Gold prices have seen a sharp intraday reversal, erasing early gains to trade firmly in the red. The turnaround followed reports that central bank reserves might be sold to fund defense spending.Currently, Gold is trading at $5,105, down $35 (-0.65%) on the day.Technical Breakdown: The Resistance WallThe early session rally hit a familiar wall at the 200-hour moving average (MA), currently situated at $5,203.Rejection: The daily high reached $5,195 before sellers stepped in.Context: This moving average has acted as a consistent ceiling since Tuesday, when the metal broke below its lower channel trendline and the 100-hour MA ($5,230).Shift in Bias: Floor Becomes CeilingThe recent downside rotation has forced the price below a key support level at $5,116.Failed Support: This level had served as a "floor" since yesterday, with buyers defending three separate attempts to break lower.The New Reality: With the price now trading below $5,116, the short-term bias has tilted back to the bears.The Road AheadThe Bear Case: If momentum continues, traders will eye the $5,000 handle, which aligns with the 50% midpoint of the recent range and Tuesday’s swing low.The Bull Case: For the bulls to regain confidence, Gold needs a sustained move back above $5,116 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Only then can the market look for another test of the 200-hour MA. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Fed's Barkin is on Bloomberg TV and says:Productivity and corporate margins2.8% productivity growth is still a solid number.Strong productivity is helping firms maintain steady margins, allowing companies to absorb some tariff-related costs.Geopolitics and energy pricesToo early to assess the economic implications of the Iran war.Gas prices still matter for consumer sentiment and can crowd out other spending.If gas prices remain elevated, they could add to inflation pressures, and the Fed will need to judge how persistent that impact might be.Inflation outlookRecent inflation data has raised doubts about whether the Fed is finished fighting inflation.Labor market and economic activityRecent employment data has been reassuring.Monetary policy remains modestly restrictive, but demand in the economy remains healthy.Fed policy approachThe Fed will continue to evaluate policy meeting by meeting.Fed balance sheetBarkin instinctively supports a smaller Fed balance sheet, but only if it does not disrupt financial markets and the Fed can still maintain control of interest rates.Thomas Barkin is the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, a position he has held since January 2018. Prior to joining the Federal Reserve, he spent nearly three decades at McKinsey & Company, where he eventually served as the firm’s Chief Risk Officer. As Richmond Fed president, Barkin represents the Fifth Federal Reserve District, which includes Virginia, Maryland, the Carolinas, West Virginia, and Washington, D.C. He participates in Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings and contributes to discussions on U.S. monetary policy and the economic outlook.Barkin is not a voting member of the FOMC in 2026, as the regional Fed presidents rotate voting rights each year. Although he participates in policy discussions, he does not have a vote this year. In terms of policy stance, Barkin is generally viewed as centrist with a mildly hawkish lean. He often emphasizes the importance of ensuring inflation returns sustainably to the Fed’s 2% target and tends to support a cautious, data-dependent approach before considering rate cuts. At the same time, he acknowledges risks to the labor market and the broader economy, which places him more in the middle of the policy spectrum rather than firmly in either the hawkish or dovish camp. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Unit labor costs for Q4Prior quarter -1.9% revised to -1.8%Unit Labor costs for Q4 2.8% vs 2.0% expectedMore details on Unit Labor costs from the BLS:Hourly compensation rose 5.7%, partly offset by 2.8% productivity growth.Year-over-year: Unit labor costs increased 1.3% over the past four quarters.Real hourly compensation: +3.1% in Q4; +1.3% year-over-year after adjusting for inflation.Labor share: 53.8% of output, the lowest level since records began in 1947.Current business cycle: Productivity has grown at a 2.2% annualized pace since Q4 2019, stronger than the 1.5% pace in the prior cycle (2007–2019).Productivity for Q4Prior quarter 4.9% revised higher to 5.2%Productivity Q4 2.8% vs 1.9% expectedAnnual average productivity increased 2.2 percent from 2024 to 2025.U.S. Labor Productivity (Quarterly) Labor productivity measures how efficiently the economy produces goods and services relative to the labor used. It is calculated as real output per hour worked and is reported quarterly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, mainly for the nonfarm business sector. Rising productivity means more output is being produced with fewer hours worked, which supports economic growth and can help keep inflation pressures contained.U.S. Unit Labor Costs (Quarterly) Unit labor costs measure the labor cost required to produce one unit of output. The metric compares worker compensation with productivity and is also released quarterly in the BLS Productivity and Costs report. Unit labor costs tend to rise when wages increase faster than productivity and are closely watched as a potential indicator of underlying inflation pressures. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Import Prices:Prior month import prices 0.1% revised higher to 0.2%Import prices MoM for January 0.2% vs 0.2% expectedImport Prices YoY x.x% vs 0.0% last monthExport Prices:Prior month export prices 0.3% revised higher to 0.6%Export prices MoM 0.6% vs 0.3%.The U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes are released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and measure how prices are changing for goods and services traded between the United States and the rest of the world.Import prices track the average change in prices paid by U.S. buyers for goods and services purchased from foreign producers. Export prices measure the average change in prices received by U.S. producers for goods and services sold to foreign buyers.The report is based on a representative basket of internationally traded products. Prices are collected from U.S. importers and exporters and are used to calculate index values that track price changes over time. The data are typically broken down into several categories, including overall import prices, import prices excluding fuel, fuel imports, export prices for agricultural products, and export prices for non-agricultural goods.Economists and market participants watch the report because it provides insight into global inflation pressures, currency effects, and trade competitiveness. Rising import prices can signal increasing cost pressures for U.S. businesses and potentially feed into broader inflation, while export price changes help gauge the competitiveness of U.S. goods in global markets.The indexes are also used in economic analysis to adjust trade data for inflation when calculating real imports, real exports, and GDP, making them an important tool for understanding the underlying trends in international trade. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was 212K (revised to 213K)Continuing claims 1868K vs 1850K expectedPrior 1833K (revised to 1822K)Initial claims beat, while continuing claims miss. They are both in the range of estimates though and not showing any material change. The market reaction has been minimal as the focus remains on the US-Iran war.Tomorrow, we have the US NFP report. The February jobs data up until now has been good as ADP beat expectations yesterday and the employment indices in the ISM PMIs have improved further.WHAT DO JOBLESS CLAIMS MEASURE?The US Jobless Claims indicator is a high-frequency economic report that tracks how many people are applying for state unemployment benefits. It is considered one of the most timely gauges of the health of the US labor market because it is released every Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, providing data that is only a few days old. The report, issued by the Department of Labor, is divided into two primary categories:Initial Jobless ClaimsThe number of new (first-time) applications for unemployment insurance filed by individuals who have recently lost their jobs.This is a leading indicator. It provides the earliest signal of a shifting economy; a steady rise in initial claims often precedes a recession, while a decline suggests the economy is starting to recover.Continuing Jobless ClaimsThe number of people who have already filed an initial claim and are still receiving benefits.This is a lagging or coincident indicator. It measures the "persistence" of unemployment. If continuing claims stay high, it means unemployed workers are having a hard time finding new jobs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The US Dollar is trading higher heading into the North American session. Investors are positioning themselves ahead of a 8:30 AM ET data dump, which includes Weekly Jobless Claims, Import/Export Prices, and Q4 Unit Labor Cost/Productivity data.Key Economic Forecasts:Jobless Claims: 215K expected (vs. 212K previously).Import/Export Prices: Expected to rise 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.Unit Labor Costs (Q4): Expected to rebound +2.0% after a -1.9% dip in Q3.Productivity: Expected to moderate to 1.9% (vs. 4.9% last quarter).Major Pair Technical AnalysisEURUSD: Range-Bound ConsolidationDespite being down -0.13%, the EURUSD has seen choppy, "two-way" price action.The Floor: Buyers emerged near yesterday’s low of 1.1576.The Ceiling: The recovery stalled at 1.1643, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of last week's decline.The Outlook: The pair remains confined within a 1.1576 – 1.1643 range.USDJPY: Bulls Reclaim ControlUSDJPY saw an early attempt to break lower, but the move failed to reach the 200-hour moving average or the 156.20 support zone.Resistance: Currently testing the 157.65 – 157.74 zone. A break above opens the door for a retest of the yearly high near 158.00.Support: To shift the bias back to the downside, the price must break below the 100-hour MA (157.098) and the rising trendline (156.91).GBPUSD: Sellers Maintain the EdgeThe Pound found support near the 1.3300 handle (yesterday’s lows) after an Asian session slide, but the recovery is hitting a wall of resistance.Key Resistance: The 38.2% retracement at 1.3375 is reinforced by the 100-hour MA at 1.3376.Bullish Trigger: Buyers need a sustained move above the 100-day MA at 1.3395 to reclaim control.Bottom Line: Unless those overhead levels are broken, the sellers remain in the driver's seat. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Iran is ready to abandon its nuclear program if the US makes a satisfactory offerIs this a hint that the US-Iran conflict might stretch on for much longer?ECB's de Guindos: Baseline scenario is that US-Iran will be a short conflictECB policymaker Villeroy: I do not see reason today why we should raise interest ratesEurozone January retail sales -0.1% vs +0.3% m/m expectedGermany February construction PMI 43.7 vs 44.7 priorUK February construction PMI 44.5 vs 47.0 expectedUS February Challenger layoffs 48.307k vs 108.435k priorA friendly reminder that we do have the US non-farm payrolls tomorrowMarkets:WTI crude oil up 1.5% to $77.20, Brent crude oil up 1.3% to $83.69S&P 500 futures down 0.2% but recover from 0.5% losses earlierCAD leads, USD push and pull but firmer overall nowGold up 0.5% to $5,163, Silver up 0.8% to $84.0810-year Treasury yields up 5 bps to 4.13%Bitcoin down 0.6% to $72,919The session started with markets throwing caution to the wind, with relative unease still due to the Middle East conflict.Then, the mood music improved on a headline by Sky News Arabia that Iran might look to abandon its nuclear program should the US make a good enough offer. That saw oil prices pull back a little with risk trades moving up and the dollar dropping. However, the reaction would prove to be short-lived.The fact remains that the US and Iran are still so far apart in terms of trying to negotiate a compromise any deal. It's the whole reason why this war started in the first place, that being talks have been going nowhere. And even in the latest talks last week before the conflict started, the gap between both sides look too far to bridge and Trump has refused to wait around.Missiles have launched and military action is in motion. It is almost implausible to imagine we go back to the negotiating table in all of this. Well, not at least in the immediate term.As markets reread the headline and digest the situation, the initial kneejerk reaction is seen fading a bit now. We're not quite back to the nervous mood seen in Asia but caution is back up in the air again.Oil prices were scaling up earlier in the day with WTI crude oil around $77.20 before falling off to $75.00 on the headline. Now, we're seeing a rebound back to above $77 again as markets settle back into the thick of things.Likewise, US futures also bounced with S&P 500 futures clearing losses of 0.5% to turn positive. However, that only lasted for a good hour or so and futures are now down 0.2% on the day.The reaction in major currencies saw the dollar give up gains but again, also just momentarily. EUR/USD moved up from 1.1590 to 1.1640 before falling back to 1.1610 now. USD/JPY dropped from 157.20 to 156.90 but has now jumped even higher to 157.47 on the day.In other markets, precious metals saw plenty of pushing and pulling. Silver was down by nearly 4% at the tail end of Asia trading to $80.60 but has now recovered to be up 0.8% to $84.08. Gold was flattish for the most part but is now sitting higher by 0.5% to $5,163.Looking to bonds, 10-year Treasuries continue to fall off with yields now up 5 bps to 4.13%. As oil prices stay elevated, inflation fears continue to outweigh safety flows when it comes to the bond market this week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Shifting focus to crypto, Bitcoin’s breakout earlier this week has paused near $69K as short-term pressure builds and traders digest the prior upside push. But underneath the headline move in BTC, the broader digital asset complex was showing a more nuanced recovery very early yesterday, with Ether quietly looking stronger on the margin.Then as yesterday progressed, we got the boom. Even though some crypto short sellers were in ego and could not ditch stubborness. Ethereum surged about 10% to 12% yesterday, reclaiming and holding above the $2,000 psychological level, a line many traders have been watching for weeks. Today, ETH is down about 1% from yesterday’s close, and that is exactly where the debate starts. Was that push above $2K simply a liquidity move to shake out shorts before another leg lower, or is it the early signal of the bigger bullish reversal crypto traders have been hunting for weeks, the kind that flips the conversation from “$50K next” back to “$100K is back on the table” across the wider crypto complex?At investingLive.com, we try to answer that question with more than just candle shapes and predictions. We combine traditional technical levels with order flow insights to estimate whether buying is actually being accepted, or whether the rally is running on fumes. Here is our Ethereum read for today using the 4-hour structure.As always regarding everything we do and write about, this is decision support only. Treat them as opinions. Trade at your own risk.Ethereum technical analysis on the 4hr chartThis is an excellent chart for understanding some intermediate technical analysis concepts. Let's break down exactly what this chart is showing and why the creator is concluding that the "bulls are good" (meaning the market looks favorable for buyers).Here is an educational breakdown of the components and the analysis shown in your image.1. The Basics: Asset and TimeframeAsset: ETH1! (Ether Futures on the CME). This represents contracts to buy or sell Ethereum at a future date, rather than the "spot" price of Ethereum itself.Timeframe: 4-hour (4hr). Each candlestick (the red and green bars on the main chart) represents 4 hours of trading activity.2. The Core Indicator: Anchored VWAPThe primary technical tool used in this chart is the Anchored VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price), along with its Standard Deviation bands.The Purple Line (Anchored VWAP): VWAP calculates the average price an asset has traded at throughout a specific period, factoring in volume (the number of shares/contracts traded). Anchored VWAP means the user started calculating this average from a specific, significant event—in this case, the "05 Feb major low." It shows the true average price of ETH since that exact bottom.The Green Line (Upper Standard Deviation): This is the +1 Standard Deviation band. It represents a statistical boundary above the average. In normal, sideways trading, prices tend to stay between the bands.The Red Line (Lower Standard Deviation): This is the -1 Standard Deviation band, acting as a potential support level below the average.3. The Volume ComponentAt the bottom of the chart, you see the Volume bars (pointed out by the blue arrows).Volume Bars: The height of these bars indicates how many contracts were traded during that 4-hour period.Blue Moving Average Line: The thin blue line running through the volume bars shows the average volume over time. Spikes significantly above this blue line mean unusually high trading activity.Why the Chart Author Concludes "Bulls are Good"Here is why that combination is a classic bullish (positive) signal:Breaking the Upper Band: Price usually respects the area between the upper (green) and lower (red) bands. When the price breaks above the green upper standard deviation band, it signals that the market is moving with unusual, aggressive upward momentum. The buyers are completely in control.Confirmation via solid Volume (and above its moving average blue line, see above chart): A price breakout is only trustworthy if there is strong participation. The blue arrows at the bottom highlight massive volume spikes in early March that occurred right as the price was moving up. High volume validates the move, suggesting large institutions or a large mass of traders are actively buying, making it less likely to be a "fakeout."In summary: The chart is showing that ever since Ethereum hit its major low on February 5th, the weighted average buyer is in profit (price is above the purple line which is the anchred VWAP), and the recent upward surge is so strong and well-supported by high trading volume that it has broken out of its normal statistical range (above the green line).Disclaimer: Technical analysis is a tool for interpreting past market data and probabilities, not a guarantee of future performance.Ethereum’s order flow analysis: What changed after the $2,000 reclaimWhen a market pops through a big psychological level like $2,000, the first move is often emotional. Shorts get squeezed, late buyers chase, and social sentiment swings fast. The harder part is what happens after - does ETH hold acceptance above the level, or does it fade back into the prior range?In this sequence, the internal behavior improved in a way that matters.1) The internal pressure shifted from sell-dominant to buy-dominantEarly in the run, selling pressure was in control. Then that pressure flipped, and buyers controlled the tape for a stretch. We saw multiple strong buy-dominant prints that were large relative to the earlier sell phase.Why this matters for traders:A simple bounce can happen on thin buying and still fail quickly.A structural shift happens when the market transitions from “sellers pushing” to “buyers absorbing and building.”The key takeaway: the earlier selling phase likely exhausted, and the response from buyers was strong enough to change the short-term internal regime.2) Value migrated higher and started to stabilizeThis part is easy to miss if you only watch candles.ETH built “accepted trade” higher in steps:Around ~1,975 earlyThen around ~2,075Then up toward ~2,175And it has been stabilizing near ~2,125Why this matters:If the market keeps returning to a higher zone and doing business there, it is a sign of acceptance rather than a one-off spike.Acceptance is what turns breakouts into trends. Without it, breakouts often become bull traps.So even though price is a bit softer today, the broader message is that ETH has been building higher value instead of immediately collapsing back into the old zone.3) Positioning and hedging activity increased, which often creates rotation riskWe are not going to talk about a specific futures positioning metric here, but the derivatives layer matters because it changes how clean or messy the follow-through can be.Across this move, positioning/hedging activity appears to have expanded by roughly 8% to 9%, then stabilized. That is constructive in the sense that it suggests greater market participation at higher prices. But it also often means you should expect two-way trade - rotations, pullbacks, and retests - instead of a straight-line continuation.If you trade options, this is the practical implication:Rising hedging demand can dampen trend and amplify chop as dealers adjust into both rallies and dips.If the move continues but the derivatives market starts relaxing quickly, that can signal the rally is losing “fuel.”The most likely scenario: Post-shift grind higher, not a straight lineScore: +3/10 is intentionally not aggressive. The move above $2,000 was meaningful, but the setup currently looks like a post-shift phase:Selling pressure fadedBuyers took control for a stretchValue migrated higherNow flow is getting choppy again, which often produces a sideways-to-up rotationIn other words, ETH can still be bullish without being clean. The most likely path is a grind higher with pauses, as long as ETH keeps acceptance near the newer value zone.The invalidation scenario: When the breakout starts to look like a trapIf ETH starts printing repeated sell-dominant flow again (not just one red bar), and the accepted zone shifts down, that is the “trap” pathway.A simple decision framework:If acceptance holds near ~2,125, dips are more likely rotations.If ETH fails ~2,125 repeatedly and value rolls under it, that opens a rotation back toward prior value near ~2,075.This gives you a clean map without needing to predict the whole week.Key watch items for ETH traders and investors1) Acceptance test near ~2,125This is the “line in the sand” for the current structure.You want to see:ETH trades around that area without getting rejected hardPullbacks stall and stabilize rather than accelerate lowerRed flag behavior:Quick pops above, followed by sharp sell pressureMultiple failures to hold the area on retests2) Flow confirmation on the next pushAfter a strong impulse, it is common to see a pause. What you want next is not necessarily a huge green candle - you want evidence that buyers return when ETH tries to lift again.If the next push higher happens on weak follow-through, rallies can fade even in a bullish environment.3) The options market “tell”If ETH pushes higher and the options market starts pricing higher short-term risk while price holds, it tends to support continuation. If ETH pushes higher and the options market relaxes quickly while price struggles to hold gains, it often fits a rotation or stall.(You do not need to be an options trader to use this. You just need to be aware that derivatives hedging can either support trend or create chop.)How to use this as a simple roadmap (especially if you are newer) for ETH todayCrypto traders often get stuck in binary thinking: “either it is going to $50K or to $100K.” Markets do not move that way. They build structure.So here is the practical way to use today’s map:Bullish posture: ETH holds acceptance near ~2,125 and the next push higher shows buyers returning. In that case, pullbacks are more likely rotations, and the breakout has a better chance of staying “real.”Caution posture: ETH repeatedly fails to hold ~2,125 with clear sell dominance and value shifts down. In that case, the market is telling you it is not ready, and ~2,075 becomes the next key magnet.That is the core decision support: not a rigid forecast, but a flexible framework that adapts as ETH reveals its hand.Decision support only. Trade at your own risk. Visit investingLive.com Crypto later today and this week. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

US-based employers announced 48,307 job cuts in February 2026, and that is down ~72% compared to the same month last year. Some good news is that through February, employers announced 156,742 job cuts in total. That marks the lowest January-to-February total since 2022. But when you put things into better context, it is the fifth-highest January-February total since 2009.The tech sector once again is the one seen slashing jobs the most with 11,039 job cuts in February. That brings the year-to-date total to 33,330 in 2026 so far. Of note, this marks a 51% increase to the 22,042 cuts in this sector announced in the same period last year.Challenger notes that:"Tech is responding to a number of pressures right now. AI is the big story, but there are also global regulatory concerns, a slowdown in digital advertising driven by tariffs and economic uncertainty, and higher costs to both employ workers and access funding, forcing companies to make difficult decisions."Adding that:"February’s dip is a nice reprieve from the elevated job cut plans to start the year. With US involvement in a growing war in Iran, the end of Q1 may bring more layoff plans as companies tighten belts amid uncertainty and higher costs." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar strengthened across the board on safe haven demand this week after the US-Iran conflict erupted over the weekend. The main driver though was the market’s realisation that rate cuts might not come as soon as expected. In fact, higher oil prices will eventually put upward pressure on inflation and the US data this week clearly showed that the economy has been re-accelerating since the start of the year and not slowing down further. Traders pared back their rate cut bets this week with the total easing by year-end now seen around 41 bps vs 58 bps on Friday. Tomorrow, we have the US NFP report and all the jobs data we got up until now suggests that we will likely get good data. INR:In the big picture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar. This week, the bearish momentum increased substantially due to strong risk aversion in the markets. The RBI had to intervene again today after the Rupee tumbled to new record lows. Supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and a renewed surge in global oil prices led traders to expect a negative impact to the Indian economy. In fact, almost 90% of India’s crude oil requirement is imported and 55% comes from the Middle East. A de-escalation could give the INR a boost in the short-term which will likely be a good opportunity for traders to buy the dip in the USDINR pair as the main uptrend will likely remain intact. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDINR tumbled today following the RBI intervention. Dip-buyers will be looking for opportunities on the lower timeframes to keep targeting the upper bound of the channel. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the top trendline to position for a drop back into the lower bound of the channel. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If the price gets there, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to extend the pullback into the 91.00 support next. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the buyers will be looking for a bounce around the trendline, while the sellers will look for a breakout. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US NFP report. Continue to keep an eye on the US-Iran war headlines as that’s what the market is focused on right now. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The consensus is for a softer reading in the headline non-farm payrolls figure, following the strong showing in January. The first month of the year typically has seasonal factors imbued and this time, we are expected to see job gains of 59k.One known downside factor is the United Nurses Associations of California/Union of Health Care Professionals (UNAC/UHCP) strikes, which will reflect around 31k striking workers over the payrolls reference period. The health physicians on strike will be absent from the payrolls figure having not worked through 26 January to 23 February. Of note, this will be the largest strike activity impact on the labour market report since October 2024 (the Boeing worker strike).As such, just keep in mind to factor in that number as that will eventually return in the March payrolls figure.Besides that, poorer weather conditions could have also been a drag on the reporting figures for February. Bad weather due to winter storms in late January could have adversely impacted the collection of the household survey. So, that's something to take note of amid concerns of data quality issues. Although, I would argue markets will still take the numbers at face value for the most part.As for the unemployment rate, that is expected to keep steady at 4.3% again. The January figure was 4.28% unrounded, which surprised to the positive side. That being said, analysts are flagging potential risks of a slight uptick to 4.4% on the month.Of note, the likes of BofA, Wells Fargo, and TD Securities all estimate the jobless rate at 4.3% but highlight risks of it coming in at 4.4%. Meanwhile, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs both anticipate the unemployment rate to tick a little higher to 4.4% as their baseline estimate.You can find the major analyst estimates as per Bloomberg's survey below (h/t @ MNI). I'll be back with more detailed previews tomorrow. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWOil prices remain supported amid the US-Iran war and the virtually closed Strait of Hormuz. The bullish momentum has waned though due to some de-escalatory signals in the past couple of days. Just this morning, the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister said that Iran was ready to abandon its nuclear program on condition that the United States presented a satisfactory alternative offer. Yesterday, we got a NYT report saying that Iran was secretly contacting the US to find a solution to end the war, although the Iranians dismissed the report as fake news. The market might have also been expecting a de-escalation sooner rather than later as the US stocks remained resilient despite the negative pressure. We might be one Truth Social post away from a strong relief rally if Trump announces the start of negotiations or that the US has reached all its objectives. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that crude oil extended the gains into the highest level since the last US-Iran escalation in June. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop back below the 70.00 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 80.00 handle.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the momentum has been waning into the 78.38 level due to high uncertainty and conflicting signals on the Strait of Hormuz. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to target a pullback into the 70.00 handle next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US NFP report. Continue to keep an eye on the US-Iran war headlines as that’s what the market is focused on right now. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior -0.5%; revised to +0.2%The breakdown shows an increase in retail sales for food, drinks, tobacco (+0.3%), offset by a decline in sales for non-food products (-0.2%) and automotive fuel in specialised stores (-1.1%). But relative to the same month last year, euro area retail sales is at least seen up 2.0%. The monthly trend: This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 46.4Residential building was the main reason for the drag in overall construction activity in February, being the weakest-performing segment (37.0) once again. That being said, there were also contractions in both commercial construction activity (46.5) and civil engineering work (41.0) with the latter slumping to its softest since September last year.S&P Global notes that:"A sharper downturn in house building was the main factor behind the setback for UK construction activity in February, following some signs of stabilisation at the start of 2026. Total industry activity has decreased in each month since January 2025 and the latest decline was faster than seen on average over this period. The reduction in output was largely due to sluggish demand conditions, but some firms also noted that exceptionally wet weather had disrupted construction projects. "Construction companies were hopeful of a turnaround in business activity over the year ahead, with optimism levels hitting a 14-month high in February. This was often linked to forthcoming new projects in the infrastructure and energy sectors, as well as projected improvements in broader economic conditions. "Sharply rising input costs were a challenge in February. The rate of purchasing price inflation hit a seven-month high as suppliers passed on rising raw material costs, especially metals." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The volatile trading continues on the week and it's tough to hold any intraday convictions. S&P 500 futures were down by as much as 0.5% earlier on but have now climbed back up to pare losses to be up 0.1% on the day.The only plausible headline I'm seeing that ties closely is one reported by Sky News Arabia, in citing Iran's foreign ministry as to saying that they might consider abandoning its nuclear program "if the US makes an attractive enough alternative offer".Quite frankly, the odds of that are almost nil I would say. We're already seeing both sides wage a war and Trump is not going to be patient enough to go back to the negotiating table. The gap between both sides were already too wide to begin with. Hence, that has what led us to where we are currently.As US futures bounce, European indices are also now turning positive with slight gains on the day. The DAX and CAC 40 indices are both up 0.3% currently.Meanwhile, the turn of the mood is seeing the dollar retreat once more. And there is a familiar kick to it with this being a repeat of what we saw in European trading yesterday as well. EUR/USD is now flat at 1.1630 after trading around 1.1590 at the start of the session. Meanwhile, USD/JPY has also slipped back lower to just below 157.00 after hovering around 157.20-30 levels earlier in the day.The volatile trading is also permeating through precious metals with silver now up 1.4% on the day to $84.60, after having dropped by almost 4% earlier with the low touching $80.60. Meanwhile, gold is also up 0.7% to $5,171 as traders look to try and hold a second day of gains after the sharp drop on Tuesday. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Sky News Arabia reported that Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said "Iran is ready to abandon its nuclear program on condition that the United States presents a satisfactory alternative offer".Yesterday, we got the news that Iran has been secretly contacting the US to reach a deal and end the conflict, although Iran dismissed those reports as fake news. These are clear signs of de-escalation, and we might just need the US or Israel saying that they reached their objectives to see the markets cheering.Following the Deputy Foreign Minister comment, the markets reacted in a positive way as stocks jumped, while the US dollar and crude oil weakened. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

We have to use different scenarios after Iran attacksBaseline scenario is that it will be a short conflictOther scenario is that it will be more protractedMarket reaction has been orderly ECB should change its policy stance if inflation expectations change as a result of the Iran warTo look out for any steady modification of inflation and inflation expectationsThe longer the war lasts, the bigger the risk that inflation expectations changeEuropean Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos has signalled that while market reactions to the US-Iran war remain "orderly," the central bank is prepared to pivot its monetary policy should the conflict begin to structurally alter inflation expectations.In a series of remarks outlining the ECB’s risk assessment, de Guindos emphasized that the duration of the conflict is now the primary variable for Eurozone price stability.The ECB is currently weighing two primary geopolitical scenarios to determine the future path of interest rates:The Baseline (Short-Term): A contained, brief conflict with minimal long-term disruption to energy markets or supply chains that doesn't require a change in interest rates.The Protracted Conflict: A more long lasting war that creates sustained upward pressure on energy costs and shipping logistics requiring a rate hike.The ECB is shifting its focus away from temporary price spikes and toward "steady modifications" in economic data. The Vice President noted that the bank’s policy stance would need to be reassessed if businesses and consumers begin to expect higher prices as a consequence of the new geopolitical landscape. For now, the ECB remains in a "wait and see" mode. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior 44.7This marks back-to-back decreases in German construction activity to start the new year, following a brief return to growth at the end of 2025. The civil engineering sub-sector recorded growth but that is in contrast to the sharp declines in work in both the housing and commercial segments.On the price front, average prices paid for purchases also increased with the pace there being a five-month high. That won't bode well when you piece it together with the likely increase in short-term prices amid the US-Iran conflict.HCOB notes that:“The recession in the residential sector has worsened again. Activity in commercial construction continues to fall rapidly, with the pace of decline slowing only marginally. In contrast, civil engineering has seen higher construction activity for the fourth month in a row. However, the pace of expansion has slowed significantly recently. Overall, the deterioration in the construction sector is also related to the relatively harsh winter, which is likely to have contributed to job losses after more staff had been hired in the previous months. “There is unlikely to be any growth in residential and commercial construction in the coming months. This is because the slump in new orders deepened further in February. Companies were also under pressure from particularly sharp rises in purchase prices. Higher diesel prices, among other things, are likely to have played an important role here. The war in the Middle East, which has propelled oil prices higher, does not bode well for inflationary pressures in the near future. “Subcontractors are also suffering from weak demand, with even less work than in the previous month and generally considered to be more readily available. However, in view of rising material costs, subcontractors have also continued to increase their prices, albeit to a lesser extent than in the previous month. “One ray of hope is the renewed brightening of the outlook for the future. Against the backdrop of ongoing and planned infrastructure projects and the expectation that next winter will allow for more construction activity, the value of the future activity index has risen to its highest level since 2020 and well over 50 points.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar strengthened across the board on safe haven demand this week after the US-Iran conflict erupted over the weekend. The main driver though was the market’s realisation that rate cuts might not come as soon as expected. In fact, higher oil prices will eventually put upward pressure on inflation and the US data this week clearly showed that the economy has been re-accelerating since the start of the year and not slowing down further. Traders pared back their rate cut bets this week with the total easing by year-end now seen around 41 bps vs 58 bps on Friday. Tomorrow, we have the US NFP report and all the jobs data we got up until now suggests that we will likely get good data. JPY:On the JPY side, nothing has changed as PM Takaichi’s opposition and, more importantly the data, haven’t been supporting a rate hike any time soon. The latest Japanese CPI fell below the BoJ’s 2% target, dealing another blow to the central bank’s efforts to further raise interest rates. The market is still pricing a rate hike in June at the earliest with a total of two rate hikes by year-end. This might turn out to be too optimistic. The Japanese yen will continue to weaken as rate hike expectations get pushed further out. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY stalled at the key 157.65 level as the sellers stepped in to position for a drop back into the major trendline. The buyers will need a break above the swing level to extend the rally into the 159.00 handle next. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price probed below the minor upward trendline but eventually bounced back above it. The buyers will likely continue to step in around the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the major trendline. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see the price broke above the minor downward trendline that was defining the pullback into the 4-hour trendline. The buyers piled in on the break to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will need to see the price breaking lower again to regain some control and target new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US NFP report. Continue to keep an eye on the US-Iran war headlines as that’s what the market is focused on right now. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the construction PMIs and Eurozone retail sales. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks or the market as the focus remains on the US-Iran war and increasing energy prices. AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, the main highlight is the US Jobless Claims data. Initial Claims are expected at 215K vs 212K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1845K vs 1833K prior. The data has been improving steadily since the start of the year, especially on the continuing claims side, which could lead to a lower unemployment rate.The ADP yesterday beat expectations and the employment components in the ISM PMIs have improved further. Everything suggests that the labour market is indeed stabilising and the NFP report tomorrow might surprise to the upside again. CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS08:50 GMT/03:50 ET - ECB's de Guindos (neutral - voter)09:35 GMT/04:35 ET - ECB's Rehn (dovish - voter)10:00 GMT/05:00 ET - ECB's Nagel (neutral - voter)17:00 GMT/12:00 ET - ECB President Lagarde (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.