Equities have enjoyed a remarkable run, with major indices pushing to fresh highs — from last Friday’s Dow peak above the 47,000 milestone to yesterday’s record closes in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.Since June–July 2025, following the end of the 12-day Israel–Iran conflict, markets have been ecstatic, printing new all-time highs almost every week.Yet, beneath the surface, some divergences are starting to show. The S&P 500 now stands 9.5% above its January 2025 high, the Nasdaq is up 12.5%, but the Dow Jones has gained only 3.6% — a notable gap that hints at sectoral imbalance.A weekly look at US Indices Weekly Chart Outlook for US Equities – October 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView This underperformance of consumer defensives and cyclicals, coupled with persistent USD strength, weighs on broader sentiment.Tariffs are hurting US manufacturing companies and dragging profit-margin expectations lower. Things don't look as bad when a sector outperformance drags sentiment higher and pulls indices upward.On the other hand, a lack of Market Breadth ends up dragging the stability of the overall sentiment lower – This is what is dragging indices lower in today's session.Market breadth helps to gauge the overall health, direction, and participation within a stock market or index. It achieve this by comparing the number of stocks that are advancing against those that are declining. US Equity heatmap – October 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More:An unusual pattern emerges in NZD/USD after the 50 bps cutDow Jones Technical Outlook: Dow Tests Key Confluence Level. Is Another 500 + Point Slide Incoming?Europe on the brink of the heating season, yet gas remains cheapHow large are the sector divergences ? YTD performance per Sector (Left) ; Daily performance per Sector (Right) Top performing sectors this year:Basic Materials (dragged higher by commodities): +28.90%Communication Services: +24.18%Technology: +23.09%Worst performing sectors this year:Consumer Defensive: +1.52%Real Estate: +3.71%Consumer Cyclical: +4.41%At some point, Market participants may take caution from some key sectors to the economy underperforming, leading to an overall reduced activity and purchasing power.Now, a trader's role is to spot if this leads to a simple retracement that prompts dip buying, or if the current highs are established for a longer-run.For this, the best is to look at the current highs on all indices: If buyers can push for a weekly close above previous highs, it usually means that the trend is to continue.If they fail to do so, Markets will be looking to retest lower levels in value consolidation.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Dow Jones Index is on the back foot today continuing its bearish trend this week which started with Monday's retreat from the recent highs.The lack of US data due to the US government shutdown has left markets with few catalysts to look forward to. A host of Federal Reserve policymakers including Fed Chair Powell have also done little to inspire any volatility this week.Looking at the current Fear and Greed index, and it is hovering in neutral territory as well. Source: FinancialJuice Given the current malaise we are seeing in US stocks this week and with the lack of US data releases the technicals and chart patterns that develop tend to be more reliable. Let us take a look at what the Dow Jones chart and technicals are telling us.Technical Outlook - Dow Jones, S&P 500 From a technical standpoint, the Dow Jones Index on the four-hour chart below has been printing lower highs and lower lows since Friday October 3.The period-14 RSI has also crossed below the 50 neutral level hinting at a shift in momentum from bulls to bears.As things stand, price is at a key confluence level around the 46660 mark which was the swing low on October 2 and holds the 100-day MA.A break of this level could lead the Dow Jones index to decline some 500 points to test the 200-day MA which rests at 46143 with a move beyond that opening up a retest of the psychological 45000.If the Dow finds support at this confluence level, immediate resistance rests at 46900 before the swing highs at 47050 and 47160 come into focus.Dow Jones Four-Hour Chart, July 16, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) If the Dow does drop, the move may not be a big one. History suggests the current bull market may still have room to run despite Wall Street's impressive performance over the last few years. Let us take a look.History Suggests Bull Market May Have More Upside Potential The current upward trend, or "bull market," in the U.S. stock market is nearly three years old, but historical patterns suggest it might only be halfway through its lifespan.This bull market officially began on October 12, 2022, when the S&P 500 index hit its lowest point after a period of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Since then, the index has been soaring, recently hitting a series of record highs, driven primarily by a massive surge in large technology stocks. The S&P 500 is up almost 90% since its 2022 low.However, this gain is still less than the historical average increase of over 170% for past bull markets, which have typically lasted about five years. Interestingly, the market's performance over the past year (its third year) has been very strong, with a gain of over 15%, marking the strongest third-year performance of any bull market since 1957. Source: LSEG Despite the overall strong performance, the market's gains have been very concentrated. While the standard S&P 500 is up nearly 90%, the equal-weight S&P 500 (which shows the performance of the average stock, not just the biggest ones) has only risen 49%. This difference shows that only the largest "megacap" stocks are truly driving the headline index higher.Some investors are now hopeful that when the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates, it will broaden the rally and allow smaller, average stocks to finally catch up.Now of course this is looking at the S&P 500 but one cannot ignore the knock on impact it has on Wall Street as a whole. The correlation between the S&P500, Nasdaq 100 and the DOw Jones index during the current bull run have been there for all to see. This leaves me thinking that even if there is a lag, the Dow will also benefit from further gains should this bull rally extend for another two years.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The New Zealand Dollar has been under heavy pressure in recent weeks, weighed down by a string of disappointing economic data, including a sharp GDP contraction that surprised markets and pushed the RBNZ toward a more dovish stance.But markets often move in unexpected ways.Despite the policy decision being split between a 25 bps and 50 bps cut, and the RBNZ ultimately choosing the larger move, NZD/USD didn’t tumble as far as expected.In fact, buyers stepped in, bringing the pair back to nearly unchanged levels by the close of yesterday's session. NZD/USD Intraday 15m Chart – October 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView So, what explains this counterintuitive reaction?Markets are forward-looking — a larger cut today reduces the need for aggressive easing later, prompting traders to reassess what might have been peak dovishness.In other words, Participants assess that the RBNZ will have less to do from here.A look at the following Rate pricing for the RBNZ Pre-RBNZ Rate Cut pricing – October 7, 2025 – Source: LSEG A 25 bps cut would have led to a longer rate cut path: A 2% Neutral Rate would have been reached in April 2026, taking the New Zealand economy longer to recover.The red circles follow a 25 bps, slower rate cut path. Post-50 bps cut RBNZ Pricing – October 9, 2025 – Source: LSEG Read More:Europe on the brink of the heating season, yet gas remains cheapNasdaq 100: Short to medium-term bullish trends intact amid AI bubble fearsMarkets Today: Softbank Surges 11%, HSBC Falls 6.6%, US Dollar Continues to Advance. DAX Eyes Further Gains The new pricing shows that the cut cycle is priced to end in February 2026 – Hence, faster recovery for the New Zealand economy.Sellers now aim to test yesterday's lows to see if the yearly bottom has been found after failing yesterday.We’ll now look at NZD/USD key levels to see where is the current bottom and if a new one could then emerge.NZD/USD 2H Chart and levels NZD/USD 2H Chart, October 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Amid a US Dollar rebound, sellers have found a place to sell the pair after re-testing the 4H 50-period Moving Average.Will the pair reach new lows, or has a bottom been found after the Jumbo rate cut?This marks key breakout points to follow for the pair: A break above the daily highs (0.58070) should confirm the intermediate bottom.A downside break would imply further weakness in the NZD is expected.Levels to keep on your NZD/USD charts:Support Levels:March highs Support and Channel lows 0.5730 to 0.5755Yesterday lows for Bulls to defend 0.57370.5650 March Lows Support0.56 Psychological LevelResistance Levels:Session highs and breakout level: 0.58070Current High timeframe Pivot 0.5850, topline and MA 2000.59 Main Resistance Zone (+/- 150 pips)Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

European gas prices stay near 30–32 euro per MWh despite the upcoming heating season.High storage levels and strong LNG inflows from the U.S. keep the market stable.China’s weaker LNG demand reduces global price pressure.Risks ahead include Norwegian production outages and possible winter cold pushing prices toward 40-45 euro per MWh. Despite the approaching heating season, natural gas prices in Europe remain near a yearly low — around 30–32 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh). The persistence of such low levels results primarily from high storage inventories and strong inflows of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States. In addition, lower demand for LNG in China — offset by an increase in pipeline gas deliveries from Russia — has reduced competition and thus eased price pressure on the European market. Chart of the European TTF natural gas futures contract, daily data, source: Bloomberg High storage levels and steady prices Since the end of June, the benchmark TTF price has remained around 30–32 euros per MWh, even as the heating season approaches. In the spring, the situation was much more “tense.” After a cold winter, European gas storage facilities were filled to only 33 percent, it means 25 percentage points lower than the year before. However, thanks to increased LNG imports in the second quarter, storage levels rose to about 80–82 percent, significantly reducing the risk of shortage.U.S. LNG exports play a key role The United States has played a key role in stabilizing the market. After the launch of new export terminals, American LNG exports increased by nearly 20 percent in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year. For the full year, growth is expected to reach as much as 25 percent. Rising supply from the U.S. is helping the European Union gradually move away from Russian gas, whose imports are now planned to end completely by 2027 — one year earlier than previously projected.China’s weaker LNG demand eases global pressure At the same time, Chinese LNG imports fell by 17 percent in the first eight months of the year, and in September they may decline by another 20 percent year-on-year. This results from weaker domestic demand and increased pipeline gas supplies, mainly from Russia, which is redirecting part of its exports from Europe to Asia.Risks ahead: Norway and the weather factor Despite the current stability, it is likely that European gas prices will start rising again in the coming months. Although storage levels are high, they remain slightly below the multi-year average, and another risk factor is the ongoing production outages in Norway, particularly at the Troll field.Outlook: prices may climb by year-end If temperatures in Europe start to drop rapidly and industrial gas demand continues to recover, the market balance could shift. In such a scenario, TTF contract prices could rise — possibly reaching 40-45 euros per MWh by the end of the year. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Two currencies are at the center of Forex movement in this volatile session: the Kiwi and the Yen — and not in a favorable spot.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a 50 bps rate cut, twice as large as many anticipated and only half priced in before the event.The decision followed a string of disappointing economic data that confirmed deeper cracks in New Zealand’s fragile economy — a trend that had pushed markets toward a dovish repricing earlier this summer.With the move from the central bank, the NZD took a large hit, particularly from the hesitant pre-meeting pricing (a smaller 25 bps was also 50% priced).But how much worse can it get? A larger cut today may take out pricing for future cuts.You can (and should!) explore more on the fundamental dynamics for the Kiwi, whioch also explain major FX dynamics right here: Read More: AUD/NZD: On the brink of a major bullish breakout above 1.1470 as RBNZ remains dovish Meanwhile, the Japanese yen finds itself trapped in a different kind of storm — political uncertainty.Newly elected LDP leader Sanae Takaichi, the first woman to hold the role, is facing difficulties forming a coalition with the Komeito party, leaving Japan’s leadership in partial deadlock.This uncertainty, paired with growing fiscal concerns, has capped the yen’s prior momentum.What started as a pre-election strengthening has now flipped into an N-shaped reversal (for nope), with traders sharply selling the currency until clarity returns to Tokyo’s political landscape.Let's dive into two charts for both currencies: NZDUSD and USDJPY to spot what's next. Read More:Who said that the USD and Gold can't rally together?Markets Today: Gold Sails Past $4000/oz, Yen Slides to Fresh Lows & RBNZ Deliver 50 bps Rate Cut. DAX Ready to Rally?NZDUSD two-timeframe analysis and levelsNZDUSD Daily Chart NZDUSD Daily Chart, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView The major pair is caught in a downward channel which acted as a sudden support from the selling spikes.Still largely in a bearish sequence, the pair trades below its 2025 Key support (0.59) and even below its momentum pivot.However, some value-seeking dip buyers entered to bring back the pair +0.70% from its daily lows as peak dovishness from the RBNZ might be getting priced in.Let's take a closer look:NZDUSD 2H Chart and levels NZDUSD 2H Chart, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView NZD Buyers did change the picture quite sharply after the cut, sending more balanced signs into the price action: If the cut was so dovish, the action would still be at the lows.Hence, it might be equivocal to look at a more rangebound price action as long as it is contained between the Monthly channel lows and the topline seen on the chart.Keep an eye on the Pre-Cut level and Daily lows for further momentum insights.Levels of Interest for NZDUSD trading:Support Levels:March highs Support and Channel lows 0.5730 to 0.5770Session lows for Bulls to defend 0.57370.5650 March Lows Support0.56 Psychological LevelResistance Levels:Pre-cut levels for Sellers to defend 0.57955Current High timeframe Pivot 0.5850, topline and MA 2000.59 Main Resistance Zone (+/- 150 pips)USDJPY two-timeframe analysis and levelsUSDJPY Daily Chart and levels USDJPY Daily Chart, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView The most volatile FX major pair is now up 3.50% from its weekend gap up, followed by the strongest bull candles seen since December 2024 and some hawkish repricing for the FED.Japanese politicians will have to be careful with their wordings as the charts are sending worrying signs.Breaking through all-types of resistance levels, the pair is raging higher in an attempt to reprice Yen weakness from the worsening Fiscal outlook.Keep in mind that Markets are pricing in the worst case for the Yen, therefore any better-looking comment may have a sell-the news effect.For now, Kazuo Ueda cancelled his speech so the current trade plays on.The pair will be volatile for while now and traders should expect to see levels breaking up and down depending on upcoming speeches from the Bank of Japan and politicians.Levels of interest for JPY Trading:Resistance levelsEarly 2025 interest zone 153.00 to 153.70Major Resistance 155.00Following Key Resistancee 157.00Support levels151.00 to 152.00 Key Resistance now Pivot150.00 Psychological Support147.80 to 148.00 Key supporta and MA 50 & 200Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold prices sailed past the $4,000/oz mark overnight to reach highs around the $4050/oz mark in the European session.A mix of easy monetary policies, steady buying by central banks and rising world tensions seem to be driving the rally. That move beyond $4000/oz hints that market participants feel hopeful after the psychological barrier fell.Overall, the momentum and the big‑picture forces look lined up, suggesting the $4,000 breach could be part of a long‑run cycle. A pull‑back might be a very good spot for would be bulls.Most Read: Gold's (XAU/USD) Bull Run Just Getting Started? A Look at What History SaysHow Fast the 2025 Run‑Up Happened Gold’s climb this year has been oddly quick for a safe‑haven asset. It’s up 53 % since Jan. and rose 19 % in the last thirty days. In the past three years the price has even doubled.That speed does not look like a reaction to inflation worries or a tiny interest‑rate tweak. It more likely means investors are pricing in big‑picture risk. Concerns include a flare‑up in world conflicts, the US debt ceiling drama, and even the recent government shutdown that showed governance cracks.In some quarters, the discussion of the move in 2025 is around a potential change in the global monetary order.What the answer is, remains purely guess work but does pose an interesting conundrum for market participants.The Global Anxieties Propelling the Price The climb in gold prices does not come from one thing alone. It seems to come from a mix of world problems that bring back gold’s role as a safe haven. A recent note from a BNP Paribas analyst summed it up: “right now, everything that is a classic gold driver is happening.”The most significant driver is geopolitical instability. Ongoing conflicts, including the war in Ukraine and the escalating tensions across the Middle East (the Israel-Hamas conflict, airstrikes on Iran, and disruption to maritime trade), are pushing capital toward non-sovereign stores of value.This is further complicated by political turmoil in developed nations, such as the French political crisis and the persistent US government shutdown and debt concerns. Market participants are expressing angst over US debt levels, the future of the dollar, and the independence of the Federal Reserve.Adding to the complexity are macro bets on future monetary policy. Despite the dollar's relative strength, gold has found strong support from the expectation that the Federal Reserve will execute further rate cuts before the end of 2025. Source: LSEG Institutions Aiding the Gold Rally While geopolitical risk drives headline fear, two critical institutional factors are powering the gold rush: central bank demand and the fear of a potential tech bubble implosion.Central Bank Buying Spree: Central banks globally are aggressively diversifying reserves away from the US dollar and Treasuries and into bullion. This institutional buying spree is massive and unprecedented in recent history.Central banks are on track to purchase an estimated 1,000 metric tons of gold in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of extraordinary accumulation. The People's Bank of China, in particular, has been a robust buyer for eleven consecutive months (September being month 11), demonstrating a structural, long-term shift in global reserve strategy.Global physically backed gold ETFs recorded their largest monthly inflow in September, resulting in the strongest quarter on record of US$26bn.Global ETF inflows on pace for record year Source: World Gold Council The AI Bubble Hedge: A crucial, less-traditional driver is the growing anxiety surrounding the Artificial Intelligence (AI) tech stock boom. Investors are hedging against the possibility of a "sharp correction" or even an implosion of the AI-driven market, a risk explicitly called out by institutions like the Bank of England.Gold, in this context, has become a collective insurance policy against the systemic fallout of a highly speculative tech-sector crash.The combination of these factors has transformed gold from a traditional defensive hedge into a "conviction trade," where dips in price are now universally treated as buying opportunities by institutions and retail market participants alike.Looking Ahead Later today markets will get the FOMC minutes which may hold more sway than usual in the absence of US data. This will also depend on what surprises the Fed minutes may reveal about the September meeting.When the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates, most people thought their official announcements (the statement and the "Dot Plot" chart) suggested they would keep cutting rates easily. However, the Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, spoke after the meeting and sounded more careful. He made it clear that they were not promising to cut rates again right away, which surprised many people.If the minutes show more people than expected were considering a massive rate cut (a 50-basis-point cut), the value of the dollar could fall and Gold could get a renewed shot in the arm.As far as we know, only one member, Stephen Miran, actually voted for that big cut, and Powell said most members disagreed. But the minutes will reveal if other members were at least thinking about it. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD) From a technical standpoint, it is very difficult to pick a top at the moment. Not to mention that the lack of historical price action makes it near impossible.There was a triangle pattern breakout which has finally reached its proposed target around the $4043/oz mark.Usually market participants would hope for some form of pullback after such a move. However recent price action and the break of key psychological barriers suggest the rally could keep going.The RSI period-14 remains in overbought territory and has been holding here for the last three days. Thus this is no real indication that a pullback might be imminent.I will personally be focusing on the whole numbers ahead of $4075, $4100, $4150 up next.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, October 8, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

A new wave of an unusual trade has been unfolding: A steep rally in Gold, coinciding with a steep rally in the US Dollar.Today’s piece will focus on the latter, but it is still an interesting subject that marks an essential functioning of markets: It’s all about what is priced in (and what is not).You have probably seen the headlines, but Gold officially breached the $4,000 milestone overnight, propelled by a larger RBNZ Rate cut, weakening the Kiwi dollar and trouble in Japanese and European (French) politics.A US Government Shutdown is also in the works. But wait, why is the Greenback also rallying?Mentioned after the FOMC September press conference, a less dovish than expected FED with, despite weakening, still strong US Data is forcing a slower rate cut path ahead, providing a floor to the USD.Also, US Dollar bearishness had been such a prominent theme throughout the first half of 2025 that things couldn’t get much worse except for an unpleasant tariff outcome and degrading diplomatic US relations.A bad-looking Government deficit is also priced, but this is not just US-specific, and it is one of the core reasons why Gold loves this trend so much.Hence, as these themes play out and things actually degrade elsewhere, relative strength comes in. And it is here that the US Dollar wins in the current picture.Let's explore this in a Dollar Index technical review. Read More:Markets Today: Gold Sails Past $4000/oz, Yen Slides to Fresh Lows & RBNZ Deliver 50 bps Rate Cut. DAX Ready to Rally?AUD/NZD: On the brink of a major bullish breakout above 1.1470 as RBNZ remains dovishCrazy crypto week: Digital Markets slide, altcoins under pressureDollar Index (DXY) Multi-timeframe technical analysisDaily Chart Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView The USD is attempting to break above the topline containing breakout attempts since early May 2025.Fundamentals have changed a bit since: Tariffs are well-implemented, but they're not as harsh as they could have been on the economy.So, the Economy is still fairly strong, hence less cuts are needed (and rates are still above 4%!).This, combined with a daily double bottom at the yearly support, led to a strong technical bounce above the flat-lined 50-Day MA. With Momentum turning positive, a breakout could come into play.Keep an eye on the Topline: A close above would confirm this outcome, while a rejection points to further sideways action.4H Chart and levels Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView Zooming closer, we see Dollar bulls attempting to break the May topline, with the steep rally that started this week stalling a bit.Nonetheless, the 4H MA 50 is starting to tilt upwards to catch up with prices and may cross above the flat MA 200, a bullish sign.One thing to consider however is: How far could such a rally go with the current fundamentals?A breakout in the US Dollar could point towards the 100.00 level, but cuts are still priced in for 2026, and the labor market is slowing.This is why such a breakout would be more favorable for a repricing between 98.00 to 100.00 rather than a full return above the threshold. Of course, things may change as prices reach these levels and bulls still have to push higher.Support Levels:August highs, Immediate pivot around 98.5098.00 SupportAugust Range support 97.25 to 97.602025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00Resistance Levels:session highs and May topline 98.9999.40 June selling pivot100.00 Main resistance zone1H Chart Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView Buyers will have to break above the daily highs at 98.99 (a close above 99.00 may attract further attention).On the other hand, sellers will want to defend that exact same level and push prices below the post-FOMC Sep 25 highs at 98.60 to retake the short-term advantage.A short-term upward channel is also forming, watch for its support and resistance levels.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: EUR/USD Slides on French Political Turmoil and USD Rebound, Lagarde/Fed Speakers Up NextThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is scheduled to announce its latest interest rate decision, called the Monetary Policy Review (MPR), this Wednesday, October 8th (at 2:00 PM New Zealand time).The meeting comes against a backdrop of disappointing data which included a contraction in economic activity. As a result, market participants cannot agree on how much the RBNZ will cut the main interest rate. Some predict a small cut of 25 basis points (a 0.25% drop), while others are forecasting a large, aggressive cut of 50 basis points (a 0.50% drop) to try and quickly reverse the negative economic trend. Source: LSEG As you can see from the LSEG data above, markets are split. 45.8% favor a 25 bps rate cut while 54.2% are favoring a 50 bps rate cut which leaves market participants with a lot of questions.The Potential Decision: 25bp vs. 50bp? Heading into the meeting it's clear that a cut will materialize but the split at this stage on whether to cut by 25 or 50 bps remains fairly even.A case to support a 50 bps cut?Those who are itching for a 50 bps rate cut will point to the severe macroeconomic setback recorded in the second quarter of the year. The June quarter GDP outcome registered a contraction of −0.9% QoQ, a figure that was 0.6 percentage points weaker than the RBNZ had forecast.While expectations for the September quarter GDP suggest modest positive growth, possibly exceeding the RBNZ's August MPS forecast of 0.3% QoQ, this increase is deemed insufficient to counteract the magnitude of the Q2 error.The idea is that a 50 bps cut would boost the confidence and activity ahead of the important Christmas and Summer trading period.A case for a 25 bps cut?The case for a more conventional 25 bps cut rests in the fact that Q3 data on inflation and employment will not be released ahead of this meeting. In simple terminology, the RBNZ would be ‘cutting in the dark’ as some have called it.The Weak Q2 Data is Driving the Uncertainty Source: LSEG, Table Created by Gemini Q3 Economic Indicators and Monetary Policy Context Despite the compelling need for stimulus, monthly price data suggests that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will sit close to the top of the RBNZ’s 1–3% target range in the September quarter, aligning with the expected 3%-plus print in Q3 and Q4.The MPC, however, is expected to look through this headline inflation, as the ample excess capacity created by weak economic activity is deemed sufficient to moderate inflation toward the 2% target over the medium term.Labor market indicators confirm this weakness: filled jobs data is tracking consistent with the RBNZ’s August forecast of zero growth in Q3, which is likely to result in a further modest rise in the unemployment rate.Furthermore, job advertisements remain exceptionally low, confirming persistent slack. This suggests that the weakness observed in the urban economies and the services sector is sufficiently critical to override inflation concerns and demands proactive intervention focused on domestic activity.The MPC dynamics also favor aggressive easing. The most hawkish member has exited the committee, and the Governor is expected to lend greater weight to the remaining dovish members. This shift increases the likelihood that the MPC will adopt the aggressive "circuit breaking" stance.Market and NZD Impact Impact of 50 bps Cut (Dovish Surprise): While a 50bp cut would likely cause short-term pressure on the Kiwi dollar, that easing is now so well priced in that the downside risks for the NZD are reduced into year-end.Impact of a 25 bps Cut (Hawkish Surprise): a 25bp cut with a hint of another 25bp in November—remains the key threat to market stability. It would strongly signal that the committee sees less need for urgent action. This, in turn, would cause interest rates to suddenly and undesirably increase across the bond market, as traders would quickly cancel their current aggressive bets that the central bank will keep cutting rates fast.NZD/USD Daily Chart, October 7, 2025 Source: TradingView.Com (click image to enlarge). Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

A key theme of 2025 has been broad North American currency weakness — particularly against the Euro and other European majors. Both the US Dollar and the Canadian Dollar have struggled to attract sustained inflows as economic momentum has slowed on both sides of the border.This comes amid a generally weaker Canadian economy (Canada Trade balance data missed again today at -6.32B vs -5.55B exp), the US Main rate remaining elevated and projected to get reduced (we only just got the first 25 bps cut), and, more importantly, US Tariffs hurting trade and economic activity further, particularly between the two neighbors.Markets received some decent Canadian Ivey PMI results (59.8 vs 51.6 exp) at 10:00 bringing back some hopes for better economic results for the Land of the Maple Syrup.With the prospect of tariffs or terms to them reducing with today’s meeting between Canada’s Prime Minister Carney and US President Trump, both the US dollar and Canadian dollar are strengthening against their peers.As a reminder, the CAD is, for example, at levels not seen since 2009 against the stronger Euro, and traders look for better fundamentals to support the currency.Fundamentals that are struggling to be found in a slow Canadian economy.Nonetheless, the better prospects for today’s meeting are helping both currencies regain some ground, leading to interesting developments in USDCAD.Let’s observe what they are through a multi-timeframe analysis of the North American pair. UPDATE: Access the meeting live right here Read More:Markets Today: Yen Hits Two-Month Lows, DXY Continues Advance, Gold Retreats. DAX Eyes Return to SupportEUR/USD Slides on French Political Turmoil and USD Rebound, Lagarde/Fed Speakers Up NextNikkei 225: Rallied above 48,000, key levels to watch next as new Japanese PM ignites bullsUSDCAD Multi-timeframe technical Analysis and levelsDaily Chart USDCAD Daily Chart, October 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView After breaking out of its August consolidation (1.3720 to 1.3880), buyers made a push towards the 1.40 resistance zone and came close to the psychological level.Overall, momentum for the US Dollar did calm sharply after a post-FOMC huge rise, leaving some space for the Loonie. This translates to a sideways moving RSI and sellers appearing at the 200-Day Moving Average.Looking forward, a break above that key MA (Currently at 1.3983) should also lead to continuation above the 1.40 level.Rejecting here however would point to higher odds of return into the August range at least.Let's have a closer look.4H Chart USDCAD 4H Chart, October 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking closer, the pair is consolidating in a triangle formation accentuating the odds of a breakout as prices converge.Things will depend on the outcome of today's meeting so stay close to the headlines.Overall, bulls have more to lose in case the upward (Support) trendline breaks, but also receives a backup from the 4H MA 50 which will be the last barrier before re-entering the August range.Look at a close below the 1.3925 Pivot level for confirmation of this thesis.Levels to place on your USDCAD charts:Resistance Levelsrecent highs 1.39866Friday Sep 29 resistance around 1.39501.40 Major resistanceApril 3 lows around 1.4050Support Levels1.3925 Aug 22 highs current pivot1.3850 to 1.3860 support1.38 Handle +/- 150 pips1.3550 Main 2025 Support There is some ongoing small, indecisive selling but things should get spicier as the day advances and headlines land.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin had been steadily consolidating above the $110,000 mark since July (dipping only twice below before rallying consequently), but hadn’t been able to retake its record levels.Hesitancy was the norm: Summer trading tends to reduce inflows, and supplemented with weakening US Data, the Greenback finding a bottom (will it hold?) and Gold taking all the attention, Cryptocurrencies were a bit more timid.Timid but solid, however, a lack of pursued upside was far from implying weakness.The Crypto Market Cap held steadily around and above the 2021 and 2024 peaks, proof that buyers were not backing out of historically elevated valuations.Nonetheless, a mid-to-end September selling wave gathered fears, shaking out weak hands before rallying 14% (!) to the current + $125,000 record.Some Bloomberg Analysts have reported that, amid the US Government shutdown, some investors rushed into Bitcoin as a safe-haven, amid American political uncertainty grows again.This view was also expressed in one of our previous Crypto editions last week. It still holds some valid levels for anyone interested.Let's take a detailed look at Bitcoin to look what technicals took the nº1 Crypto to the ongoing breakout. Read More:Markets Today: Gold Smashes $3900/oz, Bitcoin Hits Fresh Highs as Japan Election Triggers Frenzy. DAX Eyes Potential RallyPrecious metals break new records to close the week – Gold (XAU) and Silver (XAG) outlookMarkets Weekly Outlook - Navigating the US Shutdown & Global Trends as Equity Markets Continue to SoarBitcoin (BTC) multi-timeframe technical analysisDaily Chart Bitcoin Daily Chart, October 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView The current rally from Friday September 26th lows has completely undone the sequence taking momentum to bearish territory:A fail to close below the September 1 lows, combined with the change of narrative from the post-September FOMC meeting led to the current tight bull channel price action.There hasn't been a red daily candle in BTC in eleven sessions including the weekends and momentum is not overbought yet.Let's take a closer look.4H Chart and levels Bitcoin 4H Chart, October 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView The past week's huge momentum has largely assisted buyers to break all types of resistances including the $117,000 pivot and the $120,000 psychological level.The last lows marked a new upward channel within which prices are evolving, with the higher bound located right around $135,000, in confluence with major Fibonacci extension levels.In any case, there will have to be more work done with the RSI in overbought territory on the intraday.Holding between $120,000 to $125,000 as momentum cools down would further boost the chances of pursuing the price discovery.Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels:$120,000 micro-support to hold for further continuationPivot Zone $115,000 to $117,000$108,000 to $110,000 previous ATH support zone (September 26th lows)$106,000 mini-support$100,000 main support at the psychological levelResistance Levels:Current ATH Resistance $123,000 to $125,000 (testing, need to close above for bulls/below for bears)Current all-time high $125,420Potential minor Resistance at Fib Extensions between $127,000 to $128,200Fib-induced Major potential resistance and channel upper bound $135,0001H Chart Bitcoin 1H Chart, October 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView The ongoing momentum has formed an upward intraday channel within which prices are evolving.Looking at the high RSI levels consolidating, it seems that profit-taking is slowing down progress a bit, hinting at some rangebound action between the intraday resistance ($124,500 to $125,500) and support ($121,000 to $122,000 – in confluence with the 50-Hour MA).Watch for breakouts above and how it revolves into the broad Crypto market:Crypto Market Cap is breaking new highs Total Crypto Market Cap, October 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Total Market Cap is breaking new records which coincides with the current rally and altcoins seem to only start getting tractions.Polkadot, Dogecoin, Ethereum and BNB are the main contenders but look for further widespread buying if BTC consolidates at current ATH levels.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.