The ongoing war in Russia has counterintuitively been one of the most significant bearish catalysts in the black gold– Russia floods the market of Oil to countries like India to sponsor its war, prompting threats from Trump.

The war may continue despite the Trump-Putin meeting, with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announcing that it would be "impossible" to concede land, mentioning Crimea.As a matter of fact, Ukraine landed hits on one of the key pipelines taking Russian Oil to Hungary, leaving the Hungarian PM Orbán in fury (He is one of the only pro-Russian leaders in Europe).In the Middle East, on the other hand, Hamas is getting cornered into a ceasefire deal as it fears pressure from Israel to retake complete control of Gaza. 

We are expecting more headlines on these developments.

If Iran, which is also selling lots of Oil to sponsor its proxies like Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen, were to reduce supply.

Let’s have a look at US Oil to spot why these factors coincide with a potential short or long-term bottom in the energy commodity. Read More: Nasdaq and tech sector open the week on cautious footingUS Oil technical analysisUS Oil 8H Chart US Oil 8H Chart, August 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking out to the 8H chart looks at the most recent move down that is finding support at the $62.20 level after forming a double bottom.The 8H RSI is also forming a bullish divergence as prices are now rallying. Let's have a closer look.US Oil 4H Chart US Oil 4H Chart, August 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking closer shows more detail of the ongoing breakout in WTI. The most recent up-move is finding some form of resistance at the 50-period MA but bulls have pushed outside of the downwards hourly channel. You can also look at the 4H RSI confirming the bullish divergence.Bulls are looking to break $64.70 to re-enter the prior month range, point after which the bearish momentum will be absent.Levels to place on your charts for US Oil trading:Resistance Levels63.84 imminent resistance/pivot (break above = more bullish) at the 4H 50 MA.$66 to $67 Mid-range levelhigh range resistance $67.30 to $68 – Confluence with 50 and 200 Day MAsSupport Levels$62.00 to $63 May Range highs supportWednesday lows $62.19 (current double bottom)$60.5 Low of May Range$55 to $57 2025 lows Main supportUS Oil 1H Chart US Oil 1H Chart, August 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Since the beginning of the morning session, bears have given up the short-term momentum.Prices are trying to push within the $64 resistance zone, acting as immediate pivot.It will be essential to see how markets react around that zone as it also was a point of breakout during the Israel-Iran tensions. Furthermore, the 200-Hour MA is acting as resistance there, if broken, there won't be much acting as resistance before the middle of the prior month range. ($66 to $67).Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Hovers at $3350/oz, Russia-Ukraine Developments in FocusUSD/CAD advances in the US session, trading above the 100-day MA as the potential for further gains grows. There are of course headwinds for the pair which could scupper a move higher in the coming days.Geopolitical Risk The important meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska ended on Friday without any major progress. However, Trump said on Monday that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy could end the war with Russia quickly if he chooses to. Trump, Zelenskiy, and key European leaders are set to meet later today to discuss ending Europe’s deadliest war in 80 years.The move has kept Oil prices on edge of late with WTI trickling lower over the past few trading sessions. Weaker WTI oil prices have weighed on the Canadian Dollar and could aid a move higher for the pair if the decline continues.Bearish FED Outlook Gathers Pace Confidence that the Federal Reserve is ready to cut two or three times this year sees investors happy to remain long risk assets. The increasing probability of rate cuts will also weigh on the US Dollar but for now it appears the Canadian Dollars weakness is overshadowing the US Dollar weakness. This sets the pair up for further gains.Wednesday sees the release of the minutes of the July FOMC meeting, where two dissented for a 25bp rate cut. Of greater interest, however, will be Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium this Friday afternoon.The Jackson Hole meeting could set the tone for the US Dollar moving forward.Data Ahead Which Could Affect USD/CAD The week ahead brings data from both the US and Canada. The FOMC minutes and the S&P PMI data will be released from the US which could stoke some volatility in the pair.Tuesday will bring Canadian inflation data which is cooler but not quite where the Bank of Canada would like it to be.Canada’s central bank is unlikely to speed up rate cuts as its preferred inflation measure stayed high at 3% in June. The Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate to 2.75% in July but plans to move cautiously due to stubbornly high service prices, tariffs, and weakening demand.This makes the CPI release tomorrow all the more interesting. A drop in inflation could aid USD/CADs move to the upside and facilitate a test of the 200-day MA. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - USD/CAD From a technical standpoint, USD/CAD is back above the 100-day MA but continues to grind higher.The varying risks for the pair is currently keeping any significant moves at bay but there is a growing probability that further upside may materializeThe pair is still showing a bullish trend after pulling back and holding support at a previous resistance level.Looking at the RSI and it is currently hovering around the 60 mark. This is another sign that bullish momentum remains intact.Immediate resistance rests at 1.3860 before the 1.4000 and 200-day MA at 1.4035 comes into focus.A move lower from here may find support at 1.3747 before the most recent swing low at 1.3588 comes into focus.USD/CAD Daily Chart, August 18, 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Client Sentiment Data - USD/CAD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Short on USD/CAD with 64% of traders net-short. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that the majority of traders are net-short suggests that USD/CAD prices could continue to rise in the near-term.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Nasdaq and the broader tech sector are starting the week more cautiously, with overnight futures showing the Dow holding up relatively well against the more risk-sensitive Nasdaq.(An informal invitation to consult our most recent analysis on the Dow)After weeks of steady outperformance from tech compared to other sectors, the latest dip could be simple profit-taking—but in the bigger picture, it looks like flows are shifting as the appetite for risk begins to cool.Markets are still waiting to learn more from the post Trump-Putin meeting developments, with EU leaders showing up to the White House today to discuss on the future path of action for the Ukraine-Russia ongoing war.Participants will look to learn more on this before showing more appetite to risk. There is also key data appearing this week with PMIs from all around the globe.Earnings season adds another layer of focus, with consumer giants like Walmart, Target, and Home Depot reporting this week and offering a read on household demand.Meanwhile, the most recent PPI data has already begun to weigh on sentiment.Let’s look at the charts to see if this cautious tone starts building into something larger. Read More: Cryptocurrencies extend their decline from recent highsNasdaq Daily Chart Nasdaq Daily Chart, August 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Nasdaq is showing consecutive doji candles at the higher bound of the May upwards Channel.Bulls will have to be cautious particularly as a Daily Bearish divergence on the RSI is showing up after months of relentless rallying.With momentum and sentiment appearing to shift, it will be essential to approach markets with a bit more caution, particularly with the PPI showing tariff-led inflation making its way to the US.The September rate cut is still not out of the picture and a new ATH has just been formed, showing that markets are still far from bearish.Nasdaq 4H Chart Nasdaq 4H Chart, August 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Momentum is still around neutral and the 4H MA 50 is showing as immediate support (23,650).Keeping this one in check is essential for bull/bear momentum analysis as we are nearing the mid-line of the longer-trend upward channel.Any bearish continuation may point towards the 4H MA 200 which coincides with the lower bound of the channel (around 23,200).Levels to watch for the Nasdaq: Resistance LevelsTop of Ascending Channel and Daily resistance 24,000 to 24,100Daily highs and ATH 23,986Friday highs 23,880Support Levels23,700 current Pivot Zone at the NFP highs (confluence with 1H and 4H MA 50)23,500 Support23,150 Main Support ZoneSafe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

There were a few signals traders could have spotted ahead of the ongoing selloff.After last Friday's warning from Bitcoin, with an all-time high leading to a direct retracement, the crypto market has started to make its way off its most recent highs. Ethereum staged a huge rally toward its record levels, but buyers failed to break through the $4,870 all-time high—a sign of hesitancy from the market that sellers enjoy. Altcoins were also a bit timid on the last leg of the rally showing some lack of depth in buying.And with cryptocurrencies still firmly in the risk-asset camp, renewed geopolitical headwinds (including uncertainty with the Russia-Ukraine war) are giving investors further reasons to cash out from the rallies.Let's see through BTC and ETH intraday charts if this should keep on going or if this is just a small retracement in the longer-term trend. A follow-up from our most recent crypto piece: Imminent profit-taking in Cryptocurrencies – What's the story Read More: Gold (XAU/USD) Hovers at $3350/oz, Russia-Ukraine Developments in FocusBitcoin 8H Chart Bitcoin 8H Chart, August 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin is $9,000 (7.20%) from its most recent ATH at $124,269, with the shape of the most recent highs appearing as a double top.Despite this warning sign, the ongoing 8H candle is showing a doji-indecision as shorter timeframes enter oversold territory.The current candle appears as dip buyers try to re-enter at the upward trendline that has served as support since the end of April.Prices are located right between the 50 and 200-period MAs – showing that the action is much less balanced than the previous uptrend.Levels to watch for Bitcoin trading:Levels for BTC trading:Support Levels:$114,500 to $115,500 rebound at the current supporting trendline$110,000 to $112,000 previous ATH support zone (MA 200 at $111,350)$100,000 Main support at psychological levelResistance Levels:$116,000 to $117,000 Pivot50-period MA $117,330Major Resistance $122,000 to $124,500Current all-time high $124,596Ethereum 8H Chart Ethereum 8H Chart, August 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Ethereum's outlook doesn't look as bleak, with the ongoing retracement hanging around the $4,200 to $4,300 consolidation zone (yellow box).With prices evolving in a current upward channel, sellers seem to have appeared at the higher bound just before the $4,870 2021 record. Buyers took the current rally to $4,790. As mentioned in the intro, a failure to breach the past highs is interpreted by sellers as lack of persistence from ETH bulls.Nonetheless, after reaching ultra-overbought levels, such retracements are healthy.Probability of a higher rebound from here are still decent as long as prices hold above the $4,000 pivot, and even higher probability if buyers take the short-term hand here.Levels for ETH trading:Support Levels:$3,500 Support zone$4,000 Main pivot (confluence with 50-period MA)$4,200 to $4,300 consolidation zone (currently testing)Resistance Levels:Current highs $4,793$4,700 to $4,900 All-time high resistance zone$4,870 2021 recordPotential resistance at 1.618% Fibonacci extension of April to July up-moveA look at the crypto Market Cap Total Market Cap Weekly Chart, August 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Total Crypto Market Cap is testing the 2024 highs.As long as profit-taking doesn't go below 3.50T, we can assume that this is just some healthy retracement instead of the beginning of a bear trend.Altcoins are retracing a bit more strongly, but this is common as they are the most risky of the already-risky crypto asset class.We will stay in touch frequently to see how this story develops.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold prices have rallied from an overnight low around the $3323/oz handle to a high of $3360/oz before settling around the $3350/oz mark.The precious metal looks set to continue its choppy price action at the start of a busy week.The recovery in Gold from the overnight low could in part be down to lower US Treasury Yields with the benchmark 10Y US Treasury yield falling from its recent highs.Russia-Ukraine Developments as Trump and Zelensky Set to Meet European leaders will meet with Zelenskiy and Trump on Monday to discuss a possible deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war.Under the proposed plan, Russia would give up small areas of occupied Ukraine, while Ukraine would give up parts of its eastern region that Russia has been unable to take. These ideas were reportedly discussed by Putin and Trump during their summit in Alaska on Friday.The question moving forward will be whether a peace deal will have a significant impact on Gold prices. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has been running for the better part of three and a half years. It will be interesting to see how much risk premium has been priced into gold as a result and if there will be a significant selloff if a deal is struck.Either way, this is worth monitoring.US Dollar Index (DXY) Outlook The US Dollar Index was higher this morning ahead of what is shaping up to be a busy week. Geopolitical developments, Fed Speak and Jackson Hole are all in focus.The DXY continues to trade at a key confluence level as rate cut bets from the US Federal Reserve continue to change.Money markets now see an 83% chance that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by a quarter point next month. However, traders have become less certain about a rate cut after recent data showed higher U.S. wholesale prices and strong retail sales in July.Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak about the economy and the Fed's plans at the Jackson Hole symposium from August 21 to 23.MUFG Bank predicts the Fed will cut rates in September but doesn’t expect Powell to clearly signal this during his speech. This will be Powell's last address at the conference before his term ends next May, as he balances the Fed's goals of keeping prices stable and unemployment low.A pivotal week for the greenback and one which could have implications for Gold prices as well.US Dollar Index (DXY) Source: Tradingview Gold Prices Moving Forward Gold prices continue to hold firm for now with downside potential limited thanks to a host of uncertainties still prevalent in global markets.Safe haven demand remains in play and this could in part explain Gold's resilience.The performance of Gold moving forward hinges on potential changes in rate cut bets as well as geopolitical developments.There is another concern for Gold prices. Given the rally over the last 18 months, Gold's value could lead to a pivot or rotation toward other commodities which continue to play catch-up to gold.So while we could still see some upside in gold, I’d say the bigger opportunity is elsewhere in commodities at this stage of the monetary-macro-metal cycle.Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD) From a technical standpoint, on the two-hour chart below we can see that Gold has rejected of the 50-day MA.Price is however trading just above a key area of support as market participants seek clarity.The RSI Period-14 remains above the 50 neutral level which is also a sign of bullish momentum.Either way Golds next move will need a catalyst in either direction for a potential breakout.Immediate support rests at 3331 before the 3314 and 3300 handle came into foucs.A move higher first need acceptance above the 50-day MA before the 3361 and 3375 handles come into focus.Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, August 18, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Client Sentiment Data - XAU/USD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Long on Gold with 67% of traders net-long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that the majority of traders are net-long suggests that Gold prices could continue to slide in the near-term.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.