Key takeaways Global equities climbed to fresh record highs as the AI infrastructure supercycle continued to dominate market sentiment, with hyperscalers projected to spend up to $1 trillion on AI capex by 2027.Markets remain highly sensitive to conflicting US-Iran peace deal headlines, driving sharp volatility in oil prices, bond yields, and broader risk sentiment across global asset classes.Sticky inflation and increasingly hawkish central bank rhetoric have reinforced expectations of prolonged restrictive monetary policy, with traders now pricing higher odds of Fed and ECB rate hikes.Chart of the day: Nikkei 225 at risk of corrective pull-back below 65,665 key short-term resistance.Top macro headlines World stocks advance to record heights: Global equity indices, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and MSCI All Country index, eked out fresh record highs. The momentum remains strongly supported by an unyielding AI infrastructure supercycle that continues to overrule broader macroeconomic headwinds.US-Iran peace progress met with extreme skepticism: Volatility continues to rock the energy sector amid conflicting headlines regarding a breakthrough in the Middle East. While Iranian state media cited an unofficial memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a month, the White House forcefully rejected the report, calling it a "complete fabrication."Trillion-dollar tech IPO pipeline expands: Speculation surrounding Elon Musk's public market footprint is heating up as SpaceX prepares to debut on the Nasdaq on June 12, targeting a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. Rumors are intensifying that Musk may eventually move to merge Tesla and SpaceX/xAI to build a unified AI giant. Concurrently, OpenAI and Anthropic continue to pursue substantial private and public funding sources.Central Banks implement hawkish directives: Global monetary policy cycles are shifting aggressively toward headwinds. Following recent rate hikes in Australia and Norway, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept rates on hold in a highly contested split decision that points to imminent hikes. Simultaneously, European Central Bank officials deliver strong hawkish guidance, emphasizing that rate hikes should proceed regardless of Middle East peace outcomes. The short-term interest rate swaps market is now showing an increasing odds of a 25-basis-point hike from the ECB in June.Key macro themes AI Capex Supercycle vs. Dotcom Bubble Parallels: Cloud hyperscalers are projected to pour over $850 billion into AI infrastructure this year and up to $1 trillion in 2027. While the massive capital expenditures are absorbing enormous amounts of operational cash flow and driving up corporate debt, analysts from Goldman Sachs emphasize that a market crash is not imminent, as these tech giants are delivering concrete, strong earnings growth compared to the speculative late-1990s dotcom mania.The repricing of Fed trajectory before key PCE: Heading into Thursday's highly anticipated April PCE report, the first major inflation data of the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh era at the Fed, economists expect headline annual PCE to accelerate to 3.8% y/y and core annual PCE to jump to 3.3% y/y. Sticky inflation and the ongoing war shock have completely erased 2026 rate cut hopes, with Fed funds futures traders now pricing in 60% probability of an active Fed interest rate hike by year-end.The sovereign yield burden & corporate debt safe havens: Due to sticky inflation, deteriorating public finances in Washington, and massive upcoming Treasury coupon supply, investor sentiment toward U.S. sovereign debt has soured. Consequently, fund managers are increasingly eschewing Treasuries to flock into top-tier, blue-chip U.S. corporate debt, as corporate America's balance sheets increasingly look more sound than Washington's debt.Global market impact (last 24 hours) Equities: Wall Street was mixed but steady; the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 notched new record highs, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished basically flat. Gains were led by consumer discretionary (+1.9%), with United Airlines gaining 6%, while software and chip names consolidated, with Qualcomm dropping 6%, and Nvidia slipped by 1%. Europe closed flat, and the UK FTSE gained 0.1%.Fixed Income: U.S. Treasury yields eased slightly by 1-2 basis points. A heavy multi-billion dollar 5-year sovereign note auction registered acceptable investor demand ahead of top-tier PCE inflation data out later today.FX: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remained mostly flat. The New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) skyrocketed by 1.0% to emerge as the largest G10 mover following the hawkish RBNZ split decision. The Japanese Yen slumped to a fresh 4-week low towards 159.50 per USD, entering acute verbal and physical intervention zones.Commodities: Crude oil prices tumbled by 4.0%, sliding back below the critical $100/barrel handle as energy traders tentatively priced in the state-television peace rumors. Precious metals remained under severe pressure from higher global yield tracking; spot gold slipped further to trade near a fresh 2-month low at $4,456/oz, just above its 200-day moving average ($4,394/oz).Asia Pacific impact South Korean and regional indices explode: South Korea's benchmark KOSPI spearheaded global equity gains, skyrocketing 3.0% to print a major record high on Wednesday, 27 May. The explosive rally is heavily driven by its twin memory chip giants, Samsung Electronics (+158% YTD) and SK Hynix (+258% YTD), both of which have been vaulted into the exclusive $1-trillion-valuation club due to insatiable AI infrastructure demand.Japan eyeing June hike amid slumping currency: Despite massive sovereign bond yield volatility, reports reveal the Bank of Japan is actively eyeing a June interest rate hike. This comes as the Japanese yen's purchasing power sinks to fresh lows under the weight of expensive energy imports, leaving it tracking as one of the world's weakest major currencies. Concurrently, SoftBank is pulling in 30 leading Japanese manufacturers to back a major homegrown AI industrial data venture.India falter and capital exits accelerate: In stark contrast to its East Asian peers, India's benchmark equity indices are faltering as foreign institutional investors dump domestic shares at a record-breaking pace. Millions of retail investors are shifting capital out of the country into foreign markets (up 57% y/y) due to a complete lack of AI exposure at home, a rapidly depreciating Rupee, and consecutive fuel price hikes stoking structural inflation.Top 3 events to watch today US PCE Core Inflation (Apr) - 8:30 pm SGT (consensus: 3.3% y/y, Mar: 3.2% y/y) Impact: All asset classesUS Weekly Initial Jobless Claims - 8.30 pm SGT Impact: USD, short-term US Treasuries, US stock indicesUS-Iran peace deal news flows Impact: All asset classesChart of the day - Nikkei 225 at risk of minor setback Fig. 1: Japan 225 CFD minor trend as of 28 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). The price actions of the Japan 225 CFD (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) have hit a short-term inflection/resistance level of 66,190/558 on Wednesday, 27 May 2026, after it breached above the upper boundary of a major ascending channel, running from the 7 April 2026 low.In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator flashed out a prior bearish divergence condition at its overbought level before it staged a bearish breakdown below its 50 level.These observations suggest an impending minor corrective pull-back/setback. Watch the 65,665 key short-term pivotal resistance. A break below 64,620 near-term support (downside trigger level) may expose the next intermediate supports at 63,788/270 and 62,510 (also close to the 20-day moving average).However, a clearance above 65,665 invalidates the bearish scenario for a continuation of the bullish impulsive upmove sequence to retest the current all-time high area of 66,190/558 before potentially setting sight on the next intermediate resistance at 67,047 (Fibonacci extension). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Global financial markets are on edge as traders wait for clear details about the new US-Iran peace plan. After two months of intense tension and repeated ceasefire extensions, a concrete framework is finally being discussed. Both sides know what is at stake: the US wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened without conditions and Iran’s nuclear program dismantled, while Iran wants a full regional ceasefire and a withdrawal of US troops. The big question for markets now is whether negotiators can bring some still contradicting demands together in the next 60 days.Even with uncertainty still in the air, the current situation is giving strong support to risk assets. The fact that tensions are not turning into a wider war is a major positive change. This relief has pushed the tech-focused Nasdaq to new record highs above 30,000 this morning, up 4% since last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also broke records on Monday’s holiday and is trying to move higher, though today’s trading has been slower and more steady.This particularly reflects the large change seen in Crude Oil prices, down just shy of 10% since the weekly open. Daily FX Performance (15:56). May 27, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Still, there is some caution in the market because the White House has not shown much excitement about the final details of the deal. President Trump made it clear that Iran will not get immediate sanctions relief for giving up its highly enriched uranium. This firm position shows that, even though there is a Memorandum of Understanding, reaching a full treaty is still very complicated and faces many diplomatic challenges. Cross-Asset Daily Performance, May 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView Even if the risk of re-escalation has eased, many details are still unclear and traders are turning their attention back to economic data awaiting for the headlines. With few major events early this week, big investors are waiting for tomorrow’s important Core PCE report. This key inflation number will show if the recent oil-driven supply shocks have hurt the US economy more than expected, which could make things harder for the Federal Reserve’s next moves (the next FOMC meeting is on June 17).These are my final pieces on MarketPulse, so thank you for all who enjoyed the posts since a bit more than a year – I wish you success in the World of Trading and a long life in Markets.With time, resistance and resilience, things will fall in order.Don't forget to follow me on X (link below), send me messages for any questions and you can check out my website if you want to stay in contact.Safe Trades and Keep your eyes on the news!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets are rebalancing from Nasdaq to Dow Jones as risk-appetite is staying stableTraders are still remaining hopeful due to the pricing of a peace process with a deal pendingExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US stock indexes are going through a steady rebalancing today, with market risk appetite holding steady. Instead of a big sell-off, large investors are moving money out of the tech sector and into the more stable blue-chip stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.Traders remain deeply hopeful about the broader macroeconomic backdrop, largely because the tape has already priced in the Traders are optimistic about the overall economic outlook, mainly because the market has already factored in the details of the US-Iran peace process.The new Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) is the main reason for this positive mood, as it aims to settle the last major disagreements between the two countries. With the risk of energy supply problems now off the table, investors feel comfortable staying invested in stocks, even if the market's short-term gains are slowing down. One problem is that the latest news came more pessimistic than expected, with Trump announcing that he is not satisfied with the latest Iranian Deal – So that remains a story to develop.Upon hitting that historic target, short-term sellers immediately stepped into the tech sector to lock in massive profits, subsequently using that freshly generated liquidity to buy back the underperformed Dow Jones instead.This classic sector rotation is keeping the broader market entirely stable, capping the downside while investors patiently await the next wave of concrete geopolitical headlines to confirm the finalized treaty. Daily Market Performance (11:36). May 27, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Now, let’s take a look at the intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:The Dollar contradicts the peace trade – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overviewAll about the peace process – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateCryptos fail to generate momentum continuous confusion – BTC and Ethereum (ETH) Technical OutlookCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (12:34) – Source: TradingView – May 27, 2026 Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – May 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView Bulls resurfaced at the prior ATH (50,500) and are holding the Market in place – Still, keep an eye on the key support and the Pivot level right above (50,800) to determine who has the advantage.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsIntraday Pivot 50,800 to 50,900Memorial Day resistance 51,100 to 51,200Support LevelsFebruary ATH Pivot 50,400 to 50,500 (Short-term Bearish below)Pivotal Support – 49,000 to 49,100 (mid-term bearish below)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – May 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq wicked to new highs but is back once again below the 30,000 level, indicating some more doubts around immediate pricing – Keep track of the latest news to see if more upside is to be warranted or a correction could come.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels30,300 Daily Top and ATH29,850 - 30,000 Memorial Day top ResistanceCurrent ATH 30,327 on the CFDSupport Levels29,500 - 29,600 Pivot29,100 - 29,250 momentum support (short-term bearish below)28,000 minor supportPrior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300S&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – May 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is forming an intraday double top at 7,557, indicating that some trouble could be coming on the short-term.The action remains bullish long term but the latest news are clouding the picture.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels7,550 Memorial Day ATH Resistance (double top!)7,525 Past week's ATH Resistance now pivotCurrent ATH 7,557Support Levels7,450 - 7,460 Minor Support (Short-term bearish below – 4H 50-period MA (7,448)7,400 Key support7,320 to 7,340 Past week retracementPivotal Support 7,250 to 7,260Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.These are my final pieces on MarketPulse, so thank you for all who enjoyed the posts since a bit more than a year – I wish you success in the World of Trading and a long life in Markets.Don't forget to follow me on X (link below), send me messages for any questions and you can check out my website if you want to stay in contact.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to move sideways with ongoing confusion regarding the Iran peace processCryptos are not following Nasdaq as strongly as before, pointing to inherent Digital Asset weaknessExploring a Technical Analysis and trading levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and other cryptos are stuck in a narrow, frustrating range as uncertainty around the Iran peace process continues. Unlike traditional risk assets, cryptocurrencies are not following the recent surge in US stocks. While stock benchmarks hit new all-time highs after news from the Strait of Hormuz, digital assets have barely reacted. Bitcoin and Nasdaq correlation slowly fades – Source: JustETF.com. May 26, 2026 Bitcoin is holding near $76,000 and showing signs of resistance on daily charts, rather than breaking out. This slow movement shows that cryptocurrencies are not tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq as closely as they have in the past. The recent split suggests weakness in digital assets, as crypto investors are hesitant to take a clear direction while the outcome of the peace process is still uncertain. Daily Crypto Performance (16:37). May 26, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz It is still unclear if this underperformance will last. The lack of strong buying suggests that retail investors are holding back for now. However, Bitcoin is still holding its support levels even as the US Dollar rises, which shows that its base is solid – But some technical cracks might be starting to materialize. The question remains: If the geopolitical situation stabilizes, is there still a chance for a strong catch-up rally?Let's dive right into a technical analysis and key trading levels for both Bitcoin and Ethereum to spot if a clear breakout in indeed into play from here. Read More:Markets are sending mixed feelings on the peace Deal – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday LevelsThe Dollar contradicts the peace trade – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overviewChart alert: AUD/NZD rally set to continue after hitting 13-year highBitcoin (BTC) Daily Chart and Technical Levels Bitcoin (BTC) Daily Chart, May 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin attempted a breakout above its long-term pivot but could not hold it amid low conviction regarding a clean development for the US-Iran peace process.BTC could actually be forming a Head and Shoulders pattern, a bearish pattern that could take the main crypto back to $70,000 following a measured move approach.Still, as long as it holds above its 50-Day MA ($74,800), the outlook is more bullish-neutral than bearish.Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels:4H 200-period MA ($77,000)$75,000 Key long-term Pivot (acting as resistance)$70,000 Short-term momentum Pivot$60,000 to $63,000 Main 2024 support (recent double bottom)$59,935 February LowsResistance Levels:$74,800 50-Day MA$80,000 to $83,000 mini-resistance (entering, bullish above)$82,500 cycle highs$90,000 to $95,000 minor Resistance$98,000 to $100,000 Pivotal ResistanceCurrent ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000Ethereum (ETH) Daily Chart and Technical Levels Ethereum (ETH) Daily Chart, May 26, 2026– Source: TradingView Ethereum is still showing weaker action compared to Bitcoin, having broken below its 50-Day Moving average ($2,220) and just holding above its October downtrend, leaving the crypto in a more balanced than bearish outlook.Any move below $2,000 could accelerate the selloff in the broader altcoin Market, but as long as the action remain above the key level, bulls can still remain optimistic.Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:mini-support $2,000$1,700 to $1,800 Pre-Bounce 2025 Key Support (testing)$1,744 February 6 lows$1,380 to $1,500 2025 Support2025 Lows $1,384Resistance Levels:Daily 50 MA $2,220Mini-Resistance $2,400$2,500 to $2,800 June 2025 Pivotal Resistance$3,000 to $3,200 Major momentum Pivot (Test of the $3,000)$4,950 Current new All-time highsThe narrative is easing, but keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways AUD/NZD remains in a firm medium-term uptrend after hitting a fresh 13-year high, supported by widening Australian-New Zealand bond yield spreads and stronger RBA hawkishness versus the RBNZ.Markets expect the RBNZ to deliver a “hawkish hold” at 2.25%, but investors continue to price in a relatively more aggressive tightening path from the RBA amid persistent inflation pressures.Technical indicators suggest bullish momentum remains intact above 1.2130 support, with AUD/NZD poised for a potential breakout above 1.2250 toward 1.2310 and 1.2380/2400. New Zealand’s central bank, RBNZ, is set to announce its monetary policy decision tomorrow, Wednesday, 27 May 2026, at 10:00 SGT follow by RBNZ Governor Breman's press conference an hour later.Market participants are expecting the RBNZ to hold its official cash rate at 2.25% tomorrow. The RBNZ has adopted a “wait and see” approach since it ended its interest rate cut cycle in November 2026, citing stagflation risk arising from the US-Iran war in the last meeting in April.The RBNZ will also publish its latest official cash rate (OCR) forecast track in Wednesday’s monetary policy release, with money markets fully pricing in a 25-basis point hike in September and further bets on the possibility of two more hikes of 25 bps each to come in Q4 2026.Hence, it is a “hawkish hold” for RBNZ after tomorrow’s meeting, given that the Q1 2026 core inflation rate in New Zealand came in at 3.2% y/y, staying above RBNZ’s 1%-3% long-term inflation target.RBNZ lags RBA in hawkish monetary policy stance Fig. 1: Australia-New Zealand 2-YR & 10-YR sovereign bond yields major trends as of 26 May 2026 (Source: Trading View). Despite the RBNZ’s potential “hawkish hold” monetary policy guidance, it still lags behind its antipodean cousin, the RBA (Australian central bank). So far, RBA has three times in 2026, a total of 75 bps.Fixed-income markets have continued to price in a more hawkish RBA over RBNZ.The 2-year bond yield spread (highly sensitive to shifts in monetary policies) between Australian and New Zealand sovereign bonds has continued its trade within a major uptrend phase since October 2023. Recent price actions have staged a rebound to 1.07% from 0.99% printed in the week of 18 May 2026 (see Fig. 1).Similar movement can be seen in the longer-term 10-year bond yield spread (more sensitive to inflation dynamics) between Australian and New Zealand sovereign bonds, which have remained resilient at 0.28%, trading at a near 6-year high.Hence, a further expansion in the yield premium of Australian sovereign bonds over New Zealand bonds is likely to put further upside pressure on the AUD/NZD cross rate.Let’s now unpack the medium-term (1 to 3 weeks) potential trajectory of the AUD/NZD from a technical analysis perspective.AUD/NZD – Poised for a bullish breakout above 1.2250 Fig. 2: NZD/USD medium-term trend as of 26 May 2026 (Source: Trading View). Trend bias: Bullish bias above 1.2130 key medium-term pivotal support (Fig. 2).Resistances: 1.2250 (15 May 2026 minor swing high), 1.2310 (Fibonacci extension), and 1.2380/2400 (Fibonacci extension, ascending channel’s upper boundary, 11 August 2011/2 October 2012 former range support)Next supports: 1.2050 (9 April/14 April 2026 swing lows), and 1.1990 (25 March/31 March 2026 former minor range resistance)Key elements to support the medium-term bullish bias on AUD/NZD The price actions of the AUD/NZD have continued to trade above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages since 4 February 2026, suggesting that its medium-term uptrend phase remains intact.The 4-hour RSI momentum indicator has just staged a bullish breakout from a key descending resistance, reached its overbought region (above the 70 level) but without any bearish divergence signal. These observations imply that medium-term bullish momentum conditions remain intact. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Memorial Day session delivered a lot of positive news, creating a strong bullish outlook for the coming trading week. The recent US-Iran draft agreement gave the broader market a major boost, and now institutional investors are expecting a formal deal to be reached during this final ceasefire extension.A key outcome from these diplomatic talks is the clear expectation that the important Strait of Hormuz will reopen within 30 days. This breakthrough led to a sharp correction in energy markets, with WTI Crude Oil dropping by 7% during the holiday session.The US Dollar also fell along with crude, as the war-related inflation premium and safe-haven demand quickly faded from the broader economic picture. Cross-Asset Daily Performance, May 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView Although today's price movements were dramatic, trading activity was lighter than usual because of global holiday closures. Tomorrow, as traders return from the long weekend, expect much higher trading volumes and more decisive market moves as they respond to this important geopolitical development.Safe Trades and Keep your eyes on the news!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Daily FX Performance (16:14). May 25, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

WTI Oil is back to early May levels, when initial peace processes were announced as Trump foreshadowed a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz in 30 daysCrude tumbles 7% in this low volume session, looking to confirm price and volume but the narrative is positive for Markets to start the weekExploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of Crude Oil WTI Crude Oil is experiencing a concrete free-fall today, tumbling 7% and crashing right back down to early May levels. The huge catalyst driving this violent downside action is President Trump's blockbuster announcement foreshadowing a complete reopening of the critical Strait of Hormuz within the next 30 days. Peace Deal odds for July 31 – Source: Polymarket. May 25, 2026. Although this severe collapse is unfolding during a notably low-volume holiday trading session, traders are still looking to confirm the price action and volume. Regardless, the overarching narrative provides an incredibly positive, fundamental tailwind for broader financial markets to kick off the trading week.While the headline alone is enough to severely drain the geopolitical risk premium from the energy sector, traders remain acutely aware of the complex physical realities on the ground. Crude oil may only experience its true, structural correction once the strait actually resumes normal maritime operations (120 ships ~ per day), and even then, existing supply droughts will inevitably create lagging effects before physical prices can fully normalize lower.Nevertheless, this massive diplomatic breakthrough represents the most concrete, actionable news the market has received in over two months. Looking at the explosive reactions across global assets as futures markets finally open to start the (shortened) week, traders active during this holiday session are treating this breakthrough as a profoundly pivotal turning point for the entire energy complex.Now, let's take a closer look at the technical analysis for WTI Crude to see if prices can continue to correct. Read More:Markets are closed, but futures are exploding – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday LevelsAsia open: US futures gap up on US-Iran peace deal hopes with US dollar in retreatA final path to peace? Markets Weekly OutlookUS Oil Intraday Timeframe AnalysisWTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels WTI Oil 4H Chart – May 25, 2026. Source: TradingView WTI Crude has just broken its large triangle formation, holding since Early April and forecasting more downside ahead.The headlines just landed and traders will have to be critical of how serious the idea of a Hormuz reopening really is, but what is sure is that the dynamic in Oil has changed.Reaching a key support, long-term bearish momentum will be more probable if the actions fails to rebound above the $96 level (top of the Momentum Support).WTI Technical Levels:Resistance Levels$98 to $100 Pivot (4H 200-period MA Short-term bearish below)$103.03 4H 50-period MA$106 to $108 June 2022 Resistance$109 Triangle resistance2022 and Monday highs $117 to $120 (larger channel top)Support LevelsMomentum Support $93 - $95 (testing) fully bearish below$90 Psychological level$87 to $90 mini-SupportMicro support $85$82 Friday 17 lows2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $801H Chart and action levels WTI Oil 1H Chart – May 25, 2026. Source: TradingView A good sign for bears is the fact that despite the oversold conditions, for a first time, bulls haven't surged back in to buy the dip indicating a change in momentum.With the 50-Hour MA crossing below the 200-MA, expect more sells on pops rather than buys on dips.This confirms especially more if bulls fail to close tomorrow's session above the $96 highs.Breaching below $90 re-opens the way towards $80 and lower.Safe Trades and Keep your eyes on the news!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Despite the Market closure for Memorial Day and other celebrations around the world, Futures are exploding on further peace pricingThis week is expected to be pivotal for further rallies to new highs, with more concrete advancements well expectedExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Even though the spot market is closed for Memorial Day and other global holidays, US stock futures are surging today as investors react to news of a possible peace agreement.The diplomatic stalemate is ending, with reports confirming that Iran’s top negotiator and foreign minister are in Doha to work on a deal to end the conflict. Iran is reportedly willing to send its highly enriched uranium to China, which is seen as a major breakthrough and is boosting risk assets.This optimism is driving equity futures to new highs – Dow Jones futures have reached a record 51,000, while Nasdaq futures are approaching the 30,000 level. The S&P 500 is also extending its gains above 7,500.As the shortened holiday futures session nears its end, momentum is slowing and traders are taking profits and waiting for regular trading hours to resume. The coming week is expected to be important for market direction, to see if diplomatic progress continues, and if further gains are possible.Now, let’s take a look at the intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:Asia open: US futures gap up on US-Iran peace deal hopes with US dollar in retreatA final path to peace? Markets Weekly OutlookECB between fighting inflation and weaker growthDow Jones 1H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 1H Chart – May 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsDaily resistance 51,100 to 51,200daily highs 51,150Next stop 51,500Support LevelsIntraday Pivot 50,800 to 50,900Prior ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500 (now pivot)Pivotal Support – 49,000 to 49,100 (short-term bearish below)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (mid-term bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 1H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 1H Chart – May 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels29,850 - 30,000 New ATH ResistanceDaily highs 29,932Support Levels29,500 - 29,600 Pivot29,100 - 29,250 momentum pivot28,500 Minor support28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)S&P 500 1H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 1H Chart – May 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels7,550 Daily ATH ResistanceCurrent ATH 7,557Next stop 7,600Support Levels7,525 Past week's ATH Resistance now pivot7,450 - 7,460 Minor Support7,400 Key support (Short-term bearish below)7,320 to 7,340 Past week retracementPivotal Support 7,250 to 7,260Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Global risk sentiment improved sharply after senior U.S. officials signalled that a U.S.-Iran peace agreement may be nearing completion, triggering strong gains in U.S. equity futures and sending the U.S. dollar lower.The U.S. economy is showing increasing stagflationary pressures as consumer sentiment collapsed to a record low while inflation expectations continued to rise, placing new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh under immediate policy pressure.Asia Pacific markets rallied on easing geopolitical fears, led by Japan’s Nikkei 225 hitting a fresh all-time high, while Southeast Asia’s accelerating shift toward biofuels is beginning to create broader food supply and inflation risks across the region.Chart of the day: WTI crude bearish break below 50-day MA with key short-term resistance at $100.80/bbl. Potential near-term weakness to expose intermediate supports at $90.50 and $87.60.Top macro headlines US officials signalled an imminent US-Iran peace deal: In contrast to U.S. President Donald Trump, who stated earlier on Sunday that he told his representatives "not to rush" into any deal with Iran, senior US officials hightlighted that US and Iran are closing on in a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that triggered an intraday rally in S&P 500 (+0.8%) and Nasdaq 100 (+1.3%) E-mini futures in today’s Asia opening session.US consumer sentiment plunges to an all-time record Low: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped to 44.8 in May, the lowest level on record, falling below the pandemic and 2008 financial crisis troughs. The collapse is directly tied to soaring gasoline prices approaching $5 a gallon nationwide due to the ongoing Middle East conflict.Kevin Warsh sworn In as Fed Chair amid stagflation: Kevin Warsh officially took the helm of the U.S. Federal Reserve on Friday. He assumes leadership of a central bank navigating a treacherous environment where surging fuel costs are driving up inflation and rapidly eroding consumer demand.Gold Surges as dollar weakens: Spot gold prices rose 1.2% to $4,564/oz on Monday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and lower oil prices due to an uptick in optimism over an imminent US-Iran peace deal.Southeast Asia pivots to biofuels, threatening food supply: Cut off from Middle Eastern energy by the Strait of Hormuz closure, Southeast Asian nations are shifting palm oil and local crops into diesel and gasoline blends. This hasty transition is squeezing regional supplies for cooking oil, animal feed, and agricultural exports.Key macro themes Geopolitical whiplash & energy uncertainty: Conflicting messaging between US officials over US-Iran peace deal. While oil prices had initially hit two-week lows on peace optimism, the lack of a finalized deal means the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, perpetuating the global supply shock.Stagflationary pressures worsen: With consumer sentiment at record lows and 1-year inflation expectations rising to 4.8%, according to the final May reading of the University of Michigan US consumer sentiment survey, the U.S. economy is flashing classic stagflation warning signs. Rising pump prices are disproportionately impacting lower-income consumers, severely challenging the incoming Fed Chair's policy options.Food vs. fuel crisis in emerging markets: The prolonged energy shock is forcing structural shifts in emerging markets. Southeast Asia's desperate turn to crops for fuel highlights how the geopolitical oil crisis is spilling over into global agricultural and food security supply chains, compounding inflation risks.Global market impact (last 48 hours) Equities: The S&P 500's 8-week rally is showing signs of potential buyer exhaustion, according to several technical analysis elements. Even if a US-Iran peace deal is finalized, it could trigger a "sell the news" event, leaving the broader market at risk of rolling over as the historically weak month of June approaches.Fixed Income: Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a daunting bond market environment. With U.S. long-term 5-year inflation expectations surging to 3.9% (the highest level since October 2025, based on May’s survey data from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report), Treasury yields remain highly sensitive to any further energy-driven inflation spikes.FX: The U.S. Dollar weakened over the weekend, offering a slight reprieve to emerging market currencies and making greenback-priced commodities, such as gold and silver, more affordable for international buyers.Commodities: Oil prices initially hit two-week lows on peace deal optimism, but the market remains highly reactive to Trump's subsequent "do not rush" remarks. Meanwhile, spot gold jumped 1.2% to $4,564/oz, and spot silver surged 3.1% to $77.85/oz. Asia Pacific impact Stock markets & regional security: Key Asia Pacific markets are starting the week with a bullish footing, in line with the intraday rallies seen in US futures; NIkkei 225 skyrocketed by 3.1% to hit a fresh intraday all-time high of 65,330. China A50 (+0.7%), ASX 200 (+0.6%), STI (+0.6%). Regional defense and security are taking center stage this week. The Quad foreign ministers (U.S., Japan, India, Australia) are meeting in New Delhi on Tuesday, with the Iran war featuring prominently, followed by the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on Friday.Commodities & food security: Indonesia and Malaysia's rapid shifts toward higher biodiesel blends to replace lost Middle Eastern oil are squeezing cooking oil supplies. This diversion is expected to drive up food inflation and disrupt export balances across the region.Diplomatic realignment: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is embarking on a visit to Japan to upgrade bilateral relations, reflecting broader regional efforts to secure energy cooperation and maritime security amid global instability.Top 2 events to watch today US-Iran peace deal news flows Impact: All asset classesSG Core Inflation (Apr) - 1:00 SGT (consensus: 1.7% y/y, Mar: 1.7%) Impact: USD/SGD, SGD crosses, STIChart of the day - WTI crude bearish break below 50-day moving average Fig. 1: West Texas oil CFD minor trend as of 25 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). The price actions of the West Texas oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures) have staged an intraday bearish breakdown below its 50-day moving average on Monday, 25 May’s Asian opening season, its first breakdown after prior price actions challenged the 50-day moving average on the previous two occasions (6 May 2026, and 17 April 2026).Hourly RSI momentum is still showing near-term bearish momentum conditions (oversold but no bullish divergence condition).Watch the $100.80 short-term pivotal resistance (also close to the 50-day moving average) for further potential weakness to expose the next intermediate supports at $90.50 and $87.60.On the flip side, a clearance with an hourly close above $100.80 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at $105.75 and $109.35. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Discover our Weekly Market Outlook, exploring themes and events that forged financial flows throughout the week.Participants went through a rollercoaster of emotions in the past week between a rejected Iranian offer to a severe hawkish repricing and finally, a promising path to peaceTraders are getting ready for next week's important bet for peaceGet ready for next week's action by exploring upcoming events across global Markets.Week in review – Earnings break records, pulling Markets higher Market participants endured an absolute rollercoaster of emotions over the past five sessions, navigating a landscape that violently whipsawed between extreme fear and sudden euphoria. The week kicked off with intense anxiety as the United States firmly rejected an initial Iranian diplomatic offer, a move that immediately spiked crude oil prices and threatened to reignite severe inflationary pressures.Compounding this geopolitical dread was a severe, hawkish monetary repricing. Following the official confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the incoming Federal Reserve Chairman, institutional capital aggressively scrambled to price in a revolutionary, austere era of balance sheet reduction. This emerging trade unleashed a ruthless wave of US Dollar dominance, temporarily suffocating equities, precious metals, and crypto beneath the weight of surging bond yields.However, just as the technical charts looked their bleakest, the narrative completely flipped. A sudden, highly promising path to peace emerged, supported by strategic Middle Eastern mediation. This breakthrough triggered a massive, risk-on relief rally heading into the weekend. As the geopolitical clouds finally begin to clear, traders are aggressively recalibrating their portfolios, getting ready for next week's incredibly important bet on global stability.Weekly Performance across Asset Classes Weekly Asset Performance – May 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView With Oil tumbling 7%, the rest of the Market shines – European Stock Markets are once again at the top of global assets.Keep an eye on the huge outflows in Cryptos towards the end of the week. Discover:ECB between fighting inflation and weaker growthStock Markets dance towards new records ahead of a long weekend – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday LevelsUSD/JPY trades close to 160.00 after Japan's CPI – More interventions required? – FX AnalysisThe Week Ahead – GDP releases and a potential path to peaceAsia Pacific Markets – RBNZ Meeting, Australian and Japanese CPI The entire action in Asia will be focused on Wednesday and Thursday, with a key inflation release for Australia, shortly followed by the RBNZ Rate Decision, where a hike is mostly priced.And don't forget the Japanese (Tokyo) CPI on Thursday evening.Europe and UK Markets – German CPI and many Central Bank Speeches The action will be relatively dull in Europe with only Central Bank Speeches, all the way to Friday with the German CPI.Expect European traders to focus on US Dollar flows and the entire Iran peace process.North American Markets – US and Canadian GDP Next week will be focusing on the American and Canadian GDP releases, in between a few lower tier numbers.Don't forget to keep a close eye on US Markets and the entire US-Iran peace process, with huge expectations for an actual entente.Next Week's High Tier Economic Events Next week's Economic Calendar – Courtesy of TradingEconomics Safe Trades and keep an eye on US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Inflation in France, Italy, Germany and Spain is expected to remain above the ECB’s 2% target.Persistent price pressure, driven partly by energy risks and supply concerns, may strengthen the case for a June rate hike.The ECB faces a difficult choice between fighting inflation and avoiding further weakness in eurozone growth. Inflation in the largest eurozone economies likely rose in May or remained at an elevated level. The latest data from France, Italy, Germany and Spain will therefore be crucial in assessing whether the European Central Bank decides to raise interest rates in June. Such a move would mark a significant shift in direction after a series of cuts that have eased financing conditions in the region in recent months.Inflation readings from the four largest eurozone economies are due to be published on May 29. Their importance is particularly high because France, Italy, Germany and Spain account for a substantial share of economic activity across the entire single-currency area. The results from these countries will therefore have a strong impact on the aggregate eurozone inflation reading, scheduled for June 2.Inflation still above the ECB’s targetIn April, inflation in the eurozone stood at 3%, remaining clearly above the European Central Bank’s 2% target. Economists’ forecasts suggest that May did not bring any significant improvement. In France, inflation may have risen from 2.5% to 2.9%. In Spain, it likely remained at 3.5%. In Italy, it may have accelerated to 3.3%, and in Germany, it may have stayed at 2.9%. Inflation rate in Germany, France, Italy and Spain, source: Bloomberg Persisting price pressure is being driven mainly by more expensive energy and concerns about potential disruptions to commodity supplies, including the risk of the Strait of Hormuz being closed. This is one of the most important routes for transporting crude oil, which is why tensions around the region quickly feed into inflation expectations. Bond markets have also begun to price in more strongly the risk that elevated inflation will persist longer than previously assumed.Stronger arguments for a rate hikeAmong policymakers and economists, there is a growing belief that the European Central Bank may be forced to respond. EU Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said the central bank’s response to persistent inflationary pressure is “clear.” Meanwhile, ECB member Alexander Demarco described a June rate hike as “likely.”Bloomberg Economics economist Simona Delle Chiaie points to a similarly cautious scenario. In her view, the ECB may decide to raise interest rates in order to prevent inflation from becoming more entrenched. At the same time, she notes that weaker economic conditions and a cooler labor market may limit the risk of a lasting price spiral, which complicates the central bank’s decision. A difficult choice between inflation and economic growthIf the May data confirm that inflation in the largest eurozone economies remains stubbornly high, the ECB may decide to raise interest rates for the first time since September 2023. This would be a clear shift after a series of eight cuts that brought the deposit rate down to 2%. For households and businesses, such a scenario would mean the risk of more expensive credit and tougher financing conditions. Higher interest rates help curb inflation, but at the same time they may weaken investment, consumption and the pace of economic growth. EURUSD, daily timeframe, source: Trading View The European Central Bank is therefore facing a difficult dilemma. On the one hand, it must defend the credibility of its inflation target and respond to rising prices. On the other hand, it should be careful not to let an overly decisive tightening of monetary policy deepen the eurozone economy’s slowdown. The May inflation data may determine which of these concerns proves more important for the ECB. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets are rebounding higher as traders continue to remain optimistic for the peace dealWith Trump boasting about the rally to new records, nothing seems to be barring the path to All-time highsExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US stock benchmarks are aggressively dancing back toward uncharted territory as a massive wave of geopolitical optimism sweeps across the trading floor, right ahead of a long weekend for the US, for Memorial Day. Traders are feeling optimistic thanks to the ongoing diplomatic efforts, quickly moving past the doubts they had yesterday – The main reason for today’s strong relief rally is a Sky News report confirming that an agreement regarding the nuclear issue was reached. This diplomatic step is meant to help secure a formal end-of-war deal, easing tensions in the Middle East and giving risk assets the hope they need.President Trump is highlighting the strong rally, signaling that the administration views this as a clear path to new all-time highs – The threat of renewed warfare that worried markets last week is quickly fading.Oil prices are falling, breaking below key support levels and easing the inflation concerns that had worried bond markets. As geopolitical risks decrease, institutional investors are moving back into riskier stocks, fueling a strong bullish trend.The tech-focused Nasdaq is leading the way, setting new records as semiconductor and Magnificent 7 stocks continue to rise. The S&P 500 is also regaining strength as overall market sentiment improves. At the same time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is moving higher, breaking through resistance and heading back toward its prior record (Futures actually broke their prior record). With immediate geopolitical risks fading, the market is also appreciating the sworn-in from Kevin Warsh.Now, let’s take a look at the intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:ECB between fighting inflation and weaker growthUSD/JPY trades close to 160.00 after Japan's CPI – More interventions required? – FX AnalysisAsia open: Stock markets surge on US-Iran peace progress and soft Japan CPICurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (13:54 – Market Closed) – Source: TradingView – May 22, 2026 Dow Jones 1H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 1H Chart – May 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsPotential resistance 50,800 to 50,900 (daily highs 50,858)Next stop 51,000 - 51,100Support LevelsPrior ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500 (now pivot)Pivotal Support – 49,000 to 49,100 (short-term bearish below)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (mid-term bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 1H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 1H Chart – May 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels29,500 - 29,600 current resistanceCurrent ATH 29,698Next stop 30,000Support Levels29,100 - 29,250 momentum pivot28,500 Minor support28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)27,500 micro-supportPrior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300S&P 500 1H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 1H Chart – May 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels7,500 - 7,525 Daily ATH ResistanceCurrent ATH 7,524Support Levels7,430 - 7,450 Intraday Pivot7,400 Key support (Short-term bearish below)7,320 to 7,340 Past week retracementPivotal Support 7,250 to 7,260Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

As always, USD/JPY is playing its own game within all the FX craziness seen in 2026 – While most other major pairs have regained some strength against the US Dollar, the Yen remains weak.Japan's latest inflation numbers surprised currency markets and added to the ongoing weakness of the yen. In April, the core consumer price index, which leaves out fresh food but includes energy, rose just 1.4% from a year earlier, below the expected 1.7% and much lower compared to other countries (as seen with Canadian PPI this morning for example, up 2% m/m!). The Bank of Japan's preferred measure, the core-core CPI, which excludes both fresh food and energy, slowed to 1.9% from 2.4% in March. This is the lowest level since July 2024 and puts inflation back below the central bank's 2% target. The main reason for this slowdown is the government's use of fuel subsidies, which are offsetting the impact of oil price shocks from the Middle East. Daily FX Performance (8:59). May 21, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz As a result, the weak inflation data means there is less pressure on the Bank of Japan to tighten its loose monetary policy right now. This increases the gap between Japan's approach and that of other major economies. The yen has remained weak in foreign exchange markets since 2020, and officials at the Ministry of Finance are still looking for ways to address the situation.On top of this, the US Dollar has been especially strong this year, supported by a firm Federal Reserve and a solid US economy. As a result, the USD/JPY back to trading close to the key 160.00 level, implying failed interventions as seen in the past month.If the Bank of Japan can't raise rates to support the yen, the Ministry of Finance may have to step in yet again to prevent a further decline – but this extra intervention could make the Yen lose its status of free floating currency.Let's dive right into an intraday-timeframe analysis for USD/JPY. Read More:Asia open: Stock markets surge on US-Iran peace progress and soft Japan CPICryptos pulled back but sentiment rebounds, Opportunity? – BTC and Ethereum (ETH) Technical OutlookStock Markets stall, too early for the deal ? Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday LevelsUSD/JPY Multi-Timeframe Analysis4H Chart USD/JPY 4H Chart. May 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/JPY erased about 3/4 of its end-April intervention, with bulls happy to consistently fade the Ministry of Japan, with the fundamentals for the currency not changing the slightest.Japanese PM Takaichi is still a dove, the Bank of Japan is still stuck below 1%, and Japanese inflation still pops lower compared to its G7 peers amid global inflation fears.Something to keep your eyes on, particularly for mean-reversion traders, is the potential end to the Middle East conflict, which would ease hawkish stance across central banks, and this tends to help the yen – Looking at the charts, despite a tight 400 pip range since Monday, the RSI is slowing.Let's take a closer look.1H Chart and Technical Levels USD/JPY 1H Chart. May 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/JPY is indeed stuck in a very tight range between 158.80 to 159.20, with the 50-hour MA acting as support to the downside.Looking at the current action after such a rally, overbought levels could simply be easing, indicating higher chances of an upside breakout.But with the descending momentum, a selloff also makes technical sense.The idea would be to watch the upper and lower bounds of the range to play a breakout.Resistance levelsmini-resistance 159.300159.50 to 159.70 2026 Major Resistance (range highs)April 2024 160.00 to 160.40 Major ResistanceJune Mini resistance 160.70 to 161.00Support levels159.02 (50-Hour MA)Mid-range pivot 158.75 bull above, bear belowDecember highs Major Pivot 157.50 to 158.00 (range lows)156.00 Pivotal Support155.00 Mini-SupportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets are remaining quite rangebound and muted as traders ease their ecstatic moodThe early morning action was quite muted, with some slow profit-taking – Traders are awaiting for the next communicationsExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US stock benchmarks are remaining quite rangebound and muted in today's session as traders actively ease their ecstatic mood following yesterday's explosive peace rally. The early morning price action is characterized by a cautious market, with some accelerating profit-taking. Tech and consumer defensive sectors (Particularly Walmart, down 7%!) are officially leading a modest pullback across the board, dragging both the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq somewhat lower on the day. However, the selling pressure is far from a panic; the downward action remains tightly contained as institutional capital simply digests the recent historic highs. Daily Market Performance (11:24). May 21, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Instead of aggressively pushing new positions, traders are actively stepping to the sidelines and patiently awaiting the next definitive headlines (particularly surrounding the deal). The market is desperately looking for concrete communications regarding the fragile US-Iran diplomatic deal, especially after conflicting headlines regarding uranium stockpiles reintroduced heavy geopolitical uncertainty into the energy sector.More importantly, Wall Street is firmly bracing for tomorrow's key event at the White House, where Kevin Warsh will be officially sworn in as the new Federal Reserve Chairman. With sweeping, austere changes to the central bank's balance sheet potentially on the horizon, institutional investors are understandably hesitant to commit fresh capital. Until Warsh's initial policy remarks dictate the next structural trend for global liquidity, Markets are taking a breather.Let's get ready by diving into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:The deal is still quite unsure, Crude Oil back above $100 – WTI Technical analysisAsia open: Relief rally in stock markets as Trump signals final stages of U.S.-Iran peace dealAUD/USD picks up momentum ahead of Australian employment – In-depth FX analysisCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:05) – Source: TradingView – May 19, 2026 The Market is mostly red on the session except for semiconductors persistently running higher, helping the broader performance to sustain the daily dip.Walmart and Nvidia are dragging the overall mood lower but other Equities are for now just correcting slightly.Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – May 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView Momentum for the Dow Jones is actually looking quite tepid after failing to hold above 50,000 in the morning session.After hitting 50,200 twice, sellers have brought the index right back into its main resistance zone, creating a bearish divergence at the same time.Still, the price action remains more balanced than bearish, hence the best to do with such movement is to look for breakouts (50,250 on the buy side, 49,850 on the sell side).Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 Highs (range top)50,200 past session topsATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500All-Time Highs 50,544Support LevelsApril 14 Gap Fill Pivot 49,500Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (range lows)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (mid-term bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – May 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView Despite the early selloff, Nasdaq is managing to push for a rebound on its 2H 50-period MA (29,050).Bulls will want to see continuation above 29,400, while failing to do so will retest the 50-MA.Any break below 29,000 should continue lower.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels29,100 - 29,250 consolidation and momentum pivot29,500 - 29,600 current resistance (ATH)Support Levels28,500 Minor support28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)27,500 micro-supportPrior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300S&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – May 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is forming a similar pattern as Nasdaq – hence the technical developments to look for are the same:Bulls will want to see a breakout above the 7,430 - 7,450 intraday resistance (yesterday highs)A break below 7,400 should see further continuation towards the downside back towards 7,340S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels7,430 - 7,450 Intraday Resistance7,525 Daily ATH ResistanceSupport Levels7,400 Channel Pivot (Short-term bearish below)7,320 to 7,340 Past week retracement (and Channel lows)Pivotal Support 7,250 to 7,260Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

WTI Oil corrected strongly yesterday on Trump's announcement that a deal is close, but the reality could be less optimisticTraders are preparing for a rocky path to peace, as with the situation still unsure, Oil rallies back above $100Exploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of Crude Oil WTI Crude Oil corrected strongly yesterday following President Trump's optimistic announcement that a diplomatic deal was in its final stages, but the geopolitical reality is proving to be much less straightforward.As the market quickly learned this morning, sometimes, headlines aren't enough – Especially when Trump is posting a dozen each day.Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has reportedly announced that the nation insists on keeping its near-weapons-grade enriched uranium stockpile within its borders.This condition remains an absolute dealbreaker for the United States so this could prove to be another barrier to a longer-run deal.Despite yesterday's massive wave of diplomatic enthusiasm, it is now clear that the proposed agreement still harbors severe, contentious roadblocks that must be navigated before any true resolution is reached. Peace Deal odds for June 30 – Source: Polymarket. May 21, 2026. Consequently, traders are actively preparing for a highly rocky and volatile path to peace.With the immediate diplomatic situation once again steeped in heavy uncertainty, the geopolitical risk premium is aggressively flooding right back into energy markets, sending WTI violently rallying back above the $100 psychological handle today.Now, let's take a closer look at the technical analysis for WTI Crude to see if prices can remain above $100 for long. Read More:Asia open: Relief rally in stock markets as Trump signals final stages of U.S.-Iran peace dealAUD/USD picks up momentum ahead of Australian employment – In-depth FX analysisUS-Iran deal in final stages: Markets are exploding – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday LevelsUS Oil Intraday Timeframe AnalysisWTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels WTI Oil 4H Chart – May 20, 2026. Source: TradingView WTI Crude is stuck in a large triangle formation, currently consolidating $110 to $98 – A key development to watch out for.Recently rejecting its upper bound on rumors of a new deal, the commodity broke its upward channel but this wasn't enough for sellers to push momentum lower.Buyers stepped back into the commodity just shy of the 4H 200-period MA and the commodity is now back 5% higher since – Check out reactions within the $106 - $108 resistance zone as the action gets back there.WTI Technical Levels:Resistance Levels$106.50 broken channel lows$106 to $108 June 2022 Resistance$109 Triangle resistance2022 and Monday highs $117 to $120 (larger channel top)Support Levels$98 to $100 Pivot (4H 200-period MA – Short-term bearish below)Momentum Support $93 - $95$90 Psychological level and past session's lows$87 to $90 mini-Support$82 Friday 17 lows2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $801H Chart and action levels WTI Oil 1H Chart – May 20, 2026. Source: TradingView Bulls are stepping back aggressively, as the narrative of a compromised deal continues to fuel intraday rallies.The 50-Hour MA has just been breached, but it could still weigh on the price action, hence traders will want to keep a close eye on it (4H close for confirmation?)Mean-reversion traders will want to see either rejection here or at the upper resistance lines drawn from the triangle and broken channel formations.Safe Trades and Keep your eyes on the news!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

In recent days, Forex Markets have seen a strong increase in activity, moving away from their earlier steady trends. The confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair added volatility, but today’s trading is mainly driven by a sharp drop in the US Dollar.Before the recent moves in the US Dollar, Antipodean currencies like the New Zealand Dollar and especially the Australian Dollar were already among the top performers, thanks to optimism around the Iran peace talks. Today, that positive trend gained further support after President Trump announced that a diplomatic deal between the US and Iran is close to completion, easing geopolitical concerns.This breakthrough is easing pressure on global energy supply chains and causing oil prices to fall. As a result, the US Dollar is weakening because the risk of war-driven inflation is fading. Lower energy costs are especially good news for oil-importing countries in the Asia-Pacific, which helps explain why the Australian Dollar is leading today’s forex gains. The AUD/USD pair is also benefiting from renewed global risk appetite.Looking ahead, the focus is rapidly shifting to the critical Australian jobs report scheduled for later this evening. The market expects 17.5K new jobs, a slight slowdown from last month’s 17.9K. Overall, this slower growth is what the Reserve Bank of Australia wants, after raising rates twice to cool the economy in recent meetings. A gradual slowdown in the labor market gives the RBA more flexibility, but a miss could easily see a fast pace correction in the pair's prior bounce. The upcoming employment data will show if the Australian Dollar’s recent strength can continue. Read More: US-Iran deal in final stages: Markets are exploding – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday LevelsThe Warsh Trade is taking Markets by the horn – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateNVIDIA (NVDA) Technical: Potential mean reversion decline below 236.54 as earnings loomAUD/USD Multi-timeframe AnalysisDaily Chart AUD/USD Daily Chart, May 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView AUD/USD is rebounding quite strongly on its 50-Day moving average, rebounding above 600 pips since.The current daily candle still wasn't strong enough to extend beyond the previous and form a bullish engulfing – Hence this shows some relative hesitancy from Market participants.Today's candle however offers great breakout levels:Any push on high volume and momentum above previous highs (0.7175) should see continuation above 0.72On the contrary, a push below the daily lows (0.7090) and the 50-day MA could extend back towards 0.704H Chart AUD/USD 4H Chart, May 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Momentum is slowing down hard ahead of the key data releasing during the overnight session, with the action consolidating at the 4H 200-period MA (0.71480).Intraday buyers will want to see a break above today's highs, while sellers will want to see a clear push below the 200-MALevels of interest for AUD/USD:Resistance Levels0.7175 Daily highs2023 Highs from 0.7140 to 0.7160 Resistance June 2022 Extremes 0.72 to 0.72302026 highs 0.7280 to 0.730.7278 May and 2026 highsSupport LevelsDaily Lows 0.70900.7070 - 0.71 Intraday Pivot0.6970 - 0.70 Support0.69 to 0.6935 Early Feb Support0.68340 War lows1H Chart AUD/USD 1H Chart, May 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Aussie is pulling back from short-timeframe overbought conditions, with the action likely to stay put ahead of the data.Watch for a potential test of the 50-Hour MA ahead of the data, releasing overnight.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Markets are back on a happy ride after President Trump revealed that the US-Iran deal was in its final stagesBoth the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones are taking a fast-speed route to new recordsExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Stock markets are surging today after President Trump announced that the United States and Iran are close to finishing intense diplomatic talks.After several days of uncertainty, this breakthrough is giving a strong boost to global risk assets. The threat of war and worries about energy supplies are fading quickly, letting investors regain confidence in the markets.This major diplomatic shift is having a big impact on the energy sector. WTI Crude oil prices fell quickly on the news, dropping to around $97 before recovering a bit as traders adjusted their risk expectations. Oil 1H Chart (13:38) May 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Lower energy costs are allowing for the pricing of a quick boost in the economy, or at least some relief. Since oil has been the main reason for recent inflation worries, this drop is letting US Treasury yields fall for the first time in a week, with the 10 Year bond dropping below 4.60% for the first time since last Friday. As long-term yields go down, inflation concerns ease, which helps companies with a lot of debt and growth stocks and overall boosts investor sentiment. Daily Market Performance (13:33). May 20, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz As a result, major US indices are rising sharply. Both the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are up more than 1% and moving toward new record highs.Another reason for the strong stock rally is that the Warsh Trade is pausing as traders pay attention to the latest news.The recent shift toward higher interest rate expectations, which hurt investor sentiment last week, is now on hold as traders wait for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's swearing-in on Friday. For now, the positive news about a possible Middle East peace deal is the main focus.Let's take a look at current reaction by looking into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:The Warsh Trade is taking Markets by the horn – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateNVIDIA (NVDA) Technical: Potential mean reversion decline below 236.54 as earnings loomAsia open: Surging 30-year bond yield flirts with 5.20% as market eyes Nvidia and Bank of England dilemmaCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (13:33) – Source: TradingView – May 20, 2026 While the Stock Market picture isn't yet green throughout the Market, Semiconductors are quickly rebounding back towards its prior week highs, and this move is spreading to Finance, Healthcare and the recently struggling Producer Manufacturing.Only the Energy minerals are fully down on the session.Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – May 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA is bullying right back towards 50,000 as we speak, pushed by the renewed boost in sentiment.Industrial and traditional equities get a double advantage to lower Oil prices, for manufacturing costs and lower yields – Firms represented by the Dow tend to often make high use of leverage, hence the higher yields were also putting pressure on the Index.Trying to break the 50,000 resistance, bulls will want to see a close in either today or tomorrow's session to add higher chances of a continuation back towards the preceding all-time highs (50,500).Failing to do so indicates more doubts and rangebound action ahead, but the odds for such a scenario seem lower.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 Highs (testing the breakout)ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500All-Time Highs 50,544Support LevelsMajor Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (range lows)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (mid-term bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – May 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq officially broke its pullback bear channel, and after having retested its upper bound, the Index is solidly back above 29,000 and on path to retest its prior record highs.The action is somewhat stalling around the 29,250 pivot area (+/- 75 pts).Closing above the pivot zone will assist bulls towards a new ATHOn the other hand, failing to do may impose a correctionNasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels29,250 consolidation and momentum pivot29,218 2H 50-period MA29,500 - 29,600 current resistance (ATH)Support Levels28,500 Minor support28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)27,500 micro-supportPrior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300S&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – May 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 rallied right back into its main channel, but it is also currently struggling at its 7,450 major resistance.Breaching above it before the end of the week should help the index to shoot back to a new record high.Failing to push above however would add to the chances of a larger pullback (~7,200)S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels7,430 - 7,450 Intraday Resistance7,525 Daily ATH ResistanceSupport Levels7,320 to 7,340 Past week retracement (and Channel lows)Pivotal Support 7,250 to 7,260Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Surging global bond yields intensified pressure on equity markets as the US 30-year Treasury yield approached the critical 5.20% level, reinforcing fears that the Federal Reserve may shift toward future rate hikes instead of cuts.Markets are highly focused on NVIDIA earnings, with options markets implying a massive post-results valuation swing that could determine the near-term direction of AI-related equities and the broader Nasdaq 100.Asia-Pacific markets are mixed due to rising yields and currency stress in today's Asia opening session.Chart of the day: Gold (XAU/USD) bearish breakdown from 1-month range, eyeing next intermediate supports at $4,415 and $4,319.Top macro headlines Inflation worries fuel massive global bond sell-off: Wall Street fell on Tuesday for the third consecutive session as intensifying inflation panic pushed long-dated U.S. bond yields to their highest levels since 2007. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is flirting with the critical 5.20% threshold.Fed rate hike pressures intensify: The massive bond rout reflects a structural shift in monetary policy expectations. U.S. futures are now indicating a greater than 50% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this year, effectively eliminating previous hopes for a rate cut.Bessent outlines hardline Iran stance: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on global allies to forcefully disrupt Iran's financing networks. He announced a comprehensive review of the U.S. sanctions list to make it easier for financial institutions to root out sophisticated terrorist financing schemes. Concurrently, oil markets saw a brief reprieve after J.D. Vance cited progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks, leading President Trump to hold off on a scheduled attack.Japan cranks up FX Intervention warnings: With the Japanese Yen sliding through 159 per USD toward the critical 160 level, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama delivered a harsh warning at the G7 meeting in Paris, stating that Tokyo is fully prepared to step back in to defend the currency.Nvidia earnings loom amid options-driven Swings: Markets are bracing for Nvidia’s highly anticipated quarterly earnings report on Wednesday. Options data indicate that the chipmaker is set for a staggering $350 billion market cap price swing following the release.Key macro themes The sovereign yield storm vs. tech valuations: Soaring bond yields are driving up discount rates, directly threatening the present value of future earnings for high-growth tech firms. This yield breakout comes at an incredibly vulnerable moment, as hyperscalers take on record debt to fund an estimated $700 billion in AI capital expenditure this year.Central Bank "rock and a hard place" scenarios: Multi-year macro shocks are pushing central banks into intense policy trade-offs. For example, the brutal UK labor data, showing a 100,000 drop in April payrolls, directly conflicts with Wednesday's impending hot inflation data, leaving the Bank of England with a choice between supporting growth and containing prices.Diminishing returns on FX Intervention: Sources suggest Japan has already deployed roughly 10 trillion yen since late April to defend its currency. The yen's quick relapse to 159 per USD underscores that massive intervention capital is failing to buy central banks' sustainable breathing room against the widening U.S. yield advantage.Global market impact Equities: Wall Street pulled back, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones dropping 0.7% and the Nasdaq falling 0.8% [cite: 2]. Decliners were led by communication services, consumer discretionary, and materials (-1.3% to -2.3%).Sovereign debt markets faced a violent sell-off [cite: 2, 4]. The long end of the curve buckled under inflation fears, sending the 30-year U.S. yield flirting with 5.20%, its highest point since 2007.FX: The US Dollar Index remained dominant. The Japanese yen slipped past 159 per USD to print an intraday high of 159.25 on Tuesday, 19 May, entering the acute intervention danger zone. India's Rupee slumped further, printing a record closing low for the sixth consecutive session to hit a record low of 96.52 per USD in today’s Asia opening session.Commodities: WTI and Brent crude oil remained firm in the past 24 hours, recording gains of 1% on Tuesday, 19 May. Non-yielding precious metals plunged on yield pressures, with spot gold dropping 1.8% and silver cratering 5%Asia Pacific impact Regional equity bloodbath except Singapore: Asia-Pacific stock markets absorbed severe shocks. South Korea's KOSPI suffered a brutal 3.3% sell-off on Tuesday, 19 May, leading regional losses as the tech-heavy gauge reacted to rising risk-free rates and structural hardware supply-chain vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, Singapore’s Straits Times Index (STI) bucked the trend, surged by 1.5% to a new record high, supported by defensive dividend stocks. However, rising bond yields trigger profit-taking today, STI dropped by 0.7% at the open with steep losses seen in the Nikkei 225 (-1.2%), ASX 200 (-0.8%), and Hang Seng Index (-0.6%). Meanwhile, KOSPI traded almost unchanged, and China A50 rose by 0.2%.Currency degradation and intervention tensions: The broad surge in the greenback and global yields forced intense pressure onto regional currencies. The multi-day record lows for the Indian Rupee and the yen's collapse past 159 per USD are stoking severe cross-border capital flight risks.Top 3 events to watch today UK CPI & PPI (Apr) - 2.00 pm SGT Impact: GBP/USD, GBP crosses, FTSE 100, UK giltsFOMC Minutes - 2.00 am SGT Impact: All asset classesNvidia Q1 Earnings Release - after close of US session Impact: Nvidia share, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, semiconductor, and AI-related stocksChart of the day - Gold bearish breakdown from 1-month range support Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 20 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Gold (XAU/USD) has staged a bearish breakdown from its former one-month range support at $4,486. In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to exhibit bearish momentum conditions below the 50 level.Watch the $4,580 key short-term pivotal resistance to maintain the minor bearish trend for the next intermediate supports to come in at $4,415 and $4,319 (also close to the key 200-day moving average).However, a clearance and an hourly close above $4,580 negates the bearish tone for a potential corrective rebound to retest the next intermediate resistances at $4,645, and $4,715 (also the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Silver, Gold, and other Metals completely faked out to the upside in the past week and are now suffering from their weak topsLong yields are exploding, and this adds further pressure to the non-yielding precious commoditiesIntraday timeframe analysis for XAG/USD and XAU/USD Precious metals surged higher last week, only to quickly reverse and drop due to weak price levels. It looked like metals were gaining control, with strong rallies reaching new two-month highs. But this momentum turned out to be a classic bull trap.The main reason for this big reversal is the fast rise of the Warsh Trade. After Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, markets quickly adjusted for a major tightening of monetary policy. This change led to a strong, lasting increase in the US Dollar and a sharp drop in bond prices.As a result, long-term treasury yields are rising quickly. This big jump in yields makes interest-bearing assets much more appealing to large investors. Because gold and silver do not pay interest, they are under heavy pressure Silver vs WTI Crude Inverse Correlation – Source: TradingView. May 19, 2026 Why hold a zero-yield metal when government paper is offering increasingly rising risk-free returns?Looking ahead, if the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape remains frustratingly cloudy and deadlocked, Gold may still see occasional safe-haven demand to cushion its downside. However, higher-beta, industrial-leaning alternatives like Copper and Silver may continue struggling under the sheer weight of a surging US Dollar and restrictive financial conditions. Crucial, trend-defining price action is rapidly approaching for the entire asset class. Daily Market Performance (14:22). May 19, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Let's explore the recent shifts in an intraday timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to identify where are the key levels to watch for the action ahead. Read More:The Warsh Trade and the US Dollar – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overviewIs the Stock Markets rally over? – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday LevelsAsia open: Bond yield breakout threatens tech rallyGold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart and levels Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, May 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView Gold is rejecting its resistance and now struggling at the $4,500 support – With the descending RSI, the odds are towards a support break.Any break back above $4,600 on momentum would undo the bearish outlook.Intraday Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):Resistance Levels:Daily Momentum Pivot $4,650 - $4,700$4,850 to $4,900 Major Resistance (bullish above)$5,100 Pivotal Resistance$5,400 mini-resistanceSupport Levels:December 2025 Support $4,500 to $4,550 (Testing, bearish below)Pivotal Support $4,325 – $4,400Main Channel Lows Support $4,100Next Support $3,880 to $4,000Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart and levels Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart, May 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView Silver completely erased its past week's progress and back right within its longer-run $70 to $84 range.Buyers are weakly stepping in at the $74 support, but with the descending RSI and weak candles, odds for a break lower are high.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):Resistance Levels:Pivot $79 to $80Major Resistance $83 to $84.50 Key Range Resistance $90 to $92$96.47 March highs (higher odds of All-time highs if break above)Current Record $121.67Support Levels:Micro support $74 - $76$70 - $71.50 April Support (Bearish below)December FOMC Minor Support $64 to $66$61.10 Past Session lows$50 to $55 October Resistance now Major SupportSilver's 2011 All-time highs $49.81 Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

After their ceaseless rally, Semiconductors and Mag 7s are pulling back, imposing a stop in Stock Markets euphoriaFeeling the pressure of the spike in yields, the Warsh Trade could prove more dangerous for overextended Tech-heavy Stock MarketsExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Stock markets have surged since the peak of the US-Iran conflict, but this strong trend is finally starting to slow down. After weeks of pushing the market higher, semiconductor giants and the Magnificent 7 are now pulling back, putting a sudden stop to the recent Wall Street excitement.Geopolitical tensions are still unresolved, and the market's optimism is fading. Even though yesterday saw a big relief rally after news broke that planned US military attacks on Iran were halted, investors could not keep up the positive momentum today. The lack of immediate conflict is no longer enough to hide changing economic conditions, and particularly when it comes to Fed expectations.Now, stocks are under pressure from a sharp rise in bond yields. The new Warsh Trade is especially risky for tech-heavy sectors that have grown too quickly. With Kevin Warsh confirmed to become the next Federal Reserve Chairman and likely to reduce the central bank's balance sheet, less liquidity is causing investors to rethink the current extreme pricing of high-growth assets – We will learn more on his views this Friday, date he will be sworn in.As a result, the strong upward trend that has kept the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rising since early April is now breaking down – But for now, the correction remains quite contained.With the main drivers of the rally now leading the decline, traders are left wondering if the big peace rally has come to an end. Daily Market Performance (11:02). May 19, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Breaking News: The US President mentioned that he could potentially lean back into attacks on Iran! Make sure to track the latest narrative on the conflict throughout the week.Let's get ready for a potentially rocky action ahead by diving into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:The Warsh Trade and the US Dollar – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overviewAsia open: Bond yield breakout threatens tech rallyThe Kevin Warsh repricing and Inflation points – Markets Weekly OutlookCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:05) – Source: TradingView – May 19, 2026 As you can see, the Stock Market split continues, with ongoing rebalancing and profit-taking from Semiconductors, Tech, and Magnificent 7s, leading the pullback in Nasdaq and S&P 500 while Healthcare remains the most bid sector, helping the DJIA to resist the selloff with more tenacity than its peers.Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – May 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView After the latest trump comments, the action in Stocks showed a quick wick to the downside but bulls quickly re-entered to fade the move, but a selling wave its making its quick re-apparition.TACO or not, the threat remains a large one for Stock Markets, particularly traditional sectors, hence it will be important to keep track of the latest War narratives to see if these are only words or the prelude to something much worse.Still, the Dow Jones maintains its solid range between 49,000 and 49,900, largely resilient to the outflows seen in other indexes. Keep a close eye on the two range bounds for potential breakouts (with stop orders being a potentially interesting way to enter any buying/selling wave).Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels2H 200-MA (49,500)49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 Highs (range top)ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500All-Time Highs 50,544Support LevelsMajor Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (range lows)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (mid-term bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – May 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is now embarking into a more significant pullback, forming a bear channel in its latest action.Still, the pullback technically looks healthy for now, so Bulls will want to watch reactions at the 28,500 support.Any break of that support however could open the way for a larger correction (~26,300, past ATH) particularly if the mood sours until then.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels28,900 mini intraday resistance29,250 consolidation and momentum pivot29,218 2H 50-period MA29,500 - 29,600 current resistance (ATH)Support Levels28,500 Minor support28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)27,500 micro-supportPrior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300S&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – May 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView After the past week's fake-out above the key bull channel, the S&P 500 is breaking to the downside.Buyers are stepping in right at the past week's support and attempting a push, but the action still looks quite unsure around current levels.To get a better idea of where to look next, traders will want to see:A bullish impulse and 4H close above 7,380 for the bulls to retake the channelFor bears, either a rejection of the support (break below 7,320) or a break-retest of the channel (hence a rejection of 7,370)S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels7,400 Channel Pivot (Short-term bearish below)7,430 - 7,450 Intraday Resistance7,525 Daily ATH ResistanceSupport Levels7,320 to 7,340 Past week retracement (and Channel lows)Pivotal Support 7,250 to 7,260Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. 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