Consumer sentiment plunged in November 2025, with the University of Michigan index dropping 6.2% month-over-month to 50.3 — nearly 30% lower than a year agoLayoffs surged to 153,074 in October, up 175% year-over-year, marking the highest level since 2020, as companies cut costs and accelerate automationPrivate-sector jobs rose modestly by 42,000 in October, while wage growth stagnated at 4.5% year-over-year, signaling a cooling but still balanced labor market November 2025 brought a series of troubling signals from the U.S. economy, deepening concerns about its future direction. The latest data on consumer sentiment and the labor market indicate growing caution from both households and employers. Although private sector employment saw a slight uptick, the number of announced layoffs remains at its highest level since the pandemic. Sharp Decline in Consumer Sentiment zoom_out_map United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment, source: Trading Economics According to the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index, sentiment dropped by 6.2% month-over-month in November to 50.3 points – the lowest reading in months and 29.9% lower than a year ago. The assessment of current economic conditions deteriorated even more, falling 10.8% month-over-month and 18.2% year-over-year to 52.3 points. The Consumer Expectations Index – a measure of future economic outlook – declined to 49 points, remaining below the threshold that typically signals prevailing pessimism.Despite the decline in sentiment, inflation expectations remain relatively stable. One-year inflation expectations edged up slightly from 4.6% to 4.7%, but remain well below the May peak linked to the introduction of new energy tariffs. Encouragingly, long-term inflation expectations fell from 3.9% to 3.6%, potentially giving the Federal Reserve more flexibility in conducting monetary policy.Wave of Layoffs Reaches Post-Pandemic HighMeanwhile, the labor market situation continues to raise concern. According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, U.S.-based employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, up 175% year-over-year and 183% compared to September. Since the beginning of the year, announced layoffs have exceeded 1.09 million, the highest level since 2020. Key reasons for workforce reductions include rising operational costs, weakening demand, and increased adoption of automation and artificial intelligence. Experts emphasize that individuals losing jobs now are finding it increasingly difficult to secure new employment, which could further loosen the labor market.On a more positive note, the ADP report showed a modest increase of 42,000 private-sector jobs in October – the first positive result since July. However, as ADP’s Chief Economist Dr. Nela Richardson noted, the pace of hiring is much slower than at the start of the year, and wage growth has remained nearly flat for several months. Year-over-year wage growth stood at 4.5%, suggesting a balanced labor market, but not pointing to strong momentum.What’s Next for the U.S. Economy?Meanwhile, Friday's trading session saw sharp declines across major stock indexes. The NASDAQ 100 dropped 1.9%, Dow Jones fell 0.77%, and the S&P 500 slid 1.26%. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries fell to 4.073%, while the U.S. dollar index also edged lower. zoom_out_map Daily Time Frame of SP500, Dow Jones, NASDAQ100 and US10 Year Treasury Yields, source: TradingView The combination of falling consumer confidence, record-high layoffs, and only moderate employment growth paints an increasingly worrying picture of the U.S. economy. Under such conditions, the Federal Reserve may be inclined to continue monetary easing, especially given stable inflation expectations and a labor market losing momentum. However, the lack of complete macroeconomic data due to the ongoing federal government shutdown, coupled with persistent inflation above target, suggests that policymakers will proceed cautiously. zoom_out_map Target Rate Probabilities for 10th of December 2025 Fed meeting, source: CME Fed Watch Tool The direction of further Fed decisions will likely depend on whether upcoming data confirms a clear economic slowdown and further cooling of the labor market. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 72.4% probability of another 25 basis point cut in December. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil has been one of the least performing commodities throughout 2025, despite being subject to heightened volatility.While it saw spikes in June 2025 following the Iran-Israel 12-day war (from $63 to $78!) and bouts of Ukraine-Russia related news, bearish fundamentals have largely brought the commodity lower.The combination of several major factors has kept selling pressure on Oil:Economic sanctions designed to hurt Russian exportsA general slowdown in global tradeHigher outputs from OPEC+ members who have been flooding the market due to internal issues. zoom_out_map OPEC+ planned output increases (reduction of cuts) – Source: Reuters Consequently, Crude has been consistently sold off on most price pops but that is looking back – Traders need to be forward looking.Although prices remain technically higher than the April 2025 post-Liberation dip, price action remains highly undecided right around the $60 key psychological support mark.As the market is wrestles around this level, let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis for black gold to see if technical elements allow a shift in balance. Read More:Canadian employment shoots higher – CAD takes the leadMarkets Today: China Exports & Imports Slide, ITV Jumps 18%, FTSE Eyes 100-Day MA. Michigan Sentiment Data AheadUSD/JPY hits resistance: Bearish signal warns of a potential topUS Oil multi-timeframe technical analysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map US Oil (WTI) daily Chart, November 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView Crude evolves within a daily downwards channel and despite an October-end rebound at its bottom shaking prices out of the ~$50 handle, candles are still hovering around the middle/lower bound of the channel.Small indecision daily candles are compressing volatility as prices hang at the key $60 level – Pivot during a May 2025 consolidation.RSI momentum is also not showing many signs of decision, so let's have a closer look.4H Chart and technical levels zoom_out_map US Oil (WTI) 4H Chart, November 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView Levels to place on your WTI charts:Resistance Levels4H MA 50 $61.87May range Resistance - Current Pivot $63 to $64 (past week highs)Key Resistance $65 to $66 (200 MA $65.20)Resistance around $67$69 to $70 Main ResistanceSupport LevelsMay Range lows support $59 to $60.5 (Immediate support)Weekly lows $59.0422025 lows support $55 to $572019 support $53 to $54Mid-2019 Main support $51 to $52.51H Chart zoom_out_map US Oil (WTI) 1H Chart, November 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView Current price action is hanging within a consolidation triangle – Yesterday's breakdown attempt got rejected which adds a layer of support ($59)Monitor the 1H support and resistance zones:Watch for any break above the weekly highs ($61.40)On the lower side, watch for a break below $59To confirm, look for session closesOverall, the price action still looks like one of converging prices around $60 which may allow for some interesting range plays.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for November 6Risk assets are flashing warning signs again as November records three losing sessions out of four, extending October’s shaky momentum.The Challenger job cuts report published this morning showed layoffs at their highest pace since October 2003, painting a grim backdrop for the US economy.While some argue AI-driven productivity allows firms to sustain profits with leaner teams, weaker employment inevitably risks weighing on consumption. Read More:Stocks get slammed again after a hopeful reboundUSD/JPY hits resistance: Bearish signal warns of a potential topBitcoin holds above $100,000, but for how long? This stands in contrast to the Fed’s recent hawkish tone, with Powell’s October remarks and this morning's cautious stance from a usual dove (Goolsbee) both pushing back against aggressive easing expectations.Meanwhile, AI leaders like Nvidia’s CEO and OpenAI’s CFO have started issuing warnings about growth sustainability.For now, sentiment is darkening, and the market seems to be questioning whether things can truly get much better from here – BUT, at only 5% from recent all-time highs, the darkest picture is still far.Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, November 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView Today's flows were typical of a risk-off session: US Treasuries are back up, the VIX (not on chart) rose about 6%, gold stayed unchanged (decorrelated from the stocks) while the Equity/Crypto combo got hammered.Keep a close eye on if this materializes into a trend, as only price action and the bits of private releases guide market flows these days.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, November 6 – Source: OANDA Labs The Asia session was a very calm one but things shaked up after the Challenger Job Layoffs report:The US Dollar took a hit, with the DXY falling below the 100.00 level, which profited mostly to the Yen (an enjoyer of stock selloffs).The GBP also finished the session stronger from the rate hold from the Bank of England.At the bottom of the ranks, the risk-on commodity currencies such as the AUD and the NZD, while the North American currencies stayed balanced.(In case you missed it, take a look at out most recent NA Markets update!)A look at Economic data releasing through tonight and tomorrow's session zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. It's unfortunately for traders once again a Non-NFP Friday tomorrow, as the ongoing BLS shutdown continues (although there is a light at the end of the tunnel with more positive ongoing discussions).Canada will however publish their employent numbers which may act as a proxy for North American labor activity (Canada had been sending poor numbers but surprised in the previous release).Beyond jobs, traders will also watch University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations later in the morning.The 10:00 Release may come particularly important amid the ongoing data drought.Plenty of ECB and Fed speeches are also lined up throughout the day – Watch mostly for hawkish surprises which may hurt the pricing for the Dec cut even further.The ECB Annual Conference on Money Markets is also ongoing but Markets haven't heard anything outstanding from it. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Yesterday's session offered quite a positive rewind after what had been a rough start to the month.The powerful uptrends are still technically dominant in the global stocks' impressive yearly explosion, but ever since their first appearance at the big surprise in the August NFP, it seems that sellers are trying to make a decisive appearance again.The underlying technical background for equities has largely stayed positive: strong fundamental value underpinned by roughly 80% of reporting US firms showing growth, combined with a projected dovish path from the Fed while the economy stands solid, had fueled exactly what the bulls needed to close last month at new highs.But the relentless march to consistent new record levels keeps raising the same critical question: Are stock valuations simply too high now?Stock Markets are closing today's session at their lows and at key inflexion points for future action. zoom_out_map US Equity heatmap – November 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Federal Reserve's most recent not-so-dovish return—delivered during what was still technically a rate cut—appears to have finally started to scare highly leveraged participants. In response, traders are now aggressively taking profit on this uncertainty.Some analysts also warn of a rally lacking breadth (leaders bring the market up while the others lag), AI and financial leaders are issuing public warnings and there are even mentions of an Hindenburg Omen (although the accuracy of such signal has reduced as of late).One thing is for sure: Volatility is going to stay elevated, and this is generally a good thing for traders! (Less for investors)Let's have a closer look at intraday charts for all major stock indices: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500, to gauge the immediate momentum. Read More:Bitcoin holds above $100,000, but for how long?USD/JPY hits resistance: Bearish signal warns of a potential topBoE Hold Rates Steady in Close 5-4 Vote Split, GBP/USD Continues RallyDow Jones 2H Chart and technical levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones 2H Chart, November 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView Our past-day analysis looked at the mini-trendline which needed to hold for bullish prospects.But the Dow could not hold the wave of profit-taking which took the index to retest the September 23 previous record (46,794 on the CFD – 46,714 on the actual Index).A close below this key level may bring further continuation, as the RSI momentum consistently grinds lower.On the brighter side, staying above the 45,000 level – Key for a Market barometer – maintains the higher timeframe bullish picture.Dow Jones technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 48,0904H MA 50 and resistance at 47,500ATH Resistance Zone 47,900 to 48,100post-FOMC highs resistance zone around 46,400 (immediately testing)Support LevelsShort timeframe pivot 47,000 to 47,20046,400 major support46,000 higher timeframe Pivot now support45,000 psychological level44,400 to 44,500Nasdaq 2H Chart and levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq 2H Chart, November 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView The current 4% correction from the 26,200 All-time Highs is evolving in a small downward channel which contains both buying and selling within.Sellers are now reaching the lower bound of the May upward channel, a key high timeframe technical aspect to keep an eye on.A rebound here (around 25,000) may be bringing some dip-buying opportunities, however, a break and close below could also bring more selling (as higher timeframes show overbought signs).Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsCurrent ATH 26,283 (CFD)All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Intermediate resistance and 4H MA 50 25,700 to 25,850Mini-resistance at 25,400 Gap and MA 200Session highs 25,730 and MA 50Support LevelsCurrent Pivot 25,050 to 25,200 (Tuesday lows 25,186)24,500 intermediate supportOctober lows 23,997Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportSession Lows 25,110S&P 500 2H Chart and level zoom_out_map S&P 500 2H Chart, November 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView Down close to 1% on the session as we speak, the index representing the 500 best US firms is not resisting to the pressure.Yesterday's analysis indentified a topline that acted as fuel for profit-taking with the confluence of the 50-period Moving average (6,811).Watch the psychological, round levels:A weekly close above 6,800 should act as a positive levy for continuation.Else, below 6,700, a larger pullback could be starting.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,930 (current All Time-Highs)ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930Intermediate resistance 6,830 to 6,855Daily highs 6,796Support Levels6,707 session lowsPivot and MA 200 6,720 to 6,750 (testing)6,680 to 6,700 support6,570 to 6,600 Key support6,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH now Support (4H MA 200 Confluence)PS: The Fear and Greed Index indicates Extreme fear, but with prices less than 5% from all-time highs, it doesn't look like things are quite there yet.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

USD/JPY, arguably the most volatile FX currency pair, has certainly held its reputation this year with a constant flurry of uptrends and downtrends. The first half of the year, demarcated by widespread dollar-selling, took the pair to lows not seen since September 2024 at 139.20.However, a Liberation Day bottom in the dollar followed by a prolonged multi-month range led to a huge, decisive rebound in the pair. Fundamentally, the still large yield differential—between the near-zero 0.50% in Japan and the persistently above 4% for the US 10-year yield—remained a fundamental boost underpinning demand for the US Dollar against the Yen.This phenomenon significantly accelerated after Takaichi Sanae's appointment as Japan's Prime Minister. As a notable fiscal dove following the ultra-loose policies of former PM Shinzo Abe to bolster Japanese economic growth, the Yen could not resist the renewed pressure. After the election, USD/JPY jumped 1600 pips in a breakout gap and kept on going to the recent 154.50 highs, 4.70% above the October open.Only recently, interesting technical developments may have marked a new intermediate top.A bearish daily divergence is helping mean-reversion selling in the current risk-off session.Explore its impact through our mulit-timeframe analysis of the FX pair.USD/JPY multi-timeframe technical analysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map USD/JPY Daily Chart, November 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView The pair broke out far above its slower moving-averages but held rebounded several times on its 20-Day Moving Average (currently at 152.420) key technical pattern to monitor for immediate trends.The new month may have marked the end of the ongoing rally however with the pair's buying momentum regressing from overbought levels; the Daily RSI even shows a Daily divergence - a typical sign of trend exhaustions.Bearish divergences happen when new highs in price are not followed by new highs in momentum (or buyer strength) and the inverse can happen for a bullish divergence.Such breakouts may not immediately be followed with a reversal, but the recent risk-off markets (Equities and Cryptos selling) seen since the middle of last month may provide a boost to the Yen.Let's take a closer look.USD/JPY 4H Chart and technical levels zoom_out_map USD/JPY 4H Chart, November 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView USD/JPY technical levels of interest:Support Levels:Shorter timeframe momentum pivot 152.00 to 152.50151.50 Oct 28 rebound (minor support)July 150.00 to 150.90 supportMay Range Extremes 148.50 to 149.00Resistance Levels:Recent highs 154.50Daily Resistance at February 2025 highs 154.00 to 155.004H MA 50 at 153.40156.00 upside resistanceUSD/JPY 1H Chart zoom_out_map USD/JPY 1H Chart, November 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView The current move has been one-sided for mean-reversion sellers taking the pair to a break of its ascending wedge.An interesting test of the 153.00 handle, right around the current session lows, should offer a key mark to follow:A daily close below could prompt further sellingA rebound from here may lead to a break-retest of the wedge.If buyers step again above 153.70 (look for a 4H candle close), a re-entry in the uptrend keeps high probabilitySafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Cryptocurrencies have held their record prices and valuations in a gigantic 2025 rebound.The outstanding run in digital money has been bolstered by much better regulation and significant dollar diversification, with sanctions further accelerating the need for different means of transacting.Helping consistent stablecoin growth, de-globalization trends are playing their part for the general Crypto market growth. zoom_out_map Stablecoin growth in 2025 from $200B to close to $300B – Source: Coingecko This has become increasingly important as tariffs hurt US trade, international SWIFT usage faces scrutiny, and sanctions are bypassed by major players like Russia and China, particularly in Asia.Nonetheless, despite resilient Bitcoin prices, the world's largest crypto has started to show some warning signs that it's jaw-dropping rise isn't as invincible.A dip right below the $100,000 psychological mark just last week follows a mid-October flash crash that had erased above $600B of valuation in one day (before a fast recovery).Unfortunately for digital currency aficionados, only 15 days have seen upticks in cryptos in the past month with sellers now in short-term control. zoom_out_map Daily overview of the Crypto Market, November 6, 2025 – Source: Finviz Now moving in mildly corrective sequences, major altcoins like Solana and ETH have stopped their fulgurant ascent and are beginning to retest lower levels.The latest Trump-Xi meeting has also put back international relations back on the table, which have hurt gold, also performing strongly in 2025.This has led to widespread profit-taking, which is clearly visible in the Crypto total market cap, which has fallen by 20% from its record highs and now holds below its December 2024 previous record. zoom_out_map Total Crypto Market Cap, November 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More:North American mid-week Market update – Some reversal in 2025 flowsUS Dollar (DXY) Jumps Past 100.00: Fed Rate Cut Bets Fall & Strong US Data. Will this Continue Throughout Q4? The other side of the coin can offer the view that the sudden rise in cryptos haven't many retracements if any.Retracements are typically good for consolidating value in any markets – But avoiding a bear market remains essential for future growth prospects.Dip-buying Opportunity or trap? Let's find out through a multi-timeframe analysis of the top 1 crypto.Bitcoin multi-timeframe technical analysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map Bitcoin Daily Chart, November 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin has failed to hold its $106,000 to $108,000 consolidation at its precedingly major support.The first crack of support happened through the week following the flash crash, but the consequent rebound formed a bull trap.Shortly after, a retest of the $116,000 level brought sellers to complete a lower high sequence.The $100,000 still offers a tenace look for the crypto market and stays a barometer for sentiment.Daily closes above and below will be interesting to watch.While prices are resiliently holding around the 200-Day MA ($102,700), let's take a closer look.4H Chart and technical levels zoom_out_map Bitcoin 4H Chart, November 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView Buyers are stepping in to hold right above the $100,000 Main Support Zone.Now evolving in a descending channel, reactions to its lows will be key:A break below the channel should trigger seller acceleration to the $93,000 SupportOn the other hand, staying above $100,000 (watch for the weekly close) favors a rebound towards the Pivot zone (in confluence with the 50-period MA - $107,300)Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels:$99,000 to $100,000 Main Support$93,000 mini-support$85,000 mid-term Support (+/- $1,500)$75,000 Key long-term supportResistance Levels:Current ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000Current all-time high $126,250$116,000 to $118,000 ResistanceMajor Support Zone–Now Pivot previous ATH $106,000 to $108,000 (and 4H MA 50) Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.The end of last week and the start of this one saw a strong reversal of the dominant 2025 market flows for NA assets.A strong wave of profit-taking hit risk-assets: US and Canadian equity markets saw sharp consolidation.Cryptocurrencies were also hit particularly hard which simultaneously provided a significant boost to the US Dollar, which rallied sharply against most majors.This reversal came immediately after the ASEAN meeting, which finally saw the much-anticipated meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping. The result was a temporary truce and the establishment of some deals with China, despite many critical trade and tariff issues remaining unresolved. This de-escalation immediately undid some of the "de-globalization trade" that had dominated 2025—a flow characterized by selling the US Dollar and buying equities and metals. Read More:Services PMI and ADP beats fuel US stock market returnUS Dollar (DXY) Jumps Past 100.00: Fed Rate Cut Bets Fall & Strong US Data. Will this Continue Throughout Q4?US Dow Jones: A star performer amid the current US AI stocks sell-off The Dollar also benefited from the strong selling pressure seen in Gold, which experienced a sharp sell-off from its recent all-time high prices, driven by the improved US-China relationship. Despite starting the current sessions with momentum, both US Stocks and the US Dollar are now seeing some reluctance, with ongoing Supreme Court talks around the legal status of the tariffs. US car companies, however, are major benefactors of these developments, with both GM and Ford up above 2.50% today on hopes of clearer tariff paths ahead. Let's dive right into a few charts to get an overview on North American Markets, from US and Canadian equity Markets performance, USD and CAD performance to USDCAD and DXY charts.North-American Indices Performance zoom_out_map North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – November 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Dollar Index 8H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index 8H Chart, November 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView I Invite you to check out our most recent in-depth analysis of the US dollar to learn more about what shaped its recent moves and get some interesting takes on what to expect for the Greenback looking forward.US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map USD vs other Majors since last Monday, November 5, 2025 - Source: TradingView. Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map CAD vs other Majors, November 5, 2025 - Source: TradingView. Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD zoom_out_map USD/CAD 4H Chart, November 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView After the steep rise from the past week, ongoing tariff talks are adding some uncertianty in the USD, leading to a short-term retreat in the pair.Nonetheless, US dollar bulls have held the pair comfortably above the 1.40 mark, a very decisive psychological region.Levels to place on your USD/CAD charts:Resistance LevelsApril 2025 Pivotal Resistance 1.41 - 1.4150Nov 5 weekly and multi-month highs 1.4140Key resistance 1.4250Support Levels1.40 to 1.4050 Key Pivot (4H MA 50)Major Daily Pivot 1.39 (+/- 200 pips)1.38 Major support +/- 150 pips1.3550 Main 2025 SupportUS and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week zoom_out_map US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar The US Bureau of Labor Surveys is still closed due to the shutdown, once again preventing the release of the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls release.The Canadian Dollar will be watched closely once again with Governor Macklem speaking twice in two days (His first speech just got published, you can access it here).Tomorrow (Thursday November, 6) will see the release of Canada's Ivey PMIs and Friday should see the release of the Canadian Employment figures. It will be interesting to see if the upbeat ADP report from this morning in the US also spreads to the Northern neighbor.In the absence of much US data, US traders will look closely at the Michigan Sentiment index releasing Friday at 10:00 A.M.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (05/11/2025): In today's episode, TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart discuss the latest in Fed monetary policy projections, a beat in ADP jobs numbers, as well as the recent sell-off in AI stocks, especially Palantir. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The start of the trading day can carry the ghosts of the previous sessions, and today certainly had the potential for a chill. However, after recent fears that the US economic picture couldn't get much better—especially with tariffs biting and a prior softening in the labor market—the mood shifted abruptly thanks to a more positive wave of data.Sentiment turned postive mid-morning after we got a surprising lift in US activity:The morning session offered a beat on the employment front as the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change clocked in at 42K, largely surpassing the 25K forecast. This rebound in private sector hiring helped dispel fears about a degrading US labor picture, amid a still ongoing lack of public BLS data.Shortly after, US Services PMI surged to 52.4, comfortably beating the 50.8 expectations and signaling the strongest growth for the service sector since February. zoom_out_map 1H Chart Outlook for US Equities – November 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView These positive surprises fueled a widespread rebound in risk-assets, with all major US indices turning positive in Wednesday trading. This morning's strong recovery saw indices dip-buying as the S&P 500 fills its gap. zoom_out_map US Equity heatmap – November 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Let's have a look at intraday charts for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 to see where price action stands after recent volatile swings. Read More:US Dow Jones: A star performer amid the current US AI stocks sell-offUS Dollar (DXY) Jumps Past 100.00: Fed Rate Cut Bets Fall & Strong US Data. Will this Continue Throughout Q4?Markets Today: China Services PMI Hits 3-Month Low, Equities Slide, FTSE 100 Eyes Fresh HighsUS Index analysis and technical levels: Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500Dow Jones 4H Chart zoom_out_map Dow Jones 4H Chart, November 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dow posted a strong bullish candle during the morning session, bringing momentum right above neutral for the industrial index.With the rally being stronger in tech than consumer defensive, some profit-taking happened at the 4H MA 50 which is the daily resistance that bulls will want to breakA triangle formation is also forming after the past week's correction and the most recent support, a technical pattern to watch to look out for in upcoming trading.Dow Jones technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 48,0904H MA 50 and resistance at 47,500ATH Resistance Zone 47,900 to 48,100post-FOMC highs resistance zone around 46,400 (immediately testing)Support LevelsShort timeframe pivot 47,000 to 47,20046,400 major support46,000 higher timeframe Pivot now support45,000 psychological level44,400 to 44,500Nasdaq 4H Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq 4H Chart, November 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Despite the brutal past week correction from its all-time highs, the tech-heavy index remains well within its May 2025 upward channel.Up above 1.50% since yesterday's close, bulls really enjoyed the news on the Services PMI, prone to tech overperformance.Nonetheless, buyers will have to maintain momentum (RSI right at neutral) towards the close and will have to breach the MA 50 to retake new all-time highs.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsCurrent ATH 26,283All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300immediate resistance and 4H MA 50 25,700 to 25,850Support LevelsCurrent Pivot 25,050 to 25,200 (Tuesday lows 25,186)24,500 supportOctober lows 23,997Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart zoom_out_map S&P 500 4H Chart, November 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView The S&P also sparked a strong rebound in the morning session, with the last 4H candle closing at its highs.Similarly as the Dow however, an immediate resistance level is getting reached which will have to be breached by the bulls for further continuation (look at the 4H 50 MA 6,855 for confirmation).A triangle formation should precede strong breakout levels, the rest will be to spot whether they come to the upside or the downside. Keep an eye on sentiment across all assets (Cryptos, Equities and Gold which correlate well this year.)S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,930 (current All Time-Highs)ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930Immediate resistance 6,830 to 6,855Support LevelsPivot and MA 200 6,720 to 6,750 (Tuesday lows)6,680 to 6,700 support6,570 to 6,600 Key support6,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH now Support (MA 200 Confluence)Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Price Slips 1.5% as $4000/oz Handle Remains Elusive. What Comes Next?The US Dollar has pushed beyond the 100.00 psychological level today as markets still price in a more hawkish policy from the Federal Reserve moving forward.Interest rate futures now suggest there's about a 70% chance the Federal Reserve will cut its main interest rate in December. This is a noticeable drop from the nearly 90% chance calculated before the Fed's policy meeting last week.This lowered expectation of a rate cut has made traders less keen to sell the US dollar, causing the currency to recover some of its recent losses. Even so, the dollar is still weaker overall this year, currently down about 8% compared to where it started the year, though it was down nearly 11% in September.Essentially, the market still expects the dollar to weaken over the longer term, but the immediate pressure to sell has eased a bit.US ADP and PMI Data Beat Estimates This was helped further today by US ADP and PMI data, both of which exceeded expectations.US private businesses hired more people in October 2025, adding 42,000 jobs. This was a positive turnaround after companies had cut a revised 29,000 jobs in September, and it was better than the 25,000 jobs that experts predicted.In terms of wages, the annual pay raise for workers who stayed in their jobs remained flat at 4.5%. For those who changed jobs, the pay increase also held steady at 6.7%. According to the chief economist at ADP, Dr. Nela Richardson, this stable pay growth for over a year suggests that the number of workers available (supply) is now matching the number of jobs needed (demand). zoom_out_map Source: ADP ADP data has become even more important as the US Government shutdown rumbles on.Looking at the PMI data, the service sector of the US economy grew much faster in October 2025. The key indicator, the ISM Services PMI, jumped to 52.4 from 50 in September, which was better than expected and showed the strongest growth since February. This boost was largely due to a sharp increase in both business activity and new orders.This is a big positive for the US given that the economy is largely service driven and not manufacturing driven.However, companies are still hesitant about the future. The number of people employed continued to shrink (indicated by a reading of 48.2), showing businesses aren't confident enough to start widespread hiring yet.The ISM Chair, Steve Miller, noted that while there were no massive layoffs, several companies mentioned the past federal government shutdown as a source of concern impacting business and potentially leading to future job cuts. Additionally, companies are finding it easier to keep up with demand, as the backlog of orders continued to drop (a reading of 40.8), marking a three-and-a-half-year trend where companies have more than enough capacity to handle new business and reduce their existing backlogs.Finally, price pressures slightly increased, with companies reporting that tariffs are continuing to drive up the cost of goods and services they purchase.US Dollar to Struggle Heading Into Year End? Despite the US Dollars recent renaissance, a recent poll showed that 30 out of 45 currency strategists believe US dollar positioning will be net-short at end-November.This was backed up by a recent Reuters survey, where forecasters were cautious, with many sharing the opinion that the US Dollar could end up being weaker than they currently predict. A slight majority of experts (about 53%) think the dollar is more likely to fall further.One of the key reasons cited in the survey is politics. The risk according to survey participants is that as the current US administration stays in power, it will have increasing political influence over the Federal Reserve as it appoints more members to the Fed Board (Fed Chair Powell's term is up in March 2026 i believe).The current administration is seen as more assertive in using that control, which is why many analysts forecast the Fed will lower interest rates significantly, causing the dollar's value to drop over time.As for the US Dollar against other major currencies, the survey revealed that analysts expect the Euro will get slightly stronger, rising by just under 3% to 1.18 against the USD in the next three months and hitting 1.20 in six months. The prediction for a year from now remains stable at 1.21, a figure that hasn't changed much in four months. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - US Dollar Index (DXY) From a technical perspective, the US Dollar index has finally breached the 100.00 level after 3 months.The previous foray above the 100.00 mark was met with swift selling pressure.Will this time be different?At present the 200-day MA may play a big role as price is currently testing the 100.38 handle where the 200-day MA rests.A break above this MA will be the first time price trades above it since March the 5th.This would be a big deal and could embolden buyers which could push the US Dollar index higher. However, the period-14 RSI is now trading in overbought territory and could lead to some profit taking which could lead to a short-term pullback.For now immediate support is found at 100.00 and the 99.57 handle. A daily candle close below the 98.65 handle would lead to a change in structure and put bears back in the conversation.US Dollar Index Daily Chart, November 5, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Dow Jones outperforms as major US AI stocks tumble — the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 dropped 2.1% and 1.2%, while the Dow fell a milder 0.5%.Financials show resilience with JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley holding steady or posting modest gains, signalling no systemic stress.Technical setup favours a rebound, with the Dow Jones holding above its 20-day moving average and bullish signals emerging from the RSI momentum indicator. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 tumbled on Tuesday, 4 November, by 2.1% and 1.2% respectively, weighed down by an 8% plunge in Artificial Intelligence (AI) favourite Palantir Technologies, despite its Q3 earnings beat.The selloff was driven by valuation concerns, as Palantir’s price-to-sales ratio surged to 85 as of Friday, 31 October, the highest in the S&P 500. Adding to bearish sentiment, hedge fund manager Michael Burry revealed short positions against Palantir and Nvidia in his latest 13F filing.Notably, the US financial sector remained largely insulated from the tech rout, signaling no signs of systemic contagion. Major lenders JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America ended flat, while investment banking leaders Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley posted modest gains of 0.7% and 0.2%, respectively. This resilience helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average outperform, dipping by a milder 0.5% on the same day.Let’s now examine the technical factors, short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory, key elements, and key levels to watch on the US Wall Street CFD Index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial E-mini futures).S&P 500 US Financials sector underperformance has eased zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Relative strength of US S&P 500 Financials & Technology sectors ETFs as of 4 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView) The US S&P 500 Financials sector exchange-traded fund (XLF)’s six months of underperformance against the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund (SPY) has started to lose momentum, as shown by its relative strength chart, XLF/SPY (see Fig. 1).The ratio of XLF/SPY has started to shape a “higher low”. In contrast, the current top outperformer, the US S&P 500 Technology sector exchange-traded fund (XLK), which consists of those mega-cap technology stocks such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple, has started to lose steam as indicated by the “lower high” of its relative strength chart, XLK/SPY.Given that the Financials sector forms the biggest weightage of around 30% in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a reversal of fortunes in the Financials (a further slowdown of underperformance against the S&P 500) may support a positive feedback loop back into the Dow Jones.Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) – Potential recovery at 20-day moving average zoom_out_map Fig. 2: US Wall Street 30 CFD Index minor trend as of 5 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView) Bullish bias on the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index with 46,740 as the key medium-term pivotal support. A clearance of 47,255 increases the odds of a short-term bullish reversal towards the next intermediate resistances at 47,460 and 47,750 in the first step (see Fig. 2).Key elements The price action of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index has formed a daily bullish “Hammer” candlestick pattern right above the upward-sloping 20-day moving average on Tuesday, 4 November, after a prior 5-day corrective decline from its current all-time high of 48,088 on 29 October.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a breakout above its descending resistance, which suggests a potential revival of short-term bullish momentum.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below the 46,740 key support invalidates the bullish reversal scenario on the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index for a deeper corrective decline towards 46,350 and even 45,485 next. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Tech Shares Drag Indexes Lower Most Read: Nikkei 225: Plummeted towards a key inflection support zone at 49,370/48,450 for potential bullish reversalAsian stock markets experienced rollercoaster price action on Wednesday due to a sudden and sharp decline in prices, leading to the highest level of market unpredictability in months. This upheaval was triggered by similar worries about high stock valuations that had caused a slump on Wall Street.The markets in Japan and South Korea were hit the hardest, with heavy selling targeting companies whose stock prices had recently soared.Although the intense selling slowed down later in the afternoon, the drastic shifts in prices highlighted how nervous investors were. Tokyo's main index, the Nikkei, initially plummeted nearly 7% from its Tuesday record high before partially recovering to be down 2.8%.Similarly, South Korean shares dropped as much as 6.2% before trimming losses to be down 2.9%. The broader Asia-Pacific index, the MSCI, saw its biggest drop (2.3%) since early April before closing 0.9% lower.Major companies felt the pain: SoftBank Group in Japan dived as much as 14.3% following a drop in the US tech-heavy Nasdaq, while in South Korea, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics fell by as much as 9.2% and 7.8% respectively.In contrast, Chinese shares eventually rose despite an early dip and a report showing the service sector grew at its slowest pace in three months.The CSI 300 index was last up 0.5% after China's tariff commission announced it would temporarily remove a 24% additional tariff on US goods for a year, though a 10% levy would remain, following the recent meeting between President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump.China Services PMI Slumps The service sector in China grew at a slightly slower pace in October 2025, with the RatingDog China General Services PMI dropping to 52.6 from 52.9 the month before, although this was still slightly better than expected.This lower reading indicated the slowest growth for the service industry since July. The main reason for the slowdown was a small drop in business from foreign customers, likely due to increased uncertainty in global trade. However, the good news was that domestic demand improved, and the total number of new customer orders grew faster than before. On the negative side, companies hired fewer people, partly because they had enough capacity and were worried about costs.When it came to prices, the cost of running the business (like wages and raw materials) went up at the fastest rate in a year. In contrast, companies lowered their selling prices slightly to attract sales in a more competitive market. Looking forward, business confidence weakened a bit due to worries about the future of global trade and growing competition.European Session - European Shares Lower, Earnings in Focus European stock markets reached their lowest point in two weeks on Wednesday because investors worldwide were still worried that stock prices were too high.The main European index, the STOXX 600, dropped 0.4%, trading at levels last seen around mid-October. The biggest losers were technology stocks, which fell 1.3%, while typically safer sectors like food and beverage stocks saw a slight increase.These fears about high stock valuations came back this week after record-setting rallies in the US (Wall Street) and Asian markets, largely fueled by excitement over artificial intelligence. Comments from major US banks on Tuesday added to these worries.Corporate earnings also drove market movements. Shares in Novo Nordisk (the maker of the drug Wegovy) slipped 2% after the company lowered its full-year profit forecast. This happened as the Danish drugmaker's new CEO begins a major restructuring to better compete in the intense market for obesity drugs.Another Danish company, Ambu (which makes endoscopy solutions), saw its shares plunge 12% after its results fell short of analyst predictions. In positive news, wind turbine maker Vestas saw its shares jump 10% after it reported third-quarter operating profits that were better than expected.On the FX front, The dollar remained strong after hitting its highest level since April 1 late on Tuesday. The value of the US dollar index held steady at 100.16 after reaching a high of 100.25 at the close of trading on Tuesday. It also remained mostly unchanged against the euro, trading at 1.1486 per euro, following a 0.3% rise in the previous session that had pushed it to a seven-month high.The nervousness that had caused traders to seek safety in foreign exchange markets in Asia disappeared by the time European trading began. This caused the safe-haven Japanese yen to lose its earlier gains, while currencies from the southern hemisphere, like the Australian and New Zealand dollars, moved higher., and the Swiss franc also stayed up.Specifically, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar successfully bounced back from a 0.5% drop that had taken it to a multi-week low, ending the session slightly higher against the U.S. dollar. The New Zealand dollar recovered from a seven-month low (hit after the country reported its highest unemployment rate since 2016) and was last up 0.3%. However, the New Zealand currency did briefly drop to its lowest value against the Aussie dollar in 12 years.Meanwhile, the British pound (sterling) struggled to rise, remaining near a seven-month low following hints from the British finance minister, Rachel Reeves, on Tuesday about potential broad tax increases in her upcoming budget.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices slightly decreased on Wednesday. This dip was a result of the general decline across financial markets and the strength of the US dollar. Investors were also evaluating the future supply of oil.Brent crude (the global benchmark) fell marginally by 6 cents to $64.38 per barrel, after hitting its lowest price in nearly two weeks during the previous day. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also edged down by 7 cents, trading at $60.49 per barrel.Gold prices increased on Wednesday as investors looked for cheaper deals after the metal had dropped to its lowest price in nearly a week during the previous trading session.The price of spot gold rose 0.9% to $3,966.65 per ounce, recovering from a drop of more than 1.5% on Tuesday.Currently, investors are also closely watching the release of U.S. private sector jobs data, as they hope to find hints about when the US central bank might start lowering interest rates.For more on Gold prices, read Gold (XAU/USD) Price Slips 1.5% as $4000/oz Handle Remains Elusive. What Comes Next?Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts Markets have become more cautious this week, with investors adopting a more "defensive" attitude. There isn't one single clear reason for this shift, but if the markets experience a significant correction (a major drop), investors are likely to point to a few factors: concerns over high stock valuations, uncertainty about how many times the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates, and possibly even the election of Zohran Mamdani as the mayor of New York.Today, the most anticipated economic news is the release of the ADP private sector jobs report for October. Experts predict a small gain of 30,000 new jobs, after a loss of 32,000 last month.This report is once again closely watched by the market because official government jobs data is unavailable. A result that matches the expectation would likely support the US dollar, as it would reduce the certainty that the Fed will cut interest rates again in December (a move currently priced in with a 73% probability).Conversely, a weak or negative jobs number would likely cause the dollar to fall slightly and could actually help boost risky assets, based on the belief that the Fed would then be more likely to cut rates in December.Another key piece of data due out today is the ISM services report. Since this index is currently near the crucial 50-point mark (which separates growth from contraction), any result that is weaker than expected could help ease the strong upward pressure on the dollar zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has found support just shy of the 100-day MA and is now eyeing a move to print fresh highs.The period-14 RSI has crossed back above the 50 neutral level hinting at the bullish momentum returning.This does bode well for a move to print fresh highs.If the 50 neutral level on the RSI holds, this could set the tone for a move toward fresh highs. There is some key resistance barriers that need to be cleared.Immediate resistance rests at 9766 before the 9800 handle comes into focus.A move lower here may find support at 9610 or potentially test the 100-day MA at 9562.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, November 5. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Nikkei 225 correction: The index fell 6.6% from its record high of 52,664, testing a key support zone at 49,370/48,450 that may trigger a short-term bullish reversal.Macro resilience: Japan’s Citigroup Economic Surprise Index rose to 16.8, indicating continued economic outperformance and reinforcing long-term bullish fundamentals.Technical setup: Oversold RSI and a bullish hammer candlestick near the 20-day moving average signal potential bullish momentum. This is a follow-up analysis and timely update of our prior report, “Nikkei 225: Bullish trend remains intact for another potential all-time high of 50,860/51,030”, published on 24 October 2025.The Japan 225 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225) has staged the expected rally and surpassed the highlighted short-term resistance zone of 50,860/51,030. It printed a new record peak of 52,664 on Tuesday, 5 November 2025, before it tumbled by 6.6% to print a current intraday low of 49,099 on Wednesday, 6 November 2025, at the time of writing.Bearish animal spirits in the US stock market, driven by stretched valuations in several major US stocks with an Artificial Intelligence (AI) theme, such as Palantir Technologies and Advanced Micro Devices, triggered a negative feedback loop in the Japanese stock market despite sound fundamentals, and an announcement made on Tuesday, 4 November, by Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi that her administration will roll out a new proactive growth strategy by next summer.Japan’s recent economic data is showing more positive surprises zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Japan Citigroup Economic Surprise Index with Nikkei 225 as of 31 Oct 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (ESI) for Japan has remained above the zero line since July 2025, indicating that Japan’s economic data continues to outperform market expectations. The ESI measures the gap between actual economic results and consensus forecasts, with positive readings signalling stronger-than-expected performance.Recently, Japan’s ESI climbed to 16.8 on Friday, 31 October, up from 13.2 on 28 October, a positive trend that reinforces the ongoing medium- and long-term uptrend in the Nikkei 225 (see Fig. 1).Next up, we will focus on the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory, key elements, and key levels to watch on the Japan 225 CFD Index from a technical analysis/momentum perspective.Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) – Potential bullish reversal at 20-day moving average zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Japan 225 CFD Index minor trend as of 5 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView) Bullish bias with 49,370 as key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above 50,090 increases the probability of a minor bullish reversal towards the next intermediate resistances at 51,090 and 51,730 in the first step (see Fig. 2).Key elements The price action of the Japan 225 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) has formed an hourly bullish “Hammer” candlestick pattern after a retest on its upward-sloping 20-day moving average.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has reached a prior extreme oversold level of 13.9 seen on 10 October 2025, which led to the start of the prior bullish impulsive up move sequence that rallied by 16.6% (high to low) from the 10 October 2025 low to the 4 November 2025 current all-time high of 52,664.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) Failure to hold at the 49,370 key short-term support invalidates the bullish reversal scenario on the Japan 225 CFD Index to trigger a deeper corrective decline towards the 48,450 key medium-term pivotal support. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold prices saw a sharp decline in the US session today with the precious metal down around 1.5%. Gold tested the $4000/oz in the European session but failed to break higher as the rally ran out of steam.The current resurgence in the US dollar which accelerated following a hawkish recalibration of market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy has played a big part in the precious metals struggles.Fundamental Catalysts: The Fed Repricing Shock and USD Strength After last week's Fed meeting, officials made it clear they are less likely to cut rates soon. The market's confidence in a rate cut this December quickly fell from 94% to about 70%.This expectation of higher-for-longer interest rates makes it more expensive to hold gold, which doesn't pay interest, compared to holding the interest-earning US dollar, pushing the gold price (XAU/USD) down. Key Fed leaders have also confirmed this view; some said inflation is still too high and they're ready to raise rates if needed, while another expressed concern about cutting too soon.These signals strengthen the US dollar, which is hurting gold. If the US Dollar Index (DXY) keeps rising strongly above the 100 mark, it would be a major sign that dollar strength is here to stay, likely causing precious metals prices to drop significantly.Adding a small, secondary pressure, a new tax policy in China that removes some exemptions on gold purchases is expected to temporarily reduce how much gold Chinese consumers buy.US Government Shutdown Continues The recent Fed rhetoric suggests a greater dependency on data moving forward. This is of course inconvenient given the ongoing US government shutdown which is disrupting the normal release of economic reports, which means we have less information than usual.Because of this limited data, the few reports that do come out, especially tomorrow's job report from ADP, will likely have a much bigger impact on the markets than they normally would. The overall lack of data may also lead to periods where currency trading lacks a clear direction. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD) From a technical standpoint, Gold needs a four-hour candle close below the 3924 handle for a new lower low to be printed.The current highest-probability trend is a continued decline toward the 3782 to 3797 target range, contingent upon Gold remaining beneath the 4000 psychological level.For the bullish bias to be revived in the near term, XAU/USD must achieve a four-hour candle close above the 4000 psychological level and the 50-day MA at around the 4012 handle.Until such a reversal is confirmed, pressure will persist. It is important to note that while the intermediate trend is negative, the long-term uptrend remains underpinned by the 50-day and 100-day MA on the daily timeframe, which rests at 3844 and 3595 respectively.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, November 4, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Trading at 1.30244, a level last seen in early April, GBP/USD has fallen 0.87% in today’s session alone.Continuing a period of bearish momentum, cable is now on pace for its worst two-weekly performance since November 2024, with four days to spare until the candle closes.Recently breaking through previously held support and the 200-day SMA, one has to ask:What’s next for GBP/USD?GBP/USD: Key takeaways 30/10/2025 With today’s session signifying the worst GBP/USD performance in over 140 calendar days, price action has convincingly broken previously held support at 1.31403, and the 200-day SMA at 1.31011Writing ahead of the Bank of England’s Thursday decision, Governor Andrew Bailey is in a difficult position, faced with rising inflation, which would support higher rates, alongside rising unemployment and weak economic growth, which would support lower ratesOtherwise, and with the dust beginning to settle on last week’s Federal Reserve rate decision, a hawkish tone from Powell to suggest a shallower easing cycle has added a significant tailwind to falling cable pricing Read Kelvin’s coverage on AUD/USD: AUD/USD: Found support again at 0.6515, what’s next as RBA loomsGBP/USD: All eyes on sterling It would only make sense that, considering monetary policy matters scheduled for later this week, much of the market has the pound sterling in its focus.It is fair to say, however, that this newfound focus comes at an inopportune time for GBP/USD, between warnings of “hard choices” in the upcoming Autumn budget by Chancellor Rachel Reeves, and a central bank stuck between a rock and a hard place in their upcoming decision.As a a result, GBP currently underperforms its currency peers by some margin. "It is my job to deal with the world as we find it, not the world that I might wish it to be" Rachel Reeves, Chancellor of the Exchequer, speaking at Number 10 Downing Street, 04/11/2025 For those less interested in the latest from Rachel Reeves, I can save you eighteen minutes:GBP/USD: Fundamental Analysis 04/11/2025 Fiscal health of UK remains in question: At risk of repeating myself from previous coverage, questions around sovereign debt and government borrowing costs continue to reign supreme in GBP/USD markets.Speaking today at Number 10 in a rare pre-budget speech, Rachel Reeves addressed speculation about her upcoming Autumn budget, tasked with plugging an estimated £22bn hole in public finances, compounded by falling UK productivity. Rachel Reeves fails to rule out breaking manifesto pledges on tax in major speech Blaming previous governments, Reeves crucially did not rule out rises to income tax, national insurance, or VAT, despite campaign pledges not to raise taxes on working people Tying this back to GBP/USD, the current narrative surrounding sovereign debt in the UK is weighing harshly on sterling, and despite somewhat questionable government spending in the US, markets are voting with their feet and selling the British pound in favour of other, seemingly more stable stores of wealth. Read more on UK public finances: GBP/USD Price Forecast: Cable to test 5-month lows of 1.31400 as fiscal worries worsen Increased rate cut bets ahead of BoE meeting: To be clear, the majority of markets still predict that the Bank of England will vote to maintain rates at 4.00% in its decision later this week.Although when considering October’s CPI numbers reported inflation unchanged MoM at 3.8%, and that unemployment and GDP data still leaves much to be desired, it would be wrong not to acknowledge a school of thought to cut rates by 25 basis points.In the unlikely event that the Bank of England does choose to cut, however, we can expect this to weigh heavily on sterling pricing in two ways: In a vacuum, lower interest rates are currency negativeWithin the context that a cut would surprise markets, and considering current sovereign debt, jobs market, and GDP data, the cut would likely be seen as an emergency response by the BoE, hurting investor confidence Although it is a firmly minority view, it would be fair to say that rate cut bets are increasing somewhat ahead of Thursday, which is adding to the cable downside.Bringing this discussion back to earth, inflation remains almost twice the target in the UK, at 3.8%, which would make rate cuts hard to justify unless Governor Bailey can reasonably suggest that current inflation is in some way temporary and will resolve itself.GBP/USD: Technical Analysis 04/11/2025GBP/USD: Daily (D1) chart analysis: zoom_out_map GBP/USD, D1, OANDA, TradingView, 04/11/2025 I’m pleased to say both price targets set in my previous commentary have been met, with GBP/USD sliding lower as predicted.Failing to find support at the 200-day SMA or the triple bottom-lows as highlighted, bearish momentum continued, and for now, looks set to continue.Price targets and support/resistance levels: Price target/Resistance #1 - $1.30000 - Key psychological levelPrice target/Resistance #2 - $1.28847 - Lower boundary of previous range While it seems remiss to suggest any evidence of GBP bulls after today, price action may stage some kind of recovery at each price target/area of resistance, especially considering the 14-day RSI rates current price action as ‘oversold’ for the first time since January. Read yesterday’s coverage on the precious metal markets: Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Bullion buoyant above $4,000, now looks for support ahead of ADP payrolls Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Trading at $4,008 well into the US session, up +0.14% in today’s trading, gold bullion continues to look for support at the key psychological level of $4,000.With the US government shutdown still ongoing, US data releases remain sparse.Eyes now turn to the private release of ADP payrolls this Wednesday, which will likely offer some insight into how the Fed will continue its easing cycle.Join me as I attempt to answer the $4,008 dollar question:How will gold (XAU/USD) fare in this week’s trading?Gold (XAU/USD): Key takeaways 03/11/2025 Cooling after a period of significant upside, gold bullion has found some support at the key psychological level of $4,000, with Thursday’s price action showing a persistent level of bullish interestPriced in for some time, last week’s rate cut by the FOMC offered a hawkish tilt, with Chair Powell making some suggestion that this could be the final rate cut of the year, which, in theory, would be negative for gold pricingWith the dollar continuing to fresh highs in today’s session, gold has not only become more expensive for international buyers, but the associated rise in short-term bond yields is increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold bullion, hurting pricing Read Zain’s Asian market wrap-up: Markets Today: Gold in Focus as China Cuts Tax-Break, Asian Factory Orders Slump and FTSE 100 Breaks TrendlineGold (XAU/USD): Safe at $4,000 Although I don’t wish to speak too soon, gold pricing is looking relatively stable above $4,000.Despite the recent downside, which, by most metrics, was entirely inevitable after the explosive rally, gold remains on a firm fundamental and technical footing, with the current consolidation necessary if the yellow metal is to move higher.With that said, this is market commentary, as in, what’s happening now, so allow me to explain some of the key macroeconomic headwinds currently at play in the precious metal markets.Let’s discuss. zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) vs Dollar Strength Index (DXY), D1, OANDA & TVC, TradingView, 03/11/2025 Gold (XAU/USD): Fundamental Analysis 03/11/2025 Hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Powell: Starting with the most significant of the three themes, last week’s interest cut of 25 basis points by the Federal Reserve was met with hawkish commentary from Jerome Powell, citing a need for “data-driven caution”.These comments come at an interesting time, within the context of a full US government lockdown, where data that the Fed would otherwise rely on to guide its decisions, such as PCE, CPI, and NFP, is entirely unavailable.The ongoing government shutdown is now only two days shy of being the longest in history, currently at 34 days.Therefore, considering Powell’s comments, markets have somewhat repriced the probability of a December rate cut from approximately 90% down to 70%, with some surprised at the Fed Chair’s hawkish undertones. zoom_out_map CME FedWatch, 03/11/2025 Although markets still overwhelmingly predict rates will be cut in the Fed’s final decision of 2025, the notion that the Federal Reserve is becoming more hawkish directly challenges the current gold rally, with lower interest rates favouring higher bullion prices.With Stephen Mirran speaking earlier today, notably more dovish amongst his fellow policymakers, markets will continue to refine expectations ahead of December 10th.Rising dollar and increasing bond yields: Now I’ve set up the premise of a more hawkish Fed than once thought, a further two knock-on effects have been the following: A rally in dollar pricing, which now trades at 3-month highs While it is possible for metals to rally alongside a strengthening dollar, rising USD value makes gold more expensive to buy with non-dollar currencies, hurting international investment. Rising short-term bond yields, with the 10YR rising to 4.11%, its highest level since early October This increases the attractiveness of holding government debt when compared to precious metals, hurting bullion pricing zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) vs US 10-Year Bond Yield (US10Y), D1, OANDA & TVC, TradingView, 03/11/2025 Put simply, a more hawkish Fed often means higher interest rates, which is inherently bad for gold pricing. Easing of US-China tensions: To conclude our fundamental analysis for today, it would be remiss not to mention how easing tensions between President Xi and President Trump has effectively removed a significant headwind that was otherwise offering upside to gold pricing.Following the recent agreement on a tariff truce, the risk premium priced into gold has been significantly reduced, resulting in lower pricing.Gold (XAU/USD): Technical Analysis 03/11/2025 zoom_out_map XAUUSD, D1, OANDA, TradingView, 03/11/2025 As stipulated in my commentary a couple of weeks ago, gold did breach the key psychological level of $4,000 and continued lower to the first resistance level of approximately ~$3,889.What’s happened since, however, is more a following of the first scenario:Gold price action will form a base, consolidate, and stage another leg higher, aiming to overcome resistance held at ~$4,240Technically, gold remains well supported at both $4,000 and $3,889, although a move below the latter could spell trouble for gold pricing, with the next stop being at the 50-period SMA.To the upside, which bulls will be keen to hear, we can expect our next reasonable price target to be at the 20-period moving average, roughly at $4,090.Otherwise, our secondary target would be at the previous support-turned-resistance level at $4,240, and then aim to surpass the all-time high of $4,381.Price targets and support/resistance levels: Price target #1 - 50-period SMA - $4,090Price target #2 - Previous support turned resistance - $4,240Price target #3 - All-time highs - $4,381Support #1 - Key psychological level - $4,000Support #2 - Swing low - $3,889Support #3 - 50-period SMA - $3,834 Read my most recent coverage on the crude oil markets: WTI Price Forecast: Crude to end week in the red after Tuesday’s sell-off Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Hang Seng Up 1% as Asian Shares Edge Higher Most Read: Markets Weekly Outlook - BoE Meeting in Focus, US Government Shutdown ContinuesAsian stock markets increased on Monday. This was mainly because of two positive factors: a temporary pause in the US-China trade dispute and a big rise in investments in artificial intelligence (AI). This made investors feel more willing to take risks.Meanwhile, the US dollar got stronger, reaching its highest point in three months, because recent statements from central bank officials suggested they might not cut interest rates as soon as expected.The overall Asia-Pacific shares index (excluding Japan) the MSCI climbed by 0.63% to 729.82, staying close to the 4 and a half-year high it reached last week. This index has already gone up by over 27% this year, making it likely to be its best year since 2017.Japan's markets were closed for a holiday today.Lastly, South Korea's Kospi index soared over $2\%$ to another new record high. China's main stocks were up 0.1%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index also increased by 1%.Asian Factory Output Struggles Asian factories had a tough time starting up in October, according to business reports released on Monday. The main problems were low demand from the United States and the negative impact of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, which hurt factory orders across Asia.Although Trump's recent visit to Asia brought a bit of progress in trade talks with countries like China and South Korea, companies that export goods are still worried about how much the US will buy.The latest private surveys, the PMIs, showed that manufacturing slowed down in China and shrank in South Korea in October. Crucially, the export orders declined in both countries.This confirmed earlier official Chinese data from Friday, which showed that Chinese factory activity had shrunk for the seventh month in a row. This indicates that the previous rush to export goods before US tariffs took effect has clearly ended.European Session - European Shares Steady in Early Trade European stock markets remained mostly stable on Monday as new company earnings reports came out. For example, reports were released by the liquefied natural gas (LNG) company GTT and the Dutch firm PostNL.However, the stock of the drinks maker Campari fell after the company became involved in a tax evasion investigation.The main pan-European STOXX 600 index stayed firm at 572.29 points, remaining near the low point it reached last week.Shares of GTT rose by 4.3% after the French company, which specializes in LNG storage systems, increased its expected annual revenue and profit. The overall oil and gas sector was the best performer, jumping 1.1%.The energy sector got an extra boost as BP's stock climbed 1.7% after the UK company announced it would sell off parts of its US oil and gas business for $1.5 billion.In contrast, Campari's stock slid 4% after Italian tax police seized shares worth $1.29 billion euros from a holding company that controls the drinks group, alleging tax evasion.Also, PostNL dropped almost 4% after the Dutch postal company reported a bigger quarterly operating loss than analysts expected. The company blamed this on increasing pressure on its mail business as the amount of mail decreases and revenue becomes focused on just a few large customers.On the FX front, the US dollar remained strong on Monday, staying near its highest value in three months. Investors were waiting for important economic data this week to figure out how healthy the US economy is and whether that information might make the Federal Reserve change its current plan, which is to keep interest rates high. The dollar's overall value against other major currencies held steady at 99.73, close to its highest point since August.Meanwhile, the Japanese yen remained weak, near an eight-and-a-half-month low. This is because there is a large difference in interest rates between the U.S. and Japan. The yen was also near its lowest value ever against the euro, trading at 177.86 per euro.The New Zealand dollar was close to a six-and-a-half-month low, last trading at 0.5730. The Australian dollar managed to rise slightly by 0.2% to 0.6566. This was partly because many expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep its interest rates unchanged on Tuesday, following a surprisingly high measure of underlying inflation.Finally, the euro dropped to a three-month low and was last valued at 1.1536. The British pound also slipped by 0.19% to 1.3145 ahead of the Bank of England's decision this week, where the central bank is also expected to keep rates the sameCurrency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices increased on Monday because a group of oil-producing countries known as OPEC+ decided to keep oil production steady (not increase it) for the beginning of next year. This decision helped calm worries that there would be too much oil supply.However, the rise in oil prices was limited by disappointing factory data that came out of Asia.Specifically, Brent crude oil futures rose by 28 cents, or 0.43%, reaching $65.05 a barrel.US West Texas Intermediate crude oil was also up 25 cents, or 0.41%, trading at $61.23 a barrel. It's worth noting that even though they decided to hold off on future hikes, OPEC+ had agreed on Sunday to slightly raise output by 137,000 barrels per day in December, matching the small increases planned for October and November.As of Saturday, China changed a long-time tax break for some gold sellers.1 This move could potentially slow down the huge rush to buy gold in the country, which is the world's largest gold market.The government is removing the full 13% tax exemption (Value-Added Tax or VAT) on gold that retailers sell to customers, if that gold was originally bought from the Shanghai Gold Exchange or the Shanghai Futures Exchange.Instead of the full exemption, the break will be lowered to 6% starting on November 1st. This partial exemption will last until the end of December 2027.Following this news, the price of spot gold briefly fell below $4,000/oz on Monday. Gold prices are currently trading near that level, having already dropped about 9%-12% since hitting a record high earlier.Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts Markets are optimistic once more following the announcement of a potential framework for a US-China deal.The European session will bring some comments from ECB officials after last week's ECB meeting.Markets are also waiting for comments from Federal Reserve officials which will come after ISM manufacturing PMI data releases from the US. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has broken below the ascending trendline hinting at a deeper correction.Fundamentals do however remain positive for equities and this makes any potential trade an interesting proposition.Looking at the period-14 RSI and it remains above the 50-mark which is a sign of bullish momentum.If the 50 neutral level on the RSI holds, this could set the tone for further upside.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, November 3. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Currently trading at $61.19 per barrel, crude looks set to end this week’s trading in the red.Unable to pare losses made during Tuesday’s sell-off, where crude pricing fell around 2.23%, WTI trades 0.90% higher in today’s session, and crucially, remains above the key psychological level of $60.What’s next for crude oil?WTI Crude (West Texas Intermidiate): Key takeaways 31/10/2025 Still down just over 1% for the week, WTI crude has found some support in today’s session, following reports that the United States might be planning strikes against Venezuelan military installationsMarkets are undecided on the effectiveness of fresh US sanctions on Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft, with the Kremlin’s indifferent response last week reducing the risk-premium in crude pricingOn the supply side, OPEC+ recently confirmed plans for a modest production increase of 137,000 barrels in December, suggesting a level of comfort regarding the current global crude supply Read the latest on monetary policy: Fed Eases with Caution, BoJ Signals Rate Hike – Global Monetary Policy at a CrossroadsWTI Crude (West Texas Intermidiate): The glut narrative Doesn’t sound very nice, does it?While a rising dollar certainly doesn’t help oil pricing, the current rhetoric within crude markets remains unchanged from previous coverage: oversupply.With that said, and while I’m hesitant to say the winds of change are fully blowing, I’d be comfortable in saying that a faint breeze is currently blowing across the oil markets, owing to some recent developments.Let’s discuss. zoom_out_map WTI Crude Oil (WTICOUSD) & Brent Crude Oil (BCOUSD), D1, OANDA, TradingView, 31/10/2025 WTI Crude (West Texas Intermidiate): Fundamental Analysis 31/10/2025Rumours of United States military action in Venezuela To start with a positive for oil pricing, today’s rally comes after reports that the Unites States would be performing some kind of military action in Venezuela, a founding member of OPEC.Nineteenth by volume of crude production in 2024, the headlines offer a supply-side tail risk to oil pricing, which the markets have received as positive for crude pricing.While Trump and his administration have consistently accused Venezuela and its government of allowing the export of illegal narcotics into the United States, he spoke earlier today to deny any involvement. Reporter: "There are reports that you are considering strikes within Venezuela. Is that true? Has any decision been made on that?"DJT: "No, it's not true" Times News, 31/10/2025 It would seem, however, that markets are less convinced, especially with the increased US military presence in the Caribbean Ocean in recent weeks.As can be expected, developments such as these threaten global oil supply, which boosts pricing - as seen in today’s session.The effectiveness of US sanctions on Russian crude exports now in question Used primarily as a bargaining tool to encourage Putin to return to the negotiating table regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, markets are seriously questioning the effectiveness of recent sanctions.While predictably, the Kremlin made comments shortly after the announcement to suggest that the domestic Russian oil industry would be unaffected by new American sanctions, markets are now taking these comments more seriously.This goes double for Vladimir Putin, who went on record to say he would not be “cowed” by other nations into making concessions about Ukraine, while simultaneously boasting about the success of new nuclear technology.While it is understandable that Trump wants to target Russian fossil fuels, with the three largest companies by market cap in Russia, Lukoil, Rosneft, and Gazprom, all being energy corporations, it will take more supply-side risk to secure higher pricing for WTI, which is on pace for its worst yearly performance since 2020.As expected, the level of risk premium priced into WTI markets has reduced significantly this week, not only due to the above, but also because of the market’s inherent nature: sudden news events often cause the markets to overreact.OPEC+ agrees on modest December output increase Earlier in your reading, you may recall that I mentioned a potential shift in the status quo for crude, with the latest news from OPEC+ being what I was referring to.With a meeting due this coming Sunday, the group leans towards a modest increase in output throughout December of 137,000 barrels, meeting the same target as September and October.Of course, an increase in supply with demand unchanged is inherently oil price negative, but considering OPEC has opted for a modest increase in production three months consecutively, markets are beginning to read between the lines:OPEC+ are becoming increasingly comfortable with the global oil supplyIf nothing else, this begins to limit the downside potential of crude, with current supply levels unlikely to be hiked significantly going forward.WTI Crude (West Texas Intermidiate): Technical Analysis 31/10/2025WTI (WTICOUSD): Daily (D1) chart analysis: zoom_out_map WTICOUSD, D1, OANDA, TradingView, 31/10/2025 In the spirit of honesty, my analysis remains broadly unchanged from my coverage, with much of the same analysis remaining valid.By a few technical metrics, including the 10-period SSL channel, there is evidence of some bullish fight in the market, but the overarching trend remains bearish.If the second price target can be achieved, however, this paves the way for further bullish momentum, especially considering the limited downside from the OPEC+ side of things.To the downside, support can be found at the 20-period moving average and the key psychological level of $60. If the latter is to be breached, we can expect a sharp sell-off towards the lows made in mid-October. Price targets and support/resistance levels:Price target #1 - Previous support turned resistance - $62.56Price target #2 - $63.56 - 61.8% FibSupport #1 - $60.18 - 20-period SMASupport #2 - $60.00 - Key psychological level Read Zain’s wrap-up for the week: Markets Weekly Outlook - BoE Meeting in Focus, US Government Shutdown Continues Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Week in review: Fed Delivers Hawkish Surprise The week draws to a close on a positive note after starting out with a host of risks to consider. However, one by one those risks were navigated and a positive outlook has emerged, for now.US-China have agreed on some key points of a potential trade deal averting what markets feared may spiral into a new cold war of sorts. The meeting between Trump-Xi Jinping did deliver an outcome and one which was cheered by market participants.The question now is, will the deal hold and be built upon or will we get another flare up in a few weeks/months?Next up we had the Federal Reserve meeting which caught market participants by surprise. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell remains defiant and struck a rather hawkish tone to accompany the expected 25 bps rate cut. Stephen Miran of course voted for a 50 bps cut while one Fed member voted for no rate cut at all.Another sign of the conflicting ideas between policymakers and challenges for the Fed moving forward.Lastly we can talk about earnings season where ‘magnificent 7’ companies all provided positive earnings reports and outlooks which has kept the AI boom, well booming.On Friday, Amazon's shares jumped by 10.6% to a new record high after the online retailer predicted higher quarterly sales than analysts expected, boosted by its cloud division reporting its fastest revenue growth in almost three years.Meanwhile, Apple's forecast for iPhone sales in the holiday quarter was better than Wall Street predicted, but its CEO, Tim Cook, warned about ongoing supply limitations; the company's stock remained flat.Finally, Nvidia rose 1.6% after its CEO, Jensen Huang, expressed hope that the company's most advanced Blackwell chips could be sold in China, building on the momentum that made Nvidia the first publicly listed company to exceed $5 trillion in market value earlier in the week Read More:Fed Eases with Caution, BoJ Signals Rate Hike – Global Monetary Policy at a CrossroadNasdaq 100: Short-term bullish trend remains intact despite a less dovish PowellGBP/USD Price Forecast: Cable to test 5-month lows of 1.31400 as fiscal worries worsenHow has the US Dollar and FX Performed? The US Dollar benefitted from the hawkish outlook by the Federal Reserve which led to the USD rising to a two-month high.Looking at Friday, the Japanese yen is heading for its worst monthly loss since July against the US Dollar. This happened because the Bank of Japan disappointed traders who were hoping for clearer hints about future interest rate increases, while the US Federal Reserve also lowered expectations for a rate cut in December.As the yen fell, the US Dollar Index rose 0.35% and is set for its best month since July, with a 2% gain. Meanwhile, the Euro dropped 0.37% after the European Central Bank kept its interest rates steady and stated that policy was in a "good place." The Euro has now lost 1.8% this month due to the Dollar's broad strength.Finally, the British pound fell to its lowest point since April against the Dollar and hit its weakest against the Euro since May 2023, due to increasing political pressure on British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves. zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs The Week Ahead The week ahead will not be as busy as the one just concluded but there are still some high impact data releases and geopolitical risk.Beyond the data, markets will keep a close eye on Russia-Ukraine as well the a potential move by the US in Venezuela. President Trump on Friday pushed back on reports that he had given the greenlight for the US to conduct strikes on Venezuelan soil.If such a move does materialize or if the situation escalates, we could see a rise in risk premium once more just as it appeared to be subsiding.US earnings will also be key as more companies are scheduled to report next week.Asia Pacific MarketsThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to keep its interest rates unchanged on Tuesday. This is because the inflation rate for the third quarter was higher than predicted and above the central bank's 2.5% target.This high inflation will likely be the deciding factor, outweighing the unexpected increase in the unemployment rate in September, especially since other job market indicators still show overall strength in employment.Looking at China, the meeting between Presidents Xi and Trump last week successfully reduced the trade tensions between the two countries. Next week should be quieter in terms of major news from China.The main economic report will be the trade data released on Friday. We predict that China's export growth will slow down to 4.0% compared to last year, and import growth will also drop slightly to 3.2%. This slower pace for both exports and imports is expected to cause China's trade surplus (how much more it exports than imports) to jump back up to $101 billion.Lastly, we move to Japan where based on current projections, Japanese workers are expected to see their earnings and household spending increase. This suggests that consumer spending remains stable, even though inflation is high. Strong results from recent wage negotiations are likely to keep pushing wages higher, and the ongoing rally in the stock and asset markets could also encourage households to spend more.US Government Shutdown Continues, BoE Decision and Inflation in FocusSince the US government shutdown shows no sign of ending, we will have very little official economic data. However, the business and consumer surveys we do get are expected to confirm that the economy is slowing down. Key business reports (like the ISM indicators) suggest the economy is now growing at about 1-2%, which is decent but slower than the 2-3% growth seen recently.Because the official jobs report is unavailable, the private ADP employment report has become extremely important. This report has shown that the private sector has cut jobs in three of the last four months, and we expect only a small gain of about 40,000 this month—a number that doesn't signal a recovery, especially after major job cuts announced by companies like Amazon and UPS.Finally, the University of Michigan confidence index will likely confirm that consumer confidence is weak due to worries about tariff-related price hikes and job security, meaning that spending by middle and lower-income families will likely continue to lag behind that of wealthier households.Across the pond in the UK, stronger recent data on inflation and wages has brought back the possibility that the Bank of England might cut interest rates in November, although I still believe this is unlikely. The decision could be close, potentially a 5-4 vote in favor of keeping rates unchanged, with some members possibly voting for a much larger, 0.50% cut.I don't expect the Bank to give any strong hint about a December cut, as they will want to review the government's late-November Autumn Budget first. However, my conviction regarding a December cut is growing, which would likely be followed by two more rate cuts in 2026. zoom_out_map zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Week - US Dollar Index This week's Chart of the week is the US Dollar Index (DXY)From a technical perspective, the DXY has broken above a key resistance level around the 99.60 handle and is trading at a two-month high.Next up we have the key psychological 100.00 level.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart - October 31, 2025 zoom_out_map Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) Key Levels to Consider:Support99.6098.6798.14Resistance100.00100.50102.16Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Fed cut interest rates to 3.75–4.00% for the second time but signaled a more cautious stance going forward, with growing internal divisions and uncertainty due to the U.S. government shutdownBank of Japan held rates at 0.5% but indicated a potential rate hike in December, driven by persistent inflation and rising wage pressures, despite political support for low ratesJapanese yen weakened against the U.S. dollar following the BoJ decision, with USD/JPY moving higher as markets priced in divergent monetary policy paths The Federal Reserve of the United States cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time in a row, bringing the target range down to 3.75–4.00%. The decision was a response to signs of slowing job growth and moderate economic expansion. Despite the move, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cooled market expectations for further easing, emphasizing the need for caution and a data-dependent approach. zoom_out_map Target Rate Probabilities for 10th December 2025 Fed Meeting, source: CME Group The probability of another cut in December dropped from 90% to 60%. At the same time, the Fed announced it would end its quantitative tightening (QT) program on December 1, 2025, while continuing to reduce its holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) at a pace of $35 billion per month.Growing Divisions Within the Fed and Data UncertaintyDivisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are becoming more pronounced—some members support further cuts, while others advocate a pause. Core inflation remains above target at 3% year-over-year, although Powell noted that the disinflationary trend is ongoing.The situation is further complicated by the ongoing government shutdown, which is limiting access to key macroeconomic data. There’s a real risk that essential reports, such as the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), may not be released next week. Markets reacted nervously—Treasury yields and the dollar rose, while major stock indices declined.Bank of Japan: December Rate Hike Increasingly LikelyIn Japan, the central bank held its main interest rate at 0.5%, in line with market expectations. While the decision brought no change, the tone of the post-meeting communication suggested that a rate hike in December is becoming more likely. Two board members—Naoki Tamura and Hajime Takata—already voted in favor of an immediate move to 0.75%, indicating growing internal tensions. Governor Kazuo Ueda said future decisions will depend heavily on wage data, particularly in light of the third consecutive year of union campaigns demanding 5% wage growth. Core inflation in Japan has remained above 2% for over three and a half years, and the GDP growth forecast has been raised to 0.7%. The yen weakened following the decision, potentially intensifying inflationary pressure through higher import costs. Monetary Policy: Two Paths, One ChallengeCompared to the Fed, which is slowing the pace of easing and adopting a wait-and-see stance, and the BoJ, which is preparing for a potential policy shift. Global monetary policy is entering a new phase: increased uncertainty, diverging policy paths among these two central banks, and rising importance of domestic data all present challenges for markets and policymakers alike. December could prove decisive in setting the tone for 2026. zoom_out_map USDJPY Daily Timeframe, source: TradingView USDJPY reached 154.40, where it encountered resistance. The current situation on the currency pair, together with a possible divergence in monetary policy, creates opportunities for increased volatility, which is an ideal situation for traders looking for investment opportunities. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.