Week in Review - Equities with Fresh All-Time Highs Another inflation print from the US and focus still remains on the labor market where unemployment claims saw a significant spike this week. This leaves the Fed in a position where anything but a rate cut next week could send markets spinning.Inflation data this week did flash some warning signs. Looking at the data, tariff driven price pressure leaks through the economy, though it looks different across categories. Food prices seem to climb a bit, while many non‑essential items are easing. Yet the worry for a typical Fed watcher is not the direct cost of imported goods. It is more about the rise in service costs that come from inside the country. Take the index for services excluding energy. In August it sat at three point six percent. Services less shelter were higher, around four percent. Both numbers sit well above the two percent goal Fed constantly cites.At the same time, the producer‑price data released yesterday showed a weaker jump than analysts expected. Those weak spots feed into personal consumption expenditure measures, which the Fed prefers for inflation. That filter mostly points to higher pressure, not relief. When you line up the latest CPI release, math points toward a core PCE near three percent for August. “Supercore” PCE appears to sit above three point three percent, edging past peaks seen in February 2025 and December 2024, months when the Fed paused rate cuts.If this pattern holds, the central bank may have to rethink its easing path in the near term. Or perhaps the service surge could soften later, giving policymakers breathing room.However, despite the inflation concern Fed Chair Powell faces political pressure as well as growing concerns about the US labor market. Given Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech where he practically confirmed that labor market data is currently the major factor rather than inflation. However, can the Fed ignore the signs?Consumer Confidence Plummets Amid Economic and Inflation Worries Consumers are growing more pessimistic about the economy, with a key measure of sentiment falling to a four-month low in September. The decline was sharper than expected, driven by widespread concerns about rising risks to business conditions, the job market, and persistent inflation.The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to 55.4 this month. This was a notable slide from the previous month’s reading and came as a surprise to economists, who had anticipated only a slight dip. The worsening sentiment was particularly strong among lower- and middle-income groups, highlighting the economic pressure on these households.The report revealed that consumers' views on their own personal finances are declining, with a gloomier outlook for both their current situation and future expectations. Looking at the specifics, a gauge of how consumers feel about current conditions slipped, but the biggest drop came from the barometer of their expectations for the future, which fell sharply.Consumers are also growing more concerned about long-term price increases, as long-run inflation expectations rose for the second consecutive month, climbing to 3.9% in September.Stock Surge Continues The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continued their impressive performance and pushed up to new record levels, mainly thanks to a jump from Microsoft. Investors seemed to be eyeing the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week, where many think a rate cut could happen because the jobs market looks slower.The Dow Jones fell a bit, while the S&P barely rose after a big rally the day before that lifted all three indexes to historic peaks.People are really focused on the Fed’s session on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some analysts think the bank may trim rates by 25 basis points, especially as jobs data dominate the Fed agenda and concerns. Source: LSEG The Week Ahead Asia Pacific Markets - Japan and China in FocusThe Bank of Japan will probably keep the interest rate the same this week. Exports have been slipping, maybe because US tariffs are still biting. Imports could drop too, since global commodity prices seem to be falling. Because exports stay weak, the BoJ may leave its 0.5% policy rate unchanged on Friday in my opinion.The bank still needs some time to see how new US‑Japan trade deal works out. Consumer price numbers are likely to ease to about 2.9% year‑over‑year in August, thanks to last year’s high base. Core inflation, which leaves out food and energy, might stay above 3%, which could help a rate rise in October. Governor Ueda won’t say anything hawkish, given the fluid political scene. Some analysts think the weak export data could hurt consumer confidence, which may slow growth.China will publish its August numbers on Monday. Retail sales are expected to bounce back, around 4% higher than a year ago. At the same time, industrial output probably keeps slipping, perhaps down 5.6% year‑over‑year. Fixed‑asset investment may also fall, about 1.5% down so far this year.Housing price data from about 70 cities should show that the downtrend has continued for a few months. Poor weather was often blamed for the weak July figures. Therefore, August’s data will be a key test to see if the slowdown was just a blip or a longer trend.Federal Reserve, Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Canada (BoC) in FocusThe Fed meeting on Wednesday gets our attention. Inflation still feels high, but the job picture may be getting worse. Over the last four months we have only seen modest job growth, and a recent revision even hints that more than half of the jobs reported added by March weren’t real. That suggests the labor market is softer than it first seemed.A cooler economy and a weaker jobs market could ease the price pressure that comes from tariffs. The Fed therefore might move away from its “somewhat restrictive” stance toward a more neutral stance. According to LSEG data, there is 95% probability of a 25‑basis‑point cut, pulling rates down toward 3.25% by March, down from the current 4.5% ceiling.Retail sales data, due Tuesday, looks likely to stay low because consumers feel uneasy and car sales keep dropping. Industrial output could still shrink again, as the latest manufacturing survey points to another dip.The jobs market feels like a wild card for the Bank of England.We will be watching payroll numbers for any sign of weakness.Recent surveys have been getting better, which may mean the worst is over, but the autumn could still bring risk.Also we need to see if wage growth is finally easing.Looking at the UK and Inflation data due Wednesday is another focus.The BoE is especially nervous about food prices, and those numbers are likely still to sit above five percent. Services inflation, on the other hand, might inch lower. If that happens, the report probably won’t shift the Bank’s plan for cutting rates. I still expect a cut in November, although a big surprise on inflation could make us rethink that view.On Thursday the Bank is not expected to cut rates. Historically it likes to cut only once per quarter and it already cut in August.Even a change in forward guidance looks unlikely in my opinion. Even though the Central Bank has hinted at more cuts, that hint may simply show rates are edging toward a potentially neutral level.The Bank of Canada may cut rates by about 25 basis points soon. Canada’s economy is tied closely to President Trump’s tariffs, moreover production dropped in the second quarter. It may mean that demand from the US weakens, which could linger. Jobs numbers slipped again in August, pushing unemployment up to roughly 7.1 %.Inflation sits near the target, in conclusion the central bank could push rates toward the low end of the so‑called neutral range. Therefore I think another cut could happen in the fourth quarter. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Week - US Dollar Index (DXY) This week's Chart of the week is the US Dollar Index (DXY).The DXY remains under pressure but has thus far remained above the YTD low which was printed in July.The question for many in the week ahead will be whether a rate cut will lead to a fresh yearly low?While this is possible, it does appear that markets have already priced in the majority of a 25bps rate cut. This means that we could be in for a DXY rally this week.This of course is my opinion and could change if the Fed issue a dovish outlook or if Fed Chair Powell hints at more aggressive rate cuts moving forward.Immediate support rests at 97.13 before 96.90 and YTD low around the 96.38 handle come into focus.A move higher for the Index faces a significant confluence area around the 98.50 mark. Beyond that the 99.50 and 100.00 areas come into focus.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart - September 12, 2025 Source: TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 12The inflation picture is settling down, with consecutive PPI (-0.1% vs 0.3% exp) and an as-expected CPI reinforcing the view that tariff effects are translating into one-off price shocks rather than a lasting trend.Since then, risk assets have surged, led by a two-day equity rally that spilled over into a massive breakout in the crypto market.(Still, watch the ongoing risk-off move happening as the week closes and traders secure profits, this is week-end risk happening) A picture of the afternoon rally in the crypto Market, September 12 – Source: Finviz (I invite you to check our latest Crypto analysis to check how things have evolved since the morning session)Meanwhile, higher tariffs from Russian oil importing nations haven't fazed commodity traders, with oil prices largely correcting into the afternoon.Going towards the weekend, risk appetite stays firm as traders shrug off geopolitical noise and set their sights squarely on next Wednesday’s FOMC.(EDIT: As I am writing this, there is a huge week-end risk move where traders sell risk assets, something to watch as the session concludes). Read More:Nasdaq outperforms while Dow falls and S&P 500 holds steady ahead of FOMCA hesistant FX Market after the as-expected September CPI release – Technical levelsUK economy stagnated in July - GBPUSD at a crucial pointCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, September 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView Ethereum goes parabolic in today's continued breakout after following an upside trendline which bulls brought up even before the CPI release.The second largest crypto rallying is (almost always) a good sign for the rest of the crypto market, and allowed wild spirits to unleash on altcoins.On the other side of the performance spectrum, Bonds and the Dow Jones have both struggled in another wave of tech performance.Gold posts another decent session to conclude the week, but most of the attention in commodities go to Silver, which just keeps powering through new yearly highs.You should also check out our most recent Silver analysis!A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, September 12 – Source: OANDA Labs The FX picture is still very dull, with the largest movements throughout this week not breaching the +/- 1% line.The US Dollar still rebounded slightly from the hesitant selling. I'd also watch the Euro which has held very strong amid renewed hawkish talk by Christine Lagarde in her latest speech.A look at Economic data releasing in Monday's session For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. There isn't much on the calendar for the Weekly opening session which may offer a very stagnant trading day (as per usual before such huge FOMC days).Get ready for the huge week ahead (and also don't forget the other wave of Lagarde Speeches on the afternoon session) Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US indices post another fantastic week in ever-ecstastic trading.Participants have been looking away from a now-priced-in slowing Labor market in the US that is still at historically great levels, as inflation came back to grab the most-watched seat.The consecutive CPI and PPI releases have boosted bullish spirits, pushing all indices to new all-time highs in yesterday's session.The Dow Jones saw the heaviest inflows, concluding the session up a staggering 1.38% compared to the 0.63% and 0.82% rises for the Nasdaq and S&P 500, respectively.Nasdaq is taking back its throne in today's action, breaking new records yet again.Some analysts mention that odds for a 50 bps cut at next week's meeting are still far from underrated with good reasons.The -932K (vs -630K) BLS Labor data revisions released last week have added to the US labor's degrading picture as tariffs bite into companies' profits even more in recent months.Add this to the political menaces from the Trump Administration and the dissenting FED speakers who are now gone (hi to Lisa Cook and Adriana Kugler), and with the not-so-hot CPI relative to expectations, the FOMC might be lagging on their policy.Inflation is still uncomfortably high when looking at the core figures (+3.1% Y/Y), adding to uncertainty about this outcome—75 bps of cuts are still heavily priced in the three final meetings for 2025.Explore intraday charts and technical levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500. Read More:US and NATO Tariffs pressure global trade and energy flows – WTI Oil at a CrossroadsETH breaks out and SOL surges higher, keeping crypto markets tightA picture of today's Equity action US Stock Market heatmap, September 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView Another tech-led session to conclude the fantastic performance by Equities this week.No surprise that the Nasdaq is leading in today's session: Look at Tesla breaking out, Palantir recovering with hunger and Microsoft.Other sectors have been struggling a bit more when looking at the red dots to the right, particularly in Consumer Services and Health technology.Next week is promised to be fun to watch and trade.Dow Jones 4H Chart Dow Jones 4H Chart, September 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView Still constrained by the rising wedge upper trendline mentioned the past week, sellers have appeared to take profit in the index which exploded yesterday.Translating to individual sectors explains why today is less interesting for Dow Jones bulls.Anyhow, an elevated RSI is retracting to neutral, more healthy levels and may allow further action to develop looking forward.Also, do not forget how huge was yesterday's green candle for the Dow. Profit taking here isn't too surprising.Watch the lower trendline of the rising wedge for support and be careful of a break. Levels for Dow Jones tradingResistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 45,765ATH Resistance Zone 45,700 (+/- 150 pts)1.618 Fibonacci-Extension for potential ATH resistance 46,400 to 46,850Support LevelsLow of imminent consolidation 45,280Key Support/longer-run pivot 45,000Support 44,200 to 44,500Main Support (NFP Lows) 43,000 to 43,750S&P 500 4H Chart – 6,600 broken! S&P 500 4H Chart, September 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Spoose is enjoying its pre-weekend trading after a slow start to the session.Dragged by an ever-joyful tech sector, bulls are taking the S&P 500 to another round of record high and trades 1 point away from the 6,600 level as I write this.The ongoing 4H candle trades at its highs, leaving not much space for bears to interract.Still, trading might be slightly more cautious as the FOMC day looms. S&P 500 technical levelsResistance LevelsDaily highs 6,601!6,570 to 6,603 Potential ATH resistance (from Fibonacci extension, currently trading)Higher timeframe potential resistance around the 6,700 level (1.618 from April lows)Support Levels6,490 to 6,512 pivot6,400 Main Support6,300 psychological support6,210 to 6,235 Main Support (August NFP Lows)Nasdaq 4H Chart Nasdaq 4H Chart, September 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Nasdaq has been very tricky in the past weeks, showing initial hesitation and trading choppy before exploding higher leaving bears in fumes.Today was not an exception.After a relatively slower day compared to its peers, the tech-focused index is taking a train to a new price discovery phase.Look at the tech-sector compared to others. It is scary to be short these days. Nasdaq technical levels of interestResistance LevelsCurrent All-time Highs 24,13824,203 to 24,250 1.382 Fibonacci level from monthly lowsPotential resistance at the 1.618 from monthly lows 24,400Support LevelsPrevious ATH zone turning pivot (23,950 to 24,020)23,500 support23,000 Key SupportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report “AUD/USD Technical: Further Aussie rally towards major resistance, supported by firmer China core inflation”, published on 10 September 2025.The price actions of the AUD/USD have indeed jumped as expected; it rallied by 1.2% to record an intraday high of 0.6690 on Friday, 12 September, Asia session at the time of writing, and hit the lower limit of the 0.6660/0.6680 major resistance zone mentioned in our publication. Fig. 1: 5-day rolling performances of major currencies versus the US dollar as of 12 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Based on the 5-day rolling performances of the US dollar against the major currencies as of Friday, 12 September, the Australian dollar is the strongest performing currency, where the US dollar shed -1.67% against the AUD, a larger magnitude than the loss of -0.3% seen in the US Dollar Index over the same period (see Fig. 1).What’s next? Let’s break down for you the key fundamental factors and technical elements that are likely to drive forward the movement of the AUD/USD in the near to medium-term time horizon.Further demand-side weakness in the US economy Fig. 2: US Unemployment Rate, ISM Manufacturing/Services Employment & University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment as of Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView) The rally seen in the Australian dollar in the past two weeks has been more attributed to external economic forces (the US and China).On the US side of the equation, more evidence that the deterioration of the US labour market (weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls data for August, unemployment rose to almost a 4-year high of 4.3%, and initial jobless claims for the week ending 6 September increased to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021).All these latest lackluster US labour market data outweigh the risk of a sticky inflationary trend in the US due to the US White House’s trade tariffs, which have triggered the pricing of a more pronounced Fed dovish pivot that is likely to kickstart next week at the FOMC meeting on 17 September.Today at 14:00 GMT, the preliminary September reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index will be released, a key leading indicator of US demand-side conditions.According to the Trading Economics website, market forecasts are at 58, a slight dip from August’s print of 58.2.The major trend of the University of Michigan’s US consumer sentiment has been deteriorating since March 2024’s print of 79/4, and if September’s print is below expectations (below 58), it is likely to trigger higher odds of Fed’s rate cuts bets in 2026, and asserts further downside pressure on the US dollar, in turn, boosting indirect demand for AUD (see Fig. 2).Higher Iron Ore futures prices trigger a positive feedback loop back into AUD/USD Fig. 3: Iron Ore CFR China futures with AUD/USD as of 12 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) In our previous publication, we highlighted that the latest core CPI inflation trend in China has reduced the risk of an entrenched deflationary risk spiral.It will have a trickle-down positive impact on the demand for iron ore, which is one of Australia’s key exports to China.The forward-looking demand for iron ore can be gauged by examining the trends of the iron ore futures, which have a direct correlation with the movement of the AUD/USD (see Fig. 3).Recent price actions of the Iron Ore CFR China futures listed on the Singapore Exchange have started to form a major bullish basing formation since September 2024 and traded back up above its 200-day moving average since the week of 4 August 2025.A further move up in the Iron Ore CFR China futures and a break above 113.75 is likely to trigger a major positive feedback loop back into the AUD/USD (see Fig. 3).Let’s now dive deeper into the technical analysis aspects of AUD/USD and determine its next near-term trajectory (1 to 3 days), key levels to watch, and key technical elements. Fig. 4: AUD/USD minor trend as of 12 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 5: AUD/USD medium-term & major trends as of 12 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) The minor bullish trend of AUD/USD from the 4 September 2025 low remains intact, but a risk of a minor pullback first before a potential new impulsive up move sequence materializes.Maintain bullish bias with an adjusted short-term pivotal support at 0.6620 to contain the potential minor pull-back, and a clearance above 0.6700 adds impetus for the next intermediate resistance to come in at 0.6760 (also a Fibonacci extension) in the first step (see Fig. 4).Key technical elements The major resistance of the AUD/USD stands at 0.6660/0.6700, which is defined by the upper boundary of the medium-term “Expanding Wedge” range configuration and the long-term secular descending trendline from the 25 February 2021 high (see Fig. 5).The daily RSI momentum indicator of the AUD/USD has continued to trend higher after its bullish breakout on 5 September 2025 and has not reached its overbought region (above 70). These observations suggest a potential bullish signal for the AUD/USD to break above 0.6700 (see Fig. 5).The yield spread between Australia’s 2-year sovereign bond and the US Treasury note has steadily narrowed from -0.55% on 1 August 2025 to -0.19% at the time of writing. This recent breakout above a 5-day descending resistance reinforces the bullish momentum in AUD/USD (see Fig. 4).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below 0.6620 key short-term support negates the bullish scenario on the AUD/USD to expose the next intermediate supports at 0.6580 and 0.6550. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 11Markets woke up to a fresh jolt after the US CPI release, which came in broadly as expected at 0.3% MoM, but nonetheless shifted sentiment.The immediate reaction saw the US Dollar tumble, only to settle back into its recent support range, leaving traders guessing on the next breakout. In contrast, US equities surged, with the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 pressing fresh all-time highs, as optimism for a 50 bps FOMC cut keeps creeping back into the picture. The FED Watchtool is showing mixed pricing for the upcoming meeting and participants now await for any comments from WSJ's Timiraos for any further signs.Ethereum and the broader crypto market, however, remain hesitant, unable to mirror the ecstatic risk appetite driving equities – consolidation continues, waiting for a stronger catalyst.Markets will now turn even more impatient for next week's FED Meeting (September 17th) amid the ongoing blackout period which prevents Federal Reserve speakers from commenting on Policy and Economic outlooks. Read More:Ethereum tries to gather momentum after the CPI reportUS Indices open higher after the US CPI report – Dow Jones and S&P 500 technical outlookA hesistant FX Market after the as-expected September CPI release – Technical levelsCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, September 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView Volatility in the past 24 hours has stayed relatively restrained despite initial strong reactions.Ethereum saw most if its gains before the 8:30 release. Consequently, Equities took the podium.Gold and US Bonds posted a strong initial reaction but gave back most of their games in a risk-asset rebalancing.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, September 11 – Source: OANDA Labs The US Dollar got rejected after the CPI which coincides again with the ongoing rate cut-pricing theme and finishes the lowest of majors after a gradual but persistent selloff.The DXY is still hanging at the lows of its most recent range. With the three sessions left before the biggest FOMC meeting in years, it will be interesting to see if participants end up taking a directional bet until then.The AUD is at the other end of the FX picture, seeing a consequent rise in the past two sessions and snatches new highs on the year against the US Dollar.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Some calm markets could be expected looking forward amid a lack of much market-changing data.Keep an eye on tomorrow's University-of-Michigan inflation expectations (10:00 A.M. ET) as today's CPI report will affect the way participants will consider forward looking tariff effects.GBP traders will have to stay awake for the 2 A.M. UK GDP report – This may provide a kicker to the dormant FX market.The action may just await for next Wednesday's FOMC to really get going again. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US equities surged again after the CPI release, with all major indices — S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones — notching fresh all-time highs.The US dollar has been struggling with rate markets are now progressively betting ofn a 50 bps FOMC cut, though expectations remain fluid.Indeed, the immediate post-CPI reactions took some of that pricing back, before re-upping the odds just above 10%.Players will now expect hints from journalists such as Wall Street Journal's Timiraos, the usual suspect for pre-FOMC FED insights.However, cryptocurrencies are lagging this risk-on rally.While Bitcoin rebounded since its past week $108,000 lows, Ethereum is still trying to regain upside momentum.The broader altcoin and crypto complex has yet to reflect the same strength seen in equities and other risk assets since the morning session.With traders now turning to next week’s FOMC decision, crypto markets await a progressing technical outlook.Let's peak at the current Crypto Market picture before diving in a multi-timeframe Ethereum analysis. Read More:US Indices open higher after the US CPI report – Dow Jones and S&P 500 technical outlookA hesistant FX Market after the as-expected September CPI release – Technical levelsThe Crypto Market picture in today's CPI session Crypto market overview, September 11, 2025 – Source: Finviz The Crypto picture is very mixed overall – watch other risk assets and market leaders (Solana in today's session) to spot how flows evolve.A multi-timeframe Ethereum analysisEthereum Daily Chart Ethereum Daily Chart, September 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView Since our last analysis of the second largest crypto, prices have consolidated above the 4,200 to 4,500 momentum pivot.Momentum has now decreased from extremely overbought levels back to right above neutral which allows for further potential action to develop.The combination of both price and momentum consolidation provides a floor for higher volatility in the upcoming weeks.Despite the lack of momentum, if sentiment stays positive as it is, ETH has formed a floor on which to bounce on.The balance to this potential outcome however would be a failure to rebound from here which can lead to a lower interest in cryptos, which would be detrimental for the digital asset Market.Momentum attracts momentum!Ethereum 1H Chart Ethereum 1H Chart, September 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking closer highlights how strong the ongoing range is.Buyers will have to maintain the upward trendline as a few breakout attempts got rejected during the ongoing session.Consolidating above $4,400 could provide the necessary boost for an upside breakout, but will require a concrete breakout above the consolidation highs (around the $4,500 level).Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:Consolidation Support 4,250 to 4,280$4,200 to $4,500 consolidation Zone (getting tested)$4,000 to $4,095 Main Long-run Pivot$3,500 Main Support ZoneResistance Levels:Consolidation resistance $4,480 to $4,500$4,950 Current new All-time highs$4,700 to $4,950 All-time high resistance zonePotential main resistance $5,230 Fibonacci extensionA look-back at the ETH/BTC chart ETH/BTC Daily Chart, September 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView Crypto market depth is currently stalling as translated by the most recent slowdown in the ETH/BTC ratio, however with the correction currently stalling, it will be time for crypto aficionados to flex their muscles to lift crypto market sentiment.A rise in the crypto ratio is typically favorable for the Market and with ETH's most recent top, other altcoins are looking at their big brother to get started again.On the other hand, Solana is still powering through. Keep an eye on the ETH/SOL relative performance.A potential rally from here due to the ongoing consolidation may change market dynamics, therefore keep a close eye on the general crypto market sentiment.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The euro is virtually unchanged on Thursday, trading at 1.1692 in the European session.ECB expected to maintain rates The European Central Bank meets later on Thursday and the money markets have priced in a hold at close to 100%, which would keep the key deposit rate at 2.0%. The ECB has cut rates by more than half since last July but has hinted that there is no rush to continue lowering rates.Has inflation in the eurozone become too much of a good thing? Inflation is under control, but there is now a risk of inflation undershooting the 2% target, which would put pressure on the ECB to respond by reducing rates. There are differing opinions within the ECB with regard to the impact of the US tariffs. The hawks,, who are against more rate cuts argue that the economy has weathered the tariffs well. The doves, who favor more cuts, are concerned that the tariffs are yet to be fully felt and could dampen growth. The money markets are in agreement with the hawks and don't anticipate another rate cut this year.All eyes on US CPI The US releases the August inflation report later on Thursday. CPI is expected to rise to 2.7% y/y from 2.9% y/y in July. Monthly, the market estimate is 0.3%, compared to 0.2% in July. Core CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 3.1% y/y and 0.3% m/m.The core rate is well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target but that isn't expected to stop the Fed from lowering rates next week for the first time since December 2024. Although a rate cut has been fully priced in, we could see downward pressure on the US dollar if the Fed cuts, especially if the Fed's tone at the meeting is dovish.The US economy is showing signs of cooling, especially the labor market. The August nonfarm payrolls fell to 22 thousand and annual revisions for the year prior to March 2025 were revised downwards by a massive 911 thousand, much more than expected. The weak nonfarm payrolls report has raised the odds of a half-point cut to 10%, with a 90% chance of a quarter-point reduction.EUR/USD Technical EURUSD tested resistance at 1.1703 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.1722. 1.1674 and 1.1655 are providing support EURUSD 1-Day Chart, September 11, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Tech Shares Lead the Way, SoftBank Up 9% Most Read: US CPI Preview: Implications for the DXY & Federal ReserveMajor benchmarks for Japan, South Korea, and mainland China increased, while those for Australia and Hong Kong decreased. MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index was unchanged following five straight days of increases.Japan's Nikkei .N225 gained 1.2% to hit a record as tech, energy and utilities firms jumped. South Korean shares .KS11 rose 0.6%. Asian technology stocks had a strong day, thanks to a huge surge in Oracle's stock. This boosted stock markets in Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea to new record highs, even though the session was expected to be quiet ahead of key U.S. inflation data.Japan's tech investor, SoftBank, saw its shares jump by 9% after its partner, Oracle, experienced its biggest one-day gain since 1992, soaring 36%. This brought the 48-year-old company close to a market value of $1 trillion.Oracle's success was due to its positive outlook on how artificial intelligence will increase demand for its cloud services. This caused a domino effect, leading to gains for almost all AI-related stocks in Asia, with the Nikkei index rising 1.2%, Taiwan's market up 1%, and Chinese blue-chip stocks gaining 1.8%. Source: LSEG European Open - Euro Shares Trickle Higher European stocks went up slightly as investors were being careful while they waited for two major announcements: the European Central Bank's decision on monetary policy and an important inflation report from the United States, both due later in the day.The overall European STOXX 600 index rose by 0.1% to 553.03 points. The personal and household goods sector led the gains, increasing by 0.5%.This sector was helped by a 1.5% rise in the share price of Kering, the company that owns Gucci. Kering announced that it will delay the full purchase of the Italian fashion brand Valentino until at least 2028. This decision pushed back an expensive deal that had been a burden on the heavily indebted company.On the FX front, The U.S. dollar index went up slightly by 0.1%, marking its third straight day of increases. The euro also saw a small gain, rising 0.04% to $1.1699.The dollar was flat against the Japanese yen, trading at 147.43 yen, following new data that showed Japanese wholesale prices rose 2.7% in the year up to August. This increase, which was faster than the previous month, suggests that inflation is becoming a persistent problem in Japan.The Australian dollar slipped 0.1% to 0.66095, pulling back from the highest levels it had reached since November on Wednesday. This happened as the prices of commodities like crude oil and gold gave up their recent gains.The offshore Chinese yuan strengthened slightly by 0.03%, trading at 7.1184 per dollar in early Asian trade. The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.1% to 0.5936.The British pound was unchanged for the day, trading at 1.3525.For more on the Euro, read USD/JPY Technical: Mild JPY strength detected ahead of US CPICurrency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices dropped a bit due to concerns about a weaker demand for oil in the US and the risk of too much oil being available on the market. However, the price decrease was not significant because of ongoing worries about attacks in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine.Brent crude futures went down by 11 cents, or 0.16%, to $67.38 per barrel. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell by 13 cents, or 0.2%, to $63.54 per barrel.For more on Oil prices, read Oil prices shoot up from a Donald Trump postGold prices went down slightly but remained close to their all-time highs. This happened as investors were waiting for new U.S. consumer inflation data, which is set to be released later in the day. This comes after recent producer price figures were weaker than expected, which has increased the belief that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.Spot gold was down 0.2%, trading at $3,632.48 per ounce. The price had reached a record high of $3,673.95 on Tuesday.For more information on Gold, read Gold (XAU/USD) Coils Ahead of US CPI… Are Bulls Exhausted?Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session will be busy as markets focus on the ECB rate decision due out today.Investors might not be fully considering the disagreements that some members of the European Central Bank (ECB) have with the idea that the economy is in a "good place," a view that has been promoted by President Christine Lagarde and other more aggressive members. However, recent public statements and a higher-than-expected core inflation rate now suggest that the ECB has probably finished its period of cutting interest rates.Attention will then turn to the US CPI release. August's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is being released today, and we expect a core inflation rate of 0.3% for the month, which aligns with what most people are predicting.This comes after yesterday's news that U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data was surprisingly weak, falling by 0.1% for both the main and core measures. July's numbers were also adjusted lower. A big reason for this was a significant drop in "trade services," which acts as a measure for company profits. This suggests that, for now, companies are absorbing higher costs from tariffs instead of passing them on to customers.This could be because companies are either worried about future consumer demand or they are trying to avoid a negative reaction from the public or politicians by not raising prices. In any case, it gives us more confidence that the new CPI data won't be higher than 0.3%. This would likely support the belief that the Federal Reserve will make three small interest rate cuts (25 basis points each) by the end of the year. Unless today's inflation numbers are much lower than expected, there won't be much talk about a larger 50-basis-point rate cut next week.For more on this, read US CPI Preview: Implications for the DXY & Federal Reserve For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE is eyeing a range break having been stuck in consolidation for the entire week.The 100-day MA still holding firm as support with a candle close above the red square on the chart likely leading to further upside.The FTSE did attempt a break yesterday morning but bulls failed to hold onto gains and close above the range.Looking at resistance ahead, yesterday's high at 9296 will be key before the 9309 and 9358 come into focus.Support is provided by the 100-day MA at 9233 before the 200-day MA at 9186 comes into focus.FTSE 100 Four-Hour Chart, September 3. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The recent movement of the USD/JPY has been very choppy as it continues to trade within a four-month-plus “Ascending Wedge” range configuration since its 22 April 2025 low of 139.89.The initial 0.8% intraday rally of the US dollar against the Japanese yen at the start of this week’s Asia session on Monday, 8 September 2025, to hit an intraday high of 148,58 has evaporated as the USD/JPY is now trading almost unchanged week-to-date as of Thursday, 11 September, at 147.40. Market participants have largely looked beyond the political uncertainty stemming from Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation, shifting their focus to factors that could shape the Bank of Japan’s ongoing monetary policy normalization path.Let’s examine these fundamental factors.Japan’s PPI is still evolving in an upward trend, a leading indicator of core-core CPI Fig. 1: Japan PPI & core-core CPI as of Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView) One of the key economic indicators that the BoJ monitors to formulate its monetary policy decision is Japan’s nationwide core-core CPI inflation trend (excluding fresh and energy).Interestingly, the trend of Japan’s producers’ price index (PPI), a gauge that measures companies’ input costs, has a lead time ahead of the core-core CPI.Based on past data, Japan’s PPI bottomed out and reversed upwards ahead of Japan’s core-core CPI inflation in August 2009, June 2016, May 2020, and most recently December 2023.The latest print of Japan’s PPI has started to firm up after a slowdown in growth of 4.3% y/y in March 2025. The PPI rose 2.7% y/y in August 2025, accelerating from 2.5% y/y in the previous month of July (see Fig. 1).Hence, a continuation of an upward growth trend in Japan’s PPI is likely to have a trickle-down effect on the core CPI inflation trend to allow it to trend higher above the BoJ’s long-term inflation target of 2%, in support of a continuation of the BoJ’s gradual interest rate hikes in place since March 2024.Overall, a supporting fundamental element that can assert upside pressure on the Japanese yen.Narrowing of the longer-term yield spread between US Treasury bonds and JGBs Fig. 2: 10-year and 2-year yield spreads of US Treasuries and JGBs as of 11 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) The 10-year sovereign bond yield of a country often serves as a key gauge of its long-term inflation outlook and economic growth prospects. A relative comparison of these expectations between two countries can be captured through the 10-year yield spread of their sovereign bonds.For instance, the yield spread between the 10-year US Treasury and the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) has been narrowing since October 2025, falling from 4.15% to the current level of 2.48%, just above a critical support at 2.47% (see Fig. 2).This narrowing suggests that US Treasuries have become relatively less attractive versus JGBs, reducing the yield premium in favour of the dollar. As a result, this dynamic may exert downside pressure on USD/JPY.Let’s now examine the USD/JPY from a technical analysis perspective to determine its short-term (1 to 3 days) trend bias and key levels to watch. Fig. 3: USD/JPY minor trend as of 11 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 4: USD/JPY medium-term trend as of 11 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Potential push down towards minor range support of 146.70/146.40 in place since 5 August 2025, with key short-term pivotal resistance at 148.75/148.95 (see Fig. 3).A break below 146.40 may trigger a further drop to test the medium-term “Ascending Wedge” range support of 145.95.Key elements The USD/JPY is stuck inside a medium-term “Ascending Wedge” range configuration in place since the 22 April 2025 low. The upper boundary/resistance of the range stands at 149.90, and the lower boundary/support of the range rests at 145.95 (see Fig. 4).The hourly RSI momentum has ticked up higher to 66, which is coming close to its overbought region (above 70), which suggests a potential imminent mean reversion downside movement for the USD/JPY within its range configuration.The USD/JPY is still trading below its key 200-day moving average, which is acting as a resistance at 148.75.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A clearance above 148.95 invalidates the bearish scenario for the USD/JPY and sees a squeeze up towards the key medium-term resistance of 149.70/149.90 (the upper boundary of the “Ascending Wedge”). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 10Tensions around the world keep increasing, with Russia sending 19 drones overnight to attack Poland from Belarus.A consequent diplomatic shower followed with the usual condemnations. However, what attracted attention was the "Here we go" post from US President Trump, awakening Markets, particularly in the precedingly dormant US Oil.A popular American conservative activist, Charlie Kirk, was also tragically shot at a rally in another round of political madness.Between a revolution in Nepal and France going through gigantic protests against French President Macron, economic uncertainty and a flood of negative headlines are awakening civil unrest around the globe.For good news however, US Producer Price inflation is far from as bad as expected as they regressed on a month-over-month basis (-0.1% vs 0.3% exp). This would help the FED in affirming that the effects from tariffs would have more of a short-term effect on inflation rather than a prolonged one.Most participants are still awaiting for tomorrow's CPI release as more stats will be taken into consideration for the extent of next week's FOMC rate cut. Read More:Bringing back the cuts to US and Canada, US CPI preview — North American mid-week Market updateChaos in Eastern Europe – Oil (WTI) prices lagging the move?Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, September 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Cryptos were the most appreciative of the good PPI report, however a story might be in the back of the huge pre-data rise (look at ETH and BTC around 7:30 A.M.) though I haven't been able to track its source.Oil did also see a large 1% rebound after the Trump tweet mentioned in the introduction.For the rest, equities seem to have lost some steam after a great beginning to the session (notably with Oracle shooting higher by 42% due to its expected huge cloud-generated profits). This particularly concerned European equities which got hurt from the not-too-great European sentiment and headlines.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, September 10 – Source: OANDA Labs Antipodeans (AUD and NZD) were the best performers of today's FX session, profiting from their regional position (they are pretty far from most of the madness happening in the Occident) and also receiving a boost of expected activity from the huge miss on the Chinese CPI data.More expected stimulus for China tends to positively impact the Kiwi and the Aussie as China is both NZ's and Australia's largest economic partner.The CHF, CAD and Euro however did not have as much fun, all finishing down against their peers in today's currency action.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. As the trading day concludes, attention shifts to the Pacific, specifically to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), where Deputy Governor Hawkesby is set to speak at 19:15 ET. His comments will be closely scrutinized for any indications regarding future monetary policy, especially considering the recent depreciation of the New Zealand dollar and the anticipated rate cut at the upcoming RBNZ meeting (October 8). However the real deal starts tomorrow, with the ECB Rate Decision at 8:15 (expected to hold rates at 2%) but most importantly, the US CPI (8:30 A.M. ET) which is feared to reflect past month's Produce Prices rise.Both the Headline and Core data are expected to rise by 0.3%.Euro traders will also have to focus on the following ECB Press conference for future indications, coming up at 8:45. The European Central Bank is not expected to cut anymore this year.Given the prevailing focus on U.S. inflation trends due to tariffs, tomorrow's session could mark significant asset repricing. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold prices are holding in and around the $3650/oz handle. The precious metal is benefitting from the perfect combination of political uncertainty, geopolitical risk and of course Fed rate cut bets.Russia Conflict Sees Nato Trigger Article 4... What Next? On Wednesday, Poland, with help from its NATO allies, shot down what they believed to be Russian drones that had entered Polish airspace. This is the first time a NATO country has fired shots during the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Poland's Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, told parliament that this was "the closest we have been to open conflict since World War Two." However, he also added that he doesn't believe they are on the verge of war.Tusk called the incident a "large-scale provocation" and said he had activated Article Four of NATO's treaty, under which alliance members can demand consultations with their allies.Moscow has denied responsibility for the attack. The Russian Defence Ministry said its drones carried out strikes on military targets in Western UkraineSo far nothing much has changed except an increase in haven demand and a rise in Oil prices. If NATO does decide to respond in some way that could be seen as aggression by Russia, Gold could be set for further gains.This is definitely worth monitoring. For a full breakdown of events, read Chaos in Eastern Europe – Oil (WTI) prices lagging the move?Other Factors Supporting Gold Prices The Israel attack on Qatar yesterday has also added to the risk premium while political turmoil in France has done the same. Hence why I am saying we are currently seeing the perfect cocktail for Gold prices to remain elevated.Add to that the expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts which received a boost as US PPI data came in well below expectations.For more on the PPI data today, read Breaking News: US core PPI rises by 2.8% Y/Y in August vs 3.5% expectedMarkets will be focused on the US CPI inflation numbers out tomorrow while the discussions between NATO members may also factor into where gold prices head to next. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD) From a technical standpoint, Gold continues to hover near its all time highs.Momentum indicators are all in sync with the current bullish narrative with a selloff proving elusive thus far.The one positive for potential short sellers comes from the fact that the PPI data and downward revisions to the job numbers did not push Gold beyond the $3700/oz handle.This suggests that we could get a pullback toward the $3600/oz before Gold is able to gain acceptance above the $3700/oz handle.Downside support may be found at the recent swing low at the $3620 handle before $3600 comes into focus.A move to fresh all time highs will have to gain acceptance beyond the $3700 handle if the bullish rally continues. This may require further geopolitical risk or a really big downside miss by the US CPI data.Gold (XAU/USD) 30M Chart, September 10, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Client Sentiment Data - XAU/USD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Short on Gold with 59% of traders net-short. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that the majority of traders are net-short suggests that Gold prices could continue to rise in the near-term.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.This week, some data dampened the economic outlook for both the US and Canada. The past four months didn't show much in that aspect, and participants started to believe that tariffs wouldn't influence activity that much.However, it seems that the markets were too optimistic for North America. August gave a first warning sign, with the US Non-Farm Payrolls showing the first crack in the labor market, which was confirmed by last Friday's report.Canada is also struggling with a regressing GDP in the second quarter, undoubtedly due to downbeat employment figures (-60K in August) and pressure from tariffs on key exports such as metals (aluminum, steel) and lumber.The degrading economic outlook and slowdown in hiring are essentially bringing back hopes for cuts with a 90% priced-in Bank of Canada reduction (from 2.75% to 2.50%) at the upcoming meeting on the same day as the FOMC, September 17th.For the Federal Reserve, a much-anticipated cut should also finally take place (Rates are currently at 4.50%), and the question from which we will get an answer tomorrow is:Will Consumer Prices take a significant bump, barring the way for a 50 bps cut?Any release below the expected 0.30% raise should flush the US Dollar, and markets would heavily lean towards a 50 bps (currently at 10% pricing).On the other hand, a beat should leave the 25 bps in check but reduce odds for cuts at subsequent meetings (2 meetings after this one: October and December). Read More:USDJPY outlook: Japanese yen holds strong on PM Ishiba’s resignationChaos in Eastern Europe – Oil (WTI) prices lagging the move? Let's dive right into a few charts to get an overview on North American Markets, from US and Canadian equity Markets performance, USD and CAD performance to USDCAD and DXY charts.North-American Indices Performance North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – September 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Same as in previous weeks, the TSX just seems to absolutely disregard the downbeat economic data.Never forget that equities are forward looking and cut expectations in an economy that is still far from in shambles and expected to grow in the decades to come attract buying.US Markets are still holding resiliently against the streak of downbeat employment data also lifted by hopes for increased rate cuts.All indices have marked new record highs in today's session actually but have since seen some profit-taking flows ahead of tomorrow's inflation report.Dollar Index 8H Chart Dollar Index 8H Chart, September 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is holding its range as neither the NFP or this morning's PPI have changed the outlook for future rate cuts.This puts that much emphasis on tomorrow's CPI report which should be one of the most important one in years. Get ready!With the range still holding, I invite you to check out our most recent Dollar Index analysis to spot your levels of interest for the USD.US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors USD vs other Majors, September 10, 2025 - Source: TradingView. The action in the US Dollar has stayed stubbornly rangebound.The latest downward revisions to the US Labor data since March 2025 (you can check out the report right here) had initially hurt the USD, but as can be seen in the latest rebound, buyers have held its bid at new range extremes.War headlines around the world still maintain somewhat of a US Dollar demand which slightly reduced after this morning's welcomed PPI report (are tariff-related price hikes really just a one-off??)Expect high swings for the USD tomorrow as markets will look to confirm the outcome of next week's FOMC.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors CAD vs other Majors, September 10, 2025 - Source: TradingView. The Loonie couldn't hold its past week's strength with the aggressively low employment figures released last Friday. This week has been atrocious for the Maple Dollar.Check out the technicals for the Canadian Dollar against its major counterparts as the CAD gets at the brink of new extreme lows.With more cuts expected ahead, it will be very interesting to see what the Bank of Canada will have to say at next week's meeting. The BoC would also love a higher rate cut from the USD to help with the CAD's current downfall.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD USDCAD 4H Chart, September 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView USDCAD has freshly marked some highs at similar levels as the August 26th top, but seems to be consolidating at the current daily peak.It will be very interesting to spot the reactions for the US Dollar and if an eventually stronger USD would also assist the CAD on its perpetual descent.Levels to place on your USDCAD charts:Resistance Levels:1.3925 August 22 highs (most recent peak)1.3850 to 1.3860 Main resistance (1.38670 daily highs)May Highs 1.40185Support Levels:immediate Pivot 1.38 Handle +/- 150 pipsKey longer-term pivot Zone 1.3750Main Support Zone 1.3675 to 1.3686Another invitation (in case you missed the first one) to check out our latest USDCAD analysis!US and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar With Markets not budging much from the consequent NFP and PPI reports, everything will depend on tomorrow's US CPI release (8:30 A.M. ET).With 0.3% expected for both the Headline and Core, reactions will have to be monitored closely as Markets will jump around in all directions.To guide you with tomorrow's volatility, track the Dollar Index, the FEDWatch Tool (for Interest rate expectations) and the 2-year yield.For the rest, look at the usual equity sentiment.Except for tomorrow's US CPI, some other less-relevant data may still move markets with the Weekly jobless claims tomorrow, Canadian capacity utilization on Friday (8:30) and the following University-of-Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 A.M.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Stocks Advance Most Read: US CPI Preview: Implications for the DXY & Federal ReserveAsian stock markets went up on Wednesday, following a similar trend on Wall Street. This happened because traders are becoming more confident that the US Federal Reserve will lower interest rates next week, as the US job market seems to be weakening.In Japan, the Nikkei stock average rose by 0.8%, while South Korea's KOSPI increased by 1.7%. Taiwan's stock market also did well, climbing 1.5% to reach a new all-time high. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was up 1.3%, and mainland Chinese blue-chip stocks rose by 0.3%.The Bank of Japan is expected to announce its policy decision next Friday, and it is widely believed they will not raise interest rates yet. There have been conflicting reports, with one from Reuters suggesting the central bank might wait longer to tighten policy, while Bloomberg reported that a rate hike could still happen this year.Investors are also paying attention to political developments. They are watching to see who will become Japan's next prime minister after Shigeru Ishiba and are observing the political situation in France, which recently got its fifth prime minister in two years.China CPI Falls -0.4% Consumer prices in China dropped by 0.4% compared to the previous year. This was a bigger drop than expected and the fifth time this year that prices have gone down. It was also the sharpest decline since February. The main reason for this was a significant 4.3% decrease in food prices, the biggest drop in almost four years. Pork prices, in particular, fell sharply because there was plenty of supply, lower production costs, and weak consumer demand.On the other hand, prices for non-food items rose by 0.5%, which was a faster increase than in July. This was helped by government subsidies for consumer goods. Prices went up for housing, clothing, healthcare, and education. Transport costs also decreased, but not as much as they did in July.When you look at core inflation, which doesn't include food and energy, prices rose by 0.9%. This was the highest increase in 18 months. On a month-to-month basis, overall consumer prices stayed flat, which was also less than what experts had predicted.European Open - Zara Owner Inditex Rises 6% On Wednesday, European stocks went up, with retailers leading the way. This happened after Inditex, the big Spanish fashion company that owns Zara, released its second-quarter earnings. Inditex's shares climbed by 6% because the company reported that its sales were picking up before the fall season, even though its second-quarter sales weren't as strong as expected.The overall STOXX 600 index for Europe rose by 0.4%, staying close to its highest point in two weeks.Shares of Novo Nordisk also increased by nearly 2% after the Danish company, which makes the weight-loss drug Wegovy, announced a plan to restructure and cut about 11.5% of its employees. This move is expected to save the company around $1.26 billion each year as it faces tough competition in the weight-loss drug market.European technology stocks also had a good day. German software company SAP and Dutch company ASML both saw their shares rise by about 1% each. This was in response to Oracle's announcement that it expects to receive more than half a trillion dollars in future cloud orders. Oracle's shares listed in Frankfurt also shot up by 30%.On the FX front, The euro remained mostly unchanged, trading at $1.17115, after a 0.5% drop in the last session. The British pound was at $1.3534, and the Japanese yen was flat at 147.41 per dollar.The Australian dollar gained 0.3%, reaching $0.66065, and is close to the seven-week high it hit on Tuesday.The U.S. dollar index, which compares the dollar to six other major currencies, was stable at 97.834 after a 0.3% gain on Tuesday. So far in 2025, the index is down about 10% because of unpredictable U.S. trade policies and the expectation that interest rates will be cut, which has made the dollar less attractive to investors.For more on the Euro, read AUD/USD Technical: Further Aussie rally towards major resistance, supported by firmer China core inflationCurrency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs On Wednesday, oil prices increased due to two main events. First, Israel attacked Hamas leaders in Qatar. Second, US President Donald Trump urged European countries to place taxes on those who buy Russian oil. However, a generally weak outlook for the market prevented prices from rising even more.As a result, Brent crude oil futures went up by 61 cents, or 0.92%, to $67 per barrel. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also rose by 61 cents, or 0.97%, to $63.24 per barrel.For more on Oil prices, read WTI Oil Rallies 1.8% as Russian Supply Concerns Outweigh Modest OPEC + Output HikeOn Wednesday, the price of gold went up, staying above $3,600 per ounce. This increase was driven by the belief that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this month. Investors are also waiting for important inflation reports that are scheduled to be released this week.Spot gold rose by 0.5% to $3,644.54 per ounce, after reaching a record high of $3,673.95 on Tuesday. Meanwhile, US gold futures for December delivery remained unchanged at $3,683.Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session will be quiet with a speech by SNB Chairman Schlegel before attention turns to US PPI data.US PPI data will definitely be interesting following last month's uptick. This comes a day after the -991k jobs revision announced yesterday. Market concerns around inflation remain in play even if the labor market is the main focus.Signs that producer prices are rising may stoke growth and demand fears which should now firmly be in the mind of market participants.Markets will also wait on more news around the Fed and the back and forth between the Trump administration and Fed policymaker Lisa Cook.A federal judge on Tuesday made a temporary decision to stop President Donald Trump from firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. This is an initial defeat for the White House in a legal dispute that could challenge the Federal Reserve's long-standing independence.U.S. District Judge Jia Cobb's preliminary ruling stated that the Trump administration's accusations that Cook committed mortgage fraud before she was in office were probably not a strong enough reason to remove her from her position. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - DAX Index From a technical standpoint, the DAX is eyeing a break of the 100-day MA which could facilitate a return to the psychological 24000 handle.The period-14 RSI is approaching the 50 neutral level with a break above seen as a sign that momentum is shifting to bullish.The index has been struggling to gain acceptance above the 100-day MA over the last 5 days.Will today be the day?DAX Daily Chart, September 10. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Closing at $45,675, up +0.32%, the Dow Jones 30 has renewed recent highs in today’s session, breaking above previously held consolidation at around $45,642.Dow Jones 30 (DJIA): Key takeaways from today’s session Up around 7.00% year-to-date, recent developments suggesting the Fed will cut in their upcoming decision are benefiting US equity pricingWhile interest rate cuts stand to benefit Dow Jones pricing, weak jobs data and a potential for infamous ‘stagflation’ could limit upside in the medium termDow Jones 30 (DJIA): Interest rate cut predictions boost Dow Jones pricing Although playing second fiddle to the tech-dominant Nasdaq-100 for much of 2025, the Dow Jones remains around ~7.83% year-to-date, even with zero interest rate cuts, which, on paper, would be negative for index pricing.As we all know by now, this could be about to change; most predict that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps in their upcoming decision, while others are even expecting a cut of 50 bps in response to poor US labour data. CME FedWatch, 08/09/2025 While the latter remains unlikely compared to a more tame approach, what is more certain is that a Fed rate cut is undeniably positive for the Dow Jones, with the benefit of holding dollars instead of investing set to be lowered for the first time in 2025.It should be noted that despite the Fed's choice of tight monetary policy, the Dow Jones has performed fairly well this year, all things considered. While we can expect some short-term upside from expectations of rate cuts, the proof in the metaphorical pudding will be how data reacts to a change in interest rates, especially regarding inflation and labour dataDow Jones 30 (DJIA): Stagflation fears and poor labour data cast doubt over upside With poor labour data having virtually cemented the chances of an interest rate cut next week, markets are keenly watching upcoming US inflation data releases to understand whether fears of ‘stagflation’ are justified: Core Producer Price Index (MoM) (Aug), Wednesday, September 10th, 08:30 ETCore Producer Price Index (YoY) (Aug), Wednesday, September 10th, 08:30 ETProducer Price Index (MoM) (Aug), Wednesday, September 10th, 08:30 ETProducer Price Index (YoY) (Aug), Wednesday, September 10th, 08:30 ETCore Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Aug), Thursday, September 11th, 08:30 ETCore Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug), Thursday, September 11th, 08:30 ETConsumer Price Index (MoM) (Aug), Thursday, September 11th, 08:30 ETConsumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug), Thursday, September 11th, 08:30 ET It’s important to remember that, even if interest rates are to be cut, sentiment and general confidence in the US economy will be the most significant determining factor in equity performance in the near future.As such, labour and inflation data remain as crucial as ever. When considering the Fed’s dual mandate, here are a couple possible outcomes in the next few months: Lower rates boost jobs growth while inflation starts to fallIf a decision to cut rates is made, and the labour market responds well, while inflation starts to fall, we can consider this the best possible outcome. Naturally, this would substantially boost belief in the US economy, which would be US equity positiveLower rates fail to promote jobs growth, while inflation remains stubbornIf the Federal Reserve decides to cut rates and the labour market responds poorly while inflation proves stubborn, this would be a very difficult position to maintain. While further rate cuts would potentially help the labour market, maintaining or even hiking rates would better control inflation, making monetary policy decisions difficult. In this scenario, we can expect higher levels of market uncertainty, which would be generally US equity negative Dow Jones 30 (US30USD), OANDA, TradingView, 09/09/2025 Read more of today’s coverage from MarketPulse: US CPI Preview: Implications for the DXY & Federal Reserve Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The CPI outlook looks shaky and this week's print may show a rise of about 0.3% this past month, which could lift the annual rate to roughly 2.9%. Some analysts even think it might hit 3% year‑over‑year.The boost seems tied to higher food and energy costs. One estimate even points to a 2% jump in gas prices month‑to‑month, therefore pressure stays on and shoppers likely notice higher costs at checkout.US Core CPI Debate The real debate, though, centers on core CPI numbers – the ones that leave out the wild food and energy swings. Different analysts see two paths ahead. One camp thinks we’ll see a 0.3 % rise from month to month, which would leave the annual rate stuck around 3.1 %. The other, more cautious group, pictures a 0.4 % jump, the biggest since January and the second biggest in almost two years. That tiny gap between 0.3 and 0.4 isn’t just a math detail; it could change how we read inflation.A 0.3 increase might still be called “sticky,” yet it could be part of a rough but steady slowdown in price growth. A 0.4 rise, however, seems to signal a clear push back up, shaking the idea that inflation is finally easing.If that happens, the question is will the Fed change its policy stance? My answer is no but markets would probably react quickly, and investors might demand higher yields on bonds. Source: TradingEconomics Underlying Drivers: Where the Inflationary Pressures Originate The rise in inflation looks like it will be spread across many items, not just a few. A bounce back in core goods prices may add about 0.25 % from month to month, which could push the annual rate up to its biggest point since May 2023. Parts of this push could be new cars, clothing, sports gear, and even phones or tablets.At the same time, the hoped‑for relief from slower service inflation appears to be fading. Forecasts suggest core services might go up roughly 0.30 % in August, with travel‑related services—especially hotel costs—showing a strong climb of around 1.0 %. This broader strength in both goods and services therefore hints that price pressures are no longer limited to narrow sectors but may be more rooted in the overall economy.Policymakers will be watching these trends closely even as the labor market dominates the discussion at the moment.The Fed’s Policy Puzzle: A Rough Road Ahead The road ahead for the Federal Reserve is expected to be a bumpy one. Concerns about Fed independence, worsening labor market conditions and political drama will keep the Fed the center of attention for the remainder of 2025.As things stand, the labor market is going to be the center of focus for now. However, if inflation begins to rise again as tariffs begin to start filtering through and companies pass the increases to consumers, inflation could play a much bigger role later in the year.Potential Implications for the US Dollar and Rate Cut Expectations Two things mainly push the dollar when a CPI report comes out. First, interest‑rate gaps – the difference between U.S. Treasury yields and the yields you see in other countries. Those gaps decide where money moves.Second, Fed‑policy guesses – how people see the chances of the Fed raising or lowering rates. Those guesses shift the gaps. When CPI numbers change what folks expect the Fed will do, they also change how attractive U.S. assets look. That can lift the dollar or drop it.When the CPI looks “hot” – say the core number is 0.4 % or higher – it hints that inflation is still strong. That may mean the Fed will keep tightening or even go harder. Traders then want more dollars, Treasury yields climb, and the DXY (the dollar index) usually goes up. At the same time, stocks can feel pressure because borrowing costs look higher.But a “cool” CPI – core 0.3 % or lower – suggests price growth is slowing. The market may turn more dovish, thinking the Fed could pause or cut rates sooner. Lower expected yields make the dollar less tasty, so it often slides down. Treasury yields tend to fall, and risk assets like equities might get a boost from cheaper money. In short, the dollar’s move is a straight line from CPI‑driven belief changes to interest‑rate gaps, then to the dollar’s strength.What could happen based on those ideas:Hot CPI (core 0.4 %+): Dollar likely goes up against other currencies (DXY climbs); Treasury yields rise; stocks may drop.Cool or Neutral CPI (core ≤0.3 %): Dollar may sell off; Treasury yields fall; equities could rally.If the CPI lands right at the expected 0.3 % core, markets sometimes do a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” trick. If people already priced in a hawkish Fed, the on‑target number can cause a quick, technical dip in the dollar. That shows why the headline number and how it differs from consensus both matter.So, in the current climate markets are expecting a slight uptick in inflation. Meaning if we do get a softer print, the immediate reaction could see the probability of a 50 bps rate cut on September 17 rise. This will lead to a selloff in the US Dollar but is unlikely to last as markets will likely cool off once the data has been fully digested.US Equities may attract a lot of interest as they have continued to rise in recent trading sessions. I expect that the volatility we see with US equities will outweigh volatility elsewhere irrespective of whether the data is positive or negative.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, September 9, 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 9The past few days have awakened another wave of uncertainty in the Middle East. Israel has led attacks against Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar.These headlines have stirred up further tensions with many political leaders denouncing the attack – The US was apparently not warned and Qatari air defenses hadn't seen any warning of air intrusion (bizarre).Oil surprisingly hasn't budged at all from the news – either the Market totally discounts war headlines anymore or participants estimate that this would not escalate.In North-America, labor markets seem to keep degrading from the tense Tariff policies as the (not-very market moving) US BLS employment revisions sent another degrading picture of the US labor market.Total employment creation since March 2025 has corrected by above 900K.The initial reaction was one of a USD short-lived correcrion and indices doubting at their relative highs.However, participants are starting to truly believe in bigger cuts, as US Indices finish the day at their daily highs. Read More:Dollar Index (DXY) faces a key test from upcoming PPI and CPI – potential reactionsCanadian Dollar under pressure from soft employment figures – CAD outlookCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, September 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Markets offer us a very unusual asset picture today: Gold, US Bonds and cryptocurrencies are down while Equities and the US Dollar both finish green.This comes even after the revised data and the Middle-East headlines. Markets are not considering war headlines anymore!A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, September 9 – Source: OANDA Labs The US Dollar saw a V-shape reversal overnight saving the currency from a range breakdown.The JPY and Japanese Stock indices also seem to really power through since PM Ishiba's resignation.On the other side of a reawakening FX picture, the CHF and the Euro are at the bottom of today's list.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tonight will see the release of China’s inflation prints at 21:30 ET. These numbers will feed directly into an actual Chinese economic recovery amid growing deflation.The real spotlight however falls on Wednesday’s U.S. session.At 08:30 A.M. ET, the market will receive a full set of PPI data (both headline and core expected at 0.3%) for August.Coming just a day before CPI, these figures carry heavy weight in shaping inflation expectations and should stir volatility across both bonds and FX.Finally, the evening session brings attention back to the Pacific, where at 19:15 ET, RBNZ’s Deputy Governor Hawkesby is scheduled to speak.His remarks will be closely monitored for any policy clues, particularly given the recent pressures on the New Zealand dollar and the cut already priced in for the next meeting.With U.S. inflation dynamics in the spotlight and central bank commentary closing the day, tomorrow’s session holds the potential for meaningful repricing across global markets. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Canadian Dollar is under renewed selling pressure, currently ranking the second-worst performing major currency in 2025 after the US Dollar. The combination of a degrading domestic economy and ongoing tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on the loonie, leaving traders skeptical about near-term upside. Canada’s most recent GDP release confirmed sluggish growth, underscoring the drag from weaker domestic activity., with this bringing Bank of Canada cuts back to the table (close to 90% priced in) in spite of a core inflation still at 3.0%A surprising upbeat employment data in June did not generate enough traction for Canada to maintain its employment at higher levels, particularly when looking at Friday's -60K release. Canadian Employment in 2025, September – Source: TradingEconomics, Statistiques Canada The data reflects how US tariff pressures slow hiring momentum and tighten activity across key sectors. The unemployment rate in Canada is now at 7.1%, and its growth in the past month is something to watch.With these trends converging, the loonie remains vulnerable. This phenomenon aggravates, especially as European currencies in the GBP, CHF, and most strongly the Euro, have shown their best performance in years.Many CAD pairs at are key levels, let's spot a few of them to see if technicals could assist the Canadian currency – USDCAD / EURCAD / CADJPY. Read More: Dollar Index (DXY) faces a key test from upcoming PPI and CPI – potential reactionsBLS revisions dampen a decent crypto altcoin session – SOL, XRP, DOGE and ADA analysisCanadian Dollar pairs technical analysisUSDCAD – approaching its main resistance USDCAD 4H Chart, September 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView The North-American pair has been stuck in a 700 pip range since the 4th of September and despite not breaking the previous monthly highs yet, Greenback buyers are making a push.The momentum is pretty strong and not overbought yet which may be enough to at least test the 1.3854 Friday highs.Traders might still await more clarity from Data before pushing the US Dollar higher as the USD re-enters its range. Levels to place on your USDCAD charts:Resistance Levels:1.3925 August 22 highs (most recent peak)1.3850 to 1.3860 Main resistance (1.3854 Friday highs)May Highs 1.40185Support Levels:immediate Pivot 1.38 Handle +/- 150 pipsKey longer-term pivot Zone 1.3750Main Support Zone 1.3675 to 1.3686EURCAD – just made new highs but momentum slows EURCAD 4H Chart, September 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Despite being at the pairs' yearly highs, RSI momentum is indicating a short-term switch in Momentum in EURCAD.The Euro had rebounded spectacularly from August lows against other majors, which attracted further momentum in the pair after last Friday's Canadian data. The yearly peak attained this morning is at 1.6258.Sellers will have to show up in the pair to complete an ascending wedge formation, with a failure to do so pointing to a test of the July 2009 1.63 resistance zone, a level not seen in over 16 years.Watch for the current reactions as short-term mean reversion is bringing the pair below August highs. The immediate 8H candle is a doji and key Moving Averages are holding almost 1,000 pip below.Levels to place on your EURCAD charts:Resistance Levels:1.6258 current highs1.62 and Yearly highs resistance1.63 psychological resistance1.6320 July 2009 highsSupport Levels:1.61 Key pivot zone (confluence with 50-period MA)Support for higher trend 1.59July Lows around 1.58CADJPY – Broke its upward trend from May but arriving at key support CADJPY 8H Chart, September 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Loonie was looking strong against the JPY which had also been hurting from diverging rates – However, a double top marked in the pair led to a strong selloff.Since last Friday, sellers have brought the pair back to its immediate support at the 106.35 zone (+/- 50 pips) and undecisive mean-reversion might be looking to form.With Markets awaiting for key US data, FX might be stuck until then. Buyers failing to hold the immediate support would point to further downside in the pair.Levels to place on your CADJPY charts:Resistance Levels:Pivot Zone and key Moving averages 107.00September highs 108.002025 High resistance 108.70 to 109.00Support Levels:Immediate Support 106.35Main Support 105.00Next key Support/Pivot 103.30 to 103.80Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Australian dollar continues to propel higher. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6618, up 0.40% on the day. The Aussie has shot up 1.5% since Thursday and is trading at six-week highs.Australian consumer, business confidence slideAustralia's consumer and business confidence have taken a hit, pointing to pessimism over the economic outlook. The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index fell 3.1% m/m in September, after a strong 5.7% gain in August. Westpac said that the index is back in "cautiously pessimistic" territory. Consumers remain uneasy over high interest rates, as the Reserve Bank has been slow to lower rates. The Westpac survey found that consumers are more concerned about unemployment and less likely to purchase a major household item.The NAB Business Confidence Index also headed lower, falling in August to 4 points, down from 8 in July. This marked a three-month low. Still, business conditions showed improvement and forward orders moved higher.Will the RBA lower rates?The Reserve Bank of Australia is coming off a quarter-point rate cut and meets next on September 30. The money markets don't expect a cut in September, as GDP rose in Q2 to 1.8% from 1.4% and core inflation jumped to 2.7% in July, up from 2.1%. A stronger economy and higher inflation will make it more difficult for the RBA to lower rates.We could see a rate cut in November and further easing early in the new year. Much will depend on the direction of inflation, the strength of the labor market, and the health of the Chinese economy.In the US, the Federal Reserve is poised to deliver a rate hike next week for the first time since December 2024. The weak nonfarm payrolls report has raised the likelihood of a half-point cut to 12%, with a quarter-point cut priced in at 88%, according to CME's FedWatch.AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6612. Next, there is resistance at 0.66320.6579 and 0.6559 are providing support AUDUSD 1-Day Chart, September 9, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Breaches 44000 Most Read: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Eyes Further Gains as Strategy Expands Holding and ETF Flows Remain StrongThe market shrugged off political uncertainty and rose for a fifth day as optimism about US interest rate reduction spread to Asia, fuelling a buying binge in technology shares.The MSCI all-country stock index was on track to reach another record high. In Asia, tech companies like TSMC and Alibaba helped stock markets rise. South Korean, Taiwanese, and Hong Kong shares went up, but Indonesian shares fell after the long-serving finance minister was dismissed. On Tuesday, Japan's Nikkei went above 44,000 for the first time ever. This was driven by optimism about a new trade deal and the possibility of more government spending.The Nikkei 225 Index jumped by as much as 1.24% to a record high of 44,185.73 during early trading. However, some investors sold their shares to take profits, causing the index to fall back slightly to 43,732.80 by midday, a 0.2% gain.The broader Topix index was up by 0.06% at midday, after earlier rising by 0.77%.Japan's lead trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, announced on X (formerly Twitter) on Tuesday that U.S. tariffs on Japanese cars will be lowered by September 16. This clarifies a trade deal that was made in July.Shares continued to rise, following strong gains on Monday after the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who was known for being fiscally conservative. News agency Kyodo reported on Monday that Sanae Takaichi, a supporter of government spending and easier monetary policy, has decided to run for the leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party.Stocks related to semiconductors rallied, following gains by their U.S. counterparts like Broadcom. This was supported by Broadcom's statement last Thursday that it expects strong revenue growth from artificial intelligence.The biggest gainer on the Nikkei was Advantest, a company that makes chip-testing equipment and supplies Nvidia. Its shares rose by more than 7%.Other stocks that saw notable increases were chip-making tool manufacturers Screen Holdings, which jumped 3.74%, and Tokyo Electron, which gained nearly 2%. Sony's stock also advanced by about 2%.European Open - French Politics Casts a Shadow After seeing gains during regular trading on Monday, European stock futures went down slightly.Specifically, futures for the EUROSTOXX 50 index dropped by 0.2%. Futures for the FTSE and DAX indexes also dipped, by 0.13% and 0.26% respectively.Over the last few days, markets have been through several major political events. In Britain, Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner resigned, and in Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stepped down. In France, lawmakers voted to remove Prime Minister Francois Bayrou from office. Argentina's President Javier Milei's party faced a significant loss, and Indonesia unexpectedly replaced its long-time finance minister.Investors in Europe are now waiting to see who French President Emmanuel Macron will choose as the country's fifth prime minister in less than two years.So far, Macron has not chosen to call an early election and seems determined to name a new prime minister, potentially from a center-left political party.There are no rules dictating who Macron must pick or how quickly he has to make the decision, but his office has said he will appoint someone in the next few days.Despite this political uncertainty, the price of French government bond futures in Asia has changed very little.On the FX front, the U.S. dollar index dropped to a low of 97.323 during trading in Asia, its weakest point since July 24.The euro gained 0.1% during trading in Asia, reaching a value of up to 1.1778, which is its highest level since July 24.The Japanese yen became stronger against the dollar, reversing its weakness from Monday, after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigned. The yen was 0.3% stronger at 147.125 yen to the dollar as people began to speculate on who would be the next leader.In other currencies, the Australian dollar rose by 0.2% to $0.6606, while the New Zealand dollar also went up by 0.2% to 0.5949. The offshore Chinese yuan was 0.1% stronger at 7.1193 yuan per dollar, and the British pound rose by 0.2% to 1.3576 so far today.For more on the Euro, read EUR/USD Technical: Euro bullish breakout, what’s next?Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices went up on Tuesday, continuing their gains. This was because the oil-producing group OPEC+ announced a smaller production increase than what many people expected. At the same time, there are ongoing worries that potential new sanctions on Russia could tighten the global oil supply.Brent crude oil rose by 0.77% to $66.53 per barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed by 0.8% to $62.76 per barrel.For more on Oil prices, read WTI Oil Rallies 1.8% as Russian Supply Concerns Outweigh Modest OPEC + Output HikeGold prices reached a new record high on Tuesday. The price was boosted by a weaker U.S. dollar and a drop in bond yields. Demand for gold increased because there are now stronger expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month.The price of gold was up 0.2% at $3,642.09 per ounce, after it had previously hit an all-time high of $3,659.10 earlier in the day. US gold futures for December delivery also rose slightly by 0.1% to $3,682.10.Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session will be quiet with a couple of Central Bank policymakers from the Euro Area, SNB and BoE speaking.Beyond that markets will keep an eye on political developments in France, as well as an Apple event later in the day which could affect Apple and US stock indices. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - DAX Index From a technical standpoint, the DAX has been stuck in consolidation the last few days and remains in a channel.At present price is in the middle of the channel and is currently testing the 100-day MA which is serving as resistance.A clean break of this level could lead the index toward the top end of the channel with resistance at 24000 and 24080 respectively.A failure to do so could the index revisit the recent lows around the 23470 handle before the lower end of the channel around 23212 comes into focus.DAX Daily Chart, September 9. 2025 Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior report, “EUR/USD Technical: Euro on the brink of a medium-term bullish breakout”, published on 1 September 2025.The EUR/USD has formed the expected bullish breakout above the former medium-term descending trendline resistance, which was in place from the 1 July 2025 high, and rallied by 0.8% to print an intraday high of 1.1778 on Tuesday, 9 September, during the Asia session at the time of writing. After last Friday's, 5 September, weaker-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data print for August, this week’s key risk events that are likely to trigger a significant volatile movement in the EUR/USD will be the ECB monetary policy decision cum ECB President Lagarde’s press conference, and the release of the US core CPI inflation rate for August, both of them taking place around the same time on Thursday, 11 September between 12.15 pm to 12.45 pm GMT.ECB is likely to signal the end of its interest rate cut cycle Fig. 1: The Eurozone/US implied policy interest rate curve spread with EUR/USD as of 9 Sep 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to leave its deposit facility rate unchanged at 2% for the second consecutive policy meeting this Thursday.Latest data from monthly implied future policy rate curves, derived from short-term interest rate futures for both the Eurozone and the US, suggest a high probability that the ECB has reached the end of its current rate-cut cycle.The Eurozone/US implied policy interest rate curve spread has inched higher to -1.97% in October 2025, from -2.33% in September 2025, and rose steadily in the next few months to -1.62% by January 2026. Also, the curve spread has shifted upwards from three months ago (see Fig. 1).A pause in the ECB’s rate-cut cycle, combined with expectations of an imminent Fed dovish pivot, suggests the euro is likely to continue appreciating against the greenback in the medium term.Let’s now examine the latest technical factors on the EUR/USD to determine the next potential short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory and its key levels to watch ahead of the ECB’s monetary policy decision and the release of the US core CPI inflation data. Fig. 2: EUR/USD minor trend as of 9 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Maintain bullish bias with key short-term pivotal support at 1.1700 for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 1.1830 and 1.1890/1.1910 (also a Fibonacci extension cluster and the upper boundary of the minor ascending channel from 1 August 2025 low).Key elements The price action of the EUR/USD has reintegrated above its 20-day moving average since last Friday, 5 September, which supports the ongoing minor bullish impulsive up move sequence.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has not displayed a bearish divergence condition at its overbought zone, suggesting that the short-term bullish momentum remains intact.The yield spread between the 2-year German Bund and the US Treasury note has continued to narrow further after its bullish breakout on Thursday, 28 August. It narrowed to a current level of -1.57% from -1.68% on last Wednesday, 3 September. This development indicates a relative decline in the yield attractiveness of the 2-year US Treasury versus its German counterpart, which in turn exerts downside pressure on the US dollar against the euro.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) Failure to hold at the 1.1700 short-term key support negates the bullish tone on the EUR/USD to open scope for another round of minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate support at 1.1665 (also the 20-day moving average).A break below 1.1665 may trigger a deeper slide towards 1.1617 next. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.