The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%. I noted the strength of the RMB yesterday:China yuan hits 14-month high even as weak consumer demand clouds economic growth outlookIndustrial output grew 4.8% year-on-year in November, slowing slightly from October and undershooting market expectations. Retail sales, a key gauge of household demand, decelerated more sharply, rising just 1.3%, down from 2.9% the previous month and well below forecasts. The figures reinforce signs that China’s recovery remains uneven and heavily reliant on the supply side: Evidence of fragile consumption continues to mount. Passenger car sales slumped 8.5% in November, the steepest decline in ten months, while the extended Singles’ Day online shopping festival failed to generate the usual boost in spending.Yesterday's close at 7.0482 was reflective of the sustained RMB bid. Today's mid-rate, at 7.0602, is the strongest setting (for CNY) since October 9 last year. PBOC injected 135.3bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at an unchanged rate of 1.40%---China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours.Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s private sector ended 2025 on a firmer footing, with business activity continuing to expand despite softer momentum and persistent weakness in manufacturing, according to the latest flash PMI data from S&P Global.The headline Flash Japan Composite PMI Output Index eased to 51.5 in December from 52.0 in November, remaining above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction for a ninth consecutive month. While the pace of growth slowed from a three-month high, the reading still pointed to a modest expansion in overall activity at a rate stronger than the post-pandemic average.At the sector level, services remained the primary driver of growth. The Services PMI Business Activity Index slipped to 52.5 from 53.2, signalling continued but slower expansion. Manufacturing conditions remained under pressure, though signs of stabilisation emerged. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7 from 48.7, indicating contraction persisted but eased to its mildest pace in around 18 months.New business returned to growth at the composite level following two months of decline, marking the strongest increase since August. Services demand improved modestly, while the downturn in manufacturing sales softened significantly, suggesting goods demand may be approaching a turning point. In contrast, new export orders declined again, reflecting continued weakness in overseas demand for manufactured goods, partially offset by marginal improvements in services exports.Improving domestic demand conditions supported a stronger increase in employment. Overall staffing levels rose at the fastest pace since May 2024, with job creation accelerating across both manufacturing and services. Despite higher headcounts, outstanding business increased at the fastest rate in two-and-a-half years, driven largely by rising backlogs in the services sector, highlighting capacity constraints.Business confidence remained positive but softened into year-end. Firms continued to expect output growth in 2026, though optimism fell from November, particularly among manufacturers. Survey respondents cited global economic uncertainty, demographic challenges and rising costs as key risks to the outlook.Cost pressures intensified further, with input price inflation reaching its highest level in eight months across both sectors. Companies responded by lifting selling prices at solid rates, underscoring persistent inflationary pressures in Japan’s private sector.---The PMI data reinforce the Bank of Japan’s cautious but increasingly hawkish policy bias. Services-led growth, accelerating employment and intensifying cost pressures support the case that underlying inflation dynamics remain firm enough to justify gradual policy normalisation. However, the continued contraction in manufacturing, weak export demand and softer business confidence argue against an aggressive tightening path. For the BOJ, the survey aligns with a strategy of incremental adjustment rather than abrupt moves, reinforcing expectations that any further policy steps will be carefully calibrated and data-dependent.The BoJ meet on Thursday and Friday this week (18 and 19 December), a 25bp interest rate rise is widely expected. For the yen, the PMI report offers a mixed signal. Rising domestic price pressures and stronger job growth are marginally supportive for JPY via the policy channel, but ongoing manufacturing weakness and subdued external demand limit upside. As a result, yen performance is likely to remain dominated by global rate differentials, particularly U.S. yields, rather than domestic activity data alone. Absent a clear shift in BOJ communication, PMI trends are unlikely to trigger a sustained JPY move, leaving the currency sensitive to swings in global risk sentiment and U.S. monetary policy expectations. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets.China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours.Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations.Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks.As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand’s Debt Management Office (NZDMO) has trimmed its near-term bond issuance plans, offering modest relief to the government bond market even as borrowing needs remain elevated over the medium term.In an update released Tuesday, the NZDMO said it will issue NZ$35 billion of government bonds in the 2025/26 fiscal year, down NZ$3 billion from the NZ$38 billion projected in the May Budget. The reduction reflects improved cash flows and a reassessment of near-term funding requirements, easing immediate supply pressures in the domestic bond market.The adjustment is likely to be viewed positively by investors, particularly following a period of heavy issuance that has weighed on demand and contributed to elevated yields across the curve. A smaller funding task in the coming fiscal year reduces rollover risk and may help stabilise longer-dated government bond yields, especially if demand from offshore investors remains supportive.However, the NZDMO also lifted its four-year gross bond issuance forecast through June 2029 to NZ$135 billion, up from NZ$132 billion previously outlined. The upward revision underscores that while near-term borrowing needs have eased, the government’s longer-term funding requirements remain substantial, reflecting ongoing fiscal pressures, infrastructure spending and higher debt-servicing costs.From a policy perspective, the updated issuance profile arrives at a sensitive juncture for financial markets, with investors closely assessing the interaction between fiscal settings and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy outlook. Reduced bond supply in 2025/26 could marginally ease financial conditions, complementing any future easing bias from the RBNZ should inflation continue to moderate.Nevertheless, the higher medium-term issuance outlook suggests supply will remain a structural feature of the New Zealand government bond market. Investors are likely to remain selective, focusing on yield compensation and curve dynamics as fiscal consolidation progresses only gradually.Overall, the NZDMO’s update signals short-term relief for bond supply, but reinforces the reality of sustained borrowing needs in the years ahead. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian consumer confidence fell sharply in December, reversing the tentative improvement seen the previous month, as renewed concerns over inflation and interest rates weighed on household sentiment, according to the latest Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey.The headline Consumer Sentiment Index fell 9.0% to 94.5, unwinding much of November’s 12.8% surge and pushing the index back below the neutral 100 level, signalling that pessimists once again outnumber optimists. While confidence has improved materially from the deep troughs of 2024, the latest reading underscores the fragility of sentiment and the difficulty in sustaining a move into outright optimism.The December pullback was broad-based. Views on the economic outlook and family finances deteriorated, while expectations around mortgage rates turned sharply more negative, highlighting the sensitivity of households to inflation and monetary policy developments. Homebuyer sentiment also weakened, with expectations for house price gains pared back, suggesting higher borrowing costs continue to constrain housing-related confidence.The survey’s quarterly news recall questions shed further light on the drivers behind the decline. Inflation remained the most frequently recalled topic, with the tone decisively negative. Around 78% of respondents viewed inflation-related news as unfavourable, following upside surprises in Q3 inflation data and a strong initial read from the full monthly CPI in October.Interest rate news also weighed more heavily on sentiment. 64% of respondents assessed coverage as unfavourable, a marked increase from September and June, reflecting growing concern that rates may remain higher for longer. News related to domestic economic conditions and employment was similarly viewed more negatively than three months earlier.In contrast, international developments played a smaller role. Recall of global news fell to its lowest level this year, while the tone improved to its least unfavourable since June, partly reflecting easing trade tensions among Australia’s major trading partners.Despite the overall deterioration, consumers remained broadly unfazed about labour market prospects, suggesting that employment stability continues to provide a partial buffer against cost-of-living pressures. Overall, the survey points to an Australian consumer that is no longer deeply pessimistic, but still cautious and highly sensitive to inflation and interest rate risks heading into 2026.---The sharp pullback in consumer sentiment is mildly negative for the Australian dollar at the margin, reinforcing expectations that domestic demand will remain constrained into 2026. For rates, the survey supports a cautious RBA stance, with weaker household confidence playing off against offsetting inflation risks, limiting the urgency for further tightening. As a result, AUD is likely to remain more sensitive to global drivers, particularly U.S. rates, risk sentiment and China-related news, than to domestic data in the near term, while front-end rate pricing should stay anchored around a prolonged hold scenario. The Reserve Bank of Australia does not meet again until 2-3 February next year, with expectations for rate hikes next year firming up somewhat:Citi forecasts 2 RBA rate hikes in 2026, February followed by May, as inflation risks rise This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This Silver technical analysis combines price action, VWAP behavior, and proprietary orderFlow Intel decision support to assess whether the recent consolidation is a pause before continuation or a warning sign of trend exhaustion.While many traders focus only on candles and indicators, orderFlow Intel looks beneath the surface, helping identify whether buying and selling pressure is actually effective. In silver’s case, the underlying dynamics point to buyer control rather than distribution.Silver price action shows acceptance, not rejectionSilver futures built an important base earlier this month near $59.20 to $59.30, which coincided with a prior value area low. Once price moved higher from that zone, it never returned to test it again. That behavior often signals strong demand and early accumulation.As silver pushed into the low $60s, the market began forming value above $60.90, a prior point of control. During the sharp selloff on December 12, price dropped quickly but stalled near $61.00 to $61.05, printing a higher value area low rather than breaking into older value zones. The rebound from that area was fast and decisive.This pattern is typical of long liquidation rather than the start of a sustained bearish trend.Silver futures VWAP analysis highlights institutional reference levelsVWAP behavior adds another important layer to this Silver technical analysis.Key observations include:VWAPs from December 11 and December 12 converged near $63.20, creating a strong reference zone.Recent pullbacks respected VWAP or the first lower VWAP deviation around $62.90 to $63.00.The current session value area low is near $63.25, which sits above the prior VWAP cluster.When price holds above overlapping VWAPs from multiple sessions, it often reflects institutional positioning rather than short-term speculation. This is especially relevant when pullbacks are shallow and quickly defended.What orderFlow Intel reveals beneath the chartTraditional charts show where price moved. OrderFlow Intel helps explain why it moved and whether that move is likely to persist.Recent data shows several important dynamics:Selling pressure increased during the December 12 drop, but it failed to generate sustained downside follow-through.As price stabilized, buyer participation became more efficient, meaning silver moved higher without requiring outsized volume.During the latest session, activity increased near $63.80 to $64.00, yet sellers were unable to force acceptance below VWAP support.This combination suggests absorption of selling rather than distribution. In many market tops, volume rises while progress slows. Here, price continues to make progress with relatively controlled participation, which is a constructive signal.Key resistance and support levels for Silver futuresSilver is currently consolidating just below a notable prior value area high near $64.15. This level represents a natural decision zone where profit-taking and new positioning often occur.Levels to monitor:Resistance: $64.15. Sustained acceptance above this level would favor further value expansion.Support: $63.20 to $63.25. This VWAP and value area cluster is critical for maintaining the bullish structure.How silver behaves around these zones matters more than short-term intraday fluctuations.OrderFlow Intel prediction scoreBullish bias score: +7 (max bullish score is 10)This score reflects a constructive outlook supported by:Higher value area lows following liquidationConsistent defense of VWAP and deviation levelsImproving efficiency of buying pressure on pullbacksThe score is not extreme, as silver has not yet confirmed a clean breakout above $64.15, but it indicates a favorable risk environment for the bullish case.What would change the Silver outlookThe bullish Silver technical analysis would need reassessment if:Price sustains below the $63.20 VWAP clusterDownside momentum expands rather than stabilizing quicklyPullbacks begin to show deeper acceptance into prior value areasUntil then, the underlying structure remains supportive.Silver technical analysis takeawaySilver is not behaving like a market rolling over. Price action, VWAP structure, and orderFlow Intel all point to buyers defending higher value and managing pullbacks with discipline. This is the type of environment where breakouts tend to emerge from consolidation rather than sharp reversals.OrderFlow Intel does not predict markets. It provides decision support by highlighting whether buying and selling pressure is effective or being absorbed. In silver’s case, the evidence currently favors continuation rather than exhaustion.This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. Traders and investors should conduct their own research and manage risk according to their strategy. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The tone around the ceasefire talks in Ukraine genuinely appears to be improving.We've been here before so it's tough to say whether this is real progress on yet-another headfake. Only time will tell but Trump's comments today are encouraging:Good conversation with European leadersLong discussion, and things are seemingly going wellHad a long talk with ZelenskyWe had numerous conversations with President PutinEuropean leaders want to get it endedGermany's Merz also sounded unusually upbeat today. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Early downside move tests key supportThe USDJPY moved lower during the Asia-Pacific session, briefly breaking below the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 155.29. That downside probe echoed last Thursday’s price action, when the pair also slipped below the same moving average, only to quickly rotate higher. In that prior move, upside momentum stalled near the falling 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, showing that buyers had their chance above resistance and couldn’t follow through—just as sellers failed to extend below support.Yields contribute to the dip, but momentum fadesToday’s early weakness was helped by a pullback in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield initially down close to 5 basis points before retracing much of that move. It is now down around 1.4 basis points, reducing the downward pressure on USDJPY. As yields stabilized, the currency pair found buyers at lower levels.Swing area holds as price snaps back above the 200-bar MAFrom a technical standpoint, the session low pushed into a familiar swing area between 154.78 and 155.04, where buyers have previously shown interest. That support held, prompting a rebound that lifted USDJPY back above the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (155.29). With price now trapped between the 100-bar and 200-bar moving averages, the pair has returned to neutral territory, reflecting indecision rather than trend conviction.Neutral range sets the stage for the next breakWith a new trading day approaching, the opportunity for a directional break remains open—either higher through resistance or lower through support. What tips the balance is likely to be macro catalysts rather than pure technicals, given the tight range and failed breaks on both sides over the past several sessions.Heavy data calendar raises volatility riskThe economic calendar is packed this week, increasing the odds of a decisive move. In the U.S., markets will digest the November jobs report (expected +50K), along with retail sales and CPI, all of which could either lift the dollar or push it lower depending on the outcomes. In Japan, attention turns to the Bank of Japan policy decision on Friday, where expectations are leaning more toward a 25-basis-point hike—a potential volatility trigger for JPY pairs.Watch the video analysisIn the video above, Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends, walks through the real-time technical setup driving USDJPY. He highlights where risk is defined, explains how to interpret the repeated moving-average failures, and maps out the next targets that matter most as the pair waits for its next shove. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

If you followed the Barron's playbook last year, you’re probably sitting pretty right now.The publication has just released their scorecard for their 2025 stock picks, and the results are good. In a market environment that had plenty of chop, their basket of 10 stocks delivered a total return of 27.9%, nearly doubling the S&P 500’s respectable 15.3% return over the same period.Here is the breakdown of how their 10 picks in 2025 performed and, more importantly, where they are betting for 2026.Big Tech and China led the way in 2025The outperformance was driven by massive moves in heavy hitters. The standout winner was Alibaba (BABA), which ripped 81.0% higher, followed closely by Alphabet (GOOGL) at 67.5%.It wasn't all tech as financials played a big role, with Citigroup (C) rallying almost 60%.The winners:Alibaba (BABA): +81.0%Alphabet (GOOG): +67.5%Citigroup (C): +59.8%ASML Holding (ASML): +58.5%UBER +37.0%It certainly wasn't a perfect strike rate. Moderna (MRNA) shed 32.2%, while Everest Group (EG) dipped roughly 11%. But when your winners win this big, you can afford a few duds.The 2026 Picks: Betting on "Laggards Leading"For the year ahead, Barron's is pivoting hard. If 2025 was about growth and recovery, 2026 looks like a deep value, contrarian play. Is that a warning to be defensive?The theme for the new list is explicitly "Laggards Leading," with a distinct value bent. A glance at the list shows they are fishing in beaten-down waters—several of these names are sitting on significant negative YTD returns.The Top 10 Picks for 2026:Amazon (AMZN): The odd one out in a value list? Maybe, but it’s the anchor here.Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY): Down 9.5% recently, but paying a hefty 4.9% dividend.Comcast (CMCSA): A true contrarian pick. Down 26.5% YTD with a 4.8% yield and trading at 6.7x 2026 earnings.Exxon Mobil (XOM): Energy remains a staple. It's curiously rallied lately despite falling oil prices.Fairfax Financial (FRFHF): The Canadian holding company is actually up 27.3% YTD, bucking the "laggard" trend of the list. Still at only 10.2x earningsFlutter Entertainment (FLUT): Betting on the gambler? The stock is down 15.5%.Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS): Flat performance recently, pure asset play.SL Green Realty (SLG): The scariest chart on the list? Down nearly 35% YTD, but yielding a massive 7.0%. This is a direct bet on a commercial real estate turnaround.Visa (V): A defensive growth play trading at roughly 25x earnings. Long a hedge fund favorite.Walt Disney (DIS): The Mouse House is down slightly YTD, trading at a reasonable 16.5x forward earnings.The Bottom LineThis is a defensive, high-yield pivot compared to the 2025 list. Barron's is betting that the high-flyers will cool off and capital will rotate into the dogs of the market—specifically real estate (SLG), media (CMCSA, DIS), and pharma (BMY).With yields on some of these names pushing 5-7%, they are clearly positioning for a market where total return comes from income rather than just multiple expansion. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

If you've been watching the Canadian curve steepen with bets on Bank of Canada hikes, CIBC has a message for you: Not so fast.Following the November CPI release earlier today, CIBC’s Andrew Grantham is out with a note pouring cold water on the recent hawkish repricing in the market. While headline inflation held steady at 2.2%, Grantham argues the details don't support the aggressive pricing for hikes we've seen creeping into the strip before the end of 2026.The "Push and Pull" keeps the Bank on holdGrantham describes the current environment as a "push and pull" dynamic. You have the "push" of stronger food and gasoline prices—grocery costs just saw their biggest monthly jump since March —being offset by the "pull" of softer core inflation.That leaves the Bank of Canada in a bind, but a stable one.Key takeaways from CIBC:The Sweet Spot (sort of): Underlying inflation is sitting around 2.5%. That is still "too high" to justify any further interest rate cuts right now.The Pushback: However, the data isn't hot enough to validate the market's recent pricing for rate hikes. Pricing is currently at 12% for a hike in September or sooner with one hike at 92% by year end.Volatility Ahead: Don't get chopped up by headline volatility in the coming months. Grantham warns that base effects from last year's GST/HST holiday will make the headline numbers noisy, even as core measures (excluding tax changes) likely continue to ease.The bottom line from CIBC is that the Bank of Canada is locked into a "prolonged pause". That's likely to make the Fed side of the equation more meaningful for USD/CAD.They continue to forecast the overnight rate holding steady at the current 2.25% level throughout the entirety of next year. Bond yields and the Loonie drifted marginally lower on the print, suggesting traders are already starting to unwind some of those hike bets. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The NZDUSD moved higher last week, and in the process extended above its 100-day moving average, signaling an improvement in the near-term technical picture. The upside push carried the pair toward the lower boundary of a key swing area between 0.5830 and 0.5844, an area that has acted as resistance in the past. Sellers leaned against that zone, limiting upside follow-through and forcing a pullback into the end of the week.Sellers defend resistance, buyers protect supportAs the week progressed, selling pressure pushed the pair back toward the 100-day moving average, which acted as a magnet for price action. In early trading today, the downside extended further, with NZDUSD sliding toward the upper boundary of a prior swing area between 0.5748 and 0.57609. The low reached 0.5765, just above that support zone, before buyers stepped in and sparked a rebound.Natural resistance caps the rebound near 0.5800The bounce off support has so far been contained by natural resistance near 0.5800, an area that also coincides closely with the 100-day moving average. That confluence has once again proven difficult to overcome, with price stalling near the level and reinforcing its importance as a short-term dividing line between bullish and bearish control.Short-term range battle mirrors AUDUSDLike AUDUSD, NZDUSD is currently caught between nearby support and resistance, with neither buyers nor sellers able to assert sustained control. Buyers continue to defend dips toward the mid-0.57 area, while sellers remain active on rallies toward the 0.5800–0.5840 region. The tightening range suggests the market is coiling, as traders wait for the next decisive push to set direction.Bottom lineNZDUSD sits at a technical crossroads. Holding above the 0.5748–0.5761 support zone keeps buyers engaged, while a break back above the 100-day moving average and the 0.5830–0.5844 resistance area would tilt the bias more decisively higher. Until one of those levels gives way, range-bound trade and patience are likely to dominate the near-term outlook.Watch the Video AnalysisIn the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) break down the technical factors driving this move in real-time. I outline exactly where the risk lies, how to interpret these moving average bounces, and map out the next targets that matter most for the NZD/USD currency pair.Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The New York Fed Pres. Williams is speaking and says:Very supportive” of the U.S. central bank’s decision to cut interest rates last weekExpects coming job data will show gradual coolingToo early to say what the Fed will need to do in JanuaryStrong markets are part of the reason why the economy will grow robustly in 2026Market valuations are elevated, but there are reasons for current pricingWhat constitutes ample reserves will change over timeSome signs that parts of the underlying economy are not as strong as GDP data suggestsAmple reserves system is working very wellFinancial system is basically at an ample-reserves levelOverall policy takeaway: Bias is mildly dovish and balanced. Williams clearly supports the recent rate cut and points to gradual labor-market cooling and pockets of underlying economic softness. At the same time, his comments on strong markets and robust growth expectations for 2026 keep the message firmly data-dependent rather than strongly dovish.Earlier today, WIlliam's said that policy is well positioned for what lies ahead, as risks to the labor market have risen while risks to inflation have eased. He characterized tariffs as a one-off price adjustment that should not spill over into broader inflation and said uncertainty around tariffs has declined notably. Williams expects inflation to ease to 2.5% in 2026 and reach 2% in 2027, while projecting GDP growth of about 2.25% in 2026, well above the pace expected for 2025. On the labor side, he sees gradual cooling, but also projects the unemployment rate will decline over the next few years, framing the Fed’s baseline outlook as “a pretty good outcome.” He noted that Fed policy has moved closer to neutral from a modestly restrictive stance, though inflation remains too high, suggesting no strong signal for imminent action even as markets price some chance of a January rate cut and multiple cuts in 2026. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Gold has been an incredible ride this year, up 64% year-to-date. Silver has nearly doubled that return and gold equities are up a massive 130%. Naturally, after a run like that, the "take profit" crowd is starting to get loud.However, Scotiabank released a note this morning titled "Here's Why We Don't Give Up on the Gold Trade," arguing that they remain Overweight on the sector and see further upside ahead.Their main argument? The "broad and synchronized" tailwinds that fueled this rally are unlikely to reverse next year.Here are the 6 catalysts Scotiabank is watching:The Debt Spiral: This is the big one. US debt now stands at $37.6 trillion, up 65% in just five years. With no plan to return to fiscal equilibrium, government debt is expected to keep rising.Crypto Demand (Yes, really): A new whale has entered the chat. Stablecoins backed by physical gold are driving demand, with reports estimating Tether has already hoarded over 120 tons of gold to back its token.Fed Independence Risks: Markets are jittery about the Fed. If Trump appoints a dovish Chair, it could erode confidence in US institutions and intensify selling pressure on the dollar—a classic setup for gold.Trade Wars 2.0: With USMCA up for renewal next year and China negotiations continuing, elevated trade uncertainty is keeping the safe-haven bid alive.Weaker Dollar: Scotiabank remains bearish on the USD overall, viewing further declines as a direct boost for metals."But isn't it overextended?"It feels like it, but historically? Maybe not.6) Scotiabank notes that while the recent run is amazing, it's not unprecedented. They point to the late 1970s, where gold prices rose more than 6-fold and silver rose 9-fold. By that metric, this bull market might just be getting started.From a valuation perspective, gold equities are actually trading cheaper than previous peaks. The sector is currently at ~7x EV/Fwd EBITDA, compared to valuations of over 10x observed back in 2010/2011.The Play:Scotiabank notes that many investors are actually still Underweight because they feel uncomfortable chasing a 60% rally. If you're looking for equity exposure, their top picks (all rated Sector Outperform) are Kinross Gold (KGC), OceanaGold (OGC), and DPM Metals (DPM) This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The AUD/USD currency pair faced immediate selling pressure during early Asian-Pacific trading today, drifting lower to test the resolve of the bulls. This decline brought price action directly into a critical technical convergence point: the rising 200-hour Moving Average (MA), currently located at 0.66366.For technical traders, this moving average serves as a vital barometer for the short-term trend. The good news for buyers is that the level held firm. The price successfully rebounded off this dynamic support line, pushing back above the interim 100-hour MA at 0.66519. However, the recovery has been far from smooth. Despite multiple attempts to extend gains, the pair has repeatedly stalled, failing to penetrate a distinct "swing area" established over the last three trading days near 0.66588.The Current Landscape: A Reluctance to Push HigherDespite the broader, longer-term bullish trend remaining intact—and the successful defense of the 200-hour MA—market sentiment appears hesitant. The inability to break through immediate overhead resistance suggests that buyer exhaustion may be setting in, or at least that traders are waiting for a stronger catalyst before committing to new highs.We are currently witnessing a classic technical tug-of-war. The market is squeezed between rising support and a stubborn ceiling, signaling that a volatility breakout could be imminent.The Bullish Scenario: What Buyers Need to ProveFor the bulls to regain full control, holding the 200-hour MA is necessary but not sufficient. They are currently trapped in a consolidation zone and need to clear specific hurdles to reignite the uptrend:The Immediate Hurdle: The first step is a decisive break and close above the 0.66588 swing area. This has acted as a "lid" on price action for days.The Next Target: Clearing that ceiling would shift focus to last week’s high at 0.66848.The Ultimate Goal: If momentum carries the pair through last week's high, it opens the door for a run toward the major September high at 0.67063.The Bearish Scenario: What Sellers Are WatchingSellers are currently banking on the 0.66588 level holding firm. As long as the price stays below this swing area, the bears remain in the game.The Strategy: Sellers are hoping the repeated failures at resistance will drain bullish momentum.The Trigger: The key victory for the bears would be a break below the rising 200-hour MA (0.66366) with conviction. Such a move would invalidate the immediate bullish setup and likely trigger a deeper correction.Watch the Video AnalysisIn the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) break down the technical factors driving this move in real-time. I outline exactly where the risk lies, how to interpret these moving average bounces, and map out the next targets that matter most for the AUD/USD currency pair.Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Supported rate cuts among shifting balance of risksSees future inflation risks as lower than they wereThe market is pricing in a 22% chance of a cut next month. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin is down nearly 2% today in the first dip below $87K since December 2. Bitcoin has been a good proxy for risk assets this year but lately has underperformed that metric. If it re-converges, then it points to downside risks for the Nasdaq.There is also an argument that they should disconnect anyway, as bitcoin is being left behind in all the enthusiasm for AI. In terms of catalysts, bitcoin got a big lift at this time last year from Trump's election and deregulation around it but hasn't been able to capitalize on that. On December 15 of last year, bitcoin was trading just above $100K.The risk is that bitcoin is increasingly viewed as 'yesterday's trade' and a technology that isn't really capable of disruption, or not nearly at the scale of AI. That could lead to a persistent slide in enthusiasm and a steady erosion in prices, particularly if we see falling risk appetite. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The broader U.S. stock market is moving lower, with the NASDAQ leading the downside as selling pressure builds across growth and technology shares. The recent pullback follows failed attempts to sustain record highs and reflects a market that is becoming more technically vulnerable in the short term.NASDAQ technical outlook: sellers regain controlThe NASDAQ index has fallen below both its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, located at 23,312 and 23,176, respectively. Staying below these key moving averages keeps sellers firmly in control and shifts the near-term bias to the downside. The next important technical target comes at the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the August low, near 22,698.34. A move toward that level would confirm a deeper corrective phase is developing.S&P 500 outlook: support levels now under pressureThe S&P 500 has fared better than the NASDAQ, but its technical picture has also weakened. The index has broken below its rising 100-hour moving average at 6,821.02, a level that previously helped keep buyers engaged. With that support now giving way, attention turns to the 200-hour moving average at 6,780.14. A break below that level would increase the bearish bias and expose the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the August low at 6,650.01.That retracement level is notable. In November, the S&P broke below the same level on its way to a low near 6,522, before staging a strong recovery. More recently, the index closed at a record high of 6,901 last Thursday, but failed to extend toward the October intraday high at 6,920.04. The reversal lower on Friday and continued weakness today reinforce near-term caution.Broadcom in focus as NASDAQ weakness acceleratesIn the video above, I also examine Broadcom, which has become a poster child for the recent NASDAQ-led decline. Despite reporting better-than-expected earnings — EPS of $1.95 versus $1.86 expected, revenue of $18.02 billion versus $17.47 billion expected, and stronger-than-expected Q4 guidance — the stock failed to hold its gains. The reaction highlights that Broadcom was priced for perfection, with traders instead focusing on a modest decline in margins.Since peaking, Broadcom shares have fallen roughly 17% from the highs and are now testing a key trendline near $344. A sustained break below that level would have traders targeting the $330 area, which corresponds to the November 14 low.Bottom lineAcross both indices and individual stocks, the technical message is becoming clearer. Failed breakouts, broken moving averages, and fading momentum are shifting control back toward sellers. Until key resistance levels are reclaimed, rallies are likely to be met with caution, with downside retracement levels remaining firmly in focus.Watch the Video Analysis: In the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) break down the technical factors driving the move, outline where the risk is, and map out the next targets that matter most for Nasdaq, S&P and BroadcomBe aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Policy is well positioned for what lies aheadSees tariffs as a one-off price adjustment, not spilling into broader inflationSees inflation at 2.5% in 2026 and 2% in 2027Projects jobless rate will come down over the next few yearsExpecst 2026 GDP to hit 2.25%, well above 2025 rateLabor market risks have risen as risks to inflation have easedFed policy has moved towards neutral from modestly restrictiveThere isn't any kind of strong signal here but note that the market is seeing a nearly 25% chance of a January rate cut, with two cuts full priced in next year and a 33% chance of a third.More:Uncertainty over tariffs has fallen quite a bitFed baseline forecast is for 'a pretty good outcome'Gradual cooling in job market points to modestly restrictive mon polInflation is still too high This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The candidacy of Kevin Hasset " has received some pushback by high-level people who have the ear of President Donald Trump," according to CNBC citing sources familiar.The concern is that he's too close to the President.Those people better be careful what they wish for because Kevin Warsh comes with his own set of concerns. My guess is that people who are pushing for Waller are behind this, as he's the only realistic candidate with any credibility. However on Friday, Trump said:“I think the two Kevins are great"That indicates it's a two-horse race. Over at Kashi, Warsh has passed Hassett: This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 38Current single-family home sales 42 vs 41 priorProspective buyers 26 vs 26 priorThe market is getting a sense of where Fed rates will bottom and it looks like US 30-year yields will finish the year where they started. In short, there is no help coming for the US housing market. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.