CPI Morning is sending surprising signals around the MarketsTraders could be preparing for more volatile events, potentially including US interventions in Iran.Volatility is a bit constrained, but a tense atmosphere can be felt. Markets just received a constructive CPI report: no upside surprises and a relatively cool year-over-year print below 3% (Core CPI at 2.6%!). There is no base effect distortion here but decent stability in inflation.You can look at the details of the morning release right here.By the textbook, the decent report should have triggered a continuation of the "Debasement Trade" (metals and stocks rallying while the Dollar slips).The reality, however, is unfolding quite differently.It seems traders are looking right past the inflation data to focus on other, potentially more volatile catalysts.Let's take a look around the Market by diving into key performers around asset classes (US Dollar, Silver, Dow Jones, Bitcoin and WTI Oil). Read More:Dow Jones (DJIA) Forecast: Eyeing new all-time high as banks’ earnings loomChart Alert: USD/JPY breaking 158.80 key resistance as US CPI looms with intervention riskBitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and SOL Rebound Strongly to Start 2026 – Crypto OverviewUS Dollar Rallies Back zoom_out_map Dollar Index 30M – January 13, 2026. Source: TradingView After an initial knee-jerk drop, the Greenback staged a surprising recovery to past week highs. The theme here goes beyond the CPI; participants could be pricing in a potential Iran intervention, driving safe-haven flows back into the Dollar.Silver Explodes to $89 (New ATH) while Other Metals are Asleep zoom_out_map A look at the daily performance in Metals, January 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView XAG = Silver, XAU = Gold, XCU = Copper, XPT = Platinum, XPD = Palladium XAG/USD has exploded compared while most metals are flat or down, Silver is rising toward $90 (the move is calming slightly as we speak). This bizarre divergence suggests potential positioning issues—Are some big players caught short?By the way, the CME just changed their margins requirements to a percentage of the notional value compared to the traditional value in an attempt to restrict ongoing volatility. zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) 30M – January 13, 2026. Source: TradingView Stocks Retreat from their Relative Highs zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 30M – January 13, 2026. Source: TradingView Stocks, which might have been expected to celebrate the decent CPI report, are painting a mostly red picture. The drops aren't massive, but they reflect a shift in momentum. The "sell-the-news" reaction could be prompting profit-taking after the blistering start to 2026. zoom_out_map Current US Stock Market Heatmap (11:57) – Source: TradingView Tech and Microprocessors are actually leading the Markets while the rest of the picture is red. Nasdaq just turned slightly positive as I am writing this.Bitcoin is rallying back – Crossing above its 50-Day MA zoom_out_map Bitcoin 30M Chart – January 13, 2026. Source: TradingView Bitcoin is the morning's major surprise, shining bright while traditional risk assets fade. We will be breaking down the details of this move throughout the afternoon so stay in touch!Oil is breaking above $60 zoom_out_map WTI Oil 30M Chart – January 13, 2026. Source: TradingView WTI is reclaiming $60, ignoring the CPI to focus entirely on the Iranian Revolts. With EU and US administrations canceling planned meetings and even banning Iranian officials altogether, the market is sensing that a US intervention is imminent. A significant risk premium is being priced back in.I hope some of you read our preview for Oil for 2026 – More could be coming if things turn sour!Keep a close eye on geopolitical developments; they, rather than economic data, are now the primary drivers of today's market volatility.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Rotation favours DJIA: Sector rotation since late December has driven the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 to outperform the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, reinforcing near-term relative strength in the DJIA.Bank earnings are the catalyst: With financials sector making up around 28% of the DJIA and heavyweights like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan reporting, Q4 bank earnings could amplify volatility and act as the next directional trigger.Bullish technical structure intact: The US Wall Street 30 CFD index remains in a rising channel above key moving averages, with momentum improving; a break above the current all-time high opens the door to further upside, while 49,250/49,096 is the key support to defend. Since late December 2025, a clear sector rotation has taken hold in the US equity market, with former laggards—the Dow Jones Industrial Average and small-cap Russell 2000 outperforming AI-heavy mega-cap technology stocks that dominate the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500.Year-to-date as of 12 January 2026, the Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have gained 6.2% and 3.2% respectively, decisively outpacing the S&P 500 (+1.9%) and Nasdaq 100 (+2.1%) (see Fig. 1). zoom_out_map Fig. 1: YTD performance of major global stock indices as of 12 Jan 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) Key US financials’ earnings are the current key drivers for the DJIA This week, several major US financial institutions will report their Q4 2025 earnings results: JPMorgan (Tuesday, January 13), Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo (Wednesday, January 14), and Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock (Thursday, January 15).The US financial sector, with a weightage of around 28%, is the largest weighted component in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).In addition, the top price-weighted component stock in the DJIA is Goldman Sachs, with a weight of around 11.8%, and another major US financial institution, JPMorgan, ranks in the 10th spot in the DJIA with a weight of 4%.Hence, the earnings release of the aforementioned US financial institutions may trigger a more volatile movement in the Dow Jones Industrial Average for this week.Let’s now dissect the movement of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) from a technical analysis perspective.Evolving into an accelerating bullish trend zoom_out_map Fig. 2: US Wall Street 30 CFD index minor trend as of 13 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Ratios of S&P Financials & S&P Banks ETFs over S&P 500 ETF as of 12 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The price actions of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index have evolved into a steeper minor ascending channel after it hit a low of 47,875 on 2 January 2026, and it continues to trade above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages at the time of writing (see Fig. 2).In conjunction, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bullish breakout on Monday, 12 January 2026, above a parallel descending trendline resistance, and has not reached an extreme overbought condition.These observations suggest that the US Wall Street 30 CFD index is likely in the process of transitioning into a potential bullish acceleration sequence within its medium-term uptrend phase that has remained intact since the 23 May 2025 low.Tthe ratio charts of the S&P Financials exchange-traded fund (ETF) and the SPDR S&P Bank ETF over the S&P 500 ETF have traded above their respective 50-day moving averages decisively in November and December, which suggests a potential medium-term outperformance of US banks (see Fig. 3).Watch the 49,250/49,096 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above 49,606 (current all-time high area) sees the next intermediate resistances coming in at 49,805/49,840 and 50,265/50,335 (upper boundary of the minor ascending channel and Fibonacci extension).However, failure to hold at 49,250/49,096 negates the bullish tone for another round of minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate supports at 48,870/48,770 (close to the 20-day moving average), and 48,480. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (12/01/2026): In today's episode, Kelvin and Jonny continue to unpack the poor US labour data from Friday and the knock-on effects for the Federal Reserve, which is currently predicted to cut rates twice in 2026. Otherwise, we discuss the recently announced criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell over building renovations and growing politcal tension in Iran. Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Great British Pound has found support of a key confluence area around the 1.3380 handle The move has come as the US Dollar facing a selloff over Fed independence fearsPowell vs Trump 2.0 Over the weekend, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced that the Justice Department has served the central bank with legal orders (subpoenas) and is threatening criminal charges.Powell claims this is part of a larger campaign by the White House to pressure the bank. He explicitly stated that these threats are a punishment because the Fed refused to follow President Trump's demands to lower interest rates, choosing instead to make decisions based on what is best for the public.While President Trump denies knowing anything about the investigation, he has a long history of attacking Powell for not cutting rates as quickly as he wants. This move has brought Fed independence fears to the forefront once more. As a result the US Dollar struggled for the majority of the day.The DXY does however face a crucial support test which may prove a tough nut to crack around the 98.70 handle.US Dollar Index Daily Chart, January 12, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Catalysts Ahead with US Inflation & UK GDP Data Traders are closely watching the UK's economic growth report on Thursday but before that tomorrow's US inflation report is expected to be higher than most experts predict (rising 0.4%). Investors are feeling calmer about the American job market after the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4% on Friday, even though the underlying details aren't entirely positive.Finally, the dollar was expected to get a boost from the US Supreme Court, which is likely to rule against President Trump's tariffs sometime between Tuesday and Thursday. If not the Dollar may remain under pressure with the next catalyst likely to be Thursday UK GDP release. zoom_out_map zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - GBP/USD From a technical perspective, GBP/USD did bounce off a key confluence area around the 1.3380 zone.This area plays host to the 100 and 200-day MAs while also being a key area of support and resistance in the past.The move today was further helped by fundamentals around the US dollar which has experienced a selloff.The bullish move has also seen GBP/USD bounce off the 50 level on the period-14 RSI. This hints at bullish momentum.On the upside cable does face some significant hurdles as well with the 1.3500 handle before the recent highs at 1.3568 comes into focus.GBP/USD Daily Chart, January 12, 2026 zoom_out_map Source:TradingView.com Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Donald Trump is a stubborn President, to say the least. Just when markets were enjoying a few relaxing months of silence regarding Fed independence, the Administration has struck again.Over the weekend, the Department of Justice opened a formal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, regarding statements made during his recent Senate Testimony.It is painfully easy to read between the lines here. This appears to be a political masquerade—a manufactured pretext to fire Powell before his term officially concludes.The impatience seems unjustified, given that his tenure ends in May 2026 and markets are already expecting an announcement on his successor by the end of this month.In a special address delivered yesterday evening, Chair Powell fired back, significantly upping his tone regarding the Federal Reserve's stance against politicized interference.The Verdict: Market Chaos. zoom_out_map Dollar Index 1H Chart. January 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is plummeting to start the week and stocks are in the red. On the other hand, keeping with the dominant trend of the past year, Metals are shining bright.Acting as the preferred safe haven—displacing even the Yen and the now-compromised US Treasuries—precious metals have shot through the roof in early trading.This political theater highlights a structural shift: Central Banks and investors are aggressively diversifying away from an overdependence on US assets as their traditionally stable reputation erodes.Gold has now solidified its place as the largest reserve asset for central banks, with China leading a global diversification charge. zoom_out_map Gold and US Dollar as Central Bank Reserves – Courtesy of Vaulted.com With Silver breaking $85 and Gold comfortably trading above its previous peak ($4,600+), the message is clear: Metals are not looking to ease their rally anytime soon.The buying frenzy is broad-based, with Platinum, Palladium, Copper, and Aluminum all chasing new monthly or yearly highs as we speak.Let's dive right into a two-timeframe intraday analysis for Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to see where these flows could be heading. Read More:Markets Today: Safe Havens Benefit on Trump-Fed Feud, Silver Gains 5% as Gold Breaches $4600/oz. What Comes Next?CPI is back on time – Markets Weekly OutlookDecember US Jobs Report Shows Weaker HiringGold (XAU/USD) Daily and 2H ChartsDaily Chart zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, January 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView After the past week close above $4,500, technicals went right ahead to magnify the return of even-more bullish fundamentals for the yellow metal.Since August, the rally hadn't seen many retracements, but after the late-December correction, a strong upward Channel is forming, with the latest bounce being used by bulls to reach the current all-time highs.Easily blasing beyond the Weekly divergence noted last week. Currently at $4,630 and running, Gold will face a small technical resistance at $4,666, from a key Fibonacci projection (1.618 from 2023 Lows to mid-2025 levels).If bulls breach the level, there won't be much until $5,000 which coincides with the top of the Channel.Let's take a closer look.2H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 2H Chart, January 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView Forming a tight bull channel on the intraday timeframe, nothing but some overbought conditions seem to be stopping the rally in Gold.Reaching session highs at $4,630, the frantic buying is stalling a bit.For pullbacks, aggressive pullback buying could take place at $4,590 (intraday channel lows).Breaking the steep session channel would point to a retest of the previous All-Time highs around $4,550.Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD) trading:Resistance Levels$4,630 Current session and all-time High$4,660 to $4,670 Potential ResistancePotential Mini-Resistance 2 $4,700 to $4,720Top of Daily Channel and Psychological Level $5,000Support LevelsIntraday Channel lows $4,590Previous ATH Pivot (as Support) $4,500 to $4,550Session Lows Previous ATH Pivot (as Support) $4,500 to $4,550Major Intraday Support $4,400 and 4H 50-MADecember 31 Mini-Support Support $4,280Weekly Major Pivot $3,950 to $4,000Silver (XAG/USD) Daily and 2H ChartsDaily Chart zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) Weekly Chart, January 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView The action in XAG/USD is starting now looking insane.Silver is leading its peers yet again in today's action, up around 8% in a huge bullish candle in today's action, easily breaching beyond the $85 psychological level, leaving more technical upside to the rally.Also forming a Daily Channel, no resistance is emerging before the $88 to $89 Fibonacci Area. Except for any major fundamental change (like world peace or a return of Fed Hikes), nothing is looking to stop the run.Let's see what intraday charts are telling us.2H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) 2H Chart, January 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView With the action now stalling a bit after the tumultuous overnight/morning action, Silver traders will be looking at two technical elements:Whether bulls manage to fully break above the Sideways Channel (testing a breakout)Or follow the steep Tight Bull Channel from the current session, pointing to even more aggressive action.Breaking below this one hints at a retest of the $80.00 Momentum Pivot.Maintaining the momentum would easily guide the action to $88 and potentially more.To put things into perspective, SIlver is up 77% since Williams comments hinted at a December Fed Cut!Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD) trading:Resistance Levels:$86.23 Session and All-Time HighsPotential Mini-Resistance 1 $87 to $89Potential Mini-Resistance and Psychological Level 2 $90 to $92Support Levels:$82 to $84 Previous ATH Pivot (As support)$80.00 Momentum Pivot$75 to $77 Minor Support and Channel lowsDecember 31 Lows $70.00Pre-FOMC Major Support $58.00 to $60 and 50-Day MASafe Trades and a Successful Week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The December US employment report confirmed a clear slowdown in hiring that had been visible throughout the past year. Data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that nonfarm payrolls increased by just 50,000 in December, well below market expectations of 70,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate edged down slightly to 4.4%. zoom_out_map NonFarm Payrolls monthly change (in thousands), source: Bloomberg While the decline in unemployment may suggest stability in the labor market, the details of the report point to a more complex picture.Uneven Hiring Across SectorsJob growth was concentrated mainly in leisure and hospitality as well as health care. These industries accounted for the majority of new jobs both in December and throughout 2025. At the same time, five of the eleven major sectors of the economy recorded declines in employment, including retail trade, construction, and manufacturing.Private-sector employers added only 37,000 jobs, a fraction of the gains seen in the same period a year earlier.Data Revisions and a Weak Annual BalanceIn addition, payroll figures for October and November were revised down by a combined 76,000 jobs, further weakening the picture of labor market momentum. For the full year 2025, employment rose by just 584,000, making it the weakest year for job creation since 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic triggered a sharp collapse in the labor market.Labor Force Participation and Long-Term UnemploymentThe labor force participation rate slipped to 62.4%, while the share of workers aged 25 to 54 — known as prime-age workers — remained steady. Meanwhile, the number of long-term unemployed people, defined as those out of work for 27 weeks or more, rose by nearly 400,000 in 2025, the largest annual increase since the pandemic.The number of people working part time for economic reasons also increased sharply, highlighting growing uncertainty among workers.Market Reaction and the Federal Reserve’s StanceAs the labor market gradually cooled, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times toward the end of 2025. Following the release of the December report, however, investors began unwinding bets on further rate cuts. Treasury yields rose, and markets now expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at its January meeting. zoom_out_map Conditional Meeting Probabilities, source: CME FedWatch Tool According to Bloomberg economists, the latest jobs data may have raised concerns among policymakers, but not enough to justify a swift return to rate cuts.Wages and Consumer SentimentAverage hourly earnings rose by 0.3% month over month in December, in line with expectations. Although wage growth has been slowing, it remains a key driver of consumer spending, which has become increasingly concentrated among wealthier households. zoom_out_map United States Average Hourly Earnings (monthly), source: TradingEconomics Despite some recent signs of improvement, consumer confidence remains subdued and close to record lows.Cautious Outlook for the Year AheadEconomists expect the labor market to remain weak in the coming months, with limited job opportunities and further cooling in wage growth. This outlook could intensify household concerns about affordability and financial security, particularly ahead of upcoming congressional elections. As a result, the US labor market enters the new year in a fragile balance — without a sharp rise in unemployment, but also without clear momentum for a rebound. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Metals and Markets in general had been trading with angst regarding today's non-event Supreme Court decision day – After the NFP release, volatile swings were depicting a sense of confusion. The US Dollar Index is now back above 99.00 after strong swings.The Supreme Court makes announcements regarding decisions after Opinion Days, and with this decision being fast-forwarded, it is expected to be released before July.Elevated expectations for this Decision Day to pertain to Tariffs were followed by disappointment: We won't know if tariffs will be struck down or maintained until at least January 19th. zoom_out_map Daily Metal Performance (11:09 A.M) – Source: TradingView XAG = Silver, XAU = Gold, XCU = Copper, XPT = Platinum, XPD = Palladium Now partly relieved of the decision (which would have huge impact on metals demand), precious metals are trading higher but still show quite some uncertainty:Struck down tariffs (consensus decision) would have a negative effect on metals as part of their demand in 2025 was from the fact that tariffs would require a faster de-dollarization process. The fact that this is priced in already would mitigate the effect somewhat – The reactions would be expected to be reflected depending on how the White House respondsWithheld tariffs could lead to a continued high-paced upside in Metals, as it would not only maintain higher need for dollar-diversification, but would also compromise the independence of the court while adding precedent to the Trump Administration domination on legal issues.Silver is nearing $80 per ounce (check out our freshly released analysis) and Gold is already breaching $4,500.Ever since the final week of 2025 and record highs in almost all traded metals, the price action has been more mixed: Long metals is now a heavy consensus trade and which makes its upside limited while adding magnitude to potential downside (even if fundamental conditions still warrant demand).Let's dive into High and intraday timeframes analysis for Gold (XAU/USD) and Palladium (XPD/USD) to spot how things are looking on the technical aspect. Read More:Why venezuela’s political transition has left oil markets largely unmovedMarkets Today: Chinese Inflation Edges Higher, Gold Steady with NFP & Supreme Court Decision Now in FocusMonetary policy divergence: Australia & Eurozone CPI and the EUR/AUD tumbleGold (XAU/USD) Weekly and Intraday ChartsWeekly Chart zoom_out_map Gold (XPD/USD) Weekly Chart, January 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView Now consolidating above $4,500, Gold is holding strong as high expectations for its 2026 performance maintain prices bid, even after the not-so-dovish NFP Report.Gold reacts very strongly to psychological and round levels – Today's close above or below $4,500 could have important repercussions.One thing to note on the weekly chart however is the weekly RSI bear divergence which may act as a bearish catalyst in the coming trading period:Any move lower may get magnified from the technical indication.On the higher timeframe, look at whether the $4,000 level holds or not to see if the picture holds bullish or turns bearish.Let's take a closer look.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, January 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView Momentum is holding very strong for Gold after today's data release and no-decision regarding tariffs.Holding a bullish trendline, traders should watch whether prices keep bouncing towards new record highs. In case they don't, expect a swift test of the $4,400 Pivot Zone and 4H MA 50.Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD) trading:Resistance Levels$4,550 Current all-time HighATH Resistance $4,500 to $4,5501.618% Fibonacci Projection $4,666 to $4,680Support LevelsMajor Intraday Pivot $4,400 and 4H 50-MADecember 31 Mini-Support Support $4,280$4,160 Major Intraday SupportWeekly Major Pivot $3,950 to $4,000$3,500 Major SupportPalladium (XPD/USD) Weekly and Intraday ChartsWeekly Chart zoom_out_map Palladium (XPD/USD) Weekly Chart, January 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView Palladium is reacting to the $2,000 psychological resistance but maintains a strong picture.Rising from $800 to $2,000 throughout 2025, the metal is a late bloomer of the trend.Hanging above its Major pivot Zone ($1,600) provides a still-bullish picture but the metal will track performance in other more commonly traded metals such as Silver or Gold, so keep an eye on those.Palladium also holds a strong correlation to Platinum, the other Proxy for those who missed the huge rally in metals this year.Let's take a closer look.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Palladium (XPD/USD) 4H Chart, January 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView Looking closer, Palladium is slowing its buying momentum as profit-taking occurs after high swings – Sellers are taking the lead at the $1,900 resistance, giving them the advantage.Stuck in a triangle consolidation, keep an eye on these breakout scenarios:Bullish breakout ($1,930) – Test of the recent $2,080 highs, breaking would open to October 2022 levels around $2,300Bearish break ($1,730) – Retest the short-timeframe Major Pivot from $1,650 to $1,670Palladium Technical Levels to keep on your charts:Resistance levels$1,950 to $2,080 Major ResistanceImmediate Resistance $1,900 to $1,930October 2022 Highs $2,390$3,410 2022 All-time HighsSupport levels$1,720 to $1,730 Key intraday Support, 4H 50 MACurrent Pivot $1,650 to $1,670 (October peak)$1,500 Major Psychological SupportNovember Support $1,350$1,100 September Lows SupportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Venezuela’s production capacity remains capped near 1 million barrels per day, far below historical levels.Sanctions, degraded infrastructure, and political risk prevent a rapid supply rebound.Heavy, high-sulfur crude requires high prices and massive investment to be economically viable.Venezuela’s oil is a long-term strategic option, not a near-term supply shock. Global oil prices have reacted only marginally to Venezuela’s political transition, reflecting a market consensus that the country will not deliver a meaningful increase in crude supply in the near future. While Venezuela holds vast oil reserves, investors remain focused on practical constraints—limited production capacity, deteriorated infrastructure, and weak investment economics—which prevent any rapid supply response.Production capacity remains severely limited At present, Venezuela’s effective production capacity is estimated at around 1 million barrels per day, only slightly above current output and far below the roughly 2.5 million barrels per day produced a decade ago. Years of mismanagement, underinvestment, and international sanctions have left the oil sector unable to scale up quickly. Recent U.S. actions have reinforced these limits: sanctions on shipping reduced exports to about 500,000 barrels per day, forcing production cuts as storage filled up. Even proposals for the U.S. to purchase oil held in floating storage would ease logistical pressures rather than unlock new supply.Weak investment economics and high costs Some modest recovery is possible if sanctions are eased and the United States becomes a stable buyer. Smaller, risk-tolerant producers could restart marginal fields, potentially lifting output by around 300,000 barrels per day over the next two to three years. This would bring production toward roughly 1.4 million barrels per day—still insufficient to influence a global market consuming more than 100 million barrels per day.Structural and economic barriers remain substantial. Venezuela’s heavy, high-sulfur crude requires costly extraction, blending, and specialized refining, resulting in persistent discounts to benchmarks such as WTI. Estimates suggest break-even prices could approach USD 80 per barrel, making large-scale investment unattractive at current price levels. Rebuilding the sector would require around USD 100 billion in total investment, with annual spending of roughly USD 12 billion needed for decades to return production toward 3 million barrels per day—likely not before around 2040.Long-term strategic value, limited near-term impact Political risk further discourages major oil companies. A history of nationalization, contract revisions, and unresolved arbitration claims has left international producers wary of committing capital without strong legal and fiscal guarantees. While Chevron has maintained a limited presence, most large Western firms remain cautious.Against this backdrop, U.S. interest in Venezuela’s oil appears driven less by immediate market needs and more by long-term strategy. With U.S. shale output expected to plateau later this decade and other Western Hemisphere producers peaking in the early 2030s, future supply constraints are becoming a growing concern. Global oil demand continues to rise, and maintaining current production levels will require massive ongoing investment worldwide.In this context, Venezuela represents a long-duration strategic option rather than a near-term supply shock. Its oil resources could matter in the 2030s if prices rise significantly and political conditions stabilize, but for now, structural limitations explain why markets have largely shrugged off recent developments.Technical perspective zoom_out_map Daily chart of the CFD contract based on Brent crude oil prices, source: TradingView At present, Brent crude prices are rising dynamically and approaching the area of USD 63.5 per barrel. For now, the USD 59 level has proven to be a fairly strong support zone, with lows in this area recorded in mid-December 2025 as well as earlier in April and May. This support has so far prevented a deeper decline, and with a relatively high probability, prices may continue to move higher in the short term. Technical resistance is located around USD 65–65.5 per barrel, with the next major resistance near USD 70. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: When the radar goes dark: Navigating the market after the COT report delayThe first major economic release of 2026 arrives this Friday, January 9, at 8:30 AM ET. Following a year of significant volatility marked by a federal government shutdown and a series of interest rate cuts, this Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report will be the definitive barometer for whether the Federal Reserve’s recent easing cycle was a masterstroke or a premature reaction to a cooling labor market.Risks Heading into the Release The primary risk remains data noise. Residual effects from the late-2025 government shutdown continue to cloud the "true" hiring trend. Additionally, significant downward revisions to October and November figures could overshadow a decent December headline, painting a bleaker picture of the quarter's momentum.Market participants are also wary of a potential "January Effect," where rebalancing and new-year optimism collide with high-stakes data.Lastly there is the growing pressure on Jerome Powell in what will be one of his last meetings as Fed Chair. Comments from Stephen Miran on Thursday may be a sign of what Powell's successor would bring as they would be appointees of the current administration.Miran said he is looking at 150 bps of rate cuts through 2026, to boost the labor market. That is quite a stark contrast to what the Fed is currently pricing.The Consensus: A Moderate Recovery Economists are forecasting a modest rebound in hiring after months of data distortions. The consensus for December’s NFP sits at approximately 60,000 to 70,000 new jobs. This follows a November print of 64,000 and a catastrophic, shutdown-skewed October that saw over 100,000 jobs temporarily erased.While the headline hiring remains below historical norms of 100k+, the unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 4.5% (from 4.6%).This slight drop is largely attributed to furloughed federal workers returning to payrolls and a low rounding threshold in the household survey.Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) are forecast to rise 0.3% MoM (3.6% YoY), a level the Fed considers consistent with its long-term inflation goals. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Deviation from the Consensus: What It Means The Hawkish Beat (85k+): A surprise to the upside would suggest the labor market is far more resilient than the Fed’s recent 75bps of cuts implied. This would likely ignite a "good news is bad news" reaction, as traders would be forced to price out a March rate cut, fearing the Fed may have to pause or even reverse course to combat "sticky" inflation.The Dovish Miss (<50k): A sub-50k print would confirm fears of a "material" weakening in labor demand. This would validate the market's current pricing for at least two more cuts in 2026, reinforcing the narrative that the US is in a late-cycle expansion vulnerable to recession.Potential implications for the US Dollar Index (DXY) & Nasdaq 100 The market's reaction to the NFP report will not be uniform, but rather dependent on the deviation from consensus forecasts. These are the potential reactions we could see depending on how the data comes out and is received.The DXY is currently technically oversold and trades near key support levels. This creates an asymmetric upside risk. Because the market is already heavily positioned for a dovish Fed, a stronger-than-expected report (above 75k) could trigger a violent short-covering rally, driving the DXY back toward the 100 level. Only a significantly weak report would have the power to push the dollar toward fresh multi-year lows.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, January 9, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index enters this release on a knife’s edge. If the report hits the "Goldilocks" zone (moderate hiring with cooling wages), the Nasdaq could rally on the promise of continued Fed support. However, a strong NFP would likely spike yields, putting immediate pressure on high-valuation growth stocks. Conversely, a deep miss might initially support stocks via lower yields, but could quickly sour into a "growth scare" sell-off.Nasdaq 100 Four-Chart, January 9, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Outlook Moving Forward If Friday’s data confirms that hiring has bottomed out, the Fed may find its "soft landing." However, if the 3-month average continues to slide, the pressure on Jerome Powell and his potential successor to provide more aggressive liquidity will become the dominant market theme for the remainder of the quarter.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways: The 43-day COT report delay created a data vacuum, allowing "managed money" to build crowded, unseen market positions.The backfilled COT data caused a "positioning shock" in markets like soybeans, triggering sharp reversals as positions realigned.The lack of speculative sentiment data highlighted a major risk: market opacity significantly increases the chance of a "volatility explosion" upon the report's return.The 43-Day data vacuum: Unmasking the positioning shock in soybeans As a trader, operating without the Commitments of Traders (COT) report during the recent 43-day government shutdown felt like flying a plane through a thick fog without a radar. When the CFTC finally resumed operations on November 13, 2025, we were met with a massive data vacuum that had left speculative "managed money" to operate under the radar for over six weeks.The impact was immediately visible in the grains market; for instance, once the backfilled data started hitting the tape, we discovered a massive shift in soybeans, where funds had swung from a net short to a staggering net long of over 229,000 contracts. This "positioning shock" triggered sharp reversals as the market scrambled to realign with the reality of just how crowded those trades had become while the lights were off in Washington.The recovery process has been a lesson in patience and "detective work," as the CFTC opted to release the backlogged reports in chronological order rather than jumping to current dates. This meant that throughout late November and December, market participants were often trading based on snapshots that were weeks old, forcing us to rely on proxies like ETF flows, and the LME’s (London Metal Exchange) positioning data just to guess where the "big money" was leaning.While the Commission managed to accelerate the schedule to get us current by December 29, the lag effectively extended the period of market opacity. For those of us in the pits or behind the screens, the shutdown serves as a stark reminder: when the primary barometer for speculative sentiment goes dark, the risk of a "volatility explosion" upon its return becomes the single most important factor to hedge.Managed money vs. small speculators: Diverging net positions in soybean futures zoom_out_map Soybeans Chart 2023 - 2025 Source: COTbase.com Past perfomance is not indicative of future results The above chart displays a time series of net positions (Long minus Short) for key participant groups in the soybean futures market, which is crucial for gauging speculative sentiment and potential market turning points. The green trendline on the above chart shows the clear and aggressive swing in the Managed Money line. This is represented by the Managed Money line rapidly crossing above the zero line and spiking to the highest levels on the history axis, illustrating the sudden, crowded long trade that developed while the market was flying "without a radar." Ready to decode market positioning? Register now for our weekly recurring live technical analysis webinar, where we dive into the latest COT report and explore essential technical analysis tools for trading FX, commodities, and market indices. The red trendline shows small speculators were consistently selling or reducing positions while prices were moving higher, a common approach often seen on small speculators and/or retail traders in other markets such as FX trading. Interestingly, and as the price began to fall, their net position has trended back toward the zero line, suggesting "Small speculators" are covering shorts or attempting to catch a bottom as prices soften. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold was down as much as 1.2% before recovering to trade above the $4450/oz. The precious metal is still finding significant buying support on dips but does remain vulnerable if it does not breach the $4500/oz level.Geopolitics and US Data Geopolitical risk rears its head again as news came through earlier today that the US were going to seize another tanker out of Venezuela which was sporting a Russian flag. This has caused some concern about an escalation between the US and Venezuela as well as potentially Russia.The White House separately confirmed discussions about acquiring Greenland, including potential military involvement which is likely to keep safe haven demand in play as well.Further underpinning the precious metal was softer than expected employment data which continues to support further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. US job openings fell more than expected in November after rising marginally in October, while a separate ADP report showed that private payrolls increased less than expected in December.What Comes Next for Gold Prices? Investors are closely watching for the release of the NFP data on Friday, January 9. This will likely have a major impact on rate cut expectations and thus could serve as a catalyst for gold's next big move.Gold does appear to still be volatile given the price action we saw today. So I would not rule out significant movement overnight in the Asian session.Tomorrow brings a batch of mid-tier US economic data that could spark some volatility. The key releases to watch include the initial jobless claims and the trade balance for goods and services. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD) Looking at the four-hour chart below, the technical picture is intriguing to say the least..The rally since the start of the week has failed to gain acceptance above the crucial $4500/oz level.The selloff today however, has run into a key area of support provided by the 50-day MA which rests at $4419/oz.Price has bounced and is now resting just around the $4450/oz handle, with the period-14 RSI also having bounced off the 50 level which hints at bullish momentum remaining in play.As things stand buyers remain in control with significant support to the downside. The ongoing geopolitical drama is also underpinning prices.This could all change with Friday's jobs data where a strong NFP print and a significant improvement in the unemployment rate could lead to a selloff which may threaten the $4400/oz handle.A move lower may look to retest the weekend gap which rests between the $4332-$4354/oz handles.Meanwhile, a move higher from here needs acceptance above the $4500/oz handle before a sustainable break of the current all-time high around $4550/oz becomes a possibility.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, January 7, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.Traders are officially getting back to work after a well-deserved winter holiday break. Hope that you all had wonderful Christmas and New Year celebrations.Markets are already getting what they wanted in terms of volatility and news with the capture of Venezuela's President/Dictator Nicolas Maduro, leading to significant gaps on the Monday open and massive rallies across all asset classes.With the Trump Administration following up the capture with threats to other Latin American countries like Colombia or Mexico, and even more deranging, threats to Greenland, we can expect quite an adventurous 2026 trading.This created a boost to the Freedom Trade, which added a significant boost to Stocks, pushing the Dow Jones and S&P 500 to new record highs and further driving demand for Metals, as safe-haven demand also makes considerable sense.Wall Street is loving these flows, in any case, with a sense of rebound in confidence in US strength, as US exceptionalism can even cross borders to protect US Interests.Banks and investors are uncertain about how to proceed with the new fundamental data, as the impact of the latest geopolitical developments has yet to be fully felt.This also combines with quite uncertain US inflation and economic outlooks, leaving a still cloudy picture of a Fed rate cut. zoom_out_map Rate Cut Pricing for the January Meeting – 10% Priced for now What’s certain is that Canada could face further challenges with Venezuela's Maduro capture. A reopened Venezuelan oil market offers alternatives to the Canada Western Select, a special class of heavy sour Crude Oil.You can learn more on this right here.The weekly open sent the Loonie struggling – You can see more on this further in the article.Adding to the uncertainty of the USMCA Agreement, traders can still expect volatility for the CAD and USD.Keep a close eye on headlines regarding the economic debates with news expected to release during the month. And don't forget that Markets are still awaiting a real US-Canada Trade deal.Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap. Read More:Oil on Discount: WTI Nosedives as Sellers Return to the Market, What's Next?Markets Today: Euro Area Inflation Cools, Silver Peaks Above $80/oz, Gold Retreats Ahead of Key US Data ReleasesChart Alert: Gold (XAU/USD) is losing bullish momentum below US$4,500, bearish reversal nextNorth-American Indices Performance zoom_out_map North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – January 7, 2026 – Source: TradingView Stocks have had quite a sweet Year-Beginning run.Most global Stock Indexes are up since the Yearly open, particularly after Monday's buying spree across US Benchmarks.Still, the US NFP is coming up on Friday which could put a brutal stop to the ongoing frenzy.Dollar Index 8H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index Daily Chart, January 7, 2026 – Source: TradingView I invite you to check out our freshly release in-depth US Dollar Analysis where you can get access to trading levels, ideas and much more:What’s Next for the US Dollar After the "Freedom Trade" Surge? – DXY OutlookUS Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map USD vs other Majors since last Monday, January 7, 2026 - Source: TradingView The performance for the US Dollar is very mixed – APAC Currencies, particularly the Antipodeans are taking the lead but FX trends have yet to materialize.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map CAD vs other Majors, January 7, 2026 - Source: TradingView. It seems that the Loonie is still quite hungover from its New Year's Eve.The Canadian Dollar is down against all of its major counterparts to start the year.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD zoom_out_map USD/CAD 4H Chart, January 7, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/CAD is rallying quite strongly since forming its bottom around mid-December, supported by its uptrend.With the mean-reversion higher forming a Bearish RSI divergence, watch for a potential sell entry around the 4H 200-period MA, currently at 1.38570.A break of the upwards trendline can be used as confirmation.A close above on the session would on the other hand see a breakout to retest the 1.39-1.3925 August resistance.Levels of interest for USD/CAD:Resistance Levels4H 200 MA at 1.385701.38730 FOMC Highs1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance1.40 Major ResistanceSupport Levels1.38 Handle Major Pivot +/- 150 pips1.3780 Trendline Mini-SupportAugust support 1.37501.3660 July Breakout support1.3550 Main 2025 SupportUS and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week zoom_out_map US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar The end of the week is firmly centered on NA labor markets.Thursday opens with U.S. employment signals via Challenger job cuts and initial jobless claims, followed by Q3 productivity and unit labor cost data—useful inputs for gauging wage pressure and anticipate labor market dynamics heading into payrolls.Friday is the main event, with Canada and the U.S. releasing jobs data simultaneously (8:30 A.M.).In Canada, focus is on employment change, unemployment, and wage growth, with consensus pointing to a soft print after November’s strength.In the U.S., the full labor report hits at once: NonFarm Payrolls, unemployment, participation, underemployment, and earnings, alongside housing data.The session closes with preliminary Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations, rounding out a data-heavy finish likely to set the tone for rates and FX into the following weeks. Keep an eye on developments for the US Dollar!Safe Trades and Much Success for 2026!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

After an initial inverse reaction—rising at the weekly open following the capture of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro—WTI oil prices are now correcting.The initial spike was fascinating, offering a potential blueprint for what we might expect in the event of a future Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. But why did oil go up on news that logically opens the door to more supply?It is the effect of an inverted "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News." Sanctioned nations like Russia and Venezuela have been forced to supply the market at deep discounts—recently reported as much as $20 below spot prices—to bypass restrictions. zoom_out_map Discounts in the Oil Market – X Post from Javier Blas When such nations regain official access to traditional markets, their competitive black market offers disappear. This effectively removes the "cheapest" barrels from the shadow market, creating a temporary perception of tightening or, at the very least, a volatility premium. – This argument is on the backline of why Oil has been going down ever since the beginning of the Ukraine-Russia conflict and could reverse at the resolution.The same logic applies to Iran, which is currently undergoing what resembles the beginning of a revolution. The anti-West axis (Iran, Venezuela, Russia) has historically created a drag on oil prices by flooding the market to fund their regimes, even with restricted access. This is the "Sanctions Paradox," which I gladly invite you all to read more about.In any case, the test of $59 was short-lived. Sellers came right back into action to mean-revert the rebound. While higher supply from a reopened Venezuela will eventually offer stiff competition to Canadian heavy crude, this infrastructure ramp-up will take time to materialize. Consequently, the current pullback is likely explained by the dissipation of that initial geopolitical volatility premium.But do sellers have enough momentum to push prices to fresh lows? It's possible, but there are structural elements pointing against it.Let's dive right into a multi-timeframe analysis of WTI Oil to see why. Read More:What’s Next for the US Dollar After the "Freedom Trade" Surge? – DXY OutlookMarkets Today: Euro Area Inflation Cools, Silver Peaks Above $80/oz, Gold Retreats Ahead of Key US Data ReleasesChart Alert: Gold (XAU/USD) is losing bullish momentum below US$4,500, bearish reversal nextUS Oil Intraday Timeframe AnalysisWTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map WTI Oil 4H Chart – January 7, 2026. Source: TradingView Looking at the ongoing price action, the swift selloff has seen mean-reversion buying at the $56.50 Support.When price action sees such sudden up and down reversals, it tends to offer strong rangebound setups for buy low, sell high setups.Still, retesting and breaking today's lows at $55.82 would reject this hypothesis.When traders are lost and looking for direction, ranges have high chance of forming. This takes even more ground when Moving Averages are flattening like on this chart.Look for buying at support ($56.40 to $56.50) and profit-taking/selling between $58 to $59.WTI Technical LevelsLevels to place on your WTI charts:Resistance Levels$57 to $58.00 Major Pivot$58.17 4H 200-MA$59 to $60 2021 Resistance and Channel HighsMinor Resistance $62 to $63Key September Resistance $65 to $66Support Levels$56.38 Weekly Open gap down$55.83 Session Lows$55 to $56.50 2025 Support and Channel lows2019 mini support $53 to $54Mid-2019 Main support $51 to $52.5030M Chart and Trading Setups zoom_out_map WTI Oil 30M Chart – January 7, 2026. Source: TradingView After the bouts of volatility from this morning, the action is calming down on shorter timeframes.Sellers are seeing some exhaustion at the session lows (coinciding with the 2025 lows support) – Still, the buying is timid and seeing rejection at the 30M 50-period MA.For the rangebound setup, traders can look at a break above the 50 MA to get confirmation with a potential stop below the session lows or 2025 lows for more conservative positions.Safe Trades and a Successful 2026!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Near-term bias turning bearish: Gold is struggling below the US$4,485–4,500 resistance zone, with price action signalling a potential short-term bearish reversal over the next 1–3 days.Momentum and retracement warning signs: The recent rebound has reached a key Fibonacci retracement and is accompanied by bearish RSI divergence, suggesting the move is likely a countertrend bounce rather than a fresh bullish impulse.Key levels to watch: A break below US$4,430/4,403 opens the door to deeper pullbacks toward US$4,333–4,309 and potentially US$4,267–4,243, while a clear break above US$4,500 would invalidate the bearish scenario.Short-term trend bias (1 to 3 days): Bearish reversal zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 7 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the key short-term pivotal resistance at US$4,485/4,500 for a potential minor bearish reversal in the first step for Gold (XAU/USD).A break below US$4,430/4,403 may expose further weakness towards the next intermediate supports at US$4,333/4,309, followed by the first medium-term support zone of US$4,267/4,243 (also the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from 28 October 2025 low).Key elements to support the bearish bias The minor up moves of 5.3% from the 31 December 2025 low of US$4,274 to today’s 7 January 2025 intraday high of US$4,500 have reached 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the prior corrective decline from its current all-time high printed on 26 December 2025 to 31 December 2025.The rally since Monday, January 5, 2025, has been accompanied by a bearish divergence condition, as indicated by the hourly RSI momentum indicator, which has reached its overbought region.These observations suggest that the rally from 31 December 2025 is likely to be a countertrend/mean reversion rebound rather than the start of a new bullish impulsive up move sequence for Gold (XAU/USD).Alternative trend bias (1 to days) A clearance above US$4,485/4,500 key short-term resistance invalidates the bearish reversal scenario on Gold (XAU/USD) that allows bulls to be in control again,Above the current all-time high of US$4,550/4,560 sees the next intermediate resistance comes in at US$4,645 (Fibonacci extension and upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

After yesterday's explosive open, stocks are seeing a more muted yet remarkably consistent rally.With not much else, a single theme is dominating the price action: Wall Street is overwhelmingly approving of the recent US operations in Venezuela.If the rally were confined solely to energy stocks, it could be dismissed as a targeted sector play. However, with participation broadening across most sectors, the signal is one of renewed confidence in US policy, particularly with the US Dollar rallying back today.The narrative is shifting. The "America First" approach is no longer being viewed merely as isolationist, but as an aggressive strategy placing US interests at the front of the global stage.A mistake from most is to look at today's situation from the glance of the 2000 peace regime when one should look 100 to 200 years back.Traders are connecting the dots between the dismantling of Iran's nuclear capabilities, the tentative thawing of relations with Russia, and now, the intervention in Venezuela coupled with fresh warnings to other nations.President Trump appears to be resurrecting the Monroe Doctrine for the modern age—dubbed by many as the "Donroe Doctrine."With retail and institutional participants alike deploying their year-end bonuses and holiday capital into the markets, this geopolitical assertiveness is providing a powerful backdrop for equities to run higher. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (15:06 P.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 6, 2026 The current picture extends yesterday's broadly positive mood, with the largest names of Stock Markets (like Apple, Tesla or Google) struggling at the cost of virtually all the other sectors.Semiconductors, Healthcare and industrials are leading the Market picture, with Amazon also demarking itself after weeks of muted performance.Let's dive into our daily intra-session charts and trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Silver (XAG/USD) Explodes to $80 and Platinum (XPT/USD) Tests its All-Time HighsBitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and SOL Rebound Strongly to Start 2026 – Crypto OverviewEUR/USD Forecast: Technicals and Seasonality Hint at Another Leg to the DownsideDow Jones 4H Chart – 49,500 Reached! zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – January 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow is running higher again, powered by the general rally in traditional sectors.Once again, the Dow is on the front of the Freedom Rally – Now breaching the 49,500 psychological level, it will need to close around its highs to pursue its path higher.Watch for the overbought conditions which may trigger some slowdown in the buying – consolidation at the highs adds further chances of a continued breakout.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsPotential Fibonacci Target 49,520 to 49,550Potential Fibonacci Target and Hourly Channel highs 50,15949,550 Session highs and Running50,000 Psychological Level and Higher timeframe Fib Target (50,159)Support LevelsChristmas ATH as current pivot – 48,870 to 49,000November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 mini-supportPsychological Support at 48,000Key Support 47,000 (+/- 150) and MA 20045,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)Nasdaq 2H Chart – Still not back to 100% zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – January 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Nasdaq is catching up some momentum again despite its biggest names lagging, powered by huge performance in Softwares and Semiconductors.After breaking yesterday's triangle formation to the upside, Bulls will have to push beyond the resistance zone between 25,700 to 25,850.Nonetheless, the ongoing rally is strong and suggests further upside – At least until Thursday when traders prepare for the Non-Farm Payrolls report.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levelsintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)Support Levels25,500 Triangle formation highs (broken)Pivot 25,500 +/- 75 ptsPivot now Support 25,000 to 25,25024,500 Main supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart – New Record! zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – January 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is officially breaking new record highs, powered by the ecstatic and widespread good mood in Wall Street.A further extension beyond the 6,950 record will be required for further confirmation of an All-time high run.For now, things are looking very positive to start 2026. Nevertheless, keep an eye on reactions ahead of the NFP report.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsDec 26 Christmas All Time-Highs 6,956 (breaking)1.382% Fib-Extension potential resistance at 7,001Support Levels6,910 4H 50-MA Support6,800 Psychological Pivot and Range lowsSupport 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 506,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and a Successful 2026!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

For traders returning to their desks after the mid-December break, the Metals complex has been the unmissable story, aggressively grabbing market share in investor portfolios even as volumes thinned out for year-end settlement.After a relatively calm consolidation period from October to late November, the catalyst for the next leg up arrived via a dovish pivot from NY Fed President Williams.His comments—early but later warranted by weaker inflation data and downward revisions to US labor numbers—rocked markets and reignited the "Dollar Diversification" trade.Initially, the rally was driven by rate cut expectations.The Year-end buying actually pushed prices to what resembled a short-squeeze around all metals as consecutive +5% average gains across the asset class were common theme just ahead of Christmas.When these narrative paused, geopolitical uncertainty took the baton—and that is exactly where we find ourselves today. zoom_out_map Metals Performance Since September 2025 – Source: TradingView The latest headline shocker arrived over the weekend with the sneaky (to say the least) capture of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro.While a US intervention in Venezuela had been priced in to some extent, the "sci-fi" nature of the execution caught markets off guard.The real accelerant for the renewed panic demand in metals wasn't the capture itself, but the aftermath.In post-operation interviews, President Trump renewed threats regarding Greenland, autonomous territory of Denmark (a NATO and EU member).This has triggered immediate concern regarding sovereign FX reserve diversification – A Major theme during 2025.Denmark, for instance, holds approximately $90 billion in foreign currency reserves, the majority of which are denominated in US Dollars. With diplomatic tensions rising, it is safe to assume the Danish government—and other nations watching closely—are actively looking for other solution.This is bringing yet another buying wave in Precious Metals, further driven higher by the influx of money from asset managers at the beginning of the year and confirming the end-of-December price extremes that took Gold, Silver, and Platinum to new all-time highs.Let's dive into an intraday timeframe analysis for Silver (XAG/USD) and Platinum (XPT/USD) as ongoing buying is catching steam. Read More:Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and SOL Rebound Strongly to Start 2026 – Crypto OverviewEUR/USD Forecast: Technicals and Seasonality Hint at Another Leg to the DownsideStock Markets Cheer Newfound Freedom to Begin 2026 — US Index Outlook zoom_out_map A look at the daily performance in Commodities, January 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView. XAG = Silver, XAU = Gold, XCU = Copper, XPT = Platinum, XPD = Palladium Platinum 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Platinum (XPT/USD) 4H Chart, January 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView It seems that our 2026 Metals Preview was timid in terms of targets looking at the current action.Having easily breached its 2008 preceding record during the holidays, Platinum kept on extending all the way to $2,500 where traders returning and profit-taking preceded a huge pullback.Looking at the chart, this is a picture break-retest of 2011 highs and of previous Channel bounds, mentioned in our late-December analysis.Keep an eye on the RSI – overall, the picture is looking very bullish and strong but buyers will have to exceed preceding highs with even more momentum to avoid the formation of divergences.For now, they are far from showing up and momentum is strong. I expect to see at least a test of the ATH or higher for Platinum.Platinum Technical Levels to keep on your charts:Resistance levels$2,450 to $2,525 Current All-Time HighsSession highs $2,420Potential Resistance at Fib Extension (1.382) $2,700 to $2,770Potential Resistance 2 at Fib Extension $2,900 to $3,000Support levels$2,200 to $2,300 2008 Momentum Pivot2011 All-Time Highs turned Support $1,900 to $1,9502013 and Current year highs $1,700 to $1,750$1,620 to $1,650 FOMC SupportMajor High Timeframe pivot $1,500 to $1,600Silver 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart, January 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView Silver is going ballistic in today's action, up another 6%.The grey metal is once again caught up into waves of thinner supply and immense demand as beginning-year orders push up demand yet again, particularly with its positive seasonals.Immediate reactions will be interesting:Entering the $82 to $84 all-time High resistance Zone without slowing down (no dojis or red candles) indicates higher chances of a breakoutStalling at $84 could point to a double top – The way things have been, even double tops aren't enough to generate strong pullbacks, so this could point to a dip-to-buyFailure to breach $82 this week seems unlikely but would be a first sign of weakness for the metal.With Momentum and Volumes coming back to Market, continuation makes sense so keep an eye on potential new records or what happens if buyers fail to push prices all the way to there.$82 to $84 Current ATH Resistance.On the higher timeframe, watch whether Silver holds its $75 Pivot Zone and upward trendline – $70 is the next support below.Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD) trading:Resistance Levels:$81.01 Session Highs$82 to $84 Current ATH Resistance$87 to $88 Potential Fibonacci Resistance$92 Potential Fibonacci Resistance 2Support Levels:$75 to $77 Immediate Bull/Bear PivotPsychological Support, Higher Timeframe Pivot $70 to $72Support $65 to $67 at Previous All-time Highs Safe Trades and Happy New Year!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Macro tailwinds favour AUD: Improving China growth signals and still-elevated Australian inflation tilt the RBA toward a less dovish stance in early 2026, underpinning medium-term AUD/USD upside.Medium-term uptrend firmly established: AUD/USD has broken its long-term downtrend, is holding above the rising 20-day MA, and remains supported by a widening AU–US 2Y yield differential, with 0.6590 as the key medium-term support.Short-term bullish momentum constructive: A minor bullish breakout above 0.6720 opens scope for a push toward 0.6760–0.6800, as long as 0.6685 holds over the next 1–3 trading days. zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Annual performance of the US dollar against major currencies as of 31 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) The Australian dollar delivered a strong performance in 2025, finishing the year with a 7.2% gain against the US dollar. This placed it among the top-performing major currencies, trailing only the euro (+11.8%) and the Swiss franc (+12.5%) versus the greenback (see Fig. 1).Since the 21 November 2025 low of 0.6421, the AUD/USD recorded a gain of close to 5% as of Tuesday, 6 January 2025, at the time of writing, to print an intraday value of 0.6730.Twin drivers: China’s improving economic prospects and Australia’s rising inflation trend The macro factors that are supporting the ongoing medium-term (multi-week) bullish momentum in the AUD/USD are, firstly, an improving economic backdrop in China, where the official NBS Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 50.1 in December 2025, surpassing both November’s reading and expectations of 49.2. It marked the first expansion in factory activity in China since March 2025Secondly, Australia’s inflation trend has started to accelerate since June 2025, as the trimmed mean CPI jumped to 3.3% y/y in October 2025 from June’s print of 2.8% y/y and September’s print of 3.2%. Even though, the consensus for December 2025’s trimmed mean CPI that is released on Wednesday, 7 January, is expected to cool down slightly to 3.1% y/y but it is still higher that RBA’s desired long-term inflation target of 2%-3%.Hence, an improving macro backdrop from China, which is Australia’s major trading partner and domestic inflation trend remains elevated, the odds are skewed towards a less dovish RBA’s monetary policy stance at least in the first quarter of 2026, which is likely going to be supportive for the AUD/USD to springboard to higher highs.Let’s now dissect the directional bias of the AUD/USD from a technical analysis perspective.AUD/USD medium-term uptrend supported by a bullish reversal from 20-day MA zoom_out_map Fig. 2: AUD/USD medium-term & major trends as of 6 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The AUD/USD has staged a major bullish breakout on 5 December 2025 from its former long-term secular descending trendline that capped previous rallies since the 25 February 2021 high.The positive developments have indicated that the medium-term range configuration from 24 April 2025 to 21 November 2025 is likely to have ended, and the AUD/USD’s trend has now transited to a medium-term up trend phase since the 21 November 2025’s key inflection low of 0.6421 (see Fig. 2).The latest price actions of the AUD/USD have managed to trade above its rising 20-day moving average, which is acting as a key intermediate support at around 0.6660, where it staged a rebound on 2 January 2026 and on Monday, 5 January 2026.In addition, the 2-year yield premium between Australian sovereign bonds and US Treasury notes has continued to widen to 0.60% at the time of writing from 0.10% printed on 19 November 2025.These positive observations on the Australian dollar reinforce the ongoing medium-term uptrend phase for the AUD/USD with its key medium-term pivotal support at 0.6590.AUD/USD minor bullish acceleration towards 0.6760 and 0.6800 zoom_out_map Fig. 3: AUD/USD minor trend as of 6 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) We now turn to the key technical levels and short-term intraday signals to define the prevailing trend bias over the next one to three trading days.Based on the hourly chart, the AUD/USD has just staged a bullish breakout from a former minor range resistance of 0.6718/0.6727 in place since 29 December 2025.This minor bullish breakout is likely to have solidified the start of another potential leg of an impulsive up move sequence for the AUD/USD (see Fig. 3).Watch the 0.6685 key short-term pivotal support (also the minor ascending channel support from 21 November 2025 low) to maintain the bullish bias on the AUD/USD for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 0.6760 and 0.6800 in the first step.However, failure to hold at 0.6685 negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective slide to retest the 20-day moving average that is acting as the second-level key short-term support at 0.6660. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most traders are now back in rhythm after a long but well-deserved Winter holiday break.2025 has been a particularly adventurous rollercoaster, marked by the most volatility across asset classes in the year. Debasement trades, de-dollarization, AI, wars, Trump dramas, and TACOs, crypto ups and downs, and much more – trends, volatile ranges, and breakouts defined a much more active yearly session after years of doubt, as traders and asset managers agreed on the same principles.Risk assets were cheap, particularly after Liberation Day, so everyone went in – Valuations are now getting elevated, but the limit could still be far. zoom_out_map Global Stock Markets Performance in 2025 – Source: TradingView Markets received some pessimistic signs from the ISM Manufacturing PMI report, but when examining the current Market picture, traders are uniting behind hopes of more rate cuts. The answer to this should be confirmed further on Friday with the upcoming NFP report (8:30 A.M.).Another prospect boosting sentiment is the return of a proactive American foreign policy, for the US' own advantage – The capture of Venezuela's Maduro brings back Imperialism on the menu.Even if wars tend to dampen sentiment, the effect is often short-lived as investors learnt how profitable they are for US companies. But overall, the vibe from the Market is one of Freedom. Venezuelans seem to be content with the situation (from what we can see), and Americans are proud. Investors will hope this positive sentiment endures, while traders can simply rejoice from the volatility.Let's dive into our daily intra-session charts and trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (13:30 P.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 5, 2025 Read More:2026 US Dollar Forecast: How the Fed, Government Spending, and AI Will Drive VolatilityMarket Implications for Venezuela President Maduro's Capture – WTI Oil and Dow Jones to New Highs!Top Economic and Geopolitical Themes to Watch for Markets and Traders in 2026Dow Jones 2H Chart – Double Top broken zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – January 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bulls came in hungry to start the year, pushing the Industrial Index to new All-Time Highs once again. A very positive sign to undo the January 2 drops, but even more when considering that buyers broke above a preceding double top. This can be a sweet sign for a breakout (as short-sellers get caught and have to buy-back their positions higher). This effect can be short-lived but still has a positive effect.On the very short-run, the buying could see some stalling as the RSI reaches overbought levels. Nevertheless, the daily candle is a huge one, so further upside could be warranted.In the event of a retracement, keep a close eye on the 48,800 to 49,000 for a break-retest scenario.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsPotential mini-resistance around 49,300 (breaking) 1.382 Fib-ExtensionPotential Resistance from 49,420 to 49,50049,244 Session highs50,000 Psychological Level and Higher timeframe Fib Target (50,159)Support LevelsChristmas ATH as current pivot – 48,870 to 49,000 November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 mini-supportPsychological Support at 48,000Key Support 47,000 (+/- 150) and MA 20045,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)Nasdaq 2H Chart – Still not back to 100% zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – January 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView The tech-heavy index has been struggling to return to its preceding record established in October (26,182), currently trading shy of 3% from there.Sellers are re-entering the field around the 25,500 resistance zone leading a triangle consolidation, a technical formation to keep your eyes on for future breakouts.The intra-day selloff has already occurred and some dip-buyers are entering the action at the 2H 200-MA. The action should be more balanced in the tech-index, so watch the session highs for a bullish breakout and a break below the 200-MA for a bearish pullback.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMini-Resistance 25,500 +/- 75 pts (recent rejection)intermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)Support Levels25,400 200-period MA Support (immediate test)25,150 Triangle formation lowsPivot 25,000 to 25,250 Momentum pivot24,500 Main supportOctober and November lows just below 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart – Close to a breakout zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – January 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView The short-term bear channel formed from the December All-Time High peak is now seeing a breakout, leading to a bullish outlook.The 6,930 Psychological level is acting as short-term resistance (session highs).The RSI is not overbought yet but in any case, traders will need to watch whether buyers push to new highs (elevated breakout odds).For support, watch a return to the 2H 50-period MA. A break below would mark further downside potential.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsRange High Resistance 6,880 to 6,9006,930 (current All Time-Highs)Weekly highs 6,896Mid Range 6,850ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930Support Levels6,800 Psychological Pivot and Range lowsMini-Support 6,720 to 6,750 (current test)Session lows 6,750Support 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 506,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)6,400 psychological supportSafe Trades and a Successful 2026!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Heading into 2026, the US Dollar faces a complicated path driven by a conflict between the Federal Reserve and the government. While the Fed tries to stabilize the economy, the government is aggressively spending money through the new "One Big Beautiful Bill" Act.Experts predict a "V-shaped" year for the currency: the dollar is expected to weaken in the first six months, dropping from its current level of 99.00 down to around 94.00, as the Fed cuts interest rates to protect jobs.However, this dip should be temporary. By the second half of the year, the effects of the new government spending and trade tariffs will likely boost inflation, forcing interest rates back up and pushing the dollar back to or even above its starting level. Despite this predicted rebound, the dollar faces significant risks, including potential political fights over the debt limit, the possibility of the AI stock bubble bursting, and challenges from rival nations in the BRICS alliance. zoom_out_map Source: Created by Zain Vawda The Macroeconomic Landscape: A Tale of Two Halves Uneven Economic Growth (US vs. Europe) The U.S. economy is expected to outperform the rest of the world in 2026, though the growth will happen in two distinct phases. The year will likely start slowly as the lingering effects of high interest rates drag down spending, but the economy is projected to rebound strongly in the second half as new government stimulus kicks in. This temporary "soft patch" early in the year will allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which may briefly weaken the dollar.In contrast, Europe is facing stagnation and deep structural issues, forcing the European Central Bank to cut rates even more aggressively. Ultimately, the gap between a robust US and a weak Europe will provide long-term support for the dollar.The AI Investment Boom A massive wave of spending on Artificial Intelligence is acting as a safety net for the US economy. With up to $3 trillion projected to be spent on data centers and tech infrastructure, this boom is creating jobs and demand even as traditional manufacturing slows down. Since the tech giants driving this spending like Microsoft and Google are American, global investors continue to pour money into US markets. This constant flow of capital creates a "floor" for the dollar, keeping it relatively strong. However, relying so heavily on a single industry does create a significant risk if the tech sector suddenly stumbles.Inflation and Tariff Shocks While inflation was originally expected to fall to 2.4% in 2026, new trade policies could reverse that trend. The proposed "Liberation Day" tariffs, which include a 10% tax on imports, are expected to push prices up by an additional 1% to 1.5%. This creates a difficult scenario where growth might slow down while prices remain high ("stagflation"). Because the Federal Reserve would need to keep interest rates higher to fight this tariff-induced inflation, the dollar is likely to strengthen as higher rates attract foreign investors.Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve’s High Wire Act The Fed vs. The Market The Federal Reserve is currently walking a tightrope. Although they cut interest rates slightly at the end of 2025, they sent a "tough" message that they aren't ready to lower them much further.There is now a major disagreement between the Fed and investors: the Fed plans to keep rates relatively high (around 3.4%) through the end of 2026 to keep inflation in check, while investors are betting on deeper cuts (down to 3.0%) to help the economy. This gap between what the Fed plans to do and what the market expects will likely cause the dollar's value to jump up and down significantly.A Year of Two Halves Most experts predict that 2026 will play out in two distinct phases. In the first half of the year, the economy is expected to look weak, which will likely force the Fed to cut interest rates earlier than planned (possibly in January and April) to protect jobs. This would temporarily push the value of the dollar down.However, in the second half of the year, new government stimulus and trade tariffs are expected to heat up inflation again. This will force the Fed to stop cutting rates while other countries continue to cut theirs, making the dollar strong again by the end of the year.Higher Rates are Here to Stay Underlying all of this is a structural change in the economy. Economists believe the "neutral" interest rate, the sweet spot where the economy runs smoothly, is permanently higher now than it was before the pandemic, meaning rates won't return to rock-bottom levels.Furthermore, because the US government is borrowing massive amounts of money, it must offer higher returns (yields) on its long-term bonds to attract lenders. These higher yields tend to attract foreign money, which provides a long-term safety net for the dollar's value.Fiscal Policy: The "One Big Beautiful Bill" and Debt Dynamics Government Spending Saves the Day (Eventually) The "One Big Beautiful Bill" Act is a massive spending plan that extends tax cuts and creates new benefits. While this increases the national debt significantly, it acts as a powerful stimulus package. By the second half of 2026, the extra money from these tax cuts will flood into the economy, boosting growth and strengthening the dollar right when the economy needs it most.Borrowing More, But Attracting Cash To pay for these tax cuts, the US government must borrow huge amounts of money by selling bonds. Usually, having too much debt makes a country's currency look weak. However, because US bonds pay higher interest rates than those in Europe or Japan, global investors are expected to keep buying them. This constant demand for US bonds keeps money flowing into the dollar, keeping it strong despite the high debt levels.The Debt Limit Fight A major political risk returns on January 2, 2026, when the limit on how much the US government can borrow (the debt ceiling) kicks back in. The government can use emergency accounting tricks to keep running until the summer, but a political standoff is expected. Paradoxically, this drama often strengthens the dollar temporarily; when investors get scared by political fighting, they often rush to hold US cash as a "safe haven" until the crisis is resolved. zoom_out_map Source: Created by Zain Vawda Structural Risks: The Black Swan of 2026 About 26% of major investors believe the biggest risk in 2026 is an Artificial Intelligence (AI) crash. The concern is that companies are spending a massive $3 trillion on AI technology, but it might not generate enough profit to justify the cost. If big tech companies (the "Mag 7") fail to deliver results, their stock prices could collapse.This would hurt the US dollar in two ways: first, foreign investors would sell US stocks, driving the dollar down; second, if the crash causes a recession, the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates to zero, potentially crashing the dollar index below 90.Sovereign Debt Crisis With government debt at record highs worldwide, there is a risk of a financial crisis. A crisis in the US caused by excessive government spending (the "OBBBA" bill) would be a disaster, potentially destroying the dollar's reputation as a safe asset.However, experts think it is more likely that a debt crisis will hit Europe or developing nations instead. Paradoxically, if other countries face a crisis, investors will likely rush to buy US dollars for safety, making the dollar stronger.Major Currency Pairs Outlook zoom_out_map Source: Created by Zain Vawda Conclusion: The Resilient Greenback In short, the U.S. Dollar is expected to stay resilient in 2026, even if the ride gets bumpy. While the dollar might dip early in the year as the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates, it is supported by strong underlying forces that other countries simply cannot match. The massive new government spending bill ensures the US economy will grow faster than its rivals, keeping interest rates high and attracting investors. Furthermore, the U.S. advantage in AI technology and energy independence creates a solid safety net for the currency.Investors should expect a "check mark" pattern for the dollar this year: a temporary drop in the first six months, which will be a good chance to buy, followed by a strong recovery. In a world full of risks from wars to slow growth in Europe and China the US Dollar remains the best option available, or the "cleanest dirty shirt" in the laundry. The time of easy, calm markets is over; a new era of volatility and US strength has begun. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (05/01/2026): Join Senior Market Analyst for Asia Pacific Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.