The dollar is down across the board again today and it's been a tough week so far to start the new month. GBP/USD is leading the charge today, moving up by 0.5% to 1.3285 - its highest in five weeks. But if anything, do keep a close watch on EUR/USD as it nudges back up to 1.1660 currently. The pair is starting to test a run above its 100-day moving average (red line) of 1.1643, a key level that has held back the upside bounces since later October.Besides that, USD/CAD is also dribbling lower under 1.4000 to close in on its own key daily moving averages at 1.3896-15. Meanwhile, AUD/USD is up 0.4% today to 0.6586 - its highest since 30 October in breaking the November high of 0.6580.Putting the charts together, the dollar looks poised to be tested further to the downside given the momentum to start December trading. From this week:Seasonal patterns, fundamentals point to dollar selling in December - Credit AgricoleGoldman Sachs eyes weaker dollar going into the turn of the year This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The Indian Rupee has been the worst performing Asian currency this year amid several negative drivers. The RBI started to cut interest rates this year and delivered an even bigger than expected 50 bps cut in June amid below-target inflation. But the main driver has been the US tariff policy.In the first half of the year, the INR benefited from expectations that companies would move manufacturing to India from China amid Trump's trade war. We had also many positive rumors that India would have been the first coutnry to seal a deal with the US.Unfortunately, things went in the opposite way. Not only India failed to reach a deal with the US, but Trump also imposed 50% tariffs on the country including a 25% penalty for buying Russian oil. This escalation eventually led to a selloff in the Indian Rupee that is still ongoing today.The RBI recently tried to stop the quick depreciation around USD/INR 88.80 and intervened more forcefully in November. But as it always happens when the fundamentals remain against a currency, the INR resumed its fall and once it broke above the 88.80 level, the momentum increased as the market knew at that point that the RBI folded.The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) started its 3-day monetary policy meeting today and will release the decision on Friday. According to a Reuters poll, the central bank is expected to cut the repo rate by 25 bps as inflation fell to a record low in October to 0.25%, far below the RBI's 4% target. As a reminder, the RBI targets 4% headline inflation with a +/-2% tolerance band (2%-6%). What makes it a harder call is that growth has also surprised to the upside. The RBI will have to decide what to focus on.In case the central bank holds the repo rate steady, we could see the INR gain in the short-term, but the focus will then shift to their forward guidance and whether they change their stance from neutral back to accomodative.In the bigger picture, the INR will continue to weaken against the USD given the structural economic differences, but in the short-term, the focus will remain mainly on the US-India trade talks. A deal and a lowering of US tariff rates should give the Indian Rupee a solid boost. Until then, the INR will likely remain a sell on rallies. The USD part of the equation is of course another thing to keep an eye on. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps next week but what the market will focus on is their forward guidance. Before Fed's Williams December cut endorsement, I would have bet on a dovish hold, which would have continued to put pressure on the greenback. Now, there is a good chance that the Fed delivers a hawkish cut, which could give the US dollar another boost. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior -0.1%If you take energy prices (+0.1%) out of the equation, then euro area producer prices were stable on the month. The breakdown shows an increase in prices for intermediate goods (+0.1%), capital goods (+0.1%), and durable consumer goods (+0.1%). That is offset by a decline in prices for non-durable consumer goods (-0.2%). This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 52.3Final Composite PMI 51.2 vs 50.5 prelimPrior 52.2Key findings:Marginal expansion of business activity in November Fastest fall in employment since February Prices charged inflation lowest since January 2021Comment:Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: "November data revealed an abrupt end to the steady improvement in order books seen since the summer. Unfavourable demand conditions were signalled in both domestic and export markets. Lower workloads led to a renewed slowdown in business activity growth across the UK service economy, with the latest expansion much softer than the post-pandemic trend. Moreover, staffing numbers were trimmed to the greatest extent since February. "Survey respondents widely commented on business challenges linked to fragile client confidence, heightened risk aversion and elevated policy uncertainty in the run up to the Budget. Many firms noted that major spending decisions had been delayed, while some also cited long-term growth headwinds from subdued investment spending. "Intensifying price competition at home and abroad, combined with weal sales pipelines, contributed to an erosion of margins across the service economy. Input cost inflation accelerated during November, mostly driven by higher salary payments, but prices charged by service sector firms increased at the slowest pace for nearly five years." This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior 53.0Composite PMI 52.8 vs 52.4 prelimPrior 52.5Better revisions in both France and Germany sees the Eurozone readings above for both the services and composite prints come in at fresh 30-month highs. That points to a relatively solid economic expansion in the region in looking to end the year, which will give the ECB much breathing room in justifying the pause to rate cuts. HCOB notes that:“The service sector in the eurozone is showing clear signs of recovery. The strong performance in the service sector was even enough to more than offset the weakness in the manufacturing sector, meaning that economic output in the eurozone grew slightly faster in November than in the previous month. We therefore expect the growth rate in the final quarter of the year to show a slight acceleration. “The eurozone services sector is now growing for the sixth month in a row and at its fastest pace since May 2023. At 53.6, the index level is far from a boom in historical terms, which tends to start in the high 50s. However, it is fair to say that performance is relatively robust. The geographical breadth of the recovery supports this assessment. For the coming year, we expect positive stimulus from Germany's expansionary fiscal policy and Spain's sustained high economic growth. In France, the fragile political situation argues against increasing momentum. In Italy, there is still hope for effects from the EU Next Generation funds, but these are likely to be felt primarily in the construction industry and only indirectly by service providers. “The inflation rate in the service sector, which the ECB is monitoring with particular attention, has weakened significantly again in terms of sales prices. At the same time, cost inflation is higher, which is likely to be related to wage growth that is slowing but still above average. All in all, the ECB is likely to feel supported in its clearly communicated line of leaving interest rates unchanged at the upcoming central bank meeting.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior54.6Final Composite PMI 52.4 vs 52.1 prelimPrior 53.9Key findings:Further, albeit slower, increases in new work and employmentComment:Commenting on the PMI data, Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The service sector is likely to keep Germany's growth just above zero in the fourth quarter. However, momentum in this sector slowed in November. One reason for this is likely to be that the consumption-sensitive service sector is suffering from the cautious spending behaviour of households. The fact that the recession in the manufacturing sector deepened again in November, as signalled by the PMI, thereby also affecting industry-related service companies, is not helpful either. Conversely, however, it can also be said that service providers are proving to be relatively resilient in the face of the difficult environment. “The continued growth in new business suggests that business activity in the service sector will also grow in the last month of the year. For the coming year, the expansionary fiscal policy, which is also likely to be accompanied by higher investment volumes, should have positive spillover effects on the service sector. The very modest growth of this sector this year, estimated at 0.4 percent, based on official figures for the first three quarters of the year, should therefore accelerate significantly to over 1 percent in the coming year. “On the price front, the good news is that cost inflation among service providers has eased somewhat. However, companies were obviously forced to pass on the lower inflationary pressure to their customers, as sales prices also rose at a slower rate. This shows that companies were unable to increase their profit margins.” This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior 48.0Composite PMI 50.4 vs 49.9 prelimPrior 47.7Demand conditions are seen picking up, helping to bolster French services activity in November. Of note, this saw the first monthly expansion in new business since August 2024. Meanwhile, price pressures were rather benign so that isn't going to do much to impact the ECB outlook. HCOB notes that:"Finally, some positive news. For the first time in over a year, output in France’s private sector has increased. In November, the Composite PMI climbed back above the growth threshold, driven by a notable rebound in services business activity. However, manufacturing remains a drag on overall performance, posting its steepest fall in nine months and widening the gap between the two sectors. "The improvement in services is encouraging, yet it remains to be seen whether this is just a one-off uptick or the start of a sustained recovery. The coming months will provide clarity. At least, order intakes are moving in the right direction, with domestic demand improving and foreign orders stabilising. "Against this backdrop, business expectations remained cautious and at a relatively low level, though they improved in November. If the government manages to reach a budget compromise and reduce political uncertainty, household consumption and business investment could benefit from a more stable policy environment. "The lingering weakness in services is reflected in employment and outstanding business volumes. After months of subdued activity, incomplete work volumes continue to shrink, prompting companies to halt recent hiring trends and slightly reduce headcount. Given developments in the past months, employment growth is likely to remain modest in the near term. "Price dynamics are broadly consistent with pre-COVID patterns, although the PMI for output prices slipped below the 50- mark amid competitive pressures, leading some firms to cut prices." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 54.0Composite PMI 53.8 vs 53.2 expectedPrior 53.1Key findings:Rate of growth in new business reaches 19-month highStrongest uplift in activity since April 2023 Inflationary pressures buildComment:Commenting on the PMI data, Nils Müller, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Italy’s service sector gained traction in November, as the HCOB Business Activity Index climbed to 55.0 from 54.0 in October, marking the sharpest rise in over two-and-a-half years. This momentum was underpinned by a surge in new business, which grew at its fastest pace since mid-2024, driven by successful client acquisition. Export orders, however, slipped back into contraction, with some firms reporting persistent global headwinds and weakness in the automotive sector. “Hiring continued for a tenth consecutive month, though job creation remained marginal, it aligned with the long-run trend. Firms reported some spare capacity, as backlogs declined slightly. On the pricing front, inflationary pressures intensified in November, with input cost inflation rising to the steepest rate since June, fuelled by higher wages and energy expenses. At the same time, service providers raised their charges to partially offset cost burdens. “Expectations for the year ahead improved to a four-month high, supported by anticipated investment and new customer wins, even if confidence remained below historical norms amid uncertainty over international demand and the implementation of AI. “The buoyant services performance lifted overall private sector growth. The HCOB Italy Composite PMI rose to 53.8 from 53.1 in October, its highest reading since April 2023. Manufacturing output contributed only modestly to growth, leaving services as the clear engine of expansion. With demand strengthening and confidence improving, Italy’s economy enters year-end on firmer footing, though inflation and subdued international demand remain key risks. Against this backdrop, we expect Italian GDP to grow by 0.5% year-on-year in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026.” This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The report cites suggestions from most Chinese government advisers, saying that they continue to favour a growth target of around 5% for 2026. That's the same target this year, although a minority camp in Beijing do want to propose a slightly lower range of 4.5% to 5.0% growth instead.China's top policymakers will come together later this month at the Central Economic Work Conference to discuss the matter and endorse a growth target to follow for 2026. However, that target will not be announced publicly until the annual parliamentary meeting session in March.One of the advisers told Reuters that "we should set ‌a target of around 5% for 2026, the first year of the 15th five-year plan". Adding that "there will be certainly challenges in achieving this, but there is room to maneuver with both fiscal and monetary policy".Amid the trade war with the US, expect China to want to promote a more bullish outlook for the sake of the optics here. I wouldn't expect Beijing to relent in "showing weakness" on this front. Anyway, China can put out whatever number they want and at the end of the day that will be it regardless of what really happens. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 56.6Composite PMI 55.1Prior 56.0Spain's services sector continues to post strong growth in November driven mostly by domestic demand. Employment conditions are also holding up while the outlook continues to stay more positive, so it is still one of the brighter spots in Europe. HCOB notes that:“Spain’s economy remains robust, and GDP is likely to grow strongly in the fourth quarter, as suggested by the HCOB PMI data for October and November. In November, the HCOB Composite PMI showed that the private sector continued to expand at a solid pace, with services outperforming manufacturing. “Order book developments in the services sector remain healthy, though momentum has eased slightly. This in part is driven by some underlying weakness in international trade which fell in November for the first time in five months. “Demand for additional staff in services is rising. High capacity utilisation means companies are struggling to keep up with workloads. Positive and stable business expectations create an environment where firms are confident about hiring new employees. “The trend in selling prices lost some momentum in November, but cost inflation remains elevated. Cost pressures stem mainly from energy and wages, as shown by anecdotal evidence. Output prices in contrast rose at the slowest pace this year. Companies passed on higher costs to customers while partly offering discounts to stimulate demand. All in all, the relatively high price indices remain a concern, especially without any alleviation of wage pressures.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.1%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX +0.8%Italy FTSE MIB +0.4%The risk mood continues to keep steadier with S&P 500 futures also seen up 0.2% on the day. That's all keeping the broader market mood in good spirits especially when paired with the rebound in cryptocurrencies yesterday, as Bitcoin now climbs back up to above $93,000. For the day ahead, the US ADP employment change will be the key risk event on the economic calendar. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.1%Core CPI +0.4% y/yPrior +0.5%The struggle continues for the Swiss economy with headline annual inflation hitting 0% again. Core annual inflation is also seen easing further in November, now down to 0.4%. The clock continues to tick down as the SNB contemplates where they want to draw the line before reintroducing negative rates again. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

In the European session, the main highlight is the November Swiss CPI report. The headline CPI Y/Y is expected at 0.1% vs 0.1% prior. The data is not going to change anything for the SNB as they've repeated many times that the bar for negative rates is very high. They will likely need a clear negative shock in the economy to go back into NIRP (negative interest rate policy). The Swiss Core CPI Y/Y was 0.5% in October. We will also get the final PMI readings for the UK and the major Eurozone economies. The final PMIs are rarely market-moving as the market focuses mostly on the flash data as it always looks to price new and fresh information. In the American session, we have the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. The ADP is expected at 10K vs 42K prior. The weekly ADP data has been coming out on the softer side with the latest reading showing -13,500 job cuts over the four weeks ending November 8, 2025. The data is unlikely to change anything at this point with the FOMC decision coming up next week but if we were to get big deviations, then we could see some notable reaction.The US ISM Services PMI is expected at 52.0 vs 52.4 prior. The S&P Global PMI showed the services sector improving to a 4-month high with generally upbeat commentary, although price pressures were seen intensifying. Central bank speakers:08:30 GMT/03:30 ET - ECB President Lagarde (neutral - voter)10:30 GMT/05:30 ET - ECB's Lane (neutral - voter)13:30 GMT/08:30 ET - ECB President Lagarde (neutral - voter)17:00 GMT/12:00 ET - BoE's Mann (hawkish - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

German DAX futures +0.2%French CAC 40 futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.1%This follows from the mostly better performance yesterday, with only the CAC 40 index closing lower. The steadier mood in Wall Street is also helping, with US futures also marked higher as we get the day going. S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% still as tech shares are hoping to add to the gains from yesterday after a slight decline on Monday. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs makes a case that the slow and gradual release of delayed US economic data should "“reveal a softer run rate for the economy, particularly the labor market, that will clear the way for more policy easing and a weaker dollar from here to the end of the year". Adding that early signs should point towards softer momentum, even if so far what we're seeing in the data remains lagged - keeping FX volatility relatively subdued in general.Besides that, a more stable risk sentiment globally and Fed rate cut expectations will just add to headwinds for the dollar in this period. And then there's also other drivers such as stronger intervention warnings by Tokyo in capping USD/JPY upside, the GBP not wilting after the more benign UK budget, and renewed strength in the CNY - all being supportive factors for a softer dollar across the board.In tying to the same argument, Credit Agricole pointed to a multitude of different factors in why the dollar should be weaker through year-end. From yesterday: Seasonal patterns, fundamentals point to dollar selling in December - Credit Agricole This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Australia Q3 GDP +0.4% q/q vs +0.7% expectedRBA's Bullock: Inflation expectations are still anchoredRBA's Bullock: Inflation has surprised on the upsideIndia rupee falls to record low, crosses 90 per US dollarTrump cancels interviews, zeroes in on Fed chair candidate -- reportChina RatingDog general services PMI 52.1 vs 52.6 priorJapan November S&P Global final services PMI 53.2 vs 53.1 priorTrump tweets that he declares Biden pardons null and voidTrump said he had a very productive call with LulaWhat we learned from the Tennessee House special electionUS private oil inventory data shows sizeable builds in crude, gasoline and distillatesMarkets:Gold up $12 to $4219WTI crude oil up 7 cents to $58.71Nikkei up 1.6%S&P 500 futures up 0.2%AUD leads, CAD lagsA risk on mood has crept into markets, in part due to more smoke around a dovish Fed chair. In terms of economic data, the softer GDP number initially weighed on AUD but it quickly rebounded and is now leading the way. Some of that might be a closer look at the hotter inflation metrics in the GDP report and the hawkish comments from Bullock, along with the positive risk mood. The Chinese data was soft and that could stoke fresh talk of stimulus focused on consumers. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Five years ago, barriers to entry in the proprietary trading sector were nonexistent. A generic website and a white-label trading platform were all an operator needed to solicit retail clients. That era has ended. The sector now faces significant scrutiny from global financial watchdogs. This pressure forces firms to professionalise their operations or exit the market entirely.Retail traders often focused solely on profit splits or leverage limits in the past. Today, they ask different questions. They want to know where a firm is domiciled. They ask about audit trails. They scrutinise payout histories. This behavioural shift aligns with a broader move towards institutional maturity. Capital and governance regimes are under review in jurisdictions like the European Union. These reviews signal that proprietary trading is evolving into a space with high governance expectations.Ultimate Traders identified this trajectory early. The firm built its model on the premise that regulatory alignment is inevitable. It focused on operational transparency before marketing reach. This approach anticipates a market where compliance acts as the primary filter for long-term viability.Transparency replacing marketing claimsTrust in financial services relies on predictability. Traders need to know exactly how a firm evaluates performance. Vague terms and hidden clauses destroy confidence. Ultimate Traders integrates clear rule-based structures to counter this issue. The firm publishes unambiguous challenge terms and offers visible payout consistency. It maintains open-ended evaluation timing rather than imposing arbitrary deadlines.Marketing campaigns often promise financial freedom. Governance focuses on the mechanics of the relationship between the trader and the firm. A sustainable prop firm must operate like a financial institution rather than a gaming platform. This means clear dispute resolution processes must exist. It means risk controls must be applied consistently across all accounts.Data supports this approach. Firms that publish their operational guidelines attract a higher calibre of talent. Professional traders avoid platforms where the rules change mid-game. They seek partners that offer stability. Ultimate Traders aligns with these expectations by prioritising clarity over aggressive promotional tactics.The regulatory reality checkGlobal frameworks are tightening. The European Union is expanding license obligations under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (MiFID II). This directive covers more types of proprietary trading activities than before. It brings rigorous reporting requirements and demands greater transparency regarding execution quality and conflicts of interest.Firms operating in the Middle East face similar changes. The Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) continues to refine its frameworks for financial entities. Prop firms expanding into these regions must understand cross-border implications. They cannot rely on a single offshore licence to cover global operations.Surveys indicate that firms in the EU already spend significantly more senior management time on regulatory compliance than their US counterparts. This is not an administrative bloat but a survival strategy. Operational discipline defines the winners in a regulated environment. Ultimate Traders prepares for these frameworks to ensure accessibility remains intact while safety standards rise.Governance attracts institutional interestRetail traders are not the only audience watching these developments. Institutional partners and technology providers assess the risk profile of prop firms before signing contracts. A firm with a reputation for loose compliance is a liability. Banks and liquidity providers avoid entities that lack robust Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) protocols.Ultimate Traders positions itself as a partner for global growth. Strong governance ensures the firm can maintain relationships with top-tier technology providers. This benefits the end user. It guarantees platform stability and ensures better execution speeds. It protects the ecosystem from the abrupt shutdowns that plagued the industry in previous years.Compliance culture equals brand longevity. Responsible growth is the next evolution of the prop trading model. Firms that ignore this reality will struggle to secure the partnerships necessary to scale. Those who embrace it will define the standards for the next decade.A safer environment for talentThe ultimate beneficiary of this shift is the trader. A regulated and transparent environment levels the playing field. It removes the fear that a firm might disappear overnight. It allows traders to focus on their strategies rather than the solvency of their funding partner.Ultimate Traders demonstrates how this model works in practice. The firm does not sell a dream. It offers a professional environment for evaluation and funding. This distinction matters. It separates serious operators from opportunistic entrants.The industry is moving away from quick wins. It is moving toward sustainable operations. Ultimate Traders stands at the forefront of this transition. The firm invites market participants to examine its governance-driven approach at the company’s website. This is not just about following rules. It is about building a business that lasts. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the board for today, with the full list seen below.As such, traders will have little to work with in the session ahead in waiting for the US ADP employment data to come later in the day. The risk mood is keeping calmer after the steadier showing in Wall Street overnight, so that will also help to permeate a more stable market mood as we get into European trading.I wouldn't expect too much volatility in major currencies with the dollar keeping just slightly softer since yesterday.There will be much larger expiries to focus on tomorrow, in particular huge ones for EUR/USD between 1.1550 through to 1.1675. So, just be mindful of that.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The precious metal is up slightly again today by 0.4% to $4,222 but it's not signifying much when you look at the charts. Gold had been stuck in a bit of a flag/wedge in November before breaking free from that last Friday. But since then, the upside move hasn't really took flight. The daily chart shows that the November high of $4,245 is helping to keep things in check for the time being.While buyers have managed to exert control on the break of the technical flag/wedge, they still haven't quite gathered full control in achieving the next leg higher. The break of the $4,245 mark is much needed to secure that in order to try and make another attempt of the highs near $4,400 in October.So, what's next for gold?The seasonality chart dictates that December and January have typically been strong months for gold, in particular the latter. But in recent years, January's strength seems to be frontrun in December although that wasn't quite the case in 2024. Before that, gold has been on a tear in posting seven straight years of monthly gains in December stretching all the way back to 2017.So while there are fundamental and technical considerations to be aware of, let's not forget that gold has also typically enjoyed strong seasonal showings during December and January more often than not in the past 20 years. The simple argument might suffice in saying that the precious metal should see a better performance as we look to the turn of the year. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The positive momentum from Tuesday's 0.2% gain in the cash S&P 500 has carried over into a further 0.2% gain in futures, or 15 points. it was tech stocks that lifted the market on Tuesday led by Intel, Booking.com and Qualcomm. Nvidia was very strong early but faded to a 0.8% gain. Looking at the S&P 500 chart, it looks like it could make a break to the upside but now is a critical moment. OpenAI is teasing another model that's better than Gemini and that kind of thing could keep the market excited about AI. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.