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Timid recovery in Metals – North American session Market wrap for February 2
Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for February 2 Traders are still trying to grasp the significance of Friday’s historic move in the metals market after Kevin Warsh's nomination to be the next Fed Chair.The price action was so extreme that it exceeded 99.9996% of typical volatility observations — a very rare 6-sigma event.Silver retested the $71.30 lows (!) after gapping down at the weekly open, but rebounded sharply to close the session up around 2%, near $80.Gold, meanwhile, wicked down to $4,400 and remained relatively calm throughout the session.Metals are unlikely to snap back immediately, but they are showing notable resilience following such a massive shock.Stocks, on the other hand, have recovered all of Friday’s losses, supported by the fastest growth in US manufacturing since 2022 and dip-buying following weekend risk deleveraging, as the probability of Iran-US talks increased in an effort to ease mounting pressure.Diplomacy remains a possible path forward, but the odds of reaching a consensus to avoid a full-blown conflict appear low.US demands — including reducing enriched uranium and scaling back ballistic missile programs — have been described as unacceptable by Iranian advisers.Oil has also given back a large portion of its Friday gains and is now retesting its upward trendline around $62 — a familiar pattern when geopolitical risk premiums fail to hold.Meanwhile, a partial US government shutdown began over the weekend, leading to the postponement of Friday’s NFP release. Further details will follow once the BLS announces an updated schedule. Discover:Bitcoin breaks $80,000! Altcoins suffer – BTC, ETH and SOL OutlookOil prices down 6% as US-Iran de-escalation hopes cool market heat… Is it the end of the line for bulls?Stocks rebound to start February – US Index Outlook zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – February 2, 2026 Palantir just beat on its earnings by an enormous margin so expect movement there tomorrow!For the rest, the picture is broadly green from the beat on the Manufacturing PMIs, great news that were very welcome for investors.Keep a close eye on Volatility events this week, as this weekend didn't deliver any surprises but anxiety remains high.Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, February 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView As you can see, this weekend offered quite some volatile gaps lower across asset classes.Still, most remained pretty resilient after today's action, particularly with Sentiment rebounding.Trader can still expect a lot of volatility this week.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, February 2, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs The US Dollar also rebounded sharply in today's session, extending above the 50% retracement of its Greenland move lower.For the rest of FX, the CHF has been getting hammered quite harshly in the past two session so keep an eye on whether this lasts or not. The Swiss currency is also affected by risk-appetite and can either jump up or down depending on the outcomes of the US-Iran talks.AUD traders will be looking closely at tonight's RBA event – Get ready!Major Earnings in Tomorrow's session zoom_out_map Earnings Calendar for February 3, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com Tomorrow's session will focus heavily on traditional and energy sectors – Focus on Chevron, Exxon and Verizon, all releasing their earnings during the pre-Open.A look at Economic data releasing throughout today and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. All eyes are on the Royal Bank of Australia.Today’s evening session is dominated by the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, where a 25 bps hike is heavily expected – Traders will also focus on Bullock's tone to spot if more are to come or not.Any shift in tone around how restrictive policy really is or the balance of risks between inflation and growth could move rate expectations quickly, particularly at the front end of the Aussie curve.With US Data not releasing due to the partial shutdown, traders will focus more on the weekly ADP report as the NFP won't come on time.Safe Trades, keep a close eye on the Middle East!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
Bitcoin breaks $80,000! Altcoins suffer – BTC, ETH and SOL Outlook
Bitcoin breaks lower and drags pessimistic sentiment in CryptocurrenciesWith the current volatile environment, investors reduce risk-positioningObserving technical analysis for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana Cryptocurrencies are struggling after rejecting early-year rebound attempts. Risk sentiment remains weak even as equities hover near all-time highs: Investors are reducing exposure to risk-sensitive assets, mirroring the underperformance in semiconductor and tech sectors as high-beta capital rotates back into hardware.Digital assets faced significant headwinds at the end of 2025, lagging behind most other asset classes – These negative flows still continue to weigh on the sector. MicroStrategy (MSTR), a key figure in the previous bull run, is now under scrutiny as its Bitcoin holdings near the breakeven point, with an average cost basis of approximately $76,000.As noted in our year-end analysis, the total Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization is breaking support after previously holding its long-term upward trendline, signaling potential for further downside – Keep an eye on the $2 Trillion mark! zoom_out_map Crypto total Market Cap Monthly Chart – Source: TradingView Cryptocurrencies are inherently volatile. Historically, the best investment opportunities arise when interest and mentions are low, while peak popularity often signals a time to take profits. Currently, the market remains active with traders attempting to buy dips, suggesting sentiment has not yet fully washed out.Given the bearish short-term outlook, patience is advisable. Letting prices and hype cool down while waiting for a more favorable macro setup may offer better entry points – Still, the large corrections already favor better entries compared to peak prices from mid-2025.This is when starting DCA strategies could start to make sense. zoom_out_map Current Session in Cryptos – February 2, 2026 (15:23). Source: FInviz Following a disastrous weekend session, altcoins are seeing a timid recovery but remain well below last week's levels. Most of the main names are green on the day and the biggest gains stand around 5%.Let's dive right into the Daily Charts and technical levels for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL). Read More:Stocks rebound to start February – US Index OutlookSilver posts worst day on record, crude slips lower & latest from Trump and FedMarkets Today: Euro Zone output rebounds, gold and silver extend slide, FTSE 100 resilientBitcoin (BTC) 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Bitcoin (BTC) 4H Chart, February 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin freshly retested its Liberation Day lows ($74,500) and is rebounding timidly from that level.With the painful action from the weekend, it is rough to say that dip-buying is looking like a favorable setup – At least for now.A bullish push above $80,000 and daily close above the level relaunches positive prospects for Bitcoin and the rest of the Crypto Market.Consolidating below the key psychological level could lead to further downside, with the next Main support at $63,000 (Minor support at $70,000).Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels$75,000 Key long-term support (Liberation Day lows)$68,000 to $70,000 end-2024 Minor Support$$60,000 to $63,000 Main 2024 supportResistance Levels$80,000 to $83,000 Major Pivot (November 21 Lows $80,740)$88,000 to $93,000 Pivotal Resistance$98,000 to $100,000 ResistanceResistance at previous ATH $106,000 to $108,000Current ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000Ethereum (ETH) 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Ethereum (ETH) 4H Chart, February 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView Ethereum gave back its early 2026 positive setup, having broken first its $3,000 handle before giving up all of its Mid-2025 explosion throughout last week.Its overnight wick retested ETH's pre-June War Support zone ($2,100 to $2,300) with the action remaining fragile at that level.Traders will want to see a high volume and positive candle, preferably after a double bottom for the action to turn more positive – For now, expect consolidation near support.Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:$2,100 to $2,300 June War support ($2,150 overnight lows)$2,000 psychological support$1,385 to $1,750 2025 Major Support2025 Lows $1,384Resistance Levels:$2,500 to $2,700 June 2025 Key Pivot$3,000 to $3,200 December resistance$3,400 January Highs$3,500 (+/- $50) Key Resistance$4,000 Dec 2024 Top Main Resistance zone$4,950 Current new All-time highsSolana (SOL) 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Solana (SOL) 4H Chart, February 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView Solana got subject to quite some heavy selling, representing the rest of the Altcoin market in its struggles.Now facing a very important test at its $100 Liberation Day support, traders will want to watch if bulls can retake control after the 57% retracement from its 2025 peak.Repassing above $115 would turn the momentum from bearish to neutral-bullish on short-timeframe.Levels to keep on your SOL Charts:Support Levels:$97 to $100 Liberation Day lows$95.95 Weekend Lows$76 to $82 Major 2022 PivotResistance Levels:Major Momentum Pivot $115 to $120$125 to $130 2026 Base Resistance$140 to $150 Major Resistance$253 Cycle highsSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
Markets Today: Euro Zone output rebounds, gold and silver extend slide, FTSE 100 resilient
Asia Market Wrap - Asian markets volatile after last week's selloff Japan's stock market had a rough Monday, with the Nikkei index dropping 1.2% for its biggest weekly loss. The day actually started well because a weak yen helped exporters and positive election news for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi boosted confidence.However, that optimism vanished when technology and mining stocks tanked. The main trigger was bad news for the AI industry: reports surfaced that Nvidia might cancel a massive $100 billion investment in OpenAI, which caused tech stocks to plummet across Asia, including a 4% drop in South Korea’s Kospi index.Meanwhile, Indonesia's stock market is facing its own crisis, losing over $80 billion in value recently. Investors are pulling their money out of the country because they are losing faith in President Prabowo Subianto’s economic plans and are worried about a lack of transparency in how the markets are run. Things have become so concerning that a major global index provider warned Indonesia might be downgraded to "frontier status," which essentially means it would be seen as a much riskier and less developed place to invest.Most Read: 2026 US Dollar Forecast: How the Fed, Government Spending, and AI Will Drive VolatilityEuro Zone output rebounds Europe’s manufacturing sector is still struggling, marking its third straight month of decline. While a key survey showed that factories are actually starting to produce more goods again, the overall industry is shrinking because new orders continue to drop. Think of it like a factory that is running its machines but doesn't have enough new customers to keep the momentum going.On top of that, factories have been cutting jobs for nearly three years, though the layoffs are finally starting to slow down.The situation across Europe is very "hit or miss" depending on the country. Greece and France are seeing their factories grow, with France hitting its best streak in over three years. However, the biggest economies like Germany, Italy, and Spain are still stuck in a slump.Making matters worse, the cost of raw materials and energy is rising at the fastest rate in three years, but factories aren't able to raise their own prices to cover those costs, which puts a squeeze on their profits.Despite these current headaches, there is a glimmer of hope. Factory owners are feeling more confident about the future than they have since early 2022, betting that things will eventually turn around later this year.European Session - European stocks start the month in the red European stock markets started February on a low note, with major indexes like the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 both losing value. This decline followed a global trend where investors pulled their money out of riskier investments.Two main factors caused this: first, a massive sell-off in commodities like oil and metals, and second, renewed worries that Artificial Intelligence (AI) companies might be overvalued.The mood shifted largely because of news from the US and the tech world. Investors are nervous about Kevin Warsh being nominated to lead the US Federal Reserve, fearing he will take a "tougher" approach to the economy.At the same time, a report revealed that Nvidia is reconsidering a massive $100 billion investment in OpenAI, which caused tech stocks to slide.While big energy and mining companies like Shell and Rio Tinto saw their stock prices drop, some consumer companies like Nestlé and Unilever actually managed to gain value as investors looked for safer places to put their money.On the FX front, the US dollar remained strong on Monday as investors processed the news that Kevin Warsh has been nominated to lead the Federal Reserve. This nomination has given the dollar a boost because traders expect Warsh to be more focused on controlling inflation.Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is back in the spotlight after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi spoke in favor of a weaker currency to help Japanese exporters. This message contradicts her own finance officials, who have been trying to stop the yen from losing too much value, leading to some confusion and volatility in the market.In Europe and the UK, the euro and the pound remained mostly steady as investors wait for upcoming interest rate decisions from their central banks later this week.Elsewhere, the Australian dollar fell slightly before its own central bank meeting, while the Canadian and New Zealand dollars also saw small drops.Additionally, the dollar grew stronger against the Norwegian krone because oil prices crashed by 5%.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices took a sharp dive on Monday, falling about 5% after President Donald Trump suggested that tensions with Iran were cooling off.Prices had reached high levels in January because people were worried a conflict might disrupt global oil supplies, but those fears eased when Trump mentioned that Iran was "seriously talking" with the US government. Because the risk of a military strike has faded, both global Brent crude and US oil prices dropped by over $3.50 per barrel, erasing some of the big gains seen last month.Beyond the news out of the Middle East, other factors are also helping to push prices down. Oil production in places like the US and Kazakhstan is back on track after recent disruptions, meaning there is more oil available for everyone. Between the increase in supply and the decrease in political drama, the pressure that was keeping energy prices high has finally started to lift.On Monday, precious metals continued their slide in the Asian session. Prices for gold, silver, oil, and industrial metals all fell sharply, mostly because investors are reacting to the news that Kevin Warsh has been chosen as the next leader of the Federal Reserve.Market participants are worried that Warsh will be "tougher" on the economy, which led to a massive wave of selling that has lasted for two days straight.Gold prices dropped 5% to their lowest level in weeks, while silver fell more than 7%, a shocking reversal after both reached record highs just last week.The selling got even more intense because the main exchange for these metals (CME Group) decided to raise the "down payment" (called a margin) required to trade them. This move forced many traders to sell their holdings because they didn't have enough cash to cover the new, higher costs.This follows a historic "crash" that started on Friday, which saw gold suffer its biggest one-day drop since 1983 and silver plunge by 27%, the largest daily loss ever recorded for the metal.Gold and Silver bulls are showing some life here in early European trade with Gold recovering to trade around the $4700/oz mark.Read More:Markets Weekly Outlook - NFP forecast, Fed's new direction, RBA rate hike risk, BoE/ECB pause and big tech earningsChart alert: Gold extends plunge by 9%, approaching $4,405 inflection level for potential minor bounceBitcoin under price pressure: (BTC/USD) fails to hold the $88000 level. Is a recovery on the way?Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts Data is largely thin today with Euro Area PMI released already.There will be some earnings releases from the US before the market open with Disney reporting results.In the US session we will get some key PMI data releases and some Fed speakers.The US dollar is starting to gain strength again. Over the past week, the dollar’s value had been dropping because people were worried the government might intentionally weaken it (a trend known as the "de-basement trade").However, that trend has reversed now that President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next head of the Federal Reserve. Because investors were previously over-invested in gold and silver, they are now selling those metals and moving their money back into the dollar, which is helping the currency bounce back.I was and remain of the belief that the dollar’s recent drop didn't actually match the reality of the US economy, so this recovery makes sense.Moving forward, the dollar’s value will likely be driven by new economic reports and changes in interest rates rather than just rumors. For now, the expectation is that the dollar will continue to get stronger in the coming days as the market stabilizes. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index has broken back above the 100-day MA.The FTSE showed resilience last week in the face of a broad market selloff with the index holding comfortably above the 10000 point handle.This in my view is crucial as it keeps the bullish momentum intact.Looking to further upside potential and a four-hour candle close above the swing highs resting at 10273 is needed.A move lower from here may find support at the 200-day MA at the 10039 handle before the 10000 handle comes into focus.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, February 2, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Safe Trading Week to All.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
Markets Weekly Outlook - NFP forecast, Fed's new direction, RBA rate hike risk, BoE/ECB pause and big tech earnings
Week in review Kevin Warsh nominated as the next US Federal Reserve Chair.Commodity markets saw a sharp reversal, with silver down 27%.Key focus for the week ahead: Alphabet and Amazon earnings.Central Banks (RBA, BoE, ECB) meet ahead of the January NFP report.A blockbuster week for global markets with wild price swings, geopolitical risk, Central Bank meetings and a new Fed Chair nominated.The starting point though has to be the stark reversal in commodity markets on Thursday and Friday which sent markets into a tailspin. At the time of writing, spot silver is down around 27% on the day, on track for their biggest daily drop on record, based on LSEG data available through 1982. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG Read More: The Fed Chair has been picked: Who is Kevin Warsh?Gold on the other hand was down as much as 12%.The selloff in commodities was driven largely by profit taking as well as a late renaissance for the US Dollar following the announcement by President Trump that Kevin Warsh has been tapped as the next chair of the US Federal Reserve.Donald Trump mentioned he won’t ask Kevin Warsh (a candidate to lead the central bank) directly if he plans to cut interest rates. However, Trump believes Warsh naturally favors making it cheaper for people and businesses to borrow money.Adding to markets' late week malaise was a strong US PPI print which came in above the 0.2% estimate of economists polled by Reuters, after an unrevised 0.2% gain in November. Businesses appeared to be passing on higher costs from import tariffs. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG The stock market saw some mixed results today. Apple’s stock price dropped by nearly 1% after the company shared its latest financial report, which put some downward pressure on the US market.Despite this drop, the S&P 500 index is still heading toward its first winning week in nearly a month. On a global scale, MSCI's gauge of stocks that tracks stocks worldwide fell slightly today, but it is still on track to finish the week in the green and have its best month since September.READ MORE: US Stocks fall from Warsh's nomination – Month-End flows and US Index OutlookIn Europe, stocks actually performed well with the pan-European STOXX 600 index closing up 0.64%. Strong earnings have helped propel the index to its biggest monthly gain since May. The index registered its seventh straight monthly gain, its longest streak since 2021.On the FX front, the US dollar got stronger today continuing to show signs of stabilizing after recent weakness. The dollar index which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.57% to 96.73, with the euro down 0.54% at $1.1904.The dollar was still on track for a second straight weekly decline and third straight monthly drop. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG The Week Ahead For the week starting February 2, 2026, markets face a critical junction as the "Magnificent Seven" earnings season continues alongside pivotal central bank decisions and the January US jobs report.Big Tech Earnings: Alphabet and AmazonInvestors are laser-focused on whether AI investments are beginning to yield significant returns or if capital expenditure (capex) is rising too quickly.Alphabet (Wednesday, Feb 4):Expectations: Analysts expect Q4 earnings to grow 22.4% to $2.63 per share, with revenue rising 15.5% to $111.4bn.The Big Question: Capex is expected to have surged by over 90% to $27.3bn. Markets will look for guidance on 2026 spending; if it exceeds the projected $89.8bn without clear revenue growth, the stock could face pressure.Market Sentiment: Options markets imply a potential 5.5% post-earnings swing. Resistance is seen at $350.Amazon (Thursday, Feb 5):Expectations: Forecasts suggest revenue of $211.3bn (up 12.5%). The key metric will be AWS (Cloud) revenue, projected to grow 21.1% to $34.9bn.Market Sentiment: Shares are currently in a "symmetrical triangle" consolidation. A break above $250 would signal a bullish trend, while disappointing AWS growth could send the stock toward support at $220.US Labor Market: The January Jobs ReportThe headline event of the week arrives on Friday, Feb 6 (Saturday morning AEDT).Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): After a soft December (+50k jobs), January is expected to see a slight improvement with 70,000 jobs added.Unemployment Rate: Expected to hold steady at 4.4%.Market Impact: A stronger-than-expected report could bolster the US Dollar, especially following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, who is perceived as less "dovish" than his predecessors.Central Bank Decisions (The "Thursday Double-Header")Both the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) meet on Thursday, Feb 5.BoE: Markets expect rates to stay on hold at 3.75%. However, with UK unemployment at a multi-year high (5.1%), traders will hunt for signals of a rate cut later in Q1 or Q2.ECB: Also expected to pause. The focus remains on whether the Euro (EUR/USD) can sustain its breakout above the $1.19 level.Asia-Pacific: RBA Interest Rate DecisionCloser to home, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, Feb 3.The Outlook: Following higher-than-expected trimmed mean inflation (3.4%) and a falling unemployment rate (4.1%), the market has aggressively priced in a 75% chance of a 25bp rate hike.The ASX 200: The local index is hovering just 2% below its all-time high (9115.2). A hawkish RBA could create headwinds for the index, though materials and energy sectors remain a source of strength. zoom_out_map zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Week - US Dollar Index (DXY) From a technical perspective, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has made a late week recovery printing a bullish engulfing daily candle close on Friday.The index has closed above a key resistance level at 96.90 which does bode well for further upside.The question now is whether the rally is sustainable?The US dollar is facing several other problems. Conflicts around the world (geopolitics), concerns about how much money the US government is spending (fiscal risks), and the possibility that different countries might work together to lower the dollar’s value (FX intervention) have all been weighing on the Dollar.If the US DOllar is able to overcome these in the short-term, immediate resistance rests at 97.70 before the 200-day MA comes into focus at 98.62.A move lower from current prices faces support at 96.37 before this weeks lows around 95.50 comes into focus.US Dollar Index (DXY) Chart, January 30, 2026 zoom_out_map Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
A rough end to January – North American session Market wrap for January 30
Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 30 The week is closing with extreme volatility. In a stunning reversal, President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair today, contradicting his statement from just two days ago that the decision would wait until next week.This surprise hit fragile post-FOMC conditions and was amplified by brutal month-end flows. Metals were decimated in a cascading liquidation event – Silver collapsed from $115 to lows near $70, while Gold plunged below $5,000. zoom_out_map Metal Markets Daily Performance – Courtesy of Finviz If these moves are primarily month-end profit-taking, Monday could offer a rebound – The situation is quite blurry for now.However, if buyers don't step in immediately, this could quickly turn into a deeper liquidity shock so Monday will be ver. Adding to the anxiety, an intervention in Iran appears imminent. Watch the headlines closely over the weekend. Discover:The Fed Chair has been picked: Who is Kevin Warsh?US Stocks fall from Warsh's nomination – Month-End flows and US Index OutlookSilver down 30%! – Chaos in the Metals Market zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 30, 2026 Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 30, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs The US Dollar is back!Watch the 97.00 level for the Dollar Index, any bounce above could infer further cascades relating to Kevin Warsh's appointment.Major Earnings in Monday's session zoom_out_map Earnings Calendar – January 28, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com A look at Economic data releasing throughout the Weekend and Monday zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Safe Trades, keep a close eye on the Middle East!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
US Stocks fall from Warsh's nomination – Month-End flows and US Index Outlook
Stock Markets keep correcting after FOMC highs after Kevin Warsh's nomination for Fed ChairUS Indexes test lower levels as Month-end flows prepareExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Global markets received a shocker this morning with the announcement of the next Federal Reserve leader.Kevin Warsh has been tapped to replace Jerome Powell when his term concludes in May.The news triggered a huge reactions around Markets.Metals, historically strong in January, were hammered by a combination of post-FOMC adjustments and month-end flows.Extreme leverage and positioning did what it does best when the trend reverses, it creates a cascade of panic across all asset classes.US stocks were caught in the stray.All major indexes are trading lower as a beta-reducing wave sweeps through the market, with the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 leading the decline.Interestingly, this weakness is isolated to the US, as global equity markets actually rose during today's session – This really confirms the impact of the Fed Announcement.As forced liquidations risk triggering further market instability, traders should prepare for rough conditions ahead.With month-end flows colliding with the weekly close and lingering anxiety over Iran, the market mood is decidedly timid as the weekend approaches – Keep your eyes wide open! zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (14:48 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 30, 2026 Today's picture is not a pretty one, with almost everything down except Consumer Defensives, led by Verizon after huge earnings and strong projections, and Tesla, the best performer among Megacaps.Dive into our daily session charts and pre-FOMC trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Silver down 30%! – Chaos in the Metals MarketThe Fed Chair has been picked: Who is Kevin Warsh?Will the RBA Opt for a Rapid Policy Reversal?Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – January 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones is now evolving within a descending Channel right after testing its all-time highs – Not such a worrying sign as prices remain close to the recent records but watch out as cracks emerge.Still, the late afternoon rebound is helping the outlook for the Index which points to a more rangebound action ahead (discarding any black swan events).Keep these two levels closely for next week:Above 49,100, the price action is clear and points toward a pursued run to at least a test of the all-time highsBelow 48,400 however, further downside is to be expected around 47,500Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsChristmas ATH Daily Mom. Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100Resistance 49,200 to 49,300ATH Resistance From 49,500 to 49,700All-time Highs 49,71050,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport LevelsIntraday Pivot 48,600 to 48,70048,487 Session lowsKey Support around 47,50045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – January 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq did not get such a positive treatment from dip-buyers.The Tech-Heavy index is testing its 25,200 mini-support. Except for a rebounding investor sentiment or more positive global news, the Index looks poised for a drop towards 24,500.Keep a close look at the Monday open – Buying on Monday would help the situation, watch out what happens if dip-buyers don't show up!Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsSession Highs 25,840Intermediate Resistance 25,700 to 25,85026,246 FOMC highsAll-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Support LevelsMini-support 25,200 to 25,500 +/- 75 ptssession lows 25,470Wednesday lows 24,91324,500 Main supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – January 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is looking more robust than its peers, particularly as it rebounded close to its session highs ahead of today's close (6,969).Similarly as Nasdaq and Dow Jones however, it will have to breach back above its Pivot zone to clear bearish factors (6,975) – rejecting the current levels could bring more consistent outflows.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsPrevious ATH Resistance now Pivot 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH 7,020All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (testing)Potential Breakout targets (Fibinacci-Extensions)1.362 = 7,0801.618 = 7,119Support LevelsMinor-Support 6,880 to 6,900Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,850 (Greenland lows)6,800 Psychological Support6,789 Greenland lows6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep an eye on sentiment on Monday!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
Silver down 30%! – Chaos in the Metals Market
Yesterday's flows really did open a breach for a gigantic profit-taking wave in Metals, exploding exponentially since 2026.Gold and Silver showed a few cracks through yesterday's first crash, but today is something else.The Bullion dropped below $5,000. Platinum, Copper, Silver and Palladium are down between 15% to 30%!!Silver Daily Chart zoom_out_map Silver (CFD) Daily Chart – January 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView Gold Daily Chart zoom_out_map Gold (CFD) Daily Chart – January 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView zoom_out_map Morning Session moves in Metal Futures – Courtesy of Finviz The Metals market lost quite a few trillion dollars of value just today – But despite the panic around Markets, it is essential to take a step back.Silver had risen 70% in parabolic and unstable moves higher and this can trigger sharp Market conditions. Look at today's move!Today's selling took out all of the Metals profits in 2026 – XAG/USD is still 185% higher than it was on January 1, 2025!Even if the run continues from here, odds for metals to return to their prior year levels are low.Trying to profit from parabolic trend can be dangerous, as was highlighted in our past week Warning – They still offer interesting trade setups but need to be treated with respect.Nothing is given in Markets and things can change any second.Stocks are also not liking these flows zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 1H Chart – January 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView A Stock Market update is coming up very soon.Watch out for month-end flows! The picture in equities isn't looking very bullish across different Benchmarks – Watch out for volatility in upcoming sessions ahead of Weekend risk.The US Dollar doesn't know where to go zoom_out_map US Dollar (DXY) 1H Chart – Source: TradingView – January 30, 2026 Keep a very close eye on the headlines to monitor Market developments.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
Will the RBA Opt for a Rapid Policy Reversal?
Core inflation in Australia rose to 3.4% y/y, exceeding both forecasts and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2–3% target range, increasing pressure on the central bank to act.Markets are pricing in a high probability (~76%) of a February rate hike, potentially marking a sharp policy reversal less than six months after the last rate cut.Strong labour market conditions and accelerating services inflation suggest underlying demand pressures remain elevated, testing the RBA’s credibility and policy resolve. The latest inflation data from Australia has once again raised concerns among monetary policymakers and investors. Core inflation (the trimmed mean) — regarded by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as the key measure of underlying price pressure — rose in the fourth quarter to 3.4% year on year. This reading not only exceeded market expectations (3.3%), but also moved above the upper bound of the RBA’s inflation target range (2–3%).On a quarterly basis, core inflation came in at 0.9%, in line with forecasts. However, the annual acceleration suggests that the disinflation process may be less durable than previously assumed.Headline inflation accelerates – energy and services in focusPrice pressures are also evident in headline inflation. In December, CPI rose to 3.8% y/y, up from 3.4% a month earlier. The largest contributors to the increase were:Housing: +5.5%Food and non-alcoholic beverages: +3.4%Recreation and culture: +4.4% zoom_out_map Australia Inflation Rate, source: TradingEconomics The composition of inflation deserves particular attention. Services inflation accelerated to 4.1% y/y, from 3.6%, typically signalling strong domestic demand and persistent wage pressures. Goods inflation, meanwhile, stood at 3.4% y/y, with electricity prices surging by 21.5%, further complicating efforts to rein in inflation.Labour market strength strengthens the case for tighter policyElevated inflation is accompanied by a relatively tight labour market. Unemployment has fallen to around 4%, suggesting that demand-side pressures in the economy remain strong. This macroeconomic mix — high inflation and low unemployment — significantly narrows the central bank’s room for manoeuvre and increases the risk that price pressures become entrenched.It is worth recalling that the RBA cut interest rates as recently as August, but already signalled in December that the next move could be a rate hike if inflation data proved concerning.Financial markets price in a February rate hikeMarket reaction has been swift. OIS contracts now price in around a 76% probability of a rate hike at the 2–3 February meeting. Such a move would represent a sharp pivot in monetary policy — less than six months after the last rate cut. At the same time, three-year government bond yields fell to 4.28%, possibly indicating that some investors view the recent rise in inflation as temporary or expect only a one-off tightening move by the RBA.Among major financial institutions, consensus is building around the upcoming meeting. Westpac Banking Corp. and ANZ Bank both expect a 25-basis-point rate hike, taking the cash rate to 3.85%. Westpac, however, stresses that such a move does not necessarily mark the start of a sustained tightening cycle. A “wait-and-see” approach remains plausible, particularly if inflationary pressures prove short-lived and begin to ease in the months ahead. A stronger Australian dollar signals investor confidenceWithin the G10 currency universe, the Australian dollar has performed notably well. Since the start of the year, it has appreciated by over 4%, making it the second-best-performing currency in the group. The currency’s strength reflects both expectations of higher interest rates and investor confidence in Australia’s relative resilience amid global economic uncertainty. zoom_out_map Daily Timeframe of AUDUSD, source: TradingView The RBA decision as a test of credibilityThe upcoming RBA meeting in early February will carry significance beyond a single interest-rate decision. Following a recent easing cycle, the central bank now faces a credibility test: whether to pivot decisively in response to rising inflation or treat the latest data as a temporary disturbance. What is clear is that the recent inflation readings have substantially increased pressure on the RBA, and the February decision could set the tone for Australian monetary policy in the quarters ahead. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
Chart alert: Gold has formed a medium-term blow-off top below $5,600
Key takeaways Gold likely formed a medium-term blow-off top: After surging to a record high of US$5,602, Gold reversed sharply with a 12% drop, signalling that the recent bullish acceleration phase has been damaged and may have peaked.Pullback driven by positioning and hawkish expectations: The sell-off appears driven more by stop-outs of leveraged long positions below US$5,238, amplified by speculation over a hawkish Fed Chair nominee, rather than any hard fundamental shock.Short-term bias turns corrective unless US$5,240 is reclaimed: Gold is now in a short-term corrective decline within a broader uptrend, with downside risks toward US$4,888–4,550 unless prices regain and hold above US$5,240, which would reopen upside squeeze risk This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) eyeing $5,000 and beyond as bullish acceleration intact”, published on 23 January 2026.Since the start of this week, Gold (XAU/USD) continued to extend its bullish acceleration and hit the intermediate resistance zone at US$5,049/5,149, as highlighted.The precious yellow metal printed a fresh all-time high of US$5,602 on Thursday, 29 January, and then staged a swift 11.8% decline to an intraday low of US$4,941 on Friday, 30 January, at the time of writing.The volatile movement seen in Gold (XAU/USD) in the past 24 hours has not been triggered by any concrete fundamental catalysts.Media reports suggesting that former US Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Walsh may be nominated as the next Fed Chair, an announcement expected later today by President Trump, have been cited as the catalyst behind the ongoing pullback in precious metals.Walsh is widely viewed as hawkish, raising concerns over tighter monetary policy and higher-for-longer interest rates, which have weighed on gold and broader precious metals prices.Based on technical analysis and order flows, it seems like short-term speculative leveraged long positions got stopped when Gold (XAU/USD) crossed below a short-term pivotal support at US$5,238.Overall, the short-term bullish acceleration phase for Gold has been damaged.Let’s now look at the latest short-term technical elements to decipher the yellow metal’s potential trajectory for the next 1 to 3 days.Short-term trend (1 to 3 days): Corrective decline within a medium-term uptrend zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 30 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) medium-term trend as of 30 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the US$5,240 short-term pivotal resistance on Gold (XAU/USD) to maintain the ongoing minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at US$4,888, US$4,757, and US$4,630/4,550 (see Fig. 1).On the flip side, clearance and an hourly close above US$5,240 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up towards US$5,473 and a retest of the current all-time high area of US$5,600Key elements to support the short-term bearish bias The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have formed an impending daily bearish “Evening Star” candlestick pattern, which suggests this week’s bullish acceleration has transformed into a potential medium-term “blow-off” top (see Fig. 2).There is still further room for the current price actions to stage a further retracement towards the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
Markets Today: European economies expand, gold and silver plunge as markets await Fed Chair announcement and PCE data
Asia Market Wrap - Warsh to lead the Fed? Markets optimistic Global markets react to Fed newsEuropean economies showed surprising resilience and growth at the end of last year.Commodity price plunge, Gold down over 7%, Silver down 10%US PCE data and Trump announcement of Fed Chair laterMost Read: 2026 US Dollar Forecast: How the Fed, Government Spending, and AI Will Drive VolatilityGlobal stock markets fell and the US dollar rose on Friday after President Trump signaled he has chosen Kevin Warsh to be the new head of the Federal Reserve.Although Warsh generally prefers lower interest rates, investors view him as a "safe" choice who is unlikely to take extreme risks with the economy compared to other candidates.This news hit Asian markets hard, causing them to drop 1.4% on their worst day this month, driven largely by significant losses in Chinese companies.Despite this bad day, Asian stocks are still on track to finish the month with their best overall performance in three years, while Japan's Nikkei saw only a very small decline of 0.1%.European economies resilient The largest economies in Europe grew steadily at the end of last year, showing surprising strength despite facing many global challenges.Even though exports were low and unpredictable US trade policies caused uncertainty, increased spending by regular people and businesses kept the economy moving forward.This growth defied expectations that the region would suffer from trade wars, competition from China, and nearby military conflicts.Germany and Italy both grew by 0.3%, beating predictions, while Spain performed the best with strong 0.8% growth. France also expanded by 0.2%, which was exactly what experts had expected.European Session - Stocks eye positive end to January European stock markets rose slightly on Friday, putting them on track to finish January with a 2.6% gain.If this holds, it will be the seventh month in a row that stocks have gone up, the longest winning streak since 2021. Investors are feeling optimistic because of strong company profits, even though they remain worried about global trade wars and political tensions.Big brands helped lead the market higher; Adidas shares jumped 4% after announcing record sales and a plan to buy back stock, while Swatch rose over 7% thanks to solid growth. However, experts warn that this "New Year excitement" might fade if companies don't keep performing well.On the FX front, the US dollar strengthened on Friday, with the index that tracks its performance against six major currencies rising 0.37% to 96.48.The dollar gained 0.5% against the safe-haven Swiss franc, while other major currencies lost value against the greenback.The Euro dropped 0.3% to $1.1932, and the British Pound fell 0.4% to $1.3765.Additionally, the dollar climbed 0.5% against the Japanese yen, reaching a level of 153.88 yen.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Gold prices crashed more than 6.4% on Friday due to rumors that the next head of the Federal Reserve might prefer higher interest rates.Despite this sudden drop, Gold is still on track to record its best single month of gains since 1982.This historic rise has been driven by investors rushing to buy the metal as a safe place to protect their money during these uncertain economic and political times.Silver and Platinum also experienced massive selloffs with Silver down around 10%.Read More:Wild swings after the FOMC – North American session Market wrap for January 29Bitcoin under price pressure: (BTC/USD) fails to hold the $88000 level. Is a recovery on the way?Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Outlook: Navigating the Current Climate as Gold Taps $5300/oz, Silver Eyes Wedge BreakoutEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts Data is largely thin today with Euro Area GDP released already. Geopolitical developments likely remain key with tariffs and the evolving US-Iran situation worth monitoring.In the US session we will get some high impact data in the form of PCE data which is the Feds preferred inflation gauge.Market participants are also distracted by news from the US, as they wait for President Trump to announce his choice for the next head of the Federal Reserve later today, with Kevin Warsh seen as the favorite. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index has bounced off the 100-day MA on the four-hour timeframe once more. This seems to a be a recurring theme this week.This puts the index looking like it is on its way to fresh highs..Immediate resistance rests at 10243 with a break above eyeing the 10277 handle before the 10300 handle comes into focus.A move lower here may find support at 10178 before the psychological 10000 handle and the 200-day MA at 9973 comes into focus.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, January 30, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
Wild swings after the FOMC – North American session Market wrap for January 29
Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 29 Markets remained timid following yesterday's FOMC event, showing indecisive movements across equities and crypto. Only metals initially rallied, but that momentum faced a severe test during today's session.After Gold reached $5,600 and Silver hit $121, a sudden wave of profit-taking triggered a 10% flash crash across the metals complex.Risk assets struggled in the morning session but rebounded ahead of the strong earnings from SanDisk and Visa. Microsoft suffered its largest daily drop since 2020, closing down 10%! Cryptocurrencies also fell, with Bitcoin breaking below the $85,000 level and dragging the sector lower.The US Dollar finished yet again as the weakest G7 currency. Investors appear unwilling to buy the Greenback until the next Fed Chair is announced. President Trump stated he will make that decision next week.Geopolitical tensions increased as US military assets complete their gathering near the Middle East, while Tehran announced coordinated maritime drills with Russia and China in the Strait of Hormuz. These headlines drove Oil to a 10% rebound over two sessions, reaching highs of $66.56 before correcting. Expect further volatility across all asset classes. Discover:Metals flashing red after record runs – Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) OutlookWTI explodes to $66 as Iran tensions boil – US Oil OutlookBitcoin under price pressure: (BTC/USD) fails to hold the $88000 level. Is a recovery on the way? zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 29, 2026 The picture for Stocks is still very mixed, particularly as the width of certain stocks rallying to new record and those struggling is widening.Watch out for such end-cycle warning signs.Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView You can see how volatile today's session was, particularly around the Opening bell at 9:30 A.M.Sudden outflows in Metals have changed the daily picture for many assets – It's as if a big fund had liquidated its positions. This affected the Cryptos the most but it will most probably hold an impact for weekend risk – Deleveraging at such extremes could make sense, but watch for cascading effects of such flows.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 29, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Today's session in FX was a very confusing one, looking at many up and down movements across all currencies but the ones to keep your eyes on for the coming sessions are the CAD, US Dollar and Japanese Yen.The latter is coming back from a harsh rout throughout the past month. As month-end flows arrive, expect to see further FX volatility.Major Earnings in Tomorrow's session zoom_out_map Earnings Calendar – January 29, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com Tomorrow's session will focus heavily on traditional and energy sectors – Focus on Chevron, Exxon and Verizon, all releasing their earnings during the pre-Open.A look at Economic data releasing throughout today and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Get ready for an active Friday session as the week closes with top-tier growth and inflation data that could spark significant weekend risk flows.Starting tonight, the eyes of the market turn to Japan for a critical price stability check. The Tokyo CPI (YoY) is expected to hold at 2%, while Unemployment is eyed at 2.6%. Any upside surprise in Tokyo inflation will fuel hawkish BoJ bets. This is followed by the Australian Producer Price Index (Q4), expected at 3.5%, which serves as the final inflation puzzle piece for the RBA.But all eyes are turning on tomorrow's Banger session:Eurozone GDP and Inflation (04:00 – 08:00 A.M. ET) will dominate the early morning. Eurozone GDP (YoY) is projected at 0.3%, while Headline CPI (Jan) is expected to tick up to 2.2%. If the bloc shows stagnation alongside sticky prices, the ECB’s "no-cut" stance will be under a true stress test.Later, the North American session offers interesting dynamics for the USD and CAD. Canadian GDP (Nov) is expected to rebound to 0.1% following a previous contraction.But the real test for the US will be the Producer Price Index (08:30 A.M. ET) and the Chicago PMI (09:45 A.M. ET):US Core PPI (YoY) is expected at 2.9%. Any heat here forces a re-evaluation of the Fed’s 2026 path.Chicago PMI is eyed at 44, as investors look to see if the industrial heartland is finally turning a corner.The day wraps with speeches from Fed’s Musalem and Bowman, before high-impact Chinese PMIs (20:30 ET) provide the final word on global growth before the weekend.Safe Trades, keep a close eye on the Middle East!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
Metals flashing red after record runs – Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) Outlook
Silver, Gold were reaching new highs every day but saw a sudden top in today's actionPost-FOMC rally gets tested, we observe if the trend can continueHigh timeframe analysis for XAG/USD, XAU/USD and XCU/USD (Copper) If 2025 was volatile for metals, 2026 is starting with even greater intensity.The global order is fracturing as historic allies clash and new conflicts appear imminent.For metal maximalists, this confirms a long-held thesis. Decades of high deficits create predictable capital flows and supply shortages, which are now driving prices to daily records.As geopolitical tensions rise, investors are rushing to commodities to hedge against supply shortages and inflation, a classic play. zoom_out_map Metals performance in 2026 – Source: TradingView But today's flows feel different.It is almost impossible to predict tops in such extreme, unidirectional trends. Some periods can be more favorable for squeezes. Some others are more favorable for rangebound conditions and selloffs.And such periods tend to change at the beginning of the New Year, at the start of Quarters, Months, or even after FOMC meetings.As the US President announced he will officially announce his decision on the Fed Chair next week, Markets are looking back at yesterday's Federal Reserve decision.Higher rates for longer will be the way to go for the Fed until anything cracks, as the US Labor Market bounced back and the US economy is shining – Can't justify many cuts with that.Today marked a brutal stalling in rallies throughout the Metals asset class.Gold was trading 6% higher than the day before the FOMC, only to give up those gains in a 10% flash crash.Similar flows occurred in Copper, Silver, Palladium, and Platinum, all dropping by 9% to 11%.By the way, Copper spiked to new record highs in yesterday's evening session, reaching $6.52 per lb, but still lacking a more fundamental foundation to persistently elevated prices.You can discover more on Copper fundamentals through this wonderful piece. In the meantime, let's dive right into intraday timeframe analysis for Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) to spot where the session dynamic takes the price action. Is the trend challenged? Read More:WTI explodes to $66 as Iran tensions boil – US Oil OutlookGold falls by 10%! Markets are going ablaze amid US-Iran War fears and post-FOMC flowsBitcoin under price pressure: (BTC/USD) fails to hold the $88000 level. Is a recovery on the way?Gold (XAU/USD) 2H Chart and levels zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 2H Chart, January 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView This morning's action could pose a significant test to the 30% yearly run in the Bullion.The current fundamentals are heavily backing the recent rise, particularly as it is far less extreme than the one seen in Silver for example.Still, when profit-taking occurs so suddenly, traders can look around, question the current state of the Market and reassess if the trend can still hold.Since the flash, prices have rebounded – Hence look at these two levels:Any retest of the all-time high ($5,600) should be followed with further upside. Particularly after a 4H candle close. Next areas of interest could be between $5,800 and $5,900.Any break and close below $5,100 can put the entire 2026 gains in challenge.The 4H 50-period MA can act as a very interesting indicator for short-term momentumHigher Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):Resistance Levels:Current All-time Highs – $5,500 to $5,600Key Fibonacci Projection $5,800 to $5,900$5,400 mini-resistanceSupport Levels:$5,000 to $5,100 Major Psychological Pivot (Morning lows $5,100)$4,788 4H MA 200Pivotal Support $4,400 to $4,500 – Bullish above, Bearish belowMinor Support $3,880 to $4,050$3,200 to $3,500 Major Support$2,600 to $2,800 November 2024 Support$1,800 to $2,000 2022 to 2024 Range SupportSilver (XAG/USD) 2H Chart and levels zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) Weekly Chart, January 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView Evolving in a steep upward channel, Silver is testing its upper bound in high volatility consolidation.Prices have maintained within a $107 to $120 range since Monday, hence trades will look for breakouts either to the upside or downside for future action.Similarly as in Gold, look for a candle close above or below with high volumes to get confirmation.A break lower could go test the Upward channel lower bounds, currently around $92.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):Resistance Levels:$118 to $120 Current ATH ResistanceCurrent Record $121.67Potential Resistance $125 to $127Support Levels:Key Momentum Pivot and Range lows $100 to $104Higher Timeframe Pivotal Support $89 to $922025 HighsMini-Support $80 to $84Major 2026 Support $70 to $72December FOMC Major Support $58.00 to $60Copper (XCU/USD) 2H Chart and levels zoom_out_map Copper (XCU/USD) 2H Chart, January 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView The recent moves are not particularly indicative of a trend-end but recent up and down action may precede doubts to the sustainability of the recent moves.Copper spiked by 10% during overnight trading, corrects by a similar amount and is now holding tight at its January 14 record range ($6.00 to $6.10 Major Pivot).Holding above the Pivot keeps the trend intact and could lead to further highs with the next step between $6.90 to $7.00.Closing below the pivot would hint at a test of the $5.70 to $5.90 pivotal support.Any close below the Pivotal support would compromise the uptrend.Current ATH Resistance $6.40 to $6.50Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Copper (XCU/USD):Resistance Levels:Current ATH Resistance $6.40 to $6.50$6.52 Current RecordPotential Resistance $6.90 to $7.00Support Levels:$6.00 to $6.10 Early Jan 2026 RecordPivotal Support $5.70 to $5.90 – Bullish above, Bearish BelowMinor Support at March 2025 Highs $5.40Major Monthly Support between $4.90 to $5.00 (50-Week MA)Watch out for positioning and fast-paced moves! zoom_out_map This quote is starting to make sense! January is already coming to an end and it has historically been the best month for Gold, Silver and Platinum. Keep a close eye to see if the rally holds the colder February ahead.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
Markets Today: Japan Consumer Morale Improves. Gold Retreats from $5600 Highs, FTSE 100 Eyes Breakout
Asia Market Wrap - Asia Tech Leads the Way Asian tech markets, led by South Korea (+23% in Jan), continue a strong riseThe US Dollar remains shaky, trading near four-year lows after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged as expected.Gold surged to a new record high near $5,595/oz before a pullback to below $5500/oz.The FTSE 100 index is positioned for fresh highs after bouncing off its 100-day moving average from a technical perspective.Asian tech stocks continued their strong month-long rise on Thursday, fueled by investors who are optimistic about company profits and eagerly awaiting Apple’s upcoming financial results.While US and European officials tried to speak positively to support the dollar, the currency remained shaky.The US Federal Reserve left interest rates alone as widely expected, while Chair Jerome Powell talked of a "clearly improving" economic outlook and broad support on the committee for a pause.Powell would not be drawn on whether he would remain as a governor after he steps down as Chair in May, given Trump's efforts to pressure the Fed into more aggressive cuts.In the corporate world, Samsung Electronics helped keep the market mood high by tripling its profits, largely because the race to build Artificial Intelligence is driving up the price of computer chips.Regionally, South Korea’s stock market saw a small daily rise that pushed its total gains for January to a massive 23%, while Taiwan’s market is up nearly 13% for the month.Japan’s market rose only slightly, as it struggled with unstable currency values and rising interest rates.However, not every country did well; Indonesia’s stock market dropped for a second day after warnings that their trading rules weren't clear enough. This lack of transparency caused the investment bank Goldman Sachs to downgrade its view on Indonesian stocks.Most Read: 2026 US Dollar Forecast: How the Fed, Government Spending, and AI Will Drive VolatilityJapan Consumer Morale Hits 21-Month Highs Japan’s consumer confidence index increased to 37.9 in January 2026 from 37.2 in December, but remained slightly below market forecasts of 38.It marked the highest reading since April 2024, as all components strengthened: overall livelihood (36.8 vs 35.9 in December 2025), employment outlook (42.4 vs 41.5), willingness to buy durable goods (30.4 vs 30.2), and income growth (42.0 vs 41.3).A positive for Japan at a time that it is needed with elections on the horizon and concerns around debt, this will be welcome news.European Session - Defence and Energy Companies Lead the Way European stocks recovered on Thursday, helped by rising prices for oil, gold, and silver.This positive turn comes after a bad day on Wednesday caused by weak earnings from luxury brands. Nervous investors are buying gold and silver to keep their money safe, which has pushed metal prices up and boosted the stock prices of mining companies.Energy companies are also doing well because oil prices are rising on fears that the US might attack Iran.Meanwhile, market participants are busy analyzing a flood of company financial reports. They are watching US tech giants for news on Artificial Intelligence and checking European companies to see if they are staying healthy despite global trade conflicts.However, some major German companies struggled; software giant SAP saw its stock plunge after reporting only average sales, and Deutsche Bank shares fell despite announcing its highest profits in years.This dragged down the German DAX Index, which is also suffering because the government admitted the economy is growing slower than expected.On the FX front, the US dollar remained shaky on Thursday as investors continued to worry about American economic policies and global politics.Earlier in the week, the dollar crashed to a four-year low after President Trump appeared unconcerned about its weakness, though it stabilized slightly after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent assured the market that the US still wants a strong currency.Currently, the dollar is trading very close to those recent lows.Meanwhile, the Euro has dropped back slightly below $1.20, as European banking officials are concerned that if their currency gets too strong, it could hurt their economy.In other currencies, the British Pound is hovering near a four-and-a-half-year high, and the Australian dollar hit a three-year peak because investors expect interest rates there to rise next week.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Gold prices surged again on Thursday in the Asian session, climbing close to $5,600 per ounce as nervous market participants rushed to buy the metal to protect their money from global political and economic trouble.Gold rose 2.7% to trade around $5,546, after hitting a new record high of nearly $5,595 earlier in the day; this marks the ninth day in a row that gold has broken price records.There has been a selloff since then with the precious metal reaching lows around the $5475/oz handle in early European trade.The precious metal is still up over $1000 for the month of January.Silver also reached a major milestone, briefly jumping past $120 per ounce before settling back down to around $118. Silver prices have risen more than 60% this year because it is in short supply and investors are looking for a cheaper alternative to gold. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG Read More:The Fed holds rates steady – North American session Market wrap for January 28Apple (AAPL) Earnings Preview: Investors Eye Record Revenue and AI Updates Amidst Market JittersGold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Outlook: Navigating the Current Climate as Gold Taps $5300/oz, Silver Eyes Wedge BreakoutEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts Data is largely thin today with Geopolitical developments likely to remain key. Greenland, tariffs, US-Iran among other discussions remain key drivers of volatility.There is also a host of US companies reporting earnings today which could also stoke volatility with Apple likely to be the main focus. The only US data of note is the initial jobless claims data which have been lower than expected of late..Barring a negative print here, the DXY can work its way higher. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index has bounced off the 100-day MA on the four-hour timeframe once more.This puts the index looking like it is on its way to fresh highs..Immediate resistance rests at 10243 with a break above eyeing the 10277 handle before the 10300 handle comes into focus.A move lower here may find support at 10178 before the psychological 10000 handle and the 200-day MA at 9973 comes into focus.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, January 29, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
The Fed holds rates steady – North American session Market wrap for January 28
Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 28 The Fed kept rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75% in an uneventful FOMC Day.Today's session was very calm across most asset classes (except for one, guess which one) – not too surprising, given the humdrum Press Conference and rate decision.Jerome Powell, whose term as Fed Chair extends only to two extra FOMC meetings (March 18 and April 29), had to defend against many questions about his recent investigation – the rest of his conference did not add much to his previews statements.Metals are exploding higher after the conference as post-FOMC participation held tight for the meeting to end before joining the latest trend; Gold reached a new record high just shy of $5,400 and is closing the session around its peak.. What contributed to the dynamic was Powell's inability to defend the recent move lower in US Dollar, prior to the meeting. Truly, as the Fed Chair insisted, it isn't the Federal Reserve's job, but Gold and Silver really loved that.We'll see if this extends beyond the announcement of the next Fed Chair. The announcement will be coming very shortly.US stocks had no idea of where to go, while the Dollar did strengthen from its past-day tumble, but gave up some of its early-session gains during the Conference, ceding its seat to the Australian, Kiwi, and Canadian Dollars.Regarding the CAD, the Bank of Canada also kept rates unchanged at 2.25%. It was only after Macklem's press conference that the Loonie rallied, as the Governor defended the Fed with intensity and pointed to a more optimistic Canadian economy. Discover:The Fed keeps rates steady – Market Reactions to the FOMCGold hits all-time high: Will FOMC's 'Hawkish Hold' trigger a profit-taking correction?Apple (AAPL) Earnings Preview: Investors Eye Record Revenue and AI Updates Amidst Market Jitters zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 28, 2026 Key Earnings are coming up – expect a lot of volatility in the next few sessions particularly as high volumes return to the Market post-FOMC.Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 28, 2026 – Source: TradingView Surprisingly, most assets remain very hesitant and rangebound during the session, except for the usual suspects.Metals waited patiently for the Press Conference to begin to explode higher – Look at Silver and Gold!A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 28, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs The Swissie gave up a chunk of its previous session win, a bit against the US dollar but especially more against the Antipodean currencies (NZD and AUD).The Greenback gave up some of its pre-announcement gains, but crossed back above the 96.00 level in classic mean-reversion.Major Earnings in Tomorrow's session zoom_out_map Earnings Calendar – January 28, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com Stock traders are ready for a busy session, with the recent earnings releases for Meta, Microsoft and Tesla and tomorrow's high-anticipations Apple and Visa/Mastercard earnings.Check out our recent in-depth Apple Earnings preview right here:Apple (AAPL) Earnings Preview: Investors Eye Record Revenue and AI Updates Amidst Market JittersA look at Economic data releasing throughout today and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Thursday keeps the macro pressure on, with some earnings spice.Europe starts the day with business climate, confidence and sentiment indicators, followed by US jobless claims, productivity and factory orders, while ECB speakers remain in focus. The late session shifts back to Asia, with Tokyo CPI, Japanese labour and retail data, plus Australian PPI, all relevant for the JPY and AUD. On the equity side, Caterpillar, SAP and Mastercard headline the pre-market, while Apple and Visa report after the close, setting the tone for the next session.Safe Trades, keep a close eye on the Middle East!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
The Fed keeps rates steady – Market Reactions to the FOMC
The Fed is keeping rates unchanged at the 3.50% to 3.75% range – Slightly hawkish tone and the US Dollar is strengthening.Changes to the previous statement include a more robust outlook on employment and the economy – This could take out future cuts but for now participants are awaiting for Powell.The votes for the pause are at 10-2 – Fed's Waller and Miran dissented.The pause was 98% priced so not surprising to observe the quiet atmosphere in Markets.You can get access to the detailed report and Fed Statement right here.Nothing surprising is appearing in the Statement – Except for a continued rebound in the US Dollar, volatility is low for now.Powell is currently speaking – Get ready for some high paced shifts in the action.The Fed Chair is mentioning a persistently elevated inflation (Core PCE–Fed's Favorite measure, is stuck at 2.8% while the target is at 2%) as reason to maintain rates flat.Tariffs are still a concern and timing for future cuts is uncertain (no preset course, meeting-by-meeting basis). Nothing new here.Questions are beginning, here's the important part.For now, Powell is rejecting questions on the US Dollar and anything regarding his subpoena.He made mentions of the current rate not looking too restrictive when looking at the economy – neutral at best. zoom_out_map Notable quotes from the Statement – Source: Federal Reserve Pre-Conference Market Pricing zoom_out_map Market Pricing for the March meeting (14:20) – Source: FedWatch Tool zoom_out_map Pre-Conference Asset Board – Courtesy of Finviz Market ReactionsDollar is higher but stalls its ascent zoom_out_map US Dollar (DXY) 15M Chart – Source: TradingView – January 28, 2026 US Stocks wicked higher but are staying flat zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 15m Chart – Source: TradingView Gold is correcting from its record highs zoom_out_map Gold (CFD) 15m Chart – Source: TradingView Other metals are also staying flat/correcting slightlyBitcoin and Cryptos are remaining flat Keep a close eye on post-speech flows which can be quite sudden.Safe Trades and Good luck for Powell!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
Three US tech stocks to watch after Nasdaq 100 bullish breakout above 25,830
Key takeaways Nasdaq 100 momentum has turned decisively bullish: The index broke above its 7-week range at 25,830 and has started to outperform other major US indices on a week-to-date basis, signalling a catch-up phase for US mega-cap tech.VARS points to emerging tech leaders: Amazon, Cisco Systems, and Meta Platforms show improving volatility-adjusted relative strength versus their benchmarks, suggesting a transition from prior underperformance to potential positive alpha generation over the next 1–3 weeks.Technical structures favour further upside, with clear risk levels: All three stocks have reclaimed key moving averages and seen bullish RSI breakouts, but the bullish case hinges on holding well-defined medium-term support zones that would invalidate the recovery if breached. This is a follow-up analysis on our recent report, “Chart alert: Nasdaq 100 bullish breakout (finally) from a 7-week range”, published on Tuesday, 27 January 2026The price actions of the Nasdaq 100 CFD index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) have staged the expected bullish breakout above the former minor 7-week range resistance of 25,830 and rallied by almost 1% on Tuesday, and it has continued to extend its gains on Wednesday, 28 January Asian session with a rally of 0.6% to record an intraday level of 26,170 at the time of writing.The year-to-date laggard among the major US stock indices has started to catch up. So far, the week-to-date performance as of 26 January 2026, the cash market Nasdaq 100 has recorded a gain of 1.3%, surpassing the S&P 500 (+0.9%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.2%), and the small-cap Russell 2000 (-0.1%).Amazon, Cisco Systems, Meta Platforms may outperform Nasdaq 100 This report will highlight three US technology stocks (Amazon, Cisco Systems & Meta Platforms) that may outperform the Nasdaq 100 (in terms of positive alpha generation) filter by technical factors and volatility-adjusted relative strength (VARS).In a quick note on VARS is an indicator that normalises momentum by accounting for a stock's volatility, helping traders identify genuine market strength and avoid misleading signals from high-beta, high-volatility shares.Read more about this guide on volatility-adjusted relative strength: VARS: How to prevent the high-beta trap and find the relevant stocksHere are the technical charts of the three US technology stocks that may generate positive alpha over the medium-term horizon (1 to 3 weeks).Amazon (AMZN) bullish reintegration back above 20-day & 50-day MA zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Amazon medium-term trend as of 27 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) Amazon will report its Q4 2025 earnings on Thursday, 5 February, after the close of the US session.In the past three trading sessions, the share price of Amazon has rebounded and traded back above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages.The volatility-adjusted relative strength of Amazon against the Nasdaq 100 exchange-traded fund has started to slope upwards significantly since 3 December 2025 and traded above its 50-day moving average as well as above its zero line since 26 December 2025 (see Fig. 1).This observation on VARS suggests that Amazon has started to outperform the Nasdaq 100, a transition from its multi-month underperformance that took place from 15 April 2025 to 17 October 2025.In addition, its daily RSI momentum indicator is also evolving in a bullish momentum condition as it managed to stage a rebound from its ascending support and crossed above the 50 level, while still below its overbought region (above the 70 level).Watch the 226.50 key medium-term pivotal support to maintain the bullish bias for the next medium-term resistances to come in at 258.60 (current all-time high) and 275.26 next in the first step.However, failure to hold at 226.50 and a daily close below it will jeopardize the bulls to trigger a multi-week corrective decline to expose the next medium-term supports at 211.40 and 194.70 next.Cisco Systems (CSCO) bullish momentum breakout zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Cisco Systems medium-term trend as of 27 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) Cisco Systems will report its Q4 2025 earnings on Wednesday, 18 February 2026, after the close of the US session.The share price of Cisco has traded back above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages.The daily RSI momentum indicator has just staged a bullish breakout from its prior descending resistance and rebounded back above the 50 level on 26 January 2026.In addition, the volatility-adjusted relative strength of Cisco against the Nasdaq 100 exchange-traded fund has started to slope upwards significantly since 29 October 2025 and traded above its 50-day moving average as well as above its zero line since 29 December 2035.This observation on VARS suggests that Cisco has started to outperform the Nasdaq 100, a transition from its multi-month underperformance that took place from 27 May 2025 to 22 September 2025.Watch the 72.80 key medium-term pivotal support to maintain the bullish bias for the next medium-term resistances to come in at 82.00 (current all-time high), 85.62, and 90.79/91.54 next in the first step (see Fig. 2).On the other hand, failure to hold at 72.80 and a daily close below invalidates the bullish scenario to open scope for a multi-week corrective decline to expose the next medium-term supports at 68.89 and 66.50 next.Meta Platforms (META)'s prior 27% plunge halted at long-term ascending channel support zoom_out_map Fig. 3: Meta Platforms medium-term trend as of 27 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) Meta Platforms will report its Q4 2025 earnings on Wednesday, 28 January 2026, after the close of the US session.The 27% decline seen in Meta Platforms from its current all-time high of 796.25 printed on 15 August 2025 to the 19 November 2025 low of 581.25 has managed to pause right at the long-term secular ascending channel support in place since the October 2022 low.Several positive technical elements have emerged. The price actions of Meta Platforms have formed a “higher low” on 20 January 2025, rallied by around 9.8%, and closed above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages (see Fig. 3).The daily RSI momentum indicator has staged a bullish breakout above its descending resistance and the 50 level, which suggests medium-term bullish momentum may have resurfaced.The volatility-adjusted relative strength (VARS) of Meta Platforms against the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund (SPY) has started to turn up (shaped a “higher low”) above zero and traded back up above its 50-day moving average. These observations suggest the relative weakness of Meta Platforms may be starting to gain back some strength.Watch the 585.77 key medium-term pivotal support, and a clearance above 705.20 intermediate resistance may see the medium-term resistances coming in at 758.40 and 793.70 (current all-time high area).On the flip side, a break and a daily close below 585.77 invalidates the bullish recovery scenario to expose the next medium-term supports at 516.50 and 479.80. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2025 Earnings Preview: A High-Stakes Test of Patience and Promise
Q4 2025 financial expectations are tempered, forecasting steep declines in EPS and Revenue after a Q4 delivery miss.Investor focus has shifted from car sales to updates on the "AI Narrative" (Robotaxi, FSD, Optimus) and stabilizing the Automotive Gross Margin to justify the stock's premium valuation.The Energy Storage division is the current "bright spot," but high volatility is expected for the stock, with immediate support at $380 and resistance at $450.Most Read: FOMC Meeting Preview: Fed To Keep Rates on Hold, Implications for the DXY and GoldAs the Q4 earnings season heats up, all eyes turn to Tesla (TSLA), which is set to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Wednesday, January 28, 2026, after the closing bell. With the stock trading at a premium valuation despite declining automotive fundamentals, this report represents a critical juncture.Like many of its ‘mag 7’ cohorts, market participants are no longer just looking at car sales; they are demanding concrete proof that Tesla’s pivot to AI and robotics is on the verge of financial fruition.What to Expect? Wall Street’s expectations for the headline numbers are tempered, reflecting a challenging year for the EV giant.Earnings Per Share (EPS): Consensus estimates sit around $0.44 to $0.45, representing a steep decline of roughly 30-40% year-over-year.Revenue: Analysts forecast revenue to come in at approximately $24.8 billion, a contraction of roughly 3% compared to the same quarter last year.Deliveries (Already Reported): The backdrop for these financials is the Q4 delivery miss reported earlier this month. Tesla delivered 418,227 vehicles in the quarter, down ~16% YoY, bringing the full-year 2025 total to 1.63 million. This marks the second consecutive year of declining volume, driven by intense competition in China and subsidy withdrawals in key markets like the US and Europe.The Metric that Matters: Automotive Gross Margin. With price cuts having eroded profitability throughout 2024 and 2025, investors will be laser-focused on whether margins have bottomed. Analysts are projecting automotive gross margin (excluding regulatory credits) to fall to approximately 14.3% – 14.8%.If Tesla reports a number significantly below 14% (ex-credits), it could signal that the "price war" is inflicting more damage than expected. If they manage to hold above 15%, it would likely be viewed as a major victory for operational efficiency. zoom_out_map Source: Yahoo, LSEG Key Focus Areas: The "AI Narrative" Shield While the core auto business faces headwinds, Tesla’s stock price has remained resilient, buoyed by the "AI Narrative." The earnings call will likely be dominated by updates on these future growth pillars:Robotaxi and Cybercab Timeline Following the limited service launch in Austin and the Bay Area, investors are demanding clarity on the path to commercialization. With the Cybercab production scheduled for Q2 2026, any delays could severely punish the stock. The market wants to know: When will unsupervised FSD be ready for mass public deployment?FSD Monetization & Subscription Shift Elon Musk’s recent announcement that Full Self-Driving (FSD) will transition to a subscription-only model after February 14 is a major strategic pivot. Investors will look for details on how this affects recurring revenue. With adoption rates currently estimated at around 12%, the goal of 10 million active subscriptions is ambitious but essential for the bull case.Optimus: The Wildcard The Optimus humanoid robot remains a "blue sky" opportunity. While Musk has teased it as a solution to global poverty, production timelines have reportedly slipped from early to late 2026. Concrete updates on manufacturing readiness will be crucial to maintain faith in this long-term catalyst.The Bright Spot: Energy Storage Amidst automotive weakness, the Energy division is a powerhouse. Tesla deployed a record 14.2 GWh of storage in Q4. Expect this segment to do the heavy lifting for revenue growth, potentially offsetting some of the drag from vehicle sales.Finally, capital expenditure (Capex) guidance for 2026 will be a critical indicator of Tesla's long-term confidence. CFO Vaibhav Taneja has already hinted that Capex will "increase substantially" as the company prepares for its next phase of growth.While higher spending may weigh on near-term free cash flow which stood at $4 billion in the third quarter, it is a necessary investment if Tesla is to achieve its goal of structural disruption in the mobility and robotics markets.Implications for Tesla Stock and Nasdaq 100 For TSLA Stock: Volatility is all but guaranteed. The options market is pricing in a massive move of roughly 6% to 12% following the report.Bear Case: If margins compress further and AI timelines are pushed back, the stock could test support levels near $380.Bull Case: A surprise beat on margins, coupled with a firm date for a wide Robotaxi rollout, could propel shares toward resistance at $450 before the $475 and 2025 highs at $498 come into focus.Tesla TSLA Daily Chart, January 27, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Tesla remains one of the most influential components of the major U.S. indices, particularly the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100. As of late January 2026, Tesla's weighting in the Nasdaq 100 (tracked by the QQQ ETF) is approximately 3.8% to 4.3%.Tesla’s forward guidance will act as a bellwether for the broader tech sector's risk appetite. A disappointment here could drag down the Nasdaq 100, fueling concerns that the AI premium embedded in tech stocks is detaching too far from underlying earnings reality.Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart, January 27, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Conclusion Wednesday’s report is less about what Tesla sold in 2025 and more about what it promises to build in 2026. The company is effectively asking investors to look past shrinking car sales and believe in a robotic future.For long-term believers, the dip in fundamentals is a blip; for skeptics, it’s a warning sign. One thing is certain: there will be no middle ground when the numbers hit the tape.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
The Dollar falls to 4-year lows ahead of the FOMC– North American session Market wrap for January 27
Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 27 The session was already a volatile one before Donald Trump decided to spice things up even more right ahead of the North American close.Despite an ongoing rout in the US Dollar, the President said, "The value of the dollar [..] is doing great." The Dollar Index (DXY), which had already corrected by 3% since last Monday, just dropped another percent to 4-year lows, now below 96.00.As expressed in our in-depth US Dollar analysis, a lack of participants to absorb fast-paced swings in supply and demand can accelerate such moves even further – a perfect example of which is today's action. zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 2H Chart – Source: TradingView Pre-FOMC sessions can be boring, rangebound across asset classes, as traders await new Fed developments.Or they can be like today's bonanza, where a dollar melt fuels wild moves around Markets.Metals were once again right in the middle of the intensity, with the precious assets correcting sharply (Gold held well) before they danced to fresh highs around Trump's comments – The Bullion marked another daily record at $5,185.My hunch still tells me today's action could be extreme, leading to swift post-FOMC reversals as Powell attempts to calm things down.Participants are still awaiting the announcement of the next Fed Chair. In the meantime, expect usual volumes to return to the Market after tomorrow's Fed Decision at 14:00 (and rise particularly during the Press conference at 14:30 E.T.).Iran also remains a concern that traders are keeping in mind – WTI (US) Oil reached new 2026 highs in the current session ($62.70) as things could heat up at any time. Discover:Gold pushes to pre-FOMC record, holding the Metals Market – XAU/USD and Metals OutlookTechnical levels for major FX pairs ahead of the FOMC Rate decisionFOMC Meeting Preview: Fed To Keep Rates on Hold, Implications for the DXY and Gold zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 27, 2026 Today marked the pursual of rebalancing Stock flows with the high-expectations Mag 7 earnings approaching by the minute.The Dow Jones is marking somewhat of a top, dropping 1% and giving up the same percentage to the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 on the other hand reached some new all-time highs just today!The Industrial Average did outperform its peers throughout the entire end of 2025, so profit-taking right ahead of the FOMC isn't anything to be concerned of.Still, keep a close eye on tomorrow's Index action after the FOMC and the key earnings releases – Thursday's open and this weekly close will be watched very closely.Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today's cross-asset action was a brutally violent one – Late position closes can have such dramatic effect on price swings, particularly as the US President keeps surprising traders.Metals and Cryptos stand on top of today's movement at a heavy cost for the Dollar – Expect tomorrow to remain very spicy and spiky!A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 27, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs FX volatility is back, and looking at the charts, it doesn't look like it's going away.The Swiss Franc is on top of the board as it reaches 15 year highs against the greenback.All other FX Majors are up above 1% as the dollar cracks well lower. zoom_out_map Today's Major FX Performance by % change – Courtesy of Finviz Major Earnings in Tomorrow's session zoom_out_map Earnings Calendar – January 27, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com Stock traders are ready for a banger session tomorrow: Microsoft, Meta, ASML, A&T are among the major reporters.The most important earnings will be released after the close, so suit up for a long session tomorrow.A look at Economic data releasing throughout today and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. This evening session could be an interesting one for FX traders, particularly Aussie aficionados:Late Tuesday is Asia-focused, with BoJ minutes and Australian CPI/trimmed mean, key for JPY and AUD positioning.Wednesday however is where traders are made.Canada kicks it off with the BoC rate decision, statement and press conference at 9:30 A.M. E.T., followed by the FOMC decision (14:00), statement and Powell presser at 14:30. Expect volatility to spike and concentrate around these windows.Between releases, markets may stay cautious and range-bound as traders avoid heavy positioning ahead of central bank risk, except if more chaos similar to today occurs.Safe Trades, keep a close eye on the Middle East!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
Gold pushes to pre-FOMC record, holding the Metals Market – XAU/USD and Metals Outlook
After Gold reached $5,000, other metals are selling offSigns from previous weeks could point to a larger correction depending on the FOMC outlookTechnical analysis for XAG/USD (Gold), XAU/USD (Silver) and XPT/USD (Platinum) & FOMC trading levels A lot has changed since our last high-timeframe outlook, reminding us that black swan events can affect any projections and expectations in a matter of a headline and a session.The start of 2026 has been marked by chaotic headlines and geopolitical events, which is now a new norm. Some call it the New World Order (or New World Disorder).Last weekend offered quite a show across Markets and journals as the US President decided to threaten additional tariffs to European nations in his latest temper tantrum:Donald Trump reaffirmed his desire to acquire Greenland, sparking widespread concern ahead of the World Economic Conference, held in Davos last week.The immediate reactions were flash US Dollar selloffs and Metals extending much higher in a newfound risk-off move.Despite the headlines materializing into something much less concerning for the world as we know it, the confidence damage from the latest TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) has prolonged the damage to the Greenback and supported the precious commodities.About a week after the headlines, Silver reached the $100 milestone while Gold accelerated to $5,000, not even mentioning the swift rises in Platinum, Palladium, and other metals. zoom_out_map Metals performance since 2026 – Source: TradingView Shortly after reaching the new milestones, however, some divergences between metals have emerged and are turning into quite sudden reversals.Silver topped suddenly at $117 after a 27% weekly explosion, Platinum spiked at $2,884 and now stands 12% lower while Gold holds solidly above $5,000.Ahead of FOMC events, moves can be exaggerated by lower volumes and orders, which can push supply and demand to have a more significant impact on prices – a result of the past two days of action in Commodities and the US Dollar.The most extensive tests for the run in metals are about to unfold, both regarding the Federal Reserve:The first is tomorrow's monthly FOMC meeting (the first of eight in 2026) – a cut is far from priced in (only 3%), so participants will be listening very closely to what Powell says during his press conference.The second, less predictable, is the nomination for the next Fed Chair – Powell's term as Chair ends in May 2026 (but will be able to remain at the Board of Governors).Rick Rieder is now the favorite, not far in front of Kevin Warsh – This only looks at the current Prediction-Market odds.Some geopolitical events could still largely change the picture. zoom_out_map Odds for the next Fed Chair nomination – Source: Kalshi Let's dive right into a technical analysis for Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) and Platinum (XPT/USD) to spot where the current trend stands, just ahead of the FOMC meeting. Read More:Technical levels for major FX pairs ahead of the FOMC Rate decisionChart alert: Silver 13% flash crash has not damaged its bullish trendHow long can the Fed still defend its independence?Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, January 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView Gold easily brushed through any pessimistic outlook as the geopolitical tone worsened yet again.After remaining dormant in the first few trading days of 2026, the Bullion managed a swift push to daily new records, forming a technical Tight Bull Channel.Last week's push was consistent, backed by the changing fundamental environment. As other metals now struggle, XAU is showing why it's the ultimate safe-haven: As its peers are giving up their high gains, it remains strongly above $5,000 (and nearing $5,100 as we speak).A potential US Intervention in Iran is still looming.Tomorrow's FOMC meeting will have a high chance to affect the current flows.A neutral/hawkish Fed (base case) could reduce demand, which may prompt a correction to at least $4,600A dovish Fed (less likely) would pump gold to swift new highs (a quick test of potential resistance around $5,300).The same would follow in other metals.In terms of Fed nominees, some analysts argue that Rick Rieder would be bearish on metals (bullish on Bonds and the USD) while Kevin Warsh would keep the trend as it is.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):Resistance Levels:$5,000 to $5,100 Major Psychological Resistance$5,115 All-time highs and runningKey Fibonacci Projection $5,250 to $5,350Next psychological level at $5,500Support Levels:Preceding ATH Pivot $4,400 to $4,500 – Bullish above, Bearish belowChannel break-retest around $4,800 (+/- $30)20-Day Moving average $4,635Pivotal Support and Channel lows $3,880 to $4,050$3,200 to $3,500 Major SupportSilver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart, January 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView The ongoing parabolic ascension remains historic as the devil's metal elevates to new record highs, up at whopping 27% since January 16!A $10 move is now the new normal in the ongoing reckless squeeze – A note to take into account in case volatility keeps rising from here.The metal reached $117, just shy of $120. After reaching the new record, a flash-sale took Silver to a retest of the $102 level.Shorter timeframes indicate a triangle consolidation as the pre-FOMC action looks undecided.Breaking below its support could point to a swifter retracement, with the $93 to $95 being a reasonable target – A larger retracement could of course occur (watch out for mean-reversion in such violent markets).Any push to new record could easily take the metal to the $125 psychological level.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):Resistance Levels:$114 to $117 Current ATH ResistanceCurrent record $117.75$125.00 Next Psychological ResistanceSupport Levels:$100 Psychological level$93.50 to $96.00 Jan 20 Highs – Current Momentum PivotMini-Support $83 to $85Minor Support $70 to $75 Above Bullish, Bearish belowChristmas lows $70Pivotal Support $48 to $50Platinum (XPT/USD) Daily Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Platinum (XPT/USD) Daily Chart, January 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView Platinum looks poised for a test of its upward-channel lower bound around $2,350 to $2,390 after stalling its rise suddenly.Bears appeared in the metal quickly after Gold reached $5,000 while XPT/USD wicked at $2,882.With the current action more looking like of consolidation/slight correction, it will be very interesting to see if bulls manage to retake the upper hand after the FOMC.A daily close above $2,695 points to new record highsFailing to do so may trigger a sharper correction in the Precious Metal – Look at its 20-Day Moving Average ($2,353).Technical Levels to watch for Platinum (XPT/USD)Resistance Levels:Key level to breach for bulls: $2,695Retest Resistance $2,700 to $2,770Current Main Resistance $2,880 to $3,000Current all-time highs $2,882Support Levels:$2,450 to $2,525 December record Pivot20-Day Moving Average $2,353$2,200 to $2,300 2008 Pivotal Support 50-Day Moving average $2,0002011 All-Time Highs turned Support $1,900 to $1,920Similarly as in our previous Metals outlook, it is essential to remind that participating in such moves can be hazardous as stops can easily trigger in volatile environments.Keep your risk, orders and positions in check while trading these historic markets, particularly as the FOMC approaches and geopolitical turmoil still looms.Watch out for positioning and fast-paced moves! Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
How long can the Fed still defend its independence?
The Fed is facing increasing political pressure, and a pause in rate cuts has become a tool to defend its institutional independence.The labour market remains stable but fragile, supporting a cautious Fed stance despite inflation staying above target.Futures markets do not expect further rate cuts in the coming months, with meaningful easing priced in only from mid year.The risk of a loss of confidence in the US dollar is rising, potentially leading to a self reinforcing depreciation if the Fed’s credibility is undermined. zoom_out_map The US policy interest rate and core inflation measures in the United States (CPI and PCE year on year), source: Bloomberg Rising political pressure on the Fed The Federal Reserve is currently operating in an increasingly tense political environment. Pressure from the administration for further and substantial interest rate cuts has continued to build, turning monetary policy into a political battleground. This conflict recently intensified with legal action being taken against Fed Chair Jerome Powell, widely interpreted as an attempt to exert direct pressure on the central bank’s leadership. Powell’s unusually firm and public response suggests that the Fed is not prepared to yield easily. In this context, a pause in rate cuts can serve not only as a policy decision but also as a visible signal of institutional independence.Maintaining unity among policymakers will be essential in this phase. That task may prove difficult, given the expected dissenting vote from Governor Miran, who has consistently argued for aggressive rate cuts, and increasingly open signals from Governor Bowman in favour of lower interest rates.No rate cut at the upcoming meeting Against this backdrop, the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve is very likely to end with interest rates left unchanged. The Fed has for some time signalled its readiness to pause after three consecutive rate cuts implemented in January. This would leave the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50 to 3.75 per cent. Since the beginning of 2024, rates have been reduced by a total of 175 basis points.According to Powell and many other policymakers, interest rates are now relatively close to a neutral level. This assessment supports a wait and see approach, allowing the Fed to rely more heavily on incoming data before committing to further policy adjustments.Fed policy expectations priced in by the futures market The federal funds futures market is also aligned in its assessment of the likelihood of changes to monetary policy parameters at tomorrow’s Fed meeting. Market pricing clearly indicates that the probability of another rate cut in January is very low. The chances of such a move in March and April are also limited. It is only in June that the market begins to see meaningful odds of a further easing of monetary conditions. zoom_out_map Market pricing of the future path of US interest rates, source: Bloomberg Labour market in the spotlight The labour market has become a central focus of the Fed’s assessment. Despite solid economic growth last year, employment momentum has clearly weakened. Layoffs in federal agencies have added to this slowdown. At the same time, while private companies have largely avoided large scale redundancies, they have also shown little appetite for new hiring.This combination has kept the labour market broadly stable, but the balance remains fragile. In the event of an economic slowdown, conditions could deteriorate quickly. Seen from this perspective, the recent rate cuts, despite inflation remaining above the 2 per cent target, can be interpreted as insurance against a sharper downturn rather than a response to immediate weakness.Recent data offer temporary relief So far, recent labour market data have not confirmed fears of further deterioration. In both November and December, more than 50,000 new jobs were created each month, which was sufficient to prevent an increase in the unemployment rate. This gives the Fed time to assess whether this trend continues at the start of the new year.In parallel, more up to date inflation data will become available in the coming months. This includes the release of the PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, whose publication had been delayed due to last year’s government shutdown. These data will be crucial in shaping expectations for the next phase of monetary policy.When markets stop believing: the rising risk of a self-reinforcing dollar sell off The current situation in the foreign exchange market clearly highlights a risk that was repeatedly flagged already last year. This risk appears to be particularly underestimated by proponents of the so called “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out) strategy, which is based on the belief that President Trump ultimately always backs away from his most confrontational decisions. The problem, however, is that given the unpredictable and often chaotic nature of policy making under the current US administration, there is a genuine danger that markets cross a threshold beyond which a loss of confidence becomes difficult to reverse.From an investor’s perspective, this implies the risk of entering a phase in which even later attempts to soften the political stance will no longer be sufficient to halt negative market dynamics. In other words, markets may stop responding to deescalatory gestures if they are perceived as too late or lacking credibility.Among the potential “critical points” long discussed are the risk of the US dollar losing its safe-haven status and a perceived erosion of the Federal Reserve’s independence in the eyes of market participants. If investors begin to seriously price in a scenario in which these pillars are permanently weakened, dollar depreciation could take on a self reinforcing character. In such an environment, even a retreat from the most controversial policy actions may fail to restore stability, resulting in a deeper and more persistent weakening of the US currency.Recent market developments suggest that this scenario is becoming increasingly plausible. President Trump has indeed attempted to deescalate tensions related to Greenland by stepping back from tariff threats against parts of the European Union, which provided the dollar with only a brief period of relief. At present, downward pressure on the USD has intensified again, underscoring that ad hoc measures are insufficient to rebuild damaged investor confidence. A break above 1.19 in EUR/USD now appears highly likely.EUR/USD has moved back into its medium-term upward channel. The declines seen in late December 2025 and early January proved to be only a temporary episode that briefly altered the direction of price action. For now, the uptrend in the main currency pair appears to remain intact. zoom_out_map EUR/USD exchange rate chart, daily data, source: TradingView Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
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