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Ranked: Battery Manufacturing Investment by Country
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Ranked: Battery Manufacturing Investment by Country
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Key Takeaways
China is projected to drive 71% of global battery manufacturing investment between 2025 and 2026, more than sevenfold that of America.
Europe is forecast to account for 11% of the total investment, although domestic battery-makers face stiff competition from lower-cost products in China.
Battery manufacturing investment is surging as EVs expand to a fifth of car sales worldwide.
Additionally, energy storage for grids plays another key role in battery demand. Here, large grid batteries store excess energy and release it when the energy supply is low.
This graphic shows the global leaders in battery manufacturing investment, based on data from the Climate Policy Initiative and BNEF.
China’s Massive Battery Production Investment
Below, we show investment projections in the 2025/26 period with a comparison to the 2023/24 period, highlighting China’s dominance in the battery industry:
Country/ RegionInvestment2025-2026P ($USD)Share2025-2026P Investment2023-2024 ($USD)Share2023-2024
China$130.6B71.0%$92.4B84.0%
Europe$20.2B11.0%$9.4B8.5%
U.S.$18.4B10.0%$5.5B5.0%
Rest of World$11.0B6.0%$2.2B2.0%
Southeast Asia$1.8B1.0%$0.4B0.4%
India$1.7B0.9%$0.1B0.1%
Global Total$184.0B100.0%$110.0B100.0%
With 71% of the global share, China is forecast to pour nearly $131 billion into battery manufacturing in 2025 and 2026.
CATL, the world’s largest battery-maker, commands a significant share of the industry. Not only does it provide 30% of the batteries used in EVs globally, about a third of global grid energy-storage systems use CATL batteries.
Meanwhile, BYD also produces a notable share of batteries as part of the EV maker’s vertical integration strategy.
Europe ranks in second, supported by ambitious government policies. However, production costs are roughly 50% higher compared to China, making it challenging to compete. Moreover, the region’s largest domestic battery-maker, Northvolt, declared bankruptcy in March after missing production targets and losing key customers.
In the U.S., manufacturing investment was projected to reach over $18 billion, however these figures were prior to Trump’s subsidy cuts. So far in 2025, at least $700 million in battery manufacturing grants have been canceled, ultimately slowing national production.
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To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the top countries for lithium-ion battery production by 2030.
Mapped: Every Country by Total Fertility Rate
Mapped: Countries by Total Fertility Rate
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Fertility rates are falling almost universally; however, there are a handful of outliers that have seen rates increase slightly in the last five years.
As a general rule: Africa has the highest fertility, and parts of East Asia see some of the lowest birth rates.
Developed countries are almost all below replacement level (2.1 births per woman), with one notable exception: Israel.
Fertility rates are dropping across the world.
Between 2019 and 2024, there were only 12 countries that saw fertility rates grow—meanwhile rates declined or stayed the same in 185 countries.
This map visualization by Idwardi Ishak uses data from the United Nations to show the total fertility rate for countries and other notable jurisdictions globally.
Total fertility rate is defined as the average number of children that would be born alive to a woman during her lifetime if she were to pass through her childbearing years conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of a given year.
Total Fertility Rate Data by Country
The below table shows the total fertility rate for each jurisdiction using data from 2019 and 2024, while also highlighting the five-year change between the years.
RankCountryTotal Fertility Rate (2024)TFR (2019)5-Yr Change
1 Chad6.036.41-0.38
2 Somalia6.016.56-0.55
3 DR Congo5.986.25-0.27
4 Central African Republic5.956.09-0.14
5 Niger5.946.54-0.60
6 Mali5.515.89-0.38
7 Angola5.055.44-0.40
8 Burundi4.795.27-0.48
9 Afghanistan4.765.24-0.48
10 Mozambique4.695.02-0.33
11 Mauritania4.634.98-0.36
12 Mayotte4.564.58-0.02
13 Tanzania4.544.87-0.33
14 Yemen4.504.60-0.10
15 Benin4.484.90-0.42
16 Nigeria4.384.86-0.48
17 Sudan4.264.62-0.35
18 Cameroon4.264.65-0.39
19 Côte d’Ivoire4.234.52-0.29
20 Uganda4.174.74-0.58
21 Guinea4.134.58-0.45
22 Togo4.124.45-0.33
23 Equatorial Guinea4.124.43-0.31
24 Burkina Faso4.114.68-0.57
25 Republic of the Congo4.114.38-0.27
26 Zambia4.044.42-0.38
27 Madagascar3.914.22-0.31
28 Ethiopia3.914.35-0.44
29 Gambia3.914.33-0.42
30 Liberia3.864.26-0.39
31 Comoros3.824.14-0.32
32 Samoa3.804.06-0.26
33 South Sudan3.794.26-0.48
34 Senegal3.774.10-0.34
35 Guinea-Bissau3.764.15-0.40
36 Sierra Leone3.704.19-0.49
37 Eritrea3.684.00-0.32
38 Zimbabwe3.673.75-0.07
39 Rwanda3.653.99-0.34
40 São Tomé & Príncipe3.603.90-0.30
41 Gabon3.593.88-0.29
42 Malawi3.593.95-0.36
43 Vanuatu3.573.79-0.22
44 Pakistan3.553.81-0.26
45 Solomon Islands3.513.80-0.29
46 Uzbekistan3.492.870.62
47 Ghana3.343.59-0.25
48 French Guiana3.343.73-0.39
49 Nauru3.293.53-0.24
50 Palestine3.253.59-0.34
51 Iraq3.223.48-0.26
52 Namibia3.213.40-0.19
53 Tuvalu3.173.33-0.16
54 Kenya3.173.43-0.27
55 Kiribati3.123.29-0.17
56 Tonga3.103.27-0.17
57 Papua New Guinea3.073.32-0.25
58 Tajikistan3.043.28-0.25
59 Kazakhstan2.982.890.09
60 Marshall Islands2.863.01-0.15
61 Micronesia2.832.98-0.15
62 Israel2.793.03-0.25
63 Kyrgyzstan2.783.33-0.55
64 Guam2.752.94-0.19
65 Egypt2.742.87-0.14
66 Algeria2.723.00-0.28
67 Eswatini2.722.93-0.21
68 Botswana2.702.91-0.20
69 Syria2.702.88-0.18
70 Lesotho2.662.92-0.26
71 Turkmenistan2.662.83-0.17
72 Mongolia2.633.01-0.38
73 Timor-Leste2.633.12-0.49
74 Haiti2.632.86-0.24
75 Djibouti2.622.80-0.18
76 Jordan2.602.86-0.25
77 Cambodia2.552.73-0.18
78 Bolivia2.522.69-0.17
79 Oman2.512.70-0.19
80 Honduras2.482.61-0.14
81 Paraguay2.422.53-0.11
82 Laos2.402.59-0.19
83 Guyana2.402.52-0.13
84 Saudi Arabia2.312.49-0.18
85 Libya2.302.54-0.24
86 Guatemala2.292.59-0.31
87 Fiji2.272.39-0.12
88 American Samoa2.272.40-0.14
89 Suriname2.232.35-0.12
90 Lebanon2.232.33-0.10
91 Faroe Islands2.222.40-0.18
92 Dominican Republic2.222.37-0.14
93 Morocco2.212.34-0.13
94 Nicaragua2.212.32-0.12
95 South Africa2.212.26-0.06
96 Western Sahara2.182.28-0.10
97 Réunion2.152.130.02
98 Bangladesh2.142.18-0.04
99 Indonesia2.122.21-0.09
100 Seychelles2.112.26-0.15
101 Panama2.112.29-0.18
102 Monaco2.102.40-0.30
103 Myanmar2.102.21-0.11
104 U.S. Virgin Islands2.082.16-0.08
105 Venezuela2.082.13-0.05
106 Belize2.022.14-0.12
107 Peru1.972.09-0.12
108 India1.962.12-0.16
109 Nepal1.962.08-0.12
110 Sri Lanka1.952.02-0.07
111 Greenland1.932.01-0.08
112 Vietnam1.901.94-0.05
113 Philippines1.892.22-0.32
114 Mexico1.892.02-0.13
115 Palau1.881.98-0.10
116 Tunisia1.822.10-0.28
117 Ecuador1.812.04-0.23
118 Bahrain1.811.84-0.04
119 Georgia1.802.02-0.22
120 Montenegro1.801.81-0.02
121 North Korea1.781.83-0.04
122 El Salvador1.771.84-0.07
123 Bulgaria1.751.580.17
124 Brunei1.731.82-0.09
125 Moldova1.731.78-0.05
126 Qatar1.721.73-0.01
127 Armenia1.721.600.12
128 Romania1.711.710.00
129 Barbados1.711.72-0.01
130 Iran1.681.77-0.08
131 New Zealand1.661.72-0.06
132 Australia1.641.67-0.03
133 France1.641.83-0.19
134 Colombia1.631.71-0.08
135 United States1.621.68-0.06
136 Turkey1.621.89-0.27
137 Brazil1.611.71-0.09
138 Ireland1.601.72-0.12
139 Slovenia1.581.61-0.04
140 Slovakia1.561.57-0.00
141 Maldives1.561.64-0.08
142 United Kingdom1.551.63-0.08
143 Malaysia1.541.78-0.23
144 Liechtenstein1.541.480.05
145 Trinidad & Tobago1.541.58-0.04
146 Denmark1.521.70-0.18
147 Kuwait1.522.09-0.57
148 Portugal1.511.420.09
149 Argentina1.501.88-0.38
150 Serbia1.501.51-0.01
151 Bosnia & Herzegovina1.491.51-0.02
152 Hungary1.491.53-0.04
153 Croatia1.471.470.00
154 North Macedonia1.471.65-0.18
155 Russia1.461.50-0.05
156 Czechia1.461.75-0.30
157 Bhutan1.451.450.00
158 Germany1.451.54-0.09
159 Cuba1.451.54-0.10
160 Switzerland1.441.48-0.04
161 Netherlands1.431.57-0.14
162 Sweden1.431.71-0.28
163 Norway1.411.53-0.12
164 Luxembourg1.401.340.06
165 Uruguay1.401.57-0.17
166 Belgium1.381.61-0.23
167 Cyprus1.381.330.05
168 Estonia1.361.66-0.30
169 Jamaica1.351.39-0.04
170 Canada1.341.48-0.13
171 Latvia1.341.61-0.27
172 Albania1.341.40-0.06
173 Greece1.341.34-0.00
174 Austria1.321.46-0.14
175 Costa Rica1.321.60-0.28
176 Poland1.301.44-0.13
177 Finland1.291.35-0.06
178 Mauritius1.231.35-0.13
179 Spain1.221.23-0.01
180 Belarus1.221.39-0.17
181 Japan1.221.32-0.11
182 United Arab Emirates1.211.25-0.03
183 Lithuania1.211.61-0.40
184 Italy1.211.26-0.05
185 Thailand1.201.29-0.08
186 San Marino1.161.100.06
187 Chile1.141.43-0.29
188 Malta1.111.15-0.04
189 Andorra1.091.050.04
190 China1.011.50-0.48
191 Ukraine0.991.22-0.23
192 Singapore0.950.940.01
193 Puerto Rico0.940.98-0.04
194 Taiwan0.861.05-0.18
195 South Korea0.730.88-0.15
196 Hong Kong (SAR)0.731.06-0.33
197 Macau (SAR)0.680.94-0.26
-- Global Average2.252.40-0.15
The eight highest ranking countries in terms of fertility are all found in Africa, with the top three being Chad (6.03), Somalia (6.01), and the DRC (5.98). Even so, these countries have seen meaningful five-year drops in their rates, averaging around a 0.4 decrease in births per woman.
At the bottom of the rankings, we have four Asian jurisdictions: Taiwan (0.86), South Korea (0.73), Hong Kong (0.73), and Macau (0.68).
Where Fertility is Falling the Fastest
Fertility is falling fastest in a mix of very different regions, highlighting how universal the shift has become.
Some of the sharpest declines since 2019 are in Africa, including Niger and Uganda, where fertility remains high but is dropping rapidly as urbanization and education expand.
East Asia continues to see steep declines from already low levels, with China, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Macau pushing deeper into ultra-low fertility. Meanwhile, parts of the Middle East (such as Kuwait) and Eastern Europe (including Lithuania) have also seen rapid drops, driven by economic pressure, delayed family formation, and migration.
The Developed World: One Big Outlier
In the developed countries, almost all places are now well below the replacement rate threshold.
That said, Israel remains as the one big outlier. In 2024, the country had a fertility rate of 2.79 children per woman.
This is largely because having children is strongly supported both culturally and institutionally in Israel, across income and education levels. Further, high fertility is reinforced by generous family policies, widespread childcare support, and strong social norms, including large families among religious communities.
Learn More on the Voronoi App
What is the population growth forecast for the United States going forward? Find out in this visualization that shows both birth rates and net immigration.
Charted: Global Energy Demand by Fuel Type (2024-2050P)
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Mapped: The 50 Countries with the Biggest Economies by GDP
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Mapped: The Top 50 Economies in the World by GDP
See visuals like this from many other data creators on our Voronoi app. Download it for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
Key Takeaways
America’s economic output stands at $30.6 trillion in 2025, while China’s totaled $19.4 trillion.
Europe is home to five of the world’s top 10 economies by GDP, while Asia houses three.
As power politics moves away from a unipolar world to a multipolar one, the U.S. and China hold distinct spheres of influence.
Since the turn of the century, China’s economy has grown 586%, comfortably sitting as the world’s largest trading partner. Meanwhile, America’s protectionist trade policies are reshaping long-standing alliances.
This graphic shows the top 50 economies in the world, based on data from the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook.
Ranked: The Top 50 Economies in the World
Below, we show the biggest economies worldwide:
RankCountryGDP 2025 (B)2025 Annual Real GDPGrowth
1 United States$30,6162.0%
2 China$19,3994.8%
3 Germany$5,0140.2%
4 Japan$4,2801.1%
5 India$4,1256.6%
6 United Kingdom$3,9591.3%
7 France$3,3620.7%
8 Italy$2,5440.5%
9 Russia$2,5410.6%
10 Canada$2,2841.2%
11 Brazil$2,2572.4%
12 Spain$1,8912.9%
13 Mexico$1,8631.0%
14 South Korea$1,8590.9%
15 Australia$1,8301.8%
16 Türkiye$1,5653.5%
17 Indonesia$1,4434.9%
18 Netherlands$1,3211.4%
19 Saudi Arabia$1,2694.0%
20 Poland$1,0403.2%
21 Switzerland$1,0030.9%
22 Taiwan$8843.7%
23 Belgium$7171.1%
24 Ireland$7099.1%
25 Argentina$6834.5%
26 Sweden$6620.7%
27 Israel$6112.5%
28 Singapore$5742.2%
29 UAE$5694.8%
30 Austria$5660.3%
31 Thailand$5592.0%
32 Norway$5171.2%
33 Philippines$4945.4%
34 Vietnam$4856.5%
35 Bangladesh$4753.8%
36 Malaysia$4714.5%
37 Denmark$4601.8%
38 Colombia$4382.5%
39 Hong Kong SAR$4282.4%
40 South Africa$4261.1%
41 Romania$4231.0%
42 Pakistan$4102.7%
43 Czech Republic$3832.3%
44 Iran$3570.6%
45 Egypt$3494.3%
46 Chile$3472.5%
47 Portugal$3381.9%
48 Peru$3182.9%
49 Finland$3150.5%
50 Kazakhstan$3005.9%
In 2025, U.S. real GDP is projected to rise 2%, falling just under its 25-year average.
Recent trade policy changes under the Trump administration have not yet had a significant measurable impact on overall economic performance. However, some effects, such as higher business costs or shifts in investment, may become more evident in 2026. Consumer spending and investment related to artificial intelligence remain notable contributors to economic activity.
China is forecast to grow by 4.8% in 2025, reaching an estimated GDP of $19.4 trillion. Despite higher U.S. tariffs, China continues to play a central role in global supply chains, particularly in the production and refining of critical mineral.
While Germany stands as the largest economy in Europe, and the third-largest globally, its economy has lagged for years. Weaker exports and low GDP growth paint a dismal picture for the country, even with over $500 billion in infrastructure spending.
India ranks fifth globally, at $4.1 trillion. Since 2000, its economy has expanded by more than threefold.
Finally, Africa has two economies in the top 50, South Africa (#40) and Egypt (#45). Both operate as major trade hubs at each end of Africa, thanks to the Suez Canal and South Africa’s deep capital markets and regional supply chains.
Learn More on the Voronoi App
To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on global growth forecasts for 2025.
U.S. Airlines Ranked From Best to Worst for On-Time Arrivals
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Chart: Which U.S. Airlines are the Most and Least On-Time?
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Key Takeaways
Hawaiian Airlines had the best on-time arrival rate in the first half of 2025, at 83.1%.
PSA Airlines ranked last among 21 U.S. carriers, with only 65.7% of flights arriving on time.
Weather, air traffic control delays, and mechanical issues are the leading causes of late arrivals.
Airline punctuality is more than a matter of convenience—it can affect connections, business trips, and even consumer trust. In the first half of 2025, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics tracked the on-time performance of U.S. airlines, with the data visualized by USAFacts.
Below is a ranking of 21 major carriers from best to worst for on-time arrivals, with an on-time arrival being defined as a flight that landed within 15 minutes of its scheduled time.
Here is the full data, as compiled from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics:
RankAirlineOn-time percentage (H1 2025)
1Hawaiian83.1%
2Horizon81.3%
3Southwest78.9%
4United78.6%
5Spirit78.3%
6Delta78.3%
7SkyWest77.8%
8Republic77.8%
9Mesa77.3%
10Alaska76.7%
11CommuteAir76.5%
12Piedmont76.3%
13Envoy76.3%
14Endeavor75.0%
15Allegiant74.8%
16JetBlue74.5%
17American73.6%
18United Express72.5%
19Air Wisconsin71.3%
20Frontier70.0%
21PSA65.7%
Hawaiian Airlines and Horizon Air top the list, both with over 80% on-time arrivals. On the other end, PSA Airlines lags significantly behind with just 65.7%. Most major carriers, including Southwest, United, Delta, and American, fall within the 73–79% range.
Why Flights Get Delayed
Understanding why flights are delayed helps put these rankings into context. According to both the BTS and ITILITE, there are five primary causes for delays:
Weather-related delays: Poor conditions at either departure or arrival airports.
Air carrier delays: Maintenance issues, crew availability, or baggage loading problems.
National Aviation System delays: Air traffic control or heavy airport congestion.
Security delays: TSA or other security hold-ups.
Late-arriving aircraft: When the inbound flight is delayed, affecting the outbound schedule.
Many regional airlines—like PSA, Air Wisconsin, and United Express—tend to rank lower because they operate under tighter schedules and have fewer resources for disruptions.
How Airline Rankings Compare to Customer Experience
On-time performance is just one part of the travel experience. In a recent Visual Capitalist breakdown of consumer-ranked airlines, Delta, Alaska, and Southwest were standouts for customer satisfaction—aligning closely with their punctuality scores.
That said, some airlines like Spirit and Frontier, while improving their on-time metrics, still struggle with overall service reputation. This shows that punctuality is only part of the equation when travelers choose who to fly with.
Learn More on the Voronoi App
For a deeper look into airport performance, check out our Voronoi ranking of Top 20 U.S. Airports, where timeliness is also a major metric.
Statuegraphic: The Epic Battles of Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius
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Statuegraphic: The Story of Marcus Aurelius’ Epic Battles
Key Takeaways
The Column of Marcus Aurelius was completed in 193 AD to commemorate the emperor’s campaigns during the Marcomannic Wars.
Standing 39.7 meters (130 feet) tall in Rome’s Piazza Colonna, the column is wrapped in a spiraling frieze that visually narrates Aurelius’ military victories.
Restoration work in 2025 used lasers to clean the column’s marble, revealing fresh detail from a monument that has stood for nearly two millennia.
The Column of Marcus Aurelius, one of Rome’s most iconic imperial monuments, immortalizes the Roman emperor’s campaigns during the Barbarian Wars.
The visual featured above is sourced from a meticulous 18th-century engraving by Giovanni Battista Piranesi, archived in the David Rumsey Historical Map Collection, that reproduces the towering structure in incredible detail. We’ve provided additional context on the graphic.
The Story Told in Marble
The narrative on the Column of Marcus Aurelius unfolds in a continuous spiral from bottom to top. Across 21 intricately carved drums of white Carrara marble, Roman soldiers fortify camps, cross rivers, battle Germanic tribes, and emerge victorious, all under the command of the stoic emperor himself.
Unlike Trajan’s Column, which emphasized conquest and administration, the Marcus Aurelius column takes on a more somber tone. It features scenes of execution, slavery, burning villages, and even divine intervention, reflecting the brutal realities of warfare in the 2nd century AD.
Historical and Artistic Legacy
Completed in 193 AD, the column was originally crowned with a statue of Marcus Aurelius, which was lost to time. In 1588, Pope Sixtus V replaced it with a statue of the Apostle Paul, which is still in place today. Despite centuries of weathering, pollution, and urban development, the column remains a centerpiece of Rome’s Piazza Colonna.
Incredibly, laser restoration efforts completed in 2025 have peeled back centuries of grime to reveal newly vivid carvings and detail. This project brought new life to a 1,800-year-old narrative, allowing viewers to better appreciate the craftsmanship and complexity of the ancient storytelling.
A Monument to an Era of Crisis
Marcus Aurelius ruled during a turbulent period marked by plague, border conflict, and economic strain, a theme we also explore in our data-driven piece on currency and the collapse of the Roman Empire.
This column, completed posthumously, is both a tribute and a testament to those challenges, preserved in marble for the world to study.
Charted: U.S. Population Growth by Year (2005-2055)
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U.S. Population Growth Projections to 2055
See visuals like this from many other data creators on our Voronoi app. Download it for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
Key Takeaways
In 2025, the U.S. population is forecast to grow 0.2% amid record-low fertility rates and an aging population.
Over the next 30 years, population growth is expected to decline to zero.
By 2048, population will peak, as net immigration growth and natural population decline (deaths > births) cancel each other out.
U.S. population growth is slowing, and is projected to grind to a halt by 2048.
Today, historically low fertility means births only marginally exceed deaths. Not only that, within the next decade that balance is projected to flip, with deaths surpassing births by an increasing margin.
This graphic shows U.S. population growth projections through to 2055, based on analysis from the Congressional Budget Office.
U.S. Population Growth in Decline
In the table below, we show the rate of population growth in America since 2005 along with forecasts to mid-century:
YearOverall Population GrowthBirths Minus DeathsNet Immigration
20051.1%0.5%0.6%
20061.2%0.6%0.6%
20070.9%0.6%0.3%
20080.6%0.5%0.1%
20090.8%0.5%0.3%
20100.8%0.5%0.3%
20110.8%0.5%0.3%
20120.6%0.4%0.2%
20130.7%0.4%0.3%
20140.9%0.4%0.5%
20150.9%0.4%0.5%
20160.7%0.4%0.3%
20170.7%0.3%0.4%
20180.5%0.3%0.2%
20190.4%0.3%0.1%
20200.4%0.1%0.3%
20210.5%0.0%0.5%
20220.9%0.1%0.8%
20231.2%0.2%1.0%
20240.9%0.1%0.8%
20250.2%0.1%0.1%
20260.3%0.1%0.2%
20270.3%0.1%0.2%
20280.3%0.1%0.2%
20290.3%0.0%0.3%
20300.3%0.0%0.3%
20310.3%0.0%0.3%
20320.3%0.0%0.3%
20330.2%0.0%0.3%
20340.2%-0.1%0.3%
20350.2%-0.1%0.3%
20360.2%-0.1%0.3%
20370.2%-0.1%0.3%
20380.2%-0.1%0.3%
20390.2%-0.1%0.3%
20400.1%-0.2%0.3%
20410.1%-0.2%0.3%
20420.1%-0.2%0.3%
20430.1%-0.2%0.3%
20440.1%-0.2%0.3%
20450.1%-0.2%0.3%
20460.1%-0.2%0.3%
20470.1%-0.3%0.3%
20480.0%-0.3%0.3%
20490.0%-0.3%0.3%
20500.0%-0.3%0.3%
20510.0%-0.3%0.3%
20520.0%-0.3%0.3%
20530.0%-0.3%0.3%
20540.0%-0.3%0.3%
20550.0%-0.3%0.3%
In 2024, there were 3.6 million births in America, falling from 4.1 million in 2005.
Overall, population growth from births exceeding deaths was just 0.1% last year, while in 2005 it stood at 0.5%. At the same time, fertility rates sank from 2.6 births per woman to 1.6 in 2024.
With natural increase fading, net immigration has become a far more important driver of population growth in recent years. Without it, the U.S. population would begin contracting as early as 2033.
Moreover, average population growth is projected to fall from 0.9% annually between 1974 and 2024 to less than one-fifth of that pace through 2055. Over the same period, net immigration is forecast to average 1.1 million people per year, up from 920,000 annually between 2010 and 2019.
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To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on America’s fastest-growing states.
Mapped: The World’s Most Expensive Cappuccinos
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Mapped: The World’s Most Expensive Cappuccinos
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Key Takeaways
Zurich and Copenhagen top the list, with cappuccinos costing nearly $6.80 on average.
Even among the world’s most expensive cities, cappuccino prices vary widely across regions.
Coffee is a daily ritual for millions of people around the world. Yet the price of a simple cappuccino can vary dramatically depending on where you order it. Local wages, rents, taxes, and currency strength all shape what consumers ultimately pay for their caffeine fix.
This visualization ranks the most expensive cappuccinos among the 69 major cities covered in Deutsche Bank’s Mapping the World’s Prices 2025 report. It covers cappuccino prices in 2025, expressed in U.S. dollars for comparability.
Swiss and Nordic Cities Lead the Rankings
Zurich and Copenhagen share the top spot, with an average cappuccino price of $6.77. Switzerland’s high wages and cost of living, combined with a strong currency, push everyday purchases higher.
Geneva also ranks among the most expensive cities at $5.86, reinforcing Switzerland’s position as one of the costliest places in the world for daily consumption.
RankCityEconomyCappuccino Price (USD)
1Zurich Switzerland$6.77
2Copenhagen Denmark$6.77
3New York United States$5.95
4San Francisco United States$5.90
5Geneva Switzerland$5.86
6Abu Dhabi United Arab Emirates$5.84
7Los Angeles United States$5.78
8Chicago United States$5.67
9Boston United States$5.62
10Dubai United Arab Emirates$5.53
11Edinburgh United Kingdom$5.28
12London United Kingdom$5.19
13Helsinki Finland$5.13
14Stockholm Sweden$5.10
15Hong Kong Hong Kong$5.09
16Doha Qatar$5.08
17Vienna Austria$4.96
18Singapore Singapore$4.96
19Oslo Norway$4.90
20Amsterdam Netherlands$4.79
U.S. Cities Cluster Near the Top
Several U.S. cities appear prominently in the rankings. New York ($5.95) and San Francisco ($5.90) lead the pack, followed closely by Los Angeles, Chicago, and Boston.
Despite differences in geography and culture, cappuccino prices across these U.S. cities fall within a relatively narrow range, suggesting similar cost structures in large urban markets.
Europe’s Price Range—and Italy’s Exception
European cities show a wider spread. While London ($5.19), Stockholm ($5.10), and Helsinki ($5.13) rank among the pricier options, Vienna and Amsterdam sit below $5.00.
Notably, Italy stands apart. Even the most expensive cappuccino in Italy—found in Milan—costs just $2.15, while in Rome the average price is only $1.79.
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If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Which Countries Drink the Most Wine? on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.
Mapped: Chances of a White Christmas Across the U.S.
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Mapped: Chances of a White Christmas Across the U.S.
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A white Christmas is one of those holiday experiences that feels universal—until you look at the weather history and actual odds of snowfall on Christmas Day across the United States.
This map shows the historic probability across the U.S. of seeing at least one inch of snow on the ground on December 25, using data from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) is based on the latest U.S. Climate Normals (1991–2020).
These “normals” are three-decade averages built from observations at nearly 15,000 stations, offering a consistent baseline for what’s typical in different parts of the country.
Latitude Matters Most For a Snow on Christmas Day
If you want the simplest rule of thumb for a white Christmas, head north. The northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and large stretches of the interior Northeast generally sit in higher probability bands than the rest of the country.
The data table below features state averages of NOAA’s full 5,000+ row dataset of specific station probabilities of at least one inch of snow:
StateAverage probability of at least one inch of snow on Christmas day
Alabama0.1%
Alaska84.3%
Arizona4.1%
Arkansas1.3%
California4.4%
Colorado48.7%
Connecticut35.2%
Delaware6.5%
Florida0.0%
Georgia0.4%
Hawaii0.0%
Idaho62.1%
Illinois27.2%
Indiana26.0%
Iowa46.9%
Kansas15.0%
Kentucky6.6%
Louisiana0.1%
Maine74.4%
Maryland11.2%
Massachusetts35.8%
Michigan64.8%
Minnesota75.2%
Mississippi0.2%
Missouri13.7%
Montana56.7%
Nebraska35.1%
Nevada17.8%
New Hampshire70.1%
New Jersey13.7%
New Mexico11.3%
New York55.9%
North Carolina3.1%
North Dakota77.3%
Ohio26.8%
Oklahoma3.1%
Oregon14.4%
Pennsylvania34.2%
Rhode Island26.9%
South Carolina0.6%
South Dakota55.5%
Tennessee2.8%
Texas0.8%
Utah46.2%
Vermont76.9%
Virginia8.6%
Washington26.9%
West Virginia26.8%
Wisconsin66.3%
Wyoming56.0%
Areas around the Great Lakes can also improve their odds thanks to lake-effect snow, which can build persistent snowpack when cold air is in place.
Meanwhile, the further south you go, the more quickly the map shifts into darker shades—signaling that a white Christmas is historically uncommon.
Mountains Upgrade White Christmas Probabilities
Elevation can change the forecast more than any state line. The Rockies and the Sierra Nevada stand out as some of the most reliable places for holiday snow cover, with many high-altitude areas reaching the upper probabilities of Christmas Day snowfall.
The Cascades and ranges across Idaho also show strong odds, reinforcing how quickly temperatures drop with height.
Even in the East, the Appalachians make a visible difference—higher terrain can hold onto snow that the surrounding lowlands doesn’t.
Why the South and Coasts Often Miss White Christmas
Across the Gulf Coast, Deep South, and much of the Sun Belt, the map largely sits in the 0–10% range. Warmer winter temperatures mean snow is rarer to begin with—and even when it does fall, it’s less likely to stick around long enough to still be on the ground by Christmas morning.
Coastal climates often tilt milder as well, especially where ocean air moderates winter cold.
And for non-contiguous states, the story is mixed: Alaska’s station network is too sparse to confidently fill in the entire map, while Hawaii’s odds remain firmly at zero.
In other words, the classic “white Christmas” is real—but it’s also highly regional. If snow is the goal, history suggests two reliable strategies: chase colder latitudes, or climb into the mountains.
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For more Christmas-related visualizations, check out this graphic which ranks Spotify’s most streamed Christmas songs on Voronoi.
Charted: The Christmas Tree Market in the U.S.
Charted: The Christmas Tree Market in the U.S.
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Real Christmas trees still make up a $2 billion market in the U.S., despite competition from artificial trees.
The Fraser Fir dominates sales with 35% market share, followed by Douglas and Noble Firs.
Oregon leads U.S. production, and Canada plays a key role in filling seasonal shortfalls.
Each December, millions of Americans venture out to find the perfect Christmas tree, and for a large portion of them, nothing beats a real evergreen. Despite rising demand for artificial trees, the real Christmas tree market in the U.S. remains vibrant, with 21.6 million trees sold in 2023 alone, according to data compiled by USDA’s Ag Census and industry groups.
This visualization by Made Visual Daily breaks down the U.S. market by tree breed and regional production, using datasourced from the USDA and the National Christmas Tree Association.
The Fraser Fir leads all other varieties, accounting for 35% of the market thanks to its excellent needle retention and sturdy branches—ideal for holding ornaments. The Douglas Fir and Noble Fir follow with 27% and 17% market share respectively.
StateShare of U.S. Christmas Tree Production
Oregon31.9%
North Carolina21.3%
Michigan11.9%
Washington6.2%
Pennsylvania4.8%
Other States23.9%
On the production side, Oregon supplies nearly a third of all U.S. trees, followed by North Carolina, Michigan, and Washington.
Real vs. Artificial: A Shifting Holiday Tradition
While over 21 million real trees were sold in 2023, that’s down significantly from past decades. In the 1990s, Americans were buying upwards of 35 million real trees annually. Today, many households are opting for reusable artificial trees due to convenience, cost, or concerns over sustainability.
Despite the slow decline, there are an estimated 350 million Christmas trees currently growing on U.S. farms.
Imports and Supply Chain Realities
Even with robust domestic production, the U.S. often turns to Canada to make up for supply gaps—especially in years when droughts or wildfires affect yields in Oregon or North Carolina. Canadian tree farms, particularly in Quebec and Nova Scotia, are key players in the North American market.
While prices have risen slightly due to inflation and logistical challenges, supply has remained stable. Tree shortages feared during the pandemic have largely abated, though growers continue to manage tighter inventories to avoid oversupply.
Where Your Decorations Come From
Christmas trees are just one part of a complex global supply chain behind the holidays. From lights to ornaments, much of what decorates American homes is produced overseas. For more on this, see our article: Where Do Your Christmas Decorations Come From?
Ranked: Top 20 Countries with the Most Internet Users
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The Top 20 Countries with the Most Internet Users
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Key Takeaways
China and India alone account for more than 2.3 billion internet users, far surpassing every other country.
Large populations, not penetration rates, largely determine which countries rank highest by total users.
In 2025, 74% of the world’s population, or about 6 billion people, is online, up from 71% (5.8 billion) a year earlier.
While internet use continues to grow, more than a quarter of the global population remains offline. Access also varies sharply by income level, with 94% of people in high-income countries using the internet compared with just 23% in low-income countries.
This visualization ranks the top 20 countries by total number of internet users, highlighting how sheer population scale often outweighs connectivity rates. The data for this visualization comes from Datareportal.
China and India Dominate by Scale
China ranks first with roughly 1.30 billion internet users, representing more than 90% of its population. India follows with just over 1.03 billion users, despite a much lower internet penetration rate of 70%.
Together, these two countries account for more internet users than the rest of the top 20 combined.
RankCountryInternet users
1 China1,296,394,000
2 India1,026,954,000
3 U.S.323,888,000
4 Indonesia230,448,000
5 Brazil184,997,000
6 Russian federation135,676,000
7 Pakistan116,839,000
8 Mexico110,345,000
9 Nigeria108,700,000
10 Japan106,933,000
11 Egypt98,211,000
12 Philippines98,025,000
13 Vietnam85,621,000
14 Bangladesh82,806,000
15 Germany78,454,000
16 Turkey77,466,000
17 Iran73,751,000
18 United kingdom68,090,000
19 Thailand67,826,000
20 France63,449,000
Emerging Markets
Beyond the top two, the rankings show how large emerging markets, including Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, and Nigeria, now rival or surpass many advanced economies in total internet users, underscoring a continued shift in the center of global online activity toward the Global South.
Despite rapid global growth, Africa remains underrepresented among the world’s largest online populations. Nigeria is the only African country in the top 10, and just two African nations appear in the top 20, reflecting lower internet penetration rates and persistent gaps in infrastructure, affordability, and access across much of the continent.
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Mapped: The World’s Longest Animal Migrations
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Mapped: The World’s Longest Animal Migrations
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Key Takeaways
Traveling up to 59,652 miles (96,000 km) each year, the Arctic Tern experiences two summers annually, following continuous daylight between the Arctic and Antarctic.
Gray and Humpback Whales depend on predictable ocean temperatures, feeding in cold, plankton-rich Arctic waters and breeding in warm tropical lagoons thousands of kilometers away.
The world’s great migrations are among nature’s most astonishing phenomena. Every year, millions of animals embark on journeys that span oceans, continents, and even hemispheres.
This visualization maps some of the longest known migration routes on Earth. From the Arctic Tern’s pole-to-pole flight to the epic oceanic travels of whales and turtles, these journeys connect ecosystems across the globe and shape entire food webs.
The data for this visualization comes from multiple sources, including Current Biology, NOAA, and National Geographic.
1. The Arctic Tern: The Ultimate Global Traveler
The Arctic Tern is the undisputed migration champion. Traveling between 31,000 and 59,000 miles (50,000–96,000 km) each year, the Arctic Tern experiences two summers. Scientists have tracked these terns following continuous daylight, timing their flights to chase the sun’s warmth and maximize feeding opportunities. Over its lifetime (up to 34 years), an Arctic Tern can fly the equivalent of three round trips to the Moon.
AnimalReturn Trip (km)Distance (miles)Example of Route
Arctic tern50,00031,070Arctic breeding grounds → Antarctic pack-ice zone and back
Bar-tailed godwit30,00018,640Pacific circuit: Alaska → New Zealand → China → Alaska
Northern wheatear30,00018,640Alaska → East Africa
Gray whale20,00012,430Sakhalin (Russia) → Mexico
Humpback whale20,00012,430Samoa → Antarctic waters
Leatherback turtle20,00012,430Pacific or Atlantic transoceanic routes (e.g., W. Pacific → California Current)
Bluefin tuna20,00012,430Mediterranean spawning areas → North American feeding grounds
Globe skimmer dragonfly15,0009,320India East Africa across the Indian Ocean (Multigenerational)
Monarch butterfly9,000 5,590Eastern North America → Mexico and back (Multigenerational)
Caribou1,000 620Annual forest tundra migration
Zebra500 310Botswana river valley → Namibia grazing areas
Distances represent approximate annual migration distances (round trip), which may vary by population and individual.
2. Ocean Voyagers: Whales
Marine mammals such as Gray and Humpback Whales migrate thousands of miles between icy feeding grounds and tropical breeding lagoons.
Gray Whales travel up to 12,000 miles (20,000 km) annually between the Bering Sea and Baja California, while some Humpback populations cover comparable round-trip distances between tropical breeding grounds and Antarctic feeding areas. Their migrations are finely tuned to ocean productivity and temperature, making them key indicators of marine ecosystem health.
3. Feathered and Winged Flyers: Birds and Insects in Motion
Beyond the terns, species like the Bar-tailed Godwit and Northern Wheatear make record-breaking non-stop flights, crossing entire oceans without stopping to feed.
Many bird species achieve extraordinary nonstop ocean crossings by accumulating substantial fat reserves for fuel and employing energy-efficient flight techniques like dynamic soaring.
In addition, other physiological adaptations—such as the ability to temporarily reduce the size of internal organs to lighten their load—help enable these long-distance journeys. Some bird species have also been observed entering brief periods of reduced brain activity while in flight, though the role this plays in nonstop migration is still being studied.
Even smaller creatures like the Globe Skimmer Dragonfly traverse up to 11,000 miles between India and Africa.
4. Land Migrations
On land, animals like Caribou and Wildebeest follow ancient migration paths dictated by seasonal changes.
Some caribou herds can migrate over 1,000–2,500 miles (1,600–4,000 km) annually, among the longest terrestrial migrations on Earth, while the Serengeti’s Wildebeest migration—a circular movement of almost a thousand miles—is among the most visually dramatic wildlife events on Earth.
Similarly, Zebras migrate roughly 310 miles each year, traveling from Botswana’s river valleys to grazing areas across the border in Namibia.
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Ranked: The Best Countries at Math
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Ranked: The Best Countries at Math
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Key Takeaways
Singapore leads the world in math performance.
Asian economies make up the global top five.
The United States falls below the OECD average, ranking 33rd out of the 35 countries on this ranking.
Math skills are a foundational input into modern economies. They support innovation, productivity, and long-term competitiveness. As technology and data-driven work become more central, countries with stronger math outcomes often gain an edge.
This infographic ranks countries by their average math scores among 15–16 year-olds. The data for this visualization comes from the OECD’s PISA 2022 assessment. PISA measures how well students can apply math knowledge to practical problems, offering a global comparison of education systems.
Scores typically range from below 400 to above 600. Top performers in this dataset score well above the OECD average of 472.
East Asia Sets the Global Benchmark
Singapore ranks first with an average math score of 575.
Macau (SAR), Taiwan, Hong Kong (SAR), Japan, and South Korea also appear near the top of the ranking. These economies have consistently prioritized math education through rigorous programs and high academic expectations.
RankCountryAverage PISA Score
1 Singapore575
2 Macau552
3 Taiwan547
4 Hong Kong540
5 Japan536
6 South Korea527
7 Estonia510
8 Switzerland508
9 Canada497
10 Netherlands493
11 Ireland492
12 Belgium489
13 Denmark489
14 United Kingdom489
15 Poland489
16 Australia487
17 Austria487
18 Czech Republic487
19 Slovenia485
20 Finland484
21 Latvia483
22 Sweden482
23 New Zealand479
24 Germany475
25 Lithuania475
26 France474
27 Spain473
28 Hungary473
29 Portugal472
OECD average472
30 Italy471
31 Norway468
32 Malta466
33 U.S.465
34 Slovakia464
35 Croatia463
Europe’s Strong, Steady Performers
Several European countries cluster just above or around the 500 mark. Estonia leads the region, followed closely by Switzerland and the Netherlands. Ireland, Belgium, Denmark, and Poland also post solid results.
How North America Compares
Canada ranks ninth overall with a score of 497, standing out as one of the strongest performers outside East Asia and Europe. The United States ranks lower at 465, below the OECD average.
Countries from Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America are absent from the list, reflecting long-standing gaps in educational performance across regions.
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Mapped: South America’s Biggest Cities in 2025
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Mapped: South America’s Most Populated Cities
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Key Takeaways
São Paulo is South America’s largest city, with nearly 23 million people, far ahead of any other urban center.
Brazil dominates the ranking, accounting for more than half of the continent’s 50 most populated cities.
South America is home to some of the world’s fastest-growing and most densely populated urban areas.
This map highlights South America’s most populated cities, showing where people are concentrated and how urban growth varies by country.
The data for this visualization comes from World Population Review (2025).
Brazil’s Urban Dominance
Brazil stands out as the continent’s urban heavyweight. São Paulo alone approaches 23 million residents, making it not only South America’s largest city but one of the largest in the world. In fact, São Paulo’s population exceeds that of well-known megacities like Mexico City, Moscow, Beijing, and New York.
Rio de Janeiro follows closely, reinforcing Brazil’s central role in the region’s urban landscape.
RankCityCountryPopulation
1São Paulo Brazil22,990,000
2Buenos Aires Argentina15,752,300
3Rio de Janeiro Brazil13,923,200
4Bogota Colombia11,795,800
5Lima Peru11,517,300
6Santiago Chile6,999,460
7Belo Horizonte Brazil6,351,680
8Brasilia Brazil4,990,930
9Recife Brazil4,344,050
10Fortaleza Brazil4,284,450
11Porto Alegre Brazil4,268,960
12Medellin Colombia4,172,810
13Salvador Brazil4,029,910
14Curitiba Brazil3,889,140
15Asuncion Paraguay3,627,220
16Campinas Brazil3,491,580
17Guayaquil Ecuador3,244,750
18Caracas Venezuela3,015,110
19Goiania Brazil2,927,080
20Cali Colombia2,916,790
21Belem Brazil2,453,800
22Manaus Brazil2,434,640
23Maracaibo Venezuela2,432,440
24Barranquilla Colombia2,396,400
25Valencia Venezuela2,030,790
26Quito Ecuador2,017,260
27La Paz Bolivia1,997,370
28Santa Cruz de la Sierra Bolivia1,955,356
29Montevideo Uruguay1,788,170
30Cordoba Argentina1,640,600
31Rosario Argentina1,631,090
32Natal Brazil1,575,050
33Cochabamba Bolivia1,460,280
34Joao Pessoa Brazil1,447,780
35Bucaramanga Colombia1,411,010
36Maceio Brazil1,387,920
37Joinville Brazil1,374,630
38Florianopolis Brazil1,323,850
39Barquisimeto Venezuela1,281,730
40Maracay Venezuela1,270,320
41Mendoza Argentina1,257,180
42Guarulhos Brazil1,169,577
43Cartagena Colombia1,105,540
44Aracaju Brazil1,081,930
45Teresina Brazil1,068,550
46San Miguel de Tucuman Argentina1,051,040
47Valparaiso Chile1,024,430
48Nova Iguacu Brazil1,002,118
49Ciudad Guayana Venezuela991,388
50Arequipa Peru983,715
Beyond these megacities, Brazil places numerous cities throughout the top 50, including Belo Horizonte, Brasília, Recife, and Fortaleza. Population is not concentrated in a single part of the country, with major cities spread from the south near Uruguay to the north near Venezuela.
Major Hubs Across the Southern Cone
Argentina, Colombia, and Peru also feature prominently. Buenos Aires ranks second overall, with more than 15 million people, reflecting its status as a political, cultural, and financial hub. Colombia places multiple cities on the list, including Bogotá, Medellín, Cali, and Barranquilla.
These cities serve as national anchors for commerce and transportation. Their growth mirrors broader demographic shifts from rural areas into metropolitan regions across the continent.
Rising Cities Beyond the Megacities
While the top five cities dominate by size, many mid-tier cities are rapidly expanding. Places like Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Campinas, and Arequipa illustrate how secondary cities are absorbing population growth as megacities become more saturated.
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Ranked: The Top 20 Cities with the Most Billionaires
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Ranked: Top 20 Cities with the Most Billionaires
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Key Takeaways
New York leads the world by a wide margin, home to more than 100 billionaires.
Asia dominates the ranking, with Chinese and Indian cities accounting for a large share of global billionaire hubs.
The global distribution of billionaire wealth is becoming increasingly concentrated in major urban centers. This infographic ranks the world’s top 20 cities by the number of resident billionaires, offering a snapshot of where extreme wealth is clustered in 2025.
The data for this visualization comes from Forbes, based on Forbes’ annual global rich list.
New York’s Unmatched Lead
New York City ranks first by a wide margin, with 109 billionaires calling the city home. Its dominance reflects decades of financial leadership, global capital flows, and a deep concentration of investment firms, real estate wealth, and corporate headquarters.
No other city comes close to this level of billionaire density. Even second-place Hong Kong trails New York by more than 30 individuals, highlighting just how unique the city’s wealth ecosystem is.
RankCityCountryNumber of Billionaires
1New York United States109
2Hong Kong China (Hong Kong SAR)74
3Moscow Russia73
4Mumbai India69
5Beijing China63
6London United Kingdom62
7Shanghai China54
8Singapore Singapore52
9San Francisco United States50
10Delhi India43
11Shenzhen China37
12Los Angeles United States35
13Taipei Taiwan34
14Hangzhou China31
14Seoul South Korea31
16Paris France28
17Tokyo Japan27
18Bangkok Thailand26
18Milan Italy26
20Dallas United States24
Asia’s Growing Concentration of Wealth
Asian cities account for a significant share of the ranking. Hong Kong, Mumbai, Beijing, Shanghai, Singapore, and Shenzhen all place within the top 10. China alone features multiple cities on the list, including Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou.
India also stands out with Mumbai and Delhi representing the country’s expanding billionaire class. These cities benefit from rapid economic growth, large domestic markets, and strong technology and manufacturing sectors.
Europe and North America Still Matter
Despite Asia’s rise, traditional wealth centers in Europe and North America remain highly competitive. London, Paris, and Milan continue to host large concentrations of ultra-wealthy residents.
Expanding beyond the top 20, U.S. cities such as Dallas, Chicago, and Palm Beach illustrate how billionaire wealth is distributed across America’s finance, technology, energy, and real estate hubs. Smaller but influential cities like Palo Alto highlight the outsized role of tech-driven wealth creation.
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Charted: Where People Trust Each Other Most—and Least in the World
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Where People Trust Each Other Most—and Least in the World
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Key Takeaways
Social trust is highest in Northern Europe, led by Sweden and the Netherlands.
Middle-income countries tend to report much lower trust in others.
This visualization shows the share of people across 25 countries who believe that “most people can be trusted,” offering a snapshot of how trust varies around the world.
The data for this visualization comes from the Pew Research Center. It is based on nationally representative surveys of more than 37,000 adults conducted in early 2025.
High Trust in Northern Europe
Northern European countries dominate the top of the ranking. Sweden leads the list, with 83% of respondents saying most people can be trusted. The Netherlands follows closely at 79%, while Canada and Germany both exceed 70%.
These countries tend to have strong institutions, low corruption, and robust social safety nets. High levels of trust make cooperation easier, reducing friction in economic and civic life.
Divided Views in Major Economies
Several large, high-income economies fall closer to the middle of the distribution. In the United States, 55% of people say most people can be trusted, while 44% say they cannot. The UK, Japan, and South Korea show similar splits, with trust still outweighing distrust, but by narrower margins.
CountryCan Be TrustedCannot Be TrustedIncome Group
Sweden83%17%High-income
Netherlands79%20%High-income
Canada73%26%High-income
Germany72%27%High-income
Australia69%31%High-income
Japan65%32%High-income
UK64%34%High-income
South Korea62%37%High-income
Spain57%41%High-income
United States55%44%High-income
Poland50%48%High-income
Israel49%43%High-income
Hungary46%54%High-income
Greece45%53%High-income
France44%54%High-income
Italy43%56%High-income
Indonesia53%47%Middle-income
India38%60%Middle-income
Nigeria31%68%Middle-income
Argentina28%71%Middle-income
South Africa27%72%Middle-income
Brazil22%77%Middle-income
Kenya20%80%Middle-income
Mexico18%82%Middle-income
Turkey14%84%Middle-income
Low Trust in Many Middle-Income Countries
Trust levels are substantially lower across most middle-income countries in the survey. Turkey ranks last overall, with just 14% saying most people can be trusted. Mexico, Kenya, and Brazil also report trust levels below 25%.
In these countries, respondents are far more likely to say that most people cannot be trusted. Pew notes that lower income levels and less access to education are closely linked to reduced trust. Economic insecurity and weaker institutions may make people more guarded in their interactions.
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If you enjoyed today’s post, check out How Quality of Life Has Changed in 30 Countries, According to Citizens on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.
Prediction Consensus: What the Experts See Coming in 2026
Prediction Consensus: What the Experts See Coming in 2026
We analyzed over 2,000 predictions from articles, reports, podcasts, and interviews to see what experts are predicting for the coming year. Below, we dig into a few of the top themes.
For the seventh straight year, we’ve sifted through the forecast landscape to bring you the Prediction Consensus, a synthesis of what analysts, thought leaders, and industry experts expect for the year ahead.
This year, we analyzed over 2,000 individual predictions from a wide variety of sources including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, the IMF, The Economist, Deloitte, Microsoft, Gartner, and dozens more.
By mapping where these forecasts overlap, we’ve distilled the noise into 25 high-conviction themes displayed in our “Bingo Card” format, with the number of dabs reflecting the volume of supporting predictions.
To get the full analysis of the Prediction Consensus and to see what’s ahead for 2026, become a member of VC+ or purchase the full Global Forecast Series report and package.
The General Vibe of 2026
If 2025 was a year of adjustment—markets recalibrating to higher rates, geopolitics reshuffling around a second Trump administration and tariffs, and AI moving from hype to deployment—then 2026 is shaping up as a year of consolidation and consequence.
The consensus mood is cautiously optimistic but shot through with uncertainty. Morgan Stanley describes 2026 as “The Year of Risk Reboot,” a period where market focus shifts from macro anxieties to micro fundamentals, creating fertile ground for risk assets. The policy backdrop is unusually supportive: fiscal stimulus, continued (if slower) monetary easing, and deregulation form what analysts call a “policy triumvirate” rarely seen outside of recessions.
Yet The Economist strikes a more sober tone, warning that 2026 will be defined by uncertainty as Trump’s reshaping of geopolitical norms continues to ripple worldwide. The old rules-based order is drifting further, and the line between war and peace grows ever more blurred through gray-zone provocations, cyber incursions, and an ambient rivalry between nations.
In short: risk assets may thrive, but the world beneath them remains turbulent.
AI: Once Again, the Big Story
For the third consecutive year, artificial intelligence dominates the prediction landscape, but the narrative has evolved. Where 2024 forecasts centered on whether AI hype was justified and 2025 focused on deployment at scale, the 2026 conversation is about integration and consequences.
From Tool to Partner
Across industries, AI is moving beyond answering questions to actively collaborating with people and amplifying their expertise.
This is the year of the agentic AI build-out. Deloitte predicts that by year-end 2026, as many as 75% of companies may be investing in agentic AI (autonomous systems that can plan, act, and adapt with limited human oversight). These AI agents are set to become “digital colleagues,” helping small teams punch above their weight. Microsoft envisions a future where a three-person marketing team can launch a global campaign in days, with AI handling data crunching and content generation while humans steer strategy.
After years of anticipation, productivity gains from AI are finally expected to materialize in measurable ways. Morgan Stanley points to AI-driven efficiency as one of six key drivers of their bullish earnings outlook. Software and internet companies are expected to see generative AI revenue grow more than 20-fold over the next three years.
Of course, AI will impact the job market in other ways as well. Professional and knowledge-worker classes that previously felt insulated are now beginning to feel anxiety around job security.
Market Predictions: Riding the AI Wave
Conveniently, AI also dominates the market story. The consensus is unmistakably bullish, though tempered by valuation concerns and awareness of concentration risks.
S&P 500: Double-Digit Gains Expected
Wall Street strategists are clustered in a tight range for year-end 2026 S&P 500 targets:
FirmTargetImplied Upside
Morgan Stanley7,80015%
JPMorgan7,50011%
UBS7,50011%
CFRA7,40010%
Bank of America7,1005%
The bull case from JPMorgan sees the index potentially topping 8,000 if the Fed eases more than expected. Morgan Stanley calls it their most bullish outlook in years, driven by returning operating leverage, AI efficiency gains, accommodative tax and regulatory policy, and contained interest rates.
Importantly, analysts expect earnings to do the heavy lifting in 2026. Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian projects 14% EPS growth but notes that P/E multiples may actually contract by 10 points, meaning the market climbs a wall of valuation skepticism. Morgan Stanley forecasts S&P 500 EPS of $317 in 2026 (17% growth).
Gold’s Super-Cycle Continues
Gold remains a favorite. Morgan Stanley targets $4,500 per ounce—about 9% upside from current levels. The World Gold Council notes that gold achieved over 50 all-time highs in 2025 and may post its fourth-strongest annual return since 1971.
The drivers are structural: central bank buying, geopolitical hedging, and concerns about fiscal sustainability. In a “doom loop” scenario of accelerating fiscal deterioration, gold could surge 15-30% from current levels.
Economic Predictions: Soft Landing, With Caveats
The IMF projects global growth at 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026—below the pre-pandemic average of 3.7% but not recessionary. Morgan Stanley expects similar numbers: 3.0% global growth in 2025, 3.2% in 2026 and 2027.
Advanced economies are expected to grow around 1.5-1.6%, while emerging markets hold above 4%. The consensus is a soft landing: growth moderates, inflation continues its gradual descent, and central banks ease policy—but not aggressively.
The “Higher for Longer” Era Fades
Central bank policy is expected to continue normalizing. Morgan Stanley’s base case has the Fed cutting to 3.0-3.25% by mid-year and then pausing for an extended period. The BoE is expected to bring rates to 2.75% before pausing. The ECB, facing below-target inflation and sluggish growth, may cut further than markets currently price.
Japan remains the outlier: the only major developed market central bank potentially hiking, with the BoJ expected to reach 0.75% by December before pausing.
Geopolitical & Trade Predictions: Tariffs and Tensions
Tariffs Become the New Normal
Perhaps no theme generates more consensus than this: the tariff regime is here to stay. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are bringing in close to $300 billion in revenue annually, and while they may face legal challenges (Barclays expects the Supreme Court to deem them illegal), the effective tariff rate has peaked at 12.1%—the highest since 1934.
The economic impact is being absorbed more gracefully than many feared. UBS expects a “soft patch” in early 2026 as tariffs affect U.S. prices, followed by a broadening and strengthening of growth from Q2 onward. But the structural shift is profound: trade may reroute permanently, supply chains are diversifying, and the U.S. is explicitly using tariffs as a tool of economic leverage.
China Leans on Exports and Manufacturing
Facing deflation, a property crisis, and slowing domestic growth, China is pivoting to manufacturing and export dominance. The country is positioning itself as a more reliable partner, particularly in the Global South, striking trade agreements as the U.S. retreats from multilateralism.
Morgan Stanley expects China’s real GDP to expand 5% in 2026, helped by front-loaded government support. But the strategy creates global tensions: industrial overcapacity could flood world markets, and tariff battles may intensify.
Gray-Zone Provocations Increase
The Economist warns that Russia and China will test American commitment to allies through “gray-zone” provocations in northern Europe and the South China Sea. Tensions will rise in the Arctic, in orbit, on the sea floor, and in cyberspace.
This “ambient rivalry” short of outright war but beyond normal peacetime friction is expected to accelerate. Great-power competition will increasingly involve space-based intelligence, drone technology, and AI-powered cyber operations.
Assessing the Consensus
History teaches humility about forecasting. Previous years have contained unforeseen developments, and there’s no reason to expect 2026 to unfold precisely as consensus expects.
What’s valuable isn’t the specific predictions, but themes where informed observers are concentrating their attention. Examples include the transition from AI experimentation to building out infrastructure to support its widespread use. Or stablecoins becoming mainstream financial instruments.
Some of these themes will prove accurate; others will be derailed by events. But taken together, they sketch the landscape that institutions, investors, and policymakers are navigating as they position for the year ahead.
2025 in Review: The Ups, Downs, and Returns of Global Markets
Published 3 hours ago on December 18, 2025
By Jenna Ross
Graphics & Design
Harrison Schell
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The following content is sponsored by Terzo
View the full-size version of this graphic
Stock Markets in 2025: The Ups, Downs, and Returns Globally
Key Takeaways
Japan had the highest return of 24% as of December 17, 2025.
The U.S. had a 14% return, the second lowest among major stock markets in 2025.
Amid trade shocks and strained geopolitical ties, stock markets in 2025 faced a test of resilience. How long did it take them to recover, and which key moments contributed to market rebounds?In this graphic, we explore the performance of major stock markets and the milestones that fueled ups and downs throughout the year. It’s the year-end feature of our Markets in a Minute series with Terzo, which delivers quick economic insights for C-suite executives.
Ranking the Returns of Stock Markets in 2025
Using price return data in each market’s local currency, the table below shows the leaders and laggards in 2025 as of December 17.
Japan led with a 24% return, four percentage points above the UK in second place.
MarketYTD Return as of Dec. 17, 2025
Japan+24%
UK+20%
Europe+17%
China+16%
U.S.+14%
India+9%
Source: Yahoo Finance, TradingView. U.S. = S&P 500 Index, Europe = Euro Stoxx 50 Index, China = CSI 300 Index, Japan = Nikkei 225 Index, India = Nifty 50 Index, UK = FTSE 100 Index. The chart uses weekly data.
Meanwhile, the U.S. had a return of 14%, the second lowest compared to other major stock markets in 2025.
The Liberation Day Drop
On April 2, the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs to reduce trade deficits and boost American industry. All of the major stock markets saw declines as investors reassessed trade and growth prospects.
If we zoom in to daily data (as opposed to the weekly data shown in the graphic), Japan and Europe were tied for the largest decline. The UK experienced the longest time to recovery.
MarketLiberation Day DropTrading Days to Recovery
Europe-13%21
Japan-13%14
U.S.-12%18
UK-11%27
China-8%25
India-4%6
The drop is measured from the market’s close on April 1—just before the Liberation Day announcement—to its subsequent low. Recovery is defined as the number of days it took to return to the April 1 closing value.
On the other hand, India had the lowest and shortest drop in response to Liberation Day tariffs. Only 12% of India’s economy is dependent on exporting goods, and merchandise exports to the U.S. make up just 2.1% of the country’s GDP.
Rebounds Around the World
All major stock markets in 2025 rallied in the wake of Liberation Day.
In Japan, the stock market hit a record high on October 6 after Sanae Takaichi was elected as the leader of the ruling party, putting her on track to become the country’s prime minister. The rally was based on investors’ expectations of stronger government spending and stable monetary policy under Takaichi’s leadership.
The U.S. saw strong gains after reaching a trade agreement with China. American markets were also fueled by rate cuts, earnings growth, and strong consumer spending.
This is a special year-in-review edition of our Markets in a Minute series, which delivers quick economic insights for C-suite executives. Explore the full series for more visual market breakdowns.
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All of the World’s Investable Assets in One Visualization
See more visualizations like this on the Voronoi app.
Use This Visualization
Visualizing $261 Trillion in Global Investment Assets
See visuals like this from many other data creators on our Voronoi app. Download it for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
Key Takeaways
The U.S. makes up 64% of global stock market capitalization, a share sitting at historically elevated levels.
European equities and bonds make up 18% of the global investable asset universe.
America commands a significant share of global investment assets, with U.S. equities and bonds accounting for 47% of the world portfolio.
This dominance is driven in part by the S&P 500’s strong long-term performance and the outsized influence of major U.S. tech firms. At the same time, the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency underpins demand for U.S. fixed income.
This graphic shows the global portfolio of investable assets, based on data from Goldman Sachs Investment Research.
The Global Portfolio of Investment Assets in 2025
Below, we show the value of each asset category in 2025:
Asset Class2025 Value
U.S. equities$81.8T
Asia equities (ex Japan)$15.3T
Europe equities (ex UK)$14.1T
Japan equities$6.4T
UK equities$3.8T
Other equities$6.4T
U.S. bonds$41.5T
Europe bonds$28.0T
Asia bonds (ex Japan)$20.3T
Other bonds$6.8T
Gold$15.7T
Private markets$13.1T
Real estate$5.2T
Crypto$2.6T
Total$261T
Global equities total $127.9 trillion, and the U.S. alone accounts for 64% of global stock market capitalization.
In recent years, AI-driven optimism has pushed U.S. stocks higher, lifting America’s share to its highest level in decades. By comparison, the U.S. represented only about 40% of global equities following the global financial crisis.
Meanwhile, Asia ex-Japan ranks a distant second, representing 12% of global investable assets. Yet within the region, performance has diverged sharply. India’s main stock exchange has generated 16% annualized returns over the past five years, while China’s Shanghai Stock Exchange has returned just 2.8% over the same period.
Turning to fixed income, global bond markets stand at $96.6 trillion. Here again, the U.S. leads with a 43% share, while Europe follows with 29%.
Beyond stocks and bonds, gold stands at $15.7 trillion in value, accounting for 6% of the global portfolio. Cryptocurrencies, meanwhile, remain a small slice of the total, making up 1% of global assets with a market capitalization of $2.6 trillion.
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To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the world’s biggest stock exchanges.
Ranked: The World’s 30 Largest Cities by Population
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Use This Visualization
The World’s Largest Cities by Population, 2025
See visuals like this from many other data creators on our Voronoi app. Download it for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
Key Takeaways
Asian megacities dominate the rankings, with Jakarta, Dhaka, and Tokyo leading the world in population.
Rapid urban growth is increasingly concentrated in Africa and South Asia, while some mature cities are slowing or shrinking.
Population growth, migration, and economic opportunity continue to pull millions into major metropolitan areas. At the same time, aging populations and limited space are beginning to slow growth in several long-established megacities.
This visualization ranks the largest urban centers on Earth, showing where people are clustering today, and where future growth is likely to occur.
The data for this visualization comes from the UN World Urbanization Prospects 2025 report.
Defining Cities: There are multiple ways to define city boundaries, for example using administrative boundaries or urban agglomerations. This study by the UN uses satellite mapping of urban footprints to define cities as continuous areas with at least 50,000 people and a population density of 1,500 or more people per square kilometer.
Data & Discussion
Asia remains the epicenter of global urban population. Indonesia’s capital, Jakarta ranks as the world’s largest city in 2025 with nearly 42 million people, followed closely by Dhaka, Bangladesh, and Tokyo.
China and India alone account for a significant share of the top 30 cities, including Shanghai, Guangzhou, New Delhi, and Mumbai. These megacities benefit from large domestic populations, economic concentration, and long-standing roles as regional hubs.
RankCityCountryPopulation (2025)
1Jakarta Indonesia41.9M
2Dhaka Bangladesh36.6M
3Tokyo Japan33.4M
4New Delhi India30.2M
5Shanghai China29.6M
6Guangzhou China27.6M
7Cairo Egypt25.6M
8Manila Philippines24.7M
9Kolkata India22.6M
10Seoul South Korea22.5M
11Karachi Pakistan21.4M
12Mumbai India20.2M
13São Paulo Brazil18.9M
14Bangkok Thailand18.2M
15Mexico City Mexico17.7M
16Beijing China17.0M
17Lahore Pakistan15.2M
18Istanbul Türkiye15.0M
19Moscow Russia14.5M
20Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam14.1M
21Buenos Aires Argentina14.0M
22New York City U.S.13.9M
23Shenzhen China13.9M
24Bengaluru India13.2M
25Osaka Japan13.0M
26Lagos Nigeria12.8M
27Los Angeles U.S.12.7M
28Luanda Angola11.4M
29Chennai India11.2M
30Kinshasa DRC10.9M
Rapid Growth in Africa and South Asia
While Asia dominates in size, the fastest growth is increasingly happening elsewhere.
Luanda, Angola’s capital, is the fastest-growing city with an annual rate of about 11% since 2000, driven by high birth rates and rural-to-urban migration. Other African cities like Lagos and Kinshasa are also climbing the rankings, reflecting the continent’s young population and accelerating urbanization.
Slowing and Shrinking Megacities
Not all large cities are growing fast. Several mature urban centers, including Osaka and Mexico City, are seeing slower growth or outright population decline.
Aging populations, lower fertility rates, and limited housing supply are key factors. In high-income countries, urban growth is increasingly shaped by productivity gains rather than population expansion, marking a shift from past decades.
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