In an industry where many traders struggle to bridge the gap between learning and earning, Fortuno School stands out as a leader in providing professional-grade trading education, market research, and high-accuracy trading signals. Backed by its sister company Fortuno Markets, a global multi-asset broker, Fortuno School empowers traders to build skills, trade confidently, and access world-class market opportunities in one seamless ecosystem. The goal? To give traders everything they need to start winning in the market, and keep winning. The Bridge Between Learning and Earning Unlike traditional trading academies, Fortuno School is directly integrated with Fortuno Markets, a globally trusted multi-asset broker. This integration means students can move from theory to execution instantly, applying newly learned strategies on a live trading account with low spreads, lightning-fast execution, and leverage up to 1:Unlimited. "Most trading courses stop at theory. We go further, we train you, guide you, and then put the world’s markets at your fingertips through Fortuno Markets," said Ken, Founder of Fortuno Group. "We’re not just teaching people how to trade, we’re equipping them to succeed."What Fortuno School Offers High-Accuracy Trading Signals - VIP & VVIP members get exclusive buy/sell alerts with proven track records. Weekly Private Classes - Learn from seasoned analysts in real-time. Two-Way Trader Community - Exchange insights, strategies, and motivation with peers and mentors. Live Market Analysis - Stay ahead of market moves with daily insights. Beginner to Advanced Learning Path - Structured content to take you from zero experience to confident trader.Why This Matters for Traders The forex industry is notorious for high failure rates among beginners. Fortuno School aims to change that by combining education, real-time guidance, and an optimal trading environment in one place. With Fortuno Markets as the execution partner, traders enjoy: · Ultra-low trading costs · High leverage options · Multi-asset trading (forex, gold, indices, crypto) · Secure funding and withdrawalsAbout Fortuno School Fortuno School is a financial research and education firm and a sister company of Fortuno Markets, a global multi-asset broker. It provides traders with expert market analysis, high-accuracy trading signals, and structured learning programs designed to bridge the gap between theory and live trading. By combining education with direct access to professional trading tools through Fortuno Markets, Fortuno School empowers traders to learn, apply, and succeed in today’s fast-moving financial markets. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

Rate cuts by year-endFed: 55 bps (84% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 11 bps (93% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 15bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 22 bps (64% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 37 bps (66% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)RBNZ: 41 bps (97% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) SNB: 9 bps (88% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by year-endBoJ: 16 bps (87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)Following the US CPI report, the pricing for the Fed increased from 57 bps to 61 bps as the data came mostly in line with expectations and wasn't strong enough to force a reassessment. Then we got an upside surprise in the US PPI data (although most of that came from portfolio management services), further improvement in the US Jobless Claims and higher inflation expectations figures in the UMich survey.Traders eventually trimmed the aggressive dovish bets on the Fed and we settled around 55 bps of easing by year-end, which is what the market should have always expected. The data never justified more than two cuts. And I would argue that after the first cut, things will get even better and the market will likely need to trim further its bets. The focus now switches to Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Traders will focus on whether he opens the door for a cut in September. Most likely though, he will refrain from pre-committing to a rate cut and just reiterate that they will decide on the totality of the data, making the next NFP report crucial. For the other central banks, this week we have the Canadian CPI, the RBNZ rate decision and the UK CPI data. These events will likely influence the pricing for the BoC, RBNZ and BoE. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior €16.2 billion; revised to €16.5 billionThe euro area trade surplus narrowed considerably in June, with the seasonally adjusted reading also showing a decline to €2.8 billion as compared to €15.6 billion in May. After accounting for seasonal factors, exports were seen down 2.4% on the month while imports were seen up 3.1% on the month. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Cryptos are facing a pullback to start the new week, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum notably dropping. The former is down close to 2%, adjusting lower after failing to get above $124,000 last week. The latter is seeing a similar rejection of the $4,800 mark. The Friday decline already saw Bitcoin lose near-term momentum and with the latest drop today, Ethereum is suffering a similar fate.The near 5% fall today takes out the 200-hour moving average (blue line), after buyers had tried to defend the level over the weekend. The break there now sees the near-term momentum switch to being more bearish again. That is allowing for a test of the 38.2 Fib retracement level of the swing higher since the start of August, seen around $4,242.In short, buyers are now feeling exhausted as the upside leg reverses and the pullback is gathering a bit more traction.This is the first time since 4 August that price action has dipped below both key hourly moving averages. As such, there is scope for the retracement to run further before dip buyers step back in.For now, overall risk sentiment is also holding more tentative. Risk trades were optimistic last week in pushing Fed rate cut expectations but have since pulled back amid some slight inflation concerns. So, keep an eye on that as well in looking into the crypto mood this week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Fundamental OverviewThe USD came under some pressure at the start of last week following the US CPI report as the data came mostly in line with expectations. In the following days though, we got some hottish data with the US PPI beating expectations by a big margin, the US Jobless Claims improving further and the inflation expectations in the UMich survey surprising to the upside. Overall, we ended the week basically flat on the US dollar as the aggressive dovish expectations on the Fed got trimmed a bit. Nevertheless, given the overreaction from the Fed members to the last soft NFP, a September cut looks unavoidable now and only a hot NFP report in September might get us to a 50% probability (although it would certainly diminish expectations for rate cuts after the September one). The focus has now switched to Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Traders will be eager to see if he changes his stance as well. Most likely though, he won’t pre-commit to anything and just reiterate that they will decide based on the totality of the data.On the EUR side, we haven’t got anything new in terms of fundamentals after the US-EU trade deal that set tariffs at 15%. Many ECB members are now taking a much more neutral approach to rate cuts. They will need significant negative data to force them to cut further. The market is pricing just 11 bps of easing by year-end, so another rate cut has less than 50% chance of happening. EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD is approaching a major trendline around the 1.1750 level. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop back into the 1.1575 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into a new cycle high.EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the bullish momentum into the major trendline waned recently, and we might consolidate between the trendline and the minor support zone around the 1.16 handle. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the support, while the sellers would be better off piling in around the trendline.EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here although on an intraday basis, we might see a push into the trendline if the price breaks above the recent highs at 1.1715. The red lines define the average daily range for today.Upcoming CatalystsThis week is going to be more about Fed speakers than economic data. We begin with Fed’s Bowman tomorrow. On Wednesday, we have the Fed’s Waller and the FOMC meeting minutes. On Thursday, we get the Eurozone and US Flash PMIs as well as the US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with Fed Chair Powell speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The week will begin quietly, with no significant data releases scheduled for Monday that are likely to impact the FX market. On Tuesday, attention will turn to Canada with the release of inflation data, while in the U.S. the focus will be on building permits and housing starts. Wednesday brings several key events, including the RBNZ monetary policy announcement in New Zealand, inflation data from the U.K., and later in the day, the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. On Thursday, the spotlight shifts to the flash manufacturing and services PMIs for Australia, the eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S. In addition, the U.S. will publish existing home sales data. Thursday also marks the opening of the Jackson Hole Symposium, though Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to deliver his remarks on Friday. ECB President Lagarde and BoE Governor Bailey are also expected to speak later on Saturday. Rounding out the week, Canada will release the m/m retail sales data on Friday. In Canada, the consensus for CPI m/m is 0.4%, compared to the prior 0.1%. Median CPI y/y is expected to remain unchanged at 3.1%, trimmed CPI y/y is also expected to hold steady at 3.0%, while common CPI y/y is likely to edge up to 2.7% from 2.6%. For core CPI m/m, no consensus has been set at the time of writing, with the previous reading at 0.1%. Headline inflation is expected to remain at 1.9% y/y in July, unchanged from June, though underlying price pressures appear hotter. The removal of the carbon tax continues to weigh on headline figures, but tariffs, higher service costs, and steady consumer demand are keeping core measures elevated. Gasoline prices declined on both a monthly and annual basis, while food inflation, still affected by retaliatory tariffs, remains above 3%, according to RBC analysts. Excluding food and energy, prices likely rose 2.7% from a year earlier, slightly above June’s pace. The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures (CPI-trim and CPI-median) are expected to remain close to 3%, at the top of its target band, though shorter-term momentum should ease as April’s outsized gain drops out of the calculation. The RBC analysts also emphasized that resilient household spending is a key driver of these firm underlying trends, with retail sales and card data pointing to continued strength. Given stable labor market conditions, ongoing fiscal support, and inflation holding within its target range, the BoC is likely to keep rates on hold. In the U.S., the consensus for building permits is 1.39M vs prior 1.40M, while housing starts are expected at 1.29M vs prior 1.32M. Homebuilders continue to face challenges from sluggish single-family demand and excess supply, which has led to a sharp decline in single-family permits in recent months. In contrast, multifamily projects have been a bright spot, with June’s 30% surge in apartment starts offsetting weaker single-family activity and lifting total starts by 4.6%. For July, analysts at Wells Fargo expect a 1.6% decline in overall starts, as single-family weakness persists and multifamily activity normalizes after June’s surge. Builder sentiment also remains under pressure, with nearly 40% of firms reporting price cuts to attract buyers according to a NAHB survey. Even so, steadier mortgage rates and ongoing strength in apartment demand could pave the way for a modest rebound later this year. At this week’s meeting, the RBNZ is expected to deliver a 25 bps rate cut, bringing the policy rate down to 3.0% and resuming its easing cycle. According to RBNZ Chief Economist Conway, tariffs are weighing on the New Zealand economy, acting as a demand shock that could ease price pressures over the medium term. Recent economic data also support the case for a rate cut. Q2 CPI rose 2.7% y/y but came in below forecasts, with underlying measures continuing to ease. Labor market data was also weak, showing higher unemployment, modest wage growth, and a slight decline in employment. These signals point to cooling domestic momentum. Markets are now anticipating another 25 bps cut in November, which would lower the policy rate further to 2.75%. In the U.K., the consensus for CPI y/y is 3.7% vs 3.6% prior, while the core CPI y/y is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%. Reasons for the expected uptick are higher food costs and a temporary rise in hotel prices tied to major events such as concerts, which will offset the lower household energy bills. The pickup in services inflation is likely to be short-lived, making the headline figure a less reliable signal for policy direction. If inflation surprises to the upside, it could influence expectations for a potential rate cut at the November meeting. This week’s eurozone PMIs will be closely watched as the first major gauge of economic sentiment following the late-July trade agreement with the U.S., which will impose a 15% tariff on most EU exports. Consensus expects both manufacturing and services activity to soften slightly in August, with the composite PMI projected at 50.6, consistent with sluggish but still positive economic growth. The data will play an important role in shaping expectations for the ECB. Modest Q2 GDP growth and stable employment lessen the urgency for immediate easing. While a September rate cut remains the base case, stronger-than-expected PMI results could delay the final 25 bp move until December. In the U.S., the consensus for existing home sales is 3.92M vs prior 3.93M. High borrowing costs continue to weigh on housing activity, with existing home sales falling 2.7% in June to their weakest pace in ten months. Supply has increased enough to slow home price growth and even trigger outright declines in some markets, but affordability remains constrained by elevated rates and a softer labor market backdrop. Although the dip in mortgage rates in early August may offer some relief, it will not be reflected in the July data, where sales are expected to ease another 0.5% to 3.91M annualized, Wells Fargo analysts said. In Canada, the consensus for core retail sales m/m is 0.8% vs prior -0.2%, while retail sales m/m are expected at 1.0% vs prior -1.1%. The advance estimate for June points to a 1.6% rise in retail sales, partly driven by a 2.2% rebound in auto prices. Gas station sales are expected to remain stable, reflecting little change in fuel costs. Excluding autos and gasoline, core retail sales are estimated to have grown by nearly 2%, suggesting that underlying consumer demand remains resilient, according to RBC analysts. The Jackson Hole Symposium is typically a highly anticipated event for traders, and this year’s will be the last with Chair Powell, allowing him to reflect on lessons from his time leading the Fed. The 2025 framework review is less about rewriting Fed doctrine and more about formalizing what is already in practice: A symmetric 2% inflation target and a balanced focus on employment. While markets should not expect immediate policy shifts, Powell’s farewell message at Jackson Hole will help set the intellectual tone for the Fed’s next chapter. This article was written by Gina Constantin at investinglive.com.

Eurostoxx -0.3%Germany DAX -0.3%France CAC 40 -0.2%UK FTSE flatSpain IBEX -0.3%Italy FTSE MIB -0.1%It's a bit of a check back with US futures also dropping just a little to start the day. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.1% after tech shares saw a more sluggish showing at the end of last week. It's all about reassessing Fed odds in the week ahead, with markets now pricing in a ~84% probability of a rate cut. That is down from after having fully priced in such a move after the US CPI report last week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.