Did you really forget what August–September does? The kill zone — August baits, September traps, and you might be running out of time. This isn’t superstition or “seasonal weakness.” It’s a scheduled, mechanical portfolio reset — one that’s already in motion, and it ends with a September hit.This isn’t random seasonality — it’s a planned portfolio reset built into the calendar.September is the S&P 500’s weakest month, averaging –1.17% over the past two decades — and August often lays the trap.In 2021, the market had been grinding higher for months. VIX pinned to the floor, volumes dead — summer silence. A couple of hawkish Fed headlines, and September didn’t just cool the rally — it cut through it, sparking forced selling and panic exits.August 2023 was pure euphoria. AI mania peaking, Nvidia at fresh highs, Nasdaq screaming. While retail chased headlines, funds were already unloading — not reacting, but executing the plan. Two weeks into September, it was gone — Nvidia and Nasdaq back to their starting point, as if the rally never happened.Different years, different triggers — same playbook. The August–September drop is never a random reaction — it’s the planned reset playing out on schedule. August loads the gun — September pulls the trigger. Earnings Season: The Most Strategic Reports of the YearThe timing of Q2 earnings — late July through mid-August — isn’t a coincidence. It’s the cover phase of the reset. With books closed on June 30, companies drop their reports right as institutions start reshaping portfolios for the final fiscal stretch. The tactic is simple: use strong reports as cover to unload.For example, on July 28, 2021, Meta smashed expectations — revenue $29.08B, +56% YoY, net income doubled, earnings per share (EPS) crushed forecasts and stock popped 10% to a fresh ATH at $385.And then — the reversal. By September 30, Meta was down nearly 13% from that peak. Not because the report was bad — it was too good. The fundamentals didn’t change. The positioning did — the reset was underway. Peak sentiment, max retail FOMO, and an open door to sell without tanking your own PnL. Strong beats become exit windows — and every one of them is just another brick in the calendar-driven repositioning foundation that September will finish building.Why it happensEvery summer, the S&P 500 sinks into a local liquidity drought. Fifteen years of data say the same thing: volumes dry up, order books thin, and even modest trades are hitting hard. Thin books + low volume aren’t an accident — they’re the perfect cover for the stealth phase of the reset.The VIX sits low here, peddling the illusion of safety — but that calm is a lie. Over the past four years, volatility has exploded an average of +71% from August’s quiet lows to late-September’s chaos – right on schedule. That spike isn’t panic — it’s the trigger point of the quarter-end unwind, when the stealth phase flips into open execution.August — The Setup Isn’t Breaking. It’s Peaking.August is when institutional desks start their moves. They exit positions while prices are still near the highs, locking in profits to book them in the current quarter. The mission isn’t just to make money — it’s to make the quarter-end snapshot look perfect before the storm they know they’ll help trigger.SPX futures liquidity runs 20–30% below average this month. Desks are half-staffed, risk managers are on the beach, and it only takes one real sell order to start a slide. With VIX near the floor, no one’s hedged — which is exactly how pros like it. They sell into strength while retail is still reading “resilient market” headlines, and they’re gone before the first crack shows on the chart.That’s why August rarely implodes. It leaks — quietly. By the time September starts, the stealth phase of the reset is no longer preparation — it’s already in full motion.September Hits HarderBy September, the reset became deliberate and aggressive. For many US funds and corporations, it’s not just quarter-end — it’s the fiscal year-end. Portfolios aren’t being “adjusted,” they’re cleared for reporting purposes. Profits get locked in, losers get cut, and risks are being reduced, so balance sheets look bulletproof heading into Q4.What looks like “random selling” is nothing of the sort — it’s mandated portfolio resets tied to the calendar. The final phase of the cycle is about appearance as much as performance: managers want to print strong returns, hide drawdowns, and walk into year-end with portfolios that look unshakable on paper. When thousands of funds do this simultaneously, it amplifies every other September stressor — thin liquidity, buyback blackouts, and macro bombs waiting on the calendar.September: The Perfect Storm WindowThe Mechanical SqueezeSeptember isn’t just the weakest month for equities — it’s when the market’s plumbing turns hostile. First, the buyback blackout kills one of the most reliable daily demand engines. Without corporate bids soaking up supply, every sell order hits harder. Then triple witching slams in, forcing billions in options and futures flows through an order book already running on fumes. These are not market “events” — they’re pre-scheduled shocks baked into the reset. Look at September’s calendar — it isn’t random. The witching, CPI/PPI, FOMC: stack them up and you don’t see events, you see a firing sequence.The Macro DetonatorsWhile the mechanical stress is still rippling, the calendar drops its macro payload: CPI and PPI in the same week, a full FOMC meeting with Powell’s presser, and major index rebalances that shove megacap weights around like cargo in a storm. In this tape, even neutral Fed language can land like a hawkish bomb. History is brutal here — in 2022, a single CPI beat erased $3 trillion in market cap within three weeks. But 2025 is set up to be even harsher. This time, the entire market is leaning on one assumption — that Powell will finally pivot, that rate cuts are coming to save the tape. If that relief doesn’t arrive, the faith holding this rally together cracksWhen you stack macro bombs, mechanical flows, and no liquidity, you don’t get a dip — you get a hit that doesn’t pause for you to react. If you think you’ll have time to adjust when it starts, you’re already too late.How it looks in real timeThe tells aren’t hidden — they’re screaming if you know where to look.● Strong earnings, falling prices: A company crushes EPS and revenue, and the stock sells off anyway. That’s not a miss — that’s pros using your bid to exit.● Weak names rallying: Laggards suddenly lead, not because fundamentals flipped, but because funds are rebalancing without chasing stretched leaders.VIX creeping up: The tape looks calm in the mid-teens (14–15), but fake breakouts and stop runs multiply. First push through 16.5? That’s your early warning. Weekly close above 18.5? That’s regime change — “buy the dip” flips to “sell the rip.”In 2020, Tesla surged 74% into late August ahead of S&P inclusion, then dumped 34% in three weeks. In 2015, after China’s devaluation, the S&P fell 11% in ten days. The trigger headlines change. The reset mechanics don’t.August–September: the setup is visible on the tapeWhile feeds are still cheering new highs, the chart tells a cleaner story. Price is stalling beneath 6,480–6,500 after a 16% run. The tape is stretched, VIX is creeping off the floor, and the liquidity under you is paper-thin. The map is already drawn: First — a September flush into the highlighted liquidity band at 5,900–6,000 as VIX pushes from 14–15 through 16.5 and toward 18.5–20. Then — a reversal drive toward the 1.618 extension near 7,100. This isn’t a random correction — it’s the market’s quarterly reset playing out on schedule.If the index breaks 6400 and closes the week under 6350 with VIX >16.5 (ideally ≥18.5), the wash opens straight to 6150 → 6000–5900. That’s the shakeout. If, after that sweep, price reclaims 6150–6300 while VIX drops back under 16, the runway to 6600 and 7100 is clear.Invalidation is simple: a clean hold above 6500 with VIX ≤15 skips the wash and squeezes toward 6600 — but the base case into September is flush first, extension later.ConclusionWhile retail still treats this rally like an open barrier, the planned reset is already in progress. The calm you see isn’t stability — it’s the pause before the blade drops. And when it does, it won’t miss. If you’re still long without a plan, you’re not trading — you’re volunteering as someone’s exit liquidity. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

Just mark this one down on your calendars, as the release is pushed back by a good two weeks. ONS cites the reason as "to allow for further quality assurance". Yep, the credibility issues with regards to UK data continues and now not just with the labour market. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The ranges among major currencies may not look that bad but the change on the day currently exemplifies the lack of real interest on the session. The dollar is holding more mixed in general with light changes all around. EUR/USD is up just 0.1% to 1.1674 with large option expiries at 1.1700 also capping any potential extension to price action today. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is also down just 0.1% to 147.64 while GBP/USD is marginally higher by 0.1% to 1.3520. Yawn much.In the equities space, we're seeing European stocks at least hold slightly higher on the day. The positive murmurs surrounding Russia-Ukraine tensions are helping at least, though it remains to be seen if there will be any major breakthrough. As for US futures, the mood remains rather muted with S&P 500 futures down 0.1%.The bond market is also pretty much dead with not much change of note in yields, while gold is just up 0.2% to $3,338 and continuing to hold more rangebound in the big picture since late May.It's all about waiting for bigger developments this week. Tomorrow, we'll get the RBNZ policy decision, UK CPI report, and Fed minutes. On Thursday, we'll have a slew of PMI data as well as the US weekly initial jobless claims. In between all that, we also will get key earnings from Target and Walmart. And to round things off at the end of the week, there's Fed chair Powell's appearance in Jackson Hole. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Fundamental OverviewThe USD came under some pressure at the start of last week following the US CPI report as the data came mostly in line with expectations. In the following days though, we got some hottish data with the US PPI beating expectations by a big margin, the US Jobless Claims improving further and the inflation expectations in the UMich survey surprising to the upside. Overall, we ended the week basically flat on the US dollar as the aggressive dovish expectations on the Fed got trimmed a bit. Nevertheless, given the overreaction from the Fed members to the last soft NFP, a September cut looks unavoidable now and only a hot NFP report in September might get us to a 50% probability (although it would certainly diminish expectations for rate cuts after the September one). The focus has now switched to Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Traders will be eager to see if he changes his stance as well. Most likely though, he won’t pre-commit to anything and just reiterate that they will decide based on the totality of the data.On the AUD side, the RBA cut interest rates by 25 bps as widely expected but didn’t offer much in terms of forward guidance, although their focus switched more towards the labour market. The latest employment report missed by a little margin on the headline number but overall the data was good. The market is seeing 33% probability of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting with a total of 35 bps of easing expected by year-end. AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD has been pulling back from the highs after the hottish US data in the final part of last week. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe as the price is now trading in the middle of the two key levels: the top trendline and the support zone around the 0.6350 level. We need to zoom in to see some more details.AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is now at the key support zone around the 0.6480 level. The buyers will likely continue to step in around these levels with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into the top trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to start targeting the 0.6420 low and the 0.6350 support next. AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the buyers will look for a rally from the support zone, while the sellers will look for a break lower to pile in for new lows. On an intraday basis, a break above the 0.65 handle might see the buyers increase the bullish bets into the 0.6522 level next. The red lines define the average daily range for today. Upcoming CatalystsTomorrowwe have Fed’s Waller speaking and the FOMC meeting minutes. On Thursday, we get the Australian and the US Flash PMIs as well as the US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with Fed Chair Powell speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior €32.3 billionSlight delay in the release by the source. The current account surplus increased slightly in June as surpluses were recorded for goods (€23 billion), services (€16 billion) and primary income (€14 billion). These were partly offset by a deficit for secondary income (€17 billion). Here's the trend: This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Fundamental OverviewThe USD came under some pressure at the start of last week following the US CPI report as the data came mostly in line with expectations. In the following days though, we got some hottish data with the US PPI beating expectations by a big margin, the US Jobless Claims improving further and the inflation expectations in the UMich survey surprising to the upside. Overall, we ended the week basically flat on the US dollar as the aggressive dovish expectations on the Fed got trimmed a bit. Nevertheless, given the overreaction from the Fed members to the last soft NFP, a September cut looks unavoidable now and only a hot NFP report in September might get us to a 50% probability (although it would certainly diminish expectations for rate cuts after the September one). The focus has now switched to Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Traders will be eager to see if he changes his stance as well. Most likely though, he won’t pre-commit to anything and just reiterate that they will decide based on the totality of the data.On the CHF side, we haven’t got anything new in terms of monetary policy as the SNB is now in a long pause. The latest Swiss CPI showed a slight improvement in inflation although it’s not important as the central bank will not hike rates for a long time. The market doesn’t expect the SNB to cut anymore. There’s some focus at the moment on the 39% tariffs that the US slapped on Switzerland. That is likely to be resolved in the near future with the rate being set between 10-20% as we’ve seen for most other countries. USDCHF Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF is trading at the key support zone around the 0.8050 level. The buyers will likely continue to step in around the support with a defined risk below it to keep targeting the 0.84 handle next. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into new cycle lows. USDCHF Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we’ve been consolidating ever since the dollar selloff triggered by the soft NFP report. The price action formed what looks like a descending triangle. The price can break on either side of the pattern but what follows next is generally a sustained trend in the direction of the breakout. USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the rangebound price action is likely to persist until Powell’s speech or the NFP report. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline, while the buyers would be better off stepping in around the 0.8020 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today. Upcoming CatalystsTomorrowwe have Fed’s Waller speaking and the FOMC meeting minutes. On Thursday, we get the US Flash PMIs as well as the US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with Fed Chair Powell speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The idea here is to provide Ukraine with strong enough security guarantees in order to pave the way for a meeting between Zelensky and Putin at some point. The report says that the guarantees will center on bolstering Ukraine’s military forces and capabilities without any limitations. And that is mostly to avoid calls by Russia in wanting Ukraine to downsize its military as part of any peace agreement in the future.Adding to that, the sources say that a package of security guarantees would also build on the work of the so-called coalition of the willing from Europe. However, the format of that is yet to be defined or finalised for now. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX +0.1%Italy FTSE MIB +0.3%It's another sluggish day with traders and investors not having much to work with. US futures are down 0.2% after the more tepid showing yesterday, continuing to reflect some caution with all eyes on Fed chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. But before that, there will be the Fed minutes and also key earnings from big retailers (Target and Walmart) as well as PMI data in the days ahead. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Fundamental OverviewGold continues to trade in a tight range ahead of Powell’s speech and the NFP report in September. The market participants continue to look for strong reasons to trigger a breakout on either side. Right now, there’s still uncertainty around the interest rates outlook as a hot NFP in September could flip expectations pretty quickly. Last week, the market got some support from the US CPI as the data came mostly in line with expectations. In the following days though, we got some hottish data with the US PPI beating expectations by a big margin, the US Jobless Claims improving further and the inflation expectations in the UMich survey surprising to the upside. That saw traders trimming their aggressive rate cuts expectations and we got back to price 53 bps of easing by year-end compared to 64 bps after the US CPI release. The focus has now switched to Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Traders will be eager to see if he changes his stance as well. Most likely though, he won’t pre-commit to anything and just reiterate that they will decide based on the totality of the data.In the bigger picture, gold should remain in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fed easing. But hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations will likely keep on triggering corrections in the short term. Gold Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that gold continues to trade right in the middle of the range defined by the key 3,438 resistance and the 3,245 support. There’s not much else we can glean from this timeframe as market participants will likely continue to play the range until we get a breakout on either side. We need to zoom in to see some more details.Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor support zone around the 3,330 level. That’s where the buyers continue to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally back into the 3,438 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the 3,245 support next.Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the buyers will look for a rally from the support, while the sellers will look for a break and a drop into the next support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.Upcoming CatalystsTomorrowwe have Fed’s Waller speaking and the FOMC meeting minutes. On Thursday, we get the US Flash PMIs as well as the US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with Fed Chair Powell speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.Watch the video This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

In the European session, we don't have anything on the agenda, so we can expect the usual choppy price action although some US dollar strength into Powell's speech looks likely.In the American session, we get the Canadian CPI. The most important measure, the Trimmed-Mean CPI YoY is expected at 3.1% vs 3.0% prior. That would be above the Bank of Canada's 1-3% target band and certainly much higher than the 2% mid-point. The market is pricing a 31% chance of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting, which looks totally misplaced based on the economic data. Overall, the market sees at least one last 25 bps rate cut by October 2026.We have also Fed's Bowman speaking today but given that she's a known dove and that the topic of the discussion is about "fostering new technology in the banking system", she's unlikely to offer anything new or market-moving. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

German DAX futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures flatThere is some hopeful optimism after yesterday's meeting between Trump, Zelensky, and European leaders as politicians back security guarantees in the aftermath. However, it remains to be seen how things will progress with a sit down between Putin and Zelensky surely necessary at some point. As for the broader market mood, it's all rather tentative and tepid as we wait on bigger developments this week. US futures are down 0.2% on the day, keeping the balance in check going into the session ahead. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

MUFG notes that the Jackson Hole Symposium will be the next high-stakes event for the Fed in terms of offering up any policy communication. And given the circumstances, a repeat of last year - where a dovish guidance was explicit - is rather unlikely. The firm notes that Fed chair Powell is expected to lean on the cautious side and that will temper downside pressures on the US dollar in the near-term.They also note that markets are pricing in the resumption of policy easing by the Fed and will look to Powell to validate those expectations. However, Powell may not choose to confirm the timing and buy more time to assess incoming data. If so, that could dampen downside pressures against the dollar with markets having to reassess their pricing on rate cuts.The narrative here fits with the commentary from yesterday: Jackson Hole on the horizon for markets this week This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There will be bigger fish to fry later in the week. But for now, European traders and investor will have to fend for themselves in working through this more tentative and tepid market mood. Traders are settling down after Fed rate cuts bets have cooled since last week, though Fed funds futures still point to ~84% odds of a 25 bps move.All eyes will be on Fed chair Powell's speech in Jackson Hole on Friday. But before we get to that, there will be some interest on the Fed minutes as well as earnings by big retailers - namely Target and Walmart. And that is not forgetting the PMI data on Thursday as well.In the meantime though, we're in for yet another slower session to start the week. Major currencies are little changed after the dollar posted slight gains overnight. The changes are leaving a lot to be desired and speaks to the lack of conviction as we look to European morning trade. A snoozefest really.And that is also exemplified by the movement in equities with US futures being little changed, down just 0.1%, after the near unchanged showing in Wall Street yesterday.There is at least some positive murmurs from the talks between Trump, Zelensky, and European leaders in Washington. But again, now we'll have to see if we can move to an eventual sit down between Putin and Zelensky to work things out. Call me a skeptic but I still hold my doubts on this issue.In any case, we're likely going to be in for another slower and quieter session barring any headline surprises in the hours ahead. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Japan needs new economic framework in which BOJ raises rates, government restores fiscal healthBetter to start early for BOJ when it comes to rate hikesJapan must reverse weak yen, seek a somewhat stronger currencyBOJ must gradually raise rates as it is undesirable to keep real borrowing costs negative for a prolonged periodThe pressure is certainly starting to grow for the BOJ to take action. But as has been the case since Ueda took charge, they've been more than willing enough to bide their time. The central bank could've took their first step in late 2023 but waited on the spring wage negotiations before moving in March 2024. That underscores the mentality as we look towards the next rate hike as well it would seem. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

If you just got to your desk for the day, don't worry, you didn't miss much. It was an exceptionally quiet session with very little to get excited about in terms of price action.Japan PM calls for ceasefire and fair peace, weighs role in Ukraine securityFX option expiries for 19 August 10am New York cutS&P affirms US AA+ rating with stable outlook despite high deficitsImportant implied volatility levels for USDCAD, EURCAD, GBPCAD and CADJPYHurricane Erin nears Bahamas, heads toward US Atlantic coastRBC 1-3 month outlook for major currenciesOpenAI launches ChatGPT Go in India for 399 rupeesPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1359 (vs. estimate at 7.1846)Preview for the Canadian CPI data later todayAustralia Consumer Sentiment 5.7% vs 0.6% priorRubio backs Ukraine security guarantees, confirms Trump urged Putin to meet ZelenskiyPBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1846 – Reuters estimateMorgan Stanley expects a hawkish leaning Powell this weekZelenskiy pushes for real peace, signals US support on security guaranteesNATO chief calls Washington talks a breakthrough on Ukraine security guaranteesBTC showing higher timeframe divergenceEconomic Calendar for today 19 Aug 2025Finland’s president outlines progress on Ukraine security guaranteesGerman Chancellor Merz calls Ukraine talks decisive, backs security guaranteesUBS: View across major FX for the week aheadKremlin says Trump and Putin call focused on Ukraine talks and ongoing cooperationCross Asset Snapshot: choppy start across markets with eyes on jackson holeVon der Leyen stresses allied unity and security guarantees for UkraineUBS likes selling upside in USDCAD and EURNOKinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap 18 Aug: Zelenskyy/EU leaders meet with TrumpTrump pauses meeting with EU leaders to call PutinArm hires Amazon AI chip director to lead in-house chip effortGoldman expects further USD depreciation due to economic performanceCatalysts were very thin. We has a plethora of politicians all weighing in on the Trump/EU meeting, but all of them basically just said what we already knew. There were some positive-looking developments when Trump had a phone call with Putin, and the overall message from both the US and the Kremlin was positive and shows ongoing engagement.There is talk of article-5 security guarantees, but I'm sceptical on whether the US or other allies will want to commit to that given the recent history.In FX, the NZD has been the strongest currency on the session so far, with the CAD the weakest. There were no real catalysts in play and most major pairs saw very small and contained moves.Equity futures are technically trading in the red for most of the major benchmarks when looking at percentage change. Howeve, when looking at the actual price charts you'll have to really squint to see the downside.In commodities, gold was the outperformer by a whopping 0.19% so far, while oil was down close to half a percent.Treasury yields moved up slightly.All-in-all, a pretty boring session. Let's hope CA CPI can shake things up a bit later in the day. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba said the important priority is an immediate ceasefire and the achievement of a 'fair peace' when asked about the US-Ukraine meeting.He added that Japan will consider what it can do in terms of security for Ukraine from the standpoint of its legal framework and capabilities. 'from a standpoint of its legal framework and capabilities'...that's a really nice way of saying we probably won't be able to do anything.Will have to remember this line the next time the kids ask me for more screen time. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

There are a couple to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold below.The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1625 and 1.1700 levels. The expiries should act as bookends for price action in the session ahead, though we might not see too much attraction given the lack of trading appetite. The dollar is steadier overall but not really finding much conviction to go running to start the week.Then, there is one for AUD/USD at the 0.6515 level. The expiries here might not factor too much into play given the more lackadaisical market mood. However, they do sit near the key hourly moving averages around 0.6517-18 currently and together could limit any upside extension of the price range in the session ahead.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

S&P affirmed the US sovereign rating at AA+/A-1+ with a stable outlook, noting steady but high deficits.It expects US net general government debt to approach 100% of GDP due to rising nondiscretionary interest and aging-related spending.S&P projects US economic growth around 2% following a slowdown in 2025 and 2026.It said fiscal deficit outcomes won’t meaningfully improve, but no persistent deterioration is projected over the next several years.Average annual real GDP growth is expected to decelerate to 1.7% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

Here is a quick snapshot of today's implied volatility support and resistance levels for USDCAD, EURCAD, GBPCAD and CADJPY ahead of today's CA CPI data.USDCAD: 1.3837 (resistance) - 1.3760(support)EURCAD: 1.6150(resistance) - 1.6030 (support)GBPCAD: 1.8700(resistance) - 1.8570 (support)CADJPY: 107.60 (resistance) - 106.50 (support)Looking at the EURCAD specifically, the pair is currently rejecting from a huge multi-year level of resistance around the 1.6150, with decent confluence with the implied volatility level as well. Big level to watch for those trading the EURCAD.These levels are based on 1-month implied volatility and can be used as dynamic and market-based levels of support and resistance.These levels on their own are quite handy, but when we combine them with technical analysis tools like pivot points, or fibs, or psychological levels, you can identify potential entry, take profit, or stop-loss levels with more increased confidence.What's unique about using implied volatility is that it provides a totally objective and data-dependent price range to complement your subjective technical analysis. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

The National Hurricane Center said Erin is moving northwestward to the east of the Bahamas.The storm is expected to bring high surf and possible tropical storm conditions to parts of the Bahamas and the US Atlantic coast.Hurricane Erin is about 780 miles (1,255 km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph (205 km/h). This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.