Silver, Gold and other metals are struggling to pick-up momentum despite lower Oil pricesThe Ceasefire is set to expire soon, and both sides seem more reluctant to extend it without a dealIntraday timeframe analysis for XAG/USD and XAU/USD After rebounding sporadically over the past two weeks, Gold and other precious commodities have failed to match the broadly positive, euphoric mood currently driving equity markets. While they initially profited from the first corrective wave in the US Dollar, capital flows have aggressively pivoted toward risk-on assets. Traditional safe havens, which arguably lost their clear directional sight during the height of the war's panic, are now heavily questioning their role in this new environment—and investors are doing exactly the same.The geopolitical clock is ticking. The temporary US-Iran ceasefire is officially set to expire by Wednesday, April 22, and both sides appear increasingly reluctant to extend the truce without a finalized, signed agreement in place. The US Administration is eager for a peaceful resolution but the President communicated that he is also ready to use strength.Despite Crude Oil dropping back to the $90 handle, metals are struggling to pick up any meaningful bullish momentum while in this tense waiting room.Should the ceasefire unexpectedly collapse without a diplomatic resolution, precious metals could face a violent, binary reaction. If WTI Oil manages to remain contained below the critical $100 mark, Gold could absolutely explode higher on a sudden rush of risk-off haven flows, capitalizing on its recent technical correction, and a lack of worsening inflation expectations.Conversely, more risk-sensitive, industrial-leaning metals like Silver and Copper would likely struggle to catch a sustained bid, facing heavy downward pressure precisely because they are hovering near their current relative highs.Let's explore the recent shifts in an intraday timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to identify where are the key levels to watch for breakouts. Read More:Back at all-time highs, Investors take a break – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookMarkets Today: Oil surges 6% as sentiment sours, Nikkei rises. US-Iran developments in focusUSD/JPY forms a major Head & Shoulders pattern as Oil crumbles – FX AnalysisGold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart and levels Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, April 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Gold has rallied a quite impressive 17% after reaching 4-month lows on March 22, but has failed to breach the quintessential $4,900 resistance.For bulls to retake the intermediate momentum advantage, they will have to generate a proper push above the psychological level – that could potentially happen if sentiment sours further.In the immediate outlook however, the 4H 200-period MA is putting bearish pressure, hence if nothing fundamental changes, sellers would have the short-term advantage.A break below the $4,781 50 MA confirms a turn lower and would push back towards $4,650.Intraday Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):Resistance Levels:$4,800 4H 200-period MA$4,850 to $4,900 Major Resistance (bullish above)$5,100 Pivotal Resistance$5,400 mini-resistanceSupport Levels:$4,781 50-MA short-term supportDaily Momentum Pivot $4,675 (bearish below)Pivotal Support $4,325 – $4,400Main Channel Lows Support $4,100Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart and levels Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart, April 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Silver has also rallied strongly from its March 22 lows but is now struggling to extend above the $83 resistance.Still evolving within a bull channel, traders will have to track its upper ($84.50) and lower bounds ($77) to play breakouts.If the situation remains confusing as it currently is, expect the channel to consolidate into a range between $77 and $83.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):Resistance Levels:Major Resistance $83 to $84.50 (Mid-term bullish above)Key Range Resistance $90 to $92$96.47 March highs (higher odds of All-time highs if break above)Current Record $121.67Support Levels:Key Momentum Pivot $75 to $794H 50 and 200-period MAs ($77)December FOMC Minor Support $64 to $66$61.10 Past Session lows$50 to $55 October Resistance now Major SupportSilver's 2011 All-time highs $49.81 Safe Trades and a successful week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The ECB says it is still too early to fully assess the economic impact of the Iran conflict on the euro area, so policymakers should closely watch incoming data and avoid rushing into decisions.The war creates a classic supply shock: it raises energy and commodity prices, increases inflation risks, and at the same time threatens already weak euro area growth, especially through potential disruptions such as a Strait of Hormuz blockade.The ECB’s main concern is whether higher energy costs will trigger longer-lasting “second-round effects” across the economy; if inflation expectations rise and price pressures become persistent, the central bank may have to respond. The European Central Bank is still unable to clearly assess how strong the full impact of the war with Iran will be on the euro area economy. As Álvaro Santos Pereira, a member of the ECB’s Governing Council, emphasizes, the conflict is too recent to draw firm conclusions, so for now the central bank should closely monitor incoming data and refrain from hasty reactions.Too early for a full assessment of the conflict’s effectsAccording to Pereira, the current situation requires caution because this is a classic supply shock. Such shocks usually lead at the same time to weaker economic growth and higher inflation, putting the central bank in a particularly difficult position. On the one hand, energy and commodity prices are rising; on the other, economic activity is weakening. For the euro area, this means worsening conditions, although at this stage the negative impact of the conflict is not yet seen as dramatic.A supply shock puts the ECB in a difficult positionPereira notes that the euro area economy is currently somewhere between the ECB’s baseline scenario and the adverse scenario it had considered. Even before the current crisis, economic growth in the euro area had been running at around 1%, which in itself pointed to limited recovery momentum. In this situation, any additional external shock, especially one related to the energy market and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, increases the risk of a further weakening in economic conditions. ECB inflation and growth forecast, source: Bloomberg The ECB is paying particularly close attention to developments surrounding the fighting in the Middle East and the potential consequences for Europe of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This channel could be of key importance for oil prices, transport costs, and more broadly for cost pressures in the economy. For the central bank, however, the most important issue will not be the temporary rise in prices itself, but the possibility of so-called second-round effects. This refers to a situation in which higher energy and commodity prices begin to spread into other sectors of the economy, pushing inflation higher in a more lasting way.The biggest risk is entrenched inflationary pressureIn Pereira’s view, only clear signs that higher inflation is becoming entrenched, along with rising inflation expectations, should prompt the ECB to react. If such signals appear in the data, the central bank will have to respond. If, however, price pressure proves limited and temporary, it will be more appropriate to continue observing the situation and make decisions with great caution. This is particularly important at a time when less than two weeks remained before the ECB’s next interest-rate decision. Euro Area Inflation Rate, source: TradingEconomics Europe needs not only caution, but also reformsIn the Governing Council member’s opinion, short-term caution in monetary policy should not obscure the broader picture. Pereira points out that for more lasting growth, Europe also needs structural measures, above all faster completion of the single market. Deeper economic integration could increase Europe’s resilience to external shocks and improve its long-term growth prospects. For now, the ECB therefore remains in a mode of vigilant observation. The conflict with Iran is already worsening economic conditions in the euro area, but the scale of its impact has not yet been determined. The coming weeks and incoming data will show whether this is a temporary disruption or the start of stronger and more persistent inflationary pressure that would force the central bank to respond. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin has reclaimed the $76000 handle and maintains a firmly bullish technical structureThe $75000 psychological level is acting as a consistent pivot, suggesting sustained institutional interest.If buying pressure persists, the primary short-term goal is a run toward the psychological $80000 level, with the ultimate bullish hurdle being $82133.Most Read: Markets Today: Oil surges 6% as sentiment sours, Nikkei rises. US-Iran developments in focusBitcoin (BTC/USD) has displayed impressive resilience during the Monday session, shaking off early-morning sluggishness to reclaim the $76000 handle. After a brief period of consolidation, the premier cryptocurrency looks poised to challenge its recent highs, underpinned by a technical structure that continues to favor the "buy the dip" crowd.Daily Chart: Holding the MA High Ground The daily timeframe remains the cornerstone of the current bullish thesis. Following the impulsive "V-shaped" recovery throughout early April, Bitcoin has successfully turned previous resistance into rock-solid support.Key observations on the Daily:The SMA Support Sandwich: Bitcoin is currently trading comfortably above its 100-day MA (yellow) at $74145 and its 50-day MA (blue) at $70577.As long as the pair remains above this "support sandwich," the broader bias remains firmly bullish.The $75000 Pivot: The daily candles are showing a consistent ability to close above the $75000 psychological level, suggesting that institutional interest is picking up at these elevated levels.RSI Momentum: The Daily RSI is trending at 61, indicating that while momentum is positive, we are still a long way from the "danger zone" of 70+, leaving significant room for a run toward the $82133 hurdle.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart, April 20, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) H4 Chart: The Bullish Base at $74000 Zooming into the H4 chart, we can see a textbook example of healthy trend development. After hitting a local top near $78197, the pair underwent an orderly retracement that found a floor exactly at the 50-period MA (blue), currently at $74632.The H4 structure has now printed a significant higher low. With the RSI bouncing off its midpoint (58) after a "PIVOT" low signal, the indicators suggest that the corrective phase is over, and the next impulsive leg may be beginning to take shape.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, April 20, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) H1 Chart: Session Scenarios & Intraday Outlook The hourly chart provides the most immediate optimism, with Bitcoin slicing back above its 50, 100, and 200-period MAs in a single concerted move.The Bullish ScenarioFor the bulls to maintain this momentum into the Asian and European sessions, we need to see a sustained hold above the $75700 area (the H1 100-MA). A clean break above $76800 would likely trigger a liquidation of short positions, clearing the path for a retest of $78197. If buying pressure persists, a psychological run toward $80000 becomes the primary target.The Bearish ScenarioThe bears need a rejection at current levels and a break back below the $75000 pivot to regain any short-term control. Failure to hold the $74555 level (H1 200-MA) would signal a more prolonged consolidation, likely drawing the price back toward the structural support at $71673.However, given the current "BULL" labels on the RSI, the bears seem to be on the back foot for now.Key Levels to Watch:Resistance: $78197, $80000, $82133Support: $75000, $74145 (Daily 100-MA), $71673Bitcoin (BTC/USD) One-Hour Chart, April 20, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Bitcoin is effectively "re-loading" for its next major move. The confluence of support between $74,000 and $75,000 has proven to be a formidable base for the bulls. WIll it serve as a base for Bitcoin to finally push beyond the coveted $80000 mark?Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks extended to some fresh new record on Friday, but the euphoria is coming to a stallThe US-Iran Ceasefire is coming to an end on April 22, so Investors are looking for further developments from hereExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US Stock Benchmarks extended to fresh record highs on Friday, but the wall of euphoria is officially hitting a stall as a massive geopolitical deadline looms.The temporary US-Iran ceasefire is set to expire this Wednesday, April 22, and the market is growing increasingly anxious. Investors are desperately looking for further developments to justify current Market pricing, especially following recent reports that President Trump will not extend the ceasefire—and won't open the Strait of Hormuz—unless a finalized deal is signed.The diplomatic timeline has been frustratingly erratic. High-stakes negotiations were initially supposed to take place last Thursday before being pushed to the weekend, and now finally into this week. JD Vance apparently still hasn't left to Islamabad to kick off the new rounds of talks, and Wall Street is now done trading on rumors only. Investors are now demanding concrete advancements before they fund the next leg of this peace trade. PolyMarket odds for a peace deal. Source: TradingView – April 20, 2026 Odds for a Peace deal are remaining stuck below 40%, failing to extend above in recent days, and the turn from the White House rhetoric isn't helping much.This underlying caution is already showing up in the charts. While the Nasdaq and S&P 500 recently reached stunning new records, the Dow Jones—often a much more stable guide to broad Market appetite—has failed to gather the strength needed to push to all-time highs. This divergence is a glaring signal: smart money is still highly skeptical that the global economy will seamlessly revert to its pre-war normal. That skepticism is heavily reinforced in the energy sector, where WTI Crude remains uncomfortably sticky around the $90 handle. With the clock ticking down to Wednesday and the fate of the Strait of Hormuz hanging in the balance, let's look at intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:Markets Today: Oil surges 6% as sentiment sours, Nikkei rises. US-Iran developments in focusChart alert: Nasdaq 100 gap-down stalled above 26,288/142 key support, bulls are still in controlA real peace process or a fantasy? – Markets Weekly OutlookCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:34) – Source: TradingView – April 20, 2026 The Market is once again sending mixed signals, with Mega Caps taking a hit, but the rest remaining quite resilient on the session.The first week of earnings has been very decent, so that maintains a decent bid in Stocks, but the small changes on the session can only confirm the hesitancy from recent geopolitics.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – April 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA gapped back to 49,000 at the start of the week, limited in its progress by the rebound in WTI Crude and the lack of diplomatic progress.Now testing its gap fill at 49,560, a key test is showing up ahead:Extending above the 49,760 Friday highs hints at a continuation aboveOn the other hand, a rejection of the gap fill would hint at a break of the ceasefire bull channel. The 4H 50-period MA would be a decent test in such an occurrence.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsWeekend Gap fill 49,460 (testing)49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 HighsAll-Time Highs 50,544Support LevelsMajor Pivot – 49,000 to 49,200 (short-term bearish below) Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (Mid-term Bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600War Resistance now Key Support 47,000 +/- 100 Points (Bearish below)January 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – April 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq has now extended well above its prior all-time highs in a 17% firework – But the bullish momentum is coming to a stall.The RSI Momentum is largely diverging, hinting at a stalling in the price action until Markets learn more on the Fundamental issue.The base case is for a retest of the 26,200 prior all-time highs, a decent place of entry for optimistsBreaking 26,000 would hint at a larger pull-back (~25,500) in the event where momentum fails to persistNasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsDaily resistance 26,600 to 26,750New all-time highs 26,736Potential Resistance at 27,000 Support LevelsPrior ATH Pivot 26,200 to 26,300 (Short-term bearish below)25,400 to 25,500 Feb Range Intraday SupportWar Support 25,000 to 25,25024,450 to 24,550 Key SupportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – April 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is holding even better standards compared to its peers, also retesting its week-end gap fill (~7,110).Rejecting it would, like Nasdaq, point to a test of its prior all-time highs (~7,000 - 7,020)Rebounding from there should easily lead to new all-time highs (barring a worse fundamental outlook) as this also coincides with a test of the upward ChannelS&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsWeek-end gap 7,100 resistance (testing)New all-time resistance 7,150Next key potential resistance 7,200Support LevelsPrior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020December ATH Mini support 6,945 to 6,975Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900 Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,680 to 6,700 Key Support6,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the curve, with investors still confused about US-Iran negotiations.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (20/04/2026): Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart in discussing the market latest, including updates from the Persian Gulf as tensions flare, and a look ahead to this week's trading, including a testimony from Kevin Warsh on Tuesday. Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Bullish trend intact despite volatility: The Nasdaq 100 has led the post-ceasefire rally, breaking to new highs, and remains in a bullish structure even after a gap-down driven by renewed US–Iran tensions.Strong market breadth supports upside: A sharp improvement in breadth, more stocks trading above key moving averages, confirms broad participation and reinforces the sustainability of the uptrend.Key support holding keeps bulls in control: The index is stabilising above the critical 26,288/26,142 support zone; holding this level maintains upside potential toward 26,700–27,380, while a break below risks a deeper corrective pullback. Risk assets, particularly global equities, staged a sharp bullish reversal on 8 February 2026 following the US–Iran temporary ceasefire, which paused the six-week conflict and raised hopes of a broader peace deal. The high-beta, tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 led the rally, reversing an earlier 8% loss to post a 6.9% gain (from the 27 February 2026 pre-war baseline to 17 April 2026) and breaking above its previous all-time high set on 29 October 2025 (see Fig. 1). Fig. 1: Global benchmark stock indices performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 17 Apr 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). Nasdaq 100’s market breadth has improved significantly Fig. 2: Percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks trading above 20-day, 50-day & 200-day moving averages as of 17 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). Over the past five trading sessions, market breadth within the Nasdaq 100 has strengthened markedly, reinforcing the ongoing bullish trend.The share of component stocks trading above their 20-day and 50-day moving averages has surged from 11% and 15% on 27 March 2026 to 80% and 62%, respectively, as of 17 April 2026 (see Fig. 2).Similarly, the proportion of stocks above the key 200-day moving average has risen to 50% from 40% over the same period.Let's now focus on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index and its supporting elements from a technical analysis perspective.Nasdaq 100 – Gapped down but found support at 26,288/142 Fig. 3: US Nasdaq 100 CFD index minor trend as of 20 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). The index gapped down by 1.1% at the open of the Asian session on Monday, 20 April 2026, as renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz saw Tehran target vessels and reimpose controls, underscoring a highly fluid US–Iran conflict.In response, the US Navy engaged and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, casting fresh doubt over the ceasefire set to expire on Tuesday night (US time).While US Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead another round of peace talks, Iranian state media reports no plans for participation. Notably, the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index managed to stabilise around its former all-time high of 26,288 at this time of writing.The price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) have continued to oscillate within a minor ascending channel in place from the 7 April 2026 low of 23,808.Watch the 26,288/26,142 key short-term pivotal support to maintain its minor bullish acceleration phase for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 26,776, 27,140, and 27,380 (see Fig. 3).On the flip side, a break and an hourly close below 26,142 invalidates the bullish tone for a minor corrective decline to retest the next intermediate support at 25,900/800. Below 25,800 opens scope for a deeper slide towards the 25,215/25,110 medium-term pivotal support area.Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on the Nasdaq 100 Its price actions have traded above 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages since 8 April 2026. In addition, the 20-day moving average is now shaping a potential bullish crossover condition above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to exhibit a bullish momentum condition above its pull-back support at the 44 level.Elliot Wave Theory suggests the recent rally from the 2 April 2026 low of 23,511 is likely considered as a minor bullish impulsive wave three structure with its potential terminal zone at 27,140/27,380 (Fibonacci extension cluster from and the upper boundary of the minor ascending channel). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Discover our Weekly Market Outlook, exploring themes and events that forged financial flows throughout the week.Markets conclude a very volatile week, with hopes for peace going back and forth and sentiment losing its headGet ready for next week's action by exploring upcoming events across global Markets.Week in review – A proper peace process unfolding, will it lead to an actual deal? This week has been nothing short of historic.Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have charged to fresh all-time highs, completely leaving the geopolitical panic behind as traders aggressively price in a proper peace agreement – The move has bulldozed through any type of resistances and prior records, in a move that has left many traders scratching their head.Only the Dow Jones is looking to catch up to its younger peers, but is already on pace to do so – That is, if the current pricing withstands the weekend. Nasdaq Daily Chart – April 17, 2026 – Source: TradingView While the past two weeks of US-Iran negotiations have generated their fair share of chaotic headlines, the diplomatic process unfolding in Pakistan appears genuinely serious, with both sides making significant, market-moving concessions.The absolute catalyst for the week was this morning's market-rocking news regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.Bolstered by President Trump's remarks that he expects a finalized deal in a day or two, the geopolitical risk premium imploded. WTI 4H Chart – April 17, 2026 – Source: TradingView Oil prices collapsed nearly 10% since yesterday, completely erasing their previous rally to trade comfortably right below the $90 handle.Notably, clear signs of insider trading emerged in the Crude market just before the announcement—a continuation of the wild market craziness that has defined Trump’s second term, but certainly not a first.Moving forward, physical traders will be closely monitoring the Strait to see if actual tanker flows resume.The euphoria isn't limited to traditional equities paying out big peace dividends. Cryptocurrencies caught a massive bid, with Bitcoin exploding back to life and rallying to sit just below the $80,000 (~$78,000) mark as the weekend approaches, also boosting other crypto assets.On the macroeconomic front, the reality of the recent commodity shock is setting in. Both US CPI and PPI inflation reports rose strongly, although optimists will console as they missed their most extreme upside expectations.However, this energy-driven jump could merely be the beginning of a much more significant inflationary wave hitting the economy over the coming months.This week will provide fresh insights on inflation in other countries including Japan, Canada and the UK.Now, participants are bracing for a pivotal week.The current ceasefire officially expires on April 22 – Without a formal extension or a signed peace deal, this historic progress could vanish in a flash, throwing markets back into extreme volatility.An actual deal will be mandatory to sustain the rally.Weekly Performance across Asset Classes Weekly Asset Performance – April 17, 2026 – Source: TradingView As you can see, when Oil suffers, everybody dances. Even with the commodity gapping higher at the beginning of the week, Stock Markets have continued to explode higher and shortly after, everything followed.WTI Crude is down 10% since the beginning of the week, and off 17% from its weekly opening gap.The most risky assets have naturally outperformed the recovery, with Cryptos (ETH and Altcoins) on top, Silver dominating the Metals market and Nasdaq dominating global Stock benchmarks. Discover:USD/JPY forms a major Head & Shoulders pattern as Oil crumbles – FX AnalysisChart alert: The laggard Dow Jones (DJIA) is in the process of a bullish catch-up above 47,895 key supportChart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) potential bullish breakout above $4,900The Week Ahead – Major Inflation data coming up for Canada, the UK and Japan Traders will have to get ready for a roller-coaster week, with macroeconomic data and major peace headlines on schedule.Asia Pacific Markets – Japanese Inflation Japan is under heavy pressure regarding their future monetary policy, and with the Inflation report for March incoming, where the first effects of Energy price hikes will be felt, the moment could be decisive.The release is expected on Thursday evening (7:30 P.M.) – A large beat could confirm a rate hike at the end-May meeting if economic conditions don't worsen by then.Bank of Japan representatives did refuse to comment on the issue during the IMF Meeting.Europe and UK Markets – A Focus on the UK and Germany data GBP traders will have a lot on their plate in the coming week, with a three-streak combo:UK Employment, Inflation and Retail Sales, providing insights on the state of the economy and price rises as participants prepare for an economic shock.Euro traders will have to pay close attention to the ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey and German PMIs that could also reshape forward looking pricing for the Old Continent.North American Markets – Rare releases in the US, Geopolitics, and Canadian Inflation The US takes a relative break from economic data, only releasing Retail sales on Tuesday and leaves space for continued price discovery.Keep in mind that past week movements will be contingent on a sustainable peace deal with Iran, with the talks expected throughout the weekend.CAD traders will also have to reprice chances of future hikes with Canadian Inflation opening the North American week on Monday.A 2.5% consensus is announced, but energy price rises could definitely point to a beat on such low expectations.Next Week's High Tier Economic Events Next week's Economic Calendar – Courtesy of TradingEconomics Daily Market Wrap Cross-Asset Daily Performance, April 17, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Hormuz reopening news was icing on a very bullish cake to conclude this extremely positive week.The heaviest Beta assets did what they did best and kept exploding higher across the Asset map – Cryptos and Silver, finish on top, both up around 3% on average.US Benchmarks kept extending further to their newfound peaks, with the Dow Jones catching up and concluding the session on top.On the other side, Crude Oil took a 10% beating after the news, but somewhat bounced as the session went by – Expect a lot of movement in the commodity in the coming week.Safe Trades and an enjoyable weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (17/04/2026): We join TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart in discussing the latest developments in financial markets.Today, we discuss a sudden fall in crude oil prices, US equities challenging new highs, and look ahead to next week's trading, including key releases from Canada, the US, the UK & New Zealand. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

USD/JPY was once again the main target for US Dollar bulls amid the ongoing major US-Iran War, which began on February 27 (with a positive twist in the past week and a half).Energy commodity prices have more than doubled since the imposition of ceaseless supply restrictions from Iran's capture of the Strait of Hormuz. WTI and Brent Crude prices have at some point risen by more than 100% and are remaining about 35% higher than they were just at the beginning of February.A significant portion of Asian crude oil imports depends on this region. As a result, prices for both physical crude and refined products have soared.This was seen as a particular strain on the Eastern continent, and the clearest evidence is in the change in Jet Fuel prices. Jet Fuel Prices Averages in Asia and Europe – Source: IATA. April 17, 2026 For such a populous region, particularly dependent on fossil fuels for electricity production and manufacturing, this has proven quite damaging.Luckily for Japan, it has held the largest proven strategic oil reserves in the world, but this hasn't helped Forex hawks severely punish the JPY against the dominant US Dollar.Victim of its own confused Monetary Policy, with largely expected rate hikes progressively fading out due to slower inflation reports and contradicting policymakers, the Land of the Rising Sun was the target of a large FX repricing.Luckily for the Yen, the conflict is now priced to end soon.The Strait of Hormuz was announced reopened this morning, with statements from both the US and Iran, and the Administration pushing for it to move forward with the negotiations. USD/JPY and WTI Correlation. April 17, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/JPY has now entered a corrective phase, which could extend if the conflict were to end.With a Head and Shoulders pattern forming, it will be important to see whether this move indeed has legs, pointing to longer-term bearish positioning in the pair.Let's dive right into a multi-timeframe analysis for the Gopher – more commonly named, USD/JPY. Read More:Chart alert: The laggard Dow Jones (DJIA) is in the process of a bullish catch-up above 47,895 key supportThe US Dollar is stalls as the world awaits Ceasefire news – DXY OutlookChart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) potential bullish breakout above $4,900USD/JPY Multi-Timeframe AnalysisDaily Chart USD/JPY Daily Chart. April 17, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/JPY is now entering a potentially significant corrective phase, pushing towards a break of the range established since March 10.Testing and wicking at the 50-Day Moving Average (157.60), mean-reversion buying has faded the morning move, but the Daily RSI, now falling in bearish territory, is pointing to a move that could have just begun.Let's take a closer look.4H Chart and Technical Levels USD/JPY 4H Chart. April 17, 2026 – Source: TradingView The action shows a bit more details on the morning volatile action, with buyers re-entering at the precise 157.533 lows reached on March 19.With the RSI quickly falling, the action is now close to oversold which could prompt interesting mean-reversion to offer pullback entry opportunities.A break of the morning lows could extend to the 155.00 Mini-Support, target of the Head & Shoulders measured move.Resistance levels158.50 to 159.50 2026 Major Resistance (pullback interest)4H 200-period MA 158.920April 2024 160.00 to 160.40 Major ResistanceJune Mini resistance 160.70 to 161.00Support levels157.533 lows reached on March 19 (bearish below)December highs Major Pivot 157.40 to 157.85156.485 4H 200-period MA156.00 Pivotal Support155.00 Mini-SupportSafe Trades and wishing you a pleasant week-end ahead!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The FTSE 100 maintains a firm bullish posture, holding comfortably above the 10000 psychological levelThe index is currently consolidating sideways between 10550 and 10700 as it searches for its next catalyst.The broader "buy-the-dip" structural breakout remains the primary driver, with bulls staying in control as long as the index holds above 10500.Most Read: NZD/USD Technical Outlook: Bulls stare down major resistance, bullish bias hinges on the 0.5821 pivotThe FTSE 100 continues to exhibit resilient price action as we close out the trading week. Despite a brief period of volatility in March, the index has firmly reclaimed its bullish posture, underpinned by a shift that suggests the path of least resistance remains to the upside.Daily Chart: Structural Strength and Moving Average Support On the daily timeframe, the FTSE 100 is currently consolidating just below its recent swing highs. The most notable technical development is the index's ability to remain comfortably above the 10000 psychological level, which previously served as the "12 Nov Swing High."Key takeaways from the daily view:The SMA Cluster: The index is trading well above its 100-day MA (blue) at 10198 and the 200-day MA (yellow) at 9761. The widening gap between price and these long-term averages highlights the strength of the current trend.Ascending Support: A clear ascending trendline (black) continues to guide price action higher, currently providing a dynamic floor near the 10400 zone.RSI Momentum: The Daily RSI is sitting at 58.3, comfortably away from overbought territory. This suggests there is significant "white space" for the index to rally toward the 10786 resistance level before momentum exhaustion becomes a primary concern.FTSE 100 Daily Chart, April 17, 2026 Source: TradingView H4 Chart: Consolidation Following the Recovery The H4 chart provides a clearer picture of the recovery following the late-March dip. After testing liquidity below 10000, the index surged back, reclaiming the 10269 and 10500 handles.We are currently seeing a period of sideways consolidation between 10550 and 10,700. The H4 RSI is currently neutral at 51.0, reflecting a market that is searching for its next catalyst. The 100-period MA (blue) on the H4 is currently trending at 10352, acting as a secondary line of defense should we see an intraday pullback.FTSE 100 Four-Hour Chart, April 17, 2026 Source: TradingView H1 Chart: Session Scenarios & Key Levels The H1 chart shows the index currently hovering around the 10596 mark, sandwiched between the 50-period (dark blue) and 100-period (yellow) moving averages on this timeframe.The Bullish ScenarioFor the bulls to reassert dominance in the upcoming session, we need to see a sustained hold above the intraday pivot at 10600. A clean break above the recent local high of 10660 would open the door for a retest of the major resistance ceiling at 10786. Traders should watch for the RSI to climb back above 60 to confirm that buying momentum is returning.The Bearish ScenarioIf the index fails to hold the 10580 support level (near the current 100-MA), we could see a slide toward the 10552 handle. A break below this zone would suggest a deeper corrective move is underway, potentially targeting the H4 support at 10500. The appearance of a "PIVOT" high on the RSI suggests that the immediate upside might be capped in the very short term.Key Levels to Watch:Resistance: 10660, 10700, 10786 (Major)Support: 10580, 10552, 10500FTSE 100 One-Hour Chart, April 17, 2026 Source: TradingView The FTSE 100 remains in a "buy-the-dip" regime. While intraday consolidation is the current theme, the broader structural breakout on the daily chart remains the primary driver. As long as the index holds above 10500 on a closing basis, bulls remain in control.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Gold positioning for breakout: After rebounding ~18% from March lows, gold is consolidating below the $4,900 resistance (near the 50-day MA), with technicals suggesting a potential bullish breakout if this level is cleared.Macro tailwinds improving: Rising odds of Fed rate cuts, a weakening US dollar, and declining US real yields are reducing opportunity costs and creating a supportive backdrop for gold prices.Catch-up trade vs equities: Gold has lagged equities despite similar macro drivers, but intermarket dynamics point to a potential bullish catch-up move, towards $4,980/5,039 and $5,125/5,166 with key short-term support at $4,700/4,645. Gold (XAU/USD) has held steady on Friday, 17 April 2026, during the Asian session with a minuscule intraday gain of 0.2% to trade at $4,800 at this time of writing.The precious yellow metal was on track for a fourth straight weekly gain, as hopes for a US-Iran peace deal eased fears of stagflation risk and higher longer-term interest rates.Based on the pre-US-Iran war baseline set on 27 February 2026, gold has plummeted by 22% (high to low) to print an intraday low of $4,099 on 23 March 2026.Thereafter, it rebounded by 18% to hit an intraday high of $4,871 on Wednesday, 15 April 2026, just below its 50-day moving average, which is acting as an intermediate resistance at around $4,900.So far, spot gold based on prices quoted by the London Bullion Market Association has underperformed the other global cross-asset classes since the start of the war, where it still recorded a loss of 8% as of Thursday, 16 April 2026, versus positive gains seen in global equities where the MSCI All Country World Index rebounded back to almost the unchanged level (+0.69%), led by the US mega-cap technology centric, Nasdaq 100 that reversed to a gain of 5.50% (see Fig. 1). Fig. 1: Global cross-assets performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 16 Apr 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The primary reason for gold to lag equities at this juncture (same movement but different pace) is due to its non-income-bearing feature, as gold does not yield dividends and earnings, but competes with the US dollar and fixed income assets such as bonds.Intermarket analysis suggests that gold is likely to play a bullish catch-up at this juncture to narrow equities’ outperformance gap.A less hawkish Fed may put a halt to the US dollar's strength Fig. 2: CME FedWatch tool aggregated FOMC meeting probabilities as of 17 Apr 2026 (Source: CME FedWatch tool). During the onset of the US-Iran war, the US Dollar Index staged a rally of 3% to hit an 11-month high of 100.64 on 31 March 2026 as Fed funds interest rate cut bets evaporated to a chance of zero in 2026 due to stagflation fear from a potential prolonged global oil supply shock via the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.As ceasefire chances have increased in the past five trading sessions, the CME FedWatch tool, as of 17 April 2026, has started to show an increased odds of a 25 basis points cut (from 0% to 33%), potentially reducing the Fed funds rate to 3.25%-3.50% on the 9 December 2026 FOMC meeting (see Fig. 2).An implied less hawkish Fed momentary policy priced by the Fed funds futures market has led to a 2.8% drop in the US Dollar Index to 98.20, and it has traded below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages at the time of writing.A further weakening of the US dollar is likely to boost another round of a positive feedback loop for gold.Longer-term US Treasury real yield staged a major bearish reaction below 2.2% Fig. 3: 10-year US Treasury real yield medium-term trend as of 17 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). Gold has a significant indirect correlation with the longer-term US Treasury yields, as the precious yellow metal is a non-interest income-bearing asset.Hence, a higher 10-year US Treasury real yield (nominal yield minus inflationary expectations from break-even rate) will tend to imply a higher opportunity cost for owning and holding gold, in turn, lesser demand that may drive down prices of gold. Vice versa, gold will tend to benefit from a lower 10-year US Treasury real yield.The 10-year US Treasury real yield has hit a 9-month high of 2.17% on 27 March 2026, just a whisker below its long-term pivotal resistance of 2.20% before it reversed down and broke a key ascending trendline support from the 2 March 2026 low that previously led to a sell-off in gold (see Fig. 3).Right now, a break below its recent 15 April 2026 low of 1.85% (also the 200-day moving average) is likely to see further weakness in the 10-year US Treasury real yield to retest its medium-term range support at 1.66%, in turn, benefiting gold.Let us now dissect the short-term outlook (1 to 3 days) of gold (XAU/USD) from a technical analysis perspective.Gold (XAU/USD) – Poised for a bullish breakout above $4,900 Fig. 4: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 17 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). The price actions of gold (XAU/USD) have been traded above its 20-day moving average since a retest of it on Monday, 13 April 2026 (after the failure of the first round of US-Iran peace talks).Watch the $4,700/4,645 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above $4,900 sees the start of another potential bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at $4,980/5,039 and $5,125/5,166 in the first step (see Fig. 4).However, a break and an hourly close below $4,645 invalidates the bullish tone for a slide towards the next intermediate support at $4,524/4,486 (also 50% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 23 March 2026 low to 15 April 2026 high).Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on gold (XAU/USD) Price actions of gold (XAU/USD) have been oscillating within a minor ascending channel since the 23 March 2026 low.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has managed to stage a rebound at a horizontal support of 39.Elliot Wave Theory suggests the recent rally from the 27 March 2026 low of $4,351 is likely considered as a minor bullish impulsive wave three structure with its potential terminal zone at $4,980/5,166 (1.382 and 1.618 Fibonacci extensions). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

WTI and Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis with key levels as US-Iran news are still awaitedDespite extreme positivism in Stock Markets, Energy commodities remain doubtfulVolatility continues to shrink, but the latest progress has largely stalled The pricing of a peace deal between the US and Iran is continuous but also quite coarse.While Equity Markets have gone on an absolute frantic rally, boosted by short-covering, options delta hedging, TACOs, and an ever-hungrier investor, Commodities are subject to very different dynamics.Particularly when it comes to Energy products, Supply and Demand play their own very influential role. While Futures pricing helps to dictate expectations, Traders have to remember that, before anything else, real products are needed for production, consumption, and much more around the world – Hence, physical demand has an immense influence on prices.A major narrative that has emerged throughout the War is the large difference between physical and futures pricing, which has raised questions about a disconnect between Market pricing and the real-life issues faced by large buyers. WTI Futures Backwardation from April 15, 2026 – Source: CMEGroup The Futures Market has been in a large backwardation (where front contracts trade well above later contracts) – A natural formation amid supply fears, but no less damaging for hedgers. I invite you all to discover such dynamics throughout this fantastic CME piece.Add to this gigantic regional discrepancies in Barrel prices, particularly in Asia, and you get a Market pulled higher by relentless demand while supply remains in a large drought. This has created another wave of rallying throughout the session, with selloffs remaining supported by fresher bids – As long as Hormuz remains closed, a grind higher on pullbacks in Oil remains the path of least resistance.Meanwhile, US-Iran talks that were supposed to start again today, are finally set to only start throughout the weekend. This did come with its fair share of good news, with Israel and Lebanon agreeing to a ceasefire, a final step before the discussions. Gulf Oil Delivery Issues since End-February. Source: IEA With these factors in mind, let's dive right into an intraday outlook for both WTI and Brent Oil, highlighting their technical levels and outlining scenarios for their breakouts or breakdowns. Discover:The US Dollar is stalls as the world awaits Ceasefire news – DXY OutlookChart alert: AUD/USD 360 pips rally at risk of a minor mean reversion decline below 0.7200 before new uplegCable eyes 1.3696 after reclaiming key moving averages, bulls defend 1.3500Crude Oil Market Check and Technical LevelsWTI 4H Chart WTI Oil 4H Chart – April 16, 2026. Source: TradingView WTI Crude has once again fallen below Brent after an irregular Market pricing throughout the past week, tumbling to $87.20 with Israel-Lebanon Peace talks boosting sentiment.Nevertheless, as expressed in the introduction, the path of least resistance is to the upside, hence, bulls have pushed the commodity right back towards the 4H 200-period moving average (~$94.30). Having rejected it, sellers will want to see extension back towards $90.Failing to do so could see a large $90 to $100 range as traders await for clear instructions on where to look next.Resistance and Support levels remain the best guides to navigate these volatile environments.WTI Technical Levels:Resistance LevelsDaily highs $113.50 to $114.50 (small channel top)2022 and Monday highs $117 to $120 (larger channel top)Ukraine War Spike $120 to $124Support LevelsWar Support $93.00 - $95 (testing)$87 to $90 mini-Support (recent bounce)$82.80 to $84 micro-Support2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80$69 to $70 Final War SupportBrent 4H Chart Brent Oil 4H Chart – April 16, 2026. Source: TradingView Brent is still in a more contained price action compared to WTI, with the range now extending to $95 to $107.Now testing its key 50 and 200-4H MAs, the action remains quite undecided.Breakout traders will want to see a daily close below $95 (for sellers) and a clean break above $107 for buyers.If the situation remains uncertain, the range should maintain.Brent Technical Levels:Resistance Levels$100 - $102 End-March PivotMini Resistance $105 - $107Range Resistance $111 to $114War Highs $117 to $120Support LevelsEnd-March Support $95 to $97$92.39 Recent dip$88 - $92 March 10 Bounce and 200-MA$80 - $82 Key War SupportPre-War Gap $75Keep track of the headlines as the talks come closer by the second.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The daily chart confirms a major structural breakout, shifting the macro bias for GBP/USD from "sell the rallies" to "buy the dips".The primary structural target for the current rally is the major resistance zone at 1.3696"Cable" is consolidating near the 1.3600 handle, with intraday bulls defending the critical psychological pivot at 1.3500.The Bullish Scenario requires a sustained hourly close above 1.3584 to target 1.3650, while a break below 1.3500 would signal a deeper corrective phase.Most Read: Chart alert: Nikkei 225’s bullish reversal extends towards new all-time highsGBP/USD has enjoyed a stellar run of late, capitalizing on a weakening US Dollar and a shift in global risk sentiment. However, as we move into the tail end of the week, "Cable" is finding the air a bit thin near the 1.3600 handle, setting the stage for a battle between trend followers and mean-reversion traders.Daily Chart: Structural Breakout Confirmed The daily timeframe provides the most compelling evidence of a medium-term trend shift. After months of being capped by a persistent descending trendline (dark navy), GBP/USD staged a clean breakout in early April.Crucially, the pair has successfully reclaimed its 100-day MA (blue) at 1.3444 and its 200-day MA (black) at 1.3413. This "double reclaim" of the major moving averages suggests that the macro bias has shifted from "sell the rallies" to "buy the dips." Currently, the pair is eyeing the next major structural hurdle at 1.3696, which represents a significant historical resistance zone.The Daily RSI is at 62.7, indicating healthy bullish momentum with plenty of runway before hitting the overbought 70.0 threshold.GBP/USD Daily Chart, April 16, 2026 Source: TradingView H4 Chart: Bulls Defend the 1.3500 Handle Moving down to the H4 chart, the impulsive nature of the current rally is clear. The pair surged through the 1.3500 psychological level, which had previously acted as a formidable ceiling.What is particularly encouraging for bulls is the "retest and depart" behavior seen around the 1.3500 mark. The H4 RSI (currently at 65.7) recently flagged a "BEAR" pivot, leading to a minor cooling-off period.However, as long as the price remains comfortably above the 1.3378 structural support and the ascending moving averages, the intraday path of least resistance remains to the upside.GBP/USD Four-Hour Chart, April 16, 2026 Source: TradingView H1 Chart: Session Scenarios & Intraday Levels The hourly chart shows Cable currently consolidating in a tight range between 1.3560 and 1.3585. The 100-MA (blue) on this timeframe is providing immediate dynamic support at 1.3509.The Bullish ScenarioFor the rally to extend in the upcoming session, we need to see a sustained hourly close above the 1.3584 resistance level (the purple line). A successful breach here would likely see a quick test of the 1.3600 psychological barrier, with the door then opening for a move toward 1.3650. Bulls should look for high-volume candles on the breakout to confirm the move isn't a "bull trap."The Bearish ScenarioThe bearish case rests on the potential for a "double top" or exhaustion near 1.3585. If the pair fails to clear this hurdle and slips below 1.3540, we could see a deeper retracement toward the 1.3500 pivot. This area aligns with the 100-period SMA on the H1, making it a critical "line in the sand" for intraday bulls. A break below 1.3500 would signal a broader corrective phase toward 1.3422.Key Levels to Watch:Resistance: 1.3584, 1.3600, 1.3696Support: 1.3500, 1.3444 (Daily 100-MA), 1.3378GBP/USD One-Hour Chart, April 16, 2026 Source: TradingView GBP/USD is clearly the "pro-cyclical" choice at the moment, benefitting from the broader USD retreat. While short-term overextension is a risk, the daily structural breakout suggests that any near-term weakness should be viewed as an opportunity for bulls to reload.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Ceasefire optimism driving rebound: Improving prospects of a US–Iran ceasefire and reduced escalation risks have lifted sentiment, fuelling a strong recovery in the Nikkei 225 despite lingering stagflation concerns.Macro support from JGB yield curve steepening: Bullish steepening in Japan’s yield curve signals easing growth fears and has historically moved in tandem with equities, reinforcing the bullish outlook for the Nikkei.Uptrend gaining momentum near record highs: The index has rallied ~18% from late-March lows and is approaching all-time highs, with further upside likely if key support holds, while a break below support may trigger a short-term pullback. The current US-Iran ceasefire optimism, which is now translating into a higher chance of a peace deal, has ignited the bulls in the Japanese stock market despite the ongoing blockage of the Strait of Hormuz that hinders global oil supply, which, in turn, may rouse stagflation risk.The failure of the negotiation talks between the US and Iran over the last weekend did not lead to a further escalation of attacks by both sides, but rather some form of compromise to find a “middle ground” as the US and Iran are considering extending the earlier ceasefire deadline agreement, due on next Tuesday, 21 April, by another two weeks, and to allow make time to set up another round of negotiation talk before 21 April.Nikkei 225 trimmed losses above the key 200-day moving average Fig. 1: Global major benchmark stock indices performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 15 Apr 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). Since the start of the US-Iran war, the Nikkei 225 has declined by 13% from the 27 February 2026 high towards a low of 50,395 printed on 30 March 2026 while holding above its key 200-day moving average at around 48,250.In the past five trading sessions, the losses have been trimmed, and the Nikkei 225 has now recorded a marginal loss of 1.2% measured from 27 February 2026 to 15 April 2026 (see Fig. 1).Continuation of JGB yield curve bullish steepening has discounted stagflation fear Fig. 2: JGB yield curves major trends with Nikkei 225 as of 16 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). Since last Monday, 6 April 2026, the shorter-term (2-year) Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield has declined at a faster pace (6 basis points) versus a drop of 4 bps seen the 10-year JGB yield.Therefore, a bull steepening has occurred on the yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year JGBs that led to trade higher above its key 200-day moving average, acting as a support at 0.84%, to a 15-year high at 1.05% at this time of writing.A further continuation of a bullish steepening seen in the JGB yield curve is likely to support a further bullish impulse up move sequence in the Nikkei 225, as both move in direct lockstep since June 2022 (see Fig. 2).Let’s now focus on the technical factors to determine Nikkei 225’s potential short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days).Nikkei 225 – Oscillating within a minor ascending channel Fig. 3: Japan 225 CFD index minor trend as of 16 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). The ongoing 18% rally seen from the 31 March 2026 low on the Japan 225 CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) is now fast approaching an intermediate resistance of 59,890/60,075 (also the current all-time high printed on 26 February 2026).Watch the 57,830/57,274 short-term pivotal support to maintain the bullish momentum for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 60,832 and 62,044 (Fibonacci extension clusters) in the first step (see Fig. 3).On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below 57,274 invalidates the bullish bias for a minor corrective decline within an uptrend phase to expose the next intermediate support at 55,695 (also the 50-day moving average), and below it may see 55,130/54,600 next (also the 20-day moving average)Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on Nikkei 225 Price actions are trading above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.The hourly RSI momentum indicator hit an overbought reading without a bearish divergence condition. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

With US fighter jets on the sideline, US Stock Benchmarks are experiencing a sonic boomThe resumption of talks is supposed to take place tomorrow, and traders don't seem to wonder if they are getting ahead of themselvesExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 After remaining close to unchanged in the beginning of the session, Stock Markets got off to the burners.With no pity for whoever remained short of the war, bulls are leading an absolute rampage, which has now taken two out of the three major US Benchmarks just a few points short of their all-time highs.Traders are still repricing the immense progress in the geopolitical situation, and, from what it seems, the narrative has shifted from global recessions and rate hikes due to oil supply shortages to the US outperforming everybody else yet again.The end of the Middle Eastern war is certainly good news. With U.S. crude oil orders projected to reach record highs next month, and the Strait of Hormuz still in a deadlock, it makes sense for Wall Street to be excited.Nonetheless, this rally seems to be surpassing everyone's expectations, and not surprisingly, given that a proper peace deal still hasn't been drawn up. At least, the Fintwit arena seems to be lagging behind the move.A second round of US-Iran negotiations is supposed to take place on Thursday, and with Stock Markets only focusing on President Trump's words, the one thing they are salivating over is his obsession with reaching a deal illico presto. PolyMarket odds for a peace deal. Source: TradingView – April 15, 2026 The Prediction-Markets-based odds for a peace deal by April 30 remain unchanged from yesterday (~37%).WTI, on the other hand, is holding steady just above $90 as Energy traders remain more skeptical of the potential for a diplomatic solution.As long as Hormuz remains stuck, the situation for Oil prices doesn't change, and the US wins, with a large number of empty tankers now heading to the Gulf of "America" to make Black Gold flow again.In other news, the Beige Book was just released, and the economic situation that seemed to worsen since October really now seems to be a mere correction, with 8 out of 12 districts reporting modest growth despite the huge raises in Energy prices.The details are showing a bit more internal weakness, but in terms of Macroeconomic trend, the activity is just slightly tilting upwards – Enough for Stock Markets to keep up their ecstatic advances.You can get access to the full Beige Book report right here. Will the huge advances continue? As the Dow Jones actually pulls back, the rally isn't as widespread as it seems, and the more tech-focused Nasdaq and S&P 500 are benefiting from large advances in Mega Caps.The S&P 500 is now breaking its all-time highs, trading above 7,000 for the first time since January, while the Nasdaq is only a few points away from its October record.The most pessimistic traders are hoping to see a case of buying the rumor, selling the news, something that could be interesting, but fading such bullish candles could be quite dangerous.Let's look at intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Bitcoin battles 75k resistance as bulls eye further gainsOn track to all-time highs? Ceasefire may extend – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateEUR/USD: A look at the 1.1800 battle and key support levelsCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (12:00) – Source: TradingView – April 15, 2026 The Market really is pushing higher from the pursued extension from Mega Caps, with Microsoft pushing higher by 5.80%, Tesla up 7.40% and the general Technology Services sub-sector shining bright.On the other hand, the more defensive Manufacturing sectors are taking a generalized hit along with Utilities and Healthcare.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – April 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow is now lagging its peers quite remarkably, struggling from intra-market sector dynamics, failing to surpass its previous session highs.Once again, the DJIA remains the Index to trade for those tracking live sentiment as the younger benchmarks tend to see exaggeration on Tech movement.Looking at the price action, Dow Bulls are officially waiting for further news.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsMini-resistance 48,700Major Resistance – 49,000 to 49,20049,500 psychological mini-resistance49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Daily Range HighsSupport LevelsMomentum Pivot 48,300 (bull above)Pivotal Support at 48,000 (Bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600War Resistance now Key Support 47,000 +/- 100 Points (Bearish below)January 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – April 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is up close to 15% in a quite insane price action, closing in by the minute to the its October all-time highs.The CFD record is at 26,280, while the actual Index record is at 26,182 (only 20 points from here).It wouldn't be surprising to see the record break after such a significant run, but traders could also see high volatility in case the talks fail.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsAll-time high resistance 26,200 to 26,300 (testing)October all-time highs 26,283Potential resistance 26,600 to 26,750Support LevelsMomentum Pivot 25,700 to 25,850 25,400 to 25,500 Feb Range Pivotal supportSupport 25,000 to 25,25024,450 to 24,550 Key SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – April 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is officially going parabolic, breaking its January all-time high with ease and aims to officially continue its price discovery.Similarly as Nasdaq, the rally shall continue if the ceasefire talks tomorrow maintain the hopes for a proper peace deal.Look at 7,050 - 7,060 for some mild profit-taking in that scenarioS&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsATH Resistance and Range Highs from 7,000 to 7,020 (broken)Daily Highs 7,027Next key potential resistance 7,060 to 7,080Support LevelsDecember ATH Pivot 6,945 to 6,975 (testing)Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,680 to 6,700 Key Support6,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The technical picture has turned "decidedly optimistic" as EUR/USD has reclaimed its 50, 100, and 200-day Moving Averages (MAs).Momentum oscillators on the H4 chart, with RSI at 70.5, suggest the move is overextended.Bulls must secure an hourly close above the 1.1800 psychological level to maintain control.If the pair fails at 1.1800 and slips below the intraday pivot at 1.1780, it could lead to a correction toward the 1.1750 zone.Most Read: Silver (XAG/USD) at a Crossroads: Bullish breakout meets overbought momentumEUR/USD finds itself at another crossroad after recent developments have seen the pair test a multi year pivot level of 1.1450. Since then EUR/USD has attempted to grind its way higher but further upside is facing a few hurdles.Daily Chart: Structural Shift Underway Looking at the daily timeframe, the technical picture has shifted from cautiously bearish to decidedly optimistic. After finding significant demand at the Multi-Year Pivot near 1.1450, the pair has embarked on a sustained rally.The most significant development on the daily chart is the price action surrounding the MA cluster. EUR/USD has managed to reclaim the 50, 100, and 200-day Moving Averages (MAs), which are currently converging around the 1.1670 - 1.1690 zone (highlighted by the red box). This area now shifts from a major resistance ceiling to a foundational support floor.With the RSI currently at 64.4, there is still space before reaching extreme overbought conditions, suggesting that the path of least resistance remains to the upside toward the 1.1867 resistance level.EUR/USD Daily Chart, April 15, 2026 Source:TradingView.com H4 Chart: Momentum Oscillators Hint at Exhaustion On the H4 timeframe, the "Golden Cross" and the steep ascending slope of the 50 MA (purple line) underscore the strength of the recent move. The pair recently sliced through the 1.1721 and 1.1769 horizontal hurdles with relative ease.However, a note of caution is warranted. The RSI on the H4 is currently printing at 70.5, having recently flagged several "BEAR" pivot warnings. This indicates that while the trend is bullish, the move is becoming overextended in the short term.We often see a period of consolidation or a "retest" of previous breakout levels when the H4 RSI hits these extremes, which could see the pair gravitate back toward 1.1769 before the next leg higher.EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart, April 15, 2026 Source:TradingView.com H1 Chart: European Session Scenarios The hourly chart provides a clear roadmap for the day ahead. Price action is currently consolidating just below the 1.1800 handle, which will be the primary battleground for the European session.The Bullish ScenarioFor the bulls to maintain control, we need to see a clean hourly close above the 1.1800 psychological level. If buying pressure persists, the next logical target is the 1.1867 area. Traders should watch for a "bull flag" formation on the H1; as long as the pair holds above the 1.1769 support, the intraday bias remains firmly long.The Bearish ScenarioThe bearish case relies on the RSI divergence and the "BEAR" labels currently populating the H1 peaks. If EUR/USD fails to clear 1.1800 and slips below the intraday pivot at 1.1780, we could see a move toward the 1.1750 zone, where the 50 MA (H1) is currently rising to meet price.A deeper correction toward the 1.1726 level cannot be ruled out if the US Dollar finds a haven bid during the session.Key Levels to Watch:Resistance: 1.1800, 1.1867, 1.2000Support: 1.1769, 1.1726, 1.1696 (Major)EUR/USD One-Hour Chart, April 15, 2026 Source:TradingView.com EUR/USD is enjoying a "bullish honeymoon" after reclaiming its major daily moving averages. While the H4 and H1 oscillators suggest a temporary breather might be healthy, the structural breakout suggests that dips are likely to be bought.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar may have just seen its brightest days at the cost of a world-shaking US-Iran-Israel conflict.Having bullied through a gigantic rebound since February, the Greenback had been invincible. Petrodollar trades and higher-for-longer US rates tend to largely support the global reserve currency.Add to it historic bearish positioning against it, and traders saw the perfect conditions to push the USD to 11-month highs.This was enough to question whether dedollarization was just a fantasy, rather than a proper regime change in Financial Markets.Nevertheless, things changed in the past couple of weeks. President Trump, frustrated by developments such as lower stock markets, higher commodity prices, and a more expensive dollar—economic trends he publicly dislikes—found himself in a pessimistic mood right ahead of the November midterm elections.Hence, the Administration has been pushing aggressively for a truce, specifically because this aligns with the prolonged mid-April deadline for the conflict to end.While a proper peace deal hasn't yet been reached, diplomatic attempts are, for now, heading the right way, leading to a consequent tumble in the US Dollar. Daily FX performance against the US Dollar – Courtesy of Finviz (April 14, 2026) You can see the direct result from today's FX performance.The US Dollar lost around 2% of its value against a basket of major currencies and has begun to revert to its trajectory.Reaching a key support level, however, Currency traders could be taking a break from their dollar sales. We will explore key levels right after taking a quick look at the Dollar Index chart. Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart. April 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView Stalling at the major 98.00 Support, the US Dollar could be seeing a short-term pause in its selling; hence, it is important not to get caught in the crosswinds of a potential reversal.However, this could provide opportunities to catch a pullback in the currency and offer decent setups in major FX pairs!In preparation for the next phase of a longer-run dollar selloff (conditional on the conflict really coming to an end), we will look at three key FX Majors and their intraday timeframes to see how the range in the Dollar Index affects their own currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/CAD. Read More:Stocks continue their peace (hopes) rally, Producer Inflation (PPI) misses! – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookSilver (XAG/USD) at a Crossroads: Bullish breakout meets overbought momentumCritical Crossroads: USD/CHF tests key support at 0.78285. Is a bounce to 0.7900 up next?AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Bulls regain control as key psychological level holdsEUR/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels EUR/USD 4H Chart. April 14, 2026– Source: TradingView EUR/USD quickly profited from the truce to rally 2,000 to 1.18.However, meeting a significant resistance zone and overbought RSI conditions, the odds for upside continuation from here a slim (on the short-run).In such conditions, buying on a pullback makes the most sense.Aggressive buyers could look at 1.1750 for entries (less optimal)The best setup would be located at the 1.17 to 1.1720 March PivotThis would require the peace process to keep progressing.Aggressive sellers could look to enter at current levels and will want to see a break below 1.17 to add to their positions (in the event of worsening fundamentals) Levels of interest for EUR/USD TradingResistance levelsResistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)1.1850 - 1.1860 ResistanceMorning highs 1.18114Sep 2021 Highs – Resistance 1.19 to 1.1950 ZoneSupport levels1.17 to 1.1720 March PivotPivotal Support 1.1625 - 1.16351.1540 to 1.1570 War SupportWar and August 2025 Lows 1.14USD/CAD 4H Chart and Technical Levels USD/CAD 4H Chart. April 14, 2026– Source: TradingView USD/CAD had taken quite a lead on its reversal from the higher-part of its 1.3550 to 1.3950 range.Finding buyers at the 1.3750 Pivotal support, the pair already begun its pullback, hence it could be wise to wait for a retest of the higher bound of the 1.38 pivot zone and bear channel (1.3810) to enter shorts.Coming back above the 4H 50-period MA (1.3862) would put back the advantage to the bulls.Levels of interest for USD/CAD TradingResistance Levels1.38 Pivot +/- 150 pips1.3850 Resistance1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance1.3950 Range HighsSupport Levels1.3750 Pivotal Support1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support1.3550 Main 2025 Support1.35 Key Psychological Support GBP/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels GBP/USD 4H Chart. April 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Pound is under similar conditions as the Euro but grabs the upper hand in terms of strength and momentum against the US Dollar.GBP/USD is reaching overbought conditions and could see a decent support retest in coming times after extending without pullbacks.Aggressive buyers will look at the 1.3500 psychological level to catch a wider rally in the pair.More defensive pullback traders will have to wait for a retest of the key pivot, which would only be reached if the tone sours ahead of Thursday's US-Iran talks.Levels of interest for USD/CHF TradingResistance levelsDecember Resistance 1.36 (testing)Resistance 1.37 zone2025 Resistance around 1.381.3850 to 1.39 2021 ResistanceSupport levels1.35 minor supportKey Pivot and Support 1.34 to 1.3440Pivotal Support 1.3250 - 1.331.32 War SupportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Silver (XAG/USD) has broken above a multi-month bearish trendline.The short-term target for bulls is the psychological $80.00 level, with $75.00 confirmed as key support.Overbought momentum indicators on multiple timeframes suggest caution and patience for a pullback to support may be warranted.Daily Timeframe: Confronting a Multi-Month Bearish Trendline The daily chart for Silver (XAG/USD) presents a fascinating technical battleground. After a period of significant volatility earlier in 2026, the price action has stabilized into a recovery phase that is now testing a major structural hurdle.The Trendline Constraint: The primary focus on the daily is the long-term descending trendline (navy blue) originating from the highs of late January. Price is currently attempting a sustained breakout above this line, which has historically acted as a ceiling for upside momentum.Moving Average Confluence: Silver is currently trading above its 200-day MA (yellow). However, the 100-day MA (purple) remains above current prices, with a daily candle close above a sign that the long-term bull trend remains very much intact.Support and Resistance: The psychological level of $75.00 has shifted from resistance to support. To the upside, the next major target for bulls is the 80.00 handle, followed by the technical resistance zone at 82.16.Momentum: The RSI is currently just above the 50 neutral level, suggesting that the bullish momentum may be returning.Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart, April 14, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) H4 Timeframe: Bullish Momentum Gains Traction Moving down to the H4 chart, the bullish narrative becomes more pronounced. We are seeing a classic stair-stepping pattern of higher highs and higher lows.Breakout Confirmation: The H4 chart shows a decisive break above the 75.00 horizontal level. This area is now bolstered by the fact that price continues to hold above immeidate dynamic support provided by the 100-day MA.SMA Alignment: The MAs on the H4 are beginning to tilt to the upside with the 200-day MA just resting above current prices. A break above this 200-day MA at 78.46 will reinforce the bullish narrative and bring 80.00 level and beyond into focus.Indicator Outlook: The RSI on the H4 is holding steady near 59.55, indicating that there is still plenty of room for price appreciation before reaching extreme overbought conditions on this timeframe.Silver (XAG/USD) Four-Hour Chart, April 14, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) H1 Timeframe: Tactical Upside Grind The H1 chart highlights a very clean intraday trend. The metal has spent the last several sessions grinding higher, guided by its short-term moving averages.Immediate Support: The 75.35 level (100-day MA) is the immediate line in the sand for intraday traders. As long as price holds above this level, the "buy the dip" mentality remains the dominant play.Price Targets: The immediate target is the 78.00 psychological level, with a clear path toward the $80.00 resistance if the current momentum persists.Divergence Watch: While the price is making higher highs, the RSI is starting to show signs of exhaustion. This may lead to a minor retracement back toward the 75.00 - 75.50 zone before the next leg higher.Silver (XAG/USD) One-Hour Chart, April 14, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Silver is currently in a "Show Me" phase. The breakout above the daily descending trendline is a significant technical milestone, but it requires a daily close above 77.00 to confirm that the bears have truly lost control.The Bullish Play: Bulls will be looking for a successful retest of the 75.00 area. If price can hold this level on a pullback, the next logical objective is the 80.00 psychological resistance. A break there opens the door for a move toward the 82.00 - 83.00 region.The Bearish Play: For the bears to regain the upper hand, they need to force a "fakeout" scenario where price dives back below the descending trendline and the 75.00 support. A move back below 74.00 would invalidate the current bullish setup and suggest a return to the 70.00 support zone.Key takeaway: The path of least resistance is currently to the upside, but with oscillators reaching overbought levels on multiple timeframes, patience for a "value entry" near support may be rewarded over chasing the current breakout.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 13 Markets are currently caught in an uneasy quietness following a weekend of extremely high-stakes geopolitical drama. The fragile ceasefire was heavily tested over the past 48 hours as initial US-Iran diplomatic talks failed, bringing the region dangerously close to a full restart of the conflict. In a dramatic escalation designed to force Iran's hand at the negotiating table, the US initiated a naval blockade of the highly contested Strait of Hormuz.Despite these aggressive pressure tactics, the Trump administration still appears incredibly eager to secure a proper, lasting peace deal. According to President Trump's recent statements, JD Vance has been doing a "good job" leading the talks, and the administration insists that Iranian officials want to make a deal badly (but everyone knows that the President is indeed under pressure from unpopularity of the recent conflict with midterms approaching). The primary roadblocks remain significant, with the nuclear issue standing out as the major sticking point. This massive geopolitical whiplash was immediately reflected in the energy markets. WTI Crude Oil aggressively gapped to the $105 level on the Globex open as weekend anxieties peaked. Yet, that initial panic did not last long. However, markets caught a much-needed lifeline of positive news when it was signaled that Iran might actually be open to discussing the nuclear issue – with Hormuz remaining a key area of debate.Following the more optimistic headlines from the Trump administration regarding the morning calls from Iranian officials, Oil corrected sharply back below $100, and broader risk assets found fuel to rally – US and EU Stocks close in the green, and Bitcoin just breached $73,000.Since then, however, price action has been characterized by timid movements and a complete lack of continuation. We are currently seeing a frustrating loop of sudden spikes followed by an uneasy calm and choppy range-bound trading. Overall, the geopolitical situation remains at a tense status quo – Traders are keeping their risk tightly managed and will absolutely need to see concrete diplomatic progress before committing to a fully bullish return. Read More:Metals are lost in translation; Risk-assets or Safe-Haven? – Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) & Copper (XCU/USD) OutlookProfit-taking in Stocks ahead of key weekend risk – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookUSD/CAD forms a gigantic range after CA Employment – Will lower Oil prices endanger the CAD?Stock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – April 13, 2026 The mixed Market picture from this morning actually turned quite positive as the session went on, supported by the softer sentiment.Microsoft took the lead, with players now looking to target the recent under-performers (as was seen in Amazon throughout last week). The overall heatmap closed well into a greener status, with Finance and Tech surprisingly dominating the charts.It already is the earnings season for the first quarter, so traders will have to rely on numbers to extend their bullish views (see calendar just below).Key Earnings releases tomorrow (April 14) Nasdaq earnings for Tuesday April 14, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com Markets are already starting to forecast more optimistic results from high capitalization Equities.Tomorrow's earnings will keep a focus on major financial groups including JP Morgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo (including others).After their very decent performance today, make sure to see if this wasn't just a trick from smart players ahead of more fragile earnings (particularly as Private Credit fears persist)Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, April 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Except for EU Stocks, US Bonds and Nasdaq, other global assets have maintained a cautious stance amid recent confusion in narrative.And of course, WTI is playing its own game, bouncing 10% before easing back to a +2% gain only after the better news – What is sure is that assets are not budging much to Crude movements, as long as it doesn't break and hold above $105.The largest victims are the infamous metals, still caught in their own shenanigans (are they trading as safe-havens or risk-assets?)To learn more, don't forget to check out our recent Metals Market update.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, April 13, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Currency Markets are looking quite distorted after chaotic gaps at the globex open.Nevertheless, the Japanese Yen and US Dollars remain at the bottom of the FX performance chart with better sentiment slowly setting.The best performers are the Antipodeans, still extending their leads from the more positive narrative and flows, followed by Europeans – This trend will continue as long as Oil does not fully breakout (and could accelerate if it breaks lower).A look at Economic data releasing over this weekend and Monday's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The IMF meeting is officially starting tomorrow with many Central Bank and key politic speeches that will need to be tracked in order to get updated views on the current situation and local stances.Add to this a quintessential US PPI release (heavy print expected), and Markets should see their fair bouts of information to trade with in the next 24 hours.For the rest, as always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil drops below $100 as US-Iran talks are set to resume on ThursdayAfter gapping higher to $105 at the globex open, anxiety shot up but the negotiations talks helped a significant correction back to $98. Traders have been looking for direction sinceExploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity Energy markets started the week with a violent whip-saw, reminding traders that the geopolitical risk premium is still the ultimate driver of price action.The weekly session kicked off with a massive spike in anxiety after the initial failure of US-Iran talks around the weekend. WTI Crude gapped aggressively higher at the Globex open, flashing up to the $105 handle as geopolitical uncertainty quickly set back. This came particularly prominent from the fact that the Strait of Hormuz did not see any form of improvement in its flows since the truce came in effect last Tuesday. Strait of Hormuz Sea Traffic since February 22 – Source: NYT However, that panic was short-lived.Sentiment shifted violently on the news that the high-stakes US-Iran diplomatic talks are officially set to resume this Thursday after fears of a potential early end to the two-week ceasefire. The prospect of renewed negotiations triggered a massive wave of profit-taking and short-selling, dragging the commodity in a significant correction straight back down to the $98 level.Since that brutal retracement however, the market has hit a wall of indecision, with prices now stuck between $96 and $104 since last Thursday. Traders are currently sitting on their hands, desperately looking for a clear sense of direction as they await Thursday's closed-door developments. The fundamental picture is entirely hostage to the headlines, meaning the charts are more important than ever for mapping out risk.With volatility now stalling, let's explore a few key charts and scenarios for WTI (US) Oil to prepare for potential breakout levels. Read More:US Blockade on Hormuz begins! Wall Street withstands the pressure – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookThe war premium vs. The yield premium: Which force will seize control and drive Gold’s next move?AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Bulls regain control as key psychological level holdsUS Oil Intraday Time-frame AnalysisWTI Daily Chart WTI Oil Daily Chart – April 13, 2026. Source: TradingView Recent daily candles haven't shown anything but a cloudy picture, with numbers of daily up and down gaps, and hesitation inside candles in between (implying dead momentum).The RSI is now back right at the 50.00 neutral level, which also corroborates with a more hesitant picture.A positive for Markets is the fact that WTI Crude has now officially stopped trending higher, at least for now – This is shown by the fact that bulls could not hold the war bull channel after the morning tumble.But to maintain their high stakes rallies, they will need to see crude persist on the longer run below $100.With the daily chart not offering such a clear view, let's take a closer look.WTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels WTI Oil 4H Chart – April 13, 2026. Source: TradingView It only is the second time since the beginning of the War that WTI breaches its 4H 50-period moving average – A sign of further progress but this still fails to translate into more downside ahead.Even the intraday charts aren't displaying any type of clear pattern.When you can't trust individual candlesticks and trendlines, the only technical areas to rely on are supply and resistance levels (Support and resistances).The $98 to $100 zone acts as a significant magnet for action and will retain this role as long as the situation remains unclear.Breaking $98 would point to $93 and form a new range in this area.Bouncing above $100 would on the other hand point to $106 and form an upper range in this zone.These levels are expected to remain until a proper peace deal is reached.WTI Technical Levels:Resistance Levels4H 50-period MA (~$103.96)$106 to $108 June 2022 Resistance$110 psychological level2022 and War highs $117 to $120Support Levels$98 to $100 Major Pivot (testing)War Support Pivotal $93.00 to $95$87 to $90 mini-Support (4H 200-period MA)2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80Pre-War Support $63.80 to $64WTI 1H Chart and Technical Levels WTI Oil 1H Chart – April 13, 2026. Source: TradingView Oil is now stuck at the $98 level as traders await for further signals.A sign of hesitancy that points to more rangebound action ahead is the fact that the RSI is already showing signs of rebounding close to overbought levels.However, this could only point to a thinner $2 range to $100 as participants are still scrambling for further news.The action could be stuck for the time being, but one important region to look at is Lebanon, with direct Israel-Lebanon talks supposed to start tomorrow (and will be of great assistance to any peace deal). Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.