Equities maintain a "risk-on" rally, defying the market disconnect from elevated oil prices and rising interest rate expectations.The US market faces a pivotal week with the final Powell-led CPI report expected on Tuesday, ahead of the Fed Chair handover to Kevin Warsh on May 15.Geopolitical tensions remain high following US/Iran strikes, though a 3-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire was announced.The US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing a bearish technical breakdown, with a cooler CPI likely to lead to a move toward the 96.901 support level.Read More: Mixed feelings after the April Non-Farm Payrolls beat and Consumer Sentiment miss – Market CheckWeek in Review: Equities Defy Gravity as Oil and Rates RealignThe start of May has left market participants with more questions than answers. In a striking display of resilience or perhaps denial, US stock markets have surged to fresh highs, seemingly shrugging off the geopolitical tensions that briefly rattled indices mid-war.However, this "risk-on" euphoria sits in uncomfortable contrast with the reality of the energy market. Oil prices have refused to retreat to pre-conflict levels, and interest rate expectations are being recalibrated higher across the board.The disconnect is clear: can equities continue to climb while the cost of capital and energy remain elevated?Geopolitical developments Markets continue to hang on every word of US President Donald Trump and the ongoing situation in the Middle East. Markets are rightly on edge heading into the weekend given the tit-for-tat strikes between Iran and the US on Thursday and Friday, May 7 and 8 respectively. Any significant developments over the weekend could drive early week volatility and price action.Late on Friday, President Trump announced a 3 day ceasefire between Russia-Ukraine for the 9th, 10th and 11th of May. Source: TruthSocial Week Ahead: Central Bank Divergence and Inflation Storms Loom Large As we look toward the week starting May 10, the focus remains on geopolitical nut markets, which are also debating whether central banks will follow the market’s hawkish lead or if a reality check is overdue.This makes for interesting viewing and will likely lead to significant market movement.US: The Fed’s Final Changing of the GuardThe coming week is a momentous one for the Federal Reserve. Not only do we face critical data points, but we also mark a transition in leadership. Jerome Powell is set to conclude his tenure as Fed Chair, with Kevin Warsh scheduled to take the reins on Friday, May 15.On the data front, Tuesday’s Inflation report is the headliner. We are bracing for a second consecutive 0.9% MoM print at the headline level, largely fueled by the surge in gasoline and diesel prices. While the core reading is expected at a more modest 0.3%, the annual rate could push up to 2.7%. The Fed has recently made a concerted effort to talk up rate expectations, ditching their previous easing bias as the US economy continues to hold up better than its peers. However, with labor supply growth effectively stalled due to collapsing net migration (projected at near zero this year), the "hot" jobs numbers we’ve seen may be less a sign of strength and more a symptom of a tightening supply constraint.UK & Europe: A Strange Case of MispricingAcross the Atlantic, the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) find themselves in different boats, though markets are currently pricing them as if they are in the same storm.Markets are pricing in a significantly more hawkish path for the UK than the Eurozone—a move that looks overdone. While the UK is energy-dependent, this is not a repeat of the 2022 gas crisis; natural gas prices remain relatively contained compared to the spike in oil. We believe the ECB is actually more likely to deliver on its hawkish rhetoric in June, whereas the BoE may view "not cutting" as enough tightening for now. Watch the Euro and Sterling closely as this pricing discrepancy begins to unwind.Asia: Inflation Fallout and Trade TensionsIn Asia, the focus is squarely on the fallout from the Middle East through the lens of inflation.China: We are looking for trade data on Saturday and inflation data on Monday. Exports are expected to grow by roughly 6.5%, but the real story lies in the PPI, which is accelerating. Markets will be hyper-sensitive to how China handles the impact of higher energy costs and the lingering effects of the "Liberation Day" tariffs.India: Expect a modest rise in inflation. While gasoline prices remain capped by the government, the second-round effects of oil prices are starting to bleed into food costs, which could test the Reserve Bank of India’s patience. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Week - US Dollar Index (DXY) The US Dollar Index (DXY) finds itself in a precarious position as we head into a pivotal week. Between the transition in Fed leadership and a looming inflation print, the technicals are flashing signs of exhaustion, suggesting the "Dollar King" crown might be slipping.On the daily timeframe, the indexes break below its ascending channel, signaling a shift in momentum remains intact.We are currently seeing the DXY trade below key Moving Averages:The 50-day MA (Yellow) at 98.459 and the 200-day MA (Purple) at 98.538 have converged, effectively acting as a "ceiling" for recent price action.The fact that price is struggling to reclaim these MAs suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the downside in the near term.Support Watch: The immediate floor sits at 97.702. A daily close below this level would confirm the Double Top and likely open the trapdoor for a deeper correction toward the 96.901 handle.Scenarios for the Week AheadGiven the fundamental backdrop of the final Powell-led CPI print and the handover to Kevin Warsh, I see two primary technical paths:Scenario 1: The Bearish Confirmation (High Probability)If Tuesday’s US CPI data comes in cooler than expected—or even just meets estimates—the DXY is likely to break the 97.702 support. This would confirm the Daily Double Top and trigger a move toward 96.901. In this scenario, the convergence of the 50 and 200 SMAs on the daily will remain the ultimate barrier, cementing a medium-term bearish outlook.Scenario 2: The "Sticky Inflation" Spike (Low Probability)Should we get a significant beat in inflation (above the 0.9% MoM forecast), we could see a knee-jerk spike in the Dollar. The bulls would need to reclaim and hold above 98.729 on a daily closing basis to invalidate the bearish setup. However, even with a spike, the psychological resistance at 100.00 remains a massive hurdle that would likely attract heavy selling.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, May 8, 2026 Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) The market is currently betting on a "perfect landing" where growth stays firm despite rising rates. However, with the energy channel remaining hot and central banks diverging, the margin for error is becoming razor-thin. Stay disciplined and watch those support levels.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Copper futures rose above USD 6.29 per pound, nearing record highs, supported by expectations of long-term demand from artificial intelligence, power grids, clean energy and electrification.Supply concerns are increasing due to disruptions in sulfuric acid availability, China’s export ban and weaker copper production in Chile, which fell by around 6% year on year in Q1 2026.The Democratic Republic of Congo could strengthen its role in the global copper market through a major China-backed mining project that may produce 200,000–500,000 tonnes of copper per year. Copper futures prices rose above USD 6.29 per pound, approaching the record levels seen at the end of January. The increase is driven by a combination of two factors: expectations of long-term demand growth and mounting concerns about disruptions in production and supply. Copper, as a metal essential to energy, industry, infrastructure and new technologies, remains one of the most important commodities in the global economic transformation. Demand supported by Artificial Intelligence, energy and industrial transformationInvestors assume that demand for copper will continue to grow for many years. Key sources of demand are expected to include investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, modernization of power grids and the development of clean energy. The metal is essential in cables, installations, data centers, transmission systems, electric vehicles and many technologies linked to the electrification of the economy.Lower energy prices have provided additional support for the market, easing concerns about the condition of the global economy and demand for industrial metals. As a result, copper has gained importance as a commodity that connects investors’ short-term expectations with long-term technological and infrastructure trends. Copper futures on COMEX, daily timeframe, source: TradingView Sulfuric acid problems increase supply-side riskThe rise in copper prices is being driven not only by strong demand prospects, but also by concerns over the availability of raw materials needed for its processing. Particular market attention is focused on sulfuric acid, which is used in the copper refining process. The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted supplies of this component, while China has introduced an export ban from May until at least December.Beijing’s decision could reduce the global seaborne sulfuric acid market by around 3 million tonnes. Chile, Indonesia and India are the most exposed to the effects of these restrictions. The significance of the problem is highlighted by the situation in Chile, where copper production fell by around 6% year on year in the first quarter of 2026. Restrictions on access to sulfuric acid could therefore further hamper efforts to increase refined copper supply at a time when the market expects rising demand.Congo could strengthen its position in the global copper marketAgainst the backdrop of growing supply tensions, the Democratic Republic of Congo is gaining increasing importance. Chinese state-owned company China Railway Group Ltd., known as CREC, plans to develop one of the potentially largest copper projects in the world there. Company representatives met with Congo’s Minister of Mines, Louis Watum, to discuss the investment, which is being carried out in cooperation with a CREC subsidiary and Congolese state-owned diamond company MIBA.The planned mine would be located in Kasai-Oriental province, outside the traditional copper-mining region of Katanga. Its target output could range from 200,000 to 500,000 tonnes of copper per year. This scale would make the project one of the more significant mining ventures in the global copper market.Chinese investment has strategic significanceThe project in Congo has not only economic but also geopolitical significance. President Félix Tshisekedi is expected to support the rapid launch of the investment, which could further strengthen the country’s position as the world’s second-largest copper supplier after Chile. Copper production in Congo has more than tripled over the past decade, and Chinese companies currently account for the majority of the country’s output.The development of a new mine would demonstrate the further strengthening of China’s influence in Africa’s raw materials sector. At the same time, the United States is trying to increase its presence in Congolese mining, indicating that access to copper is becoming an increasingly important element of global economic competition. This commodity is crucial for energy, electromobility, industry and infrastructure, which is why control over its sources is gaining strategic importance. Copper price outlook remains positiveThe current situation in the copper market combines strong demand fundamentals with growing supply-side uncertainty. On the one hand, the development of artificial intelligence, power grids, electromobility and clean energy could support demand for the metal for many years. On the other hand, disruptions in sulfuric acid supplies, falling production in Chile and competition for new sources of raw material are increasing the risk of supply constraints.Under these conditions, upward pressure on copper prices may persist. The planned investment in the Democratic Republic of Congo shows that the largest economies and commodity companies are preparing for a long-term increase in the importance of this metal. Copper remains one of the key raw materials of the future, and its market is increasingly reflecting both the pace of technological transformation and geopolitical competition for access to strategic resources. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Silver and Gold are hesitant, but forming a basis for a longer-term restart of their bull-trendsAfter failing to extend lower, sellers are now exhausting their capacities, but breakouts will be requiredIntraday timeframe analysis for XAG/USD and XAU/USD Metals have been trading in confusion since the beginning of the war, with particular inflation and price action dynamics adding to the doubts.In recent trading, the Oil to Gold inverted relationship has somewhat abated and this forms the path to newer narratives for the precious commodities Market. Gold vs WTI Crude Inverse Correlation – Source: TradingView. May 8, 2026 While the price action has remained mostly sideways, a few metals have begun to reject their selling attempts, providing proof that the general bear trend is exhausting.The best example is seen in Copper, breaking its War highs throughout this week (Check out our latest analysis), but also Silver, bouncing back close to 10% off of its 2026 year-beginning prices.Weekly momentum are showing some strong signs, as can be seen with the Gold weekly chart. The RSI has completely stopped its downward trajectory, supported by the huge weekly hammer, and is now looking to confirm its rise – It wouldn't be surprising to see strong action in the asset class in coming weeks. Gold (XAU/USD) Weekly Chart, May 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView Let's explore the recent shifts in an intraday timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to identify where are the key levels to watch for breakouts. Read More:Tech continues to pull Stock Markets higher, S&P 500 at 7,400 – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday LevelsMixed feelings after the April Non-Farm Payrolls beat and Consumer Sentiment miss – Market CheckChart alert: Nasdaq 100 bulls still in control above 28,280 key support amid US-Iran tensionsGold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart and levels Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, May 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView Gold has officially broken out of its descending channel formed since April 17.While the picture is still quite rangy ($4,500 to $4,900), the recent breakout attempt pulled back to the 4H 200-period MA ($4,663) before bouncing higher, helping for chances of a break-retest pattern at the mid-range pivot.To confirm on the intraday, look for a break above $4,760; the action gets especially more bullish above $4,900.Intraday Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):Resistance Levels:$4,850 to $4,900 Major Resistance (bullish above)$5,100 Pivotal Resistance$5,400 mini-resistanceSupport Levels:4H 200-period MA ($4,663)December 2025 Support $4,500 to $4,550 (bearish below)Pivotal Support $4,325 – $4,400Main Channel Lows Support $4,100Next Support $3,880 to $4,000Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart and levels Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart, May 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView Silver might have gotten slightly ahead of itself, pushing way above its key moving averages, towards $82 highs before forming a short-term double top.In the event of a retracement from here, bulls will want to see a stall around the $77 to $78 pivot in order to form better chances of a push to new highs.Breaking $84 puts the odds for a longer run bull trend back in shape.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):Resistance Levels:Pivot highs $80 - $81.50$84 Major levelKey Range Resistance $90 to $92$96.47 March highs (higher odds of All-time highs if break above)Current Record $121.67Support Levels:Pivot lows $77 - $78Micro support $74 - $76$70 - $71.50 April Support (Bearish below)December FOMC Minor Support $64 to $66$61.10 Past Session lows$50 to $55 October Resistance now Major SupportSilver's 2011 All-time highs $49.81 Safe Trades and a blessed weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Nasdaq 100 remains in a bullish structure despite short-term volatility driven by US–Iran geopolitical tensions and profit-taking, with price action stabilising above key support at 28,280.Market sentiment was briefly pressured by conflict-related headlines, but losses were largely recovered as ceasefire stability expectations improved and risk appetite returned.Market breadth is healthy but not euphoric, with broad participation across components and technical indicators supporting near-term upside continuation. This is a follow-up analysis on the prior report, “Nasdaq 100: AI bubble fears overblown, bullish trend intact above 26,760 key intraday support”, published on 29 April 2026.The US stock market saw profit-taking on Thursday, 7 May 2026, as traders grew increasingly concerned over the fragility of the month-long US-Iran ceasefire after both sides exchanged fire.Market sentiment was further unsettled by uncertainty surrounding Washington’s latest proposal to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has yet to respond to.The leading Nasdaq 100 dropped by 1.3% intraday from its all-time intraday high of 28,825, but trimmed its losses to end Thursday’s US session with a marginal loss of only 0.1% and underperformed against other US stock indices; S&P 500 (-0.4%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.6%), and small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.6%).In today's (Friday, 8 May 2026), the Nasdaq 100 E-min futures recovered by 0.5% at this time of writing and almost recovered Thursday’s US session losses, reinforced by US President Trump's remarks that stated the ceasefire agreement “remains intact”.Aside from this piece of “Trump’s positive news flow”, several technical elements are also advocating for another potential round of fresh short-term bullish impulsive up move sequence for the Nasdaq 100.Let’s decipher them.Nasdaq 100’s market breadth remains healthy, not euphoric Fig. 1: Nasdaq 100 component stocks above 20-day, 50-day & 200-day moving averages as of 7 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Even though in the past four weeks, the performance of the Nasdaq 100 has been primarily driven by several AI-related semiconductors and chip stocks such as Intel (+111%), SanDisk (+87%), and Advanced Micro Devices (+87%), the percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above their respective 20-day and 50-day moving averages is steady at 61% and 59%, not yet at euphoric levels of 80%-90%.In addition, the percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above the key 200-day moving averages has increased steadily from 47% on 15 April 2026 to 57% as of Thursday, 7 May 2026 (below euphoric levels of 80%-90%), which indicates that a broader set of Nasdaq 100 is taking part in this ongoing rally since the end of March 2026 (see Fig. 1).Let's now focus on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures).Nasdaq 100 – Looking to break above 28,890 with bullish momentum Fig. 2: US Nasdaq 100 CFD index minor trend as of 8 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Trend bias: Bullish above 28,280 short-term pivotal support within an uptrend phase (see Fig. 2).Resistances: 28,860/890, 29,150, and 29,505/615Next supports: 27,850, 27,540, and 27,255Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on the Nasdaq 100 Price actions continue to oscillate within a medium-term ascending channel from the 31 March 2026 low.Current price actions of the Nasdaq 100 CFD index are trading at the upper half of the ascending channel, with the upper boundary of the channel coming in at around 29,505.The hourly MACD trend indicator has just flashed out a bullish crossover condition above its centreline. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways GBP/USD remains supported despite renewed US-Iran tensions, with traders now closely focused on upcoming US labour market data and University of Michigan consumer sentiment figures that could drive near-term volatility in the pair.Intermarket dynamics favour further upside for sterling, as the UK-US implied interest rate spread has steepened significantly, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England may stay relatively more hawkish than the Federal Reserve.Technical indicators suggest a potential bullish reversal is underway, with GBP/USD rebounding from its ascending channel support, holding above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, while momentum indicators point to strengthening upside momentum above the 1.3530 support zone. After the sterling hit a 2-month high of 1.3658 on 1 May 2026 against the US dollar, the GBP/USD has traded sideways, and on Thursday, 7 May 2026, it declined by 0.2% to print an intraday low of 1.1723 on the backdrop of an uptick in US-Iran tension after both sides exchanged fire.In addition to the latest developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict, where markets are awaiting Iran’s response to Washington’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, traders will also be closely watching several key US economic releases today that may influence the short-term direction of GBP/USD.These include the April non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data at 8:30 pm SGT, followed by the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment report for May at 10:00 pm SGT.Interestingly, intermarket and technical factors are now supporting a potential bullish reversal in the GBP/USD at this juncture.Let’s unpack in greater detail.The UK/US implied interest rate policy curve spread has steepened Fig. 1: UK-US implied interest rate policy curve spread as of 7 May 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). Interest rate futures markets indicate that the Bank of England (BoE) will likely hike in July after being on hold at 3.75% since December 2025.The current Eurozone/US implied interest rate policy curve spread for the period from June 2026 to September 2026 has steepened significantly.In addition, the curve has also shifted upwards, with the current September 2026 reading standing at 0.66% compared to 0.16% three months ago (see Fig. 1).These observations suggest that the BoE is likely to be less dovish or more hawkish than the Fed, which in turn could provide support for a potentially firmer GBP/USD.The monthly implied future monetary policy interest rate curves for the UK and the US are calculated using short-term interest rate futures that are highly sensitive to the expectations on these countries’ central banks' respective monetary policies.Let’s focus now on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the GBP/USD from a technical analysis perspective.GBP/USD – Holding above 1.3530, watch the 1.3640/3665 range resistance next Fig. 2: GBP/USD minor trend as of 8 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Trend bias: Bullish above 1.3530 short-term pivotal support within an uptrend phase (see Fig. 2).Resistances: 1.3590, 1.3640/3665 (upside trigger), and 1.3730Next supports: 1.3490 and 1.3450Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on GBP/USD Price actions have managed to stage a rebound after a retest on the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from the 6 April 2026 low.Price actions continue to trade above their 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which support an ongoing medium-term uptrend phase.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has just exited from its oversold region (below the 30 level) in today’s Asian session (Friday, 8 May 2026). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for May 7 Markets jumped to new highs early this morning as investors felt hopeful about diplomatic progress. But by midday, those gains disappeared. It became clear that risk assets had risen too quickly, and overall sentiment turned negative.Tensions in the Gulf quickly returned, pulling markets back down. Optimism faded after reports that Iran had fired missiles at US Navy destroyers, apparently in response to US strikes on Iranian tankers. Iranian state TV also reported anti-aircraft activity and explosions over Tehran, adding more uncertainty to the trading floor.Confusion about the blockade added to the day’s volatility. A US official told Al Jazeera that reports about the US military preparing to restart “Operation Freedom,” the mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force, were completely false. These conflicting stories made WTI crude oil prices swing wildly, eventually pulling them back down toward $95.Stocks could not hold up after the reversal. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached impressive new intraday highs at 7,385 and 28,850 but lost momentum and ended the day lower. The Dow Jones also dropped more than 300 points, falling below the 50,000 mark by the close.With the peace rally over and geopolitical tensions rising again, tomorrow’s important Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report could be a major turning point for Wall Street as investors look for direction. Read More:Have Stock Markets met their top? – Pre-FOMC Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 LevelsCrude Oil on path to $90 as the peace trade continues – WTI Technical analysisChart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) rally faces roadblock at 20-day and 50-day moving averagesKey Earnings releases tomorrow (May 7) Earnings release for May 7, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, May 7, 2026 – Source: TradingView Global assets took a huge turn around the middle of the session with WTI Crude largely reversing from its huge drop to $90 – Spot the turn around 10:30.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, May 7, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs FX is back into a large confusion after today's US Dollar reversal along with Crude Oil.The King Dollar is back on the top of the FX board at the end of the session, with the DXY back above 98.00 and exploding after forming a triple bottom.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tomorrow welcomes the infamous NFP session along with Canadian Employment.This will come along with many other smaller tier data releases but the 8:30 A.M ET release will be the largest mover of the session (barring some fundamental news regarding the Iran conflict).As always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks exploded to new record highs just this morning, but the action has found a brutal stopOptimism regarding the peace process could have found its peak, with traders getting ready for tomorrow's Non-Farm Payrolls reportExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US stock benchmarks exploded to fresh record highs just this morning, but the historic price action has hit a brick wall.In a frantic early-session rally, the S&P 500 reached the borderline insane 7,400 mark, the Nasdaq stalled right ahead of the 29,000 milestone, and the Dow Jones just grazed the psychological 50,000 level before failing to withstand the momentum. Approaching these monumental technical milestones, the market clearly got ahead of itself, triggering a sharp and immediate intraday reversal.The overarching optimism regarding the US-Iran peace process appears to have found its peak and this isn't just due to randomness. Daily Market Performance (11:53). May 4, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Traders are aggressively backing off from extreme bullishness as they prepare for tomorrow's highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls report. Compounding this macroeconomic hesitation are creeping doubts regarding Operation Freedom and its ultimate objectives to secure free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Uncertainty is back to cast a dark shadow over quite-ecstatic equities; with recent reports indicating that Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are officially lifting restrictions on the use of US military bases, the market is sensing a turn in the narrative, fearing potential military preparations rather than purely diplomatic solutions.Crude Oil prices are rallying quite aggressively from here, proof that anxiety is making a swift return to haunt trader sentiment.A post-NFP response will be key to watch for traders and investors, but in the meantime, the recent euphoria from the peace process is rapidly turning into a painful hangover. As we navigate this sudden risk-off shift, let's get ready for tomorrow's NFP data. Dive into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:Crude Oil on path to $90 as the peace trade continues – WTI Technical analysisChart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) rally faces roadblock at 20-day and 50-day moving averagesCopper attempts to break its mid-April $6.10 spike – On the way to new ATH? XCU/USD OutlookCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (15:17) – Source: TradingView – May 7, 2026 The Market has officially been split, with close to 80% of Stocks trading lower but the heavy weights still doing the heavy lifting.Only Nvidia, Microsoft and the Technology Services sub-sector are fighting the wave of profit-taking gripping Equities in today's action.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – May 7, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones took a sudden turn to the downside, remaining the only Index which failed to breach its early 2026 and actually formed a double top in that process.Often late to the party, the Index does provide a more "realistic" view of current clouds seen in the Macro environment – For example, this was seen after September 2025, where the Index only reached new records as clouds regarding the US Economy dissipated.Turning back to today, as long as the action remains above 49,000, a more rangebound picture is drawing.However, breaking the support opens the way for large downside, with Key supports only found at psychological milestones.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels50,165 morning highs49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 HighsATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500All-Time Highs 50,544Support LevelsApril 14 Gap Fill Pivot 49,500Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (short-term bearish below)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (mid-term bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – May 7, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq exploded to new record highs with no one to stop it on its rampage, until the Index stopped itself.Stalling at a key 161.8% fibonacci target (28,850 to 29,000) led to a significant 400-point rejection, the first one since April 29.The action for the index for now stays extremely bullish, but breaking the trendline (28,360) could see a larger corrective phase (27,000 seems like a decent target for now – expect a much larger correction below).Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels28,500 psychological resistance28,850 - 29,000 Current ATH ResistanceSupport Levels28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)27,500 micro-supportMomentum Pivot at 27,000 (4H 50-period MA)Mini-support 26,600 to 26,750Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300S&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – May 7, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 has also met its key fibonacci extensions right below 7,400, and losing its extremely bullish momentum aggressively since.Closing the session below 7,350 opens the door to 7,300, a level that should see equilibrium until the 8:30 A.M. NFP release.A break below 7,230 opens the door for larger downside.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels7,350 Minor Resistance7,390 - 7,400 Channel extension resistance (morning highs)Support LevelsMomentum Pivot 7,250 to 7,260 Channel lows 7,230 (bearish below)7,100 psychological levelPrior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the curve, with the tone increasingly worsening.Safe Trades and May the 4th be with you!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

WTI Oil took a significant hit throughout yesterday's session as Axios revealed a more US-Iran deal under construction, and these flows are extending in today's sessionConfirming its price action below $100, sellers are attempting a push towards $90. Will momentum be enough to break the key level?Exploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity WTI Crude Oil dropped sharply yesterday after Axios reported that the US and Iran are working on a broad peace deal. The strong selling pressure is continuing into today.After falling 8% yesterday, WTI is down another 5% today. Sellers are clearly getting in control of the market.For months, prices rose steadily due to geopolitical tensions. Now, the trend has quickly shifted to a clear downward move. Now that prices have dropped below the key $100 level, the pressure is falling, and sellers are pushing toward $90. The main question is whether this momentum will break that important support, as momentum becomes slightly oversold and Participants will look to confirm the latest narratives. Peace Deal odds for June 30 – Source: Polymarket The prediction-market odds US-Iran peace deal by June 30 are currently around 55% after remaining around 30% for a while – A peace deal by May 31 is quite optimistic, but the odds are also rising above 40%.Traders are selling oil mainly because negotiations are moving toward an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as confirmed by a report from Al Arabiya . Allowing normal shipping through this key route is a major reason for the drop in oil prices. But for oil to fall another $20 and for gas prices to drop for consumers, a formal deal still needs to be signed.This possible peace will need to be confirmed during the coming weeks of diplomatic talks, which recent statements have hinted at – With the much anticipated Trump-Xi meeting taking place next week, this could be an important date for the Oil Market.Now, let's take a closer look at the technical analysis for WTI Crude to see if sellers can push prices below the $90 support level. Read More:Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) rally faces roadblock at 20-day and 50-day moving averagesAsia open: Stock markets rally on US-Iran peace hopes; tech drives S&P 500 to record highsCopper attempts to break its mid-April $6.10 spike – On the way to new ATH? XCU/USD OutlookUS Oil Intraday Timeframe AnalysisWTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels WTI Oil 4H Chart – May 7, 2026. Source: TradingView WTI has officially formed a decent looking top, with a lower high throughout the past week leading to the ongoing tumble, down 19% since its April 29 top.Now breaking the key $93 Pivot zone with momentum, establishing below this area will be essential to confirm more downside ahead.Higher timeframe traders will want to see a break and close below $90 to confirm.WTI Technical Levels:Resistance LevelsMomentum Support now pivot $93 - $95 (breaking)$98 to $100 Pivotal Resistance$104 next-mini resistance (morning highs!)2022 and Monday highs $117 to $120 (larger channel top)Support Levels$90 Psychological level and past session's lows$87 to $90 mini-Support$82 Friday 17 lows2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $801H Chart and action levels WTI Oil 1H Chart – May 7, 2026. Source: TradingView Swing trading such erratic Markets remain a fantasy, hence it could always be wiser to capture quick moves and re-assess with the news.The action is currently oversold on most shorter timeframes, a reason why the selloff has somewhat stalled in the last hour. But Traders should still look at these elements:As long as the price action remains below $94.00, bears remain in control.Watch out for minor upside consolidation around here; if the action stays stuck below the level, this adds to odds of a downside break.The selloff should accelerate if heavy volume sales occur below $90.Breaking back above $95 would hint at more rangebound or rallying action ahead (all the way to $103)Safe Trades and Keep your eyes on the news!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Global risk appetite surged on US–Iran peace hopes: Reports of a potential peace memorandum between the US and Iran drove a sharp rally in global equities and a steep decline in oil prices, easing inflation concerns and boosting sentiment across risk assets.Tech and semiconductors powered record equity highs: The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and several Asian indices hit fresh record highs, led by strong momentum in semiconductor stocks after upbeat earnings and AI-related partnership developments involving Intel and AMD.USD weakened while gold and JPY gained: The US dollar fell broadly as geopolitical risk premiums eased, triggering a 3%+ surge in gold above $4,700 and renewed strength in the Japanese yen amid suspected intervention and bearish technical signals on USD/JPY.Chart of the day: USD/JPY has further potential downside pressure below 157.30/157.55 key short-term resistance. Next intermediate supports at 154.65 and 154.05.Top macro headlines US-Iran peace deal hopes: Oil prices slumped and global stocks surged following news that the U.S. and Iran are nearing a memorandum to end the conflict, with the US concluding offensive operations.US equities hit record highs: Bloomberg data highlights the S&P 500 closing at a record 7,259.22. The rally was heavily driven by the semiconductor sector, with Intel jumping 13% on Apple partnership reports and AMD soaring 16.5% after hours.Gold spikes past $4,700: Spot gold climbed over 3% to $4,703/oz, hitting a multi-week high as the prospect of peace dragged down the US Dollar and shifted safe-haven dynamics.Yen volatility persists: JPY rallied 1.8% to around 155.00 per USD on Wednesday, 8 May, Asian session on suspected “stealth intervention”.US ADP Employment beats expectations: Private payrolls increased by 109,000 in April, surpassing the forecast of 99,000, signaling continued labor market tightness that complicates the Fed's easing path.Key macro themes Geopolitical de-escalation & energy Relief: The potential resolution of the Middle East conflict is rapidly pulling the extreme risk premium out of the energy markets. WTI crude falling back toward $100/bbl provides immediate relief to global inflation expectations.The AI semiconductor supercycle: The tech sector continues to decouple from broader macro anxieties. Exceptional earnings beats and strategic partnerships (like Intel/Apple) are reinforcing semiconductors as the primary growth engine for global equities.Dollar weakness and gold reallocation: The sudden drop in the US Dollar (spurred by peace hopes), has triggered an intraday massive capital rotation into gold, which surged around 3% as a preferred alternative asset.Global markets impact (last 24 hours) Equities: The S&P 500 (+1.5% to 7,365), Nasdaq 100 (+2.1% to 28,599), and Russell 2000 (+1.5% to 2,886) closed at record highs.DJIA (+1.2% to 49,910) lagged. In Europe, the DAX surged 2.1% to 24,918.Fixed Income: The US 30-year Treasury yield fell back below 5% (to 4.98%) as investors locked in rates. The 10-year yield remains anchored at 4.4%.FX: The US Dollar weakened broadly on the US-Iran peace news. The AUD/USD climbed to 0.7238, closing in on a 4-year high on upbeat risk appetite.Commodities: WTI Crude slumped toward $90,50/bbl on the US-Iran developments. Spot Gold spiked 3.2% to $4,703/oz, its highest since late April.Asia Pacific impact Stock markets: An overnight 4.5% jump in the US SOX semiconductor index sets up a positive feedback loop back into key Asian stock markets. Nikkei 225 (+5.4% to 62,720 to hit a fresh all-time high), KOSPI (+0.2% to propel towards a new record high of 7,400), Hang Seng Index (+1.3% to 26,564), China A50 (+0.2% to 15,850 to hit a 52-month high), and STI (+0.3% to 4,944) at this time of writing.Currencies: The Australian Dollar (AUD) outperformed all regional peers following the rally seen in global stock markets. The Japanese Yen (JPY) has managed to find a floor at around 157.30/157.55 per USD on fears of further intervention,Economic Outlook: The region is expected to benefit significantly from declining energy import costs. If the Middle East peace deal is implemented, it will provide a significant economic boost for major oil importers such as Japan and South Korea.Top 2 events to watch today US Initial Jobless Claims - 8.30 pm SGT: (consensus: 205K, previous week: 189K) Impact: USD, US stock indices, Short-end US TreasuriesEurozone Retail Sales - 5.00 pm SGT: (consensus: -0.3% m/m, Feb: -0.2% m/m) Impact: EUR crosses, DAXOngoing US-Iran Peace Memorandum Developments Impact: All asset classesChart of the day - USD/JPY further downside pressure below 157.30/157.55 Fig. 1: USD/JPY minor trend as of 7 May 2026 (Source: TradingView) The USD/JPY has staged a bearish breakdown below its minor “Ascending Wedge” configuration on Wednesday, 6 May 2026. In addition, in today’s opening Asian session (Thursday, 7 May 2026), its hourly RSI momentum indicator has flashed a bearish momentum condition below the 50 level.These observations suggest the minor downtrend phase of the USD/JPY remains intact. Watch the 157.30/157.55 key short-term pivotal resistance for another potential down leg to expose the next intermediate supports at 154.65 and 154.05 (also the key 200-day moving average) (see Fig 1).However, a clearance and an hourly close above 157.55 negates the bearish tone for a rebound towards the next intermediate resistances at 158.10 and 158.60 (the intersection of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for May 6 Today’s sharp market moves confirmed again that when President Trump changes his geopolitical stance, Wall Street doesn't react with half conviction. The ongoing peace rally has been impressive: Even with many ups and downs and conflicting stories since the ceasefire began about a month ago, equity bulls have stayed steady.The trading session opened with strong activity. WTI Crude Oil dropped 8% after Axios reported a new, sustainable path toward a US-Iran peace deal. Throughout the day, no official statements challenged this positive outlook, so risk-on sentiment continued to build.As the market closed, risk assets did not stall their rally a single minute. The Dow Jones reached the 50,000 mark just before the close, for the first time since February 12, and the Nasdaq rose by nearly 2%. Gains also appeared in alternative assets, with precious metals rising and altcoins seeing renewed activity, while Bitcoin and Ethereum stayed mostly flat.As highlighted in our mid-week update, with even Israel reportedly surprised by the rapid development of this deal, market participants are taking this diplomatic advancement very seriously. While President Trump announced a one-week deadline for finalizing the agreement on Fox News, most institutional traders expect that no deal will be signed before Trump meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping at their summit on May 14 and 15. Read More:Copper attempts to break its mid-April $6.10 spike – On the way to new ATH? XCU/USD OutlookStocks explode higher; The peace deal is seemingly near – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday OutlookConflicting peace narratives ahead of April labor data – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateBitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Why a close above $82,133 Is needed to resume the bull runKey Earnings releases tomorrow (May 7) Earnings release for May 7, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, May 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today's Crude Oil drop was a celebration for all types of assets around Markets, a trend that has persisted throughout the entire conflict.Expect to see this Oil-Market inverted correlation especially more in coming days and weeks.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, May 6, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs FX traders are finally seeing long awaited momentum and movement in Markets that remained more than muted since early April.The US Dollar naturally led the way down along with the Loonie as Crude Oil dragged the two North American currencies lower, profiting particularly well to APAC monies, which are most affected by the Hormuz situation.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The end-week trading is slowly coming closer and participants are getting ready for some high-tier data releases.There will be some movement for the AUD (Trade Balance) and JPY (BoJ Minutes) during the evening session, and this will be followed with a high importance Retail Sales report in Europe.For the North American session, make sure to track what the Fed Speakers have to say about the ongoing conflict and its effect on inflation.As always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks are back on the bullish routes as Axios reveals a US-Iran deal shaping upUp 1% across the board, Stock Markets are back in ecstasy, and nothing seems to be stopping the rallyExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US Stock Benchmarks are aggressively back on the bullish route today, energized by breaking reports from Axios revealing that a definitive US-Iran peace deal is finally shaping up.The overnight collapse in crude oil—now plunging roughly 8% on the session—is officially being confirmed by a much softer, highly optimistic geopolitical narrative. Peace Deal odds are rebounding – Source: Polymarket (12:02) Traders are actively preparing for a formalized peace agreement. With reports indicating that even Israel was caught off guard by the rapid pace of these recent diplomatic developments, this could truly be the fundamental confirmation that institutional investors have been praying for since the initial ceasefire was implemented.US stock markets have risen about 1% across the board in the morning session, helped by recent geopolitical relief and Dow Jones is now coming quite close to the 50,000 level for the first time since early February. Daily Market Performance (11:58). May 6, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Wall Street is very optimistic, and the rally continues as investors look ahead to Friday's important Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report.Furthermore, with the highly anticipated summit between President Trump and China's Xi Jinping rapidly approaching, traders are growing increasingly optimistic. The sheer gravitational pull of this upcoming superpower meeting is keeping markets buoyant, allowing them to completely shrug off the sporadic, early-week Iranian strikes on Gulf nations.Market participants are now aggressively positioning for a pursued, sustained breakout across all major US indexes. However, to keep this historic momentum alive, bulls will need concrete fundamental confirmation from the upcoming macroeconomic train: Friday’s NFP report, followed immediately by crucial CPI and PPI inflation data next Wednesday. Let's dive into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Why a close above $82,133 Is needed to resume the bull runConflicting peace narratives ahead of April labor data – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateChart alert: China A50 bullish breakout above 6-month resistanceCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (12:08) – Source: TradingView – May 6, 2026 The market rally is quite explosive, particularly among the highest beta sectors including the ever-so-strong Semiconductors and Tech in general, with Consumer services also marking a huge return after suffering since the beginning of the year.Naturally, Energy and defensive sectors are struggling from the latest narrative, but all of this is pointing to a broad-Index buying with a few local plays in Semis.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – May 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA is extending to a +1% rise which retested 50,000 yet again without being able to breach the key level.Per candle action is undeniably bullish, with tight bull channels breaching the 4H 50-period MA but looking out to the bigger picture, the price action will have to clearly break above the past week highs to avoid a double top.Breaking 50,000 and closing above confirms the rally to new all-time highs.Rejecting here however would maintain the 1,000 point range, with more bearish potential if the narrative sours.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 Highs (testing, double top?)ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500All-Time Highs 50,544Support LevelsMajor Pivotal support and range lows – 49,000 to 49,100 (short-term bearish below)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (mid-term bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – May 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView Even with an overbought RSI, Nasdaq is ruthlessly bouncing to new highs, smashing daily beyond its previous session's record.Reaching the 28,500 level brought with it some profit-taking, but late-trend buyers are bringing the action back to the daily highs.A push beyond the session highs will test the 28,700 peace bull channel lower bound – Watch for reactions around there.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels28,500 psychological resistance (morning highs)28,700 mini-resistance at channel lower bounds29,000 potential resistance 2Support Levels28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)27,500 micro-supportPivotal Support at 27,000 (4H 50-period MA)Mini-support 26,600 to 26,750Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300War Support 25,000 to 25,250Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – May 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is also bullying through new record highs, currently testing its key psyhcological levels in a continuous price discovery.Except if the narrative changes, nothing should be barring the road to 7,400.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels7,350 session highs 7,400 Channel extension potential resistanceSupport LevelsKey support Zone 7,180 - 7,200 (4H 50-period MA)7,100 psychological levelPrior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the curve, with the tone increasingly worsening.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin remains decidedly bullish, holding firm above the key $80,000 psychological support level.The price is in a corrective phase after peaking near $82,800 and is currently testing short-term support levels.A close above $82,133 is needed to immediately resume bullish momentum toward the $85,000 objective.Most Read: Conflicting peace narratives ahead of April labor data – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateBitcoin continues its impressive ascent, hitting fresh highs near the 82800 mark before finding some temporary friction. The overall structure across multiple timeframes remains decidedly bullish, characterized by higher highs and higher lows, supported by key moving averages.H4 Chart: The Macro View The 4-hour chart highlights a strong breakout above the significant psychological level of 80000. This level, which previously acted as a hurdle, has now transitioned into a foundational support zone.The price is currently trading well above the 50, 100, and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs), confirming the strength of the medium-term trend.While the RSI (Relative Strength Index) shows a "Bear" divergence tag near the recent peak, this often signals a period of consolidation or a shallow pullback rather than a full reversal in such a strong trending market.The next major objective for bulls on this timeframe remains the 85000 handle.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, May 6, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) H1 Chart: Assessing the Pullback Dropping down to the 1-hour chart, we see the recent price action in more detail. After peaking just shy of 83000, Bitcoin has entered a corrective phase. It is currently testing the 50-MA (blue line) near 81000.The 82133 level (purple line) has switched to immediate resistance.For the bullish momentum to resume immediately, we would want to see an hourly candle close back above 82133. Failure to do so might see a deeper retest of the 80000 breakout point, which aligns closely with the ascending trendline support.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) One-Hour Chart, May 6, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) M30 Chart: Intraday Dynamics and Trade Opportunities The 30-minute chart reveals a more aggressive corrective slope. The price has pierced below the 50-MA and is currently hovering around the 81400 area.Potential Trade Opportunities:The Trendline Retest (Long): Aggressive buyers may look for long entries if the price touches the primary ascending trendline (currently intersecting near 80,000 - 80400). A bullish reversal candle (like a hammer or engulfing pattern) at this junction would offer a high-probability entry with a stop-loss potentially just below the trendline.The Breakout Re-entry (Long): For more conservative traders, a break and hold back above the 82133 level would signal that the minor correction is over. A long position on a successful retest of 82133 targets the 82800 recent high and 84000 beyond.Short-term Scalp (Short): Only for the nimble, a sustained move below the 50-MA on the M30 could open a path for a quick scalp toward the 100-MA (yellow line) near 80960.However, shorting into such a strong uptrend carries significant risk.Key Levels to Watch:Resistance: 82133, 82800, 85000.Support: 80960 (100-MA M30), 80000 (Psychological/Trendline), 78197.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) M30 Chart, May 6, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Bitcoin remains in a "buy the dip" environment. While the RSI indicates that the move was slightly overextended, the technical structure is intact as long as price remains above the 80000 psychological floorFollow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global MarketsMarkets continue to extend ceaselessly with Stock Market bulls unfazed by early week ceasefire disruptionsA path towards a diplomatic solution seems to be coming close, and Tech is continuing its powerful breakout along with cryptos Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.Global markets continue to extend their massive rallies ceaselessly, with stock market bulls remaining completely unfazed by early-week ceasefire disruptions. A path toward a definitive diplomatic solution in the Middle East finally seems to be coming into view, notably allowing the technology sector and cryptocurrencies to continue their powerful breakouts.Now ten weeks into the conflict, the path to the resumption of vital maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is slowly taking shape. The Iranian navy recently issued its first optimistic statement, suggesting that safe and stable transit through the strait will soon be possible as military threats recede. This acted as a geopolitical relief, which is why WTI Crude Oil finally plunged below the $100 mark after stubbornly holding above for almost two weeks, dropping sharply into the low $90 (although consequently rebounding). Nasdaq Daily Chart. April 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView However, the diplomatic road remains somewhat unclear; there is still significant back-and-forth.Iranian officials dismissed some proposed US terms as an “American wish,” and President Trump sought to temper immediate expectations for peace – A confusion that caused stocks to give up a portion of their early Wednesday pre-trading gains, keeping traders on their toes ahead of the gigantic labor market report (US NFP) coming up on Friday.Stepping back, the overarching picture is surprisingly confirming to be bullish. Stock markets have already surged between 10% and 20% from their war lows, more than erasing the entirety of their conflict-driven losses. A massive wave of record corporate earnings acted as a major upside surprise. Combined with aggressive short-covering and a highly resilient US economy that has sustained the geopolitical shock exceptionally well, market bulls found everything they needed to keep pushing equities higher.Traders are also getting prepared for next week's much anticipated Trump-Xi meeting; a boon for Market sentiment as the war situation shouldn't get much worse before the event.Meanwhile, the US Dollar’s trajectory tells the story of fading fear. After attempting a technical bounce from a recent double-bottom formation, the rapidly easing geopolitical narrative forced the reserve currency to capitulate, ultimately sinking to fresh two-month lows as the global risk-on trade dominates.The data released throughout the past week continues to show a healthy economy, between still growing PMIs and Job openings slightly beating expectations – Consumer confidence is slowly recovering despite the rising Petrol prices, as the demand side seems to slowly accept the waves of inflation; not a good sign for Monetary policymakers. Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap. Read More:Chart alert: China A50 bullish breakout above 6-month resistanceChart alert: USD/JPY bearish breakdown from “Ascending Wedge”, it smells like another interventionGBP/USD Potential Trade Setups: Two opportunities on the bullish retest and breakout playNorth-American Indices Performance North American Top Indices performance in the past 10 days – May 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView The rise in Nasdaq and US Equities is now spreading globally, with European, Asian and Canadian Markets now recovering from their routs.The TSX is still quite a laggard in recent action, with its performance somewhat dampened by a stronger Canadian dollar and local dynamics.Dollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index 4H Chart, May 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView While the US Dollar took a beating in the early Wednesday morning, just wicking a two-month lows, the price action quickly rebounded a could now be forming a triple bottom.The fact that it reacted to the upper bound of the bear channel opened the path to concrete new lows but the morning rebound is now confusing the picture.Overall, it seems that traders really will need to see clear developments to move the needle – Keep a close eye on the channel for breakouts or lack thereof.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels98.50 to 98.70 War Pivot (short-term bullish above)98.420 4H 50-period MA and Channel top99.00 4H 200-period MA99.30 to 99.50 Resistance100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highsWar Highs 100.544 (Double Top)Support Levels98.00 Major SupportSupport 97.40 to 97.60 (triple bottom)2025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors USD vs other Majors since last Monday, May 6, 2026 - Source: TradingView The USD took a large hit throughout the latter part of the past week, with Stock Markets and FX interventions from the Ministry of Japan taking turns on the Reserve currency.Looking at the large reversal during the Wednesday morning however, the story is not over for the Dollar, close to unchanged against the CAD and European currencies since last Monday.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors CAD vs other Majors, May 6, 2026 - Source: TradingView. The Canadian Dollar was a net winner throughout the past week, supported by the stronger Crude Oil prices, but Market performance is always relative.As hopes for a resolution came back strong, the Loonie lost some ground and is still easing against most majors, particularly the JPY, NZD and CHF.USD/CAD 4H Chart and Technical Levels USD/CAD 4H Chart, May 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/CAD is reaching the lows of its range in this week's action and could be subject to a large reversal if the pattern remains.In case you missed it, the pair has maintained a 4,000 pip range since the beginning of the year – Bulls will look to confirm above 1.36320 (4H 50-period MA).Levels to place on your USD/CAD charts:Resistance Levels:1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support now Pivot (4H 50-period MA)1.3720 – 1.3750 Resistance1.38 mini-Resistance +/- 150 pips1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance (range highs)Support Levels:1.3550 Main 2025 Support (Range Lows)1.35 Key Psychological Support End-January Lows 1.34820US and Canada Economic Calendar to next Wednesday US and Canadian Data towards next Wednesday, MarketPulse Economic Calendar The North American calendar will be packed in the coming sessions.Friday will welcome the high-tier Non-Farm Payrolls, where participants have been focusing on the Unemployment Rate more than the headline number itself due to new BLS adjustments – So keep your eyes on this potential large mover.Not mentioning the key speeches and appearances from Fed speakers (including Williams on Thursday afternoon), Traders will be getting ready for quintessential inflation data early next week, with the CPI (Tuesday) and PPI (Wednesday) combo release.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways China A50 shows strong resilience and leadership: The index has gained ~7% since late February 2026 and outperformed global peers during the US–Iran conflict, remaining largely stable during broader market sell-offs.Macro tailwinds and geopolitical positioning: A tariff truce and upcoming Trump–Xi meeting (14–15 May) are key catalysts, while a strengthening yuan and China’s strategic stance on energy and AI supply chains continue to support equity upside.Bullish technical breakout confirmed: The China A50 has broken above a 6-month range, with an intact ascending channel and positive momentum signals, keeping the bullish bias above 15,460 and targeting 16,100–16,340. Amid the current Middle East geopolitical tensions arising from the US-Iran war, coupled with trade and high-tech rivalry between the US and China, the China A share stock market has been resilient in the past two months.Based on the pre-war base date of 27 February 2026, till Tuesday, 5 May 2026, the China A50 benchmark stock index has managed to recover and recorded a gain of 7%, making it one of the top-performing global benchmark stock indices (see Fig. 1). Fig. 1: Global benchmark stock indices performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 5 May 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). Also, when measured from the sell-off period of 27 February 2026 to 30 March 2026, seen in global stock markets during the US-Iran war, the China A50 index was the top performer, unscathed and almost unchanged in a sea of red (see Fig. 2). Fig. 2: Global benchmark stock indices performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 30 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). After the person-to-person meet-up between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in October last year in Busan, both countries have agreed to extend a tariff truce, which eventually reduced the US tariff rate on Chinese goods to 20.9% from a high of over 100% during the onset of US-China Trade War 2.0 in April 2026.The Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing on 14-15 May will be a key risk event Trump has confirmed a second in-person meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing on 14–15 May, delayed by a month due to the US–Iran conflict. Both sides appear to be positioning for leverage ahead of what is shaping up to be a high-stakes summit.China remains heavily reliant on Iranian energy flows, even as the US seeks to constrain these supplies. At the same time, Chinese regulators have blocked Meta Platforms from acquiring advanced AI start-up Magnus, underscoring Beijing’s efforts to limit US access to strategic technologies and maintain its position in the global AI supply chain.A further strengthening of the yuan adds further upside pressure on China A50 Fig. 3: Correlation of FTSE China A50 with CNH/USD as of 6 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Fig. 4: USD/CNH medium-term trend as of 6 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Since 7 April 2026, the price movements of the FTSEW China A50 have been in a “direct lockstep” with the offshore yuan against the USD (CNH/USD). A strengthening of the CNH has created a positive feedback loop back into the FTSE China A50 (see Fig. 3).Technical analysis suggests that the medium-term downtrend of USD/CNH (in conventional quoting using USD as the base currency) remains intact.Bearish momentum has resurfaced on the USD/CNH after a test and a bearish reversal on its downward-sloping 20-day moving average on Wednesday, 6 May 2026, at this time of writing (see Fig. 4).If the 6.8880 key medium-term pivotal resistance is not surpassed to the upside, the USD/CNH may see a further decline to expose the next medium-term supports at 6.7740 and 6.7055, in turn, triggering a potential up move on the China A50.Let’s focus now on the medium-term trajectory (1 to 3 weeks) of the China A50 CFD index (a proxy of the FTSE China A50 futures) from a technical analysis perspective.China A50 – Bullish momentum above 20-day moving average Fig. 5: China A50 CFD index medium-term trend as of 6 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Trend bias: Bullish above 15,460 medium-term pivotal support (see Fig. 5).Resistances: 16,100 and 16,340 (also a Fibonacci extension)Next supports: 15,120 and 14,950 (also the intersection of the 50-day and 2000-day MAs)Key elements to support the medium-term bullish bias on China A50 Price actions have just staged a significant bullish breakout from a range-bound configuration since 28 October 2025.Recent price actions from the 7 April 2026 low of 14,406 have evolved into an ascending channel and traded above its 20-day moving average since 8 April 2026.The daily RSI momentum indicator remains in a bullish momentum condition after a rebound from a parallel pull-back support at the 63 level. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Intervention-driven downside resumes: USD/JPY plunged 2.4% to a two-month low after Japan’s ~$34.5B intervention on Thursday, 30 April, with a sharp intraday drop on today, 6 May, hinting at a possible second round of intervention.Rebound likely a dead cat bounce: The 1.5% recovery to 157.94 appears corrective within a newly formed short-term downtrend, rather than a reversal.Bearish technical breakdown confirmed: Price broke below an “ascending wedge” at 157.55, reinforcing downside bias below 157.30/55, with key supports at 155.55, 154.65, and 154.05 in focus. After the “final verbal warning” and actual FX intervention by Japanese authorities last Thursday, 30 May 2026 (Bloomberg reported that Japan spent $34.5 billion to buy up the yen), the USD/JPY plummeted by 2.4% (its worst daily loss since 20 December 2022) to hit a two-month low of 155.49 on Friday, 1 May 2026.Thereafter, the USD/JPY staged a rebound of 1.5% in the next three sessions to print an intraday high of 157.94 in today’s (Wednesday, 6 May’s start of the Asian session).The 1.5% rebound of the USD/JPY is likely a minor corrective rebound (aka dead cat bounce) within a minor downtrend phase, as the latest Japanese authorities' intervention has triggered the start of a short-term bearish trend.Technical elements also suggest the end of the three sessions of rebound, and a return of the bearish impulsive down move sequence for the USD/JPY.In today’s Asian session (Wednesday, 5 Ma) at the 12 pm SGT hour mark, the USD/JPY plummeted swiftly in a span of 15 minutes (a drop of close to 2 big figures from 157.83 to 155.80 at this time of writing). It smells like a second round of intervention.Let’s focus now on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the USD/JPY from a technical analysis perspective.USD/JPY – Bearish breakdown below “Ascending Wedge” support at 157.55 Fig. 1: USD/JPY minor trend as of 6 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Trend bias: Bearish below 157.30/55 short-term pivotal resistance (see Fig. 1).Supports: 155.55, 154.65, 154.05 (also 200-day MA), and 152.65 (also a Fibonacci extension)Next resistances: 158.10 and 158.60 (also 50-day MA)Key elements to support the near-term bearish bias on USD/JPY The rebound on the USD/JPY from its 1 May 2026 low of 155.55 has taken on the form of a bearish “Ascending Wedge” corrective configuration.Price actions have broken below the “Ascending Wedge” support at 157.55, reinforcing the start of another bearish impulsive down move sequence within its ongoing minor downtrend phase. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Risk-on rally driven by easing geopolitics: Cooling US–Iran tensions and lower oil prices have reduced risk premiums, lifting global equities to record highs—led by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.AI-led earnings momentum remains dominant: Strong corporate earnings revisions, particularly from mega-cap tech and semiconductor players, continue to fuel the equity rally, underpinned by the ongoing AI infrastructure investment cycle.Broad cross-asset impact supports risk sentiment: A softer US dollar, stabilizing yields, and resilient commodity demand (despite oil dipping) are reinforcing bullish conditions, with Asia-Pacific markets and AUD/USD benefiting from improved sentiment.Chart of the day: Nikkei 225 bullish acceleration phase remains intact above 60,075 key short-term support. Next intermediate resistances at 62,044 and 62,794/63,138.Top macro headlines US-Iran tensions cool: Diplomatic breakthroughs, highlighted by statements to pause Hormuz operations, indicate an Iran deal may be close. This has reduced the geopolitical risk premium.Oil prices retreat: Following the de-escalation of Middle East tensions, crude oil prices have dipped, providing relief to markets, though prices remain structurally supported above the $100 level.Record equity highs: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at all-time highs, powered by extraordinary earnings momentum from mega-cap tech stocks and the easing of energy-related headwinds.Earnings momentum builds: US corporate earnings are being revised higher into 2026, with the 'Magnificent Seven' accounting for a significant portion of expected earnings growth.AUD recovered: The Australian dollar recovered from Tuesday, 5 May Asian low of 0.7136 ex-post RBA, supported by RBA’s hawkish monetary policy guidance and resilient risk appetite in equities. AUD/USD is firming up in today’s Asian session (+0.7%) to trade near its 52-week high at 0.7230.Key macro themes AI hardware supercycle: The underlying driver of equity outperformance remains the massive capital expenditure surrounding AI infrastructure, particularly benefiting semiconductor supply chains in Taiwan and South Korea.Energy de-escalation: The dipping of oil prices is giving central banks some breathing room, potentially weakening the narrative that sticky energy inflation will force immediate rate hikes.Divergent regional recoveries: While the US enjoys robust growth led by tech, Europe faces a more sluggish environment, as evidenced by recent contractions in economic sentiment indicators.Global markets impact (last 24 hours) Equities: Major US indices hit new milestones, with the S&P 500 surpassing 7,230 and the Dow nearing 50,000. Relief from lower oil prices broadened the rally beyond tech into cyclicals.Fixed Income: High-yield credit markets saw improved sentiment as risk appetite returned. Sovereign yields stabilized as the immediate threat of energy-driven inflation receded slightly.FX: Reducing geopolitical risk premiums put a ceiling on the US dollar strength resurgence. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD rebounded from key near-term supports at 1.1685 and 13490, respectively, after testing these levels on Tuesday, 5 May.Commodities: Oil prices dipped on cooling Middle East tensions and paused Hormuz operations, but WTI and Brent remain above $100/bbl. Industrial metals continue to see demand from the AI infrastructure buildout.Asia Pacific impact Stock markets: Regional markets showed a mostly positive response to Wall Street's record close. The Nikkei 225 futures (Globex) climbed 1.1% to 61,285 (fresh all-time high), and the ASX 200 gained 1%. The China A50 rallied 1.2% to hit almost a 4-year high, while the Hang Seng Index recovered by 0.5%Currencies: The AUD/USD remains in a near-term bullish trend as it rose to a new 52-week high of 0.7234, holding above its 20-day moving average at 0.71550.Economic outlook: Markets linked heavily to the global semiconductor supply chain (like South Korea and Taiwan) remain the strongest performers in the region, absorbing capital flows driven by the AI boom.Top 4 events to watch today Eurozone S&P Global Services PMI (final) - 4.00 pm SGT Impact: EUR crosses, DAXUK S&P S&P Global Services PMI (final) - 4.30 pm SGT Impact: GBP crosses, FTSE 100US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change - 8.15 pm SGT: A prelude to this Friday’s non-farm payrolls report (consensus: +99K, Mar: +62K) Impact: USD, S&P 500, US TreasuriesUS EIA Crude Oil Inventories - 10:30 pm SGT Impact: WTI/Brent CrudeChart of the day - Nikkei 225 bullish acceleration phase intact Fig. 1: Japan 225 CFD index minor trend as of 6 May 2026 (Source: TradingView) The price actions of the Japan 225 CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) surged to a fresh all-time high of 61,405 at this time of writing.Its short-term uptrend phase remains intact, supported by price actions that continue to oscillate within an ascending channel since the March 30, 2026, low, and the hourly RSI momentum indicator is in an overbought region (above the 70 level) without any bearish divergence conditions.Watch the 60,075 key short-term pivotal support to maintain the bullish bias for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 62,044 and 62,794/63,138 (see Fig. 1).On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below 60,075 would negate the bullish tone, leading to a corrective slide and exposing the next intermediate support at 59,050/58,545 (also the 50-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks completely erase their previous session's drops as the situation did not yet worsenTraders are preparing for next week's Trump visit in China which acts as a boon in the current pictureExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US stock indexes have bounced back from yesterday’s losses, as tensions in the Middle East have not gotten any worse and WTI Crude retreating.Rather than reacting to the ongoing stalemate, investors are now focused on next week’s presidential visit to China. President Trump also mentioned this event during his morning appearance.The upcoming diplomatic summit is giving a boost to the current economic outlook, and Participants have been waiting for it for some time.Markets are betting that the US will not start a major military operation before President Trump meets with Xi Jinping. This important summit between the leaders of the world’s biggest powers is giving markets a sense of temporary safety. As a result, tech stocks are gaining even more momentum, and the upbeat mood is quickly returning to cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin breaching $80,000 for the first time since January (up a sneaky 36% since its yearly trough).Nasdaq is back on top of today's session rally. Daily Market Performance (11:53). May 4, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Yesterday’s drop in the market was steadily reversed as the session went on. Based on recent flows, most investors are still much more optimistic than worried about the chances of the war restarting. Add to it ever stronger PMIs, and the global outlook just isn't looking terrible. Consumer sentiment is also rebounding.Of course, breaking news can always move prices quickly, but right now, the main rule on Wall Street is that selling on fear just isn’t profitable. Because of this, new bursts of buying have been very profitable for short-term traders – Add to it record earnings and projections, and the conditions for the rally have been under-appreciated. Still, the long-term outlook for geopolitics and the economy is very uncertain; It could be wise to prepare for a potential buy-the-rumor sell-the-news on Trump’s visit in China, but let’s see how the situation moves until then.It’s important to stay cautious, nimble and flexible to capture the ups and downs in the market right now. Let's dive into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:FX confusion as the US Dollar forms a double bottom – Can the Ceasefire stand? DXY OutlookAdvanced Micro Devices (AMD) Technical: Steep run-up ahead of earnings, at risk of mean reversion decline below 380.20Chart alert: AUD/USD dipped towards 0.7130 key minor support ahead of RBA decisionCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (12:27) – Source: TradingView – May 5, 2026 Tech and producer manufacturing are doing the heavy lifting in today's session, with the mood and recent earnings data continuously adding to the momentum.It seems that the current phase focuses especially more on smaller Semiconductor firms, so keep an eye on if this trend persists.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – May 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones did not extend below 49,000 after yesterday's scare, as sign of resilience in the Index which gets particularly enhanced by the rise in Manufacturing stocks.Still, a key test of the 4H 50-period MA (49,269) is showing up:Breaking it to the upside should see continuation back towards 50,000, in the formation of a 49,000 to 50,000 rangeRejecting it however would add the chances of a downward reversal ahead.For now, the action remains neutral in the DJIADow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels4H 50-period MA (49,269)Weekend Gap Fill Resistance 49,500 - 49,60049,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 HighsATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500All-Time Highs 50,544Support LevelsMajor Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (short-term bearish below)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (mid-term bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – May 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is seemingly resistant to the laws of gravity that have been seen in Stock Markets throughout the years, breaking all-time highs despite recent geopolitical fears.Currently breaking 28,000, the next stop for the index will be around 28,400 as only the bottom of the Peace bull channel can act against the rally.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels28,000 Major psychological resistancePotential resistance 28,400 (Peace channel lower bound)Support Levels27,500 micro-resistance now pivotMomentum Pivot at 27,000 (4H 50-period MA)Mini-support 26,600 to 26,750Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300War Support 25,000 to 25,250Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – May 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is attempting to test its record highs again in today's action, rebounding shy of the 4H 50-MA during yesterday's pullback and now looking to test the higher bound of the Channel (~7,300).Watch closely to see if bulls manage to push the momentum to break last week's ATH during the coming sessions.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsAll-time highs 7,280Mini-channel highs 7,300Support LevelsChannel lows 7,180 (4H 50-period MA)7,100 psychological levelPrior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the curve, with the tone increasingly worsening.Safe Trades and May the 4th be with you!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar recovered a good part of its losses in the early week, forming a key double-bottom – More upside to come?With Oil bouncing back above $105, its correlation with the FX Market picks up againUS Dollar Index (DXY) in-depth Technical Analysis The US Dollar regained much of its early-week losses and formed a double-bottom pattern on the charts, making traders question if more gains are ahead. As WTI Crude jumped back above $105, the link between energy prices and the wider FX market is growing stronger again.After all, if the past session’s speech by Fed’s Williams (the most influential voter at the Federal Reserve) showed elevated concerns about energy prices, there are many reasons to put emphasis on their price rises as traders.Still, the NY Fed’s president eased the influence of hiking dissents, so for now, this is won’t add to the nascent flame in the Dollar. WTI Crude and Dollar Index (DXY) Correlation since Late February – Source: TradingView Many in the market hoped to move past this long conflict. But after yesterday’s serious geopolitical events, dollar bulls quickly returned to price in the risk of renewed war. The semi-official Fars Agency reported that Iran launched missiles at US Navy ships in Iranian waters and carried out drone strikes on the UAE. The US military and Israel are reportedly working together on possible limited responses. With the ceasefire just failing to lead to real diplomatic progress, hopes for peace could soon fall apart.As a result, the wider FX markets are now at pivotal turning points, with the US Dollar leading the way, so we will look at the currency to spot how it could influence the action. The Greenback is close to breaking its recent downtrend that followed the ceasefire. If Crude oil rallies further, especially if it moves above $110, the petrodollar trade could quickly accelerate. Traders should keep a close eye on the war situation to see if any major breakouts are supported by real changes. FX Performance (09:06 ET) – Source: TradingView. May 5, 2026 We’ll explore a few scenarios for upcoming action in an in-depth technical analysis of DXY. Discover:Chart alert: AUD/USD dipped towards 0.7130 key minor support ahead of RBA decisionAsia open: Markets brace for RBA decision and US Services PMI loomsWar fears tarnish Metals – Silver (XAG/USD) breaks $75 & Gold (XAU/USD) tests $4,500Dollar Index (DXY) Multi-Timeframe AnalysisDaily Chart Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart. May 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is stalling right at the middle of its 96.00 to 100.00 July 2025 range, forming a double bottom after repeatedly failed diplomatic attempts.The Daily moving averages are now flattening, showing the general confusion across the FX and overall Markets – With the 200-Day MA getting tested in the morning, right at the 98.50 level, traders will want to see if it holds or breaks to power the next moves in currencies.Let's take a closer look.4H Chart and Technical Levels Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart. May 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView The immediate action is tricky:Sellers are attempting an entry at the downward channel top and 4H 50-period MA, but their momentum is shy.Two scenarios should help to discern upcoming action.Above 98.60, the rally in the dollar confirms, with the next key level entering at 99.00 (and possibility for 99.50)Below 98.20, the bear channel holds and this could point to a test of 97.60 in coming days (this would require a lower WTI Crude).Depending on the bull/bear scenarios, look for trades in FX pairs which provide interesting risk-reward scenarios, including EUR/USD, GBP/USD and GBP/USD – Don't forget to do your own due diligence!Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels98.50 4H 50-period MA & 200-day MA99.00 4H 200-period MA99.30 to 99.50 Resistance100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highsWar Highs 100.544 (Double Top)Support Levels98.00 Major Support Support 97.40 to 97.70 (double bottom level)2025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00 (bear channel lows)Range lows at Early 2022 Consolidation just below 96.00Safe Trades and keep track of the latest headlines!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways RBA decision in focus with hawkish bias: Markets are pricing a third consecutive 25 bps hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia to 4.35%, with guidance from Governor Bullock key for shaping expectations on further tightening and AUD direction.AUD/USD holding bullish structure for now: AUD/USD remains supported above 0.7130 within an ascending channel, with upside potential toward 0.7200+ if momentum holds.Downside risks tied to policy tone: A break below 0.7055 (50-day MA) could trigger a bearish reversal, especially if the RBA signals demand destruction risks from persistently high oil prices. The Reserve Bank of Australia will set its monetary policy today at 12.30 pm (SGT) follow by Governor Bullock’s press conference at 1.30 pm (SGT).The short-term swaps market has almost fully priced in a 25 basis points hike by the RBA today, its third consecutive interest rate increase, unwinding all of last year’s cuts to bring the cash policy rate to 4.35%, making the RBA a hawkish outlier among other developed central banks due to persistent domestic price pressures remaining above the RBA’s inflation target of 2%-3%.The RBA press conference and quarterly economic update provide future guidance Today’s RBA monetary policy decision meeting will also be accompanied by its quarterly update of macroeconomic forecasts, offering the first official snapshot of an outlook reshaped by the Middle East conflict.Most economists expect weaker growth, softer hiring, and a slower return of inflation to the RBA’s 2%-3% target.All eyes and ears will be at the press conference where RBA Governor Bullock may provide hints on future monetary policy stance, while the consensus remains skewed towards a hawkish tone, offering support for a firmer AUD/USD in Q2.Tail-risk scenario for a minor bearish reversal on AUD/USD breaking below 0.7055 (also the 50-day moving average) cannot be ignored if Bullock mentioned “demand destruction” to surface in the later part of 2026 due to persistent higher oil prices staying above $100/bbl.Let’s focus now on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the AUD/USD from a technical analysis perspective.AUD/USD – Still evolving within a minor bullish impulsive structure Fig. 1: AUD/USD minor trend as of 5 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Trend bias: Bullish above 0.7130 short-term pivotal support (see Fig. 1).Resistances: 0.7200 (upside trigger), 0.7244/7265, and 0.7300Next supports: 0.7100 and 0.7055Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on AUD/USD Price actions continue to oscillate within a medium-term ascending channel in place from the 30 March 2026 low of 0.6833 and remain above its 20-day moving average.Friday (1 May 2026) and Monday (4 May 2026)’s minor corrective decline of 1% has led the AUD/USD to retrace towards the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel and 20-day moving average.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has also declined towards its oversold region (below the 30 level) and just flashed out a bullish divergence condition. These observations increase the odds of a bullish reversal for AUD/USD at this juncture. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Macro risks and policy divergence in focus: Markets are bracing for the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, while strong US data reinforces a “higher-for-longer” Fed stance. Meanwhile, escalating US–Iran tensions have pushed oil prices higher, keeping geopolitical risk elevated.Cross-asset pressure from rising yields: Elevated real yields are weighing on growth stocks and gold, while the US dollar holds firm within its range. Oil remains supported above $100, maintaining a bullish structure amid supply disruption concerns.Key market drivers ahead: The spotlight is on the RBA decision, US ISM Services PMI, and Fed commentary, with FX (especially AUD and JPY), equities, and commodities poised for volatility depending on policy signals and macro data.Chart of the day: WTI crude minor bullish structure remains intact above $100.20 key support. Next intermediate resistances at 112.84 and $116.56/119.54Top macro headlines RBA rate decision in focus: Markets are fully priced for the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike rates today by 25 bps to 4.35% on the cash policy rate (third consecutive time), the accompanying statement and press conference are crucial for hints on whether the RBA will remain on a longer hawkish path.US manufacturing resilience: Recent factory orders data for March outperformed expectations (actual: 1.5% m/m, consensus: 0.5%, Feb: 0.3% revised from 0%), reinforcing the "higher-for-longer" narrative for the Federal Reserve and keeping US Treasury yields elevated.Middle East peace talks stagnate: The month-long US-Iran ceasefire agreement, since 8 April, is now in jeopardy as the US and Iran exchanged fire in the Persian Gulf over the US Navy’s facilitation of the passage of two US-flagged ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also attacked the UAE with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. Brent crude rallied by 4.5% to close Monday’s US session at $114.07/bbl.Yen intervention watch: Following last week's dramatic moves where the USD/JPY plunged 2.4% on Thursday, 30 April, from a high of 160.73, the pair has stabilized near 156.50, but traders remain cautious of potential secondary intervention from Tokyo during the London/NY overlap.Key macro themes Monetary policy divergence: A clear divide is emerging between the Fed's wait-and-see approach and the potential for selective tightening in APAC (Australia/Japan) to combat imported inflation.The return of real yields: As inflation expectations stabilize but nominal yields remain high, rising real yields are starting to pressure speculative growth stocks and non-yielding assets like gold. The recent rebound (Wed to Fri) seen in gold (XAU/USD) has fizzled out at US$4,645, right below its 20-day moving average (US$4,700), acting as a key near-term resistance.Supply chain realignment: Weekend discussions on trade tariffs continue to drive institutional rotation into domestic-centric industrial plays and away from globalized consumer staples.Global market impact (last 24 hours) Equities: S&P 500 futures are flat in early trade in today’s early Asian session after the cash index slipped 0.4% on Monday. Technology stocks' outperformance is cooling as semiconductor stocks digest recent gains.Fixed Income: The US 10-year yield is hovering near 4.15%. Curve inversion remains a primary concern for credit markets.FX: The DXY rose for the second consecutive session, holding above its 97.95 key near-term support, but remains capped below its 99.16 near-term range resistance since 8 April. EUR and GBP trimmed last Thursday’s gains on rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. AUD shed -0.5% to 0.7167 ahead of the RBA decision but still holding above its 20-day moving average at 0.7145.Commodities: Brent and WTI crude are steady at around $113/bbl and $107/bbl. Gold (XAU/USD) remains soft after Monday’s 1.9% decline. It is now trading at $4,521, testing last Wednesday, 29 April low of $4,510.Asia Pacific impact Stock markets: The ASX 200 is trading cautiously ahead of the RBA. The Hang Seng Index and China A50 may find support above 25,675 and 15,375, respectively, despite a firm yuan, given elevated oil prices. Japan is closed for a holiday today.Currencies: The AUD/USD is the most volatile pair in the region, currently testing 0.6620. The JPY is largely rangebound but remains the primary source of volatility in regional carry trades.Regional Outlook: The resilient China manufacturing PMI data (staying above 50) released last week is providing a temporary buffer for Southeast Asian exporters, despite the high global sovereign bond yields environment.Top 4 Events to watch today RBA Interest Rate Decision (AU) - 12:30 pm SGT: Market is expecting a third 25 bps hike to 4.35% on the cash policy rate, reinforced by renewed inflation pressures. Impact: AUD pairs, ASX 200.RBA Press Conference (AU) - 1:30 pm SGT: Looking for clues whether the current interest rate hike cycle will extend further. Impact: AUD pairs, ASX 200.ISM Services PMI (US) - 10:00 pm SGT: A critical gauge of the dominant sector of the US economy (consensus: 53.7, Mar: 54.0) Impact: USD, US stock indices, Treasuries.Fed Bowman Speaks (US) - 10:00 pm SGT: Seeking clues on the Fed's monetary policy stance on elevated oil prices. Impact: Short-end Treasuries, USD.Chart of the day - WTI crude remains bullish above $100.20 Fig. 1: West Texas oil CFD minor trend as of 5 May 2026 (Source: TradingView) The price actions of West Texas oil CFD (a proxy of WTI crude futures) remain in a short-term bullish structure as it continues to oscillate within a minor ascending channel in place since 17 April 2026 low.In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator remains supported by an ascending trendline above the 50 level, which suggests short-term bullish momentum remains intact.Watch the $100.20 short-term pivotal support to maintain a bullish bias. A clearance above $112.84 near-term resistance sees the next intermediate resistances coming in at $116.56/119.54 ( the range top of 9 March/7 April 2026).However, a break and an hourly close below $100.20 jeopardizes the bullish tone for a minor corrective slide to retest the intermediate supports at $95.10 and $90.50 (also close to the 50-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.