US Dollar (USD)Rangebound with opposing drivers: Fed cuts argue for weakness, strong US equities attract inflows.Likely stays contained in near term, with weakness emerging later in Q4.Euro (EUR)Lack of investment appeal so far; equities and rates underperformed US.German stimulus and Fed cuts vs ECB pause could support EUR/USD.Risks both ways, but skew is mildly positive.Japanese Yen (JPY)RBC maintains bullish call; USD/JPY expected below 140 by year-end.Recent weakness blamed on July-specific factors (elections, tariffs, carry).Rate differentials moving in JPY’s favor, BOJ steady, Fed easing.Sterling (GBP)Undervalued vs EUR, SEK, CHF; GBP/CHF has strongest short-term upside.BoE cautious on cuts; one more cut expected this year.Attractive for carry, especially vs CHF; limited US tariff exposure helps.Swiss Franc (CHF)Weakness delayed as SNB cautious on negative rates.Inflation weak but edging up; tariffs from US a big risk (39% on exports).Vulnerable to bouts of weakness near term.Canadian Dollar (CAD)USD/CAD stuck in 1.3550–1.3900 range; RBC keeps 1.38 Q3 target.Rallies above 1.38 seen as selling opportunities.Only big Fed or BoC surprises could break the range.Australian Dollar (AUD)Forecasts revised higher; AUD/USD to 0.64 end-2025.Supported by USD weakness, easing US-China trade tensions, and firm commodity prices.New Zealand Dollar (NZD)Underperforming; forecast revised to 0.58 end-2025.Weak economy and rising unemployment weigh, despite high rates.Agriculture sector benefits from weaker currency. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

OpenAI’s product head for ChatGPT, Nick Turley, said the company has launched ChatGPT Go in India.The service is priced at 399 rupees. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%.Previous close was 7.1854 This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

Traders and analysts are looking for a slight drop in headline inflation for July, with YY CPI expected to land at 1.8%, down from 1.9% in June. But the more important core measure (Trim and Median) is expected to stay elevated around 3.1%.This is important, because even though headline is seen drifting lower, the bank's preferred measure of Core inflation is remaining sticky above their target band.Right now, markets are pricing in around a 30% chance of a cut in September, and a 90% chance of a cut before year-end.The BoC has already signalled it's in wait-and-see mode, with several things working together to keep inflation expectations relatively anchored:Wage growth and unit labour costs have cooled off a bit.The Canadian dollar’s recent strength has helped make imported goods a little cheaper.And most importantly, tariff-driven inflation pressures remain mild so far, despite ongoing trade tensions and the broader global policy uncertainty.Despite this, Core inflation remains above the bank's tolerance band. So while they’re in no rush to cut, they’re also not ruling anything out, especially if growth weakens further and inflation keeps gliding lower.What could surprise markets later today?Hot core numbers at 3.2% or higher: If the average of median and trim prints above 3.2%, that would signal that underlying inflation is not just sticky but moving in the wrong direction. This could see markets drop cut expectations towards the end of the year. UBS recommends shorting USDCAD if this scenario unfolds.Big miss on bank's preferred core at 2.9% or lower : This, for me, is the most attractive option as a short-term opportunity. A significant downside surprise, however, will likely see the rate pricing nudge up to 50/50 for a September cut. Playing some short-term CAD downside in that scenario is the most appealing to me for today. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

German Chancellor Merz said these are decisive days for Ukraine.Merz said he is not sure if Putin will have the courage to attend a summit with Zelenskiy present.Merz welcomed Trump’s announcement on security guarantees for Ukraine.Merz said expectations from the meeting were not only met but exceeded.Merz emphasized that all of Europe should take part in security guarantees for Ukraine.Merz confirmed that Trump spoke with Putin and agreed on a Putin-Zelenskiy meeting to take place within two weeks.The location of the meeting is undecided.Merz added that the meeting will be followed by a three-way summit involving Trump.Nothing new and surprising here from Merz. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

USDContinuing its downtrend after a July rebound.Softer data and dovish Fed signals raise odds of September rate cuts.Markets now price slightly more than 25bps cut for September.Powell at Jackson Hole could outline restart of easing cycle.View: Further USD weakness; EURUSD targeting 1.21 by year-end.EURFocus on June trade data and Thursday’s flash PMIs.Recovery in manufacturing expected to support sentiment.Geopolitics (Ukraine/Russia) could add volatility.Main driver remains USD direction.View: EURUSD to recover, stable vs GBP and CHF; EURCHF bias 0.94–0.95 range.GBPFocus shifts to UK CPI next Wednesday.Hawkish BoE stance and stronger GDP supportive but mostly priced in.Resistance at 1.38 unlikely to break sustainably until later this year.BoE stuck between weak growth, soft labor market, and high inflation.View: GBP supported by attractive carry, but risks from fiscal issues make outlook cautious.AUDRBA cut 25bps to 3.6% in August, guidance largely unchanged.Labor market strong: unemployment at 4.24%, big full-time jobs gain.Inflation pressures and wage growth remain elevated.View: Cautious easing path with two more cuts (Nov, Feb) to 3.1%. AUDUSD seen at 0.68–0.70 mid-2026; favor longs at 0.64 or below.JPYUSDJPY drifting lower to 146–147 as Fed cuts priced in.Local reports suggest BoJ facing pressure for hawkish shift.CPI expected around 3.3%, above 2% target.View: BoJ could hike in December (not fully priced); prefer selling USDJPY upside for yield pickup. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

The Kremlin confirmed that Trump and Putin held a phone call.A Kremlin aide said Putin and Trump discussed exploring the possibility of raising the level of Russian and Ukrainian representatives in negotiations.Putin warmly thanked Trump for the hospitality and progress made at the Alaska summit, according to Russian agencies.Both leaders spoke in favor of continuing direct talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations, RIA reported.The Kremlin said the call lasted 40 minutes.Putin and Trump agreed to maintain close contact on the Ukrainian crisis and other pressing issues, according to TASS.This was framed quite positively from the Kremlin and good that the signals right now are showing continued engagement. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

EQUITIESStocks chopped sideways in typical late-summer trade. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were flat, the Dow dipped a fraction, while the Russell 2000 outperformed modestly. Sector-wise, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary led, with Real Estate and Energy lagging. One notable corporate storyline: reports that the administration is weighing a 10% equity stake in Intel, potentially swapping some CHIPS Act grants for shares. European bourses were mixed to slightly lower into the close. Among the major benchmarks, the CN50 was the strongest (+0.9%) while the EU50 was the weakest (-0.51%).FOREXThe dollar started the week on the front foot with the DXY back above 98. EURUSD couldn’t hang onto 1.1700, GBPUSD tested the 1.3500 area, and USDJPY pushed up toward 148. Among G10, CAD was the strongest performer on the session, with a very close struggled between the JPY, EUR and GBP for the bottom spot.COMMODITIESAfter initially falling at the open on Monday, Crude ground higher through the US afternoon with WTI settling around USD 62.70 and Brent near USD 66.60, with the push up coinciding with a report suggesting the US could leverage intelligence-sharing to help press for a Ukraine deal. Spot gold was a touch lower and LME copper eased slightly, with gold seeing a lot of chop (down initially, then up strongly, and then down to session lows again). Overall, a choppy mess for commodities yesterday.BONDSTreasuries drifted lower (yields a shade higher) in a narrow range as traders kept their powder dry for Powell’s Jackson Hole appearance. The 10-year sat around the mid-4.3s%, with small parallel moves across the curve. Inflation breakevens were little changed to slightly softer. In Europe, Bund futures found some support.CryptoSaw a bit more action compared to the rest, with BTC and ETH dipping more than 2% on the session before putting in a very decent bounce. For BTC, price managed to hold on and stay above the 50DMA with price currently testing prior SR around 117K at the moment.All in all, not a very exciting day across markets, apart from the earlier drop in Crypto. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

After a White House meeting, EU’s Von der Leyen said Europe and the US stand as allies and friends for peace in Ukraine and Europe.She called this an important moment as both sides continue to work on strong security guarantees for Ukraine. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

USDCAD (bearish bias):Expect a move lower from ~1.3775 in both near and longer term. Expression: Prefer selling upside risks above 1.39 Horizon: ~1 month. Catalyst: Next week’s Canada CPI where a stronger print would likely support CAD and weigh on USDCAD.EURNOK (bearish bias): Context: Pair rose after Norges Bank’s surprise June rate cut. Update: July meeting sounded more neutral. View: Expect EURNOK to drift lower toward forecasts in the coming months. Expression: Prefer selling upside above 12.0 over a 1-month horizon. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

US stocks close the day near unchangedTrump: We will try to work out trilateral with US, Ukraine, and RussiaFox News Heinrich: No expectation that today wraps up with a date for trilateral summitTrump:Progress is being made.There is possibility of something coming out of Putin meetingUkraine's Zelenskyy arrives at the White House. Peace is at stakeEuropean shares closed mostly lower. The UK's FTSE 100 rises modestlyZelenskiy: Giving up territory to Russia would be impossibleTrump: I'm here to stop it (the war), not to prosecute it any furtherZelenskiy: Russia can only be forced into peace through strengthNAHB housing market index 32 versus 34 expectationsTrump on Truth Social: We will see return of remaining hostages once Hamas is destroyedCanada securities transactions abroad for June $9.04 billion.versus $13.37B last monthCanada housing starts for July 2 94.1 K versus 265.0 K estimate.The USD is little changed to start the new trading day.investingLive European session wrap: Dollar steady amid tepid market mood, cryptos retreatThe geopolitical spotlight was on Washington today as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and a number of EU leaders arrived in at the White House to review the Russia–Ukraine war in the wake of last Friday’s Putin–Trump meeting. Attention shifted toward the European side, where leaders are pressing for U.S. security guarantees. Reports suggest Putin is demanding retention of seized territory and is unlikely to accept firm U.S. guarantees. The Trump administration has signaled that Europe will shoulder most of the defense burden—with the U.S. providing limited assurances and offering to supply defense equipment. The scope of U.S. support, however, remains uncertain.Hopes for a trilateral summit involving the U.S., EU, and Russia remain on the table, but there is no guarantee it will materialize. Likewise, expectations for a cease-fire are muted until a broader agreement is reached.On the economic front, the U.S. calendar was light with only the NAHB Housing Market Index released. The index slipped to 32 from 34, tying the third-lowest reading since 2012—levels only seen in April 2020 and December 2022. The decline reflects elevated mortgage rates, weak home-buyer traffic, and supply-side pressures. While U.S. rates have eased modestly over the past week, mortgage costs remain high, with the 30-year rate ranging between 6.53% and 7.04% over the past year.Looking ahead, the main economic event this week will be the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday afternoon, followed by Chair Powell’s keynote at Jackson Hole on Friday at 10 a.m. ET. Powell has been notably silent since the latest U.S. jobs report, and markets have scaled back expectations of a September rate cut from 100% to 83%. Recent Fed commentary has been mixed: Bowman and Waller remain dovish, while Barkin, Daly, Goolsbee, Kashkari, Musalem, and Schmid have adopted a more noncommittal stance, leaving policy direction uncertain.The USD is ending the day mostly higher EUR: +0.27%JPY: +0.45%GBP: +0.37%CHF: +0.07%CAD: -0.10%AUD: +0.20%NZD: +0.02%The biggest mover was the USDJPY with most of the gains happening before the US session. The par did extend to a new high in the first few hours of trading, but backed off into the European session and into the US afternoon. At session highs, the price extended to the 100-bar MA at 147.908, where sellers leaned on the test. The pair is trading at 147.86 going into the close with the 100-bar MA setting up as a key level for both buyers and sellers in the new day. The EURUSD and the GBPUSD moved lower and is closing near the lows for the day. For the EURUSD, it fell to the 100 hour MA near 1.1663, falling to a low of 1.16155, but momentum faded and the price is trading right at the 200-hour MA going into the close.For the GBPUSD, it fell below its 100-hour MA at 1.3545, and stretched toward the 200-hour MA at 1.3484, but is having some stall at the natural support at 1.3500. In the new trading day, that MA will be in play. Moving below will be more bearish. The other currency pairs are within 0.20% from the closing level on Friday.In the US stock market, the 3 major indices were little changed.Dow industrial average fell -0.08%S&P index fell -0.01%NASDAQ index rose 0.03%in the US debt market, yields are modestly higher: 2 year yield 3.769%, +1.0 basis points5-year yield 3.850%, +0.5 basis points.10 year yield 4.335%, +0.7 basis points30 year yield 4.935%, +1.1 basis points This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Bild reported that Trump interrupted a meeting with European leaders to call Putin.The meeting will be resumed after the call.I feel like we need more context about why or how this happened. Maybe EU leaders reached some type of consensus and they want to test the waters with Putin.Or perhaps... This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

Arm hired former Amazon AI chip director Rami Sinno to strengthen its push into developing complete in-house chips.Sinno helped build Amazon’s Tranium (training) and Inferentia (inference) chips for large AI workloads.Move underscores Arm’s strategy shift from supplying IP/architectures to creating full chip designs.Reuters had previously reported Arm’s plans (from sealed December trial exhibits) and its executive hiring drive earlier this year; this hire aligns with that trajectory. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

Goldman on their general view of the USD as well as a few points on Jackson Hole this week:Base case: USD likely to depreciate as US growth no longer justifies its high valuation; softening labor market reinforces this view.Jackson Hole: Expect similar to last year—officials outline scope to ease without firm commitments but those hoping for explicit policy signals may be disappointed.Rates: Incoming data and Fed speak suggest more room to run in front-end rates, and their house view is for three 25bp cuts.Macro implication: Lower 'breakeven' payrolls and tighter labour supply imply weaker potential growth and a lower short-term neutral rate, which should both be negative for the USD.Inflation: Recent prints (including PPI) point to consumer prices not constraining policymakers; PPI mainly highlights a volatile, uncertain operating backdrop for firms.FX momentum: Recent USD downside came in quiet markets and from foreign drivers, showing path of least resistance is lower. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

It was a very quiet day in the US stock market: Dow industrial average fell -33.93 points or -0.08% at 44912.19S&P index fell -0.64 points or -0.01% at 6449.16. The NASDAQ index rose 6.80 points or 0.03% at 21629.77The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 7.94 points or 0.35% at 2294.46,The markets seemed more intent to watch the proceedings from the White House meetings with Ukraine's Zelenskyy and the EU leaders. There was nothing surprising: Ukraine and EU leaders would like security guarantees in regard to future Russian aggressionTrump suggests that the EU/NATO would be on the front line as far as the security guarantees(the US wants to sell defense tanks, instead of giving away defense/tanks), but the US would play a role. What that role is... is unknown. The expectations are there will not be a cease-fire ahead of the next meeting if that can take place.Although Trump thinks that Putin is ready for a deal, he did hedge himself by saying he did not know if there was going to be a deal or not. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Pres. Trump and the EU leaders are meeting with the press: Have had a very successful day so far.Will try to work out trilateral with US, Ukraine, and Russia. Russia agreed to accept security guarantees.We will be considering who will do what.Optimistic collectively we all reach an agreement to deter aggression on Ukraine.We also need to discuss the possible exchanges of territory. IfAll of us would prefer an immediate cease-fire while we work on a lasting peace.As of this moment, that has not happened.Peace agreement at and is attainable.Can be done in the near future.Think we will come to resolution today.Resolution would probably include security.Think that you really would like to do something.In a week or two will know if we can resolve this. Putin wants to find an answer.It is possible it might not be able to be done. On the other hand, it's possible it will be able to be done.Zelenskyy:Spoke about sensitive matters including security guarantees.All of us want to finish this more and stop Russia.Important that US gives a strong signal on security.Trump will try to organize trilateral: Ukraine would be happy if Trump were there.EU Von der Leyen:Security guarantees are so important.Germany' Merz:Helpful to meet but next steps more complicated.We all would like to see a cease-fireItaly's MeloniIf we want peace, we have to do it unitedFrance's Macron:We all support idea of truceUK Starmer: We can make real progress on security guaranteesThe European leaders were pretty consistent in their desire to have security guarantees. Pres. Trump hedged himself by saying that it may work/it may not work. He did say that he "thinks that they will come to a resolution today", which would "probably include security". Needless to say there is more positive coming out of the meeting today, but the more important person (Putin) was not in the room. Also, it is one thing to say that they will provide security guarantees. It is another thing that Russia would allow US troops in Ukraine.My inkling is that the selling of arms to NATO is Trump's way of staying at arm's length. Also Europeans adding to their defense spending is some additional security. However, having direct US involvement and guarantees in security is the ultimate protection in times of peace. Putin/Russia has a history of aggression. Trust is not easily regained.Overall, the markets seem to be watching and not necessarily reacting. The US stock indices remain within 0.10% of the closing level with the S&P and the NASDAQ nearly unchanged on the day.US yields are now marginally positive on the day with the two-year up 1.0 basis points while the 10 year is up 1.1 basis points. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump is now over.Meeting with EU leaders will now commence.Will Ukraine give up land?Will there be a security deal that will ensure new borders and further Russian intervention? This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The AUDUSD moved lower in U.S. trading after testing and failing to break above the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart. The subsequent decline pushed the pair below its 100-bar moving average at 0.6502, shifting the near-term bias to the downside and triggering follow-through selling.That said, the downside momentum stalled near last week’s lows at 0.6481, with the pair now trading around 0.6491 on a modest bounce. Sellers are pressing the case, but they need to maintain momentum and push through last week’s low to strengthen the bearish outlook.If a break lower occurs, the next key target comes in at 0.6449, where the rising 100-day moving average currently sits. Until then, buyers may continue to defend support levels, leaving the pair at a technical crossroads. What the sellers on the break today do not want to see is a rotation back above the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart currently at 0.6502. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Jacqui Heinrich reports that she talked with a source involved in the pre-meeting with Zelenskyy. Below is a summary: No expectation of a trilateral summit date today – success would be a realistic discussion on territorial concessions.Zelenskyy not expected to accept Putin’s first map – but must define what can be conceded vs. what is non-negotiable.Clarity on security guarantees is key for Zelenskyy to sell any deal at home.U.S. believes momentum exists – aiming for progress in “weeks not months.”U.S. & Europeans have made “gentle” suggestions on territory – but Zelenskyy must bring a counteroffer.Ukraine’s referendum requirement on territorial changes seen as Zelenskyy’s problem to manage.U.S. interest in mineral-rich areas under Russian control seen as a strategic security issue.Europeans see security guarantees as crucial – eager to protect and preserve them.Also want to help Zelenskyy avoid missteps given the high political risk of negotiations.No full security plan expected today – but want clear next steps and a commitment in principle from the U.S. and allies.Awareness that the U.S. may need to legislate guarantees to ensure durability beyond one administration.White House views Putin’s acceptance of security guarantees as important: “Now we have to put more meat on the bone.”Unity between Europe, U.S., and Ukraine is the main measure of success.Neither Ukraine nor the U.S. want today’s talks to fail. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

TrumpIf everything works out well we will have a trilateral meetingTrump:think progress is being made.Possibility that something could come out of the Putin meetingWill work with Ukraine and all to make sure peace staysThere will be a lot of help on securityWe are going to have a lasting peaceDoes not think there will be a cease-fireWe can work a deal where we aim for peace while they fight Gonna be discussing security guarantees.We will be giving them very good protection very good security..We are not giving Ukraine anything, we are selling weapons.US makes the best military systems in the world.We sell the equipment to NATO. We will sell $300 to $350BWill have a call with Putin after meetingsZelenskyy: Thanks Trump for his effortsNeed to stop the warReady for trilateral engagementI am open for electionsAsked what security measures he needs and his reply was everythingOf course, in the middle of the meeting, there is a planted question on Mail-in ballots. Trump said that they will get rid of mail-in ballots. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.