Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for May 4 Market sentiment is turning negative again as the new week begins, and with gas prices rising, this reaction makes sense.Even though the usual link between markets and the economy has weakened lately, oil prices are once again driving investor decisions. Higher energy costs are becoming a reality, and with Crude Oil rising back above $105 (WTI) due to renewed geopolitical concerns, Markets are pulling back today. The strong momentum that pushed indexes to record highs in April is fading as big investors move to safer assets, especially in traditional stocks, while tech stocks are relatively still holding up for now.This sharp move away from risk comes after reports of Iranian attacks on the UAE, marking a serious and dangerous escalation in the Middle East. By hitting infrastructure in a nearby economic center, the conflict is spreading just as markets were hoping for a diplomatic solution. This is the largest escalation since the fragile ceasefire began on April 8, nearly a month ago.With diplomacy breaking down and the risk of a larger regional war growing, traders now have to quickly adjust for higher geopolitical risks:Metals have pulled back from last week’s highs. Global stock markets, especially those east of the Atlantic, have dropped. Cryptocurrencies are quiet but steady. Overall, there is a sense of uncertainty, especially ahead of the Non-Farm payrolls report coming on Friday.Since the energy sector is once again driving the broader market, traders will need to be especially careful with risk management as we move through this volatile phase of the conflict. Read More:,War fears tarnish Metals – Silver (XAG/USD) breaks $75 & Gold (XAU/USD) tests $4,500Stock Markets stumble from renewed Iran tensions – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday OutlookThe peace process is stalling ahead of April Non Farm Payrolls – Markets Weekly OutlookKey Earnings releases tomorrow (May 5 ) Earnings release for May 5, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, May 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView Market correlations are coming back strong as Institutions, traders and investors place their pawns for this new week and month.Crude Oil dictated most of the flows of the session, with particular suffering among traditional assets and Stock Benchmarks all around the world while higher beta Tech and Cryptos totally survived the crash test.This seems to be a new trend, as investors keep looking for local advantages to invest – Digital technologies are a natural bet, despite being quite extended, as these get shielded from rising petrol prices.But they will still be subject ot heavy pressure if the tone decisively sours – I expect to see safe-havens rebounding in such an occurrence.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, May 4, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs The US Dollar stepped right back to fade the unfruitful intervention from the Japanese Ministry of Finance which just keeps providing traders the chance to fade the lower move.Indeed, as long as Crude remains above $100, the Fed maintains higher rates, Japan is still under pressure and nothing really changes.However, the US Dollar also outperformed the rest of the FX board, so if the war really resumes, this could just be the beginning of another USD buying wave – Make sure to not get too attached to one view because things are changing fast these days!A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The next 24 hours will provide important tests for FX Markets.The first ones coming up in the coming hours, with the Australian PMIs to preview an important RBA rate decision. While rates are planned to stay put, communications regarding future will be closely watched.The US Session will also offer a few developments with ISM Services PMIs and ADP Private employmentAs always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations, or to be quite frank, their absolute failure which could materialize in heavy Market turmoil.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Silver and Gold can't sustain their previous momentum, seeing renewed bearish flows amid tensions resurfacingTheir inverted correlation to Oil and the US Dollar remains strong, with the two bouncing back to start the weekIntraday timeframe analysis for XAG/USD (Silver) and XAU/USD (Gold) Today, the Middle East conflict has entered yet another dangerous stage. Although this is the third week of the ceasefire, many now doubt it will hold. In the last 24 hours, Iran reportedly attacked several merchant ships and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz; The conflict has also widened, with direct attacks on the United Arab Emirates and major incidents in Abu Dhabi and Dubai.With these new tensions, the strong inverse relationship between precious metals, crude oil, and the US Dollar picks up again. Both the US Dollar and Oil prices have jumped at the start of the week, putting extra pressure on the metals market. Gold vs WTI Crude Inverse Correlation – Source: TradingView. May 4, 2026 Metals are once again trading more like risk-on assets. Unlike in the past, gold is not acting as a safe haven. Instead, as the conflict continues, the yellow metal along with its precious mates, have seen a steady decline throughout the war.The asset class is falling sharply amid today's worsening sentiment: Silver is down 5% on the session session, Platinum is now trading well below $2,000, and Copper prices have fallen far from their recent $6 highs. Daily Metals Performance. Courtesy of Finviz – May 4, 2026 Are precious metals no longer seen as safe havens? This ongoing war is serving as a crucial test of that historic Market assumption. However, to console aficionados of the alternative asset class, the ultimate flight-to-quality assets—government bonds (US Treasuries particularly)—are also getting heavily battered by these flows.At the heart of these moves are worries about inflation. High oil prices and supply chain problems are pushing interest rates higher for longer. While metals are falling faster than stocks right now, this sharp drop could trigger more trouble ahead for all financial markets.Let's explore the recent shifts in an intraday timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to identify where are the key levels to watch ahead. Read More:Stock Markets stumble from renewed Iran tensions – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday OutlookThe peace process is stalling ahead of April Non Farm Payrolls – Markets Weekly OutlookEthereum (ETH) on path to a continued breakout – Will it pull other altcoins?Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart and levels Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, May 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView The ongoing rejection in Gold has been severe, with a clear downward channel forming throughout the past week.Currently testing its $4,500 support, similar as last week lows after rejecting its 4H 50-period MA, bulls will have to show up to avoid an important support break.Breaking below the level opens the door to $4,400The 200-day MA comes next at $4,280Any continuation will retest the $4,100 War lowsTo regain a bullish momentum, the metal will need to rebound in the current support to break above the bear channel and 4H 50-period MA ($4,640)Intraday Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):Resistance Levels:$4,640 - 4,670 4H 50 & 200 MA & Bear Channel (Short-Term) bullish above$4,850 to $4,900 Major Resistance (bullish above)$5,100 Pivotal Resistance$5,400 mini-resistanceSupport Levels:December 2025 Support $4,500 to $4,550 (bearish below)Pivotal Support $4,325 – $4,400Main Channel Lows Support $4,100 (Long-term bearish below)Next Support $3,880 to $4,000Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart and levels Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart, May 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView Silver is also forming a clear downtrend since reaching its top on April 16, officially breaking its $74-$75 pivot Zone and key Moving averages. The momentum is decisively bearish for now, hence short-term traders will want to either enter on a retest of the $74 Moving average bands or through a sell stop below $72.The next stop for the metal is at $70, with this level being a final test before at ~10% drop to $63-$64.The war lows would come next at $61To inverse the bearish momentum, bulls will want to see a daily close above $76 A short-term bullish breakout confirms above $80Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):Resistance Levels:Pivot lows $74.50 - $75 (bullish above)Pivot highs $79 - $79.50 (4H 200-period MA – bullish above)$84 Major levelKey Range Resistance $90 to $92$96.47 March highs (higher odds of All-time highs if break above)Current Record $121.67Support Levels:$70 - $72 Minor Support (recent bounce – Bearish below)December FOMC Minor Support $64 to $66$61.10 Past Session lows$50 to $55 October Resistance now Major SupportSilver's 2011 All-time highs $49.81 Safe Trades and May the 4th be with you!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks are stagnating at their relative tops with Investors progressively concerned about escalation in the Middle EastWhile Stocks erased their early morning drops, the price action remains mixed, awaiting for further developmentsExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US stock indexes are holding near their recent highs, but investors are becoming more worried about renewed tensions in the Middle East. As the morning session concludes, sentiment is progressively souring Last week, stocks hit new records thanks to strong earnings from large companies, but that excitement is fading – The Dow Jones tried to push past the 50,000 mark but could not maintain it as overall market sentiment weakened. Trading remains mixed and cautious as everyone waits for more news – Markets are, for now, beginning a move to the downside. Daily Market Performance (11:53). May 4, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Overnight, worries about global tensions increased after reports from the UKMTO about new attacks on merchant ships and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. For info, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) shares important security updates between military forces and the shipping industry, helping track incidents in risky areas (and could be interesting to track for commodity traders). On top of these maritime threats, new reports of attacks in Dubai, UAE, have raised fears that the conflict in the region is spreading.The return of tensions is having a big impact on energy markets, and this could progressively spill over to other assets. WTI Crude prices are steady, staying around $103 to $104, but Brent Crude has jumped more than 2% to reach $111 per barrel – The bigger concern is that Oil prices have remained above $100 for more than a week now. With warning signs in the commodity market and most corporate earnings already reported, traders are waiting for the next big economic event, so keeping track of the latest fundamental news will be particularly key for this week's trading. Many are focused on the jobs data due later this week (ADP on Tuesday & Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday), which could add volatility to an already uncertain market, so momentum could stay muted until then. Let's dive into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:The peace process is stalling ahead of April Non Farm Payrolls – Markets Weekly OutlookUSD/JPY: The intervention aftermath, has the BoJ bought time or reversed the trend?Ethereum (ETH) on path to a continued breakout – Will it pull other altcoins?Current Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:19) – Source: TradingView – May 4, 2026 Stock Markets are progressively looking more cloudy as the session unfolds, with most of the Mag 7's easing from their past week's explosions.The broad picture is still far from fully bearish, with some names still rising strongly like Micron, up another 6% today, Oracle leading Technology services and Finance resisting the more pessimistic mood.Keep an eye on these moves as they for now are only looking nascent, with low percentages as we speak. Watch out if the panic persists.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – May 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones has began an acceleration move to the downside as headlines multiply. With the US rejecting the latest Iranian proposition, sellers are re-entering.The 49,000 – 49,100 Pivot zone is getting tested. While the action is turning bearish, it is for now more mixed than anything.Any move below the pivot zone could quickly accelerate towards 48,500 or below.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsWeekend Gap Fill Resistance 49,500 - 49,60049,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 HighsATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500All-Time Highs 50,544Support LevelsMajor Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (short-term bearish below)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (mid-term bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – May 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is progressively losing its upside momentum, crossing below its bull channel last week and now breaking its parallel trendline.Any move below 27,500 may also accelerate a larger pullback, with the first major stop expected at the previous all-time high level (26,300).If the tone doesn't sour much further, this could offer decent entriesOn the other hand, breaking it to the downside points to more panic ahead (~25,000 next)Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time highs 27,85028,000 Major psychological resistanceSupport Levels27,500 micro-resistance now pivotMomentum Pivot at 27,000 (4H 50-period MA)Mini-support 26,600 to 26,750Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300War Support 25,000 to 25,250Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – May 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is only slowly rejecting its Friday highs and the move still looks young, but the bearish morning candle points to at least a test of the lower bound of its low-slope bull channel (7,150).With momentum increasingly bearish, traders could be looking for short setups.Breaking the 7,150 mini-support hints at continued downside back towards the previous all-time highs (7,000) with more downside if the panic continues.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMini-channel highs 7,260All-time highs 7,280Support LevelsChannel lows 7,150 - 7,160 (4H 50-period MA)7,100 psychological levelPrior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the curve, with the tone increasingly worsening.Safe Trades and May the 4th be with you!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Discover our Weekly Market Outlook, exploring themes and events that forged financial flows throughout the week.Stock Markets just reached new all-time highs but Investors are awaiting for fundamental confirmation before moving on the the next phase, including April NFP and more news regarding Iran and US talksGet ready for next week's action by exploring upcoming events across global Markets.Week in review – Earnings break records, pulling Markets higher US Stock Markets, particularly the Nasdaq and S&P have continued their relentless paths to fresh all-time highs, but the euphoric momentum is now somewhat stalling.Investors are anxiously awaiting fundamental confirmation before committing to the next phase of this historic rally. Nasdaq Daily Chart – May 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView All eyes are now turning to the upcoming April Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, while the trading floor remains desperate for concrete progress in the stalled US-Iran diplomatic talks.Without a definitive breakthrough, global assets remain trapped in a geopolitical limbo that is actively preventing major new trends from developing.This week did deliver some great news for Stock Markets: Tech earnings delivered yet another blockbuster round.The reporting Magnificent 7 heavyweights—Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Google—all posted record-breaking revenues.However, the sheer, unprecedented scale of the ongoing AI capital expenditure boom is still frightening investors. With Stock valuations currently stretched to extreme limits, the tech titans will have to continue beating records again and again to make sure that they can maintain their high P/E pricing.Meanwhile, the broader macroeconomic backdrop remains highly complex and weighting on general sentiment. WTI Crude bounced back above the $100 throughout this week, adding renewed inflationary fears for the coming months. WTI 4H Chart – May 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView Yet, after a pivotal week featuring five major central banks (the BoE, BoC, BoJ, Fed, and ECB), aggressive rate hikes remain notably absent from their forward guidance, despite heavy expectations for the worst.The lack of hawkish talks sparked a strong wave of relief trading: The US Dollar shot aggressively lower following Jerome Powell's final press conference, providing a lucrative tailwind for other FX majors and precious metals.However, with Energy prices still grinding higher, a reality check could be imminent.Stock markets remain at center stage, and next week will determine whether equities can continue surfing on record earnings, or if mounting macroeconomic and geopolitical anxieties will ultimately dampen their historic progress.As said last week, an actual deal will be mandatory to sustain the rally.Weekly Performance across Asset Classes Weekly Asset Performance – May 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView Oil somehow rampaged again this week, but what really stands out is the fact that Global Markets really seem to have turned the page on its inverse correlation with other assets.You can see for yourself: Both the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones are up another ~1-2% throughout the week despite the 5% rise in Petrol, and while Gold continued to pullback, Silver managed to remain unchanged.Overall, this hints at further uncertainty in Markets, and traders are now treating each asset class individually (with many consolidation ranges), as the World awaits for further geopolitical news. Discover:USD/JPY: The intervention aftermath, has the BoJ bought time or reversed the trend?Dow Jones nears 50,000! Will Stock Market Bulls ever be defeated?Ethereum (ETH) on path to a continued breakout – Will it pull other altcoins?Gold (XAU/USD) slides 1% as concerns rise of prolonged Middle East conflict, can bulls hold the line at $4,500?The Week Ahead – Key Labor Market reportsAsia Pacific Markets – Royal Bank of Australia Rate Decision and NZ Employment A few data points should be adding fuel to the nascent fire that gripped Forex Markets this week; A fire that has started with the Central Bank rate decisions and magnified with the Verbal Intervention from the Japanese Ministry of Finance.Next week, without counting the US Dollar, the Aussie and New Zealand Dollars will be facing key tests with the back-to-back RBA meeting (no hikes priced, but communications will be closely watched) and New Zealand Employment data on Tuesday.There will be a few mid-tier releases also, including the Bank of Japan minutes (potential mover), PMIs for Australia and Trade data for China.Europe and UK Markets – PMIs and Inflation reports The CHF will surely get the most attention next week, with Swiss inflation report (Tuesday) still a major contributor to FX volatility.While Energy inflation should contribute to less chances of rate cuts for the Swissie, traders will have to remind that any huge strengthening could be met with currency intervention from the Swiss MoF.The Eurozone will also be releasing their fair share of new data, including the Eurozone PPI and PMIs.Euro Traders should also keep an eye on Thursday's Retail Sales and key speeches from Madame Lagarde, as they could either confirm or deter the fresher pricing for rate hikes at the upcoming meeting (June 11).North American Markets – Huge releases and speeches North America comes back to steal the show, with heavy Central Bank speeches and Employment releases.Monday starts the show with Fed's Williams delivering an address (Monday 12:50 ET) – and he currently is the most influential speaker at the Federal Reserve so watch out for his tone (which could well enough dictate the next rate decision, as seen in November).Not mentioning a few PMIs for the US (ISM Services on Tuesday) and Canada (Ivey PMIs on Wednesday), traders will be all eyes and ears for the Employment data releasing from Tuesday to Friday.This includes the classic, mid-tier ADP Private Data, but most importantly, the Canadian and US Payrolls. The effect of the war on the economy is starting to be felt, so major surprises could create significant spikes in the action after relatively dull weeks.We will publish a preview, but what you have to remember is to focus particularly more on the UnemplNext Week's High Tier Economic Events Next week's Economic Calendar – Courtesy of TradingEconomics Safe Trades and keep an eye on US-Iran talks!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (06/05/2026): In today's episode, join TraderNick and Jonny in discussing the latest market developments, including happenings in the Middle East, big tech performance in the current US earnings season, and looking ahead to the next week of trading. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Ethereum has slowly broken out of its October downtrend that had led to its progressive, but brutal 64% correction.Global disinterest for high-beta, AI and Tech assets had shun interest for Cryptocurrencies but with the Conflict turning the script on Energy prices, hence normal consumption, traders slowly turned away from traditional assets.The idea is that Digital Assets are fairly isolated from any rise on Crude Oil or Nat Gas, quite the contrary. Crypto mining is energy intensive; hence, with higher costs, mining gets less interest, so that provides a temporary supply restriction which has a boosting effect on Cryptos.Since the beginning of the conflict, Bitcoin and Ethereum are up 20%, while the Total Market Cap is up just a bit less (~18%) – While there is still a lot to cover to return to all-time highs, this is strong progress; Bulls will want to keep pushing and they might just turn the trend around. Crypto Total Market Cap – Source: TradingView. May 1, 2026 Read More:Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Struggling against resistance in a high-stakes consolidation phaseGold (XAU/USD) slides 1% as concerns rise of prolonged Middle East conflict, can bulls hold the line at $4,500?Metals shine bright after the FOMC meeting – Silver (XAG/USD) & Gold (XAU/USD) intraday outlookETH/BTC – Bull flag formation? ETH/BTC – Source: TradingView. May 1, 2026 The Second to First Crypto ratio is essential to track the appetite for Altcoins, key to depth in the Digital Asset Market as Bitcoin had taken a significant advantage since it started rallying to its first $100,000 trip – The initial drop in ETH in August 2025 marked a top in the ratioToday, ETH/BTC is hanging right around the 3% level, which itself does not imply much about the state of the Crypto Market, however, a bull flag formation could bring some happy days for Alternative Coins.Its target is at 6% of the Bitcoin price, hence that would signify a significant rally in Ethereum which tends to trigger altcoin rallies (except if Bitcoin slashes its value, but in the past, that often reduced the ratio in a flight to Crypto Safety).Ethereum Technical AnalysisETH Daily Timeframe Ethereum Daily Chart, May 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView Ethereum has now officially consolidated above its key $2,100 to $2,300 Pivot Zone and pushed above its downward Channel.While momentum is still timid, a bounce from Neutral RSI, confirming with a nascent bull channel brings back higher odds to retest the $2,500 level (not seen since January).ETH 4H Timeframe and Technical Levels Ethereum 4H Chart, May 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView Ethereum is forming an intraday tight bull channel after finding its bottom at the FOMC, right around the 4H 200-period MA.Currently testing a break of a short-term top-line, bulls are already pushing above the 50-period MA and that provides the needed signs for continued upside.To confirm, look for an hourly close above $2,330 which would hint to a rally to the top of the counter-trend bull channel ($2,520).Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:$2,100 to $2,300 June War Support Key Pivot$2,215 4H 200-period MAChannel lows $2,000$1,700 to $1,800 Pre-Bounce 2025 Key Support (testing)$1,744 February 6 lowsResistance Levels:Trendline top $2,330$2,400 mini-resistance$2,500 to $2,700 June 2025 Key Support now Resistance (Channel Highs)$3,000 to $3,200 Major momentum Pivot (Test of the $3,000)$4,950 Current new All-time highsEthereum 1H Chart Ethereum 1H Chart, May 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView The shorter timeframe points to momentum slightly exhausting with a short-term double top and overbought RSI, but with this price action, the pull back should not extend much beyond $2,300.Breaking the 50-Hour MA ($2,266) cancels out the bull attempt in would imply further consolidation in times ahead. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold (XAU/USD) is sliding due to heightened fears of a prolonged Middle East conflict and increased US Dollar strength.Technical analysis confirms a structural shift to bearish on the H4 chart, breaking key support levelsBulls' ultimate "line in the sand" is the major psychological support at $4,500, with the short-term outlook remaining bearish while the price stays below the $4,601–$4,615 resistance zone.Most Read: Central banks edge toward rate hikes as energy shock revives inflation fearsGold prices fell in early European trade today as markets saw fears rise of a prolonged Middle East conflict. This comes at a time when major Central Banks including the Federal Reserve, ECB and BoE warned this week that a prolonged conflict could have significant implications for inflation and thus monetary policy.Reports suggest the US might launch new military attacks on Iran. This renews worries for market participants that the situation will get even worse and lead to more fighting. Due to the US dollar being seen as the safest money to hold during scary times, these tensions actually make the dollar stronger.However, when the dollar is strong and the world is focused on this type of conflict, it usually weighs on the price of gold. Add to that the inflation picture and Gold bulls may struggle in the near-term until clarity is forthcoming.The Higher Timeframe: H4 Chart Analysis On the H4 timeframe, the structural shift from bullish to bearish is evident. Gold has broken below several key horizontal support levels, most notably the 4,700 and 4,668 handles.The price is currently trading well below both the 100-period Simple Moving Average (MA - Blue) and the 200-period MA (Orange).The RSI on this timeframe is hovering near the 40 mark; while not yet oversold, it suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the downside. The major psychological level of 4,500 stands as the ultimate "line in the sand" for bulls.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, May 1, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) The Intermediate View: H1 Chart Analysis The H1 chart highlights the rejection at the 4,615 resistance level, which aligns closely with the 100-hour MA. After a brief corrective bounce on April 30th, the price failed to reclaim the 4,620 area, resulting in a sharp sell-off during the early May 1st sessions.We can observe that the 4,601 level, previously a support zone, has now transitioned into a formidable resistance.The H1 RSI shows a series of lower highs, indicating that buying exhaustion is setting in every time the metal attempts a minor recovery.As long as Gold remains capped by the 4,601–4,615 zone, the short-term outlook remains decidedly bearish.Gold (XAU/USD) One-Hour Chart, May 1, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Intraday Outlook: M15 Potential Scenarios The M15 chart provides a granular look at the current price action, which is currently consolidating after a drop toward the 4,560 area. The intraday trend is defined by the 100-period MA (Blue) providing constant dynamic resistance.The Bearish ScenarioThe immediate focus for bears is a break below the recent swing low at 4,560. If the New York session brings further dollar strength or higher yields, a break of this level could trigger a rapid descent toward the 4,520 support area, followed by the major psychological floor at 4,500. Any rallies toward the 4,586 (200 MA) or 4,601 levels are likely to be viewed as selling opportunities by intraday traders.The Bullish ScenarioFor a bullish recovery to take shape, XAU/USD needs a sustained break above the 4,601 pivot level. A "Bullish Divergence" on the M15 RSI (where price makes a lower low but RSI makes a higher low) would be the first signal of a potential reversal. If bulls can reclaim 4,614, it opens the door for a corrective move back toward 4,640.However, given the current alignment of the moving averages, any move higher is currently classified as a "dead cat bounce" rather than a trend reversal.Technical Levels to Watch:Resistance: 4,586, 4,601, 4,615Support: 4,560, 4,520, 4,500Gold (XAU/USD) M15 Chart, May 1, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks are once again moving in different directions with traditional sectors picking up momentum and highly priced Tech retreatingRecord earnings in defensive blue chips bring back the hype for the Dow JonesExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US Stock Markets are on the rise again after FOMC day, powered by waves of record earnings, a lower US Dollar, and still no signs of rate hikes from Jerome Powell's latest press conference.The US economy has been deemed robust by the Fed, and justifiably so. Jobs numbers remain stable, the unemployment rate is still well below the long-term average despite limited labor market growth, retail sales are persistently rising, and US PMIs remain well above contraction territory. (More on this coming throughout tomorrow and next week.)After the immense run in tech, defensive stocks are now taking the lead, propelled by Caterpillar's gigantic 10% surge on record generator orders for AI servers. This, combined with stellar earnings in prior weeks, is helping the Dow Jones outperform its peers. Caterpillar 4H Chart – April 27, 2026. Source: TradingView What a chart from Caterpillar! It will be interesting to see if bulls can manage a break out of the higher timeframe channel, beyond $900.Yesterday's mega-cap earnings underscored a massive AI-driven boom despite towering infrastructure costs. Google, Amazon, and Microsoft posted staggering double-digit cloud revenue growth, with Microsoft’s AI business surging 123%. While Meta beat expectations with a 33% revenue jump, its shares are getting offered heavily following a $10 billion CAPEX hike for AI data centers (something that investors are still not appreciating much). The defensive stock trade could deliver more consistent outperformance now that most mega-cap earnings are behind us. Investors are likely to rotate quickly from sector to sector, with volatile trading and shifting fundamentals requiring constant adjustments. Sector Performance in April 2026 – TradingView As highlighted in many of our pieces in early 2026, the age of passive investing is long gone, so don't forget to keep your eyes open for new opportunities.Let's dive into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:FX picks up again! US Dollar tumbles after the ECB and BOE – EUR/USD, GBP/USD OverviewFragmentation within OPEC+: UEA exit signals structural shift in oil market dynamicsBitcoin's (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Struggling against resistance in a high-stakes consolidation phaseCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:50) – Source: TradingView – April 30, 2026 It has been a long time since defensive Stocks haven't completely outperformed Tech, but this is trend is picking up again after the earnings.With record numbers extending fundamentals, High MOAT value stocks continue to find attraction with investor sentiment still quite unsure.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – April 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView What a turn in the Dow Jones after the FOMC, subject to a +1,000 point explosion since reaching 48,500 just yesterday, propelled by defensive sectors on the rise again.Without many elements to defend the rally, 50,000 should be getting reached soon (barring any fundamental change in US-Iran negotiations).Watch for reactions at the psychological milestone; breaking above should go retest and even break the all-time highs.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsWeekend Gap Fill Resistance 49,500 - 49,600 (broken)49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 HighsATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500All-Time Highs 50,544Support Levels4H 50-period MA (49,270)Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,200 Momentum Support 48,500 (short-term bearish below)Pivotal Support at 48,000 Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – April 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is losing some steam, consolidating above 27,000 but stalling its momentum quite aggressively.Watch out for a break below the 4H 50-period MA as it should quickly lead to a retest of the prior all-time highs (~26,300). Buying the dip here could be interesting but this would be contingent on bearish momentum not picking up too much.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsDaily highs 27,42427,500 micro-resistance28,000 Major psychological resistance (and channel highs)Support LevelsMomentum Pivot at 27,000 (4H 50-period MA)Mini-support 26,600 to 26,750Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300War Support 25,000 to 25,250Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – April 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is now consolidating quite strongly within its 7,100 to 7,200 range, and this looks to become a solid trend for the time being as investors now turn to targeted sector plays.Keep an eye on breakouts above and below these key levels.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsKey Range resistance 7,200Mini-channel highs 7,260Support Levels7,100 psychological level and 4H 50-period MAPrior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the curve, with investors still confused about US-Iran negotiations.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

We are officially concluding a massive, high-stakes week for global monetary policy, with the FOMC, BoC, BoJ, ECB, and BoE all revealing their interest rate decisions and forward guidance for the next month and a half. Overall, the markets received nothing revolutionary; most central banks remain firmly entrenched in a defensive stance as they navigate the unpredictable, cascading effects of wartime inflation.The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England all echoed a remarkably similar, cautious sentiment: broader economic growth is being severely hindered by energy prices aggressively surging to four-year highs (Brent just reached 2022 highs at around $120, but is now correcting aggressively).You can access the European Central Bank remarks here. The Petrodollar trade – Oil and US Dollar Correlation. Source: TradingView. April 30, 2026 Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey bluntly highlighted this structural dilemma today, explicitly stating that traditional monetary policy tools simply cannot stop the direct, supply-side inflationary shock caused by soaring energy prices.You can access the latest Bank of England remarks right here.Similarly, ECB President Christine Lagarde maintained a heavily guarded tone during her press conference, acknowledging the immense pressure that triple-digit oil and logistical constraints are placing on the fragile Eurozone recovery.You can access the European Central Bank remarks here.While these central bankers firmly noted that they would be forced to make policy adjustments if long-term inflation expectations begin to aggressively decouple from their rigid 2% targets, they mostly avoided offering any concrete hints or definitive timelines for future rate hikes.So FX traders should all keep a close eye on Inflation expectations for coming times.Against this backdrop of coordinated institutional hesitation, the FX market is experiencing a newfound momentum, particularly if you add to it the return of some interventions, like the one seen on the Japanese Yen this morning. Current Session's FX Performance – Courtesy of Finviz. April 30, 2026 The US Dollar is slowly decoupling from Crude Oil, following yesterday's FOMC press conference. With traders not seeing the hawkish turn expected from Powell on his ultimate press conference, the greenback has failed to follow the momentum, tumbling lower across the board and breathing fresh life into European currencies.Let's dive into the intraday technical overview for EUR/USD and GBP/USD to see if they can capitalize on this newfound Dollar weakness. Discover:Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Struggling against resistance in a high-stakes consolidation phaseUSD/JPY (update): “Final warning” verbal intervention spooked the market. What are the next key supports to watch?The FOMC is stuck & Powell remains at the Board of Governors – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateGBP/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels GBP/USD 4H Chart, April 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView GBP/USD has been hanging in a consolidation range between 1.3450 and 1.36 in the last two weeks and immediate Dollar weakness will look to break the upward resistance.With three strong bullish candles, the action passed back above the 1.35 50-period MA and is progressively extending.Range traders will want to defend the pair around 1.36 as it gets there, and if Oil remains above $100 for long, it has potential to maintain its consolidationHowever, breakout traders will push current momentum for strong odds of a breakoutKeep a close eye on the 1.3550 to 1.36 resistance zone as the price action reaches there.Levels of interest for GBP/USD:Resistance Levels1.3550 to 1.36 Resistance Zone (range highs)April Highs 1.36014 (breakout above)Next key Resistance 1.37 zone2025 Resistance around 1.38Support LevelsKey Pivot 1.3420 to 1.3440 (range lows)Pivotal Support 1.3250 - 1.331.32 War SupportEUR/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels EUR/USD 4H Chart, April 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView EUR/USD was also consolidating in a more directional price action, but has found its bottom after yesterday's FOMC meeting.With the pair reaching its 4H 50-period MA (1.17185), Euro bulls will want to see a clear push to confirm higher odds of a break to the upside – particularly with the recent bull candles that are still printing.Evolving in a short-term bear channel, make sure to see a clean break above 1.1725 to confirm. Failing to do so should maintain the bearish price action.Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:Resistance Levels4H 50-period MA (1.17185)1.17 to 1.1720 March PivotResistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)1.1830 June 2025 highs1.1850 to 1.1860 War highsSupport LevelsPivotal Support 1.1635 - 1.16351.1636 4H 200-period MA1.1540 to 1.1570 War Support1.1475 to 1.15 November SupportWar lows 1.1410Safe Trades and keep an eye on US-Iran talks!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The United Arab Emirates exit from OPEC+ highlights growing internal tensions and weakens the cartel’s ability to coordinate supplyShort term market impact remains limited due to supply disruptions linked to the blockade of the Strait of HormuzIn the medium term, the UAE’s spare capacity may increase global supply once logistical constraints easeRecent price declines in Brent crude oil likely reflect profit taking after a strong rally driven by geopolitical riskA smaller coalition from eight to seven producers The global oil market is entering a phase of growing institutional uncertainty, as the ability of OPEC+ to coordinate supply continues to weaken. A clear manifestation of this trend is the decision by the United Arab Emirates to leave both OPEC and OPEC+, effective May 1, 2026. As a result, only seven countries, down from the original eight that agreed in April 2023 to implement additional production cuts, will participate in the upcoming policy meeting.Underlying tensions quotas compliance and strategic divergence The UAE’s departure is not a sudden development but the outcome of prolonged internal tensions. Disagreements have centered on production levels and, crucially, on compliance with agreed quotas. The UAE repeatedly exceeded its production limits, undermining the credibility of the group’s supply management framework. At the same time, the country has been expanding its production capacity, putting it at odds with the restriction focused strategy led by key players such as Saudi Arabia.These economic frictions have been compounded by geopolitical considerations. Amid escalating regional conflict and instability in the Gulf, Abu Dhabi has grown increasingly dissatisfied with the level of political and strategic support received from its neighbors. This has accelerated the shift toward a more independent energy policy focused on maximizing national output and flexibility.Limited short term impact amid supply disruptions Despite the significance of the UAE’s exit, its immediate impact on the oil market is limited. Production across the Gulf region is already well below capacity due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical transit routes for global oil flows. In this context, physical export constraints outweigh formal production quotas, rendering OPEC+ decisions largely symbolic in the short term.Although new quotas are likely to be announced at the routine meeting, their practical relevance remains minimal. The cartel continues to operate within a formal framework, but its ability to effectively control supply has been significantly diminished.Medium term risks unconstrained capacity and market rebalancing The implications of the UAE’s exit become more meaningful in a scenario where logistical constraints ease and export routes normalize. The UAE possesses substantial spare production capacity, estimated at around 700,000 - 800,000 barrels per day, which it can deploy without being bound by OPEC+ agreements. This creates the potential for a faster supply response and a shift in market balance once normal conditions resume.Long term outlook rising competition and price volatility Over the longer term, the erosion of quota discipline and the increasing number of producers operating outside coordinated frameworks could lead to a more competitive supply environment. This raises the likelihood of heightened price volatility and, in extreme scenarios, the risk of a price war among major oil exporters.While the UAE’s withdrawal does not immediately alter global supply dynamics, it represents a significant structural development. It highlights the weakening cohesion within OPEC+ and signals a gradual transition from coordinated market management toward a more fragmented and competitive oil landscape.Technical view on the oil market Brent crude oil price (CFD), daily data, source: TradingView Oil prices are declining today, which may be driven by news regarding the decision of the United Arab Emirates to leave OPEC+. The market appears to be reacting to the potential for increased supply in the medium term, as well as weakening cohesion within the cartel, both of which are putting short term downward pressure on prices. Currently, Brent crude oil is trading around 114 USD per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate stands near 106.5 USD.At the same time, Brent crude oil prices have matched and even exceeded the highs seen at the beginning of the Middle East tensions. This could indicate that the market has entered a phase of profit taking, particularly among short term investors who entered positions during the recent upward momentum driven by geopolitical risk.As a result, the current pullback does not necessarily signal a reversal of the broader trend, but rather a natural correction following a strong rally and a retest of previous highs. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is in a high-stakes consolidation phaseOn the H4 chart, BTC is trading below the 50-MA and the 100-MA.Key Levels to Watch - Resistance: 77480, 78197, 80000 Support: 75880, 75000, 74250Most Read: USD/JPY (update): “Final warning” verbal intervention spooked the market. What are the next key supports to watch?Bitcoin has enjoyed a period of relative strength, yet as we move into the latter half of the week, the alpha-crypto is facing a cluster of technical hurdles.Price action suggests a tug-of-war between bulls attempting to maintain the medium-term recovery and bears looking to capitalize on a descending trendline that has capped gains since the recent highs.H4 Chart: The Macro Battleground On the H4 timeframe, the broad structure remains somewhat confined. The most notable feature is the descending trendline (black) originating from the 79200 peak. Recent price action shows BTC struggling to make a clean break above this resistance.The $78,197 level (purple line) remains the "line in the sand" for bulls. While we saw a spike above this earlier in the week, it was short-lived, resulting in a swing high that was quickly sold off. Currently, BTC is trading between the 50-SMA (blue) and the 100-SMA (orange). A sustained move back above the 50-SMA (around $77,452) is required to shift the H4 sentiment back to a clear bullish bias. Conversely, the 75000 level remains the primary psychological support that must hold to prevent a deeper correction.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, April 30, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) H1 Chart: Consolidation and MA Squeeze Moving down to the H1 chart, we can see a more granular view of the recent volatility. The price is currently below the Moving Averages. The 50-MA (blue) is acting as immediate dynamic resistance near 76334, while the 100 and 200-MAs are converging above the price.The RSI (Relative Strength Index) on this timeframe is hovering around the 50 mark, suggesting a lack of clear directional momentum. This "squeeze" typically precedes a volatile breakout. Watch for a candle close above the H1 50-MA to signal a run toward the 78197 resistance zone.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) One-Hour Chart, April 30, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) M15 Chart: Intraday Scenarios for Upcoming Sessions The M15 chart highlights the immediate intraday battle. We see a series of "Bull" and "Pivot" signals on the RSI Divergence indicator, suggesting that buyers are stepping in at the 75500 - 75800 range.The Bullish Scenario: For the bulls to take control in the upcoming sessions, we need to see a decisive break above the intraday descending trendline currently sitting near 76500. If price can clear this and flip the H4 50-MA into support, the path opens for a retest of the 78197 resistance. A breach of 78197 would then put the psychological 80000 mark back in focus.The Bearish Scenario: On the flip side, the inability to break the current intraday trendline suggests exhaustion. If BTC fails to hold the 50-MA on the M15 (currently around 75888), we could see a quick slide back toward the 75000 support level. A break below 75000 would be significant, likely triggering a cascade of sell orders and potentially opening the door for a move toward the 73500 region.Key Levels to Watch:Resistance: 77480, 78197, 80000Support: 75880, 75000, 74250Bitcoin (BTC/USD) M15 Chart, April 30, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Bitcoin is at a crossroads. While the underlying trend has shown resilience, the technicals suggest we are in a consolidation phase. Traders should keep a close eye on the 75000 support and the 78197 resistance; a break of either side will likely define the trend for the remainder of the week.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Yen weakness persists despite intervention risks: USD/JPY surged to a 21-month high above 160.45, brushing off verbal intervention warnings as bullish momentum remains firmly intact.Macro drivers favour further upside: Rising oil prices and a widening US–Japan rate differential (Fed more hawkish vs BoJ’s gradual stance) continue to pressure the yen, reinforcing USD/JPY’s uptrend.Technical structure supports continuation: Price action remains within a rising channel above 159.85 support, with momentum indicators signalling further upside potential toward 161.16 and beyond unless a breakdown triggers a pullback. The Japanese yen had staged a mild gain of 0.5% to print a 5-day high of 158.96 per US dollar ex-post the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, 28 April 2026.BoJ advocated a “hawkish hold” on its cash policy rate at 0.75%, with three officials dissenting (opting for a rate hike), which represented the biggest divide under Ueda’s governorship.Overall, the BoJ has continued to guide the market along the lines of its “gradual interest rate hike” stance; in turn, short-term interest rate swaps traders are pricing a 66% chance that the BoJ may enact an interest rate hike when it sets policy again on 16 June 2026.However, the gains on the yen were short-lived despite recent “stark and forceful” verbal intervention remarks made by Japan's Finance Minister Katayama on 23 April and 28 April, expressing concerns on a weakening yen with authorities standing ready to respond as needed to move in the currency market around the clock.Higher oil prices and hawkish dissents in the Fed ignite another rout in JPY Fig. 1: Medium-term trends of USD/JPY & WTI crude oil with correlation coefficient as of 30 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). The movement of the USD/JPY has a significant direct correlation with WTI crude. They move in tandem as Japan imports approximately 95% of its crude oil from the Middle East, and oil fuels Japan’s key export-oriented sectors like automotive and manufacturing.Hence, without any clear signs from the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil and energy flows, it increases the risk of stagflation in Japan, putting the BoJ in a dilemma to maintain its “gradual interest rate hike” monetary policy stance (a negative for the JPY).The WTI crude oil has rallied by 38% since 17 April 2026 to trade at an intraday level of $110/barrel at this time of writing, erasing its losses since the start of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement on 7 April.The recent hawkish messaging from the US White House administration towards Iran, continuation of the US Navy blockage in the strait, Trump’s rejection of Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the waterway, and the latest report by Axios, today, that highlighted US military commanders are set to present President Trump with fresh options for military action against Iran on Thursday, 30 April.Given that the USD/JPY has a high direction correlation of 0.72 (20-day rolling) with WTI crude oil, with the near-term bullish trend remaining intact for WTI crude oil (three consecutive daily closes above its 20-day moving average at $99.50/barrel), there is a high probability that the USD/JPY is likely to face further upside pressure in the near-term (see Fig. 1). Fig. 2: US-Japan implied interest rate policy curve spread as of 29 Apr 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The monthly implied future policy interest rate curves for the US and Japan are calculated using short-term interest rate futures that are highly sensitive to the expectations on these countries’ central banks' monetary policies (the Fed and BoJ, respectively.The current US/Japan implied interest rate policy curve spread for June 2026 has flattened, but it has shifted upwards to 2.74% from 2.46% three months ago (see Fig. 2), reinforced by three US Federal Reserve officials who dissented against an “easing bias” in yesterday’s FOMC monetary policy statement.These observations suggest that the Fed is likely to be more hawkish or less dovish than the BoJ, which may prevent the Japanese yen from altering its major downtrend phase against the US dollar in place since May 2025.Let’s focus now on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the USD/JPY from a technical analysis perspective.USD/JPY – Rallied to a 21-month high and cleared above 160.45 “intervention level” Fig. 3: USD/JPY minor trend as of 30 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). The “red hot” USD/JPY has continued its climb upwards and hit a 21-month intraday high of 160.67, clearing above the prior intervention level zone of 160.23/45, where Japanese authorities stepped into the currency market on 26 April 2024.Watch the 159.85 key short-term pivotal support on the USD/JPY to maintain its ongoing minor uptrend phase from 17 April 2026 low, with the next intermediate resistances coming in at 160.74 and 161.16 (also a Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 3).A clearance above 161.16 may see a further push up to test the 161.80/95 key long-term pivotal resistance, where prior intervention took place in early July 2024.However, a bearish reversal and an hourly close below 159.85 invalidates the near-term bullish tone for a corrective pull-back to expose the next intermediate supports at 159.05 and 158.60 (also the 50-day moving average).Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on USD/JPY The price actions of the USD/JPY have continued to oscillate within a minor ascending channel since the 17 April 2026 low of 157.59, with its upper boundary at around 161.16.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to flash out bullish momentum conditions as it printed a series of “higher lows” above the 50 level. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Markets are moving sideways as Global traders await for the last Press Conference from Jerome PowellInvestors are also awaiting the key Mag 7 earnings, releasing after today and tomorrow's closeExploring Pre-FOMC Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Could the fun be over for US Stock Markets? It is a perpetual question for Investors, who are constantly interacting with thousands of catalysts and data points. The long term says that Markets are always more resilient, but Traders are looking to capitalize in the short term.While the direction remains very uncertain, volatility will persist over the next 24 hours.The first major catalyst is expected about 2.5 hours from now, with the FOMC Rate Decision (100% priced unchanged). As always, communications at the Press Conference are what will move Markets the most, so traders should keep their bullets for the 14:30 (ET) event.This will be Powell's final Press Conference as Federal Reserve Chairman, so expect some additional thoughts and words which could have a decent Market impact – The Fed Chair could still have some tough words on inflation expectations.’ Impact of new Federal Reserve Chairmen on Stock Markets. Source: Nationwide Other volatility-shaking catalysts for Stocks include the highly anticipated and feared Mag 7 earnings, with Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft reporting after the close.Projections are for sustained record earnings, but investors will be particularly attentive to whether extremely elevated infrastructure spending is beginning to yield a return on investment.The pressure point for Investors and Market sentiment overall is to see if AI really turns out to be as profitable as the Trillions invested require it to be. We will get the answer for this throughout the years, but elevated volatility and expectations could still have an effect on present risk appetite. This is what happened in October 2025 and led to the gigantic AI/Tech crash.Finally, the US-Iran impasse continues, and it seems that Iran is slowly feeling the pressure from the Strait of Hormuz blockade. While the strategy hurts the global economy, it is a decent counter-attack on what the Islamic regime was imposing on Gulf oil exporters.This is why President Trump wasn't opposed to maintaining the Ceasefire, and the Strategy should pressure negotiations promptly – the issue, however, is that Oil Markets are not so patient, and WTI Crude is now well back above the triple-digit mark, trading around $105!Let's dive into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:Alphabet (GOOGL) Earnings Preview: Q1 earnings hinge on margins and the cloudAmazon (AMZN) Technical: Uptrend and outperformance factor intact above 231.00 key supportMicrosoft (MSFT) Earnings Preview – Will Q1 numbers confirm MSFT's price recovery?Current Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:51) – Source: TradingView – April 29, 2026 The Stock Market is trading in a low volatility, profit-taking environment which is dragging most sectors lower.Only the eternally strong semiconductors are mean-reverting higher after the past session's tumble, bringing Nasdaq back higher – Expect this picture to change tomorrow depending on the earnings.Dow Jones 2H Chart and FOMC Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – April 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones officially broke its 500-point consolidation to the downside, which dampens the short-term momentum.Still, the 2H 200-period MA is acting as support and traders will have to monitor if it serves as support or breaks after the FOMC – Look at 48,860 in that event.Below points to ~48,400 – stronger selling could easily turn to 48,000.Rebounding from there could regain 49,500 and even test 50,000 (on a dovish outlook from Powell)Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsMajor Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100Weekend Gap Fill Resistance 49,500 - 49,60049,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 HighsAll-Time Highs 50,544Support Levels2H 200-period MA 48,860 Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (Mid-term Bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – April 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView While remaining the only Index higher in this morning's action, Nasdaq is stuck in a 150 points range right around 27,000.Look for breakouts above and below that range which should lead to strong follow through.If sellers take the advantage, look at the 26,100 - 26,200 previous All-Time Highs for a retest.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMomentum Pivot at 27,000 - 27,150 (testing)Record highs 27,42027,500 micro-resistance28,000 Major psychological resistance (and channel highs)Support LevelsMini-support 26,600 to 26,750Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300War Support 25,000 to 25,250Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – April 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 officially broke its upward trend but remains comfortably above 7,100 in its consolidation.Breaking the psychological level should, like Nasdaq, extend back to the previous All-Time Highs (~7,020).In the event of a bounce, look at 7,230 as a target, and to confirm, look for a clean break of 7,180.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMini-resistance 7,150 -7,160 (rejecting)New all-time resistance 7,180 - 7,200Next key potential resistance 7,200Mini-channel highs 7,2560Support LevelsWeek-end gap 7,100 PivotPrior ATH Pivotal support 7,020 to 7,050Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the curve, with investors still confused about US-Iran negotiations.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Bank of Canada kicked off the Central Bank sessions with a hawkish holdOil prices continue to maintain bullish inflows in the Canadian Dollar but communications are still mixedIn-depth Technical Analysis and technical levels for USD/CAD and EUR/CAD The Bank of Canada just released its Policy Rate decision, maintaining rates unchanged for the fourth time since October 2025 and, quite frankly, not hinting at much change in its stance.The Statement (which you can access here) had nothing particularly surprising, with the Bank noting that the outlook isn't much different from that indicated in the January Decision.Some concerns about the Quarterly MPC Projections regarding the economic outlook maintain the Bank's view of a not-so-strong Canadian economy, which takes some pricing out of rate hikes.Nonetheless, the BoC assumed a $75 Crude Oil barrel, so if it stays closer to $100 for the next meeting, the Bank should turn more hawkish.On the Loonie, it yoyo'd quite aggressively throughout the ups and downs of the Middle Eastern war – With WTI Crude bouncing back above $100 just today, the CAD is seeing a two-catalyst recipe for its daily performance; At least against other Major currencies (with USD traders awaiting the FOMC).Even if the war really settles, the Canadian Dollar should not regain its prior lows, with increased Oil revenues and orders, which would underpin the CAD for the next few months at least – The BoC mentioned this in relation to Oil developments."While the war in Iran may alter its composition, overall GDP growth is little changed in the updated forecast: Since Canada is a large net exporter of oil, higher oil prices increase national income even as consumers are squeezed by higher gasoline prices."The Press Conference starts very soon, access it here.Let's dive right into a two-timeframe USD/CAD analysis. Read More:Microsoft (MSFT) Earnings Preview – Will Q1 numbers confirm MSFT's price recovery?Nasdaq 100: AI bubble fears overblown, bullish trend intact above 26,760 key intraday supportChart alert: Silver (XAG/USD) rout extends below $75.90 key intraday resistance, bearish trend intactUSD/CAD Daily and Intraday Technical AnalysisUSD/CAD Daily Chart USD/CAD Daily Chart, April 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/CAD has officially stalled its correction, now bouncing from its 1.3660 Support Zone.With the BoC not showing many hawkish signs, the CAD is immediately losing some strength and this should normally extend the price action back towards the 50-Day Moving Average (1.37330).Above 1.3750, expect to see further rallies in the North American Pair back towards 1.39.USD/CAD 1H Chart and Trading Levels USD/CAD 1H Chart, April 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView The FX Pair has officially broken its downward channel and having passed above its 50 and 200 Hour MAs, the rebound should see continuation.Look for a break above the 1.3710 particularly if the FOMC adds fuel to the fire in the US Dollar – It will be Jerome Powell's ultimate Press Conference, so don't expect anything too crazy there.Levels to place on your USD/CAD charts:Resistance Levels:1.3720 – 1.3750 Pivot 50-Day Moving Average (1.37330).1.38 mini-Resistance +/- 150 pips1.3850 - 1.3870 Momentum Pivot (Channel retest 1.3860)1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistanceSupport Levels:1.3675 200-Hour MA1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support1.3550 Main 2025 Support (Range Lows)End-January Lows 1.34820 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways AI bubble fears lack confirmation as trend holds: Despite a temporary sell-off triggered by concerns around OpenAI revenue, the Nasdaq 100 stabilised, suggesting that recent “AI bubble” worries are not yet supported by technical or momentum signals.Semiconductors continue to lead without peak signals: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) remains the key market leader with strong gains, but current momentum levels are still below dot-com bubble extremes and show no bearish divergence, indicating further upside may be possible.Bullish structure intact above key support: The Nasdaq 100 continues to trade within an ascending channel, supported by healthy market breadth and bullish momentum signals, with 26,760 acting as the critical level to maintain near-term upside potential. This is a follow-up analysis on the prior report, “Chart alert: Nasdaq 100 gap-down stalled above 26,288/142 key support, bulls are still in control”, published on 20 April 2026.On Tuesday, 29 April 2026, the Wall Street Journal reported (before the start of the US session) that AI start-up, OpenAI (creator of ChatGPT) had fallen short of several internal revenue targets that spooked traders, leading to a sell-off on the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures of 1.5%, and several US technology and semiconductor stocks (NVIDIA, Broadcom, AMD).The Nasdaq 100 managed to trim its losses as US trading hours progressed on Tuesday and ended the session with a reduced loss of 1%, aided by OpenAI refuting the claims made in the Wall Street Journal report.Bubble concerns have resurfaced around the AI-driven productivity and infrastructure capex narrative that powered the sharp rebound in US equities, erasing losses from the US–Iran conflict. Despite pushing the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 to fresh record highs, investors are increasingly questioning whether aggressive AI spending can deliver sustainable returns, raising the risk that valuations may be running ahead of fundamentals.My colleagues, Zain and Elior, have written reports on the upcoming earnings releases of key Nasdaq 100 component stocks, Alphabet and Microsoft (links below), due after the close of today’s US session, which can also influence the intraday movements of the Nasdaq 100.Read more:Alphabet (GOOGL) Earnings Preview: Q1 earnings hinge on margins and the cloudMicrosoft (MSFT) Earnings Preview – Will Q1 numbers confirm MSFT's price recovery?Semiconductor stocks are leaders that led the stock market bullish cycle Fig. 1: SOX, Magnificent 7 & US stock indices performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 28 Apr 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). Fig. 2: SOX, Magnificent 7 & US stock indices YTD performances as of 27 Apr 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). For US stock market traders, monitoring the health of the semiconductor stocks is paramount, even though they do not have any semiconductor names on their watchlists, because they are the market leaders that led the recovery stages of a broader market bull cycle.Also, towards the end of the bull cycle, these market leaders will tend to be the first or second sectors that flash out signs of bullish exhaustion, a warning that the broader stock market trend is about to stage a bearish reversal.So far, the barometer for the US semiconductor stocks, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), which consists of 30 stocks, is the leader of the ongoing recovery since the US-Iran war started on 28 February 2026. Using the pre-war baseline of 27 February 2026 to Tuesday, 28 April 2026, the SOX recorded a gain of 24% (see Fig. 1), surpassing the returns of the “Magnificent 7” except for Amazon, and the four US benchmark stock indices.On a year-to-date performance basis as of 28 April 2026, the SOX led the pack significantly with a whopping return of 42% (see Fig. 2).Read now, I shall uncover several key momentum and market breadth factors that suggest the medium-term bullish trend of the Nasdaq 100 since the 30 March 2026 low remains intact.140% year-on-year gain on SOX is not extreme and overbought yet Fig. 3: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) long-term secular trend with 12-month ROC (Source: TradingView). The recent rally in the US semiconductor stocks (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index), in the past four weeks, has been historic, by some measures, the most frenzied since the dot-com bubble days since 2000.Until Friday, 24 April 2026, the SOX was up nearly 40% in April and up over 160% from a year earlier, both the most since 2000, driving up fears of a bubble bursting that may lead to devastating wealth destruction in terms of magnitude and time. The Nasdaq 100 took 15 years, and the SOX almost 18 years, to revisit their 2000 peaks after the dotcom bubble burst.Based on data as of Tuesday, 28 April 2026, the year-on-year increase of the SOX is at 137% (see Fig. 3), which is still way below the 228% y/y gain seen on SOX that coincided with the major top of the SOX and Nasdaq 100 in March 2000, before the dotcom bubble burst.Also, before the SOX and Nasdaq 100 tumbled drastically from September 2000 to October 2002, the 12-month Rate of Change (y/y) of the SOX flashed out a bearish divergence condition in August 2000, before the start of the September 2000-October 2002 major downtrend phase (see Fig 3).Right now, there is no bearish divergence condition on the 12-month Rate of Change (y/y) of the SOX.Market breadth of Nasdaq 100 remains healthy Fig. 4: Percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks trading above 20-day, 50-day & 200-day moving averages as of 17 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). The share of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above their 20-day and 50-day moving averages is still holding above the 50% level; 59% and 54%, respectively, as of Tuesday, 28 April 2026.Also, the percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks above the longer-term 200-day moving average has improved slightly to 52% (above 50%) from 48% printed earlier on 15 April 2026 (see Fig. 4).Let's now focus on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index and its supporting elements from a technical analysis perspective.Nasdaq 100 – Oscillating within a bullish ascending channel Fig. 5: US Nasdaq 100 CFD index minor trend as of 29 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). Watch the 26,760 key short-term pivotal support on the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures), and a clearance above 27,380 opens scope for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 27,647 and 27,934/27,994 (Fibonacci extension cluster) in the first step (see Fig. 5).However, a violation and an hourly close below 26,760 invalidates the intraday bullish scenario for a minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate supports at 26,480 and 26,288/26,142.Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on the Nasdaq 100 The hourly RSI momentum indicator flashed out a bullish divergence condition on Tuesday, 28 April 2026, after it reached its oversold region (below the 30 level).Elliot Wave Theory suggests the minor bullish impulsive wave three structure from the 2 April 2026 low of 23,511 remains intact.The 26,760 key short-term pivotal support confluences with the lower boundary of the ascending channel from the 31 March 2026 low. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 28 Markets are moving into a new, delicate phase of geopolitical negotiations. While a return to the diplomatic table is getting more realistic with concessions on both US and Iranian sides, the actual situation on the ground remains incredibly cloudy.The physical Oil market is still feeling the heavy pressure – We are now nearing almost 60 days of conflict, and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz—the absolute biggest fear catalyst for global markets—is heavily dampening fundamentals.After the Ceasefire announcements (more than two weeks ago!), US stock benchmarks exploded higher from a relative turn in sentiment, aggressively pricing in a peace trade that compounded into a euphoric run to all-time highs. This massive bounce was highly magnified by options positioning and violent short-covering. Today, however, that honeymoon phase officially hit a wall; With WTI Crude oil aggressively retesting the $100 mark, traders are getting extremely anxious once again.Adding massive fundamental weight to this geopolitical anxiety is the economic and corporate calendar: With key mega-cap tech earnings getting released tomorrow, not to mention the looming FOMC policy decision, widespread profit-taking is quite logical. Yet, looking at the tape, there seems to be a deeper kind of fatigue settling into the markets. The tech sector is giving up its recent advantage, with Nasdaq at the bottom of US Indexes, and traders will need to see more concrete positive developments from here to avoid an inevitable, broader turn lower.Risk assets clearly do not like the triple digits in Oil – The energy surge sparked general selloffs in equities around the globe, and even metals took a noticeable hit today as traders move to the sidelines, awaiting clarity on both earnings and the Strait of Hormuz.Expect to see more of this if the Fed gets hawkish and/or results give a bad surprise. Read More:Microsoft (MSFT) Earnings Preview – Will Q1 numbers confirm MSFT's price recovery?The Tech honeymoon is over ... right before earnings? – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Intraday OutlookAlphabet (GOOGL) Earnings Preview: Q1 earnings hinge on margins and the cloudKey Earnings releases tomorrow (April 29) Earnings release for April 29, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com Tomorrow clearly is the most important session for Equity traders until the next Earnings season.With immense profits already reported throughout last week, tomorrow welcomes the heavy money reporters, including 4 of the Mag 7s – Microsoft, Meta, Google and Amazon.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, April 28, 2026 – Source: TradingView It is surprising to see that despite persistent rises in Commodities, Metals are the only major laggards of the session.Profit-taking and position closing ahead of the FOMC is not a surprise – Tomorrow should see major volatility and this could be exaggerated depending on what happens with US and IranA picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, April 28, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs The US Dollar rallied back to the top of the FX board but movements remain surprisingly underwhelming in recent weeks.Traders are awaiting for the key Bank of Canada and FOMC news to move the needle.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The next 24 hours will be welcome for volatility aficionados, with an absolute cascade of catalysts coming from all sides of the world.Tonight starts the banquet with Australian CPI, testing recent AUD strength, to quickly move on to Europe, with German CPI and EU consumer sentiment.Shortly later, the Bank of Canada will release their rate decisions and precede the FOMC in a huge Wednesday session.And this doesn't even mention the huge numbers releasing after the close.As always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations that should happen over the weekend.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Microsoft lost over 30% of its value since reaching its all-time highs in July 2025, but recovering heavily since its March troughInvestors will want to confirm the price rebound with strong forward communications and profitsHigh spending projections for AI infrastructure saw tough responses, so Markets are waiting to see if better tech narratives could turn sentiment aroundFundamental Outlook for Microsoft Microsoft continues to dominate a tech industry that is slowly bouncing from Fearful trading territory, as can be seen with Nasdaq exploding back to its all-time highs – AI themes are trending again, with fears of other sectors being affected by higher Energy prices.Its fundamental strength is still anchored by a commanding market share in Enterprise Software (Office 365) and a robust #2 position in Cloud (Azure), which recently saw a stellar 39% year-over-year revenue growth.Despite recent selloffs in the MSFT stock, earnings growth remains impressive; in its most recent reported quarter (Q4 2025), Microsoft delivered a 24% increase in adjusted EPS ($4.14$), significantly beating analyst estimates.What scared investors was the immense spending projections for AI infrastructures, which hit at a time when Market sentiment took a turn to the downside.Indeed, recent bearish earnings reactions have been a mix of pessimism over AI monetization—specifically with 15 million paid Copilot seats—and caution regarding massive capital expenditures on GPUs at a time when costs are exploding.Microsoft is Open AI's primary cloud partner and they just announced a restructuing in the way they operate – Reactions have been more optimistic than pessimistic, but the real response will be seen tomorrow. You can read more about it right here.Overall, Microsoft remains a Cash Cow, returning over $12 billion to shareholders last quarter through buybacks and dividends, so it remains a relatively attractive investment on large drops.Keep in mind that general appetite for Tech and AI remain the primary driver of Mag 7 attraction.Bubble fears persist, but it still seems that the top is not quite there yet – and compared to 2000, profit-numbers are more than real: they are record-breaking! Microsoft Earnings Growth – Courtesy of Macrotrends Microsoft Daily Chart, Technical Levels and Scenarios Microsoft has bounced about 20% from its 2025 Support, so expectations are high.According to Bloomberg, the EPS estimate is at $4.04 to $81.46 Billions – So traders will want to see both a beat on these estimates and more realistic spending projections. Microsoft (MSFT) Daily Chart – Source: TradingView Microsoft technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels$430 to $445 April Resistance$460 to $475 Pivotal Resistance$485 to $500 December Highs$540 to $550 ATH Double TopSupport Levels$410 to $420 Momentum Pivot$380 to $395 Key February Support$340 to $350 2025 and 2026 Support$310 to $320 September 2023 Support A break above the $445 Resistance should see a fast extension towards the 200-Day MA ($469) – The next step is $500.Below $410 however, a retest of the 50-Day MA ($395) could materialize quickly.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Nasdaq leads US Benchmarks to the downside and traders are now unrolling risk heavily ahead of the key earningsThe honeymoon price action for Stocks is now facing a few tests, including still unclear geopoliticsExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 The honeymoon phase for US Equities is officially facing its first major stress test in weeks. The Nasdaq is currently leading US Stock benchmarks to the downside, as traders scramble to unroll risk ahead of the most critical corporate Mega Cap earnings stretch of the year.Compounding the anxiety from the releases is a still quite unstable and uncertain geopolitical landscape. While recent reports suggest that Iran is expected to submit a revised peace proposal soon—desperate to escape the economic chokehold of the US naval blockade—the timeline for an actual resolution remains cloudy. This morning, President Trump posted in a Truth Social bomb that Tehran is actively demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, yet until a concrete deal is signed, the global logistical nightmare persists. Adding to the supply drought, WTI Crude Oil has surged right back around and above the $100 mark with the UAE officially exiting from OPEC. This resurgence in Energy commodities is hurting broader stock market sentiment and adding pressure to the recent bullish momentum – Check out our recent WTI piece to learn more on these issues! US-Iran Peace Deal odds for May 31 – April 28, 2026. Source: TradingView Prediction-Market Odds for a proper peace deal have slowly crumbled, going up above 70% but are now back below 35% – So remaining hopeful in such an environment could be quite risky.On the corporate front, the underlying US economy continues to show immense resilience, highlighted by a strong earnings beat from Coca-Cola this morning and keeping the DJIA afloat. Today's after-the-bell lineup, featuring Visa and T-Mobile, will keep traders busy, but it is merely an appetizer. However, the quintessential challenge for Wall Street arises tomorrow when four of the Magnificent 7 heavyweights—Amazon, Meta, Google, and Microsoft—release their Q1 earnings. With tech valuations stretched to the absolute limit in a flash melt-up since the Ceasefire announcement and the macroeconomic backdrop clouded by triple-digit oil, these titans must deliver flawless guidance to prevent a vicious, broader market correction. Let's dive into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:UAE quits OPEC! Crude Oil explodes to $100 – WTI Technical analysisAmazon (AMZN) Technical: Uptrend and outperformance factor intact above 231.00 key supportGold (XAU/USD) Selloff Deepens: Technical breakdown and rising Oil prices accelerates bearish momentumCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:59) – Source: TradingView – April 28, 2026 Except for Nvidia and Microsoft still extending their remarkable rebounds (having underperformed throughout early 2026 trading), the entire Market is suffering from the latest fundamental flows – Only Energy and Financials maintain a balanced price action.Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – April 28, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow is still holding its super-strong 500 point range between 49,000 and 49,500 – Keep these levels in check for the breakout trading.Normally, consolidating near all-time highs is a positive sign as overbought conditions ease and the Market rebalances while not showing any sign of weakness, so this would add to higher odds of a bullish breakout.Nonetheless, the current fundamentals are very fragile and any bad news in the Middle East could see a flash drop lower – Worsening sentiment hasn't hurt the price action yet.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsWeekend Gap Fill Resistance 49,500 - 49,60049,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 HighsAll-Time Highs 50,544Support Levels4H 50-period MA (49,050)Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (Range lows)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (Mid-term Bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – April 28, 2026 – Source: TradingView I hope that some of you captured the bearish break forecasted in our past session's Stock Market analysis!The price action is now stabilizing with the Nasdaq down 1.70% from its record highs and crossing below 27,000.The short-term price action is close to oversold, implying a slowdown of the selling, but any pullback ahead of tomorrow's close could be sold. Make sure to hedge your risk or reduce it before the after-market Mag 7 earnings!Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMomentum Pivot at 27,000Record highs 27,42027,500 micro-resistance28,000 Major psychological resistance (and channel highs)Support LevelsMini-support 26,600 to 26,750Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300War Support 25,000 to 25,250Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – April 28, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is also breaking its low-slope bull channel in today's anxiety pullback.Conditions are quite similar to the Nasdaq, but the Spoose maintains a somewhat more resilient price-action. Keep track of the movement around the 7,100 psychological level.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMini-resistance 7,150 -7,160 (rejecting)New all-time resistance 7,180 - 7,200 Next key potential resistance 7,200Mini-channel highs 7,2560Support LevelsWeek-end gap 7,100 PivotPrior ATH Pivotal support 7,020 to 7,050Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the curve, with investors still confused about US-Iran negotiations.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Q1 earnings success hinges on demonstrating how massive AI investments will lead to durable margin expansion.Google Cloud is the primary battlefield: analysts seek 50% growth and a surge in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO).Management must justify the $75 billion investment plan (Capex Trajectory) to avoid the "spending ahead of demand" narrative.A classified Pentagon AI deal provides a strategic "trust" win for competing in high-stakes, secure AI environments.Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Selloff Deepens: Technical breakdown and rising Oil prices accelerates bearish momentumAlphabet (GOOGL) is set to step into the earnings spotlight on April 29, and the stakes for the search giant have rarely been higher. While the stock has enjoyed a stellar run to yearly highs, the market’s focus has shifted.It is no longer enough to simply beat on the top and bottom lines; investors now demand a clear roadmap for how Alphabet’s massive AI investments will translate into durable margin expansion.With the options market pricing in a 5.63% post-earnings move, well above the 1.44% historical average, volatility is almost guaranteed. Here is what is moving the needle for Alphabet heading into the Q1 print.The Fundamental Backdrop: Revenue Resilience Wall Street remains optimistic about the core engine. Consensus estimates peg revenue at $106.89 billion, a 19% year-over-year jump.However, the Earnings Per Share (EPS) outlook is more nuanced, with estimates ranging from $2.10 to $2.68.The lower end of that EPS range reflects the "AI tax", the heavy infrastructure costs Alphabet is absorbing to keep pace in the generative AI arms race. The market will be hypersensitive to any signs that these costs are beginning to erode the company's historically robust operating margins.Key Swing Factors for Market Participants The Cloud as a Success BarometerGoogle Cloud is the primary battlefield. Analysts are looking for 50% year-over-year growth, but the real "tell" will be the Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO). A surge in RPO would confirm that enterprise clients are locking into long-term AI contracts, justifying the current valuation. If Cloud growth stalls while capital expenditure climbs, expect the "spending ahead of demand" narrative to weigh heavily on the share price.The Capex TrajectoryAlphabet has telegraphed a staggering $75 billion 2026 investment plan. Management needs to strike a delicate balance: reassure the market that they aren't falling behind Microsoft or OpenAI, while proving that they aren't overbuilding capacity. A capex raise without a matching revenue guide-up is a recipe for a post-earnings sell-off.Strategic WinsThe Pentagon AI Deal A significant tailwind heading into this release is the reported classified Pentagon AI deal. By securing a spot alongside OpenAI and xAI in defense infrastructure, Google has secured a massive "trust" win. This deal serves as a powerful rebuttal to critics who questioned Google’s ability to compete in high-stakes, secure AI environments.Technical Outlook and Potential Implications From a technical perspective, GOOGL has been a "Strong Buy" darling, but the risk of a "sell the news" event is elevated at these levels.The Bull Case: A "clean" beat characterized by Cloud acceleration and stable margins would likely see Alphabet test the $400 psychological level, supported by a flurry of analyst upgrades.The Bear Case: Any weakness in YouTube advertising or a dip in operating margins toward the 31% mark could trigger a swift derating. In this scenario, the stock may look to find support at previous consolidation zones as the market re-evaluates the ROI on AI.Key Levels to Watch:316.26 (100-day MA), 300.00 (psychological level), 278.27 (200-day MA)400.00 (psychological levelAlphabet Daily Chart, April 28, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Bottom line Alphabet finds itself in a "show me" period like many tech and AI heavyweights. The company has the infrastructure and the strategic wins, but it must now prove that its AI-first transformation is accretive to the bottom line.As we move toward Wednesday’s close, the focus won't just be on how much money Google made, but on how efficiently they are spending it to secure the next decade of dominance.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold prices are experiencing a selloff driven by rising oil prices (fueling inflation concerns) and dampened sentiment regarding a potential US-Iran dealTechnical analysis indicates an accelerating bearish momentum, with Gold breaking below both the 100-MA and 200-MA on the H4 chartThe primary downside target for sellers is the $4601 support level, while a relief rally would face resistance between the $4650 and $4700 zones.Most Read: EUR/USD: Cautiously bullish above 1.1700 ahead of FOMC and ECBGold prices experienced a selloff in the Asian session as Oil prices continue to rise, stoking inflation concerns. Markets continue to be driven by the potential for a deal between the US and Iran.As the situation is fluid any change in perception around a deal is knocking sentiment. Rumors that President Trump is not happy with the recent proposal submitted by Iran. This has dampened sentiment early on Tuesday and barring any comments is likely to remain the status quo for the European session.H4 Chart: Bearish Momentum Accelerates The H4 timeframe paints a clear picture of a market struggling to find its footing. After failing to sustain a break above the $4800 handle, Gold has plummeted through key support levels.Crucially, the price has slipped below both the 100-MA (Blue) and 200-MA (Orange). The rejection at the $4700 psychological level earlier in the session acted as the catalyst for the current leg lower.With the RSI currently languishing in oversold territory (near 23), a short-term bounce wouldn't be surprising, but any recovery is likely to meet stiff resistance at the previous breakdown points.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, April 28, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) H1 Chart: Lower Highs and Structural Weakness On the H1 chart, the trend is undeniably bearish. We have seen a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The aggressive sell-off during the most recent candles has pushed Gold toward the $4620 area, slicing through minor support zones with ease.The gap between the price and the moving averages on this timeframe suggests the move is slightly overextended. However, the lack of a "bullish divergence" on the RSI indicates that the bears are still firmly in control. The $4601 level (highlighted by the purple horizontal line) stands as the primary target for sellers and the next major "line in the sand" for bulls.Gold (XAU/USD) One-Hour Chart, April 28, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) M15 Tactical Analysis: Scenarios for the Upcoming Sessions Looking at the intraday price action (M15), we see Gold attempting to stabilize after a vertical drop. Here is how I am framing the upcoming sessions:The Bearish ScenarioIf Gold fails to reclaim the $4640 - $4650 zone during a relief rally, sellers will likely reload. A break below the recent swing low at $4620 would open the trapdoor for a move toward the $4601 support level.Target: $4,601.Trigger: Rejection of the M15 50-MA or a break of $4,620.The Bullish ScenarioFor a meaningful intraday recovery, the bulls need to orchestrate a "stop-run" back above $4650. This would signal a potential "exhaustion gap" and could lead to a squeeze toward the $4680 area (near the H1 MAs).Target: $4,680 - $4,700.Confirmation: A 15-minute close above $4,655 with an RSI move back above 50.Key Levels to Watch:Resistance: $4650, $4687, $4700.Support: $4620, $4601, $4580.Gold (XAU/USD) M15 Chart, April 28, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) While the long-term trend for Gold has been constructive, the short-term technicals are screaming caution. The decisive break below $4700 has shifted the momentum, and until we see a structural shift on the H1 (a higher high), I remain wary of catching the falling knife.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.