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eToro Buys Self-Custody Wallet Zengo as Brokers Race to Own Crypto Stack
eToro is
buying Zengo, an Israeli self-custodial crypto wallet provider, in a move that
takes the Nasdaq-listed broker further into on-chain infrastructure and puts it
in step with rivals such as Robinhood and Crypto.com that have spent the past
two years buying their way into the digital asset stack.Singapore Summit: Meet the largest
APAC brokers you know (and those you still don't!)eToro Agrees to Buy Crypto
Wallet Maker ZengoFinancial
terms of the agreement were not disclosed. The transaction is subject to
customary closing conditions, the company said in a statement today (Wednesday).
Zengo, founded in 2018 and backed by Insight Partners and Tether, says it has
more than 2 million users across 180 countries, and is built on multi-party
computation, or MPC, cryptography that does away with the seed phrase that has
historically been the weakest link in self-custodial wallets.eToro framed the deal as a way to support emerging
digital asset use cases, including tokenized assets and decentralized trading
models such as prediction markets and perpetuals. The company
said the wallet would continue to operate as a separate product from its
regulated exchange services, with Zengo users interacting directly with
third-party protocols when accessing decentralized applications, swaps, and
staking.Ouriel
Ohayon, Zengo's co-founder and CEO, said in the statement that joining eToro
would allow the company to "accelerate that mission at a global
scale" and connect self-custody "to a broader investing ecosystem
that bridges traditional and on-chain finance."[#highlighted-links#] A Second Acquisition Since
the Nasdaq DebutThe Zengo
deal is eToro's second announced acquisition since its Nasdaq IPO last May, which valued the company at $4.2
billion and raised $620 million. Co-founder Ronen Assia told Bloomberg in
September that eToro was sitting on roughly $988 million in cash without debt
and had a "robust M&A pipeline," signaling more deals to come.
The company subsequently agreed to buy Australian investing app Spaceship
for up to $55 million,
targeting the long-term savings segment.CEO Yoni
Assia used Wednesday’s announcement to flag what he called diversified trading
momentum in early 2026. He said commodity trading accounted for 60% of trading
commissions by asset class in the first quarter, with commodities volume
running nearly four times higher year over year, a shift the company linked to
macroeconomic conditions and its expansion of 24/7 trading on instruments
including gold and oil. Assia said
in the statement that "we believe the future of finance will be
increasingly digital, decentralized and user-controlled, with self-custody
playing an important role in that evolution," adding that "crypto
downtimes are the time to build."Brokers Are Buying Their
Way Into Crypto InfrastructureThe
acquisition lands at a moment when retail trading platforms are increasingly
looking to control the underlying crypto plumbing rather than simply offer
exposure. Robinhood closed its $200 million
purchase of crypto exchange Bitstamp in June 2025, giving the US trading app more
than 50 active licenses, an institutional crypto business, and an order book it
has since used to underpin tokenized stock trading in the European Union. That
deal pushed Robinhood for the first time into institutional crypto, a segment
historically dominated by specialists such as Coinbase Custody and BitGo.Crypto-native
firms have been moving in the opposite direction. Crypto.com partnered with
self-custody provider Exodus to act as the wallet maker's digital asset custodian, while Ripple
completed its $1.25 billion acquisition of prime broker Hidden Road in 2025 and
rebranded the unit as Ripple Prime, layering custody, payments, and its RLUSD
stablecoin onto an existing multi-asset brokerage business. Ripple has also
filed trademarks suggesting it may launch its own wallet product.Neither
side disclosed retention terms, integration timelines, or whether Zengo would
remain a standalone brand under eToro ownership. The companies did not indicate
when they expect the deal to close.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
eToro Launches Developer App Store and Builders Portal for Retail Platform
eToro is
opening up its platform to outside developers, rolling out an eToro App Store
and a companion builders portal that let third parties and users create,
publish and install trading and analytics tools that plug directly into the
retail investing platform.Singapore Summit: Meet the largest
APAC brokers you know (and those you still don't!)The
Nasdaq-listed broker, ticker
ETOR, which counts around 40 million registered users across 75 countries,
said the App Store will bring together developers, quantitative strategists,
Pro Investors and retail clients around a shared library of applications that
tap into eToro's core trading functions. At launch, users will be able to
browse apps by category, install them with one click and use them inside the
eToro platform, the company said in a statement Tuesday.The
builders portal sits alongside the store and gives developers what eToro
describes as structured access to its APIs, agent skills, Model Context
Protocol server, command-line tooling and technical documentation. Users
without a coding background will also be able to publish their own tools
through what the firm calls AI-powered, no-code capabilities.A Longer-Running AI Play
for the Retail BrokerThe App
Store has been telegraphed for months. eToro first unveiled its public API and
an AI assistant called Tori in August 2025, pitching the combination as a way
to give retail traders features once reserved for quant hedge funds, as Finance
Magnates reported at the time. By late
October, the company extended its public APIs and patented CopyTrader tool to
US investors and previewed a wave of user-built applications created
through so-called "vibe coding," a natural-language interface
that lets people design trading tools without formal programming skills.In a March
interview with Finance Magnates at eToro's Limassol office, CEO
Yoni Assia said the company already had more than 800 of its Pro Investors
who had built upwards of 1,000 apps, some of which would eventually be housed
in the App Store.[#highlighted-links#] Last month,
eToro also began rolling out Agent
Portfolios, a feature that lets users connect their own AI agents to live
sub-accounts with defined budgets and risk limits, placing the company ahead of
incumbents like Interactive Brokers, Charles Schwab and Fidelity in packaging
agentic AI as a client-facing trading product.Commenting
on Tuesday's launch, Assia said investing had always evolved with technology
but that AI was accelerating the process. "The eToro App Store opens up
financial innovation to anyone with an idea," he said in the statement.
"Developers and quants finally have a direct line to millions of retail
investors, and those investors finally get the more flexible and user-designed
tools they've always wanted."Broker Marketplaces Are
Not New TerritoryeToro is
entering a space where several technology providers have been running developer
marketplaces for years. Spotware's
cTrader Store, launched in late 2022 and expanded since, already functions
as a global marketplace for trading robots, indicators, copy strategies and
Open API apps, with built-in licensing and dedicated sections for prop firm
evaluations. Finance
Magnates reported last week that Spotware's platform now serves
more than 11 million traders through over 300 broker and prop firm clients,
with the store drawing an estimated 10,000 visitors a day, according to the
company.MetaQuotes,
the dominant player in CFD broker technology, runs its own MQL5 code base and
in early April launched
metatrader.com, a consumer-facing portal that bundles charting, news and a
developer marketplace with an Algo Forge layer described as a GitHub-like
collaboration space for developers. Earlier
iterations of broker-run developer programs go back more than a decade, with IG
Group opening its IG Labs API portal back in 2014, though without an app
marketplace component.The
difference eToro is pitching is less about the infrastructure itself and more
about distribution. The company is also marrying the store to its existing
social layer, where users have historically followed and copied Pro Investors
rather than downloading tools.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
Robinhood Takes a Curated Approach to Prediction Markets, Avoiding High-Risk Contracts
Robinhood is deliberately limiting which prediction market contracts it offers. This strategic decision is shaped by insider trading and manipulation concerns that have put the sector under increasing regulatory pressure. The company's prediction markets business has become, in CEO Vlad Tenev's words, its "fastest-growing business ever." But Robinhood has been explicit that growth doesn't mean offering everything.Filtering the Product"We don't necessarily offer all prediction markets or all event contracts," Jordan Sinclair, president of Robinhood UK, told the Financial Times. He emphasised that the company is "very focused on market abuse and insider trading." One concrete example: Robinhood has ruled out "mention markets" — contracts where users bet on whether a specific word or phrase will appear during a public event, such as an earnings call or a White House press briefing. Sinclair said the company passed on these contracts "for exactly some of those concerns" around insider information.Where Robinhood Draws the LineThe risk is real. In February, a former editor for the YouTube creator MrBeast was fined by Kalshi after using advance knowledge of video content to profit from trades on what MrBeast would say during a video. By drawing a line around these contracts, Robinhood is putting distance between itself and the less-regulated corners of the industry. The platform has opted to work exclusively with regulated venues — Kalshi and ForecastEx — and has avoided offshore providers.Regulation Shapes the StrategyThe regulatory environment shapes every part of this strategy. In the U.S., Robinhood is fighting Massachusetts in court after the state attempted to block its prediction market offering; Robinhood argues the products are federally regulated derivatives under CFTC jurisdiction, not securities subject to state oversight. In Europe, the environment is more restrictive: France and Germany have blocked major platforms like Polymarket as illegal gambling, though smaller jurisdictions — Gibraltar, Malta — are exploring dedicated regulatory frameworks. For now, Robinhood offers prediction markets only in the U.S., where it can rely on its CFTC-regulated exchange partnerships to justify a carefully selected contract menu. The approach lets it capture retail demand for the asset class while keeping regulatory and reputational exposure low. Whether a narrower product catalog will hold as the market matures — and as competitors take on more risk — is a question the company hasn't answered yet.
This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.
eToro Launches JapanEconomy Portfolio of 30 Stocks as 14% of Investors Expect Strongest Long-Term Returns
eToro said it has added all stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange to
its platform, expanding its global equities offering. The first batch of
listings, including all companies in the Nikkei 225, is now available for
trading. The company also introduced real-time market data for these assets.Singapore
Summit: Meet the largest APAC brokers you know (and those you still don't!).The
expansion follows a series of product and market additions over the past year.
eToro added access to 25
stock exchanges and increased its crypto asset range to more than 150 last
year. It also introduced stock margin trading, broadened its derivatives
offering, and expanded region-specific products, including UK ISAs and
Australian savings accounts, as part of efforts to diversify revenue streams.eToro
Adds Tokyo StocksThe move increases the number of exchanges available on eToro to 26, with
access to more than 11,000 common stocks. Yossi Brandes, the firm’s Vice
President of Execution Services, said the launch is “another major step in
making eToro a truly global investing platform.” He added that the company now
offers “access to more than 11,000 common stocks across 26 exchanges
worldwide.”Brandes said that with access to the Nikkei 225, users can trade “some of
Japan’s most iconic and liquid companies.” He noted that Japan is “the world’s
third-largest equity market” and said the expansion provides more opportunities
to diversify across regions and sectors.The company also launched a new investment portfolio, JapanEconomy, built
around 30 stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The portfolio is
structured based on market capitalisation, liquidity, and analyst consensus.
About half of the allocation is focused on industrial and technology companies,
while the remainder covers consumer, communications, and financial sectors.Japan
Return Expectations Rise in SurveySurvey data published by eToro indicates growing retail investor interest
in Japan. According to its Retail Investor Beat, the share of respondents who
expect Japan’s stock market to generate the strongest returns over the next
five years or more rose from 5% to 14% over a two-year period.Lale Akoner, Global Market Strategist at eToro, said Japan is
“re-emerging as a structural equity story.” She said reforms and policy changes
are “reset[ting] the market’s long-term return profile” and added that
companies are showing “better earnings visibility.” She also said governance
reforms are “enhanc[ing] shareholder returns.”Akoner said Japan is attracting global investors seeking diversification,
particularly away from the US. She described the market as combining “depth,
liquidity, and structural reform momentum” and said access to the Nikkei 225
allows retail investors to participate in ongoing changes in the market.
This article was written by Tareq Sikder at www.financemagnates.com.
Payments Firm Wise Heads to New York With £181 Billion Year Behind It
Wise said today
(Monday) its cross-border payment volumes climbed 26% in the final quarter of
fiscal 2026 to £49.4 billion, as the London-listed fintech prepares to shift
its primary listing to Nasdaq on May 11 and reshape how it reports its numbers
to investors.Singapore Summit: Meet the largest
APAC brokers you know (and those you still don't!)Active
customers reached 11.3 million in the three months to March, up 22%, while
underlying income rose 24% to £435.3 million. For the full year, Wise processed
£181.7 billion in cross-border transfers, a 25% increase, and served 18.9
million active customers.The
cross-border take rate slipped another basis point to 51, down from 53 a year
earlier, which the company described as a balanced approach to pricing and
reinvestment. Wise has run this playbook consistently, including when it reported 20% volume growth in Q2 of
fiscal 2025
alongside an eight-basis-point drop in take rate."We
are making good progress on building the network for the world's money,"
Chief Executive Kristo Käärmann said in the trading update. In January, Wise
became one of the first payment institutions granted membership to Payments
Canada, and last month it launched a UK current account with a physical branch
concept on Oxford Street.Dual
Listing Set for May 11 on NasdaqWise
confirmed it remains on track to complete its listing transfer this quarter,
with an expected debut date of May 11 on Nasdaq. The London Stock Exchange will
retain a secondary listing. A registration statement has been filed with the US
Securities and Exchange Commission, though the company noted it has not yet
been declared effective. Shareholders
approved the move last July, after Käärmann first outlined the Wall Street plan in June 2025, arguing the switch
would give Wise better access to its largest market.As part of
the transition, Wise said its full-year fiscal 2026 results will be presented
in US dollars under US GAAP, abandoning the "underlying" profit
framework in favor of reported income before tax. The company translated its
medium-term guidance into the new framework, keeping a 15%-20%
constant-currency net revenue CAGR target and setting an income-before-tax
margin target of 15%-20%. It said reported margins would likely run at 20%-25%
in the near term until it can pay more interest to customers.Cross-Border Rivals Step
UpWise
operates in a market where rivals are moving on similar ground. Revolut, whose
valuation recently overtook Barclays, expanded its international transfers with
14 new payment corridors across nine
African countries,
plugging into Airtel Money, Orange Money and MTN. Nubank's global account runs on Wise
Platform, the
firm's infrastructure arm that also powers Morgan Stanley, Standard Chartered
and Google Pay, taking its partner tally above 85.Wise leans
on a fee-compression model funded by scale and interest income on safeguarded
balances. Customer holdings grew 37% to £29.4 billion, card and other revenue
rose 29%, and Wise Business volumes jumped 35%. Instant
transfers, defined as arriving in under 20 seconds, climbed to 75% of flows
from 65%, a capability the company has long pushed in its broker partnerships
with Interactive Brokers, Tiger Brokers
Singapore and Gotrade.Wise
estimated that a 25 basis point change in central bank rates would move net
interest income by around $40 million a year, based on customer balances of
$26.4 billion at the end of the first half of fiscal 2026.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
Inside the Prediction Markets: Who Controls the Trade
Prediction markets have become a jurisdictional fight.
Federal regulators and U.S. states are now openly contesting who has the authority to oversee these markets — and, by extension, who controls a fast-growing new segment of trading activity.Singapore Summit: Meet the largest APAC brokers you know (and those you still don't!)
A federal appeals court ruled this week that Kalshi’s sports contracts are federally regulated derivatives, not gambling. The CFTC, in parallel, sued three states to block their enforcement actions.
Polymarket began rolling out its largest infrastructure upgrade to date. Binance Wallet added direct access to prediction markets for retail users.
Product and distribution moved forward. The legal fight moved into the courts.
What Moved the Markets This Week
Courts and Regulators Take the Lead
The legal fight over prediction markets advanced on several fronts this week.
The Third Circuit ruled that Kalshi's sports contracts fall under derivatives law, not state gambling statutes limiting states' ability to block them. The ruling is preliminary, not a final determination on the merits, but it buys Kalshi time.
The CFTC and the Department of Justice separately filed suit against Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois, arguing that state enforcement actions are preempted by federal law.
More cases are in motion. The Ninth Circuit is set to hear consolidated arguments involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com on April 16. The dispute now centers on which authority regulates them.
Polymarket Rebuilds its Core
Polymarket is rolling out what it calls its largest infrastructure upgrade since launch.
The platform is replacing its core collateral asset with a proprietary token — Polymarket USD — backed 1:1 by USDC held in reserve. The move cuts reliance on bridged assets and the risks tied to third-party infrastructure.
Polymarket is also rebuilding its trading engine to reduce costs and improve execution speed. The upgrade adds support for multi-signature wallets, a requirement for institutional users.
The timing is deliberate. A fully controlled collateral layer and an upgraded trading system are preconditions for a regulated U.S. relaunch and broader institutional access.
Retail Gets in — And Gets Credited
Access to prediction markets is expanding beyond dedicated platforms.
Binance Wallet introduced a feature this week allowing users to take positions on real-world events directly from the app, lowering the barrier for retail participants. The rollout is part of a broader push to reach users who don't want specialized setup.
Kalshi's founders, meanwhile, continue to argue that retail users are not just participants — they are a key source of predictive accuracy. CEO Tarek Mansour said the platform's performance comes from a broad base of users "trading out of their garage," not from traditional finance professionals.
More users now have direct access, and platforms are actively positioning retail traders as central to price formation.
Quote of the Week
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour appeared on The Axios Show on April 7, addressing insider trading enforcement on prediction markets:
"It's our responsibility as an exchange and the responsibility of regulators to identify these bad actors, as well as to detect and deter their actions. You punish them when you find someone who did something bad. It's a good thing."
Mansour added that if there were a yes/no contract on Kalshi about whether the CFTC would open an insider trading investigation within the next year, he would expect it to trade at "yes."Number of the Week
$30 million. That's how much has been traded on Kalshi's market tracking whether tech layoffs in 2026 will exceed last year's total. The contract is growing fast and has already surpassed some of the platform's major entertainment markets — a sign of rising demand for contracts tied to economic data.
The Friction of the Week
The central tension this week is between federal regulatory expansion and state authority over consumer protection.
The CFTC is not just defending its jurisdiction in court — it is actively suing states, filing for injunctions, and using the Third Circuit ruling as a template. Its argument is consistent: prediction market contracts are federally regulated derivatives, and states cannot recharacterize them as gambling to justify enforcement.
States are not retreating. Connecticut AG William Tong called the contracts "plainly unlicensed illegal gambling." Over 34 states filed amicus briefs asserting their regulatory authority. A bipartisan coalition of more than 20 senators has urged the CFTC to stay out of the litigation entirely.The federal government on Thursday sued Connecticut, Arizona and Illinois, challenging their efforts to regulate prediction market operators, businesses that Connecticut Attorney General William Tong argues "are plainly unlicensed illegal gambling." https://t.co/r1UuCQmMzq— Spectrum News 13 (@MyNews13) April 3, 2026
The platforms sit in the middle. They argue they are regulated exchanges operating under federal law — while simultaneously running markets on war, political outcomes, and now tech layoffs. Mansour welcomed federal enforcement against bad actors this week. But the same federal authority Kalshi is relying on to defeat state gambling laws is also drafting rules on margin trading, insider trading, and public-interest prohibitions — rules that could constrain which contracts the platforms can list at all. The CFTC is Kalshi's shield and its regulator at the same time. How much authority it chooses to exercise on both fronts is the question neither side has answered.
Bottom Line
The regulatory question was not resolved this week.
The Third Circuit sided with Kalshi. The CFTC escalated by suing three states. More rulings are coming, and the outcome will likely be shaped across multiple jurisdictions rather than by any single decision.
The market is not waiting. Platforms are rebuilding infrastructure, expanding distribution, and listing contracts tied to economic data alongside politics and sports.
Prediction markets are now running on two tracks: legal definitions are being tested in court, while usage continues to grow.
This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.
Kalshi Says its Edge Comes from Retail Traders but the Picture is More Complex
Kalshi's co-founders argue that the platform's predictive accuracy comes not from Wall Street professionals, but from a broader base of retail users with no particular financial background.
In a recent interview, CEO Tarek Mansour described prediction markets as a way to "bring in a much larger set of people" into forecasting. An analysis of Kalshi's top 1,000 traders, he said, shows that few have Ivy League degrees, few come from wealthy backgrounds, and few have prior experience in traditional financial markets or sports betting.
"You need the people in Kansas trading out of their garage," Mansour said. "They're just people that know how to read the news and are very self-calibrated."
What Research Suggests
Some academic research supports parts of this claim. Studies from the National Bureau of Economic Research and Federal Reserve researchers have found that prediction markets on platforms like Kalshi can match or outperform traditional forecasts on certain macroeconomic indicators — inflation and Federal Reserve rate decisions chief among them. The main advantage is frequency: market-implied expectations update continuously, rather than on the schedule of surveys or official data releases.
A more diverse — but not necessarily dominant — crowd
Kalshi has seen rapid growth in its share of women traders (reaching 26% recently), higher than many expected for a trading platform, with different segments active across politics, entertainment, and economics. The broad range of event-driven contracts extends participation beyond the typical financial audience.
Not everyone, however, attributes the accuracy primarily to distributed retail knowledge.Some analysts argue that price formation in prediction markets is significantly influenced by a smaller group of sophisticated participants — including hedge funds and experienced traders — rather than the broad crowd. On this reading, prediction markets function less as pure aggregation of public opinion and more as a venue where informed capital sets prices. Kalshi's own founders haven't addressed this tension directly.
Automation Changes the Dynamic
A separate factor complicates the "garage trader" narrative. As volumes grow, activity is starting to shift toward automation. In mature markets like FX, algorithmic trading already accounts for the majority of flow, and prediction markets may be following the same path.
Early signs are visible on Polymarket, where a significant share of the most profitable accounts appear to be automated. If that pattern holds across platforms, price formation will increasingly reflect execution speed and sophisticated strategies as much as distributed knowledge.
An Edge That May Not Last
For institutional users, the core question is what happens to forecasting accuracy as participation changes. If more sophisticated capital and automated strategies enter, the retail informational advantage may narrow — the same dynamic that has played out in equities, FX, and crypto over the past two decades. Retail traders tend to be crowded out as a market matures.
For now, prediction markets offer a fast, probability-based read on expectations. Whether that read is generated primarily by the crowd, or priced by a smaller set of well-capitalized and automated participants, is harder to know than the founders suggest.
This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.
Kalshi Sells Prediction Market Data to Fox, Expanding Beyond Trading
Regulated prediction market Kalshi has signed a multi-year partnership with Fox Corporation, integrating its real-time probability data across Fox News Channel, Fox Business Network, and Fox's streaming platforms.Singapore Summit: Meet the largest APAC brokers you know (and those you still don't!The deal adds Fox to a list of major media integrations that now includes CNN, CNBC, and — on the Polymarket side — Dow Jones.
Under the agreement, Kalshi's odds on political, economic, and cultural events will appear across Fox's linear and digital content through tickers, charts, and real-time visualizations. Terms were not disclosed.Fox News x KalshiThe largest news network in America integrates Kalshi.Prediction markets add accountability by rewarding accuracy.That’s why the three leading networks have chosen Kalshi.No spin. No partisan lens. Just incentives to be right. pic.twitter.com/bcNCQUnWRA— Kalshi (@Kalshi) April 7, 2026
Why Media Companies are Buying Prediction Market Data
For broadcasters, the appeal is structural: probability data is forward-looking, updates continuously, and gives producers something to display during live coverage that changes faster than polling. For Kalshi, it opens a revenue line that doesn't depend on trading volume.
Kalshi says roughly 70% of its platform visitors come to view forecasts rather than trade.Licensing that data to a network with nearly 200 million monthly viewers is a way to monetize the larger, non-trading majority of its audience.
"More people are watching Kalshi's forecasts than trading them, which says a lot," said co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour. "As misinformation grows more common, Kalshi offers accurate, unbiased data to help people better understand what's going on in the world."
"Prediction markets have quickly become an essential data point and a compelling new experience across our live content portfolio," said Paul Cheesbrough, CEO of Tubi Media Group, which oversees Fox's streaming platforms.
The CFTC Angle
Kalshi's status as a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market matters here. It lets media organizations present the data as output from a regulated financial market rather than from an offshore betting platform — a distinction that affects both editorial framing and advertiser comfort.
That said, the integrations carry real editorial risk. Critics have flagged the potential for anchors to misread probability data on-air, and the line between a sponsored data integration and neutral editorial content may not be obvious to viewers without explicit labelling. How Fox handles that disclosure will be worth watching.
This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.
Retail Investors Shift to Energy, Rare Earths, and AI Amid Tensions, eToro Finds
Retail investors
increased their exposure to energy, mining, and software stocks in the first
quarter of 2026, according to new data from eToro. The platform analysed
changes in the number of holders across listed companies, as well as the most
widely held stocks during the period.Singapore
Summit: Meet the largest APAC brokers you know (and those you still don't!).The shift was driven by
demand for assets linked to geopolitics, energy security, and artificial
intelligence. Chevron led the “top risers” with a 60% increase in holders,
benefiting from US policy developments in Venezuela and rising oil prices
following conflict involving Iran. USA Rare Earth followed with a 59% increase,
reflecting supply constraints and growing demand for domestic rare earth
production.Retail Investors
Rotate into Commodities, AIEnterprise
software and infrastructure firms also featured. ServiceNow recorded a 57% rise
in holders, while Western Digital saw a 40% increase, indicating continued
interest in companies linked to AI deployment.Other
commodity and defence-linked names also gained. Freeport-McMoRan rose 43%,
supported by demand for gold and copper, while AeroVironment increased 38%,
reflecting interest in defence technologies.Lale
Akoner, Global Market Strategist at eToro, said “the defining feature of Q1 was
not just geopolitical risk, but how that risk is being priced through real
assets,” adding that there is “a repricing of strategic commodities such as
gold, energy, and critical minerals.” She said investors are “not reacting
tactically, but reallocating structurally,” with “a clear rotation towards
assets with pricing power and supply-side constraints.”Investors Stay
Selective Amid AI OptimismThe
“top fallers” list included BioMarin Pharmaceutical, which recorded a 25%
decline in holders, followed by Okta, which fell 22%. Consumer-facing firms
such as Under Armour, down 19%, and Chipotle Mexican Grill, down 18%, also
declined, as higher costs and weaker demand visibility weighed on sentiment.
Akoner said investors are showing “less tolerance for earnings volatility and
weakening guidance,” with some sectors facing “higher input and freight costs”
and “softer demand visibility.”The
ranking of the most widely held stocks remained largely stable. NVIDIA held the
top position, followed by Tesla and Amazon. Microsoft moved from fifth to
fourth place after an 11% increase in holders, while Apple slipped to fifth.
Alphabet saw limited change. The stability suggests retail investors continue
to hold core positions in large technology companies tied to AI development and
monetisation.Akoner
said concerns about a “SaaSpocalypse” have not reduced interest in software,
noting that “it’s made investors more selective,” with “capital concentrating
in companies that can either enable AI or sit at the application layer.”
This article was written by Tareq Sikder at www.financemagnates.com.
Polymarket Replaces Bridged USDC Aiming for a U.S. Relaunch
Polymarket is executing what it describes as its largest infrastructure upgrade since launch — rebuilding its trading engine and replacing its core collateral asset with a new native collateral token. The platform is moving away from bridged USDC (USDC.e) on Polygon and will instead settle positions in Polymarket USD, a proprietary token backed 1:1 by USDC held in reserve.More details coming soon.Follow @PolymarketDevs for the technical breakdown:https://t.co/TeVWp8jXLp— Polymarket (@Polymarket) April 6, 2026From Bridged Asset to Native Control Polymarket has used USDC.e since launch/ It is a version of the stablecoin bridged from Ethereum to Polygon. That arrangement introduced bridge risk: the possibility of exploits or failures in the third-party software connecting the two chains. The shift to a native collateral token removes that dependency. It also forms part of a broader engine overhaul the company calls CTF Exchange V2, which includes a rebuilt trading engine and a new hybrid central limit order book aimed at lower gas fees and faster execution. The upgrade also adds support for multi-sig wallets such as Safe — a requirement for institutional clients and trading firms that need more granular security and governance controls.Preparing for the U.S. Market The timing is not incidental. Polymarket has been rebuilding its compliance architecture since settling a prior CFTC case, and a controlled, fully owned collateral layer is one of the structural prerequisites for a regulated U.S. relaunch. Institutional capital and regulatory confidence both require a platform that doesn't depend on third-party bridge infrastructure. The transition to Polymarket USD will roll out over the next few weeks. Regular users will see a one-click conversion prompt; API traders and bot operators will need to update their systems manually to interact with the new smart contracts. The upgrade follows record trading volumes. Whether the new architecture is sufficient to satisfy U.S. regulators — or attract the institutional flows Polymarket is clearly positioning for — remains to be seen.
This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.
Gibraltar Licenses First Prediction Market Operator in Bid to Attract Sector Growth
Gibraltar has issued its first license to a prediction market operator, as higher UK gambling taxes begin to put pressure on the territory’s core remote gaming industry.Singapore Summit: Meet the largest APAC brokers you know (and those you still don't!)
The license was granted to Predict Street Ltd on March 26, according to a statement by Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry Nigel Feetham, who described prediction markets as a potential area of growth for the jurisdiction.
The company says it is the “official prediction market partner” of the 2026 FIFA World Cup and operates on infrastructure provided by a blockchain firm based in Abu Dhabi. Pressure on the Gambling Model
The move comes as Gibraltar’s remote gambling sector faces rising costs linked to changes in UK tax policy.
The industry, which serves primarily UK customers, accounts for roughly one-third of the territory’s tax revenue. Recent tax increases are expected to significantly raise the effective rate for Gibraltar-based operators, potentially affecting profitability.
Feetham linked the licensing decision to these changes, noting that he has taken a more direct role in promoting Gibraltar’s regulatory offering since the tax measures were introduced. Exploring a New Segment
Prediction markets represent a different regulatory category from traditional betting, but their classification remains contested across jurisdictions.
By issuing a license, Gibraltar is allowing operators in this segment to establish a regulated presence locally, rather than operating offshore.
Other jurisdictions are also examining the space. Malta has said it is working on a framework for licensing prediction market operators, while countries such as France and the Netherlands continue to treat such platforms as gambling and restrict access. Limited Signal for Now
The licensing of a single operator does not yet indicate how large this segment could become.
While prediction markets are attracting interest, it remains unclear whether they can offset potential losses in Gibraltar’s gambling sector.
For now, the move suggests that Gibraltar is testing a new area of activity as its existing business model comes under pressure.
This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.
eToro Enables Crypto Trading in New York, Extending Reach to 48 States
eToro has opened crypto trading to residents of New York,
allowing users to buy and sell digital assets alongside stocks, ETFs, and
options on its platform. The move expands the company’s crypto services to 48
U.S. states and follows approval from New York financial regulators.Regulatory Milestone AchievedThe company secured both the New York State BitLicense and
Money Transmitter License after years of engagement with state authorities.
These are among the most stringent licenses in the country and permit eToro to
operate fully within the state’s complex regulatory framework.“New York is the epicenter of financial markets and a hub of
innovation,” said Andrew McCormick, Head of eToro U.S. “Completing our U.S.
footprint here reflects our commitment to broadening responsible access to the
next generation of financial markets.”Expanding Access to Digital AssetsWith the latest approval, eToro can now offer crypto trading
to more than nine million New Yorkers. The platform provides a single interface
for multiple asset classes, supported by educational tools and a social
investing community.According to eToro’s internal survey, 36% of U.S. retail
investors already hold crypto, and another 17% plan to increase their exposure,
underscoring rising participation in digital markets.
This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.
Airwallex Wins Key Malaysian License for Full Services, Including Payments and FX Platform
Global fintech firm Airwallex has received approval from
Bank Negara Malaysia to operate as a fully licensed financial services provider
in the country after obtaining both e-money and Class A licenses.Singapore Summit: Meet the largest APAC brokers you know (and those you still don't!).The move enables the firm to offer its complete suite of
financial products to Malaysian businesses, ranging from local payments to
global money movement.Growing Footprint and Market InvestmentThe new licenses build on Airwallex’s earlier approvals,
including its Class B Money Services Business license and status as a
registered merchant acquirer. With expanded regulatory coverage, the company
can now issue e-money, manage multi-currency accounts, support foreign exchange
transactions, and facilitate international payouts on a single platform.Arnold Chan, Airwallex’s General Manager for Asia-Pacific,
said Malaysia is a key market where the company aims to help businesses expand
internationally. In 2025, Airwallex expanded its local team by 66% and
handled over RM2 billion in remittance transactions. It also opened a larger
office in Kuala Lumpur and plans to double its workforce.Airwallex has strengthened its global brand presence by
signing a multi-year sponsorship deal with Arsenal Football Club, shortly after
securing $300 million in Series F funding that valued the company at $6.2
billion. The partnership makes Airwallex Arsenal’s Official Finance
Software Partner and extends across both the men’s and women’s teams, offering
the company prominent branding and content opportunities during matches at
Emirates Stadium. Arsenal Partnership After $300M Funding BoostAs the presenting partner for Arsenal’s upcoming pre-season
tour in Asia, the Melbourne-based fintech aims to leverage the collaboration to
engage new audiences and showcase its payments technology on an international
stage.This latest move continues Airwallex’s broader expansion
strategy, which has increasingly blended sports marketing with its financial
technology growth. Following its earlier deal with McLaren Racing, the Arsenal
partnership underscores Airwallex’s ambition to position itself as a leading
global payments provider while aligning with iconic sports brands to boost
visibility. The fresh capital injection provides the financial backing
to scale its offerings and amplify brand recognition, signaling that
Airwallex’s post-funding momentum is firmly focused on deepening its global
footprint through high-profile partnerships.Elsewhere, Airwallex recently appointed former New Zealand Prime Minister and Finance Minister Sir Bill English as Chair of its New
Zealand board, reinforcing its growing presence in the country. Since launching
locally in 2023, the fintech has expanded rapidly, now serving over 1,000 New
Zealand businesses and processing around NZ$2.4 billion in annual payment flows,
a 240% increase from the previous year.
This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.
CFTC Says Prediction Markets Are Derivatives, Not Gambling - and Insider Trading Laws Apply
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has made its position clear: prediction market contracts are financial derivatives, not gambling, and insider trading laws apply accordingly.Singapore Summit: Meet the largest APAC brokers you know (and those you still don't!)In his first public remarks as Enforcement Director, David Miller addressed what he described as a persistent misconception that insider trading rules do not apply to prediction markets. "Unfortunately, there’s a myth in mainstream media and social media that insider trading doesn’t apply in the prediction markets," Miller said at a panel at New York University. "That is wrong."A key CFTC official said the agency will use its powers to root out insider trading in prediction markets https://t.co/UillsoQ2f2— Bloomberg (@business) April 1, 2026The remarks come after a series of trades ahead of major geopolitical events, including the U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and the recent conflict in Iran. "Misappropriated Information" Miller was careful to draw a distinction between legitimate informational advantages and illegal activity. He noted that market participants are allowed to use their own knowledge. For example, a farmer may use what he observes about his own harvest to trade. However, he made it clear that the CFTC will prosecute cases involving "misappropriated information." "We will only be prosecuting cases against those who tip or trade with misappropriated information," Miller stated. He defined the clear legal standard that the agency will apply, and added that the CFTC will use its discretion and not pursue "trivial" cases.Not Gambling, but DerivativesMiller also addressed the agency’s position in its ongoing disagreement with state regulators. Several states have argued that prediction markets constitute gambling and fall under their oversight. Miller framed the issue in direct terms: "Our position is that event contracts are not gaming. The event contracts at issue are swaps. Insider trading law applies."This distinction is central to the CFTC’s position. If event contracts are treated as derivatives, they fall under federal market rules, including insider trading restrictions.This statement provides a degree of federal cover for the industry and for brokers and institutional players looking to enter the space, as it reinforces the classification of these products as financial derivatives rather than gambling. A New Enforcement Philosophy Miller also pointed to a shift in the CFTC’s approach under the new administration, moving away from reliance on enforcement actions alone. He said the agency plans to offer stronger incentives for companies and individuals to cooperate with investigations, including the possibility of reduced penalties.For brokers and fintech firms, the implication is practical. If prediction markets are treated as derivatives, existing compliance expectations - including insider trading controls - apply in full.
This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.
FX Startup OpenFX Raises $94 Million for Stablecoin Payments Push: Report
Foreign exchange startup OpenFX has raised $94 million in
fresh funding to expand its stablecoin-powered cross-border payments platform,
Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The round values the
company at around $500 million.Singapore Summit: Meet the largest APAC brokers you know (and those you still don't!)Backing from Major Venture FirmsThe funding was led by Accel, Atomico, Lightspeed Faction,
M13, Northzone, and Pantera. OpenFX, founded in 2024 by Prabhakar Reddy, a
former founder of crypto brokerage FalconX, is building infrastructure that
uses stablecoins to speed up and reduce the cost of foreign-exchange
transactions.Reddy reportedly conceived the idea for OpenFX after
observing long queues at Western Union branches in Dubai. The company now connects
traditional banking networks with digital systems, allowing near-instant FX
conversion using stablecoins as the settlement layer.You may also like: A $150B Crypto Time Bomb? Google Says Quantum Computing Could Rewrite Bitcoin SecurityOpenFX said more than 98% of transactions on its platform
now settle within an hour, compared with two to five business days under
traditional methods. The startup reportedly processes over $45 billion in annualized
payment volume, up sharply from $4 billion a year ago, driven by demand from
neobanks, fintechs, and remittance providers.The fintech plans to use the new capital to expand
operations in Southeast Asia and Latin America, where stablecoin usage is
growing. It currently operates in the United States, United Kingdom, UAE, and
India.OpenFX has developed a real-time foreign-exchange
settlement network designed to replace traditional correspondent banking flows,
focusing on wholesale clients such as remittance firms, neobanks, brokerages
and global payroll providers rather than on direct-to-consumer transfers.OpenFX Sharpens Institutional FocusIn the crypto payments and stablecoin gateway niche,
OpenFX’s backend FX and liquidity layer overlaps with firms like BVNK and
Bridge, which help companies adopt stablecoins as a payment rail and integrate
crypto into existing payment stacks. These players similarly focus on
converting between fiat and digital assets while offering compliance and
treasury tooling for international businesses.Late last year, OpenFX moved to deepen its institutional
operations by appointing Alex Rowles as its new Head of Trading and Risk,
adding a seasoned markets specialist just as cross-border payments and
stablecoin flows draw more regulatory and operational scrutiny.Rowles joins OpenFX after a seven-year spell at LMAX, where he held senior roles at the trading venue and liquidity provider. He initially served as Head of Trading before moving into a Commercial Director position for the final two years of his tenure.
This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.
Senator Warren Leads Push to Tighten Insider Trading Enforcement in Prediction Markets
A group of over 40 U.S. lawmakers, led by Senator Elizabeth Warren, is demanding that federal regulators take immediate action to address the problem of insider trading on prediction markets.Singapore Summit: Meet the largest APAC brokers you know (and those you still don't!)
In a formal letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Office of Government Ethics (OGE), lawmakers urged the agencies to issue clear guidance. They want federal employees to be reminded that using non-public government information to trade on these markets is illegal.Rep. Moulton joined 40 House and Senate colleagues, led by @SenWarren and @RepAngieCraig, in calling on the CFTC and OGE to curb insider trading in prediction markets, underscoring the urgent need for clear guidance. pic.twitter.com/N7N19sEqAp— Rep. Seth Moulton Press Office (@RepMoulton) March 30, 2026
The letter is a direct response to a series of high-profile, suspiciously well-timed bets that have raised concerns about the use of classified or privileged information.
These bets include a $400,000 profit made by a user on the offshore platform Polymarket who correctly bet on the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro just hours before the event.
"Given the exponential growth in prediction market trading, [and] rising evidence suggesting possible governmental insider trading... we ask that the CFTC and OGE issue guidance reminding federal employees of their existing legal obligation," the lawmakers wrote.
A Call for Formal Investigations and Proactive Measures
The letter goes beyond a request for guidance. Lawmakers are calling for a formal staff-level briefing and are asking whether the CFTC is already investigating cases involving federal employees, as well as what steps regulators are taking to detect and prevent such activity.
This push from Capitol Hill places additional pressure on the broader prediction market ecosystem, including regulated platforms such as Kalshi and the brokers and infrastructure providers building access to these markets.
From Grey Area to Enforcement Focus
The lawmakers' letter explicitly states that under existing law (the STOCK Act), insider trading by federal employees on derivatives markets—which the CFTC says includes prediction markets—is already illegal. However, they argue that in this "nascent" industry, the rules need to be explicitly clarified and enforced.
The CFTC itself has been moving in this direction, recently issuing its first advisory on prediction markets and noting that the prohibition on insider trading includes the "misappropriation of confidential information."
For the B2B brokerage and fintech audience, this legislative push is a meaningful development. It signals that prediction markets are moving toward a more structured compliance environment, where the detection and prevention of insider trading is becoming a central requirement.
This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.
Bitcoin Joins Card Payments as Square Enables Auto-Converted Transactions
Jack Dorsey’s long-standing vision of embedding Bitcoin into
daily commerce just took a major step forward. His company, Square, has
automatically enabled Bitcoin payments for millions of U.S. merchants, offering
instant BTC-to-dollar conversion at checkout without any processing fees until
2026.Singapore Summit: Meet the largest APAC brokers you know (and those you still don't!)No Setup, No Volatility, No FeesThe rollout allows Square sellers to accept Bitcoin as
payment without extra configuration or crypto knowledge. Every transaction
automatically converts to U.S. dollars the moment it’s processed, shielding
merchants from price volatility and the need to manage custody or accounting
changes.Automatically enabled bitcoin payments are rolling out to eligible U.S. Square sellers.Start accepting bitcoin that instantly converts to cash at checkout, with no additional setup.→ 0% processing fees through 2026→ Near-instant settlement→ No need to hold bitcoinLearn… pic.twitter.com/rnrPI0KbHE— Square (@Square) March 30, 2026According to the firm, instant settlements and zero fees until 2026 make the
feature particularly appealing to smaller businesses that prioritize simplicity
and cost efficiency.In an announcement on X, Square stated: “Automatically
enabled Bitcoin payments are rolling out to eligible U.S. Square sellers. Start
accepting Bitcoin that instantly converts to cash at checkout, with no
additional setup.”You may also like: Mastercard Adds Blockchain Muscle With $1.8B BVNK AcquisitionThe feature is part of the company’s broader “Square
Bitcoin” initiative but marks a shift in approach, Bitcoin acceptance is now
integrated directly into existing payment infrastructure rather than offered as
an optional add-on. This model positions crypto payments alongside
traditional card and digital transactions, potentially lowering barriers to
mainstream adoption.Competition in Digital PaymentsSquare’s announcement arrives as PayPal expands its own digital payments ecosystem through PYUSD, a U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin
launched across 70 markets. While PayPal bets on stablecoins for predictable
value, Square is doubling down on Bitcoin’s infrastructure potential, reflecting
Jack Dorsey’s conviction that Bitcoin, not stablecoins, represents the
internet’s native money.Bitcoin is becoming easier for people to spend because
several big payment players now let customers pay in crypto while merchants
still receive regular money in their accounts, with all the conversion handled
in the background. Still, Dorsey acknowledged that Square would support
stablecoins as user demand grows, signaling a pragmatic blend of ideology and
practicality in the company’s crypto strategy. Square’s automatic Bitcoin payments rollout could quietly
normalize crypto usage at checkout.
This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.
Inside the Prediction Markets: Congress Rewrites the Playbook
Prediction markets kept moving this week.
Trading continues, positions are opened and closed, and the machinery keeps running. On the surface, it still looks like business as usual, but it doesn't.Singapore Summit: Meet the largest APAC brokers you know (and those you still don't!)
More attention is shifting to how these markets handle information. Questions around insider trading, new legislation, and changes in platform rules are starting to converge around the same point: who gets to act on information, and when.
Here’s what mattered this week. What Moved the Prediction Markets This Week Behind the $967K Trade
An investigation published by CNN this week pointed to a pattern that has been discussed for months, but rarely documented this clearly.
Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified a cluster of linked accounts it believes are controlled by a single trader, who made nearly $967,000 on Polymarket by repeatedly betting on U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran ahead of time. The trader’s win rate on larger bets approached 90% — far above what would normally be expected in a market driven by uncertainty.
The accounts remain anonymous, and some still held open positions as of Monday. The analysis does not prove insider trading, but the pattern is hard to ignore.
More importantly, it connects directly to the broader debate now playing out in Congress and among regulators: whether prediction markets reward access to information that is not yet public.Three Bills in Five Days
Between March 23 and March 26, several legislative proposals targeting prediction markets were introduced in Congress.
On March 23, Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, which would ban CFTC-registered platforms from offering sports and casino-style contracts. The bill has also been backed by the Indian Gaming Association.“Public service should not be a pathway to private gain,” said Senator Curtis. “Our bipartisan legislation ensures that insider trading rules apply to prediction markets and removes any ambiguity in how those rules are enforced—underscoring a basic expectation that those entrusted with sensitive information cannot use it for personal profit.”
On March 25, a bipartisan House bill proposed banning members of Congress, the president, and executive branch officials from trading on political event contracts.On March 26, a group led by Senators Jeff Merkley and Elizabeth Warren introduced the STOP Corrupt Bets Act. Representative Jamie Raskin joined the effort. The bill covers elections, government actions, military conflicts, and sports.If you’re writing the laws, you shouldn’t be playing the market. This is basic stuff. I have a bill that finally bans members of Congress from trading stocks. No loopholes. No exceptions.— Senator Mark Kelly (@SenMarkKelly) March 23, 2026
At the same time, more than 20 state-level lawsuits are running alongside the federal activity.
Kalshi responded to the Schiff–Curtis bill by calling it an attempt to protect traditional gambling interests from competition. A VC Fund, Two Rivals, One Cap Table
A new venture fund, 5(c) Capital, has raised $35 million to invest in prediction markets infrastructure.
What stands out is who is backing it. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan — competitors — are both involved. So are investors tied to firms like Andreessen Horowitz and Ribbit Capital, two names closely associated with major fintech and crypto bets.
The fund is focused on building the underlying plumbing of the market — market-making, data, and index products — rather than consumer platforms.
The signal is simple: even as platforms compete, capital is being deployed around the infrastructure that supports them. Quote of the Week
Tarek Mansour, Kalshi CEO and co-founder, reacted on X to the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act introduced by Senators Schiff and Curtis on March 23.Casino lobby hard at work.There is a reason tens of millions of people use regulated prediction markets: it’s a better product.Banning just pushes this offshore, where no regulation exists.This bill isn’t about protecting consumers; it’s about protecting monopolies. https://t.co/otzm0U4Te8— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) March 23, 2026Number of the Week
$500,000
That’s the threshold above which prediction market traders start making money.
According to a recent analysis, only the highest-volume participants — those with more than $500,000 in activity — recorded positive returns. Smaller accounts consistently lost money.The Friction of the Week
On Monday March 23, Kalshi announced it would preemptively block athletes, coaches, political candidates, and sports officials from trading contracts related to their own events.Two new guardrails: 1. Screen and block politicians from trading on their own campaigns.2. Screen and block athletes from trading on their own leagues. We already banned, monitored, and enforced against it. Now our systems also look to block it pre-trade. https://t.co/HThqrvmZ2B— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) March 23, 2026Polymarket published updated market integrity rules the same day, clarifying that users cannot trade on stolen confidential information, illegal tips, or contracts where they can influence the outcome. Neal Kumar, Polymarket's chief legal officer, described the changes as making "expectations abundantly clear."
Two days later, Senators Schiff and Curtis appeared on CNBC's Squawk Box and rejected these measures as insufficient. Schiff said the companies "cannot be relied upon to self-regulate" and pointed to the suspected insider trading around Iran war bets.A bipartisan group of Senators creating the "Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act" aiming at limiting the platforms' reach. Authors @SenAdamSchiff & @SenJohnCurtis outline the details:https://t.co/lGYZQ6opbd— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) March 25, 2026The disagreement is structural. Kalshi and Polymarket argue that existing CFTC oversight and their own rules already prohibit the conduct legislators are targeting. Legislators argue that enforcement is toothless, blockchain anonymity prevents tracing, and the platforms have a business incentive to look the other way. Arizona filed 20 criminal counts against Kalshi on March 16. A Nevada court issued a 14-day temporary restraining order on Kalshi's sports contracts on March 20. The platforms are calling these state actions pre-empted by federal law. Bottom Line
This week brought together several threads that have been building for some time.
A trader with an unusually high win rate drew attention to how information moves through these markets. Congress responded with multiple bills. Platforms updated their rules. Courts in two states moved against Kalshi.
What becomes clear is that each part of the system is moving at its own pace.
Platforms react in hours, rewriting rules as events unfold. Legislators move in weeks, introducing overlapping proposals. Regulators move in months, opening comment periods and building formal frameworks. Courts move case by case.
The market, meanwhile, doesn’t wait.
Prediction markets were built to price uncertainty.
Now they are being shaped by the rules that try to contain them.
This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.
ARK and Kalshi Test Prediction Markets as a Research Tool
ARK Invest and prediction market platform Kalshi have announced a collaboration to test how prediction markets can be used within institutional research workflows.Singapore Summit: Meet the largest APAC brokers you know (and those you still don't!)
Under the partnership, ARK will work with Kalshi to create event contracts tied to its investment themes, including macroeconomic indicators, company performance metrics and scientific or technological milestones.
“Bringing prediction markets into institutional workflows is a natural extension of how we think about research,” said Cathie Wood, Founder, CEO and CIO of ARK Invest. “We believe these signals can provide additional context around key drivers across disruptive sectors.”At @ARKInvest, we’re always looking for new tools that can sharpen our research and improve how we make investment decisions. Prediction markets are not just a new derivatives market — they represent a powerful new way to quantify risk and surface forward-looking insights.We’ve… https://t.co/BLFzORsaVK— Cathie Wood (@CathieDWood) March 26, 2026From Data Source to Research Input
The collaboration moves prediction markets from being an external data point to something that can be incorporated directly into the research process.
Instead of only observing existing markets, ARK plans to help define the questions those markets track. For example, this could include contracts tied to specific business outcomes, such as production targets or regulatory approvals, allowing the firm to monitor market expectations in real time.
Prediction markets have shown relatively strong forecasting accuracy in certain domains. Analysis of Polymarket data suggests accuracy of around 73% across resolved markets, rising to over 90% in the final hours before events. This compares favorably with traditional polling models in some political forecasts.However, these signals are not purely neutral. Market outcomes can be influenced by large traders and uneven participation, which may affect how prices are formed.
“We believe prediction markets offer a way to observe how participants price specific risks,” said Nick Grous, Director of Research at ARK Invest. A Targeted Use Case
For Kalshi, the partnership expands its work with institutional participants by focusing on how its markets are used rather than just how they are traded.
“This was part of the original vision for Kalshi — to provide pricing on real-world events that institutions can use in decision-making,” said CEO Tarek Mansour.As institutional adoption of prediction markets grows, Kalshi is seeing increased demand for a formal market request pipeline to help investors leverage the wisdom of the crowd.@ARKInvest is now working with Kalshi through this pipeline to list markets used in investment…— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) March 26, 2026
The collaboration builds on a series of recent partnerships focused on institutional access. Kalshi has worked with firms such as Tradeweb on data distribution and FIS on clearing infrastructure, while other partnerships have focused on custody and market integrity.
For brokers, asset managers and data providers, the development points to a potential use case beyond trading. Prediction markets may be used as a supplementary signal within research and risk frameworks, rather than as a standalone trading product.Still an Early Experiment
The approach remains experimental.
The usefulness of prediction market data depends on factors such as market depth, participant mix and how contracts are structured. Activity is often concentrated in a limited number of contracts, with many markets remaining thinly traded.
For now, the collaboration suggests one way these tools might be used within institutional workflows, rather than establishing a standard model.
This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.
eToro Lets Investors Delegate Trades to AI Agents as Automation Usage Nearly Doubles
eToro has begun rolling out a feature that allows users to
connect their own AI agents to live trading accounts. The company said the new
function lets developers automate trades directly through eToro with allocated
capital and defined risk limits.Singapore Summit: Meet the largest APAC brokers you know (and those you still don't!)Dubbed Agent Portfolios, the new offering acts as a separate
sub-account within a user’s main profile. According o the firm, investors can
name the portfolio, set a budget starting from $200, and link an AI agent using
a scoped API key. The agent can then open and close trades, check balances, and
manage positions within that portfolio’s boundaries.Adoption of Agentic AI ToolsAgentic AI is a type of AI that can analyze
information and take actions for a user, such as moving money or placing
trades, within set limits. In finance, it usually means autonomous software
agents that follow a goal (for example, managing a portfolio) and interact with
external systems like broker APIs without needing constant human prompts.The timing also reflects rising demand from retail clients
for AI-assisted investing, with eToro recently reporting a 46% jump in AI tool usage in
2025 and strong interest in AI-related themes across its user base.The rollout marks another step in
its push to embed AI deeper into its trading ecosystem and shift more activity
toward rules-based, automated strategies. It comes after the platform
introduced AI tools such as the “Tori” AI companion and Alpha Portfolios, as
well as public APIs aimed at letting users build and automate strategies on top
of eToro’s infrastructure.Read more: AI Agents Could Be the Next Payments Revolution: Mastercard and Santander Just Proved ItThe latest platform offers two setup paths via the desktop
application or through a direct conversational prompt for integrated AI tools.
No coding is required to activate a portfolio.Industry Keep Agentic AI Mostly in PilotsFor eToro, Agent Portfolios extend the long-running social
and copy-trading model into user-built automation, effectively turning the
platform into a sandbox where developers can deploy and test AI agents with
real capital inside controlled sub-accounts. Examples include Interactive Brokers, which has discussed
agentic AI and autonomous strategy execution in its thought leadership and
marketing, though mainly around tools and research rather than retail-facing AI
sub-portfolios. Commentary on Charles Schwab and Fidelity also describes how
they explore agentic AI concepts for workflow automation and advisory support,
but these efforts remain largely conceptual or internal, not packaged as ring‑fenced
AI trading portfolios for end clients.
This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.
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