As prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi see exploded volumes on everything from Fed rates to geopolitical conflicts, a recent incident involving the Ukraine war highlights a critical vulnerability in the system.On November 15, a niche market on Polymarket regarding the Russian advance on the town of Myrnohrad exposed the pitfalls of relying on third-party data sources to settle financial contracts.Incredibly, you're able to bet on wars in real-time like they're a football game. Traders were betting on whether Russia would capture Myrnohrad by nightfall and $1.3 million was wagered.The problem in this case is that the bet would be settled by the daily interactive map produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a D.C.-based think tank.Someone realized the vulnerability and this great article from Responsible Statecraft highlights how it worked.The short version is that despite no verification on the ground that Russia had advanced, the ISW map was abruptly edited just before the market closed to show Russia controlling a key intersection. That triggered the payout due to a smart contract and it didn't matter that the following morning, the map was revised.The firm said the edit was unauthorized and subsequently removed a researcher from their staff page. They also made a statement saying the whole sordid practice of betting on wars using its maps was unwelcome."ISW strongly disapproves of such activities... for which we emphatically do not give consent," it said.With regulation from the CFTC currently lagging behind the explosive growth of these platforms, "insider trading" laws in this space remain virtually non-existent, leaving retail traders to navigate the fog of war at their own risk.Be careful if you're betting on something that's extremely unlikely if the arbiter can be manipulated. At the same time, I don't think anything can halt the march of event contracts as traders seem to love them. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

An earthquake shook up the Pacific coast of Japan approximately 130 km NE of Kuji.There is no damage expected but a tsunami warning has been issued. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US dollar is down on most fronts this year but it came after years of gains. The team at Scotiabank says don't get too comfortable with USD longs as the worst is yet to come.In their Focus On 2026 outlook, Scotia’s Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret are sticking to their guns: they see broad USD weakness playing out through 2026 and into 2027.The core thesis here is simple: Divergence.Scotia expects the Fed to cut rates significantly—taking the target rate down to 3% by the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, other major central banks are expected to make few policy changes or even tighten. It's the classic rate differential trade and erodes the two pillars that have held the dollar up for so long: higher relative growth and those juicy yield differentials. We’ve been hearing about the "end of US exceptionalism" for a while, but Scotia thinks the real pain point for the USD hits in Q2/Q3 of 2026 as the US labour market slows down and the Fed stays dovish.The Euro and Yen: The quiet climbersFor the euro, the ECB is expected to leave rates unchanged, which should boost EUR/USD higher. Scotia is targeting a medium-term move into the 1.22-1.24 range (spot at 1.17).For the yen, with the BoJ expected to tighten modestly in 2026, the currency finally gets some love. The forecast sends USDJPY down to 140 by late 2026 and 130 by the end of 2027. (spot at 155.68)The Contrarian Trade: Buy the LoonieIf you’re looking for a non-consensus trade, this is it. The market is overwhelmingly short CAD right now, but Scotia sees a massive reversal incoming.While the Fed is cutting to 3%, Scotia expects the Bank of Canada to actually start hiking rates in the second half of 2026.They see the spread between the Fed and the BoC—which is currently a massive 175 bps—collapsing to just 25 bps by the end of next year. As that compression happens, their forecast puts USDCAD to 1.35 by year-end 2026, dropping to 1.30 by 2027. (spot at 1.3775)Emerging Markets: Caution on the PesoFor the carry traders, the outlook on the Mexican Peso (MXN) is a lot less rosy. Scotiabank is bearish here despite the yield.Why? Banxico is cutting rates just as volatility is picking up. The narrowing spread with the US, combined with trade uncertainty around the CUSMA review, makes the risk-reward look poor. They see USDMXN grinding higher to 19.00 next year and 20.40 by 2027.Scotiabank FX Forecasts at a GlanceHere are the key levels they are watching for the majors by December 2026:EURUSD: 1.21 USDCAD: 1.35 USDJPY: 140 GBPUSD: 1.38 USDMXN: 19.00If Scotia is right, the "higher for longer" US yields trade is dead, and the rotation out of the dollar is the big macro play for 2026. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It's a strong day for Japanese stocks as they ratchet higher to close out the week. The Nikkei 225 is up 1.5% and threatening the December high. It's a quick bounce back after the risk rout in Asia yesterday.The market has been trading sideways for the past six weeks after a sharp rise in October. Notably, there have been a series of higher lows in a sign of steady accumulation, even at the tail end of a great year. The Nikkei is up 27% this year so far and the yen is roughly flat (though it's been volatile). Lately, rising borrowing costs have been causing some angst and it increasingly looks like the Bank of Japan will hike rates on December 19. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Leaked internal benchmarks for GPT-5.2 "Thinking" have been posted by Sam Altman, and quite frankly, the numbers are ridiculous. We aren't talking about incremental gains here. For some reference:AIME 2025: 100.0%. It solved it. This is a big math test and it means that competition math is effectively "completed" for this model.ARC-AGI-2: This is the big one for the AGI purists. It jumped from 17.6% (GPT-5.1) to 52.9%. That is a massive leap in abstract reasoning and generalization—historically the Achilles' heel of LLMs.GDPval (Knowledge Work): This is the metric that matters for the economy. It flew from 38.8% to 70.9%.It's also worth noting that this highlights that scaling and reasoning are both advancing as this is a model that uses maximum reasoning efforts. Lately, it looked like OpenAI got caught with its pants down because Gemini scaled and it worked but this shows that reasoning is doing things that looked impossible.For users, the thinking models aren't that popular because they're slow for every day tasks to replace Google but for innovation, this is huge. What the dual-releases show is that both tracks are still working. Ultimately, there will be a 'best of both' that unlocks something beyond this.This is also big for the economy. GDPval tests well-specified knowledge work tasks spanning 44 occupations.At the moment, this release is being rolled out and we're going to see if the use cases match the numbers. What we aren't seeing is what the lesser models do. This release includes 5.2 Thinking but also GPT‑5.2 Instant and Pro.What OpenAI says:"Overall, GPT‑5.2 brings significant improvements in general intelligence, long-context understanding, agentic tool-calling, and vision—making it better at executing complex, real-world tasks end-to-end than any previous model."That's exciting but this screenshot is also making the rounds: This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

When Mark Carney pulled off an improbable election win this year, he didn't earn a majority in parliament. That means his government could fall at any time, but he came very close.The Liberals won 169 seats, just three short of a 172 seat majority. In early November, Conservative MP Chris d’Entremont crossed the floor to join the Liberals. That got them to 170. Just now, Michael Ma (MP for Markham-Unionville) announced that he is switching from the Conservatives to the Liberals.That gets them to 171, just one seat shy.There are rumors they are courting others and if they get there, that will give Carney enough votes to survive another three years, at minimum. Even without that, now he just needs the support of one other voter to get any legislation passed.This move will also raise the stakes in any future by-elections as that could flip the numbers. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Will make a signing related to AIForget trying to get approval for 50 different statesSacks: Order gives tools to push back on most onerous state regulationsWe are taking steps for a single national standard on AIThe idea of dominance is that AI will be iterative, so the latest generation of AI designs the following one and that also maps to the physical world. I have a hard time believing that it won't be diffuse as the stakes are so high and the information nearly impossible to protect. Moreover, the world can only accept change so quickly.At the same time, there is a limit in real world applications. Once a car learns to drive a car, it's learned. Maybe you can refine it and make it more efficient but in time -- and probably not a long time -- others catch up. Perhaps you could 'dominate' for a time but only if you're essentially giving it away or using some kind of regulator capture that's hard to push across borders.Moreover, I continue to believe that the black swan of this century will be the collapse of the intellectual property system. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US is clearly trying to provoke some kind of conflict, if not a war. Trump wants regime change in Venezuela for some reason. That said, Trump likes to make threats so he could be trying to bluff Maduro into leaving the country.Yesterday, the US seized an oil tanker carrying Venezuelan crude.On Ukraine, Trump said he thought they were 'very close' to a deal. Again, it's hard to take what he says literally and get excited about peace in Ukraine or war in Venezuela. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

After the fireworks from the Australian jobs report yesterday, the schedule for the Friday Asian session (Thursday evening US time) is looking decidedly thin. We are scraping the bottom of the barrel for data, so don't expect too many idiosyncratic catalysts to drive the majors.The action kicks off early in the session at 02:00 GMT with a look at the Australian consumer via the LSEG IPSOS PCSI. While not as closely watched as the Westpac sentiment numbers, it gives us another data point on how the Aussie consumer is holding up under the weight of current rates. The prior read sat at 52.82.Later on, while Tokyo is lunching, we get the final reads on Japanese Industrial Production at 04:30 GMT.Industrial Output (MoM): The preliminary read was 1.4%.Capacity Utilization: Prior read was 2.5%.Unless we see a massive revision here, this is likely to be a non-event for the USD/JPY, which will continue to take its cues from Treasury yields and the broader risk tone.With a calendar this light, watch for month-end flows or profit-taking as traders square up positions ahead of the weekend.Here is the schedule for the session (All times GMT):02:00 GMTAU: LSEG IPSOS PCSI (Dec) — Prior: 52.8204:30 GMTJP: Industrial Production Revised (MoM) (Oct) — Prelim: 1.4%JP: Industrial Production Revised (YoY) (Oct) — Prelim: 1.6%JP: Capacity Utilization (MoM) (Oct) — Prior: 2.5%The central bank and political speaker list is also bare. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Major stock indices end mixed as Dow and S&P hit new records.NASDAQ falls on tech weaknessFederal Reserve announces reappointment of regional PresidentsSilver Skyrockets to Record Highs Over $64; Gold Chases $4,300WH Trump on Fed: More should be done.The US treasury auctioned $22B of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.773%Atlanta Fed GDPNow Upgrade: Q3 Growth Hits 3.6% as Net Exports SurgeFinancial sector strides amid technology slumpDow Jones Technical Analysis after Last Night's FOMC. Bulls Holding.US initial jobless claims 236K versus 220K estimate. US trade deficit narrows to -$52.8BUSD is moving lower the day after the FOMC decision. What are the technicals forecasting?investingLive European FX news wrap: SNB keeps rates unchanged, sounds more optimisticKey Takeaways:USD Weakness: The dollar fell against European majors and the Yen as US yields retreated.Jobless Claims: Initial claims normalized to 236K, confirming last week's drop was a holiday outlier.AUD Volatility: Soft internal jobs data undermined RBA hawkishness, though the pair bounced off key technical support.Commodities: Silver and Gold posted massive gains, while Crude Oil successfully tested critical support from November.USD Closes Mixed as Claims Data Weighs on YieldsThe US Dollar finished the session on the back foot, giving back recent gains against most major counterparts. The greenback struggled to find demand as US Treasury yields softened across the curve, driven by a "normalization" in labor market data.The Closing Scoreboard: The Dollar fell against the defensive and European currencies:CHF: -0.69%EUR: -0.43%JPY: -0.32%CAD: -0.16%GBP: -0.05%However, the greenback managed to hold onto gains against the antipodal currencies:AUD: +0.16%NZD: +0.10%US Jobless Claims: The "Holiday Noise" FadesThe primary catalyst for the dollar's intraday weakness was the release of the weekly US Initial Jobless Claims.Last week, the market was momentarily confused when claims dropped sharply to 191K, well below the 200K psychological level and the 220K estimate. However, analysts warned that the data was heavily distorted by the Thanksgiving holiday seasonality.That caution proved correct today. Claims rebounded to 236K, coming in above the 220K estimate and testing the upper end of the recent 205K–240K range. The "weaker" jobs picture (higher claims) was welcomed by bond bulls, helping to push yields lower and, by extension, weighing on the USD.AUDUSD: Soft Jobs Data Undercuts RBA HawksThe Australian Dollar saw two-way volatility following a domestic jobs report that was weaker than the headline suggested. While the unemployment rate came in at 4.3% (beating the 4.4% expectation), the internal details painted a picture of a softening labor market:Full-time jobs: Plunged by –56.5K (erasing the prior month's +55.3K gain).Participation Rate: Dropped to 66.7% (from 67.0%), which artificially suppressed the unemployment rate.The RBA Impact: This report comes just 24 hours after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock sounded notably hawkish, leading markets to price in a 33% chance of a March rate hike. Today’s data dampens that speculation. The sharp drop in full-time employment suggests the "cooling" the RBA has been waiting for is arriving, likely pushing rate hike expectations off the table.Technical Outlook: Despite the fundamental headwind, the AUDUSD showed resilience. The pair sold off to a low of 0.6627, testing a key swing area defined by the lows between 0.66247 and 0.6635. Buyers stepped in at this support zone, and the price bounced roughly 16 pips off the lows heading into the close.Treasury Yields: The Short End Leads the Way DownUS Treasury yields moved lower on the back of the jobless claims report, with the curve steepening slightly as the short end outperformed.2-Year Yield: 3.525% (–4.0 bps)5-Year Yield: 3.715% (–4.0 bps)10-Year Yield: 4.142% (–2.1 bps)30-Year Yield: 4.793% (–0.2 bps)30-Year Auction Results: The Treasury’s auction of 30-year bonds was solid, earning a grade of "B." While there was no disaster, the auction failed to spark a significant follow-through rally in the long bond, leaving the 30-year yield essentially flat on the day.Commodities & Crypto: Precious Metals ShineCrude Oil Tests Support Crude oil prices remained under pressure, falling $0.65 (–1.12%) to settle at $57.77. Critically, the price tested the major support level from November 25 at $57.10, hitting a low of $57.01 before bouncing. Holding this level is vital for the bulls to prevent a deeper breakdown.Gold & Silver Surge Precious metals were the standout performers of the day, capitalizing on lower yields and a softer dollar:Gold: Rallied sharply by $45.41 (+1.08%) to close at $4,273.Silver: Continued its parabolic run, surging to $63.47. (For a deep dive into the technical breakout on metals, [CLICK HERE]).Bitcoin Consolidates Bitcoin remained relatively quiet amidst the volatility in traditional assets, dipping slightly by $135 (–0.15%) to trade at $91,921, as it consolidates recent gains. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The major U.S. equity indices finished the session mixed, reflecting a sharp divergence between traditional blue-chip strength and renewed anxiety in high-growth technology names. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both closed at fresh record highs, supported by strength in industrials, financials, and defensive sectors. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite ended the day in negative territory as investors continued to rotate out of mega-cap tech amid growing fears of an AI-driven bubble.Tech Sector Under Pressure as AI Concerns Re-EmergeThe primary drag on market sentiment came from Oracle, whose shares plunged 10.83% after the company reported better-than-expected EPS but missed revenue estimates. The real shock, however, was Oracle’s massive increase in capital expenditures, far above Wall Street’s expectations. This raised concerns that companies may be overspending on AI infrastructure at a pace that is not yet matched by revenue growth — a dynamic that has sparked recurring volatility in the sector.Oracle’s sell-off spilled into the broader semiconductor space:Nvidia: –1.53%Micron: –1.99%Intel: –3.11%AMD: Flat on the day after recovering from earlier lossesThese moves reinforced the theme that investors remain unsettled about the durability of AI-related earnings momentum.Record Closes for the Dow, S&P, and Russell 2000Despite the tech weakness, broader market strength carried major indices to impressive milestones:Index Closing LevelsDow Jones Industrial Average: +646.26 points (+1.34%) to 48,704.01 — new all-time highS&P 500: +14.32 points (+0.21%) to 6,901.00 — new all-time highNasdaq Composite: –60.30 points (–0.25%) to 23,593.86Russell 2000 (Small Caps): +30.997 points (+1.21%) to 2,590.60 — new all-time highThe standout was the Dow, which surged more than 600 points as investors favored value and cyclicals over high-growth tech. The Russell 2000 also continued its strong breakout, suggesting improving breadth and greater participation across the equity market.Bottom LineThe market landscape remains highly bifurcated. Blue chips and small caps are thriving, powering major indices to historic highs, while tech megacaps and AI-exposed stocks face increased scrutiny and profit-taking. Investors appear to be rebalancing portfolios toward sectors tied to economic resilience rather than speculative growth. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

This is something of a formality but the Federal Reserve board of governors has input on the regional Presidents. In any case, there was unanimous approval of all of them for five year terms.Now this could have been more contentions if Trump was able to stack the governors, who then could have stacked the regional offices. However that would have created some real drama. In any case, this is one to safely ignore for another five years. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The price of silver is sprinting to yet another record, surging approximately $2.00 (3.40%) on the day. This latest move caps a historic run for the metal, which is now up over 120% year-to-date.Silver’s explosive move to over $64.00 per ounce in 2025 is being driven by a "perfect storm" of five fundamental factors:Chronic Supply Deficit: For the fifth consecutive year, global demand has outpaced supply. Mining output remains flat while above-ground stockpiles have plummeted to critical lows.Explosive Industrial Demand: The "green" revolution is draining physical inventory. New solar panel technologies, EVs, and AI data centers are consuming record amounts of silver for its superior electrical conductivity.Strategic Stockpiling in Asia: China and India have shifted from "just-in-time" buying to aggressive stockpiling. India is importing record volumes, while Chinese industry secures reserves to prevent shortages.The "Gold Effect": With gold breaking $3,000/oz, silver has surged as a more affordable "catch-up" trade and a hard-asset hedge against sticky inflation and new tariffs.Technical Breakout: Smashing through the historic $50 resistance level triggered a wave of speculative and algorithmic buying, creating a self-reinforcing price loop.Silver Technical Analysis: Bulls in Total ControlLooking at the daily chart, the technical structure remains decisively bullish. The buyers established a strong base during the correction in October and November, where price lows held against a key trend line. This gave the market the confidence to push higher.After testing the October high near $54.46 in mid-November, the price broke out on November 28th and raced toward the $60.00 level. Following an initial peak near $59.35, the rally extended above the psychological $60.00 mark on Tuesday.Crucially, the price also shattered the 161.8% Fibonacci extension at $59.97, pouring fuel on the bullish fire. The momentum over the last three days has been relentless:Tuesday Low: $57.61Thursday High: $64.303-Day Move: +$6.70 (+11.63%)Key Levels to Watch: Technically, the price has now breached the 200.0% Fibonacci extension at $63.37. This level now acts as immediate risk support for aggressive traders, with the $60.00 level providing major support for conservative positions. A move below these levels could signal corrective action. On the topside, the market is in "blue sky" territory on any break above today's high of $64.30.Gold Analysis: Breaking Resistance, Eyeing All-Time HighsGold is also enjoying a strong session, currently up $45.50 (1.08%) trading at $4,273.80.While Silver has outperformed in percentage terms this year, Gold’s rally is nothing short of historic. The yellow metal is up $1,650 (62.87%) year-to-date and sits just $110 away from its all-time high of $4,381.48.Fundamental Drivers for Gold:US Debt & Debasement: With US debt passing $38 trillion, investors view Treasuries as increasingly risky, buying gold to hedge against inevitable money printing and currency dilution.Central Bank Buying: Nations like China and India are aggressively swapping US dollars for gold to "sanction-proof" their reserves, creating a massive price floor.The Fed's "Stealth QE": The Federal Reserve continues to cut rates despite sticky inflation, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold vs. bonds.Geopolitics: Ongoing trade wars and conflicts in the Middle East and Europe have built a permanent "fear premium" into the price.Western FOMO: After sitting out the early rally, Western institutional and retail investors have flooded back into Gold ETFs, chasing performance and safety.Gold Technical OutlookTechnically, Gold is breaking out of a consolidation phase. The price is pushing above the recent November and December highs located between $4,243.92 and $4,262.32.Today’s session high reached $4,285.98, confirming the breakout. This move opens the door for a potential run toward the year’s high—and the all-time record—at $4,380.79.Conclusion and Video CommentaryIn the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author ofAttacking Currency Trends) walk through the silver and gold technical landscape, identify the precise risk parameters traders should monitor, and outline the next upside and downside targets that matter most.Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump news today:Administration sanctions Maduro's nephews and 6 ships carrying Venezuelan oilBessent commented that Maduro group in criminal associations are flooding the US with drugs that is poisoning the American peopleMaduro and cronies have a choice: stop the drug trafficking stop the corruption, stop the dictatorship and leave the country.ON Ukraine:The administration continues to talk with both sides.If there is a real chance to a peace agreement, the US will send representatives for talks, meetings would need to be productive.On the Fed:Trump thinks the Fed should do more.On Nvidia H200 chips:Chips will be shipped to approved customers in China. (Nvidia shares are down at $-3.80 or more is 2.06% at $179.99)Trump on TruthSocial said: prices are coming down fast, energy, oil, and gasoline marketing 5 year lows, and the stock market today just it and all-time high. Tariffs are bringing in hundreds of billions of dollars.On China and Japan :Trump has a good relationship with leaders of China and JapanTrump is fighting declining approval ratings although they may be coming after after the dip due to the shutdown. Nevertheless, Trump's approval rating varies by pollster, generally ranging between 36% and 45% as of mid-December 2025.Most major polling averages show his approval rating in the low-to-mid 40s, while disapproval ratings are consistently above 50%.Here is a breakdown of the most recent data from reputable sources:Polling Averages (Aggregated Data)These sources combine multiple polls to smooth out outliers and provide a broader picture of public sentiment.RealClearPolitics (RCP) Average:Approval: 43.9%Disapproval: 52.9%As of December 11, 2025FiveThirtyEight (Silver Bulletin):Approval: 42.4%Disapproval: 54.2%As of December 11, 2025Decision Desk HQ:Approval: 43.1%Disapproval: 52.8%As of December 11, 2025Individual Major PollsIndividual polls can show more variance depending on their methodology (e.g., registered voters vs. all adults).Gallup:Approval: 36%Disapproval: 60%Polling dates: Nov 3–25, 2025Note: Gallup highlighted this as a "new second-term low" for President Trump.Reuters / Ipsos:Approval: 41%Disapproval: 58%Released: Dec 9, 2025Note: This marked a slight increase from a previous low of 38%.Rasmussen Reports:Approval: 45%Disapproval: 52%Released: Dec 10, 2025AP / NORC:Approval: 36%Disapproval: 62%Polling dates: Nov 6–10, 2025 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The US treasury has auctioned off $22Bof 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.773%The WI (when-issued) level at the time of the auction was 4.774%The results of a US Treasury auction act as a real-time "report card" on the market's appetite for US government debt. Because US Treasuries are the risk-free benchmark for the entire global financial system, the results ripple across all asset classes—stocks, currencies, and commodities.Given the auction results, my AUCTION GRADE: BReasons for the B grade. The tails was -0.1 basis points lower than the WI level. Positive. The Bid to cover was on the screws vs the 6 month average. Average.Indrect bidders were higher than the 6 month average. Slight positive for international buyersDIrect bidders were near the 6 month average. AverageDealers were saddled with slightly less than average. Slight positive.Yields are little changed after the completion of the coupon auctions. US Treasury Auction Process: Key ComponentsThe US Treasury auction process determines the yield (interest rate) the government pays on its debt. The market effectively "votes" on the price of US debt through this mechanism.1. The "WI" Level (When-Issued) was 4.774%Definition: "When-Issued" refers to trading that occurs in the time between the announcement of an auction and the actual auction itself.Significance: It serves as the market's "price consensus" or expected yield leading up to the deadline. It anchors the market's expectations.2. The Tail -0.1 basis point vs the 6 month average of 0.3 basis pointsDefinition: The Tail is the difference between the High Yield (the actual yield determined at the auction) and the WI Yield (the expected yield right before the auction closes).Tail = High Yield - WI YieldInterpretation:Positive Tail (Weak Demand): If the auction yields higher than the WI level (e.g., WI was 4.00% but the auction stopped at 4.02%), it indicates that demand was softer than expected. Dealers had to lower prices (raise yields) to sell the entire issue.Stopping Through (Strong Demand): If the auction yields lower than the WI level (e.g., 3.98% vs. 4.00%), it indicates aggressive buying.3. Bid-to-Cover Ratio 2.36X vs the 6 month average of 2.36XDefinition: The total dollar amount of bids received divided by the amount of debt being sold.Significance: This is the primary metric for demand.Higher is better: A ratio of 2.5x means for every $1 of debt offered, $2.50 was bid. Ratios below average suggest weak demand and can spook markets.4. The BiddersThe Treasury breaks down buyers into three categories to show who is buying the debt:Indirect Bidders 65.4% vs the 6 month average of 63.7%Who they are: Foreign central banks, international investors, and some domestic investment managers placing bids through a primary dealer.Significance: Often viewed as a proxy for foreign demand. High indirect participation is generally seen as bullish (strong global confidence in US debt).Direct Bidders 23.5% vs the 6 month average of 23.9%:Who they are: Domestic money managers, insurance companies, hedge funds, and individuals placing bids directly with the Treasury (bypassing dealers).Significance: Represents "real money" domestic demand.Primary Dealers 11.2% vs the 6-month average of 12.5%Who they are: Large banks (e.g., Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan) designated by the NY Fed. They are required to bid in every auction.Significance: They act as the "backstop." They buy whatever supply the Directs and Indirects don't take. A high Dealer award is generally bearish (bad), as it means the banks are stuck holding excess inventory they must now try to sell into the secondary market.Debt Statistics & This Week's Auction DataTotal US Public Debt Outstanding:As of early December 2025, the total public debt outstanding is approximately $38.4 trillion.Treasury Auctions for the Week of December 8, 2025:The Treasury issued the following amounts in the 3, 10, and 30-year maturities this week:What to know about the US Treasury 30-Year Bond AuctionsThe 30-year bond is the longest maturity debt instrument issued by the US government. It acts as a critical benchmark for long-term interest rates, influencing everything from mortgage rates to corporate bond pricing.1. Frequency: When are they auctioned?Monthly Auctions: The US Treasury holds an auction for 30-year bonds every month.The "Quarterly Refunding" Cycle:New Issues (4x per year): New 30-year bonds are issued quarterly in February, May, August, and November. These are brand new securities with a new CUSIP and maturity date.Reopenings (8x per year): In the other eight months (Jan, Mar, Apr, Jun, Jul, Sep, Oct, Dec), the Treasury performs a "reopening." This means they sell more of the bond that was issued in the previous quarter. It has the same CUSIP and interest rate but is sold at the current market price (which may be higher or lower than the original face value).2. Auction Amounts: How much is sold?Current Monthly Pace: As of late 2025, the Treasury typically auctions between $20 billion and $25 billion of 30-year bonds each month.New Issues (Quarterly) are typically slightly larger (e.g., ~$25 billion).Reopenings are typically slightly smaller (e.g., ~$22 billion).Annual Total: This puts the total annual issuance of 30-year debt at approximately $280 billion to $300 billion per year.3. How has the amount changed over time?The size of 30-year bond auctions has increased significantly over the last decade to fund growing federal deficits.2010s: For much of the post-2008 era, 30-year auction sizes were relatively small, often in the $10 billion to $15 billion range per month.Pandemic Era (2020-2021): Auction sizes ramped up dramatically to fund stimulus measures, reaching peaks of roughly $24–27 billion per month.Recent Trends (2024-2025): After a brief period of stabilization, auction sizes have begun creeping up again. The Treasury has had to increase coupon supply across the curve (2s, 5s, 10s, and 30s) to manage the higher interest expense and ongoing fiscal deficit.4. Specifics for This Week (December 2025)Auction Date: Thursday, December 11, 2025.Type: This was a Reopening (of the bond originally issued in November).Amount Auctioned: $22 Billion.Result: The market closely watched this auction to see if investors demanded a higher yield (a "tail") to absorb the supply, given the recent rise in rates. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Freddie Mac is reporting that the 30 year fixed-rate mortgage average rate rose to 6.22% from 6.19% in the prior week. The recent cycle lows going back to October 2022 is at 6.09%.Current Market SnapshotThe housing market continues to navigate a complex environment of fluctuating rates and sticky prices. While the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points yesterday, mortgage rates have moved in the opposite direction this week, highlighting the disconnect that often exists between Fed policy and long-term bond yields.Mortgage Rates: According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.22% this week, up from 6.19% the previous week.Inventory Levels: Housing supply is slowly recovering but remains approximately 13% below pre-pandemic levels. We are seeing regional disparities, with inventory surging in the South and West (rising above pre-pandemic norms in cities like Denver and Austin) while remaining tight in the Northeast.Price Trends: National median list prices are largely flat year-over-year at approximately $424,000. However, about 20% of listings are seeing price cuts, suggesting sellers are having to adjust expectations to meet stretched buyers.The Affordability CrunchAffordability remains the primary headwind for prospective buyers. Despite the Fed's easing cycle, the combination of home prices near record highs and mortgage rates above 6% keeps monthly payments elevated.Delinquencies Outlook: Recent credit reports suggest a modest rise in mortgage delinquencies heading into 2026 as the "affordability squeeze" tests borrower resilience.Buyer Behavior: A new report from Zillow indicates that many buyers are skipping the "rate shopping" phase in a rush to secure homes, potentially costing them significant savings in a volatile rate environment.Chair Powell on Housing: The "Lock-In" Effect and SupplyDuring yesterday’s post-meeting press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed the housing market directly, offering a sobering view on why lower Fed rates haven't immediately fixed the sector's issues.1. The "Lock-In" Effect is Stifling Supply Powell emphasized that the housing market is effectively "frozen" because millions of Americans are holding onto mortgages with rates between 2% and 3%. Even as the Fed cuts rates, current market rates (near 6%) are too high to entice these owners to sell and move, keeping resale inventory artificially low.2. Inflation & Housing Services Powell noted that while the Fed has made progress on inflation, housing services inflation remains sticky. He described the current policy stance as "modestly restrictive," which is helping to cool the economy, but he acknowledged that monetary policy alone cannot fix structural housing supply deficits.3. The Tariff Impact When addressing recent inflation data, Powell attributed much of the current "heat" to tariffs, describing them as a "one-time price increase." However, he warned that if these policy shifts lead to higher costs for construction materials or labor shortages (via immigration changes), it could exacerbate the housing supply shortage further.Realtor.com 2026 Forecast: A Steady Shift Toward BalanceOverview: "Low Gear" RecoveryRealtor.com recently outlined their projections for US housing in 2026. They forecast that the US housing market is expected to shift into a steadier, more balanced state in 2026. While not a boom year, conditions will improve modestly for buyers as affordability pressures ease slightly. The market will remain in "low gear," with sales rising slowly from historical lows but still constrained by high prices and rates.Key Data Projections (2026 vs. 2025)Mortgage Rates: Expected to average 6.3% for the year (down from an average of 6.6% in 2025). This stability helps buyers budget but keeps the "lock-in" effect in play for existing owners.Home Prices: Forecast to rise by a modest 2.2% year-over-year. Crucially, inflation is expected to outpace this growth (~3%), meaning real home prices (inflation-adjusted) will actually decline slightly, slowly improving affordability.Existing-Home Sales: Projected to rise 1.7% to 4.13 million units. This is a small rebound from the 29-year lows seen in 2024-2025.Inventory: For-sale inventory will grow by 8.9%, marking the third straight year of gains, though levels will still remain ~12% below pre-pandemic norms.Rents: Rents are forecast to decline by 1.0% nationally as a robust supply of new multi-family units hits the market.Market Dynamics by GroupFor Buyers: "Negotiating power tilts subtly toward buyers." Affordability will improve as incomes grow faster than home prices, pushing the typical mortgage payment share of income below 30% for the first time since 2022.For Sellers: The market is moving further into "balanced territory." Sellers will face more competition and may need to be flexible on price. Delistings (sellers walking away rather than cutting prices) may continue.For Renters: A "renter's market" is emerging, particularly in the South and West (e.g., Austin, Las Vegas, Atlanta) where supply is surging.Economic BackdropInflation & Wages: Inflation is expected to hover around 3%, but wage growth (3.6%) will outpace it, restoring some consumer purchasing power.Risks: The forecast highlights significant risks, including trade policy/tariffs impacting construction costs and the uncertainty of a Federal Reserve leadership transition when Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026.Conclusion2026 is framed as a year of "slow normalization." It won't be a dramatic return to the frenzied activity of 2020-2021, nor a crash. Instead, it offers a window of stability where inventory creeps up, rates flatten out, and buyers gradually regain some leverage. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Key Takeaways:GDPNow Upgrade: The Atlanta Fed raised its Q3 2025 GDP estimate to 3.6% (up from 3.5%).Trade to the Rescue: A surge in net exports offset weaker government spending and private investment numbers.Fed Optimism: Federal Reserve officials revised their 2026 GDP growth projections sharply higher to 2.3%.Productivity Boom: Chair Powell points to increased productivity as a key tailwind supporting this higher growth trajectory.Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Economy Accelerates to 3.6%The U.S. economy continues to defy slowdown expectations. On December 11, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model ticked its estimate for Q3 2025 real GDP growth up to 3.6%, a modest but meaningful increase from the previous 3.5% reading on December 5.While headline growth is robust, the internal drivers have shifted. According to the latest data from the US Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, domestic demand has softened slightly, but this was more than compensated for by a booming trade balance.The Data Breakdown:Net Exports (The Bullish Driver): The contribution of net exports to GDP was revised upward significantly, jumping from 0.86 percentage points to 1.01 percentage points. This implies that the U.S. is exporting more (or importing less) than previously modeled, acting as a major buffer for the economy.Domestic Investment (The Drag): Real gross private domestic investment growth was revised down to 2.3% (from 3.0%).Government Spending: Real government expenditures growth also saw a downward revision to 1.6% (from 1.7%).Essentially, while businesses and the government pulled back slightly on spending, the external trade sector stepped in to push overall growth higher.Federal Reserve Signals "Stronger for Longer" in 2026The resilience seen in the GDPNow data aligns with the Federal Reserve's updated economic projections released yesterday. In a move that surprised some analysts, Fed members significantly upgraded their outlook for the U.S. economy heading into 2026.The median projection for 2026 GDP growth rose to 2.3%, a sharp upward revision from the 1.8% projected just three months ago in September.Why This Matters: A revision of this magnitude (0.5%) suggests that the Fed no longer sees the current growth spurt as a temporary "sugar high" but rather as a durable trend. It signals that policymakers believe the economy can sustain higher growth rates without necessarily reigniting inflation—a "Goldilocks" scenario for risk assets.Powell’s "Productivity" TailwindDuring yesterday’s press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell provided the narrative backbone for these higher numbers. He explicitly cited increases in productivity as a potential tailwind for growth.When productivity rises—meaning workers produce more output per hour—the economy can grow faster without overheating or driving up wages to inflationary levels. This supports the "soft landing" (or even "no landing") thesis, where the U.S. avoids recession entirely while maintaining robust expansion.Upcoming Key DatesTraders should mark their calendars for the final data releases of the year, which will confirm if this momentum can carry into 2026:Next GDPNow Update: Thursday, December 16.First Q4 2025 Nowcast: Tuesday, December 23. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Key TakeawaysU.S. yields continue to fall after the Fed’s rate cut, reinforcing a dovish market tone and weighing heavily on the USD.EURUSD extends higher, breaking multiple technical resistance levels, including the Oct. 17 swing high and the 61.8% retracement.USD broadly weaker, down against every major currency except AUD; EUR is one of the strongest movers at +0.52% vs USD.Upside targets emerge at the 1.1779–1.1788 swing zone, with risk defined by the 1.17274 breakout level and rising short-term MAs.5-minute trend structure remains bullish, with buyers defending the rising 100- and 200-bar MAs.Fed Cut Sparks Renewed USD Selling as Yields SlideThe Federal Reserve’s 25-bp cut and the market’s dovish interpretation continue to ripple through U.S. fixed-income markets today. Yields across the Treasury curve are extending lower, adding pressure to the USD:2-year: 3.515% (–4.9 bps)5-year: 3.697% (–5.7 bps)10-year: 4.119% (–4.4 bps)30-year: 4.769% (–2.6 bps)With yields falling in unison, the USD is weakening sharply, trading lower against nearly all major currencies. The dollar is higher only against the AUD (+0.10%), while its 0.52% decline vs the EUR makes EURUSD one of the strongest movers of the day.EURUSD Breakout: Technical Structure Turns Decisively BullishToday’s EURUSD price action began with a pullback following yesterday’s sharp Fed-driven breakout. The decline tested last week’s high near 1.1681, where buyers re-entered. That rebound propelled the pair above the 50% midpoint of the September–October range at 1.16929, opening the door for a continuation move.Momentum extended further as EURUSD:Broke the Oct. 17 swing high at 1.17274Cleared the 61.8% retracement at 1.17461Printed a session high at 1.1759, before rotating slightly to 1.1753These breaks confirm strengthening bullish control and shift the focus toward the next major resistance band.Upside Targets and Key Resistance ZonesWith bullish momentum firm, the next topside levels for traders to watch include:1.1779–1.1788: A key multi-touch swing areaAbove 1.1788: Opens the door to a more accelerated upside extensionAs long as the pair holds above the 61.8% level (1.17461) and, more importantly, above the Oct. 17 swing high at 1.17274, buyers remain firmly in control.Short-Term Trend Support: 5-Minute Chart Levels to WatchThe short-term trend remains bullish, supported by rising moving averages:100-bar MA: 1.1719 (approaching the 1.17274 breakout level)200-bar MA: 1.17065During the Asian-Pacific session, EURUSD dipped toward the rising 200-bar MA, where buyers defended support, launching the next leg higher into the European and North American sessions.For sellers to gain meaningful traction, price would need to:Break below the 100-bar MA (blue line on the chart above)Break below the 200-bar MA (green line on the chart above)Stay below both to shift intraday momentum as sellers can declare a victory.A move under those moving averages would be the first sign that buyers are losing short-term control.Conclusion and Video CommentaryIn the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author ofAttacking Currency Trends) walk through the EURUSD technical landscape, identify the precise risk parameters traders should monitor, and outline the next upside and downside targets that matter most.Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

SNB Holds Rates at 0.00% as Inflation Forecasts Edge LowerKey Takeaways (Neutral to Dovish Tilt):Policy rate unchanged at 0.00%, with the SNB reiterating readiness to intervene in FX markets when necessary.Inflation forecasts trimmed across 2026–2027, reinforcing subdued price pressures and a low-inflation environment.Economic outlook improves slightly, supported by lower U.S. tariffs and resilient global conditions, but risks from global trade policy remain significant.Summary of the statement from the SNB rate decision.Earlier today, the Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.00%, matching expectations in its final decision of 2025. The SNB noted that inflation pressures remain virtually unchanged, but its updated forecasts show slightly lower inflation over the next several years—0.2% in 2025, 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027—highlighting a persistently subdued price environment. Growth projections were modestly upgraded, with 2025 GDP now seen at 1.5% and 2026 GDP around 1.0%, reflecting the positive economic impact of lower U.S. tariffs on Swiss goods and somewhat stronger global activity.Even with these improvements, the SNB emphasized that the main risk to Switzerland’s outlook remains the global economy, particularly uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policy. The Bank observed that global growth has been more resilient than previously assumed but warned that tariffs could still weigh more heavily on momentum ahead. The SNB reiterated its willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market if needed to maintain appropriate monetary conditions. Overall, the tone of the statement is neutral with a dovish lean, reaffirming stable policy while acknowledging persistently low inflation and lingering global risks.Comments from SNB SchlegelKey Takeaways (Dovish Tilt):Policy remains expansive, with the SNB signaling inflation will rise gradually in coming quarters due to supportive monetary conditions and improving growth.Inflation outlook is “practically unchanged,” and the SNB remains ready to intervene in FX markets, keeping a bias toward maintaining easy policy rather than tightening.Return to negative rates unlikely, but Schlegel emphasized they remain available if deflation or major global shocks re-emerge.Summary and Analysis of comments from SNB Schlegel Chairman Martin Schlegel said the SNB expects inflation to rise slowly in the coming quarters but stressed that medium-term inflation pressure is essentially unchanged from the previous assessment. He reiterated that the current stance is appropriate and continues to support both price stability and economic growth.Schlegel noted that low interest rates remain effective largely through the exchange rate channel, and the Bank stands ready to intervene in FX markets if needed. Although the SNB downplayed recent softer inflation readings, it emphasized that risks remain elevated, including U.S. tariff policy. At the same time, uncertainty has “slightly declined,” and the global economy is expected to grow moderately.Importantly, the SNB repeated that while the threshold for returning to negative interest rates is much higher than in the past, the tool remains available should deflationary forces return. The recent U.S. reduction in tariffs on Swiss goods was acknowledged as supportive, but not policy-changing.Overall, the message reinforces that the SNB is comfortable staying on the dovish side of neutral, preferring to maintain accommodative conditions and relying on FX management rather than rate hikes to guide inflation back through its target zone.USDCHF Technical Analysis: SNB’s Dovish Tone and FX Intervention Warning Fuel Sharp CHF StrengthAlthough the SNB’s policy statement leaned neutral to dovish, with inflation forecasts trimmed for 2026 and 2027, Chairman Schlegel’s reluctance to even discuss a return to negative interest rates gave the Swiss franc a subtle tailwind. More importantly, the SNB repeated its willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market when necessary — a reminder that tends to spook USDCHF buyers and discourage aggressive CHF selling.The reaction in USDCHF was immediate and decisive. The pair has dropped –0.65%, making it the biggest USD mover of the session. The decline accelerated after price action failed on a move higher and against the 50% retracement of the entire trading range since the November high at 0.8000, with the session peak stalling at 0.8001 before sellers seized control. The slide then cut cleanly through the broken 38.2% retracement of the same move at 0.7971, and now opens the door toward a key swing-area support zone between 0.7923 and 0.79283 — the next major decision point for traders.In the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) break down the technical factors driving the move, outline where the risk is, and map out the next targets that matter most for USDCHF traders.Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Yesterday, the Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged at 2.25%.Key points from the Bank of Canada statement:BoC held the policy rate at 2.25%, maintaining a steady stance as inflation remains near target and the economy continues to adjust to global trade disruptions.Global conditions remain mixed: major economies are resilient despite US trade protectionism, with strong US consumption and AI investment, firmer-than-expected euro-area growth, and continued weakness in China’s domestic demand.Canada’s Q3 GDP surprised to the upside at 2.6%, but this strength was driven by volatile trade flows; underlying domestic demand was flat, and overall GDP is expected to weaken in Q4.Labour market shows tentative improvement, with employment gains over three months and unemployment falling to 6.5%, though trade-sensitive sectors remain soft and hiring intentions subdued.Inflation remains near target, with CPI at 2.2% and core measures between 2½% and 3%; underlying inflation is assessed around 2½%, and near-term CPI will be noisy due to last year’s GST/HST holiday effects.Policy stance deemed appropriate, with the current rate viewed as the right level to keep inflation close to 2% amid structural trade adjustments; BoC remains ready to respond if the outlook deteriorates.In his opening statement, Governor Tiff Macklem said the Bank of Canada emphasize 5 key points:5 key bullet points from BOC Macklems opening statement:BoC held the policy rate at 2.25%, judging it appropriate to keep inflation near 2% during a period of structural trade adjustment.US tariffs are hitting key sectors, but the overall Canadian economy remains more resilient than expected.CPI inflation stays contained near 2%, with core around 2½–3%, and temporary near-term volatility expected.Labour market shows modest improvement, though hiring intentions and trade-sensitive sectors remain weak.Elevated uncertainty—especially US trade policy and CUSMA review—means the BoC is prepared to respond if the outlook shifts.USDCAD Slides as Sellers Regain Control After Failed Test of Key Technical LevelsFollowing the Bank of Canada decision, USDCAD initially moved higher, but the upside momentum stalled at the 100-hour moving average, where buyers quickly turned into sellers. That shift pushed the pair back below the 50% retracement of the rise from the mid-June low, a key technical level at 1.3839. The Fed decision later reinforced the downside momentum, driving the pair to a post-announcement low of 1.37989, just under the 1.3800 psychological level.During today’s Asian session, USDCAD attempted a rebound, climbing toward Tuesday’s low near 1.3823, but sellers again defended the level and forced another rotation lower. The pair has now pushed to a fresh low and is testing the 61.8% retracement of the entire move up from the mid-June low at 1.37684. A decisive break below this Fibonacci support would open the door toward a major swing-area floor between 1.3720 and 1.37257, defined by three separate lows from August through September — a zone where buyers previously stepped in to halt declines.Sellers in control, but testing a key target retracement level. Video Analysis: USDCAD Technical Bias, Targets, and RiskIn the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) outline the key levels in play for the USDCAD and define (and show/explain) the bias, the targets and the risk from a technical perspective. Watch the full breakdown in the video above. Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.