The AUD/USD technical outlook is decidedly bullish, with the path of least resistance to the upside.The pair successfully broke out above the primary descending trendline on the Daily chart.Bullish momentum is reinforced by a "Golden Cross" formation on the 4-hour chart.The 0.7130 level stands as the next major hurdle for the bulls.Most Read: The war premium vs. The yield premium: Which force will seize control and drive Gold’s next move?The Australian Dollar has undergone a significant shift in momentum over the past few sessions. After a period of corrective price action, AUD/USD appears to be finding its feet, buoyed by a successful defense of critical support zones and a breakout of descending trendline resistance.The Daily Chart: The Big Picture On the daily timeframe, AUD/USD remains in a broad constructive phase despite the volatility seen through February and March. The pair recently came within a whisker of the 100-day MA printing a low around the 0.6833 handle.The most notable development on this timeframe is the breakout above the primary descending trendline (black line) originating from the year-to-date highs. After consolidating near the 0.7000 psychological handle, price action is now challenging the 0.7080 resistance. A daily close above this level would clear the path for a retest of the 0.7130 mark before the YTD highs at 0.7187 comes into focus.AUD/USD Daily Chart, April 13, 2026 Source:TradingView.com The H4 Chart: Bullish Momentum Accelerates Shifting to the 4-hour chart, the bullish narrative is reinforced by the "Golden Cross" formation, where the 50-day MA has crossed above the 100 and 200-day MAs. This technical signal often precedes sustained trending moves.We can see a clear "V-shaped" recovery from the late March lows. The pair has successfully flipped the 0.7000 level from resistance to support. Currently, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is hovering near the 66 level; while this indicates strong bullish momentum, it suggests there is still some "headroom" before the pair reaches overbought territory, allowing for further upside in the short term.AUD/USD Four-Hour Chart, April 13, 2026 Source:TradingView.com The H1 Chart: Intraday Precision The 1-hour chart provides a granular look at the recent breakout. After a brief period of consolidation between 0.7034 and 0.7080, the pair has just printed a strong bullish candle, piercing the upper boundary of this range.The intraday moving averages (50, 100, and 200) are perfectly fanned out in a bullish alignment, suggesting that any minor pullbacks are likely to be met with fresh buying interest. The immediate focus for intraday traders will be the 0.7080 level; as long as price holds above this on a retest, the next logical target is the swing high at 0.7130.Key Levels to WatchResistance: 0.7080, 0.7130, 0.7150Support: 0.7034, 0.7000 (Psychological), 0.6913AUD/USD One-Hour Chart, April 13, 2026 Source:TradingView.com The RSI across multiple timeframes is not yet flashing "exhaustion" signals, though the Bearish Divergence labels on the H1 indicator suggest that the slope of the ascent might moderate. Traders should watch for a potential "throwback" to the 0.7034 area for a lower-risk entry if the current breakout stalls.In short, the technical outlook for AUD/USD is decidedly bullish. The confluence of a trendline breakout on the Daily, a moving average crossover on the H4, and a range breakout on the H1 suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the upside. The 0.7130 level stands as the next major hurdle for the bulls.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold prices remain caught in a tight range.The primary driver limiting downside is the ongoing tension around the Strait of Hormuz, keeping the metal in a state of limbo until clarity on the US-Iran situation emerges.Resilient US economic data and Hormuz inflation risks are forcing markets to price in "higher-for-longer" US interest rates.The immediate technical outlook is neutral, with support at $4,700 and bulls needing a decisive break above $4,804 to challenge higher resistance levels.Most Read: Markets Weekly Outlook - Markets brace for US-Iran talks amid post-ceasefire surgeGold prices experienced a rollercoaster start to the week with Hormuz inflation risks front and center after the US and Iran failed to reach a deal in Pakistan over the weekend.The precious metal continues to struggle for a clear direction as two opposing forces namely, the rising Middle East tensions and a hawkish shift in the Fed’s outlook tug at the precious metal.Despite a recovery since the initial post war selloff, the "safe-haven" rally appears to be losing its legs as traders weigh the risk of a regional conflict against the reality of "higher-for-longer" US interest rates.The Geopolitical Floor: Hormuz and the Iran Deadline The primary driver keeping Gold from a deeper retracement is the simmering tension between the US and Iran. With the deadline for US-Iran mediation approaching, the market remains on edge.Reports of a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have sent shockwaves through the commodities sector, primarily boosting oil prices, but also providing a fundamental "ceiling" for Gold as markets fear the higher for longer rates narrative.Downside is limited by the hopes of a potential deal given President Donald Trump's record of “TACO”. This is keeping the precious metal supported for now and sort of in a state of limbo until some clarity on the US-Iran situation comes to fruition.The Macro Headwind: Fed Outlook and a Resilient Dollar The Federal Reserve continues to act as the primary headwind. Recent US economic data has been uncomfortably resilient, forcing markets to rethink the timing and depth of rate cuts for 2026. This hawkish repricing has breathed new life into the US Dollar and pushed Treasury yields higher, making non-yielding assets like Gold less attractive.From a macro perspective, the "war premium" is currently being offset by the "yield premium." As long as the US economy continues to defy gravity, the Fed has little reason to pivot, and that remains the single biggest hurdle for Gold’s path toward the psychological $5,000 mark.Key Takeaways Given the factors discussed above, Gold is in a state of limbo and this looks set to continue. The only way the current narrative shifts is with some sort of resolution regarding the Iran conflict.If mediation fails and the Hormuz blockade becomes a reality, we could see a vertical move as the market prices in a massive inflationary shock and higher rates could send Gold prices tumbling.Conversely, if a deal is struck, expect the "fear premium" to evaporate quickly, but Gold could benefit as markets may view the inflation situation to be (for lack of a better word) transitory.For now, Gold is a passenger to the headlines. Traders should keep a close eye on the US Dollar Index (DXY) and energy prices, as these will be the primary leading indicators for the next major leg in the yellow metal.Technical Outlook - Gold Looking at the charts, Gold’s recovery is entering its third week, but the momentum is visibly waning. The price is oscillating within a tight range, finding immediate support at the $4,700 psychological level.While the 100-period SMA (blue) has transitioned from resistance to dynamic support near $4,606, the upside remains capped by the descending 200-period SMA (orange) currently hovering around $4,870.The RSI sits neutrally at 51.84, confirming a lack of directional momentum. Bulls need a decisive break above the recent swing high at $4,804 to challenge the $4,870 SMA and the elusive $5,000 handle. Conversely, a breach of the $4,700 support could see a swift retracement toward the $4,600 confluence zone.Key Levels to Watch:Resistance: $4,804, $4,870, $5,000Support: $4,700, $4,606, $4,500Gold (XAU/USD) One-Hour Chart, April 13, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Peace talks between the US and Iran collapsedCrude oil prices surged 7-8% following the news, as the US blockade aims to cut off Iran's oil exports of about 1 million barrels per day.European equities plunged, with the STOXX 600 falling 0.7%, reflecting a widespread "risk-off" sentimentDXY eyes a retest of 99.50Most Read: Q2 2026 US Indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100) Outlook – Resilience or retracement?The "Fear Trade" is back on the menu this Monday. Geopolitical tensions have hit a fever pitch after peace talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan ended in a stalemate. Vice President Vance has officially departed Islamabad, leaving a void where a diplomatic resolution was hoped for, as Tehran reportedly balked at Washington’s proposed terms.In a swift and characteristic escalation, President Trump has responded by ordering a full-scale US. military blockade of all Iranian ports. This isn't just a "wait and see" scenario; the operation is slated to go live tomorrow.The Logistics of the Blockade According to US Central Command, the enforcement begins at 10 a.m. ET (1400 GMT) on Monday. The military has emphasized that this will be an "impartial" operation, targeting vessels of all nations attempting to enter or exit Iranian coastal areas. Crucially for global trade and the energy markets:Strait of Hormuz: Vessels transiting to non-Iranian ports will reportedly not be impeded.Financial Penalties: President Trump added a further layer of pressure on Sunday, stating that U.S. forces would intercept any vessel in international waters found to have paid transit tolls to Iran.Market Impact: The "war premium" that had begun to bake out of the markets last week is likely to come screaming back. We are looking at a binary risk environment:Oil (WTI & Brent): Markets gapped higher after the weekend but are trading flat at present. While the Strait remains "open" for now, the risk of a miscalculation or a retaliatory closure by Tehran is high. The IRGC also stated that any ship approaching the Strait would be seen as violating the ceasefire.The Dollar (DXY) and Gold: The DXY also gapped higher while Gold gapped down and extended its slide in the Asian session. Gold has since turned and trades largely flat on the day.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Supply Chains: Commercial mariners are awaiting a formal notice, but the "toll intercept" threat adds a significant layer of legal and operational risk for global shipping firms.The diplomatic window has slammed shut, and we are moving from words to warships once more. Expect high volatility as the Monday continues.European Open: Geopolitical risk roils markets The "peace rally" proved short-lived. European equities tumbled on Monday morning as the optimistic narrative of a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East evaporated. The collapse of US-Iran negotiations and Washington’s aggressive move to blockade Iranian ports have sent traders scrambling back to defensive positions.The pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.7% to 610.44 points by 0718 GMT, effectively halting the momentum from last week’s 3% gain. The regional sentiment is decidedly "risk-off," with Germany's DAX sliding 1% and the FTSE 100 retreating 0.4%.The market map this morning shows a clear split between those benefiting from the "war premium" and those vulnerable to it:Winners: The Energy sector (.SXEP) is the lone bright spot, gaining 0.8% as it tracks the rally in oil.Losers: Travel and Leisure (.SXTP) has been hit hardest, plunging 1.9% on fears of rising fuel costs and disrupted global mobility.Heavily Weighted Drags: Banks (.SX7E) and Industrials (.SXNP) are under significant pressure, down 1.5% and 1% respectively, as the broader economic outlook dims.Read More:Markets Weekly Outlook - Markets brace for US-Iran talks amid post-ceasefire surgeNBP expands gold reserves and moves closer to the global Top 10Euro comes out swinging: Can the "Trump Reversal" sustain EUR/USD's upside bias?The outlook moving forward The DXY is up 0.4% today as markets react to the breakdown of Islamabad talks. Crude has surged 7-8% on the news of a U.S. naval blockade targeting the 1 million barrels per day Iran has been leaking into the market.The Strategic Play Washington’s goal is two-fold: drain Tehran’s coffers and pressure major importers like China and India to force Iran back to the negotiating table.Why Haven’t Markets Fully Imploded? Despite the escalation, two factors are keeping a floor under sentiment:Diplomatic Channels: The fact that Iran actually attended the Islamabad talks suggests the door isn't permanently locked.Infrastructure Safety: We haven't seen a return to the physical destruction of energy facilities, which would cause more permanent "scarring" to supply.We are in a high-stakes game of geopolitical chicken. If the blockade holds and exports drop, Asian demand will tighten global supply even further, keeping the bid under Crude firm.Outside of the geopolitical noise, the focus shifts to central bank "reaction functions" as the Spring IMF meetings kick off in Washington. With a heavy slate of speeches on the calendar, the core question is how policymakers will handle the current energy shock.Expect the DXY to remain tethered to energy price volatility. However, keep an eye on the 99.50 level, this marks the top of last week’s "ceasefire gap" and should attract significant selling interest if tested. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - DXY The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently navigating a technical crossroads as geopolitical tensions flare.Price action recently broke below an ascending channel, and we saw a retest of the 200-day SMA (98.50) and 50-day SMA (98.61). A sustained break below this moving average cluster could see the index slide toward the 97.70 support.However, after the weekend gap this looks less likely in the near-term with a move higher looking more appealing if the geopolitical status quo remains unchanged.A move higher may find that selling interest remains heavy near 99.50, the critical gap-fill zone.USD Index Daily Chart, April 13, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Traders should be wary of "headline risk" today. After the weekend developments we need to see how the situation plays out in real time before risk the risks can be adequately assessed. Until then the risk remains skewed to the upside for Oil and the USD and downside for risk assets including Gold.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Silver, Gold and the entire metals Market have been trading in confusion around US-Iran conflict and ceasefire newsStruggling to find stable ground, Participants wonder if they are still true safe-havensDaily timeframe analysis for XAG/USD, XAU/USD and XCU/USD (Copper) Metals have been an essential store of value and currency since the dawn of humanity.Traditionally seen as safe havens, however, their price action has been nothing but confusing, even before the onset of the conflict.Following the appointment of Kevin Warsh as head of the Federal Reserve, a massive wave of profit-taking triggered an unavoidable crash. They managed to retain a large part of their 2025 appreciation but haven't found stable ground despite the evident appeal of safe havens.Having stalled their corrections as geopolitical sentiment was starting to heat up (Greenland Crisis, Iran revolts leading to the War), the precious metals still could not muster the appeal to return to their January highs. Metals performance in 2026 – Source: TradingView, April 10, 2026. As you can see on the 2026 performance chart, metals reacted almost the opposite of what most Participants would have expected, particularly at the beginning of the War.This dynamic continued with them only rebounding as rumors of a ceasefire and negotiations began, pointing to a new realization: Around current levels, Metals are now behaving like risk assets.This reminds us that all asset classes and correlations move a certain way in "normal" Markets, but such historic trends can change brutally when:Prices get extreme and/or When volatility gets extreme (and Markets break).Turning back to today, what will happen if the war actually ends? Will they continue going higher? Why look for quite expensive safe havens if there are no more fundamental reasons to do so?If they are really risk assets, they should keep bouncing, but buying discounted Stocks and Cryptos makes more sense for a risk-on trade.Once again, these are million-dollar questions.Let's dive right into a Daily timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD), and Copper (XCU/USD) to see if technicals can tip the scales in favor of one side of the asset equation. Read More:USD/CAD forms a gigantic range after CA Employment – Will lower Oil prices endanger the CAD?Profit-taking in Stocks ahead of key weekend risk – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookMarkets Weekly Outlook - Markets brace for US-Iran talks amid post-ceasefire surgeGold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart and levels Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, April 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView Gold recovered strongly since reaching a catastrophic bottom two weeks ago, wicking at its 200-Day Moving Average (which remains a long-term barometer for bull-bear price action).On the bigger picture however, the trend remains much weaker for the yellow metals, and while not as bearish anymore, struggling to breach $4,900 puts the action into a sideways consolidation until further news.This gets confirmed with the neutral daily RSI.Look for a range between $4,400 and $4,800 until breakout or breakdown follows. Nearing resistance, some short-term downside could be expected soon.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):Resistance Levels:$4,850 to $4,900 Key Resistance$5,100 Pivotal Resistance$5,400 Wartime ResistanceCurrent All-time Highs – $5,500 to $5,600Support Levels:Intraday Momentum Pivot $4,675 (Short-term bearish below)December Record $4,548Pivotal Support $4,400 – Long-term Bearish below$4,175 200-Day MAMain Support $3,880 to $4,050$3,200 to $3,500 Major SupportSilver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart and levels Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart, April 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView Silver, more prone to risk, has been tracking better than its yellow peer.Still, the precious metal is evolving within its Daily Pivot zone ($75 to $79) and will soon face a very essential test ahead: Its 50-Day Moving Average ($79)Breaking it to the upside should see continuation back towards $84 at least $90 may quickly follow if momentum gathers paceRejecting it however would point it back towards $64More rangebound conditions could emerge for the long-run if it finds support there.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):Resistance Levels:50-Day Moving Average ($79)Key Momentum Pivot $75 to $79Major Resistance $84.50 Key psychological resistance $100 to $104Current Record $121.67Support Levels:Weak support at trendline ($73.20)Minor 2026 Support $70 to $72December FOMC Minor Support $64 to $66$50 to $55 October Resistance now Major SupportCopper (XCU/USD) Daily Chart and levels Copper (XCU/USD) Daily Chart, April 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView Copper is the only metal that has managed to form a significant bounce after retesting its 200-Day MA just last week.Bulls are still in control but will need to breach the key $5.90 level (top of daily pivot zone).Failing to break it to the upside could see a retest of the $5.50 Support, into a more rangebound price action ahead.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Copper (XCU/USD):Resistance Levels:$5.90 Major Momentum Pivot$6.00 to $6.10 Early Jan 2026 RecordCurrent ATH Resistance $6.40 to $6.50$6.52 Current RecordPotential Resistance $6.90 to $7.00Support Levels:Minor Support at March 2025 Highs $5.40 to $5.50War lows $5.18200-Day MA $5.24Major Monthly Support between $4.90 to $5.00Keep closely track of the latest war headlines, but don't fall in narrative traps as metals have now been moving on pure price action (and confusion). Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The announcement of a tentative US-Iran ceasefire led to the "unwinding of the fear trade".The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both enjoyed a strong recovery, finishing green for seven consecutive trading sessions. History suggests this momentum is set to continue.The week ahead is dominated by central bank activity, specifically commentary from the RBNZ, employment data impacting the RBA's decision, and the ECB's balancing act on rate hikes.Read More: Breaking News: US inflation surges to 2-year high of 3.3%, Dollar Index (DXY) slips as US-Iran talks in focusThe trading week was nothing short of a roller coaster, dominated by a dramatic shift in geopolitical sentiment that sent volatility through the energy and metals complexes. For much of the week, the primary narrative was the "unwinding of the fear trade" following the announcement of a tentative US-Iran ceasefire.Oil was the biggest casualty of this cooling rhetoric. Brent crude, which had been knocking on the door of triple digits amid threats to the Strait of Hormuz, tumbled as much as 15% mid-week.Gold, too, felt the pinch. After stalling at the $4,900 resistance level, the yellow metal saw its war premium erode, though it remains supported by a softer US Dollar. Speaking of the Greenback, the DXY is currently hovering near a critical "Golden Cross" support at 98.50. US equities enjoyed a strong recovery after the ceasefire news.The S&P 500 has finished green for 7 consecutive trading sessions, the longest streak since October 2025. The index has rallied +7.6% over this period, recovering nearly the entire war decline.A similar 7-day stretch has also been recorded by the Nasdaq Composite, the longest since August 2025. Source: TradingView Since the 1950s, the market has seen a similar streak with at least a +7.0% gain only 9 other times, per Carson Investment Research.Following this, the S&P 500 has been higher in 8 of those instances over the next month, with an average return of +4.4%.Over the following 3 months, the market has been up in 7 instances and has gained +10.2% on average.History suggests market momentum is set to continue.This was despite US inflation data rising 0.9% MoM with headline inflation rising to its highest in 2 years. Inflation data had been the key data release this week and came in largely in line with estimates which left markets to focus on the geopolitical narrative as the week came to a close.Heading into the weekend, markets are rather optimistic as the US-Iran prepare for talks in Pakistan scheduled to start on Saturday. The talks will likely have a massive impact on whether markets kick the new week off on a risk off or risk on tone.The Week Ahead: Central Banks in the Crosshairs Here is the summary of what I will be watching for next week in Asia, the US, Eurozone (EU), and UK with a quiet week expected from an economic data perspective.China & Japan: Asian Resilience?In China, market participants will be monitoring trade data and liquidity injections from the PBoC. With global growth concerns lingering, any sign of domestic stimulus will be welcomed by equity bulls. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 remains on a knife-edge. We are watching the 50-day Moving Average closely; a sustained break below this level could confirm bearish breakdown conditions, especially if JPY strength persists as a safe-haven play.Australia & New Zealand: RBA and RBNZ in FocusThe NZD/USD is currently testing major support at 0.5700. The upcoming RBNZ commentary will be pivotal; a dovish tilt here could see the Kiwi break lower. Across the Tasman, Australia’s employment data will provide the RBA with the ammunition needed to decide if they can afford to pause or if the inflationary spillover from energy costs requires one more hike.Europe & UK: The ECB’s Balancing ActDespite the ceasefire, European equities have remained cautious. The ECB is still pricing in two rate hikes, fueled by the lag effect of energy prices on core inflation. We’ll be watching the Euro (EUR/USD) to see if it can capitalize on a potentially stalling Dollar or if the Eurozone’s sluggish growth outlook keeps a lid on any rallies.The US: Geopolitics in focus as data remains lightA very quiet week in the US with the Fed’s Beige Book the highlight of the week. Markets are likely to be more engrossed by developments around the weekend talks with Iran and how that might shape markets and the US dollar in the week ahead. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Week - Nasdaq 100 From a technical standpoint, The Nasdaq 100 (US100) is currently exhibiting a strong bullish reversal after finding significant support near the 22,800 handle in late March.The index has staged an impressive breakout above the descending trendline that has constrained price action since the February peaks, signaling a shift in momentum.This trendline (channel) breakout sets the index up for a potential move of 2000-odd points to the upside, around the 26500 handle.Currently, price is wrestling with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (red line) at 25,013, which coincides with a structural resistance level. A daily close above this zone would clear the path for a retest of the 25,320 horizontal barrier.The RSI (14) is trending upward at 60.9, suggesting there is still room for further gains before reaching overbought territory.However, traders should watch for potential pullbacks toward the 200-day SMA (yellow line) at 24,568, which now serves as a key dynamic support. A failure to hold above this level would negate the recent breakout.NASDAQ 100 Daily Chart, April 10, 2025 Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

President Trump increased pressure on Iran ahead of direct talks in Islamabad, warning that Tehran has little leverage beyond disrupting the Strait of Hormuz and threatening further US military action if negotiations fail.The Strait of Hormuz remains the main obstacle to a lasting deal, as its continued closure is disrupting global oil and gas supplies, pushing crude prices higher, and keeping financial markets on edge.Despite a fragile ceasefire, ongoing fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran’s demands for a Lebanon ceasefire, release of blocked assets, and war reparations are complicating efforts to reach a broader peace agreement. President Donald Trump intensified pressure on Iran on Friday as the United States and Iran prepared for direct talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, aimed at turning a fragile two-week ceasefire into a more durable peace agreement. In a social media post, Trump argued that Tehran’s main source of leverage was its “short term extortion of the world by using International Waterways,” referring to the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial route for global oil and natural gas shipments that remains largely closed. He added that the Iranians “have no cards,” underscoring his administration’s hard line ahead of the negotiations.Trump reinforced that message in comments to the New York Post, saying US warships were being reloaded with “the best ammunition” and warning that fresh attacks could follow if diplomacy fails. Speaking about the prospects for a breakthrough, he said the outcome would become clear “in about 24 hours.”Strait of Hormuz remains a central pressure pointAlthough the ceasefire has broadly held across the Middle East, the continuing closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most serious obstacles to lasting stability. Before the war, the strait carried roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas, making its disruption a major threat to global energy supplies.So far, there has been little sign of a meaningful increase in shipping traffic since the truce began. Shipowners appear reluctant to resume normal operations until the status of the waterway becomes clearer. A Russian-flagged supertanker was reported passing through the strait late Thursday, but such movement has been rare. The blockade has kept pressure on oil markets, with US crude rising to around $99 a barrel, while financial markets remained volatile as investors weighed the risk of renewed military escalation. Daily timeframe of Crude Oil, source: TradingView Trump had already criticized Iran on Thursday for failing to allow oil shipments to move freely through the strait and warned Tehran against imposing fees on tankers. Even so, he has continued to express cautious optimism about a possible agreement, describing Iran’s leaders in an NBC News interview as more reasonable in private than their public statements suggest.Iran signals conditions for diplomacyIran, however, has made clear that it is entering the talks with its own demands. Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf said that a ceasefire in Lebanon must be in place before negotiations can begin. He also called for the release of Iran’s blocked assets, though he did not provide further details.An Iranian delegation was expected to arrive in Islamabad on Friday night, according to officials in Pakistan’s capital. Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi were set to lead the delegation. On the US side, Vice President JD Vance, who is heading the American team, said before departing for Pakistan that Trump had issued “clear guidelines” for the talks. Vance also warned Tehran not to underestimate Washington or attempt to manipulate the process.Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, added another layer of uncertainty by stating on Telegram that Iran would bring the management of the Strait of Hormuz “to a new stage.” It remained unclear whether that meant Iran would renew earlier demands to retain greater control over the waterway, a position the United States has previously rejected. Khamenei also repeated Iran’s call for war reparations, a demand that is widely expected to be unacceptable to US negotiators.Fighting in Lebanon threatens to complicate peace effortsAt the same time, continued violence in Lebanon threatens to undermine the diplomatic opening between Washington and Tehran. Israel continued striking towns in southern Lebanon, though on a smaller scale than the major operation earlier in the week that reportedly killed more than 200 people. Hezbollah responded with drones and rocket attacks toward Israel, where medics said several people were injured in central and southern areas.Trump said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed to keep operations in Lebanon “low-key” after the two leaders spoke by phone on Wednesday. Still, Netanyahu has maintained that the ongoing fighting in Lebanon is separate from the US-Iran ceasefire arrangement. He also said Israel would open direct talks with Lebanon on disarming Hezbollah and ending the conflict, with the United States expected to host a meeting next week, according to a State Department official.Despite these diplomatic gestures, Hezbollah has shown no sign of retreat. Secretary-General Naim Qasem declared that the group’s “resistance will continue until its last breath,” signaling that the Lebanese front could remain active even if US-Iran talks make progress.Human and economic costs continue to mountThe broader war in the Middle East has inflicted heavy human and economic losses over the past six weeks. Thousands have been killed, and critical energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf has been damaged. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has further strained global fuel supplies and deepened uncertainty in energy markets.According to figures cited in the report, more than 5,500 people have died across the region. More than 3,600 deaths have been estimated in Iran, while Lebanon has reported over 1,700 fatalities. Israel says it has killed more than 1,400 Hezbollah militants, including 200 in a single day on Wednesday. Israel itself has reported around three dozen deaths, with a similar number recorded across Gulf Arab states. Iraq has also suffered dozens of casualties, and US Central Command says 13 American troops have been killed. Although the United States and Iran appear to have paused most direct strikes, the situation remains highly unstable. Kuwait’s Foreign Ministry said Iran and its proxies carried out fresh attacks overnight on Thursday, though no further reports emerged on Friday.A Fragile opening for peaceThe talks in Islamabad now represent a critical test of whether the ceasefire can evolve into something more permanent. The United States is entering the negotiations with military pressure and a demand for freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, meanwhile, is seeking political concessions, financial relief, and broader regional guarantees, particularly in Lebanon.For now, the truce is holding, but only just. With the Strait of Hormuz still largely shut, oil markets under strain, and fighting continuing in Lebanon, the negotiations face immediate and serious obstacles. The coming days will show whether diplomacy can overcome these pressures or whether the region will slide back toward wider conflict. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 9 The US-Iran Ceasefire is still holding, but its threads are very thin.Back-and-forth threats from the Iranian side concerning their disagreements with Trump's 15-point plan have almost led to a catastrophe, but the US Administration seems quite serious about the ongoing peace negotiations.While the White House originally denied Lebanon being part of the ceasefire agreement, Iran made it clear that they would not agree to a peace process with Israeli-Hezbollah tensions still blazing.While this led to a striking build-up of tension pulling WTI Crude back above $100 (to $104), the US President and Israeli PM Netanyahu agreed to reopen diplomatic lines with the Lebanese government to ease this side of the battleground.A significant easing in the narrative, which soothed Markets that were quickly returning to tension.Still, Iran demands a complete ceasefire in Lebanon before the discussion properly starts, something that Israel has not yet communicated. Their demands are for Lebanon to get rid of Hezbollah members from the Ministry.Shortly after the news, WTI quickly dropped and has officially settled right below the $100 psychological level, which allowed global Equities to push towards new cycle highs.Even after topping, as Participants continue to seek greater certainty, Markets seem to have turned the page on the recent conflict.Metals and Bonds have built a slow but steady rebound, Cryptocurrencies are rising again from the bottom, the US Dollar sags, and, before anything, Volatility has reached pre-conflict levels. Expectations are high, so traders will want to ensure sentiment doesn't fail again. VIX (S&P Volatility Index) 4H Chart. April 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView Read More:Has Crypto heard enough for a rally? Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH) OutlookCeasefire uncertainty clears and Wall Street persists – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookUS CPI Preview: US dollar index (DXY) at a critical crossroads ahead of looming CPI spikeStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – April 9, 2026 The daily heatmap still paints a fractured, yet progressively more consistent Stock market picture.Amazon has led mega caps, with Tech Electronics and Producer Manufacturing shining bright from the easier narrative.Softwares are back on the dumping line as Stock Buyers still aim for targeted inflows and the Private Credit situation continues to loom in the back of all these war headlines.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, April 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView This session was quite chaotic, a new normal for Markets in recent times.Traders will be looking for headlines before moving further on any bullish ambitions.With the rollercoaster action, it is still difficult to assume any trends, so keep your expectations low for consistency (except if anything fundamentally changes), with quick trades remaining the way to go for the time being.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, April 9, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Currency Markets are slowly easing their war flows in progressive waves, with the US Dollar lagging at the cost of the more risk-on (and breathing again) Antipodean currencies – NZD and AUD.About the New Zealand Dollar, the recent hawkish turn from the RBNZ should bring it back into interest but this will once again be contingent on Market mood remaining more positive.The JPY has also largely struggled as a recent interview of Bank of Japan's Ueda pushed back the pricing for imminent rate hike at the April 28 meeting.A look at Economic data releasing over tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tomorrow will be a banger of a session for volatility fiends – Combine recent chaos in geopolitics ahead of a key weekend, and add to it a few spices including US CPI, German Inflation and Canadian Employment, and you have there a perfect storm.Don't forget to check out our US CPI preview!With the truce still fragile, keep a close eye on the negotiations and US-Iran communications.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Cryptocurrencies haven't found steady momentum for a rally during major market swings.Recent dynamics have helped ease the harsh selloffs seen over the past six months. There has been a shift toward alternative assets amid a market-shattering conflict. Bitcoin reached its 50% retracement from its $120,000 record highs, coinciding with the mining of its 20 millionth unit. Additionally, Jane Street has reportedly stepped back from alleged market manipulations.What will prompt crypto supporters to drive prices upward again? As always, this remains a million dollar question.As investors and traders, our focus should be on preparing for upcoming opportunities by identifying entry and exit points, setting action criteria, and developing a robust strategy.When preparation meets opportunity, investors may find that the current environment could favor them.While stock markets have recovered more than 50% of their wartime losses, cryptocurrencies are still aiming to generate more ecstatic returns at the top of the cross-asset performance board. Before diving into Bitcoin and Ethereum charts, let's examine a few market dynamics.ETF inflows and outflows Cryptocurrencies ETF Flows – Source: CoinGlass. April 9, 2026 Crypto ETFs have finally eased their persistent outflows seen since October, with a bottom in mid-February and an actual, slow but consistent growth.Ethereum has actually dominated the recent turn but there is more work to do – Runs always start (particularly for Altcoins), when the second largest crypto awakens.A look into the Crypto Market Cap Total Crypto Market Cap – Daily Chart. April 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Crypto Market Cap is showing some positive signs after bottoming in Mid-February and slowly building higher lows, indicating that the bulk of the selloff is now behind us.The move higher from Monday allowed it to breach the 50-Day Moving Average and the downward trendline from 2026.Signs of recovery are still young and will need to strengthen further, but these are better developments for Digital Assets.Let's dive right into the intraday Charts with technical levels for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Current Session in Cryptos – April 9, 2026 (15:18). Courtesy of Finviz Read More:Ceasefire uncertainty clears and Wall Street persists – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookUS CPI Preview: US dollar index (DXY) at a critical crossroads ahead of looming CPI spikeOil just doesn't want to correct with persistent Ceasefire uncertainty – WTI Technical analysisBitcoin (BTC) 4H Chart and Technical Levels Bitcoin (BTC) 4H Chart, April 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView Luckily for Crypto bulls, Bitcoin did not complete its short-term head & shoulders pattern as the narrative largely softened since and allowed some new risk-on inflows.Having now formed a higher low, the Main Crypto have its buyers back into relative control, particularly after bouncing above the $70,000 pivot zone. Three technical elements will be needed to pursue real chances of a rebound:Bulls will need to break $72,700, which failed twice today and forming an intraday bearish divergence – This is due to the general stalling in risk-assets seen today.On the longer-run, pushing above $76,100 (FOMC highs & Channel highs) could easily relaunch a run towards new all-time highs.Falling back below $68,750 however would point to higher chances of continued downside (less probable scenario for now)Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels:$70,000 Short-term momentum Pivot (50 and 200-4H MA)$60,000 to $63,000 Main 2024 support (recent double bottom)$59,935 February Lows$52,000 to $58,000 Next support and 200-Week MA ($55,000 Mid-point)$40,000 Mid-2024 breakout supportResistance Levels:Short term Top – $72,700FOMC Highs $76,200 (Bulls need to break!)$75,000 Key long-term Pivot (acting as resistance)$80,000 to $83,000 mini-resistance (50-Day MA)$90,000 to $95,000 Pivotal ResistanceCurrent ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000Ethereum (ETH) 4H Chart and Technical Levels Ethereum (ETH) 4H Chart, April 9, 2026– Source: TradingView The rebound in Ethereum is even more consistent than BTC, currently testing the upper bound of its October downtrend – A key test for what is coming ahead.The bouncing RSI and counter-trend upward channel provides a favorable path for an upside breakout. The rest will be contingent on whether the general Market dynamic is still positive for global risk-taking.A break above $2,300 would confirm a new breakout, with $2,600 coming next (above, the rebound is definitely confirmed!).A breakout in Ethereum should also allow other altcoins to shine (look for the most consistent alts before, and later into the cycle if one really arrives, memecoins – they have struggled in the past cycle so it's still early to say if they will even have their time!)Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:4H 50 and 200 MA $2,118Channel lows $2,000$1,700 to $1,800 Pre-Bounce 2025 Key Support (testing)$1,744 February 6 lows$1,380 to $1,500 2025 Support2025 Lows $1,384Resistance Levels:March 4 Highs $2,201 (breaking!)$2,300 June War Key Pivot (bullish above)$2,500 to $2,700 June 2025 Key Support now Resistance (Channel Highs)$3,000 to $3,200 Major momentum Pivot (Test of the $3,000)$4,950 Current new All-time highsThe narrative is easing, but keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 8 The US-Iran ceasefire is officially on the table, and Market bulls have returned with fierce conviction, but despite all the progress from the past 24 hours, the path is going to be quite rocky.Wall Street exploded in a massive relief rally since yesterday's late session, completely reversing the recent geopolitical panic that had gripped risk assets.Global equities aggressively erased close to 50% of their war-induced drawdowns in a single session, with the Nasdaq surging about 2.70% to lead the charge.This sudden de-escalation also triggered the abrupt unwinding of the dominant petrodollar trade. As Crude Oil tumbled , the US Dollar was hammered across the board, especially more pressured by its recent double top as the safe-haven and inflation-hedge premiums evaporated simultaneously.And when the Dollar tumbles, animal spirits come out – Virtually all global assets close in the green today.Energy markets however took the most violent hit, with WTI crude initially plummeting 20% toward the $92 handle.However, the commodity is already creeping higher as traders scour the headlines for clarity on the actual terms of this temporary two-week truce (which is for now still quite foggy).The ink on this fragile ceasefire is barely dry, and severe cracks are already showing.Despite persistent optimism from the US President, the Iranian side has maintained a sour tone as some of their demands apparently have been violated (demands which haven't been made available to the public).Adding a massive layer of uncertainty to the newly minted bullish sentiment, Iran is expressing their mistrusts due to an intruding drone in Iranian airspace and disputes over nuclear enrichment rights. He warned that negotiating under these conditions is inherently unreasonable.While the broader market is currently riding the high of a fading war premium, this immediate diplomatic friction suggests the ceasefire is resting on incredibly thin ice, so traders will have to remain cautious for times ahead! Read More:The Petrodollar trade is over, Dollar tumbles – EUR/USD, AUD/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overviewBulls are back in vengeance after the US-Iran Ceasefire – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookWall Street in ecstasy! It's almost like nothing happened – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateCeasefire Crash: Oil tumbles 15% as US-Iran deal unwinds global 'fear trade'Stock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – April 8, 2026 Despite the fragile truce, Stock Market bulls haven't shown the slightest concern, going on an absolute wreckage to pick up the sectors which have struggled the most, including Producer Manufacturing and Tech – Retail Sales is also a strong performer.On the other side of the performance space however, Energy Stocks and Communications took large hits, seeing relative disinterest due to the fact that both sectors held so well throughout the entire conflict.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, April 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today marks the return of animal spirits across all Markets, with the highest beta (riskiest) assets shining bright (including Ethereum and European Stocks), at the cost of the US Dollar and WTI Oil.When Inflation fears ease, this is a typical picture – Keep a close eye on the negotiations on the US and Iran side as it could quickly rock recent optimism.If the deal persists and progresses, expect these flows to continue.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, April 8, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs The US and Canadian Dollars, the two largest winners of Middle East and Crude Oil turmoil are now giving back their hard earned premium, which is profiting particularly to Antipodeans (heavily affected by Oil droughts), and following by other Risk-on currencies such as the Euro and GBP.The Swissie and Japanese Yen are some laggards, as the risk-on mood did not corroborate with their outperformance.A look at Economic data releasing over tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The next 24 hours should be somewhat calmer, with eyes turning back to the macro board.The overnight session will see a few releases for Germany, but all eyes will be on tomorrow's Core PCE release as it should now reflect the first damages of the war-led inflation hits.With the truce still fragile, keep a close eye on the negotiations and US-Iran communications.Safe Trades and a Successful Week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar has seen its best days throughout the last two months, with the infamous Petrodollar trade grabbing all the attention from Market participants and flows.Crude Oil prices, denominated and traded in US Dollars, rose by close to 100% from mid-February to just yesterday, amid a historic and brutal conflict in the Middle East.A 6-week-long operation led by the US and Israeli armies against the Islamic regime of Iran completely changed the geopolitical picture, which in turn affected Markets in a striking manner.The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which facilitates the movement of close to 20% of global Energy commodity flows, has completely rocked inflation expectations and, for the regular Economy and all its participants, prices at the pump.With much higher petrol prices, entire regions, particularly those dependent on Middle Eastern oil, had to race to hedge against the risk of shortages, and, by doing so, convert their currencies to the US Dollar, which created its own self-fulfilling prophecy.Add to it pre-existing short-positioning, and a Fed that was starting to get priced for rate hikes as Inflation expectations exploded, and the cocktail for the Greenback was a profitable one. The Petrodollar trade – Oil and US Dollar Correlation. Source: TradingView. April 8, 2026 However, since yesterday evening, the situation has taken quite an unexpected turn. Markets were slowly pricing the potential for a truce, with US pressure to reach a ceasefire extending, but less than 36 hours before the headline, Iran had just rejected a US proposition.Yet, the pressure from the Trump Administration actually worked, and the two sides reached a deal, albeit still quite a foggy one for now.The prior ease in tone had formed a double top in the Dollar Index, but the lack of progress in the situation had kept angst high in the currency Markets. However, yesterday's Ceasefire headline brought the hammer to the US Dollar.After the news, the Dollar lost close to a percentage point against most of its FX peers, and has boarded a similar move in today's action. Current Session's FX Performance – Courtesy of Finviz. April 8, 2026 A short-term pullback has emerged in the past few hours, but the uptrend from the past months has taken a decisive turn.We will look at the Dollar Index, EUR/USD, and AUD/USD to assess the current state of the Market and whether the Dollar will actually suffer from the latest geopolitical truce. Discover:Bulls are back in vengeance after the US-Iran Ceasefire – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookWall Street in ecstasy! It's almost like nothing happened – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateCeasefire Crash: Oil tumbles 15% as US-Iran deal unwinds global 'fear trade'Dollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index Daily Chart, April 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar has officially broken its January uptrend after today's gap lower in the Dollar Index.After forming a double top in recent action, sellers have now officially taken control by breaking the 20-Day Moving average (99.75), but stalled at the quintessential 98.70 - 99.00 War Support.With WTI correcting higher, the USD is following suit, but this for now only hints at a pullback from oversold conditions (in shorter timeframes) – The counter move has now stalled; any continuation higher should stall around 99.50 (Gap fill) and this would offer optimal entries on Dollar shorts.Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Resistance Levels99.40 to 99.50 Momentum Pivot (and Gap Fill level)Initial War Spike 99.68Weekly range highs 100.00100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance ZoneWar Highs 100.544Support Levels98.70 to 99.00 Support (War support)98.57 50 and 200 4H MA (recent lows)98.00 2025 SupportSupport 97.40 to 97.602025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 SupportAUD/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels AUD/USD 4H Chart, April 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView AUD/USD largely reversed its mid-March tumble lower, stalling around its 0.618% Fibonacci level (0.7080).With a short-term pullback in the US Dollar, AUD/USD bulls could take the advantage again when the RSI eases enough as long as the narrative does not turn again.The 4H 200-period MA could provide an interesting entry point (0.70170).Levels of interest for AUD/USD:Resistance Levels0.7080 rebound highs2023 Highs from 0.71 to 0.7150 Resistance0.71867 March highsJune 2022 Extremes 0.72 to 0.7230Support Levels4H 200-period MA - 0.701700.6970 - 0.70 Major Pivot0.69 to 0.6935 Early Feb Support0.68340 War lowsMicro-support 0.6850 (+/- 30 pips)October 2024 Mini-support 0.6750 (+/- 100 pips)EUR/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels EUR/USD 4H Chart, April 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView EUR/USD has officially broken its 1.14 to 1.16 War consolidation zone, and will look to confirm the breakout.Retesting and rejecting the Major Pivot zone would guarantee a stronger phase ahead for the most popular FX pair.Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:Resistance Levels1.17 to 1.1720 March ResistanceRebound highs 1.17213Resistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)1.1830 June 2025 highsSep 2021 Highs – Resistance 1.19 to 1.1950 ZoneSupport LevelsMajor Pivot 1.16250 to 1.163501.1540 to 1.1570 War Support1.1475 to 1.15 November SupportWar lows 1.1410Safe Trades and keep a close eye on Ceasefire news!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (08/04/2026): Following news of a ceasefire agreed between the US and Iran, join Nick and podcast host Jonny Hart in discussing the reaction from commodity, FX and equity markets. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks explode after the US-Iran ceasefireEscalation there was not, and the latest TACO helped to push US Equities to erase most of their war lossesExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 The US-Iran Ceasefire is now official, and Stock Market bulls are back in vengeance.Markets have pursued their massive U-turn after what could have been a disastrous geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, which turned out to just be a gigantic TACO.With the official announcement of a two-week ceasefire, the war premium that heavily discounted Stocks over the last month has suddenly vanished. Market flows have completely reversed, erasing close to 50% of their war-induced moves across major Indexes and the FX space.Global equities are wiping out 28 days of severe corrections in the span of a few sessions (with the largest advance today), leading to what looks like a year's worth of gains packed into one massive relief rally. The Nasdaq topped over 3%, dragging its peers higher in a display of pure market ecstasy. Meanwhile, the US Dollar took a massive hit, giving up a large chunk of its safe-haven gains as risk appetite exploded and plummeting energy prices weighed heavily on the currency. Oil and Dow Jones Inverted correlation. Source: TradingView – April 8, 2026 While the equity side is partying, the commodity space is tumbling. After a gigantic 20% tumble right on the news, WTI Crude Oil reached a daily bottom around $92 and has started to slowly creep higher.Traders are now digesting the fact that this deal, while incredibly welcome, currently only lasts for 14 days. Smart money is actively looking for further clarity and official guidelines regarding the terms of the US-Iran deal to see if this temporary breather can actually translate into a lasting, long-term peace agreement. Until the Strait of Hormuz is fully clear, Oil will remain the ultimate barometer for true de-escalation.After all, the Market has welcomed what seems to be a definite change, so let’s get ready for what's next by looking at the intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Discover:Wall Street in ecstasy! It's almost like nothing happened – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateCeasefire Crash: Oil tumbles 15% as US-Iran deal unwinds global 'fear trade'Gold (XAU/USD) stalls at critical $4900/oz resistance as bear signal flashesCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (12:44 PM ET) – Source: TradingView – April 8, 2026 The daily Market action is remarkable, with gigantic gains across the entire Market, with a few victims in the more defensive sectors such as Utilities and Communications, which remained bid throughout the entire war (as rotations and fundamentals helped their outperformance).The largest gains are seen in Producer manufacturing, with gains spanning from 3% to 10% among the largest names, and Tech is of course loving the turn towards higher beta.At the other side of the performance spectrum, Energy stocks are getting battered (not surprising with the latest 17% drop in WTI.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – April 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones has offered a remarkable run, indeed exploding above the 47,000 level as previewed in our past day's mid-session review, but is now stalling at the 48,000 Pivotal Resistance.Any break above 48,000 would put back bulls in long-term advantage, however, they will first have to breach back above the morning highs.With the current 4H doji, traders are clearly looking for further clarity before moving their pieces further – Look for breakouts above (48,088) or below (47,620) for momentum plays.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsPivotal Resistance at 48,000Mini-resistance 48,300Mini-resistance 2 48,700Major Resistance – 49,000 to 49,200Support LevelsMajor Pivot 47,400 to 47,600War Resistance now Key Support 47,000 +/- 100 Points (Bearish below)March 8 War lows Resistance now Support 46,30045,700 to 45,900 August SupportJanuary 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – April 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView A similar move has naturally occurred in the Nasdaq, easily extending back towards the 25,000 resistance but is now facing a significant test.Bulls will have to breach the Major psychological resistance in order to mark their higher potential for continuation towards their all-time highs.Reversing from there would point back towards 24,460 (4H 200-MA).Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsKey Resistance 25,000 to 25,250 25,400 to 25,500 Feb Range resistanceMajor resistance 25,700 to 25,850 Support Levels24,450 to 24,550 PivotFeb Range Support 24,150 to 24,200 Major 2026 Pivotal Support 23,800 to 24,000August 2025 Support 23,500 to 23,650Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – April 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 has exploded to levels not seen since March 11, and now testing a Pivotal Resistance level, similarly as other Indexes.Failing to break the morning peak (6,815) would point to a retest of the 4H 200-period MA around 6,700, similarly as the setup seen in Nasdaq.Breaking 6,690 to the downside however would point to 6,550 (which would require further analysis).S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsPivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800 Early March Resistance 6,820 to 6,840Key Resistance Zone 6,880 to 6,900 Support Levels6,680 to 6,700 Pivot (4H 200-period MA)6,580 to 6,610 Support4H 50-period MA 6,5506,490 to 6,520 October lows 6,300 psychological level (War lows)Safe Trades and a Successful Week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

A two-week US-Iran ceasefire was reached, immediately unwinding the "fear trade" that had been building in global marketsOil prices tumbled dramatically, with US Crude (WTI) falling approximately 15%, easing concerns about "War Inflation".The ceasefire is viewed as only a tactical pause; traders are cautioned to remain vigilant as geopolitical headlines could quickly turn sentiment.Most Read: 10 Hours to $150 Oil? The looming deadline threatening the Strait of HormuzAfter weeks of trading on the edge of a precipice, global markets have finally caught a break. In what can only be described as a classic "Trumpian" 11th-hour maneuver, a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran has been reached, just hours before a deadline that threatened to set the Middle East and global energy markets ablaze.The relief across trading floors this Wednesday morning is palpable. For weeks, we’ve watched the Strait of Hormuz effectively become a no-go zone, choking off 20% of the world’s energy supply and sending volatility into overdrive. But with the announcement of Iran’s “workable 10-point plan,” the "fear trade" is unwinding as quickly as it built up.Market Reaction: Crude Crumbles, Risk-On Returns The most dramatic moves, unsurprisingly, are in the energy pits. Oil prices, which had been flirting with disastrous levels, have seen a massive flush-out. U.S. Crude (WTI) futures tumbled roughly 15%, sliding back under the psychological $100 handle to trade around $96.30. Brent Crude followed suit, dropping 13% to the $94.70 mark.From a technical perspective, this is a massive relief valve for global inflationary pressures. We’ve been discussing the "War Inflation" theme for weeks; this de-escalation provides a much-needed cooling period.Equities and FX are also seeing a "relief rally":Asia-Pacific: The Nikkei jumped 5%, while South Korea’s KOSPI surged 6%, even triggering a brief volatility halt.S&P 500 & Europe: Futures are pointing to a gap up, with European STOXX 50 futures leaping over 5%.The Dollar Index (DXY): The "safe-haven of choice" during the tumult has been knocked back to 98.83, a one-month low.Gold (XAU/USD): Interestingly, Gold remains resilient, climbing 2.5% to $4,820. This suggests that while the immediate "shooting war" fears are fading, investors aren't ready to completely abandon hedges just yet and the hopes that inflationary pressure may prove short-lived remains in place for now..The Outlook: A Two-Week Window of Opportunity The "Iran 10-point plan" is being viewed as a workable framework for longer-term stability, but we must remain cautious. This is a two-week ceasefire, a tactical pause rather than a permanent peace.Iran's 10-point plan includes the following terms:Commitment to non-aggressionIran’s control over the Strait of HormuzAcceptance of Iran's uranium enrichmentLifting of all primary sanctionsLifting of all secondary sanctionsTermination of all UN Security Council resolutionsTermination of all Board of Governors resolutionsPaying compensation to IranWithdrawal of US combat forces from the regionCessation of war on all fronts, including in LebanonTrump says this plan is "a workable basis."Part of the ceasefire plan allows Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, per CNN.A regional official said this money would be used for the reconstruction of Iran. Source: TruthSocial, X For the day ahead, keep an eye on:Supply Chain Normalization: Markets will be looking for physical confirmation that tankers are moving through the Strait of Hormuz without incident.Dollar Weakness: If the DXY continues to slide, it could provide further tailwinds for the AUD and EUR, which have already seen significant bounces this morning.Chart of the day - WTI Oil The H4 chart for WTI illustrates a "liquidation candle," with price plummeting nearly 15% following the US-Iran ceasefire. The vertical drop saw oil slice through the 100-period SMA (purple) and psychological support at $100.00 with ease, signaling a massive shift in sentiment.Currently, WTI is searching for a floor near the $96.30 mark. The RSI (14) has dipped sharply to 33.5, hovering just above oversold territory, which suggests the initial panic selling may be slowing. However, with price now trading well below the 100 SMA, the immediate bias remains bearish.Key Levels to Watch:Support: If the slide continues, the 200-period SMA (yellow) near $88.00 and the horizontal support at $90.00 are the next major targets.Resistance: Any relief bounce faces a stiff hurdle at the $98.97 (100 SMA) and the previous breakdown point at $100.00.WTI US Oil Four-Hour Chart, April 8, 2026 Source: TradingView To conclude, markets have moved from the "brink" to the "bench." The ceasefire buys time, and for now, sentiment is king. Traders should enjoy the relief rally but keep their protective stops tight, geopolitical headlines can still turn the tide in minutesFollow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 7 After streaks of rebounds in Global Assets, a reality check came to sap the Market mood.Traders were seemingly avoiding the narrative of the soon expiring key US deadline for a major escalation toward Civilian infrastructure. The session started on accelerating concerns as the clock ticks ahead of the 8 PM mark, but some rumours of a potential deadline extension helped to soothe Market sentiment.As the headlines came by, Stock markets erased their large drops, but with this deadline extension not having been confirmed by any parties, it remains more fantasy than fact until the world receives better news.Pakistan's Prime Minister Sharif, mediator for the ongoing US-Iran indirect talks, officially pleaded for the deadline extension a few hours ago, saying that talks were slowly but surely progressing.The request for a two week deadline is a consequent one, so it will be interesting to see what the US President has to say – It's about 4 hours to a major potential escalation in the war. Even the White House speakers did not know what Trump would ultimately decide.Flash News: Iran is reportedly positively considering a Pakistani-led two week ceasefire – To be taken with a pinch of salt as the US would still have to agree.What is sure however is that heavy artillery is heading into the Middle East ahead of tonight's buzzer.Crude Oil prices had been slowly rising since the beginning of the week, now remaining much closer to $115 as Physical tightness keeps gripping Buyers, now 6 weeks into the conflict provoking heavy disruptions in global deliveries.Ahead of the key deadline, Markets are getting ready for major binary risk, with either a deal being reached, leading to large rallies in global assets (drops in USD and Oil), or the effective contrary – In such environment, it is essential to keep your risk in control!A deadline extension would leave rangebound Markets as traders could lose patience. Read More:NZD/USD tests major 0.57 support ahead of RBNZ meeting – FX Technical LevelsBears take the advantage but Trump saves the day – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook10 Hours to $150 Oil? The looming deadline threatening the Strait of HormuzStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – April 7, 2026 Large recoveries have occurred around all sectors since the easing in narrative, leading to major rallies in US Indexes around the close.Apple notably erased half of its prior 4.50% fall and some Mag 7s actually turned positive as Markets started to price in another TACO. Difficult to say how this will end.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, April 7, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today's risk-off session took a consequent turn in the final hour of trading as traders progressively start to price in an actual truce ahead of the 8 PM deadline.Oil is tumbling back around $113 as we speak and other risk-assets are exploding higher towards the close – Bulls will hope that somebody know something, because this could be catastrophic in the absence of an actual deal.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, April 7, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs The Aussie dollar is the main benefactor of the recent ease in narrative, profiting from rebounds in commodities and the proper turn in momentum.The US Dollar and New Zealand Dollar will be sharing the center stage in the next 24 hours as Markets prepare heavy catalysts for their movements – The Deadline for the USD, and the RBNZ for the latter (don't forget to check out our preview for the meeting!)A look at Economic data releasing over tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Expect a large repricing in all Markets in coming hours with huge developments approaching for the US Dollar.In terms of events, don't forget this evening's RBNZ Meeting, and the Trump Deadline.The overnight session will be huge for the Euro, with inflation data and retails sales releasing for the Eurozone – If it combines with a proper deal, EUR/USD could shift higher.As always, keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades and a Successful Week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

NZD/USD has been thrashed since the start of the US-Iran war, amid heavy concerns about energy supply in the Land of the Kiwi.At the beginning of 2026, the New Zealand Dollar was on a powerful run. Traders priced higher odds for rate hikes, while most other Central Banks were priced for pauses and cuts. Since then, pricing has dramatically shifted.Numerous policymakers now hint at incoming rate hikes to diminish the inflationary impact of 60% rises in Oil prices.Having lost some relative strength, the new Governor Anna Breman failed to forecast a significant hawkish turn that had been anticipated by Market participants earlier in the year – You can access her recent Speech right here.Having missed its Q4 GDP data, released in mid-March, traders quickly began pricing out any signs of heating in the NZ economy.Combine these factors with a gigantic rise in the Petrodollar since March, and traders got exactly what they needed to not only take profits on previous bullish views but also reverse them into a bearish trend – the major pair is down 4.75% since.The upcoming meeting is strongly priced for a pause (about 90% odds).However, traders have priced in 60 basis points of hikes for the rest of the year.Given the turn in fundamentals and upcoming event, the drops in NZD/USD might just be over.Traders will focus on New Zealand macro data and especially the Royal Bank's inflation outlook for the next meeting (May 27, 2026).Combine high odds of more hawkish communications with daily bullish divergences (see below), and the NZD/USD could be poised for a decent upside reversal – The rest will be to see if it leads to a proper uptrend.To prepare for the upcoming key RBNZ meeting this evening, it is appropriate to conduct a multi-timeframe analysis of NZD/USD and assess potential scenarios. Discover:Bears take the advantage but Trump saves the day – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook10 Hours to $150 Oil? The looming deadline threatening the Strait of HormuzMarkets Today: Oil retreats, Gold rises as cautious tone dominates, Trump deadline now in focusNZD/USD Multi-Timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart NZD/USD Daily Chart – Source: TradingView. April 7, 2026 The Kiwi Dollar has entered a significant downtrend since beginning March, easing from 0.60 right below 0.57.Subject to heavy profit taking from its mid-January gigantic rise, the selloff accelerated as concerns for antipodean crude delivery kept looming on the NZD buying power.The conflict is nearing an important turning point; A de-escalation deadline is about to expire, so if the situation worsens, the outlook can be quite cloudy – To help yourself to spot a direction, it can be quite essential to look at the Dollar Index (DXY), remaining close to 100.00. Rejecting its highs will help NZD/USD to rebound.If de-escalation occurs, NZD/USD is poised for a consequent reversal, particularly as the RBNZ is expected to tighten the screws for a potential future hike – Combine this with prices reaching the bottom of its main downward channel, and technicals are also corroborating this view.Be careful as Monetary Policy meetings can be quite unpredictable, hence the largest traders will await for the decision to move their pawns.Let's take a closer look to spot levels of interest for the ongoing correction.4H Chart and Technical Levels NZD/USD 4H Chart – Source: TradingView. April 7, 2026 The immediate action is still indecisive, as seen with the RSI hanging around the neutral zone.To tilt the scales however, the recent dip below 0.57 could not hold, hence bulls could be getting the upper hand in coming times. This will need to be confirmed after the RBNZ meeting (tonight) and particularly after a break of the 4H 50-period MA (0.57275).Trading Levels for NZD/USD:Resistance Levels4H 50-period MA (0.57275)0.5770 to 0.5790 Major Momentum Pivot (channel highs)0.5850 December High Pivotal Resistance0.5885 to 0.59 Minor resistanceSeptember 2025 Pivot area 0.60 to 0.60150Support LevelsMain Support 0.57 (+/- 150 pips) – testingWar lows 0.56825Minor Support 0.5650January 2025 Support 0.561H Chart NZD/USD 1H Chart – Source: TradingView. April 7, 2026 Looking even closer to the 1H timeframe, the Major FX pair marks heavy indecision as traders await the key fundamental events to make their moves.Above 0.57275, bulls take the upper hand which would point to 0.58850 (Channel highs)Below 0.5690, bears retake control and point to further selling acceleration.Safe Trades and good luck for the upcoming meeting!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Discover our Weekly Market Outlook, exploring themes and events that forged financial flows throughout the week.Markets conclude a very volatile week, with hopes for peace going back and forth and sentiment losing its headGet ready for next week's action by exploring upcoming events across global Markets.Week in review – A sentiment rollercoaster as Markets price in peak conflict What a rollercoaster week. It began with soaring optimism and ended with a brutal geopolitical reality check, capped off by a blockbuster jobs report dropped into an empty market.The Early-Week Melt-UpAs March closed and April began, risk assets caught a massive bid. Investors rushed to buy the dip amid widespread speculation that the US-Iran war was nearing a diplomatic resolution.Stocks exploded higher, the US Dollar formed a double top (which then failed), and oil prices corrected sharply as the war premium appeared to evaporate.The April Fool’s FakeoutUnfortunately, this optimism turned out to be a cruel April Fool's fakeout. By Thursday, the narrative had violently reversed. A hawkish White House address from President Trump completely derailed hopes for peace, reawakening fears of a prolonged conflict and potential ground operations.Energy markets took the brunt of the panic.WTI Crude exploded by 14% overnight, flashing up to $114 per barrel before settling back above $110.The stock market faced severe intraday chaos, gapping significantly lower at the open as algorithms dumped risk, though frantic short-covering later helped major benchmarks finish relatively unchanged. Precious metals also experienced wild volatility as traders scrambled to re-price the escalating conflict. WTI 4H Chart – April 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView The week concluded with a curveball, and luckily no one is there to trade it.The March Non-Farm Payrolls report, released on Good Friday, showed the labor market roaring back to life.Unemployment dropped to 4.3%, private payrolls surged by an unexpected 186K, and wage growth cooled to +0.2% month-over-month. The report cements the Federal Reserve’s holding stance – Don't expect to see cuts anytime soon.Stock Markets are closed for the holiday and futures stuck in a highly illiquid, abbreviated session leaving Wall Street was left paralyzed.Traders are now forced to sit on their hands over a long weekend, balancing robust domestic economic data against the looming threat of military escalation in the Middle East – Watching the highlights of this weekend's action will be mandatory to understand the action next week.Expect fierce repositioning and wild gaps when the bell finally rings on Monday morning – But real volumes will only return on Tuesday (as the largest players are off for the Easter long-weekend\.Weekly Performance across Asset Classes Weekly Asset Performance – April 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView This week's action was nothing short of chaotic, with up-and-down swings across virtually all asset classes, leaving a sense of range-bound trajectories as long as clarity doesn't return.This could replace the prior large downtrends in Metals and Stocks, contingent on the situation not worsening or suddenly improving.WTI remains the asset to watch to assess the general Market mood – one thing to keep in mind is that there has been some progress this week, but more will be needed for the positive mood to remain. Discover:USD/JPY under pressure as markets price in a BoJ rate hikeNon-Farm Payrolls for March large beat on expectations! Markets closed for Good FridayCrude Oil (WTI & Brent) keeps playing tricks on Markets 32 days into the Iran WarThe Week Ahead – Major Inflation data coming up for the US and EU Traders will have to get ready for an intense week, with not only macroeconomic data which should start to reflect the first impacts of the war, but also a more erratic Market behavior regarding the war, which seems to be reaching its most confusing stage.Asia Pacific Markets – RBNZ Rate Decision Next week's RBNZ Decision meeting will be the main event for APAC Markets, but it could also largely be a non-event, currently priced in at 90% for no change (the other 10% is a small premium for a hike).Communications for upcoming rate hikes will be closely watched, so keep that in mind as it may reshape the path for the NZD.For the rest, a few mid-tier releases for Australia and Japan including PMIs for the former, and trade data for the latter.The Chinese Inflation report could also be a mover for the AUD – with inflation recently bouncing higher, so policymakers will want to see this continue..Europe and UK Markets – German CPI and Eurozone PPI This week was big for UK data but next week will be absent of any catalyst for the GBP.The Euro will however be at the center stage, with the first inflation releases that should contain influences from War with Retail Sales and PPI for the Eurozone on Wednesday, and the German CPI on Friday.Any large beat in inflation could warrant a safety hike from the ECB at the next meeting! (Currently priced at about 60%).North American Markets – A heavy week The US will grab the spotlight again, with high-tier releases spanning across the entire coming week.Monday will welcome the ISM Services PMI, an interesting release as Services have started to cool down from ever-higher levels (cooler data there will be a sign of an economic turn).The Minutes from the Mid-March FOMC meeting will also be released on Wednesday (and they have finally become a bit more interesting; look for communications to see what the Fed is watching for decision-making).Thursday will see the release of Core PCE, expected at 3% once again and hopefully not much higher. If it combines with another huge beat in CPI on Friday (headline expected at 0.9% !!! – Huge impact from rises in Oil prices), hikes could really be back on the table, and that would not be good news for the US Market.Participants will also be looking closely at the Core release to see how Oil inflation spreads to other products.For Canada, Tuesday will see the release of the Ivey PMI data (a mover for the Loonie) and the CA Employment report for Friday (that goes without saying). Keep a close eye on geopolitical developments, particularly those regarding a potential ground invasion, as they will be the final piece of the puzzle for Market sentiment and Oil prices.Next Week's High Tier Economic Events For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only) Safe Trades and enjoy your long weekend! Happy Easter!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets are pricing in roughly a 70% chance of a Bank of Japan rate hike this month, but for USD/JPY the key issue is not only the decision itself, but also how clearly it is communicated.If the BoJ signals and delivers a hike, the yen could strengthen and USD/JPY may move lower, especially if investors start to see the move as part of a broader tightening cycle.The biggest risk would be a no-hike scenario despite elevated expectations, as that could trigger a sharp repricing, weaken the yen, push USD/JPY higher, and bring the 160 level back into focus. Markets are increasingly leaning toward the view that the Bank of Japan may deliver another rate hike this month. But the issue is no longer just whether the move happens. For FX markets, and especially for USD/JPY, the bigger question is how the BoJ prepares investors for it.The market is pricing in both a move and a messageThe market is now more clearly assuming that the Bank of Japan could opt for another interest rate hike this month, with current pricing implying roughly a 70% probability of such a move. In practice, however, the focus is no longer solely on the decision itself, but also on the way it is communicated. That communication could prove decisive for currency market volatility in the coming weeks, particularly for USD/JPY. Probability of an interest rate hike in Japan, source: Bloomberg The BoJ is in a demanding position. On the one hand, policymakers continue to point to uncertainty linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could in theory justify a cautious stance. On the other hand, incoming data and the tone of recent remarks have done little to cool expectations. If anything, they have strengthened the view that the conditions for further monetary tightening are gradually falling into place.Inflation and rate signals keep expectations elevatedFresh readings on core inflation, the output gap, and the natural rate of interest all fit into the argument for higher rates. At the same time, the March Summary of Opinions following the BoJ meeting was also interpreted as a sign that policymakers remain open to further action. Taken together, these signals have kept the market firmly focused on the possibility of another move.The most likely scenario is that the Bank of Japan will try to prepare the market for a rate hike rather than allow investors to be caught off guard. That matters especially in light of the experience of July 2024, when less-than-clear communication triggered meaningful market turbulence. Since then, the BoJ has tried to reduce the risk of sudden investor reactions.The lesson from July 2024 still shapes expectationsAgainst that backdrop, the lack of any serious attempt to push back against current market pricing may itself be seen as an indirect confirmation that a hike is drawing closer. Even though the calendar of official appearances offers only limited formal opportunities to shape expectations, markets will pay close attention to every public signal.Particular attention will be paid to Governor Kazuo Ueda’s speech, the BoJ branch managers’ meeting, the messaging after the G20 gathering, and parliamentary appearances. In the current environment, even a subtle shift in tone could have a significant impact on yen positioning and on USD/JPY.A well-signaled hike could put USD/JPY under pressureIf the BoJ clearly signals that it is ready to raise rates and then follows through, USD/JPY will likely face downward pressure. Such an outcome would support the yen, as it would mark another step away from Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy and partially narrow the interest rate gap between Japan and the United States.The more decisive the tone from BoJ officials, and the more strongly markets begin to price in additional moves over the coming months, the stronger the yen’s appreciation could be. In that sense, the market reaction would not depend only on the hike itself, but also on whether investors view it as part of a broader tightening cycle. Daily timeframe of USDJPY, source: TradingView That distinction is critical for USD/JPY. If the Bank of Japan delivers a hike but simultaneously stresses that the move is a one-off adjustment and remains heavily dependent on incoming data, the yen’s reaction may be limited. In that scenario, the initial drop in USD/JPY could quickly lose momentum, especially if US Treasury yields remain elevated and the Federal Reserve offers no clear signal that policy easing is approaching.No hike would be the bigger shock for marketsThe greatest market risk would emerge in the opposite scenario, namely if the BoJ leaves rates unchanged despite high investor expectations. Such an outcome could trigger a sharp reassessment of existing positions, leading to yen weakness and a renewed rise in USD/JPY. The move could be significant because markets would need to rapidly unwind positions built around further monetary tightening. A decision to stay on hold despite strong pricing for a hike could also weigh more broadly on global sentiment, especially if it is interpreted as a sign that the BoJ remains concerned about the fragility of the domestic recovery or about external risks. In that case, any move beyond 160 JPY per USD could once again bring the risk of currency intervention back into focus. That threshold would likely attract much closer attention from both investors and Japanese authorities.Silence from the BoJ may become a signal in itselfAs a result, the coming days may matter more than usual because silence from the Bank of Japan could itself become a form of communication. If the central bank does not actively push back against expectations of a hike, investors may interpret that as a green light for further yen strength.For USD/JPY, that means growing sensitivity to every signal coming from Tokyo. The more likely a hike becomes, and the better it is prepared from a communication standpoint, the greater the downside risk for the pair. By contrast, any hint of caution or any sign that the decision may be pushed further out could quickly restore upward pressure on USD/JPY, especially if oil prices continue to rise while the US dollar remains strong. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

WTI and Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis with key levels ahead of the long Easter weekendCrude Oil is once again in the center stage after yesterday's Trump addressVolatility will remain as long as Oil does not correct below $100 President Trump has just finished speaking in yet another public address, boasting that the ongoing conflict is so efficient and revolutionary, and comparing the long-lasting historical conflicts in the United States with the current advancement in objectives.But Markets don't care anymore. What they want to see is a proper solution for the Strait of Hormuz.Despite strong reactions to his speeches during the first days of the War, traders and algorithms have progressively stopped reacting to any overly optimistic announcement from the Administration. As a matter of fact, reactions to them are now doing the exact opposite.After his speech at the White House yesterday, Global Assets began to tumble from a sweep higher in Energy commodities – Crude prices rose in a flash from $100 to $114 (WTI). While Participants were becoming more hopeful that the conflict would end within the early-announced deadlines (5 weeks, then April 6), a more aggressive tone led to a Market-shaking explosion, as the party quickly finished and left a general hangover.Combine the worsening tone with high-tier catalysts ahead, like tomorrow's Non-Farm Payrolls (check our preview!), closed Stock Markets (only Futures will be open until 1:30 PM ET), and the potential for an escalation, including a ground invasion over the long weekend, and that was enough of a hit to blow up the tires from the bull-train.Talk won't be enough to soothe Markets in the long term – Oil is what Smart Money is looking to move their chess pieces in this gigantic geopolitical puzzle.Hence, let's dive right into an intraday outlook for both WTI and Brent Oil, highlighting their technical levels and outlining scenarios for their breakouts or breakdowns. Discover:Dow Jones & US Stock Market NFP levels: Wall Street scrambles for impossible certainty after the April Fool's fakeoutNFP Preview: Can the labor market withstand the "Stagflation" Storm? Implications for the DXY & Dow JonesThe April's Fool joke is over for Markets – A look around assets in the morning chaosCrude Oil Market Check and Technical Levels ahead of the Long WeekendWTI 4H Chart WTI Oil 4H Chart – April 2, 2026. Source: TradingView WTI has indeed reached concerning levels after yesterday's address, the second highest since the beginning of the conflict, bouncing on the 4H 50-period Moving Average.Evolving in two different bull channels, the larger one is less reactive but more concerning, pointing to the potential of another top at $120 if bears fail to correct prices.The second bull channel, of smaller scale, would see a potential top having already been formed, and would see its bottom at $100 – RSI is forming a bearish divergence which could prompt this smaller channel to hold.As long as WTI remains above $100, investors won't be able to generate much progress in sentiment. Tomorrow's Non-Farm Payrolls shouldn't have much effect on Oil but the general weekend risk will – Hence, traders will be listening closely to the advancement of the War.WTI Technical Levels:Resistance LevelsDaily highs $113.50 to $114.50 (small channel top)2022 and Monday highs $117 to $120 (larger channel top)Ukraine War Spike $120 to $124Support Levels$106 to $108 June 2022 Pivot$98 to $100 Momentum Support & 4H 50-period MA (bearish below)Pivotal Support $93.00 to $95$82.80 to $84 Key SupportWar flows Pivot $65.00 to $66.00Brent 4H Chart Brent Oil 4H Chart – April 2, 2026. Source: TradingView Brent is in a much more contained price action compared to WTI, effectively stuck in a $100 to $116 range since Mid-March.The range is now consolidating in a tighter trading between $102 to $114 which brings more definite breakout levels.Above the mini-range resistance ($111 to $114), expect further Market stressBelow $100 to $102 however, expect sentiment to rebound swiftlyThe worst case scenario is avoided in Markets as long as Brent does not break the War spike at $120 – After this, expect a catastrophic price action and rate hikes pricing to continue.Brent Technical Levels:Resistance LevelsRange Resistance $111 to $114War Highs $117 to $120Ukraine War Spike $130 to $135Support Levels$100 - $102 End-March and Range SupportEnd-March minor Support $95 to $97$88 - $92 March 10 Bounce and 200-MA$80 - $82 Key War SupportPre-War Gap $75Keep track of the headlines and watch out for large gaps and sweeps in coming periods (with many players absent for the Easter long weekend).Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks rebound slightly with President Trump still attempting to calm MarketsOil prices are still playing tricks on broader sentiment, with the conflict now entering its fifth weekExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Certainty is a fool's errand in recent market dynamics.The most seasoned traders would even admit that trading has never been about certainty. Still, more about careful planning and risk-taking – the former part is quite a daunting task with fundamentals changing by the minute.The latter, however, is where traders can extract alpha by controlling their bias, sizing, and jumping ship with every market-changing headline.Investors are looking for a dip to buy to profit from a real turn in the War. Still, despite better hopes for conflict resolution in the past week and a half, the overarching theme is one of fragile stability – De-escalation hasn't yet materialized with Iran multiplying attacks, reportedly now directly targeting US companies (including Amazon Web Services servers).On the other hand, US and Israeli attacks on IRGC infrastructures continue; nothing really changed there. But the largest panic component came after President Trump's latest address at the White House yesterday, where he U-turned on his prior softer tone.And that turn wasn't welcomed by broader assets, which all tumbled, including Stock Markets and Futures around the globe, right as his speech started.He did not mention a direct ground operation. Still, the Pentagon has been preparing for weeks of limited ground operation, which corroborates the deployment of Marines to the Middle East throughout last week.That doesn't bode well for any hopes of de-escalation.Once again, the only real element that traders should watch is Oil and its price movements. Before hoping for the best, WTI would have to remain below $100 on a daily close, and a weekly close would be even better.In any case, market volatility has been fragile, as volumes are lower amid the Passover and Easter holidays approaching, compounded by tomorrow's NFP release (preview incoming). After dumping during overnight futures trading, Stock Markets gapped lower at the open but have corrected most of the move as frantic algorithms and traders rush to close positions ahead of major risk events ahead, not even counting the long-weekend!To gauge today’s market direction, let’s examine the intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Discover:The April's Fool joke is over for Markets – A look around assets in the morning chaosEuro area inflation rises on energy shock, core trends stay limitedMarkets Today: Oil surges 8% & stocks retreat as Trump keeps investors guessing, FED speakers & NFP aheadCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (12:12 PM ET) – Source: TradingView – April 2, 2026 After consecutive positive session, the picture has changed quite drastically – Now mostly red, only a few smaller names are in the green.Tesla is leading Mega Caps lower as Elon Musk officially filed the SpaceX IPO, expected to be the most-expensive IPO ever.For the rest, apart from Healthcare tumbling in harmony, the selloff is erratic, pointing at broad Index selling.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – April 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow broke out of its War downtrend, but the current market conditions are more mixed than bullish.Despite a break retest attempt, a full break above 47,000 will be required to push for a more bullish action ahead. Markets will be closed tomorrow, so traders will have to look at Futures to get their guides to the action:A daily close above 47,000 brings back the rebound attemptFalling back below 45,800 however hints at further downside ahead.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsSession highs 46,900Pivotal Resistance 47,000 +/- 100 Points (bullish above)Minor Resistance 47,500 to 47,650Key Resistance at 48,000Support Levels45,700 to 45,900 Momentum PivotJanuary 2025 Highs and War Lows 45,280Channel and Morning lows 44,840Next Minor Support 44,200 to 44,500Major Support 43,500 to 43,750Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – April 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq also erased most of its losses, getting back to a more neutral momentum, but will have to break and close above 24,000 after NFP to confirm chances of a prolonged rebound.24,200 breaking would confirm the bullish momentumFalling back below 23,600 on the other hand puts bears back in controlNasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMajor 2026 range lows 23,800 to 24,00024,200 (bullish above)24,450 to 25,550 resistanceKey Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (Range highs – Long-term Bullish above)Support LevelsAugust 2025 Pivot 23,500 to 23,650 (bearish below)22,900 to 23,000 higher timeframe major support22,600 August 2025 Support ZoneEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – April 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is remaining solidly in its war bear channel, which is the most consistent to keep your eyes on in order to determine if bulls are back in control or not (implying that for now, they still are not).For the Spoose, bulls will want to see a break above 6,600Bears on the other hand will want to maintain the bear channel and see a daily close below 6,500.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,570 to 6,600 Main Pivotal resistance6,680 to 6,700 Mini-resistance6,740 Key intraday resistancePivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800Support Levels6,490 to 6,512 October lows Pivot6,442 Past week dip6,360 to 6,380 Key August 2025 Support6,300 psychological level Channel LowsJanuary 2025 ATH 6,152Safe Trades and Keep track of headlines and Bitcoin over the weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Consensus for the March employment report includes a historically sluggish NFP rebound (+50,000 to +65,000) and sticky Average Hourly Earnings (+0.3% to +0.4%).A "Stagflation Shock" (low jobs growth under 50k plus high wages over +0.5%) is the worst-case scenario for the Dow Jones, as it traps the Fed from cutting rates.Market reactions are split: a bullish NFP beat (>100k) could propel the DXY toward the 100.50 resistance, while a "Goldilocks" outcome (70k–90k) would be cheered by the Dow.Most Read: Q2 2026 US Indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100) Outlook – Resilience or retracement?As the market gears up for the April 3rd Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release, the narrative has shifted significantly. We are no longer just looking at "hot" or "cold" labor data; we are looking at a Federal Reserve caught between a rock and a hard place, balancing a cooling labor market against a geopolitical oil shock that is threatening to reignite inflation.Looking at the labor market picture and the chart below shows that firms were not even willing to to hire before the crisis began. Source: ING, Macrobond Here is my preview of what to expect from the March employment report and how the US Dollar and Dow Jones might react.Following a jarring February print that saw a decline of 92,000 jobs, the consensus for March is looking for a modest recovery. However, with "Operation Epic Fury" in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushing Brent crude back above $100, the Fed’s focus has pivotally shifted from "supporting growth" back to "fighting energy-driven inflation."The numbers to watchHeadline NFP: Consensus sits around +50,000 to +65,000. While a rebound from February’s contraction, this remains a historically sluggish figure.Unemployment Rate: Expected to hold steady or edge up slightly to 4.4% or 4.5%.Average Hourly Earnings (m/m): Forecasted at +0.3% to +0.4%. This is the "danger zone", if wages remain sticky while jobs growth slows, the "Stagflation" narrative will gain serious legs. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Market Implications: The "three-way" split 1. The US Dollar Index (DXY): Testing the CeilingThe DXY has been oscillating within a 95.50–100.50 range, largely buoyed by safe-haven flows.Bullish Scenario (NFP > 100k): A surprise beat would confirm the "war economy's" resilience. Traders would likely price out any remaining 2026 rate cuts, propelling the DXY toward the 100.40–100.50 resistance barrier.Bearish Scenario (NFP < 30k): A significant miss would validate "hard landing" fears. We could see the DXY retreat toward the 98.00 support level as markets bet the Fed will be forced to pivot to support the economy despite the oil shock.2. The Dow Jones (DJIA): Seeking a "Goldilocks" SaveThe Dow has recently endured a "tailspin," including heavy intraday slides as the "AI honeymoon" of early 2026 meets the reality of geopolitical risk.The "Goldilocks" Outcome (70k–90k): Equities would cheer a moderate number. It suggests the economy is cooling enough to justify future easing without signaling a total collapse in consumer demand. Look for a push back toward the 49,000 handle.The Stagflation Shock (Low Jobs + High Wages): This is the worst-case scenario. If payrolls miss (under 50k) but wages jump (+0.5%), the Dow could face a fresh sell-off toward 48,000. This scenario traps the Fed—they can't cut to help the economy because wages and oil are fueling the inflation fire.Technical Outlook & Final Thoughts From a technical perspective, the markets are showing signs of exhaustion. The US Dollar is forming what looks like a triple top near 100.50, while the Dow is desperately clinging to psychological support levels.With most markets closed on Friday for the Easter break, the real "fireworks" may be delayed until the Monday open.Market participants should keep a close eye on the revisions to the February data, if that -92k figure is revised even lower, the "low-hire, low-fire" stabilization narrative might crumble, giving way to a much deeper concern about the health of the American consumer.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, April 2, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) The "North Star" for the Fed is moving. If the NFP provides a hawkish surprise, the "Higher-for-Longer" mantra is back with a vengeance. If it misses, the Fed's 3.50%–3.75% hold might be shorter than they’d like to admit.Stay disciplined, watch your levels, and keep an eye on the headlines.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.