The minor corrective pull-back of -2% seen in the AUD/USD ex-post FOMC from 17 September 2025 high of 0.6707 to 22 September 2025 low of 0.6575 has reached an inflection point to kick-start a potential fresh bullish impulsive up move sequence. Fig. 1: 1-day rolling performance of the US dollar against major currencies of 24 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) In today’s Asia session, the Australian dollar outperformed all major peers against the greenback. On a 1-day rolling basis as of 24 September 2025, the US dollar slipped -0.4% versus the AUD, outpacing the modest -0.1% intraday decline in the US Dollar Index (see Fig. 1).The AUD’s intraday strength was underpinned by Australia’s latest CPI report, which showed August inflation accelerating to 3.0% y/y from 2.8% in July, beating expectations of 2.9%. This marks the highest reading since July 2024, a 13-month high.Let’s now focus on the latest technical analysis factors of the AUD/USD to decipher its latest short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory and key levels to watch. Fig. 2: AUD/USD minor trend as of 24 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 3: AUD/USD medium-term & major trends as of 24 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Bullish bias above 0.6580 key short-term pivotal support for the AUD/USD for the next intermediate resistance to come in at 0.6655 before a retest on the major resistance of 0.6680/0.6700 (see Fig. 2).Key elements The major resistance of the AUD/USD stands at 0.6700, which is defined by the upper boundary of the multi-month “Expanding Wedge” range configuration in place since 24 April 2025 (see Fig. 3).The 0.6580 key short-term pivotal support confluences with the rising 20-day moving average that managed to stall the prior three days of decline in the AUD/USD (see Fig. 2).The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the AUD/USD has staged a bullish momentum breakout from its former descending resistance (see Fig 2).The yield spread between Australia’s 2-year sovereign bond and its US Treasury counterpart narrowed from -0.21% on 23 September 2025 to -0.10% at the time of writing. This contraction in the US yield premium has added support to bullish momentum in AUD/USD (see Fig 2).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below 0.6580 key short-term support negates the bullish scenario on the AUD/USD to expose the 0.6555 medium-term pivotal support. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold prices reached a new record high on Tuesday, helped by growing expectations of more US interest rate cuts. Investors were also waiting for a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to get more hints about future policy.The price of spot gold went up 1% to $3,784.01 per ounce, after hitting a new record high of $3,790.82 earlier in the day.This optimism was partly due to new Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who called for aggressive rate cuts on Monday. He argued that the Fed's current policy is too strict and could put jobs at risk. However, his view was challenged by three of his colleagues, who believe the central bank needs to remain cautious about inflation.Miran's pro-rate cut stance increases the chances of more cuts, which is a positive sign for gold. The CME FedWatch tool shows that investors believe there's a high chance of two more rate cuts of 0.25% each, one in October (90% chance) and another in December (73% chance).The thing with Gold at the moment is how much longer can the rally possibly go? Now many investment banks and analysts have had to continuously update their price target this year. The problem is there is no historical data to look toward which could give us a sign of where the rally might end.I have been looking over the past few weeks and have now found some interesting takeaways when looking at past bull rallies which mirror the current cycle.Let us take a look.Gold Bull Rallies From a Historical Context - 1970s, 2000s Looking back at two periods historically paint an interesting picture. The first chart below looks at the period between September 1, 1976 to January 1, 1980 where Gold prices went on a parabolic rise from a low of $104/oz to a high of $875/oz. This equates to a gain of around 738.93% over a period of 1217 days (approximately 3 years and 4 months to complete this move).Gold (XAU/USD) Monthly Chart Source: TradingView This was followed by a multi-year retracement where Gold prices struggled throughout the 1980 and 1990s.The next historic bull rally started around September 1, 1999 (note the rally started again in September. Coincidence?) until September 1 2011. This period saw Gold prices benefit from the Global Financial crisis as well.The rally took Gold prices from $253/oz to a high of $1920/oz which is around a 657.47% increase. The major difference between this rally and the one in the 1970s is the timeframe. This particular rally took a total of 4383 days which equates to around 12 years.Take a look at the chart example below.Gold (XAU/USD) Monthly Chart Source: TradingView Now looking at the current rally in Gold prices, and i am using the bottom in price from around January 4, 2016 when price hit a low of $1061/ozSince then, Gold has been on a rally with gains totaling 257% over a period of 3529 days (just shy of 10 years) to reach a high of $3791/oz today.Gold (XAU/USD) Monthly Chart Source: TradingView This is quite an impressive rally to say the least. However, it remains some way of the other two rallies historically, so are we looking at a more protracted bull run for Gold?Firstly comparing historical price moves is something I am a firm believer in. There is of course no guarantee that a similar story will always play out as the past and that also stems from the factors which are affecting prices.For example in the 1970s, the rally began a few short years after the end of the Bretton Woods system. While the rally in the 2000s was fueled by the global financial crisis, post 2008.The current rally has been fueled by a combination of many things and one of the reasons why I could see further upside materializing in the current rally. We have strong central bank buying, geopolitical risk, recessionary fears and a potential multi-year Fed easing cycle all forming a perfect cocktail for Gold prices to push on higher.Now short-term corrections and pullbacks could materialize before Gold moves higher but for this we will have to monitor the lower timeframes for any possible signs.Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD) From a technical standpoint, it is very difficult to pick a top at the moment. Not to mention that the lack of historical price action makes it near impossible.I will personally be focusing on the whole numbers ahead of $3800, $3825, $3850 etc.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, September 23, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

As I sit down to pen this article, I’m met with a feeling of déjà vu.The difference is that I have actually been here before, many times in the last few months, in fact, with silver seemingly hitting new highs every time I check my charts.Naturally, this time is no different, with silver rocketing to new highs in yesterday’s trading, while handsomely outperforming its yellow counterpart, gold, in the last seven days.As is almost tradition by now, let’s discuss some of the fundamentals responsible for the recent moves in precious metal pricing. Read previous coverage:Silver Price: XAG/USD poised to extend gains further, support likely at $40.60Silver XAG/USD poised for further upside, having cooled from multi-year highs Silver (XAG/USD), OANDA, TradingView,23/09/2025 Dust settles on dovish Fed, boosting silver prices Let’s start by establishing a fundamental economic concept: in a total vacuum, lower interest rates benefit non-yielding assets like silver, since the opportunity cost for holding precious metals compared to cash is reduced.So, why did the recent Federal Reserve rate cut hurt silver pricing?The devil is, of course, in the details.Naturally, nothing in the market is black and white; in this case, Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the cut as a ‘risk-management’ cut rather than a response to a weakening economy.This would be a much more hawkish stance than previously thought, which, at least at first, would seriously temper expectations that this would mark the first cut of a deep-cutting cycle.Considering the predicted trajectory of Fed interest rates before this, generally pegged at two further cuts before year-end, even the slightest suggestion that rates could be kept higher not only weakened demand for precious metals, but also simultaneously strengthened the dollar.What’s happened since then, however, is a textbook example of reaction versus response. Silver (XAG/USD) & DXY, OANDA & TVC, TradingView, 23/09/2025 Having had time to digest, it would seem that the market uncertainty has all but dissipated, with the recent rally in silver pricing a shining example.While Powell’s recent ‘risk-management’ comments can’t be ignored, against the backdrop of recent US labour and GDP data, the numbers otherwise point to further rate cuts, assuming inflation remains under control.While it would be fair to say that the financial markets’ collective hive mind is not always known for robust decision-making in light of shock economic news, the dust has now settled, with the narrative around Fed monetary policy returning essentially to the dovish angle held ahead of the recent decision. CME FedWatch, OANDA, TradingView, 23/09/2025 This goes double when considering dissent from FOMC member Stephen Miran, who voted for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut in the most recent decision, showing some support for further rate cuts already exists amongst decision-makers.Strong fundamentals bolster silver prices At risk of repeating myself from previous coverage, here’s a quick-fire round on the macro themes responsible for the current rally: Questions remain on sovereign debt, especially in United States, with the recent downgrade in credit rating fresh in the collective memory. Similar to 2011, uncertainty on the long-term solvency of major world economies, especially with no shortage of radical US policy changes, directly benefits silver pricingSilver demand continues to outstrip supply, which in and of itself is a relatively new phenomenon. Used both as a store of value and across industry alike, the recent classification of silver as a ‘critical mineral’ by the US Government further cements its use case on a significant scale. In line with the most basic principles of economic theory, if demand cannot be met by supply, prices rise, as seen particularly of recentUsually lumped under the moniker of ‘safe-haven flows’, precious metals like silver are often used as a reliable store of value in times of economic uncertainty. In 2025, there has been no shortage in demand for safe-haven assets, with increased geopolitical tensions, questions on sovereign debt, and, of course, US trade tariffs, all making valuable contributionsLess so a macroeconomic factor, more so a consequence of the above, a weakening dollar has helped extend the current rally in precious metal pricing, since precious metals are typically priced in USD. So far, 2025 remains on record as one of the U.S. dollar’s worst-performing years in some time, helping boost silver prices In a nutshell, and owing to the rock-solid fundamentals, markets have clearly shown their preference for higher silver pricing this year, with current prices on pace for their best percentage performance since 2010.Since late August, it would appear that markets are ready to metaphorically bite the hand off any opportunity to push precious metals higher, with no obvious signs of slowing down any time soon.Silver XAG/USD: Technical Analysis 23/09/2025 Silver (XAG/USD), OANDA, TradingView, 23/09/2025 Renewing multi-year highs recently, XAG/USD currently trades toward the upper boundary of the upwards channel. Price may need to retrace lower before an attempt higher, with bulls likely to target $45 first, then onto $45.69According to the ADX, current trend strength is at its highest level since June 2024, suggesting conviction in market direction. For the contrarians, shorts should be approached with extreme caution Read more from MarketPulse: Nikkei 225: Bullish reversal above 45,000, no negative impact from BoJ’s ETF unwind Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This is a follow-up analysis and timely update of our prior report, “Nikkei 225 Technical: Bullish trend remains intact despite Japan’s PM resignation”, published on 8 September 2025.The Japan 225 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) has continued to remain in a bullish trend as expected and rallied by 5.3% to hit a fresh all-time high of 45,956 on last Thursday, 18 September 2025, ex-post FOMC. Thereafter, the Japan 225 CFD Index staged a minor corrective pull-back of -3.2% to print an intraday low of 44,485 on Friday, 19 September 2025, on the onset of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announcement to start unwinding its massive hoard of around 79.5 trillion yen of exchange-traded funds (ETF) by market value as of mid-September tied to Japan benchmark stock indices.BoJ aims to sell its ETF holdings at a pace of around ¥620 billion per year by market value, or ¥330 billion by book value, starting in 2026. It will be a gradual unwinding process that may take more than 100 years to complete under the current plan. Additionally, it marks the first time the BoJ has laid out a plan for offloading the assets it has accumulated over years of ultra-easy monetary policy.Let’s now examine a fundamental factor that still supports a medium-term bullish trend in the Nikkei 225.Earnings revision continues to get upgraded for Japanese equities Fig. 1: Japan & US Citigroup Earnings Revision Index as of 19 Sep 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) Sell-side analysts have continued to upgrade the earnings growth potential of the Japanese stock market. Based on the latest data from the Citigroup Earnings Revision Index for Japanese equities as of 19 September 2025, it rose to 0.34 from the previous reading of 0.19 on 29 August 2025 (see Fig. 1).The Japan Citigroup Earnings Revision Index has been trending upwards since 20 June 2025, printing -0.35, which suggests that analysts, on average, are becoming more optimistic about the outlook for corporate earnings in Japan, in turn supporting the ongoing medium-term bullish trend in the Nikkei 225.In addition, the pace of analysts’ earnings upgrades in Japan rose at a steeper pace since 29 August 2025, versus the US Citigroup Earnings Revision Index.We now focus on the short-term (1to 3 days) trajectory, key elements, and key levels to watch on the Japan 225 CFD Index from a technical analysis perspective. Fig. 2: Japan 225 CFD Index minor trend as of 23 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Maintain the bullish bias on the Japan 225 CFD Index with a tightened short-term pivotal support now at 45,000. A clearance above 45,960 increases the odds of bullish impetus for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 46,430/46,580 and 46,870 (Fibonacci extension cluster and towards the upper boundary of a steeper minor ascending channel from the 2 September 2025 low) (see Fig. 2).Key elements The price actions of the Japan 225 CFD Index have continued to oscillate above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which suggests that its minor and medium-term uptrend phases remain intact.The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the Japan 225 CFD Index has exhibited a bullish momentum condition as it managed to trend higher above an ascending support and has not reached its overbought zone (above the 70 level).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below the 45,000 key short-term support for the Japan 225 CFD Index invalidates the bullish acceleration scenario to kickstart a minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at 44,560 and 44,050. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

GBPJPY is one of the most volatile FX pair available to trade including only major currencies – Yet, it's been stuck in a huge range since August 2024.As explained in our previous article on this currency pair, a continuous uptrend from 2020 lows (127.30!) to July 2024 highs (208.12) has been met with a sharp correction as carry trades saw a consequent slowdown amid a sudden market-breakdown which suddenly saw yen rebuying speed up.At the same time, equities saw a huge correction, which got followed with the usual dip-buying.Anyways, this time, a consistent shorter-range uptrend has built up momentum from April lows (184.50) to the higher bound of the year-long consolidation.With buyers stepping in after a August retracement, a consequent bull-sequence took the pair to a wick at new yearly highs (201.27).Let's have a look at multi-timeframe charts to spot levels of interest and see if the most recent rejection below 200.00 can hold further or a breakout is due. Read More: Binance Coin (BNB) breaks $1,000 despite a crypto pullback – Crypto outlookGold (XAU/USD): Short-term bullish acceleration intact towards new all-time highs above US$3,660 key supportRBA's Bullock says inflation under control, Aussie steadyGBPJPY multi-timeframe analysisGBPJPY daily timeframe GBPJPY Daily Chart, September 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView Markets have built towards higher levels in the pair throughout the past 5 months as weak fundamentals haven't helped the Yen to find consequent buying.However, some hawkishness as been denoted in last week's Bank of Japan meeting and as the Bank of England just cut its rate to 4% at its last meeting, rates between Japan and the UK are still expected to converge through time.The rest is for markets to spot when the BoJ will actually hike which should provide a further boost to the yen – a sign for sellers to step in further. But markets react to such noise initially before being more patient and waiting for the actual news to drop – There is a bit less of a hike priced in the Japanese short-end curve for the rest of the year. But increased hawkish talk may assist the selling in the pair and needs to be tracked closely, particularly after the most recent failed bullish-breakout.GBPJPY 4H chart and levels GBPJPY 4H Chart, September 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView As can be observed on this 4H chart, the V-shaped return to the 199.00 to 200.00 resistance has built a consolidation level just above the 200-period MA which now serves as immediate momentum level for future action.A break below should accelerate selling towards the April trendline, and further downside could be expected below (towards a retest of the August 5th lows).A failure to break the low of the resistance should amplify the consolidation further – Keep a close eye on the 4H 200-period MA.Levels to watch for GBPJPY trading:Support Levels:Low of 199.00 to 200.00 resistance (198.70)Intermediate Range Resistance Zone turned pivot near 195.00 to 196.85Higher timeframe Main Pivot point 193.00Range Intermediate Support Zone around the 190.00 levelResistance Levels:Resistance Zone extremes 199.00 to 200.00201.27 Bank of England and pre-Bank of Japan highs208.120 July 2024 highs GBPJPY 1H Chart, September 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bulls and bears are battling within the resistance of the range.The 50-hour Moving average may act as immediate resistance but will only see confirmation if momentum breaches the pivot zone.Not closing below the pivot on the daily would imply further consolidation within the range.Safe Trades and Shana Tovah for those who celebrate!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Equities keep up their positive performance with each of them finishing at or close to their highs, with the Tech-heavy Nasdaq taking the lead yet again.With the most recent Federal Reserve cut and positive acquisition news as seen in yesterday's US Index piece, sentiment is at its highs again.Both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 have yet to break their yesterday highs and it will be interesting to see if they manage to do so towards the daily close or next week.In addition to the PBoC (China's Central Bank) which releases its own rate decision (major support to the economy is expected, traditionally positive for equities), Markets will assist to many FED Members' speeches as the Blackout period is now over, and it will be very interesting to see what they have to offer.Miran is officially the most dovish member with FED Governors Waller and Bowman conceding their seat – Have a look at the busy Sunday to Monday speaker calendar(Check out more on what's to come with our Week Ahead piece, coming up very soon). Central bank speakers on Monday, Marketpulse Economic Calendar. Markets might be overlooking the more balanced-approach from Powell to the future rate cut outlook, as every-optimistic mood keeps pushing equities higher.The Dot Plot did signal some extra 50 bps of easing throughout the end of the year, but the cut wasn't such a dovish one when looking at the details of what Powell said – For now, the US Dollar is the one coming back higher from the decision.You can discover more on this right here. Daily US Equity Heatmap – September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView The picture is not as impressive as yesterday, but Bulls will always enjoy strong performance from names such as Apple, Oracle and Tesla.A Daily outlook for S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones before taking a closer look Daily Chart Outlook for US Equities – September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More:GBP outlook as GBP/USD gets rejected from pre-FOMC highsPost-FOMC US dollar surge shifts global markets – DXY outlookGold (XAU) and Silver (XAG) find selling pressure from the post-FOMC stronger US dollar Let's take a look at intraday charts and levels for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones.Technical outlook and levels for the 3 Main US Indices All three indices are in a seemingly unstoppable move since the beginning of September. Let's try to look at the extent of the moves and potential levels of interest for each index as price discovery continues.S&P 500 4H chart and levels S&P 500 2H Chart , September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Watch the middle of the upward channel that will need to be broken to the upside to maintain a more bullish intermediate outlook!Similar as the Dow Jones, the price action looks a bit hesitant at the highs despite a very decent week.S&P 500 Trading Levels:Resistance LevelsDaily highs 6,669 (new ATH)Higher timeframe potential resistance between 6,650 and 6,700 level (1.618 from April lows, currently testing)6,700 psychological levelSupport LevelsFOMC lows 6,562 and MA 506,490 to 6,512 pivot6,400 Main Support6,210 to 6,235 Main Support (August NFP Lows)Nasdaq 2H chart and levels Nasdaq 2H Chart , September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Nasdaq is actually the only index printing fresh all-time highs today, however the action seems a bit hesitant.A momentum divergence might be showing up on the 2H RSI but looking at the past close, confirmation candles would be required to confirm any action.For now, the mood in tech is positive – Let's see what players do towards the weekly close and next week's open.Nasdaq technical levels of interestResistance LevelsCurrent daily highs (24,626)Daily Resistance (from August 20 lows) 24,550 to 24,626 (immediate resistance)Potential Resistance 2 fib-Extension (from August lows) 24,800Support LevelsFib-projection now Momentum pivot 24,350Previous ATH zone turning pivot (23,950 to 24,020)23,500 support23,000 Key SupportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportDow Jones 4H chart and levels Dow Jones 2H Chart , September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Price action is still very hesitant to break the upward trendline of the Ascending wedge, and stays one of the biggest limitation to the US index.Watch momentum as the session moves forward.Levels for Dow Jones trading:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time high and Rising wedge breakout: 46,4251.618 from April correction potential resistance 46,400 to 46,830High of channel and 1.618% Fib of July move 47,000 to 47,160 (potential resistance)Support Levels46,000 Momentum Pivot and 50-period MA (45,807)45,283 previous significant ATHKey Support/longer-run pivot 45,000Support 44,200 to 44,500Main Support (NFP Lows) 43,000 to 43,750Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The currency market had been dormant for a while, but this is now a theme of the past yet again.Throughout August, a first move higher from the Pound got met with a subsequent consolidation until the beginning of this month .GBP/USD peaked just above 1.37 on Wednesday’s announcement, but that rally didn’t stick — the pair now trades roughly 1.70% lower as the dollar staged a fierce comeback.What flipped the script was a rapid unwind of pre-FOMC downbeat USD bets: Powell’s more balanced tone and a re-credibilized Federal Reserve re-anchored the dollar (the latter could still be a bearish theme for the USD in the future). Recent exchanges between US President Trump and UK PM Keir Starmer have marked a strengthening of collaboration between the two countries that are on their own separating paths from their neighbors, and it would make sense for the two countries to get closer, looking forward.In terms of data, with UK inflation still uncomfortably high (3.8% headline as the Bank of England targets 2%) and Governor Bailey still mentioning cuts on the table (more for 2026), Markets got a perfect setup for a rejection at those pre-FOMC highs. The question now is whether this pullback is the start of a larger correction, and if this breakdown will also spread to other European currencies in the continuation of FX geographic trends. Let’s break down the multi-timeframe levels for GBPUSD and where to look next. Read More: Post-FOMC US dollar surge shifts global markets – DXY outlookWhere to Next, EUR/USD? Policy gap between ECB and FedCaution Over Speed: How the Fed Framed Its First CutGBPUSD Daily Chart GBPUSD Daily Chart, September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView When looking at the higher timeframe, we spot that since reaching its 2025 highs in June, the pair really hasn't moved in a trend, which makes sense when looking at the immense movements in the first half of the year.The two past candles are sending scary sights, but the 50-Day Moving Average (1.34650) may act as an intermediate bumper to slow the ongoing selling. Breaching it and closing below offers a door for lower movement. On the other hand, failing to breach the key MA could lead to further consolidation.Let's take a closer look for intra-day trading levels.GBPUSD 8H Chart and levels GBPUSD 8H Chart, September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Shorter timeframes offer another view of how steep the descent is. With momentum getting closer to oversold, it will be interesting to see how participants move the major pair, and with the week coming to an end, it will surely be an answer for next week.However, things to look for trading are: A continuation or lack thereof of the Dollar Index (check out our morning piece!) , a close below the 1.3450 (August range lows) to 1.35650 level and upcoming data (US GDP data and many Central bank speeches next week)Levels to watch for the GBPUSD:Resistance Levels1.35 psychological levelResistance at the 1.36 zoneResistance 1.37 Zonepre-FOMC Highs 1.37288Key Pivot Zone: 1.3450 to 1.3650Support Levels1.34 Psychological levelSupport 1.3260-1.33Support 1.3170 - 1.31850GBPUSD 1H Chart GBPUSD 1H Chart, September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking closer, momentum starts to curb around the lows of the week which signals that oversold conditions might be kicking in.Such preceding movement may impede a strong pullback, and consolidation may have the higher chance of allowing price action to then continue – Future data will then tell if the movement is more to an upside reversal or a downside continuation.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior publication, “USD/JPY Technical: Yen eyeing a medium-term bullish breakout against USD from a 5-month range”, published on 17 September 2025.The USD/JPY dropped further on Wednesday, 17 September 2025, with an initial intraday loss of -0.7% to print an intraday low of 145.48 before it reversed up higher ex-post FOMC to close higher and erased all its initial losses, reinforced by Fed Chair Powell’s “less dovish” press conference. The USD/JPY has managed to survive at the 145.95 medium-term support (the lower boundary of the “Ascending Wedge” range configuration) in place since the 22 April 2025 low of 139.89 and rallied by 1.9% in the past two days, from the 17 September 2025 low of 145.48 to the 18 September 2025 high of 148.27.The 18 September 2025 high of 148.27 of the USD/JPY is just below a key minor range resistance of 148.75/148.95 that keeps the US dollar bulls in check since 12 August 2025.US dollar’s intraday bearish reversal against the JPY, 2 BoJ officials favoured a rate hike Fig. 1: 1-day rolling performances of the US dollar against major currencies as of 19 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Interestingly, the USD/JPY shed by -0.5% after the Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s monetary policy decision to keep its short-term policy interest rate unchanged at 0.5% as expected for the fifth consecutive meeting (see Fig. 1).The main trigger of the US dollar's weakness against the Japanese yen was the BoJ officials’ voting patterns. In today’s BoJ’s monetary policy decision meeting, for the first time in 2025, two officials (Takata and Tamura) voted for an interest rate hike to 0.75%, citing that price stability (2% long-term inflation trend target in Japan) had been achieved, and the risks to prices becoming more skewed to the upside.Let’s now examine fundamental factors. Fig. 2: Japan overnight interest rate swaps as of 19 Sep 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) Fig. 3: Yield spreads of US Treasury/JGB with major trend of USD/JPY as of 19 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) The overnight index swaps (OIS) market for Japan’s short-term interest rates is still pricing in a 25 basis points (bps) hike to the short-term overnight policy interest rate to 0.75% before 2025 ends.The 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year OIS rates have continued to widen over the 1-month OIS rates in the past two weeks, where the 1-year OIS rate has increased from 0.67% on 8 September 2025 to 0.73% on Friday, 19 September 2025 at the time of writing (see Fig. 2).The 2-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield, which is sensitive to changes to the BoJ’s monetary policy stance, has continued its upward trajectory and climbed by to 0.91%, its highest level since 2008.Hence, the yield premium between the 2-year US Treasury note and the 2-year Japanese Government Bond has continued to narrow steadily since the start of the year. The bearish breakdown of the 2.90% former major support on the week of 18 August 2025 is likely to add impetus for a further potential narrowing of the yield premium towards the next support at 2.05% (see Fig. 3).This ongoing narrowing process suggests that 2-year US Treasuries have become relatively less attractive versus 2-year JGBs, reducing the yield premium in favour of the dollar. As a result, this dynamic may exert downside pressure on USD/JPY.Let’s now examine the USD/JPY from a technical analysis perspective to determine its latest short-term (1 to 3 days) trend bias and key technical levels to watch. Fig. 4: USD/JPY medium-term trend as of 19 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 5: USD/JPY minor trend as of 19 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Bearish bias below 148.75/148.95 short-term pivotal resistance for USD/JPY within its range configuration for the next intermediate support to come in at 146.30, followed by the medium-term “Ascending Wedge” range support at 145.95 (see Fig. 5)Only a break with a daily close below 145.95 on the USD/JPY is likely to trigger the start of a medium-term (multi-week) Japanese yen strength against the greenback.Key elements The daily RSI momentum indicator of the USD/JPY has continued to hover below its resistance at the 60 level and printed a “lower high”. These observations suggest the lack of medium-term bullish momentum (see Fig. 4).The 148.75/148.95 short-term pivotal resistance of the USD/JPY has also coincided with the key 200-day moving average that has capped dollar bulls' strength since 1 August 2025 (see Fig. 4).The hourly RSI momentum indicator has exited from its overbought level after it flashed out a bearish divergence condition (see Fig. 5).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A clearance above 148.95 invalidates the bearish scenario for the USD/JPY and sees a squeeze up towards the key medium-term resistance of 149.70/149.90 (the upper boundary of the “Ascending Wedge”). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (18/09/2025): In today’s episode, we discuss the Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point cut yesterday, the Bank of England’s vote to maintain headline lending rates today, and recent revelations concerning the Swiss National Bank, amongst a renewed wave of franc strength. Join OANDA Market Analyst Kenny Fisher, OANDA Financial Writer Christian Norman, Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Choppy Trade as Markets Digest Fed Decision Most Read: USD/CAD Outlook: Head and Shoulder Pattern in Play as Fundamentals Provide Interesting DilemmaGlobal stock markets were unstable on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cut of the year. Investors were left uncertain about the speed of future rate cuts because the Fed suggested it would take a cautious, step-by-step approach to further easing.Contracts for the S&P 500 advanced 0.5% while those for the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.7%, after the underlying benchmarks posted minor declines following the Fed’s decision.In Asia, a broad index of shares, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index, fell by 0.1% due to declines in Australia and New Zealand. Meanwhile, Chinese stocks had a mixed day, moving between gains and losses.In contrast, shares in South Korea jumped 0.8%, Taiwan's shares rallied 0.4%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 index added 1%.Tomorrow we have the BoJ meeting. For more information on the meeting and the impact on USD/JPY, read Bank of Japan (BoJ) Meeting Preview: Maintaining the Status Quo. Implications for USD/JPYEuropean Open - European Shares Edge Higher On Thursday, European stocks went up slightly after the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut since December 2024. The overall European STOXX 600 index rose by 0.5% with widespread gains across different sectors.In Denmark, Novo Nordisk's shares increased by 2.6% after new data showed that an experimental pill version of its drug, Wegovy, helped people lose 16.6% of their weight in a study. This was a better result than what was seen in previous studies of the injectable version of the drug.On the other hand, the SIG Group, a Swiss packaging company, saw its shares drop by 20% and trading was temporarily stopped after the company warned that its 2025 profit would be lower than expected and that it was suspending its cash dividend.Additionally, British fashion retailer Next lost 5.5% of its share value. This happened after the company announced it expects sales growth in the UK to slow down in the second half of the year, which overshadowed its report of a 13.8% profit increase in the first half.On the FX front, the US dollar went up on Thursday, continuing its recent rebound. This happened as traders tried to understand the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to future interest rate cuts. The dollar had initially fallen to its lowest point since February 2022 immediately after the Fed's announcement but then bounced back strongly.Elsewhere, the New Zealand dollar fell sharply after new data showed the country's economy shrank much more than expected in the second quarter. This has led to speculation that there will be more significant interest rate cuts this year. The Australian dollar also weakened after Australia's employment numbers unexpectedly dropped in August.After its initial drop, the dollar index climbed as much as 0.44% on the day to 97.074, and continued to rise on Thursday to 97.163.The euro slipped 0.2% to $1.1791, after briefly jumping to its highest level since June 2021 on Wednesday in an immediate reaction to the Fed's news.The British pound also eased by 0.2% to $1.3604, after briefly leaping to its highest point since July 2.The US dollar went up by 0.2% against the Japanese yen, reaching 147.245 yen in the latest trading session. This happened after it had initially weakened as much as 0.67% to its lowest point since July 7, before quickly bouncing back.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices went down for the second day in a row on Thursday. This happened after the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected. Traders were focused on concerns about the US economy and the risk of too much oil supply.Brent crude futures fell by 26 cents, or 0.38%, to $67.69 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate futures dropped by 28 cents, or 0.44%, to $63.77 per barrel.For more information on Oil, please read WTI Oil Rallies 1% After Ukrainian Attacks on Russian Oil Facilities, Russia Sanction Calls GrowOn Thursday, gold prices continued to fall. This happened because the US dollar became stronger after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a percent, as expected, and hinted that it would be cautious about making any further policy changes.Spot gold fell by 0.6% to $3,637.41 per ounce, after reaching a record high of $3,707.40 on Wednesday. US gold futures for December delivery also slipped by 1.2% to $3,671.30..For more information on Gold, read Gold (XAU/USD) Soars to Breach $3700/oz. FOMC Meeting Next, Will the Rally Continue?Bank of England (BoE) Meeting and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the biggest event of the day will be the Bank of England policy meeting.The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates at 4%. According to LSEG data, markets are pricing in around 97.2% probability that rates will remain at 4%.This is supported by official figures from Wednesday, which showed that British inflation was 3.8% in August. This number has made investors more confident that the central bank is unlikely to cut rates again very soon.However, a survey of economists by Reuters conducted earlier this month found that they still expect one more rate cut before the end of the year.There is also a meeting between US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer as well as a press conference. Whether there will be any updates on trade agreements remains to be seen and if there is it could shake up markets. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - DAX Index From a technical standpoint, the DAX is bouncing this morning and is trading up around 0.9%.If the daily candle can close at current levels or higher that could be seen as a morningstar candlestick formation, which would set the index up for further gains.A candle close on the daily timeframe above the 23750 handle will be needed for a change in structure which would further enhance the probability of further upside.Looking at the RSI period-14 and it is approaching the 50 handle. with a break above leading to a shift in momentum.Beyond the 23750 handle resistance is provided by 20 and 100-day MAs which rest at 23824 and 23922 respectively.Support for now rests at 23471 and 23212 respectively.DAX Daily Chart, September 18. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The much expected FOMC cut finally took place, and it is offering a lot of action throughout markets. The rate is now officially at 4.25% (Between 4% to 4.25%).An additional 50 bps is planned by the FED for the rest of the year.As expected Miran dissented for a 50 bps, the dot plot is a bit more dovish than expected.After the volatile past few days, particularly in FX markets and commodities, [...] took the seat of the most violent movements.You can access the official FOMC statement right here.Summary of Economic Projections can be found right here.Also do not forget to log in at 14:30 E.T. to Jerome Powell's Live Press conference through this link.Let's take a look at a few key charts to spot what changed amid this volatility:September 2025 Summary of Economic Projections Summary of Economic Projections, Federal Reserve, September 17 You can access our previous post to see how to read the changes in the SEP. Read More: Bank of Canada cuts rates to 2.50%, FOMC coming up!— North American mid-week Market updateLive Market reactions across Markets Post-FOMC release Market Snapshot – September 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView More details on the most volatile assets: Watch out for the Press conference which also offers a lot of volatility!S&P 500 moves higher but rejects highs S&P 500 1H Chart, September 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView Gold hesitant rally Gold 1H Chart, September 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar slides further to new 2025 lows Dollar Index 1H Chart, September 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView US Treasuries hesitant rally US 10Y Bonds 1H Chart, September 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView Safe Trades ahead of the Powell Press Conference!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Fed Interest Rate Decision: 4.25% vs +4.25% expected, meets consensusUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (September 2025): Breaking: The Federal Reserve has voted to cut rates in its September decision, bringing the target federal funds rate to 4.00-4.25%.The cut represents the first time since December 2024 that the Fed has voted to lower rates, being maintained at 4.5% for the entirety of 2025 - until today.Key takeaway: While the Federal Reserve remains conscious of inflation, poor economic data, especially recent labour reports, have forced the hand of the Federal Reserve into cutting rates. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior publication, “Dow Jones (DJIA) Technical: Poised for a potential bullish breakout as US CPI looms”, published last Thursday, 11 September 2025.The price actions of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) have staged the expected bullish breakout above the minor “Ascending Triangle” range resistance at 45,780 and rallied by 1.3% to hit a fresh all-time intraday high of 46,140 on last Friday, 12 September 2025, during the early Asian session. Thereafter, the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index’s minor/short-term bullish momentum fizzled out and staged a corrective pull-back of -1.1% to print an intraday low of 45,645 on Tuesday, 16 September 2025, ahead of today’s FOMC monetary policy decision outcome and the release of the latest Fed economic projections (dot plot). Fig. 1: Performances of S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA & Russell 2000 from 12 Sep 2025 to 16 Sep 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) So far, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has both lagged and outperformed its peers from last Friday, 12 September, to this Wednesday, 16 September. The DJIA shed -0.2%, and in contrast, the mega-cap heavy S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 recorded gains of 0.3% and 0.8% respectively towards fresh all-time highs. Even the small-cap Russell managed to squeeze out a modest positive return of 0.2% (see Fig. 1).A key macro factor and its intermarket relationship hold the key to the short to medium-term performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. More details below.A re-steepening of the US Treasury yield curve is needed to revive the bulls of Dow Jones Fig. 2: DJIA, momentum, value factors, US Treasury yield curve major trends as of 16 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) The Dow Jones Industrial Average tends to be viewed as a more “value-oriented” barometer benchmark US stock index due to its higher weightage of value-related sectors, such as Financials, over the Nasdaq 100; the Financials sector has a weightage of 27% in the DJIA.One of the key drivers that allows the DJIA to stage a bullish breakout on 22 August 2025, above its former all-time high of 45,074 printed on 4 December 2024, is a macro factor (undiversifiable risk), the bullish steepening of the US Treasury yield curve (10-year minus 2-year), which, in turn, also reinforced the bullish breakout of the ratio chart of the S&P 500 Enhanced Value ETF (35% weightage in Financials)/S&P 500 ETF (see Fig. 2).A bullish steepening of the US Treasury yield curve indicates short-term interest rates are falling at a faster pace than long-term interest rates due to an accommodating monetary policy environment undertaken by the Fed.Hence, a US Treasury bull steepening environment tends to benefit the US Financials, especially in wholesale banking, as net interest margins expand, in turn, triggering a positive feedback loop back into the Dow Jones Industrial Average (heavily weighting in the Financials sector).The recent pull-back in the DJIA since last Friday, 12 September, has moved in line with the flattening of the US Treasury yield curve (10-year minus 2-year). Interestingly, the flattening process of the US Treasury yield has stalled at a major ascending support, and a re-steepening motion seems to be in progress as it staged a bounce from 0.48% on 11 September 2025 to 0.52% on Tuesday, 16 September 2025.The further re-steepening of the US Treasury yield curve will likely hinge on today’s release of the Fed’s latest economic projections and Chair Powell’s press conference, both of which will shape market expectations for monetary policy.Should the Fed strike a dovish tone that prompts markets to price in more than the three rate cuts currently anticipated for 2026 (latest CME FedWatch tool data), the yield curve may resume its bull-steepening trend, in turn supporting the next bullish impulsive move in the DJIA.Let’s now focus on the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory and key technical levels to watch on the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index Fig. 3: US Wall Street 30 CFD minor trend as of 17 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) The minor corrective pull-back from last Friday, 12 September 2025, may have reached its terminal point for a potential bullish reversal.Maintain a bullish bias on the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index with 45,780/45,690 as key short-term pivotal support. A clearance above 46,180 adds impetus to the start of another bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 46,365/46,400 and 46,570 (Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 3).Key elements The recent pull-back of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index has started to stall at the lower boundary of the minor ascending channel in place since the 1 August 2025 low.The 45,780/45,690 key short-term pivotal support also coincides with the pull-back for the former minor “Ascending Triangle” range resistanceThe hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a rebound after it reached its oversold zone on Tuesday, 16 September 2025, which suggests that the recent bearish momentum has eased.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below the 45,690 key short-term support invalidates the bullish reversal scenario on the US Wall Street CFD Index.A further extension of the minor corrective decline may materialise to expose the next intermediate supports at 45,425 and 45,290/45,175. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

In case you haven't seen our introduction to bond yields and an explanation on their recent moves, I formally invite you to read it over which may help you to understand some of tomorrow's moves. Recent movements in Bonds: Why are government bond yields rising so much as of late?What is the Fed Funds rate and why is the FOMC meeting so big? Tomorrow, and as-usual for every FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve will decide whether or not to change its Main policy rate, the Fed Funds, currently locked between 4.25% to 4.50% (Effective Fed Funds is at 4.33%, but that's a technicity).You will usually see the higher bound of that range represented, which is why you usually hear the "4.50%" rate from US President Trump and media – We will use this rate for the article.You can read more on the Federal Funds rate directly from the FED website right here.The FOMC is closely watched due to all banks (Central Banks and all others), traders, investors using this rate as the main US Dollar financing rate.As the Reserve currency, the US Dollar and its supply will have a great influence on global yields, demand and prices. Read More:WTI Oil breaks out as Russia menaces with output cuts and USD weakness fuels energy rallyGuide to the FOMC statement and September SEP: Key takeaways and what to watchSwiss franc leads majors as US session begins and reclaims 2025 crownThe current US Treasury Yield Curve Current vs 2-year ago Yield Curve – Source: TradingView Small explanation on the yield curve The current curve (blue) is inverted –compared to a Flattening yield curve in purple– which means that the market expects that the yield on short-term obligations will be lower than on long-term ones.This is due to lower inflation expectations and a lower time compensation in the short run, compared to higher inflation expectations and higher risk to outstanding debt in the long run.The 2-Year yield is the closest to expiry and is the best view of where the market expects the Fed Funds rate to be within the next two years.The same is true for 5-year and longer-term yields, but these also include a time-risk premium (and of course, reflect demand).This is why, for example, 30-year yields will be tied to longer-run mortgages for consumers, as they tend to reflect longer-term risks for banks to lend.Also, one of the keys to understanding yields is that the higher the demand (or price), the lower the yield.Conversely, if fewer people want bonds, they will sell them, causing the yield to go up to attract more demand. One of the talks and curve pricing since Donald Trump's investiture is how wider deficits steepens the curve even more (pressure for lower short-term rates puts pressure towards higher rates in the long-run).A jumbo cut tomorrow would hence boost economic activity and markets would hence price higher future inflation.Current US Yields and change in today's sessions US Yields from the 2Y to 30Y and daily performance – September 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView As you can see, these yields are showing another form of the blue curve observed just before.With the current huge selling in the US Dollar, market participants are hedging for an eventual 50 bps which is leading to big steepening in the curve.When the 2Y Yield decreases more than the 30Y, this is considered Bull steepening: Bond traders bought more the front (short-term bonds) than the back (long-term bonds). Let's now look at different Bond charts and spot key levels for them.2 Year US Treasury Bond US 2Y Bond, September 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView 10 Year Treasury Bond US 10Y Bond, September 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView This bond is traditionally seen as the benchmark for the safest and most liquid financial product.Watch a break of the most recent highs (113.86) for further continuation towards the September 2024 highs. You may also check the equivalent Yields on the charts.Any downside below the Key 112.50 pivot (Yield = 4.25% to 4.30%) should lead to further increase in the yield. It is extremely difficult to anticipate what will be said in such a key FOMC but all eyes will be on the statement (14:00 ET) and Powell's speech (14:30 ET).Watch for any clues on potential dovishness from Powell which may add more rates towards the end of 2025 (25 bps for each meeting, 3 meetings left is the current pricing).Any unexpected hawkishness could have different effects: Either take out rate cuts in 2025 (flattening the curve) or take out 2026 cuts (steepening the curve even more).Tomorrow will be essential for all assets, currencies and flows for the coming period.Of course, do not forget the Bank of Canada rate decisions at 9:30 tomorrow morning and the Bank of England rate decision at 7:00 on Thursday 18th.Safe trades and a successful FOMC session!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The euro has posted sharp gains on Thursday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1867, up 0.90% on the day. The euro has not been at these levels since September 2021.German investor confidence crushes estimateGerman ZEW Economic Sentiment rose modestly in September to 37.3, up from 34.7 in August. This blew past the market estimate of 26.3 and the euro has responded with sharp gains. The survey of financial experts indicates cautious optimism, with the outlook for the export sector showing promise after a prolonged decline.At the same time, the index monitoring the current economic situation worsened, declining to -76.4 from 68.6, below the market estimate of -75.0. It has been a bumpy road for Germany, which is the only G7 economy that has not posted growth in the past two years. Once the locomotive that drove the eurozone economy, Germany finds itself the laggard of the bloc. US retail sales better than expected US retail sales for August were stronger than expected at 0.6% m/m. This was unchanged from an upwardly revised 0.6% in July and easily beat the market estimate of 0.2%. Retail sales increased across most sub-categories, as consumers showed they were in a spending mood despite a weaker job market and higher prices due to President Trump's tariffs.Annualized, retail sales jumped 5.0%, up from an upwardly revised 4.1% in August and above the forecast of 3.2%. At the same time, consumer sentiment has been softening, with consumers concerned about the impact of the tariffs.All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to lower interest rates on Wednesday for the first time since December 2024. The money markets have fully priced in a rate cut, with a quarter-point reduction practically a given. Investors will be looking for clues about the possiblity of additional rate cuts before the end of the year.EUR/USD Technical EUR/USD has pushed above resistance at 1.1786, 1.1804 and 1.1844. The next resistance line is at 1.1908There is support at 1.1751 and 1.1728 EURUSD 1-Day Chart, September 16, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei, Topix Hit Fresh Highs Global stocks are at an all-time high, and gold prices have reached a new record. This is happening as markets ramp up rate cut bets ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.The MSCI All Country World Index, a measure of global stocks, has risen for 10 straight days—its longest winning streak in over four years. On the Japanese stock market, the two main indexes, the Nikkei 225 and the Topix, both reached all-time highs.Meanwhile, in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index saw a small gain of 0.08%. In mainland China, the CSI 300 index, which tracks top companies, experienced a slight decline of 0.38%.In two separate events that largely went unnoticed by the markets, the U.S. Senate narrowly confirmed Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors, while a U.S. appeals court ruled that President Donald Trump could not fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.Looking at the market reaction, it appears as though these developments were considered unlikely to change the outcome of the Fed's decision on Wednesday, as a 25-basis-point interest rate cut is already fully anticipated by investors.UK Wage Growth Slows From May to July 2025, regular pay for workers in the UK, not including bonuses, increased by 4.8% compared to the year before. This marks the slowest rate of growth since May 2022 and was exactly what market experts had predicted. The slowdown was seen in both the public and private sectors.Looking at different industries, the fastest pay raises were in wholesale, retail, hotels, and restaurants, with a 6.4% increase. Other sectors saw more modest gains, including services (4.9%), manufacturing (4.5%), construction (3.9%), and finance and business services (3%). When adjusting for inflation, the real value of wages only went up by 0.7%, indicating that while people are earning more money, their purchasing power has seen a much smaller increase. Source: ING Think The cooling job market is helping lower wage pressures which will be welcome by the Bank of England. This could aid the Bank of England in delivering another rate cut this year. Thursday may be unlikely, but another cut in Q4 remains a possibility.Tomorrow's inflation data may prove to be more important as the service inflation conundrum persists for the BoE. A softer print could lead to increased expectations of a rate cut in Q4.European Open - Stocks Retreat, Ferrari Up 2.6% European stocks saw a slight decline on Tuesday, primarily due to a drop in the banking and insurance sectors, which are often sensitive to interest rate changes.The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell by 0.15%, with both banking and insurance stocks losing approximately 1%.Several companies experienced notable individual stock movements. For example, shares in elevator maker Schindler dropped 1.7% after a major investor sold off a large block of shares at a discounted price. Meanwhile, French cosmetics giant L'Oreal saw its stock price fall by 2% following a downgrade from the financial firm Jefferies.In contrast, luxury car maker Ferrari had a good day, with its shares climbing 2.6% after the firm Berenberg recommended buying the stock, citing the company's strong brand, pricing power, and consistent returns.On the FX front, the U.S. dollar fell on Tuesday. It hit its lowest point in two and a half months against the euro and a ten-month low against the Australian dollar.The dollar also weakened to a more than two-month low against the British pound, following renewed calls from US President Donald Trump for the Federal Reserve to aggressively lower interest rates.The US dollar index, which measures the dollar's value against other major currencies, dropped to its lowest level since July 24. As the dollar weakened, other currencies rose. The euro gained against the dollar ahead of the release of some key economic data from Germany and Italy.The British pound also strengthened, reaching its highest level against the dollar since early July, with new employment data expected and the Bank of England's policy meeting coming later in the week.The Australian dollar reached its strongest level since last November, supported by positive stock market performance in Asia.Finally, the dollar also slipped against the Japanese yen ahead of a Bank of Japan meeting on Friday, where a rate hike is not expected.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday, continuing the gains from the previous day. This increase was due to two main factors: concerns about a potential disruption in oil supply from Russia following Ukrainian drone attacks on its refineries, and the upcoming interest rate decision from the US central bank.Brent crude, a key international oil benchmark, saw a small rise of 8 cents to $67.52 per barrel. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also inched up by 11 cents to $63.41 per barrel.For more information on Oil, please read WTI Oil Rallies 1% After Ukrainian Attacks on Russian Oil Facilities, Russia Sanction Calls GrowGold prices reached a new all-time high on Tuesday. The price of gold was boosted by a weaker US dollar and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at its meeting this week.Spot gold's price went up by 0.2% to $3,685.02 per ounce, after earlier hitting a record of $3,689.27. Meanwhile, US gold futures for December also saw a small increase, rising 0.1% to $3,722.70.For more information on Gold, read Gold (XAU/USD) Technical: Eyeing a new all-time high above US$3,675, supported by positive flows and positioningEconomic Data Releases and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session will be a bit busy with German ZEW economic sentiment and Eurozone industrial production numbers due.Thereafter, markets will focus on Canadian CPI, US retail sales, US import prices and API oil inventories data. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE has returned to the top of the range it broke last week.Bulls remain in control as long as the FTSE remains above the swing low at 9242 which lines up with the 100-day MA.Looking at price action and this morning price came within a whisker of the 100-day MA before bouncing.Immediate resistance now rests at 9280 before the 9300 and 9340 handles come into focus.Looking at support on the downside, immediate support rests at 9243 (100-day MA) before the 9223 and 9198 handles come into focus. Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 15Following the positive post-CPI move, today’s session saw ecstatic flows around consistently higher equities.Despite trade tensions still in the air, the latest talks between the US and China centered around Chinese firms (like TikTok and their rights) recently happened, with the Chinese top trade envoy Chenggang reaffirming their positions.Nvidia was also hit by Antitrust fines in China, which preceded a pullback in the stock, which consequently rallied back, lifted by positive sentiment.In fact, it really was a commodity day in Markets: Coffee and Orange Juice finished their session above 5%, while commodity energies also saw a decent rebound amid continued Eastern Europe tensions. Overall, a downward move in the USD was welcomed by most assets except for cryptos which largely retracted after a very decent week-end session.In geopolitics, Arab nations are planning a meeting about the Israeli attacks on Hamas leaders in Qatar, which will prompt some interesting developments. Unfortunately, we are still too far from peace in that region. Read More:US indices surge with Nasdaq and S&P 500 leading before the FOMCThe US Dollar falls which takes the EUR to August highs – EURUSD and DXY outlooksGuide to the FOMC statement and September SEP: Key takeaways and what to watchCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, September 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView Asset performance was pretty volatile in this weekly open, with a particular appetite for commodities as detailed in the introduction. Between continued trade discussions, Eastern Europe tensions, a weaker dollar and pre-FOMC dynamics, commodities enjoyed their session.It will be interesting to watch how they do after Wednesday's rate decision – Rate cuts are typically good for commodities ceteris paribus but overall, it depends on economic activity and how hawkish/dovish a cut is.Cryptos are the losers of today's session taking a decent hit in the face after consecutive strong sessions.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, September 15 – Source: OANDA Labs Forex markets markets saw decent movement today, all centered about the flash selloff in the US Dollar (the extent isn’t too big but the form is consistent).The Canadian and Australian Dollar enjoyed it the most with the CAD finally seeing some relief after a very tough past two weeks and AUD reaching new yearly highs against the greenback on the session.Tomorrow should see even more action with consequent data releases for many currencies. Check them out just below!A look at Economic data releasing in Monday's session For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The Asia-Pacific session kicks off with Japan’s August trade balance figures at 19:50 ET. Markets will parse both the adjusted and headline balances, alongside exports and imports (YoY), to gauge external demand and the impact of yen weakness on trade dynamics.Shifting to Europe, Germany’s ZEW survey at 05:00 ET will shed light on both the current situation and economic sentiment.\The North American session is packed.Canada leads with a full set of August CPI readings at 08:30 ET. They will be key to watch ahead of the Wednesday Bank of Canada rate decision!At the same time, the U.S. reports August retail sales (headline, ex-autos, and control group) expected at 0.3%. Finally, New Zealand will publish its Q3 Westpac Consumer Survey at 17:00 ET, offering insight into household confidence and spending intentions, which could influence the RBNZ’s policy stance.With Canadian CPI and U.S. retail sales on deck, alongside a heavy flow of sentiment and production data, Wednesday promises significant movement ahead of Wednesday's FOMC and BoC action. Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Indices haven't stopped bullying through new highs on strong impulses, with Equity bears surely in awe.Markets which tend to slow down in consolidation before such key rate decisions haven't had the chance to stop a minute: Since last week's positive surprises in US inflation releases, American stocks and particularly tech-equities are on a historic run. NA and DAX indices performance since September 1st – Source: TradingView September seasonals are traditionally not the most favorable of such rallies, but seasonals seem to be a thing of the past these days – Who can stop this train? For now, certainly not short-sellers, war headlines, tariffs or anything of that sort.Participants are backing off slightly on the post-PPI and CPI 10% pricing of a 50 bps cut, however, an ever-ecstatic mood and a lower US Dollar is bolstering index performance. The Nasdaq is up just below 5% just this month. Stellar !The daily picture for equities is still red for some sectors but tech is more than okay, particularly Tesla (Elon Musk just bought $1B of Tesla today) US Equity heatmap, September 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView Explore levels and charts for all three indices with today's huge rally in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq and the Dow Jones, laggard of the session. Read More: The US Dollar falls which takes the EUR to August highs – EURUSD and DXY outlooksGuide to the FOMC statement and September SEP: Key takeaways and what to watchUS Indices intraday technical analysisS&P 500 2H Chart S&P 500 2H Chart, September 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView Participants did react to the potential resistance level mentioned in our previous Market analysis but was simply used during sideways consolidation that allowed an overbought RSI to decrease slightly to more sustainable levels.There won't be much technically to stop the Index in its rally until the 6,650 to 6,700 level (wide margin) as Markets will then attain some essential Fibonacci-induced targets.Watch for a potentially hawkish FED for any reversal but barring that, the momentum is very strong.Resistance LevelsDaily highs 6,617 (new ATH)Higher timeframe potential resistance around the 6,700 level (1.618 from April lows)Support Levels6,490 to 6,512 pivot6,400 Main Support6,210 to 6,235 Main Support (August NFP Lows)Dow Jones 2H Chart Dow Jones 2H Chart, September 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones has still retracted a bit today but is evolving in what resembles a break-retest pattern of the previous all-time high record (45,764) which comes at a similar level as the 2H MA 50. Bullish reactions will be expected between current levels until 45,500 (MA 200) as bears could take the upper hand below on profit-taking flows.Prices are still evolving within a rising wedge, which is one of the technical keys to monitor for US Markets. Levels for Dow Jones tradingResistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 46,145ATH Resistance Zone around 46,000 (+/- 150 pts)1.618 Fibonacci-Extension for potential ATH resistance 46,400 to 46,850Support LevelsPrevious ATH 45,764 acting as support (MA 50 in confluence)MA 200 and upward trendline of rising wedge (45,500)Key Support/longer-run pivot 45,000Support 44,200 to 44,500Main Support (NFP Lows) 43,000 to 43,750Nasdaq 2H Chart Nasdaq 2H Chart, September 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Nasdaq had been moving a bit hesitantly in the past few weeks of action but when it decides to go, it goes far and fast.Marking a new all-time high again today (same as the S&P 500), the tech-heavy index is bullying everything on its way. Reactions on Wednesday will be very interesting.Nasdaq technical levels of interestResistance LevelsCurrent daily highs (24,279)Potential Resitance 1 fib-Extension (from August 20 lows) 24,350Potential Resitance 2 fib-Extension (from August 20 lows) 24,550Support LevelsPrevious ATH zone turning pivot (23,950 to 24,020)23,500 support23,000 Key SupportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support Safe trades and a successful FOMC week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US dollar finally breaks its range ahead of Wednesday's FOMC as market participants keep placing their pre-Meeting bets.After holding between 97.50 to 98.50 since August 11th, the Dollar Index has failed to hold support to start this week to regain lows reached in the previous week's downward fakeout.With Equities rallying to their continued highs, hopes for a dovish cut are extremely optimistic which could lead to some furious reactions.This move notably weakening the US Dollar also assisted majors like the British Pound and the Aussie to reach new highs.As a matter of fact, despite the odds for 50 bps retracting from 10% to 4% since Thursday, the US dollar still broke support which could be due to position closing or hedging (more on this in the EURUSD analysis) – Some mean-reversion buying is happening as I write this piece which deserves a close look.The Euro is also getting close to its August 22 peak which got reached right after Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech – As the FOMC approaches, let's have a look at levels for the EURUSD and the Dollar Index. Read More: Guide to the FOMC statement and September SEP: Key takeaways and what to watchWTI Oil Rallies 1% After Ukrainian Attacks on Russian Oil Facilities, Russia Sanction Calls GrowEURUSD 4H Chart – close to new monthly highs but forms a convergence EURUSD 4H Chart, September 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView Buyers took the most traded currency pair to about 120 pips from its Monthly highs and will have to do more work to reach new highs.A short-term bearish convergence (where a lower high in price = lower high in RSI) could prevent further movement – Don't forget that even if Market had to retrace from here, rangebound consolidation could impede much movement before.Nonetheless, the action is still evolving in an upward channel which should be monitored for breakout/continuation scenarios.A dovish cut from the FED could easily propulse the pair to new yearly highs (currently 1.1830) and vice-versa, but looking at the charts and recent price action, downside reactions could be heavier on a hawkish FED (which would also trigger many other Markets to revert).Keep a close eye on pre-FOMC trading in the pair, the highest it goes, the more dovish the expectations for Wednesday. Levels of interest for EURUSD trading:Resistance Levels:1.1780 September 9th highsMain resistance 1.18 to 1.1830 (yearly highs)1.20 psychological level and 2021 highsSupport Levels:1.1750 Intermediate Pivot (+/- 150 pips)1.1650 Key support1.16 Main support1.1470 Pivotal Support (bearish below this)Dollar Index (DXY) breaks its range support, what next? It is surprising to see that the range that held so strongly amid many dovish data points (dovish NFPs, last week's CPI and PPI) just before breaking at the weekly open.These days, everything can happen in Markets but in the past, action tended to stay more rangebound throughout the first few days of the week before the Wednesday meetings. However, everything is possible!A test of the past week fakeout-lows is approaching and breaching it could lead to further technical downside. However, the fundamentals of players putting more positions right before the FOMC are not adding up too much, so my guess would be that participants are currently hedging for a potential 50 bps cut, leading to the current moves. Watch the 97.25 lows, buyers are currently mean-reverting right just above these lows.Levels to watch for the Dollar Index:Support Levels:97.40 to 97.80 Range Support (currently getting broken, fakeout?)Last Pivot before run-higher 97.15 Zone acting as Key Support2025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00Resistance Levels:98.00 Mid-Range pivot98.50 to 98.80 Resistance ZoneMid-line of the ascending channel and psychological level 99.50100.00 Main resistance zone Safe trades and a successful FOMC week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior publication, “Gold (XAU/USD) Technical: Overbought but bullish acceleration trend remains intact”, published last Tuesday, 9 September 2025.The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have traded sideways and managed to hold above the US$3,600 short-term pivotal support highlighted in our previous report. The latest speculative positioning and flows data in the gold futures market and exchange-traded funds are net positive, in turn, supporting the current short-term bullish acceleration trend of Gold (XAU/USD) since the bullish breakout above its former all-time high of US$3,500 on 2 September 2025.Let’s examine these positioning and flow data in greater detail.Net long speculative positions in gold futures have not reached extreme levels Fig. 1: Commitments of Trader large speculators' net positioning in Gold futures as of 9 September 2025 (Source: Macro Micro) Based on the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) data as of 9 September 2025 (compiled by MacroMicro), the aggregate net long positions of large speculators in NYMEX gold futures, after offsetting the positions of commercial hedgers, have climbed to +535,115 contracts, extending a steady four-month increase from +354,079 on 29 April 2025 (see Fig. 1).Net speculative flows, primarily from hedge funds, are often contrarian indicators; elevated positioning can trigger an opposite move in prices if market data or news disappoints.However, with the current net long positioning still about 20% below the five-year high of +655,096 contracts recorded on 24 September 2024, the short-term bullish trend in Gold (XAU/USD) appears to have more room to run, as positioning has yet to reach levels that typically prompt profit-taking.Gold ETFs' net inflows have recovered from a 2-month low Fig. 2: Weekly cumulative Gold ETF flows as of 5 September 2025 (Source: Macro Micro) In addition to steady gold bullion purchases by central banks since 2022, institutional and retail demand through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has gained momentum since May 2025, further reinforcing investor appetite for the precious metal.Total regional gold ETF flows have recovered from a net outflow of -5.17 tonnes for the week ending 22 August 2025 to a net inflow of 36.49 tonnes for the week ending 5 September 2025 (see Fig. 2).An improvement in the cumulative weekly gold ETF flows suggests a pick-up in demand from institutions and retail investors, in turn, supporting the short to medium-term uptrend phases of Gold (XAU/USD)Let’s now examine the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory of Gold (XAU/USD) and its key levels to watch ahead of this week’s key US Federal Reserve monetary policy decision, latest economic projections, and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. Fig. 3: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 15 September 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Maintain bullish bias with a key short-term pivotal support at US$3,600 for Gold (XAU/USD). A clearance above US$3,665/3,675 intermediate resistance increases the odds of another leg of bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at US$3,687, followed by US$3,725 (also a Fibonacci extension cluster) (see Fig. 3).Key elements The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have continued to oscillate within a minor ascending channel from its 22 August 2025 low, with its upper boundary of the ascending channel projected to come at US$3,725, and its lower boundary, now acting as a key intermediate support at US$3,600.The hourly MACD trend indicator has managed to find support at around the centreline, and it has now flashed out an impending bullish crossover signal. These observations suggest that the minor bullish acceleration phase for Gold (XAU/USD) remains intact.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below the US$3,600 key short-term support on Gold (XAU/USD) invalidates the bullish tone to trigger a deeper minor corrective decline towards the next intermediate supports at US$3,561 and US$3,536. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.