The Fed just cut rates by 25 bps – Neutral tone (neither dovish or hawkish)It was largely expected and the Fed doesn't like to surprise Markets, so they tend to follow pricing closely (or send out a message through Nick TImiraos just before in case they had a last-minute change of mind).You can get access to the detailed report right here:Breaking News: US Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 bps, bringing target range to 3.50 - 3.75%There has been extra mentions of a US labor market getting weaker, but the Fed still made balanced remarks on their dual mandate, implying that they are still concerned with inflation.The dot plot suggests between 50 to 75 bps of cutting throughout 2026, less than what the Market priced ahead of the meeting, so this might hurt risk-assets a bit.The US Dollar is getting rejected however so the immediate buying can be sustained for a bit.Still, Stocks (particularly the Dow Jones), Bitcoin, and commodities (Gold, Silver, Oil) are rallying after the decision. Bonds are retreating from their spikes however, so interest rate markets are not as optimistic about this cut.Keep in mind that things are still subject to a lot of change as Powell will soon appear.You can get access to his live speech right here.Let's dive into an outlook of the Market and watch the few charts from the Summary of Economic Projections.Market Reactions zoom_out_map Market Outlook with the S&P 500, Oil, 10-Year Bonds, Gold, Bitcoin and the USD Economic Projections – Very positive for the economy zoom_out_map Economic projections of Federal Reserve Members for 2026 and forward – Source: Federal Reserve You can get access to the Economic Projections right here. Very interesting report.Dot Plot zoom_out_map Fed's Dot Plot – Source: Federal Reserve The plot is scattered throughout, but overall, it seems that the Fed sees 3.00% to 3.25% rates by the end of 2026.Some members seem to express that rates should stay here.Get ready for Powell as things may move very erratically! Watch for comments on Inflation and Employment.Things will move even more as Markets learn more on the only Fed's concern: Employment, NFP releases on December 16.Safe Trades and Good luck for Powell!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Fed Federal Funds Rate (December 2025): 3.50-3.75% vs 3.50-3.75% expected, meets consensus In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. Federal Reserve FOMC Statement, December 10th 2025 Breaking: The Federal Reserve has voted to cut rates by 25 basis points in its December 2025 decision, bringing the policy rate target range to 3.50% - 4.75%, meeting market expectations.Key takeaway: Representing the third consecutive cut made by the Federal Reserve, a decision to cut in today’s vote shows a shifting of priorities away from controlling inflation, and instead focuses on improving an otherwise softening US labour market. US interest rates are now at their lowest level since 2022. Three policy makers dissented to the decision, with two voting to maintain rates, and one other voting for a 50 basis point cut.Market Reaction: zoom_out_map US dollar (DXY), Gold (XAU/USD) & S&P 500 (SPX500USD), D1, OANDA & TVC, TradingView, 19:24 10/12/2025 In the minutes that followed the release:The US dollar (DXY) fell in value by -0.31%Gold bullion (XAU/USD) rallied by +0.62%The S&P 500 (SPX500USD) rallied by +0.15%US Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 bps, cites weakening labour conditions as justification While today’s decision meets broader market expectations of a 25 basis point cut, it’s important to remember how contested this vote was supposed to be - at least on paper.Having cut rates in October, markets originally predicted another would follow in December, until Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Vice Chair Jefferson made some hawkish comments a week or so later, which saw rate cut probabilities drop to around 60%.Since, however, it would seem that there is no shortage of dovish commentary from Fed policymakers, vindicated by a rising unemployment rate and a slowdown in job additions to the US economy, which left the rate cut probability at over 80% going into today’s decision. zoom_out_map CME FedWatch, 10/12/2025 (post December meeting) Looking ahead to January’s decision, markets now expect rates to be maintained, but as we’ve seen since October, nothing is set in stone. Read Elior’s coverage on the latest FOMC meeting: The Fed cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.75% – Market Reactions Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Less than two hours to the December FOMC!Time is ticking before the FOMC meeting, and volatility has stayed remarkably contained in Stocks—a stark contrast to the Oil market, which saw its price battered again in today's session.Still, the Dow Jones is outperforming its peers, so traders are expecting a positive outlook for the Industrial index – Watch out for bad surprises!What is certain is that things should start moving heavily towards the afternoon. With today's FOMC meeting also releasing the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)—including the famous "Dot Plot"—expect a wave of repricing as traders scramble to explore the different scenarios for 2026, particularly given the ongoing doubts about future decisions in a complex political and economic landscape. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market – Source: TradingView The current setup is optimistic: since NY Fed President Williams' dovish comments, most indexes have rallied strongly and are approaching this event close to their All-Time Highs. However, elevated valuations leave little room for error.We will give out a few scenarios before providing charts and technical levels for all the major US Indexes. Keep in mind that the scenarios may be incorrect as things tend to get really chaotic during such events.And even after initial reactions, you can still expect levels and trends to change throughout the event. Put on your volatility shoes and get ready to see a lot of movement. Read More:Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) levels for the FOMCUS Curve outlook: Why US Treasury yields are surging before the FedFOMC Meeting Preview: How the FOMC's December Dot Plot Will Affect the US Dollar (DXY) zoom_out_map US Main Indices Daily Outlook. December 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Scenarios for the FOMC – To be taken with a pinch of salt Keep in mind that the scenarios may be incorrect as things tend to get really chaotic during such events.The Bullish Case – A dovish cut Odds for this scenario are not too high but still a possibility.The Fed cuts rates by 25 bps and also maintain future rate cuts expectations high by making less mentions of tariffs and inflation to focus more on the Labor picture.Stocks race higher, particularly debt-heavy sectors like Industrials, which may take the Dow Jones to outperform.Expect All-time highs across all names and a much lower US Dollar. The balanced Case – No cut but dovish communications The Fed holds rates to current levels but hint at cuts in 2026 as tariff-led inflation confirms to not increase.Powell makes mentions of a weakening Labor market, implying cuts throughout 2026 as tariff-led inflation becomes more clear. Expect stocks to selloff initially before rallying to their recent highs – This scenario will also put a LOT of emphasis on future CPI data.The bearish case – The Fed cuts but signal less cuts in 2026 The Fed cuts but shows less intent to cut in 2026, with communications on a "Risk-Management" cut as labor markets shows some weakness but is still far from bad.Dot plots point to less needs for cuts in 2026 which will trigger fears in a very optimistically-priced Stock Market.Later data, particularly if it comes weaker, should add back cuts in the curve and lead to a rebound in the Market. But some pain may come first in such a scenario.Stock Indexes Charts and Trading LevelsDow Jones zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 8H Chart – December 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 48,459Psychological resistance at 48,000 +/- 100 pts (immediate test)Weekly highs 48,131Support LevelsKey Pivot zone 47,500 - 47,650 (Recent bounce)Higher timeframe Support 47,000 to 47,20046,000 +/- 300pts Key SupportAugust highs and November Lows 45,71545,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)Nasdaq zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 8H Chart – December 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levelsintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (recent highs)All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)Support LevelsMajor Pivot 25,500 +/- 75 ptsSupport 25,000 to 25,25024,500 Main support and Pivot (recent rebound)October and November lows just below 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 8H Chart – December 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,930 (current All Time-Highs)Weekly highs 6,896 Resistance 6,850 to 6,880 (testing)ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930Support Levels6,800 Psychological PivotSupport 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 506,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)6,400 psychological supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Recovers, Broader Challenges Remain Most Read: FOMC Meeting Preview: How the FOMC's December Dot Plot Will Affect the US Dollar (DXY)The Nikkei index finished higher on Tuesday, overcoming an initial slump thanks to strong gains from chip-related companies. Three of the five biggest contributors to the index's rise were semiconductor firms, with the chip-making tool maker Tokyo Electron leading the way, following a positive performance by their US counterparts overnight. The Nikkei index ultimately added 0.1% to close the day slightly higher, while the broader Topix index ended flat.Japanese stocks started the day cautiously because investors are waiting for the US Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday. Although a cut in US interest rates is widely anticipated, the future direction of the Fed's monetary policy is uncertain due to disagreements among board members.Meanwhile, MSCI Inc.'s global equities index saw a small decrease of 0.1%.The MSCI index of emerging Asia equities experienced a significant decline on Tuesday, falling by 0.7%. This was the single largest drop this index has seen in over two weeks. In contrast, the index that tracks the value of currencies in emerging markets remained unchanged.RBA Holds Rates, Cites Inflation Concerns In its final meeting of 2025, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided unanimously to keep its main interest rate (cash rate) unchanged at 3.6%, which was expected by the market and marks the third meeting in a row without a change. This keeps the cost of borrowing money at its lowest level since April 2023.The central bank acknowledged that inflation has dropped significantly since its peak in 2022, but they noted a recent slight increase in prices. Although some of this recent rise seems temporary, the RBA sees early signs of more widespread and long-lasting price pressures that need close attention. Regarding jobs, the RBA said the market is "a little tight" where unemployment is going up slightly and job creation is slowing, but overall unused capacity remains low, and businesses are still having trouble finding workers.Given the uncertain outlook both in Australia and globally, especially concerning how much the current low interest rate setting is actually limiting growth, the board warned that stronger-than-expected spending by the private sector could put further strain on the economy if it continues. Because of all these mixed signals, policymakers decided to be cautious and wait for more data before making any new changes to the interest rate.European Session - Marginal Gains in Early Trade European stock markets saw a small increase on Tuesday, with both the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 indices rising by almost 0.2%, bouncing back slightly after a quiet day on Monday.Traders were generally cautious and avoided making big moves while waiting for the US. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which is due tomorrow. Markets also reacted to news that US President Trump will allow Nvidia to ship its advanced H200 AI chips to "approved customers" in China.Defense company stocks were notable gainers, including Hensoldt, Rheinmetall, and BAE Systems, after reports suggested German lawmakers are set to approve a record €52 billion worth of military spending next week. Renewable energy stocks were also up, with Orsted gaining after a US federal judge reportedly found President Trump's proposed ban on wind energy to be illegal.However, offsetting these gains was a sharp drop of over 13% in the stock of Thyssenkrupp, which finished at the bottom of the STOXX 600 after forecasting a significant loss of up to €800 million for the year 2026On the FX front, the Australian dollar got stronger after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) chose to keep its interest rates steady, a decision that had been widely expected. The Australian currency rose by 0.2% as markets waited for the US Federal Reserve's important meeting later this week, especially since the RBA warned that a recent rise in inflation might continue.Meanwhile, the Japanese yen also gained ground in Asian trading following a strong 7.5-magnitude earthquake in Japan's northeast, which made investors cautious before the expected decisions from the US Fed and other central banks. Also helping the yen was strong interest in an auction of five-year Japanese government bonds.The overall US dollar index remained mostly unchanged.Separately, the euro stabilized after European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel suggested that the ECB's next move might be to raise interest rates, not cut them as some people expect, though she clarified that a move would not happen very soon.The British pound and the New Zealand dollar also both saw small gainsCurrency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices fell slightly on Tuesday, adding to the 2% drop seen the day before. Markets are currently keeping a close watch on several factors: the ongoing peace talks aimed at ending the war between Russia and Ukraine; worries about having too much oil supply available globally; and the important upcoming decision on US interest rates.Specifically, Brent crude oil futures fell by 7 cents (0.1%) to trade at 62.42 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by 13 cents (0.2%) to trade at 58.75 per barrel.Gold prices declined slightly on Tuesday. While investors have largely already factored in the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, they are now focused on what might happen next.Specifically, they are looking for any hints that the central bank might choose to reduce rates more slowly than anticipated, a strategy called a "gentler-than-expected easing cycle." This repositioning by investors is happening just ahead of the start of the Fed's two-day policy meeting later today.As of the latest update, the price of immediate gold delivery (spot gold) was down 0.3% at 4,174.91/oz, and US gold futures for December delivery were down 0.4% at 4,202.70/oz.Read More:Classic pre-FOMC trading – North American session Market Wrap for December 8AUD/USD: Major bullish breakout of Aussie ahead of RBAWTI Rangebound: How Stalled Peace Talks & OPEC Strategy Will Shape the Oil MarketEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session will be quiet today with a lack of high impact data releases. We will hear comments from both ECB and BoE policymakers which could stoke some volatility.The US session will also be a bit slow from a data perspective with Jolts job opening numbers the only high impact release ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow.There is a probability that markets may remain rangebound and cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting. Lack of commitment by market participants as uncertainty remains a key concern. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has failed to hold above the 100-day MA.At present the FTSE is hovering around the 100-day MA but does appear at risk of further downside.The current malaise could also be down to concerns around the implications of the Federal Reserve rate decision tomorrow.Immediate support rests at 9610, 9550 and 9450 respectively.A move higher may encounter some resistance at 9687, 9720 and 9850.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, December 9. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 8Today's session was victim of classic pre-FOMC trading:Volatile but low magnitude moves due to some traders cutting their positions at the last minuteSome assets and/or currencies just seem dead.There hasn't been much data to help volatility today and the same can be said tomorrow.In terms of economics, the Trump Administration seems to be moving towards a new TACO with tariffs on Canadian fertilizers.But more importantly for Stocks, particularly Nvidia, the US just pulled the restrictions on H200 Chips, essential for AI Models.On Ukraine, Zelenskyy communicated some positive words about recent Europe-Ukraine talks in London, but the market still awaits further developments. Read More:FOMC Meeting Preview: How the FOMC's December Dot Plot Will Affect the US Dollar (DXY)Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) Technical Analysis – AI Leaders Outlook Part 3Technical Analysis of Google and Microsoft Stocks – AI Leaders Outlook part 2Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView Everything got pulled by the mean-reversion move in the US Dollar – The Greenback is the only asset higher on the session.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, December 8 – Source: OANDA Labs Very low volatility in FX Markets, but an interesting move in the US Dollar has materialized:The Dollar Index still respects its high timeframe range – Check out our recent analysis of the Greenback right here.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The evening session offers some interesting developments for AUD traders:A high-expectations RBA Rate Decision (11:30 p.M. ET) will be on the watch with the latest round of high-inflation data released for Australia.Traders will be watching closely for communications on potential hikes! Cuts will surely be out of the way for now. Interesting developments there.The current Cash Rate is at 3.60% and no change is expected.Tomorrow's session (Tuesday) is packed with high-tier US labor data and European rhetoric.The early morning session will feature ECB's Nagel (04:00 A.M. ET) and BoJ Governor Ueda (05:00 A.M. ET) speeches. Any commentary on inflation or global growth will move the Euro and Yen.The North American Session will be dominated by labor market health checks:ADP Employment Change (09:15 A.M. ET): This report is a key measure of the private sector labor market. The previous official report showed private employment unexpectedly declined, making this release a crucial indicator of current hiring trends.JOLTS Job Openings (11:00 A.M. ET): This reading of job vacancies provides a measure of labor demand and tightness. Consensus is expected around 7.2 million.The evening will however be the most important:China CPI and PPI (09:30 P.M. ET): This is a high-impact release for global markets and AUD/NZD. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) releases will confirm whether China is successfully battling deflation (PPI) while maintaining stable consumer price growth (CPI).Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on December 10, 2025, is a highly important final decision of the year that will determine the immediate direction of interest rates and set expectations for next year's monetary policy. This event is unusually difficult to predict because the policymakers are facing conflicting economic reports such as a softening job market versus still-elevated inflation and are significantly divided over what action to take.In short, it is the year's last major rate decision, and the mixed signals and internal disagreements among the committee members make the outcome exceptionally unpredictable.Interest Rate Probabilities Ahead of FOMC zoom_out_map Source: LSEG Navigating Without a Compass The importance of the December 2025 decision is made much harder by the fact that the Federal Reserve (the Fed) is essentially flying blind right now. The Fed usually bases its decisions on the latest government data about jobs and inflation, but a recent six-week government shutdown has completely stopped the publication of these key statistics. Because of this, the FOMC is meeting on December 10th without any official government inflation or jobs data since September.The Fed have been forced to rely on unofficial, "private" reports, like the recent ADP report which showed a worrying loss of 32,000 jobs. If this private data is accurate, the Fed needs to cut rates immediately to avoid a recession, but if the private data is wrong, cutting rates could cause inflation to surge again.Data Void and Release Dates zoom_out_map Source: LSEG This lack of data forces the Fed to confront the two parts of its mission: keeping prices stable (low inflation) and supporting maximum employment (low unemployment) which are now in direct conflict.On the one hand, the labor market is showing dangerous cracks. While the unemployment rate is currently 4.4%, the speed at which it's rising is setting off a major recession warning signal, known as the "Sahm Rule." This situation argues for an immediate rate cut to prevent a potential "hard landing" recession. On the other hand, the fight against inflation is not over.Inflation, as measured by the Fed's preferred index, is stuck at 2.8%, which is almost a full percentage point above their 2.0% target. Cutting rates now could cause inflation to rebound, especially with the potential for new government spending and tariffs. Because they lack the recent data to settle this argument, the December meeting has become a battle between policymakers' opposing fears: the "doves" worry more about a recession, while the "hawks" worry more about runaway inflation.The Decision Matrix: Potential Scenarios Despite the economic confusion, the majority of market participants expect the FOMC to make a "safety cut" of 25 basis points (a quarter of a percent). The logic is that this small cut is an insurance policy against the job market completely collapsing, but it's not so large that it fully gives up the fight against inflation.However, this market consensus hides a major disagreement within the Committee itself. Analysts predict a historically high number of dissenting votes (policymakers who vote against the decision), which would signal to investors that Chair Powell has lost control of the policy message and would introduce a lot of uncertainty for the following year.The "Dot Plot" BattlefieldThe real fight isn't just about the current rate cut, but about the communication of future interest rates. This is shown in the "Dot Plot" , a chart that shows where each Fed member expects the interest rate to be in 2026 and beyond. The market is currently expecting the Fed to cut rates roughly four times in 2026, which would send the stock market soaring (the Bull Case). But some forecasters predict the Dot Plot will show a median expectation of only two cuts for 2026. This would be a "hawkish cut" meaning the Fed cuts now but signals they are nearly done which would severely disappoint the market and could lead to a drop in stock prices.The "Powell Put" vs. The "Trump Call"The political dimension of this meeting cannot be overstated. With the transition of power looming in January 2026, the Federal Reserve is under intense scrutiny. President-elect Trump has advocated for lower rates to offset his proposed tariff regime. Powell must navigate the optics of appearing politically independent.If he cuts aggressively, he risks accusations of juicing the economy for the incoming administration or bowing to political pressure.If he holds, he risks accusations of sabotaging the economic handover. This political shadow suggests Powell will likely opt for the middle path: a 25bps cut (to satisfy the growth mandate) coupled with stern language about data dependence (to satisfy the inflation mandate).Market Implications: The US Dollar and Global FX The Dollar's DilemmaThe US Dollar (DXY) is currently caught between cyclical weakness and structural strength. Seasonally, December is a weak month for the Greenback. However, the medium-term outlook is dominated by the concept of divergence.The Bear Case for USD: The Fed cuts rates, acknowledging a slowing US economy. The yield advantage that the Dollar enjoys over the Euro and Yen erodes. Simultaneously, the uncertainty regarding the next Fed Chair potentially the dovish Kevin Hassett leads markets to price in a "lower for longer" regime. This pushes EUR/USD back toward 1.15.The Bull Case for USD (The Disappointment Trade): This is the more nuanced risk. The market is pricing in aggressive cuts for 2026. If the Fed's Dot Plot pushes back, signaling "patience," yields at the short end of the US curve (2-year Treasury) will spike. This would catch Dollar bears offside, triggering a short squeeze that rallies the DXY.Furthermore, if the US economy continues to grow at 2% while the Eurozone stagnates, the "US Exceptionalism" trade remains the dominant force, putting a floor under the Dollar.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, December 8, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.Com (click image to enlarge). Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Welcome to the follow-up piece to our individual Stock Market leaders analysis.Apart from the tragic news of a severe earthquake in Japan, there hasn’t been much to affect Markets ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC Rate Decision.Stock Indexes have on a muted, red note, sending out profit-taking vibes into the Market. The same could be said for most actively traded assets – The calm before the FOMC storm; a great occasion to dive into individual Stock names.Towards the end of last week, we published two in-depth analyses for the four leaders of the Stock Market rally: Meta, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google.If you missed them, you can get access right here: Read More: AI Leaders Outlook: Technical Analysis of Meta and Nvidia StocksTechnical Analysis of Google and Microsoft Stocks – AI Leaders Outlook part 2 zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap (11:02 A.M.) – A red wave – December 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView With no crazy speeches or data releases expected before, the path should not be too chaotic before Wednesday.We will now turn into Weekly and intraday charts for Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) to conclude our pre-FOMC Stock analysis.Apple (AAPL) – Holding strong but at key headwindsWeekly Chart zoom_out_map Apple Weekly Stock Chart. December 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView Apple (AAPL) Forward Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio – 32.00 ~ High but historical for the firmApple is showing the example once again, consistently running higher and shows relatively restrained corrections when the stock does correct.Running within a 5-year upward channel, the tech giant has consistently increased its earnings and made a strong push to new all-time highs just last week ($288).Nevertheless, investors and traders will have to be cautious about the reactions to the quintessential upper-bound of the Channel: The week has opened on a slight lower gap in the Stock which may prompt some profit-taking all the way to the $260 Pivot Zone, depending on risk-appetite after the FOMC.The Weekly RSI also seems to be turning the other way.Let's take a closer look.8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Apple 8H Stock Chart. December 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView After attaining new all-time highs last Wednesday, Apple has been subject to a not-so crazy profit-taking wave.Now coming at a retest of the October highs, positive reactions can be expected which may only materialize after Wednesday.In case the correction extends further however, some short-term dip-buying areas could include $270 (August Channel lower bound), $266 (8H MA 50) and $255 (Previous ATH Pivot lows).Any weekly candle that closes below the area however could trigger further, higher timeframe mean reversion in the title. Keep an eye on sentiment as always, particularly as we move towards 2026.Apple (AAPL) Technical levels of Interest:Resistance Levels$280 to $288 All-time High Resistance$288.62 Current All-Time Highs$295 to $305 Fib-Induced potential ResistanceSupport Levels$260 previous ATH Major PivotAugust 2024 Pivotal Support $230$200 Post-Liberation Day Range and Channel Lows$200 to $210 Early 2025 peak$170 Liberation Day Lows2022 and 2023 lows between $80 to $100Amazon (AMZN) – A mean reversal lowerWeekly Chart zoom_out_map Amazon (AMZN) Weekly Stock Chart. December 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView Amazon (AMZN) Forward Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio – 28.50 ~ Regressing from current elevated levelsAmazon remains a staple in the US Market, consistently increasing its revenues throughout the years. This year hasn't missed the trend.Nevertheless, the $258.60 record reached in beginning November has preceded a strong move lower.Not the first name that pops into investors' minds when they think of AI, Amazon Web Services (AWS) leverages the new technologies extensively . The firm's huge investments into AI-related infrastructure could be one of the reasons why it has corrected, amid a general doubt on how sustainable this boom is: The immense spending reduces the amount of Cash Flows reported. Strong cash positions are traditionally a reason for Amazon to outperform its peers.Let's take a closer look.8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Amazon (AMZN) 8H Stock Chart. December 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView The outlook for Amazon is one to look to get a general idea of American consumption trends – And the picture isn't so great.A leader of consumer sales and tech services, Amazon has began a new corrective move after its end-November rebound.Evolving within a low-slope Channel, the conditions for the Stock are more rangebound – Not such a worrying sign.RSI is turning lower after crossing back above neutral, which leaves sellers in short-term control – Buyers will want to watch if the current move lower will see a bottom at the 200-Period Moving Average ($214.84).A Daily close below points at further downside in the Stock – A minima test of the $200 Support. A bigger move from there will warrant further analysis.Amazon (AMZN) Technical levels of Interest:Resistance LevelsNovember 2025 $255 to $260 Highs$258.60 current ATH$240 February 2025 ResistanceSupport Levels$220 to $230 Pivot Zone (Acting as immediate support)$200 Psychological Support$160 to $170 Liberation Day Support$200 to $210 Early 2025 peak$161.38 Liberation Day lows$81.69 2023 LowsSafe Trades and a successful FOMC Week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Welcome to the follow-up piece to our individual Stock Market leaders analysis.Yesterday's analysis took a close look at two names that have had a pretty volatile performance in the past week: Nvidia and Meta.Get access to the analysis right here:Read More: AI Leaders Outlook: Technical Analysis of Meta and Nvidia StocksToday's Index action was more volatile than yesterday, with bulls pushing to an early morning surge before mean reversion flows stepped in, leading to a sharp slowdown in momentum. zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap (14:17 A.M.) – December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView The current lack of conviction may be partially due to traders being preoccupied with the World Cup Qualifier event, which is pulling volatility out of the market.In any case, there will be only two and a half trading sessions before the December 9th-10th FOMC rate decision, and after such volatile runs, expect things to settle down as institutions prepare for the week ahead.Let's dive right into Weekly and intraday charts analyses for the two remaining tech giants: Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet, more widely known as Google (GOOG). Read More:Loonie rallies after Canada adds 54,000 jobs in major employment beatMarkets Weekly Outlook - FOMC Rate Cut Countdown, Economic Projections May Hold the KeyUS stocks hesitant rally: Markets pass the Core PCE and U-of-Mich data barMicrosoft (MSFT) – The picture isn't prettyWeekly Chart zoom_out_map Microsoft Weekly Stock Chart. December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Microsoft's Forward Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio – 32.50 ~ Highs but historic for the firmMicrosoft had been invincible since its 2023 $213.44 lows, but as momentum for AI and Tech spending slowed down, the leader turned into one of the most targeted stock for profit-taking.Victim of some pessimistic news at the beginning of the week, the stock gapped lower before coming back timidly.This is creating a balanced picture throughout which can lead to some surprising breakouts (either to the upside or the downside).The Weekly RSI is tilting more bearish however, so the higher timeframe isn't looking so great.Let's see what the intraday timeframe has for us.8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Microsoft 8H Stock Chart. December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking closer, the stock is evolving in a downward channel.Still, the action is seeing a counter-trend bullish move which will have to push further to close the week above.Momentum is hesitant to say the least; most recent candles have been dojis so MSFT traders might just be awaiting a catalyst to move forward, maybe the FOMC or some better news.In the bigger picture, two key levels will be coming into play for Microsoft trading:For bulls, they will be looking to push for a daily close above the $494 Weekly highs, which infers a breakout of the downward channel.A close below $475 implies a break of the counter-up trend which would continue the downward momentum.The next support will be found between $455 to $465 – Close to the November lowsMicrosoft Technical levels of Interest:Resistance Levels$540 to $555 All-time Highs ResistanceMid-Year range resistance $510 to $520Weekly Highs for Bulls to breach $493.44Current All-time Highs $795.71Support LevelsRecent Support $580 to $600 – Watch reactions if it breaks$581.25 November lows2024 & Liberation Day Major Support $450 to $4902021 Highs $382.00August 2023 Key Rebound Zone $272.70Google – Pulling the Market higherWeekly Chart zoom_out_map Google Weekly Stock Chart. December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Google's Forward Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio – 28.70 ~ Far from extremeGoogle is the stock of this late AI-rally, going exponential since crossing back above its early 2025 record in September.Not seeing any considerable retracement since, the progress higher has been flawless.If you think about it, Alphabet is positioned to capture benefits from AI:Gemini 3 was a revolutionary update, they already have their in-house AI chips production in place, and are already making benefits compared to most of its competitors in these fields.Momentum is going a bit ballistic however, which tends to be a great thing for stocks but can also be met with sharp corrections during any selloff.Remember that overbought, doesn't always rhyme with imminent tops – A costly lesson during equity bull-markets.8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Google 8H Stock Chart. December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Short-timeframe momentum seems to be slowing down after a long while and thorough breakouts for the firm.A failed breakout above its upward channel may point to a retest of lower levels. With its momentum still flawless for now, the retracement should not be too consequent.Expect some small-dip buying at $300 at a retest of the Gap, and in the situation of a bigger retracement, $280 to $290 looks like an ideal entry point for the Market leader.If we do get there, keep an eye on what flows and news lead the selloff. A healthy retracement wouldn't hurt the stock but at the same time, traders will be cautious of any correction these days.Google Technical levels of Interest:Resistance Levels$320 to $330 All-time Resistance (currently testing)$328.67 Current ATHFib-Induced Potential resistance and Psychological Level $350Support Levels$300 psychological level and gap-up mini supportHigh-timeframe pivot $270 to $290 acting as support$250 Support$200 to $210 Early 2025 peakLiberation Day Support $140 to $1502022 and 2023 lows between $80 to $100Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (05/12/2025): In today's episode, Christian, Nick, and podcast host Jonny Hart discuss the latest in central bank monetary policy expectations, including the RBA, BoE, and Fed, alongside the recent PCE numbers released earlier today. Otherwise, Nick sheds some light on the continued unwinding of the yen carry trade and further implications for precious metals. Join OANDA Financial Writer Christian Norman, Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Week in review: Markets Buoyed Ahead of FOMC Meeting The week draws to a close with risk assets largely buoyed by the prospect of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.On Friday, the main US stock market indexes all moved slightly higher. The Dow Jones gained 236.46 points (a 0.49% rise), the S&P 500 increased by 31.44 points (a 0.46% gain), and the Nasdaq rose by 131.27 points (a 0.56% increase).Read More: US Dollar Index (DXY) Slips as Rate Cut Bets Remain Unchanged Post US PCE and University of Michigan DataLooking ahead to next week, Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to have a significant debate: should they lower interest rates, or keep them steady? The core issue is that while prices remain difficult to control (stubborn inflation) and the job market is still surprisingly strong (resilient), some Fed members are hesitant to cut rates.Other employment-related data still does not suggest a quick slowdown in hiring, which gives those who prioritize fighting inflation (the "hawks") a stronger argument. Despite this internal debate, investors in the market still anticipate that the Fed will go ahead and cut rates by another quarter-point sometime by June 2026. zoom_out_map Source: CME FedWatch Tool Heading into the decision, Wall Street indexes are all near all-time highs with the hope that the Federal Reserve meeting will serve as a catalyst for fresh all-time highs to be printed. Will such a move materialize?How Did the US Dollar and FX Perform? The US dollar was slightly weaker on Friday but generally stayed within its recent trading range against other major currencies.The dollar's strength index (DXY) dipped 0.2%, landing at 98.906, which is close to its weakest point in the past five weeks.Meanwhile, the euro gained slightly, reaching 1.1651 against the dollar.The Japanese yen remained mostly unchanged on Friday at 155.15 per dollar, taking a pause after recent days of strength driven by speculation that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might raise its interest rates later this month. Reports from both Bloomberg and Reuters suggested that BOJ officials are indeed prepared to raise rates on December 19th unless there is a significant unexpected economic event.The Canadian dollar strengthened by the most in six months against its US counterpart on Friday and bond yields jumped, as stronger-than-expected domestic jobs data boosted bets the Bank of Canada would begin raising interest rates next year.Finally, the British pound (Sterling) also rose 0.2%, trading at 1.335 and nearing its highest level in six weeks.Read More:WTI Rangebound: How Stalled Peace Talks & OPEC Strategy Will Shape the Oil MarketGold (XAU/USD) Price Reclaims $4200/oz Handle. Are Bulls Ready for a Test of $4300/oz?The Week Ahead - Fed in Focus, RBA & BoC Rate Decisions Ahead The week ahead will see market focus on the Federal Reserve rate decision. There is also rate decisions from Canada and Australia but given the stature of the US economy and its ability to affect overall market sentiment, the RBA and BoC decisions will likely be overshadowed.Asia Pacific MarketsThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to keep its main interest rate unchanged at 3.6% next Tuesday. Since recent reports showed that both inflation and economic growth were stronger than expected, it's now much less likely that the RBA will cut interest rates again. This suggests that the central bank might be finished with its current cycle of lowering rates.China's trade activity is expected to grow only moderately. Although the recent trade agreement and reduced tariffs from the U.S. should help Chinese exports, the way the numbers are calculated (base effects) will keep the growth rate low. For November, I forecast exports to grow by 3.3% and imports by 3.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of about $100.3 billion.Separately, China’s inflation rate is predicted to continue its recovery, rising to 0.5% for the year, which is a positive sign after it recently moved back above zero. This is largely because the falling price of food is no longer dragging down the overall inflation number, and the prices of non-food items are starting to rise. While inflation remains quite low, it is important to prevent a sustained period of falling prices (deflation) to keep long-term spending and investment healthy. Since inflation is still low, it will likely not be a major factor in the People's Bank of China's interest rate decisions.FOMC to Steal the ShowThe Federal Reserve (US) is expected to cut its interest rate by $0.25\%$ this Wednesday. While some worry that new tariffs could keep prices high (inflation), the main reason for the cut is the growing concern about the weakness in the job market, which important Fed members have recently noted. Along with the decision, the Fed will release new predictions, which are likely to suggest only one more rate cut in 2026.However, this long-term outlook might not significantly affect the market's expectations which currently price in two or three cuts for 2026 because the composition of the Fed's voting committee and leadership (including the Chair, Jerome Powell) could change drastically under the new administration.Separately, Canada is likely to take a break from its recent series of interest rate cuts this Wednesday. Stronger-than-expected recent growth and employment figures support this pause, though we still anticipate one final cut early in 2026 due to ongoing trade risks with the US.Finally, for the UK, I expect to see an improvement in the monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on Friday. The previous drop in September was mainly because a cyberattack stopped production at a major car company, but since that production has restarted, October's GDP numbers should bounce back. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. GMT time (click to enlarge) Chart of the Week - US Dollar Index This week's Chart of the week is the US Dollar Index (DXY)From a technical perspective, the DXY has had a change in structure having taken out the November 14 swing low around the 99.00 handle.Thursdays daily candle closed as a hammer offering bulls some hope. However, as has been the case of late any attempt at a bullish move has been met by swift selling pressure.The period-14 RSI remains below the 50 mark which is a sign of bearish momentum.Immediate support is provided by the 100-day MA which rests at the 98.58 before the 98.00 and 97.70 handles come into focus.Upside resistance may be found at the 200-day MA around 99.51 before the 100.00 psychological level and the 100.61 level come into focus.The Dollar Index trajectory may depend on the economic projections for 2026. Any sign that the Fed see more than one rate cut in 2026 could send the DXY sliding with a test of the YTD low a possibility depending on how dovish the Fed outlook is.Alternatively, a hawkish stance could have the opposite impact. This would be similar to what we witnessed after the previous Fed meeting in October.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart - October 17, 2025 zoom_out_map Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) Be Nimble and Trade Safe.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

UK gilt yields may rise toward 6%, reflecting mounting fiscal strain and investor concernsPersistent outflows from UK equity funds signal weak confidence despite temporary market calmCommodities and mining stocks support the FTSE, contrasting with broader economic instability The British economy is facing serious fiscal challenges that are increasing tensions in the bond market and may affect the pound’s exchange rate. Despite the government’s declarations about maintaining budget balance, experts warn that the tax increases announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves are too dispersed to meaningfully strengthen public finances and ease pressure on debt markets.A prospect of 6% yieldsDavid Zahn of Franklin Templeton forecasts that the yield on 30-year UK government bonds could reach 6%, highlighting the government’s difficulties in financing rising expenditures. The current spread between UK and German bonds of the same maturity stands at 176 basis points, and 78 basis points relative to France, placing the UK among the most expensive developed countries in which to borrow. zoom_out_map Yield on 30-year UK bonds and spread between UK, German, and French bonds, source: TradingView Zahn, who sold all his UK bonds back in March, believes that only a further rise in debt-servicing costs will force the government into genuine fiscal adjustment. As he puts it: “Eventually yields will be so high that the government won’t be able to sweep the problem under the carpet any longer.”Questionable revenue and political riskAlthough Reeves has pledged to increase the “fiscal buffer” and avoided the most controversial tax hikes (such as taxes on pension withdrawals or capital gains), rating agencies and think tanks doubt the long-term stability of the plan. zoom_out_map Fund Flow Index, source: Calastone November also saw the second-worst outflow from UK equity funds in history—investors withdrew £3 billion, reflecting market tensions ahead of the budget announcement. Only after the budget was published did the outflows stop, suggesting investors feared radical changes that ultimately were not introduced.GBP: Short-term relief, long-term risksThe pound has recently appreciated against a weakening dollar, and the bond market calmed after the budget release. However, by the end of the European session, GBP/USD met resistance at the 200-period SMA, which also aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline seen between September and November this year. Structural issues within the UK economy—high debt levels, low growth, and weak investment sentiment—remain unresolved. zoom_out_map Daily timeframe of GBPUSD, source: TradingView Meanwhile, investors continue to avoid UK funds—only one month out of the last 55 saw a net inflow of capital. The government is attempting to stimulate the market through measures such as tax incentives for new listed companies and changes to the ISA system to encourage equity investment.Strong commodities and decorrelation in the energy marketAgainst the backdrop of fiscal problems, the commodities sector remains the one bright spot in the UK market—copper and gold prices are hitting records, supporting mining companies’ valuations. The FTSE 100 owes much of its strength to the rising weight of mining stocks in the index. The energy sector (FTSE 350 Energy) has also seen gains recently despite falling oil prices, likely driven by high dividends and share buyback programmes. However, investors should be aware that valuations may not hold if the geopolitical situation improves—for instance, if peace is achieved in Ukraine. Today the index recorded losses of more than 1.76%. zoom_out_map FTSE 350 Energy index compared to Brent crude prices, source: TradingView The UK is at a turning point. A relatively strong currency and buoyant commodities sector contrast sharply with deep concerns over the stability of public finances. The prospect of rising bond yields and tax uncertainty may, in the coming months, once again increase the government’s financing costs and weaken investor confidence in the pound and UK assets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Equities have gone into yet another spectacular run but after delivering a strong open, they start to show some hesitancy.As the Bureau of Labor Statistics reopened, traders were initially concerned that the first public US data releases wouldn't be supportive of a December Fed cut—a worry that partially fueled the mid-October to end-November struggle. However, since NY Fed President Williams appeared with a dovish speech that reset expectations, things have been back to normal, almost as if nothing happened the past two months.The rebound has been massive: The Dow Jones is trading close to 48,000, the S&P 500 came shy from 6,900, and the Nasdaq is less than 2% from its all-time highs after a mid-month 9% correction. zoom_out_map US Data this morning – December 5, 2025 – Source: MarketPulse Economic Calendar The bullish narrative found further strength today: an as-expected Core PCE release (the Fed's preferred gauge) combined with encouraging inflation expectations from the University of Michigan report and Tuesday's ADP Labor miss not only support the 25 bps cut and even further cut pricing into 2026. zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap (11:07 A.M.) – December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Elevated equity levels require such rate accommodation to maintain their performance, particularly at this point in the cycle where tech and growth firms need lower financing rates to sustain high Capital Expenditure for AI infrastructure.Enough economic talks; Some small profit-taking at the highs is currently ongoing, so let's dive into the Indexes intraday charts for Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 as they look to conclude yet another green week. Read More:Loonie rallies after Canada adds 54,000 jobs in major employment beatMarkets Today: Asian & European Shares Mixed as German Factory Orders Rise. US PCE Data Remains the FocusAI Leaders Outlook: Technical Analysis of Meta and Nvidia StocksDaily Outlook for Major US Indexes zoom_out_map US Main Indices Daily Outlook. December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 8H Chart – December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView After a huge open taking the index to new Monthly highs (48,131), some sellers appear to defend the 48,000 level.With the strictly positive week, traders haven't taken a break from the buying and it seems that as such flows start to lose some steam as can be seen with the descending RSI.They are locking in some profits as next week's pivotal FOMC approaches.Keep an eye on the 48,000 level:A close below indicates further caution after such a swift move higher and may indicate selling action ahead of the FOMC.Any selling flow should maintain above the 47,000 psychological level, except for any sudden fundamental change.Above the key level, optimism stays at its peak and this sentiment should drag all the way to the Fed Meeting.Dow Jones technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 48,459Psychological resistance at 48,000 +/- 100 pts (immediate test)Session highs 48,131Support LevelsKey Pivot zone 47,500 - 47,650Higher timeframe Support 47,000 to 47,20046,000 +/- 300pts Immediate SupportTuesday Lows 45,92545,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)Nasdaq 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 8H Chart – December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq has held an even-stricter bullish momentum this week, forming a bull channel that solidly acted as support on most pullbacks.Similarly as in the Dow, Sellers are appearing around the last resistance before the all-time highs, attempting a break at the Market open but seeing some intermediate rejection.The RSI is holding strong, not showing any detail of what to expect here but some key levels are coming into play around here:Breaking the daily highs (25,833) and closing above maintains the track to a test of the all-time highs ahead of the FOMCRejecting and closing below would test the lower bound of the upward channel (25,500) which coincides with the Major Momentum Pivot.Breaking lower should still see rangebound action with the 25,000 Support acting as a key barrier.It would be a rare event to see a huge breakdown with no data expected before Wednesday's event. Still, keep an eye on Magnificent 7 Stocks in case anything happens there (like Nvidia, or Meta which haven't had the most bullish cases)Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levelsintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (immediate test)Session highs 25,833All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)Support LevelsMajor Pivot 25,500 +/- 75 ptsSupport 25,000 to 25,25024,500 Main support and Pivot (recent rebound)October lows 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 8H Chart, December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Even after a strictly positive week for the S&P 500, it seems that the broader environment is starting to look more like a big consolidation rather than a full regaining of the bull-trend.Failing to breach 6,900, sellers may just appear to take the upper hand on the short-run.Still, psychological levels will be essential for the Index:6,850, the lower bound of the mid-term resistance, will be a level to hold to avoid further mean-reversion.Any close above 6,900 points to a quick test of the all-time highsA rejection below 6,800 should still see support at the 6,750 level, accompanied by the 50-period MA.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,930 (current All Time-Highs)Session highs 6,896Current Resistance 6,850 to 6,880 (testing)ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930Support Levels6,800 Psychological PivotSupport 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 506,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)6,400 psychological supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Despite a rough monthly open, the US Dollar is currently trading within a key technical range, a factor that holds FX Markets firmly in balance despite some individual breakouts seen in pairs like NZD/USD or GBP/USD.As is often the case ahead of pivotal events like the FOMC, the Dollar may test relative extremes, but it rarely poses definitive breakout situations.The best example of this was ahead of the September Fed Meeting, where the Dollar rushed to make new lows but was inevitably constrained by the bounds of its previous yearly support zones.The catalyst for the current downside came from NY Fed President John Williams' speech on November 21, which fundamentally shook markets by reintroducing rate cut hopes. His dovish comments took the 25 basis point cut pricing from 20% all the way to the current stable 87%. This rapid repricing triggered a swift selloff in the Dollar over the past two weeks of trading. zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 8H Chart. December 4, 2025– Source: TradingView But, as mentioned in our recent in-depth analysis of the Greenback, the Dollar Index is still maintaining a broad range on the bigger picture, having tested its 200-period Moving Average (and range lows) and currently bouncing above 99.00.The range highs on the Dollar Index is located at the 100.00 level.Today, we will look at three key FX Majors and their intraday timeframes to see how the range in the Dollar Index affects their own currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/CHF, and USD/CAD. Read More:AI Leaders Outlook: Technical Analysis of Meta and Nvidia StocksSanta Claus Rally Strategy: How to Trade the S&P 500's Most Reliable Seasonal PatternUSD/JPY drops below 155.00: Has the 2025 yearly top been reached?EUR/USD 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map EUR/USD 8H Chart. December 4, 2025– Source: TradingView As mentioned in our November 25 post (On the US Dollar rejecting its range highs), EUR/USD is maintaining a wide Range between 1.15 to 1.17.As often, the range gets confirmed with:Rejection of price after reaching overbought/oversold levels in the RSIFlatlining Moving Averages, particularly the MA 200Currently rejecting its highs, the current setup is one of a sell with a potential stop at range extremes (Above 1.17).Sellers are currently pushing below the 200-period Moving Average (1.16455), the rejection confirms with a 1H Close below. Levels of interest for EUR/USD TradingResistance levels1.1630 to 1.1670 Pivot zone (range Highs)1.1750 mini-resistanceResistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)Sep 2021 Highs – Resistance 1.19 to 1.1950 ZoneWeekly highs 1.1656Support levels1.1470 to 1.15 range support4H MA 200 Mini-support 1.161901.1475 to 1.15 Support Zone1.1350 to 1.14 SupportSession lows 1.14966USD/CAD 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map USD/CAD 8H Chart. December 4, 2025– Source: TradingView The rangebound characteristics of USD/CAD are less obvious, but taking a step back, the North American pair has stopped trending since reaching its November and cycle highs.Holding firmly between 1.39 and 1.40, the currency pair has been seesawing within the 1,000 pip range since the final days of November.With traders not knowing what to do with the US-Canada deal (it seems like the Canadian government also doesn't know), rangebound conditions also make fundamental sense.In the case of a break, watch for a daily close above or below to avoid getting trapped.Note to traders that news on a trade-deal might move things in a flash.Levels of interest for USD/CAD TradingResistance Levels1.40 Major Pivot acting as resistanceCycle highs 1.4143 and Double topResistance between 1.4120 to 1.4145Key resistance 1.4250Support Levels1.39 to 1.3925 Higher timeframe pivot, current support1.38 Major support +/- 150 pipsAugust range support 1.37501.3550 Main 2025 SupportUSD/CHF 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map USD/CHF 8H Chart. December 4, 2025– Source: TradingView USD/CHF is also stuck within two ranges – A large half-year range between 0.7850 to 0.8140 and another, smaller one but more active: 0.80 to 0.81We will focus on the smaller timeframe consolidation, also 1,000 pip large.Buyers are stepping in from the 0.80 Zone after bouncing on the 200-period Moving Average (1.79930).The current candle is strong, with the ongoing rebound in the USD. Check out reactions at the highs of the range.Levels of interest for USD/CHF TradingResistance levels0.8075 to 0.81 Range highs0.81244 November highsMain resistance 0.8150 to 0.820.82144 June HighsSupport levels0.80 Range Lows, Higher timeframe Pivot0.7950 Higher timeframe Support0.78575 2025 lows supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 3The central theme of today’s session is once again, the only subject of concern for Markets (and for the right reasons): next week’s FOMC Meeting – 5 more sessions to go!The 85%+ pricing for a 25 bps cut had been subject to volatility, but this morning’s ADP miss largely anchors it at elevated levels.With ISM Services producing a beat (52.6 vs. 52.2 exp), but Prices Paid regressing, almost nothing stands in the way of a Fed cut, with tariff-led inflationary pressures remaining contained.This helped cryptocurrencies to stay around the highs reached yesterday amid their ongoing rebound, but most importantly, allowed stock indexes to perform in yet another huge day. The session was particularly fruitful for Industrials and Small Caps, with the Dow up 1% at the session close and the Russell 2000 up 1.80%. zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap (Session close) – December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView An almost perfect mirror of yesterday's session!The DJIA closed the session very near the 48,000 level.Even the Nasdaq, which had been selling off earlier due to a Microsoft scare, was brought higher by the strictly positive inflows in the afternoon.In other Markets, Gold initially gained momentum in the session but gave up most of its gains in the afternoon, while other precious metals remained muted.Copper, on the other hand, is reaching some 6-month highs in COMEX and new Highs in London as closed mines, tariffs, and low exchange supply continue to underpin prices. Read More:Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView Global assets have been subject to quite some wild swings, with some resilience in Risk-Assets.Bitcoin stayed elevated as it consolidates its prices around $90,000, the Dow beat all other major stock Indexes and the US Dollar took another hit.A classic debasement trade day.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, December 3 – Source: OANDA Labs Today was all about US dollar weakness, dragging the Loonie to its depths and as the same time, pushing all currencies, particularly the Europeans bouncing higher – With GBP on top.Check out our recent analysis for GBP/USD right here!A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The evening session will provide Trade Data for Australia, very important for the Aussie – The Australian economy is a large exporter.The early morning session shall see the release of EU Retail Sales at 5:00 A.M. with a small beat (+0.1% M/M) expected.But the real show will start in the US, once again fairly early with the Challenger Jobs Cut at 7:30 A.M. – Keep a note on this one as it was quite a mover last month.An hour later, public Jobless Claims data will also be in the center of attention. The past releases haven't corroborated with the trend seen in ADP, so it'll be an interesting watch.At 10:00 A.M, CAD traders will welcome the Ivey PMI data which looks to shed some light as the Loonie gets dragged lower once again.Don't forget the several Central Bank speakers including Fed's Bowman – However, don't expect comments on Monetary Policy as the Blackout stands all the way to next Wednesday.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

North American stock markets largely recovered, particularly Tech, turning what was a scary correction into a small retracement since last week. Most Indices now hover close to their all-time highs, with the Nasdaq remaining the furthest from its peak, down a measly 2.30% from its end-October record.The December 10 FOMC cut is now a quasi-certainty, with a few bouts of lower data since last Thursday beginning to set the stage for another cut in January (currently priced at 27%). zoom_out_map Pricing for January 28 2026 FOMC meeting – Source: FedWatch Tool Private employment has sent a warning of regressing employment numbers since early November, as seen with ADP's new weekly series throughout last month. Numbers from this morning’s monthly report, which connects to the Challenger Layoffs report that shook markets last month, are also notable – By the way, the next Challenger report is due tomorrow.Concerns over this weakening private labor sector are justified, as Jerome Powell based the Fed's first cut in September 2024 (from 5.50% to 5%) on this exact premise.To complement the data, inflationary pressures appear to be easing: the ISM Prices Paid data is regressing (though it remains high), and Import prices are unchanged from this morning’s releases (September data, but still positive news).Adding a political layer to the Fed debate, President Trump verbally called for the nomination of NEC Director Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair. Wall Street is seemingly uneasy about this choice, but looking at the Market today, things are far from priced in.Trump is famous for judging his own performance by looking at the Stock Market, so he might take some time to think about this one.On the northern border, Canadian data has started to show more upside after a strong rebound in their Q3 GDP, and this morning’s Labor Productivity report came in better than expected.While Canadian PMIs are still telling another story, the land of maple syrup is at least sending signs of life – Could the CAD make a comeback in 2026? Read More:Nasdaq Index Outlook: Microsoft (MSFT) scares Markets despite strong Services PMI reportBitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Alert: Bitcoin Breaks Major Resistance - Next Stop $100,000?GBP/USD reaches 1.33, on top as ADP Employment Miss sends the dollar in a limboNorth-American Indices Performance zoom_out_map North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView Most North American Indexes are up between 3% and 5% while the US Dollar is down 1.50% – This is a textbook example of what happens when Dovish Monetary policy gets priced in. Keep note!Dollar Index 8H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index 8H Chart, December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar took a huge hit this week after staying resilient throughout last week's Fed Cut repricing.It seems that there is quite a lag between the moment a cut prices back and actual movement in the Greenback. Still, other dynamics like the Next Fed Chair are also playing their part in this week's movement.For now, the range mentioned in our recent in-depth analysis still holds, but could crack lower if weak data persists. Things will materialize on Friday after the Core PCE report.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance zone100.376 November highsTop of channel and psychological level at 101.0099.60 to 99.80 mini-resistance now pivotSupport LevelsHigher timeframe Pivot 98.80 to 99.00 (testing lower bound)Weekly lows 98.82 and 8H MA 200Mini-support 98.50Main support 98.00August Range support 97.25 to 97.60US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map USD vs other Majors since last Monday, December 3, 2025 - Source: TradingView This chart shows well how individual pairs have been reacting since last week after Fed's Williams influential comments.Always keep an eye on his speeches!Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map CAD vs other Majors, December 3, 2025 - Source: TradingView. Another classic week for the Loonie: A bounce after Thursday's GDP data got met with some mean-reversion.The drops in the CAD are getting more limited as time goes but overall, it still remains sold on pops.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD zoom_out_map USD/CAD 8H Chart, December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView USD/CAD is correcting quite largely after reaching new cycle highs just two weeks ago.Now under its 8H 200-Period MA, the outlook for the pair is bearish but will have to break and close below the Higher timeframe pivot (1.3925) if bears want to retake full control.Levels of interest for USD/CAD:Resistance Levels1.40 Major Pivot acting as resistanceCycle highs 1.4143 and Double topResistance between 1.4120 to 1.4145Key resistance 1.4250Support Levels1.39 to 1.3925 Higher timeframe pivot, current support1.38 Major support +/- 150 pipsAugust range support 1.37501.3550 Main 2025 SupportUS and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week zoom_out_map US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar The rest of the week will be the final crucial data points towards Next week's rate decision.Thursday morning starts with Challenger Job Cuts which will be tracked closely due to their impact during the BLS shutdown. This gets followed immediately by the weekly Initial Jobless Claims (08:30 A.M. ET). Markets will be looking for any cracks in employment trends that could sway the Fed's tone. CAD traders also get a look at business activity with the Ivey PMI at 10:00 A.M. ET.Friday, however, is the main event:The spotlight will be entirely on the Core PCE Price Index (08:30 A.M. ET), the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.With the consensus holding steady at 2.9% YoY, any surprise here will directly dictate the market's pricing for next week's interest rate decision.Simultaneously, CAD traders face their biggest release of the month: the Net Change in Employment and Unemployment Rate. Expectations are flat (0K jobs added), so any major deviation could spark significant volatility for the Loonie.The week wraps up with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations at 10:00 A.M. ET.Crucial Note: Apart from these final data points, the calendar is effectively clear. There won't be anything of significance until the FOMC meeting next Wednesday, making Friday's close critical for positioning.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Price Reclaims $4200/oz Handle. Are Bulls Ready for a Test of $4300/oz?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has successfully rebounded, passing the important $93,000 price point that many market participants have been watching. This comeback is seen as a necessary relief rally, pushing Bitcoin's price up to $93,007.12, which marks a 6.6% increase in just the last 24 hours.After several weeks of falling prices, this price reversal seems strong and is supported by three main factors working together: significant changes in global economic policies (macroeconomic policy shifts), the fact that large investment firms can now easily buy and sell Bitcoin (unprecedented institutional distribution access), and certain patterns on the price charts that suggested a bounce was due (highly compressed technical indicators). zoom_out_map Source: TradingView The Factors Influencing Bitcoins Recovery First, the US central bank (Federal Reserve) has officially ended its program of removing money from the economy (Quantitative Tightening or QT), which means they are now moving toward a policy that makes money more easily available (accommodating monetary policy). This boost in available money, or liquidity injection, has happened at the same time as a major shift in how large financial institutions view Bitcoin.Second, investment firm Vanguard, which manages $9 trillion, has made it easier for its clients to access Bitcoin through certain investment products (third-party crypto ETFs).Third, technical analysis suggests a huge move is coming. The price charts show that the price swings (volatility) have been at historic lows, a pattern that has always happened right before a massive, rapid price increase (parabolic price movements).While these factors suggest the price is heading strongly upward and could soon go above $100,000, there is an immediate risk: the market remains fragile.There is not enough trading volume right now (market depth has not fully recovered), meaning there isn't much liquidity. In this kind of environment, the market is highly prone to large, sudden price swings, making it very sensitive to any bad news or unexpected selling that forces traders to quickly close their positions (liquidation events).However, because the fundamental drivers such as money flowing from central banks and real demand from major financial institutions are so strong, experts believe this price momentum is likely to last and is more than just a temporary fluctuation.Institutional Demand Mechanics: The Distribution Revolution The money flowing from large investment firms into Bitcoin has made a significant turnaround, suggesting that a period where money was rapidly leaving the market is over. Investment products known as US spot Bitcoin ETFs have started seeing money flow back in (net inflows), reversing four straight weeks where over $4.3 billion had been pulled out. Although the first week's rebound was modest at about $70 million, this shift confirms that institutional money is actively returning to the market.This money is not just coming from one source. While BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF is recovering, major inflows went into funds managed by Fidelity ($77.5 million) and ARK 21Shares ($88 million), showing a broad return of interest across many institutional players. These ETFs now manage over $119 billion and hold 6.5% of all existing Bitcoin, making them a permanent and crucial source of demand.A huge structural change, dubbed the "Vanguard Effect," also boosted demand. Vanguard, one of the world's largest investment managers with up to $10 trillion in assets, started allowing its clients to buy crypto ETFs and mutual funds tied to Bitcoin and other digital assets (like ETH, XRP, and SOL) on its platform.This move created immediate and massive demand, causing Bitcoin's price to jump 6% right when the US market opened. On that first day, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF recorded about $1 billion in trading volume in the first half-hour alone. By making it easier for cautious, long-term investments, such as retirement and pension funds, to buy Bitcoin, Vanguard has permanently expanded the asset's reach, ensuring strong, sustained demand well into 2026.Technical Analysis - BTC/USD The confluence of positive structural and technical factors lends strong support to bullish forecasts heading into 2026.Looking at structure and the setup appears highly bullish, the path forward will likely be non-linear and volatile.The four-hour chart below has seen a shift in structure with price breaking above the previous swing high and resting on support at 91804.Resistance to the upside may be found at 95000 before the 97000 and 100000 handles come into focus.A potential pullback toward 90000 or the recent breakout at around the 86600 mark cannot be ruled out before the next leg higher.The primary immediate risks center on macroeconomic data surprises. Any unexpectedly high reading in the PCE Inflation Data or stronger-than-expected labor reports could quickly dampen December rate cut expectations, triggering a sharp reversal in the relief rally.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, December 3, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Falling to $4,205, down 0.63%, gold pricing has retraced from recent highs in today’s trading.Having recently painted new six-week highs, rallying from support at $4,056, downside in today’s session can be considered primarily technical profit-taking.While the fundamental footing for precious metals remains firm, recent US data, particularly in the US labour market, continues to add to the dovish narrative, bolstering metal pricing.What’s next for gold?Gold (XAU/USD): Key takeaways 02/12/2025 Fair to say, recent gold upside comes almost entirely from developments around the Federal Reserve, with commentary suggesting an increasingly dovish stance ahead of their December decisionParticularly regarding recent US labour data, made worse by a ninth consecutive decline in industrial activity confirmed in yesterday’s US Manufacturing PMI report, the case for rate cuts is growing, benefiting gold pricingOtherwise, the running for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, the likely installation of a more Trump-aligned candidate, and the associated expectations of rate cuts, are further boosting the current rally Read Elior’s coverage on the recent crypto downside: Crypto recovery: Dead Cat Bounce or the start of a Buy-the-Dip?Gold (XAU/USD): Dovish Fed tilt in ascendancy I usually write about precious metal markets once a week or so, and seven days ago, I mentioned that something of a ‘dovish U-turn’ was currently underway, offering a new lease of life to recent gold upside.Since then, not only has gold price continued to rise by over 2%, but the dovish narrative also appears to be expanding, owing to recent US economic data. This is no coincidence, of course - the two variables are inextricably linked.As ever, let’s dive into some of the macroeconomic themes, but fair warning: this is going to be Federal Reserve-heavy. zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) vs Silver (XAG/USD), D1, OANDA, TradingView, 02/12/2025 Gold (XAU/USD): Fundamental Analysis 02/12/2025Policymakers Daly and Waller further dovish Fed narrative: It seems like yesterday that I was not only writing, but also appearing on the Market Insights Podcast, commenting on the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates in October, with the obvious question being if a third consecutive cut would follow in December.While it would be fair to say that markets anticipate rate cuts to come, the speed at which their easing cycle would continue was, of course, the $1,000,000 question.And by most accounts, the answer was a resounding yes, with many expecting a third 25 basis point cut would conclude 2025, leaving the target rate at 3.50-3.75%, its lowest level since late 2022.Since then, however, a growing hawkish sentiment emerged from the Federal Reserve, with odds of a December rate cut falling to less than ~50%, in line with policymaker commentary.At the time, Powell had previously cautioned markets on the assumption that cuts would continue thick and fast, and it seemed the markets were starting to believe that the December decision would be his chance to stand his ground, especially with a handsome beat to consensus for September’s NFP.In hindsight, however, this was the peak of the hawkish narrative, with what’s happened since signifying one of the most contested periods of monetary policy stance that I can remember.What started with Fed Williams, who made some dovish commentary speaking at a central bank conference in Chile, has continued with further dovish remarks from Daly and Waller, who have both cited the labour market as a larger priority than inflation, at least for now, with the latter generally trending lower. zoom_out_map CME FedWatch, 02/12/2025 The result, as seen above, is a return to the same level of conviction seen directly after the October interest rate decision, with markets predicting an 89.0% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in December and rates remaining unchanged in January.While markets have seemingly come full circle on monetary policy expectations, the notion of lower interest rates directly benefits gold, which explains, in no small part, recent upside.US economic data to support rate cut notions PositivesThe most recent NFP reading, and the last report before the Fed’s December decision, showed jobs added for September handsomely surpassed expectations, at +119,000 vs +50,000 expected NegativesNFP numbers for both July and August were revised lower in the September report, with +33,000 less jobs added to the US economy than previously expected#NFP number for both July and August were historically low when compared to previous yearsUnemployment is rising, up 4.3% to 4.4% August to September The astute amongst you will realise that the negatives far outweigh the positives.While September’s result somewhat vindicated the previous hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, it appears that, over time, the markets have become less convinced about the US labour market, alongside key Fed policymakers.While it would be a challenging task to use three-month-old data in a decision to maintain rates, the real kicker is that inflation appears to be under control at 2.1%, removing the primary justification for rates being so historically high in the first place.As a personal aside, it’s interesting to see that, despite the most significant labour data remaining unchanged, markets have been able to carve two separate narratives, using the same data to support both a hawkish or dovish stance - myself included.With that said, nothing in the market is black and white, although the Fed’s opinion is the one that matters.As such, the current angle on the US labour market adds to expectations for lower rates in December, boosting gold pricing.Gold (XAU/USD): Technical Analysis 02/12/2025XAU/USD: Daily (D1) chart analysis: zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD), D1, OANDA, TradingView, 02/12/2025 While the above paints a rosy picture for gold, it would be remiss not to mention that price has fallen somewhat in today’s trading, likely owing to technical profit-taking, albeit having recovered losses from earlier in the session.I would be comfortable saying, however, that gold remains well supported both technically and fundamentally, with previous highs of $4,202 acting as the closest level of support.Otherwise, and to the upside, our previous target of $4,240 has been met, with the price forming a pin bar to represent resistance.To the upside, our next target is, of course, all-time highs; however, traders should be aware of the impending reduction in volatility due to the holiday season.Price targets and support/resistance levels: Resistance #1 - $4,240 - Previous support/resistancePrice target/Resistance #2 - $4,381 - All-time highsSupport #1 - $4,202 - Previous highSupport #2 - $4,056 - 20-Period SMASupport #3 - $4,000 - Key psychological levelSupport #4 - $3,889 - Swing low Read more about precious metals in today’s session: Silver (XAG/USD) is the sole performer, heading toward a new ATH Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 2Today marked another start to December trading, with Equities particularly relating to tech, and Cryptocurrencies leading Market performance and dragging sentiment to a more positive note.These two were subject to considerable rejection since mid-October as flows turned to risk-on yet more defensive, lower beta assets. This notably helped the Dow Jones to reach new records during the global risk-deleveraging last month.Now, Bitcoin rallied sharply back above $90,000 and Nasdaq is the best performer out of the three US Major Indexes – So, are things back like they were?Not entirely – Some bellwether stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) are still lagging, Meta has corrected substantially and the overall sentiment around the Tech-Semiconductor sectors remains one of caution.A bubble never pops when everyone expects it.Elsewhere, US President Trump made hints of National Economic Council Secretary Kevin Hassett being his favorite candidate for the Fed Chair.He will still be required to get voted in throughout the beginning of 2026 by the Senate. Read More:Silver (XAG/USD) is the sole performer, heading toward a new ATHCrypto recovery: Dead Cat Bounce or the start of a Buy-the-Dip?Dow Jones (DJIA) Outlook: Could the Christmas Spirit awaken?Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin really stole the show in today's session – You can see how risk-assets dominated today's session (excluding Oil, victim of its own dynamics).Gold has got rejected particularly harshly so this will be a development to follow in upcoming days.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, December 2 – Source: OANDA Labs Today's risk-on session spreaded to Currency Markets, serving the Antipodean currencies pretty well. On the other hand, the Yen dropped by similar margin to which it had appreciated yesterday.FX movement is still relatively subdued. Markets are hanging around their current levels in the waiting of Friday's US Core PCE release and even more importantly, next Wednesday's FOMC meeting.Expect some rangebound action all around in the meantime. And of course, never underestimate the releases until then.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The session is not over yet for AUD traders, who have the most significant domestic data release of the quarter on deck.The evening session will turn the eyes towards Australian GDP (Q3) at 19:30 ET. Growth is expected to tick up to 0.7% QoQ. A strong print here is essential to maintain the RBA's hawkish-hold stance; a miss could quickly price in earlier rate cuts. This is followed by China's Services PMI at 20:45 ET, providing a health check on the region's largest trading partner.Tomorrow's session (Wednesday) is packed with central bank rhetoric and critical US service-sector data.The early European session features final PMI readings and PPI data, but the real focus will be on the ECB. President Lagarde speaks twice (08:30 & 10:30 A.M. ET), flanked by Chief Economist Lane. The North American Session will likely drive the most volatility: The day starts with a potential shocker: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (08:15 A.M. ET). The consensus is set at a small +5K (down from 42K), which would signal a stall in private hiring just before the official NFP release and corroborate the weekly ADP readings.However, the main event is the ISM Services PMI at 10:00 A.M. ET. As the largest sector of the US economy, a reading near the consensus of 52.1 is expected. Traders should watch the Prices Paid index (previous 70) to see if service-sector inflation remains sticky.The evening wraps up with AUD Trade Balance (19:30 ET), keeping the Aussie dollar in play. Safe Trades and a successful December!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Our preceding analysis on Silver could not have been more wrong.With the FOMC approaching and bouts of up-and-down action across all metals, what we thought to be a temporary top leading to a potential range was, in fact, just a retracement. And that retracement was an opportunity not lost on Silver traders: a stark run during month-end trading took the precious metal to new record highs, grazing the $58.85 level.The dovish repricing for the Fed's December 10 Meeting—main catalyst of the renewed "everything-rally" (or Debasement Trade) seen throughout stocks in the past week—was fuel for a sharp rally across the entire metals complex. zoom_out_map Metals performance since November 2025 – Source: TradingView However, a distinct divergence has emerged in today's session. Gold, Platinum, and Copper have all rejected their recent highs established on Friday, correcting lower as traders book profits. It is a different story for Silver, which is showing remarkable relative strength, hanging less than 1% below its $58.85 record and running towards its retest.Will it keep rallying or is the move finally over? Let's dive into the charts to see if this breakout has legs. Read More:Crypto recovery: Dead Cat Bounce or the start of a Buy-the-Dip?Can Platinum catch up to Gold? Platinum (XPT/USD) Price ForecastThe US Dollar is lost in translation – Dollar Index (DXY) OutlookSilver (XAG/USD) Multi-timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map Silver Daily Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView The month-end action took Silver prices to a strong breakout after a month-and-half consolidation.A double top did form throughout the two tests of the preceding $55.00 record, however, double top doesn't mean instant bear market.On the other hand, it may have acted as a contrarian-fuel for higher prices as bearish positions accumulated before the month-end rally changed the plans.Back to current trading, bulls have brought the metal right back into its $58.00 to $60 Resistance Zone, precedingly obtained with Fibonacci Extensions (see explanation here).With the zone extending over a $2 range, there is space for trading but what traders should look is whether prices break and close above $60 on a daily session or if prices actually close below $58, indicating some rejection.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Silver 4H Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView The price action is getting tricky as buyer strength stands strong and prices are consolidating at the highs (typically bullish) but a 4H divergence is appearing.Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:Resistance Levels:Fibonacci-Extension Resistance $58.00 to $60December 1 All-Time Highs $56.85$53.50 to $54 current ATH resistancePotential resistance $62 to $65 (1.618 from Impulsive Move)Support Levels:$53.50 to $54 Previous ATH resistance now PivotMini-support $52.00 to $52.50$48.50 to $49.50 2011 High SupportOctober FOMC bottom $46.00 to $47.00$45.55 October 28 lows1H Chart zoom_out_map Silver 1H Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView The rangebound action is occuring much higher than last week – As higher momentum charts stand in overbought territory, short-term consolidation at the highs serve to reduce effect of overbought trading.An ongoing move might take on the record highs reached yesterday – For intraday analysis look at the 1H 50-period Moving Average, frequently used by buyers in this uptrend.Holding it provides entry points to join the rally, while breaking the Moving Averages gives signal of a short-term bearish reversal.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Cryptocurrencies are finally bouncing from their relative lows, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $90,000 level after bottoming near $80,500 on Friday, November 21.Traders are scared, and for good reason: elevated valuations and an ecstatic mood in early autumn had led to extreme positioning, which consequently triggered a cascade of liquidations and stops. The first major crack appeared shortly after Bitcoin reached its new record at $126,400 in mid-October, where a dark weekly closure led to a gigantic flash-crash. After that, the recovery was swift but proved temporary, materializing into a consistent, progressive selloff that dragged on all the way to the final week of November.Low volumes are now the norm in this scarred market, but with selling flows largely reducing, some bottoms may have finally formed. The question remains: Are the recent lows dips to buy or traps to avoid? zoom_out_map Current Session in Cryptos – Green throughout but some mid-day profit-taking – December 2, 2025 (12:01). Source: FInviz As mentioned in one of our previous crypto-selloff analyses, the answer depends entirely on your investment horizon and risk appetite. If you seek ideas on how to invest progressively without trying to catch a falling knife, I invite you to check this piece out.Market sentiment is still weak, but the daily session is a strong one. Ethereum is now hanging around $3,000 again, and Bitcoin is holding $90,000, recovering even after a terrible monthly open yesterday caused by MicroStrategy investor panic—likely fueled by fears over its collapsing premium and leverage sustainability.Let's access a few intraday charts and levels for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana so you can decide whether this is an opportunity or not.The Total Market Cap slowly recovers zoom_out_map Crypto Total Market Cap. December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin 8H Chart zoom_out_map Bitcoin (BTC) 8H Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin is still evolving within its descending channel but is bouncing from its lows, inducing some dip-buying recovery activity.Closing above the higher bound of the Pivot Zone ($92,000) would point to a test of the Channel's higher bound around $98,000.For a higher timeframe bull-momentum restart, a weekly close above $100,000 will be required.Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels:$90,000 to 93,000 major support turned PivotCurrent Weekly Lows $89,340$85,000 mid-term Support (+/- $1,500)$75,000 Key long-term supportResistance Levels:$90,000 to 93,000 major support turned Pivot$98,000 to $100,000 Main Support, now Pivot (MA 50 at $100,000)$102,000 Bear Channel HighsResistance at previous ATH $106,000 to $108,000Current ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000Ethereum 8H Chart zoom_out_map Ethereum (ETH) 8H Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Ethereum still has trouble to close above the $3,000 mark but is forming some better looking price action:The recent buying is occurring at the mid-line of the October descending channel, prompting more odds of a bullish breakout.Similarly as Bitcoin however, a close above its $3,000 to $3,200 Pivot will be required to allow for a return to a bullish mid-term bias in ETH.Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:$2,500 to $2,700 June Key Support (recent rebound)$2,620 Session and weekly Lows$2,100 June War support$1,385 to $1,750 2025 Support2025 Lows $1,384Resistance Levels:$3,000 to $3,200 Major momentum Pivot (Test of the $3,000)$3,500 (+/- $50) Resistance and Descending Channel highs$3,800 September lows$4,000 to Dec 2024 top Higher timeframe Resistance zone$4,950 Current new All-time highsSolana 8H Chart zoom_out_map Solana (SOL) 8H Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView The story repeats for Solana, but the harshly-rejected crypto is showing signs of life, breaking its past week's descending price action and testing the $140 level.Track how it performs within its descending channel: The $160 to $170 resistance level will be the hurdle to breach to relaunch bullish prospects for the third largest crypto.Levels to keep on your SOL Charts:Support Levels:Main Support $125 to $130 (Recent bounce)$110 to $115 SupportWeekly lows $123Support 3: $100 to $105Resistance Levels:$140 to $150 Major Pivot (testing)Channel highs and October Pivot resistance $165 to $170$180 to $190 ResistancePsychological level $200 to $205$253 Cycle highs Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.