Euro area inflation increased mainly due to energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions around Iran, while core inflation remained stable or slightly declined.Price pressures have not broadly spread across the economy: food, industrial goods, and services show weaker dynamics, limiting overall inflationary pressure.There is a risk of second-round effects: higher energy costs may gradually feed into other sectors, especially food and services, pushing core inflation higher over time.The European Central Bank is likely to remain cautious, with the baseline scenario pointing to at most one rate hike or simply signaling such a move.Energy-driven surge in inflation On Tuesday, inflation data for the euro area was released. Inflation in the euro area accelerated noticeably in March, rising from 1.9% to 2.5% year-on-year. The main driver of this increase was energy prices, particularly fuels and heating oil, which reacted strongly to geopolitical tensions related to the conflict in Iran. At the same time, core inflation, which excludes energy and food, not only failed to rise but actually edged down slightly to 2.3%. The readings came in slightly below market expectations.Impact of the war limited to the energy sector The data indicate that the increase in inflation is almost entirely due to rising energy prices. Energy price dynamics shifted from negative territory to clearly positive, directly lifting the headline inflation rate. Meanwhile, other components such as food, industrial goods, and services recorded a slowdown in price growth. This suggests that, for now, the conflict has not broadly spread across the economy. Additionally, government measures, such as tax cuts in Spain and Italy, have partially mitigated the impact of rising energy prices. Contributions to Eurozone HICP YoY% NSA, soruce: Bloomberg Lagged effects may push core inflation higher In the coming months, however, higher energy prices are expected to gradually feed through into other sectors of the economy. Rising production costs and fertilizer prices may translate into higher food and service prices, which could, with a lag, lift core inflation. Even if the conflict subsides in the near term, cost effects may persist through the end of the year, potentially leading to a renewed increase in core inflation in the fourth quarter.Limited response from the European Central Bank Despite the rise in headline inflation, the current data remain consistent with the most dovish scenario of the European Central Bank. This means that pressure for aggressive interest rate hikes is limited. Under current conditions, the most likely scenario assumes either a single rate hike or merely a signal of such a move in the coming months.Market implications The current situation shows that inflation in the euro area remains highly dependent on external factors, primarily the energy market and geopolitical developments. As long as inflationary pressure does not spread more broadly across the economy, the monetary policy response is likely to remain moderate. However, in the medium term, the risk of second-round inflation effects remains significant. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Geopolitical risks from the US-Iran conflict sparked a sharp "risk-off" reversal across global marketsBrent and WTI crude surged past the $100 per barrel mark, escalating global inflation expectationsEquities (like the STOXX 600) and precious metals (like gold) retreated, while the US Dollar strengthened as the primary safe-haven asset.Attention now turns to comments from Federal Reserve speakers and tomorrow's highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report.Most Read: Q2 2026 US Indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100) Outlook – Resilience or retracement?Markets were sent into a tailspin on Thursday as geopolitical risks once again took center stage, overshadowing recent hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough. Investor sentiment, which had been tentatively recovering, faced a sharp reversal as the prospect of a prolonged conflict between the US and Iran sent shockwaves across asset classes.The "Trump Wildcard" and Market Sentiment In a prime-time address, President Trump’s rhetoric struck a dual chord—promising to hit Iran "extremely hard" while simultaneously claiming the end is in sight. This ambiguity is precisely what the markets dislike. Without a concrete exit strategy, the risk-off mood is likely to persist.As we look ahead to the North American session, keep a close eye on the $85 level for Brent as a key pivot point, while equity bulls will need a significant de-escalation headline to regain control of the narrative. For now, the "wait-and-see" approach remains the most prudent path as geopolitics continues to overpower fundamental data.Safe-Haven Demand Propels the DollarThe US Dollar regained its footing, firming up as the "safe-haven of choice" while uncertainty gripped the session. We’ve seen this playbook before: when clarity is lacking, the greenback thrives.Oil’s Volatile AscentThe most dramatic reaction remains in the energy sector. Brent and WTI crude surged well over the $100 per barrel mark, a psychological level that will likely weigh heavily on global inflation expectations. President Trump’s recent remarks, while suggesting that military objectives are nearing completion, failed to provide the one thing markets crave most: a definitive timeline.From a technical perspective, if oil sustains its break above $100, we could see a further squeeze toward the $110 handle, especially if supply-side fears continue to dominate the narrative.European shares struggle European equities took a significant hit on Thursday, with the STOXX 600 dropping 1.2% to 589.99 points. The reversal comes as a cold shower for market participants who, just 24 hours ago, were buoyed by hopes of an imminent diplomatic resolution. Instead, the narrative has shifted back to escalation, leaving the index struggling to maintain its weekly gains.The divergence in sector performance today highlights a classic "risk-off" environment:Tech & Miners Under Pressure: Technology stocks led the decline, sliding nearly 3%, while the basic resources sector dropped 2.7% as precious metals lost their luster.Energy Outperforms: Brent crude surged past the $100 per barrel mark—a 7% jump—propelling energy stocks up 1.2%. This remains the only major sector in the green.Aviation Struggles: The spike in fuel costs sent airline heavyweights like Air France and Lufthansa tumbling over 3.7%, as the prospect of prolonged high oil prices threatens margins.Perhaps most concerning for the medium term is the shifting expectation for monetary policy. Before this conflict, markets were pricing in a "wait-and-see" approach from the ECB. Now, LSEG data shows interest rate futures are pricing in three 25-basis-point hikes by year-end.The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains the ultimate wildcard. As long as this strategic artery is blocked, the twin threats of stagflation, rising prices coupled with slowing growth will continue to hang over European markets like a dark cloud.Expect liquidity to thin out as we head into the long weekend, but keep a close eye on the $100 level in Brent. If oil holds these gains, the pressure on European equities and the ECB will only intensify.Gold slides on renewed inflation fears, strong US dollar The yellow metal’s recent rally hit a brick wall on Thursday, as the safe-haven trade faced a violent unwinding. After touching its highest level since March 19, spot gold (XAU/USD) tumbled over 2.8% to trade around $4,622 per ounce. At one point in the session, the carnage was even more pronounced, with prices sliding more than 4% and decisively snapping a four-day winning streak.Gold is currently caught between a rock and a hard place. While geopolitical jitters remain, the lack of a "new" catalyst for escalation, combined with a strengthening Greenback suggests that the recent rally may have run its course for now. Keep an eye on the $4,600 level; it’s the line in the sand for the remainder of the week.The weakness wasn't confined to gold, as the broader precious metals complex saw a sea of red:Silver (XAG/USD): The most volatile of the bunch, silver plunged 5.4% to $71.07, after a stomach-churning 7% intraday drop.Platinum & Palladium: The industrial-heavy precious metals also felt the heat, with Platinum falling 3.1% to $1,902 and Palladium shedding 1.8%.How did FX markets react? The US Dollar reclaimed its throne on Thursday, as the "risk-off" switch was flipped back on across global desks. The Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of major peers, climbed 0.53% to sit at 100.09.The resurgence of the dollar put immediate pressure on the Euro and Sterling, both of which had been enjoying a period of relative strength:EUR/USD: The single currency slid 0.51% to $1.1531. Despite the shift in ECB rate hike expectations we’ve seen recently, the immediate need for safety outweighed the potential yield support for the Euro.GBP/USD: Cable took a harder hit, sliding 0.68% to $1.3216 as the broader flight to quality left the Pound vulnerable.AUD/USD: Often the first to feel the heat when global growth fears rise, the "Aussie" fell 0.69% to $0.6881. As a proxy for global risk appetite, the AUD’s decline underscores the market’s deepening anxiety over the duration of the Iran conflict.Perhaps the most interesting move is in the USD/JPY pair. The Yen traded 0.5% weaker at 159.64, despite its traditional status as a safe haven. This paradox is likely due to the massive interest rate differential that continues to favor the greenback.We are now effectively at the doorstep of the 160.00 handle. This is the widely recognized "line in the sand" for Japanese authorities. In my view, the closer we get to 160, the higher the probability of a "tap on the shoulder" from the Ministry of Finance. Traders should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility here, intervention risk is no longer a "maybe," it's a "when."Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Read More:Markets Weekly Outlook - Middle East uncertainty to dominate ahead of jobs report, Nasdaq 100 at 6-month lowsBitcoin snaps 5-month losing streak: Institutional inflows & trendline break fuel $80k outlookEuro comes out swinging: Can the "Trump Reversal" sustain EUR/USD's upside bias?Economic calendar and final thoughts The European session is quiet today with markets waiting for comments from ECB policymakers.Attention will firmly be on the US session where markets are waiting on Federal Reserve speakers Lorie Logan and Michelle Bowman, though the market is still largely vibing with Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish tone from Monday.However, the real volatility catalyst arrives tomorrow with the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. While this data won't yet reflect the full economic scarring from the war, it will provide a critical baseline of labor market health that will undoubtedly steer the Fed’s immediate policy path.Recent indicators offer a mixed bag: yesterday’s ADP figures surprised to the upside at 62k, while the ISM manufacturing employment index held steady at 48.7. As we head into tomorrow, the stakes are high:Market Consensus: 65kMacro Team Forecast: 60kBloomberg Whisper Number: 40k (notably more pessimistic)I anticipate the unemployment rate will hold firm at 4.4%. Keep in mind that any unexpected spike in joblessness could trigger an outsized market reaction.Finally, with the Easter long weekend approaching, be prepared for thinner liquidity tomorrow and through Monday, conditions that often amplify price swings. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the day - FTSE 100 The FTSE 100 is facing a critical juncture as geopolitical "war jitters" halt its recent recovery. On the H4 chart, the index has stalled just shy of the 200-period SMA (yellow line) at 10,406, a level that remains a major hurdle for bulls.Price action has slipped back toward the 100-period SMA (blue line) at 10,183, which coincides with a key structural support at 10,101.The RSI has dipped from overbought territory, signaling fading momentum. A break below 10,100 could expose the psychological 10,000 mark, while bulls need a clean break above 10,406 to shift the narrative.FTSE 100 Four-Hour (H4) Chart, April 2, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 1 Today’s April Fool's session extended the more hopeful tone seen across markets, following President Donald Trump’s decisive shift in rhetoric around the US–Iran–Israel conflict.The issue is that the initial phase of the rebound could now largely be behind us, as uncertainty has clearly eased on the back of renewed diplomatic intent and a more conciliatory tone from Washington.US Stock benchmarks have rallied close to 5% from their recent lows, breaking above prior month downtrends — a technical improvement that encouraged dip-buyers to step back in.However, into the close, some profit-taking emerged, suggesting that while sentiment has improved, conviction remains tentative.The next key leg for markets likely hinges on Crude Oil continuing to retreat from its recent consolidation near $100, reinforcing the disinflationary narrative supporting risk assets.On the geopolitical front, messaging remains mixed but less aggressive overall. Iranian President Pezeshkian struck a somewhat balanced tone in his latest address, signaling openness while maintaining aggressive positioning – Iran will be the next to decide if it really wants the conflict to end.The US President will reportedly repeat that the conflict would extend for a few more weeks only in an evening – extending beyond the 5-week and April 6 deadlines, but certainly not a worst-case scenarios like Investors had been pricing in recent weeks.He is speaking at the White House at 9PM ET.At the same time, Trump raised concerns among allies by reiterating potential withdrawal from NATO should partners fail to secure the Strait of Hormuz — a critical artery for global energy flows.Attempting to calm tensions, France’s naval leadership indicated that a coordinated post-conflict strategy for the region is actively being developed, but Washington is temperamental and will need to see more.As we move into the final sessions of the week, markets will need further positive catalysts to sustain this rebound.The easing in uncertainty has unlocked the first move higher — but a true continuation now depends on credible diplomatic breakthroughs rather than words alone. Read More:USD/JPY faces major technical pressure from bearish RSI divergence - In-depth FX analysisBitcoin snaps 5-month losing streak: Institutional inflows & trendline break fuel $80k outlookInvestors rush in hope that War resolution isn't an April Fool's – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – April 1, 2026 Today's session wasn't as lushly green as yesterday's, but the turn compared to last week is now clear.Manufacturing and Tech are the two leaders of Wall Street action, with the prior particularly sustaining its gains from the third consecutive ISM Manufacturing PMI beat (albeit being a relatively small one).Tomorrow will once again prove to be an essential test for risk-assets, as traders will need to see more to maintain their excitement.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, April 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView Cross-asset performance wasn't as ecstatic as yesterday, but a second consecutive rally will be a sin of persistent advancement in what last week seemed to be the end of the world.Most risk-assets are up on the day, with Crude and US Dollar tumbling again, but the session is clearly more mixed than yesterday, indicating that the recent bounce is more one of position unrolling rather than full-on buying.With Passover holidays coming and a huge NFP report on Friday, tomorrow's session might also not be so heroic, but progress is still progress!A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, April 1, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Today maintained a more mixed picture in FX compared to yesterday, with the US Dollar slowing its correction at a key level.(Don't forget to check out our recent DXY charts!)One key performer of the past few sessions, to keep your eyes on for Forex aficionados, is the GBP, having suffered dramatically in the past weeks but attempting a steep rebound in recent days.A look at Economic data releasing over tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Important releases will concern Macro FX traders, including tonight's Trump address, Australian Trade Balance data (which will put the high-performing AUD back on the center stage) and the overnight Swiss Inflation report, key to spot whether the SNB has a clear path ahead to prevent going into negative rate territory.And don't forget the classic Weekly Jobless Claims in the US.Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades and Happy Passover for those who celebrate!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

USD/JPY is one of the most reactive pairs to broader geopolitical movements and technical patterns, remaining one of the most favored major currency pairs in FX trading.But in recent years, it has certainly played tricks on traders. Tending to move lower on rate cuts, the irregular FOMC cycle hasn't seen typical responses in the pair – After all, even the Bank of Japan is going through its own irregular hike cycle to levels not seen in 18 years.The Yen is also a favored safe-haven currency in periods of turmoil. While the US Dollar also plays a similar role, this time the Japanese currency could not even withstand the pressure: During the US-Iran conflict, Japan spiked to April 2024 highs (~160.47).Japan is a major importer of energy commodities, with close to 95% of its demand reliant on Middle Eastern exports. Despite having the largest emergency oil reserves among OECD nations, the country still faces immense pressure due to the lack of movement in the infamous Strait of Hormuz. Japan's Major Energy Partners – Source: EIA Due to this elevated dependency, JPY's pre-existing weakness quickly magnified as Japan's main hedgers and importers faced physical barriers to meeting their high demand – having to convert to the US Dollar to purchase Oil commodities, the rise in USD/JPY was nothing short of a self-fulfilling prophecy.So what about now? With the war priced to come to an end in the next few weeks, narrative once again confirmed by President Trump in his many addresses, the US Dollar is itself finding heavy selling pressure, with the Dollar Index forming a major double top ; The Japanese Yen could be a major gainer from such a pattern. USD/JPY and WTI Correlation. April 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView Despite Japan’s core inflation slightly easing, price pressures from war put the BoJ on the center stage for an imminent hike. The issue is that things won't be so easy.With recent Bank of Japan uncertainty, including two key BoJ members concluding their terms in coming months, the Yen's safety could face further volatility amid a lack of further tightening.Keep a close eye on Bank of Japan communications to spot if a decisive rate hike could occur at the next meeting. The Rate decision will take place on April 28th and is currently priced for about 60% of a hike to 1%.Let's dive right into a multi-timeframe analysis for the Gopher – more commonly named, USD/JPY. Read More:Investors rush in hope that War resolution isn't an April Fool's – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateEuro comes out swinging: Can the "Trump Reversal" sustain EUR/USD's upside bias?Bitcoin snaps 5-month losing streak: Institutional inflows & trendline break fuel $80k outlookUSD/JPY Multi-Timeframe AnalysisDaily Chart USD/JPY Daily Chart. April 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/JPY recently bounced to April 2024 highs during a mid-March Crude Oil spike, but has failed to hold its prior highs.Now tumbling right below its 20-Day Moving Average (158.90), the currency pair has formed a failed-breakout; Accompanied by two daily bearish divergences of different magnitudes, its outlook is not turning bearish on the short-term.To confirm, bears will want to see a break below 157.553, recent pullback lows.Let's take a closer look.4H Chart and Technical Levels USD/JPY 4H Chart. April 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/JPY has entered a corrective phase after the initial Monday spike, now evolving in a short-term bear channel after breakout out of its higher timeframe Bull trend.Any test of its 4H 20 and 50-MA could provide interesting points for entries on pullbacks if prices get there (159.24).Resistance levels4H 50-period MA 159.240158.50 to 159.50 2026 Major ResistanceApril 2024 160.00 to 160.40 Major ResistanceJune Mini resistance 160.70 to 161.00Support levelsDecember highs Major Pivot 157.40 to 157.85156.485 4H 200-period MA (bearish below)156.00 Pivotal Support155.00 Mini-Support1H Chart USD/JPY 1H Chart. April 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/JPY has attacked its pullback higher, shortly testing the upper bound of its intraday downward channel.159.00 is a key area of pressure, hence any rejection in the US Dollar could be reflected in an inability to continue higher – In such occasions, two different trades are possibleSell on limit at the 200-Hour MA (~159.24)Sell stop below 158.60 on small size, with further continuation needed to confirm the tradeAny break above 159.60 and daily close above would invalidate the reversal patterns.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The EUR/USD surge toward the 1.1600 handle was driven by a "Trump Reversal" and "war optimism,"The pair is being boosted by a yield differential that favors the EuroInflation realities, including a jump in March Eurozone CPI to 2.5%, are keeping the "hawks" firmly in the driver's seat at the ECB.However, we are likely looking at a capped range between 1.1490 and 1.1620.Most Read: Q2 2026 US Indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100) Outlook – Resilience or retracement?The Euro has come out swinging in early Wednesday trade, capitalizing on a sudden shift in market sentiment that has left the US Dollar nursing its wounds.After a period of intense geopolitical positioning, EUR/USD has surged back toward the 1.1600 handle, driven by a potent mix of "war optimism" and a hawkish recalibration of the European Central Bank (ECB) path.Early Trade: The "Trump Reversal" in Action The primary catalyst for the overnight move was a classic display of the "Trump Always Changes His Mind" (TACO) strategy.US President Donald Trump’s comments suggesting the Middle East conflict could reach a resolution within two to three weeks, coupled with his call for Gulf states to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz triggered a sharp de-escalation trade.From a technical standpoint, we saw the pair dip as low as 1.1446 before staging a rapid recovery to highs of 1.1563 during the late New York session. As we move through the European morning, the pair remains buoyed, trading with a clear upside bias as investors dump safe-haven Dollars in favor of riskier assets.What’s Driving the Pair?Geopolitical De-escalation: The market is betting on a fall in Brent crude and an improvement in global risk appetite. If the war timeline holds, the global economy may dodge the worst-case recessionary scenarios, which is inherently Euro-positive given the Eurozone's sensitivity to energy prices.ECB Hawk vs. Fed Dove: While the Fed appears content to sit on its hands or even lean toward a dovish repricing (with markets eyeing a potential December cut), the ECB is singing a different tune. Hawkish rhetoric from the likes of Schnabel and even the usually dovish Panetta has kept rate hike bets alive. Markets are currently pricing in approximately 63–71 basis points of tightening by year-end, creating a yield differential that favors the Euro.Inflation Realities: March Eurozone CPI jumped to 2.5%, and while core inflation softened slightly to 2.3%, the headline pressure from food and energy is keeping the "hawks" at the ECB firmly in the driver's seat for now.The Road Ahead: Upside Bias or Capped Range? Looking forward, the immediate focus shifts to the US economic calendar, specifically the ADP Employment Change (expected at a soft 40k) and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. A weak jobs print would further validate the idea that the US economy is losing steam under the weight of the energy shock, likely piling more pressure on the Greenback. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) While the "Trump Reversal" has provided the Euro with a much-needed lifeline, the sustainability of this move rests on two factors: the actual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and whether the ECB follows through on its hawkish threats. For now, the path of least resistance for EUR/USD appears to be higher, but in this "sell-everything" environment, volatility remains the only certainty.Potential Move & Key Levels: The momentum has clearly shifted, but we must remain cautious. While the upside bias is intact, i think we are likely looking at a capped range between 1.1490 and 1.1620.Resistance: The 1.1595 - 1.1620 zone remains the major hurdle for bulls. A break above 1.1620 would signal a more structural shift in the pair's trajectory.Support: On the downside, the Euro needs to hold above 1.1520 to keep this intraday momentum alive. Any break back below 1.1450 would suggest that the "war optimism" was premature.EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart, April 1, 2026 Source: TradingView Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Rally likely a “dead cat bounce”: The sharp surge across US indices appears driven by short-covering and quarter-end positioning amid optimism over a potential US–Iran de-escalation, rather than a sustainable bullish reversal.Macro and technical backdrop still bearish: Longer-term charts show bearish reversal patterns across major indices, signalling deterioration in the broader uptrend despite the recent rebound.Weak breadth and key resistance levels cap upside: Market breadth remains fragile with limited participation, while indices are still below critical resistance levels (S&P 500 – 6,730), (Nasdaq 100 – 24,355), (DJIA – 47,460), leaving downside risks intact unless these levels are decisively reclaimed. On Tuesday, 31 March 2026 (the last day of the month and the first quarter), the global markets witnessed a set of magnificent rallies on the four major US benchmark stock indices: S&P 500 (+2.9%), Nasdaq 100 (+3.4%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (+2.5%), and small-cap Russell 2000 (+3.4%), all notched their best daily performance since May 2025.These explosive V-shaped intraday rallies seen in the US stock market were ignited by optimism of a potential de-escalation of the ongoing five-week US-Iran war.Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told EU Council president António Costa that Iran has "the necessary will to end this war" but expects certain guarantees in exchange, a hint that the Iranian leadership may be open to negotiations.Thereafter, towards the end of Tuesday’s US session, US President Trump mentioned that the US-Iran war may end within two to three weeks, suggested the US has accomplished its military goals, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may not be necessary to end the war.On Wednesday, 1 April at 9 p.m. Washington time, US President Trump will deliver an official speech to address the current situation in Iran, according to the White House’s press office.Interestingly, the rallies seen on the major US stock indices can be due to short-covering and potential window-dressing for month-end and quarter-end.Technical analysis suggests a potential mean reversion rebound (a dead cat bounce) rather than the start of a medium-term bullish reversal inflection point. Let’s break it down.Longer-term price actions are bearish Fig. 1: S&P 500 long-term secular trend as of 31 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 2: Nasdaq 100 long-term secular trend as of 31 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 3: Dow Jones Industrial Average long-term secular trend as of 31 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) The 3-month charts of the cash stock indices have formed bearish reversal candlestick patterns at the end of Q1 2026.Both the mega-cap tech-heavy S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have flashed “Bearish Engulfing” candlesticks (see Fig. 1 & Fig. 2), while a 3-month bearish “Shooting Star” candlestick was seen on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) (see Fig. 3).Hence, the appearance of such bearish reversal candlestick patterns on the longer-term charts suggests that the bigger macro picture points to a potential deterioration in the longer-term secular bullish trends of the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJIA rather than the start of a medium-term bullish reversal phase (e.g ex-post US Liberation Day tariffs in early April 2025).Market breadth remains weak and has not reached capitulation levels Fig. 4: Percentages of S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100 stocks above 20-day, 50-day & 200-day MAs as of 31 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) The percentage of component stocks for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 that are trading above their respective 50-day and 200-day moving averages after Tuesday’s rally is still below 50% (see Fig. 4).The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above 50-day and 200-day moving averages stands at 24% and 47%, respectively. The prior capitulation levels were at 5.2% (above 50-day MA) and 17.7% (above 50-day MA) on 8 April 2025, which led to the ex-post US Liberation Day tariffs’ bullish reversal.The percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks above 50-day and 200-day moving averages stands at 21% and 44%, respectively. The prior capitulation levels were at 4% (above 50-day MA) and 16% (above 200-day MA) on 8 April 2025, which led to the ex-post US Liberation Day tariffs’ bullish reversal.Let’s now decipher the medium-term trends of the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average.S&P 500 – Still below 200-day MA with RSI capped by resistance Fig. 5: US S&P 500 CFD index medium-term trend as of 1 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView) The medium-term downtrend phase of the US S&P 500 CFD index (a proxy of the S&P 500 E-mini futures) remains intact since its current all-time high of 7,020 printed on 28 January 2026.Watch the 6,730 key medium-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 6,340 increases the odds of another potential bearish impulsive down move sequence to expose the next medium-term supports at 6,120 and 5,925 (see Fig. 5).On the other hand, a clearance above 6,730 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up towards 6,880 and even 7,020.Nasdaq 100 – Double Top bearish breakdown neckline acting as key resistance Fig. 6: US Nasdaq 100 CFD index medium-term trend as of 1 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView) The current price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) are still trading below the “Double Top” bearish breakdown neckline and 200-day moving average.The daily MACD trend indicator is still showing no clear signs of a trend change as it continues to hover below the centreline.Watch the 24,355 key medium-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 22,680 increases the odds of another potential bearish impulsive down move sequence to expose the next medium-term supports at 22,135/22,088 and 21,438/21,293 (see Fig. 6).On the flip side, a clearance above 24,355 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up towards 24,835 and 25,215/25,455.Dow Jones (DJIA) – Resting below the intersection point of the 20-day MA bearish crossover below the 200-day MA Fig. 7: US Wall Street 30 CFD index medium-term trend as of 1 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView) The rallies seen in the US Wall Street 30 CFD index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average E-mini futures in the past three sessions have led its price actions to rest just below its 20-day and 200-day moving averages (see Fig. 7).In addition, the 20-day moving average has flashed out a bearish crossover condition below the key 200-day moving average.Watch the 47,460 key medium-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 44,975 increases the odds of another potential bearish impulsive down move sequence to expose the next medium-term supports at 43,935 and 43,290/42,935 (see Fig. 6).On the flip side, a clearance above 47,460 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up towards 48,350 and 49,750. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 31 Today's month-end session was gladly welcomed by ever-ecstatic investors.Yesterday's session really materialized into a powerful move to the upside across global assets as the narrative took a significant turn.President Trump gradually pointed towards a lower resolve to maintain the defense of the Strait of Hormuz, indicating that European and Gulf countries would be the ones in place to take car of the quintessential strategic route for Oil tankers – Currently the most important 10km region on the entire planet.As Iran's President Pezeshkian confirmed, the talks are indeed ongoing and guarantees are demanded in order to move forward towards a more sustainable peace process.As indicated in our fresh WTI in-depth analysis, odds for a ceasefire by April 15 are still stuck around 25%, but this doesn't bar the way for de-escalation. This comes as a wonderful surprise to Participants which were gradually pricing for a long-lasting conflict.The situation is still far of being entirely resolved, with conditions for a deal still fragile, "trust levels at zero", as said by Iran's FM Abbas Araghchi, but just the simple idea of less uncertainty for the time being is a welcomed gift for Markets.Global assets exploded in today's action, with Silver up 7%, Gold up by 3%, Stock Indexes across the world following suit and Brent down 3% on the other hand.Today's strong moves could also have been magnified by the Month-End position closures, hence tomorrow will be an important test:Continuation of today's optimism hints at further continuation and a deal properly taking placeRejecting today's highs would mark the contrary, with doubts re-gaining the scene and more pain aheadA heavy fleet of US Marines are near and could still conduct a large operation if the narrative soured. Keep your eyes on this in case you see a swift turn in Markets.Even when the conflict is done, traders will still have to be extremely careful with what happens in the Strait of Hormuz and Oil prices. Read More:Brent-WTI falls to 2026 lows! Oil corrects as War resolution nears – WTI OutlookGold (XAU/USD) rallies 3%, eyes acceptance above the $4600/oz handle for bullish momentum to continueStocks explode as the US-Iran war may come to an end: Daily US Stock Market outlook and a step back on recent developmentsUSD Double Top as Markets slowly price end of War – US Dollar Index (DXY) outlookStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 31, 2026 Today's was a long-hoped dream for dip-buyers, particularly as the early morning bounce saw significant continuation.The Market was overtly ecstatic in today's rebound, hence continuation will be mandatory to avoid burnt wings and rough stops – What is sure is that we haven't seen such optimism in a long time.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 31, 2026 – Source: TradingView Asset correlations have been a powerful tool to assist traders to navigate the past month's volatile conditions.And today remained heavy on this setup, which may abate as traders move on, with virtually all assets exploding higher except for the Crude and US Dollar couple.The dynamic won't be so straightforward if Oil remains above $100, so keep a close eye on the commodity!A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 31, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs European and Risk-currencies have done what they did best when risk-off flows abate, having rallied significantly from the turn of events.Watch out for a lack of continuation if WTI remains elevated – Who takes care of the Strait of Hormuz going forward will be essential to track FX flows.The Euro did see significant relief today, hence, keep track of EUR/USD and whether or not it continues its ascent in coming days!A look at Economic data releasing over tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tomorrow's releases will be heavily focused on the US with Retail Sales and Manufacturing PMIs, with geopolitics once again taking the center stage for other macroeconomic movements.Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil tumbles as traders are getting more convinced that the conflict is heading towards its endThe Brent-WTI spread erases its entire War premium, hinting at softer conditions in a stressed MarketExploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity Traders are now slowly preparing for an end to the US-Iran conflict after 5-weeks of ceaseless, methodical attacks from the US-Israel coalition on IRGC military targets.The conflict has caused significant damage and volatility in global Markets, dampening equities and overall risk assets and even hurting traditional safe havens like Metals and bonds amid a rise in inflation expectations.Precious Metals like Gold actually began to trade as if they were typical risk assets during the war, as flagged in a HSBC piece – We are indeed in a new age for Markets!As always in the Middle East, Crude Oil is right in the center stage, having bounced about 50% since February 27, the Friday that preceded the commencement of the conflict.As the war began, the Brent-WTI spread, a historical indicator of energy commodity Market stress, had spiked to $18.65, levels unseen since February 2019 (excluding the extreme COVID spikes).This spread is now rushing back towards its yearly and pre-war lows. Brent-WTI Spread – Source: TradingView. March 31, 2026 This indicates a large easing in narrative, at least, which also could compromise Trump's threat to let European and Gulf nations take care of the Strait of Hormuz passage after the military operation.In any case, the spread easing in such a manner could further ease tensions in the Energy Market, as the two enemy-counterparties confirm they are engaged in more serious talks.China and Pakistan have formulated their own 5-point Peace Plan for a smoother, peaceful process ahead. That same plan wasn’t even criticized by President Trump in his daily address – given how verbal the President typically is, this was a first- and Markets took this as a sign of significant progress, boosting Equity Indexes by 2.50% each in the afternoon session. Odds for a US-Iran Ceasefire by April 15 – Source: Polymarket. March 31, 2026 For now, Polymarket odds for a ceasefire by April 15 are still only around 25%. Still, a lack of a ceasefire doesn't prevent a truce – how volatile that truce will be and under what conditions will dictate whether more consistent upside is warranted in risk assets.Upcoming headlines and developments will have to be contrasted heavily by Participants, particularly as expectations from here will be elevated, and today's session moves might be exaggerated by the Month-End flows.As the situation becomes clearer as the week continues, let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of WTI (US) Oil to identify levels of interest and put the odds in the trader's favor to capitalize on the situation. Read More:Stocks explode as the US-Iran war may come to an end: Daily US Stock Market outlook and a step back on recent developmentsUSD Double Top as Markets slowly price end of War – US Dollar Index (DXY) outlookGold (XAU/USD) rallies 3%, eyes acceptance above the $4600/oz handle for bullish momentum to continueUS Oil Multi-Timeframe AnalysisWTI Daily Chart WTI Oil Daily Chart – March 31, 2026. Source: TradingView WTI's steep rise in previous sessions has seen a significant stop with the turn in narrative.Testing $107.80 in the overnight trading, the key resistance was then rejected, but the price action isn't so clear yet.Tumbling to $100 and reverting higher, traders will want to see a clear rejection to the downside to assume a clearer path ahead. The past two daily candlesticks have formed a Tweezer top, which coincides with a turn in RSI plus a bearish RSI pattern, all pointing to some downside.But timing will be important to avoid getting tricked by a sudden change in atmosphere – Waiting for a clear break below today's lows could be a better way to avoid getting stuck short.WTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels WTI Oil 4H Chart – March 31, 2026. Source: TradingView As seen in the intraday charts, recent candles are more pointing towards a very hesitant price action that a decidedly bearish reversal – In such setups, waiting for breakouts with Stop orders could prove a more efficient strategy.For bears, watch for a clean break below $100, with extra confirmation below $96.64 (4H 50 MA) and $92.70 for an final conflict support break.Bulls will want to see an extension and close above $108 to head back towards $116.WTI Technical Levels:Resistance Levels$106 to $108 June 2022 Resistance (morning highs)$110 psychological level2022 and Monday highs $116 to $120Ukraine War Spike $120 to $124Support Levels$98 to $100 Momentum Pivot$96.64 4H 50-MAPivotal Support $93.00 to $95 $87 to $90 mini-Support$82.80 to $84 Key SupportWar flows Pivot $65.00 to $66.001H Chart and action levels WTI Oil 1H Chart – March 31, 2026. Source: TradingView The short-timeframe is more prone to fakeouts, particularly as headlines can quickly change the narrative, but for the most eager and impatient traders, a 1H Head and Shoulders pattern in arising, pointing towards $96.66 (200-Hour MA).A rally back above $106 would void the technical pattern.Safe Trades and keep your eyes on the news!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar enjoyed a very consistent performance since the onset of the US-Iran conflict but now forms a double-topWith Traders starting to price a resolution for the conflict, the Dollar could lose some steam, particularly at the top of its rangeUS Dollar Index (DXY) in-depth Technical Analysis Timing Markets is a difficult task, absolutely key to generating as much profit as possible from important fundamental setups.It is indeed important to be timely with your trade to ensure that entries remain favorable and the risk-reward remains positive – but an essential part of timing is not being too early.The US Dollar has been on a significant uptrend since the end of the January FOMC (as forecasted here) and is now testing the extremes of its gigantic 95.50-100.50 range.This is where timing entries is a daunting task – one could just begin shorting the US Dollar as soon as it reaches its highs, but when double tops occur, they often come to get your stops.That is when confirmation steps in to provide even more favorable entries and timing – It can be Fundamental, with a change in narrative (something that is kind of emerging as of late), or a confirmation in Technicals. Sometimes it can actually be both, and this is what could now be offered in the US Dollar.Nothing is sure in Markets, particularly during volatile periods when breaking news can change the entire picture in a matter of a few seconds – but at least, some setups can look better than others.As we speak, the US Dollar is rejecting its War highs for the third consecutive test, forming a Double Top – Both the US and Israel are slowly looking to turn the page on the full month of operations, particularly with the Trump Administration considering ending the conflict without taking control of the Strait of Hormuz to punish against European and Asia allies that did not manifest their appetite for such operations (and even went against it, like Spain).The reversal, if it does arrive, may not unfold in one session but progressive waves as the narrative slowly switches. Crude Oil prices still dictate general Market flows, so its drop will have to be the extra confirmation signal.We’ll explore a few scenarios for a potential large reversal in an in-depth technical analysis of DXY. Discover:Markets Today: China factory activity surges, French inflation jumps, FTSE 100 eyes further gain as data releases lie aheadIs the War really reaching its end? Assets bounce despite Oil rally – Market CheckQ2 2026 US Indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100) Outlook – Resilience or retracement?Dollar Index (DXY) Multi-Timeframe AnalysisDaily Chart Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart. March 31, 2026 – Source: TradingView While headline chasers are getting fooled by the latest dedollarization and end of the World narrative, as traders it is essential to take a step back, mute the noise, and see if any real trend is emerging to avoid falling into Confirmation Bias loops and miss on significant opportunities.For example, the same happened after the pre-FOMC Trump-led US Dollar flash-crash, where the world of Finance could have swore as a whole that the USD was finished.Yet here we are at 6-month highs. The significant range established after the July 2025 TACO Dollar lows is still holding (despite having wicked above and below).Now reacting at its highs, it will be interesting to see if a downside reversal occurs from here, particularly after the double top and a Daily RSI bearish divergence.4H Chart and Technical Levels Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart. March 31, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dollar is officially rejecting its 100.50 War highs, forming the famous double top, with momentum quickly shifting.As long as prices remain within the 100.00 to 100.50 Zone, the action is more balanced than bearish, hence it could be a decent time to look around Markets for interesting setups – Two elements to look for are:Are buyers returning at short-term support levels ?(4H 50-MA & January Uptrend ~ 99.70)If they don't, what is the most optimal FX pair to trade to capture the potential reversal?In that event, look for trades expressing this view in other FX pairs (AUD/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD?)And don't forget that such reversal don't occur in one swift move! They also have pullbacks and more.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highsWar Highs 100.544 (Double Top)May 2025 Resistance 101.30 to 101.80Major Weekly Resistance 102.50 to 103.00Support Levels99.70 mini-support99.40 to 99.50 Momentum Pivot (bearish below)98.70 to 99.00 Support98.00 Key Mid-Range SupportSupport 97.40 to 97.602025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.001H Chart Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart. March 31, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is now slightly mean-reverting after quickly reaching oversold 1H RSI levels – look for a small retracement for entries on Major FX pairs.Psychological levels tend to attract decent reactions in FX, returning to the 50-hour MA (100.30) would provide an optimal short-USD setup, as long as the narrative doesn't switch again and the war drags on for much longer.To void the short-setup, watch if bulls manage to drag the Dollar above 100.55 and close above it on the daily.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

We are now officially entering the fifth week of the US-Iran-Israel conflict, which sent bombs flying all over the Middle East, but more concerningly, sent Global Assets flying all over.The main culprit was Crude Oil prices – rallying about 50% since its Monthly open, the commodity hasn't failed to contribute its fair part in overall volatility.After sustaining a broad, inverted correlation with most asset classes and currencies, this trend appears to be abating – Traders are now really looking to relax their preceding angst with the US entering into more consistent negotiations with their enemy-counterpart in the Islamic regime, and Israel also prepares for final waves of attack to dampen the military reconstruction efforts.Black Gold is now at a spot where uncertainty is priced in, leaving only a premium for the proper lack of supply that would traditionally go through the infamous Strait of Hormuz.Brent has been stuck above $110 since the weekly open, and WTI remains well above $100. WTI 4H Chart – Source: TradingView. March 30, 2026 Key levels to watch for WTI:To the upside:$106 ~ Closing above could maintain further bullish pressure$110 ~ Psychological level not seen since the mid-March spike$120 ~ War highs, above this, things could get catastrophic for the economyTo the downside:$100 ~ Correcting back below would boost the current ease in sentiment significantly$90 ~ Short-term momentum turns bearish for the commodity, Markets should pick up their rebound$85 ~ Any move below this would confirm that the situation is indeed not worsening, best sign for Markets – Every asset becomes a buy on a daily close below. Oil rising isn't such a surprise to most of us, but the more peculiar change in today's flows comes from the fact that at a despite this rise, Bonds are rallying (yields lower – implying lower inflation expectations), Stocks bounced, but seem to remain under pressure (at least, not worsening for now) and Metals have formed what a more consistent bottom. An Unfamiliar Session in Markets – Courtesy of Finviz If anything was dampening Market mood throughout last week, it was the fact that failed diplomatic attempts could not generate a much larger continuum of tranquility.But if the current, more realistic, conversations really turn into something positive, the 5-week period could be precise, and next week could be a great opportunity to join a bounce.It is, of course, very early to say, considering that the US President and his Administration are so unpredictable, and it would be a mistake to assume that the Iranian regime is not.In any case, month-end is approaching and could bring significant changes to the flows Participants have been accustomed to throughout this long and crazy March.US Treasuries are rallying, the most optimistic sign US Bonds (and Fixed Income in general) were among the worst performers across all asset classes this month, under intense pressure from rising inflation expectations.With the tumble in Fixed-Income (and rising yields), Bond Vigilantes were pricing out all types of Rate Cuts across the globe, implying that the repercussions of rising Oil would prevent lower rates and even lead to some Monetary Policy rises (as seen in Europe and England).Why is it important to check bonds in this environment? This asset class is the most reactive to risk news and inflation expectations – If they ease, other assets will be subject to much less constraints (as Stocks tend to see delayed bounces in such an environment). US Bonds since beginning March – Courtesy of Finviz Despite their morning bounce, they still have a lot to recover, and their bounce is proving challenged by the fresh bid in Oil.For the 30Y Yield, keep a close eye on 5.00% to the upside, 4.75% to the downside.For the 2Y Yield, 4.03% to the upside (+ hikes priced in) and 3.75% to the downside.Metals rebound but still under pressure Metals performance since last Monday – Source: TradingView Metals have indeed marked their bottom, but the rest will be to see if they can actually maintain a higher path for longer.Their nature as diversification asset hold them in the middle of two different narratives –Are they going to rally from the lower hike pricings?Are they going to resume their drops from the drop in uncertainty?In this mix of fate, it seems that rangebound conditions may prevail in the precious commodities until a breakout follows.Don't forget to check out our in-depth Technical Analysis for Gold right here.The US Dollar remains on top of its game Despite the easing narrative, the US Dollar remains a top-dog in this weekly open.The Dollar Index is pointing towards a breakout, but failing here may also form a double-top, so expect this monthly close to be a significant indicator for what's to come for FX Markets in April. Dollar Index 4H Chart – Source: TradingView. March 30, 2026 The direction is for now difficult to predict, with the latest rally being very persistent – So the best is to wait for confirmation.Rejecting back in the 100.30 resistance should see continuation to the downside.Breaking and closing on the month above 100.60 could lead to a larger USD breakout. The current FX Session – Courtesy of Finviz Markets are repricing an imminent FX Intervention for the JPY, prompting its outperformance in today – Apart from it, the US Dollar is flawless in its daily rally.Month-end flows (throughout the session tomorrow) will be a preview of what's to come!Safe Trades and keep track of the conflict progress throughout this week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The protracted Middle East conflict is the primary driver of market volatilityEuro Area economic sentiment tumbled, driven by a spike in inflation expectations that creates a "stagflationary"Brent crude is surging toward a record monthly gain on supply fears, while the US Dollar (DXY) is near 10-month highs, overshadowing Gold and pressuring the Yen and commodity currencies.Most Read: GBP/USD Chart Alert: Bull flag pattern in play ahead of retail sales dataMarkets have started the week on a tentative note with Asian stocks sliding as investors dug in for a protracted Gulf conflict.The geopolitical landscape remains the primary driver of market volatility this week as the Middle East conflict enters a more dangerous phase, threatening both energy stability and global risk appetite.On the fundamental front, President Donald Trump’s suggestion that the US could seize Iran’s Kharg Island has sent a shudder through the energy sector, as the facility remains the lifeblood of Iranian oil exports; however, the President’s simultaneous nod toward a potential ceasefire adds a layer of "fragile optimism" that markets are struggling to price accurately.This uncertainty is compounded by the Houthi’s first direct strikes on Israel, a development that underscores Iran’s significant leverage through its control of the Strait of Hormuz and its ability to disrupt critical supply chains.For Asia, which remains acutely sensitive to Middle Eastern energy flows, the impact has been immediate and bearish. From a technical perspective, the Nikkei 225 (.N225) has seen its losses for March accelerate to nearly 13% after shedding another 3.4%, while the KOSPI (.KS11) and the broader MSCI Asia-Pacific index (.MIAPJ0000PUS) continue to break lower, down 3.0% and 1.3% respectively.With cross-market correlations tightening, the question for traders now is whether these support levels will hold or if the mounting pressure on the US to escalate will trigger a deeper correction across the region.Euro Area economic sentiment takes a hit The Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) tumbled to 96.6 in March, missing the 96.8 consensus as Middle East tensions reignite inflationary fears.The fundamental shift is clear: consumer confidence collapsed to -16.3, driven by a massive 17.2-point spike in inflation expectations. While the services sector held steady at 5.0, retailers felt the pinch, dropping to -7.2.The most concerning data for the ECB is the manufacturing sector; despite a marginal sentiment improvement to -7.2, selling price expectations jumped 7.4 points to 19.7. This suggests businesses are already preparing to pass higher costs onto consumers. Regionally, the pain was concentrated in France (-3.7) and Spain (-2.4), while Germany remained flat.From a trading perspective, this "stagflationary" mix of plunging confidence and rising price pressures complicates the path for rate cuts and clouds the Euro’s technical outlook.European shares edge higher after the open European indices staged a cautious recovery on Monday, with both the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 gaining 0.3% as markets attempt to navigate a complex geopolitical backdrop.The primary narrative remains centered on the Middle East, where surging oil prices hitting levels not seen since 2022 are creating a dual-edged sword for central banks.While energy costs are inherently inflationary, there is a growing fundamental shift in market sentiment: investors now bet that the potential "economic drag" from these costs may actually handcuff central banks, limiting their scope for further rate hikes.Technically, we are seeing a clear divergence in performance; Utilities and Energy are leading the charge, with TotalEnergies (+1.9%) and Iberdrola (+2.1%) seeing strong inflows. Defensives like AstraZeneca (+1.1%) and Nestlé (+1.4%) also offered support, while high-beta and luxury names like Hermès (-0.4%) and UBS (-0.9%) faced selling pressure.From a trading perspective, the key takeaway is that while the headline indices are green, the "cracks" are visible in the banking and luxury sectors, suggesting that risk appetite remains tethered to how the US manages the escalating friction with Tehran.Commodity markets The energy complex is currently witnessing a historic squeeze, with Brent crude surging 2.8% to $115.77 and eyeing a record monthly gain.This follows a massive 4.2% jump on Friday, as the fundamental risk premium surrounding Iran continues to intensify. Similarly, WTI has cleared the $101 level, gaining 1.9% today after a staggering 5.5% rally in the previous session.From a technical standpoint, the momentum in oil is purely driven by supply-side fears as the market prices in a potential total disruption of Iranian exports.In the metals space, Gold managed a 1% bounce today on "bargain-hunting," but the broader picture remains decidedly bearish. The precious metal is currently on track for its worst monthly performance in nearly two decades, having plummeted over 14% in March.This aggressive sell-off was catalyzed by a rampant US Dollar, which has gained more than 2% since the initial US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28.Despite today’s minor recovery from the $4,097.99 lows, the technical damage to Gold is significant, as the safe-haven bid has been completely overshadowed by the "King Dollar" trade and soaring Treasury yields.How did FX markets react? The US Dollar continues its relentless charge, hovering near 10-month highs as it prepares to lock in its most aggressive monthly gain since last July. The Dollar Index (DXY) remains firm around the 100.19 mark, having touched a mid-month peak of 100.54—its highest level since May 2025.From a fundamental perspective, the Greenback is cannibalizing global risk appetite as traders price in a "geopolitical premium" that shows no signs of dissipating.The Japanese Yen is back in the danger zone, languishing near the critical 160 per-dollar handle. This level is particularly significant as it marks the weakest point for the Yen since July 2024, a threshold that previously triggered direct intervention from Tokyo.While the Euro found a minor technical floor near $1.15 on the back of ECB rate hike expectations, the broader trend remains bearish with the currency on track for a 2.5% monthly decline.The "commodity currencies" are bearing the brunt of this Dollar dominance. The Australian Dollar slipped 0.3% to $0.6851, accelerating toward its steepest monthly drop since late 2024, while the New Zealand Dollar has plummeted 4.4% in March alone.For traders, the technical setup suggests that as long as the US maintains its hawkish stance amid Middle East tensions, the path of least resistance for the majors remains to the downside.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Read More:Markets Weekly Outlook - Middle East uncertainty to dominate ahead of jobs report, Nasdaq 100 at 6-month lowsGBP/USD Chart Alert: Bull flag pattern in play ahead of retail sales dataPeace hopes? – North American Session Market Wrap for March 23Economic calendar and final thoughts The European session will bring us German CPI data later today.This week, all eyes shift to the US labor market for the next major fundamental catalyst, with a heavy data slate including JOLTS, ADP, and the highly anticipated March Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP).The market consensus currently sits at a modest +60k for job growth with the unemployment rate holding at 4.4%. From a policy perspective, a print in line with these expectations would likely cement the narrative of Federal Reserve tightening as a necessary response to the ongoing energy shock.However, any technical "miss" or surprise weakness in the headline numbers could finally trigger a much-needed correction in the Dollar’s vertical ascent.The DXY is once again flexing its muscles above the 100.00 handle, and a retest of the critical resistance zone at 100.25/50 appears imminent this week. Unless we see a definitive de-escalation in rhetoric from Tehran, the fundamental "fear bid" makes it difficult to envision the Greenback retracing its March gains in the near term.On the intraday front, traders should keep a close watch on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is scheduled for a moderated discussion at 4:30 PM CET. Any hawkish tilt in his commentary regarding the energy-driven inflation spike could provide the fuel needed to clear that 100.50 resistance level.Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index The UK 100 remains in a clear bearish structure on the H4 timeframe, trading well below its 50 and 200-period SMAs. After a aggressive sell-off earlier in March, the index is currently battling psychological resistance at the 10,000 mark.Technically, a failure to decisively reclaim 10,000 keeps the door open for a retest of recent swing lows near 9,816. While the RSI shows a slight bullish divergence following "BULL" signals, momentum remains tepid.A sustained break above 10,100 is required to shift the bias toward the 10,225/269 resistance zone. Until then, the path of least resistance remains tilted to the downside, with the 9,661 level serving as the next major support floor if 9,800 fails.FTSE 100 Four-Hour Chart, March 27, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 27 Today's session marked the interest payment from Markets to borrowed tranquility throughout the beginning of this week. And the price is hefty. After the first few trading days of the week, it could have been easy to say that blue skies are ahead and current prices are gifts that any investor would take, amid historically elevated Markets.But there is no free lunch in this economy, and Participants made global assets pay for this fragile rebound. President Trump welcomed Investors with a soft message at the beginning of the week, then delivered a sharp shift in tone regarding Iran in his first weekly Truth Social Post.A 3% prompt rally across all Stock Markets and overall Markets followed, accompanied by a drop in WTI to $88, but the effect was merely temporary; the slow, then accelerating, grind higher that followed in Black Gold reshaped this positive trajectory for the worse.Gradually, people realized that the optimism from the White House would not have been realistic enough to bring about a real end to the ongoing conflict. As the week ended with further fears of a prolonged conflict, Stocks got hit with a nasty hangover. S&P 500 4H Chart (CFD) – Source: TradingView After all, without a concrete resolution to the still-blockaded Strait of Hormuz and a real, long-term guarantee that the conflict won't escalate further, Markets cannot rally.Traders need trust to return to persistent buying of already elevated valuations. Particularly given that Wall Street fiercely held the initial rise in WTI and the US Dollar, it could only be the beginning of much more pain ahead.Of course, a return to positive sentiment will only be contingent on the conflict not extending much longer, as more disruptions in Oil prices can now be expected to precede a large drag on global economies.It could be too early to say that inflation effects will actually lead to Central Bank hikes, something that Markets fear like the Boogieman – but even if they don't, the strain on economies from higher petrol prices amid a still-growing but stagnating economy could be too much to hold for Equity bulls.At least, Metals are rebounding, with Markets now assuming this pain could get deeper and harsher, triggering the need for some safe havens.We will know more over the weekend. The way to know more is to watch how Bitcoin moves, as other Markets will be closed. If you see green, a deal could really be drawing.If you see large red prints, assume that the war could last at least a few more weeks beyond the announced deadline. Check out our recent Bitcoin analysis to learn more on such catalysts and levels of interest. Read More:Markets Weekly Outlook - Middle East uncertainty to dominate ahead of jobs report, Nasdaq 100 at 6-month lowsStocks reach new lows as War goes on – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookGold (XAU/USD) bounces despite the Oil rally, a first since the US-Iran War – In-depth outlookStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 27, 2026 Most of the moves in Stock Markets aggravated as the session went on and the bloodshed continued.Utilities and Industrials were outperformers but they ceded to the general pressure with only Energy Stocks bouncing. Tech, Finance and Mag 7s dragged Equities in today's interest paying selloff.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView The asset map shows a classic inflation repricing picture, with Cryptos and Stocks, particularly the highest Beta-assets, hurting the most in another harsh selloff.Bonds once again took a turn to the downside, unable to withhold the pressure of WTI retaking $100 – Metals are once again shining as the true safe-havens in the latest Market turn.Of course, WTI and its US Dollar peer are the two leaders of the pack – Monday will be very interesting as this could just be the beginning of a much tougher move.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 27, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs As per usual on strong Oil session, the US Dollar ends up on top with the Canadian Dollar doing its best to catch up.On the other hand, all other currencies suffered on the day – Taking a step back, the extent of FX movement was still relatively contained.A look at Economic data releasing over the weekend and Monday's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Next week will be a much heavier one for Macro, with Inflation reports coming for the Eurozone and Japan to start the week.Those who enjoy Fedspeak will have to log in to two of the most important speakers at the Fed: Mr Powell at 10:30 (ET) and Fed's Williams at 16:30 (ET) – Expect both speeches to be large movers for the US Dollar and rate expectations!Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Pullback complete, bullish structure emerging: WTI corrected 17% from $102.25 to $85.50 but has stabilised above its 20-day moving average, reclaimed $93.70, and is now positioned to retest the $102.25 resistance.Fundamentals support upside pressure: Deepening backwardation (-21.74) signals tightening near-term supply amid escalating US–Iran tensions, reinforcing upward pressure on crude prices.Breakout levels to watch: A sustained move above $102.25 could trigger a fresh bullish leg toward $111–$124, while a break below $85.50 would invalidate the bullish view and expose downside toward the $81–$73 zone. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart alert: WTI crude oil rally almost reached $102.25, risk of minor setback towards $88.36,” published on 16 March 2026.The price actions of the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures) have staged the expected minor corrective pullback of 17% from its key $102.25 near-term range resistance after a retest on Monday, 23 March 2026, at the start of the London session to hit an intraday low of $85.50 at mid-London session on the same day due US President Trump’s “optimistic claims” that US and Iran are in the process of negotiating an immediate ceasefire deal.Thereafter, the West Texas Oil CFD traded sideways above its 20-day moving average as Iran rejected the US’s ceasefire proposal and continued to strike the Gulf states’ key installations as the US-Iran war entered its 28th day.In addition, conflicting messages are being sent out from the US White House Administration. US President Trump has extended by 10 days his pledge to refrain from attacks on Iranian energy-producing sites and added that the “negotiation talks are going very well”.On the other hand, the Wall Street Journal has reported that the Pentagon is considering sending additional troops, as many as 10,000, to the Middle East, on top of the already deployed 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division. Hence, increasing the odds of a US ground invasion into Iranian soil as soon as this weekend.Right now, several technical factors are suggesting the potential start of a new bullish up move sequence for West Texas crude oil at this juncture.WTI calendar spread remains in negative territory Fig. 1: WTI crude oil term structure (12-month forward minus spot rate) as of 27 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) The WTI crude oil calendar spread, defined as the difference between the 12-month forward price and the spot price, serves as a gauge of the market’s structural conditions.A positive spread (contango) reflects a typical environment where futures trade at a premium to spot, factoring in storage and transportation costs.In contrast, a negative spread (backwardation) signals near-term supply tightness, with strong prompt demand pushing spot prices above futures.At the time of writing, the spread has deepened into backwardation at -21.74, marking its most negative level since 6 March 2026 (-23.92) on the onset of the ongoing US-Iran war (see Fig. 1).Hence, near-term prices of WTI crude oil are likely to face further upside pressure.Let’s switch our attention to the potential short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of WTI crude oil.WTI Crude Oil – Imminent potential bullish breakout above $102.25 minor range top Fig. 2: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 27 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) The minor price structure of the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy for WTI crude oil futures) has turned more constructive over the past four sessions, supported by its ability to hold above a rising 20-day moving average.On Thursday, 26 March 2026, it has cleared above its $93.70 near-term resistance and is en route to retest its $102.25 minor range resistance in place since 16 March 2026.Watch the $88.36/85.50 key short-term pivotal support to maintain the current bullish momentum, and a clearance above $102.25 increases the odds of a fresh bullish impulsive up move sequence to seek out the next intermediate resistances at $111.28, $116.56/119.54, and $124.40 (see Fig. 2).However, a break and an hourly close below $85.50 invalidates the bullish scenario for an extension of the minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate supports at $81.85, $77.26/76.83, and $73.38 (also the 50-day moving average).Key elements to support the bullish bias on WTI crude oil Price actions remain above its rising 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates that the medium-term uptrend phase remains intact.The hourly MACD trend indicator has just flashed out a bullish crossover condition above its centreline. This latest positive observation has occurred above its prior bullish breakout above its former key descending resistance on Thursday, 26 March 2026. An indication of a change of trend in the West Texas Oil CFD, from sideways to a minor bullish trend. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar remains strong near multi-month highs, driven by safe-haven demandOil prices cooled slightly this week after a temporary extension of an ultimatum regarding strikes on Iranian energy facilities, though WTI and Brent crude remain historically elevated.Market participants will watch closely monitoring the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reportMost Read: GBP/USD Chart Alert: Bull flag pattern in play ahead of retail sales dataAsian markets showed signs of stabilization on Friday as a brief reprieve in Middle East tensions allowed shares to recover from their initial lows.While the global economy remains under pressure from a persistent energy crunch, investor sentiment was bolstered by US President Donald Trump's decision to extend an ultimatum regarding strikes on Iranian infrastructure. By pushing the deadline back an additional 10 days, following previous extensions, the administration provided a temporary cooling effect on oil prices.Despite this slight recovery, the regional outlook remained largely negative. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) sat 0.7% lower on the day, contributing to a 2.3% loss for the week, its fourth consecutive weekly decline.Japan’s Nikkei managed to weather the volatility better than its peers, ending the week with a marginal 0.3% gain despite a flat performance on Friday.In contrast, Chinese markets outperformed the broader region. Both the CSI300 blue-chip index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 0.7%, driven by reports of potential policy shifts in Beijing.According to sources, the Chinese government is weighing a plan to ease shareholding restrictions for major investors. This move is intended to provide commercial banks with more flexible capital-raising options as they navigate a broader domestic economic slowdown.UK retail sales falls in February British retail performance experienced a moderate pullback in February 2026, with sales volumes dipping 0.4% month-on-month. While this represented the first decline in three months, the figure was notably more resilient than the 0.7% drop analysts had anticipated.This cooling period followed a robust, upwardly revised 2% surge in January, suggesting a natural stabilization after a period of high consumer activity.Industry experts attributed the slump largely to unseasonably wet weather, which stifled footfall at supermarkets and household goods retailers.Additionally, online and non-store retailers saw a slight decrease in volume, as many consumers had reportedly front-loaded their spending in January to capitalize on aggressive seasonal discounts. This shift in timing, combined with the dampening effect of heavy rainfall, created a temporary lull in the retail sector’s momentum.Despite the monthly contraction, the broader data suggests a degree of underlying strength, though the pace of growth is slowing.On an annual basis, retail volumes grew by 2.5%, a significant step down from the 4.8% increase seen in January. When looking at the three-month period ending in February, sales remained up by 0.7%.However, retailers remain cautious as they look toward the horizon, facing the dual headwinds of escalating energy costs and continued geopolitical instability.European shares edge lower European equity markets retreated slightly on Friday, with the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 both dipping approximately 0.2%. The early optimism sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to extend the pause on strikes against Iranian energy facilities began to evaporate as the reality of high energy costs set in.While the deadline for negotiations has been pushed back 10 days to April 6, the underlying pressure of rising oil prices continues to stoke global inflation fears, weighing heavily on investor sentiment.The tangible impact of the conflict was evidenced by fresh economic data from Spain, where preliminary March estimates showed inflation surging to its highest level since 2024. Monthly prices in Spain jumped by 1%, the sharpest spike since 2022 driven primarily by energy disruptions linked to the war with Iran.This inflationary pressure led to a mixed performance among major European players; industrial and financial heavyweights like Siemens (-1.4%), ASML Holding (-1%), and HSBC Holdings (-0.8%) saw declines, while Shell also slipped 0.3%.Despite the lackluster end to the week, the broader European markets managed to secure a positive weekly performance. Defensive and tech-heavy stocks provided some insulation, with AstraZeneca jumping 3.2% and SAP rising 1.4%.These gains helped the STOXX 50 finish the week up 1.1%, while the STOXX 600 recorded a total weekly increase of 1.3%, showing that regional indices remain resilient even as geopolitical uncertainty lingers.Commodity markets Despite the intense volatility seen since the onset of the conflict on February 28, oil prices cooled slightly this week as markets reacted to the latest diplomatic extensions. WTI futures, which have surged 40% since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, recorded a 4.6% weekly decline. Similarly, Brent crude, up more than 48% since the start of the war, retreated by 4% over the same period. While these prices remain historically elevated, the temporary reprieve in hostilities provided a brief window for energy markets to stabilize.The precious metals sector saw a different dynamic on Friday, as Gold climbed 2% fueled by a softening US dollar and opportunistic bargain hunting. Despite this daily gain, the metal remains on track for its fourth consecutive weekly loss, largely due to a hawkish shift in monetary policy expectations.According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders have completely priced out any US interest rate cuts for 2026 and now see a 35% probability of a rate hike by year-end. This is a stark reversal from the pre-conflict sentiment, which had anticipated two rate cuts this year.Other industrial and precious metals also posted significant gains during Friday’s session. Spot silver jumped 3.1% to reach $70.10 per ounce, while the PGM (platinum group metals) sector showed even stronger momentum. Spot platinum surged 3.5% to $1,891.02, and palladium rose 3.3% to finish at $1,398.30.This broad-based rally in metals suggests that while energy prices took a breather, investors are still hedging against long-term inflationary pressures and geopolitical instability.How did FX markets react? The US dollar maintained its position near multi-month highs on Friday as renewed safe-haven demand drove investors toward the currency. This persistent strength is being fueled by a "higher-for-longer" outlook for energy prices, which has created an inflationary pulse strong enough to shift market expectations.Market participants are now increasingly pricing in a potential US interest rate hike by the end of the year, providing a consistent bid for the greenback amidst global uncertainty.While the dollar index softened marginally to 99.83 on Friday, it remains on a trajectory for a 2.2% monthly gain, its most significant monthly advance since July of last year.This broad strength has left other major currencies struggling to regain ground. The Japanese yen (JPY), for instance, continues to hover on the edge of the critical 160 per dollar threshold, last trading at 159.58.Other European currencies showed little signs of a meaningful recovery. The euro (EUR) managed a slight 0.1% uptick to $1.1540 as it nursed recent losses, while the British pound (GBP) remained largely stagnant at $1.3339.As the dollar continues to dominate the foreign exchange landscape, the contrast between US monetary expectations and the economic pressures facing Europe and Asia remains a central theme for currency traders.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Read More:Chart Alert: META down 7%, GOOGL breaks key support. What comes next for the tech heavyweights?GBP/USD Chart Alert: Bull flag pattern in play ahead of retail sales dataPeace hopes? – North American Session Market Wrap for March 23Economic calendar and final thoughts The European session will be quiet today with Spanish inflation data already released. We will get the ECB CPI expectations which could shake up volatility but may not have a lasting impact on the Euro.US economic data is expected to remain secondary to the shifting headlines from the Middle East. However, market participants are closely monitoring the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment report at 4:00 PM CET, specifically the inflation expectations component. Preliminary readings indicated a notable uptick, with one-year expectations rising to 3.6% and the five-to-ten-year outlook climbing to 3.5%.A further increase in these figures could bolster the US dollar, as it would likely push the Federal Reserve toward a more aggressive "tightening camp" to ensure medium-term expectations remain anchored.The market has already begun adjusting to this inflationary pressure, with five-year and ten-year zero-coupon inflation swaps rising by 20bp and 5bp, respectively, this month. Currently, traders have priced in approximately 15bp of Federal Reserve tightening for the year. If consumer sentiment data reveals a significant jump in these expectations, market participants may more actively bet on a rate hike, a shift that would likely strengthen the dollar while simultaneously weighing on risk-sensitive assets. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - US Dollar Index (DXY) In the currency markets, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains well-supported, hovering near the upper boundary of its 99.00–100.00 trading range.There is potential for a further push toward the 100.25/50 area, a move that would keep risk currencies under significant pressure.As long as inflation expectations continue to drift upward, the dollar is poised to remain the primary beneficiary of this hawkish shift in monetary sentiment.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, March 27, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

GBP/USD is under pressure due to cautious market sentiment, USD strength stemming from Middle East ceasefire strains, and uncertainty following President Trump's delay of Iran's energy plant destruction.Technical analysis reveals a bull flag pattern on the H1 chart, suggesting a potential 100-pip rallyIf the price fails to clear the 200 SMA and breaks the 1.3320 support, a move toward the YTD low of 1.3223 is possible.Most Read: Chart Alert: META down 7%, GOOGL breaks key support. What comes next for the tech heavyweights?GBP/USD edged its way lower on Thursday as hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East came under strain. Mixed reports and comments from both sides saw markets adopt a cautious approach with the USD gaining a bid as a result.Late in the day President Trump announced the delay of Iran's energy plant destruction by ten days, until April 6 at 08:00 PM Eastern Time. President Trump emphasized that talks between Washington and Tehran are going "very well" and he decided to pause at the request of the Iranian Government. Trump’s previous deadline was Friday, with the question now being whether this is genuine or another ruse ahead of the weekend? Source: TruthSocial Markets may remain concerned that the US could mount a ‘sneak attack’ over the weekend with defensive positioning and haven demand likely to catch a bid as a result. Such a scenario could weigh on GBP/USD.What do the technicals say? Looking at the technical picture and on the H1 chart below GBP/USD has edged its way lower since printing a fresh high around 1.34800 on March 23.There is a bull flag pattern in play on the H1 chart with a breakout leading to a potential 100-pip rally to the upside.Such a move does face challenges though, as price is currently trading near 1.3333, sitting just below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). There is also the 100 SMA (Blue), which is currently above the 200 SMA (Black) at around the 1.3372 handle.Both of these MAs will need to be cleared first if a rally higher and breakout of the bull flag pattern is to materialize.If the price remains below the 200 SMA (Black line) and breaks the 1.3320 support, expect a move toward the YTD low of 1.3223.GBP/USD Daily Chart, March 26, 2026 Source: TradingView UK retail sales to serve as a catalyst? Early on Friday UK retail sales data is due in what is otherwise a rather quiet day on the economic calendar front. Market consensus is for a print -0.8% MoM print with the YoY print 2.1%.A better than expected figure may provide a temporary bounce for GBP/USD but is unlikely to inspire a sustained break of the bull flag pattern. Any gains may prove temporary without a material change to overall sentiment which continues to support the greenback. Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 26 It would have been unrealistic to assume that a bottom has been reached without a significant advancement in the war.Today, sentiment took a downturn as President Trump shifted his rhetoric, becoming more aggressive in response to Iran, which has, until now, refused to make concessions for a longer peace deal.In an address at the White House during the midday session, the Commander in Chief of the U.S. Army revealed that their enemy counterpart had offered substantial gifts, including a fleet of ten tankers, to facilitate the ongoing indirect negotiations in Pakistan.The issue is that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is unwilling to compromise on its control of the Strait of Hormuz and its highly valued, albeit dangerous, ballistic missile program. Although Israel has begun to realize that the U.S. is prepared to conclude the conflict sooner rather than later, it is still too early to say whether a deal will be reached before the 5-day deadline (which ends on Saturday). Therefore, the possibility of a ground invasion remains a consideration, as a heavy Marine fleet is expected to arrive in the Arabian Sea within the next 24 hours.A recent report from the Wall Street Journal suggesting that the war may end sooner than anticipated has not been enough to invigorate market sentiment. Investors are increasingly concerned about potential escalation before any resolution.Virtually all asset classes are experiencing the impact of the uncertain market conditions, with metals down an average of 4% across the asset class, along with declines in cryptocurrencies, stocks, and bonds. Hope alone cannot do much to alleviate such an uncertain market environment.Tomorrow’s weekly close will be crucial in this regard. Any positive developments ahead of the weekend could lead to a significant rebound in global assets – This would first be observed in Crypto Markets (which remain open 24/7). Additionally, inflation expectations, which will be released tomorrow at 10:00 A.M. ET, will need to be monitored closely. Read More:Logical skepticism for peace pulls the Petrodollar higher – EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Dollar Index (DXY) overviewOptimism fades and Nasdaq burns its wings – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookChart Alert: META down 7%, GOOGL breaks key support. What comes next for the tech heavyweights?Too soon for a Crypto bounce – Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH) OutlookStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 26, 2026 Today was the mark of another brutal session for Tech, decidedly struggling in 2026, dragging its main representative, the Nasdaq, at the lows of US Index performances(-2%).Meta was the main culprit but it alone did not justify the broad risk-aversion seen in Market.Producer Manufacturing also got rejected harshly from the re-escalation fears.As explored in our daily Stock Market Check, Tech had remained quite resilient while its more defensive peers struggled. But when chickens come to roost, higher-beta assets always get dragged further.Tomorrow and Monday will mark essential final tests to avoid a larger catastrophy for Wall Street.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today was a bloodbath in the Market, with the regular Petrodollar and Crude combo ravaging everything on their way, with a particular strength.This strength arises from the fact that this week's rebound was quite fragile, with sentiment remaining cloudy throughout the week – metals were hit the hardest.Their run is now quite compromised, with Gold and Silver both breaching their $4,400 and $70 psychological levels, respectively. If this continues, expect more pain ahead.The fate of Markets lies in the hands of Oil and the Strait of Hormuz.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 26, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Today broadly continued the persistent rebound in the US Dollar, outperforming all its peers for the second consecutive session.Reactions to the top of the RSI range around 100.00 will have to be tracked closely – the Aussie and Kiwi dollars are struggling hard on the other hand – Watch for this as it seems to become a repetitive pattern in recent sessions.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tomorrow will be focusing heavily on US Inflation expectations at 10:00 A.M, but potentially even more on communications from the Trump Administration regarding the War and the arrival of the large Marine fleet.For GBP traders, watch out for Retail Sales in the early UK morning!Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar has been in the spotlight over the past two months, after remaining the pet peeve for FX since early 2025.With wartime, however, things can change fast and decisively: the Global Reserve has risen by 4.40% since its end-January lows in a blink.The new Fed Chair elect, Hawkish repricings, Petrodollars, and a general backing away from risky trades built up sudden demand, particularly at a time when Asset Managers were the most bearish on the USD in 14 years – and when the Market is stuck on one side of a trade, it often results in huge reversals.The Petrodollar trade, however, was the fuel for the currency Market throughout this month, and despite what seemed like a relative dissonance this week, as the tone sours again, the correlation is coming right back. The Petrodollar trade – Oil and US Dollar Correlation. Source: TradingView Indeed, after cautious optimism throughout this week's trading following the announcement of the US-Iran talks, it seems that Iran is still heavily inclined to maintain its strategic advantage over the Strait of Hormuz and its ballistic missile capabilities, two of the most contentious points in the indirect talks.But the real issue for Markets is that President Trump's tone has gradually grown more pessimistic, and this coincides with the fact that the huge Marine fleet is arriving in the Arabian Sea in less than a day – so where are these mere distraction tactics?Good question as War strategy is something that us common mortals cannot fully grasp – the Art of War, legendary treatise, can help in that sort (and is also a great read for traders).Deception tactics are common, and nobody can really understand what any side has in mind.What is sure, however, is that WTI is now rebounding toward $95, the higher bound of its momentum pivot, and above the psychological level, sentiment will sour even further. WTI (US) Oil 1H Chart – March 26, 2026. Source: TradingView At least, the US Dollar is enjoying this move, amid a more hesitant FX session. As further clarity is expected in the next 24 hours, consider current levels as indications of doubtful neutrality amid the ongoing war.Anything above in Oil and the Dollar implies a worsening in conditions and sentiment, which should drag into next week (+ Pessimistic)On the other hand, a return below $90 in WTI will be most welcome to investors (+ Optimistic)We will look at the Dollar Index, EUR/USD, and AUD/USD to assess the current state of the Market and whether more upside is warranted for the Dollar amid resurfacing doubts. Discover:Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) bearish trend resumes below $4,620 as stagflation and oil strength weighFragile optimism stands in Equities, what's next? – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookA better mood is soothing markets, but will it last? – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateDollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index 4H Chart, March 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar attempted a corrective sequence as the US-Iran talks were announced, but with WTI not correcting much further, the currency still receives fundamental support.A few technical elements are developing in the Dollar Index which can help to find trades in major FX pairs:A short term, relatively flat bear-channel has developed and contained the Index movement. Traders may either use it as points of entry to long and short the US Dollar or as breakout signal – We are currently reaching its highs (99.90).Its lows are at around 98.65.A more Neutral 99.00 to 100.00 Range is holding for now – It is less responsive but more stable to watch the higher timeframe movement.Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Resistance LevelsMorning Spike 99.93 and Channel TopWeekly range highs 100.00100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance ZoneWar Highs 100.544Support LevelsIntraday micro support 99.3098.70 to 99.00 Support (Mini Range lows)98.00 2025 SupportSupport 97.40 to 97.602025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 SupportAUD/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels AUD/USD 4H Chart, March 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView AUD/USD just broke its past month's 0.6970 to 0.7150 Major range to the downside, indicating high potential for a further correction.Fundamentals are changing for the Aussie dollar after a strong period after two consecutive hikes from the RBA, particularly after Australian CPI surprised to the downside.Failing to rebound above 0.6980 would hint at more bearish activity in the major pair.Levels of interest for AUD/USD:Resistance LevelsDec 2021 Lows 0.6970 to 0.70 Major Pivot (broken range holds above)Mini Resistance 4H MA 50 – 0.7020; Bullish above2023 Highs from 0.71 to 0.7150 Resistanc0.71867 March highsJune 2022 Extremes 0.72 to 0.7230Support Levels0.69 to 0.6935 Early Feb Support0.69015 session lowsMicro-support 0.6850 (+/- 30 pips)October 2024 Mini-support 0.6750 (+/- 100 pips)EUR/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels EUR/USD 4H Chart, March 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView EUR/USD is now turning bearish, breaking its 4H 50-period MA after a double top this week and crossing below its Pivot Zone (1.1540 to 1.1570).This hints at a test around at least the 1.1475 to 1.15 November Support, which could extend further to the 1.1410 War lows if the situation deteriorates.Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:Resistance LevelsImmediate resistance 1.1546Resistance 1.16250 to 1.163501.1650 to 1.17 March Resistance1.1750 mini-resistance and Channel TopResistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)Support Levels1.1475 to 1.15 November SupportWar lows 1.14101.1350 to 1.14 Support1.12 to 1.13 Next Main Support ZoneSafe Trades and keep a close eye on Middle East developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Bearish trend intact despite rebound: Gold (XAU/USD) plunged 15% to a 4-month low before a 12% rebound, but the bounce is likely a dead cat bounce, with another bearish leg expected.Stagflation & oil strength driving downside risk: Rising WTI crude oil supports a stagflation backdrop, increasing interest rate pressures, and the opportunity cost of holding gold, reinforcing a negative correlation and downside bias.Key technical levels signal further weakness: Breach below $4,440 on Gold (XAU/USD) may trigger a move toward $4,099 and lower, while only a break above $4,620 would invalidate the bearish outlook. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart alert: Gold medium-term downtrend triggered as $4,960 support broke”, published on 19 March 2026.Since 19 March, Gold (XAU/USD) has staged the expected bearish impulsive down move sequence and plummeted by 15% to print a 4-month low of $4,099 on Monday, 23 March 2026, supported by the “stagflation fear” macro factor.Thereafter, the previous yellow metal staged a rebound of 12% to hit an intraday high of $4,603 on the backdrop of “TACO” optimism that the US White House Administration is looking to end the month-long US-Iran war, in turn, allowing passage to reopen in the Strait of Hormuz, the global oil flow choke point.Read more over here why” TACO” induced risk-on sentiment may fail to materialize this time: “Global markets swing on US–Iran War headlines as risk-on rally falters – a cross analysis on S&P 500, US Dollar Index, AUD/USD, and WTI crude”.Right now, intermarket and technical analyses are pointing to another leg of bearish impulsive down move for Gold (XAU/USD), likely the end of the 12% corrective rebound, aka dead cat bounce from Monday’s low.A firmer WTI crude oil supports further weakness in Gold (XAU/USD) Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) & WTI crude oil futures indirect correlation as of 26 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 2: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 26 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) The macro connection between WTI crude oil and Gold is stagflation risk.Higher oil prices via supply side shock (closure of the Strait of Hormuz leads to a lesser oil supply globally, in turn, also creating a second-order effect of lower aggregate demand as input costs of finalized goods and services get more expensive).Hence, stagflation is a deadly combination of higher prices and lower economic growth prospects in later stages. A challenging environment for central bankers as they cannot easily implement expansionary monetary policies to counter and anticipate the second-order demand destruction in a stagflation environment.Therefore, central banks are likely to adopt a “wait and see” approach, and some “inflation-fighting” central banks may turn cautiously hawkish and start to implement an interest rate hike cycle.Gold, being a non-interest income-bearing asset, will incur higher opportunity costs as interest rates rise globally, in turn, triggering a negative feedback loop into the price actions of Gold.Since 17 February 2026, the movement of WTI crude oil futures has an indirect correlation with Gold (XAU/USD), and its 20-day rolling correlation coefficient stands at -0.5 at this time of writing (see Fig.1).The recent pull-back in the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures) due to “TACO jaw bowing” has managed to find support at its rising 20-day moving average.West Texas Oil CFD’s medium-term uptrend phase remains intact, a clearance above $93.70 key near-term resistance may see a further push up to retest the $102.25 intermediate range resistance in the first step (see Fig. 2).Gold (XAU/USD) - End of corrective rebound, start of new bearish leg Fig. 3: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 26 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the $4,620 key short-term pivotal resistance on Gold (XAU/USD). A break below the $4,440 key near-term support (downside trigger level) may set off another bearish impulsive down move sequence to retest $4,167/4,099 before exposing the next supports at $4,007 and $3,936/3,886 (also a Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 3).On the other hand, a clearance and an hourly close above $4,620 invalidate the bearish scenario for an extension of the corrective rebound towards the $4,737/4,775 key medium-term pivotal resistance zone.Key elements to support the bearish bias on Gold (XAU/USD) The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bearish breakdown below its key ascending trendline support.The recent 12% rebound seen in Gold (XAU/USD) from its 23 March 2026 low has stalled close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the prior impulsive down move from the 10 March 2025 high to 23 March 206 low. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 25 We are now concluding a second very passive trading session in Markets, with Participants still digesting the crazy past week and Monday developments.Sentiment remains more positive than it ever was since the beginning of the month, marking definite progress; However, like the French philosopher August Comte said, "everything is relative" (FYI, it actually isn't an Einstein quote).Markets can bloom on just the simple fact that the situation is not getting worse. Pricing Markets is a game of uncertainty, or lack thereof – And the confirming US-Iran discussions are what led to the overnight drop in Oil prices to ~$90 (from $95) in WTI.Once again, as long as WTI doesn't close above $100, the panic in Markets remains controlled.Global asset's inverse correlation with Crude prices remains the most important element in Markets, which allowed a positive session across Metals, Stocks, Bonds and Cryptos.Traders can expect the situation to remain confusing and see no concrete avancements until Friday evening, so timid rebounds may still prevail – but watch out for Thursday's which have emerged as seasonally tough on assets since early 2026. Read More:Fragile optimism stands in Equities, what's next? – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookA better mood is soothing markets, but will it last? – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateGlobal markets swing on US–Iran war headlines as risk-on rally falters – a cross analysis on S&P 500, US Dollar Index, AUD/USD, and WTI crudeStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 25, 2026 Except for Nvidia and Amazon outperforming other mega caps, defensive stocks seem to take the lead in the recent cautious Market rebound.Look for broad sector plays instead of individual stocks, which haven't shown any form of consistency since Monday – at least, as long as clouds remain.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView As you can see on the chart above, the inverse correlation between Oil and other assets remains the key to understand Market flows.But one asset class has emerged as the best performers, and understandably considering their extended moves on Monday – It's the Metals.WTI is rebounding towards $93 as we speak (Brent towards $100) so we are entering a area of risk ahead; Make sure to be flexible on your biases in case the situation changes in a flash.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 24, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Surprisingly, the US Dollar is remaining resilient despite the overnight correction in WTI, so FX traders will have to watch out for this decorrelation.The Aussie Dollar could find interesting plays ahead as it has now been trending lower in the past few session, with the RBA potentially moving towards a slower or ceased hike cycle ahead, particularly after the (small) CPI miss yesterday.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tomorrow will focus heavily on Central Bank speeches as no major data releases (except for the Jobless Claims) are to be expected.Traders will focus on the headlines and WTI instead.Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

UK annual inflation held steady at 3% in February 2026, matching the previous month’s figure.The Bank of England (BoE) faces a policy dilemma as public inflation expectations soar amid war fears and manufacturing cost increases.The GBP/USD pair remained largely flat, trading in a "squeeze" between key moving averages, which suggests an imminent technical breakout is likely.Most Read: AUD/USD: The technical squeeze between 0.6980 and 0.7070Data from the ONS showed the UK's annual inflation rate held firm at 3% in February 2026, matching the previous month's figure and meeting market expectations. This consistency marks a continued period of relative stability, with inflation remaining at its lowest point since March 2025. While the headline figure remained unchanged, the underlying data revealed shifting price pressures across various sectors. Source: TradingEconomics Primary Drivers of Price GrowthThe most significant upward pressure came from the clothing and footwear sector, which saw prices climb by 0.9%. This represents the first increase in four months, largely driven by the seasonal arrival of new spring collections following the conclusion of January sales. Additionally, costs for housing and utilities experienced a slight acceleration, rising to 4.6% from 4.5% in January.Sectors Seeing a SlowdownConversely, several categories helped keep the headline rate in check:Transport: Prices slowed to 2.4% (down from 2.7%), primarily due to a drop in motor fuel costs. Petrol prices fell by 1.6 pence per litre this month, a sharp contrast to the 2.0 pence per litre increase seen during the same period last year.Essential Goods and Leisure: Food inflation eased to 3.3%, while recreation and culture slowed slightly to 2.5%.Hospitality and Services: Costs for restaurants and hotels cooled to 4%, and the closely watched services inflation rate ticked down to 4.3%.Overall, the data suggests a balancing act where rising retail and housing costs are being offset by cheaper fuel and a gradual cooling in service and food prices.Inflation expectations soar on Iran war fears The Bank of England (BoE) faces an increasingly complex policy environment as new data released on Tuesday revealed a surge in public inflation expectations. This shift in sentiment compounds an already difficult situation for policymakers, as manufacturers have reported their sharpest cost increases since 1992, pressures that are expected to be passed on to consumers in the near future.Household energy tariffs are currently capped, a scheduled price adjustment in July looms as a significant upcoming catalyst for further inflation. These mounting pressures have created a notable divide between market participants and economic forecasters regarding the BoE's next move.As of Tuesday per LSEG data, investors were pricing in nearly three quarter-point interest rate hikes before the end of the year to combat rising prices. This should keep GBP partially supported in the interim.However, any significant escalation to tensions in the Middle East could see the US Dollar surge once more and this could drag on cable.The initial market reaction Markets seemed to shrug off today's data with GBP/USD remaining largely flat after the release.Looking at the bigger picture technical outlook, GBP/USD is caught between long-term bearish momentum and a recent short-term recovery.The pair is currently trading in a "squeeze" between two critical Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). While the price has recovered from its mid-March lows, it remains capped by the 200-period SMA (dark blue) at 1.34567, which is currently acting as dynamic resistance.Conversely, the 100-period SMA (light blue) at 1.33560 has shifted from resistance to support, providing a floor for the recent price consolidation. The narrow range between these two averages suggests an imminent breakout is likely as the price searches for a definitive direction.The path of least resistance appears slightly tilted to the downside unless the bulls can clear and close above the 1.34500 – 1.35000 resistance cluster. A rejection at the 200 SMA could lead to a retest of the 1.3333 support.However, if the price holds above the 100 SMA, we may see further consolidation before a breakout attempt.GBP/USD H4 Chart, March 25, 2026 Source: TradingView.com Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.