD)Gold (XAU/USD) – Bullish momentum has eased off after a retest on 20-day MA Fig. 3: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 7 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Trend bias: Bearish bias within a range configuration in place from 17 April 2026 to 19 April 2026. 4,775 key short-term pivotal resistance cannot be surpassed to maintain bearish bias (see Fig. 3).Supports: 4,645, 4580, and 4,524/4,486 (range support)Next resistance: 4,860/4,900 (range resistance – 15 April/17 April 2026 highs)Key elements to support the near-term bearish bias on Gold (XAU/USD) The recent rebound from the 5 May 2026 low has reached the area of the downward-sloping 20-day and 50-day moving averages.The rebound has also almost retraced 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior drop from the 17 April 2026 high to the 5 May 2026 low at 4,740.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has exited the overbought region (above the 70 level) with a prior bearish divergence condition. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Copper and other metals are exploding higher from the elevated hopes of a conflict resolutionProfiting from the tumble in the US Dollar, the Metal is retesting its early April highs and looks to break higherUS Dollar Index (DXY) in-depth Technical Analysis After a rough end of April, Copper and other metals are surging today, driven by growing optimism for a clear diplomatic solution to the conflict in the Middle East.Since early 2025 and particularly since the start of the War, the metals market is showing an unusual pattern, moving in the opposite direction of the US Dollar. In the past, metals have often served as a defensive alternative when stocks are volatile.But since this conflict began, metals and stocks have mostly moved together, reacting strongly to changes in geopolitical tension and relief. Metals Performance in 2026 and Dollar Index Correlation – Source: TradingView Copper has been making headlines, outperforming gold at the start of the year.Copper is benefiting from today’s sharp drop in the US Dollar. It is now retesting its early April highs and appears ready to move even higher. But, in addition to short-term correlation factors, copper is getting strong support from major long-term trends. The growth of AI infrastructure and heavy capital spending by large tech companies are driving demand for copper, which is needed for advanced data center circuits and cooling systems. On top of that, large investments are planned to upgrade and modernize North America’s electrical grid. All of this is fueling strong interest in copper. Metals Performance (15:03) – Source: TradingView. May 6, 2026 Overall, while copper is traditionally known as a highly cyclical industrial metal, standard cyclicality has simply not been dictating its recent price action. On the contrary, these massive swings have been almost entirely explained by movements in the US Dollar. Luckily for copper bulls, the greenback is aggressively falling off the table in today's session, removing the primary overhead headwind.Riding this perfect storm of fundamental demand and currency weakness, prices are now actively trying to push decisively beyond the massive $6.10 high established in April.We’ll explore a few scenarios for upcoming action in an in-depth technical analysis of Copper (XCU/USD) as the metal attempts to break resistance. Discover:Stocks explode higher; The peace deal is seemingly near – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday OutlookBitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Why a close above $82,133 Is needed to resume the bull runConflicting peace narratives ahead of April labor data – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateCopper (XCU/USD) Multi-Timeframe AnalysisDaily Chart Copper (XCU/USD) Daily Chart. May 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView After its past month's 17% rise to $6.10, Copper could not resist the rough patch in the metals Market and pulled back close to 6% right back to its 50-Day moving average.As seen throughout the 2025 bull trend, the asset class moves particularly strongly when reaching and breaching its Daily MAs, so this is a trend to keep your eyes on as traders.The ongoing bounce is impressive as it erased more than two-weeks of progressive correction in two sessions, and the bull candles are now testing the key $6.10 resistance; above this, there isn't much that can stall the move back to the all-time highs ($6.50).4H Chart and Technical Levels Copper (XCU/USD) 4H Chart. May 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView The intraday action is currently forming a tight bull channel to higher levels, and with the RSI reaching overbought levels, the ongoing rally could somewhat stall.Still, higher timeframe momentum hasn't been so extreme yet, so this could see small consolidation which could then lead to continued upside, with the next stop at $6.20.As mentioned in the introduction, Metals are moving on peace prospects, hence a clean deal will be awaited to confirm a continued path to all-time highs – Make sure to track the latest narratives around the peace process.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Copper (XCU/USD):Resistance Levels:$6.10 Early Jan 2026 and April Record (testing the upper bound)Psychological Resistance $6.20 to $6.25Current ATH Resistance $6.40 to $6.50$6.52 Current RecordPotential Resistance $6.90 to $7.00Support Levels:4H 200-period MA / 50-day MA $5.76Momentum Pivot $5.70 to $5.90 Bullish above, Bearish Below recent bounceMinor Support at March 2025 Highs $5.40 to $5.50War lows $5.18200-Day MA $5.24Major Monthly Support between $4.90 to $5.00Safe Trades and keep track of the latest headlines!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin bullies through $80,000 with Tech flows unstoppable and helping the Crypto space to continue higherThe gradual rise in Cryptocurrencies could be helping to stabilize the rally, now developing into a more sustainable breakoutExploring a Technical Analysis and trading levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin has officially broken through the significant $80,000 mark, driven by strong tech-focused investment that is lifting the entire cryptocurrency market in a moment when least expected.Markets are insanely good at playing tricks on expectations and sentiment.Despite their high-risk and beta profile, the technology sector and digital assets are attracting significant attention because traditional investments are under pressure from higher energy prices. With Oil prices rising and affecting the broader economy and corporate profits, the more traditional stocks and sectors are exposed to squeezing margins and performance, hence, investors are now looking at spots unaffected by the geopolitical change.This can be seen in the fantastic rise in the Crypto Market Cap ever since the start of the war, a very surprising dynamic. Total Crypto Market Cap – Daily Chart. May 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView The entire Crypto Market is up 22% since the beginning of the War. Quite surprising especially when looking at the price action before the war.Another factor is the high level of short positions in the market since last October. As these positions are closed, the steady rise in cryptocurrencies is forcing highly leveraged sellers and pushing the ongoing dynamic even further. Large-scale buying is also happening in the background. As mentioned in our late-February analysis when the geopolitical conflict began, most of the long-term distribution in digital assets had already taken place. Bitcoin and Crypto ETF Inflows and Outflows since 2026 – Source: Coinglass Could a major rally be on the way? For this breakout to continue, the market will need more geopolitical stability and ongoing strong investor interest. Every significant rally starts with a foundation, and the current rebound is building a solid base for future growth. If prices stay above the important $70,000 level, the outlook for this crypto rally remains positive.Let's dive right into a technical analysis and key trading levels for both Bitcoin and Ethereum to spot if a clear breakout in indeed into play from here. Read More:GBP/USD Potential Trade Setups: Two opportunities on the bullish retest and breakout playTech bulls were looking for a dip to buy – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday OutlookFX confusion as the US Dollar forms a double bottom – Can the Ceasefire stand? DXY OutlookBitcoin (BTC) 4H Chart and Technical Levels Bitcoin (BTC) 4H Chart, May 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin is now pushing within the $80,000 to $83,000 Resistance, a key region of interest for bulls to break in order to confirm the breakout. The bull channel is still holding strong for now with its top around $85,000.Above this, the longer-term breakout is confirmedRejecting $83,000 level could on the other hand provide a good opportunity for sellers to retake control of the mid-term actionWe are entering a pivotal moment for Cryptocurrency Markets, hence, make sure to track the price action in upcoming weeks.Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels:$75,000 Key long-term Pivot (acting as resistance)$70,000 Short-term momentum Pivot (50 and 200-4H MA)$60,000 to $63,000 Main 2024 support (recent double bottom)$59,935 February Lows$52,000 to $58,000 Next support and 200-Week MA ($55,000 Mid-point)$40,000 Mid-2024 breakout supportResistance Levels:$80,000 to $83,000 mini-resistance (entering, bullish above)$85,000 bull channel top$90,000 to $95,000 minor Resistance$98,000 to $100,000 Pivotal ResistanceCurrent ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000Ethereum (ETH) 4H Chart and Technical Levels Ethereum (ETH) 4H Chart, May 5, 2026– Source: TradingView Ethereum has been somewhat struggling a bit more than Bitcoin to push above its prior month's highs.Nonetheless, with Bitcoin dragging market sentiment higher, it wouldn't be surprising to see the second crypto catch up within the next few days (barring any major negative news).The top of its bull channel is at $2,530; breaking above this should push a particularly bullish momentum, hence this will have to be watched.On the other hand, below $2,200 the price action would get bearish againMake sure to check out reactions to the Non-Farm Payrolls, which will surely have their impact on general risk-sentiment.Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:4H 50 MA $2,300Channel lows $2,200$1,700 to $1,800 Pre-Bounce 2025 Key Support (testing)$1,744 February 6 lows$1,380 to $1,500 2025 Support2025 Lows $1,384Resistance Levels:Mini-Resistance $2,400$2,500 to $2,800 June 2025 Pivotal Resistance$3,000 to $3,200 Major momentum Pivot (Test of the $3,000)$4,950 Current new All-time highsThe narrative is easing, but keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

GBP/USD has reclaimed the key psychological level of 1.35000, which now serves as a foundational support zone.The analysis presents a cautiously optimistic outlook, with medium-term momentum shifting toward the bulls based on the H4 chart MAs.Two potential trade setups are detailed: a Bullish Retest near 1.35380-1.35400 and a Breakout Play above the 1.35844 resistance level.Most Read: FX confusion as the US Dollar forms a double bottom – Can the Ceasefire stand? DXY OutlookThe British Pound has showcased significant resilience over the past few sessions against the Greenback. After finding solid ground near the psychological 1.3500 handle, cable has embarked on a steady recovery, supported by a confluence of technical indicators across various timeframes.H4 Chart: The Macro View – Breaking Structural Resistance On the H4 timeframe, the narrative is one of a trend reversal in the making. For much of the previous month, Cable was locked in a descending channel, characterized by lower highs and lower lows. However, the recent price action shows a definitive break above the descending trendline.More importantly, the pair has reclaimed the psychological 1.35000 handle, which has transitioned from a stubborn resistance level to a foundational support zone. The 100-period Simple Moving Average (MA) (Blue) is currently trending above the 200-period MA (Black), signaling that the medium-term momentum has shifted in favor of the bulls.The RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the H4 is hovering around the 53 mark, suggesting there is ample "runway" left before the pair reaches overbought territory, leaving the door open for a test of the 1.35844 resistance level.GBP/USD Four-Hour Chart, May 5, 2026 Source: TradingView H1 Chart: Intra-day Consolidation and Moving Average Support Zooming into the H1 chart, we can see the granularity of the recent rally. The pair has spent the last 24 hours consolidating just above the 1.35300 area.Looking at price action and GBP/USD is consistently finding support at the 100-MA. Each time the price dips toward the 1.35400 level, buyers have stepped in, creating a series of higher lows.The immediate hurdle for intra-day bulls is the 1.35844 horizontal resistance. A clean hourly candle close above this level would likely trigger a momentum move toward the next major objective at 1.36965.GBP/USD One-Hour Chart, May 5, 2026 Source: TradingView M15 Chart: Scalping Opportunities and Entry Triggers The M15 chart reveals the immediate tactical environment. We are seeing a classic "buy the dip" configuration. The price recently spiked toward the 200-MA (1.35573) and is currently seeing a minor pullback.The RSI Divergence indicator at the bottom of the chart shows a "Pivot" high followed by a "Bear" tag, which explains the current cooling off. This is not necessarily a reversal, but rather a healthy breather within an uptrend.Potential Trade Opportunities (M15):The Bullish Retest: Traders may look for a long entry if the price retraces to the 1.35365 area (confluence of the M15 100-SMA and previous structural support).Potential Entry: 1.35380 - 1.35400Stop Loss: Below the 1.35200 swing low.Target 1: 1.35844 (Recent High/H4 Resistance)Target 2: 1.36200The Breakout Play: A high-conviction move would be a break and retest of the 1.35844 ceiling. If the price clears this level with strong volume, it confirms the H4 bullish bias.Potential Entry: Buy stop at 1.35860 or wait for a retest of 1.35844 as support.Stop Loss: 1.35500Target: 1.36900GBP/USD M15 Chart, May 5, 2026 Source: TradingView The technical outlook for GBP/USD remains cautiously optimistic. As long as price action maintains its position above the 1.35000 psychological floor, the path of least resistance is to the upside.However, traders should keep a close eye on the RSI on the lower timeframes; if the M15 RSI fails to make a higher high alongside price, a deeper correction toward 1.35100 could be on the cards before the next leg up.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Strong rally ahead of earnings raises expectations risk: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has surged ~92% from March lows, driven by AI optimism, with markets now heavily focused on forward guidance rather than just earnings beats.“Sell-the-news” risk in play: Despite strong expected growth (revenue +33% y/y, EPS +34% y/y), AMD’s valuation hinges on AI momentum and hyperscaler demand, increasing the risk of a pullback if guidance underwhelms.Technical signals warn of potential pullback: Overbought conditions, bearish RSI divergence, and a breakout above its ascending channel suggest a mean reversion decline below 380.20, with key supports at 310.20 and 287.60. Ahead of Q1 earnings release today after the close of the US session, expectations for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) remain elevated, with the stock having rallied strongly on AI-driven optimism.During the onset of the US-Iran war that erupted on 28 February 2026, the share price of AMD only shed -5% from 27 February 2026 to 9 March 2026 low of 189.02 (that’s the lowest level reached for AMD so far) before it staged a magnificent rally of 92% to print a current all-time high of 362.79 on Friday, 1 May 2026.So far, AMD’s year-to-date performance as of Monday, 4 May 2026, stands at 59.5%, surpassing the “Magnificent 7”, and the US benchmark stock indices: Russell 2000 (+12.7%), Nasdaq 100 (+9.5%), S&P 500 (+5.25), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.8%). Second to the high-flying “National Champion” Intel that soared by a whopping 159.6% (see Fig. 1). Fig. 1: Intel, AMD, Magnificent7 & US stock indices YTD performance (%) as of 4 May 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) Forward guidance matters more than earnings beat for AMD Consensus forecasts point to robust topline growth, led by Data Centre revenues, as demand for AI accelerators continues to scale. Expectations for revenue stand at $9.8-$9.9 billion (+33% y/y), and EPS is expected to come in at $1.29 (+34% y/y).However, the key focus for investors will be the degree of upside relative to already aggressive expectations, particularly in AI GPU traction and hyperscaler adoption.Like most AI stocks, AMD trades on forward expectations, not current results, which includes whether AI growth is accelerating faster than already aggressive expectations.Historically, AMD can drop even after earnings beats if guidance disappoints (risk of “sell the news” even on strong results).Medium-term technical outlook for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) (1 to 3 weeks) Fig. 2: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) medium-term trend as of 4 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Trend bias: Mean reversion corrective decline below 380.20 key medium-term pivotal resistance within major uptrend phase (see Fig. 2).Supports: 310.20/287.60 (also the 20-day MA), and 264.20 (also the 50% Fibonacci retracement from 9 March 2026 low)Next resistances: 421.94 and 452.43 (Fibonacci extension cluster)Key elements to support the medium-term bearish bias on AMD The break above the upper boundary of its major ascending channel from the 8 April 2025 low on 24 April 2026 suggests an accelerated-up move that increases the risk of a mean reversion corrective decline.The daily RSI momentum indicator has just flashed out a bearish divergence condition at its overbought region, which suggests a potential looming mean reversion decline.The daily volatility-adjusted relative strength (VARS) of AMD against the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund has continued to reflect an outperformance condition of AMD over the SPY, in turn, supporting AMD’s current intact major uptrend phase from the 8 April 2025 low. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervened on April 30 and May 1, 2026, after the USD/JPY pair breached the critical 160.00 level.The aggressive yen-buying action, estimated to be over $30 billion, triggered a sharp 2.2% rally in the yen, driving the pair down toward the 156.00 range.Historical precedent from the 2024 intervention suggests unilateral action is only temporary, serving to "buy time" rather than reversing the trend without fundamental economic shifts.The immediate outlook calls for heightened volatility and sideways consolidation, with key levels to watch being 157.89–158.00 (resistance) and 156.27 (support).Most Read: Dow Jones nears 50,000! Will Stock Market Bulls ever be defeated?USD/JPY pair has undergone a violent shift in sentiment over the last 48 hours. After flirting with the psychological 160.00 handle, the pair was met with what appears to be aggressive yen-buying intervention (or the high-stakes threat of it), sending the pair into a tailspin.According to reports, the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervened in the foreign exchange market on April 30 and May 1, 2026, to defend the yen after it breached the critical 160 per dollar level.The scope of the action involved selling US dollars and buying yen to punish speculators and curb excessive volatility. While official figures are typically released later, initial estimates suggest a massive scale, potentially exceeding $30 billion similar to the 2024 intervention.The move successfully triggered a sharp 2.2% rally in the yen, briefly driving USD/JPY down toward the 156.00 range. As we head into the weekend, the technical landscape has shifted from a one-way bullish street to a complex battleground of massive volatility.The question now is, what comes next for USD/JPY?What comes next for USD/JPY I thought that it may be appropriate to look at the most recent response to FX intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.The 2024 intervention campaign by Japanese authorities resulted in a sharp but ultimately temporary correction for the USD/JPY pair.By executing over $30 billion in dollar sales during the thin liquidity of the May Day holidays, the Bank of Japan successfully drove the exchange rate down to a low of 152.00. However, this success was short-lived, as the intervention only served to "buy time" rather than reverse the underlying trend. Within two months, USD/JPY had recouped its losses and climbed to new highs, driven by persistent fundamental factors such as high energy prices, a hesitant Bank of Japan, and a hawkish Federal Reserve.Consequently, the 2024 experience serves as a cautionary precedent, suggesting that while unilateral intervention can trigger significant immediate volatility, it struggles to sustain long-term currency strength without a shift in broader economic conditions or support from Washington.Will we see a similar reaction this time around as the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to hold the high ground? Let us take a look at the technical picture.The Daily Chart: A Monumental Rejection at 160.00 On the daily timeframe, the narrative is dominated by the massive "blow-off" top and the subsequent rejection of the 160.00 level.For weeks, the 160.00 mark acted as the proverbial line in the sand, and the price action suggests that the market simply flew too close to the sun.The daily candle following the peak is a stark reminder of the "intervention risk" that has been looming over this pair. We have seen a break back below the short-term 50-day MA (black line) at 158.58 and 100-day MA at 157.28 (yellow line).More importantly, the pair is testing the resolve of the 157.89 horizontal support level.The RSI on the daily has sharply retreated from overbought territory, suggesting that the parabolic move has been neutralized.However, the long-term bullish trend remains technically intact as long as the pair holds above the major ascending trendline (currently sitting near 154.50) and the 200-day MA (blue line) far below at 154.00.USD/JPY Daily Chart, May 1, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) The H4 Chart: Consolidation Following the Crash Moving down to the H4 chart, we can see the sheer velocity of the move. The pair plummeted from 160.00 down to a low near 155.50 in a matter of candles. Since that "flash crash," we have seen a period of volatile consolidation.Currently, USD/JPY is sandwiched between the 156.27 support level and the 157.89 resistance level. The 50, 100, and 200 MAs are all beginning to cluster and point lower, acting as a ceiling for any immediate recovery attempts.The H4 RSI shows a "Bull" divergence signal recently formed near the lows, which explains the modest bounce we are seeing back toward 157.00.For the bears to regain full control, they need a clean break and close below 156.00.USD/JPY Four-Hour Chart, May 1, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) The H1 Chart: Intraday Tug-of-War The H1 chart highlights the immediate "ping-pong" price action. After the initial drop, the pair found support at 156.27 and has since been making a series of higher lows, but it is struggling to clear the 158.00 handle.Notice how the MAs on the H1 (50,100 and 200) have crossed over into a bearish alignment, with the price currently trading below the 50-period MA (158.01). This suggests that every "relief rally" is being met with fresh selling interest from traders who missed the initial move or those hedging against further BOJ (Bank of Japan) surprises.The Outlook and Key LevelsThe outlook for USD/JPY remains exceptionally clouded by fundamental intervention risk, which often overrides technical setups. However, looking at the levels:Resistance: The immediate hurdle is 157.89–158.00. A break back above this could see a retest of the 159.00 region, where the SMAs will likely offer stiff resistance.Support: To the downside, 156.27 is the immediate floor. A breach here opens the door for a move toward the 155.00 psychological level and the primary ascending trendline on the daily chart.USD/JPY One-Hour Chart, May 1, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) While the long-term trend is still technically bullish, the 160.00 rejection was a "shot across the bow." Traders should expect heightened volatility and "gap" risks. I am leaning toward a period of sideways consolidation as the market digests whether the BOJ is finished or if another leg of yen strength is imminent.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Markets are continuing their breakouts to ever-fresher highs, but short-term profit-taking seems to be ruining the partyThe Dow Jones could retake 50,000 in today's session barring no weekend-safety tradingExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US Stock Markets have been on a rampage after this week's earnings, and this trend is pushing Indexes to some new highs.Yesterday saw the return of traditional assets demand, sweeping everything on their way and taking the Dow Jones up 1,000 points in one session, propelled by Caterpillar and Eli Lilly.As the week concludes, the rally is now more broad based, with all US Indexes rising by similar percentages – Some signs of fatigue could be appearing, with some pullbacks from morning highs. Daily Stock Market Index Performance – May 1, 2026. Source: TradingView The only main concern that traders could see is the inability from Bulls to break the 50,000 level – If this level breaks in the afternoon session, this will bring with it further optimism signs for next week's action.Markets just received the US Manufacturing PMI report for April, and while it did not ease much, there are still concerns of the Index being driven by fears of supply droughts, hence pre-emptive orders all around the sector – The report came in at 52.7, the same as last month. Manufacturing PMI Data – MarketPulse Economic Calendar Overall, with the earnings season continuing to break records and the Federal Reserve reluctant to turn to hikes, the only catalyst left to bring Markets lower is the absence of solution between Iran and the US.The situation has been in a deadlock since the first round of talks failed, with the Ceasefire extension bringing back some life into dull Markets but no solution on the horizon.Crude Oil was falling off a cliff in early Morning trading but is not bouncing back higher, unable to break below $100 per barrel – Some concerns on that part, particularly with the price action looking more cloudy as the session continues. Crude Oil 1H Chart – May 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView The drop in Crude Oil after the announcement of a new Iranian proposal has now begun to reverse to the upside – For Stock Markets to continue to rally, a break of the $100 level will be mandatory (look at the 200-Hour MA).Let's dive right into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:FX picks up again! US Dollar tumbles after the ECB and BOE – EUR/USD, GBP/USD OverviewFragmentation within OPEC+: UEA exit signals structural shift in oil market dynamicsBitcoin's (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Struggling against resistance in a high-stakes consolidation phaseCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:09) – Source: TradingView – May 1, 2026 The Stock Market is now back into hesitant trading territory – Healthcare, traditional manufacturing sectors and Energy are lagging after the Manufacturing PMI small miss.Only a few names are doing the heavy lifting to pull Markets higher, including Apple, Oracle, Intel and Tesla.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – May 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView After wicking very close to 50,000, the Dow Jones is forming an intraday nasty looking double top.Sellers are taking control of the intraday momentum, so this could accelerate towards the late weekly session. A break of 49,750 could see further selling towards the 4H 50-period MA (49,300).Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsMorning highs 49,98049,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 Highs (rejecting)ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500All-Time Highs 50,544Support Levels4H 50-period MA (49,300)Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,200Momentum Support 48,500 (short-term bearish below)Pivotal Support at 48,000Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – May 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView Unlike the Dow Jones, Nasdaq hasn't formed any sign of bearish reversal, running towards the 28,000 level, sustained by huge performance from Apple and Intel.Check out reactions to the psychological level if the action manages to reach the level.Any rejection below 27,500 could see a swift retest of the 27,100 4H 50-period MA – Watch out as reversals tend to happen fast these days.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels28,000 Major psychological resistance (and channel highs)Daily highs 27,850Support Levels27,500 micro-resistance now pivotMomentum Pivot at 27,000 (4H 50-period MA)Mini-support 26,600 to 26,750Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300War Support 25,000 to 25,250Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – May 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 still evolves within its low-slope bull channel, and has now just tested its upper bound.Momentum still looks strong for the index, but reaching overbought levels, it will be interesting to see if the Index resists to the pressure seen in the DJIA.Above this, look for 7,300 – Rejecting here however hints at a test of the channel lower bound (7,150).S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMini-channel highs and daily top 7,260Potential resistance 7,300Support Levels7,100 psychological level and 4H 50-period MAPrior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the weekend to stay ahead of the curve, with investors still confused about US-Iran negotiations.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 30 Month-end trading sessions love to bring in a few elements of change and surprise, particularly after such bizarre trading in April.This week brought pivotal fundamental events across all types of Markets, from five major Central Banks reporting to the largest-cap US Stocks revealing their Q1 numbers, with broad beats all around.Overall, it seems that the former was the fuel and the latter the nitro, because global assets went on a drag race today.When the US-Iran war began at the end of February, Crude Oil exploded and with it, brought its waves of panic across all classes. The panic stemmed from fears of inflationary booms and supply droughts, which brought with them repricing of rate hikes by Global Central Banks, hikes that were priced to be delivered during this pivotal week.But the reality came as a boon for sentiment, with zero rate hikes and communications that were much closer to hesitation than to decision. While this doesn't necessarily mean that rate hikes are a thing of the past, the pauses at least allowed for a temporary Market celebration.The US Dollar took a hit today, allowing Metals, Stock Markets (particularly the Dow Jones), and other currencies to take a breather.The FX intervention from Japan's Ministry of Finance probably played a role in the Dollar selloff, but it certainly wasn't the only catalyst.Overnight, Crude prices bounced to new highs (for Brent, levels not seen since 2022) and very close to $120 for WTI. Luckily, this bounce did not last, as Energy commodities continue to trade in confusion.Physical Markets are still under heavy pressure, but Futures and other Market pricing tools continue to fade with every extreme move – A catastrophe incoming or the sign of exhausted traders?This is a question that will find its answer promptly – One that will either make or break Markets.What is certain, at least, is that the Strait of Hormuz is still not open, and that Iran wants the US to lift the damaging blockade before heading to the next round of talks. The Deadlock persists in the meantime. Read More:Metals shine bright after the FOMC meeting – Silver (XAG/USD) & Gold (XAU/USD) intraday outlookCentral banks edge toward rate hikes as energy shock revives inflation fearsDefensive rebalancing for Month-End, the trend resumes? – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Intraday OutlookFX picks up again! US Dollar tumbles after the ECB and BOE – EUR/USD, GBP/USD OverviewKey Earnings releases tomorrow (May 1) Earnings release for May 1, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, April 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today's Month-end, Dollar sale session brought life right back into assets that had been dawdling since at least the past week.On the top of the board, Silver and the Dow Jones point to industrial, more defensive assets making a return particularly after the brilliant month in higher beta tech assets.Next month should bring more mixed seasonals, not as bearish for the US Dollar. Hence, momentum and price action will dictate what's to come for Global Assets.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, April 30, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Talk about an FX session! The Ministry of Japan struck again and participants couldn't say that they did not warn about this.A fresh intervention brought USD/JPY down 2.30% from 160.70 (new 2026 highs) right back below 156.50 in a matter of a few hours, breaking all sorts of technical supports in between – The Yen is at the top of the FX Market and by quite a margin.With WTI Crude also turning lower and a seemingly disappointing ECB rate decision, both the Canadian Dollar and Euro took large hitsA look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. We are now past the largest volatility catalysts, but Traders still shouldn't be able to relax much.Rumors of targeted US Strikes this weekend could add further clouds on the fundamental outlook, and add to it key PMI reports for the US and Canada, and that should provide food for thought, if not chaos for Markets.JPY traders will also want to keep a close eye on the Japanese CPI release this evening to see if today's move can see further downside continuation.As always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Silver and Gold are bouncing higher again after the Federal Reserve and other Central bank meetingsWith Oil and the US Dollar stumbling on the session, Metals and other risk assets are shining brightIntraday timeframe analysis for XAG/USD and XAU/USD Silver and Gold are bouncing higher in today's session, with the bid taking traction in the wake of the Federal Reserve and a barrage of other global central bank meetings; With both Crude Oil and the US Dollar stumbling during today's session, precious metals and broader risk assets are shining bright again.For weeks if not months, metals have been trapped in a truly bizarre, choppy range. Despite numerous attempts, bulls have been completely unable to gather sustained upside momentum – This came along with a lack of real safe-haven demand, and the questioning on whether metals are still valuable at current valuations for flights towards quality. Yet, every sharp pullback has seen sharp response, preventing any clear technical downtrend. This erratic, sideways price action points to deep, fundamental confusion among institutional investors. Gold vs WTI Crude Inverse Correlation – Source: TradingView. April 30, 2026 This widespread Market confusion is quite logical. The macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop remains both uncertain and chaotic. High-stakes US-Iran diplomatic talks are completely stuck in the mud, with President Trump explicitly indicating that he does not mind maintaining the aggressive maritime blockade indefinitely to keep a relentless chokehold on the Iranian economy – Israel and Pakistan are also sending their own conflicting reports. Meanwhile, global central banks remain highly reluctant to change their defensive policy stances amid this unpredictable environment.As long as Crude Oil remains structurally elevated (above $80), precious metals—which are highly sensitive to the threat of stickier, energy-driven inflation and the resulting higher for longer rate pricing—will continue to face overhead pressure. However, it will be incredibly interesting to see how these assets react if the Middle East conflict actually reaches a proper diplomatic resolution.For now, the intraday rallies in Gold and Silver are almost entirely explicable on the broad-based drop in the US Dollar. If this Greenback weakness gains further structural traction, particularly if the conflict resolves, a clean, aggressive rally could easily follow. Bulls should have their eyes firmly set on some upside targets for longer-run breakouts, looking at the $4,900 level for Gold and $84 for Silver.Let's explore the recent shifts in an intraday timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to identify where are the key levels to watch for breakouts. Read More:Defensive rebalancing for Month-End, the trend resumes? – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Intraday OutlookFX picks up again! US Dollar tumbles after the ECB and BOE – EUR/USD, GBP/USD OverviewFragmentation within OPEC+: UEA exit signals structural shift in oil market dynamicsGold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart and levels Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, April 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView After bouncing from its $4,500 Support (near the 2025 December record), the price action is much less bearish but also not so bullish yet. This confirms with the neutral RSI.In such price action, it is favorable for traders to let prices form the trades:For bulls, wait for an extension above $4,700, breaking above the 50 and 200 Moving Averages (stop orders could be valid)Bears will want to see a reversal around current levels or rejecting the 50 MA ($4,685) with further acceleration below $4,485 (wait for a rejection of the MA before entering)Intraday Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):Resistance Levels:$4,685 - 4,700 4H 50 & 200 MA$4,850 to $4,900 Major Resistance (bullish above)$5,100 Pivotal Resistance$5,400 mini-resistanceSupport Levels:December 2025 Support $4,500 to $4,550 (bearish below)Pivotal Support $4,325 – $4,400Main Channel Lows Support $4,100Next Support $3,880 to $4,000Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart and levels Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart, April 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView Silver bulls have found strong support just above $70 and are testing the upper bound of the bear-channel.Not far above, the action will meet the 4H 200-period MA ($74.80). Extending above should relaunch odds of a continued bounce towards $84.Above $84, the action is back to in much more bullish territory.Rejecting between here and the 200-MA (~$74), bears will regain the upper hand and add to their chances to create a more meaningful correction in the metal.Breaking $61 should see heavy continuation to the downside.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):Resistance Levels:Pivot lows $74.50 - $75 (4H 200-period MA – bullish above)Pivot highs $79 - $79.50$84 Major levelKey Range Resistance $90 to $92$96.47 March highs (higher odds of All-time highs if break above)Current Record $121.67Support Levels:$70 - $72 Minor Support (recent bounce – Bearish below)December FOMC Minor Support $64 to $66$61.10 Past Session lows$50 to $55 October Resistance now Major SupportSilver's 2011 All-time highs $49.81 Safe Trades and good luck for next month!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The ECB is increasingly likely to raise interest rates in June if energy prices remain high and the Iran-related conflict continues.Inflation pressure is rising again, while euro-zone growth remains weak, creating a difficult stagflation-like dilemma for policymakers.The Bank of England is also moving toward possible rate hikes as higher oil prices threaten to keep inflation elevated. European Central Bank policymakers are increasingly likely to raise interest rates at their June meeting, unless energy prices ease or the conflict involving Iran shows clear signs of ending. Although no final decision has been made, officials appear to be moving toward a more hawkish stance as renewed pressure in oil and gas markets threatens to push inflation higher across the euro area.ECB President Christine Lagarde signaled that a rate increase will be seriously considered at the next meeting, after policymakers debated but ultimately rejected a hike this week. The deposit rate remains at 2%, but the central bank will receive updated economic projections in June, giving officials a clearer basis for deciding whether tighter policy is needed.Lagarde emphasized that the coming weeks will be crucial for assessing the economy and inflation outlook. She noted that the euro area is moving away from the ECB’s previous baseline scenario, though she avoided saying whether conditions are approaching the more adverse scenario outlined earlier this year.Inflation pressure collides with weak growthThe ECB faces a difficult policy dilemma. Headline inflation has risen to 3%, driven largely by higher energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions. At the same time, the euro-zone economy is showing signs of weakness, with first-quarter growth of only 0.1%. This combination has revived concerns about stagflation, even though Lagarde played down that risk.So far, ECB officials have not seen strong evidence of second-round effects, such as higher wages or broader price increases feeding through the economy. That has allowed the bank to avoid an immediate rate hike. However, if energy prices remain elevated and the conflict continues, the case for tighter monetary policy may become harder to resist.A sharper slowdown in economic activity could still persuade policymakers to delay action, but people familiar with the discussions suggest that this outcome is seen as unlikely. Financial markets are already pricing in several rate increases by the end of the year, although some economists believe the ECB may move more cautiously than investors expect. EURUSD, daily timeframe, source: TradingView Bank of England also shifts toward tighter policyThe Bank of England is facing a similar challenge. Its Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep rates unchanged, but several members indicated that they may support an increase soon if inflation risks continue to rise. Chief Economist Huw Pill even backed an immediate quarter-point hike, highlighting growing concern inside the central bank. GBPUSD, daily timeframe, source: TradingView The UK central bank has moved away from relying on a single inflation forecast and instead presented several scenarios based on different paths for energy prices. In most of those scenarios, interest rates would need to rise. The most pessimistic case, in which oil prices remain near $130 a barrel, would see inflation peaking at 6.2% in early 2027 and could require a series of rate hikes. BoE has outlined 3 scenarios based on different energy price paths and inflation effects, source: Bloomberg Governor Andrew Bailey remains somewhat more cautious, arguing that weak economic conditions and tighter financial markets are already helping to restrain inflation. Still, he acknowledged that prolonged disruption to energy supplies would create serious risks for the economy.Geopolitics becomes the key variableThe central issue for both the ECB and the Bank of England is that inflation is being driven less by domestic demand and more by geopolitical and structural shocks. This makes the usual central-bank toolkit harder to apply. Raising interest rates can dampen demand, but it cannot directly increase energy supply or resolve conflict in the Middle East. For that reason, the duration of the Iran-related crisis has become one of the most important variables for monetary policy. If tensions ease and energy markets stabilize, central banks may have room to wait. If the conflict persists and oil and gas prices remain high, rate hikes in June could become the most likely response.The coming weeks will therefore be decisive. Central banks in Frankfurt and London are not yet committing to immediate tightening, but their message has clearly changed: inflation risks are rising again, and policymakers are preparing to act if geopolitical conditions fail to improve. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Verbal intervention triggered a sharp reversal: USD/JPY hit 160.73 before a “final warning” from Japan’s FX official sparked a 0.9% drop, with the yen posting its strongest daily gain since mid-March.Key technical levels in focus: Immediate supports lie at 159.05, 158.60 (50-day MA), and 157.50, while resistance remains at 160.45, 160.74, and 161.16.Policy risk could drive next move: Upcoming ECB and BoE decisions may influence USD/JPY direction, with any hawkish tone potentially reinforcing downside pressure following intervention fears. This is a follow-up analysis on the prior report, “Chart alert: USD/JPY breaches above 160 (21-month high), ignoring intervention risk”, published earlier on Thursday, 30 April 2026, during the Asian session.The USD/JPY has pushed higher to hit an intraday high of 160.73 today at 2.15 pm mark (Singapore time) that surpassed above the previous “intervention zone’ of 160.23/45.Interestingly, at around 3:45 p.m. (Singapore time), the Japanese Vice Finance Minister in charge of FX affairs, Atsushi Mimura, issued a stern warning as quoted and translated: “Let me say this as my final advisory if you want to escape.” A clear shot to speculators that a “red line” is fast approaching for actual intervention in the FX market.The USD/JPY tumbled by 0.9% from 160.73 intraday high to trade at a current level of 159.37 at this time of writing. On a daily basis, the Japanese yen has strengthened by 0.7% against the US dollar so far, its strongest daily gain since 19 March 2026.Below are the key intraday technical levels to watch Fig. 1: USD/JPY minor trend as of 30 Apr 2026 London session (Source: TradingView). Fig. 2: USD/JPY medium-term trend as of 30 Apr 2026 London session (Source: TradingView). Supports:159.05 (ex-post BoJ’s monetary policy meeting low on 28 April 2026)158.60 (also the 50-day moving average)157.50 (19 March 2026 low & congestion area from 9 February 2026/10 March 2025) (see Fig. 2).Resistances:160.45 (pivotal), 160.74, and 161.16 (see Fig. 1).The next fundamental events that may have an impact on the USD/JPY will be the ECB and BoE monetary policy meetings in the next one to two hours.Standing pat is expected on both ECB and BoE policy interest rates, but any hawkish monetary policy guidance may see a further slide in the USD/JPY.That’s indeed a “sly final verbal warning” FX intervention conducted by Japanese authorities. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global MarketsAfter a very confusing week, Traders looking for certainty could not find what they wanted with the FOMC Rate DecisionGeopolitics remain cloudy and risk assets are not able to withstand the fundamentals, pushing Oil to $110 and higher for longer rates Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.After an incredibly confusing start to the week, traders desperately searching for a lifeline of macroeconomic certainty found absolutely no comfort in today's highly anticipated FOMC policy decision.Taking a step back, Stock Investors (particularly in tech) aren't seemingly so concerned about these themes, but some fundamentals are still confusing and could be a factor in the return of broader Market anxiety. Nasdaq Daily Chart. April 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Federal Reserve officially held its benchmark overnight rate steady in the 3.50%–3.75% range.In what marks Jerome Powell’s final FOMC press conference, the outgoing Chair is currently at the podium and announced that he would stay at the Board of Governors for the time that Kevin Warsh gets comfortable with his new role.The committee offered zero forward guidance regarding the timing of future moves, explicitly citing the heightened, compounding uncertainty stemming from the ongoing Middle East developments.While Powell noted that job gains remain low on average, the broader unemployment rate is little changed, creating a highly resilient economic backdrop, with Employment demand also easing throughout the last year.The Chair is hinting at the increasingly conflicting mandates of sticky inflation and a tight labor market, but one thing is crystal clear for traders searching for clues: rate cuts are absolutely not on the agenda as long as the Economy grows. And Powell made quite a few mentions on that page.With the current Fed Chair exiting the stage, market doves looking for an easing lifeline will now be forced to lean entirely on Kevin Warsh's future promises and expected political bias to price in any type of dovish movement.The Macro context The broader macroeconomic picture is still warped by an intensely cloudy geopolitical landscape. Risk assets are quite resilient, withstanding these toxic fundamentals reflected by WTI Crude Oil pushing back up to the $110 handle.The logistical nightmare in the Middle East is showing zero signs of easing.The US naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz continues, and President Trump just doubled down on his maximum pressure campaign, stating firmly today that he "will not lift the naval blockade without a deal on the nuclear program."So essentially, the blockade should hold until Iran economically chokes out from their Oil gluts and are forced to come back to the negotiation table. Oil 2H Chart. April 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView Despite these glaring fundamental and geopolitical roadblocks, US stock markets miraculously remain at historic highs.Investors are operating in an ever-more ecstatic state of expectation, relying on the tech sector to mask the underlying macroeconomic panic.However, with valuations stretched to the absolute limit and the peace trade stalled near all-time highs, Wall Street is walking on thin ice.Any negative surprise from this point forward could trigger a brutal, market-wide hangover – At least, the FOMC did not bring the negative catalyst that it could have triggered.Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap. Read More:April FOMC US Index Levels for Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500Bank of Canada neutral hold (2.25%) – USD/CAD rallies to 1.37 – Press Conference coming upChart alert: Silver (XAG/USD) rout extends below $75.90 key intraday resistance, bearish trend intactNorth-American Indices Performance North American Top Indices performance in the past 10 days – April 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView Only Nasdaq is withstanding the rallies in Crude Oil while European, Canadian and Japanese Markets are having a tough time – They remain close to their all-time highs, so that gives space for movement in the event of a turn lowerDollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index 4H Chart, April 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is still effectively stuck within its 98.00 to 99.30 Range with the fundamental and geopolitical foundations not changing.Expect this range to hold, particularly if the US-Iran situation doesn't change until then.Look out for ranges in mean-reverting price action in FX.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels99.16 4H 200-period MA99.30 to 99.50 Resistance100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highsWar Highs 100.544 (Double Top)Support Levels98.50 to 98.70 War Pivot and 4H 50-period MA98.00 Major SupportSupport 97.40 to 97.602025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors USD vs other Majors since last Monday, April 29, 2026 - Source: TradingView The USD recovered quite well from its previous week's losses, particularly against currencies with lower Central Bank yields including the JPY, NZD and CHF.The action is still mixed after the FOMC, but the path remains tilted to the upside, as the mean-reversion higher continues.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors CAD vs other Majors, April 29, 2026 - Source: TradingView. The CAD continues to rebound against its Major FX peers, sustained by the elevated WTI Crude prices, exploding orders for its Heavy Crude and solid communications from Governor Macklem this morning.Loonie strength should maintain as long as Crude Oil remains above $70 per barrel.To learn more, check out our post-Bank of Canada USD/CAD analysis!US and Canada Economic Calendar to next Wednesday US and Canadian Data towards next Wednesday, MarketPulse Economic Calendar The North American calendar continues to provide content for CAD and USD traders, with Canadian and US GDP coming up tomorrow morning.For the rest, PMI figures will be the main Macro figures for traders to assess the effect of recent wartime economic activity.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. 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