The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here.more to come Note: Will add overnight reverse repo operations to the open market on June 29 and June 30 to better meet short-term liquidity needs in the banking system. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Tamura is the most hawkish voice on the BOJ board and his comments will be read as the outer boundary of where policy could go rather than consensus, but the specificity of the 2% neutral rate target and the every few months cadence language directly echoes what appeared in the June Summary of Opinions, meaning he is not an outlier on direction, only on pace. His dissent on the JGB taper pause is the most market-sensitive element for the long end of the curve: a board member actively pushing for faster balance sheet reduction, framing the pause as a mistake, keeps upward pressure on super-long JGB yields and complicates the BOJ's communication that the halt was a stability measure rather than a policy retreat. The framing of Japan's situation as fundamentally different from the Fed and ECB, with the policy rate still below neutral and inflation expectations not yet anchored, removes any ambiguity about whether the hiking cycle has further to run. For JPY, the remarks are constructive on the rate differential argument but the yen's failure to respond to similar language in recent weeks caps the near-term impact.--- BOJ board member Tamura said underlying inflation has already reached 2% and called for rate hikes every few months toward a 2% neutral rate, adding the BOJ should not hesitate to accelerate if upside price risks heighten. Summary:BOJ board member Naoki Tamura said it is important to push the policy rate closer to the neutral level to avoid being forced into sharp rate hikes later, and put the neutral rate at around 2%, per his remarks on WednesdayTamura said his preferred pace is a rate hike once every few months toward the 2% neutral level, and that the BOJ should not hesitate to accelerate hikes or move by a larger margin if upside price risks heighten, per his commentsTamura said his view is that underlying inflation has already reached 2%, and that upside price risks exist regardless of Middle East developments, per his remarksThe board member said Japan's situation differs fundamentally from that of the Fed and ECB in that the BOJ's policy rate remains below neutral and inflation expectations are not sufficiently anchored, per TamuraTamura said he voted against the BOJ's decision to pause its JGB purchase tapering from the next fiscal year, arguing the bank should bring its bond holdings to normal levels as soon as possible, per his remarksTamura said the recent rise in long-term interest rates is consistent with fundamentals and reflects market participants' views on inflation and the monetary and fiscal policy outlook, per his comments Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura delivered his most explicit public case yet for an accelerated tightening cycle on Wednesday, calling for rate hikes at a pace of once every few months toward a neutral rate of around 2% and warning that delaying the journey risks forcing the central bank into sharper moves later.Tamura said his view is that underlying inflation has already reached the BOJ's 2% price stability target, removing what he characterised as the remaining justification for maintaining an accommodative policy stance. He said upside risks to prices exist regardless of how Middle East developments unfold, a direct rebuttal to the argument that the Iran conflict's resolution reduces the inflation threat. If those upside risks intensify, Tamura said the BOJ should not hesitate to accelerate the pace of hikes or move by a larger increment than the market currently expects.The board member drew a pointed distinction between Japan's policy position and that of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, noting that unlike those institutions the BOJ's rate remains below neutral and inflation expectations are not yet sufficiently anchored. That framing implies the BOJ's tightening cycle has structural ground to cover that its peers have already traversed.Tamura also disclosed that he voted against the board's decision to pause the reduction of JGB purchases from the next fiscal year, arguing the bank should normalise its bond holdings as quickly as possible. The dissent puts him at odds with the majority on balance sheet policy and keeps upward pressure on long-term yields, which Tamura said are rising in line with fundamentals and reflect market views on inflation and the policy outlook rather than representing any disorderly move. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

JPMorgan's Michael Cembalest said non-US equities trade at roughly a 25% forward P/E discount to US stocks, near record lows, but attractive valuations have failed to redirect flows away from US markets.Summary:JPMorgan's Michael Cembalest said the forward price-to-earnings ratio of MSCI World ex-US stocks relative to US equities stood near 75%, implying international shares trade at approximately a 25% discount to US counterparts, per JPMorgan Asset ManagementThe valuation gap has widened steadily over the past decade, falling from around parity in the mid-2000s to near record lows, driven by US large-cap technology outperformance and stronger earnings growth, per JPMorganNon-US stocks briefly traded at a premium to US equities during parts of the 2000s before the relative valuation compressed consistently in favour of US markets, per Bloomberg and JPMorgan Asset Management dataDespite the discount, international equities have struggled to attract meaningful flows away from US markets, where AI-driven earnings enthusiasm has continued to support higher multiples, per JPMorgan Non-US equities are trading at one of their steepest valuation discounts to American stocks on record, but the gap has so far failed to redirect the flow of global capital away from US markets, JPMorgan Asset Management's Michael Cembalest said.The forward price-to-earnings ratio of MSCI World ex-US stocks relative to US equities stands near 75%, implying international shares are priced at roughly a 25% discount to their US counterparts. Cembalest described the discount as the equivalent of a bug zapper for global asset allocators, drawing attention without reliably pulling capital in.The valuation gap has widened consistently over the past decade as US markets benefited from the dominance of large technology companies and a sustained earnings growth advantage. The relative measure stood near parity in the mid-2000s and at points briefly exceeded 100%, meaning non-US stocks commanded a premium. That relationship has since inverted and compressed to near record lows, based on Bloomberg and JPMorgan Asset Management data.The persistence of the gap despite its scale reflects the gravitational pull of US earnings momentum and AI-driven multiple expansion, forces that have proven strong enough to keep allocators anchored to American equities even as the valuation case for diversification abroad has rarely looked more straightforward on paper. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US equity index futures are trading higher on the Globex reopening for the new session also. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck north-central Venezuela on Wednesday, collapsing buildings in Caracas. The USGS issued a red alert warning of high casualties and economic losses of 1-4% of Venezuelan GDP. Summary:A magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck approximately 24 kilometres east-northeast of San Felipe and around 160 kilometres west of Caracas at 22:04 UTC on Wednesday, at a depth of 13 kilometres, according to the US Geological SurveyThe USGS PAGER system issued a red alert for both shaking-related fatalities and economic losses, stating that high casualties and extensive damage are probable and the disaster is likely widespread, per the USGSEstimated economic losses are 1-4% of Venezuelan GDP, and the PAGER report noted that past red alerts have required national or international response, per the USGSInterior Minister Diosdado Cabello said on state television that buildings and houses had collapsed in Caracas, though no immediate casualty figures were provided, per ReutersThe US Tsunami Warning System issued a tsunami threat for Puerto Rico, the US and British Virgin Islands, and the islands of Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire before withdrawing the warning within approximately one hour, per Reuters and CNNCNN reported a preliminary magnitude of 7.5 with a 7.2 foreshock occurring 40 seconds earlier, and noted the epicentre is close to some of Venezuela's largest oil refineries, per CNNThe USGS PAGER document identified San Felipe with a population of 221,000 as experiencing the most severe shaking at Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII, with Valencia, population 1.484 million, exposed to MMI VI shaking, per the USGS A magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck north-central Venezuela on Wednesday afternoon, collapsing buildings in the capital Caracas and triggering a red alert from the US Geological Survey warning of probable high casualties and widespread damage across a region home to millions of people.The quake hit at 22:04 UTC, centred approximately 24 kilometres east-northeast of San Felipe and around 160 kilometres west of Caracas, at a shallow depth of 13 kilometres. The USGS PAGER system, which assesses disaster impact, estimated economic losses at between 1% and 4% of Venezuelan GDP and noted that past events triggering the same red alert threshold have required national or international emergency response. The predominant building types in the affected region are unreinforced brick masonry and adobe block construction, which the PAGER report identified as particularly vulnerable to shaking of this intensity.Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello confirmed on state television that buildings and houses had collapsed in Caracas, though no casualty figures were immediately available. Emergency workers were filmed climbing through the ruins of at least one collapsed structure in the capital as darkness fell. Many residents were at home when the quake struck, it being a public holiday marking Venezuela's 1821 independence victory. A tsunami warning covering Puerto Rico, the US and British Virgin Islands and the ABC islands off Venezuela's coast was issued and subsequently withdrawn within approximately an hour. CNN reported a preliminary magnitude of 7.5 with a 7.2 foreshock striking 40 seconds before the main event, and noted the epicentre lies close to some of Venezuela's largest oil refining facilities. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The 83% surge in US shipments is almost certainly a pull-forward effect driven by tariff front-running rather than genuine demand strength, which makes the May headline figure a poor guide to underlying sector health. The EU and China export declines running simultaneously confirm the structural export pressure that has driven the year-to-date output fall of 8.7%. The "Made in EU" rules of origin question from 2027 is the medium-term risk that matters most for investment decisions, as uncertainty over market access to Britain's largest vehicle export destination will weigh on capex commitments at precisely the moment manufacturers are being asked to fund the EV transition.--- UK vehicle production rose 2.7% in May to 51,178 units, snapping four months of decline, as US shipments surged 83%, but the SMMT warned trade risks, energy costs and weak EV demand threaten the sector. Summary:UK vehicle production rose 2.7% year-on-year in May to 51,178 units, ending four consecutive months of decline, with car output up 3.2% to 49,249 units and commercial vehicle production down 7.6% to 1,929 units, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and TradersShipments to the United States surged 83.1% in May, while exports to the EU fell 5.2% and exports to China dropped 14.3%, per SMMTTotal vehicle output in the first five months of 2026 fell 8.7% to 317,779 units, per SMMT dataSMMT CEO Mike Hawes warned that weak underlying EV demand and rising compliance costs are putting competitiveness, jobs and future investment at risk, per his statementSMMT flagged the EU's "Made in EU" proposal and tighter rules of origin under the post-Brexit trade deal from 2027 as threats to UK vehicle access to the bloc, which remains Britain's largest export market, per the trade body UK vehicle production returned to growth in May for the first time this year, rising 2.7% from a year earlier to 51,178 units on the back of a sharp increase in shipments to the United States, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders reported on Thursday, though the industry body cautioned that the headline improvement masks persistent structural pressures threatening the sector's longer-term competitiveness.Car output grew 3.2% to 49,249 units while commercial vehicle production fell 7.6% to 1,929 units. Exports to the US surged 83.1% in the month, driving the overall gain, while shipments to the European Union and China declined 5.2% and 14.3% respectively. Total output for the first five months of 2026 remains 8.7% below the same period a year earlier at 317,779 units, underlining how much ground the sector needs to recover.SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes said manufacturers are committing billions to zero-emission technology but that weak demand and the rising cost of regulatory compliance are placing competitiveness, employment and future investment under strain. The trade body flagged the EU's proposed "Made in EU" framework and stricter rules of origin under the post-Brexit trade agreement, due to take effect from 2027, as twin threats to UK-built vehicle access to the bloc, which remains the industry's single largest export destination. High energy costs, compounded by the Middle East conflict, and intensifying competition from lower-cost Chinese electric vehicles add further weight to an already difficult competitive environment. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

If Marchioni is right and the new FOMC language is genuinely just housekeeping, money markets get a straightforward signal: the pace of Treasury bill buying will continue to respond to liquidity conditions as it has been doing, with no abrupt shift in the reserve management framework. The risk for markets is if she is wrong, or if Warsh's known skepticism on the balance sheet translates into a faster wind-down of the reserve management buying programme than the current $10 billion monthly pace implies. A sharper-than-expected reduction in reserves would tighten short-end liquidity conditions and push repo rates and money market yields higher, with potential knock-on effects for risk assets that have been priced in an environment of ample cash. The balance sheet having grown from $6.5 trillion to $6.7 trillion since December on the back of T-bill purchases makes the optics politically difficult for a Fed chair who has publicly argued the central bank holds too many bonds, and any signal that Warsh is moving to accelerate normalisation would be a material repricing event for front-end rates.--- NY Fed's Marchioni said new FOMC language reaffirming ample reserves is cleanup rather than a policy shift, pushing back on analyst readings that Warsh was signalling a change in balance sheet direction. Full text:The Fed's Balance Sheet and Desk Money Market OperationsSummary:NY Fed money markets director Dina Marchioni said at Crane's Money Fund Symposium in Jersey City on Wednesday that new FOMC language reaffirming ample reserves in the banking system should not be read as a significant change in policy direction, per her remarksMarchioni described the new wording as cleanup language and said the New York Fed retains significant flexibility to adjust the pace of Treasury bill buying in response to market liquidity conditions, per her commentsThe FOMC statement from the June 17 meeting, the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, included the line that the committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves, prompting some analysts to read it as a sympathetic signal toward the existing liquidity management approach, per the source materialThe Fed has been purchasing Treasury bills since last December to manage short-term market liquidity, with the balance sheet rising from $6.5 trillion in December to $6.7 trillion currently; the pace of buying has been moderated from $40 billion per month to $10 billion per month, per the source materialWarsh is described as a skeptic of using the Fed's balance sheet as a policy tool, believing the central bank holds too many bonds following years of asset purchases, and has launched a review of the reserve management programme, per the source material A senior New York Fed official pushed back on Wednesday against market interpretations that new language in last week's Federal Open Market Committee statement signalled a meaningful shift in how the central bank intends to manage its balance sheet, describing the addition as cleanup language and cautioning against reading policy intent into what she characterised as largely technical wording.Dina Marchioni, director of money markets at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, addressed the question directly at Crane's Money Fund Symposium in Jersey City, saying the new FOMC text did not change the direction given to the trading desk that implements monetary policy on a day-to-day basis. Officials at the New York Fed retain significant flexibility to adjust the pace of Treasury bill purchases in response to prevailing money market liquidity conditions, she said, and that operational discretion remains intact regardless of how the statement language is parsed.The wording in question appeared in the June 17 FOMC statement, the first meeting conducted under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and read that the committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. Some analysts interpreted the addition as a sympathetic signal from the Warsh-led Fed toward the existing approach to liquidity management, under which the central bank has been buying Treasury bills since last December to keep short-term rates anchored at the desired target level. Those purchases have caused the Fed's balance sheet to expand from $6.5 trillion in December to its current level of $6.7 trillion, a trajectory that sits uncomfortably against Warsh's well-documented skepticism of using the balance sheet as a policy instrument.The pace of Treasury bill buying has already been scaled back significantly, from $40 billion per month to the current rate of $10 billion per month, amid internal debate about the programme's future. Warsh has made clear he believes the Fed's accumulated bond holdings are excessive, arguing that years of asset purchases aimed at stabilising markets and supplementing interest rate policy have left the central bank with a balance sheet that is too large. He has launched a formal review of the reserve management buying programme, the outcome of which remains uncertain.The tension at the heart of this story is straightforward. Marchioni is a senior operational official speaking to the mechanics of how the desk functions today. Warsh is the chair who sets the strategic direction, and his priors on the balance sheet are unambiguous. If Marchioni's read is correct and the FOMC language was genuinely administrative rather than directional, money markets face no near-term disruption. If Warsh's review concludes that the T-bill purchasing programme should be wound down faster than the current pace implies, the result would be a tightening of short-end liquidity conditions that the cleanup language framing would have given markets no warning to prepare for. For front-end rates traders, the gap between those two outcomes is not a small one. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The market's muted response to both the BOJ hike and the Katayama-Bessent alignment language is the most telling signal in MUFG's note: verbal intervention and policy tightening are doing the job of slowing yen weakness but neither is reversing it, which leaves Tokyo increasingly reliant on the credibility of the threat rather than its execution. USD/JPY remaining below 161.95 shows the threshold is being respected, but the inability of 16 basis points of priced October hikes to generate a meaningful yen recovery suggests structural selling pressure is overwhelming the rate differential story. The joint intervention angle is the wildcard: Washington's participation in March 2011 was a one-off response to an acute shock, and any signal that the US is genuinely prepared to act alongside Tokyo in current conditions would represent a significant escalation with outsized market impact relative to what unilateral Japanese action alone could achieve.--- MUFG says the yen is holding below the July 2024 high of 161.95 as intervention risk builds, with joint US-Japan action speculation growing after Katayama said she and Bessent agreed to take "bold steps" on currencies. Summary:MUFG said USD/JPY remains below the July 2024 peak of 161.95, with the heightened threat of intervention helping to slow but not reverse the pace of yen weakness, per the MUFG noteFinance Minister Katayama told reporters after her call with US Treasury Secretary Bessent that the two sides agreed to take bold steps on currencies if needed and described the nations as increasingly aligned on foreign exchange policy, per MUFGThe alignment language has fuelled speculation the US could participate in joint intervention alongside Japan, a step MUFG noted has not occurred since March 2011 when coordinated action followed the earthquake and tsunamiPressure on Tokyo to act has intensified after the BOJ's most recent rate hike failed to arrest the yen's weakening trend, per MUFGThe BOJ's Summary of Opinions from the June policy meeting, which MUFG characterised as the minutes, showed the board has become less concerned about downside growth risks while many members flagged awareness of upside price risks, with one or two potentially ready to propose a hike as early as September or October, per the noteOne board member said it is desirable to consider raising the policy rate at intervals of a few months, and Japanese rate markets are now pricing approximately 16 basis points of hikes by October, though the repricing has not generated a stronger yen, per MUFG MUFG said the yen remained pinned close to its recent lows against the dollar on Thursday, with USD/JPY holding just below the July 2024 high of 161.95 as the threat of intervention continued to act as a brake on further weakness following a high-profile exchange between Japanese Finance Minister Katayama and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent earlier in the week.Katayama told reporters after the call that the two sides had agreed to take bold steps on currencies if warranted and described Japan and the United States as increasingly aligned on foreign exchange policy. The language, as MUFG noted, has stoked speculation in currency markets that Washington could participate alongside Tokyo in coordinated intervention, a step that would carry substantially more firepower than unilateral Japanese action. The last time the United States joined such an operation was in March 2011, when the Group of Seven acted together to cap a yen that had surged in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami.The intervention threat has taken on added urgency after the BOJ's most recent rate hike failed to arrest the yen's decline. The BOJ's Summary of Opinions from the June policy meeting, released overnight and described by MUFG as the minutes, added to the hawkish backdrop, showing the board has become less concerned about downside risks to growth while a number of members expressed heightened awareness of upside risks to prices. The document suggested one or two members may be prepared to propose a further rate increase as early as September or October. One member stated it would be desirable to consider raising the policy rate at intervals of a few months, language pointing to an active internal debate about the pace of tightening rather than simply its direction.Japanese rate markets have absorbed the signal, pricing approximately 16 basis points of additional hikes by October. However, as MUFG observed, the repricing has not yet translated into a meaningful yen recovery, leaving the exchange rate channel that the BOJ itself has cited as a key inflation amplifier through import costs stubbornly unresponsive to the tightening cycle. That dynamic places the intervention threat, and the question of whether Washington is genuinely prepared to act alongside Tokyo, at the centre of the yen's near-term outlook. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The flash crash warning on speculative AI momentum names is the detail traders will focus on, not the headline target upgrade. JP Morgan is effectively signalling that the easy money in second and third-order AI plays has been made and that the risk of a sharp, fast reversal is now high enough to flag explicitly in a mid-year outlook note. The recommendation to run a barbell of quality growth and direct AI plays against low volatility names suggests the bank is positioning for a choppier path rather than a straight-line continuation of the year-to-date rally. The caution around rising equity issuance and the prospect of tighter monetary policy as a multiple constraint adds a structural ceiling to the upgrade that the headline target number alone does not convey.--- JP Morgan raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 7,800 from 7,600, lifting its 2026 EPS estimate to $350, but warned of flash crash risk in crowded speculative AI trades and multiple compression ahead. JP Morgan's upgrade comes loaded with caveats, and the flash crash warning may matter more than the new target.Summary:JP Morgan raised its S&P 500 year-end price target to 7,800 from 7,600, lifted its 2026 EPS estimate to $350 and set a 2027 EPS forecast of $390, per the bank's mid-year global markets outlook published WednesdayThe upgrade was driven by an unprecedented wave of upward earnings revisions, with year-to-date consensus earnings growth revised up approximately 20% on average for the next two years, in line with a near doubling of AI capital expenditure budgets among technology hyperscalersHead of global markets strategy Dubravko Lakos-Bujas said the bank's biggest midyear regret was not being optimistic enough on earnings, describing the scale of upward revisions as unprecedented outside of post-shock or post-recession environmentsJP Morgan said speculative momentum trading in secondary and tertiary AI stocks has reached extreme crowding levels and that the market is at risk of a reversal and faces a high probability of a flash crashThe bank warned that rapidly rising equity issuance over coming quarters, alongside potentially tighter monetary policy, could constrain equity multiples, and expects the Fed to hold rates through 2026 before pivoting to hikes in 2027JP Morgan's preferred positioning is a barbell of quality growth and direct AI plays on one side and low volatility names on the other, with constructive views on tech, AI upstream plays including utilities and some industrials, defence, banks and select healthcareJP Morgan raised its S&P 500 year-end price target to 7,800 from 7,600 on Wednesday, citing an earnings upgrade cycle the bank described as unprecedented, but paired the bullish revision with an explicit warning that speculative crowding in secondary AI stocks has created conditions ripe for a flash crash.The new target, outlined in the bank's mid-year global markets outlook led by head of global markets strategy Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, sits approximately 6% above the index's most recent close of 7,365 and adds JP Morgan to a roster of at least seven research firms that have raised their S&P 500 targets this month. BCA Research separately lifted its own target to 8,100 from 7,700 on June 23, citing improved earnings rather than a willingness to pay higher multiples.The central driver of JP Morgan's upgrade is an earnings revision cycle the strategists say has no modern precedent outside of post-recession or post-shock environments. Year-to-date consensus earnings growth has been revised up approximately 20% on average across the next two years, running in parallel with a near doubling of AI-related capital expenditure budgets among technology hyperscalers. The bank lifted its 2026 S&P 500 EPS estimate to $350, representing a 29% year-on-year increase, and set a 2027 forecast of $390, though that sits below consensus, reflecting what the strategists described as the risk of diminishing AI-related pricing power over time.Lakos-Bujas and the team were candid about their positioning error, saying that in hindsight they should have been more positive on the earnings outlook from the outset of the year, given the scale of revisions that have since materialised. The increasing likelihood of a US-Iran peace deal has also pulled the bank's so-called blue sky scenario, which it first outlined in April after cutting its target to 7,200, meaningfully closer to base case. That scenario had originally hinged on a swift resolution to the Iran conflict allowing the S&P 500's earnings multiple to re-expand toward 23 times. The forward multiple currently stands at 20.7 times.The path to 7,800 will not be linear, the strategists cautioned. Strong consecutive quarters of earnings have reset expectations higher heading into the second-quarter reporting season, making it harder for companies to deliver meaningful upside surprises on both profits and capital expenditure. More acutely, the bank flagged extreme crowding in momentum-driven, lower-quality and speculative growth segments, particularly second and third-order AI plays, warning that a reversal risk is elevated and that a flash crash scenario carries a high probability. The bank advised investors to treat technical weakness as a buying opportunity rather than a signal to reduce exposure.On positioning, JP Morgan favours a barbell structure combining quality growth and direct AI plays on one side with low volatility names as a cheap hedge on the other. The bank remains constructive on technology, AI upstream exposures including utilities and select industrials, defence, banks and higher-growth areas of healthcare. On energy, the strategists noted that a 19% year-to-date gain argues for profit-taking despite the sector's credentials as a geopolitical hedge, and flagged consumer names as a potential source of relative outperformance if the Iran peace process holds. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A year-end Brent target of $78 from JP Morgan suggest a directional anchor for the market, reinforcing the bearish H2 drift that has been building in consensus since the Iran ceasefire removed the geopolitical premium. The detail on private operators refusing to draw commercial stocks is particularly significant for price structure: it means the apparent tightness being engineered by SPR releases is masking underlying market softness, and once government reserve injections slow or reverse, the cushion disappears. The projected oversupply in Q4 2026 and H1 2027 suggests the OPEC+ production management question, specifically whether members can credibly curtail output in early 2027, will be the dominant price driver heading into year-end. The constructive supply outlook for Venezuela, Iran, Brazil, Guyana, Argentina, Canada and the United States compounds the bearish 2027 setup and raises the bar for any sustained price recovery.--- JP Morgan cut its H2 2026 Brent forecast to $86/bbl in Q3 and $80 in Q4, targeting a year-end exit at $78, citing weaker-than-expected demand and below-forecast OECD inventory draws. Summary:JP Morgan lowered its H2 2026 Brent crude price forecasts on Wednesday, now projecting Q3 at $86 per barrel, Q4 at $80 per barrel, and a year-end exit price of $78The bank cited below-forecast OECD commercial inventory draws and larger-than-expected demand losses as the drivers of reduced upward price pressure, per the research noteJP Morgan said the oil market has rebalanced through a materially different combination of demand losses and inventory withdrawals than originally modelled, per the noteOil flows are currently running at approximately 8.6 million barrels per day and have averaged 6.3 million barrels per day in June, above April and May levels, according to JPMPrivate operators have largely declined to draw down commercial oil stocks, relying almost entirely on government Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases to keep refineries suppliedThe bank expects OECD inventories to draw by an additional 50 million barrels between April and July, and said production will likely need to be curtailed in early 2027 following a period of maximised output in late 2026JP Morgan said the market will enter 2027 with a constructive supply outlook from Venezuela and Iran alongside expected production growth from Brazil, Guyana, Argentina, Canada and the United States JP Morgan cut its Brent crude oil price forecasts for the second half of 2026 on Wednesday, projecting a year-end exit price of $78 per barrel and flagging a structural oversupply building into 2027 that may force production cutbacks from major producers early in the new year.In a research note, the bank set Q3 2026 Brent at $86 per barrel and Q4 at $80, trimming its previous targets on the back of weaker commercial inventory draws across OECD economies and demand losses that have run larger than the bank had anticipated when its prior forecasts were constructed. The combination has reduced the upward pressure on prices that JP Morgan had expected to materialise through the middle of the year.The bank described the oil market's rebalancing process as having played out through a meaningfully different mix of forces than originally assumed, with demand weakness doing more of the heavy lifting than inventory dynamics. OECD commercial inventory draws have fallen short of expectations, while the demand side has deteriorated by more than modelled. JP Morgan expects OECD inventories to draw by a further 50 million barrels between April and July, but the pace and composition of that process has shifted the bank's confidence in the price recovery it had previously anticipated for the back half of the year.One of the more structurally significant findings in the note concerns the behaviour of private oil operators. JP Morgan said private sector participants have largely declined to draw down their own commercial stocks, instead relying almost entirely on government Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases to maintain refinery throughput. That pattern suggests underlying commercial market tightness is less robust than headline supply-demand balances might indicate, since SPR releases represent a finite and politically managed source of supply rather than a market-driven response to price signals.On the flow side, the bank noted that oil shipments are currently running at approximately 8.6 million barrels per day, with the June average so far coming in at around 6.3 million barrels per day, a level materially above what was recorded in April and May.Looking further ahead, JP Morgan flagged that the scale of projected oversupply in Q4 2026 and the first half of 2027 points toward the need for production curtailments in early 2027, following a period of maximised output late this year. The bank added that the market will move into 2027 with a constructive supply-side outlook, incorporating expected production growth from Venezuela, Iran, Brazil, Guyana, Argentina, Canada and the United States, a combination that compounds the bearish pressure on the price trajectory and raises the stakes for OPEC+ cohesion heading into the new year. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A clean bounce in the May data, back toward the 30-45k range the major banks are forecasting, would be consistent with the RBA's existing read that the labour market is softening only gradually. A result that undershoots, or one where the unemployment rate stays pinned at 4.5%, would sharpen the debate around how much of April's weakness was genuine signal rather than survey noise. AUD/USD will be sensitive to the headline unemployment rate print above all else, with the market consensus sitting at 4.4%; a miss to the upside would pull forward rate hike pricing. The participation rate is a secondary watch, with Westpac flagging a modest tick back up to 66.8% as part of its base case. On the Reserve Bank of Australia:The base case: hold, but uncomfortablyIf the jobs data prints broadly as the banks expect, say 30-45k employment and unemployment back at 4.4%, the RBA is left sitting on a mixed picture that doesn't compel a move in either direction. Core inflation is running hot and accelerating, but the headline is behaving, the labour market is softening gradually, and the bank has already delivered three hikes this year. That's a board that waits.Where it gets complicatedThe CPI split verdict is the problem. Trimmed mean at 3.6% and rising gives the hawks on the board real ammunition, and a jobs print that comes in strong, say Westpac's 45k scenario with unemployment surprising down toward 4.3%, closes off the RBA's escape route. At that point you've got a tight labour market and accelerating core inflation, and August goes from a 36% probability to something much closer to a live meeting.ps. Westpac warns of Middle East second-round CPI effects, still forecast an August RBA hikeConversely, if the jobs data disappoints, unemployment sticks at 4.5% or goes higher, the board can lean on labour market softening as cover to hold and watch whether the core CPI acceleration is a one-month blip or a trend. Given the RBA has already moved three times this year, there's an institutional preference to pause and assess if the data gives them any room at all.The fuel excise wrinkleWorth flagging for August specifically: the excise extension runs to end-July, so the June CPI print, which lands before the August meeting, will still carry that mechanical headline suppression. That gives the board one more month of artificially soft headline cover even if core stays elevated. The RBA will look through it, but it reduces the pressure for an emergency-style response.Bottom line for AugustThe jobs print today is an important data point before August. A clean bounce to 4.4% unemployment keeps August as a hold-with-hawkish-bias. A surprise strength print, unemployment at 4.3% or employment well above 45k, and August inches closer to being genuinely live. A miss, unemployment at 4.5% or worse, and the December pricing at 67% probably starts drifting lower too as the market reassesses whether the tightening cycle has more in it at all.--- Australia's major banks forecast a May jobs rebound of 30-45k and unemployment easing to 4.4%, blaming April's 18.6k fall on Easter survey distortions rather than genuine labour market weakness. Summary:NAB forecasts employment growth of 35,000 in May and unemployment edging back to 4.4% from 4.5%, attributing April's 18,600 job loss to distortion caused by the survey reference period falling across both Good Friday and Easter Monday, per NAB previewNAB cautions that looking through monthly volatility, the underlying trend remains one of gradually rising unemployment as slower growth weighs on labour demand, per NAB previewWestpac is the most bullish of the three banks, forecasting a 45,000 bounce in May employment, arguing April's weakness reflected abnormal seasonality tied to Easter long weekend timing that was not fully removed by seasonal adjustment, per Westpac previewWestpac expects the unemployment rate to fall from 4.5% to 4.4%, with the participation rate ticking back up to 66.8%, and notes there is upside risk to the employment print if April's softness was driven entirely by holiday-related noise, per Westpac previewCommonwealth Bank of Australia forecasts 30,000 jobs added in May and sees the unemployment rate remaining at 4.5% assuming participation holds at 66.7%, citing internal data pointing to decent underlying jobs growth, per CBA previewCBA views part of April's result as a genuine signal of a gradually softening labour market, noting weakness was broad-based across employment, unemployment and participation, with only hours worked rising strongly, per CBA preview Australia's three largest banks are broadly aligned in expecting the May labour force survey, due Thursday at 11:30am Sydney time, to deliver a material rebound from April's surprisingly weak print, though they differ on the extent of the recovery and what it signals about the underlying health of the jobs market.National Australia Bank, Westpac and Commonwealth Bank of Australia all point to Easter as the primary culprit behind April's 18,600 fall in employment, the survey's weakest result since the delta wave of late 2021. The April survey reference period coincided with both Good Friday and Easter Monday, a combination that has historically weighed on employment outcomes and which the banks argue injected a degree of holiday-related softness into the raw data that seasonal adjustment did not fully neutralise.Westpac is carrying the most constructive view into Thursday's release, forecasting a 45,000 bounce in employment and a decline in the unemployment rate from 4.5% to 4.4%. The bank argues that if April's weakness was driven entirely by the Easter timing effect, the May result could surprise to the stronger side, with unemployment potentially falling below 4.4%. Westpac expects the participation rate to tick back up to 66.8% after slipping to 66.7% in April.NAB sits slightly below at 35,000 for employment growth and shares the 4.4% unemployment call, but is more measured in its framing. The bank notes that hours worked rose in April and there was little sign of a surge in layoffs, suggesting firms held back on hiring rather than cutting headcount, a distinction that points to May's expected improvement reflecting seasonal payback as much as any genuine strengthening of conditions. NAB is explicit that the medium-term trend remains one of gradually rising unemployment, with slower economic growth continuing to weigh on labour demand.Commonwealth Bank of Australia takes a more cautious read. Forecasting 30,000 new jobs, CBA sits at the lower end of the bank range and holds the unemployment rate steady at 4.5% under a base case that assumes participation stays flat at 66.7%. CBA's internal data points to decent underlying jobs growth, supporting its view that April's weakness was partly noise, but the bank notes that the softness was unusually broad-based, spanning employment, unemployment and participation simultaneously. Only hours worked ran against the grain, rising strongly in a move the bank describes as difficult to reconcile with the other components. CBA sees the unemployment rate drifting modestly higher from current levels as the broader economy slows, framing the labour market as in a gradual softening phase rather than a one-off distortion story.The market consensus sits at 30,000 for employment change and 4.4% for the unemployment rate, with forecasts ranging from 15,000 to 45,000 on the employment side and 4.3% to 4.6% on the rate. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Yesterday we had a mixed bag CPI report from Australia:Australia May CPI undershoots on headline but core inflation tops forecasts at 3.6%The rising core rate keeps the next RBA meeting, in August, 'live'. Today's jobs report will add more data for the Bank. I'll post a preview separately. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Crude oil futures settle at $70.34. Stays below the 200 day MA.Hong Kong’s largest ETF is a leveraged bet on a single stockBitcoin breaks $60,000 and falls to a 20-month lowBOC minutes: Members agreed the economy was weakMicron earnings after the close. With price up 721% from a year ago, is it priced right?U.S. Treasury auctioned off 5 year note at a high yield of 4.20%Silver and Gold continue to cool off. Both trade at new 2026 lowsCommunication services soar: A glimpse into today's market dynamicsUS EIA weekly crude oil inventories -6088K vs -4461K expectedUS May new home sales 580K vs 639K expectedOil below $70 is one of the most-confounding market moves everLife's Guarantees: Death, Taxes and the USDCAD moving higherGold breaks $4000 for the first time since NovemberUS Q1 current account -$226.8 vs -$215 billion expectedinvestingLive European markets wrap: Oil extends fall, US futures steady awaiting MicronThe U.S. dollar continued its broad-based rally today as traders remained in a risk-off mood, favoring the greenback. Expectations for a Fed that may hike in 2026, along with equity markets which are vulnerable. The commodity and risk on currencies were the biggest losers ( AUD, NZD and CAD), while traditional safe havens like the Japanese yen held in. The USDJPY remains above the rising 100 hour moving average at 161.515, but below the 2024 high price at 161.95. Getting above that level would put the pair at the highest level going back to early 1987.NZDUSD: The New Zealand dollar was the weakest of the majors, falling 0.41% against the greenback, with the pair dropping to 0.5644 as traders continued to favor the dollar amid softer risk sentiment. AUDUSD: The Australian dollar declined 0.30% to 0.6893, extending its recent slide after mixed Australian inflation data and growing concerns over global growth and commodity demand. GBPUSD: Sterling slipped 0.30% to 1.3164, pressured by broad dollar strength and the market's preference for safer assets. Political uncertainty is a drag along with a stronger dollar.EURUSD: The euro fell 0.22% to 1.1356, despite a modest improvement in German business sentiment and continued hawkish comments from ECB officials. USDCAD: The Canadian dollar was one of the better performers, with the U.S. dollar rising only 0.18% to 1.4232. However, they price has been up for six consecutive days, and is up 660 pips over the last 38 trading days.USDJPY: The Japanese yen outperformed its G10 peers, with the dollar rising just 0.13% to 161.78. Safe-haven demand and lower U.S. yields helped cushion the yen despite the broader dollar rally. USDCHF: The Swiss franc was the weakest performer against the dollar, with USDCHF rising 0.32% to 0.8123Overall, the dollar buying theme remained firmly intact, with the Dollar Index (DXY) holding near multi-year highs.Major US stock indices close mixed with a Dow industrial average higher while the S&P and the NASDAQ indices continued their weaker bias. Yesterday both of the broader indices fell below - and away from - their 100 and 200 hour moving averages. For the S&P, the 100 hour moving averages at 7444.93. The price is currently around 80 points away from that level as sellers take more control. For the NASDAQ index, its 100 hour moving averages at 26053. With the current price at 25476, there is 580 points between the moving average and the current price.A look at the closing level shows: Dow industrial average rose 184 points or 0.36% at 51856.18 S&P index fell -7.02 points or -0.10% at 7358.43NASDAQ index -110.40 or -0.43% at 25476.64The small-cap Russell 2000 eked out a small gain of 11.14 points or 0.37% to 2986.63.After the close, Micron beat on the top and bottom line with EPS coming in at $25.11 versus $20.78 expected. Revenues came in at $41.46 billion versus 35.85 million estimate. Shares are currently up 7.3% at $1124.50. That is still short of the all-time high price from Monday's trade at $1213.56 after declines over the last two trading days..Gold, silver, crude oil, and Bitcoin are all under heavy pressure today as investors continue to unwind geopolitical and inflation hedges.Gold and silver have fallen to fresh 2026 lows as higher Treasury yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and expectations for higher-for-longer Fed policy weigh on precious metals. Gold has broken below the key $4,000 level for the first time since November 2025, trading at $3,985.21, down $126 or 3.07%. Silver has been hit even harder, falling below $60 to $56.81, down $4.75 or 7.68%. Easing geopolitical tensions have reduced safe-haven demand, while concerns about slower global growth have added pressure to silver because of its industrial exposure. Technically, both metals remain below key moving averages, keeping the bias tilted to the downside.Crude oil has also seen a dramatic reversal, briefly falling below $70 per barrel for the first time since the start of the Iran war before rebounding modestly. WTI is currently trading near $70, down $3.20 or 4.40%, as traders strip out the geopolitical risk premium that had been built into prices. Improving tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, optimism over a U.S.-Iran peace framework, and expectations for additional Iranian supply have shifted the focus away from supply disruptions and toward softer demand and the potential for an oversupplied market later this year.Bitcoin remains under intense pressure after breaking below the key $60,000 level and falling to a roughly 20-month low of $59,018 before recovering slightly to $59,706. The selloff has been fueled by weaker institutional demand, persistent ETF outflows, and a move away from speculative assets as investors rotate toward equities and AI-related opportunities. Higher yields have also reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets like cryptocurrencies. Technically, the break below $60,000 is a significant blow for the bulls, with traders now eyeing downside targets near $52,500, $49,600, and $39,500. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The scale of the beat, with revenue coming in more than $5.7 billion above consensus and Q4 guidance topping estimates by around $7 billion at the midpoint, signals that AI-driven memory demand is compounding faster than the sell side can model. Gross margin guidance of approximately 86% for Q4 suggests pricing power is intensifying alongside volume, a combination that points to sustained earnings leverage through the rest of 2026. The results carry direct read-through implications for the broader AI infrastructure complex, including GPU suppliers, hyperscaler capital expenditure trajectories, and competing memory producers. For macro traders, a Micron print of this magnitude reinforces the view that the AI capex cycle remains firmly in expansion rather than digestion mode, which has consequences for US tech equity positioning, semiconductor ETF flows, and sentiment around rate sensitivity in the growth sector.--- Micron posted Q3 revenue of $41.46B against a $35.69B estimate and guided Q4 to $50B, blowing past a $43.24B consensus on surging AI memory demand.Summary:Micron reported Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue of $41.46 billion against a consensus estimate of $35.69 billion, per company resultsAdjusted EPS came in at $25.11 versus an estimate of $20.49, according to the resultsQ3 adjusted gross margin reached 84.9%, ahead of the 81.9% estimate, per company figuresMicron guided Q4 revenue to a range of $49 billion to $51 billion, well above the $43.24 billion Wall Street had expected, per company guidanceQ4 adjusted EPS is forecast at $31.00 against an estimate of $25.50, according to guidanceQ4 gross margin is guided to approximately 86%, above the 83.6% estimate, per company guidanceThe company cited customers' rapidly growing demand as the driver behind the results and outlookMicron Technology has delivered what may be the most emphatic semiconductor earnings result of 2026, posting third-quarter fiscal year revenue of $41.46 billion and guiding the current quarter to $50 billion at the midpoint, shattering Wall Street expectations across every meaningful metric and signalling that the AI memory cycle is far more powerful than consensus had anticipated.The revenue figure came in more than 16% above the $35.69 billion estimate and represented a near-fourfold increase compared with the same quarter a year earlier, when Micron posted $9.30 billion in sales. The sequential comparison is equally striking, with revenue climbing from $23.86 billion in the prior quarter, reflecting a pace of demand acceleration that analysts had not modelled.Adjusted earnings per share of $25.11 exceeded the $20.49 estimate by more than 22%, while net income reached $28.24 billion for the quarter. Adjusted net income came in at $28.86 billion. Adjusted gross margin of 84.9% was approximately 300 basis points ahead of the 81.9% forecast, a sign that pricing dynamics are tightening alongside volumes, giving Micron exceptional leverage on incremental revenue.The forward guidance compounded the shock. Micron sees fourth-quarter revenue of between $49 billion and $51 billion, with the $50 billion midpoint running approximately $6.76 billion above the prior $43.24 billion consensus. Adjusted EPS for Q4 is guided to $31.00, against a Street estimate of $25.50, and gross margin is expected to reach approximately 86%, a further step up from the record Q3 print. The company attributed the trajectory to customers' rapidly growing demand, language that points squarely at hyperscaler and AI infrastructure procurement driving high-bandwidth memory and DRAM volumes well beyond prior capacity assumptions.The results carry implications that extend beyond Micron's own stock. Memory has historically served as a leading indicator of broader semiconductor cycle health, and a print of this magnitude, combined with a guidance step-up of this scale, reinforces the view that the AI infrastructure build-out remains in a sharp expansion phase rather than approaching any near-term saturation point. For the broader technology sector, the numbers challenge the more cautious narratives around AI capital expenditure sustainability that have circulated in recent months and add weight to the argument that the current cycle has structural depth rather than representing a near-term demand pull-forward.Stock price jumped. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Micron reports:EPS of $25.11 vs $20.6 estimateSees 4Q at $31 vs $25.50 estimateFor some perspective, this was a $40 stock a year ago and is now making 75% of that in a quarter. Their margins are +85% as they've absolutely put the screws to the market on pricing as AI hyperscalers plow all the money they can into the build out.Micron shares have essentially wiped out today's decline and are up 4% after hours.Micron said it expects tight conditions to persist beyond calendar 2027 due to AI demand. They also said they're looking to make long-term deals with customers on pricing.“Micron is investing at record levels in technology, products and supply to address our customers’ rapidly growing demand. We believe our multi-year Strategic Customer Agreements will significantly enhance the durability and predictability of Micron’s strong financial performance," said Sanjay Mehrotra, Chairman, President and CEO of Micron Technology.He also said they currently do not have a line of sight to when memory supply will be able to catch up to demand.Update, shares now up to $1148. The high this week was $1213 and that would imply a nearly 20% rally from here. It's been volatile but I don't see any reason to question the amount of AI capex spending in these results and comments. The company is clearly a beneficiary of rapacious price gouging but that's capitalism and it's not like they're holding back supply. There's been unprecedented demand for their product and that's business. Reported revenue has quadrupled in the past year and that's almost all gone to the bottom line.If you take the Q4 fiscal guidance of $31 and annualize it, that's $124 in EPS and it puts the shares at only 10x. The problem is that eventually supply will catch up to demand and memory prices will do what they always do in that situation: crater. When that's coming the earnings and pricing leverage will collapse.That's why the company is looking to put in long-term agreements for memory but if you were a customer would you want to lock in at today's prices or anywhere near them? This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It was an ugly day in many markets as gold, silver, bitcoin and oil were all sold hard. Stocks mostly held the line though. There were even some strong bids early in the day before it flipped to selling. At one point it looked like the selloff could get ugly but late bids cushioned the blow. Closing changes:S&P 500-0.1%Nasdaq Comp -0.5%DJIA +0.3%Russell 2000 flatToronto TSX Comp -1.0%The main drag on the market were the memory names with WDC, STX and SNDK all down notably. Micron itself was down 2.2% while Nvidia fell 1.2%. Naturally, resource names also declined as commodity prices sank.Overall, the advancers led the decliners as travel names were near the top of the charts. Booking Holdings rose 7% and American Airlines were up 7.9% as oil prices fell back to pre-war levels. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Crude oil futures are settling down 3.92% at $70.34, extending the recent slide in prices. During the session, crude fell below the $70.00 level for the first time since the start of the Iran war, reaching a low of $69.63.For perspective: The gap low from March 2, following the weekend start of the war, came in at $69.20. The closing price on Friday, February 27, the last trading day before the conflict began, was $67.28. The closing price at the end of 2025 was $57.40. At the pump, however, consumers have yet to see the full benefit of the decline in crude prices. According to AAA, the national average price for a gallon of gasoline remains at $3.92, unchanged on the day. On February 27, the day before the war began, the average price was $2.98 per gallon.From a technical standpoint, crude oil closed below its 200-day moving average yesterday for the first time since late January. The 200-day moving average currently sits at $73.72. As long as prices remain below that key level, the bears remain firmly in control, keeping the technical bias tilted to the downside and opening the door for a move toward the March gap low at $69.20 and potentially the pre-war closing level at $67.28. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The signs of a mania in Asia are even worse than you think.For instance, the CSOP SK Hynix Daily 2x Leveraged ETF was launched in Hong Kong in October. It's now the largest ETF in the entire country, with more than $18 billion AUM and tracks memory-maker SK hynix.To be fair, it's been a great investment despite the decay of it being a 2x leveraged product.The problem is that it signals that speculation is out of control. Aside from being leveraged itself, we wrote about the proliferation of margin loans and bank loans for stock trading in Taiwan yesterday.Now I recognize these are two different places and markets but the common ground is that traders are betting heavily on memory chip names. In South Korea it's even worse as endless stories of degen trades leak out. It's the Bill Hwang-ification of the entire market. If you don't remember that episode, here is how it ended:When the leveraged trades unwind, it can be violent. We are getting a taste of that in gold, oil and bitcoin today but it wouldn't take much for it to spread to AI. In fact, I think it's inevitable as eventually there will be memory chip fabs coming online.I wrote yesterday about how memory stocks have had one of the all-time great runs and why this could be the end. Now it probably won't be because this kind of nervousness doesn't usually precede a top but the stakes for today's Micron's earnings report are huge. Greg wrote a preview of what to expect today. Aside from that, there are no signs of a change in the mood around leverage. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, more than 600 ETFs have been launched globally over the past six months, the fastest pace on record — and remarkably, nearly 35% are leveraged productsIt's obvious how this ends. Even if you're bullish, this is the kind of market where you need to keep one foot near the exit door. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Keep an eye on the bitcoin chart as it breaks $60,000. It's gone through that level and touched below the June 5 bottom of $59,125.This is a fresh low since September 2024.At current levels, the entire Trump 2.0 rally is already wiped out despite a host of crypto-friendly US policies. That's a poor fundamental sign and a problem for the bulls. There are few reasonable levers left to pull aside from a bitcoin strategic reserve and that doesn't sound like something Congress is at-all interested in.Today, crypto is caught in something of a sell-everything deleveraging in markets. Bitcoin is down 5% but silver is down 7.4% and gold is down 3%. WTI crude oil is down 4%, hot chip names are slumping and the US dollar is bid across the board. The winner today is the bond market with yields down 6-9% on a flight to safety.Bitcoin was s last down $3019 to $59,369 and about $200 from the June intraday low after briefly touching below it.I think the bigger problem for bitcoin, as I wrote earlier this month, is that it's lost its cool. The young men that dominate risk taking in markets are increasingly shifting to AI trades, meme stocks and options trading. Crypto has benefited from some of that but for 20-year olds, it almost seems institutional.Moreover, the use cases continue to be limited and the same talking heads parroting "bitcoin to $1 million" have lost credibility. The overall bandwidth for crypto is getting to be smaller outside of stablecoins, which are proving to be incredible businesses, but hardly investments at all. Technically, a breakdown here will squarely target $50,000 and that could come quickly if we get a poor earnings reaction from Micron later today and a 'risk off' wave hits the Nasdaq. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.