I don't think anyone will be shedding a tear for the declines in private equity stocks but Blue Owl (which is notorious for software loans): -6%Jefferies -10.3%Apollo -8.4%KKR -7.3%Ares -7.1%Goldman Sachs -7%Morgan Stanley 6.6%The fundamental pitch of private equity is leveraged lending and buyouts. There were buyouts of software companies and clients of these firms are holding unlisted shares in these companies.What are those companies worth now? Many of them aren't even making any money but had large multiples of revenues but suddenly those multiples are collapsing. Even if companies are good, they're getting tossed out because software is toxic.Now some of these companies (like Blue Owl) will argue that they're lending against 30% of the value of these companies on terms of three years or less. But even if those loans turn out ok, the refinancing terms are going to be brutal in 2-3 years, if they can finance at all. Software companies don't have assets to borrow against so the private 'equity' side will get wiped out if any of these loans end in default. One of the parts of the market that are going to get caught up in this is life insurers and college endowments who were hoodwinked by private equity into taking allocations to software. They're even getting caught in the cross fire.What's particularly tough in all this is how opaque it all is. That makes it tough to find a bottom or get a sense of how things are changing in real-time. Even results of public companies are being ignored because the market is looking 1-2 years out on a presumption of AI disrupting them.Why today?The trigger today was that UK firm MFS failed. It's a mortgage lender but warned there could be a $1.3 billion shortfall in the collateral backing their loans, partly through double-pledging of assets. Barclays, Jefferies and Apollo's Atlas are among their lenders, arguing that loan due diligence has been lackluster.If that's the case -- or if fraud is widespread -- then the losses could be huge. Jefferies was also exposed to First Brands last year, which collapsed in fraud.Looking at the shares of private equity, there is some real fear unfolding. KKR is down almost 50% from early 2025 and is threatening to take out the Liberation Day lows.As Warren Buffett famously said:“When you see cockroaches in the kitchen, there are probably a lot more in the walls.”For now, everyone is throwing out the kitchen sink.The line here is whether these losses are going to be held in proper banks or just private equity. The drops in bank stocks today are worrisome.Long time Wells Fargo bank analyst Mike Mayo highlights that it will be six weeks before bank earnings and that right now everyone is "guilty until proven innocent" though he thinks the large banks will be fine over a one-year horizon. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

US Pres. Trump is speaking on Iran and says:Not happy with Iran, but were talks expected Friday.Has not made a decision on Iran and not happy with how they negotiate.Iran cannot have nuclear weapon.There may or may not be a regime change in Iran.Wants to make a deal with Iran.Asked about using military force in Iran, "don't want to but sometimes you have toIran isn't saying the golden words "No nuclear weapon"the price of crude oil has traded to the highest level going back to the beginning of August 2025. The high price today reached $67.83. The current price is trading at $66.57. The price is back below the 50% of the range since the 2025 high at $66.74. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q1 dipped to 3.0% from 3.1% last. In their own wordsThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2026 is 3.0 percent on February 27, down from 3.1 percent on February 24. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcasts of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and real government expenditures growth decreased from 8.5 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively, to 7.9 percent and 1.5 percent.The next GDPNow update is Monday, March 2. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The NASDAQ index pushed to a high on Monday but failed to extend above its falling 100-hour moving average, a rejection that triggered a sharp move lower. The decline reached Tuesday’s weekly low near 22,193, aligning with the top of a key swing support area.A subsequent rebound carried the index back above the 100-hour moving average, briefly increasing the bullish bias. However, momentum stalled at the 200-hour moving average, where buyers turned into sellers, leading to another sharp decline yesterday. Today, downside pressure continues, with the index trading lower by roughly 0.8%.What comes next?For buyers to regain control, the price must move back above and hold the 100-hour moving average near 22,851. Even then, upside momentum would still need confirmation through a break above the falling 200-hour moving average at 23,117, which remains the key technical pivot.On the downside, initial support comes in near 22,461, the low from last week. Below that level lies a broader swing support zone between 21,949 and 22,461. The lower boundary of this area also aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the May 23, 2025 low, increasing its technical importance.Sellers hold the near-term advantage, but additional downside progress is still needed to strengthen the bearish bias. For now, the 200-hour moving average remains the key pivot, separating a more bearish outlook from a potential return to bullish momentum. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

There is no sense over-analyzing price action today across markets. Yes, there is the usual software anxiety in stock markets but the overarching theme across bonds, FX, commodities and precious metals is simple -- angst about US strikes on Iran.That thinking has US 10-year yields below 4% for the first time since November while oil prices are up more than 2%. It's also lent a bid to precious metals and the US dollar, though (unsurprisingly) the loonie and Swiss franc are top performers. Now, no one really knows what will happen in the Middle East. Clearly, Trump is at least trying to put maximum pressure on negotiations via a massive US military build up in the region. Yesterday, various reports said negotiations were positive but we didn't hear that from the only person who matters: Trump.At the same time, what people are saying matters much less than what they're doing and the US has evacuated bases near Iran while moving massive amounts of steel to the region. I would highlight a pair of news items in the past hour or so, both of which have trimmed oil's gain:1) US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a March 2-3 trip to Tel Aviv.Would he be doing that at the same time bombs were falling? I tend to think not and others might argue that the announcement of the trip is meant as a diversion to get Iran to lower its guard.2) JD Vance spoke to ABC and said any actions would be limited."The idea that we’re going to be in a Middle Eastern war for years with no end in sight -- there is no chance that will happen," Vance told the Post. He described the range of options as strikes that would "ensure Iran isn’t going to get a nuclear weapon" or actions that could lead to a diplomatic solution.The nuclear bit is particularly notable as there is nothing there about regime change or about crippling Iran's oil exports. Yes, Iran could be forced to shut in via circumstances and could try to shut the Strait of Hormuz but I don't think they will take that course of action if they don't sense a US effort to topple the regime.All that said, Trump is about the least-predictable person in history so this could go in any direction. I don't fault those buying bonds in this environment but the long history of Middle East strikes and wars arguing for selling oil as the dust settles. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Silver is up nearly 6% as it looks to break out of a recent range.These are the best levels since the crushing rout on January 30. Notably, that was the final trading day of January and this is the final trading day of February. The chart suddenly looks more promising as it breaks above the early February highs.This will mark the 10th consecutive month of gains in silver as it benefits both from the USD debasement trade along with industrial electrification demand.The gains are impressive today given that we had so much volatility last month and what looked like a blow-off top. Instead, silver steadied early in February and is now marching back higher. That suggests insatiable demand for silver and previous metals. Gold prices were lower earlier but have turned around and are up $50 to $5236 in what will be the all-time highest weekly close for gold (if it holds).Today's US PPI report raised some fresh questions about the Fed's ability to cut rates. In addition, oil prices are up 3% today in a move that will add further inflation pressure to the March pipeline data (and beyond). The oil move is highly conditional on what happens in Iran so keep a close eye on that.Should the US get significantly involved in Iran -- particularly if it looks like it be an operation for many months -- then I would expect further large bids in gold and precious metals. "The idea that we’re going to be in a Middle Eastern war for years with no end in sight -- there is no chance that will happen," Vance told the Post. He described the range of options as strikes that would "ensure Iran isn’t going to get a nuclear weapon" or actions that could lead to a diplomatic solution.Just now, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a March 2-3 trip to Tel Aviv and that looks like a sign that nothing is imminent, though with war nothing is certain. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD moved lower in the latest hourly bar, testing Monday’s low near 1.3649. The break lower has been modest so far, but sellers remain in control as downside pressure persists.Earlier in the session, the pair briefly moved higher following the PPI release, but that rally quickly faded after the price tested the 100-hour moving average at 1.3686, which was closely aligned with the 200-hour moving average near 1.3680. The failure against this moving average cluster reinforced resistance and helped trigger the renewed move lower.For buyers to regain control, the price must break and hold above both the 100- and 200-hour moving averages. Until that occurs, the technical bias remains tilted toward the downside.On the downside, a sustained move below Monday’s low at 1.3649 would open the door for further selling, targeting 1.3630 initially, followed by a broader swing support zone from mid-February surrounding the 1.3600 level.Sellers are now pressing their advantage. The key question is whether they can maintain momentum and expand what has been a relatively tight trading range for the week. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was +0.5%Private construction +0.5%Residential construction +1.5%Non-residential construction -0.7%Public construction -0.5% m/mPublic construction +3.6% y/yGiven the jumps in shares of CAT and DE, there better be some construction spending in the pipeline. The annualized rate in the report is $2,168.8 billion, which is down 0.4% from last December. Private construction was 2.9% below the 2024 level.All the AI spending is in the pipeline and that should boost this in time but you start to wonder if the tariffs and economic uncertainty is pulling down investment elsewhere. This isn't a great report, though it's rarely a market mover.US equities are making up some lost ground with the S&P 500 trimming the daily decline to 41 points, or 0.6%. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewThe stock market today showcases a complex tapestry of trends and fluctuations. The technology sector is under significant pressure, with major players like Microsoft (MSFT) down by 2.63% and Nvidia (NVDA) witnessing a 2.24% decline. Notably, Broadcom (AVGO) is also down by 3.11%, pointing towards a widespread downturn within the tech space.On a brighter note, energy stocks like Exxon Mobil (XOM) surged by 1.78%, and Chevron (CVX) rose by 1.54%, buoying investor sentiment toward this sector. The healthcare sector reflected some resilience with Eli Lilly (LLY) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) both inching upwards by 0.26% and 0.23% respectively.Market Mood and TrendsInvestor sentiment today is predominantly bearish across technology, with negative news driving the downturn. Meanwhile, stability in the healthcare and robust performance in energy stocks suggest investors are seeking refuge in traditionally "safer" sectors during volatile periods. Consumer confidence seems to waver, as highlighted by a 0.52% drop in Google (GOOGL) and a deeper 1.91% decline in Meta Platforms (META). However, Netflix (NFLX) bucks the trend, showing an impressive 8.61% gain, possibly reflecting strong quarterly performance or strategic announcements.Strategic RecommendationsGiven today's dynamics, investors might consider re-evaluating exposure to the tech sector while looking to diversify within energy and healthcare. These sectors are currently displaying signs of stability and potential growth. Assessments of stocks like XOM and LLY could be favorable given their recent performance. Conversely, maintain caution around highly volatile tech stocks until clearer trends emerge. As always, staying informed with real-time data is crucial for navigating such a mixed market environment. Visit InvestingLive.com for continual updates and analysis. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The USDCHF is moving lower in North American trading, pressured by a softer US dollar backdrop as risk sentiment deteriorates. US equities opened sharply lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.78% and the NASDAQ falling 1.08%. At the same time, US yields are declining despite higher-than-expected PPI data, signaling markets are looking past inflation strength for now. The 10-year yield is down 4.2 basis points, with the 2-year yield lower by a similar amount.Technical pictureFrom a technical perspective, today’s upside attempt stalled near the converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages around 0.7740, where sellers stepped in decisively. That rejection gave sellers the green light, with downside momentum beginning late in the European morning session and extending into early US trading.The pair is now testing a lower channel trendline and swing support near 0.7692. A sustained break below this level would increase the bearish bias and shift focus toward the February 12–13 swing lows near 0.7669. Below that, the next downside targets come in at the January 28 and February 10 swing lows around 0.7629.What would disappoint sellers?A move back above 0.7708, defined by swing lows from Monday and yesterday’s trading, would weaken the immediate bearish momentum. A break above that level could trigger short covering and open the door for a rotation back toward the converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 0.7740. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

U.S. equity futures are under pressure this morning, with the Nasdaq (NQ) and S&P 500 (ES) both down 0.9%, while the Russell 2000 (RTY) is lagging further with a 1.3% drop. While the "Magnificent 7" are seeing modest declines led by Microsoft (-2.5%), the real story is a violent resumption of selling in the software sector.Investors are increasingly wary of companies transitioning their business models toward AI, punishing any signs of slowing growth or margin compression in exchange for long-term AI positioning.On CNBC this morning, they ran a pair of comments from software markers highlighting how "something changed" in December with regards to the capability of models in replacing coders. One of those was Block, which is up 15% today after laying off 40% of staff. Everyone is taking that as a sign of what's to come.The software sector is seeing some of its sharpest single-day declines of the year, driven by a "show-me" attitude from investors regarding AI monetization.Duolingo (DUOL) -27%: The language-learning giant is the morning's biggest casualty. Despite beating Q4 numbers, the stock is cratering on weak 2026 guidance. Management is pivoting toward a "growth over profit" strategy, investing heavily in free-user experience and AI features (like Video Call) to scale to 100 million DAUs. The market, however, is fixated on the projected EBITDA margin compression (from 29.5% to 25%) and slowing bookings growth.Zscaler (ZS) -13%: Even a "beat and raise" wasn't enough for the cybersecurity firm. While ZS topped estimates, investors were disappointed by the organic growth metrics. Much of the upside was attributed to the Red Canary acquisition rather than core organic acceleration, sparking fears of a "growth ceiling" in a crowded security market.Intuit (INTU) -3.1%: The financial software leader posted a robust quarter with 17% revenue growth, but a disappointing outlook for the upcoming quarter has weighed on shares. Investors are cautious about the high debt load used to fund AI initiatives and the slower-than-expected return to double-digit growth for the Mailchimp segment.While "SaaS" (Software as a Service) is struggling, the "Picks and Shovels" of AI continue to show diverging paths based on their balance sheets. Today's winner is Dell, up 11% on stellar Q4 results fueled by a massive backlog in AI servers. Dell remains a primary beneficiary of the hardware build-out.On the flip side, CoreWeave is down 11.5% on a wider than expected loss and $30 billion capex plan.Finally, NFLX shares are up 8.6% after bowing out of the race for Warner Brothers and taking a $2.8 billion break fee. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +2.6%GDP -0.2% q/q vs +0.6% priorReal GDP increased 1.7% in 2025Exports rose 1.5% in the fourth quarter, after increasing 0.9% in the third quarter.Imports rose 0.3% December GDP +0.2%The number might not be as bad as it looks as the fourth quarter decrease was largely due to withdrawals of business inventories following inventory accumulations in the third quarter.For the full year, Canada grew 1.7% in 2025 — the weakest pace since the pandemic year of 2020. The culprit? US-bound exports that never fully recovered after a rough Q2. This is a soft print on the surface and the annual growth figure will raise eyebrows, but the inventory story gives the Bank of Canada some cover to avoid reading too much into it. The BOC already cut four times in 2025, and with the household saving rate holding up at 4.9% for the year and compensation of employees still growing, it's not a recessionary alarm bell.Watch the per capita number though — that was flat in Q4 after +0.5% prior.Other good news was in the December report. The manufacturing sector rose 1.2% in December. A rebound in machinery manufacturing (+6.6%) largely recouped the declines recorded in the two preceding months.USD/CAD is flat on the day at 1.3679 but rose about 10 pips on this report. The loonie had been higher on the day before the data in large part due to the jump in oil prices today (because of expectations of a US attack on Iran). This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior YoY was +3.0% PPI M/M +0.5% vs 0.3% expectedPrior +0.5% (revised to 0.4%)Core PPICore PPI Y/Y +3.6% vs +3.0% expectedPrior +3.3% Core PPI M/M +0.8% vs +0.3% expectedPrior Core PPI MoM +0.7% (revised to 0.6%)PPI Ex Foor/Energy/Trade YoY 3.4% vs 3.5% last monthPPI Ex Food/Energy/Trader MoM 0.3% vs 0.3% last month (revised from 0.4% last month)For the second month in a row, the PPI came in higher than expectations. The data suggests the despite all the chatter about inflation moving lower, it is still sticky and is what is bothering people. The inflation from the pandemic is irrelevant. Cost/Push inflation continues to move higher, and that is not a good thing. US stocks are sharply lower with the Nasdaq down -245 points. The Dow is down -571 points. The S&P is down -63 points.Yields in the US are still lower on the day with the 10 year below 4.0% at 3.984%. 2 year yield is down -4.2 basis points at 3.405%.Gold moved up to test swing area resistance:Silver moved up to test the 50% of the move down from the all-time high to the low reached in February. WHAT THE US PPI MEASURES?The Producer Price Index (PPI) is an economic indicator that measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. In simpler terms, it tracks inflation from the perspective of the seller/business rather than the consumer like the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

TGIF.The USD is little changed to start the North American session as traders await the US January PPI report at 8:30 AM ET. Expectations are for a +0.3% MoM increase, while the YoY rate is forecast to ease to 2.6% from 3.0%. The dollar is trading mixed against the major currency pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD — as markets look for the next catalyst.EURUSDThe EURUSD has moved back above its converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 1.1800, a level that now serves as the key barometer for both buyers and sellers today.If buyers can maintain control above those moving averages, the next upside focus shifts toward the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range at 1.1830, an area that capped gains yesterday. Monday’s high at 1.1834 reinforces this resistance zone. A sustained break above both levels would strengthen the bullish bias and open the door toward 1.1860, followed by 1.1890.On the downside, a move back below the hourly moving averages would shift attention to a swing support area between 1.1760 and 1.1778. A break below that region would target the 100-day moving average near 1.1693 as the next major downside objective.For the week, the pair has traded within roughly a 70-pip range, highlighting a non-trending environment. Such compression typically precedes a larger directional move once a breakout occurs.USDJPYThe USDJPY moved lower during the Asian-Pacific session and briefly dipped below its 100-hour moving average (155.76), but downside momentum quickly faded. The pair rebounded and stalled against a swing resistance area between 156.20 and 156.28.Heading into North American trading, the 100-hour moving average acts as close support, while the swing area above serves as resistance. Traders will look for a decisive break on either side, with momentum likely following the direction of that breakout.GBPUSDThe GBPUSD has traded in a choppy range today. During the early European session, sellers leaned against the converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 1.3508, triggering a rotation lower toward 1.3475.On the downside, the 200-day moving average at 1.3445 remains the key technical level. The pair has tested this moving average five times recently, producing only modest breaks (about 8 pips) without sustained momentum. A clearer bearish bias requires a firm break and hold below this level.On the topside, a move back above 1.3508 would shift momentum back toward buyers, targeting resistance near 1.3537, followed by swing resistance zones at 1.3582–1.3590. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior +2.1%HICP +2.0% vs +2.1% y/y expectedPrior +2.1%Core CPI Y/Y +2.5% vs +2.5% priorWe have slight misses here but that was pretty much expected after the softer German states readings here. Having said that, the core measure matched the prior reading. The data won't change anything for the ECB. The market reaction has been muted given no change to interest rates outlook. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Rate cuts by year-endFed: 59 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)BoE: 52 bps (84% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)ECB: 8 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)BoC: 9 bps (96% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)SNB: 8 bps (89% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)Rate hikes by year-endBoJ: 46 bps (87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)RBA: 43 bps (83% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)RBNZ: 28 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)You can find last week's market pricing here.It's been a pretty lacklustre week amid limited news and data releases. Therefore, it shouldn't be surprising to see very small changes in in market pricing. The most notable moves were seen on BoJ and RBA side. We got a slightly dovish repricing for the BoJ after a Mainichi report revealed that Japanese PM Takaichi opposed further rate hikes during her meeting with Governor Ueda last week.Following the higher than expected Australian monthly CPI, traders firmed up expectations for a back-to-back RBA rate hike in March but the probabilities fell a little after Governor Bullock called for patience.Finally, we got a slightly dovish repricing for the Fed despite strong US data this week. This was most likely caused by the stock market weakness amid persistent US-Iran tensions as the US macro picture remains solid. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Gold remains supported amid US-Iran uncertainty, but downside risks linger with NFP nextOil prices remain supported amid US-Iran uncertainty; traders likely to hedge into weekendMajor currencies not up to much as we get into the final stretch of the weekBavaria February CPI +1.9% vs +2.1% y/y priorFrance February preliminary CPI +1.0% vs +0.8% y/y expectedSpain February preliminary CPI +2.3% vs +2.2% y/y expectedFrance Q4 final GDP +0.2% vs +0.2% q/q prelimSwitzerland Q4 GDP +0.1% vs +0.2% q/q expectedChina's Politburo: Development process of latest 'five-year plan' is "extremely unusual"Markets:US dollar steady, little changed; CHF leads, GBP lags on the dayEuropean equities steady, mostly little changedS&P 500 futures lower by 0.4%, Nasdaq futures down 0.5%WTI crude oil up over 2% to $66.87Gold flat at $5,186 while silver is up 1% to $89.69US 10-year yields down 3 bps to 3.997%Bitcoin down 2.2% to $65,949It was a relatively slower session with markets staying on edge as we approach the closing stages of the week/month.Geopolitical tensions remain in focus as traders and investors await further developments between the US and Iran ahead of the weekend. That is making for a more guarded mood in general, with the dollar holding steadier while risk trades stay on the defensive. Meanwhile, oil prices are staying underpinned with WTI crude up over 2% near the week's highs at $66.87.In the major currencies space, there wasn't much action to take note of. The dollar is keeping little changed mostly and more mixed with the bigger news being from Asia trading when China stepped in to slow the yuan appreciation by making it cheaper to buy up the dollar. That didn't translate to much influence in Europe though.EUR/USD is flat around 1.1803 with large option expiries in play at the 1.1800 mark. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is flat at 1.3475 despite political risks coming in as Labour were humiliated by the Gordon and Denton by-election results. Then, USD/JPY is down slightly by 0.2% to 155.83 but there wasn't anything in it with the pair ranging near the 156.00 mark on the session.Looking to equities, major indices in Europe kept a steadier mood with light changes and a more mixed showing. The selloff in Wall Street yesterday was largely due to tech shares and we're seeing that continue again today. US futures are keeping lower across the board with S&P 500 futures down 0.4% and Nasdaq futures down 0.5% currently.As for precious metals, there wasn't much in it either with gold flat at $5,186 and silver just up a little over 1% to $89.69 on the day.All eyes are staying on geopolitical developments, US stock market sentiment, as well as month-end flows in looking to wrap up the week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

While a lot of focus on the BOJ is turning to the outcome of the spring wage negotiations in the weeks ahead, ANZ is one to argue that the bigger picture outlook might be one that limits the scope for the central bank to stay on the tightening path. And the firm argues that it won't be from a shake up of the BOJ board nor pressure from the government. Instead, it is the very nature of inflation dynamics in Japan.ANZ forecasts that inflation pressures in Japan will begin to soften this year and are looking for core prices to ease back down towards the 2% level. As such, that will challenge the BOJ mandate of having to be able to "sustain" core inflation at that threshold. The firm notes that:"There is much to consider in Japan’s economic outlook. However, in coming months we expect domestic economic conditions will be consistent with gradual disinflation through 2026. Headline Consumer Price Index inflation was 1.5% y/y in January, and we forecast it will average 1.7% this year. We expect core inflation (2.4% y/y) will come down gradually, closer to 2.0%. We are of the view that the BOJ needs to proceed cautiously with respect to further tightening.We forecast only one more 25 bps rate rise this year, as Japan gradually moves away from the zero lower bound, taking the policy rate to 1.00%."That's slightly on the conservative side as opposed to market pricing, with traders currently seeing ~46 bps of rate hikes from the BOJ by year-end.If there is really going to be just one more rate hike left by the BOJ, they might want to get a move on with the opportunity window likely to narrow further once we get past March and even more so after June. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar continues to bounce around as macro and geopolitical uncertainty is keeping the market rangebound. The greenback strengthened yesterday after early reports suggested the third round of US–Iran talks had broken down, with Iran reportedly rejecting US demands. Later in the day, however, new headlines indicated that the discussions had actually made significant progress and that another round was scheduled for next week. The USD eventually gave back the gains. The potential US-Iran military escalation and the future Fed’s interest rates path remain the biggest risks for the US dollar. A military escalation will likely boost the greenback on severe risk-off mood. A hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations on stronger US data would also have a positive effect on the USD. Fed’s Waller placed a great deal on next week’s NFP report.CAD:On the CAD side, nothing has changed as the BoC remains in neutral mode and traders await new developments on the USMCA review front. Yesterday, Dominic LeBlanc, who is the Canadian minister responsible for US-Canada trade, said that private government to government conversations on USMCA are "not discouraging". Regarding separate bi-lateral deals, he said there have always been bilateral arrangements between the three countries. The signals have been mixed, but overall, slightly positive. The market is pricing some chances of a rate cut by year-end but those remain low. The economic data has been supportive of such stance with the labour market stabilising and core inflation hovering a bit above the 2.5% mid-point of the BoC 2-3% target range. USDCAD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD pulled all the way back to the monthly high around the 1.3725 level and stalled as the market got stuck in a consolidation. We can expect the sellers to lean on the 1.3725 resistance and the major downward trendline to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a upside breakouts to increase the bullish bets into the 1.3900 handle next.USDCAD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the recent price action formed a potential head and shoulders pattern near the monthly high with the neckline standing around the 1.3650 level. The buyers will likely continue to step in around the neckline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.3500 handle next.USDCAD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the neckline, while the sellers will either wait for a break below the neckline or above the resistance. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we conclude the week with the Canadian GDP and the US PPI data but continue to watch out for US-Iran headlines ahead of the weekend. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWOil prices surged yesterday after early reports suggested the third round of US–Iran talks had broken down, with Iran reportedly rejecting US demands. Later in the day, however, new headlines indicated that the discussions had actually made significant progress and that another round was scheduled for next week. The prices pulled back on the news but eventually rebounded as traders hedged into the weekend risk as you never know with Trump. This kind of back-and-forth is keeping the market rangebound near the highs with a bullish skew.If a military conflict were to erupt, oil prices would likely spike sharply, particularly due to the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies. Conversely, a clear sign of US military de-escalation or a breakthrough in negotiations between Washington and Tehran would likely be needed for prices to retreat toward the $60 level. For now, elevated geopolitical tensions are expected to keep the oil market well supported.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that crude oil continues to consolidate around the highs as US-Iran tensions persist. We can expect the sellers to continue to step in around the 66.43 resistance with a defined risk above it to target a drop back into the 62.36 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 70.50 level next.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price probed below the mid-range support around the 64.14 level but eventually rebounded. There’s not much we can add here as the sellers will continue to step in around the resistance, while the buyers will look for a breakout.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see the price broke above the minor downward trendline and pulled back to retest it before another push to the upside. The price action remains mostly rangebound so there could be many false breaks. From a risk management perspective, the sellers continue to have a better risk to reward setup around the highs, while the buyers around the 62.36 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we conclude the week with the US PPI report but continue to watch out for US-Iran headlines ahead of the weekend. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.