USD/CAD experienced high volatility after the US postponed military strikes on Iran, leading to a "risk-on" sentiment shift.The resulting weakness in the US Dollar was offset by a massive ~7.5% drop in WTI crude oil, which prevented the commodity-linked CAD from making gains and left the pair flat near 1.3715.The bias is cautiously bullish, requiring a decisive break above the key technical level of 1.3730The pair's movement will be governed by the 5-day US/Iran discussion window, further WTI price swings, and the potential for new US tariffs on EU goods.Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) recovers from 9% plunge, technical bias remains firmly bearish below $4,500/ozUSD/CAD had a wild ride today much like markets as a whole. Early in the session, the pair reached a fresh high of 1.3755, testing the peak set in January.Following a major geopolitical headline, the pair plummeted to an intraday low of 1.3683, testing critical technical support. By the afternoon, the pair settled into a flat, rotational pattern near 1.3715, as the market balanced a weaker US Dollar against falling oil prices.The Trump seesaw continues The defining driver was President Trump’s announcement to postpone planned military strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days. This triggered a "risk-on" sentiment shift, reducing the "war premium" and safe-haven demand that had been propping up the US Dollar.Crude oil (WTI) fell nearly 12% immediately following the news, eventually stabilizing near $90 (a 7.5% intraday drop). Since the Canadian Dollar is a commodity-linked currency, the massive drop in oil prices offset the US Dollar's weakness, preventing the CAD from making significant gains and leaving the pair "flat."Remarks from Fed officials provided a backdrop of caution. Governor Stephen Miran urged policy-making based on long-term trends rather than "short-term headlines," while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that oil shocks remain "stagflationary," suggesting rate cuts might not happen until late 2026.Factors affecting USD/CAD moving forward Moving forward, the pair will likely be influenced by several high-impact variables:The five-day "window" established by the US for discussions with Iran will keep markets on edge. Any breakdown in talks or a resumption of strike threats would likely spike the USD and oil prices simultaneously.As Canada is a major crude exporter, the CAD remains highly sensitive to WTI price swings. If oil recovers on supply concerns, the CAD could strengthen; if de-escalation continues, oil may fall further, weakening the Loonie.Markets are closely watching for "proof of inflation" from the Fed. A hawkish stance from the Fed compared to a potentially more dovish Bank of Canada (BoC) would provide long-term upward pressure on USD/CAD.Reports of potential 15–20% minimum tariffs on EU goods by the Trump administration suggest a continuing protectionist stance that could bolster the USD through trade-war risk appetite.Technical Analysis - USD/CAD Back to the technicals though and USD/CAD continues to test the 1.3730 key level.The daily chart shows USD/CAD is struggling to gain acceptance and record a daily candle close above the 1.3730 key level.If the pair does gain acceptance above this key level, there is a confluence area just beyond that where the 100-day (black) and 200-day (orange) MAs are converging near the 1.3800 handle.The 200-day MA at 1.3803 represents a "line in the sand", a break above this would signal a return to a long-term bullish bias.Significant long-term support remains at 1.3501.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting at 55.66, suggesting there is still room for further upside before the pair becomes overbought with momentum favoring bulls.The bias is cautiously bullish but lacks conviction. A decisive break and hold above 1.3730 would likely trigger a run toward the 1.3800 handle. Conversely, if the pair drops below the moving average cluster at 1.3650, expect a move back toward the 1.3580 support zone.USD/CAD Daily Chart, March 23, 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 23 Recent trading sessions have been nothing short of wild roller coaster rides.Stock Markets reached new cycle lows on Friday and in the overnight Futures session, driven by fears of an escalation as the rhetoric seemed to intensify.But that wasn't without counting another Trump yo-yo, as he surprised Markets with the announcement of potential peace talks restarting, as the fourth week of the US-Iran conflict officially begins.On the announcement, a frantic wave of volatility unwinding shook Markets all over:Gold tumbled to $4,100, only to be saved by its 200-Day Moving Average (closing around $4,400). Stock Markets across the world exploded by 3% from their relative lows, Yields significantly eased, and, most importantly, Oil fell further.WTI broke the $90 psychological bar, and more strikingly, Brent fell back below $100 for the first time since March 13 – A significant easing in pricing compared to the slow grind higher that had been seen since.For now, this is only the beginning of some form of de-escalation, but it's not like peace is a done deal.With Iran denying any potential talks, optimism quickly faded. However, there are still signs that talks could be coming soon, with Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf travelling to Pakistan with US and Israeli approval.With about 4,500 US Marine troops currently traveling towards the Middle East, this could just be a distraction tactic, as mentioned here. Still, the reality is that we are now entering the fourth week, and both Israel and the US mentioned a 4 to 5-week operation.That would be a massive repricing for a deal, as Markets were getting increasingly pessimistic about the length of the conflict – The only truth is what Markets are saying:Keep a close eye on WTI, Brent, the US Dollar, and Stock Markets, which are losing some of their session strengths as the session concludes. Read More:Prudent optimism in Wall Street as US-Iran talks could confirm – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookCrazy swings all across Markets as US-Iran talks pick up: Gold grazes $4,000, WTI to $90 – Market CheckGold (XAU/USD) recovers from 9% plunge, technical bias remains firmly bearish below $4,500/ozStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 23, 2026 The heatmap did not change much since our afternoon Stock Market check, but there has been some (logical) profit-taking and deleveraging towards the close – Uncertainty is still high, but tomorrow should help to clarify whether the optimism is logical or not.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView The session got wild after the Trump Truth Social post – Look at all the wild swings around Markets.Oil remains the guide for Market flows and sentiment. Those waiting to fill up their gas tanks at lower prices might still have to wait a bit, but that's definitely an improvement!Tomorrow's continuation will be necessary to confirm the risk-on turn for global assets.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 23, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs FX was all over the place today, with risk-off currencies initially leading along with the stronger GBP (with a hike repricing for next meeting with the Bank of England – Watch out if Brent falls off a cliff!)But risk-currencies then took the lead, supported by the tumble in the Dollar after the Trump post. GBP, AUD and NZD are the leaders of today's sessionA look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The calendar for the next 24 hours is packed.APAC traders will have to lean on the AUD and JPY for a few economic clues including Australian PMIs and Japan Inflation. But NZD traders will also have to log in for a Governor Breman speech at 21:00 (ET).Not even mentioning a flurry of Central Bank speeches, PMIs will release throughout most Major economies, and it seems to me that around this point of the cycle, Central Bankers will look more closely at economic clues to know whether they should actually hike or not – Expect these releases to move Markets!Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Relative policy dynamics driving FX moves: USD/JPY weakness highlights that USD strength is not absolute, hawkish signals from the European Central Bank and Bank of England offset Fed expectations, pushing the US dollar lower.Hawkish tilt from BoJ supports yen strength: Despite holding rates, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s comments on wages and inflation signal a potential hike path, reinforcing upside pressure on the yen.Technical downside risk building: USD/JPY is at risk of further decline below 157.40–157.50 support (20-day MA), exposing 156.55, while failure to reclaim 159.37 resistance keeps the near-term bearish bias intact. In the world of foreign exchange, we measured performance on a relative basis in terms of price action structures and macro factors.A hawkish stance or guidance from the US Federal Reserve does not necessarily result in sustained US dollar strength, as the currency’s trajectory is ultimately shaped by relative monetary policy dynamics across other major developed market central banks.The ex-post 18 March’s FOMC US dollar strength pop due to Fed funds futures market now pricing in no interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 was evaporated yesterday, reinforced by hawkish guidance from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) despite keeping their respective policy rates unchanged at 2% and 3.75%.Ex-post FOMC US dollar strength evaporated Interest swap markets in the Eurozone and the UK have started to price in two 25 basis points (bps) hikes this year, each by the ECB and the BoE, due to their concerns on inflation risks arising from the slowdown driven by stagflation fear driven by the oil supply shock coming out from the Middle East (US-Iran War).The US Dollar Index shed -1.1% on Thursday, 19 March 2026, erased the prior day's gain of 0.7% (ex-post FOMC), and the USD/JPY fared slightly worse off with a daily loss of 1.3%.The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its policy interest rate unchanged 0.75%, and we have warned in our BoJ monetary preview report published earlier on Wednesday, 18 March, that BoJ Governor Ueda’s press conference that tends to tilt towards dovish vibes more often based on past conferences, is likely not to trigger a bout of strength in the USD/JPY this time round.Read more: BoJ meeting preview: Balancing act between growth and inflation as USD/JPY approaches 159.45/161.95 key intervention risk zoneBoJ Ueda’s hawkish press conference BoJ Governor Ueda highlighted in the post-monetary policy decision press conference that the current spring wage talks have been delivering high chances of another year of wage increases.He also noted that authorities need to keep monitoring the impact of currency movements on consumer prices, as FX moves now may have more impact on prices than before.These statements are considered hawkish that suggests BoJ is still on the path of one interest rate hike before 2026 ends.Let’s focus now on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the USD/JPY from a technical analysis perspective.USD/JPY – At risk of breaking below 20-day moving average Fig. 1: USD/JPY minor trend as of 20 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the 159.03/159.37 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 157.50/157.40 (also the 20-day moving average) exposes the next intermediate support at 156.55 (also the 50-day moving average) in the first step.On the flip side, a clearance above 159.37 invalidates the bearish bias for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at 160.23 and 160.74 (also the intervention risk zone where BoJ sold USD against JPY in the past).Key elements to support the bearish bias on USD/JPY The price actions of the USD/JPY have broken down below the minor ascending channel support from the 27 February 2026 low of 155.54.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has exited from the oversold region without any bullish divergence condition, which suggests that the current bounce from Thursday, 19 March 2026, low of 157.51 is a minor corrective rebound within a minor downtrend phase. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 19 After yesterday's FOMC session, the market experienced a significant shift.The previous trends benefiting the US Dollar and Crude Oil have now eased. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's latest address suggests that the ongoing conflict could end sooner than anticipated.This major change, combined with the global Central Banks' shift toward a more hawkish stance—particularly from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, which are now signaling potential interest rate hikes in coming meetings—contrasts sharply with the cuts and pauses that were previously expected before the recent surge in oil prices.One key consideration is that if the conflict does conclude earlier than expected, Oil prices could sharply decline (though not as low as they were previously). This would likely lead to a reduction in inflation expectations and a decrease in anticipated rate hikes, creating even more uncertainty for traders.Metals have been sharply declining due to the more hawkish policies from Central Banks, along with global stock indexes. However, following Netanyahu’s press conference, WTI and Brent crude prices fell by nearly 10%, easing some pressure on global assets. Brent Oil 15M Chart – Source: TradingView The US stock markets made a comeback, coming close to positive territory after a dismal pre-open session, but they failed to maintain their highs. This shift is still significant.Gold is now trading below $4,700, Platinum below $2,000, and Silver dropped by 4% in the session to $72. Expect wild fluctuations in the metals market in the upcoming sessions. An in-depth analysis of metals will be provided tomorrow morning. Gold is still back below $4,700, Platinum, below $2,000 and Silver down 4% on the session to $72 – Expect wild movements in upcoming sessions for metals. An in-depth Metals analysis will be coming up tomorrow morning. Read More:The US Dollar dives after the FOMC, long-term reversal incoming? – Dollar Index (DXY) outlookWall Street gaps down, weak dip-buying attempts – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookBank of England leaves interest rates unchanged as war and rising energy prices complicate inflation fightStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 19, 2026 The heatmap is looking much healthier than it was this morning, but doubts still remain – Defensive Stocks have in general struggled more and rebounds have been more chaotic.Tomorrow's session will be essential for Stock bulls!Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView Talk about a chaotic session today! Oil was once again the main culprit, notably after making a pump-and-dump after he announcement that the US will not ban Oil exports.It closes down 5% in the past 24 hours, around $95 (for WTI).Metals and Crypto also had to kick the can down the road despite the better afternoon mood, with only Stocks profiting from the better War news.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 19, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs The FX perf is almost an exact mirror of what happened yesterday, with Antipodeans easily recovering what they had lost previously, with the Canadian Dollar and US Dollar on the other side of the performance spectrum. The Yen however, is back on top shortly after USD/JPY reached new highs – Talk about a reversal!If the USD opens lower tomorrow, you can expect these flows to persist.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. After today's insane session, tomorrow should be more contained.Expect some movement around Antipodean currencies with the NZD trade data and PBoC Rate Decision coming up soon.Tomorrow will also see the release of PPI in Germany and Retail Sales for Canada.Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Yesterday's FOMC meeting marked the beginning of a rough session for Traders around the globe.Global Stocks Indexes took large hits, correcting down 3% in Japan, London and Europe and gapping down starkly in this morning's open. Dow Jones Index 4H Chart – Source: TradingView As you can see on the Index chart for the Dow Jones Industrial Index, heavy selling pressure from a massive hawkish repricing has applied large pressure on US Equities and others around the world. Yesterday's conference from Jerome Powell did not help to contain the initial scare of higher rates for longer – as a matter of fact, his wordings around the current 3.50%-3.75% were estimated to be located "at the plausible range of Neutral [rates]", implying that further movement in the Fed Policy would only be contingent on a weakening economy or Labor Market.And we haven't seen any sign of this for now – Quite the contrary: Jobless Claims came at 205K, the lowest since January (and they were at two year lows at that time) Jobless Claims since March 2023 – Source: Trading Economics This also combines with a flurry of Central Bank Decisions (including the ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank) which haven't communicated any type of dovishness.When assuming that Crude Oil prices are now 40% higher than they were the last trading day of February, and close to 90% higher since their January lows, it is difficult not to reprice some heavy form of inflation spike.Everybody feels it at the pump, it hasn't been fun. Read More:Bank of England leaves interest rates unchanged as war and rising energy prices complicate inflation fightMarkets Today: European Gas futures soar 25%, Brent hits $119/barrel. Central bank pressure heats up as ECB meeting loomsFOMC pauses rates yet again, Dollar explodes – Economic Projections and (Updated) Market ReactionsMarket ReactionsCrude Oil spikes higher but eases since, Brent-WTI spread widens even more Brent to WTI Spread – Source: TradingView European and Asian Markets are getting even more concerned by the latest escalation in Energy infrastructure attacks across the Middle East, as these regions remain heavily affected by supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.A detailed Crude Oil analysis will be coming at the top of the hour.US Treasuries volatility spikes, Curve flattens US Treasury Bonds – March 19, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Bond traders are now largely undoing the steepening that was priced in the Rate curve (implying that rates will be lower in the near term than the long-term).The issue with this is that such Curve conditions tighten credit and largely hurts banks.This is also the type of Curve movement that can precede either rate hikes or recessions – two conditions that aren't the most favorable for Stock Markets or any other Markets as a matter of fact.In general, a flatter yield curve means that current inflation is expected to be higher than long-term inflation – This comes with the heavy rises in WTI.The US Dollar marks a top after the FOMC DXY 4H Chart – March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView Markets may at least reconcile with the fact that the US Dollar is now correcting back to its pre-FOMC levels – This happens at the top of its July 2025 Range (from 96.00 to the current 100.00).An in-depth US Dollar analysis will be coming up this afternoon, but the general theme to keep in mind is the fact that an easing dollar may also ease general pressures around Markets since the beginning of the War.Watch the 4H 50-MA that has however just acted as support – Bouncing here would reinforce the pre-open panic.This pullback has helped the JPY to relief, and similarly for other currencies – The USD is now at the bottom of the FX board in today's session. The correction in WTI is also helping. Current Session in FX (10:39 A.M.) – Courtesy of Finviz Gold retests its February lows Gold 4H Chart – March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView The price action in Gold and other metals has been very ugly, as participants really price out the Global Rate cuts, giving relative strength to yielding assets.This phenomenon is magnified by the lack of consistent rallies since the beginning of the War and a general scare of a long-term inflationary process. Still, it's not the end of the World for metals until $4,400 breaks – Here could be a decent, small DCA entry point for those who did not participate in the trend.Below $4,400 however may see further correction back to $4,000 and below, $3,500 so make sure to watch for your size and add only on confirmation!Cryptos are tumbling Current Session in Cryptos (10:35 A.M.) – Courtesy of Finviz Bitcoin is now back below $70,000; Ethereum remains relatively strong at $2,100 but the overall Market is getting hurt by the latest hawkish repricing.Keep a close eye on headlines and flows throughout the day as today is promised to be quite volatile.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Bank of England kept rates unchanged at 3.75%, choosing a wait-and-see approach as uncertainty around inflation and growth increases.War in the Middle East and higher energy prices have worsened the inflation outlook, raising the risk that inflation could stay elevated for longer than previously expected.The UK economy remains weak, which leaves the Bank facing a difficult trade-off between containing inflation and avoiding further damage to growth. The Bank of England unanimously decided to keep interest rates on hold at 3.75%, judging that the best course of action for now is to wait and gather more evidence. The decision highlights just how difficult the current environment has become for the UK central bank. On the one hand, inflation risks are starting to build again. On the other, the economy remains fragile, and weak growth prospects do not justify further monetary tightening. United Kingdom interest rate, source: Trading Economics War in the Middle East reshapes the inflation outlookThe key factor behind the Bank’s decision is a fresh energy shock triggered by the war in the Middle East. Higher oil and gas prices are feeding into inflation both directly, through fuel costs and household energy bills, and indirectly, through rising operating costs for businesses. The Bank has made clear that it cannot influence global commodity prices, but it can try to prevent this shock from becoming embedded in domestic inflation.Inflation is becoming a bigger concern againEven before the conflict escalated, the UK inflation picture had been gradually improving. That trend has now clearly deteriorated. The Bank of England estimates that inflation could reach around 3.5% in March, remain close to 3% in the second quarter, and then climb back to as high as 3.5% in the third quarter if energy prices stay elevated. That marks a notable shift from earlier projections, which had pointed to inflation closer to 2.1%. In other words, the disinflation process has been disrupted by external factors that monetary policy can only partially offset. United Kingdom core inflation rate, source: Trading Economics A weak economy makes the policy choice harderThe problem is that higher inflation is not being accompanied by stronger economic momentum. Quite the opposite: UK activity remains subdued, GDP growth is sluggish, and labour demand has softened. Higher energy costs could make matters worse by squeezing household real incomes and weighing further on consumption. In effect, the Bank of England is facing a familiar but difficult trade-off: how to contain inflation without worsening the slowdown in growth.The biggest risk: inflation becoming entrenchedThe Monetary Policy Committee sees risks on both sides, but for now it appears more concerned about upside inflation risks. Of particular concern are so-called second-round effects — the possibility that higher energy prices begin to feed into wage demands and broader domestic price pressures. That would be especially problematic, as it could keep inflation elevated for longer than markets currently expect. The longer energy prices remain high, the greater that risk becomes.What happens next with interest ratesThe Bank of England is not offering any strong guidance on its next move. Its message suggests that if the energy shock proves temporary and the economy stays weak, monetary policy could gradually become less restrictive over time. But if higher energy prices turn out to be more persistent and start to drive inflation expectations higher, the Bank could be forced to take a more hawkish stance. That means a rate hike is not the base case, but it has not been ruled out entirely. Unanimity today does not mean certainty tomorrowThe unanimous vote to leave rates unchanged should not be mistaken for full agreement on the future path of policy. Comments from Committee members suggest that even before the outbreak of the conflict, some had been close to backing a rate cut. For now, however, caution is dominating the discussion. Policymakers first need to assess the scale and persistence of the energy shock before deciding whether the next step should be a cut, a prolonged hold, or even renewed tightening.The Bank of England opts for a wait-and-see approachThe latest decision shows that the Bank of England has moved firmly into wait-and-see mode. Faced with war, higher energy prices and rising uncertainty, it is unwilling to move too quickly in either direction. For now, the priority is to determine whether this shock will prove temporary or evolve into a more persistent inflation problem. That assessment will shape the next phase of UK monetary policy. GBPUSD is currently trading near key support around 1.3225. Holding this level could be the first sign that the downward correction is coming to an end. Daily GBPUSD chart, source: TradingView Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Escalating conflict in the Middle East, including strikes on energy infrastructure, caused European shares to drop sharply.European natural gas futures soared 25%, and Brent crude briefly hit $119/barrel, intensifying global inflation fears.Central banks like the ECB and BoE are now under pressure to implement rate hikes to combat energy-driven inflation, reversing previous market expectations for rate cutsMost Read: Gold (XAU/USD) price slides 3.3%. Is Gold offering a discount or facing freefall heading into FOMC?European shares slide on rising Middle East tensionsEuropean markets experienced a significant downturn on Thursday as the escalating conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran triggered a surge in energy prices, complicating the inflation outlook for global central banks.The FTSEurofirst 300 dropped nearly 2% in early trading following a series of strategic strikes on energy infrastructure, including Iran’s South Pars gas field, a major plant in Qatar, and refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The geopolitical instability has fundamentally shifted expectations for monetary policy.Benchmark government bond yields rose as investors anticipated that the European Central Bank (ECB) would now be forced to implement at least two interest rate hikes this year, a sharp reversal from the pre-war forecast of a potential rate cut in 2026.While the Swiss National Bank maintained rates at zero, it signaled a readiness to intervene in currency markets to stabilize the Swiss franc, which has surged as investors flee to traditional "safe haven" assets.The latest volatility follows a violent cycle of retaliation described by US President Donald Trump, who noted that Israel "violently lashed out" against Iran's gas fields on Wednesday.Iran responded by targeting oil and gas facilities across the region, including those in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. This intensification has drawn urgent concern from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, leaving the ECB and the Bank of England to navigate a complex landscape of rising borrowing costs and energy-driven inflation.Brent Crude & European Gas futures soar European natural gas futures soared about 25% to above €68 per MWh on Thursday, reaching their highest levels in over three years.Earlier in the session, Brent had climbed more than $10 to a high of $119.13, close to the three-and-a-half-year peak touched on March 9. Prices of Brent futures have since settled around 114.77 a barrel, a rise of around 6.9%. Source: LSEG These regional disruptions are particularly critical as they coincide with the start of the seasonal stockpiling period. With energy storage levels already sitting roughly 15% below the five-year average following a harsh winter, the sudden loss of Middle Eastern output threatens to leave global reserves significantly depleted heading into the next year.How did FX markets react? The Japanese yen strengthened on Thursday, rising 0.4% to approximately 159.22 per dollar after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at the possibility of an April rate hike.Although the BOJ maintained its current rate at 0.75% and reiterated that the economy is recovering moderately, Ueda’s hawkish lean provided a boost to the currency.Meanwhile, the US dollar index dipped slightly to 100.12, though it remains near a four-month high as investors abandon expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.Markets are now almost entirely pricing in a "hold" for the Fed’s April 29 meeting, with any potential easing being pushed out as far as 2027.In Europe, both the euro and the British pound saw modest gains, rising to $1.1468 and $1.3272, respectively. The pound's movement came alongside data showing that British wage growth excluding bonuses, hit its slowest pace since late 2020.Similarly, the Australian dollar edged up to $0.7050 despite domestic headwinds. February data revealed an uptick in Australia's unemployment rate to 4.3%.The digital asset market did not share in the recovery, as major cryptocurrencies retreated amid the broader geopolitical tension. Bitcoin fell roughly 1.35% to trade near $70,285, while Ether saw a 0.5% decline, dropping to $2,178.This downward trend reflects a cautious "risk-off" sentiment as traders navigate a heavy schedule of central bank meetings overshadowed by the escalating crisis in Iran.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Read More:Morning Market Check – Energy infrastructures attacked in Iran, Bank of Canada holds rates, & US PPIUSD/JPY Conundrum: Intervention risk looms as central banks meet (Fed-BoJ double-header)Chart alert: Gold medium-term downtrend triggered as $4,960 support brokeEconomic calendar and final thoughts The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England are both scheduled to announce their interest rate decisions later today.Expectations are for neither bank to change its current rates, markets will be watching very closely for any clues about how the war in the Middle East might change their future plans.Given the ECB has struggled with high oil prices and inflation in the past, especially during the 2022 energy crisis many people are nervous about what they might do next.However, I believe this situation is different from 2022. My expectation is for ECB President Christine Lagarde to be very careful with her words, similar to how U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been. Because the market has already predicted that rates might go up significantly over the next year, even a small comment from the bank could cause a big reaction.In fact, because expectations are already so high, the ECB might actually sound more relaxed (dovish) than people expect, as they probably aren't ready to commit to a specific plan just yet. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index The UK 100 (FTSE 100) is under heavy bearish pressure, currently trading at 10,079.2 and down 0.42% on the session. The chart shows a decisive break below the significant 10,101.8 support level, following a failure to hold the 10,269.0 handle earlier this week.Technically, the index is trading well below its 50-period SMA (10,509.6) and 200-period SMA (10,475.3), confirming a strong downward trend. The RSI is at 30.2, hovering on the edge of oversold territory, which suggests the selling momentum is aggressive but could be nearing a temporary exhaustion point.What to watch next:Bearish Case: If the price remains below 10,100, the next major psychological floor is 10,000.0, followed by deeper support at 9,973.6.Bullish Case: A recovery would require a "fake-out" reversal back above 10,101.8 to target the 10,269 resistance zone.FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, March 19, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This morning marks a busy start to a busy day with Volatility taking another upside turn.WTI and Energy Commodities bounce again Starting chronologically, a first event has changed the price action in Energy and overall Commodities Markets – As the US-Iran-Israel War continues, now in its 19th day, strategies are evolving and are facing further escalation.After eliminating major IRGC and Basij Generals, the US and Israel launched waves of attack against Gas infrastructures in Iran, particularly the South Pars Gas Fields, which stand very close to Qatar, and the Emirate was not happy about it, as Iran pledged to respond against (more) energy facilities in the Gulf.According to this piece, this could be a strategy to punish European and Asian countries and other nations for failing to make the necessary decisions to protect the Strait of Hormuz – not a surreal take, as these countries are the most affected by such Natural Gas and Crude supply disruptions.In any case, this has led to a solid bounce in Oil, also hurting the broader Markets WTI Oil 2H Chart. March 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView WTI is forming what resembles the beginning to form a range, with the overnight rally just stalling right around yesterday's highs – But it still seems early to say.Note: Right as I'm about to post this, WTI is moving to its session highs – Keep a close eye on the $100 level!What is for sure, is that the fundamentals once again took over the technicals, a classic of Wartime unpredictability.The Head & Shoulders noted yesterday is now void – Watch if a range between $92 and $99 forms or if $100 breaks again.Technical Levels for WTI for FOMC tradingResistance Levels$99.20 morning highs! (broke previous day highs)$98 to $100 Resistance (testing)$101.20 Globex Open highs$106 to $108 June 2022 ResistanceWar highs $116 to $120Support LevelsKey Momentum Pivot $93.00 to $95 (range lows bearish below)2H 50-period MA $96.33$92.70 Overnight lows2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80$69 to $70 Main Support2025 lows $55.00US PPI rises to 0.7% M/M! Largest rise since July 2025 US PPI Data in the past 12 months – Source: Trading Economics The chart is not looking good, particularly if you consider that this is past month data and that things could be looking even uglier next month, with the War adding a 30% premium to Crude prices.This would be the nail in the coffin for US Rate cuts in 2026, but we will learn more on the issue during the FOMC event (14:00 ET).For now, Bonds and Stocks are down but not reacting much to the news – Rises in Crude have a larger influence.But in any case, it's Metals that are taking the hit as Participants await for the Fed – Check out why right here. Metals Future Performance – March 18, 2026. TradingView Bank of Canada leaves rates unchanged, Canadian Dollar holds strong USD/CAD 4H Chart – March 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Bank of Canada just held rates for the 3rd consecutive meeting at 2.25% – Nothing really new in the Statement except for some provisions for change if the Middle East conflict was to span for longer – The BoC is looking for more clarity if they want to move rates further.Economic risks have been marked to the downside, inflation to the upside due to to energy prices – You can access the full statement right here.The Canadian dollar is holding strong after initially falling slightly – It's still supported by Oil prices and that should remain for the time being.For those interested, Macklem is going to appear in a few minutes.Safe Trades as the FOMC approaches!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold (XAU/USD) is down 3.3%, breaking the key $5,000 psychological support level ahead of the FOMCThe market anticipates a "hawkish hold" from the Fed, potentially delaying rate cuts to 2027, which remains a key downside riskTechnically, the breakdown suggests the "path of least resistance" is down, with structural support at $4,760.46Is the selloff offering a discount ahead of the FOMC?Read More: USD/JPY Conundrum: Intervention risk looms as central banks meet (Fed-BoJ double-header)The price of gold is down around 2.3% on the day as the precious metal slides ahead of the key FOMC meeting later in the day.The precious metal has been grinding all week around the $5000/oz mark and has finally made its move. This leaves market participants with an interesting conundrum, is it another buy the dip opportunity or is gold at risk of freefall?FOMC meeting The reason for this question is simple, markets are pretty much resigned to the fact that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold today. The bigger question is around the updated summary of economic projections (SEP) and how that may change.As things stand market participants are leaning toward a hawkish tilt on that front with rate cuts likely being pushed back to 2027.For the full Federal Reserve preview read FOMC Meeting Preview: A ‘hawkish hold’ as geopolitical risk & stagflation fears rise, implications for the DXY & Dow JonesIf such a move takes place, could Gold be sent on a downward spiral? Circling back to today's move and the US Dollar has been relatively steady which should actually be a concern.Gold prices are falling and the US dollar has not even started to recover this week's losses. If the DXY rallies after today's FOMC meeting that could be a catalyst for further downside in Gold prices.Haven demand & discount opportunity Since the February 28 war in Iran began, safe haven demand has been overshadowed by the surge in the US Dollar and diminishing rate cut bets.One would have to think that only a major change in the current conflict and potentially some other developments around the global economy will be needed in order for Gold to receive the haven flows once more (a change in the status quo) if you will.There is another school of thought heading into today's FOMC meeting. It could be that market participants already expecting a hawkish Fed tilt may be frontrunning with today's selloff.Selling the rumor of a hawkish Fed tilt and pricing it in ahead of the actual updates later today and when the meeting takes place we could see buyers return to the fold and buy Gold at what could be considered a discount level ahead of the next potential rally.Is this what we are seeing today? I guess we have to wait and see.Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD) From a technical standpoint, the H4 chart illustrates a clear shift from a bullish "blow-off" top seen earlier in the month to a consolidative, slightly bearish trend.Moving Averages & TrendSMA (50, blue): Currently at $5,095.84. The price has slipped below this short-term trend indicator, which is now acting as immediate dynamic resistance.SMA (100, green): Located at $5,144.74. The widening gap between the 50 and 100 SMAs suggests that the recent bearish momentum is accelerating.Price Structure: The red box highlights a multi-day consolidation zone. The recent breakdown below this box (around $5,020) suggests that the "path of least resistance" has shifted to the downside in the short term.Support and Resistance LevelsCritical Resistance: $5,128.50 and $5,096.72. These levels align with the recent consolidation floor and the 50-period SMA. A break above these would be required to neutralize the bearish bias.Psychological Support: $5,000.00. This is the "line in the sand." As seen on the far right of the chart, the price is aggressively testing this level.Structural Support: $4,760.46. This represents a major historical floor. If $5,000 fails to hold on a daily closing basis, this is the primary downside target.Momentum IndicatorsRSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently reading 27.32.This indicates that Gold is in oversold territory on the H4 timeframe.While this often precedes a temporary bounce (mean reversion), in a strong downtrend, an oversold RSI can "stay low" for extended periods as price grinds down.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, March 18, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways BoJ policy pause amid stagflation risks: The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.75%, balancing rising inflation with slowing growth as higher oil prices from the US–Iran war in 2026 weigh on Japan’s economy and consumer confidence.Mixed macro signals but tightening bias intact: While weak equity performance (e.g., Nikkei 225 down ~9%) signals soft sentiment, improving wages and sticky inflation support expectations for at least one 25 bps rate hike in 2026.Yen under pressure near intervention zone: The USD/JPY is hovering around the 159.45–161.95 intervention risk zone, keeping markets cautious. A break below 157.50 could trigger near-term USD weakness, while continued yen depreciation raises the risk of official intervention. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to keep the policy interest rate unchanged at 0. 75% when it concludes its two-day monetary policy meeting on Thursday, 19 March 2026, as the current elevated oil prices due to a prolonged US-Iran conflict stoke stagflation risk.Japan’s Nikkei 225 is signaling a lackluster consumer confidence Fig. 1: Nikkei 225 & major global benchmark stock indices from 27 Feb 2026 to 17 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) Japan is a major net oil importer, where it gets more than 90% of its crude oil from the Middle East, hence, soaring oil prices are set to push up daily living costs in Japan, in turn, dampen consumer and business confidence, and eventually slow down economic growth.This negative feedback loop is at play, where Japan’s Nikkei 225 is the second-worst-performing global benchmark stock index, that shed -9% since the start of the US-Iran war as of Tuesday, 17 March 2026 (see Fig. 1).Japan’s real wages rose for the first time in January 2026 Fig. 2: Key economic data that BoJ monitors as of Jan-Feb 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) In a parliamentary speech on Tuesday, BoJ Governor Ueda reiterated that underlying inflation is gradually accelerating toward the 2% target. In addition, Ueda mentioned that wages and prices are rising moderately together, as companies become more willing to pass on higher input and labour costs.Before the US-Iran war, Japan’s real wages rose for the first time in 13 months in January to hit a growth rate of 1.40% y/y (see Fig 2). Also, Japan’s large corporations are expected to offer wage increases of 5% or more for the third consecutive year after the conclusion of this year’s annual spring wage talks on Wednesday.BoJ is still expecting to hike by 25 bps in 2026 Fig. 3: Japan overnight indexed swap rates as of 17 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) The interest rate swap market in Japan is still implying BoJ is looking to hike its policy rate by at least 25 basis points in 2026. The 1-year overnight indexed swap rate has held steady at 1% and increased slightly to 1.03% as of Tuesday, 17 March 2026, and is also above the 1-month overnight indexed swap rate quoted at 0.74% (see Fig. 3).BoJ Governor’s press conference will be in focus as USD/JPY hovers at 159.45/161.95 key intervention risk zone Fig. 4: USD/JPY medium-term trend as of 18 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) BoJ Governor Ueda’s press conference after the monetary policy decision will be at 3.30 p.m. (Tokyo time) on Thursday, 19 March 2026.Ueda will elaborate on the BoJ’s reasoning behind the current policy decision, and in the past press conferences, Ueda tends to paint a balancing act and tilt towards a dovish stance, in turn, often weakening the Japanese yen thereafter.However, this time round it might be different as the yen has weakened significantly since the onset of the US-Iran war, where it hit almost a 20-month low against the US dollar at 159.75 on last Friday, 13 March 2026, slightly above the previous intervention level of 159.45, where Japanese authorities sold the US dollar and brought back the yen on 12 July 2024.The USD/JPY is now trading at 159.00 at this time of writing. Hence, short-term speculators are likely to be cautious about taking aggressive yen short positions as the USD/JPY continues to fluctuate around the key intervention risk zone of 159.45/161.95 (see Fig. 4).Short-term US dollar bears may get traction if USD/JPY breaks below the key near-term support of 157.50 (also the 20-day moving average) to trigger a potential minor decline towards the next support at 154.65 (23 February 2026 swing low and close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the current up move from the 12 February 2026 low to 13 March 2026 high) (see Fig. 4). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

European shares, including the STOXX 600, extended their recovery for a third day, driven by easing oil prices and stronger overall market sentimentOil prices (Brent and WTI) retreated due to the restart of crude exports from Iraq’s Kirkuk fields and a much larger-than-expected rise in US crude stocks.Focus shifts to the upcoming FOMC meeting, where a "hawkish hold" is expected, with a strong possibility of adjusting the "Dot Plot" to show zero rate cuts for 2026.Most Read: FOMC Meeting Preview: A ‘hawkish hold’ as geopolitical risk & stagflation fears rise, implications for the DXY & Dow JonesEuropean shares extend recovery for a third dayEuropean stock markets continued to climb on Wednesday. Investors were feeling more optimistic as oil prices dropped, due to easing supply concerns.This in turn aided overall sentiment and thus gave risk assets a boost coupled with a bullish outlook by NVIDIA. Market HighlightsSTOXX 600: This main European index rose 0.5% to 605.59 points. This marks the third day in a row the index has gone up, which is its best performance in a month.Energy vs. Finance: The .SXEP (Energy) sector fell 0.3%, ending an eight-day winning streak because of lower oil prices. On the flip side, .SX7P (Financial) stocks were the biggest reason the overall market stayed positive.Global Context: Markets around the world are recovering because oil prices stopped rising, despite the growing tension between Israel and Iran.This follows on from a strong Asian session where Japan's stock market saw a strong recovery as the Nikkei climbed 2.87% to reach 55,239.4, effectively ending a four-day period of losses.Similarly, the Topix, which tracks a broader range of companies, rose 2.49% to finish at 3,717.41.How did FX markets react? The US dollar weakened for the third day in a row. The dollar index, which compares the US currency against six other major ones, dropped 0.04% to 99.51.In response, several other global currencies gained value: the euro rose to $1.1543, while the Japanese yen strengthened to 158.64 per dollar.Sterling also saw a small increase to $1.3368.In the Oceania region, both the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar moved higher, reaching $0.7117 and $0.5868, respectively.The cryptocurrency market showed mixed results, as bitcoin BTC/USD fell 0.50% to $74,184.63, while Ethereum ETH/USD managed a slight gain of 0.04% to reach $2,329.46.Currency Strength Chart Source: OANDA Labs Commodities & Energy Gold prices remained mostly stable on Wednesday as investors cautiously watched the Middle East conflict while waiting for the US Federal Reserve’s latest policy update.Spot gold and US gold futures both saw slight increases of 0.1%, reaching $5,008.58 and $5,012.60 respectively.While the ongoing Iran conflict has kept Brent futures above $100 for several days, prices finally retreated on Wednesday, dropping 1.46% to $101.91.Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.86% to $93.46.This dip in oil prices was largely driven by the restart of crude exports from Iraq’s Kirkuk fields to Turkey, following an agreement between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government.This provided some relief to a market worried about supply shortages, especially since Iraq aims to pump at least 100,000 barrels per day through the pipeline.Additionally, data from the API suggested a significant rise in US crude stocks by over 6.5 million barrels, a much larger increase than the 380,000 barrels predicted by a recent Reuters poll.Read More:Technical levels for major FX pairs ahead of the FOMCUSD/JPY Conundrum: Intervention risk looms as central banks meet (Fed-BoJ double-header)Weekly Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast: 3% slide to $5000/oz as rate cut bets tumble, FOMC up nextEconomic Data Releases and Final Thoughts It is a quiet day on the European calendar with the final release of the Euro Area CPI the highlight. Barring any surprise from the print it should be a quiet session with eyes turning to the US session.US PPI data will kick things off following the Bank of Canada rate decisions where markets are expecting the BoC to hold rates firm.The Federal Reserve meeting will then be the focus where the FED is expected to keep interest rates steady, but there is a strong possibility they will adjust their "Dot Plot" projections to show no rate cuts for 2026.If the median forecast shifts from one cut to zero, the US dollar will likely see a boost.Conversely, the market might still hope for a rate cut if the Fed's statement highlights "downside risks" regarding the job market.Chair Powell is unlikely to give firm guidance on how the Middle East conflict affects inflation and growth, as commodity markets remain too volatile. While the dollar may see a brief rally following the Fed’s new projections, its value will likely stay tied to fluctuating oil prices and geopolitical news. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index is currently locked in a consolidation phase, attempting to establish a viable floor.We are on course for a third day of gains but price needs to break above the 200-day MA at 10476 to convince bulls that the consolidation may be over.The index is trading in a tight range centered around 10269-10476 area as buyers and sellers battle for control.Immediate Resistance: The first hurdle for bulls sits at 10,476, which aligns with the 200-period Simple Moving Average (yellow line). A break above this would target the psychological 10536 level (dark blue line), which formerly acted as support and has now flipped to resistance.Key Support: On the downside, the 10350 level is the immediate line in the sand. Should this fail, the recent swing low at 10,101 represents the final major support before the psychological 10,000 mark comes into play.The technical "death cross" or bearish alignment of the moving averages suggests that the path of least resistance remains tilted to the downside.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) period-14 is finally above the 50 handle which does hint at some bullish momentum.The lack of a clear divergence suggests that while the aggressive selling has paused, there is currently no strong conviction for a sustained breakout.FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, March 18, 2026 Source: TradingView Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The USD/JPY pair is trading around 158.90, facing a high risk of FX intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance as it nears the 160.00 level.The week is dominated by a "central bank double-header," with the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan meeting on Thursday.Check out the possible scenario matrix i have put together. What would a BoJ and Fed hawkish tilt mean?Most Read: FOMC Meeting Preview: A ‘hawkish hold’ as geopolitical risk & stagflation fears rise, implications for the DXY & Dow JonesUSD/JPY is caught in a real conundrum at present and continues to edge lower ahead of a crucial pair of central bank meetings. The pair trades at 158.90 right now as the 160.00 handle still remains elusive.The question that is also keeping markets on edge with USD/JPY is the potential for FX intervention as both the FED and BoJ would like to see USD/JPY lower. For different reasons of course but this appears to be the case. Looking at the longer term bullish trend which still remains intact, it has been largely supported by the gap between US and Japanese bond yields. This remains a key factor that will play a role moving forward.While the USD is currently overbought, buyers remain in control as long as the Fed stays hawkish and the BoJ remains relatively loose.With these more longer term factors playing out, focus will shift back to the now. The rest of this week will be key and could be the deciding factor in whether FX intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance will support the Yen.What to watch for the rest of the week The week ahead is dominated by a "central bank double-header" that will likely determine the next major trend for USD/JPY. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The Federal Reserve (Wednesday, March 18)The Decision: The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 3.75%.The Impact: The real movement will come from the "Dot Plot" (projections for future rate cuts). If the Fed signals fewer cuts for 2026 due to sticky inflation (currently around 3.1%), the US Dollar could surge, potentially testing the 160.00 level against the YenThe Bank of Japan (Thursday, March 19)The Decision: The BoJ is forecast to keep its policy rate at 0.75%.The Impact: Markets will look for the BoJ’s assessment of rising energy costs. If the BoJ sounds concerned that high oil prices are hurting the economy, they may delay further rate hikes, which would weaken the Yen. However, any hint of a "hawkish" shift to combat inflation could trigger a sharp pullback in USD/JPY.Below I have compiled my own matrix for potential scenarios depending on how the Central Bank meetings turns out. Obviously this is not a given and it is just my personal opinion, as high volatility is likely a given especially if we trade near the 160.00 level ahead of either meeting. Created by Zain Vawda USD/JPY Daily Chart, March 18, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

It has been what felt like a few years since the previous FOMC, with what resembles a totally different Market since.Since January 28, Oil is up close to 60%, Silver is down 25%, previously indestructible US Indexes have eased between 3% to 5%, and the World is now looking very different. Asset Performance since the January FOMC – March 17, 2026. Source: TradingView But what is probably the most overlooked Market development remains the US Dollar, aka Petrodollar that reached 10 months highs last Friday, as record bearish positioning led to swift position closures; hence rebounds.The global Reserve Currency takes the upper hand when it comes down to a squeeze in Oil prices, with countries around the globe forced to hedge, and trade in US Dollars for ever-more expensive Barrels of Crude.This phenomenon also got magnified by the swift pricing out of Fed Cuts, going from 65 bps pre-conflict to the current ~20 bps.We will dive into an intraday chart outlook for all Major FX Currency pairs and provide trading levels for the upcoming FOMC event, as traders are anxiously awaiting for the Fed's own economic projections and impacts from the conflict.Don't forget to check out our recent FOMC analysis right here. Read More:Head and Shoulders in WTI! Is the rally over for Crude Oil? Stock Markets Mixed ahead of FOMCFOMC Meeting Preview: A ‘hawkish hold’ as geopolitical risk & stagflation fears rise, implications for the DXY & Dow JonesPre-FOMC Metals review: Platinum (XPT/USD) outperforms its peers, Copper (XCU/USD) strugglesMetals fake-out to the downside; Opportunity? – Gold (XAU/USD) & Silver (XAG/USD) updateAll FX Majors Charts with the key levels in play for the March FOMCNZD/USD 4H Chart and technical levels NZD/USD 4H Chart, March 17, 2026, Source: TradingView FOMC Trading Levels for NZD/USD:Resistance Levels4H 50-period MA 0.587800.5885 to 0.59 Momentum Pivot0.5930 to 0.5950 (+/- 70 pips) Pivotal ResistanceMarch Resistance 0.60 to 0.60150July 2025 Resistance 0.6060 to 0.6070Support Levels0.5850 December High Pivotal Support0.5770 to 0.5790 Mini-SupportMain Support 0.5720 to 0.5750USD/JPY 4H Chart and technical levels USD/JPY 4H Chart, March 17, 2026, Source: TradingView FOMC Trading Levels for USD/JPY:Resistance Levels158.50 to 159.50 2026 Major resistance159.75 2026 HighsApril 2024 160.00 to 160.40 Major ResistanceSupport Levels4H 50-period MA 158.63Dec highs Major Pivot 157.40 to 157.65156.00 Pivotal SupportAUD/USD 4H Chart and technical levels AUD/USD 4H Chart, March 17, 2026, Source: TradingView FOMC Trading Levels for AUD/USD:Resistance levels0.71867 2026 Highs2023 Highs from 0.71 to 0.7150 ResistanceJune 2022 Extremes 0.72 to 0.7230Support levelsDec 2021 Lows 0.6970 to 0.70 Major Pivot0.69 to 0.6935 Early Feb SupportMicro-support 0.6850 (+/- 30 pips)October 2024 Minor support 0.6750 (+/- 100 pips)EUR/USD 4H Chart and trading levels EUR/USD 4H Chart, March 17, 2026, Source: TradingView FOMC Levels to watch for EURUSD:Resistance Levels:1.1540 to 1.1570 Momentum Pivot (4H 50-MA and Channel top)Resistance 1.16250 to 1.163501.1650 to 1.17 March ResistanceSupport Levels:1.1475 to 1.15 November SupportAugust 2025 Lows 1.14Channel lows 1.35670USD/CHF 4H Chart and technical levels USD/CHF 4H Chart, March 17, 2026, Source: TradingView FOMC Levels to watch for USD/CHF:Resistance Levels0.7850 2025 lows Pivotal Resistance (Bullish Above – testing)Recent highs 0.793100.7950 Minor Resistance0.80 Next resistanceSupport Levels4H 50-period MA 0.78270.7780 to 0.78 Momentum Pivot0.77 to 0.7725 August 2011 Lows Support0.76 Support zone July 2011GBP/USD 4H Chart and trading levels – Reaching 2025 highs GBP/USD 4H Chart, March 17, 2026, Source: TradingView FOMC Levels to watch for GBPUSD:Resistance Levels50-period MA 1.33540 (immediate test)Key pivot 1.34 to 1.34404H 200-period MA 1.3508December Resistance 1.36Support LevelsPivotal Support 1.33 - 1.33401.3120 December SupportEnd 2025 Support at 1.30 Zone (+/- 300 pips)USD/CAD 4H Chart and trading levels – Reaching 2025 highs USD/CAD 4H Chart, March 17, 2026, Source: TradingView Levels to watch for USD/CAD:Resistance Levels1.3750 Pivotal Resistance (Recent rejection)1.37418 weekly highs1.38 Handle Resistance +/- 150 pipsSupport Levels1.3630 to 1.3660 Mid-Range Pivot1.3550 to 1.3570 Main 2025 Support1.35 Key Psychological Support – Pre-2025 CAD weakening level1.34 Next Main SupportHappy Saint-Patrick and Safe Trades as the FOMC approaches!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Choppy price action amid conflicting drivers: The AUD/USD has turned volatile, with commodity strength providing support while rising risk aversion, driven by stagflation fears from the US–Iran war 2026, has capped gains, leading to a failed breakout above 0.7140.Hawkish RBA outlook offers medium-term support: Expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may deliver more than two rate hikes in 2026, potentially a third, are supporting the Australian dollar as inflation remains above target.Key levels to determine next move: Near-term support sits at 0.7015, with a break above 0.7140 needed to reignite bullish momentum toward 0.7190–0.7266, while a drop below support risks a pullback toward 0.6980–0.6944. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart alert: AUD/USD bullish breakout (finally) above 0.7140, new bullish impulsive up move sequence triggered”, published on 11 March 2026.The price actions of the AUD/USD have been choppy in the past five days as it grappled with conflicting elements that drove short-term movements.Read more: RBA Preview: Why a 25bps hike to 4.1% is the most likely outcomeFirmer commodity prices (excluding precious metals) due to rising oil prices are providing a floor and, in some form, a tailwind on the AUD/USD, as the Australian dollar is often labeled as a “commodity currency” due to the resource-rich Australian economy.On the other hand, the Australian dollar is also sensitive to changes in risk appetite, where a sudden increase in risk aversion in global markets (spurt of risk-off behaviour where equities get sold off) triggers a downside drift in the AUD/USD.Higher oil prices seen in the past week have been linked to stagflation fears, which in turn drives up risk aversion due to the slower growth effect, creating a negative feedback loop in the AUD/USD.The AUD/USD almost erased the earlier rally of 3% from the 9 March 2026 low of 0.6957 to the 11 March 2026 high of 0.7187 and declined by 2.9% to print a recent minor low of 0.6980 on last Friday, 13 March 2026, creating a failed bullish breakout above 0.7140.RBA may not stop at two interest rate hikes in 2026 Fig. 1: Australia overnight indexed swap rates as of 13 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) The Australian central bank, RBA, is expected to enact its second-interest rate hike of 25 basis points (bps) in 2026 later today to bring the policy cash rate higher to 4.1%.The RBA ended its easing cycle in August 2025, and due to higher inflationary expectations, which may lead to the inflation trend in Australia (trimmed mean CPI at 3.4% y/y in January) remaining sticky above the RBA’s long-term inflation rate target of 2%-3%, RBA governor Bullock is likely to paint a hawkish guidance in the press conference to signal further potential rate hikes.Based on the overnight indexed swap (OIS) market in Australia, the spread between the 6-month OIS rate and 1-month OIS rate has widened further, and the 6-month OIS rate was at 4.24% as of Friday, 13 March 2026 (see Fig. 1).Hence, a third-interest rate hike by the RBA in the summer months of 2026 cannot be ruled out, which in turn may offer support for a firmer AUD/USD.Let us now focus on the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory of the AUD/USD from a technical analysis perspective.AUD/USD - Found support with revival of bullish momentum Fig. 2: AUD/USD minor trend as of 17 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 3: AUD/USD medium-term & major trends as of 17 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the 0.7015 key short-term pivotal support for a further potential push up to retest 0.7120 and 0.7140. A daily close above 0.7140 is likely to trigger a potential fresh bullish impulsive up move sequence to see the next intermediate resistances coming in at 0.7190 and 0.7246/7266 in the first step.On the other hand, failure to hold at 0.7015 sees weakness to expose the next intermediate supports at 0.6980 and 0.6944 (also the 50-day moving average).Key elements to support the short-term bullish bias on AUD/USD The recent minor decline from the 11 March 2026 high to the 13 March 2026 low has managed to stall and find support at the former minor descending channel resistance from the 27 February 2026 high (see Fig. 2).The daily RSI momentum indicator has just staged a rebound right above its key ascending trendline support at the 43 level on Monday, 16 March 2026 (see Fig. 3). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 16 Trying to make sense of today's price action was just a headache – and this resumes the latest Market action fairly well.If you were only looking at Oil and the US Dollar, things were at least a bit coherent. After closing at $98 last Friday, Crude opened with a scary gap higher to $102, but has since retracted below $95.Naturally, the Petrodollar followed suit, tumbling 1% on average against most of its FX counterparts. Antipodean currencies loved it the most, with the Kiwi Dollar bouncing after a rough first half of the Month, along with the Aussie Dollar.The reasoning for this is that signs of life in the Strait of Hormuz have emerged, with Iran still leveraging its influence in the most significant region in recent days.A Pakistani tanker crossed the Strait overnight, as the Pakistani government condemned the ongoing American attacks against the Iranian regime.But that wasn't the only tanker crossing, with two Indian LNG ships making their way between the small Hormuz and Larak Kuhi islands, seemingly avoiding the larger Strait.This, along with an Axios report revealing that communications between Washington and Iran have reopened, helped to soothe Market sentiment.Global Equities have all appreciated in a cautious rebound, but the fact that they did not close at their session highs indicates that the path ahead remains uncertain.What is for sure is that Metals are now facing a mix of headwinds, including a seemingly worsening Iran conflict, inflationary fears, and general positioning ahead of this week's huge Central Bank calendar. To learn more about what's coming up this week, go check out our Weekly Markets outlook. Read More:Metals fake-out to the downside; Opportunity? – Gold (XAU/USD) & Silver (XAG/USD) updateA test of confidence for Stocks – Dow Jones and US Index OutlookRBA Preview: Why a 25bps hike to 4.1% is the most likely outcomeStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 16, 2026 The Stock Market heatmap is looking much more mixed than it was at the peak of today's action. Nevertheless, a few sectors have arisen from today's rebound.Tech continues to find relief, along with Transportations and Producer Manufacturing – Still, keep a close eye on what happens to the Financials with the ongoing Private Credit stress narratives.Nvidia just showed a pump-fake at the end of the session, with the CEO Jensen Huang forecasting even larger revenues ahead – Something that Markets have been widely punishing as of late.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today's session marked some easing in the inflationary pressures, as can be seen with risk-assets rebounding, but also dragging Bonds with them while the Dollar and Crude combo struggled.Cryptocurrencies have been bouncing quite stunningly as of late, breaching many of their prior resistances – and the best sign for aficionados is that altcoins are actually leading the move.If Bitcoin extends above $76,000, the technical outlook will be firmly better for Cryptos.Check out our latest Crypto analysis right here!A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 16, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs As you can see, today really saw a broad appreciation from Greenback struggles, with Antipodeans really outperforming their peers.Regional hikes and hawkish communications are helping their case, particularly when Oil flows may start to take a turn for the better.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The overnight to tomorrow sessions will be showing the thinnest action ahead of an even larger week ahead.The major event will be happening tonight, with the RBA meeting going through. A 25 bps back to 4.1% is expected – Check out our preview for the event right here.Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets are pricing in a 68% probability for a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike, lifting the cash rate to 4.1%.The board needs to move policy past the current "neutral" rate (where interest rate ≈ inflation) to cool the "very hot" economy and suppress climbing prices.A hawkish statement pointing to further hikes could propel AUD/USD toward 0.7200, while a non-committal tone could trigger a drop to 0.6940.An escalating Iran conflict and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz complicates the path forward beyond this weeks meeting.Read More: Weekly Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast: 3% slide to $5000/oz as rate cut bets tumble, FOMC up nextThe meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled for Tuesday March 17, 2026 at 03:30am GMT. The transition from a period of disinflationary hopes in 2025 to a "live" hiking cycle in early 2026 represents one of the most abrupt pivots in recent Australian central banking history.At the center of this volatility is the escalation of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, which has transformed from a regional skirmish into a systemic threat to global energy security and maritime trade.The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for roughly 20% of the world's liquid energy supplies, has introduced a "nightmare scenario" for policymakers: a classic supply-side shock that threatens to unanchor inflation expectations while simultaneously suppressing economic activity.Prior to the conflict in the Middle East though, markets were already leaning toward an RBA rate hike at Tuesday's meeting.What are markets expecting? As things stand market participants and economists are still leaning toward a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike, which would take the cash rate to 4.1%.Market Pricing: Overnight index swaps (OIS) currently imply a 68% probability of a hike, a significant jump from early March expectations.Analyst Consensus: A Bloomberg survey shows 24 out of 33 analysts now forecast a 25bps increase this month.Hawkish Signaling: Recent comments from Governor Michele Bullock and Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser have labeled the March meeting as "live". Hauser specifically warned that keeping rates too low could fuel a "damaging rise" in inflation expectations.This seems like the most likely outcome for tomorrow as the RBA remains concerned about inflationary pressure.The board are worried that their current strategy isn't doing enough to slow things down. Right now, the interest rate is 3.85%, but since prices are rising by 3.8%, the "real" cost of borrowing is basically nothing. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) In simple terms, when the interest rate and the inflation rate are almost the same, the policy is "neutral", it isn't really helping or hurting. Because almost everyone who wants a job has one (full employment), the economy is running very hot.To actually cool things down and stop prices from climbing, the bank believes they need to move past this neutral point and make borrowing expensive enough to discourage extra spending.Outlook moving forward The March decision may be the start of a renewed tightening phase rather than a one-off move.Further Hikes: Several major banks (ANZ, CBA, NAB, Westpac) now expect a follow-up 25bps hike in May, potentially bringing the terminal rate to 4.35%.Prolonged Target Horizon: In February, the RBA forecast that trimmed mean inflation would not return to the target band until H1 2027 and wouldn't reach the 2.5% midpoint until H1 2028.Economic Slowdown: Tighter policy and energy price headwinds are expected to lower 2026 GDP growth to roughly 1.9%, with unemployment potentially rising toward 4.5% by year-end.Now of course, if the war in the Middle East persists and oil prices remain high the entire outlook may change and inflation may surge.A lot to consider not just for the RBA but global central banks if the Middle East conflict drags on at the current pace.Market reactions and AUD/USD technical dynamics The Australian dollar (AUD) has been highly sensitive to the shifting RBA outlook. Throughout mid-March, the AUD/USD pair has experienced a "tug-of-war" between domestic hawkishness and global risk aversion.While the US dollar (USD) has strengthened as a safe-haven asset due to the Iran conflict, the AUD has been supported by the rising probability of a 4.10% cash rate.Technically, the AUD/USD reached a 45-month high of 0.7189 in the middle of the week prior to the meeting, but has since pulled back to test the 0.7000 handle.If the RBA hikes as expected but adopts a more patient or "wait-and-see" tone for the future, the AUD could see a "sell the fact" reaction, potentially dropping toward the 0.6940 support level.Conversely, a hawkish statement that explicitly points toward a May hike and a 4.35% terminal rate could propel the AUD/USD back toward the 0.7200 mark.US Dollar Index (DXY) Chart, March 16, 2026 Source: TradingView.Com (click image to enlarge). Conclusion The March decision will be a signal of the RBA’s resolve. By choosing to act pre-emptively, the Bank is attempting to avoid the systemic failures of 2022 and 2025, hoping that a firm hand now will prevent the need for a much more destructive tightening cycle later in the year.The path forward remains fraught with geopolitical peril, and uncertainty. Either way volatility appears inevitable.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (16/03/2026): With all signs pointing towards a bumper week of trading, join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart in discussing current question marks over global monetary policy amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil prices steady near $100/barrel due to US strikes on Kharg Island and ongoing Middle East conflict, raising global inflation concernsAsian and European stock markets saw a cautious, mixed start, with investors focused on upcoming policy decisions from eight major central banks.The US dollar pulled back slightly from a 10-month peak, Canadian CPI data ahead.Most Read: Chart alert: WTI crude oil rally almost reached $102.25, risk of minor setback towards $88.36Monday saw a cautious atmosphere across Asian markets as ongoing tensions in the Gulf maintained high oil prices, complicating the global inflation outlook. This geopolitical strain is expected to keep most central banks from adjusting rates during their upcoming policy meetings, though at least one hike is still anticipated.Despite the tension, a glimmer of stability emerged following a Wall Street Journal report suggesting the Trump administration may soon announce a coalition of countries dedicated to escorting vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.While President Trump warned that a lack of ally participation would negatively impact the future of NATO, markets remained largely skeptical. This uncertainty resulted in a mixed performance for risk assets; Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.3%, whereas South Korean stocks managed a 0.7% gain after a difficult previous week.Overall, the MSCI Asia-Pacific index outside of Japan saw a modest increase of 0.4%.In China, blue-chip stocks declined by 0.5% despite economic data for January and February showing that retail sales and industrial output exceeded expectations.Markets appeared more focused on the real estate sector, where housing prices continued their downward trend, offsetting the positive news from the industrial and retail sectors.European shares flat at the start of the week European markets mirrored its Asian counterparts with a cautious start to the week.The STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 indices remained largely flat. Traders are keeping a close watch on developments in the Middle East as the market prepares for a high-stakes week of central bank policy decisions from both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.Boosted by the climb in crude prices, the energy sector spearheaded market gains. Major players such as Shell and TotalEnergies saw modest upticks, joined by slight advances from HSBC and Unilever.However, the most notable activity occurred in the banking sector; Commerzbank surged by 3.6% following UniCredit’s move to increase its stake in the German lender to over 30%. While UniCredit shares also rose by 0.8% on the news, the broader market was weighed down by a slump in the healthcare sector, with Roche, Novartis, and AstraZeneca all trading in the red.How did FX markets react? The US dollar experienced a slight retreat from its 10-month peak, with the dollar index easing to 100.29. This minor decline follows a robust 1.5% gain last week and comes as the global financial community prepares for a high-stakes week.Markets are bracing for policy meetings from at least eight major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, marking their first official gatherings since the onset of the conflict in the Middle East.Market participants are particularly keen to see how these policymakers balance the inflationary pressures of elevated oil prices against broader risks to economic growth.As the dollar cooled, several major currencies saw a brief reprieve.The euro managed to bounce back 0.2% to $1.1440 after touching a 7-1/2-month low earlier in the session.Similarly, sterling climbed 0.23% to $1.3253, though it remains uncomfortably close to the 3-1/2-month low it hit last Friday following a sharp weekly decline.The New Zealand dollar also gained 0.5%, while the onshore yuan held steady as investors weighed new economic data alongside the progression of Sino-US trade negotiations.The Australian dollar was a notable outperformer, rising 0.43% to $0.7010. This strength was driven by hawkish expectations surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s upcoming meeting on Tuesday. With markets currently pricing in a 72% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, the Australian dollar is benefiting from a divergence in sentiment as other central banks remain in a more cautious "wait-and-see" posture.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Commodities impact after Kharg island strikes Oil prices surged on Monday as market attention shifted back to the vulnerabilities of Middle East energy infrastructure.Despite President Trump’s public calls for an international coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz, supply anxieties were heightened by US strikes on Kharg Island over the weekend.The island serves as the primary conduit for Iranian oil exports, currently the dominant flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets remain wary of potential disruptions, even though the strikes reportedly targeted military assets rather than energy facilities.By mid-morning, Brent crude futures climbed $2.73 to reach $105.87 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate followed suit with a 1.7% increase to $100.36.These gains build on an already strong performance from the previous Friday, reflecting a market deeply concerned about the regional stability of global energy shipments.In the metals market, gold prices managed to stabilize after recovering from a three-week low hit earlier in the session.Spot gold edged up 0.2% to $5,027.98 per ounce, supported by a softening US dollar and lingering safe-haven demand.However, the upside for the precious metal remains capped by the realization that elevated energy prices may force the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts, a sentiment reflected in the 0.6% dip of US gold futures for April delivery.Read More:The Financial Damage of War – Markets Weekly OutlookWeekly Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast: 3% slide to $5000/oz as rate cut bets tumble, FOMC up nextGBP/USD at the Crossroads: Will cable break the 1.3437 resistance?Economic calendar and final thoughts It is a quiet start to the week on the data front with the only high impact release today coming from Canada, with inflation data due in the US session.The Middle East conflict showed no signs of easing over the weekend as the US and Israeli militaries continued their campaign against strategic Iranian targets. In response, Iran has maintained its efforts to disrupt the regional economy, keeping the vital Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to global shipping.While the US push for a naval escort coalition signals a lack of immediate diplomatic resolution, markets have shifted their focus toward the impending response from global financial authorities.This week is a critical juncture for monetary policy, with eight of the G10 central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England scheduled to meet.The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently testing the upper limit of its nine-month trading range, holding steady between 100.35 and 100.40. Although a more stable equity market this Monday suggests the dollar may pause before climbing further, market participants remain hesitant to bet against its strength until there is concrete evidence of de-escalation in the Gulf. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index continued its decline this morning breaking back below a key support area.After a sharp decline from March peaks, the index is consolidating near the bottom of its recent range, struggling to reclaim key moving averages.Key Technical LevelsResistance: The immediate hurdle is the 10,269 level. Above that, the 200-period SMA (yellow) at 10,467 and the 50-period SMA (black) at 10,564 act as significant dynamic resistance.Support: Strong psychological and technical support sits at 10,101. A break below this could signal a deeper move toward the 10,000 handle.Momentum IndicatorsThe RSI (14) is currently flat at 44.0, indicating a lack of bullish conviction but also suggesting the market is not yet oversold. Having recently moved away from "Bull" signals in early March, the index is now in a "wait-and-see" phase.Outlook: Neutral-to-Bearish. Until the FTSE can clear the moving average cluster, the path of least resistance remains lower.FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, March 16, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Oil rebound driven by ongoing conflict risks: West Texas Intermediate crude oil has rebounded 32% to around $101 after a sharp prior correction, as the US–Iran war 2026, now in its 17th day, continues to fuel concerns over supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.Medium-term bullish bias remains intact: Prediction market data from Polymarket suggests the highest probability of a ceasefire only by June, implying geopolitical risk premiums may persist and support oil’s broader uptrend in the coming months.Short-term pullback risk near resistance: Technically, WTI is approaching $105.85 key resistance, where momentum appears to be fading. Failure to break higher could trigger a minor corrective pullback toward $92.60–$88.36, while a breakout above $105.85 would reopen upside toward $116–$119. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart alert: WTI crude oil resumes uptrend above $88.00 despite historical IEA stockpile release”, published on 12 March 2026.The price actions of the West Texas (WTI) crude oil have staged an expected bullish reversal after the two-day decline of around 35% from its four-year high printed on last Monday, 9 March 2026, to the 11 March 2026 low.So far, it has gained by 32% to hit an intraday high of $101.19/barrel in today’s Asia session, 16 March 2026, as the US-Iran war enters the 17th day.Before we dive into the technical analysis and relevant macro elements of WTI crude oil, here are the latest headlines surrounding the US-Iran conflict in the last 24 hours.The key port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates was hit again on Monday, the latest in a series of strikes on the site that’s the only outlet for the country that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.Dubai resumes flights after a temporary suspension due to a drone incident.US President Donald Trump is “demanding” that other countries help secure transit through the Strait of Hormuz; Australia and Japan said they don’t have plans to send warships to the region now.Trump again claimed the US and Iran are in talks and said any deal must include Tehran’s nuclear program. Iran has said it hasn’t asked for negotiations or a ceasefire.Prediction market’s highest probability of a ceasefire is in June Fig. 1: Polymarket US-Iran ceasefire timing odds as of 16 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) Data from the prediction market platform, Polymarket, where participants trade contracts based on the probability of future events.The above chart reflects the market-implied probability of an official ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran on various specific dates.Based on data as of Monday, 16 March 2026, at the time of writing, the lowest odds of 12.5% is being priced by 31 March, with the highest odds of 58.5% by 30 June (see Fig. 1).Hence, in the next two months, WTI crude oil is likely to maintain its medium-term uptrend phase in place from the 16 December 2025 low.Let's now focus on the potential short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of WTI crude oil.WTI Crude Oil – Near-term bullish momentum has eased Fig. 2: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 16 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) At risk of a minor corrective pull-back to retrace a certain portion of the minor uptrend phase from the 11 March 2026 low for the West Texas Oil CFD index (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures).Watch the $105.85 key short-term pivotal resistance for a potential push down towards the next intermediate supports at $92.60 and $88.36 (also the minor ascending trendline support from 26 February 2026 low) (see Fig. 2).On the other hand, a clearance and hourly closing above $105.85 invalidates the near-term bearish scenario for a squeeze up to retest $116.56/119.54 before targeting the next resistance at 124.40.Key elements to support the near-term bearish bias on WTI crude The hourly RSI momentum indicator has found resistance at around the 67 level, which indicates a potential easing of short-term bullish momentum.Based on the Elliot Wave/fractal analysis, the short-term price structure of the West Texas Oil CFD index has traced out a potential five-wave minor uptrend impulsive up move cycle labelled as i, ii, iii, iv, v.The current price action is likely considered as the bullish impulsive wave v movement with its potential terminal level at $105.85 (0.618 Fibonacci extension) to complete the minor five-wave uptrend impulsive up move cycle. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold (XAU/USD) is under pressure, sliding this week as its safe haven appeal was overshadowed by a strengthening US dollar.Rate cut bets were slashed significantly due to fears over the Middle East conflict's impact on inflation, particularly elevated oil prices.The upcoming FOMC meeting is critical, as new forecasts may push the penciled-in 2026 rate cut back to 2027, which would strengthen the US dollar and weigh on GoldThe technical bias is neutral-to-bearish, with a "Death Cross" forming and price testing the critical psychological level of $5,000Most Read: The Financial Damage of War – Markets Weekly OutlookGold prices failed to capitalize on the gap higher at the start of the week with the precious metal sliding and remaining under pressure since Monday.Gold has seen its safe haven appeal overshadowed by the US dollar as rate cuts bets tumbled this week on fears over the Middle East conflicts impact on inflation. As the week progressed it became clear that any hope of a swift resolution may not be forthcoming.The closure or lack of movement through the Strait of Hormuz has kept Oil prices elevated with analysts across the board running various scenarios the longer the Strait remains closed.One of the more interesting ones comes from Bloomberg Economics who predict Oil could hit around the $160/barrel mark if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for 3 months. At 1 month they have oil prices just over $100/barrel with a 2 month closure seeing oil hit the $140/barrel mark. Source: Bloomberg Economics. These concerns have seen rate cut bets slashed for the Federal Reserve from the +-66 bps prior to the conflict to 24 bps at the time of writing, per LSEG data. Source: LSEG This has weighed heavily on Gold together with some profit taking earlier in the week likely also sharing some of the blame.The week ahead for Gold (XAU/USD) Gold will continue to be sensitive to the ever changing rate cut data as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East evolves. Things change quickly and despite all the tough man talk on both sides, a deal could materialize quickly as we have seen in the past.Such a move may have a major impact on overall sentiment and thus also impact gold prices.Rate cut data could also see significant changes after the Federal Reserve meeting when we may hear for the First time what Fed policymakers think of the Iran conflict and its implications. The Fed is currently in its blackout period and thus we have not gotten any reactions vis a vis the Iran situation.We will get new forecasts from officials as well. The December update had one rate cut penciled in for 2026. There is a clear risk it gets pushed back to 2027 in the current climate. Such a move could further weigh on Gold prices and would strengthen the US dollar.All other data releases will likely remain overshadowed by rate cut bets and geopolitical developments. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD) From a technical standpoint, Gold is currently exhibiting a bearish consolidation following a sharp correction from its early-month highs near $5420/oz and last week's highs at $5238/oz.Gold is trading within a defined horizontal range (red box) between $5,050 and $5,200. A recent break below suggests increasing selling pressure, with price now testing the critical psychological level of $5,000.However, given the overarching conditions, the break lower may prove short-lived. We saw a similar false breakout earlier this week,but to the upside.It swiftly dropped back inside the box and has grinded sideways ever since,A "Death Cross" is forming as the 50-SMA ($5,139) trends sharply toward the 100-SMA ($5,158). Price is currently pinned below both averages, confirming a bearish shift in short-term momentum.The bias remains neutral-to-bearish while below $5,130. A decisive H4 close below the $5,000 support could trigger a deeper liquidation toward the $4,840 zone.Conversely, buyers need a breakout above $5,200 to reclaim the bullish trend.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, March 13, 2026 Source: TradingView Trade Safe.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.