Peer-to-peer sports trading platform Novig can now operate as a federally regulated prediction market. The company says the approval process was the fastest for any Designated Contract Market in CFTC history. The designation, granted to its Ludlow Exchange LLC entity, creates a federal route to offer sports-based event contracts without relying on state-by-state sportsbook licensing models. A Different Economics Model Novig is trying to replace the traditional sportsbook model with an exchange model where users trade directly with one another through an order book, with prices set by supply and demand. “The sportsbook era is ending,” Novig’s founder said. “We're building the financial market for sports... high time that sports event contracts are treated as a legitimate asset class.” https://t.co/Mi8lFGLmfd— Jacob Fortinsky (@j__fort) June 16, 2026 The company has already surpassed $5 billion in cumulative trading volume and recently closed a $75 million Series B round led by Pantera Capital. With a federal license in place, Novig can now pursue national scale without applying for separate gaming licenses in every state. Novig is not the only company trying to move sports trading out of state gambling regimes and into the federal derivatives framework. Sporttrade recently said it would shut down its sportsbook operations across five states and focus on becoming a CFTC-regulated DCM and DCO. DraftKings has launched DKeX, its own CFTC-regulated exchange for event contracts. FanDuel, meanwhile, has partnered with CME Group to develop prediction products.Why Brokers Should Pay Attention For multi-asset brokers and infrastructure providers, the shift creates a new category of regulated event trading. A federal DCM model could give platforms access to a national US market, something traditional sportsbooks have struggled to achieve under state gaming rules. If sports contracts are treated as derivatives, the infrastructure changes with them. The opportunity shifts from sportsbook operations to regulated trading, clearing and liquidity provision. The exchange model also changes how operators make money. Instead of earning from a built-in sportsbook margin, they compete for order flow through liquidity, pricing, technology, and market structure. Novig’s approval adds another federally regulated venue to a market that has historically been dominated by sportsbooks. Liquidity is still a challenge. Novig now has a federal route to market, but the exchange model still has to prove it can attract trading activity at scale. This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.

Robinhood has announced plans to cut about 10% of its full-time workforce, affecting roughly 290 employees, as the company restructures its organization to improve efficiency and reduce management layers. The reported strong demand for its prediction markets, with 8.8 billion event contracts traded in the first quarter of 2026.Job Cuts and Restructuring CostsAccording to Reuters, the company said the layoffs form part of a broader effort to flatten its structure and speed up decision-making. CEO Vlad Tenev said the firm wants to avoid operating with multiple layers of management despite strong business performance.Trading platform Robinhood cuts 10% of workforce to flatten management layers https://t.co/wdvMsO7vWy— CNBC (@CNBC) June 16, 2026Robinhood expects to record about $28 million in restructuring costs in the second quarter. These include severance payments, employee benefits, and stock-based compensation. The company will also close a small number of open roles but said it will continue hiring selectively.Keep reading: Robinhood Launches AI Agent Accounts for Automated Trading and PaymentsThe announcement comes as companies across sectors review headcount and organizational structures to improve efficiency. Robinhood’s shares fell about 2.5% in afternoon trading following the news.The company said it is taking these steps while operating from a position of strength. It reported record average daily trading volumes in June across equities, options, and prediction markets.Market Context and Business PerformanceEarlier in the year, Robinhood missed first-quarter profit expectations due to weaker trading activity linked to crypto market volatility. Retail investors typically reduce trading during periods of high volatility. Market conditions have since improved, supported by stronger equity markets and easing geopolitical tensions.Robinhood has also been expanding beyond transaction-based revenues. The company has introduced additional financial services, including retirement accounts, wealth management products, and credit cards, to reduce its dependence on trading activity.Robinhood saw strong growth in its prediction markets business in Q1 2026, with users trading 8.8 billion event contracts during the quarter. Robinhood’s first quarter looked “slow” because the legacy metrics that public market investors focus on weakened even as its new prediction products took off. AI Bets and Big BuybackNet revenue of 1.07 billion dollars was up 15 percent year-on-year but down from 1.28 billion dollars in Q4, so growth actually decelerated, and both revenue and EPS landed slightly below analyst expectations.And amid rising adoption of AI technology, Robinhood earlier launched a dedicated accounts that let customers plug in their own AI agents to trade stocks and execute predefined strategies without manually using the app. These AI-only sub-accounts must be funded separately from a user’s main portfolio, and the platform offers real-time activity feeds, profit and loss tracking, and transaction alerts so users can monitor what their agents are doing and turn them off at any time. Additionally, Robinhood announced plans to buy back 1.5 billion dollars’ worth of its own shares after its stock fell nearly 40 percent this year and hit a new low before slightly recovering. This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.

Financial markets largely moved on after the United States and Iran announced an agreement over the weekend. On Polymarket, traders are still debating whether the event happened at all. The prediction market platform has processed more than $345 million in volume on contracts tied to a US-Iran peace deal. While both countries announced an agreement, the market remains unresolved because users disagree on whether the developments satisfy the contract’s requirement for a “permanent peace deal.” When Does a Peace Deal Count? The dispute turns on Polymarket’s definition of a “permanent peace deal.” According to the contract rules, a qualifying agreement must explicitly indicate that military hostilities between the two countries have ended or will permanently cease. Agreements that are temporary, or that do not clearly establish a lasting end to hostilities, do not qualify. That wording has left traders split. Supporters of a “yes” resolution point to public statements describing the agreement as a permanent end to military operations. Opponents argue that negotiations are still ongoing, no final document has been signed, and parts of the arrangement remain temporary, including the reported 60-day reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Traders are now arguing over contract language and official paperwork, not the underlying event itself.Who Gets the Final Say? As with other disputed Polymarket markets, the final decision now rests with UMA token holders. They debate contested outcomes before voting on a resolution. The process has faced criticism in the past. Bloomberg recently reported that nine wallets control more than half of the tokens used in dispute votes. That concentration has raised concerns that a small group of participants can influence outcomes involving hundreds of millions of dollars.The outcome now depends on how UMA voters read the contract language and the available public statements. Contracts remain tradable during the dispute process, meaning users can effectively trade on how arbitrators are likely to settle the dispute. Beyond One Market The Iran dispute highlights a broader challenge for prediction markets as they move into increasingly complex subjects such as geopolitics, regulation and public policy. Prediction markets have become highly effective at aggregating expectations. Settlement remains more difficult when outcomes depend on interpretation rather than a clearly verifiable event. Platforms have taken different approaches. Polymarket relies on external token-holder governance to resolve disputed outcomes. Kalshi, by contrast, settles markets under a predefined CFTC-regulated rulebook. Both approaches ultimately face the same challenge: how should a binary market resolve events that do not fit neatly into a yes-or-no outcome? This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.

Kalshi crossed $100 billion in lifetime notional volume and logged its first billion-dollar trading days over the weekend, as World Cup markets drove prediction market activity to new highs. The move shows how fast sports contracts have become the sector’s main growth engine, overtaking the categories that previously carried much of the industry’s volume. World Cup Becomes Prediction Markets’ Biggest Liquidity Event The World Cup is turning into the largest volume event prediction markets have seen so far. Kalshi reported $6.38 billion in notional volume for the week ending June 14, up 43% from $4.46 billion a week earlier. That was another all-time weekly record for the platform.JUST IN: @Kalshi set a new record of over $6.1B in Weekly Notional Volume pic.twitter.com/nhWcUEQKbt— KalshiData (@kalshidata) June 15, 2026Polymarket’s notional trading volume also reached about $2.33 billion on a weekly basis, according to Token Terminal data. The two platforms handled over $8 billion combined.Sports contracts drove most of the increase. On Kalshi, sports volume rose 52% to $3.38 billion, while its parlay-style Exotics category topped $2 billion in weekly volume for the first time. That is changing the industry’s volume mix. Politics and crypto still matter, but the World Cup is showing that global sports events can bring liquidity at a scale once associated mainly with major election cycles.Kalshi Records its First Billion-Dollar Trading Days On Saturday, Kalshi recorded its first billion-dollar trading day, with $1.224 billion in notional volume. On Sunday, it broke the record again, reaching $1.236 billion, according to DeFi Rate.The weekend also came with a packed sports calendar: several World Cup group-stage matches, plus other major sporting events. Daily volume nearly doubled from the previous weekend, underlining how closely prediction market activity is becoming tied to major sports schedules.The World Cup has been the main driver of prediction market activity over the past two weeks, helping both Kalshi and Polymarket reach record volume levels. The surge suggests that major sporting events can generate the kind of liquidity previously associated primarily with election cycles. This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.

After a public listing last year, eToro (Nasdaq: ETOR) is now considering multiple acquisitions in the wealth-tech space, its co-founder and CEO, Yoni Assia, confirmed. It is already in talks with two firms, one in the United States and the other elsewhere, and is working with investment bankers to seal the deals.The company also confirmed to Finance Magnates that it is considering several potential deals. However, it did not share any specifics, saying "it's too early."“We Have a Number of Potential Deals”“We are very acquisitive — it is part of the reason why we listed,” Assia told the Financial Times. “We have a number of potential deals we are looking at, including businesses that would help us grow our wealth offering. We remain committed to growing our global footprint, including expanding in the US market.”However, he did not elaborate on the size of these acquisitions.Read more: eToro Assets Reclaim $20 Billion in May as Crypto Trading Keeps SlidingAnother area where the Nasdaq-listed broker is considering expanding is traditional payments. It could now also apply for banking licences. Revolut and Brazilian giant Nubank are among other fintechs to apply for banking charters.“The key is diversification into more payment services,” Assia continued, “and that could see us consider applying for banking licences in the future, or buying a bank.”He, however, stressed that eToro's focus would be more on payments than on lending. The move would also help the firm hedge against asset movements.Positioning as a Broad FintecheToro currently offers trading with a massive portfolio of assets, including stocks, cryptocurrencies and contracts for differences (CFDs). The company, meanwhile, is positioning itself as a fintech with a multi-asset offering rather than just another broker.In the first three months of 2026, the company generated a net income of $82 million on revenue of $258 million. Although commodities trading accounted for about 60 per cent of trading commissions, with volumes nearly quadrupling year over year, crypto volume on the platform declined.Founded in 2007, eToro has also completed half a dozen acquisitions. Most of its acquisitions were before its public listing, with only the purchase of Zengo, a self-custodial crypto wallet provider, taking place earlier this year.“There is going to be a big wave of consolidation,” Assia said. “Not all businesses will be able to exist as independent public businesses.” This article was written by Arnab Shome at www.financemagnates.com.

The CFTC gave prediction market participants something to read over the weekend: a 267-page proposed framework for how event contracts should be regulated. The document covers a lot of ground. So does the market itself — more than half of global prediction market volume currently runs through offshore platforms operating outside any formal regulatory framework. Here's what happened this weekThe CFTC Publishes Its Rulebook On June 10, the CFTC released its long-awaited proposal for regulating prediction markets, publishing a 267-page framework that would formally define how federally regulated event contract platforms should operate..@CFTC Seeks Public Comment on Notice of Proposed Rulemaking Concerning Event Contracts Involving Enumerated Activities: https://t.co/bZk2SVkWuR— CFTC (@CFTC) June 10, 2026 The proposal would amend Regulation 40.11 and introduce new criteria for evaluating contracts tied to terrorism, war, assassination, gambling, and illegal activity. Exchanges, brokers, trading firms, and industry groups have 90 days to comment on the framework. Rather than imposing a blanket ban, the framework establishes a process for reviewing markets on a case-by-case basis under a public-interest standard. The framework shifts the debate from enforcement and litigation to formal rulemaking. At the same time, its scope remains largely focused on federally regulated platforms such as Kalshi. Offshore venues and decentralized prediction markets, where a substantial share of activity takes place, would remain largely outside its reach.Prediction Markets Move Into Prop Trading Prediction markets are expanding beyond brokers and exchanges into the proprietary trading industry. Trade Tech Solutions integrated event contracts into the Match-Trader platform, allowing prop firms to offer prediction markets directly inside their existing trading infrastructure. The contracts are structured as binary YES/NO markets and settle automatically once an outcome is confirmed. Rather than operating as a standalone product, they sit alongside the evaluation programs, challenge accounts, and payout systems already used by prop firms. The launch follows a broader trend of technology providers adding prediction markets to their product stacks. Event contracts are now reaching traders through prop firms, not just through brokers and dedicated prediction market platforms.Kalshi Wants to Catch Insiders Before They Trade Kalshi is introducing a new screening process designed to identify potential insiders before they are allowed to trade certain contracts. Under the policy, users seeking access to markets considered vulnerable to insider information may be required to disclose their employer and other background information. The exchange says it will use a risk-scoring system to determine which contracts require additional checks. The company cited markets tied to corporate events as an example, where employees or other insiders could have access to information unavailable to the broader market. The move reflects a broader shift in how prediction market operators approach market integrity. Rather than focusing only on suspicious trades after they occur, Kalshi is attempting to identify potential conflicts before orders ever reach the market.Number of the Week $34 billion is an estimated annual prediction market volume generated by U.S. users on offshore platforms that are not supposed to serve the country, according to a new report by consulting firm Crane Zeng. The report estimates that Polymarket alone accounts for between $11 billion and $27 billion of that activity. The findings highlight the scale of demand that continues to exist outside regulated U.S. prediction market venues. Quote of the Week The CFTC’s newly released framework immediately drew criticism from lawmakers who argue the agency has become too accommodating toward prediction market operators.Too slow, too meager & too dangerous. The CFTC is showing once again that it’s nothing more than a tool of Kalshi & Polymarket, encouraging addictive gambling, fraudulent bets & national security risks rather protecting consumers & public safety. https://t.co/s3NkXUntV9— Richard Blumenthal (@SenBlumenthal) June 10, 2026Bottom Line The CFTC wants to regulate prediction markets. Kalshi wants to be regulated, and is already using that status to screen out the wrong kind of participants. U.S. traders, meanwhile, keep routing $34 billion a year through platforms that aren't supposed to serve them at all. Everyone says they want clarity. Not everyone is in a hurry to get it. This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.

The agency's new framework regulates the compliant players and leaves the offshore market untouched. New data shows just how much that costs. The CFTC released its long-awaited prediction market framework this week, setting out how federally regulated event contract platforms should operate across 267 pages. There is no mention of Polymarket..@CFTC Seeks Public Comment on Notice of Proposed Rulemaking Concerning Event Contracts Involving Enumerated Activities: https://t.co/bZk2SVkWuR— CFTC (@CFTC) June 10, 2026 Meanwhile in an April 30 comment letter, Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara argued that restricting regulated exchanges without addressing offshore platforms would simply push more activity outside the CFTC’s oversight. State regulators, members of Congress, casino industry lobbyists, and some sports leagues also called for stricter rules. The new rule proposal makes no mention of the issue, and the CFTC has not indicated any plan to address it separately. Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, now faces a new regulatory framework with potential restrictions on certain sports markets. Polymarket, operating offshore, faces none of it. The Numbers Behind the Blind Spot A June 2026 research brief from Crane & Zeng Consulting, commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets, puts the first rigorous estimate on what that regulatory gap actually looks like in dollar terms. As there is no direct way to identify offshore users the researchers triangulated from sports betting composition and hourly trading patterns. Their central estimate: approximately 30% of Polymarket's trailing twelve-month (TTM) volume of $55.6 billion is attributable to U.S.-based users. That translates to a range of $11–34 billion in annual offshore volume generated by American participants on a platform they are technically not supposed to access. The broader offshore ecosystem processed an estimated $93.9 billion in TTM volume against $74 billion on CFTC-regulated platforms. Offshore activity still exceeds regulated by a factor of roughly 1.3.Tighter Rules on Kalshi, Looser for Everyone Else The regulatory asymmetry has a practical consequence that runs counter to the CFTC's stated consumer protection goals. From 2024 to 2025, CFTC-regulated prediction market volume grew 866% far outpacing the 179% growth on offshore platforms over the same period. Kalshi's monthly volume rose roughly 22-fold between May 2025 and April 2026. The data suggests that regulated access, when available and competitive, does pull users away from offshore alternatives. The new framework risks reversing that dynamic. Additional restrictions on sports markets, age requirements, and product design apply to regulated platforms, and none of them apply offshore, making unregulated venues comparatively more attractive. The Crane & Zeng report projects that U.S.-attributable offshore volume could reach $133 billion annually by 2030 if current trends hold. The CFTC's framework gives regulated platforms a clearer rulebook. But it doesn't address the fact that stricter rules on compliant players will push more U.S. volume toward platforms that have no rulebook at all. This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.

Prediction market operator Kalshi is introducing a new measure designed to identify potential insiders before trades are placed. The platform will begin collecting employment information from traders seeking access to certain contracts. The policy applies to markets that the company considers vulnerable to insider information or manipulation and forms part of a broader market integrity initiative announced this week. Kalshi Wants to Stop Insider Trading Before It Happens According to the company, the goal is to identify “presumptive insiders” and prevent them from participating in certain markets before any trades are executed. Kalshi said it will use a risk-scoring system to determine which markets require additional controls.The company cited a hypothetical market on whether OpenAI or Anthropic will go public first as an example of a contract where participants may possess non-public information relevant to the outcome. By collecting employment information before trading begins, Kalshi says it can better determine whether a trader may have access to information unavailable to the broader market.Factors considered in the assessment include corporate performance metrics, product launches, outcome concentration, national security implications, and the potential for manipulation. The company is also applying similar assessments to markets that could present national security concerns, arguing that additional screening may help reduce both manipulation risks and potential conflicts between real-world events and market activity.As Head of Enforcement Robert DeNault explained, employment disclosures are only one part of the initiative.Today, we announced that Kalshi will now require employment information in order to trade in certain markets. Market integrity is a more than just a lofty goal for us. It’s the reason we collect identification info from every trader, why we surveil our markets 24/7, and why we…— robertjdenault (@robertjdenault) June 9, 2026 Part of a Broader Integrity Program Kalshi said the new measures were recommended by an independent Surveillance Audit Committee established to oversee the exchange’s market integrity and enforcement programs. Alongside the employment disclosure requirement, the company introduced a whistleblower portal and expanded reporting tools intended to help users report suspicious trading activity directly to its surveillance team. The company has increasingly emphasised enforcement as prediction markets grow in popularity. According to Kalshi, it opened more than 150 investigations into potentially suspicious activity during the first quarter of the year and referred more than 20 cases to law enforcement."By implementing these new integrity measures, we continue to lead the industry on the issue of market integrity amongst federally regulated prediction markets," DeNault said, according to Reuters. The platform already screens certain categories of users during onboarding and may restrict access or impose special trading rules on some politicians, government officials, athletes, and individuals connected to sports-related markets. Prediction markets continue to face scrutiny over insider trading as the sector expands. Recent cases have included an investigation into trades allegedly linked to former Congressman George Santos on Kalshi and charges against a Google employee accused of using company information to place bets on rival platform Polymarket.The announcement also comes at a time when prediction market operators face increasing attention from policymakers. Earlier this month, the House Oversight Committee requested information from both Kalshi and Polymarket about their identity verification procedures, trade surveillance systems, and measures designed to prevent insider trading. Against that backdrop, Kalshi’s latest policy represents an attempt to identify potential insider risks before trading begins rather than relying solely on investigations after the fact. This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.

eToro said the value of customer assets on its platform reached $20.1 billion in May, up 18% from a year earlier, as heavy stock and commodities trading offset another drop in crypto activity. The preliminary figures also showed the trading app leaning on two recent acquisitions to lift its headline account growth.The monthly snapshot extends a pattern that has run through eToro's data all year, with traditional markets activity rising while digital assets fade. Capital markets trades, a bucket covering stocks, commodities and currencies, rose 59% from May 2025 to 64 million. Crypto trades fell 31% to 2.2 million over the same stretch, deepening a pivot from crypto toward traditional markets that the Nasdaq-listed broker has reported since the start of 2026.Smaller Trades Power the Volume SurgeThe jump in trade counts came with a catch. The average amount invested per capital markets trade fell 36% to $201, while the figure for crypto dropped 28% to $203. eToro's users, in short, are placing far more orders, but each one is much smaller than it was a year ago.The company has tied that compression to a growing share of copy trading and automated activity, which spreads money across many small positions.[#highlighted-links#] It made the same point about its first-quarter results, when capital markets trades climbed 90% and the per-trade figure fell sharply. The shift has also colored how investors read the data, with trade sizes roughly halving over recent quarters.Source: eToro Group, preliminary May 2026 metrics. Figures rounded; percentages based on unrounded numbers.Account Growth Leans on AcquisitionseToro reported 4.23 million funded accounts at the end of May, up 17% from 3.61 million a year earlier. Buried in a footnote, though, is that 110,000 of those accounts came from its purchases of Zengo and Bit2C, two Israeli crypto businesses.Strip out the acquired users and the base sits closer to 4.12 million. The deals therefore account for roughly a fifth of the year-over-year increase in funded accounts, leaving organic onboarding more modest than the headline rate implies.eToro defines funded accounts as users who have deposited money and placed at least one trade, but for the Zengo and Bit2C customers it counts anyone with a positive balance. The Zengo deal, which closed at the end of April, handed eToro a self-custodial wallet it has linked to prediction markets and other decentralized products.Crypto Trading Fades Across Retail PlatformseToro is not alone in watching crypto volumes cool. The slide has shown up across the multi-asset retail brokers that rode the digital asset boom, even as several of them keep expanding their crypto lineups.Robinhood Markets, the US trading app eToro is most often measured against, reported that its crypto revenue fell 47% to $134 million in the first quarter, with the gap covered by event contracts and options. Interactive Brokers, meanwhile, posted 31% account growth even as trading activity eased after a busy March. The common thread is that volatility in commodities and equities is propping up revenue while crypto lines compress.Deposits Double as Interest Assets BuildMoney moving through the platform picked up sharply. Total money transfers, which track deposits, withdrawals and currency funding through the eToro Money account, doubled from a year earlier to $1.6 billion.Interest earning assets, the balances eToro can earn a yield on, rose 14% to $7.2 billion. Those balances have become a bigger part of the business as the broker pushes subscriptions and cash features, echoing the recurring-revenue model it borrowed from Robinhood with its Platinum tiers. This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.

With a record-breaking $29.4 billion in trading volume in May, prediction markets are expanding faster than the infrastructure supporting them. But the gap is closing. Retail brokers like Moomoo are rushing to onboard mass-market traders, while heavyweight market makers and OTC desks are stepping in to provide the institutional-grade liquidity and privacy that these soaring volumes demand. The developments span different parts of the market, but they point to the same trend: more firms are finding reasons to engage with prediction markets, whether as distributors, liquidity providers, or trading counterparties. Here’s what mattered this week. Brokers Keep Adding Prediction Markets Moomoo has partnered with Kalshi to bring prediction markets to its users, becoming the latest broker to add event contracts alongside traditional trading products. The integration gives eligible customers access to contracts tied to economic data, elections, Federal Reserve decisions, and other real-world events directly from the broker’s existing platform. The move continues a broader trend across the industry. Robinhood has already launched a prediction markets hub powered by Kalshi, while Interactive Brokers recently integrated contracts from Kalshi, CME Group, and ForecastEx into a single trading interface. Tradeweb has also taken a stake in Kalshi and entered a strategic partnership focused on institutional distribution. Institutional Traders Build Around Prediction Markets Wintermute and Galaxy Digital expanded their prediction market activities this week, but in very different ways. Wintermute has begun providing liquidity on Kalshi and Polymarket, joining firms such as Jump Trading and Susquehanna in supporting trading activity on public platforms. The firm processes more than $3.5 trillion in annual trading volume across digital asset markets. Its arrival comes as prediction market volumes have grown beyond $20 billion per month, while liquidity has often lagged behind that growth. Galaxy, meanwhile, is taking a different approach. The firm launched an OTC swap business for event-driven contracts and executed a $10 million trade tied to the passage of a U.S. crypto bill - nearly five times the size of the comparable contract available on Kalshi. The contrast highlights a growing divide in market structure. Some firms are working to deepen liquidity on exchanges. Others are building off-exchange infrastructure for institutions that need larger trade sizes, privacy, and familiar derivatives documentation. Sportsbooks Adjust Their World Cup Playbook Prediction markets are beginning to influence how sportsbooks prepare for major sporting events. World Cup winner contracts on Polymarket have already generated roughly $1.5 billion in trading volume, giving traditional operators a new competitor during one of the industry’s biggest customer-acquisition periods.Sportsbooks are responding by expanding product offerings and promotions. Flutter plans to introduce additional in-play markets and micro-betting options during the tournament, while operators continue to emphasise rewards programs and free bets as differentiators. At the same time, the gap between the two models is narrowing. Polymarket has introduced combination contracts, while DraftKings and FanDuel have both expanded their involvement in prediction markets through separate initiatives. Number of the Week $29.4 billion is the total prediction market trading volume in May, according to data compiled by Artemis. The figure marks a new monthly record for the industry and extends a streak of four consecutive months of growth. Kalshi accounted for $17.3 billion of that volume, while Polymarket processed $8.4 billion. The record comes as brokers, market makers, and sportsbooks increasingly adjust their strategies around a market that is growing well beyond its niche origins. Use Case of the Week A New York bar offered customers free drinks if the Knicks won — and hedged the promotion through Kalshi. The trade effectively offset the cost of the giveaway, turning a customer-acquisition campaign into a manageable risk rather than an open-ended expense. The example is small, but it highlights a broader idea prediction market operators have been pushing for years: event contracts can be used for hedging by ordinary businesses, not just traders and hedge funds.An NYC bar offered free drinks if the Knicks won and hedged it on @Kalshi so the promo paid for itselfShipped Bizhedge: tell it your business, and it finds live @kalshi markets you can use to cover a risk or run a promotion. Link belowNot a product, company or investment… pic.twitter.com/QCZgtD1ELH— Lauris (@lzminsky) June 4, 2026Bottom Line The common thread running through this week’s developments is infrastructure. Brokers are adding prediction markets alongside stocks and options. Market makers are improving liquidity. OTC desks are building institutional trading channels. Even sportsbooks are adapting products and promotions in response to growing competition. The debate over regulation remains unresolved, but firms are increasingly acting as though prediction markets are a permanent part of the financial landscape. This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.

World Cup winner contracts on Polymarket have already generated roughly $1.5 billion in trading volume. For major sportsbooks, that is becoming difficult to ignore. For operators such as Flutter and DraftKings, the event is traditionally one of the industry’s biggest customer-acquisition opportunities. This time, however, sportsbooks are preparing for a different competitive environment. Prediction market platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi have rapidly expanded their sports offerings over the past two years. Sports contracts have become the largest category on both platforms, and World Cup markets are already attracting significant trading activity. Sportsbooks Expand Products and Promotions Sportsbooks are responding by expanding products designed to keep customers engaged during the tournament. Flutter plans to introduce new interactive betting formats, including penalty shootout markets and additional micro-betting options. The company is also increasing its focus on accumulators, one of the most profitable product categories in sports betting. The challenge is that prediction markets are increasingly offering similar products. Polymarket recently introduced combination contracts, known as “combos,” which allow users to bundle multiple outcomes into a single position. Some operators are also entering the prediction market business directly. DraftKings recently filed event-contract templates with the CFTC through its DKeX exchange, while both DraftKings and FanDuel now offer prediction-market products in selected jurisdictions.A New Competitor for World Cup Betting Executives argue that traditional sportsbooks still have advantages. BetMGM chief executive Adam Greenblatt recently said promotions, rewards programs, and free bets remain important differentiators compared with prediction markets. Not everyone is convinced the industry’s response will improve profitability. One gambling executive told the Financial Times that operators have historically overspent on customer acquisition around major tournaments and warned that competition from prediction markets could intensify that trend. The World Cup is expected to generate record betting volumes. It may also become the clearest test yet of whether sportsbooks can defend market share as prediction markets move further into mainstream sports wagering. This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.

Finseta fell into a loss in 2025 as the cost of expanding into Dubai, Canada and corporate banking outran a 9% rise in revenue, ending a run of profitability for the foreign exchange and payments firm.The AIM-listed company (AIM: FIN), formerly known as Cornerstone FS, reported a net loss of £1.1 million for the year ended December 31, reversing a £1.0 million profit in 2024. Adjusted EBITDA, the measure management leans on, fell to £0.2 million from £2.0 million. Chief Executive James Hickman said the company is now winning larger corporates, citing momentum from "attracting larger corporates that have more complex requirements." Finseta 2025 Loss Reflects B2B Pivot, Margin DeclineRevenue reached £12.4 million, up from £11.4 million, a slowdown from the 26% underlying growth posted a year earlier. The pace was largely set in the first half, when Finseta flagged a 16% jump in interim revenue.Investment Bill Tips the Group Into the RedOperating expenses rose to £8.9 million from £6.3 million, which the company attributed to planned investment in new markets and capabilities. Finseta said those outlays should lift sales growth and profitability over the medium term, though it did not attach specific targets to that forecast.Cash fell to £1.5 million from £2.6 million, and the group ended the year with net debt of £0.3 million, against net cash of £0.6 million a year earlier.[#highlighted-links#] After the period closed, Finseta raised £0.9 million before expenses through a placing and retail offer priced at 8.5 pence a share, money it earmarked partly for an application to operate in Europe.The customer base offers a mixed read. Active customers reached 1,101, up from 1,059, but the company had already hit that number by mid-year, which points to flat acquisition in the second half. Average revenue per customer rose over the period.Corporate Card Stumbles as Uptake Falls ShortOne product Finseta promoted heavily during the year is now in question. The company took a £0.2 million impairment against its corporate card after demand came in below expectations, and it said it ran into operational problems with key suppliers to the card program. Management is now weighing how to provide the service going forward.The card also carries a separate liability. Finseta booked a £0.1 million provision tied to €150,000 it received from a card partner to help launch the product, money it may have to repay in 2029 if it misses transaction-volume targets the company currently expects to miss.Corporate Clients Now Carry the BusinessThe headline numbers mask a sharp change in who Finseta serves. Revenue from corporate accounts rose 54% and made up 57% of the total, up from 41% in 2024. High-net-worth individuals, historically the more profitable segment, slipped to 43% from 59% as those clients pulled back on transactions the company linked to tariff-related volatility in currencies. That mix shift explains the thinner gross margin, since corporate work pays less per trade but tends to recur.The B2B tilt puts Finseta on the same ground as larger London-listed peers. Alpha Group reported a 34% revenue jump to £86.2 million in the first half of 2025, driven by corporate clients hedging currency risk, and is being acquired by Corpay. Equals Group, another AIM payments name that pivoted toward business customers, was taken private after a bidding contest, part of a wider thinning of small-cap London fintech.Where Alpha and Equals built sizeable interest income on billions in client balances, Finseta safeguarded £14.9 million of customer funds at year-end and is barred under its e-money license from passing the interest it earns back to clients. CAB Payments, another 2023 London debutant, drew a $480 million unsolicited approach from StoneX after its shares slid, a reminder of how exposed sub-scale payments listings have become. This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.

“A 24‑hour blackout would honestly feel like losing a limb for most people on a desk,” says Tom Banfield, Head of Financial Derivatives at institutional broker Britannia Global Markets. This is the peculiar, symbiotic reality of the financial professional with the Bloomberg Terminal. To the casual observer, the Terminal might look like a clunky, expensive relic of the 1980s, its glowing, monospaced setup looking more like a prop from the techno-thriller WarGames than a cutting-edge piece of fintech. Yet, for those in the know, the Terminal is not merely a tool; it is a prosthetic.Michael Bloomberg’s retro monolith has been a constant in financial markets over the last three decades. Its relationship with trading desks and analysts is defined by dependency and underpinned by a level of trust that few other technologies have ever managed to cultivate. Naturally, the Terminal’s universal appeal has spawned many challengers. The AI Challenger EmergesThere have been multi-billion-dollar corporate competitors that promised better interfaces and cleaner data; the Terminal survived them all. There was the 2008 financial bloodbath, which saw the disappearance of many of the very desks that hosted these machines; the Terminal rebounded a year later. Even when Wall Street heavyweights attempted to abstract away its functions through internal systems, the Terminal responded, adapted, and retained the throne.The arrival of the latest wave of artificial intelligence has, predictably, sparked a new chorus of opinions regarding the Terminal’s demise. The launch of Perplexity's Computer in February captured the attention of almost everyone with even a glancing interest in AI. Naturally, the tech-utopians were quick to put it to the test.One particularly vocal user on X, known as Hampton, claimed to have needed but one afternoon to build a clone of Bloomberg's Terminal on Perplexity. His declaration was as bold as it was premature: "Perplexity just became the first AI company to truly go head-to-head with the Bloomberg Terminal.Hampton shared a short clip of his terminal clone in operation. On the surface, it was an impressive feat. It managed to replicate basic information feeds and rudimentary charts with the sort of speed that makes Silicon Valley reach for its chequebooks. Perplexity just became the the first Al company to truly go head-to-head with the Bloomberg Terminal...Using Perplexity Computer (with no local setup or single LLM limitation), it was able to build me a terminal with real-time data to analyze $NVDA using Perplexity Finance: https://t.co/AIqBHsPLsy pic.twitter.com/S3l5F5MRiv— ₕₐₘₚₜₒₙ (@hamptonism) February 25, 2026The fact that the AI challengers are far, far cheaper than the Terminal is no longer the whole pitch. They use chat and natural-language queries so users can get answers, summaries, or model outputs instantly instead of navigating dense terminal commands. Where the Terminal demands that the user speak its peculiar, staccato language, the AI challengers offer to speak the user’s. Indeed, the core introductory Bloomberg course is about 8 hours, while a broader set of beginner certificate modules can run closer to 16 hours. That is one steep learning curve. Built‑in LLMs can also summarise earnings calls, generate investment theses, and extract signals from filings or transcripts in seconds. There is also a case to be made about the interface: they are not a one-size-fits-all. While the Terminal offers the same imposing dashboard to every user, AI allows for a more bespoke experience that can be tailored to the specific niche of a quantitative analyst or a retail broker.But to beat Michael Bloomberg's brainchild, price, feeds, and personalisation might not be enough, as a long line of better-funded challengers has already discovered.At What Cost? The most common complaint lodged against the Terminal is, and always has been, the price; the always, infuriatingly high price. The Terminal costs around $30,000 per year for a single seat. In a world where software-as-a-service (SaaS) prices have been driven down by relentless competition, and with AI now threatening to eclipse even those prices, that figure feels almost antiquated.It remains Bloomberg’s bread-and-butter, accounting in some years for up to 90% of the company’s revenue. For some, the cost has become a bridge too far. The Risk Desk at CFD and FX broker Trade Nation, for instance, relied on the Terminal for a decade. However, a recent shift in the charging structure prompted a rethink. “For the past couple of years, the Desk has used Refinitiv (a competitor), which meets their requirements whilst remaining competitive from a price point,” a spokesperson from the broker says.They are not alone in their discontent. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co., shared similar concerns in 2017. He complained in a letter to shareholders that his bank paid around US$9 billion on tech services in 2016, a sum roughly equivalent to a fifth of the gross domestic product of Cyprus. For many financial services firms, information technology is the single largest expense after personnel.Yet, for a significant portion of the market, the Terminal’s exorbitant price is not just a cost; it is a premium paid for clarity.Michał Stajniak, Deputy Director of the Research Department at Poland-based retail broker XTB, concedes that while the Terminal is expensive, “the way it presents and aggregates data, combined with the quality of its insights, justifies even that very high price tag.” For others, the Terminal pays for itself through sheer efficiency. Banfield argues that “the productivity, connective and overall output easily justifies the expense. In modern broking, especially, having everything you need at your fingertips is something I genuinely couldn’t do without.”What the challengers, AI or otherwise, consistently fail to grasp is the depth to which the Terminal is entrenched in the lives of its users. Some have even been known to order their wedding cakes in the shape of the Terminal, a level of brand loyalty that would make Apple’s marketing department green with envy.The Terminal Maketh the TraderFor most, the day does not begin with reading emails or checking the weather; it begins with the Terminal. It is the first thing users check in the morning, whether they are opening Instant Bloomberg (IB) chats or scrolling through overnight headlines to gauge market-moving stories. For Banfield, the ritual begins on the commute. “It’s a simple habit, but a crucial one,” he says. If, as the old proverb suggests, habits maketh the man, then the Terminal maketh the trader.Daniel Aristidou, Quantitative Research Team Leader at Exness, one of the world’s largest retail brokers, highlights the specific functions that anchor this loyalty. “I usually start with TOP <GO>,” he says. “It's a quick way to scan the stories actually moving markets across asset classes, rather than getting lost in noise.”This command, one of the thousands of shorthand codes that users must memorise, is a symbol of the Terminal’s true value: separating signal from noise.The Gravitational Pull of Network Effects While AI challengers like Perplexity Computer or smaller outfits like Fincept can replicate charts and data feeds, they struggle to replace the Terminal’s social architecture: the IB Chat. Consider the case of Symphony. Launched in 2014 by a consortium of heavyweights including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock, with Google even chipping in a cool US$233 million, Symphony was a "Bloomberg killer" that had the muscle to do the deed.It promised a communications infrastructure with better encryption and more transparency for a fraction of the cost: just US$15 a month.Bloomberg’s response was a masterclass in defensive positioning. It simply unbundled its chat service, creating a standalone offering for US$10 a month. In a race to the bottom on price, the incumbent held its ground. As Banfield puts it, "The real appeal or maybe even the gravitational pull of a terminal is the network effect behind it. With clients, counterparties, and firms all using the same platform, it’s become a core part of modern broking floors.”Beyond the chat, there is the matter of vetting. Stajniak points out that even when a piece of news remains unconfirmed, Bloomberg’s commentary will explicitly state as much. This process of curation and verification sets it apart from the wild west of the open internet.Aristidou also points to the support system, a 24/7 direct link to knowledgeable analysts. In the high-velocity world of market volatility, he stresses, that matters far more than people assume. “Speaking from personal experience, what keeps Bloomberg relevant is that it’s not just a tool; it’s an ecosystem,” says Aristidou. “The market is there. The people are there. A lot of interaction happens inside that environment throughout the day, and that matters more than people think. No one’s been able to reproduce the same level of support, documentation, stability, and integrated tooling.”Replicating the Terminal is Out of The QuestionLife without the Terminal would not grind to a halt, as most serious firms have redundancies, but it would certainly lose its lustre. Aristidou notes that without it, workflows would be plagued by friction. “You’re suddenly stitching together information from multiple systems, which adds friction; in fast markets, even a small delay in understanding what is happening can matter.”Stajniak echoes this sentiment. While analysts can rely on alternative data sources, for traders, the Terminal is "indispensable." Bloomberg employs hundreds of people to curate data and write reports, a human infrastructure that an afternoon of vibe coding cannot replicate. “While it’s possible to build your own proprietary systems for a small niche or a specific market segment, building a tool with the sheer breadth and scope of Bloomberg is out of the question,” he stresses. Banfield concurs, noting that even after 44 years, the Terminal remains the benchmark. On almost any desk of consequence, you will find at least one.So, What About the New AI Challengers? The consensus on AI is one of cautious utility rather than existential dread. Finetuned dashboards and custom models have been around long before the current AI revolution. Stajniak notes that while the pace of AI updates is dizzying, Bloomberg’s greatest asset is its reliability. It is dependable, especially when the market decides to lose its mind.Aristidou acknowledges that Large Language Models (LLMs) are "genuinely useful" for speeding up workflows or prototyping ideas. However, he makes a sharp distinction between a supporting tool and core infrastructure. Once accuracy, validation and reproducibility become the metrics of success, LLMs often fall short.They remain unpredictable, occasionally modifying unrelated code or producing outputs that are "convincing but need verification." In a world where a misplaced decimal point can trigger a multi-million-euro loss, ‘convincing but wrong’ is a fireable offence. His team at Exness builds custom tools for specific calculations, but they view AI as a supplement rather than a replacement. The focus must remain on robust, testable systems. Banfield is even more direct: "We haven’t attempted to nor intend to replace the terminal with an equivalent LLM‑driven dashboard. Yes, absolutely, tools like Claude and ChatGPT are impressive. However, I feel they serve more of a complementary role rather than a substitute for a terminal like Bloomberg."At the end of the day, the Bloomberg Terminal has survived because it is more than the sum of its data points. It is a social club, a security blanket and a common language. It is a monument to the fact that in the world of high finance, information is only as good as the speed at which it can be acted upon and the trust you have in the person, or the machine, providing it. AI has yet to learn how to be the limb the market refuses to live without. This article was written by Adonis Adoni at www.financemagnates.com.

Robinhood has officially entered the Canadian market after closing its acquisition of crypto platform WonderFi. The company gains immediate access to local licenses, infrastructure, and an established customer base. The deal highlights a growing preference for buying regulated market access rather than building it from scratch. For firms expanding across multiple jurisdictions, acquiring an existing licensed operator can be faster than navigating local approval processes independently. The acquisition brings WonderFi’s two regulated crypto exchanges, Bitbuy and Coinsquare, under Robinhood’s control and adds roughly 300,000 funded customer accounts. The company said it now serves more than 1 million funded customers outside the United States. While the acquisition was announced earlier this year, the closing marks Robinhood’s formal entry into Canada through an already regulated operator rather than through a lengthy licensing process. “WonderFi has extensive experience operating regulated crypto platforms that serve beginner and advanced crypto users alike, making it an ideal partner to accelerate Robinhood’s mission in Canada,” Johann Kerbrat, General Manager of Robinhood Crypto and International, said.Robinhood has officially arrived in Canada. ??We’ve closed our acquisition of WonderFi, marking our entry into Canada through one of the most well-respected crypto platforms in the country. With 1 million international funded customers, Robinhood’s mission is going global. https://t.co/Mp724Od08D— Vlad Tenev (@vladtenev) June 1, 2026Buying Access Instead of Building It Robinhood is not the only firm using regulated infrastructure to accelerate expansion. Last year’s acquisition of Bitstamp expanded the company’s institutional crypto business and added regulatory coverage across multiple jurisdictions. WonderFi serves a similar purpose in Canada. As licensing requirements become more complex across financial services, regulatory approvals themselves are increasingly becoming strategic assets. In many cases, acquiring a regulated business can be faster than building local operations and obtaining licenses independently. The transaction also reflects continuing consolidation across brokerage, fintech, and crypto markets as firms seek scale and regulatory reach.Robinhood already employed more than 240 people through its Toronto engineering hub. The WonderFi acquisition adds a regulated customer-facing business to that existing presence. Canadian customers will eventually be migrated to Robinhood’s platform, where the company plans to offer crypto trading with a flat 0.5% fee on Canadian dollar transactions. For firms expanding internationally, the transaction illustrates how regulatory approvals, customer relationships, and operating infrastructure are becoming part of the acquisition equation. In markets where licensing is time-consuming and costly, buying access can be faster than building it. This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.

OpenPayd and Titan Acquisition Corp have entered into a definitive business combination agreement, the companies said today (Monday). Under the deal, OpenPayd is expected to become a publicly listed company on Nasdaq and will trade under the ticker “OP” following completion.OpenPayd provides embedded finance infrastructure spanning FX, domestic and cross-border payments, open banking, and stablecoin on- and off-ramps. Its client base includes firms such as eToro, Kraken, OKX, and B2C2.OpenPayd Expands Across 180 CountriesThe company operates a financial infrastructure platform focused on programmable money movement, connecting traditional financial systems with digital asset networks. Through a single API, it enables businesses to access global accounts, real-time payments, and trading capabilities across multiple jurisdictions and payment rails.OpenPayd said it serves more than 1,100 customers across 180 countries and maintains regulatory presence in the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Economic Area, Canada, and South Africa.Deal Awaits Approvals, Closes in 2026Upon closing, the company is expected to receive up to $276 million in gross proceeds from Titan’s trust account, assuming no redemptions by public shareholders. The proceeds are intended to strengthen its balance sheet and support expansion, particularly in the United States, alongside investments in technology, compliance, and licensing.OpenPayd reported more than $85 million in annualised recurring revenue as of March 2026 and processes over $240 billion in annualised transaction volume.Founder Ozan Ozerk said OpenPayd is building infrastructure “connecting traditional financial rails with programmable, blockchain-native networks”.The transaction has been unanimously approved by both boards and is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals. Further filings will be made with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. This article was written by Tareq Sikder at www.financemagnates.com.

eToro (NASDAQ: ETOR) shares closed at their highest level in seven months on Friday, extending a recovery that has lifted the retail brokerage about 70% from the record lows it touched in February. The stock rose more than 5% to finish just below $42, and traded as high as $43.32 during the session, its strongest level since early December.eToro’s Climb Back From February's Record LowsThe latest leg builds on momentum that started after eToro reported first-quarter results in mid-May. The shares now sit above their 200-day exponential moving average, a marker technical traders watch for longer-term trend, and Friday's turnover of almost 3 million shares ran well above the daily average of about 1.1 million.The contrast with three months ago is sharp. eToro fell to an all-time low near $25 in February, when a crypto selloff pulled retail trading stocks lower across the board. The Nasdaq-listed company, based in Israel and incorporated under British Virgin Islands law, has since recovered most of that ground.It still trades well below the $79.96 peak it reached soon after its May 2025 IPO, when heavy demand pushed the listing price above its marketed range.The round trip from there to $25 and back toward $42 captures how closely the stock has tracked sentiment in crypto and retail trading.Governance Votes and a Goldman Target Bump Drive the Latest MoveTwo corporate filings gave investors something to react to. eToro said shareholders approved every proposal at its May 26 annual meeting in Bnei Brak, Israel, with holders of both share classes voting in line with the board's recommendations.Two days later the company filed a revised charter, its Second Amended and Restated Memorandum and Articles of Association, with the British Virgin Islands registrar. eToro said the update refines its governance setup and could add flexibility as it operates as a foreign private issuer in the US. The company framed the changes as administrative rather than a shift in strategy.The bigger catalyst came from Wall Street. Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro raised his price target on the stock to $43 from $39 on May 28, while keeping a Neutral rating. That capped a steady climb in his view, after he had already moved the target to $39 from $35 earlier in the month. Crypto Still Anchors Revenue as US Rivals Pile IneToro's recovery is playing out in a crowded field. Robinhood, its closest US-listed peer, hit a four-year high earlier this year after closing its Bitstamp acquisition, and rivals including Webull are chasing the same retail traders with commission-free equities and crypto. The competition has pushed eToro to expand round-the-clock trading on US stocks and to court crypto depositors with stock rewards.That last point matters, because digital assets still drive the business. Crypto accounted for about 91% of eToro's revenue in recent quarters, a concentration that ties the stock's fortunes tightly to token prices. CEO Yoni Assia has leaned into the cycle rather than away from it, telling analysts on the latest earnings call that "crypto downtimes are the time to build."The first quarter offered some cover for the bulls. eToro reported net income up 37% to $82 million, with net contribution rising 19% from a year earlier to $258 million, helped by a jump in commodities trading. Adjusted earnings of $0.91 a share beat the $0.69 analysts expected. Average trade sizes, though, shrank by nearly half year over year, and assets under management slipped from the prior quarter.Analysts Split on Where eToro Goes From HereThe brokerage's research coverage now spans a wide range. Goldman's $43 target sits near the bottom, while TD Cowen lifted its target to $52 in mid-May, and Needham and Jefferies carry Buy ratings with targets of $66 and $53. The consensus price target sits around $56, according to data compiled by MarketBeat, implying meaningful upside if the more optimistic calls prove right.For now the move has pushed eToro's market value back above $3.3 billion. This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.

Wintermute Trading confirmed it is now providing continuous, two-sided liquidity across major prediction market platformsю This is the latest institutional market maker to move into the rapidly scaling event-contracts sector. The firm processes more than $3.5 trillion in annual trading volume across over 70 exchanges. It is now providing liquidity on Kalshi and Polymarket, extending the same trading infrastructure it uses in crypto spot and derivatives markets to event contracts.Prediction markets are emerging as a distinct asset class, pricing probabilities on events that traditional markets don't capture cleanlyWintermute is now providing liquidity on event contracts across leading venues pic.twitter.com/ekWn2SnCcJ— Wintermute (@wintermute_t) May 29, 2026Growing Pattern Prime brokers Clear Street and Marex have built clearing on-ramps for hedge fund clients. Jump Trading, Susquehanna, and Galaxy Digital are already active as market makers. Citadel Securities has publicly acknowledged "sound industrial logic" for a potential entry of its own. Gambling group Flutter Entertainment recently disclosed it is already generating revenue in the sector — as a market maker, not a platform operator. Monthly trading volumes in prediction markets have surged past $20 billion, but the liquidity profile has historically lagged that growth: wide spreads, limited depth, and meaningful slippage on larger orders. "Prediction markets have the demand profile of a major asset class but the liquidity profile of an early-stage one," said Jake Ostrovskis, Wintermute's head of OTC trading. "For these markets to become a reliable real-time source of probability estimates, they need sustained two-sided liquidity. That depth tightens spreads, supports larger trade sizes, and in turn improves the signal embedded in market prices." Event Risk as a Tradeable Category Wintermute frames the segment as an expansion into what it calls "event risk" trading. Unlike traditional derivatives that track proxy instruments, including equities and rates, prediction markets let institutions hedge or take directional exposure on specific catalysts: a policy decision, an economic data release, an electoral outcome. The firm is drawing on its existing work in blockchain settlement and stablecoin collateral to navigate an infrastructure that overlaps heavily with the digital asset markets it already operates in. Wintermute joins a market that is attracting an increasingly familiar mix of market makers, prime brokers, and trading firms. What remains less clear is how much additional institutional flow the sector can absorb before liquidity catches up with demand. This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.

Money transfer firm Wise is under investigation by prosecutors in Belgium over concerns that its accounts were used to launder the proceeds of fraud, corruption and drug trafficking, the company confirmed today (Monday) after the inquiry was first reported by The Bureau of Investigative Journalism.The case centers on about €500 million in suspicious transactions. Wise accounts had turned up in hundreds of requests for cross-border judicial assistance from more than 30 European countries, according to the report. It is the latest in a run of compliance episodes for the company since its 2021 London listing.Half a Billion Euros in Flagged TransfersBrussels prosecutors opened the investigation last year after noticing how often Wise accounts appeared in criminal proceedings across the continent, the report said. They are now examining "indications of non-compliance with anti-money laundering" rules by the company, according to the prosecutor's office.Anti-money laundering rules require payment firms to verify customers, watch for unusual activity and report it to authorities. The half-billion-euro figure and the spread across more than 30 countries reflect how widely Wise is used, and why investigators have taken an interest in its anti-money laundering controls.Wise, the London-listed firm once known as TransferWise, says it holds more than 80 regulatory licenses and serves over 19 million active customers, processing around 4.7 million transactions a day. Wise reported more than $243 billion in cross-border transactions for its 2026 financial year and said it saved customers over $3.3 billion, figures drawn from its own disclosures.Wise Says the Inquiries Are IncompleteIn its response, Wise said it is working with the Brussels prosecutor and that no specific findings have been shared with it so far. It said "it would be speculative for us to comment on any allegations."Wise also pointed to its corporate structure as the reason so many requests funnel into Belgium. Its European business is based there and serves the rest of the region through the EU passporting system, so law-enforcement requests from across the bloc are routed to Belgium rather than to local offices in each country, the company said.Filing suspicious-activity reports and answering law-enforcement requests are a normal part of operations and do not by themselves signal wrongdoing, Wise said. The company added that around a third of its global staff works on protecting customers from financial crime.A Familiar Pattern of Compliance ScrutinyThis is not the first time Wise's controls have drawn official attention. The National Bank of Belgium, which supervises the firm in Europe, forced it into a formal remediation plan after a 2021 review found it lacked proof of address for hundreds of thousands of customers. The plan required Wise to chase those customers for documents within weeks and freeze accounts that did not comply.In July 2025, several US state regulators fined Wise $4.2 million over anti-money laundering shortcomings and ordered it to review previously closed accounts. Years earlier, Abu Dhabi's market regulator fined Wise $360,000 for gaps in its AML systems, though it found no evidence that laundering had actually taken place.The UK's Financial Conduct Authority has separately opened an investigation into Chief Executive Kristo Käärmann after a personal tax fine. Missing or outdated customer records are a recurring theme, with one analysis finding data gaps behind about two-thirds of UK AML penalties over five years.Rivals Have Drawn Their Own PenaltiesWise is not the only fast-growing fintech facing money-laundering questions as it scales across borders. Revolut, a London-based rival, was fined €3.5 million by Lithuania's central bank in April 2025 for weak transaction monitoring that let suspicious activity slip through.Months later, Australia's financial-crime agency penalized Revolut's local unit for filing reports late under anti-money laundering laws. In Belgium itself, ING agreed in May to a €1.6 million settlement over its failure to flag suspicious transactions tied to a former EU commissioner.Belgian authorities have been tightening financial-crime enforcement, with plans for a dedicated national financial prosecutor and a new criminal code that took effect in April. Wise said it would keep its shareholders and the market informed at the appropriate time. The company has not been charged, and prosecutors have not published any findings. This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.

DraftKings filed its first event contract templates with the CFTC this week. At the same time, U.S. authorities charged a Google employee with using confidential company data to trade on Polymarket, while the gambling industry intensified its criticism of prediction markets. Here’s what mattered this week. The Insider Who Knew Too Much On May 27, U.S. authorities charged a Google employee with using confidential company data to trade on Polymarket. According to the DOJ and the CFTC, Michele Spagnuolo used non-public information about Google’s annual Year in Search rankings to place a series of highly profitable bets on prediction markets, earning roughly $1.2 million. The case resulted in both criminal and civil charges, making it one of the most prominent insider trading actions yet involving a prediction market platform. The case gives regulators a concrete example of the insider trading risks they have been warning about as prediction markets move further into the financial mainstream. DraftKings Moves Further Into the CFTC Model DraftKings is expanding its push into federally regulated event contracts through its DKeX exchange. On May 22, the company filed its first event contract templates with the CFTC, covering a range of sports-related markets. The contracts are expected to begin listing after May 27. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, DKeX operates as a Designated Contract Market under CFTC oversight. That structure allows event contracts to be offered under a single federal framework rather than through separate state betting licenses. The move highlights a broader shift in the industry. Instead of expanding through state-by-state sportsbook approvals, firms are increasingly exploring whether prediction markets can scale more efficiently through federal derivatives regulation.DraftKings Exchange (DKeX) says in a newly-posted CFTC filing that its Market Maker Program will become effective June 8. Virtually all details are confidential. Below are the publicly available fees posted on its website. pic.twitter.com/rv59kRmCGy— Fairplaygov (@fairplaygov) May 28, 2026The Rulebook Is Finally Coming On May 26, the CFTC formally submitted its prediction markets proposal for White House review, beginning the federal rulemaking process. The contents of the proposal have not been published. But the move marks a shift from enforcement and litigation toward formal regulation. For the past two years, prediction markets have expanded through court battles, no-action letters, and agency guidance. Platforms have built compliance programs largely by interpreting how existing derivatives rules might apply to event contracts. That process is now moving into a new phase. Whatever ultimately emerges from the CFTC’s rulemaking effort is likely to become the foundation for how prediction markets operate in the United States.Quote of the Week The gambling industry is becoming more explicit in its criticism of prediction markets. American Gaming Association President and CEO Bill Miller argued this week that the growth of event contracts is already affecting state tax revenues and tribal gaming operations. “It’s about states and tribes that are losing literally a billion dollars today in state and tribal revenue that would otherwise go to fund important community projects.” — Bill Miller, President and CEO, American Gaming Association, said on CNBC Squawk Box. Number of the Week $24 billion is combined monthly trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket, according to data cited by the Pew Research Center. Less than a year ago, the two platforms handled under $5 billion per month. Today, combined volume is approaching $24 billion — one reason regulators, brokers, gambling operators, and exchanges are all competing to shape what prediction markets become next.Combined monthly global trading volume on #Kalshi and #Polymarket, the two leading prediction markets, has risen from less than $5 billion to about $24 billion in less than a year. Prediction markets allow people to trade on the outcome of real-world events, from basketball… pic.twitter.com/6YJvAggspg— Pew Research Center (@pewresearch) May 27, 2026Bottom Line This week brought three pieces of the same puzzle into view. The Google case showed why regulators want formal rules around prediction markets. DraftKings’ CFTC filings showed why firms increasingly want a federal framework instead of state-by-state gambling regulation. And the CFTC’s rulemaking proposal showed that the agency is finally moving from enforcement and litigation toward writing those rules. The debate over whether prediction markets are gambling products or financial derivatives is far from settled. But the market is already being built around the assumption that federal regulation will determine its future. This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.

After two years of enforcement actions, state bans, and competing jurisdictional claims, the CFTC has submitted its event contracts proposal to the White House Office of Management and Budget, formally initiating the federal rulemaking process. The details of the proposal have not been published. But the CFTC's direction has been clear for some time. Chairman Michael Selig said in January that the agency intended to develop formal rules for prediction markets, after withdrawing an earlier proposal that would have restricted political and sports event contracts. In April, Enforcement Director David Miller publicly stated that insider trading rules apply to prediction markets as "event contracts are not gaming", and should be treated as swaps under federal law.Compliance Expectations Are Already Taking ShapeThat distinction has practical consequences for brokers, exchanges, and fintech firms. If event contracts are derivatives, the full compliance stack applies: KYC, trade surveillance, insider trading controls. Platforms are already starting to apply those standards in practice. Kalshi suspended and fined three U.S. political candidates for betting on their own races, citing the move as evidence that regulated prediction markets can enforce insider trading rules as traditional financial venues do. The CFTC recently charged a Google employee who allegedly used non-public company information to trade on Polymarket. Congress separately demanded KYC and trade-surveillance records from both Kalshi and Polymarket following investigations into trades tied to geopolitical events.The Federal-State Fight Is EscalatingThe rulemaking process runs in parallel with an unresolved fight over who actually has authority here. Minnesota, New York, Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut have each argued that prediction markets are gambling products subject to state betting law. The CFTC's position is the opposite: these are event contracts under federal commodities law, regulated as swaps, and states don't have jurisdiction. The White House has backed the federal position. Trump described prediction markets as a "major industry" and argued that fragmented state regulation would undermine U.S. competitiveness in digital finance. For financial firms exploring the sector, the outcome will determine whether event contracts can scale under one federal framework or remain subject to state-level gambling regulation. This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.