China’s commerce minister held talks with Kazakhstan’s trade minister.He said China is ready to work with Kazakhstan to promote the upgrading of bilateral trade.He added that China is ready to strengthen cooperation in emerging fields.He called for accelerating the cultivation of new trade formats. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

ING is out with a quick note on the EURUSD and why they think the pair is set to reach 1.20 by year-end.Fed outlook: Expects three consecutive 25bp cuts (Sept, Oct, Dec 2025), with more easing in 2026, bringing the Fed’s terminal rate down to 3.25%.Jobs & inflation: US labor market deterioration (payroll revisions, weaker sentiment) undermines the dollar’s last support; tariff-driven inflation seen as short-lived.USD pressure: Cheaper hedging costs from Fed cuts should trigger more USD selling, alongside seasonal weakness and the risk of a new Fed chair in 2026.Investor flows: Foreign demand for eurozone assets remains strong, with €236bn of purchases in May–June alone.Eurozone story: Fiscal expansion in Germany could deliver 2% growth through 2026, adding euro support and possibly leading the ECB to tighten ahead of the Fed.Forecast: Sees EUR/USD climbing toward 1.20 by year-end 2025 and 1.22–1.25 by late 2026.Risks:US inflation proves sticky, limiting Fed cuts.US jobs market shows resilience.Geopolitical shocks (collapse of peace talks, military escalation).US tariffs on the EU dampen sentiment.European politics (French fiscal risks, bond market pressure).The pair is currently just over 3 big figures away from 1.20. That's also close to the double-top highs the pair got to back in 2021. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

A central bank official told a Russian newspaper that the key rate may fall further this year if inflation slows quickly.The central bank’s forecast does not rule out keeping the rate at 18% until the end of the year.The bank warned that pro-inflationary risks from geopolitics remain. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

Ahead of today's EU & UK flash PMI data, below is a quick snapshot of today's implied volatility support and resistance levels for GBPUSD, EURUSD, EURGBP, EURJPY, GBPCHF & GBPJPY.EURUSD: 1.1700 (resistance) - 1.1600 (support)EURGBP: 0.8680 (resistance) - 0.8630 (support)EURJPY: 172.400 (resistance) - 170.900 (support)GBPUSD: 1.3520 (resistance) - 1.3400 (support)GBPCHF: 1.0850 (resistance) - 1.0760 (support)GBPJPY: 199.00 (resistance) - 197.00 (support)These levels are based on 1-month implied volatility and can be used as dynamic and market-based levels of support and resistance. These levels on their own are quite handy, but when we combine them with technical analysis tools like pivot points, or fibs, or psychological levels, you can identify potential entry, take profit, or stop-loss levels with more increased confidence. What's unique about using implied volatility is that it provides a totally objective and data-dependent price range to complement your subjective technical analysis. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

USD/JPY finished ~1 big figure lower despite limited fresh data and Fedspeak, as BoJ hike odds nudged higher on fears the bank is behind the curve.USD/JPY’s move lagged model/fundamental signalsExpect JPY to be a bigger, steadier contributor to further USD depreciation in the months ahead.Baseline rates view implies ~4% more downside in DXY; falling hedging costs should spur reallocations (Europe) and greater Japan participationEven aside from Fed cuts, diversification/hedging away from USD is supported by lingering US institutional-governance concernsTrade idea: Stay short USD/JPY with a 142 target and 152 stop. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

Fed’s Lisa Cook said she has no intention of being bullied to step down from her position, according to Fox Business reporting on XFed’s Lisa Cook said she intends to take any questions about her financial history seriously as a member of the Federal Reserve.She added she is gathering accurate information to answer legitimate questions and provide facts. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

Quick summary of the POLITICO article below.The US Defense Department has signaled it intends to play only a minimal role in providing long-term security guarantees to Ukraine.During discussions with European allies, Elbridge Colby clarified that the US is unlikely to commit significant troops or air assets for Ukraine’s protectionThis stance has raised concerns among NATO member states, especially given President Trump’s mixed messagingEuropean leaders, including General Dan Caine and NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte, are increasingly uneasy and signaling that European nations must take the lead.These discussions mark the start of what promises to be complex negotiationsThe White House has floated Budapest as a possible venue for further negotiations between Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Putin.Spoke about this earlier in the week as well. I was sceptical on whether the West would want to risk direct war through article 5 security guarantees.Here is a link to the article as well for those who prefer to read it there. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

South Korea PPI Growth YY 0.5% vs 0.5% PriorSouth Korea PPI Growth MM 0.4% vs 0.1% Prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

It was a two-way session that ultimately leaned lower for equities, while Treasuries finished near unchanged after giving back early gains. The early bid in the front end came as political pressure on Fed Governor Cook intensified, but that faded into the FOMC Minutes, which read on the hawkish side with participants more worried about inflation than the labour market.That saw the dollar trim earlier weakness and stocks dip before stabilising a bit into the close. Oil caught a bid on chunky US inventory draws.Geopolitics stayed noisy (Russia’s rhetoric around Ukraine talks and Israel calling up 60k reservists), and in FX the kiwi continued to lag after a dovish-tilting RBNZ cut.Equities:US indices were mixed with a downward bias as the SPX (−0.24%), NDX (−0.58%,) and RUT (−0.32%) all traded in the red. Sector-wise, energy led while big tech softness weighed, with Consumer Discretionary and Technology underperforming. Europe was also mixed, with FTSE 100 firm and DAX softer.FX:The dollar index eased a touch as recent strength paused, but losses were capped by the FOMC Minutes that was read as a hawkish tone with most participants still seeing inflation risks. It's very important to keep in mind that the minutes and the FOMC took place before the big NFP revisions, so it doesn't really give us a clean view of the current sentiment among Fed officials.Safe-haven CHF and JPY outperformed, while NZD underperformed after the RBNZ cut 25bp to 3.00% with two members favouring 50bp and projections lowered across the curve.Commodities:Crude moved higher on a EIA’s bigger-than-expected draw with WTI settling at $62.71 (+$0.94). Precious metals also saw strong upside with gold and silver putting in a decent bounce after yesterday's fall (and that despite the USD staying firmer).Bonds:Treasuries whipsawed and finished little changed overall after an early front-end rally linked to the growing Cook saga with markets pondering implications for Fed independence, and then a fade on the hawkish-tinged Minutes. At the close US10Y settled around 4.297% (−0.5bp) on the session. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

Major indices close lower but the recovery into the close takes away some bearishnessIf Cook is guilty of mortgage fraud what are the normal penalties?Wall Street Journal's Timiraos: Broad support to hold rates steadyUS stocks have moved lower after the FOMC meeting minutesFOMC meeting minutes:It would take time to get clarity on tariffs.Upside risk to inflationNetanyahu has ordered the reduction in timelines for taking control of Hamas strongholdsU.S. Treasury auctions off of $16 billion of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 4.876%Major European indices close mixed. German DAX & Italy's FTSE MIB lower. UK's FTSE higherFed's Waller does not comment on monetary policy or the economyWSJ: Trump considering firing Fed Gov. Cook for cause if she does not resignCrude oil inventories in the current week -6.014M versus -1.759M estimateTrump: Cook must resign now!!!Canada new housing price index for July -0.1% versus -0.2% last monthFed nominee Zervos on CNBC says Fed policy is to restrictiveThe USD is little changed to kickstart the US trading session as Fed Powell awaitedinvestingLive European FX news wrap: Another hot UK CPIUS MBA mortgage applications w.e. 15 August -1.4% vs +10.9% priorThe day got off to a bang with a tweet from the Director of the Federal Housing and Financing Association, Bill Pulte, with accusations that Fed Gov. Cook "potentially" committed mortgage fraud on two properties that she purchased. The accusation is that Cook declared the properties to be her primary residence. The accusation was referred to Attorney General Bondi. Putle tweeted that "Lisa Cook was cooked" and Pres. Trump chimed in that she should resign immediately. She was not charged with a crime. Obviously, it is in Trump's interest to get as many Fed Governor's to resign, be fired, leave the Fed Board as it allows him to appoint new replacements. If Cook did commit mortgage fraud, how is it treated under the law? Is that penalty, grounds for dismissal? Most times, no (see post here)Is it a political ploy? Pulte denied that by saying that they got a "tip" and investigated. If he didn't investigate, he would be doing its job. The dollar did dip a bit on the expectation, the Fed Board, would become the Trump board and rates could be moved lower, even if the votes are 7-5.In other news today, the the FOMC meeting minutes were released with the majority judging the upside risk to inflation as greater of the two risks. "Participants generally pointed to risks to both sides of the Committee's dual mandate, emphasizing upside risk to inflation and downside risk to employment. A majority of participants judged the upside risk to inflation as the greater of these two risks, while several participants viewed the two risks as roughly balanced, and a couple of participants considered downside risk to employment the more salient risk. They added on inflation risks:"Regarding upside risks to inflation, participants pointed to the uncertain effects of tariffs and the possibility of inflation expectations becoming unanchored.Regarding downside risks:"In addition to tariff-induced risks, potential downside risks to employment mentioned by participants included a possible tightening of financial conditions due to a rise in risk premiums, a more substantial deterioration in the housing market, and the risk that the increased use of AI in the workplace may lower employment."The problem with the meeting minutes is that the meeting took place before the US jobs report on August 1 which changed the average job gain over 3 months from 150K to 35K in one fell swoop. That changed the view from an inflation focus to a dual focus It is hard to justify a cut on inflation with it well above 2% Consumer Prices (CPI)Headline CPI (YoY): 2.7%Core CPI (YoY): 3.1%Producer Prices (PPI)Headline PPI (YoY): 3.3%Core PPI (YoY): 3.7%US stocks moved sharply lower with the Nasdaq down over 400 points at session lows. However, as the day wore on, the price started to recover. The NASDAQ index is still closing down -142.10 or 0.67% on the day, but averted a more bearish technical close (see post here). . The S&P index also close lower but only by -0.24%. The Dow industrial average close marginally higher by 0.04%.European indices were also mixed in trading today with UK's FTSE 100 higher, German and Italy indices lower in the other indices little changed. US yields are closing marginally lower with the two-year down -0.04 basis points, while the 10 year is down -1.1 basis points. The 20 year note auction was met with a little bit better than average demand. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Zelenskiy’s chief of staff Yermak said the mistake of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum must not be repeated with current security guarantees.He said Ukraine’s allies have already begun active work on the military component of security guarantees.Yermak added that Ukraine is working with allies on a plan if Russia prolongs the war or disrupts agreements on leaders’ meetings. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

RBNZ Governor Hawkesby said the reaction to recent interest rate cuts has so far been slower than anticipated.He added that global uncertainties have had a prolonged impact on business and consumer confidence in New Zealand.RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk said it is not good for anybody that tariffs exist.RBNZ Chief Economist Conway said New Zealand house prices are expected to stay flat, at least for the next year.Hawkesby said the argument for a 50bp cut was that businesses and consumers were being overly cautious and needed a substantial kick.RBNZ Governor Hawkesby said increased tariffs and trade barriers effectively represent a negative demand shock for the world.RBNZ Governor Hawkesby said inflation is under control now.He added that the economy is at the tail end of the inflation process.Just as a quick reference, here is the link to his press conference following the RBNZ decision. Also, for more context on what happened yesterday make sure to check out the statement and minutes summary as well as a quick rundown of the biggest changes they made in the Monetary Policy report. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

The broader US stock indices fell. The NASDAQ index has fallen three of the last four days. The S&P index has fallen four straight days.Today's fall to session lows saw the S&P move below its 100-hour moving average and briefly below its 200-hour moving average. However, a late day rally did see the price move back above both. The price for the S&P closed at 6395.78 above the 100-hour moving average at 6382.43.For the NASDAQ index, at session lows the index was down -408.96 points. Its move to the downside saw the price tumble below its 200-hour moving average at 21140.02. The low price reached 20905.99. However, like the S&P, the late-day rally has taken the price back higher, and the index is closing above its 200-hour moving average. The closing level is 21170.19.A snapshot of the closing levels shows:Dow industrial average +16.04 points or 0.04% at 44938.13S&P index -15.59 points or -0.24% at 6395.78.NASDAQ index -142.10 points or -0.67% at 21172.86.A deeper negative technical close was ultimately avoided. Sellers had their chance, but momentum failed to extend lower. The major indices remain near key moving averages, leaving the door open for a renewed push to the downside tomorrow. For now, though, the close wasn’t as damaging as it could have been, and the potential for corrective upside remains very much in play. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The day began with allegations that Fed Governor Lisa Cook engaged in mortgage fraud. Specifically, she was accused of purchasing two properties in quick succession and claiming both as primary residences. Typically, designating a property as a primary residence allows for lower interest rates compared to a second home, which lenders view as a greater risk.The details remain unclear. According to a letter sent to Attorney General Bondi, FHFA Director Pulte raised the accusations, but the timeline and context are uncertain. Did she sell one property within a month? A year? Without clarity, it’s difficult to assess the seriousness of the charges or whether they amount to more than technical infractions.The broader question is what penalties normally apply in such cases. For an ordinary borrower, misrepresenting a primary residence could mean higher rates retroactively, repayment demands, or financial penalties — but not typically job loss. The key issue is whether such an allegation, substantiated or not, would affect Cook’s ability to perform her role at the Federal Reserve. Is it a fireable offense? Did it affect her job performance?I queried ChatGPT and asked what the penalties are for falsely claiming a home as your primary residence. Below are the responses:1. Mortgage Fraud (Lenders / Loan Applications)If you falsely claim a home is your primary residence to get a lower mortgage rate or lower down payment, that is mortgage fraud.Penalties can include:Loan acceleration (lender demands immediate repayment).Foreclosure if repayment isn’t possible.Fines and restitution.In severe cases, criminal charges — mortgage fraud is a federal offense, punishable by up to 30 years in prison and $1 million fine, though that’s for large-scale or willful fraud. Most cases historically result in financial penalties or loan consequences, not prison.2. Tax Treatment of Capital Gains on a Primary ResidenceThe IRS allows you to exclude up to $250,000 ($500,000 married) of capital gains if the home was your primary residence for at least 2 of the past 5 years.If you misrepresent that a property was your primary residence:The IRS can disallow the exclusion.You’d owe back taxes, interest, and penalties on the capital gains.Civil fraud penalties can be up to 75% of the underpaid tax.Criminal fraud charges are rarer but possible if misrepresentation was willful.3. Property Tax / Homestead ExemptionsSome states/counties offer lower property tax rates if the home is a primary residence.If misrepresented:Back taxes and interest are due.Some jurisdictions add a penalty of 10–50% of the unpaid taxes.Repeat or deliberate fraud can bring criminal charges at the state level.✅ Summary:Lenders → mortgage fraud (serious, possible criminal).IRS → lose capital gains exclusion + taxes/penalties.Local property tax → back taxes + fines.In most historical cases, the biggest impact is financial (back taxes, penalties, loss of benefits) — jail time is usually reserved for larger, willful fraud schemes.What happened? What were the implications? Has she continued to make the payments on both places? Did she sell the properties? Is she living in one of the places as her primary residence?That is what lawyers are for. One can assume that she will have increased lawyer bills.Can Trump fire her?Remember, Trump wanted to fire Powell one Monday morning after a few extra bogeys on the golf course on Sunday (or something similar – he was angry), but was advised that it wasn't possible. Nevertheless, it's always worth a try. He did fire the BLS Commissioner, but that was more job-related (not doing her job). Besides who knows, if there was some payoff that made sense. Some people don't want to stay in the frying pan, and would rather sign an NDA and collect a lump sum, or pension. I don't think of BLS Commissioner has the post-firing financial and job bounce back that a Fed Gov. or Fed chair potentially has.Chairman Powell seems to be in it for the long haul. What will Lisa Cook do?So far, the letter is "allegations" of "potentially" committing mortgage fraud, followed up by some strong words and more allegations of potentially committing mortgage fraud.It is too early to tell. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Broad support to hold rates steady, with only Waller and Bowman dissenting in favor of a cut.Division on tariffs: some officials believe clarity will come in the months ahead; others argue it’s not feasible to wait for complete clarity before adjusting policy.Majority judged inflation risks as greater than risks to employment.Doves (Waller, Bowman, allies) argue tariff-driven price increases should be ignored and are pushing for cuts as early as September.Hawks highlight firmer price pressures, especially in services, crediting the Fed’s steady stance for containing tariffs.Kansas City Fed’s Schmid pushed back against “inflation ex-tariffs” calculations, calling them meaningless.The minutes reveal growing division within the Fed, setting up a contentious debate ahead of the September meeting.Since the July meeting, the debate has sharpened. Doves like Waller and Bowman argue tariff-related price increases should be ignored and are pushing for cuts as early as September, backed by weaker labor data. Hawks, however, see firmer price pressures, especially in services, and credit the Fed’s steady stance for containing tariff effects. Kansas City Fed President Schmid underscored the divide by rejecting Bowman’s practice of calculating “inflation ex-tariffs,” calling it meaningless. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The US stocks have moved lower after the FOMC meeting minutes. The S&P is down -36.62 points or -0.57% at 6374.73NASDAQ index is down -244.63 points or -1.15% at 21070.Dow industrial average is down 88 points or -0.20% at 44834.In the US debt market, yields are lower with a modestly steeper yield curve: 2 year yield 3.737%, -1.7 basis points5-year yield 3.802%, -1.9 basis points10 year yield 4.290%, -1.1 basis points30 year yield 4.898%, -0.3 basis pointsUSDJPY: Looking at the daily chart of the USDJPY, the pair remains between the 100-day moving average on the downside at 145.44, and the 200-day moving average above at 149.16. The price is also below its 38.2% retracement of the move up from the 2022 low to the 2024 high. That level comes in 148.678. The 50% midpoint is at 144.581. The current price is at 147.20.The last few months has seen the price remains between those two extremes with the exception of the day before the US jobs report on July 31. On August 1, the price tumbled back between the moving average levels. Since that time the price is been up and down in very volatile price action as the market is "snookered", and does not know which way to go. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The highlighted points from the FOMC July meetingAlmost all participants at Fed's July 29–30 meeting viewed it as appropriate to maintain the benchmark interest rate in 4.25%–4.50% rangeParticipants also noted it would take time to have more clarity on the magnitude and persistence of higher tariffs’ effects on inflationParticipants assessed impact of tariffs had become more apparent in goods prices, but overall effects on economy, inflation remained to be seenSome participants said it would not be feasible or appropriate to wait for complete clarity on the tariffs’ effects on inflation before adjusting monetary policySeveral participants said the current target range for the federal funds rate may not be far above its neutral levelA couple of participants highlighted the role of the standing repo facility in monetary policy implementation and expressed support for further study of central clearing of SRFFed staff’s real GDP projection for 2025 through 2027 was similar to the one prepared for the June meetingParticipants said consensus statement would be designed to be robust across a wide range of economic conditionsParticipants noted that the policy committee was close to finalizing changes to the consensus statement as part of framework reviewFed staff said GDP projection for 2025 through 2027 was similar to the one prepared for June meetingParticipants said consensus statement would be designed to be robust across a wide range of economic conditionsFed dissenters appeared alone in favoring rate cut at July meeting, minutes showThe majority viewed upside risk to inflation as the greater riskSeveral saw the risks as balancedA couple saw the employment as the more salient risk.Important to note is that the Fed minutes came before the employment report released on August 1 which change the view of the US employment. Although a majority of the participants that there upside risk to inflation, and several saw the risks of as balanced while two (Bowman and Waller) saw employment as the higher risk, it is reflective of a Fed that is divided.However, the bias is still to sit tight, see the impact and go from there. Comments from most Fed officials since the employment report have been along those lines. With the Fed not acting between meetings (unless it's the absolute emergency). Seeing an additional report report, seeing an additional CPI and PPI report is important.Parsing out qualifiers from the minutes:Majority ViewA majority of participants judged that upside risk to inflation was the greater concern compared to downside risk to employment.Participants generally expected inflation to increase in the near term due to tariffs.Participants generally agreed the Fed was well positioned to respond flexibly to incoming data with policy moderately restrictive.Participants generally agreed upside risk to inflation and downside risk to employment both remained elevated.Almost All ParticipantsAlmost all participants viewed it as appropriate to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50%.Almost all participants agreed that, with the labor market still solid, the Committee was well positioned to respond to developments in a timely way.Almost all members voted to hold rates steady; only two dissented, preferring a 25 bp cut.Some ParticipantsSome participants observed business reluctance to hire or fire amid elevated uncertainty.Some participants mentioned indicators pointing to softening in labor demand, including slower job growth and rising youth unemployment.Some participants argued slower output or job growth wasn’t necessarily slack, citing reduced immigration.Some participants noted consumer spending was supported by financial conditions, even as growth slowed.Some participants judged it would not be feasible or appropriate to wait for full clarity on tariffs’ effects before adjusting policy.Some participants emphasized tariff persistence depends critically on monetary policy stance.Several ParticipantsSeveral participants emphasized inflation had exceeded 2% for an extended period, raising risks to long-term expectations.Several participants noted low, stable unemployment reflected both low hiring and low layoffs.Several participants stated they expected growth to remain low in the second half of the year.Several participants observed slower income growth was weighing on consumer spending.Several participants remarked policy uncertainty was slowing business investment, though sentiment had recently improved.Several participants noted vulnerabilities from elevated asset valuations.Several participants commented the current funds rate may not be far above neutral.Several participants observed balance sheet reduction had proceeded smoothly, with reserves still ample but needing close monitoring.A Couple of ParticipantsA couple of participants suggested tariff effects were masking the underlying inflation trend, which was close to target.A couple of participants remarked that over time, resolution of policy uncertainty would support growth.A couple of participants highlighted stable or low credit card delinquencies as supportive of household spending.A couple of participants noted vulnerabilities in banks from higher long-term yields causing unrealized losses.A couple of participants discussed vulnerabilities in foreign exchange swaps as sources of dollar funding but with rollover risk.A couple of participants highlighted the role of the SRF in policy implementation and supported studying central clearing.A couple of members dissented, preferring a 25 bp cut, judging inflation (ex-tariffs) close to 2% and downside employment risk higher.A Few ParticipantsA few participants stressed tariff effects would likely be one-time increases in price level.A few participants warned tariffs and supply chain issues could lead to stubbornly elevated inflation.A few participants observed firms were using strategies to absorb tariff costs (supplier switching, automation, tighter margins).A few participants noted weak housing demand with falling prices.A few participants pointed to headwinds in the agricultural sector.A few participants expressed concern over vulnerabilities in Treasury market structure (hedge funds, low depth).A few participants warned abrupt declines in reserves could occur around key settlement dates.Various ParticipantsVarious participants emphasized monetary policy’s central role in preventing tariffs from unanchoring inflation expectations.Various participants discussed stablecoins after passage of the GENIUS Act, highlighting both efficiency benefits and risks to financial stability.Fed StaffFed staff projected real GDP growth similar to June, with weaker consumption and investment offset by easier financial conditions.Fed staff inflation projection slightly lower, with tariffs expected to boost prices this year and in 2026 before returning to 2% by 2027.Fed staff judged risks to real activity skewed to downside, while risks to inflation remained skewed to upside. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its July meeting. The market will be parsing the text for clues on the timing and scope of future rate cuts. The Federal Reserve Rates unchanged at the last meeting, but there was a unusual dual dissent (the first since 1993) with Fed governors Waller and Bauman both voting for a 25 basis point cut. Their justification was that policy was to restrictive, that the tariffs had not led to sharply higher inflation, and that the risk to employment were equally as concerning.The majority of the committee were concerned about the implications of the tariffs on inflation, and felt at the time that the employment situation was healthy.Since and however, the employment report released on August 1 was much weaker than expected with the revisions making for the average job gain of only 35,000 over the last three months.The markets are pricing in a 84% chance of a rate cut in September and another by year end. Bottom line: The minutes are likely to confirm a divided but cautious Fed, balancing inflation risks tied to tariffs against the case for insurance cuts. It will be curious to see if they characterize employment as being less strong than was known at the time (i.e. prior to the last employment report) Investors will be also looking for whether Powell and core leadership are leaning toward a gradual easing cycle. In which case, the focus on Jackson Hole will increase the view that the Fed chair will be more dovish than expectations.CNBC conducted a survey and 69% expected Powell's speech will be more neutral 14% expected it to be more dovish. 3% expected it to be hawkish, 14% expected that he would give no outlook whatsoeverFor your guide, the FOMC minutes are the official record of the meeting, but they are not a verbatim transcript.Here’s how it works:Initial source: The minutes are drafted by Fed staff based on notes and audio recordings from the meeting.Review process: They are then circulated to FOMC participants (voting and non-voting members) for comments and corrections. This ensures accuracy and allows members to clarify or refine their remarks.Public release: After this review, the minutes are approved and released about three weeks after the meeting which is today.So the minutes reflect the collective and reviewed summary of the discussions—accurate in capturing the themes, arguments, and divisions, but more polished and structured than the raw dialogue.The actual verbatim transcripts (word-for-word) are released with a five-year lag, not at the three-week mark.The declines in the US indices have abated go into the release: S&P index -22.56 points or -0.35% at 6389.11. At session lows, the index was down -67.51 points.NASDAQ index is down -170 points or -0.79% at 21145.15. Its 200 hour moving average is being tested (from below) at 21144, after falling below the moving average for the first time since August 1). At session lows, the index was down -408.96 points.Dow industrial average is unchangedLater at 3 PM, Feds Bostic is scheduled to speak. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Netanyahu has ordered the reduction in the timeline for taking control of Hamas strongholds.Expect more aggressive military operations. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

High-yield: 4.876%Tail -0.1 basis points versus six month average of -0.2 basis pointsWI level at the time of of the auction 4.877%Bid to cover 2.54X vs six month average of 2.63XDirects 26.5% vs six month average of 18.3%Indirects 60.64% vs six month average of 67.6%Dealers 12.88% vs six month average of 14.1%AUCTION GRADE: C+Direct and indirect cancel each other but dealers a saddled with 1.3% less than normal which is a positive. The bid to cover was a little less than normal. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.