Key takeaways Gold’s bullish acceleration remains intact: XAU/USD has broken above key supports, hit new all-time highs near US$4,970, and is now eyeing the US$5,000–5,150 zone, with momentum indicators confirming upside continuation.Geopolitics are the dominant macro driver: Rising US–NATO tensions and “sell America/de-dollarization” narratives are lifting geopolitical risk premiums, reinforcing gold’s role as a preferred safe haven.Technical structure supports further upside: A breakout from a medium-term ascending channel, strong RSI/MACD signals, and support holding above US$4,775 keep the near-term bias skewed toward further gains unless that level fails. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart Alert: Gold (XAU/USD) on the brink of bullish acceleration, US$4,780 next”, published on 14 January 2026The precious yellow metal has staged the expected bullish impulsive up move sequence above the highlighted US$4,512 short-term pivotal support and hit the short-term intermediate resistance of US$4,780 (printed a new intraday all-time high of US$4,967 on Friday, 23 January 2026 at the time of writing).Rising geopolitical risk premiums due to expansionary US foreign policy The recent rise in Gold (XAU/USD) from last Friday, 16 January 2026 swing low of US$4,536 has been reinforced by the “sell America/de-dollarization/debasement” narrative due to the current US expansionary and aggressive foreign policy, where US President Trump threatened long-time NATO allies of the US over the control of Greenland.The escalating confrontation between the US and NATO members signals a potential rupture in the post–World War II global order, with Washington increasingly perceived as stepping away from its traditional role as a responsible anchor of the rules-based, consensus-driven system.As a result, global asset allocators that have heavily overweighted US assets over the past two decades may begin to reassess and trim such exposures amid rising geopolitical risk premiums. This repricing dynamic is reinforcing a positive feedback loop for gold (XAU/USD), as demand for safe-haven assets accelerates in response to an increasingly fragmented and unpredictable geopolitical landscape.Let us now decipher the latest short-term (1 to 3 days) trend trajectory of Gold (XAU/USD) from a technical analysis perspectiveShort-term trend (1 to 3 days): Bullish acceleration extends zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 23 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) medium-term & major trends as of 23 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the US$4,775 short-term pivotal support on Gold (XAU/USD) to maintain the minor bullish acceleration phase for the next intermediate resistances to come in at US$5,000/5,005 and US$5,049/5,149 in the first step (see Fig. 1).On the other hand, a break with an hourly close below US$4,775 invalidates the direct rise scenario, allowing a minor corrective decline sequence to unfold and expose the next intermediate supports at US$4,684 and US$4,645/4,600 before another potential bullish upleg materializes.Key elements to support the bullish bias Since its key low of US$4,536 on 16 January 2026, Gold (XAU/USD) has staged a gap-up and broken above the upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel from its 28 October 2025 low, which suggests a transition into a bullish acceleration phase.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has not flashed out any bearish divergence condition while it continues to hover in its overbought region.The daily MACD trend indicator has continued to trend upwards above its centreline, which supports the ongoing medium-term uptrend phase in Gold (XAU/USD) with its first medium-term resistance at US$5,295/5,348 (see Fig. 2). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Talking points Rare drivers fuel surge: Rally past $4,900 driven by inflation, fiscal expansion (Stagflation), and geopolitical risk; 2026. Goldman Sachs targets raised to $5,400.FOMC narrative is key: Jan 27-28 meeting expected to hold rates. Focus is on "Neutral Rate" rhetoric: 3.5% terminal rate risks pullback; cooling labor market focus provides a tailwind.Upside supported, retracement warned: COT shows Managed Money not over-extended, however, swap dealers are at their extremes. Highly elevated RSI (78.00) and Stochastic (87.90) show divergence, warning of a potential retracement. The historic rally in gold prices, which saw the metal surge past $4,900 per ounce in late 2025 and early 2026, was driven by a rare convergence of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. With the January 27–28th, 2026, FOMC meeting approaching, the backdrop of high-altitude stability for gold is in focus. Prices have already surged significantly—trading near $4,800–$5,000—driven by a combination of fiscal expansion, geopolitical friction, and institutional uncertainty. The January meeting is less about a "rate move" and more about the "narrative shift."How this meeting is poised to impact gold prices: zoom_out_map Source: CME Group - FOMC January 27 - 28th 2026 meeting - Past performance is not indicative of future results The "Pause" and interest rate path According to the CME Fedwatch tool, the futures markets are pricing in just under two 25-bps interest rate cuts for 2026, with the cut expectations mostly for the second half of 2026. Lower nominal rates reduce the "opportunity cost" of holding gold, which pays no interest, making it more competitive against Treasury bonds.For the January 27 - 28, 2026, FOMC meeting, the market consensus is that the Fed will hold rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% after a string of cuts in late 2025. The CME Fedwatch tool has 95% of participants expecting the FED to hold, meaning a pause is largely priced in. However, gold’s sensitivity to the "Neutral Rate" remains the key variable. If Chair Powell’s press conference suggests that 3.5% is the new floor (the terminal rate) due to resilient growth, gold could see a short-term "profit-taking" pullback. Conversely, if the Fed expresses concern over the cooling labor market (currently adding only 50k jobs/month), markets will pull forward expectations for a June cut, providing a tailwind for non-yielding bullion.Inflation vs. fiscal policy Concerns around Stagflation dominate the 2026 economic landscape. Inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target, remaining near 2.7%–2.8%, while expansionary fiscal policies and tax cuts are propping up growth.Historically, gold has thrived when the Fed was perceived as "behind the curve." If the FOMC statement acknowledges that inflation progress has stalled but refuses to hike rates (due to growth risks), it reinforces gold's status as the ultimate inflation hedge.Institutional independence & geopolitical risk Unusually for an FOMC meeting, non-monetary factors are heavily influencing the "Fed premium" in gold prices. The recent legal and political challenges to the Fed’s independence (including the Supreme Court's scrutiny of Governor Lisa Cook's removal and investigations into Chair Powell) have fueled concerns about the Fed’s independence and its potential impact on future interest rates. Investors are using gold as a hedge against a potential "politicization" of the dollar. Any rhetoric in the Jan 28th statement that hints at defensiveness toward the Fed’s autonomy could actually spike gold prices as a vote of no confidence in the USD. Major banks (Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan) have already raised 2026 targets to $5,000–$5,400, suggesting that as long as the Fed doesn't pivot back to aggressive hiking, the path of least resistance for gold remains upward. With all that said, will this price rally continue? We will go over different technical analysis tools and indicators, as well as the most recent COT report released on January 16th, 2026, including data up to January 13th, 2026 Ready to decode market positioning? Register now for our weekly recurring live technical analysis webinar, where we dive into the latest COT report and explore essential technical analysis tools for trading FX, commodities, and market indices.Commitments of traders (COT) report zoom_out_map Source: cotbase.com - COT Gold futures net positions - Past performance is not indicative of future results Managed money (Large speculators): Trend followersUnlike previous peaks where speculators were "over-extended," the current net-long level is not yet at a historical sentiment extreme. Although this suggests there is more room to the upside regarding long positions, and they haven't yet reached the "exhaustion" point that usually precedes a major crash, a negative divergence may be in play as price makes higher highs while long positions are plotting lower highs.Swap dealers: Market makers and hedgersIn contrast to the managed money category, swap dealers, who typically take the other side of the market, have already reached their all-time extreme short level, suggesting a change in sentiment may be due.​Small speculators: Growing participationThere is a noticeable uptick in net long positions from small speculators in early 2026. This indicates that "main street" investors are increasingly entering the market, often in the final stage of a significant price surge.Open interest and volumeAlthough open interest remains high, it is showing a potential negative divergence with price action. Similar to OI, non-trending low volume is also seen along with price appreciation as of November 1st, 2025, which theoretically means that volume was not supportive of the price increase since Nov 1stTechnical analysis: Gold daily chart - Bullish momentum testing resistance zoom_out_map Gold daily chart - XAU/USD - Source: Tradingview.com - Past performance is not indicative of future results The daily chart shows a strong, long-term bullish trend that accelerated significantly in 2026. After a period of consolidation in late 2025, the price has broken out to the upside, currently trading near 4,900.00.As of early 2025, the gold price traded within a widening, rising channel, as indicated by the blue lines on the chart above. The "higher highs and higher lows" structure is well-defined, with the upper channel boundary intersecting with monthly R3 at 4913.58, forming a confluence of resistance.As of late October 2025, following a negative divergence with the RSI that preceded a $200 drop, gold prices rose back up, erasing the drop, breaking above its fast EMA9, the monthly PP of $4345.22, and the baseline of multiple higher lows, as marked by the red lines on the chart.A confluence of support lies beneath the price action, represented by the intersection of the EMA9, the breakout level (red line), and the newly formed price gap near $4630.00. The price gap may suggest an island formation; however, that’s yet to be determined.RSI (14) is currently at 78.00, indicating the asset is in overbought territory. A potential negative divergence remains between price and RSI.​Stochastic (14, 1, 3): The Stochastic oscillator is also highly elevated (87.90), confirming strong bullish momentum but suggesting that a short-term “cooling off” period or minor retracement toward the EMA may be imminent. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Indexes push higher yet again amid the latest Trump TACONow extending towards the Monday Futures gap, Stocks are back to neutral-bull territory – Key levels still have to be brokenExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 This morning brought a fresh wave of optimism to Wall Street.First, traders received an update from the Trump Administration regarding Greenland. The recent rhetoric had posed significant sentiment hurdles, triggering repricings after a positive start to 2026. The situation shifted yesterday afternoon when Trump posted that a framework for Greenland's strategic use by the US had been reached. While details remain unclear, the tone is calmer, easing fears of a NATO collapse or armed invasion. However, Greenland will likely continue to assert its sovereignty, meaning tensions could flare if the deal does not align with local views.Combined with the latest data, US sentiment is back at highs. Q3 GDP beat expectations (4.4% vs 4.3% expected), arriving alongside slight misses in PCE data. This combination supports a soft-landing scenario, the most favorable outcome for stocks.The ongoing earnings season is also leaving a decent impression. The key Magnificent 7 reports still face the test of extreme expectations, but the path should become clearer ahead of the January 28 FOMC meeting. Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and ASML report after the close on FOMC day, while Apple and Visa follow on Thursday. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:50 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 22, 2026 The picture is once again very green all around the Market, with Meta leading to the upside (+4.22%) and Mag 7s sustaining well after their more volatile 2025 year-end.This expresses some repositioning ahead of their earnings next week.Energy Minerals and Producer Manufacturing are among the lagging sectors.Dive into our daily session charts and trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 – Watch for pre-weekend volatility as the situation is fully clear yet and Iran remains a factor. Read More:Natural gas explodes by 70% in four sessions: What's next?Why silver prices in the US and China have diverged so sharplyA New World Order or TACO order? – North American mid-week Market updateDow Jones 4H Chart zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView Now easily brushing back above the 49,000 level, the DJIA is testing its all-time highs.The Morning 4H Candle just closed and expresses some form of momentum slowdown at previous highs, confirming more rangebound price action that could be expected all the way to next week's FOMC.Breaking and closing above the 49,715 all-time highs could see follow through as long as a break occurs on strong volume – Momentum has got more bullish but the TACO spike could slow downA pullback here could easily test the 49,150 level which crosses with the 4H 50-period MAAny session close below the 49,000 key level brings back seller strength which could move towards the 4H 200-MA (48,620)Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsSession Highs 49,62849,650 to 49,670 Current ATH ResistanceAll-time Highs 49,71050,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport Levels49,150 4H 50-period MAChristmas ATH High Timeframe Momentum Pivot – 49,000 Intraday support 48,600 to 48,700November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 Mini-SupportPsychological Support at 48,00045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is once again stuck in its higher timeframe Range (24,500 to 25,800) which has been containing its progress since its October drop.The two-session rebound is still very impressive, with the index up 2.50% during that span.Looking further to higher timeframes, consolidations at relative all-time highs are a positive sign as it allows Overbought conditions from the previous year to largely ease – Conditions needed for clean breakouts.Still, bulls will have to manage a daily close above the 25,700 Resistance in order to generate further momentum and potentially push for a new all-time high record.Next week's earnings will have a huge influence on Stock Movement. Keep a close attention to the Fed's communications next week.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsSession Highs 25,625Intermediate Resistance 25,700 to 25,850All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,182Support LevelsMomentum Pivot 25,200 to 25,500 +/- 75 ptssession lows 25,425Minor Support 25,000 to 25,25024,500 Main supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is about 100 points higher compared to our past day analysis, but the index is expressing some technical doubts as it faces a retest of its Monday Futures Gap (6,930).The current dragonfly doji candle indicates decent bull resilience but general balanced action which could easily lead to a retest of the 6,880 to 6,900 Pivot area.For bull/bear indications, traders can spot whether the action remains above the 4H 50-period MA (6,915) – closing below on high volume can prompt a further correction to 6,830-6,850, past day support levels.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsSession highs 6,938Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH Resistance at 7,000Support LevelsPivot Zone 6,880 to 6,900Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,850 (Past day support)6,800 Psychological Support6,789 session lowsSupport 6,720 to 6,750 (Mid-December lows at 6,729)6,400 Major psychological supportDon't forget to stay close to the headlines as the World Economic Forum is still ongoing!Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold prices steadied near $4 880 an ounce, just below record highs, after tensions over Greenland eased following a diplomatic breakthrough between Donald Trump, Europe, and NATO, temporarily cooling safe-haven demand.Geopolitical risk and concerns over U.S. monetary policy independence continue to support gold.Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its year-end gold price forecast to $5,400 an ounce, citing strong demand from private investors and central banks, while silver and other precious metals also extended gains. Gold stabilizes after a political storm zoom_out_map Daily timeframe of Gold, source: TradingView Gold prices steadied near $4 880 an ounce, very close to yesterday's all-time high, after tensions surrounding Greenland eased. For several sessions, the metal had hovered close to record levels, fueled by demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating diplomatic strains.Important was shift in tone from the White House. Donald Trump withdrew the threat of tariffs against Europe following an agreement with allies on a “framework for a future deal” concerning Greenland.Greenland, NATO, and financial marketsThe understanding announced after talks with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte includes a strengthened NATO presence, the stationing of U.S. missile systems, and rules governing mining rights—aimed at limiting Chinese influence in the region. The meeting at the World Economic Forum in Davos “took some of the temperature out of U.S.–EU tensions,” although there are still “plenty of dip-buyers” supporting gold prices.Goldman Sachs raises its forecastDespite the near-term cooling, the outlook for gold remains robust. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lifted its year-end gold price forecast to $5 400 an ounce, citing intensifying demand from private investors and central banks. Analysts emphasized that risks are “significantly skewed to the upside” amid lingering global policy uncertainty.Silver and other metals also advance zoom_out_map Daily Timeframe of Silver, source: TradingView Silver climbed as much as 2.8% and reach new all-time high at $96 an ounce and reversing earlier losses. Over the past year, prices have tripled, boosted by a historic short squeeze and heavy retail buying. Platinum and palladium also edged higher, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped slightly, offering additional support to precious metals.What’s next?Gold underlying fundamentals remain strong. Geopolitics, monetary policy, and structural investment demand continue to keep gold—and precious metals more broadly—firmly in the global market spotlight. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Natural Gas explodes to up 70% since the Friday closeSupply bottlenecks, geopolitical tensions and oversold prices build a cocktail for price explosionExploring Technical Levels for Natural Gas Natural Gas, historically highly correlated with WTI Oil, has largely decoupled over the past four sessions.While the weekly correlation ranged between 0.20 and 1.00 since 2020, it has turned close to negative in late 2025.Since the Sunday open, US Natural Gas prices have exploded by approximately 60%.While initially attributed to fears of European supply disruptions amid recent EU-US trade tensions, the reality is more complex.US output sits at decade lows.Persistently low prices have disincentivized production following the record output of 2023-2024, creating a supply bottleneck just as the Northern Hemisphere enters its coldest period.This winter differs significantly from recent years. Previous warm seasons created storage gluts and led to assumptions that milder winters were the new norm. However, the current reality is harsh (This current winter is a cold one, based in Montreal I can only confirm), challenging those assumptions.Simultaneously, power generation demand is surging.The need to power AI data centers and metal smelting operations—sectors currently seeing high demand—is outpacing futures delivery schedules, fueling this price acceleration.Stress on the system is amplified by the US's role as the world's leading LNG exporter, particularly to Europe following the closure of Russian supply routes.Consequently, demand spikes or supply troughs in Europe now have immediate impacts on US spot prices.The market is facing a perfect storm: a severe winter, rising global energy demand, and escalating tensions between key suppliers and constrained consumers.Add to this the instability in Iran—holder of the second-largest proven gas reserves—and persistent global conflicts, and the result is an explosive mix for prices.We will now dive into the Natural Gas charts, ranging from daily to intraday timeframes, to identify the trajectory of this squeeze, potential retracement levels, and historical context. Read More:Why silver prices in the US and China have diverged so sharplyA New World Order or TACO order? – North American mid-week Market updateHang Seng Index forecast: Dropped 1.5% but bullish trend intact with USD weakness as a tailwindNatural Gas Multi-Timeframe Technical AnalysisWeekly Chart zoom_out_map Natural Gas (ETF) Weekly Chart – January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView Natural Gas is posting a gigantic Bullish Marabozu candle (which doesn't show any wicks) indicating high pressure to the current Market.Now breaking outside of its 2024 Upward Channel, further upside could easily be warranted.The RSI is quickly moving to overbought levels and the daily action faces a short-term challenge at the 2022 Pivotal Resistance ($5.25 to $5.50).Current prices remain about 40% to the 20-Week MA highs (which got up to $7.194)!To trade Natural gas with close precision and further clues on physical supply/demand balances, keep a close eye on the EIA's daily reports – Today In Energy.Moving averages will be long to catch up to such a squeeze and won't serve as ideal technical indicators on higher timeframes (Weekly, Daily).One may rather look for support and resistance levels and Fibonacci-retracements for entries and exits.Daily Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Natural Gas (ETF) Daily Chart – January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView The 75% rise since Friday close is a frightening picture – This weekly close will be very key for upcoming action. See why on the intraday timeframe just below.Levels of interest for Natural Gas tradingResistance Levels$5.30 to $5.50 Immediate Resistance$5.68 Session and Weekly Highs2022 Key Pivot (As Resistance) $6.00 to $6.20December 2022 Resistance level $6.60 to $6.95August 2022 Record $10.15ATH in 2005 at $15.51Support Levels$5.00 to $5.20 Break-Retest support$5.00 Psychological mini-support$4.60 to $4.75 Major Momentum Pivot (61.8% Fib)$4.20 Pivotal Support ($4.10 4H MA 50)$3.60 Monday Support and 200-Day MA$3.00 August 2025 Support2H Chart zoom_out_map Natural Gas (ETF) 2H Chart – January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView Despite the extreme squeeze throughout the past few days, the action is reacting to some overbought levels and marking intermediate tops.With the current $5.67 Wick being rejected, Nat Gas is reacting well to the $5.30 to $5.50 Resistance Zone, which will act as key barometer for bull/bear strength:Breaking above on the Daily hints at a quick test of the $6.00 ResistanceRemaining here indicates a short-term pullback to the $5.00-$5.20 Break-Retest support – Look at the 2H 20-period MA.Correcting then bouncing from there would be the most sustainable bull-path for the commodityBreaking the $5.00 Support however should see a calmer price-action, extending the potential correction to $4.60 which will be an interesting Pivotal Support area.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Indexes rebound swiftly as Trump spoke in Davos but mid-session brings profit-takingEntire Market is propped up by better sentiment as speech tone easesExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Buyers are rising again this morning following a difficult start to the week.Sentiment had been negative since the weekend following comments from the Trump Administration regarding the acquisition of Greenland.The demands is blunt , and the primary concern is that this extends aggressive policy toward historic allies, going beyond conflicts with nations like Venezuela or Iran.Anxiety peaked yesterday after the EU suspended the July US-EU Trade Agreement, but today's bullish price action suggests the market is already moving forward.President Trump's generally not-so-aggressive tone at Davos helped sentiment, as he avoided escalating tensions further – He said that he won't use force.However, doubts persist, as EU leaders likely require a retraction of the Greenland rhetoric before tensions truly ease.Commodities are seeing a significant rebound today. WTI Oil rose to $60, and Natural Gas extended its squeeze with another 20% daily gain. In the metals complex, Gold and Platinum rose 3% to fresh highs, while Silver found resistance near $93.Except for European benchmarks, Stock Markets are shining green around the globe as TACO hopes make their return, with all US Indexes up around 1% or more today and the Nikkei catching up from its recent fall. zoom_out_map A look at the daily performance in Commodities, January 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView. XAG = Silver, XAU = Gold, XCU = Copper, XPT = Platinum, XPD = Palladium The economic calendar remains light for the rest of the session – Notable releases include a high Canadian PPI report, reflecting supply chain rerouting from tariffs, and a sharp decline in US Pending Home Sales, which fell 9.3% against expectations of a 0.4% rise.Tomorrow brings crucial PCE and GDP data, the final inputs before next week's FOMC meeting. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (10:57 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 21, 2026 The picture is looking very green throughout except for MSFT not following its Magnificent 7 peers and Consumer Defensives struggling.US Stocks could be posing a session top as profit-taking flows form – Dive into our daily session charts and trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 – Watch for potential bull traps! Read More:The Swissie wins: CHF demand spikes as traders shun the DollarChart alert: AUD/USD bullish breakout above 0.6720 as “sell America” intensifiesDown day for Trump's second-term anniversary – North American session Market wrap for January 20Dow Jones 2H Chart zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – January 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA really rallied back fast, breaking out of its past day corrective sequence and retesting the 49,000 Momentum Pivot Area.Momentum has showed some doubtful signs overall – The spiky action from today's rebound shows a general slowdown in volumes as uncertainty still reigns this Market.The 2H RSI is back to bullish territory but the reactions to a neutral area retest will have to be monitored as the buying action stalls at the 200-MA (48,978).Looking at where we are, remaining above the session support at 48,700 adds further chances of a real rebound.Closing below 48,600 would hint at a bull-trap until the uncertainty clears.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsChristmas ATH High Timeframe Momentum Pivot – 49,000 (2H MA 200 48,970)Session Highs 49,067Short Timeframe Resistance 49,200 to 49,30049,650 to 49,670 Current ATH ResistanceAll-time Highs 49,71050,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport LevelsIntraday support 48,600 to 48,700November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 SupportSession lows 48,339Psychological Support at 48,00045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 2H Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – January 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is still not cleared out of its descending sequence.The ongoing correction is actually retracing a big part of this morning's rally. Failing to repass above its 25,000 Pivotal support zone, the mid-term outlook remains bearish for the tech-heavy index.Still, as long as the overall action holds above the 24,500 Range lows (Key Support), the longer-term outlook remains positive.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMomentum Pivot 25,200 to 25,500 +/- 75 pts2H MA 50 and Session highs 25,330Intermediate Resistance 25,700 to 25,850All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,182Support LevelsMinor Support 25,000 to 25,250session lows 24,91324,500 Main supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – January 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView A key test is appearing for the S&P 500 as it tests the lows of its Key session Support area (6,830 to 6,850) – Rebounding here relaunches better prospects.However if things remain like this, sellers could take the lead.Any session close below 6,830 would confirm further downside for the S&P as it forms yet another downward sequence, combined with a bearish 50-200 Moving Average cross in intraday timeframes.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsPivot Zone 6,880 to 6,9004H 200-period MA at 6,887Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH Resistance at 7,000Support LevelsMini-Support 6,830 to 6,850 (testing)6,800 Psychological Support6,789 session lowsSupport 6,720 to 6,750 (Mid-December lows at 6,729)6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

President Trump is beginning his speech at the Davos World Economic Forum.You can get access to his speech right here.The Market is looking anxious around here as it can easily be expected to hear some volatile comments from the President.Expect WEF Headlines throughout the session – US Stock Futures are down (small), Energy assets are rising (particularly Natural Gas) and Gold is exploding yet again, up $100 today for now and heading towards $5,000 while Silver corrects (??!!). zoom_out_map Pre-open Futures – Source: Finviz – January 21, 2026 zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, heading to $5,000. Source: TradingView Read More:The Swissie wins: CHF demand spikes as traders shun the DollarChart alert: AUD/USD bullish breakout above 0.6720 as “sell America” intensifies Safe Trades, keep a close eye on Middle East and Greenland developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Indexes reject their recent highs as Trade uncertainty returns Still, dip-buyers are showing resilience, taking Stock Indexes back higher after a rough post-MLK Day Session open.Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Wise traders usually refrain from trying to make sense of Market movement – And rightfully so.After two consecutive rejection days for US Indexes (and their Futures as Stock Markets were closed yesterday), dip-buyers are coming right back to the Market.Opening 2% below their Friday close on average, Stock Indexes were struggling to find any optimism in the headlines before US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saved the day.His latest comments eased the pessimistic sentiment, saying that he is "urging everyone here to [...] take a deep breath, and let things play out", and not to retaliate against the US. A Passive-aggressive tone from the Treasury secretary, but traders seem to be leaning more to the passive side. Participants seem to take this comment as a guide for yet another TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) in his schemes. My own thesis is that it could be a gigantic farce to distract the world from Iran, but it's just a theory.In case you missed it, Bessent also pinpointed next week as the day the world will learn the President's choice for the next Fed Chair. This will be a key event for upcoming sessions as traders prepare for Earnings Season.In any case, US Stock Futures were down ~1.50% at one point in the morning session and are now coming right back to unchanged – A significant shift in sentiment.US spot Indexes are still down around 1%, catching up with yesterday's red day in futures trading. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:26 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 20, 2026 Intel is one of the only green Stock in today's session – The large Government stake in the company allows it to rebound well. However, looking at the rest of the Market, the picture is bleak.Mag 7s are struggling quite harshly, but things could get better as we near their earnings season – It will of course depend on whether they can beat their high expectations. zoom_out_map Expected Earnings for Mag 7 Stocks – Source: Forbes, Bloomberg Netflix is reporting today after the close, Intel reports on Thursday and for the majority of other Mega Caps, participants will have to await for next Wednesday.We will explore as we dive into our daily session charts and trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:The Swissie wins: CHF demand spikes as traders shun the DollarChart alert: AUD/USD bullish breakout above 0.6720 as “sell America” intensifiesUS Markets fall as Greenland tensions flare – Stock Markets closed for MLK DayDow Jones 4H Chart zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – January 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView The 4H 200-period Moving Average is coming at clutch time to save the day, particularly as Scott Bessent timed his comments well, leading to a 0.80% bounce.Still, bulls will have to push today's session close above the Key Momentum Pivot at 48,870 to push Sentiment higher and confirm the TACO (headlines would tend to follow the rebound).Failing to break above the Pivot Zone points to further downside, where the 48,000 Major Support level could be attained swiftly.Below this, the Dow enters bearish territory.Except for Thursday's PCE data and GDP data, there won't be much other than a de-escalation between the EU and US to pump Markets.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsChristmas ATH High Timeframe Momentum Pivot as Resistance – 481870Session Highs 48,94149,650 to 49,670 Current ATH ResistanceAll-time Highs 49,71050,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport LevelsSession lows and 4H 200-MA 48,530November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 SupportPsychological Support at 48,00045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – January 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView As indicated in our Friday Index analysis, Nasdaq is remaining in a large range between 24,500 and 25,800 since End-November.Now reacting strongly to its 25,000 Mini-Support Zone, bulls will want to confirm the range by retesting at least its newly formed Downward Channel highs (around 25,500).With the 4H 50 and 200-period MAs acting as resistances there, a push beyond would relaunch the Nasdaq to some new highs.Failing to do so could see further profit-taking/ rangebound price action for the Index.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMomentum Pivot 25,200 to 25,500 +/- 75 pts4H MA 50 and 200 at ~25,500Intermediate Resistance 25,700 to 25,850All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,182Support LevelsMinor Support 25,000 to 25,250Session lows 24,97724,500 Main supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – January 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Spoose was showing strong resilience, looking the most favorable technically to its peers.However, things have changed as the Triangle Formation presented on Friday has been broken to the downside, and today's rebound is seeing harsh rejection at its 6,880 Momentum Pivot – The Outlook for the S&P 500 is now bearish.The 4H MA 200 (6,887) will act as Major resistance.Breaking back above brings back bullish hopesA rejection there however could quickly lead to a test of the Mid-December lows at 6,729.Watch the latest headlines to see if they corroborate with more uncertainty or an actual TACO (which would be bullish)S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsPivot Zone 6,880 to 6,9004H 200-period MA at 6,887Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH Resistance at 7,000Support LevelsSession lows 6,8206,800 Psychological SupportSupport 6,720 to 6,750 at Mid-December lows at 6,7296,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

As Macron noted, this trading week initiates what many call the new world disorder – "A world without rules". This shift arguably began with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but the precedent has only deepened. With Trump landing in Davos tomorrow for the WEF, global leaders are voicing strong concerns about the current geopolitical landscape.The latest Board of Peace initiatives from the Trump administration appear designed to further sideline the UN. Consequently, the US Dollar is facing further rejection as market participants diversify away from erratic US policies. Confidence in the Greenback as a stable reserve currency is eroding as fears from 2025 materialize.These fears include tariffs, provocations against allies, and attacks on Federal Reserve independence. Despite the US Economy's and Fed's resilience, capital is flowing away from the Dollar. Gold hit new record highs this morning (to $4,750) as a direct beneficiary. Conversely, the Japanese Yen remains in a steep downtrend driven by debt burdens and rising yields, hence it can't really sustain its safe-haven reputation.In this environment, the Swiss Franc has emerged as the primary safe haven. With SNB rates at 0%, it is also becoming a target for the carry trade. As risk assets like stocks and crypto face rejection alongside the Dollar, the Franc is up another 1% in today's session.Let's explore the multi-timeframe chart analysis for USD/CHF to see where these flows might take the high-volume traded pair. Explore:EUR/USD hints a breakout after latest Trump-Greenland chaosUS Markets fall as Greenland tensions flare – Stock Markets closed for MLK DayChart alert: AUD/USD bullish breakout above 0.6720 as “sell America” intensifiesUSD/CHF Multi-Timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map USD/CHF Daily Chart – January 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/CHF has been stuck in a broader range since July 2025, unable to manage a proper rebound or continue to the downside as the geopolitical and economic dynamics completely eased in the second half.Volatility is now back to some extremes in FX Markets, particularly in a pair normally held in a ~400 pip average daily range – Today's 1.10% max movement took USD/CHF down some monthly lows and prompting a further breakdown.Indeed, the action had completely waned out but bears could retake the upper hand looking at the ongoing themes, combined with a 200-Day Moving Average which just caught up with prices.Sellers also used the 50-Day MA (0.7987) as selling signal and will act as key pivotal indicator for bull/bear action going forward.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map USD/CHF 4H Chart – January 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Dip-buyers are now attempting a retracement from the key support. Still, some key supports which quickly turned into resistances will now have to be breached for a further rebound (without counting a strong turn in current fundamentals).Look for key reactions at the 0.7950 - 0.7960 resistance.Levels of interest for USD/CHF TradingResistance levels0.7925 Minor Pivot0.7950 - 0.7960 Key ResistanceShort-timeframe pivot 0.7990 and 4H 50-period MA (yesterday's highs)Support levels0.79 (+80 pips) 2025 main support (Immediate BounceCurrent Session Lows 0.78782011 support 0.7830 to 0.78602025 Lows 0.78301H Chart zoom_out_map USD/CHF 1H Chart – January 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Looking closer shows how steep the current move is, with dip-buyers re-entering the pair.When watching the current pace of the selloff, mean-reversion is not suprising but might also not be long-lived.A 15 point rally to the 0.7925 Pivot is not far away, and forming a pullback-top here will test the session lows.Below that, the next major point will be found at the 2025 0.7830 lowsIf bulls manage a rebound above, the 0.7950 Resistance looks like a decent entry for sellers to retake the advantageUSD/CHF can really breakout higher only in the event of another Trump TACO.Keep a close eye on the WEF headlines!Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Even with Stock Markets closed in the US, Futures trading brought selling flows as EU-US tensions regarding Greenland mount – The US Dollar also got rejectedEU Leaders are planning emergency meetings even with the World Economic Forum ongoing in DavosUS Dollar, Dow Jones and Gold technical analysis American traders are off today, and it would be easier on them if they were the only ones trading US products (like Canada, for example).Unfortunately, the entire world is trading and selling US products even when traditional markets are closed. That's what it is to represent the global reserve currency.After this weekend's renewed Trump-induced volatility, US assets are falling off a cliff, and for not unjustified reasons.The US President repeated his threats to purchase Greenland for national security, prompting EU leaders to plan an emergency meeting outside the freshly began Davos World Economic Forum (WEF).Threats include not only additional 10% tariffs on major EU partners (including Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland), but also a significant compromise to the NATO alliance.On that aspect, US President Trump and EU President Von Der Leyen haven't planned any meeting during the WEF, a first.US stock Futures, which are trading, albeit on thinner volumes, are getting sold off aggressively, and this isn't helping the US dollar or US Treasuries, which are also getting rejected, pricing in more US risk premium. Stock Markets are closed today in celebration of Martin Luther King Day.Gold and Silver, on the other hand, have gapped higher to new all-time highs.Will this be another TACO? Time will tell, but the US president sure is unpredictable.It could also be a distraction for the ongoing military movements in the Middle East regarding Iran, but it is just a theory for now.Let's take a look at the Dow Jones, Gold, and the US Dollar to spot where things are to start this already volatile week. DiscoverGreenland as the trigger of a new trade warImpact on US-EU tensions: Risk-off, US dollar subdued, heightened demand for Gold and SilverMarkets enter Tension-Mode – Markets Weekly OutlookA look at US Index Futures zoom_out_map US Index Futures Daily Performance – Courtesy of Finviz Despite the Stock Market closure for MLK Day in the US, Index Futures are getting sold off quite harshly since the Globex Open.Higher-Beta Nasdaq futures are getting hit the strongest, down 1.60% at its trough.Dow Jones 4H Chart zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – January 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow (and all other US Indexes) suffered from the news, gapping down harshly at the Sunday open and struggling to form a meaningful bounce.Having broken its short-term momentum area and testing its higher timeframe pivotal support (48,800 to 48,900), the price action is getting close to bearish territory.Consolidating at the session lows opens the chances of a Pivot break, taking the action to a bearish outlookDepending on what news follow, sellers can easily break the 48,300 Support for a quick test of 48,000. More on this as Stock Markets reopen in the US.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsShort-term Pivot 49,200 to 49,300 and 4H 50-MA49,650 to 49,670 Current ATH ResistanceAll-time Highs 49,71050,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport Levelssession lows 48,89548,800 to 48,900 Pivotal Support and November Channel LowsPsychological Support at 48,00045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)US Dollar 4H Chart zoom_out_map US Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart – January 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView After pointing toward some imminent weakness, the US dollar formed a quick turn to the downside, rejecting its 99.50 Pivot Area.Now trading below, the price action is turning bearish, particularly backed by its Upward Channel break and formation of a downtrend. The 4H RSI also confirms a now bearish action.The 98.50 Support is a weak one, nevertheless, check out the reactions around current trading levels to spot if bears manage a push below the 4H 50-MA (99.00).Breaking it should test the 98.00 Support – Look for trade which express such views in FX Major pairs.Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Resistance Levels99.40 to 99.50 Key Pivot2026 Highs 99.49100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance Zone100.376 November highsSupport Levels99.00 4H 50-MA (testing)98.50 to 98.80 Intraday Pivot Zone98.00 Key support (+/- 100 pips)97.40 to 97.80 August Range Support2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 SupportGold 4H Chart zoom_out_map XAU/USD (Gold) 4H Chart – January 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView Gold gapped higher by 1.24% at the Sunday evening open, which then saw an explosion to $4,691, session and all-time high.The price action is now consolidating above around the $4,670 zone, upper bound of the Fib-Induced resistance.As mentioned in our past week analysis, despite the gaps higher to start the week, Metals are forming some profit-taking price action patterns with their momentum slowing down – Their start to 2026 really was fast-paced.Momentum should pick-up if bulls push prices above $4,700.If not, short-term dip-buyers can look at a test of the 4H 50-period Moving Average.Below this, the price action gets more bearish and would point to a larger correction.Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD) trading:Resistance Levels$4,691 Current session and all-time HighPotential Resistance 2 $4,700 to $4,720Top of Daily Channel and Psychological Level $5,000Support Levels4H 50-MA $4,566Previous ATH Pivot (as Support) $4,500 to $4,550Major Intraday Support $4,400 and 200 MADecember 31 Mini-Support Support $4,280Weekly Major Pivot $3,950 to $4,000Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Indexes rebound across the world but anxiety remainsHaving passed a few tests from CPI, PPI and NFP, the uncertain environment is preventing a full-blown bullish momentum.Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 The picture is mixed but red in US stocks today, even after the remarkable turnaround from mid-week turbulence, as prospects of a US intervention in Iran rattled investor sentiment.This week gave participants a lot to work with, hammered by a combination of geopolitical uncertainty and the DOJ's investigation into Chair Powell, which delivered a combo-punch to markets that had been rising in a one-way upside end-December 2025.The geopolitical threat has subsided, but it has definitely not withered away. US President Trump stated in an interview on Wednesday afternoon that the "killing [was] stopping," implying that a US intervention would no longer be necessary. Still, comments from American diplomats suggest a passive-aggressive approach for the time being.As noted in our Oil market analysis from yesterday, while the odds of an intervention before the end of January are still hovering around 30%, the most immediate intervention threats appear to be behind us. zoom_out_map Odds of a US Intervention in Iran before January 31 – Source: Polymarket Traders should still keep a close eye on WTI prices. The fact that Oil is holding above $58.50 suggests the market is retaining an intervention premium. At the same time, Iranian revolts continue – You can see that in the rebound in Oil today (up to $60 at its highs today).Any surprise attack by the US would trigger a strong reaction, likely bearish for equities and bullish for commodities.With the political headwind largely removed, stocks are trading in confusion, far from bearish, as Indexes remain close to all-time highs but can't seem to discount the uncertainty looming across Markets. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:15 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 16, 2026 Except for Product Manufacturing, performing well throughout the week despite the risk-aversion, the rest of the Stock Market picture is red.We will explore as we dive into our daily session charts and trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Why is the US Dollar so strong to start 2026? EUR/USD and Dollar Index overviewMetals correct: Is the uptrend over? Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) OutlookWTI Oil sinks as Iran tensions abate – Where to look now?Dow Jones 4H Chart zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – January 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView After the Dow's huge reversal on Wednesday, confusion remains: Moving Averages are flat-lining (indicating sideways action) and the current session's 4H Candle forms a huge doji.This also comes as bulls couldn't maintain the main 2026 upward trendline.The price action is forming a large range between 49,000 to 49,700 (ATH) which provides clear boundaries for a breakout or breakdown.Breaking above the session highs would surely lead to some new all-time highs. Looking at the current themes, it would mostly happen on some positive news.Except for the Davos Meeting next week, not much is on the line for US data next week.Breaking below the session lows would see a test of the 49,000 Mini-Support zone but below this, the price action will get bearish.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels49,650 to 49,670 Current ATH ResistanceAll-time Highs 49,71050,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport Levelssession lows 49,259Short-term Pivot 49,200 to 49,300 (daily support)49,000 Minor Support48,600 to 48,800 Major Support and November Channel LowsPsychological Support at 48,00045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – January 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is still remaining quite rangebound between 24,500 and 25,800. The issue for bulls at this point is that we are reaching the upper bound of the range and now forming some bearish RSI divergences.On the other hand, the action is remaining resilient as seen with today's rebound from the lows and the forming of a 4H doji. Breaking above (25,760) means further upside a regaining the All-Time Highs.Below (25,450) could see a new test of the December lows around 24,500.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levelsintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 CPI fakeoutSession highs 25,760All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,182Support LevelsMomentum Pivot 25,500 +/- 75 pts – Session lows 25,450Minor Support 25,000 to 25,25024,500 Main supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – January 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is the best looking index overall but also forming indecision patterns.Now in a large triangle formation, similar breakout scenarios can be estimated to put odds on your side:Breaking above (6,980) should easily lead to new all-time highs.Below (6,930) should at least test the Wednesday lows at 6,894. Below this, the action gets more bearish.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsSession highs 6,970Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH Resistance at 7,000Support LevelsPivot Zone 6,880 to 6,900Session lows 6,9306,800 Psychological SupportSupport 6,720 to 6,7506,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Despite what the banks and global analysts say in their 2026 projections, the Dollar has strengthened since the start of the year and shows only few signs of weakening.Of course, we are just halfway through January; there is still plenty of time for things to change. However, the Dollar's trajectory is now looking quite different.The Dollar Index isn't at 110.00 like it was just a year ago, before the Greenback corrected by 10% against all of its major peers – now hanging right around the 100.00 level. Consolidating since mid-July, bears have mostly barked, but the harsh descent seems already over.The reason for that? US economic performance is still beating its competitors despite tariffs, and US firms, particularly in the Tech and AI sectors, are dominant.Despite fears and headlines, American employment is still in a decent spot and has stalled its expected decline, as reflected in recent Jobless Claims and Non-Farm payroll numbers.To add injury to insult, the US Federal Funds Rate is the highest among the majors (except for the Bank of England's Rate, with which it is tied), leaving basis trades well active. zoom_out_map Interest Rates from OECD Countries – Courtesy of TradingEconomics It wasn't just the Greenback that was targeted last year – currency debasement hit all majors, as seen in Gold's performance against the OECD FX Basket.So is the Dollar still in danger? Yes. Policy directives from the Trump Administration can be unpredictable for nations and investors – Look at Canada PM Mark Carney turning to China for a Trade Deal in the absence of such from the US.And of course, the Fed's Independence at stake keeps hurting the Buck's prospects, notably fueling rallies in metals since August, but hasn't shown much change since, even with the latest Powell Investigation from the DOJ.But as long as commodities are still priced in US Dollars, Banks and firms still require Dollar funding, and the US Treasury is still the most liquid, safe-haven asset available, the Dollar can't just disappear from the system – leading to the current market conditions. Finally, with the recent interventions in Venezuela, threats to Iran, the dollar saw demand from Freedom Trade flows.On the other hand, some technical signals could point to a short-term correction in the USD demand.We will look at the Dollar Index and EUR/USD to assess the current state of the Market and whether more upside is warranted for the Dollar after its strong, surprising start to 2026. Read More:Metals correct: Is the uptrend over? Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) OutlookWTI Oil sinks as Iran tensions abate – Where to look now?Chart Alert: Japanese yen short squeeze risk,158.15 key USD/JPY triggerDollar Index Daily Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index Daily Chart, January 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is rallying quite strongly since breaking out of its descending sequence from November.Rebounding in a very consistent uptrend, the DXY has held support and shown no corrections since December 24.However, now reaching the highs of its 99.50 Resistance Zone, momentum is weakening as can be seen on the Daily RSI.Let's see what will tilt the scales on the 4H Chart.4H Chart and Levels of Interest zoom_out_map Dollar Index 4H Chart, January 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView Showing a bear divergence in the 4H timeframe RSI, combined with the reaction to the resistance level, it looks like the Dollar is losing some steam.Still, keep a close eye on the confluence of the 4H 50-MA at 98.96 and the 2026 Channel lows.Breaking that level would point to continued downside and could retest the December 2025 Lows at 97.75.In the event of any intervention in Iran, the Dollar can also spike above to keep that in mind.Overall, the Moving Averages are flatlining in the US Dollar, indicating further consolidation/rangebound action for the time being.Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Resistance LevelsImmediate Resistance 99.25 to 99.502026 Highs 99.49100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance Zone100.376 November highsSupport Levels98.96 4H 50-MA and Channel Lows98.50 to 98.80 Intraday Pivot Zone98.00 Key support (+/- 100 pips)December Lows 97.7597.40 to 97.80 August Range Support2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 SupportEUR/USD 4H chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map EUR/USD 4H Chart, January 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView EUR/USD is showing reactions corroborating with the slowing momentum in the DXY.Bouncing from the 1.16 Support and Channel lows, mean-reversion should hold well towards the 4H 50-MA at 1.1655.Rallying on high volume and candles could easily lead to a break out of the descending channel towards the flatlining 200-Period Moving Average (at 1.17).Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:Resistance Levels1.1630 to 1.1670 Pivot zone (Channel Highs and 4H 50-MA)1.17 4H 200-MA1.1750 mini-resistanceResistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)Support Levels1.1580 to 1.16 Key Support1.1560 Channel lows1.1470 to 1.15 Pivotal Support1.1350 to 1.14 SupportSession lows 1.1593Safe Trades and keep a close eye on Weekend Risk and Headlines!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Intervention risk is rising: USD/JPY stalled near the 159.45–159.75 resistance zone, levels historically linked to BoJ intervention, triggering sharp yen volatility as officials escalated verbal warnings, including the possibility of joint US–Japan action.JPY short squeeze risk is elevated: Speculative positioning in JPY futures has fallen to a one-year low, signalling crowded bearish bets. Any sustained USD/JPY downside could force short covering and amplify yen strength.Near-term technical bias turning lower: Bullish momentum in USD/JPY is fading, with a break below 158.15 likely to trigger a minor bearish reversal toward 157.50–156.12, while only a decisive move above 159.75 would revive upside risk. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart Alert: USD/JPY breaking 158.80 key resistance as US CPI looms with intervention risk”, published on 13 January 2026.The price actions of the USD/JPY have staged the expected push up and hit the lower limit of the first immediate resistance zone of 159.45/159.75 (printed an intraday high of 159.45 on Wednesday,14 January 2026. Coincidentally, it was also the same intraday high of 159.45 on 12 July 2024 that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) last intervened in the FX market to sell down the US dollar.The Japanese yen has been the most volatile among major currencies in the last three trading sessions. The JPY hit an 18-month low against the greenback on Tuesday, 13 January 2026, at 159.17 per US dollar, despite a slew of verbal interventions from Japanese authorities at the start of this week.USD/JPY K-shaped performance evaporated as intervention risk intensified zoom_out_map Fig. 1: 5-day rolling performance of the US dollar against major currencies as of 16 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The “strongest form of verbal intervention” comes in today’s Asia session (Friday, 16 January 2026), where Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama reiterated Tokyo’s readiness to act against excessive yen moves and, for the first time this week, highlighted the possibility of a US-Japan joint intervention in the FX market ahead of a thinning liquidity environment today (ahead of the weekend as well as the closure of US stock market on next Monday, 19 January for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day).The USD/JPY dropped by 0.4% to hit an intraday low of 157.95 and erased its earlier “K-shaped” performance in the FX market before it rebounded slightly to 158.20 at the time of writing (see Fig. 1).JPY futures positioning points to the risk of a short squeeze zoom_out_map Fig. 2: JPY futures large speculators net positions, excluding commercials net positions as of 6 Jan 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) Based on the Commitment of Traders report compiled by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission as of 6 January 2026, the number of large speculators’ net long positions in the JPY futures market, excluding commercials (hedgers) net positions, has declined to a 1-year low at 20,983 contracts (see Fig. 2).Being a contrary opinion indicator, the positioning by large speculators in the JPY futures has skewed towards a significant degree of bearish bias on the JPY, and a minor bullish reversal in the price action of the JPY can amplify the risk of a short squeeze due to “JPY shorts” scrambling to exit in light of the intervention risk as highlighted above.Let’s now highlight the short-term (1 to 3 days) trend bias and key technical levels to watch on the USD/JPY.Bullish momentum is fading for USD/JPY, at risk of minor bearish reversal zoom_out_map Fig. 3: USD/JPY minor trend as of 16 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 4: USD/JPY major and medium-term trends as of 16 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The reintegration back below 158.30/158.35 on the USD/JPY, coupled with the bearish divergence condition and the bearish breakdown of its former parallel ascending support on the 1-hour RSI momentum indicator, suggests that a potential minor bearish reversal is brewing (see Fig. 3).Watch the 159.45/159.75 short-term pivotal resistance on the USD/JPY. A break below 158.15 opens scope for a minor bearish reversal to expose the next intermediate supports at 157.50, 157.00 (20-day moving average), followed by 156.12 (50-day moving average).On the other hand, a clearance above 159.75 invalidates the bearish scenario for a further squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at 160.24/160.35 and 161.00/161.10. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

WTI Crude Oil, currently trading near $59.15 as of January 15, 2026, is under pressure following a sharp reversal and failure to hold the $61.00 level, driven by geopolitical volatility and the evaporation of a risk premium. This technical analysis explores the immediate neutral-to-bearish short-term outlook, while noting significant long-term indicators, such as the oversold monthly Stochastic and a 15-year short extreme in the COT report, which suggest the potential for a substantial bullish trend reversal.Crude oil - Daily chart zoom_out_map Source: Tradingview.com Crude oil daily chart - Past performance is not indicative of future results Market Context & Price Action: WTI Crude oil is currently trading around $59.15, having recently undergone a sharp reversal after failing to sustain a breakout above the $61.00 level. The chart reflects a period of heightened volatility triggered by geopolitical developments (specifically regarding US-Iran tensions) that saw a rapid "risk premium" evaporation.As of June 2025, crude oil has been trading within a descending Channel, as marked by the red lines on the above chart. On Friday, January 9th, 2026, price action broke above the descending channel's upper boundary and has remained above it since. The break took the price above a confluence of resistance, the intersection of the SMA21, the upper channel boundary, and the monthly PP at 57.68. The broken level has now turned into support.​Candlestick Analysis: The most recent daily candle is a large red "marubozu-style" or bearish engulfing candle, indicating intense selling pressure and a rejection of the recent multi-day rally.Monthly Support/Resistance levels: Pivot Point (P) at $57.68. Above that, resistance is firm at $60.37 (R1) and $63.25 (R2). Immediate support lies at $54.81 (S1).Price action broke above a secondary, steeper descending line (blue) and completed a throwback, finding support above the broken level. The fast EMA9 and SMA9 intersect with the blue line, forming an intermediate confluence of support.Gap Analysis: A significant price gap from early November (marked on the chart). Gaps often act as "magnets" for price action, even after they have been filled.Momentum oscillators: RSI (14): Currently at 52.21. This is a neutral reading, showing that the recent overbought conditions have been reset. However, the sharp downward slope of the RSI line indicates potential decelerating momentum.Stochastic (14, 1, 3): The Stochastic Oscillator is at 50.67 and falling. It has fallen below its signal line from a high, confirming short-term weakness.Crude oil - Monthly chart zoom_out_map Source: Tradingview.com Crude oil monthly chart - Past performance is not indicative of future results Applying the Fibonacci retracement (FIB) level to the "V-shaped" recovery from the 2020 lows (green diagonal line), which peaked in 2022 near $123.00, reflects that the current price of $59.22 is situated within a critical technical "battleground" defined by yearly levels. This area (highlighted in the yellow box) is a primary long-term support zone where the price has historically encountered support/resistance. The current price action on the monthly chart suggests a potential double bottom is forming.Momentum Oscillators: A potential positive divergence may be in play, as RSI is making higher lows while price action is making equal lows. (The potential double bottom)Stochastic (14, 1, 3): Sitting at 16.40, the Stochastic is in the oversold territory. Historically, readings this low have often preceded a short-term relief rally or a period of stabilization.Commitment of traders report (COT) zoom_out_map Source: Cotbase.com Commitment of traders - Crude oil COT report The most recent COT report, released on January 9th, 2026, including data up to January 6th, 2026, reflected that the “Managed money” category has reached a 15-year net short position level extreme, and is currently moving towards net long territory, suggesting that a change in sentiment and a reversal may be in play. Producers/Merchants' positioning is also moving towards short after reaching an all-time high, an extreme long position level.Conclusion The technical verdict for WTI Crude Oil is immediately neutral-to-bearish, with the failure to hold above $60.00 and the break below moving averages suggesting the path of least resistance is toward the S1 support level ($54.81). Bulls must secure a daily close back above the Pivot ($57.69) to regain control. This short-term caution, however, is offset by significant long-term indicators: the price is in a critical monthly Fibonacci support zone, the Stochastic oscillator is oversold, and the recent COT report shows a 15-year Managed Money short extreme. Ultimately, while traders should respect the short-term downside risk, the underlying sentiment and monthly chart structure suggest that the current price action may be forming the foundation for a more substantial, long-term bullish trend reversal. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil gives back its Iran-led premium as tensions abateExploring Technical Analysis to see where things currently standLooking at how any possible surprise could affect WTI prices Prices were indeed reaching extremes. Yesterday's surge to $62 was met with a sharp, one-way correction back to the low $59s, with the commodity actually finishing the session lower by 1%.The premium was built on the perception that a US intervention in Iran was imminent.The movement of US Army assets from nearby bases, including Al-Udeid in Qatar, was seen as a concrete sign of incoming action, as these foreign bases could be targets for shorter-range Iranian missiles.However, recent reports suggest that Gulf leaders—including those from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman—persuaded the US President to walk back his threats.The compromise stems from US reluctance to get bogged down in a prolonged war if limited intervention fails to trigger regime change—a risk heavily emphasized by US strategic counselors.Still, the revolts show no signs of easing. The pain for Iranian civilians is real, as they face the weakest Rial in history amidst extreme inflation, power and water outages, and record air pollution.Looking at betting markets, this dynamic is far from over. Odds for an attack before the end of the month still hover around 30%. zoom_out_map Betting Odds of a US intervention in Iran – Source: Polymarket The Trump Admin calls for an emergency UN Security Council meeting regarding the issue. Keep a close eye on the headlines regarding such.We will dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of the WTI (US) Oil to determine potential price levels in the event of an US intervention or lack thereof. Read More:Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Rally: $100K Target in Sight as Institutional Buying SurgesNikkei 225 Forecast: Bullish acceleration above 53,370 key supportBreaking News: UK GDP Expands 0.3% MoM, GBP BidUS Oil Intraday Timeframe AnalysisWTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map WTI Oil 4H Chart – January 15, 2026. Source: TradingView After yesterday's scenario analysis, WTI prices did really respond to the 200-Day Moving Average at $62.40 as the dynamic for an immediate intervention stalled.In event-based trading, it is essential to mark upper and lower bounds for scenarios; From yesterday's example:Breaking above the 200-Day MA implied heightened volatility expectationsRejecting it would mean lower tensionsSo where are we today?Having broken the upward impulse, the premium unwinding is leading to the immediate retest of the July Monthly Bear Channel which provides support and a lower bound for action.Holding the channel highs ($58.50 to $59.30) implies that traders still haven't given up entirely on the eventBreaking below (re-entering the bear channel), translates into an intervention that is not a high-probability event anymore.Any surprise rally above yesterday's highs ($62.41), particularly on high volume and pace, is a trigger to know that the hammer is going down.WTI Technical LevelsLevels to place on your WTI charts:Resistance Levels$60.50 Pivot Zone top$62.40 Past day highs (Above mean tensions)Resistance May 2025 Range $63 to $64Key September Resistance $65 to $66Support Levels$58.50 to $59.30 Break-Retest Zone at Bear Channel Highs (+ 4H 50-MA)$57.70 Friday lows mini supportVenezuela Lows $55.83$55 to $56.50 2025 Support and Channel lows30M Chart and Trading Setups zoom_out_map WTI Oil 30M Chart – January 15, 2026. Source: TradingView Looking closer to short-timeframes, the premium is progressively decreasing in a downward intraday trend – A small bear channel.Breaking below the Iran Premium Support area $58.50 to $59 would be the final level to assume that the event is fully done.However, breaking above the intraday channel however doesn't necessarily mean that the event is fully back: It will depend on the pace of the breakout.With traders exposing themselves again as prices correct, plus a technical break-retest, a rebound here would not be surprising.A slow grind higher could establish a range to $60.50A sudden explosion higher however confirms that things are heating upIn the event of a breakout above the previous day highs, WTI prices could easily go between $65 (conservative) to $80 for the most extreme case.Holding the channel to break below the support would lead to a re-entering of the July bear channel.Safe Trades and Stay in Touch with the Latest News!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin is up 5.59% for the week, driven by institutional consolidation, cooling U.S. inflation, and anticipation of the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act.MicroStrategy significantly grew its holdings by purchasing 13,627 BTC for $1.25 billion.The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act aims to clarify regulation by establishing distinct oversight for digital commodities (CFTC) and centralized assets (SEC)Near-term technical levels point to key support at $95,000 and $92,000, with major resistance at the $100,000 psychological barrier.Most Read: The Iran Risk Premium: WTI Hits $62 as Revolts Continue – US Oil OutlookBitcoin has demonstrated a robust recovery as the world's largest cryptocurrency by market cap has transitioned from a period of speculative volatility into a phase of institutional consolidation and regulatory formalization.The recent Bitcoin rally has come about as a result of converging factors which include a cooling inflationary environment in the United States, and the imminent arrival of a definitive federal regulatory framework via the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act.Bitcoin is up around 5.59% for the week at the time of writing. zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Institutional Treasury Integration and Corporate Accumulation One of the key factors behind the recent rally is the scale of treasury participation. Many public companies have followed MicroStrategy’s lead, using Bitcoin as a standard tool to protect their wealth from inflation.The MicroStrategy StrategyIn early January 2026, MicroStrategy (MSTR) significantly grew its holdings:The Purchase: They bought 13,627 Bitcoin for about $1.25 billion (at roughly $91,519 per coin).The Total: This brought their total stash to 687,410 BTC.The Funding: To pay for this, the company sold roughly $1.13 billion in new stock and raised another $119 million through specialized "preferred" shares.Long-Term StabilityThis isn't just a gamble; it's a calculated financial plan. On January 12, Director Carl Rickertsen showed personal confidence by investing nearly $780,000 of his own money into company shares.Furthermore, MicroStrategy is keeping $2.25 billion in cash on hand to pay its bills and dividends, proving they are prepared for the long haul rather than just betting on price spikes.This trend is mirrored by the performance of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded $697$ million in net inflows on January 5 alone, the highest single-day gain in over three months. These inflows, primarily driven by BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity, suggest that institutional allocators are utilizing ETFs as a "liquidity floor," effectively absorbing sell pressure from retail participants.Legislative Catalysts: The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act Add to this a potential legislative catalyst in the form of a new bill called the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act. This bill aims to stop the confusion between government agencies and create clear rules for the industry.Ending the Turf WarThe bill draws a "bright line" to decide who regulates what:The CFTC: Will oversee "digital commodities" (assets that are decentralized and not controlled by one person).The SEC: Will oversee assets that still rely on a central company, though with simpler rules than traditional stocks.The Fight Over StablecoinsThe biggest argument in the Senate right now is about stablecoin interest:The Ban: Banks are worried that if people can earn high interest on stablecoins, they will pull their money out of traditional bank accounts. Because of this, the bill currently bans paying interest just for holding a stablecoin.The Exceptions: Companies can still offer rewards if the user is actually doing something, like "staking" or using the coin for transactions.The Pushback: Major companies like Coinbase hate these restrictions. They argue the rules are unfair and might force crypto businesses to leave the US.What Comes Next for Bitcoin Prices? Bitcoin is currently in a steady transition phase as the heavy selling seen at the end of 2025 begins to fade.Long-term investors are holding onto their coins more firmly, and institutional buying has stabilized, suggesting the market has successfully absorbed recent price pressure.While the recent climb toward $96,000 was driven more by technical trading maneuvers than a massive wave of new buyers, the overall setup for the first quarter of 2026 looks promising.Given that there is less "sell pressure" and trading remains thin, even a small increase in new demand could trigger a significant price jump. If steady buying from spot markets and ETFs continues, this quiet period could be the foundation for the next major leg up.Technical Analysis - BTC/USD Looking at structure though (on the H4 chart), and price has just printed a higher high before dropping in the Asian session.This could partly be down to profit taking and market participants eyeing consolidation ahead of the next major move.The move lower has led the period-14 RSI to leave overbought territory with a retest of the neutral 50 level now a possibility.Immediate support may be found at 95000 before the 92000 breakout level and 100-day MA resting at 91042 comes into play.A move higher here will have to navigate its way beyond the 100000 and then gain acceptance above this psychological barrier. Beyond that market participants may eye the 103647 and 105000 handles as points of interest.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, January 15, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

After yesterday's not-so-bullish CPI trading (despite a positive report), US Indexes are plummeting.The move reflects overbought conditions amid rising geopolitical tensions and ongoing diversificationExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Yesterday sent a clear warning shot to US Traders: even a positive CPI report—arguably the Fed's primary concern—failed to hold the bid. Indexes finished in the red, leaving sell-the-news hints.And that hesitation is materializing into a full-blown pullback in today's session.Nasdaq is leading US Indexes in their fall, down 1.50% as I write this.After the relentless Freedom Rallies across equities last week, the market shrugged off everything, including the unprecedented investigation into Chair Powell. However, the escalating tensions in Iran are now being used as the pretext for a significant selloff in equities.On paper, the past week rally made perfect sense: record low credit spreads, record high bond issuance (signaling robust economic confidence), and solid earnings from early reporters all supported the bull case.But the tone has shifted. With Oil bouncing above $62—up 10% since the Maduro capture—volatility has returned, and it is rarely an investor's best friend. As JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon noted, geopolitical risk remains the single biggest headwind for equities across asset classes. This focus naturally overshadows Black Swan risks, such as potential credit distress or fears of an AI peak – Keep a close eye on those throughout 2026. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:39 P.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 14, 2026 Looking at the tape today, the Magnificent 7 are taking a hit, with losses ranging from -0.85% for Google to -2.30% for Nvidia. The broader market picture isn't faring much better.Energy stocks are the lone outperformers, profiting from the WTI surge despite high inventory levels. Outside of the oil patch, capital is rotating strictly into defensive havens, with Household Products and select Healthcare names holding the line.Let's dive into our daily intra-session charts and trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:The Iran Risk Premium: WTI Hits $62 as Revolts Continue – US Oil OutlookBitcoin and Altcoins Breakout as Stock Market Momentum Fades – BTC, ETH and SOL OutlookChart Alert: Silver (XAG/USD) resumes accelerated uptrend, US$90.90 upside trigger to watchDow Jones 4H Chart zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – January 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones is suddenly turning bearish after yesterday's All-Time High fakeout.Now breaking its 2026 rising channel and passing below its 4H 50-Period MA, momentum is turning bearish – Confirmed with the descending RSI.As the selloff attempts to ram through the 49,000 Psychological, look at the November Channel lows:Bouncing from there could provide a decent dip-buying opportunity if sentiment gets betterThe Channel and 48,600 Support Zone breaks, hinting at pursued downside (which could lead to 45,000 being retested)Still far but this scenario is rising in probability. Be careful for extreme long positions.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels49,151 4H 50-MA Short-term Resistance 49,200 to 49,30049,650 to 49,670 Current ATH Resistance46,710 All-Time Highs50,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport Levels48,600 to 48,800 Major Support and November Channel LowsPsychological Support at 48,00045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – January 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView The picture is looking very grim for Nasdaq despite its stronger performance yesterday:Bears are now fully in control after a double top fakeout at the CPI release and a break of its 2026 upward trendline.Looking out, it seems that the Nasdaq is stuck in a 24,700 to 25,800 large consolidation, but as Supports are breaking, keep a close eye on Higher Timeframe charts to see if things materialize into something worse.On the immediate picture, the selloff is showing oversold on the 4H CPI – Hence, look at whether a pullback higher comes at the 25,500 Minor Support or if lower consolidation points to continued downside.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels4H MA 200 (25,480)intermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 FakeoutMomentum Pivot 25,500 +/- 75 ptsSession highs 25,877All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,182 Support LevelsMinor Support 25,000 to 25,250 (immediate test)25,850 Mini Support24,500 Main supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – January 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView Now rejecting its 7,000 new Major All-Time Highs, the S&P 500 picture is also looking grim.Bulls will face a key test at the 6,880 to 6,900 Psychological Pivot after breaching the 4H 50-MA (6,935).Breaking below will lead to a fully bearish price action.Holding there would hint at a simple yet scary retracement.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels4H 50 MA at 6,935Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH Resistance at 7,000Support LevelsPivot Zone 6,880 to 6,900Session lows 6,8936,800 Psychological SupportSupport 6,720 to 6,7506,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil explodes higher from Iran tensions and supply fearsExploring Technical Analysis for a rally in the commodityWTI faces headwinds of catalysts across the globe, with Venezuela and the Middle East 2026 is shaping up to be a chaotic year for traders.Between record corporate issuance signaling high-paced economic activity, the US capture of a head of state in Venezuela (combined with threats to other nations), and now revolts in Iran, geopolitics has firmly taken the lead in driving volatility.Our recent edition on Black Gold suggested that despite higher supply expectations following the Maduro capture—which pointed toward better exploitation of Venezuela's vast reserves—structural catalysts would emerge to prevent a slide to fresh 2025-2026 lows.And emerge they did.The biggest catalyst, of course, is the turmoil in Iran.Despite sanctions from OECD countries, Iran remains a critical supplier to the world's largest consumers, particularly China, which regularly absorbs 80% to 90% of the nation's ~4M barrels per day production.The risk premium, however, extends beyond simple production figures which haven't shown much change for now.Iran holds immense strategic leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point they have used to block oil tankers and global sea traffic in the past.This threat adds a geographic premium to the price of every barrel, even if domestic production continues uninterrupted.Looking back to the "12-Day War," WTI surged from $62 to $76 in a matter of days. With that precedent in mind, traders are actively positioning themselves for a potential price explosion.Looking back to the 1979 revolution, participants fear that Oil workers may join the Revolt, as the Iranian government already killed an estimated +10,000 civilians in the protests.Let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of the WTI (US) Oil to determine if technicals point to continued upside or if prices are approaching relative extremes. Read More:Chart Alert: Silver (XAG/USD) resumes accelerated uptrend, US$90.90 upside trigger to watchBitcoin and Altcoins Breakout as Stock Market Momentum Fades – BTC, ETH and SOL OutlookChart Alert: Gold (XAU/USD) on the brink of bullish acceleration, US$4,780 nextUS Oil Multi-Timeframe AnalysisWTI Daily Chart zoom_out_map WTI Oil Daily Chart – January 14, 2026. Source: TradingView WTI has officially broken out of its major descending channel that led the price action from after the 12-War to the current rally.Now forming a tight-bull daily channel, bears have disappeared from the immediate action as the risk-premium takes over.A tight bull channel occurs when green candles succeed one after the other. The pattern breaks if a bear candle closes below the previous.There won't be anything to stop the rally until the 200-Day Moving Average at $62.43.To see what the next step will be:Can bulls manage a break above the 200-Day MA? To assume so, look for a daily close above the indicatorA break without retest would point to even more bull pressureWill sellers re-appear at the MA? If they do so, look for long entries at the Pivot Zone retest ($60.00 to $60.50)WTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map WTI Oil 4H Chart – January 14, 2026. Source: TradingView Reactions will be interesting around here as the price action reaches overbought levels on the 4H RSI.The morning rally is stalling slightly which prompts either consolidation or retracement – No retracements hints at further one-way continuation.In the event of a correction, look at $60.80 for short-term entries, lows of the Tight Bull Channel.WTI Technical LevelsLevels to place on your WTI charts:Resistance Levels$62.13 Session Highs$62.43 200-Day MA (to break for real breakout)Next Resistance May 2025 Range $63 to $64Key September Resistance $65 to $66Support Levels$60.80 Aggressive Support (intraday)$60.50 Pivot Zone retest Support$59 Pivot Zone lows$55 to $56.50 2025 Support and Channel lows30M Chart and Trading Setups zoom_out_map WTI Oil 30M Chart – January 14, 2026. Source: TradingView The rally is stalling and consolidating at its relative highs. With the action rangebound on short-timeframes, remain patient for these three signs:30M RSI corrects back to the Neutral Level (40)Bulls manage to break above session highs ($62.13) with volume, pointing to a 200-Day MA test – Very bullish aboveBreaks manage a correction to $60.80Breaking below would lead at least to $60.00Safe Trades and Stay in Touch with the Latest News!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (14/01/2026): Join us today as TraderNick and Jonny discuss the Supreme Court's vote on the legality of tariffs and the knock-on effect on the US dollar. Amongst other topics, we also reflect of recent worldwide equity performance, the health of the current rally and prediction for 2026. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Gold breaks into price discovery: XAU/USD reversed sharply from a shallow pullback, cleared its prior all-time high, and is now entering a bullish acceleration phase, with US$4,780 emerging as the next upside target if momentum holds.Macro backdrop strongly supportive: Softer US labour data, cooler-than-feared core inflation, rising geopolitical risk, and mounting concerns over Fed independence are reinforcing demand for gold as a defensive asset.Technical and intermarket signals align: Gold remains firmly above its rising 20- and 50-day MAs, momentum is constructive, and capped US real yields are reducing opportunity costs, supporting further upside as long as US$4,512 holds. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart Alert: Gold (XAU/USD) is losing bullish momentum below US$4,500, bearish reversal next”, published on 7 January 2025.The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have only done a shallow, minor corrective pull-back towards the first immediate support zone of US$4,430/4,403 (printed an intraday low of US$4,407 on last Thursday, 8 January 2025.Thereafter, the yellow metal underwent a bullish reversal and surged above its prior all-time high of US$4,550, set on 26 December 2025. In today’s Asia session, 14 January 2026, it traded firmer, rallied by 0.8% to hit another intraday all-time high of US$4,639 on the time of writing.These are the four key near-term supporting macro factors A soft US labour market (non-farm payroll for December missed expectations).US inflation is not as red hot as feared (US core CPI for December came in below that expected on both m/m and y/y).Fed’s independence at stake; after a surprising US Department of Justice’s criminal charge being slapped on Fed Chair Powell, in a possible attempt to remove him as a Fed Governor after his chairmanship ends in May.Rising geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East arising from Iran’s civil unrest, which may lead to regime change with involvement from the US.Let us now decipher the next short-term movement in Gold (XAU/USD) based on a technical analysis perspective.Short-term trend bias (1 to 3 days): Bullish acceleration zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 14 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 2: 10-year US Treasury real yield major trend with Gold (XAU/USD) as of 14 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the US$4,512 key short-term pivotal support on Gold (XAU/USD). A clearance above US$4,645 increases the odds of a bullish acceleration towards the next intermediate resistances at US$4,684/4,687, US$4,720, and US$4,774/4,780 (Fibonacci extension clusters) (see Fig. 1).On the flip side, a break and an hourly close below US$4,512 negates the bullish tone to open up scope for another round of minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate support zone at US$4,430/4,403 (also the rising 20-day moving average).Key elements to support the bullish bias Price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) remain in a constructive minor and medium-term uptrend phases as it continues to trade above its rising 20-day and 50-day moving averages.The hourly RSI momentum indicator of Gold (XAU/USD) is holding above a parallel ascending trendline at the 50 level, which suggests a potential short-term bullish condition.Intermarket analysis: Since 10 December 2025, the 10-year US Treasury real yield (after subtracting the 10-year US breakeven rate that measures US inflationary expectations in the next 10 years) has been capped by its 200-day moving average and a key medium-term resistance at the 1.87% level. These observations suggest that opportunity costs of holding gold are unlikely to see upside pressure, in turn, increasing the demand for gold (see Fig. 2). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.