Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 2Today marked another start to December trading, with Equities particularly relating to tech, and Cryptocurrencies leading Market performance and dragging sentiment to a more positive note.These two were subject to considerable rejection since mid-October as flows turned to risk-on yet more defensive, lower beta assets. This notably helped the Dow Jones to reach new records during the global risk-deleveraging last month.Now, Bitcoin rallied sharply back above $90,000 and Nasdaq is the best performer out of the three US Major Indexes – So, are things back like they were?Not entirely – Some bellwether stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) are still lagging, Meta has corrected substantially and the overall sentiment around the Tech-Semiconductor sectors remains one of caution.A bubble never pops when everyone expects it.Elsewhere, US President Trump made hints of National Economic Council Secretary Kevin Hassett being his favorite candidate for the Fed Chair.He will still be required to get voted in throughout the beginning of 2026 by the Senate. Read More:Silver (XAG/USD) is the sole performer, heading toward a new ATHCrypto recovery: Dead Cat Bounce or the start of a Buy-the-Dip?Dow Jones (DJIA) Outlook: Could the Christmas Spirit awaken?Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin really stole the show in today's session – You can see how risk-assets dominated today's session (excluding Oil, victim of its own dynamics).Gold has got rejected particularly harshly so this will be a development to follow in upcoming days.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, December 2 – Source: OANDA Labs Today's risk-on session spreaded to Currency Markets, serving the Antipodean currencies pretty well. On the other hand, the Yen dropped by similar margin to which it had appreciated yesterday.FX movement is still relatively subdued. Markets are hanging around their current levels in the waiting of Friday's US Core PCE release and even more importantly, next Wednesday's FOMC meeting.Expect some rangebound action all around in the meantime. And of course, never underestimate the releases until then.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The session is not over yet for AUD traders, who have the most significant domestic data release of the quarter on deck.The evening session will turn the eyes towards Australian GDP (Q3) at 19:30 ET. Growth is expected to tick up to 0.7% QoQ. A strong print here is essential to maintain the RBA's hawkish-hold stance; a miss could quickly price in earlier rate cuts. This is followed by China's Services PMI at 20:45 ET, providing a health check on the region's largest trading partner.Tomorrow's session (Wednesday) is packed with central bank rhetoric and critical US service-sector data.The early European session features final PMI readings and PPI data, but the real focus will be on the ECB. President Lagarde speaks twice (08:30 & 10:30 A.M. ET), flanked by Chief Economist Lane. The North American Session will likely drive the most volatility: The day starts with a potential shocker: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (08:15 A.M. ET). The consensus is set at a small +5K (down from 42K), which would signal a stall in private hiring just before the official NFP release and corroborate the weekly ADP readings.However, the main event is the ISM Services PMI at 10:00 A.M. ET. As the largest sector of the US economy, a reading near the consensus of 52.1 is expected. Traders should watch the Prices Paid index (previous 70) to see if service-sector inflation remains sticky.The evening wraps up with AUD Trade Balance (19:30 ET), keeping the Aussie dollar in play. Safe Trades and a successful December!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Our preceding analysis on Silver could not have been more wrong.With the FOMC approaching and bouts of up-and-down action across all metals, what we thought to be a temporary top leading to a potential range was, in fact, just a retracement. And that retracement was an opportunity not lost on Silver traders: a stark run during month-end trading took the precious metal to new record highs, grazing the $58.85 level.The dovish repricing for the Fed's December 10 Meeting—main catalyst of the renewed "everything-rally" (or Debasement Trade) seen throughout stocks in the past week—was fuel for a sharp rally across the entire metals complex. zoom_out_map Metals performance since November 2025 – Source: TradingView However, a distinct divergence has emerged in today's session. Gold, Platinum, and Copper have all rejected their recent highs established on Friday, correcting lower as traders book profits. It is a different story for Silver, which is showing remarkable relative strength, hanging less than 1% below its $58.85 record and running towards its retest.Will it keep rallying or is the move finally over? Let's dive into the charts to see if this breakout has legs. Read More:Crypto recovery: Dead Cat Bounce or the start of a Buy-the-Dip?Can Platinum catch up to Gold? Platinum (XPT/USD) Price ForecastThe US Dollar is lost in translation – Dollar Index (DXY) OutlookSilver (XAG/USD) Multi-timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map Silver Daily Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView The month-end action took Silver prices to a strong breakout after a month-and-half consolidation.A double top did form throughout the two tests of the preceding $55.00 record, however, double top doesn't mean instant bear market.On the other hand, it may have acted as a contrarian-fuel for higher prices as bearish positions accumulated before the month-end rally changed the plans.Back to current trading, bulls have brought the metal right back into its $58.00 to $60 Resistance Zone, precedingly obtained with Fibonacci Extensions (see explanation here).With the zone extending over a $2 range, there is space for trading but what traders should look is whether prices break and close above $60 on a daily session or if prices actually close below $58, indicating some rejection.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Silver 4H Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView The price action is getting tricky as buyer strength stands strong and prices are consolidating at the highs (typically bullish) but a 4H divergence is appearing.Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:Resistance Levels:Fibonacci-Extension Resistance $58.00 to $60December 1 All-Time Highs $56.85$53.50 to $54 current ATH resistancePotential resistance $62 to $65 (1.618 from Impulsive Move)Support Levels:$53.50 to $54 Previous ATH resistance now PivotMini-support $52.00 to $52.50$48.50 to $49.50 2011 High SupportOctober FOMC bottom $46.00 to $47.00$45.55 October 28 lows1H Chart zoom_out_map Silver 1H Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView The rangebound action is occuring much higher than last week – As higher momentum charts stand in overbought territory, short-term consolidation at the highs serve to reduce effect of overbought trading.An ongoing move might take on the record highs reached yesterday – For intraday analysis look at the 1H 50-period Moving Average, frequently used by buyers in this uptrend.Holding it provides entry points to join the rally, while breaking the Moving Averages gives signal of a short-term bearish reversal.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Cryptocurrencies are finally bouncing from their relative lows, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $90,000 level after bottoming near $80,500 on Friday, November 21.Traders are scared, and for good reason: elevated valuations and an ecstatic mood in early autumn had led to extreme positioning, which consequently triggered a cascade of liquidations and stops. The first major crack appeared shortly after Bitcoin reached its new record at $126,400 in mid-October, where a dark weekly closure led to a gigantic flash-crash. After that, the recovery was swift but proved temporary, materializing into a consistent, progressive selloff that dragged on all the way to the final week of November.Low volumes are now the norm in this scarred market, but with selling flows largely reducing, some bottoms may have finally formed. The question remains: Are the recent lows dips to buy or traps to avoid? zoom_out_map Current Session in Cryptos – Green throughout but some mid-day profit-taking – December 2, 2025 (12:01). Source: FInviz As mentioned in one of our previous crypto-selloff analyses, the answer depends entirely on your investment horizon and risk appetite. If you seek ideas on how to invest progressively without trying to catch a falling knife, I invite you to check this piece out.Market sentiment is still weak, but the daily session is a strong one. Ethereum is now hanging around $3,000 again, and Bitcoin is holding $90,000, recovering even after a terrible monthly open yesterday caused by MicroStrategy investor panic—likely fueled by fears over its collapsing premium and leverage sustainability.Let's access a few intraday charts and levels for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana so you can decide whether this is an opportunity or not.The Total Market Cap slowly recovers zoom_out_map Crypto Total Market Cap. December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin 8H Chart zoom_out_map Bitcoin (BTC) 8H Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin is still evolving within its descending channel but is bouncing from its lows, inducing some dip-buying recovery activity.Closing above the higher bound of the Pivot Zone ($92,000) would point to a test of the Channel's higher bound around $98,000.For a higher timeframe bull-momentum restart, a weekly close above $100,000 will be required.Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels:$90,000 to 93,000 major support turned PivotCurrent Weekly Lows $89,340$85,000 mid-term Support (+/- $1,500)$75,000 Key long-term supportResistance Levels:$90,000 to 93,000 major support turned Pivot$98,000 to $100,000 Main Support, now Pivot (MA 50 at $100,000)$102,000 Bear Channel HighsResistance at previous ATH $106,000 to $108,000Current ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000Ethereum 8H Chart zoom_out_map Ethereum (ETH) 8H Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Ethereum still has trouble to close above the $3,000 mark but is forming some better looking price action:The recent buying is occurring at the mid-line of the October descending channel, prompting more odds of a bullish breakout.Similarly as Bitcoin however, a close above its $3,000 to $3,200 Pivot will be required to allow for a return to a bullish mid-term bias in ETH.Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:$2,500 to $2,700 June Key Support (recent rebound)$2,620 Session and weekly Lows$2,100 June War support$1,385 to $1,750 2025 Support2025 Lows $1,384Resistance Levels:$3,000 to $3,200 Major momentum Pivot (Test of the $3,000)$3,500 (+/- $50) Resistance and Descending Channel highs$3,800 September lows$4,000 to Dec 2024 top Higher timeframe Resistance zone$4,950 Current new All-time highsSolana 8H Chart zoom_out_map Solana (SOL) 8H Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView The story repeats for Solana, but the harshly-rejected crypto is showing signs of life, breaking its past week's descending price action and testing the $140 level.Track how it performs within its descending channel: The $160 to $170 resistance level will be the hurdle to breach to relaunch bullish prospects for the third largest crypto.Levels to keep on your SOL Charts:Support Levels:Main Support $125 to $130 (Recent bounce)$110 to $115 SupportWeekly lows $123Support 3: $100 to $105Resistance Levels:$140 to $150 Major Pivot (testing)Channel highs and October Pivot resistance $165 to $170$180 to $190 ResistancePsychological level $200 to $205$253 Cycle highs Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Stocks Largely Flat Most Read: The Bank of Japan's FX Intervention: Mechanism, Impact, and Historical PrecedentAsian stock markets bounced back after a selloff on Monday, which was led by sharp drops in risky assets worldwide, including cryptocurrencies.The main MSCI regional stock index climbed as much as 0.5% before pulling back slightly. Markets that rely heavily on technology, such as South Korea and Taiwan, performed well.However, Japan's Nikkei stock index ended Tuesday virtually flat, trading quietly after a 1.9% tumble on Monday that pushed it below the key 50,000 level. The biggest positive mover for the Nikkei index on Tuesday was Fast Retailing (the owner of Uniqlo), whose 1.8% rise contributed significantly to the index's value due to its large size. Conversely, the biggest drag on the Nikkei was the startup investor SoftBank Group, a major local beneficiary of the AI boom, which tumbled 5.2%.Overall, the Nikkei was almost evenly split, with 112 stocks rising and 111 falling.The broader Topix index also added a negligible amount, less than 0.1%, recovering slightly from its 1.2% slide the day before.Euro Area Inflation Edges Higher Inflation in the Euro area rose slightly in November 2025, hitting 2.2%, up from 2.1% in October, and slightly higher than experts expected.The price increases for services sped up to 3.5%, the highest rate since April, and energy prices fell more slowly than before. Prices for factory-made goods and for food, alcohol, and tobacco remained unchanged. When you strip out the volatile items like energy and food (Core Inflation), the rate held steady at 2.4%.Among the biggest European economies, Germany’s inflation rate jumped to 2.6%, the highest it has been since February and now above the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target. In contrast, inflation slowed down slightly in Spain (to 3.1%) and dropped more significantly in the Netherlands (to 2.6%).Meanwhile, inflation in both France (0.8%) and Italy (1.1%) remained well below the ECB's target.European Session - European Stocks Eye Recovery European stock markets experienced a drop on Tuesday, continuing the minor declines from the previous day. The main European index, the STOXX 600, was down 0.1%.However, major country stock exchanges like those in Germany and France were both up slightly, gaining about 0.1% each. Healthcare stocks were the biggest reason for the overall decline, falling 0.3% due to losses in large companies like AstraZeneca and Novo Nordisk.Despite this, the sector's losses were contained because the German pharmaceutical firm Bayer surged by about 15%. This jump happened after the U.S. government, led by President Donald Trump's administration, encouraged the Supreme Court to hear Bayer's appeal to stop thousands of lawsuits related to its Roundup weed-killer supposedly causing cancer.Meanwhile, other sectors like consumer discretionary stocks (including luxury goods and car companies) also traded lower. In other news, the market is monitoring a scheduled meeting between President Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and his son-in-law Jared Kushner with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a potential ceasefire in Ukraine.Among individual stocks, FDJ United shares fell 4.2% after J.P. Morgan lowered its rating on the lottery and online game operator. Finally, investors are now looking ahead to the release of preliminary inflation data for the euro zone later today.On the FX front, the US dollar remained steady on Tuesday, helped by a successful sale of Japanese government debt that reassured investors after a selloff in bonds globally earlier in the week. The dollar went up 0.1% against the Japanese yen, reaching 155.72, after a strong auction of 10-year Japanese government bonds stabilized the bond market.The overall US dollar index, which measures its strength against other major currencies, saw minor ups and downs but was last trading slightly higher at 99.441, ending a seven-day losing streak.The euro was holding steady at $1.1610 as peace talks regarding the war in Ukraine continued; European leaders showed strong support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, particularly after a previous US-supported peace plan seemed to favor Russia, while a US special envoy traveled to Moscow for more discussions.The British pound was 0.1% stronger at $1.3217, remaining near its highest level in a month, despite the head of Britain's fiscal watchdog resigning after his agency accidentally released details of the government's budget before the Finance Minister announced them.Finally, the Australian dollar gained 0.2% to 0.6553, and the New Zealand dollar (kiwi) was steady at 0.57264.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices remained mostly stable on Tuesday. Traders were assessing two main risks: the first was the ongoing threat from Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy facilities, and the second was the increasing tension between the US and Venezuela.Specifically, Brent crude futures dipped slightly by 19 cents (0.3%) to trade at 62.98 a barrel.The current price of spot gold dropped by 0.9% to $4,191.79/oz.This decline was primarily driven by two factors: the first was the increase in US Treasury yields, which makes holding gold (which does not provide interest) less appealing to investors; and the second was profit-taking by traders who decided to sell their gold after the price had reached a six-week high in the previous trading session.Read More:The US Dollar is lost in translation – Dollar Index (DXY) OutlookSilver (XAG/USD) Price Outlook: Failed Breakout and Double-Top hints at Rangebound actionOil falls below $58 as Ukraine agrees to 19-point Peace PlanEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session will be quiet today with a lack of high impact data releases.The US session will also be a quiet one with very little in terms of data.For more information on the week ahead, read The Week Ahead of the December FOMC – Markets Weekly Outlook zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has held above the 100-day MA since Thursday afternoon.This could be seen as a sign of bullish momentum with a potential breakout coming soon.However, the longer price remains rangebound, this will increase investor angst and a potential pullback may materialize.For now though, a bullish move appears more favorable as markets enter the final month of 2025.Immediate support rests at 9686, 9661 and 9646 respectively.A move higher may encounter some resistance at 9750, 9800 and 9850.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, December 2, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 1The new month of trading begins with quite some violent mean-reversion across asset classes.US Stocks opened much lower compared to their strong Friday close before rebounding sharply and rejecting new highs again, in a session marked by indecision. Cryptos continued to sell off amid the MicroStrategy (MSTR) "funding catastrophe" narrative—fueled by fears of index exclusion and a potential "death spiral" for its leverage-heavy model—along with general deleveraging across the sector. The US Dollar led currency markets to some wild swings, opening sharply lower before taking on a V-shape recovery to trade near flat by the afternoon. zoom_out_map Bitcoin 1H Chart, December 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView US Politics made the headlines again, with announcements regarding operations against Venezuela awaited at the top of the hour, following high-level meetings between President Trump and his top aides.US President Trump was also in the middle of the news. The White House confirmed his health exam was perfect amid some concerns. Meanwhile, headlines seemed to try to sink some more pessimistic plans against his precious tariffs: Costco and other major retailers have joined lawsuits to sue the Trump administration for refunds if the tariffs are struck down by the Supreme Court. It seems that the White House is already preparing for a potential defeat in court, with aides reportedly drafting a "Plan B" to maintain economic pressure.Geopolitics might make their re-emergence in headlines after months of lesser appearance amid no new developments – French President Macron and Ukraine's Zelenskyy appeared in France today in a stand of force, discussing revisions to the peace plan to pressure Russia into a ceasefire.Markets are just getting started for December trading and it will be quite an intense ride. Expect a volatile, compact month of action full of ups and downs, before and after the December 10 FOMC, as traders start to take their Year-end holidays. Read More:The US Dollar is lost in translation – Dollar Index (DXY) OutlookUS Stocks stumble: Markets catch a cold to start DecemberThe Week Ahead of the December FOMC – Markets Weekly OutlookCross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView Assets at the extreme of the risk-spectrum were getting sold off quite aggressively throughout the overnight and morning session, however some mean-reversion largely helped the outflows.Keep an eye on metals this week as Silver is catching all the attention yet again, going parabolic in today's session.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, December 1 – Source: OANDA Labs JPY took the markets by surprise in today's trading after a hawkish turn from Bank of Japan's Ueda yesterday evening.Other FX currencies were taking it chill before the US dollar ruined the party. A V-shape rebound in the Greenback (look at the Green line around 13:00) confirmed a potential USD range, which may have interesting implications all the way to the FOMC (check out our recent USD analysis!)A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The evening session will turn the eyes towards Fed Chair Powell's speech at 20:00 ET. No comments regarding the December 10 meeting should be published as the Fed is still in its Blackout Period (no comments on Monetary policy allowed by its members). AUD traders will also have to monitor the Building Permits (19:30 ET) release just before.Tomorrow's session (December 2) brings the spotlight back to Europe with high-stakes inflation data. The early birds will assist to the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) at 05:00 A.M. ET. This is the critical inflation gauge for the ECB; with the Core YoY expected to tick up to 2.5%.The US Session should be quieter on the data front, but policy remains in focus. While there are no top-tier data releases, Fed's Bowman is scheduled to speak at 10:00 A.M. ET, offering further clues on the Fed's stance following Powell's overnight comments.The evening will however be the most important:Australian GDP data will heat up the evening session at 19:30 ET. Growth is expected to pick up slightly (0.7% QoQ), but any miss here would weigh heavily on the Aussie Dollar. This is followed by China's Services PMI at 20:45 ET, rounding out a heavy APAC session.Safe Trades and a successful December!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Catalysts for movements in the US Dollar have been confusing all types of Market Participants. Reaching new cycle highs during the longest ever US Government shutdown (43 days), the Greenback consequently fell as the government reopened, driven by dovish hopes for the December 10 FOMC meeting. Current yo-yos in the dollar are leaving traders in question.All of this comes after a massive downtrend throughout the first half of the year due to tariffs and unpredictable policies from Donald Trump, requiring dollar-diversification from many economic and political parties around the world. Dollar funding is also not at its best levels, with Reverse Repo (RRP) facilities (Bank Reserves at the Fed) at the lowest levels in years, a liquidity drain that is provoking significantly more volatile movements in the USD.The pricing for the FOMC meeting, the last one of the year occurring in 10 days, peaked Friday very close to 90% and has now backed down to 85% amidst a lack of fresh data to influence pricing. Friday's Core PCE report may affect the entire pricing. zoom_out_map Rate Cut Pricing for the December 10 FOMC Meeting, December 1, 2025 – Source: CMEGroup At its session lows, the Dollar Index was down almost 1.50% from its past week highs but has been subject to a V-shape rebound today. The latest story? The White House could be preparing for a defeat regarding tariffs—potentially linked to recent court challenges blocking IEEPA-based levies—bringing natural mean-reversion flows to the dollar after quite a brutal weekly open.Let's dive into Dollar Index charts as the USD makes its way back to being the second best performer of the FX session to start December. Read More:US Stocks stumble: Markets catch a cold to start DecemberMarkets Today: Silver Hits $58/oz, Gold Soars to $4250/oz, China PMI at 4-Month Lows. Geopolitics and US PMI in FocusThe Week Ahead of the December FOMC – Markets Weekly OutlookDollar Index (DXY) Multi-timeframe OutlookDaily Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, December 1 2025 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar has seen some violent up and down swings in November after a flawless ascent.After forming a bottom at the September FOMC (highlighted in a preceding USD analysis), the Greenback gained back a lot of traction and peaked at 100.376 on November 20.Having double topped at this point but also double bottomed after today's rebound, confusing reversals point towards a large trading range between 99.00 and 100.00.Some banks are expressing concerns regarding the low levels of Reserves and with the confusion regarding the future path of Fed Cuts, a much lower correction is being prevented.Individual currencies are also subject to their own dynamics like the Yen (JPY) retaking some ground after BoJ Governor Ueda's comments, in between much else.To spot how sharp the reversals are, let's take a closer look to intraday timeframes.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart, December 1 2025 – Source: TradingView You can spot further details on the V-shaped action in the US Dollar today which also corresponded to a test of oversold RSI levels.The more rangebound a price action will be, the more it will respond to extreme conditions in RSI or other momentum indicators.The recent low rebound points to immediate USD strength but it will face some hurdles which we will see on the 1H timeframe.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance zone100.376 November highs99.80 mini-resistance99.40 to 99.50 Key Pivot (Immediate Test)Support LevelsHigher timeframe Pivot 98.80 to 99.00 (Daily Rebound and range lows)Past week lows and double bottom 99.03Mini-support 98.50 and 200-Day MAMain support 98.001H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart, December 1 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dollar Index is forming an hourly descending Channel which served as support for the Daily rebound.Now testing the Key Pivot (99.40 to 99.50), it will be interesting to see if the reversal higher extends to confirm the Range – Keep an eye on the 50-Hour MA (at 99.47)For this, dollar bulls will also have to break out of the hourly channel.If they do, the range is confirmed. Rejecting the highs of the channel would on the other hand maintain the downward momentum.It will be interesting to keep an eye on changes to the pricing for the FOMC meeting.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Markets Show Signs of Risk Aversion Most Read: The Bank of Japan's FX Intervention: Mechanism, Impact, and Historical PrecedentMarkets showed caution around the world on Monday, as investors prepare for a busy week of new economic data. US stock futures and cryptocurrencies both declined, suggesting investors were avoiding risk, even though most still expect the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December.In Japan, the Nikkei stock index fell sharply, dropping 1.68% after four straight days of gains. This decline was triggered by two factors: rising Japanese government bond yields and a strengthening yen. Both of these changes were fueled by comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, which increased speculation that the central bank might raise interest rates as soon as this month. Because of this speculation, banks saw their shares rise significantly, including Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (+2.75%) and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (+2.33%).Conversely, most other sectors declined. The technology sector was hit hard, with chip-testing equipment maker Advantest and Uniqlo owner Fast Retailing both losing ground. Optic fibre cable maker Fujikura was the biggest loser on the Nikkei, plummeting 8.58%. The energy sector was the worst-performing overall.China Manufacturing PMI at 4-Month Lows The latest survey of China's factory sector showed a minor slowdown in November 2025. The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9, down from 50.6 the month before, and was slightly weaker than analysts had predicted.Because the figure fell just below the 50-point mark, it signals a slight contraction (or drop) in factory activity. Overall production and the level of new orders remained mostly flat. Factories also reduced their workforce again (renewed job cuts) and purchased fewer materials. However, there was a bright spot: new orders from foreign customers grew at the fastest pace in eight months thanks to business efforts to expand. Suppliers also delivered materials quicker due to lower factory purchases and better communication.Regarding prices, the cost of raw materials continued to increase, mostly driven by higher metal prices, though the rate of this inflation slowed down. Meanwhile, the prices that factories charge for their finished goods actually fell due to strong competition. Looking ahead, companies were more optimistic about the future, encouraged by new government policies, expansion plans, and the launch of new products.European Session - European Stocks Slide European stocks fell on Monday, losing ground after a strong month in November. Investors became more cautious, leading to a wave of "risk aversion" across the markets.The main European index, the STOXX 600, dropped 0.4%. Key national markets in Germany and France saw similar declines of 0.5%. Following a solid run in November, which had calmed fears about a potential bubble in Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks, traders are now looking for new reasons to buy. The main focus this week will be on new economic reports and early signs of how much people spent over the Black Friday and Cyber Monday holiday shopping period.The biggest reason for the overall market slump was the industrial sector, which dropped by 1.3%. This slide was mainly due to two areas: Airbus and defence stocks. Planemaker Airbus saw its shares fall 2.1% after it had to recall and order immediate software repairs for 6,000 jets globally, more than half of its worldwide fleet.Meanwhile, shares in major defence companies, including Hensoldt, Rheinmetall, and Leonardo, also dropped by more than 3% each.Finally, London-listed Impax Asset Management also saw its stock fall by 3.6% after releasing its yearly financial results. On the geopolitical front, officials from the U.S. and Ukraine held encouraging talks on Sunday about a possible peace deal with Russia, though US officials remained cautiously optimistic given the obstacles to ending the three-year conflict.On the FX front, the yen grew stronger on Monday. This was largely because the Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, gave a very strong hint that the central bank might consider raising interest rates at its policy meeting in December. This unexpected possibility caused the yen to rally, pushing the US dollar down 0.4% against it to 155.51 yen.Meanwhile, the dollar struggled overall because investors are increasingly betting that the US central bank will cut interest rates later this month.This environment helped the euro climb to a two-week high of $1.16155. In contrast, the British pound (sterling) dipped 0.2% to $1.3211, taking a pause after its best weekly performance in over three months, which had followed the UK's recent budget announcement.Finally, cryptocurrencies saw a sharp drop, with Bitcoin falling 5.7% to $85,949 and ether dropping 6.4% to $2,828.41.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices increased by 2% on Monday, reaching their highest point in over a week, due to several factors raising concerns about the future supply of oil.First, the group of major oil-producing countries known as OPEC+ confirmed their current plan to keep oil production levels unchanged, meaning they will not increase the amount of oil being pumped into the market. Second, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium completely stopped exporting oil after a significant drone attack occurred in the area. Third, growing tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela also added to supply worries.Because of these concerns, the price of Brent crude oil futures rose by 1.96% to $63.60/barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures jumped by 2.08% to $59.77 per barrel.Gold prices rose significantly on Monday, reaching their highest value in a month and a half. This climb was mainly driven by investors expecting that the US Federal Reserve might cut interest rates later this month, combined with changes in the Fed's leadership.Specifically, the price of spot gold increased by 0.3% to $4,249.21/oz.Furthermore, silver also experienced a major jump, surging to a record high price. The futures contracts for US gold for December delivery saw an even bigger gain, rising 0.5% to $4,275.40.Read More:Gold (XAU/USD) Price Up 2.5% for the Week. Is a Break of $4200/oz a Certainty?Can Platinum catch up to Gold? Platinum (XPT/USD) Price ForecastEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session will be quiet today with attention largely focused on Geopolitics before the US session begins.The US session will bring PMI and ISM data which could impact the US Dollar as markets get back to normal following the US Thanksgiving break at the back end of last week. This will be a busy week for the US in terms of data as well as how rate cut expectations continue to evolve ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.For more information on the week ahead, read The Week Ahead of the December FOMC – Markets Weekly Outlook zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has held above the 100-day MA since Thursday afternoon.This could be seen as a sign of bullish momentum with a potential breakout coming soon.However, the longer price remains rangebound, this will increase investor angst and a potential pullback may materialize.For now though, a bullish move appears more favorable as markets enter the final month of 2025.Immediate support rests at 9686, 9661 and 9638 respectively.A move higher may encounter some resistance at 9750, 9800 and 9850.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, December 1. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

OPEC+ meets this Sunday, with no major policy shifts expected.Oil prices remain driven by speculation about a possible Ukraine ceasefire.Iraq’s overproduction raises internal tensions and calls for a higher quota.A minor technical adjustment to Iraq’s allocation is the most likely outcome. zoom_out_map Chart of Brent crude oil prices (CFD contract), daily data, source: TradingView Expectations for OPEC+ and the State of the Oil Market With the next OPEC+ meeting scheduled for this coming Sunday, the gathering is not expected to produce any major shifts in the group’s production strategy. Output limits remain locked in place through the end of 2026, and the eight countries that implemented voluntary production cuts have already confirmed that they will not increase production in the first quarter. This effectively limits the scope of the meeting to minor technical adjustments rather than meaningful policy changes. As a result, short-term operational strategy remains outside the agenda, reinforcing the view that the alliance intends to maintain continuity rather than surprise the market.Geopolitical Factors and Their Impact on Oil Prices Oil prices continue to be shaped largely by geopolitical speculation, particularly regarding the potential for a ceasefire in Ukraine. The rising probability of such an outcome has exerted downward pressure on crude prices, as a ceasefire would reduce the risk of attacks on energy infrastructure and could pave the way for partial or even full easing of sanctions. Still, the prospects for a near-term, credible peace agreement remain limited. Consequently, Brent prices have stabilized in the middle of the range seen since early October. The market’s lack of strong upward momentum also reflects the expectation that OPEC+ will avoid taking any breakthrough decisions during Sunday’s meeting.Internal Tensions within OPEC+: The Case of Iraq Although sweeping strategic changes remain unlikely, several internal issues require coordination. The International Energy Agency highlights that some member countries continue to produce well above their assigned quotas, with Iraq being the most notable case. The resumption of northern pipeline exports and growing production capabilities have strengthened Iraq’s case for a higher quota—similar to the adjustment granted to the United Arab Emirates last year. However, such changes must be carefully calibrated. Over-constraining certain members risks prompting withdrawals from the organization, as seen with Angola’s departure two years ago.Outlook and a Potential Compromise In this context, OPEC+ may opt for a moderate adjustment to Iraq’s production quota as a way to maintain unity within the group. The alliance must strike a balance between enforcing production discipline and preserving internal solidarity. While a change of this nature would be more symbolic than market-moving, it could help ensure long-term cohesion. Overall, Sunday’s meeting is likely to reaffirm OPEC+’s preference for incremental fine-tuning rather than major strategic pivots, underscoring its focus on internal relationship management rather than aggressive intervention in global oil supply. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - CME Trading Glitch Most Read: The Bank of Japan's FX Intervention: Mechanism, Impact, and Historical PrecedentTrading on the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange), which handles futures and options, had to be stopped because of a technical glitch. This problem specifically impacted the ability to trade things like US Treasury futures and S&P 500 Index contracts. Because the CME was down, it also caused problems for forex trading on the EBS platform.Meanwhile, global stocks, as measured by the MSCI All Country World Index, barely moved as investors lacked clear direction right after the US Thanksgiving holiday, though the index still managed to finish the entire week up by 3.1%. Asian stock markets were generally steady, but they are currently on track for their first monthly drop since March.The main index for Asia-Pacific stocks outside of Japan fell slightly by 0.3% on Friday, yet it was still up 2.7% for the week (the first weekly gain in a month), but it remains down 3% for the whole month.Japan's Nikkei stock index saw little movement on Friday and is set to end the week up by 3.2%, but it is still down 4.3% for the month.Samsung Electronics 005930.KS and SK Hynix 000660.KS fell around 2% each.German Retail Sales Fall, French Inflation Steady In Germany, retail sales fell by 0.3% in October 2025 compared to the previous month. This was a surprise, as markets had expected a small increase, and it reversed the slight gain seen in September. This marks the fifth time sales have dropped this year, driven mainly by a 0.7% decline in sales of non-food items and a 0.6% fall in online and mail-order business.In France, the annual inflation rate remained stable at 0.9% in November 2025, which was lower than the 1% rate forecasters expected. This steady rate was due to slower price increases for services (especially communication costs) and a slightly bigger drop in the prices of manufactured goods. These effects were partially balanced out by energy prices falling less sharply than before, and food inflation speeding up just slightly.Finally, France's inflation rate, when measured using the EU's standard method (Harmonised CPI), also stayed at 0.87% annually and fell 0.2% from the previous month.European Session - Sombre Black Friday European stock prices barely changed on Friday.Despite this, they are on track to have their best week in two months and are set for a fifth straight month of gains, mainly because investors are increasingly betting that the US will cut interest rates soon. Investors avoided making large trades as they headed into the weekend, especially with the U.S. stock market only open for a half-day.Trading was further complicated by a technical failure at the CME Group, which stopped trading on its key currency platform and on futures markets for things like stocks, effectively freezing several major stock indexes as brokers withdrew their products.The main European stock index, the STOXX 600, slipped slightly by 0.1%, but it is still heading for its longest streak of monthly wins since March 2024.Within the index, Energy stocks performed the best, rising 0.3% because oil prices went up. Travel and leisure stocks were the worst performers this morning, dropping 0.7%. In company news,Delivery Hero shares jumped 8.75% after a report suggested that investors are pressuring the management to consider selling the company or breaking up parts of the business.On the FX front, the US dollar is currently set for its biggest weekly drop since late July. This weakness is because traders are increasingly expecting the Federal Reserve to further lower interest rates next month. The market was also quieter than usual because of the US Thanksgiving holiday.The dollar index, which tracks the dollar's value against six other major currencies, was up slightly by 0.1% at 99.624, recovering a bit after five days of losses.In Asia, the Japanese yen saw its value move up and down after a recent period of decline; it was last 0.1% weaker at 156.385 yen as strong job market and inflation data suggested that Japan might tighten its monetary policy. The euro was stable at 1.1600.The British pound was 0.1% weaker at $1.323 on the day, but it is still heading for its best weekly performance since early August, following the UK Finance Minister's plan to raise £26 billion ($34 billion) in taxes.The Australian dollar gained slightly, up 0.1% at $0.6536. Finally, the offshore Chinese yuan was steady at 7.074 yuan per US dollar and is on track for its best monthly gain since August.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs The price of Brent crude oil futures rose slightly on Friday. This was due to ongoing tensions because the Russia-Ukraine peace talks are dragging out, which keeps geopolitical risks high.Additionally, traders were watching the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on Sunday for any signals about whether the group plans to change how much oil it produces.Separately, the trading of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures was stopped because of the CME Group system issue.Spot prices for gold increased and are heading for their fourth monthly gain in a row. This rise is mainly supported by investors who are optimistic that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December.However,just before the CME outage, US gold futures for December delivery were priced at $4,221.30/oz.Read More:Gold (XAU/USD) Price Up 2.5% for the Week. Is a Break of $4200/oz a Certainty?Silver (XAG/USD) Price Outlook: Failed Breakout and Double-Top hints at Rangebound actionOil falls below $58 as Ukraine agrees to 19-point Peace PlanEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session will be all the focus given that US markets will close early.We still have German inflation data to be released before eyes turn to the Canadian GDP release early in the US session..Market participants are still paying close attention to geopolitical news, but so far, it hasn't had a major effect on currency exchange rates. Yesterday, President Putin suggested that the agreement being discussed in Geneva could serve as a starting point for a future peace deal with Ukraine.Adding to this, Steve Witkoff, the US peace envoy, is confirmed to visit Moscow next week. Because of this upcoming visit, we might see growing hopes that a major breakthrough in the negotiations is possible. Although the financial markets are quite doubtful that a peace deal will actually happen, any real progress from this point onward is expected to cause the US dollar to weaken and potentially boost the value of higher-risk European currencies. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has continued its recovery bouncing off support at the 9660 support handle yesterday.The index trades above the 100-day MA again with further gains toward 9750 and beyond a possibility.A pullback now faces support at 9630 (200-day MA) and the 9550 handle which could prove a tough nut to crack for bears.The RSI period-14 remains above the 50 mark which is a sign of bullish momentum.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, November 28. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Labour government is set to release a crucial budget plan on November 26. Instead of announcing new spending, the main goal is to prove that the government is being careful with money to keep financial markets stable. Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces a tough challenge as she tries to stick to the strict financial rules she created for herself. Her plan focuses on three main priorities: reducing the time people wait for healthcare (NHS), paying down the country's debt, and lowering the cost of living for everyone.Read More: Gold Price Forecast: Bullion rallies to $4,118 key level as markets increase Fed rate cut betsThe Immediate Fiscal Challenge and the OBR Downgrade The economic context necessitates aggressive action. The pressure begins with the widely anticipated forecast revision by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which publishes its updated economic and public finances outlook concurrently with the Budget statement.Experts expect the OBR to admit that its previous growth predictions were too optimistic, which will likely reveal a hole in the government’s finances of £20 to £30 billion. This problem is made worse by the fact that the government has already borrowed nearly £10 billion more this year than originally planned.Market participants are watching closely; if the government cannot prove it has a credible plan to fix this gap and build a safety cushion, investors will lose trust. This loss of confidence would make it much more expensive for the UK to borrow money, as it would suggest the government is reacting to a crisis rather than following a solid, long-term strategy.Policy Watchlist: The Mechanics of Stealth and Wealth Taxation Labour's fiscal strategy is heavily constrained by explicit manifesto pledges ruling out any increases to the rates of Income Tax (basic, higher, or additional), National Insurance, or VAT, alongside a commitment to cap Corporation Tax at 25%. To close the substantial fiscal gap, estimated to require gross revenue generation approaching £30–40 billion (when accounting for non-negotiable spending), the Chancellor is compelled to employ a strategy focused on "stealth" taxes and targeted measures on wealth.The Engine of Revenue: Stealth Taxation via Fiscal DragThe main way the government plans to raise this money is by freezing the income levels at which people start paying tax. Even though official tax rates aren't changing, rising wages and inflation (which was 3.6% in October 2025) mean that more people will be pushed into higher tax brackets.This process, known as "fiscal drag," is expected to generate a massive £42.9 billion by 2027 and will increase the number of higher-rate taxpayers from four million to over ten million. While this helps the government keep its election promises, economists worry it might discourage people from working harder or saving money.Targeted Wealth Measures and Expenditure CommitmentsBeyond these stealth measures, the budget is expected to target assets and property, which the government views as undertaxed. We may see higher taxes on profits from selling assets (Capital Gains Tax), stricter rules on inheritance and tax-free gifts, and higher taxes on expensive homes, potentially including a "mansion tax" for properties worth over £2 million.This extra money is needed to pay for expensive commitments, such as increasing the State Pension by over £550 a year and lifting the cap on benefits for larger families. To make the numbers work, the Chancellor may also introduce smaller charges, such as a tax per mile for electric vehicle drivers and reduced tax perks for high earners paying into pensions. zoom_out_map Created by Zain Vawda, Data from LSEG, ING Market Implications for the GBP and UK Gilts The value of the British Pound is currently being pulled in two directions. On one side, a solid government budget would boost trust and help the currency; on the other, if the Bank of England cuts interest rates quickly, the currency usually weakens.Right now, the Pound is trading around 1.31 against the US dollar because investors have already accounted for most of the uncertainty. If the Chancellor presents a strong and believable financial plan, the Pound could stabilize or rise slightly. However, if the plan is weak or hurts economic growth, investors might sell off the Pound. For the currency to truly gain value, the trust created by a good budget must be strong enough to overcome the natural dip caused by falling interest rates.GBP/USD Daily Chart, November 25, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Government Bonds (Gilts) and Political RiskThe market for UK government bonds, known as "Gilts," is in a risky position. Part of this is due to global trends, such as huge spending on AI and defense, which pushes long-term interest rates up worldwide.However, the biggest specific threat to the UK is domestic politics. If the current government looks unstable or weak in the polls, investors worry that a new leader might take over and start borrowing recklessly. Since the UK already plans to sell nearly £300 billion in bonds for the 2025-26 period, investors are nervous. If they feel the political situation is shaky, they will demand higher returns (yields) to lend their money, making it more expensive for the government to borrow.The Solution: A Strong Budget A strict and credible budget is the best way to calm the bond market. If the government proves it can manage its money well, the Bank of England will feel safe enough to cut interest rates faster and deeper. With inflation at 3.6% and the current interest rate at 4.00%, a tight budget helps the central bank lower borrowing costs for everyone.This strategy is expected to balance the economy: short-term rates will fall as the Bank of England eases its policies, while long-term rates will stabilize because investors will finally trust the government's financial plan.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Currently trading at $4,118 per troy ounce, gold has started the week on an encouraging note, finding support in Monday’s session.Rallying by staggering 1.70% in yesterday’s trading, which, albeit by recent accounts, seems to be perfectly normal, dovish comments made by Fed Williams last week have offered a new lease of life to current gold upside.Join me as I attempt to answer the question:What’s next for gold?Gold (XAU/USD): Key takeaways 25/11/2025 Dovish comments from John Williams, President & CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, have recently challenged an increasingly hawkish narrative from the Fed, with rate cut probabilities spiking ahead of the December decision and bolstering gold pricingIn the face of a stronger dollar, which currently trades at three-month highs, gold has found support at the 20-day moving average and will look to target $4,200 in the short termGold continues to benefit from uncertainty created by the government shutdown, in no small part thanks to a perceived decline in central bank efficacy owing to the lack of data, which otherwise would be relied on to make monetary policy decisions Read Elior’s market wrap-up from yesterday’s session, including changes to the FOMC path:How fast the tides turn – Market wrap for the North American session - November 24Gold (XAU/USD): At the mercy of the Federal Reserve Granted, the above sounds like the title of a James Bond film, but the point remains: The health of the current gold rally, and indeed much of the US equity markets, is at the mercy of the Federal Reserve and how votes are cast on December 10th zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) vs Dollar Strength Index (DXY), D1, OANDA & TVC, TradingView, 25/11/2025 It was less than a week ago that I wrote an increasingly hawkish Fed had caused gold price to settle at $4,077, mainly on the back of October’s FOMC Minutes, which revealed “strongly differing views” amongst policymakers, as well as comments from Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve Philip Jefferson to “proceed slowly” with the current easing cycle.The difference a week can make in the markets, however, continues to amaze me.If you would, let’s discuss some of the macroeconomic themes within the precious metals markets, with special attention to current predictions for the December Fed meeting.Gold (XAU/USD): Fundamental Analysis 25/11/2025Fed Chair Williams shocks markets with dovish commentary I won’t bury the lead - the latest U-turn in relation to Federal Reserve monetary policy has not offered newfound support, but represents the most significant of macroeconomic themes within precious metal markets.Speaking last Friday at the Central Bank of Chile Centennial Conference in Santiago, Fed Williams offered the following commentary, to the surprise of much of the markets: "Looking ahead, it is imperative to restore inflation to our 2 percent longer-run goal on a sustained basis. It is equally important to do so without creating undue risks to our maximum employment goal. I view monetary policy as being modestly restrictive, although somewhat less so than before our recent actions.Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral, thereby maintaining the balance between the achievement of our two goals.My policy views will, as always, be based on the evolution of the totality of the data, the economic outlook, and the balance of risks to the achievement of our maximum employment and price stability goals" John Williams, President & CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, speaking at the Central Bank of Chile Centennial Conference, Santiago, Chile In a nutshell, the above commentary presented a dovish perspective on the upcoming decision, in contrast to previously hawkish comments that, according to the CME FedWatch tool, had previously had markets predicting rates would be maintained at odds of over 70%. zoom_out_map CME FedWatch, 25/11/2025 Predictably, William’s words have reignited hope for a rate cut in December, which, according to some sources, now trades at an ~80% probability. Naturally, this bodes well for precious metals, which benefit from lower interest rates, as the opportunity cost of holding gold compared to dollars becomes lower.This would go some way to explaining the recent support found in gold bullion pricing.It’s worth mentioning that, as per my previous commentary, October’s FOMC Minutes highlighted a split room amongst policymakers, which, by definition, would mean that a few changes of opinion could sway the vote in December.As a personal aside, I cannot remember a time when a Fed meeting has been so contested in terms of dovish and bearish push and pull, similarly to how we’ve seen for the upcoming meeting - never a dull moment.I’ll briefly touch on a few remaining points, since the fundamental outlook remains essentially unchanged since the last time we spoke.Gold undeterred by dollar upside It was VP of NNFX who once said that gold drives the bus, and having received these words in my formative years as a trader, they have stuck with me throughout.They are especially relevant to recent events, however, with dollar and gold prices currently rallying alongside each other.While I won’t pretend that there has been an astronomical upside for either in the past few days or so, both trade substantially higher since mid-September.Logically, of course, there is at least some level of negative correlation between gold and dollar pricing, with falling USD value across 2025 offering some upside to gold, being priced typically in USD.With that said, gold drives the bus, meaning that gold can rally despite the best efforts of a stronger dollar.Albeit perhaps not to the same extent as years past, the dollar still maintains some safe-haven appeal, with the uncertainty of delayed data releases, courtesy of the longest US government shutdown in history, adding to the risk premium.The same can be said for gold, of course, which can explain, at least in part, why both have rallied in recent memory.What I mean to say is that gold and the US dollar often share common ground in terms of economic tailwinds that often cause pricing to rally, especially in risk-off marketsAs such, a downgrade in the dollar’s safe-haven appeal directly benefits gold, as seen this year, with both assets competing for a finite amount of safe-haven demand.Let’s progress into some market technicals to wrap up, alongside some price levels to watching.XAU/USD: Technical Analysis 25/11/2025XAU/USD: Daily (D1) chart analysis: zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD), D1, OANDA, TradingView, 25/11/2025 In the spirit of honesty, much of my analysis remains unchanged from my previous coverage, as all price targets and support levels remain intact.With that said, fair warning: market expectations for the upcoming Fed meeting could invalidate any level of technical analysis should another narrative shift occur.Considering how volatile the run-in to the December meeting has been, traders would be well-advised to plan their exits carefully.Now that my observations to generic trading advice is out of the way, let me start by saying that gold remains very well-supported on a technical basis. There has been little to question the ongoing rally, even though it has fallen substantially from all-time highsWhat’s important is that price seems to have found support around $4,050, and should price continue upwards, this would suggest that we remain in uptrend territory, forming a higher low.The next test will of course be the previous highs, as in, the higher high part, to fully confirm.Should this happen, and considering the firm fundamental footing also, we could make another bid for all-time highs.With that said, and if I were a betting man, all-time highs are only likely to be achieved in the next two weeks before volume begins to wane courtesy of holiday festivities.For this to happen in two weeks alone would be a stretch, so I’d be looking at early 2025 at best for record pricing. Just my two pence.Price targets and support/resistance levels: Price target/Resistance #1 - $4,240 - Previous support/resistancePrice target/Resistance #2 - $4,381 - All-time highsSupport #1 - $4,056 - 20-Period SMASupport #2 - $4,000 - Key psychological levelSupport #3 - $3,889 - Swing low Read more from MarketPulse in today’s session: Markets Today: Rate Cut Bets Surge, FTSE 100 Eyes Retest of 200-day MA, Geopolitics and US Retail Sales in Focus Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Markets Weekly Outlook - UK Budget in Focus as Global Equities Eye RecoveryMarket participants are eyeing the US Dollar Index (DXY) as it hovers above the crucial 100.00 barrier. The greenbacks recent rally has been impressive but may fail to gain traction unless acceptance is achieved beyond the 100.00 psychological level.A break above the 100.00 psychological level is no surprise to market participants as we have seen two forays beyond this handle in recent weeks. Having broken below the 100.00 mark in May of 2025, the DXY has attempted two recoveries prior to the current one. The result? A significant materialized each time the DXY attempted a push higher beyond the 100.00 mark. Is history set to repeat itself?From a technical standpoint, the Daily chart below appears to have printed a potential double-top pattern which hints at a deeper pullback.The 200-day MA rests just below the 100.00 psychological level which could serve as dynamic support if price moves lower.A break of the 200-day MA would be needed for a deeper correction to take place.Acceptance above the 100.00 mark may find resistance at 100.61 before the 102.16 handle comes onto focus.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, November 24, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Macroeconomic Backdrop This week, which is shorter due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. on Thursday, a lot of attention will be on peace talks concerning Ukraine. Recent reports suggest the U.S. is becoming less supportive of Russia's maximum demands, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy might travel to Washington later this week for direct talks with U.S. President Donald Trump. While specifics from the current Geneva peace talks are few, the overall mood is tentatively hopeful.Aside from politics, the U.S. dollar's performance this week will be largely driven by upcoming U.S. economic data and the release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report on Wednesday evening. Tomorrow's retail sales data for September is expected to be strong, but the market is likely more interested in the Beige Book. Any informal information within that report from the Fed's regions indicating that the recent slowing in job growth is spreading could quickly renew the discussion about a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December. This possibility was recently highlighted on Friday by comments from New York Fed President John Williams favoring another December rate cut, which caused the market's expectation for a December cut to jump back up to 75%. This high probability of a cut leads to the question of why the dollar is not weaker this morning.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (24/11/2025): As we start week 48, join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they discuss the end-of-week rally in US equities, the upcoming UK budget on Wednesday, ever-changing expectations of the FOMC meeting in December, as well as the latest on the FX markets, including JPY and AUD. Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Equities have endured another rough week, defying the logic of strong earnings reports from heavyweights like Walmart and Nvidia, both of which provided optimistic forward communications. zoom_out_map Global Index performance this week (US, Canada and Europe) – Source: TradingView The market is currently wrestling with a toxic mix of headwinds hurting sentiment: Growing fears that AI investment has peaked coinciding with signs that the labor market may also be topping out. Furthermore, tariffs—now in place for almost six months—are visibly biting the American consumer, fueling concerns that interest rates could be held higher for longer as the Fed battles the inflationary prospects of trade barriers.However, a lifeline appeared in the form of NY Fed President John Williams, who brought back hopes for the December meeting. His comments single-handedly resurrected the probability of a cut, swinging market pricing from a bleak 20% chance yesterday morning back up to above 70%. This massive repricing only magnifies how quintessential incoming data will be as the Fed’s double mandate slowly shifts its focus back towards inflation. After a 2% drop throughout all major US Indices yesterday, some small dip-buying is occurring, but it remains inconsequential due to the prevailing high fear levels. As time develops, some selling flows are picking up, making the whole picture even more blurry.The weekly close will be critical for next week's action: we are trading right around the October lows. Any breach lower could drag further selling and confirm a breakdown, while a rebound from here points more to rangebound action as more data unfolds. zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap (10:28 A.M.) – The picture is broadly green– November 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView You can see how tricky Markets are. Nvidia is actually down for the second consecutive session after posting record earnings!Let's dive right into the intraday outlook for all three US Major indices: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:EUR/USD technical analysis: Spotting Mean Reversion in the 2,000 pip RangeNasdaq 100: 8% sell-off damages medium-term uptrend, potential multi-week corrective decline aheadGold (XAU) and Silver (XAG) send mixed signals to doubtful TradersA global Outlook on US Indices zoom_out_map US Main Indices Daily Outlook – Rough corrections. November 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 8H Chart, November 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones oscillates around the 46,000, slightly more resilient than its tech-heavier peers.The better prospects from the Walmart Earnings has helped to maintain some life in the DJIA which represents US Manufacturing and defensive sectors with more emphasis.It's resisting better to the selling flows but would also need better sentiment to get back on track: Its 8H RSI is struggling to bounce higher.Still, the price action stands at a key psychological level. Closing above the 46,000 level should bring some dip-buying into next week.However, below this, further correction should be expected.Dow Jones technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 48,459Resistance zone 47,500 - 47,650Pivot now resistance 47,000 to 47,20046,400 to 46,400 Momentum Pivot and 4H 50-period MA (46,375)Psychological resistance at 48,000Support Levels46,000 +/- 300pts Immediate SupportAugust highs and Yesterday's Lows 45,71545,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)44,400 to 44,500Nasdaq 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 8H Chart, November 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Nasdaq is struggling the most out of all US Indexes, also trying to hang onto the 24,000 level.There is an ongoing battle between sellers and buyers at the lows, therefore keep an eye on the Weekly lows (23,841): Breaching this could add further pressure to the Index.If things stay around here however, a short-timeframe double-bottom could help bulls towards a rebound – Watch if the session closes above or below 24,000!Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMini-resistance at 25,500 Gapintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current Pivot 25,000 to 25,250 (Breaking)Channel highs 25,300 to 25,350Support LevelsOctober low support just around 24,000 (Testing)Weekly lows 23,841August NFP highs at 23,700 (next support)Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 8H Chart, November 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 has broken below 6,600, a Major psychological support.Similarly as its peers however, it is holding its October ATH Support levels. Bouncing here will be key for buyers in an attempt to regain the 6,600 level.Breaching the 6,512 lows would on the other hand be an acceleration sign for Sellers.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,930 (current All Time-Highs)6,694 session highs6,680 to 6,700 support now Pivot (session highs)6,800 Psychological resistanceResistance 6,720 to 6,750 (testing immediate)Support Levels6,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows Immediate Support6,400 Key Support6,210 to 6,235 Support (August NFP Lows)January 2025 Record 6,152Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

After rebounding well through the past week, what was initially thought to be a broader trading range is actively contracting into a tight consolidation pattern.Currently stuck between 1.15 and 1.17 (+/- 150 pips), the most popular FX pair hasn't been able to find a concrete direction since reaching its peak back in July.The US Dollar made its point again earlier, fueled by the Fed's hawkish repricing as fears of a December "non-cut" created sudden demand for the Greenback, leading to a series of lower price action in the pair. zoom_out_map December Cut pricing, November 21, 2025 – Source: FedWatchTool However, Fed member communication continues to heavily influence flows. Comments from NY Fed President John Williams—a very influential voice—have put the December cut back firmly on the table, bringing pricing right back around 70% from 20% just yesterday morning.As cuts are typically negative for a currency, this shift has applied fresh pressure on the Dollar, potentially boosting the pair as it tests its range lows.Meanwhile, Christine Lagarde mentioned in a recent speech that Europe is "increasingly vulnerable to shocks," noting that the AI boom has further amplified the volatility seen in EU stocks throughout 2025. In the context of EUR/USD, both economies remain highly vulnerable to such market developments.Let's dive in EUR/USD multi-timeframe analysis. Read More:Growing Oversupply in the Global Oil MarketAltcoins make new lows, Total Market Cap falls below the 2021 recordNasdaq 100: 8% sell-off damages medium-term uptrend, potential multi-week corrective decline aheadEUR/USD Multi-timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map EUR/USD Daily Chart, November 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView Oscillating between the 1.1470 Pivot Support zone and the 1.1650 Pivot Zone, the pair provides strong support and resistance levels to base analysis on.2025 has been a trending year, but rangebound action takes place around 70% of the time in Markets and particularly in FX.Hence, spotting ranges like these early can provide opportunities.With the RSI also flattening, playing mean-reversion has high probabilities of functioning.However, spot trends in the US Dollar: Strong numbers before the December 10 meeting can add further USD strength and break the 1.1470 Support. Let's take a closer look4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map EUR/USD 4H Chart, November 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView EUR/USD responds well to overbought and oversold RSI levels, a good indicator of rangebound action.Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:Resistance Levels1.1630 to 1.1670 Pivot zone (range Highs)1.1750 mini-resistanceResistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)Sep 2021 Highs – Resistance 1.19 to 1.1950 ZoneWeekly highs 1.1656Support Levels1.1470 to 1.15 range support4H MA 200 Mini-support 1.161901.1475 to 1.15 Support Zone1.1350 to 1.14 SupportSession lows 1.149661H Chart zoom_out_map EUR/USD 1H Chart, November 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView Adding to the up-and-down price action, the key moving averages, particularly the longer 200-H MA is starting to flatten, indicating a non-trending environment.Still, Traders will have to closely monitor the past week lows (1.1470) and highs (1.1656) to check for potential breakouts:A daily close above or below such levels would be indicative of a potential breakoutData can also have an influence on such trading ranges, therefore it is very important to keep track of releases. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The narrative of an "AI investment winter" coming to an end has been a terrifying prospect for stock aficionados, casting a long shadow over the beginning of the month.After the data-blackout from the US Government, markets were increasingly jittery, spooked by a a lack of public information, not-so-great private reports and gloomy foreshadowing from industry titans like the Nvidia CEO and OpenAI CFO.But Nvidia (NVDA) flipped the script entirely, and the market is loving it:Talk about a beat on earnings: the numbers were stellar, but the forward communications were even more ecstatic with some $500 Billion of AI-Chip investment expected next year from the Semiconductor giant, dispelling fears of a peak in AI Investment.You can access the entire earnings report here if interested.The most valuable company in the world is already heading back just below the $200 mark (trading around $191.90 after-hours), dragging the entire tech sector out of its sentiment-slump. zoom_out_map Nvidia (NVDA) 8H Chart – Gap higher and small retracement. November 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView Combine this with the strong Jobless Claims report and the long-awaited September NFP number, and the signal is clear: the US economy is not done growing yet.As explained in our Market analysis yesterday, the Nasdaq failed to break concrete lows, formed a sturdy technical base (a triple bottom), and is now flying higher on renewed stellar momentum and sentiment.The only remaining hurdle will be to see if the hawkish Fed repricing—confirmed by yesterday's Minutes—doesn't step in to cap this renewed euphoria.Let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis for the tech-heavy and back-on-top Nasdaq. zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap (10:13 A.M.) – November 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More:Markets Today: NFP in Focus as Rate Cut Bets Tumble, NVIDIA Earnings Boost SentimentNikkei 225: Bulls back in vogue with 4% “Takaichi Trade”rallyNorth American mid-week Market update – US Data is finally back!Nasdaq multi-timeframe technical analysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) Daily Chart. November 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq just broke a 19-day streak with descending price action with a powerful daily candle forming a bullish engulfing after the fake out lower from the weekly open.Still evolving within its descending channel, the rebound is still young but looks powerful in the current state.Daily RSI is just reaching the neutral zone, which bulls will have to breach to put back momentum into their hands.Currently breezing through the Daily Pivot zone between 25,000 to 25,250, the buying is steep but there are a few technical hurdles left:Keep an eye on the top of the descending channel around 25,300 and the 4H 200-period MA (25,245).Let's take a closer look.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart. November 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMini-resistance at 25,500 Gapintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current Pivot 25,000 to 25,250 (Breaking)Channel highs 25,300 to 25,350Support Levels24,325 Session lows24,500 Main support (testing)October low support just around 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support1H Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 1H Chart. November 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView Now evolving in a short-timeframe upward channel from its breakout, some profit-taking is occurring right around the top of the Pivot Zone at a confluence with the 4H MA 200 after a 1H RSI bearish divergence.The session highs are at 24,235 and will have to be breached by bulls in order to keep up their chance at coming back to their all-time highs.Momentum is swift but today will be a huge test to Buyer sentiment in Market.Failing to re-enter the upward channel may bring darker times ahead; the session close will be very important.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for November 19Markets were already going back and forth in anticipation of the Nvidia earnings, but they got even more food for thought with a double-header of macro and micro shocks.US Equity futures, particularly the Nasdaq, are raging higher after Nvidia (NVDA) published yet another beat on some already sky-high expectations.Nvidia shares have surged to $191.90 in after-close trading, up about 3% and counting. zoom_out_map Nvidia Q3 Earnings report, November 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView This beat provides exactly what the market needed in uncertain times, serving as a potent counter-narrative to the doubts on how sustainable the Stock Market rally is.On a more gloomy note for Equity bulls, the FOMC Minutes turned more hawkish as traders were already pricing out the December cut aggressively, and the latest Fed report put a nail in the coffin—at least for now. The minutes revealed a distinct lack of confidence in immediate easing, with the report stating: "Many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year." This revelation likely takes out dreams of further cuts for 2025 and brings back a rough question for Markets:Is the "higher for longer" narrative making a comeback? Read More:North American mid-week Market update – US Data is finally back!NFP Preview: BLS Announces No October Report, November Report Delayed to After Fed Meeting. Rate Cut Bets Tumble Further, Implications for the DXYUS Market Outlook – Nasdaq attempts a run higher, but Bulls can't go too farCross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, November 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Today saw some relief in Equities, particularly for the post-close Nasdaq which caught fire after the huge Nvidia Earnings. Now participants will expect further continuation higher tomorrow. If not, things will look ugly.Bitcoin and Cryptos got sold off quite harshly again today, but some return of appetite in Tech after the NVDA numbers could put some hype back on the table. Everything will be in play tomorrow.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, November 19 – Source: OANDA Labs The US Dollar largely led the dance in Forex today, with an initial strong move magnified by the Hawkish FOMC minutes which put chills in all participants who thought it was going to be an easy path towards the Neutral Rate.Among the laggers today, the Antipodean currencies which are seeing consecutive outflows. Tonight's PBoC Rate Decision (21:30 ET) is having its impact on the selling in the AUD and NZD, so keep an eye on that.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tomorrow's session is stacked with finally, a return of US data.The early bird session begins with the Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) (3:00 A.M. ET), checking on the inflation pipeline, followed by German Buba report.However, the day truly starts with the North American session (8:30 A.M. ET), which will see the release of a massive tranche of US labor data:A late September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) with Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings. The data will be outdated but still watched closely by all the traders.Also releasing is the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the influential Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey.To compliment the data, Markets are awaiting comments from several influential FED members (Cook, Goolsbee, Miran) and BoE's Dhingra.The evening session should also be busy for JPY traders, who are focused on the Japanese National CPI (19:30 ET) tomorrow evening. This inflation figure is absolutely critical in shaping expectations for the Bank of Japan's future policy. Also on watch are the preliminary Australian S&P Global PMIs (18:00 ET) for the AUD.Don't forget the Walmart earnings right at the pre-open!Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.With the US government finally reopening its doors, markets are bracing for an immediate data deluge after months of flying blind. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scrambling to clear the backlog, with the delayed September Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) set to drop tomorrow, Thursday the 20th, followed by the release of PPI data on the 25th. Adding to the high-stakes environment, weekly jobless claims are also making a comeback tomorrow morning. While this influx of information is a gift to a Federal Reserve starved for clarity, it injects a fresh dose of anxiety into the market: will the data validate the "soft landing" or reveal deeper cracks? Traders are left questioning if a December rate cut is really still on the table given the new uncertainty – The freshly released FOMC Minutes might just have given an answer to that, saying that "it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year." You can access the report right here.Speaking of anxiety, the broader market is struggling to find its footing. The AI boom appears to be getting out of breath, and renewed hawkish commentary from Fed officials is putting a firm lid on ecstatic risk-asset rallies. On the geopolitical stage, the US President is "playing chess" again, with mediators actively trying to arrange a resolution to the Ukraine-Russia war—potentially involving high-stakes meetings—which has triggered aggressive moves in commodities and fueled further confidence in the US Dollar. The Greenback is loving the chaos, pushing back towards the psychological 100.00 level, while the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is also managing to get back on track. The emerging narrative of 2025 flows changing could indeed be a booster for North American currencies, but the final verdict will heavily depend on the reality revealed by upcoming data releases. In any case, let's dive right into a few charts to get an overview on North American Markets, from US and Canadian equity Markets performance, USD and CAD performance to USD/CAD and DXY charts.North-American Indices Performance zoom_out_map North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – November 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView The TSX is probably the only Stock Market holding tight with the ongoing profit-taking everywhere else.European stocks are doing worst than the US, on a relative note, but the mood hasn't been to prolific for risk-assets. Still, keep an eye on some ongoing dip-buying.Dollar Index 8H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index 8H Chart, November 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is catching strong momentum higher from the hawkish repricings and the FOMC Minutes – The December meeting should now priced out completely.Bulls will still have to break the early November highs at 100.376 but after this, there is no clear resistance before the 101.00 psychological level.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance zone100.376 November highsTop of channel and psychological level at 101.00Support Levels99.60 to 99.80 mini-resistance now pivotHigher timeframe Pivot 98.80 to 99.00 - Acting as SupportMini-support 98.50Main support 98.00US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map USD vs other Majors since last Monday, November 19, 2025 - Source: TradingView The Dollar is back on top, beating all other currencies on the way (except for the CAD, against which it is virtually unchanged).Look at the strong run against the yen. Some momentum is going through in USD/JPY, now breaking 156.00.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map CAD vs other Majors, November 19, 2025 - Source: TradingView. The Canadian Dollar is catching up on the past few months of bad performance. Some 2025 positions are unrolling, but more particularly, North American currencies are seeing a boost throughout with cuts now pricing out in both the US and Canada, which brings back quite some demand for their under-positioned currencies.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD zoom_out_map USD/CAD 8H Chart, November 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView USD/CAD has been holding quite a volatile range, with both currencies going back and forth throughout the past week.The pair reached some new monthly lows just last session, but the wave is coming back towards USD demand as the hawkish move pulls everything out of its way.Levels of interest for USD/CAD:Resistance LevelsLiberation Day level around 1.4050Cycle highs 1.4143Current Resistance between 1.4120 to 1.4145Key resistance 1.4250Support LevelsLiberation Day level around 1.4050Major Daily Support 1.39 (+/- 200 pips)1.38 Major support +/- 150 pipsAugust range support 1.37501.3550 Main 2025 SupportUS and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week zoom_out_map US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar The rest of the week brings some long-awaited US data once again.Thursday starts with a new round of heavy U.S. labor numbers : average hourly earnings, weekly hours, jobless claims, participation, unemployment, and the release of the September NFP print—all landing together and likely to spark volatility. Housing is also in play with existing home sales at 10:00 A.M. followed by several Fed speakers through the afternoon. Friday shifts the spotlight to Canada’s Retail Sales, with both headline and ex-autos expected to contract. In the U.S., the closing session is dominated by sentiment and PMI indicators, including S&P Global composite, manufacturing, and services readings, plus the full University of Michigan inflation revisions. Expect Multiple Fed appearances to round out the morning, making this a dense, market-moving finish to the week. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for November 18As the title says, Markets are roller coasters.Volatility fiends are loving the action, particularly when looking at how much back and forth action all asset classes are seeing.As was mentioned in one of our Market Wraps from a few days prior, such flows resemble those that can be seen at the end of huge Quarters.However, we are still far even for Month-end.November is known to be a volatile month (although usually one for upside in stocks).Crypto veterans can only confirm as the two past Market cycle tops (2018 and 2021) have happened between November and December.Seasonals are always a big thing in Market. Don't forget to keep an eye on them.Nevertheless, no one could have expected that another 2% gap down in stocks (particularly Tech) would be followed by a follow-up recovery, and once again close lower – Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon and Tesla are among the worst performers of today's session. zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap. November 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Still no apparent cause for the current volatility, at least for now.Traders are getting ready for some huge earnings reports, with Nvidia tomorrow (Check out our preview!) and Walmart the day after.How important they are cannot be emphasized enough. Read More:Bitcoin loses 2025 gains: $90,000 marks Crypto Market turning pointGold (XAU) and Silver (XAG) send mixed signals to doubtful TradersDollar-franc looks for support at triple bottom ahead of FOMC Minutes, eyes 0.80000Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, November 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView A clear wave has been drawn between Stocks and other asset classes today.Equities are victim of quite some anxiety these days. It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out.Keep an eye on Cryptos which ended up rebounding today after terrible performance (Dead cat bounce or bottom ?).Oil has been rebounding quite consistently too which remains something to keep your eyes on.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, November 18 – Source: OANDA Labs The lack of narrative explaining FX movement these past sessions has been pretty confusing to be quite honest.The Loonie saw strong flows bringing USD/CAD back below 1.40 for the first time since about a month, and competed with the AUD which saw strong flows once again (this one has been consistent).On the other hand, the CHF got hammered from what seems to be more position unrolling. Another victim of the Re-basement trade?Tomorrow's Earnings report – Nvidia in focus zoom_out_map Earnings Calendar for Wednesday, Nov 19 – Source: Nasdaq.com Nvidia will release their earnings after the session close. Expect very anxious trading throughout the session.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Wednesday is dominated by the UK’s inflation landscape, with CPI, core CPI, PPI outputs and inputs, and the retail price index all landing at once—an important cross-check for how quickly price pressures are cooling heading into year-end (if they actually are cooling).Europe follows with the ECB’s non-monetary policy meeting and a full set of harmonized inflation readings (not the most volatile usually), which should help shape expectations for the next policy steps.The Markets will once again have to focus on the Fed as the Bureau of Labor Statistics is slowly getting back into action – Expect more announcements.The North American session begins late with Miran and Williams before the FOMC Minutes hit (15:00 ET)—a potential catalyst if tone or language shifts from recent messaging, and particularly with the recent doubts regarding the upcoming Decision.The day wraps with China’s PBoC rate decision, expected to stay put but communications will, as always, be closely watched.NZD traders should also make sure to not forget the Wage Price Index data releasing at 20:00 ET in this evening's session.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Stocks Continue to Slide Most Read: NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: Navigating the AI Stress TestGlobal markets, especially stocks and Bitcoin, became weaker because traders are worried and reducing their risks. This cautious move comes right before two very important events: the release of Nvidia's company earnings report and the crucial US employment report.In Asia, stock markets hit their lowest points in a month. The biggest drops were seen in Japan (whose Nikkei index fell 3%) and South Korea (whose KOSPI index lost 3.3%), both known for their big technology sectors. Other major markets like Australia (down nearly 2%) and Hong Kong (down 1.67%) also fell significantly.The general drop in Asian markets followed a large sell-off in the US stock market (Wall Street) the night before, as investors prepared for many new economic reports to be released. A group of Japanese stocks related to Artificial Intelligence (AI) saw a big one-day drop of 4.7% on Tuesday.These same AI stocks had previously grown by a massive 130% from the start of the year until October but have now fallen about 15% since the end of October.European Session - Banking Stocks Drag European stock markets dropped to their lowest point in a week on Monday. This decline mirrored a global trend where investors are avoiding risk due to two main concerns: the technology sector being possibly overpriced (a potential "AI bubble") and the growing belief that the US Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates soon.The main European stock index, the STOXX 600, fell 1.1%, and major national markets like Germany and France also dropped over 1.2% each. Banking stocks in Europe were the biggest reason for this overall decline, falling more than 2%. Investor mood is delicate globally, especially with high expectations for Nvidia's earnings report coming on Wednesday, which is increasing concerns about an AI-related stock bubble.In Europe, companies that make AI-related equipment, such as Siemens Energy and Schneider Electric, saw their stocks fall, and ABB's shares dropped 4% after its growth outlook disappointed investors.Additionally, traders are being careful ahead of the important US jobs report due on Thursday. Although some data suggests the job market is weakening, comments from most Federal Reserve officials suggest they are less likely to cut interest rates in December. The one positive note was the Swiss drug company Roche, whose stock jumped nearly 6% after sharing good results from a late-stage trial for its breast cancer medicine.On the FX front, The Japanese yen got stronger against the dollar in Asian trading, bouncing back from its weakest point in over nine months. This happened because traders became less confident that the US Federal Reserve would cut interest rates next month, leading to a general move away from riskier investments across various markets.The US dollar weakened 0.3% against the yen, dropping to 154.885, as traders sought safety in the yen while stocks, gold, and Bitcoin were being sold off.The overall dollar index, which measures the dollar against other major currencies, was 0.1% weaker at 99.448. Meanwhile, the euro gained 0.1% against the dollar, ending a three-day slide. The Australian dollar fell slightly (0.2%) to 0.64785 after meeting minutes showed that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is questioning if its current interest rate of 3.6% is still strict enough, especially noting a rise in loans to property investors.The British pound remained steady at 1.3157, and the New Zealand dollar weakened slightly (0.1%) to 0.56475Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices dropped by almost 1% on Tuesday. This decline occurred because concerns about global oil supply were reduced after loading operations resumed at a key Russian export port. These operations had been briefly stopped following a strike involving a Ukrainian drone and missile.In the background, traders are still trying to understand how Western penalties (sanctions) will ultimately affect the amount of Russian oil reaching the market. Specifically, Brent crude oil futures fell by 56 cents (0.9%) to $63.64 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped by 54 cents (0.9%) to $59.37 a barrel.Gold prices dropped to their lowest point in over a week on Tuesday. The main reason for this decline was that traders are becoming less confident that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month, which reduces the appeal of gold.This price movement occurred as traders awaited the release of delayed U.S. economic reports later in the week. Specifically, the price of spot gold fell by 0.3% to 4,033.29/oz.Read More:USD/JPY: Potential minor top at 155.30, USD at risk of bearish reversal towards 154.20/153.65Gold (XAU/USD): 9% dead cat bounce rally at risk of reversal, watch US$4,036 downside triggerEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session will be quiet one in terms of data releases but we do have a host of Central Bank speakers from the ECB and BoE.The US session will bring some data releases but markets are more focused on the FOMC minutes on Wednesday as well as the NVIDIA earnings release. We have also heard from the BLS that September’s payrolls will be released on Thursday at 08:30 AM Washington time. That should limit the FX impact of tomorrow’s FOMC minutes and could prove as pivotal for macro as Nvidia’s earnings are for equities. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has broken below the crucial 200-day MA.However, the most recent four-hour candle closed as a hammer candlestick hinting at a potential recovery.Despite this price remains below the 200-day MA, with a close above the 9610 level needed to give me confidence that further upside may materialize.Immediate resistance rests at 9661 and 9700 before the 100-day MA at 9743 comes into focus.Immediate support rests at 9575, 9545 before the 9500 handle comes into focus.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, November 18, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.