The oil market is currently navigating a period of extreme volatility as geopolitical headlines clash with rapid shifts in diplomatic sentiment. Just a day after crude oil futures plunged over 10%—settling near $88.13 following a temporary postponement of strikes on Iranian energy assets—the narrative has shifted back toward escalation. Fresh reports suggest that Gulf states are edging toward war with Iran as Saudi Arabia signals a potential move toward direct military involvement. By opening key air bases for U.S. use, Riyadh is signaling a firm shift toward re-establishing deterrence, creating a high-stakes environment for traders where technical supports are being tested by the hour.The conflict has also broaden its scope to include critical energy infrastructure, directly impacting oil and gas market stability. Recent strikes on gas pipelines and pressure stations in Isfahan and Khorramshahr underscore the vulnerability of regional energy systems. Amid this volatility, central bank gold demand remains a vital pillar for the commodities complex. Investors are increasingly looking to bullion as a hedge against geopolitical risk and ongoing de-dollarization trends, with nations like Indonesia and Malaysia sustaining demand even as prices fluctuate. For investors, these developments reinforce a significant risk premium across energy and precious metals as the region braces for potential further escalation.Crude oil analysis: sellers regain control as failed rebound raises risks for traders, investors, and consumersCrude oil is back in focus, and not only for futures traders.When oil starts showing renewed seller control after a failed recovery, the impact can stretch well beyond the chart. It can shape inflation expectations, influence energy stocks, affect transport-heavy businesses, and eventually show up in the everyday expenses people feel most directly, from fuel bills to delivery costs and broader cost-of-living pressure. That broader wallet angle is one reason oil analysis tends to travel well with readers, especially when the setup is clear and timely. Following the investingLive methodology-protected editorial framework, this piece focuses on underlying participation, price acceptance, and scenario-based decision support without exposing proprietary mechanics.The Oil market snapshot todayThe bigger picture in crude oil looks less like a healthy uptrend and more like a recovery that ran into a ceiling.After a violent collapse and a meaningful rebound, price worked back into a broad upper zone near $99-$100 several times. On the surface, that might look constructive. In practice, repeated revisits only matter if the market can actually accept higher prices and build from them. In this case, the latest upper-zone test failed hard, and price rotated back into the lower half of the broader structure.That shift matters because it suggests the market is no longer behaving like a strong recovery trying to break out. It is behaving more like a range where sellers are becoming more effective again.What the underlying activity in oil crude oil futures suggestsThe current read is straightforward:Sponsorship score: -6On our scale from -10 to +10, a score of -6 means a clearly bearish bias, with sellers holding a meaningful edge but not yet signaling the most extreme downside caseThat points to a bearish lean, not because crude oil is already in a full breakdown, but because the latest evidence favors sellers over buyers. Buyers are still trying to repair the damage, but sellers appear to be controlling the more important parts of the structure.There was a genuinely constructive low earlier in the sequence. That earlier low showed real sponsorship from buyers and a meaningful effort to rebuild value higher. That is important, because it tells us this was not a one-way collapse with no demand underneath.But the story changed later.A more recent upper-zone test did not lead to lasting upside acceptance. Instead, it failed sharply, and the following bounce looked more like repair work than fresh takeover. That difference is crucial. A market can bounce and still remain vulnerable. A rebound alone is not proof that control has shifted.Right now, the better interpretation is that buyers are stabilizing where they can, while sellers remain more effective at the zones that matter most.Why the recent failure in oil price matters more than the earlier recoveryThis is where many traders and investors can get fooled.A higher low on the chart often looks bullish. It looks like support held higher than before, which sounds constructive. But price geometry alone does not tell the whole story. What matters is the quality of participation behind that low.Earlier in the structure, buyers appeared stronger and more convincing. Later, after the failed upper-range push, the next low did not show the same quality. It held above the earlier panic zone in price terms, but the rebound from it looked less like confident accumulation and more like a repair attempt after damage had already been done.That makes the recent low less bullish than it appears at first glance.In plain terms, the market is not saying, "buyers are taking over again." It is saying, "buyers are trying to stop the bleeding, but sellers still have the upper hand."Longer-term structure vs recent behavior for oilFrom a broader perspective, crude oil did manage to build a recovery base after the earlier washout. That part of the chart still matters. It tells us demand was not absent, and it explains why the market was able to revisit the upper end of the range multiple times.But more recent behavior is weaker.The latest trip into the upper boundary did not attract durable upside acceptance. Instead, it produced a strong rejection and sent price back down into the lower half of the broader range. That kind of behavior often signals distribution rather than healthy continuation.So there is an important split here:The longer-term repair story is real, but the more recent trading activity has become meaningfully less constructive.When recent evidence starts to override older supportive evidence, traders and investors need to respect that change.Key oil price areas to watch for crude oil futuresFor now, several zones stand out as especially important.The first area is around $94.85. If rebound attempts continue to fail below that zone, it supports the idea that sellers still control the middle of the structure.Above that, $96.25 becomes another important test. A stronger reclaim and hold above this area would start to weaken the bearish case and suggest buyers are rebuilding acceptance in a more meaningful way.On the downside, $89.25 and then $87.85 are key support references. If crude oil slips back below those areas and begins accepting lower prices again, that would strengthen the bearish case materially.Then there is the bigger ceiling near $99-$100. This zone remains the most important upper boundary in the whole structure. If price returns there and gets rejected again, it would add weight to the idea that this has been a distributional top rather than a breakout base.Bullish scenario for oil today and later this weekThe bullish case is not dead, but it needs more proof.For the tone to improve meaningfully, buyers would need to reclaim the middle of the range, hold above $94.85, then push and stabilize above $96.25. More importantly, any future return toward the $99-$100 region would need to look very different from the last one. It would need to show actual acceptance rather than another fast rejection.If that happens, the current bearish lean would soften and the market could shift back toward a balanced or moderately constructive outlook.Bearish scenario for oil today and the upcoming daysThe bearish path remains the more likely one for now.If crude oil continues to struggle beneath $94.85 and $96.25, and then rolls back toward $89.25 and $87.85, the message would be that the recent recovery bounce was fragile. A fresh failure in those lower zones would suggest the last upper-range rejection was not just a temporary flush but a more meaningful reassertion of seller control.A later retest of the $99-$100 zone that fails again would reinforce that view even further.What this means for oil tradersFor active oil traders, this is the kind of setup where patience matters.The chart is not showing a clean collapse, which means there can still be sharp bounces and temporary squeezes. But the balance of evidence suggests those rebounds should be treated carefully unless price starts rebuilding acceptance in the middle and upper parts of the structure.In other words, a bounce is not enough. The market needs to prove it can hold higher, not just briefly visit higher.That distinction matters in crude oil more than in many other assets, because oil often swings on a mix of macro expectations, positioning shifts, and fast sentiment turns. Fragile rebounds can look impressive for a session or two, then fail once the market runs into overhead supply again.What this means for investors and the user's walletOil matters because it is not just a trading market. It feeds into everyday life.If crude oil stays under pressure, that can eventually ease some inflation concerns in areas tied to transport, shipping, and fuel-sensitive spending. Lower energy costs can be a relief for households and businesses, even if the pass-through is not immediate or perfectly linear. That is the wallet angle many readers care about: oil weakness can sometimes help reduce pressure at the pump and lower some operating costs across the economy.But there is another side to it.If oil weakness reflects concern about growth, demand, or broader economic softness, then lower prices are not always a simple positive. They can also signal a less confident growth backdrop. That is why traders, investors, and everyday consumers should think of oil as a two-sided signal. It can relieve some cost pressure, while also hinting at softer demand conditions underneath.For equity investors, this matters too. Energy stocks, transport names, airlines, industrials, and consumer sectors can all react differently depending on whether oil is falling because supply is comfortable, demand is fading, or the market is simply re-pricing expectations.Sponsorship score explained for oil todaySponsorship score: -6On our -10 to +10 scale, a -6 score signals a solid bearish tilt, meaning sellers currently have clear control, though the setup is not yet at the most extreme bearish end of the rangeThis reflects a clearly bearish lean, but not an extreme one. The score recognizes that buyers did show real strength earlier in the broader structure, which prevents the view from becoming outright collapse territory. At the same time, the more recent evidence, especially the failed upper-range push and the weaker-quality repair afterward, tilts the balance back toward sellers.A stronger reclaim of the mid-range and upper-range zones would improve the score. Another failed rebound or renewed loss of lower support would push it more negative.What would change the view on my oil outlookThe bearish read would weaken if crude oil can reclaim and hold above $94.85, then build acceptance above $96.25.It would weaken further if a renewed push toward $99-$100 looks stable instead of fragile.The bearish read would strengthen if rebound attempts continue to fail below the mid-range, or if price slips back through $89.25 and $87.85 with growing downside acceptance.Risk noteThis oil price and market analysis is intended for educational and decision-support purposes only. It is not financial advice. Markets are inherently uncertain, and all trading and investing decisions carry risk.For real-time trade ideas, follow-ups, and market insights across stocks, indices, commodities, and crypto, check out the investingLive Stocks Telegram channel. Trade ideas are shared for educational purposes only and at your own risk.https://t.me/investingLiveStocks This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Tight labour market, firmer wages will keep in place cycle in which wages and prices rise in tandemTemporary freeze to food sales tax may briefly push down inflationBut it is likely to have a limited impact on inflation expectations as a wholeBOJ will guide monetary policy appropriately to stably achieve inflation target accompanied by wage gainsHe's mostly commenting after we got the initial outcome of the spring wage negotiations. From yesterday: Japan's largest union group Rengo sees average wage hike of 5.26% this fiscal yearThat will mark the third straight fiscal year in which Japan sees average wage hikes of above 5%. That pretty much gives the green light and confirmation to the BOJ if they so desire to act. However, the US-Iran conflict has served to complicate things more so than it already was before.The BOJ was already squaring off against prime minister Takaichi in pursuing a differing policy path that the government wants. So, the latest developments in the Middle East piles on top of that now.As Ueda mentions, the central bank wants inflation to be largely driven by stronger wage pressures. However, higher oil prices now will serve to bring up cost-push inflation instead. And that is something that the BOJ wants to actively avoid from happening or at least not rely on to push the rate hike narrative.Besides that, USD/JPY bordering on the 160 mark will also make a rate hike look like one just to address the yen weakness. And that will be another play on optics that Ueda & co. will be hoping to side step for the time being. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level. It's a modest-sized one but not likely to factor much into play in the day ahead. As things stand, headline risk is everything in markets.US president Trump dropped a bombshell on markets yesterday and since then, it's been rather chaotic. The general sentiment in major currencies is now driven by broader dollar sentiment, which is in turn driven by the overall risk mood. So, that is the biggest driver of trading sentiment right now.The dollar is recouping some losses today as market jitters start to creep back in. That's keeping EUR/USD pinned down to 1.1585 at the moment. I wouldn't expect the expiries to have too much pull factor on a day/week like this. So, price action will be more heavily influenced by dollar sentiment more so than any potential pull from the expiries above.Looking to European trading, be wary of the tail end of the session. When Trump wakes up, we might be in for another roller coaster ride.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

This is scheduled to begin on 26 March, so the Japanese government is mainly offering confirmation on the total figure. As a reminder, Japan had already released about 15 days' worth of reserves from the private sector on 16 March. So, this just adds to that and the total will be roughly 80 million barrels.And all of this also ties together with the IEA coordination to release a total of 400 million barrels globally.The Japanese government confirms that the crude oil reserves release here will be from 11 locations nationwide.As another reminder, Japan has a massive buffer in terms of oil in its reserve capacity heading into this crisis. They had around 254 days' worth of oil and such a buffer looks to be well warranted in this kind of scenario now. But as a separate reminder, the IEA coordination rule does require countries to maintain a minimum of 90 days of net oil imports as emergency reserves. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The early moves today are a pullback to what we saw in trading yesterday. Oil prices are up and so are Treasury yields, which in turn are weighing on equities and precious metals again. And in the major currencies space, the dollar is once again creeping higher across the board.Putting aside all the noise about whether or not there were talks between the US and Iran, it is clear that Trump has signaled that we might just be entering a new phase in the conflict. We've seen this playbook by him before. It is the exact same thing that he stuck with when dealing with China on trade/tariffs.It's all the same kind of words being used. "I didn't call, they called". "Talks were very good and very productive". "They want to make a deal".Knowing Trump, he always wants to sell the narrative that he is the one who won the art of the deal. However, the difference this time is that Iran will hold significant leverage as they are staying in control of the Strait of Hormuz. It would not make much sense for them to give that up, while at the same time also compromising to US demands.In any case, we'll just have to wait and see. But the fact of the matter is, the Strait of Hormuz remains in de facto closure for now. And that is still the most important thing for markets.Sure, strikes against Iranian power plants are postponed for five days (Israel doesn't agree though).However, there's still no passage for commercial vessels along the strait and so that means another week of having to deal with the ongoing status quo.Unless something changes on the Strait of Hormuz, nothing changes for markets.WTI crude oil is up 3% on the day to $91.60 now, while 10-year Treasury yields are back to closing levels on Friday at 4.38%.Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% and that might invite some pressure on US stocks as we revisit the potential technical break lower from Friday. And in the major currencies space, the dollar is up across the board with EUR/USD down 0.3% to 1.1580 and AUD/USD down by 0.6% to 0.6965 currently.It's not shaping up well for precious metals either as the rebound yesterday begins to lose its lustre. Gold is down 1.4% to $4,343 while silver is down a little over 3% to $66.95 at the moment. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

A bit of an update, with Kpler's intel source Amena Bakr reporting on the matter. She says that "a number of LPG vessels crossed the strait yesterday and headed towards India". Adding that "the strait is not closed, but the passage of vessels is tightly controlled by Iran and vessels need to seek permission before passing".I don't believe that's much of a change in the prevailing narrative. The Strait of Hormuz remains in de facto closure and there are no commercial vessels really willing to take up the risk to try and cross it. That unless one is able to get some assurance from Iran, and it seems like only India (and arguably China) to a certain extent has been able to.Otherwise, any other ships with intended destinations elsewhere will not be granted passage at this time. That unless they go under the radar and brave the heavily guarded waters along the strait.As things stand, oil prices are slowly creeping back up again today after the drop yesterday. WTI crude oil is up over 3% currently as market jitters are starting to return.US president Trump is claiming talks but so far, Iran has denied that for the most part. I'm sure there has been some contact of sorts but Trump is definitely making it seem bigger than it is. We've seen this playbook before. It's the exact same thing like when the US engaged on trade talks with China.As for the delay on strikes, it might be a case that Israel is not going to abide by that. From earlier: Iran's Fars report gas infrastructure hit as conflict broadens to energy assetsBut whatever the noise may be on talks and peace, the most important thing is how things are progressing with the Strait of Hormuz. And from the latest development above, it doesn't seem that much of anything has changed since last week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Australian inflation data due Wednesday, March 25, 2026. Preview.WSJ: Gulf states edge toward war with Iran as Saudi signals imminent entryCentral banks seen sustaining gold demand amid geopolitics and dedollarisationJapan core inflation slips below target as subsidies mask underlying price pressuresPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8943Japan March 2026 flash PMI slows as growth momentum cools and cost pressures riseEU and Australia strike trade deal slashing tariffs, boosting exports and tiesIran's Fars report gas infrastructure hit as conflict broadens to energy assetsJapan core CPI moderates in FebruaryDeutsche Bank sees ECB hiking to 2.5% as energy shock lifts inflationRBNZ’s Breman flags near-term inflation rise, warns on second-round risksUS equity dominance cracks. Tariffs, war & policy risks drive exit, leadership questioned.Australia flash PMI slips into contraction as services slump and cost pressures surgeGold oversold enough to rally, says Renaissance Macro’s DeGraafPrivate credit stress: Apollo cap fund withdrawals at 5%. Redemption requests surge to 11%Fed’s Daly flags two economic paths as Middle East risks cloud policy outlookRBNZ’s Breman signals rate hike risk if energy shock drives persistent inflationIn brief:Oil rebounds after sharp drop despite conflicting US–Iran signals Reports of strikes on Iranian gas infrastructure add to energy risk premium Gulf states edging closer to conflict, raising escalation risks Japan CPI soft headline but firm underlying inflation Fed’s Daly and RBNZ’s Breman stress conditional policy amid energy shock Apollo caps redemptions, highlighting private credit stress Australian consumer confidence plunges, inflation expectations surge USD firms broadly; FX ranges modest, equities track Wall Street rebound-Oil prices clawed back part of the prior session’s sharp losses, which had followed US President Donald Trump’s decision to delay planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure after describing talks with Tehran as “productive.” However, Iran denied any negotiations had taken place, calling the reports false, while the rebound in crude was also supported by fresh headlines of strikes on gas-related facilities in Isfahan.Geopolitical tensions remained elevated throughout the session. Reports ICBS) highlighted the presence of Iranian naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran was said to have launched missiles toward Kuwait and Israel. In the US, an explosion and large fire at the Valero refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, one of the country’s largest at around 435k bpd, added to energy market sensitivity.Meanwhile, the broader regional picture continues to deteriorate. Wall Street Journal reporting suggested Gulf states are moving closer to direct involvement in the conflict, with Saudi Arabia signalling a potential shift toward participation and the UAE targeting Iranian-linked financial networks. The developments point to rising risks of a wider conflict and potential disruption to global energy flows.In Japan, February CPI data showed a cooling in headline inflation but resilience in underlying pressures. Core CPI slowed to 1.6% y/y from 2.0%, dipping below the Bank of Japan’s target, while core-core inflation held firm at 2.5%. The data reinforces expectations that policy normalisation remains on track despite near-term softness. USD/JPY edged higher on the session.Central bank commentary from both the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand struck a similar tone. Policymakers indicated they would likely look through a temporary energy-driven inflation spike, but warned that a prolonged conflict could result in higher inflation, weaker growth and a softer labour market, complicating the policy outlook.In credit markets, Apollo Global Management capped redemptions in its Apollo Debt Solutions fund after withdrawal requests exceeded limits, highlighting ongoing stress in private credit and liquidity-sensitive vehicles.In Australia, consumer sentiment deteriorated sharply, with confidence falling to a record low amid rising petrol prices, the ongoing conflict and recent RBA tightening. Inflation expectations also surged, with markets now turning to the February CPI release due next.In FX, the US dollar firmed modestly, with EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD and CAD all easing against the greenback in relatively contained ranges. Asia-Pacific equities took their lead from the prior Wall Street rebound, trading with a firmer tone. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Westpac sees Australia CPI steady but flags energy-driven upside risks.In brief from their preview. Summary:February CPI seen at 0.1% m/m, 3.8% y/y (unchanged) Trimmed mean expected 0.3% m/m, 3.4% y/y Inflation momentum steady but still above target band February data pre-dates Middle East energy shock Fuel prices fell in February, masking underlying pressures Energy shock could lift CPI to ~4.6% y/y by June quarter Risks skewed to upside if conflict persistsWestpac expects Australia’s February CPI to show inflation holding steady, but warns that emerging energy shocks are likely to push inflation higher in the months ahead, complicating the outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia.The bank forecasts a modest 0.1% monthly rise in CPI for February, leaving the annual rate unchanged at 3.8% for a third consecutive month. Underlying inflation is also expected to remain sticky, with the trimmed mean seen rising 0.3% on the month and holding at 3.4% year-on-year. While this points to some stability in inflation, the details suggest price pressures remain persistent. Housing costs, particularly rents and electricity, continue to rise, while categories such as education and clothing are also contributing to upward pressure. At the same time, falling fuel prices and seasonal declines in travel costs are expected to offset some of these gains, keeping headline inflation contained in the near term.Crucially, the February data does not yet reflect the impact of the recent escalation in the Middle East. The surge in oil prices and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz occurred too late to feed into the February CPI print. As a result, the current data is likely to understate the inflation pressures building in the pipeline.Looking ahead, Westpac expects energy markets to play a dominant role in shaping the inflation trajectory. Under its baseline scenario—assuming a temporary disruption to Gulf shipping—headline inflation is projected to rise to around 4.6% year-on-year in the June quarter before easing later in the year. Higher fuel, transport and input costs are expected to flow through to consumer prices, with some spillover into food and services.While the direct impact on underlying inflation is expected to be more limited, there are growing risks of second-round effects. If higher energy prices begin to influence inflation expectations or wage-setting behaviour, inflation could prove more persistent than currently anticipated.Overall, the outlook suggests inflation is stable for now but facing renewed upside risks, leaving policymakers with a more complex path as global developments increasingly shape the domestic inflation profile.***************For the Australian dollar, the February CPI print is unlikely to be a major catalyst on its own, given expectations for a steady 3.8% annual pace and the known lag in energy impacts. Markets are more likely to look through this release and focus on the forward trajectory for inflation, particularly as rising oil prices begin to feed into headline and core measures in coming months.A stronger-than-expected print, especially in the trimmed mean, would reinforce expectations that the RBA may need to tighten further, providing near-term support for the AUD. Conversely, any downside surprise could weigh modestly on the currency, though such moves may be limited given the market’s awareness that energy-driven inflation pressures are still ahead.More broadly, the AUD outlook will increasingly hinge on how quickly energy costs translate into sustained inflation and whether this shifts the RBA’s policy path. However, global risk sentiment tied to the Middle East conflict remains a key offset, meaning AUD direction may ultimately be driven as much by geopolitical developments as by domestic inflation data. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Gulf states are moving closer to joining the conflict with Iran, with Saudi Arabia signalling a potential shift toward direct military involvement.Wall Street Journal (gated) report.Summary:Gulf states moving closer to direct involvement in conflict with Iran Saudi Arabia allows US use of key air base, signalling deeper alignment Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly close to joining attacks UAE cracking down on Iranian-linked assets, targeting financial channels Iran attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure driving escalation Strait of Hormuz control risks raising stakes further Gulf states balancing deterrence vs risk of full-scale warUS-aligned Gulf states are moving closer to direct involvement in the conflict with Iran, as sustained attacks on regional energy infrastructure and escalating security threats push key players toward a more forceful response.Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, long cautious about being drawn into open conflict, are now taking more assertive steps that suggest a shift in strategy. Riyadh has agreed to allow US forces to use King Fahd Air Base, strengthening operational support for ongoing strikes and signalling a deeper alignment with Washington’s military posture.More significantly, Saudi leadership appears to be nearing a decision to enter the conflict directly. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is reportedly seeking to re-establish deterrence following repeated Iranian attacks, with indications that Saudi Arabia’s participation may now be a matter of timing rather than possibility. Public messaging has also hardened, with officials warning that continued attacks risk provoking a broader response and that assumptions about Gulf restraint may be misplaced.The UAE is also stepping up pressure, targeting Iran’s financial and commercial networks. Authorities have begun shutting down institutions linked to Iranian interests, a move that could restrict Tehran’s access to foreign capital and trade channels. This represents a shift from passive resilience to more active economic countermeasures.These developments come as Iran increases pressure on the region, including attacks on critical infrastructure and threats to exert influence over the Strait of Hormuz. Any move by Tehran to control or restrict access to the waterway would represent a major escalation, given its central role in global energy flows.Despite these moves, Gulf states remain cautious. Direct military involvement carries significant risks, including retaliation from Iran and the possibility of being left exposed if US policy shifts. However, repeated attacks and growing concerns over long-term regional security are narrowing the space for neutrality.The evolving stance reflects a broader recalibration among Gulf allies, who now face a difficult choice between absorbing continued pressure or escalating to restore deterrence. The trajectory suggests the conflict may be entering a more dangerous phase, with regional actors increasingly drawn toward direct confrontation. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Central banks are expected to keep buying gold amid geopolitical risks and diversification trends, though elevated prices and market dynamics may temper the pace.Summary:Central banks expected to remain active gold buyers in 2026 New and previously inactive buyers entering the market Recent purchases seen from Indonesia, Malaysia and Guatemala Demand tied to geopolitical risk and dedollarisation trends Gold prices sharply lower from recent highs amid forced selling Elevated prices may slow pace of purchases Industry forecasts should be viewed in context of vested interestsCentral bank demand for gold is expected to remain a key support for the market in 2026, underpinned by ongoing geopolitical tensions and a continued push toward reserve diversification away from the US dollar.Recent activity points to a broadening base of buyers, with a number of central banks either returning to the market after extended periods of inactivity or initiating purchases for the first time. Countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Guatemala have been cited among those increasing gold holdings, reflecting a more geographically diverse pattern of demand.The underlying drivers of this trend remain consistent. Gold continues to serve as a hedge against geopolitical instability, particularly amid rising global tensions and conflict-driven volatility in energy and financial markets. At the same time, it plays a role in diversification strategies as central banks reassess reserve composition in an environment of shifting economic and political alignments.There are also indications that some central banks are sourcing gold domestically, purchasing from local producers to support industry development and retain supply within national borders. This introduces an additional structural element to demand beyond traditional reserve management considerations.However, recent price action adds complexity to the outlook. Gold has seen a sharp correction from earlier record highs, with declines linked in part to margin-driven selling. While previous episodes of price weakness have attracted official sector buying, it remains unclear whether that dynamic is repeating in the current environment.At the same time, elevated price levels themselves may act as a constraint. Higher valuations can deter incremental purchases and increase the relative weighting of gold in reserves, reducing the need for further accumulation.It is also worth noting that some of these outlooks originate from industry bodies such as the World Gold Council, which represents gold producers and has a clear interest in promoting the role of gold in reserve portfolios. While the underlying trends cited are widely observed, such perspectives are typically assessed alongside broader market data and independent analysis.Overall, central bank demand is likely to remain a structural pillar of the gold market, even if the pace of buying moderates from recent highs. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan inflation slowed on subsidies, but underlying price pressures remain firm, keeping the BoJ’s tightening path intact.Summary:Headline CPI slows to 1.3% y/y (prev 1.5%, est 1.3%) Core CPI (ex fresh food) drops to 1.6% (prev 2.0%, est 1.7%), below BoJ target Core-core CPI (ex food, energy) holds at 2.5% (prev 2.6%, est 2.4%) Energy subsidies and tax cuts drive disinflation Underlying inflation remains firmer despite headline softness BoJ to introduce new inflation gauge stripping policy distortions Policy outlook unchanged but communication more complex Japan’s inflation slowed in February, with headline and core measures easing as government subsidies dampened energy costs, complicating the Bank of Japan’s assessment of underlying price pressures.Headline consumer price inflation came in at 1.3% year-on-year, down from 1.5% in January and in line with expectations. Core inflation, which excludes fresh food and is closely watched by the central bank, slowed to 1.6% from 2.0%, falling below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the first time since early 2022. The reading was slightly weaker than market expectations of 1.7%.However, a deeper look at the data suggests underlying inflation remains more resilient. A measure excluding both fresh food and energy—often used as a proxy for demand-driven inflation—rose 2.5% year-on-year, only marginally down from 2.6% previously and slightly above expectations. This indicates that domestic price pressures remain intact despite the headline slowdown.The moderation in inflation was largely driven by government intervention. A sharp decline in energy costs, including a 9.1% drop, reflected renewed subsidies on electricity and gas. Additional policy measures, including a gasoline tax cut and expanded education subsidies, also weighed on the headline figures. These effects are seen as temporary and are likely to reverse as policy support fades and energy prices remain elevated amid geopolitical tensions.Price pressures in other areas remained firm. Food prices excluding fresh items rose at a still-elevated pace, while services inflation held steady, pointing to ongoing underlying inflation momentum.For the Bank of Japan, the data presents a communication challenge rather than a policy shift. While headline inflation has softened, the central bank remains focused on underlying trends. To address distortions from policy measures, the BoJ has signalled it will introduce a new inflation indicator designed to strip out one-off effects, helping policymakers better assess the true inflation trajectory.The broader policy outlook remains unchanged, with the BoJ maintaining a gradual tightening bias. However, the combination of subsidy-driven disinflation and persistent underlying pressures underscores the complexity of the current environment, particularly as the Middle East conflict adds to both inflation risks and growth headwinds. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Earlier:PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8840 – Reuters estimatePBOC inject 17.5bn yuan in 7-day reverse repo OMO at 1.4% (unchanged rate) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s flash PMI shows continued expansion but with clear signs of slowing growth and rising cost pressures.Summary:Japan flash composite PMI slows to 52.5 (Feb: 53.9) Services activity eases to 52.8 (Feb: 53.8) Manufacturing PMI drops to 51.4 (Feb: 53.0) Manufacturing output slows to 51.8 (Feb: 54.2) New orders growth weakens to slowest in three months Input costs rise at fastest pace in 11 months Business confidence slips to near one-year low Growth remains intact but momentum clearly softeningJapan’s private sector continued to expand in March, but at a slower pace, as both manufacturing and services activity lost momentum amid rising cost pressures and growing geopolitical uncertainty.According to preliminary S&P Global flash PMI data, the composite output index fell to 52.5 in March from 53.9 in February, marking the weakest pace of expansion in three months, although still firmly above the 50 threshold that separates growth from contraction. The slowdown was broad-based across sectors. Services activity eased to 52.8 from 53.8, while manufacturing showed a more pronounced loss of momentum, with the headline PMI falling to 51.4 from 53.0. Manufacturing output also slowed sharply, coming in at 51.8 compared with 54.2 previously. Underlying demand conditions softened, with new orders expanding at the slowest pace in three months. Both domestic and export demand showed signs of moderation, with foreign demand for goods weakening and services exports only modestly improving. Employment continued to rise, extending the current hiring streak, although job growth slowed to a four-month low.At the same time, cost pressures intensified significantly. Input prices rose at the fastest pace in nearly a year, driven in part by higher fuel costs, supply chain disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict, and a weaker yen, which has increased import costs. Despite this, firms were less able to pass on higher costs, with output price inflation easing slightly, suggesting some pressure on margins.Business confidence also deteriorated, slipping to its lowest level in around a year as firms expressed concern about the uncertain outlook, particularly regarding energy prices and supply chain stability. While manufacturers remained relatively optimistic due to expectations of stronger demand in sectors such as semiconductors, defence and AI, services firms showed a more marked decline in sentiment.Overall, the data point to a moderation in Japan’s growth trajectory rather than a reversal. However, the combination of softer demand, rising costs and declining confidence highlights a more challenging environment for businesses heading into the second quarter. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

EU and Australia struck a major trade deal removing most tariffs and expanding market access, alongside a new security partnership.Summary:EU and Australia agree landmark free trade deal and broader partnership Over 99% of tariffs on EU exports removed, saving ~€1bn annually 98% of Australian exports by value to enter EU duty free EU exports to Australia projected to rise up to 33% over 10 years Australia to remove tariffs on EU wine, fruit, vegetables and chocolate Tariffs lowered on EU imports of Australian critical minerals 55% of Australian beef duty free, remainder at 7.5% tariff Deal accompanied by new EU-Australia security and defence partnershipThe European Union and Australia have reached agreement on a comprehensive free trade deal, significantly reducing tariffs and deepening economic ties at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty and shifting global trade dynamics.Under the agreement, more than 99% of tariffs on EU goods exports to Australia will be eliminated, delivering an estimated €1 billion in annual savings for European companies. The European Commission expects the deal to materially boost trade flows, projecting that EU exports to Australia could increase by as much as 33% over the next decade.Australia will also gain improved access to European markets, with the government stating that 98% of the current value of Australian exports will enter the EU duty free under the agreement. This marks a significant opening for Australian producers, particularly in agriculture and resources.Key sector-specific provisions highlight the mutual benefits of the deal. Australia has agreed to remove tariffs on a range of EU agricultural and consumer goods, including wine, fruit, vegetables and chocolate, supporting European exporters seeking greater penetration in the Australian market. In return, Australian beef producers will gain increased access to Europe, with 55% of exports entering duty free and the remaining 45% subject to a reduced tariff of 7.5%.The agreement also includes measures to lower tariffs on critical minerals, underlining the strategic importance of Australia’s resource sector in global supply chains, particularly in areas linked to energy transition and advanced manufacturing.Beyond trade, the deal is accompanied by a broader strengthening of bilateral ties, with Australia and the EU announcing a new security and defence partnership. This reflects a growing alignment between the two economies as they seek to reinforce economic resilience and strategic cooperation amid global instability.Overall, the agreement represents a significant step in diversifying trade relationships for both sides, reducing reliance on traditional partners and enhancing long-term economic integration in an increasingly fragmented global environment.Australia and the EU have been talking for a decade on this trade agreement. Trump the catalyst to getting agreement. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Strikes on Iran’s gas infrastructure highlight rising risks to energy systems as the conflict broadens, with potential implications for supply and market stability.Summary:Projectile reported to have struck gas pipeline feeding Khorramshahr power station Additional gas-related facilities hit in Isfahan, including pressure reduction station Reports link damage to US-Israeli strikes in central Iran Energy infrastructure increasingly in focus as conflict intensifies Raises risks of disruption to domestic energy supply and regional flows Adds to broader concerns over oil and gas market stabilityEnergy infrastructure in Iran has reportedly come under renewed pressure, with strikes targeting gas-related assets in both the southwest and central regions of the country. According to reports, a projectile struck a gas pipeline supplying a power station in Khorramshahr, a key city near Iran’s southern energy corridor, raising concerns about potential disruptions to electricity generation and domestic gas distribution.Separately, additional damage was reported in Isfahan, where gas-related facilities—including offices linked to a gas company and a gas pressure reduction station—were said to have been hit in strikes attributed to US-Israeli activity. The targeting of such infrastructure suggests a widening scope of the conflict, with energy systems increasingly exposed to disruption risks.While the immediate impact on Iran’s broader energy exports remains unclear, the incidents highlight the vulnerability of critical infrastructure amid escalating tensions. Damage to pipelines and pressure facilities can have knock-on effects for both industrial activity and power generation, particularly if repairs are delayed or if further strikes occur. Markets are likely to interpret such developments as adding to the risk premium across energy prices, especially given the strategic importance of the region to global oil and gas flows.The reports were carried by Fars News Agency, a semi-official Iranian news outlet often viewed as closely aligned with state institutions, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. While Fars is a key domestic source for developments within Iran, its reporting is typically assessed alongside other international and regional sources given the sensitivities surrounding conflict-related information.Overall, the developments underscore a growing pattern of strikes affecting energy infrastructure, reinforcing concerns about potential supply disruptions and the broader economic implications of a prolonged conflict. The situation remains fluid, with markets closely monitoring for confirmation of damage extent and any escalation that could impact regional or global energy supply chains. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan inflation data for February 2026. Earlier:February Tokyo data showed underlying price pressures moderating- This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Deutsche Bank turns more hawkish on the ECB, arguing that energy-driven inflation risks now outweigh growth concerns, though the policy outlook remains highly uncertain.Summary:Deutsche Bank shifts ECB call in response to Middle East conflict Now expects ECB to hike rates to 2.50% in 2026 Two 25bp hikes seen in June and September Energy shock driving inflation back above 3% Growth outlook deteriorating, with recession risk rising Inflation expected to be initially transitory but risks becoming persistent Policy path highly contingent on energy prices and geopolitics Risks skewed both ways: no hikes or more aggressive tightening possibleDeutsche Bank has revised its European Central Bank (ECB) outlook, warning that the Middle East conflict has materially altered the inflation trajectory and forced a shift toward a more hawkish policy stance despite rising risks to growth.In its latest note, the bank said it now expects the ECB to raise interest rates to 2.50% in 2026, compared with its previous forecast that rates would remain on hold at 2% through next year before tightening began in 2027. The revision reflects a sharp reassessment of inflation dynamics following the surge in energy prices linked to the escalating geopolitical الأزمة.Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted that, prior to the conflict, risks around their ECB call had been tilted to the downside, with a more dovish policy path increasingly likely. However, the energy shock has changed the outlook significantly, with current price levels and forward curves suggesting inflation could quickly rise above 3% in the coming months and remain elevated through the rest of the year.While the bank expects this inflation spike to be largely transitory, it warned that the key risk lies in persistence — particularly if higher energy costs begin to feed more broadly into the economy. This creates a challenging policy environment for the ECB, which must balance rising inflation against weakening growth.The growth outlook has deteriorated in parallel, with Deutsche Bank flagging downside risks and a “real” possibility of recession this year. Despite this, the bank argues that a modest tightening cycle would be an appropriate response to anchor inflation expectations without significantly worsening the economic slowdown.Under its revised baseline, Deutsche Bank expects the ECB to deliver two 25 basis point rate hikes, likely in June and September, bringing the deposit rate to 2.50% — the upper end of estimates for neutral policy. Such a move would signal the central bank’s commitment to price stability while avoiding a shift into clearly restrictive territory.However, the bank stressed that uncertainty remains exceptionally high, with the policy path highly dependent on the evolution of energy prices and the broader geopolitical situation. If tensions ease quickly, the ECB could opt to keep rates unchanged. Conversely, a more prolonged or severe disruption to energy supply could force policymakers to move beyond neutral and into more restrictive settings. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Breman signalled higher near-term inflation but stressed a conditional response, with policy hinging on cost pass-through and second-round effects.SummaryBreman reiterates near-term inflation lift driven by energy shock Growth expected to soften alongside rising costs Focus on whether firms pass through costs or absorb margins Monitoring for second-round effects and inflation expectations shift Signals readiness to act if medium-term inflation risks build Repeats stance of not reacting too quickly to temporary price spikes Reinforces earlier message: look through short-term inflation, tighten if persistentReserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman reinforced a cautious but conditional policy stance, warning that inflation is likely to rise in the near term while growth momentum softens, as the economic impact of elevated energy prices continues to filter through the economy.Building on her earlier remarks, Breman reiterated that policymakers expect a temporary lift in headline inflation, largely driven by higher fuel and energy costs linked to ongoing geopolitical tensions. However, the central bank’s focus remains firmly on whether these price pressures spill over into broader inflation dynamics.A key area of scrutiny will be how firms respond to rising input costs. Breman highlighted that policymakers will be closely watching whether businesses pass on higher costs to consumers or instead absorb them through margins. The extent of this pass-through will be critical in determining whether inflationary pressures become more persistent.Consistent with earlier guidance, Breman emphasised the importance of monitoring second-round effects. If higher costs begin to feed into wages, pricing behaviour or inflation expectations, the central bank stands ready to respond. In such a scenario, tighter monetary policy could be required to ensure inflation expectations remain anchored and to prevent a temporary shock from becoming entrenched.At the same time, Breman made clear that policymakers are wary of reacting prematurely. Tightening policy too quickly in response to what may prove to be a short-lived inflation spike risks unnecessarily dampening economic activity, particularly as the recovery remains fragile. This aligns with her earlier comments that monetary policy should look through temporary price increases unless they threaten the medium-term inflation outlook.The overall message underscores a flexible, forward-looking approach. While near-term inflation is expected to rise, the policy response will depend on whether underlying inflation pressures persist. The balance between inflation risks and growth headwinds remains finely poised, with the RBNZ prepared to adjust its stance as the outlook evolves. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Natixis sees a growing shift away from US equities toward Europe and emerging markets, as valuations, diversification needs and geopolitical risks reshape global asset allocation.Summary:Natixis highlights growing rotation out of US equities amid changing macro backdrop Europe, Japan and emerging markets increasingly favoured on valuation and diversification grounds US exceptionalism narrative fading after tariffs and geopolitical shocks European earnings expectations improving, valuation gap attracting flows Value stocks seen gaining traction over growth in current cycle Middle East conflict and oil surge adding uncertainty to global outlook HSBC notes US resilience despite rotation, supported by tech and energy sectorsNatixis Investment Managers signalled a notable shift in global equity allocation trends, with investors increasingly diversifying away from US equities and rotating toward Europe, Japan and emerging markets. The change in sentiment comes against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, alongside rising oil prices and a more uncertain macroeconomic outlook.The firm highlighted that the narrative of US exceptionalism, which dominated markets in recent years, has begun to fade. A combination of policy shifts, including tariffs, and geopolitical developments has prompted investors to reassess the relative attractiveness of global equity markets. In contrast, Europe is seeing renewed interest, supported by improving earnings expectations and more attractive valuations. Forecasts for European corporate earnings growth have strengthened notably, helping to close the gap with US markets.Natixis also pointed to growing opportunities in emerging markets, particularly across Asia and parts of Latin America, where structural growth themes and diversification benefits are drawing increased attention. Japan and South Korea were highlighted as areas of relative strength, while broader Asian exposure remains a core allocation for many investors despite ongoing geopolitical risks.From a style perspective, the environment is seen as increasingly favourable for value investing, with investors finding opportunities in underappreciated sectors and regions. While the US continues to offer pockets of value, particularly outside the largest technology names, concentration risks in mega-cap stocks are encouraging broader diversification.At the same time, the outlook remains highly uncertain. Elevated energy prices and geopolitical instability are weighing on confidence, while the global growth backdrop is becoming more difficult to predict. This is reinforcing the need for a more agile and selective investment approach, with sector opportunities identified in areas such as technology, artificial intelligence and healthcare.Separately, HSBC Private Bank notes that while investors have been rotating away from US equities, the market has demonstrated resilience during recent geopolitical shocks. The strength of the US energy sector and the relative insulation of large technology companies from oil price volatility have helped support US equity performance, even as diversification trends gather pace.---Natixis Investment Managers is a global asset management firm headquartered in Paris, operating as part of Groupe BPCE, one of France’s largest banking groups. The firm oversees a multi-affiliate model, bringing together a range of specialised investment managers across asset classes, including equities, fixed income, alternatives and thematic strategies. Through this structure, Natixis offers diversified investment capabilities to institutional and retail clients globally, with a strong presence in Europe and the US. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.