Discover our Weekly Market Outlook, exploring themes and events that forged financial flows throughout the week.This week saw the commencement of large wartime impacts on volatility. With the FOMC coming up, it's not easy to expect better conditions ahead.Get ready for next week's action by exploring upcoming events across global Markets.Week in review – Oil Wrought Havoc on Markets Now reaching the third week of the US-Iran-Israel conflict, ongoing disruptions to the Energy commodity Market are starting to pose grand problems.In short, higher Oil prices translate to higher inflation. Higher inflation translates to less profitability. Lower profitability and higher inflation translate into struggling Markets. Global Weekly Index Performance – Source: TradingView – March 13, 2026 Stock Markets have taken a hit around the globe. Having remained impressively stable until recently, they are now entering a tougher period ahead.As global Oil supply finds itself in jeopardy, companies will face significantly higher energy prices in the coming period; this effect should last at least as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains in de facto closure (only a few boats and tankers, if any, are crossing every day). Strait of Hormuz Traffic – Source: Bloomberg – March 13, 2026 The issue is that Markets are starting to reprice the prolonged inflationary effect of such prices – the 1970s consecutive petrol crises taught painful lessons.After the Oil embargos during that decade, stagflation brought heavy pain to consumers and global markets – and the effects lasted about 10 years, culminating in a significant economic cooldown in the early 80s.With many ships attacked throughout the week, WTI went from about $80 to today's $98 – This doesn't even mention the 30% up and down swings in WTI prices since Monday. WTI Oil Prices since End February – Source: TradingView – March 13, 2026 To put things into perspective, this is about 72% higher than the prices seen in early January. But the issue is that this only reflects Crude Barrels – refined petrol products have well exceeded this rise worldwide, particularly in Asia.The issue is that the narrative is shifting from a 4-5-week short war to the actual pricing of a much longer, more painful conflict. The media is blaming the US government for its lack of "exit plans".Hence, Inflation expectations are racing higher, Yields are rising above their 2026 peaks, and cuts are being priced out, replaced by hikes, making the overall situation look quite grim. Rate Cuts are disappearing – Source: Bloomberg – March 13, 2026 The US Fed Funds rate cut pricing went from close to 65 bps to the current below ~20 bps. President Trump is proving Powell right yet again.The only one enjoying the ride is the Petrodollar, which serves as the denominator for much more expensive Crude and loves the pricing out of cuts. The issue is that, at the current point in the economic cycle, this could pose heavy restraints on the economy.Tracking upcoming data (particularly labor and manufacturing activity) and next week's Fed communications will be essential to get a better idea of what's coming.The USD correlation with oil rises is once again pretty evident. Hence, it will be essential for traders to monitor the Dollar Index's movements to track overall Market flows in the coming period. Oil and Dollar Index Positive Correlation. March 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView On a brighter note (if we can call it such, there's nothing really bright about war), the US and Israel are making some strong advances to their strategy, with 90% of drone and ballistic missile launchers destroyed, and similar damage to the IRGC's military production sites. The idea is that if Iran doesn't want to throw in the towel, and the US and Israel insist on inflicting mortifying blows to its enemy, Markets will have to count on the latter to hope for a shorter conflict. To me, we are not at maximum Market fear yet, but there is a high chance that fears will get overblown. This could provide decent opportunities in the coming weeks.Oil and Strait of Hormuz developments are, for now, the two largest threats to general Market pricing, so keep the two in check. (And don't forget about the Private Credit trouble lurking out from far)Weekly Performance across Asset Classes Weekly Asset Performance – March 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Metals were the worst performers of this week's action, and by far.As long as Oil maintains a higher path, traders can expect similar flows ; That is, as long as Strait of Hormuz traffic doesn't pick up. Discover:Are we witnessing the Crypto dawn? – Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH) OutlookUnstable Markets as Oil just doesn't want to retreat – Back to $96 – Market CheckJet fuel market faces extreme supply tensionsChart alert: Dow Jones (DJIA) on the brink of major bearish breakdown below 200-day moving average at 46,330The Week Ahead – Major Central Bank decisionsAsia Pacific Markets – Royal Bank of Australia and Bank of Japan's Rate Decisions APAC Traders will see the release of China's Industrial Production Numbers and Retail Sales, two key releases to track the second largest economy and particularly if the effect of their local supportive policies have been working.This should have a slight influence on AUD prices, but some other releases should mark the strongest 2026 performance even more. Monday evening welcomes the Royal Bank of Australia's rate decision, when a hike is about 80% priced. This would bring the Australian rate to 4.35%, largely the highest for Major currencies (also erasing the 2025 very temporary rate cuts).Aussie Dollar traders will also look for communication hints towards Wednesday's Employment Data for Australia.Kiwi GDP data for 2025 will also finally release, so that should also get the NZD in the spotlight.Thursday will bring the final major Market catalyst, with the Bank of Japan's Rate Decision. A hike is about 10% priced in for next week; A surprise hike would surely change a lot to the current Yen weakness, but to me, it wouldn't be so uncalled for after recent JPY weakness.If the BoJ doesn't deliver, April will be the next rate hike target.Europe and UK Markets – An intense Thursday Session Europe will be mostly muted throughout next Week, but that wouldn't include Thursday's triple threat.Currency traders will have a lot to work with between the UK Employment Data, but most importantly the Swiss National Bank, Bank of England and ECB Rate Decisions, all in the same day (and in that order).North American Markets – Bank of Canada and FOMC Canada will open the week with its Inflation data, but the largest day for North American Markets will surely be Wednesday.The Bank of Canada and the FOMC will release their rate decisions, with no change expected.Keep a very close eye and ear to what Powell has to say during his Press conference.And don't forget the US PPI release! Keep a close eye on geopolitical developments, particularly those involving the US-Iran talks, as they are likely to continue influencing Commodity and broader Markets.Next Week's High Tier Economic Events For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only) March 13th Market Wrap Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today marked a decent rebound in Cryptocurrencies which really stand out from the recent Market trends.Apart from that, Oil bounces higher again despite its pullback attempt, and the US Dollar found new highs against most of its FX peers, particularly Antipodeans and Europeans.The Dollar Index is now trading above its November peak.In terms of economic data, releases were soft. Core PCE came in softer than expected (2.8% vs 2.9% exp), University of Michigan barely moved (which is a good sign these days), and Canadian employment shrugged by 89.3K (!).This could somewhat ease inflationary fears, but this would more likely have its effect on Monday (as weekend risk gets unrolled, if there's valid reasons to do so!)Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (13/03/2026): In today’s episode, we join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart in discussing the latest in financial markets, including the latest fundamental data releases from the US, UK, and Canada. We also look ahead to the busy week of trading, including rate decisions from the RBA, BoE, BoJ, BoC & SNB. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Cryptocurrencies may have finally seen their dawn after a catastrophic performance throughout the past 6 months.October 2025 saw new all-time highs for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and a few others, while the rest of the altcoin Market remained muted.However, having woken towards their weak tops right ahead of a winter of sentiment and economic data, Cryptocurrencies saw their own seasonal rejection. That came after a historic year-long run in Bitcoin that took it above $100,000 for the first time.The digital asset markets have been subject to considerable mockery, having performed the least well among the major asset classes in 2025. Still, Markets are playing the long-term game, and rotation flows can shift the narrative quickly. And that would also undermine their stellar runs since 2024.Oil is retracing from its previous session's $96 highs after a 10% run. That spike had a significant impact on the entire Market, as it scared investors by the prospect of higher inflation due to rising energy prices, which in turn affected production costs – but Cryptos seem to be living at their own pace.Since the conflict, while Global Stock Markets have struggled, Bitcoin and Ethereum formed a double bottom and remained relatively protected from the general deleveraging wave seen elsewhere.The 20 Millionth Bitcoin was mined on March 10 – and most of us (most probably) won't be there to see the last Bitcoin mined – Supply peaks at 21 Million – sometime in about 120 years. Bitcoin halving schedule towards 2050 – Source: CoinGecko For those who didn't know, Bitcoin's halving rate halves the reward per mined block as more supply is being mined. This creates a sense of scarcity over time, and it has already had its greatest effect.Discover: Latest crypto developments in March 2026Ethereum is also seeing its largest on-chain activity, now above its 2021 peak. This hasn't yet fully shown up in Crypto prices, as general sentiment remains relatively weak, but it is certainly helping the case at least withstand further selling pressure.Let's dive right into the intraday Charts with technical levels for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Current Session in Cryptos – March 13, 2026 (9:10). Source: FInviz Read More:Markets Today: Dollar and Oil Dominate as Traders Brace for US data barrage, FTSE 100 breaks key support zoneUSD extends its lead as Fed cuts price out: USD/JPY to new cycle highsSilver (XAG/USD) rejects triangle formation from Iran War – Breakout scenariosBitcoin (BTC) 4H Chart and Technical Levels Bitcoin (BTC) 4H Chart, March 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin is now evolving within a strong intermediate Bull channel, having also broken its 4H 50 and 200-period Moving Averages.This shouts a persistent rebound in the Crypto, particularly after the recent double bottom, currently breaking $73,000.On the short-run, bulls will want to break the early March $74,077 highs and close aboveThe top of the intermediate Channel is at $78,000On the longer run, it will be interesting to see what happens at $82,000, when Bitcoin tests the upper bound of its October descending channel – Breaking above could relaunch a Bull-trend.Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels:$70,000 Short-term momentum Pivot (50 and 200-4H MA)$60,000 to $63,000 Main 2024 support (recent double bottom)$59,935 February Lows$52,000 to $58,000 Next support and 200-Week MA ($55,000 Mid-point)$40,000 Mid-2024 breakout supportResistance Levels:March 4 Highs $74,077 (Bulls need to break!)$75,000 Key long-term Pivot (acting as resistance)$80,000 to $83,000 mini-resistance (50-Day MA)$90,000 to $95,000 Pivotal ResistanceCurrent ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000Ethereum (ETH) 4H Chart and Technical Levels Ethereum (ETH) 4H Chart, March 13, 2026– Source: TradingView Ethereum is also bouncing in a more progressive upward channel since its end-February double bottom.Similarly as BTC, bulls will want to mark a clean break above $2,200 (and session close optimally) to relaunch the Bull-momentum even further.Above $2,300, the short-term will be bullish for Ethereum.The longer-run bounce will be confirmed only above $2,600.Watch out for some slightly overbought RSI conditions and keep a close eye on overall Market sentiment (and Oil prices)Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:4H 200 MA $2,118Channel lows $2,000$1,700 to $1,800 Pre-Bounce 2025 Key Support (testing)$1,744 February 6 lows$1,380 to $1,500 2025 Support2025 Lows $1,384Resistance Levels:March 4 Highs $2,201 (testing)$2,100 to $2,300 June War support now Key Pivot$2,500 to $2,700 June 2025 Key Support now Resistance (Channel Highs)$3,000 to $3,200 Major momentum Pivot (Test of the $3,000)$4,950 Current new All-time highs Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Jet fuel prices surged nearly 90%, exceeding $1,500 per ton, the highest level since the start of the Ukraine war.The jet fuel crack spread climbed to almost $100 per barrel, indicating a shortage of refined product rather than crude oil.The Middle East plays a critical role in global fuel exports, accounting for about 22% of global petroleum product trade.Europe is particularly exposed, as about 25% of its jet fuel consumption is imported, with over 40% coming from the Middle East. In recent days, global oil product markets have experienced strong price increases, but the most dramatic move has occurred in the jet fuel segment. Prices for aviation fuel have risen by nearly 90 percent, surpassing $1,500 per ton, the highest level observed since the start of the war in Ukraine. The pace of this increase has significantly exceeded price movements in other refined fuel markets, suggesting particularly strong supply tensions in the aviation fuel segment. This sharp price reaction indicates that the problem lies primarily in the availability of the refined product rather than in crude oil itself. The chart illustrates the rise in prices of Brent crude oil and spot jet fuel in Northwest Europe since the beginning of the year. Source: Reuters / LSEG. Crack spreads point to tight product supply A key indicator highlighting the scale of the market tension is the crack spread, which measures the difference between the price of refined products and crude oil. In the case of jet fuel, this spread has surged to nearly $100 per barrel, reaching levels noticeably higher than those observed in the diesel market late last week. Such a high spread implies a sharp increase in refinery margins for jet fuel production. In practice, this usually signals a shortage of finished fuel products, as refineries can command a significant premium for supplying aviation fuel.The strategic role of the Middle East in refining One of the main reasons behind the current situation is the strategic importance of the Middle East in the global refining system. The region accounts for roughly 11% of global refining capacity as of 2024. This is considerably less than the share of the United States (19.6%), China (17.6%), or Europe as a whole (about 14%). However, the Middle East plays a far more important role in the international trade of refined petroleum products. In recent years, countries in the Persian Gulf have been building modern, export-oriented refineries, while refining capacity in many developed economies has been gradually declining.The Gulf as a major exporter of petroleum products As a result, the Middle East now accounts for around 22-23% of global petroleum product exports, equivalent to approximately 300 - 320 million tons annually. A crucial part of this system is the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 5 million barrels of petroleum products are transported every day. Around 2 million barrels per day consist of middle distillates, including jet fuel and diesel. This means that any disruption to shipping routes in this area can quickly translate into supply tensions and sharp price increases in global fuel markets.Europe’s particular exposure to jet fuel imports The importance of Middle Eastern supply is particularly visible in Europe, which is heavily dependent on imported aviation fuel. Approximately 25-28% of total jet fuel consumption in Europe is covered by net imports. More than 40% of these imports originate from the Middle East, making the region a crucial supplier. As a result, any disruption to exports from the Gulf region can almost immediately push jet fuel prices higher in European markets.Jet fuel emerges as one of the most sensitive energy markets Current tensions are only partially offset by the likelihood of reduced air traffic, which slightly lowers demand for aviation fuel. However, the decline in demand is too small to compensate for the risk of supply shortages. Consequently, jet fuel prices react particularly strongly to geopolitical developments and disruptions in global trade routes. This makes the jet fuel market one of the most sensitive segments of the global energy system, highly responsive to geopolitical shocks and supply disruptions in the international trade of refined petroleum products. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Geopolitical tensions drove a second consecutive week of losses for global markets.The US dollar surged to a three-month high amid increased safe-haven demand.Elevated oil prices intensified inflation fears, limiting the Fed’s capacity for rate cuts.FTSE 100 breaks support, is a test of 10000 incoming?Most Read: Chart alert: Dow Jones (DJIA) on the brink of major bearish breakdown below 200-day moving average at 46,330Asian markets faced a downturn this Friday, marking the second consecutive week of losses as geopolitical tensions continue to rattle markets. The primary catalyst is the escalating conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran; with hopes for a diplomatic resolution fading, oil prices have remained elevated, intensifying global inflation fears and dampening market sentiment. The impact was felt sharply across the region:Broad Indices: The MSCI Asia-Pacific index dropped 1%, totaling a 2.2% loss for the week.Regional Heavyweights: Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.4%, while South Korean equities, heavy with tech influence slid nearly 2%.Emerging Markets: The broader MSCI emerging market stock index sank 1.4%, extending a decline of nearly 8% since the war's onset in late February. Similarly, the EM currency gauge dipped 0.6%.South Korea and Taiwan have emerged as some of the most vulnerable markets in the region. Investors are aggressively scaling back exposure to artificial intelligence and other tech-cyclical stocks following a massive early-year rally that left many valuations overextended.The volatility in South Korea has been particularly intense, triggering lower circuit breakers twice in the last two weeks. Authorities have also been forced to activate "sidecar" measures, temporary trading halts designed to stabilize sudden, drastic movements in index futures and program trading Source: LSEG European shares down 1% European markets retreated on Friday, with both the STOXX 50 and the STOXX 600 dropping approximately 1%. This decline erased earlier momentum, leaving the benchmarks largely flat for the week.The downturn was most pronounced in consumer cyclicals, consumer defensives, and the financial sector. Notable laggards included Siemens (-2.9%), L’Oréal (-2.4%), and Banco Santander (-2.3%), while luxury giants like LVMH and Hermès also saw significant pullbacks.Conversely, the geopolitical climate provided a tailwind for defense and energy stocks. Companies such as Rheinmetall (+1.2%), Repsol (+1.8%), and BP (+1.7%) all recorded gains as energy security and military spending remain top of mind for traders.A standout performer amidst the broader sell-off was Zalando, which surged 3.6% to lead the STOXX 600. The online retailer’s jump extended a rally from the previous session, fueled by a report of upbeat quarterly results that bucked the general market gloom.How did FX markets react?The US dollar surged to a more than three-month high on Friday, marking its highest level since late November and securing a second consecutive weekly gain. The greenback's strength is being driven by its dual status as a premier safe-haven asset during the ongoing conflict in Iran and the United States' position as a net energy exporter, which shields it from some of the global oil price volatility.The dollar index rose 0.16% to 99.83, positioning it for a 1% overall increase for the week.This dollar dominance pressured major global currencies significantly:Europe: The euro slipped to $1.1501, its lowest point since November 21, while sterling dipped to $1.333.Asia-Pacific: The Japanese yen weakened to 159.69 per dollar—its softest level since July 2024, while the Australian dollar and New Zealand kiwi both trended lower, with the kiwi dropping 0.44%.Bucking the general downward trend in risk assets, cryptocurrencies showed resilience on Friday. Bitcoin gained 1.90% to reach $71,527.50, and Ether followed suit with a 2.23% increase to $2,109.03, suggesting some investors may be looking toward digital assets as alternative hedges or speculative plays amid the traditional market turmoil.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Commodities mixedGold prices are currently navigating a volatile landscape, heading for a second consecutive weekly decline despite a slight uptick on Friday.Spot gold rose 0.3% to $5,095.55/oz, while US gold futures for April delivery settled slightly lower at $5,100.20. While a dip in US 10-year Treasury yields has provided some support for the non-yielding asset, bullion has nonetheless lost more than 1% this week and over 3% since the conflict began on February 28.The primary headwind for gold remains the surge in energy prices; investors fear that persistent high oil costs will fuel inflation, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to implement near-term interest rate cuts.This bearish sentiment extended across the metals complex, with silver, platinum, and palladium all sliding by 1% on Friday.In the energy sector, oil prices are poised for significant weekly gains despite diplomatic efforts to stabilize the market. To ease supply anxieties, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a 30-day license allowing for the purchase of Russian oil products currently stranded at sea.However, analysts suggest this move has done little to address broader supply constraints caused by the US-Israeli war with Iran.Consequently, Brent futures climbed 1% to $101.48 a barrel heading for a nearly 10% weekly surge, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose to $96.67, marking a weekly increase of more than 6%.Read More:US Dollar Index (DXY): Technical picture as inflation and geopolitical uncertainty loomRetreating but Not Defeated: AUD/USD bulls find hope in technical support and hawkish RBAGBP/USD at the Crossroads: Will cable break the 1.3437 resistance?Economic calendar and final thoughts As the trading day continues, markets remain cautious. The rest of the European session will be quiet with Euro Area industrial production the only data release ahead.Beyond the geopolitical instability in the Middle East, upcoming US economic data is expected to further reinforce the recent hawkish shift in central bank policy expectations.Markets are closely watching the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE index, which is projected to climb to 3.1% year-on-year for January. This represents a concerning departure from the Fed's 2% target, especially considering the index had bottomed out at 2.6% last summer.This persistent inflationary trend severely restricts the Fed's capacity to cut interest rates this year, a topic likely to dominate the discourse at next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.In addition to inflation data, today’s release of US job openings for January is expected to provide further insight into labor market tightness. My thinking is that even a surprisingly soft reading is unlikely to dampen the current momentum of the US dollar or alter expectations for a restrictive Fed policy for very long.The Dollar Index (DXY) is currently hitting new monthly highs, with technical targets now set on last summer's peak in the 100.25/35 range. Given the high level of uncertainty surrounding the duration of the current global crisis and the inherent "weekend risk," traders appear reluctant to bet against the dollar rally or hold short positions heading into the break. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index continued its decline this morning breaking back below a key support area.Having printed fresh lows this morning at 10193, the index is on shaky ground with more losses potentially in store.For now though, this will depend on overall risk sentiment.The period-14 RSI on a four-hour chart rejected off the 50 neutral level which hints that bearish momentum remains very much intact.Immediate support rests at 10193 before the 10100 handle comes into focus.Resistance to the upside at 10269 needs to be cleared if bulls are to make a run for 10350 and the 200-day MA at 10464.FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, March 13, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Dow’s performance reversal amid geopolitical shock: The Dow Jones Industrial Average shifted from one of the best-performing US indices earlier in 2026 to one of the worst since the start of the US–Iran war 2026, falling 4.7% between 27 Feb and 12 Mar as global risk sentiment deteriorated.Financial sector exposure weighing on the index: Heavy weighting in financial stocks, particularly Goldman Sachs, has amplified downside pressure as rising oil prices increase stagflation risks and reduce expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.Yield curve dynamics signalling downside risk: A bear flattening of the US Treasury yield curve (10Y–2Y), driven by faster increases in short-term yields, is tightening financial conditions. Technically, the Dow is near key support at 46,330 (200-day moving average), where a breakdown could trigger deeper losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has undergone a remarkable change of fortune since our last report published on 13 February 2026, “Chart alert: Dow Jones (DJIA) potential recovery at 20-day MA support, bulls need to break above 49,940”.Dow Jones (DJIA) from outperformer to underperformer Fig. 1: DJIA & major global stock indices performances from 1 Jan 2026 to 27 Feb 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) Fig. 2: DJIA & major global stock indices performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 12 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) Before the ongoing US-Iran war (entering its 14th day) that started on Saturday, 28 February 2026, the DJIA was the second-best US stock index (+1.9%), trailed behind the small-cap Russell 2000 (+6.1%), which came in top and outperformed the tech-heavy S&P 500 (+0.5%) and the Nasdaq 100 (-1.2%) from 1 January 2026 to 27 February 2026.In a significant reversal, the DJIA is now the second-worst-performing US stock index (-4.7%), and the Russell 2000 is the worst (-5.5%), versus the S&P 500 (-3%), and the Nasdaq 100 (-1.7%) from 27 February 2026 to 12 March 2026 (see Fig. 1 & Fig. 2).Why did the DJIA fare the worst in the current period?Banking/financial stocks are the main trigger for such underperformance in the DJIA.The Financials sector is the top sector in the DJIA with a weightage of around 27%, and Goldman Sachs is the top price-weighted component stock in the DJIA with a weight of 10.4% as of Thursday, 12 March 2026.The recent swift jump in oil prices due to global oil supply disruption arising from the US-Iran war has increased the risk of a stagflation environment, in turn, reducing the odds of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in 2026.Bear flattening in the US Treasury yield curve can trigger further downside in DJIA Fig. 3: DJIA & US Treasury yield curve (10-YR minus 2-YR) major trends as of 13 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) The US Treasury market has adjusted to rising stagflation risks and expectations of a less dovish Federal Reserve. Since 27 February 2026, the 2-year US Treasury yield has climbed by 37 basis points (bps), outpacing the 32 bps increase in the longer-term 10-year yield.As a result, the US Treasury yield curve (10-year minus 2-year) has undergone a bear flattening, where short-term interest rates rise faster than long-term yields. Such a shift typically signals tighter financial conditions, which can weigh on economic growth and pressure bank profitability (see Fig. 3).Let's examine the short-term trajectory of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index and its supporting elements.Dow Jones (DJIA) – Oscillating within a steeper bearish trend, at risk of breaking below 46,330 Fig. 4: US Wall Street 30 CFD index minor trend as of 13 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the 47,460 key short-term pivotal resistance on the US Wall Street 30 CFD index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures), a break below the 46,330 key long-term support (also close to the 200-day moving average) damages the major uptrend phase of the DJIA in place since the October 2022 low (see Fig. 4).Further potential weakness to expose the next intermediate supports at 45,780 and 45,485 in the first step.On the other hand, a clearance and an hourly close above 47,460 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest the next intermediate resistance at 48,119 (also the pull-back of the former medium-term ascending channel support from 23 May 2025 low).Key elements to support the bearish bias on Dow Jones (DJIA) The price actions of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index have started to evolve within a steeper minor descending channel in place since the 26 February 2026 minor swing high of 49.837.The hourly MACD trend indicator has just flashed out a bearish crossover condition below its centreline, which supports the ongoing downtrend phase of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

AUD/USD fell over 1% from a multi-year peak as the US Dollar strengthened amid intensifying safe-haven demandThe hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may limit the downside, driven by escalating inflation pressuresThe pair has retreated to a key technical inflection point between the 100-day MA (0.7072) and 200-day MA (0.7051), where the RSI is now signaling a potential shift in momentum in favor of bulls.Most Read: Dow Jones tumbles 600 points on Strait of Hormuz tensions and private credit jitters, support at 46660 is keyAUD/USD fell 1% + on Thursday with the pair reacting to a resurgent US Dollar as safe haven demand intensified due to Middle East tensions. AUD/USD was trading at a multi-year peak and thus a retracement may be welcomed in some quarters.Hawkish RBA may limit downside Inflationary pressures are intensifying in Australia, where the Melbourne Institute survey recently reported that March Consumer Inflation Expectations climbed to 5.2%, the highest level since July 2023.This uptick from February's 5% reading underscores the growing challenge for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which had already taken a proactive stance in early February by raising the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.85%.As the ongoing energy crisis continues to drive costs higher, market speculation is mounting that the RBA and other global central banks will be forced to maintain an aggressive interest rate hiking cycle to contain burgeoning prices.According to the latest LSEG data, markets are pricing in around a 78% probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the upcoming March 17, 2026 meeting.Economic data ahead While the Australian economic calendar remains quiet this Friday, the focus shifts to a heavy slate of data from the United States.Markets are bracing for a series of high-impact releases, including the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric alongside January Durable Goods Orders.Additionally, the preliminary March reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will provide a fresh look at how the spike in energy prices and financial market volatility are impacting American consumer confidence. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Markets may remain at the mercy of geopolitical developments which could even overshadow tomorrow's US data. The intriguing part about AUD/USD is the technical picture where the pair is at a key inflection point.Technical Analysis - AUD/USD From a technical point of view, AUD/USD has finally pulled back from its multi-year peak around the 0.7187 handle.The pullback has brought the pair to a key inflection area resting between the 0.07072 (100-day MA) and 0.7051 (200-day MA) handles.The previous impulse move to the upside occurred after a breakout of the 0.7034 handle which rests just below the inflection area.AUD/USD Four-Hour Chart, March 13, 2026 Source:TradingView.com Dropping down to a one-hour chart and there is some evidence that bulls may already be returning.The price has slowed significantly as it approached the 0.7070 handle.The bigger hint comes from the period-14 RSI which has just left oversold territory. This is usually seen as a sign that momentum has shifted in favor of the bulls.An immediate hurdle on the H1 chart rests at 0.7100. Acceptance back above this level is needed before the 0.7130 and recent highs at 0.7187 come into focus.AUD/USD One-Hour Chart, March 13, 2026 Source:TradingView.com Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 12 The picture is now looking very different to the first part of the week.Yesterday, we warned of rangebound Markets except in the event of an Oil breakout. The irony is in the timing, as Crude didn't waste anytime to do so in the following hours. Closing at around $87 per barrel, the commodity quickly extended to $96 in the North American Session.The panic started at the beginning of Asia trading, with news of more ships being attacked in the Strait of Hormuz taking the conflict to a new escalation.Markets are very afraid of a prolonged war, and the effect can be seen in global Stock Indexes, falling between 1.50% in Japan to close to 2% in the US.Inflation is not the investors' best friend, and it even becomes a foe when it leads to the pricing out of much-expected Rate cuts. Pre-war, FOMC cuts were at an optimistic 65 bps and are now back towards the current 23 bps. Note: President Trump is speaking live and he is moving Markets, so tag in to check what he has to say. Metals are diving since.Things may change if higher energy costs materialize into lower economic activity, similarly as what had happened in 2008, but it is certainly not the case for now.WTI is closing near its session highs, but stalled its rise in the last few hours of trading.Heavy rounds of US Data will be coming tomorrow; Even if they won't allow a now very-forward looking Market to reprice inflation expectations, softer data could at least soothe rate-cut fiends. Read More:USD extends its lead as Fed cuts price out: USD/JPY to new cycle highsMarkets resist and volatility fades – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateDow Jones tumbles 600 points on Strait of Hormuz tensions and private credit jitters, support at 46660 is keySilver (XAG/USD) rejects triangle formation from Iran War – Breakout scenariosStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 12, 2026 Today's session is not a pretty one – As was warned in our past session Stock Market outlook, any rebound in Oil would have brought bloodshed to an already fragile investor sentiment.Except for a few local sector like Energy and Process industries, the struggle was widespread.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today's session wasn't pretty, with virtually all asset classes dropping against the US Dollar and WTI, up around 8.50% in the past 24 hours!.Metals are seeing imminent struggles, diving towards the session close – Could be moving on the latest Trump attempts to reassure the public of advances in Iran!A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 12, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Today marked yet another Dollar day – the USD is on top of the FX performance schedule, rising again from its positive correlation with the Oil.The Canadian Dollar also rose, which isn't too surprising but Yen making a return higher is quite surprising – Keep an eye on a potential reversal in coming sessions.Check out our latest JPY analysis to learn more.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tomorrow will be a banger for volatility traders, particularly with the streak of high-tier US Data.This includes US Core PCE, U-of-Mich Consumer Sentiment and much more.Don't forget Canadian Employment at 8:30 A.M. ET!Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Despite yesterday's more optimistic US CPI report, Markets are now focusing on a bleaker inflationary picture ahead.A major theme in Markets is the progressive repricing for a more persistent and damaging US-Iran-Israel war, which would have a long-lasting consequences on Oil prices. Polymarket Odds for the War to End before April 30 As you can see from the Polymarket odds, the odds for a 5- to 6-week conflict fell from 80% to the current 47%, adding to the (justified) fears of a damaging long-war.With the Iranian regime holding out stronger than expected, nominating a new leader in Mojtaba Khamenei and continuing its attacks on neighboring countries, it seems that it would either require more force or a new plan to really materialize the conflict into the desired regime change outcome.Participants and the general media are now roasting the Trump Administration for its lack of Exit plans. To me, this could be a strategy to create doubt, as we are "only" on the 13th day of the conflict, but people's skepticism regarding Trump's temerity is justified.Even his prior advisors warned of such, warning of a "self-afflicted wound" to the US Economy as Oil rallies back to $95.For those who haven't looked back yet, the consecutive Oil Crises in the 1970s were the prelude to the infamous Stagflation era, and the Market never jokes around with such economic trends. Oil and Dow Jones Inverse Correlation. March 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView If anybody is enjoying this at least, it's the Dollar bulls, as the Petrodollar has been fuming higher since the beginning of the Conflict.Rate traders have now priced out around 40 bps of rate cut pricing since the beginning of the conflict, with Rate cut odds towards end 2026 only around 23 bps. Subject to an almost 1 to 1 correlation with Oil since early March, the Greenback has kept outperforming major Forex currencies, in particular the subject of this afternoon's FX outlook, the Yen. Oil and USD/JPY Positive Correlation. March 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView We will dive into a two-timeframe outlook for USD/JPY as the pair comes close to the 160.00 barrier.An intervention could be near! Read More:Markets resist and volatility fades – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateSilver (XAG/USD) rejects triangle formation from Iran War – Breakout scenariosDow Jones tumbles 600 points on Strait of Hormuz tensions and private credit jitters, support at 46660 is keyUSD/JPY Daily Chart USD/JPY Daily Chart – March 12, 2026. Source: TradingView USD/JPY has been the most affected major pair since the beginning of the conflict, holding an almost perfectly negative correlation to the Oil prices.Asian countries are the major victims of Strait of Hormuz disruptions, particularly concerning Oil deliveries. Despite Japan having some of the most ample strategic Oil reserves, Yen was already facing some heavy scrutiny regarding heavy imports and their more elevated costs. The effect of higher forecasted deficits doesn't help.So if the Hormuz Crisis lasts longer, it could be a final nail in the coffin for the pair.Furthermore, the Japanese Yen is highly correlated to US Treasuries, which have been getting ransacked from the higher inflation expectations due to Japan being the nº1 owner of the Debt asset. The combination of both has led to the current 4.60% move higher in the major pair.160.00 is the level to watch, as the Ministry of Finance could really move the pin on the numerous threats of an FX intervention – Watch reactions as we regain the January highs.USD/JPY 1H Chart and Technical Levels USD/JPY 1H Chart – March 12, 2026. Source: TradingView Despite the staggering run in the pair, some profit taking is unrolling just after the pair wicked above January highs to 159.420.Reversing around the mid-line of the textbook bull channel, particularly at current trading levels could bring interesting mean-reversion opportunities.If the pair continues back above 159.50 and makes a 4H close above, the idea would get pushed back until 160.00, with potential intervention coming up at these levels.Levels to place on your USD/JPY charts:Support Levels:Bull Channel Lows 158.10Dec highs Major Pivot 157.40 to 157.65156.00 Pivotal Support153.50 to 154.00 Minor Support146.00 August Range Main SupportResistance Levels:Daily and 2026 highs 159.420159.00 to 159.50 2026 Major resistanceApril 2024 160.00 to 160.40 Major ResistanceJune 2024 Mini resistance 160.70 to 161.00 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar remains strong, driven by safe-haven flows from ongoing geopolitical conflicts and rising inflationary concernsExpectations for US rate cuts have fallen sharply from 66 basis points (bps) to around 30 bps due to the potential impact of high oil prices on inflation.GBP/USD is caught in a technical tug-of-war, facing immediate resistance at the 100-day moving average of 1.34376.Most Read: Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Why Bitcoin's recovery still lacks the ingredients for a decisive bullish turnGBP/USD has found support in early trade around the 1.3360 handle. A stellar rally from the Monday lows ran into resistance provided by the 100-day MA at 1.3437 as risk off sentiment returned and the US Dollar strengthened.Will USD strength keep further gains at bay? The rise in GBP/USD today comes as the US Dollar index retreats from a multi month resistance level at 99.57.If this level holds and DXY continues to decline then GB/USD could retest the 100-day MA and finally the psychological 1.3500 handle.Cable's fate is very much tied to the US Dollar at the moment, while the US Dollars is tied to overall risk sentiment as well as inflationary concerns. Given the steep rise in oil prices and the impact it may have on gasoline prices, markets expect a potential 3% rise in headline inflation next month.These developments are also keeping the US Dollar supported as rate cut expectations have fallen from around 66 bps two weeks ago to around 30 bps as of this morning.US Dollar Index Daily Chart, March 12, 2026 Source: TradingView What next for the Dollar and GBP/USD? Financial markets remain primarily focused on the duration of current geopolitical conflicts and the resulting supply shocks.Recent emergency measures intended to mitigate oil supply disruptions may have inadvertently signaled to investors that global leaders anticipate a prolonged period of tension rather than a swift de-escalation, a sentiment reflected in yesterday's volatile oil and equity performance.Furthermore, market sensitivity to optimistic military updates from the Trump administration appears to be waning, as investors grow increasingly skeptical of claims regarding the achievement of strategic objectives.While the fx market continues to be driven by immediate headlines, the broader signals emanating from equity and energy sectors currently suggest a bullish outlook for the US Dollar, especially if the conflict drags on for a prolonged period.Tomorrow's US PCE data may also take a backseat to the geopolitical situation as markets know that any inflation numbers at the moment are out of touch with the new reality. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - GBP/USD From a technical perspective, the pair is currently caught in a tug-of-war between a long-term downtrend and a significant horizontal support zone.While the British Pound has shown resilience, the US Dollar remains dominant due to safe-haven flows stemming from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and concerns over the Strait of Hormuz.Technical IndicatorsSimple Moving Averages (SMA):100-period SMA (Blue): Currently at 1.34376. This acts as immediate dynamic resistance. The price is currently trading below this line, confirming a bearish bias on the 4-hour timeframe.200-period SMA (Dark Blue): Sitting higher at 1.35543. The fact that the 100-SMA is below the 200-SMA indicates that the medium-term trend remains firmly to the downside.The RSI period-14 is currently at 51.20, which is usually a sign that momentum has shifted to potentially favor bulls.Trading OutlookBearish Case: If the pair fails to break above the 100-period SMA (1.34376), expect a retest of the 1.33788 support. A break below the recent low of 1.33332 would open the door to 1.3250.Bullish Case: A sustained move above 1.3450 would invalidate the immediate bearish structure, potentially leading to a test of the 200-period SMA near 1.3550.GBP/USD Daily Chart, March 12, 2026 Source:TradingView.com Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Extreme oil volatility amid geopolitical risks: West Texas Intermediate crude oil has swung violently during the ongoing US–Iran war 2026, rallying to a 4-year high of $119.54, plunging to $76.83, and then rebounding as fears of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz intensified.IEA stockpile release fails to cap prices: Despite the International Energy Agency announcing a record 400-million-barrel emergency reserve release by G-7 nations, oil prices surged again as Iran escalated retaliatory attacks on Gulf oil infrastructure and threatened tanker traffic.Technical trend remains bullish above key support: WTI has held its ascending trendline support with $88.36 as the key short-term level; holding above it keeps the bullish uptrend intact toward $102.25 and $116–$119, while a break lower could trigger a deeper pullback toward $81–$76. Oil prices have swung sharply in both directions since the start of the week, reacting to rapidly shifting geopolitical developments surrounding the US–Iran war 2026, which has now entered its 13th day. Heightened uncertainty over potential supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint, has kept energy markets highly volatile.On Monday, 9 March 2026, the West Texas (WTI) crude oil rallied hard by 30% at the Asian open to hit a 4-year high of $119.54/barrel before it tumbled by 35% to print an intraday low of $76.83 on Tuesday, 10 March 2026’s US session; due to US President Trump’s remarks that touted the “end of the US-Iran war is soon” and the expected historical amount of coordinated release of stockpile of oil reserves among G-7 nations of more than 183 million barrels released in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine.On Wednesday, 11 March 2026, the International Energy Agency (IEA) made the official announcement to release 400 million barrels from emergency oil reserves of G-7 nations, its largest ever release, with 172 million barrels coming from the US.Iran’s retaliatory attacks on Gulf states’ oil assets overshadowed the IEA’s historical stockpile release However, WTI crude oil surged by 13% despite news of a historic stockpile release by the International Energy Agency, reaching an intraday high of $96 during the Asian session on 12 March 2026 at the time of writing.Iran has continued to intensify its retaliatory attacks on the oil assets of other Gulf countries, on top of the “indirect closure” of the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has threatened to destroy any “unfriendly” oil tankers passing through the strait.Let's now focus on the potential short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of WTI crude oil from a technical analysis perspective.WTI Crude Oil – Held at ascending trendline support from 26 February 2026 Fig. 1: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 12 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) The recent declines seen in the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures) on Tuesday, 10 March, and Wednesday, 11 March have managed to stall at a minor ascending trendline support in place since the 26 February 2026 low of $63.68 that kickstarted the most recent bullish impulsive up move sequence of 87% to print the current 4-year high of $119.54.Watch the $88.36 key short-term pivotal support to maintain the current minor bullish up leg in the West Texas Oil CFD for the next intermediate resistance to come in at $102.25, and a clearance above it may see a retest on $116.56/119.54 next in the first step.However, a break with an hourly close below $88.36 negates the bullish tone to expose the next intermediate supports at $81.85 and $77.26/76.83. A break below $76.83 increases the odds of a further minor corrective decline to mean-revert towards $69.80 and $63.68 (also the 20-day and 50-day moving averages).Key elements to support the bullish bias on WTI crude oil The recent declines seen in the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures) on Tuesday, 10 March, and Wednesday, 11 March have managed to stall at a minor ascending trendline support in place since the 26 February 2026 low of $63.68 that kickstarted the most recent bullish impulsive up move sequence of 87% to print the current 4-year high of $119.54.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has formed a prior bullish divergence condition at its oversold region on Tuesday, 10 March 2026. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 11 After today's 8th war trading session, volatility seems to be taking another retreat.After the very chaotic Monday action, traders seem exhausted by the many headlines and prior trends.Trump's comments regarding that the War that is almost coming to an end are not moving Markets the slightest. After yesterday's downside fake-out in Oil, it seems that the commodity won't correct until a proper resolution is reached.The War drags on, and despite the number of victims around the Middle East, both sides don't seem to be putting the brakes on.Quite the contrary, actually – Iran has begun to plant mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the US announced that they took down about 28 Iranian mining ships, and UAV attacks on IRGC control points are beginning. This could provide another turn, particularly with Hezbollah launching a chaotic wave of attacks against Israel. Retaliation would not be surprising after the hundreds of rockets fired during the Middle Eastern night.What particularly concerns Markets is the fact that Iran began to attack ships crossing the Strait, with three tankers hit today. The news led to a rebound in WTI prices to the top of its $82 to $88 Range.Metals and Equities have consequently sagged throughout the session, with their usual inverse correlation holding well again – As long as Black Gold doesn't breakout, Markets are poised for range-bound action ahead. But things could easily take a fresh turn, so keep the latest news in check! Read More:The Canadian Dollar loves conflict – Has the CAD reached a long-term bottom?Markets resist and volatility fades – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateStock Markets drop despite low CPI report – Dow Jones and US Index OutlookOil surges again to $86 as Iran attacks ships in Hormuz – Intraday AnalysisStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 11, 2026 A few local winners in today's session include Energy Minerals, a few Consumer Durables and Tech names, but apart from that, the day has been relatively bloody.Financials really will need to be tracked closely as they follow yet another session lower – Any major developments there could drag Stock Indexes to some dark times ahead.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView It's not because Global Assets have stopped trending that volatility has dropped! You can see how many up and down crosses there has been in all asset classes throughout today's session. The main guide to the action remains WTI, which tend to drag everything but the dollar lower after its rebound.One trend to emphasize is the resilience in Cryptocurrencies throughout recent sessions. Keep a close eye on whether they can manage a rise from here, failing to mark any new lows.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 11, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs The Aussie Dollar is back on top again while the JPY takes another hit – the two main movers of today's session.The top and bottom performers are both moved by their highly correlated assets, with commodities helping the Aussie while US treasuries sagging are hurting the JPY.It will be interesting to see if this trend sustains on any potential Oil breakout.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tomorrow will be the calm before a major data storm on Friday.GBP traders will have to watch out for the BoE Governor Bailey's speech at 4:30 A.M in a Financial Stability Board conference – Interesting to see what he has to say with recent turmoil in Private Credit.Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global MarketsNorth American Stock Markets sagged since last week but remain quite resilientThe conflict in the Middle East continues, with the Strait of Hormuz creating its lot of anxiety Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.We are now into the 12th day of the US-Iran-Israel conflict, and Markets have seen their fair share of volatility.As explained in our past mid-week recap, Markets have remained surprisingly resilient despite a historic conflict. Traders logged in with a scary Oil price at the weekly open, gapping from $92 to $120 and taking risk sentiment to the abyss, but this entire move was short-lived. About a few hours into the North American session on Monday, Oil fully erased its 30% move, which, not surprisingly, led to a swift rebound from Wall Street.The price action is now more balanced than it was, but cracks are showing, with Crude prices remaining resilient in its newfound $80 to $90 range. Rising again in today's afternoon session, US Equities have started to correct – Tracking Oil will be necessary for traders looking to grasp directional clues from the broader asset class. Oil and Dow Jones Inverse Correlation. March 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView A major contributor to volatility is the repeated threats to ships, locked at both sides of the Strait of Hormuz.This morning saw the release of a bleak announcement, with three tankers being victim of drone attacks and adding to a spike in WTI, also, dragging daily sentiment. Add to it further threats from Iran to drop mines at the bottom of the Strait, and Oil will not get many reasons to break lower – at least as long as the war continues. Strait of Hormuz traffic from March 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView The military operation appears to be advancing, but doubts are emerging about the exit plan. If the US and Israel can't get the desired regime change, the war could drag on further. It seems that the Iranian population will have to do what it takes to topple the dictatorial regime once Basij and IRGC forces are depleted.In other Markets, Metals have remained in a sideways battle, dragged up and down by flows into and out of the Petrodollar, which itself correlates only to WTI prices.Since its Globex Open peak, the Dollar has actually lost some ground, but only against the rebounding Australian Dollar, with the AUD bouncing to new 3-year highs – More details just below.In terms of economic news, Markets largely disregarded the gigantic miss in Non-Farm Payrolls (-148K vs expectations!), which could really add to the anxiety if subsequent Labor reports confirm a new wave of weakening.Also, this morning saw the release of yet another drop in US CPI, now at 2.4% year-over-year, which could help the case for future rate cuts. More clarity will be awaited with Friday's Core PCE release.By the way, the Bureau of Labor Statistics recently reported difficulties compiling data due to recent staff readjustments – a hint of less accurate US Data ahead? This would explain, in part, the more confusing streaks in recent US major data. Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap. Read More:Stock Markets drop despite low CPI report – Dow Jones and US Index OutlookOil surges again to $86 as Iran attacks ships in Hormuz – Intraday AnalysisUS Dollar Index (DXY) rises as US inflation in line with forecastsNorth-American Indices Performance North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – March 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView Outside of some drops in the Toronto Stock Index and Dow Jones, Global Equities have remained surprisingly resilient in the latest stretch.Surprising considering the rise in Oil prices and global supply fears. Nasdaq is actually up 1% compared to last Wednesday, supported by a relative rebound in Tech – The higher-beta sector is getting priced to be less affected by the any rising costs in fuel.Dollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index 4H Chart, March 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dollar Index is remaining surprisingly resilient after its Friday double-top, with Bulls reappearing fiercely at the 4H 50-period Moving Average.It seems that Dollar short-positioning covering is dominating, particularly as long as Oil remains higher. Check out our latest DXY analysis right here.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels99.40 to 99.50 January ResistanceWar Spike 99.68100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highs100.376 November highsSupport Levels98.70 to 99.00 Key Pivot98.00 Key Mid-Range SupportMid-range Pivot 97.40 to 97.602025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors USD vs other Majors since last Monday, March 11, 2026 - Source: TradingView The US Dollar actually lost some ground against most FX Majors, as it remained particularly strong throughout the past week.The Aussie and Canadian Dollars, two currencies well positioned to profit from higher commodity prices, have shown impressive rebounds against the Greenback.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors CAD vs other Majors, March 11, 2026 - Source: TradingView. The Canadian Dollar is on its honeymoon, consistently rebounding since the beginning of the conflict.Don't forget to explore our latest in-depth coverage for the Loonie:Discover: The Canadian Dollar loves conflict – Has the CAD reached a long-term bottom?Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD USD/CAD 4H Chart, March 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/CAD responded precisely to the top of its descending channel, imminently responding to the 1.3560 Main 2025 Support.Any rebound here would look to test the 1.3630 Moving Average combo – selling off from there would point to new lows on the pair.On the contrary, having rebounded in the mid-level of the bear channel, a break above the MAs could point to higher chances of a Channel break.Levels of interest for USD/CAD:Resistance Levels1.3630 to 1.3660 Mid-Range Pivot1.3750 Pivotal Resistance (Channel top)1.3770 to 1.38 Key ResistanceMajor Resistance 1.3870 to 1.39 (January highs)Support Levels1.3550 Main 2025 Support (imminent rebound)October 2024 Support 1.3450 to 1.351.3480 USD-Crash lowsUS and Canada Economic Calendar to next Wednesday US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar The North American Calendar is quite packed until next Wednesday.Some highlights include Core PCE and U-of-Michigan Consumer Sentiment, with Canadian Employment on the Northern border.Next week however will see the release of both the Bank of Canada and FOMC releases on Wednesday. And don't forget the Canadian CPI on Monday.As always, keep a close eye on Middle East Developments.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (11/03/2026): Join us in today’s episode as TraderNick and Jonny discuss the latest on the Middle East, Strait of Hormuz, and current affairs in global oil markets. Otherwise, we discuss the latest numbers from the US CPI report earlier today. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

YOY inflation remained stable at 2.4% (matching expectations and the lowest level since May 2025).Core inflation remained unchanged at 2.5% annually, a multi-year low.Monthly CPI rose 0.3%, primarily driven by Shelter (0.2% increase), Gasoline (0.8% increase), and Food (0.4% increase).Future inflation releases (especially April's) will be significantly impacted by the surge in oil prices stemming from the Middle East conflict (Israel, Iran, US). The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose, continuing its upward trend, and remains swayed by developments in the Middle East.Most Read: Chart alert: EUR/USD bullish reversal, watch the 1.1673 upside trigger level as US CPI loomsThe US annual inflation rate remained stable at 2.4%, holding firm from January and matching market expectations. This figure represents a continued cooling of the economy, maintaining the lowest inflationary levels seen since May 2025.Monthly Fluctuations and Core TrendsOn a month-to-month basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged up slightly by 0.3%, a minor acceleration from January’s 0.2% increase. The primary contributors to this monthly rise were:Shelter: Increased by 0.2%, serving as the largest contributor to the monthly gain.Gasoline: Rose by 0.8%.Food: Increased by 0.4%. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics While the headline number (YoY) stayed flat, the underlying drivers saw some shifts: energy prices rebounded to a 0.5% increase, fueled by rising natural gas costs and a significant spike in fuel oil, which offset a moderating decline in gasoline prices.Conversely, the cost of used cars and trucks saw a steeper drop than the previous month, while inflation for essential categories like food and shelter held steady at 3.1% and 3% respectively.Meanwhile, core inflation, which strips out the volatile food and energy sectors to provide a clearer look at long-term trends remained unchanged at an annual rate of 2.5%. This marks a multi-year low, hovering near levels not seen since 2021.On a monthly basis, core prices rose by a modest 0.2%, showing a slight deceleration from the previous month and signaling that underlying price pressures remain largely in check.Outlook moving forward Today 's CPI print for lack of a better term is ‘out of touch’ with reality. The reason i say this is that the surge in oil prices and concerns around its impact on inflation all began on February 28.Thus any shocks to be felt on the inflation front may only start to filter through in next month's release, which should be a blockbuster one. The release in April could potentially make or break the case for rate cuts globally.If the war drags on to that date between Israel, Iran and the US, the impact may be huge on energy prices. Thus the longer the war drags on the larger the impact on inflation and thus rate cut expectations.For now, even this week's PCE data may take a backseat and not have a huge impact on markets. Not until some form of clarity on the Middle East situation comes to fruition.Market impact & US dollar index (DXY) reaction The data was not really a huge surprise and heading into the release the print was highly unlikely to have a major impact on markets.The DXY did however continue on its upward trajectory which began yesterday.The Dollar continues to sway based on developments in the Middle East. A daily candle close is still needed above the 99.57 handle if the bullish momentum is to continue.Immediate support rests at 98.72 before the 100 and 200-day MAs come into focus.If acceptance above the 99.57 handle is achieved, then the psychological 100.00 level comes into focus.US Dollar Index Daily Chart (Left)/15M Chart (Right), March 11, 2026 Source: TradingView Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Recovery after sharp decline: The EUR/USD rebounded from a four-month low of 1.1507 after earlier falling 4.8% from its 2026 high, as the euro stabilized following a sharp pullback in oil prices triggered by the International Energy Agency proposal for a large, coordinated oil stockpile release.Macro drivers turning supportive: Expectations of a more hawkish stance from the European Central Bank and widening Eurozone–US Treasury yield spreads are improving the euro’s outlook, with upcoming US CPI data seen as a key catalyst for further moves.Technical bullish reversal setup: The pair is forming a minor inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, with 1.1673 as the upside trigger. A break above it could push prices toward 1.1740–1.1774, while a drop below 1.1565 would invalidate the bullish scenario. The EUR/USD has declined by 4.8% from its current year-to-date high of 1.2083 on 27 January 2026 to hit a four-month low of 1.1507 on Monday, 9 March 2026, on the onset of escalating Middle East tensions due to the US-Iran war that drives a safe-haven demand for the US dollar.After the dramatic reversal of oil prices on Monday, where the West Texas crude oil tumbled by 35% from $119.54/barrel, a 4-year high, to trade below $90 as it printed an intraday low of $76.83/barrel on Tuesday, 10 March 2026, as the International Energy Agency proposed a significant historical coordinated stockpile release of more than 182 million barrels of oil.The energy-vulnerable euro has managed to find a footing as the EUR/USD attempted to recover to trade higher now at 1.1603 at the time of writing from Monday’s low of 1.1507.Meanwhile, the ongoing US-Iran war does not seem to be showing signs of abating as it entered its 12th day.On the monetary policy front, expectations have also shifted in a more hawkish direction for the European Central Bank (ECB). The Eurozone’s short-term interest rate swaps market has now implied a 40% chance of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the ECB by June this year, where the ECB has held its policy deposit rate steady since June 2025.Widening Eurozone sovereign bond/US Treasury yield spreads support a recovery in EUR/USD Fig. 1: 2-year & 10-year Eurozone sovereign bond/US Treasury yield spreads as of 11 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Interestingly, the 2-year and 10-year Eurozone sovereign bond/US Treasury yield spreads have staged major bullish breakouts to trade at -1.25% and -1.27% respectively at this time of writing, in line with the recent uptick in the Eurozone’s preliminary core inflation rate for February that inched higher to 2.4% year-on-year from January’s print of 2.2% (see Fig. 1).A further widening of the 2-year and 10-year Eurozone sovereign bond/US Treasury yield spreads may allow the EUR/USD to stage a further recovery, and the key risk event that is likely to trigger such a movement will be today’s release of US CPI data for February.Let’s now decipher the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the EUR/USD from a technical analysis perspective.EUR/USD – Tracing out a minor bullish “Inverse Head & Shoulders” configuration Fig. 2: EUR/USD minor trend as of 11 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the 1.1565 key short-term pivotal support on the EUR/USD, and a clearance above the 1.1673 neckline resistance (upside trigger level) of the minor “Inverse Head & Shoulders” may see a potential push up towards the next intermediate resistance at 1.1740/1774 (also the 20-day and 50-day moving averages). Above 1.1774 may see further strength towards 1.1830 (see Fig. 2).On the flip side, a break and an hourly close below 1.1565 negates the bullish tone for a retest on the next intermediate support at 1.1495/1470.Key elements to support the bullish bias on EUR/USD Since the start of March 2026, the EUR/USD’s earlier corrective decline has started to stabilize at the 1.1495/1470 support zone via the formation of a minor bullish reversal “Inverse Head & Shoulders” configuration.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has just retested and staged a rebound from its ascending support at the 36 level. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The IEA plans a record release of strategic oil reserves to cap crude prices, but ongoing US-Iran geopolitical conflict keeps energy supply risks high.Asian markets, led by major semiconductor stocks, saw a strong rebound, while European shares are set for a lower opening.The US dollar softened ahead of the critical US CPI release, but the Australian dollar surged on hawkish comments from the RBA.Most Read: US Dollar Index (DXY): Technical picture as inflation and geopolitical uncertainty loomGlobal markets found a sense of stability on Wednesday as a pullback in oil prices offered investors some relief, even as ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran fueled lingering concerns regarding inflation and global economic expansion.Despite this underlying anxiety, regional benchmarks saw a significant bounce back; MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (excluding Japan) climbed 1.4%, while Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi both advanced by 1.7%. South Korean equities specifically rallied 3.8% to reach a one-week high, though trading remained cautious with volumes staying well below the 30-day average.Similarly, Taiwan’s benchmark surged over 4%, nearing its own one-week peak.This broad recovery was primarily driven by sharp rebounds in heavyweight semiconductor stocks.In South Korea, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix saw gains of 2.5% and 3%, respectively. Meanwhile, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) led the charge with a jump of more than 5%, marking its strongest performance since early January and providing a much-needed lift to the regional tech sector.European shares eye subdued open European equity markets were set to open lower on Wednesday, retreating from the previous session's gains as investors faced a combination of geopolitical instability and energy market volatility.The joint US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, known as "Operation Epic Fury," entered its 12th day with no clear resolution in sight. This continued uncertainty exists despite President Donald Trump’s assertions that the conflict which he described as a "short-term excursion" could conclude "pretty quickly."In an effort to stabilize global markets, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has reportedly proposed the largest release of strategic oil reserves in its history, surpassing the 182-million-barrel record set in 2022.This move helped cap oil prices, which had recently surged past $100 per barrel following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.On the economic front, European investors are focusing on final inflation data from Germany and retail sales reports from Spain and Turkey, while also monitoring corporate earnings from major firms like Inditex, Rheinmetall, and Porsche. These factors combined to pull premarket futures for the Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 down by 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.The DAX Index is trading down around 0.60% after two days of gains. It will be intriguing to see how developments pan out on the US-Iran situation and whether or not the strategic oil reserves will be tapped. This will have a major impact on the direction of equities in today's session.How did FX markets react? The US dollar softened on Wednesday as currency traders remained cautious, waiting for clearer direction regarding the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran.Fragile investor sentiment has been driven by contradictory signals over a possible resolution, causing the dollar index to ease to 98.773 pulling back slightly from the three-month high reached earlier this week.In response, the euro strengthened by 0.18% to $1.163175, while sterling rose 0.25% to $1.3449. Conversely, the Japanese yen remained under pressure, trading at 158.14 per dollar, near its lowest level in seven weeks.The most notable movement occurred with the Australian dollar, which surged 0.86% to reach $0.718, its highest point since mid-2022. This rally was largely triggered by hawkish remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser.On Tuesday, Hauser warned that the recent spike in oil prices would likely drive inflation higher, signaling that the central bank may face increased pressure to raise interest rates at its policy meeting next week.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Gold prices climbed slightly on Wednesday as safe-haven demand persisted, bolstered by a temporary retreat in oil prices that eased immediate inflation fears and revived hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year.Spot gold rose 0.1% to $5,198.29 per ounce as the market awaited upcoming U.S. CPI data for further policy direction.In contrast, US gold futures for April delivery dipped 0.7%, while silver and platinum also saw modest declines. Palladium bucked the trend among precious metals, rising 0.5% to $1,663.39.Meanwhile, the energy sector remained volatile as oil prices rebounded following a massive 11% plunge on Tuesday. While the International Energy Agency (IEA) has reportedly proposed a record-breaking release of oil reserves surpassing the 182-million-barrel drawdown triggered by the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, investors remain skeptical that such a move can fully mitigate potential supply shocks from the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran.Brent futures climbed to $88.39 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 1.2% to $84.43.The scale of the proposed IEA intervention is historic, yet its long-term efficacy is being questioned by market analysts.Goldman Sachs noted that even a stockpile release of this unprecedented magnitude would only offset approximately 12 days of the estimated 15.4 million barrels per day currently at risk due to disruptions in Gulf exports.This narrow window of relief explains why crude prices began to climb again on Wednesday despite the IEA's efforts to saturate the market.Read More:US Dollar Index (DXY): Technical picture as inflation and geopolitical uncertainty loomChart alert: AUD/USD bullish breakout (finally) above 0.7140, new bullish impulsive up move sequence triggeredMetals reject their daily bounce after new Iran threats – Gold (XAU/USD) & Silver (XAG/USD) updateEconomic calendar and final thoughts As the trading day continues, markets remain cautious. The OPEC monthly report is the highlight from a data perspective in the European session.The US session brings the release of February's CPI data where analysts are anticipating a 0.3% month-on-month increase in core inflation, which would surpass the current market consensus of 0.2%.While such a print could place upward pressure on US Treasuries, the broader impact on the dollar may be limited, as the currency market continues to be more heavily influenced by volatile energy developments. The focus remains on whether inflation is stabilizing or if underlying price pressures are mounting ahead of future Federal Reserve policy decisions.Parallel to the inflation outlook, global energy markets have reacted sharply to a Wall Street Journal report indicating that the International Energy Agency (IEA) is readying a record-breaking release of oil reserves. This news has already pushed Brent crude back below $90 per barrel, with the proposed drawdown expected to exceed the 182 million barrels released during the 2022 Ukraine crisis.Estimates suggest that IEA members aim to compensate for at least 10 days of the 20 million barrels per day currently lost due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.Despite the potential for this massive reserve release to cap oil prices in the short term, market experts caution that such measures are only a temporary fix.Sustained lower prices likely depend on a formal military de-escalation, and some interpret the IEA’s aggressive move as a signal that a ceasefire in the US-Israeli conflict with Iran is not imminent.Consequently, the dollar is expected to maintain its current levels, as these mixed signals between stabilizing energy supplies and persistent geopolitical risks prevent any significant downward move. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index has recovered the gap down after the weekend and extended those gains before running into resistance at the 200-day MA.Immediate support rests at 10269 before Mondays low around the 10100 comes into play.For now though, this will depend on overall risk sentiment.The period-14 RSI on a four-hour chart has also rejected at the 50 neutral level, which hints that selling momentum is still strong.Resistance to the upside at 10456 (200-day MA) needs to be cleared if bulls are to make a run for the 10605 handle (100-day MA) and beyond.FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, March 11, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US dollar and oil prices experienced intense volatility due to Middle East tensions, initially spiking after strikes on Iran but cooling after optimistic remarks from President Trump.The upcoming US CPI print, which is expected to show headline inflation holding steady at 2.4% may be overshadowed.US Dollar bulls eye acceptance above the 99.57 handle before the psychological 100.00 handle comes into play.Most Read: Gold’s (XAU/USD) Tug of War: : Oil spike, rate fears, and the battle for controlThe US dollar found support late trade on Tuesday after it spent the majority of the day on the backfoot as hopes for a ceasefire in the Middle East grew.The greenback retreated from its peak after a period of intense volatility sparked by joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran. While those strikes initially sent oil prices to their highest levels since 2022 and drove a surge in the greenback, the market cooled significantly following optimistic remarks from President Donald Trump. On Monday, the President suggested that the conflict might conclude much sooner than originally anticipated, providing a much-needed reprieve for global markets.However, this de-escalation came with a firm caveat: Trump warned that he would ramp up military action if Tehran attempted to disrupt oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz.Despite the lingering threat, his comments were enough to soothe investor anxiety, leading to a sharp reduction in dollar buying.By Tuesday, the shift in sentiment caused oil prices to plunge approximately 15%, reversing much of the previous session’s dramatic climb.However, late in Tuesday's session it appears that market angst had returned as Iranian leaders struck a defiant tone. As a result, haven demand returned which provided the US dollar support while Oil prices rose around 8% for the daily lows around the $75.93/barrel mark.The move in the US Dollar Index leaves the greenback at a crossroads heading into tomorrow's US CPI print.US CPI data ahead Now of course, the latest increase in oil prices will not be in tomorrow's CPI release, with first signs likely to come in the March inflation release next month.Looking back at the inflation release last month, it was a positive one for rate cuts. YoY inflation in the US dropped to its lowest level since May 2025, 2.4%. Source: TradingEconomics Another drop this month though is unlikely to be met with the same optimism as the inflation release may seem somewhat out of date given the current month's developments.Markets will be watching to see what the print is as it may still have some impact on rate cut expectations, even if that proves temporary it could lead to a spike in volatility.Markets are currently anticipating that US headline inflation YoY will hold steady at 2.4%, with core inflation expected to remain resilient at 2.5%. Because the Federal Reserve has entered its mandatory "quiet period" leading up to the March 18th policy meeting, officials are restricted from providing public commentary on how they intend to navigate the current geopolitical crisis.This silence leaves investors speculating on whether the Fed and its global counterparts will view the recent spike in energy costs as a transitory shock to be "looked through," or as a fundamental threat to long-term price stability that requires a more aggressive policy response.The central question facing policymakers is whether these supply-side pressures will trigger a "second round" of price hikes across the broader economy. If central banks conclude that the conflict's impact on oil is temporary, they may maintain their current interest rate trajectories; however, if they perceive a genuine risk of inflation becoming entrenched, a shift toward higher-for-longer rates may be necessary to anchor market expectations.The next week should be key as we have the CPI, PCE data releases ahead of the Fed meeting. The question is, will the conflict still be ongoing at that point and what will the Oil price be?US Dollar Index - Technical picture as CPI looms From a technical standpoint, the daily candle has tested a key support area at 98.72 before dropping further to test the 100-day MA at 98.56.Since then, the index has seen the daily candle change course dramatically, on course to close as a hammer candle.Now while candlestick patterns are a good analysis tool, during periods like the one we are in now where a tweet by President Trump can change the entire market sentiment I would urge caution.Monday's daily candle close being a prime example. A massive shooting star candlestick which is looking likely to be followed by a hammer candle. This is a sign of the current indecision and impact the constantly changing narratives are having on markets.For bulls, a clean daily candle close above the 99.57 handle remains elusive. If bulls are to challenge the 100.00 psychological level, acceptance above this handle will be key in the near-term.Looking at the downside and support rests at the 98.56 handle where the 100-day MA rests before the 200-day MA at 98.33 comes into focus. Below that markets will begin to look at the 97.70 handle.US Dollar Index Daily Chart, March 10, 2026 Source: Tradingview Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

It's only Tuesday and we can already talk about an insane week!After yesterday's chaos in the Oil Market, commodities still have a few surprises in store. Today seemed to mark a new beginning in the current war-flows, with Crude crawling back to $76.50 around the mid-session, a 35% move lower!The ongoing profit-taking got stretched by the numerous dip-buying attempts and a falling volatility, but this didn't last long.Metals had been enjoying a strong session, helped by the smoother inflation expectations as stagflationary pressure eased – Combining higher yields and a strong US Dollar, the recent War flows hadn't helped the highly positioned metals to rise. The fact that the conflict also failed to gather proper risk-off Market flows insisted on these trends.Nonetheless, as Oil fell back below $90, Precious metals quickly found a renewed bid, with Gold back above $5,200, Silver tipping the $90 level, and Platinum up more than 3%, a first since early February. Current Session in Metals (15:05 ET) – Courtesy of Finviz. March 10, 2026 The issue with current moves, is that they tend to be erratic.US Intel revealed that Iran was moving to place water mines in the Strait of Hormuz, which could prove to be a nail in the coffin for an already non-existent traffic (despite some form of progress in recent days).The news quickly saw Oil prices rebounding back towards $84 and the action now bouncing from there! WTI Oil 15M Chart. March 10, 2026. Source: TradingView This led to a daily top in Equities and Cryptos, but more particularly in the subject of today's analysis: Metals.Let's dive into intraday chart and levels for both Silver (XAG/USD) and Gold (XAU/USD) to see if the recent news really market a session top or if a more widespread bounce was to come. Read More:Wall Street recovers as Oil corrects, opportunity or trap? – Dow Jones and US Index OutlookWTI (Oil) forms a tight range after Trump's comments – Oil Dynamics and Intraday AnalysisIs the Petrodollar trade over after Trump's comment? EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Dollar Index (DXY) overviewGold 4H Chart and Intraday Levels Gold 4H Chart. March 10, 2026. Source: TradingView These days, Markets aren't all about technical analysis (which still helps to find decent levels for decision-making, like entry and exits). The best way to navigate Markets are by looking at correlated and inversely correlated assets. By looking at Oil movements, one was able to catch bottoms in Equities and Metals – A catalyst detailed in our past week US Dollar analysis.So what about now? Since the Oil has marked its daily bottom, metals haven't been able to bounce, leading to the formation of a triangle formation.Breaking the 4H 50-Period MA would point to a quick test of the lower trendline around $5,050Any major break above the session highs ($5,238) would point to continue upside. This could lead to a retest of the $5,400 March highsLevels of interest for Gold trading:Support Levels:$5,180 4H 50-Period MA imminent support$5,050 to $5,100 Major support$4,850 to $4,900 Support (Mid-Feb Lows)Pivotal Support and December record $4,400 to $4,500 (Bearish below)Channel lows $4,200Resistance Levels:Session highs ($5,238) and $5,250 Pivot Zone (+/- $25)$5,400 Wartime ResistanceCurrent All-time Highs Resistance – $5,500 to $5,600Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart and Intraday Levels Silver 4H Chart. March 10, 2026. Source: TradingView Silver also managed a decent push higher but is finding pressure as Oil maintains its rebound.The key level to watch is $90:Having failed to break the level in today's action, odds are higher for a correction back towards at least $86Below this, $82 will be the next key Support on deck.For bulls, breaking above with a 1H close would point to higher chances of a breakoutLevels of interest for Silver trading:Support Levels:Mini-support $862025 Record Pivot (Acting as key support) $82 to $84February Momentum Support $76 to $77.50Major 2026 Support $70 to $72Resistance Levels:Key Range Resistance $90 to $92$96.47 March highsKey psychological resistance $100 to $104 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaway: Relative resilience in Asia: The Hang Seng Index and CSI 300 outperformed most Asian peers during the US–Iran war 2026, declining only -3.3% and -1.1% respectively from 27 Feb to 6 Mar, while markets like the KOSPI and Nikkei 225 suffered deeper losses amid rising oil-driven stagflation fears.Policy supports cushioning markets: Investor sentiment in China and Hong Kong improved after signals from the National People's Congress, where Li Qiang outlined a 4.5%–5% growth target and a stronger focus on boosting domestic consumption and reversing deflation risks.Key technical levels to watch: The Hang Seng Index rebounded from 24,765 long-term support and reclaimed its 200-day moving average. Bulls need a break above 26,350 to confirm a stronger recovery, while a drop below 25,385 risks a retest of the 24,765 support zone. The China and Hong Kong benchmark stock indices have outperformed their major Asian Pacific peers among global stock indices in the ongoing 10-day US-Iran war.Based on a reference period from 27 February 2026 to last Friday, 6 March 2026, where the start of the reference period is one day before the US-Iran war kick-started on 28 February, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and China’s CSI 300 shed -3.3% and -1.1% respectively, while the narrower China A50 was almost unchanged (+0.2%) (see Fig. 1). Fig. 1: Performances of global benchmark stock indices from 27 Feb 2026 to 6 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) In contrast, South Korea’s KOSPI plummeted 11% (the worst hit), and Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined by 5.5% due to stagflation fears from higher oil prices.China, Japan, and South Korea are significant net oil importers. The reason why China and Hong Kong stock markets have managed to take a lesser “bearish hit” from the recent upward spiral in oil prices (WTI crude oil staged a weekly gain of 35.6% for the week of 2 March 2026) was due to guidance on China’s next 5-year economic strategy during last week’s key National People’s Congress meeting.China’s leadership has set a lower economic growth rate target of 4.5%-5% for 2026, the least ambitious to rebalance China’s economy from exports, its current growth driver. In addition, Premier Li Qiang’s speech has made a subtle acknowledgment of deflationary risk towards the economy, and pledged to bring prices back into positive territories, and called for a modest rebound in the inflation trend (versus last year’s vaguer speech to get prices to a reasonable range).Hence, such statements and new growth targets from China’s leadership suggest that top policymakers are making domestic consumption have a more significant influence in driving China’s economic growth in the next five years.Let’s now look at the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the Hang Seng Index from a technical analysis perspectiveHang Seng Index – Rebounded back above the key 200-day moving average Fig. 2: Hong Kong 33 CFD index minor trend as of 10 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 3: Hong Kong 33 CFD index major & long-term secular trends as of 10 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) The recent -11% decline seen from the Hong Kong 33 CFD index (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures from its 26 January 2026 high to Monday’s 19 March 2026 low of 24,882 has stalled right at the 24,765 long-term pivotal support depicted on its weekly chart (see Fig. 3).Today, it has staged an intraday rebound of 1.6% and traded back above the 200-day moving average at the time of writing, reinforced by US President Trump’s remarks that signaled a possible end to the current US-Iran war.Watch the 25,385 key short-pivotal support on the Hong Kong 33 CFD index for a potential minor recovery in the first step to test the 26,350 key intermediate resistance.A clearance above 26,350 (also the descending channel resistance in place from 29 January 2026 high, and close to the 20-day/50-day moving averages) suggests a bullish exit and a possible start of a new bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 26,690 and 27,100 in the first step (see Fig. 2).On the other hand, failure to hold and an hourly close below 25,385 invalidates the recovery scenario for a push down to retest the 24,765 key long-term pivotal support.Key elements to support the bullish bias on the Hang Seng Index Today’s positive price reaction has occurred right above the 24,756 key long-term pivotal support and the reintegration back above the 200-day moving average (see Fig. 3).The hourly RSI momentum indicator has flashed out a prior bullish divergence condition at its oversold region before it stages the bullish breakout above its descending trendline resistance today (see Fig. 2). 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