Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.As the Wednesday session draws to a close, NA markets are seeing meaningful shifts across the geopolitical and financial landscape.The U.S. dollar staged a strong rebound on the markets front, confirming the thesis that the year’s low for the greenback has likely been reached. The fresh FOMC Minutes release is triggering a brief pullback, but the dollar remains firmly above its August highs.This strength came despite Gold touching the $4,000 level, a consequent rally typically dampening USD momentum. Read More: Who said that the USD and Gold can't rally together?What to take from the October 2025 FOMC Minutes Meanwhile, optimism grew north of the border as a trade and industrial cooperation deal between the U.S. and Canada is taking shape. Through some meetings taking place yesterday and today, Canada's PM Mark Carney met with Donald Trump to discuss the key steel and auto sectors further, signaling progress on a deal. – These sectors are posing the most significant disagreements between the two neighbours.The agreement, expected to ease inflationary pressures while supporting the slowing economies (particularly Canada), is being viewed as a double positive for both countries. Canadian equities are reacting accordingly, with aluminum and auto-related stocks outperforming mid-week.On the geopolitical side, reports from Axios suggest that a tentative deal has been concluded, as indicated by one of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s closest reporters. Markets will now turn their attention to the news from the Egypt meeting – This provides another fundamental boost to the US Dollar, as President Trump brokered the 20-point deal.Overall, North American markets are closing the mid-week session on a constructive note, supported by a resilient U.S. dollar, constructive trade headlines, and improving geopolitical sentiment. Let's dive right into a few charts to get an overview on North American Markets, from US and Canadian equity Markets performance, USD and CAD performance to USDCAD and DXY charts.North-American Indices Performance North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView Despite some individual names rallying, the TSX (Canadian Equity Market) has failed to make new highs but still overperformed the S&P 500 and Dow Jones on the weekly.European stocks are nonetheless dominating their North American peers, with Nasdaq still trying to play catch up as the price action in tech continues to explode today.Dollar Index 8H Chart Dollar Index 8H Chart, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView As mentioned in the introduction, the US Dollar has strengthened considerably this week as Markets continue to disregard the Government shutdown.From what it seems, the USD rally really is about the Middle East deal putting back American diplomacy on the front lines. Of course, weakness in other currencies is playing its part in the ongoing flows.The current candles don't look like continuation ones; sellers don't look very hungry. A small retracement has the highest odds of happening, but focus on the daily close.To access the detailed levels and a further analysis of the Greenback, I invite you to take a look at this piece released this morning.US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors USD vs other Majors since last Monday, October 8, 2025 - Source: TradingView. The overall change against its counterparts doesn't look too big for the USD, but I'd like to point that most of the rally has occurred throughout this week.Only the AUD takes the crown since beginning October.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors CAD vs other Majors, October 8, 2025 - Source: TradingView. The CAD performance is still not the brightest but it has stopped bleeding against other majors. The rest will be to see if a deal actually materializes and may allow the Loonie to rally back against European currencies particularly, against which it is at multi-decade lows.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD USDCAD 4H Chart, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView Not much has moved since yesterday's USDCAD analysis. Still held in a triangle formation, with both the USD and CAD strengthening in tandem, it leaves a relative strength outlook a bit blurry.Watch headlines regarding a deal that would give a further advantage to the Canadian Dollar.Levels to place on your USDCAD charts:Resistance LevelsWeekly highs 1.39866Session highs 1.39715Friday Sep 29 resistance around 1.39601.40 Major resistanceApril 3 lows around 1.4050Support Levelsmini-support line & MA 50 1.39401.3925 Aug 22 highs current pivot1.3850 to 1.3860 support1.38 Handle +/- 150 pips1.3550 Main 2025 SupportUS and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar In the absence of BLS data (Including Jobless Claims and Non-Farm Payrolls), Fed Speakers are appearing in masses and will fill up the North American calendar.A government shutdown is not happening in Canada, hence Markets will await their Employment data (Friday morning 8:30 AM ET) which has been degrading quite a bit as of late.If a deal pulls through, this could be a potential low for the Canadian Labor market. Let's see how all of the talks go.Of course, do not forget the weekly University-of-Michigan Consumer sentiment and Inflation expectations Friday at 10:00 A.M.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The FOMC Minutes for the September meeting just got released.Overall, the minutes largely reinforced what markets had priced in: the Fed sees room to ease, but is willing to wait for clearer signs. (They might have trouble to do so with the incumbent Government shutdown preventing data releases)There has been some mentions of the current financial conditions being "not particularly restrictive" and some more upside risks to Employment – As the Fed looks to focus more on Employment looking forward, "upside risks" can be considered dovish.Nonetheless, many members did emphasize "upside risks to their outlook for inflation" which puts up Neutral Rate estimates on the long-run. You can access the Minutes remark right here.The most important mentions were:"borrowing costs generally declined but remained elevated relative to their average post–Global Financial Crisis (GFC) levels" on Interest Rates“Almost all respondents to the Desk survey expected a 25 basis point cut in the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting … and around half expected an additional cut at the October meeting.” on future FOMC decisions"the projection of real GDP growth was revised up somewhat, on balance, for this year through 2028, primarily reflecting stronger-than-expected data for both consumer spending and business investment" on the Economy.There has also been some mentions of geopolitics, with the FED looking progressively into how it will affect the outlook.To resume, the Fed is not afraid of the Economy falling for now, some heavier concerns for Employment and high concerns for inflation.US Dollar reactions Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dollar initially formed a doji but is starting to sell off – Watch for some dovish pricing but except for anything crazy, markets shouldn't go too far. The Minutes rarely are such market movers.You can also access our most recent in-depth US Dollar analysis here.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This article is a follow up from the previous article on the Australian Dollar titled AUD/USD Forecast: Are Fresh Highs Incoming After RBA Rate Hold?Is the Aussie Dollar Poised for Gains? As discussed in the previous Australian Dollar article titled AUD/USD Forecast: Are Fresh Highs Incoming After RBA Rate Hold? The Aussie Dollar may be poised for a rally.Since the interest rate decision by the RBA the Aussie Dollar has flattered to deceive. AUD/USD has faced a challenge given the US Dollars recent renaissance but that rally is likely to run out of steam soon in my opinion.The fact that the RBA are holding rates and the Fed expected to cut bodes well for the AUD/USD pair to rise higher.The US government shutdown appears to be benefitting the US Dollar at the moment and there is a possibility that this persists for a little while longer.What this could mean for AUD/USD is that we could see a continued grind over the coming days and weeks until the US government shutdown ends and US data releases begin filtering through.Commodity Rally to Benefit the Australian Dollar? There is another factor to consider and that is the continued rally of commodity markets such as Gold, Silver and Copper. The Australian Dollar is considered a commodity currency and usually gains when the precious metal markets are on the rise.This definitely adds weight to the theory that a rally for the Aussie Dollar may be in the offing. The technicals further support the idea for the AUD/USD to rally higher. Let us take a look at why.Technical Analysis - AUD/USD From a technical point of view, AUD/USD has been consolidating and edging lower over the last 6 or so trading days,Having broken the bull flag pattern which was in play the pair looked poised for a rally but has since had a pullback to a key level of confluence.The level/area in question around 0.6550-0.6500 houses the 50 and 10-day MAs. The daily candle also looks poised to close with a downside wick highlighting the potential buying pressure in this price zone.If an upside rally does materialize, the measured move potential from the flag breakout is around 70 pips.This would mean a potential retest for AUD/USD of the recent highs at around the 6685 handle.A move beyond that level would bring the 0.6750 and 0.7000 psychological level into focus.If AUD/USD pushes lower from here, immediate support rests at 0.6542, 0.6530 and 0.6500. A break below 0.6500 could open up a retest of the 200-day MA, which rests at the 0.6418 handle.AUD/USD Daily Chart, October 8, 2025 Source:TradingView.com Client Sentiment Data - AUD/USD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Long on the AUD/USD with 60% of traders Net-Long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that so many traders are Long means AUD/USD could fall in the near-term.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (08/10/2025): In the most recent episode, we discuss the astronomical rally in precious metal pricing, the knock-on effects of the US government shutdown on Fed monetary policy, alongside a preview of FOMC minutes due to be released later today. Join OANDA Financial Writer Christian Norman, Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Finding support yesterday, USD/CHF trades 0.54% higher in today’s session, at 0.80251, crucially above the key level of 0.8000 for the first time since late September.In recent memory, the 0.80000 psychological level has presented a key area of resistance; therefore, the subsequent few sessions remain as important as ever if bullish momentum is to be sustained.USD/CHF: Key takeaways 08/10/2025 Mainly owing to dollar strength, with the dollar strength index (DXY) recently posting four-week highs, USD/CHF has found some buying support, but remains down 11.57% year-to-dateWhile seemingly more at peace with a strong franc than in recent memory, deflationary risks remain prevalent in the Swiss economy, with September’s CPI reading coming in lower than expected at 0.2% YoYOtherwise, and amid the current US Government Shutdown, a flight to dollar liquidity is offering some uplift to USD pricing Read more FX coverage from MarketPulse: Weakness showdown: NZD vs JPY in the FX markets Currency Power Balance, OANDA Global Markets, 08/10/2025 USD/CHF: Dollar upside the main catalyst for dollar-franc rally Trading at lows not seen since 2022, it would appear that markets are not entirely comfortable with the current position of the dollar.While there is no secret that 2025 has been a poor year for dollar performance, recent upside has been coined a ‘repricing trade’ by some, suggesting a level of technical buying from multi-year lows.Simultaneously, we’ve seen other major currencies weaken, particularly the Japanese yen, with the new dovish leadership allowing the DXY to strengthen somewhat.As ever, let’s discuss some of the major fundamental themes to consider when trading USD/CHF currently:High interest rates: Put simply, the United States offers the highest interest rates available across all G10 countries. While this is just one piece of the currency puzzle, higher rates in comparison to other currencies attract global interest, offering a significant carry advantage - especially in the case of USD/CHF.Technical buying: As a personal anecdote, I once knew a trader who would only ever buy the dollar when trading FX. Case in point, markets are not accustomed to a weak dollar, especially over the last decade or so. As such, and in line with other technical analysis principles, some view current dollar pricing as an opportunity to get long.Flight to liquidity: While logically, a US government shutdown would bode poorly for the greenback, this has proven true in recent sessions. Although confidence in the US government has been somewhat undermined, a flight to global liquidity in an effort to balance currency risk is bolstering USD gains. This phenomenon is relatively unique to the dollar, owing to its status as the world's #1 reserve currency. US Dollar Strength Index (DXY) & Swiss Franc Strength Index (SXY), TVC, TradingView, 08/10/2025 USD/CHF: Persistent Swiss deflationary risk casts shadow over safe-haven status Met with persistently weak inflation, coming in below expectations at 0.2% in September’s report, the Swiss economy is dangerously close to deflationary territory, raising serious questions about the reliability of the franc as a safe-haven currency and fueling speculation of a return to negative interest rates.While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has made at least some suggestions that they are less concerned with CHF strength, it would be foolish to suggest that policy intervention remains entirely off the table.As such, markets are apprehensive about taking further USD/CHF shorts, wary of a potential for intervention ruining an otherwise profitable trade, effectively limiting USD/CHF downside in the short-term.USD/CHF: Technical Analysis 08/10/2025USD/CHF: Daily (D1) chart analysis: USD/CHF, D1, OANDA, TradingView, 08/10/2025 Breaking out of a downwards descending channel in today’s session, the next few trading days will be crucial if USD/CHF hopes to extend weekly gains above 0.80000.While a dovish Fed might put a lid on USD gains, should the price be able to form a base, we can expect some further upside.Using the default period of 14, the RSI also has some way to go before overbought levels, suggesting that further upside is possible. Price targets and support/resistance levels:Price target 1 (R1) - 78.6% Fib - 0.80575Support 1 (S1) - 78.6% Fib - 0.79935Support 2 (S2) - Bottom of range - 0.79465 Otherwise, and to secure a bearish move, price would have to break the second support. In this scenario, the next stop would likely be around 0.79095. Read about today’s rally in precious metal pricing: Gold (XAU/USD) Prices Up 1.5% on the Day. Is Gold's $4,000 Breakout Sustainable? Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Stocks Retreat Tracking Wall Street Most Read: USD/JPY Price Outlook: Key Levels, BoJ, and Political RisksAsian stocks fell taking their cues from Wall Street. Market participants are starting to become more careful because they are worried that stock prices have gone too high (stretched valuations) and that too much money is being invested into Artificial Intelligence.This caution is making them doubt whether the recent market gains will last.As a result, Asian stocks are heading for their biggest drop in two weeks, following declines in both the MSCI All-Country World Index and the U.S. S&P 500, both of which slipped after a seven-day winning streak.Since the stock markets in China and South Korea were closed for a long holiday, the focus was elsewhere. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell by 1%. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei index pulled back slightly, easing 0.35%, after it had reached a record high in the previous trading session.On the data front, Wednesday showed Japanese wage growth slowing to its weakest pace in three months, with real pay continuing its downward streak. This adds further confusion for market participants hoping for a Bank of Japan rate hike in the near future.RBNZ Deliver 50 bps "Circuit Breaker" Cut The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to cut its main interest rate by 50 bps, bringing the rate down to 2.5%. This was a bigger cut than most people expected, as many thought it would only be 25 basis points. This move pushes borrowing costs down to their lowest level since the middle of 2022.Officials said the economy still has spare capacity and activity at home is soft, and they fear cautious households and firms could still slow the recovery, so they chose an easing. Inflation sits near the top of the 1‑3% band, but it may fall back to the 2% centre by mid‑2026 as pressure on tradable goods eases.Headline inflation is about 3% in Q3, driven by higher admin prices, food and import costs, although core non‑tradable inflation keeps easing. Supply limits and policy uncertainty keep activity weak, while consumer spending edges up. The Committee says it could ease further if needed to keep inflation near 2% target.European Session - Bank & Energy Stocks Lead Gains European stock markets edged up slightly on Wednesday, with the main STOXX 600 index rising 0.2%. Gains were led by the banking and energy sectors, though overall growth was limited by sharp declines in both automobile and technology stocks.The Italian stock index stood out with a 0.5% gain. The bank sector was the biggest gainer, rising 0.7% with strong performance from British, French, and Italian lenders. Oil and gas stocks also added 0.4% as oil prices continued to climb.However, the automobile sector fell 1.5% after Germany's BMW dropped 5.3%. BMW cut its profit forecast for 2025 due to changes in US tariffs and slower growth in the Chinese market. Rival Mercedes also fell 3.1%.Technology stocks declined 1.1%. This followed news that US lawmakers are calling for wider bans on selling chipmaking equipment to China, hurting chip-related companies like ASML.Market participants are also keeping a close eye on France, where President Emmanuel Macron is facing growing pressure to either step down or call an immediate parliamentary election due to the deepening political crisis. Despite this, the French stock index managed a small 0.2% gain early in the day.On the FX front, the US dollar surged to its strongest level against the Japanese yen in almost eight months during Asian trading on Wednesday. The dollar rose as much as 0.5% to trade at 152.64 yen, as investors focused on the expected economic policies of Japan's new political leader, Sanae Takaichi.Separately, the New Zealand dollar (kiwi) tumbled by as much as 1% to a low of 0.5739. This sharp drop came after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised the market by cutting its main interest rate by a larger-than-expected 50 basis points.This volatility spread to the neighboring Australian dollar, which slipped 0.4% to 0.6558.Overall, the dollar index (which measures the dollar's strength against other currencies) rose as much as 0.4% to 98.9320, its highest level since early August. This was partly due to US President Donald Trump's threat to fire a large number of federal workers.Against the dollar, the euro was down 0.4% at $1.1617, and the British pound fell 0.3% to 1.33885.Finally, the offshore Chinese yuan was mostly unchanged, trading at 7.1466 yuan per dollar.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices increased by about 1% on Wednesday. Investors largely ignored earlier worries about too much oil supply, as they had already processed the news that the OPEC+ group plans to limit its production increase for next month.Specifically, Brent crude rose 0.96% to $66.08 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 1.07% to reach $62.39.For more on the OPEC + output hike and Oil prices, read OPEC + Delivers Modest Output Hike, Brent Crude Rises 1.7%. What Next for Oil Prices?Gold prices reached a significant milestone on Wednesday, climbing above the $4,000/oz mark for the first time ever, setting a new record.This surge is due to investors looking for a safe place to put their money because of growing economic and geopolitical uncertainty. The price is also being boosted by strong expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again.Spot gold rose 0.9% to trade at $4,017.16 per ounce. US gold futures for December delivery also gained 0.9% to reach $4,040 per ounce.Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) set to challenge $4,000 as prices renew all-time highs in today’s session - Potential targets and price forecastEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, it is a rather quiet day from a data perspective for both the US and European sessions.There is once again a host of speakers from the Federal Reserve, ECB and BoE throughout the day. Later in the US session, market participants will be waiting on the release of the Federal Reserve minutes from the September meeting.The release may prove interesting especially with the appointment of Stephen Miran ahead of the September meeting. It will be interesting to gauge where Federal Reserve policymakers stand in terms of rate cuts moving forward.For more information on the week ahead, read Markets Weekly Outlook - Navigating the US Shutdown & Global Trends as Equity Markets Continue to Soar For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - DAX Index From a technical standpoint, the DAX index has pulled back to the top of the channel it broke out of last week.This sets the index up for a potential 900 point rally to the upside.The DAX has consolidated over the last two days but does appear primed for a rally today with a positive start to the European session.Immediate upside resistance for now rests at 24500 before the 24665 swing high from July 10 comes into focus.A move to the downside will face support at 24200 before the confluence area around 24000 comes into focus.DAX Index Daily Chart, October 8, 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways AUD/NZD nears breakout: The pair rallied 1.10% since 6 October 2025, approaching the key long-term resistance at 1.1470.RBNZ turns more dovish: The central bank cut its cash rate by 50 bps to 2.5%, signaling openness to further easing to boost demand.Yield spread widens: The AU–NZ 10-year bond yield spread expanded to 0.16%, reinforcing bullish momentum for AUD/NZD.Technical setup remains strong: Uptrend within a medium-term ascending channel; breakout above 1.1470 could target 1.1510 next. This is a follow-up analysis and timely update of our prior report, “AUD/NZD: Bullish en route towards a 10-year high at 1.1470 with a less dovish RBA”, published on 30 September 2025.Since our last analysis, the price actions of the AUD/NZD cross pair have staged the expected up move and rallied by 1.10% from Monday, 6 October 2025 low of 1.1320 to print a current intraday high of 1.1446 on Wednesday, 8 October 2025, just a whisker below the key resistance of 1.1470.RBNZ maintained dovish monetary policy guidance with a larger 50 bps rate cut The bulk of the bullish movement seen in the AUD/NZD since the start of this week has come today, exuberated by a much more dovish New Zealand central bank.The RNBZ cut its short-term official cash rate by 50 basis points, more than the median consensus forecast of a 25-bps cut to 2.5% from 3%. It is the eighth rate cut by the RBNZ since it kick-started its current interest rate-cutting cycle in August 2024 from 5.50%. Today’s rate cut brought the official cash rate to its lowest level since mid-2022.The RBNZ’s latest monetary policy statement signalled its commitment to maintaining a dovish stance, expressing willingness to continue monetary easing and openness to further rate cuts aimed at stimulating demand, while placing less emphasis on immediate inflation risks.A further steepening of the AU/NZ sovereign yield spread supports AUD/NZD bulls Fig. 1: AU & NZ unemployment rate with yield spreads of AU/NZ government bonds as of 8 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) The more dovish monetary policy guidance from the RBNZ than its antipodean counterpart has triggered a further steepening of the 2-year and 10-year yield spreads between Australian and New Zealand sovereign bonds.Currently, the 10-year spread with a longer tenure has just broken above its October 2024 peak of 0.12% and is trading at 0.16% at the time of writing.Hence, the 2-year and 10-year yield spreads between Australian and New Zealand sovereign bonds are likely to widen further, which in turn could propel a further bullish movement in the AUD/NZD cross pair.Let’s now focus on the short-term (1to 3 days) trajectory, key elements, and key levels to watch on the AUD/NZD from a technical analysis perspective. Fig. 2: AUD/NZD minor trend as of 8 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 3: AUD/NZD long-term secular trend as of 8 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Maintain bullish bias in any minor setbacks for the AUD/NZD with adjusted short-term pivotal support at 1.1370. A clearance above the key long-term secular resistance of 1.1470 may trigger a further bullish acceleration towards the next intermediate resistance at 1.1510 (also a Fibonacci extension) in the first step.Key elements The price actions of the AUD/NZD have continued their upward movement within a medium-term ascending channel in place in place since the 20 August 2025 low (see Fig. 2).The upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel will be projected as a resistance at 1.1510 for the AUD/NZD (see Fig. 2).The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the AUD/NZD has reached an extreme overbought level of 83 at the time of writing, but without any bearish divergence condition. These observations suggest that the AUD/NZD is likely to see a minor pull-back first below 1.1435 at this juncture before its next bullish impulsive up move sequence materialises (see Fig. 2).The 1.1470 long-term secular resistance of the AUD/NZD is defined as the upper limit of a 10-year-plus bullish basing configuration in place since April 2015 (see Fig. 3).In addition, the monthly MACD trend indicator of the AUD/NZD has continued to drift higher above its centreline after a retest of its ascending channel support. This observation suggests the potential start of a long-term secular bullish trend for the AUD/NZD, which increases the odds of a major bullish breakout above 1.1470 (see Fig. 3).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below the 1.1370 key short-term support for AUD/NZD negates the bullish scenario to expose the next intermediate support at 1.1330/1.1320 (also close to the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 7thToday commemorates the second anniversary of the tragic massacre when Hamas soldiers invaded Israel, killing, raping, and kidnapping more than a thousand civilians.Tomorrow will see the biggest meeting of Arab leaders regarding implementing the Trump 20-point Plan, which would impose a ceasefire and achieve a process towards peace in the region for the time to come.The meeting will be held in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, and will include the highest diplomatic delegates from Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt. US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff will also participate in the meeting and recently landed in Egypt.Turning back to Markets, the cause for these flows isn't known yet, but risk assets saw consequent rejection in today's session, which even caught Gold and Silver in its crosshairs.Some dip-buying mean-reversion higher did lighten sentiment towards the close, but such flows heighten volatility and may scare highly leveraged participants.After suffering strong drops, Bitcoin rallied more than $1,000 from its daily lows, and US indices have followed suit.Recovering above all the preceding peaks would put sentiment back on its high pedestal, but traders might be cautious in the waiting for more data and eventually a re-opening of the US Government.The US Dollar has surprisingly been a big winner of the week, which may have had to play with today's flows (Stops kicking? More to come?) Read More:RBNZ Preview: Why a 50bps Cut is on the TableCrazy crypto week: Digital Markets slide, altcoins under pressureDow Jones (DJ30) cools off all-time highs as US government shutdown rumbles on - Potential targets and price forecastCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView The picture is largely different from yesterday, with Cryptos correcting back sharply from their previous session rise.Gold still finishes up in the past 24 hours despite failing to reach the $4,000 level. Everybody have been mentioning the $4,000 milestone as evident, and reaching it is still of high probability, but markets are such that when something looks obvious, it ends up not happening the same way players expect it.Both Silver and Platinum however are seeing some rejection of their higher levels.For the rest, the US Dollar and US Treasuries did see quite some inflows in today's session and their rise is something to monitor for the coming days. We'll be taking a closer look at the USD tomorrow.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, October 7 – Source: OANDA Labs Today marks another bloody day for the Yen as fiscal concerns still arise in the waiting of the upcoming elections. The only thing saving a nasty outlook for the Japanese currency would be Takaichi sending more hawkish signs, but that wasn't a big part of her political campaign.The gold ounce in Yen denomination spiked at ¥600,000 !!For the rest, North American currencies have made a comeback amid the Trump-Carney meeting that was mentioned in our previous day recap and more direction in USDCAD is sought by traders.The Euro also took a hit for another session with the ongoing nasty political picture in France and disaccordances between EU Nations (particularly Hungary) regarding Ukraine joining the Union.A look at Economic data releasing through tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The session is far from over for APAC traders, with the RBNZ meeting split between a 25 bps and a 50 bps call, releasing at 21:00 ET – check our recent preview for the event.Despite still indicated, Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda has cancelled his speech that was expected to release tonight with Banque de France's Villeroy. He might be preparing bigger remarks and a plan regarding the newly appointed LDP president.Wednesday will then open with a heavy lineup of ECB and Fed speakers, including Lagarde, Pill, and Goolsbee, before traders turn to the FOMC Minutes (14:00 ET) for deeper insight into the Committee’s latest rate debate.In terms of pure data tomorrow, we will get Eurozone Industrial Production (02:00 ET) and Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations (20:00 ET) to round out a packed 24-hour window, potentially adding volatility to EUR and AUD pairs.Keep an eye on headlines from the Arab Summit. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

It seems that Crypto Markets are caught in the middle of lunatic flows.Just yesterday, record Bitcoin prices were making headlines, with the rest of the digital asset market following suit.But today, things took a sharp U-turn to the downside — with most altcoins getting rejected harshly after what looked like the start of another euphoric leg higher.Mentioned in yesterday’s article on the crypto initiator, Bitcoin is trading around the $121,000 technical level and may soon test the $120,000 psychological support, a zone that could trigger renewed anxiety among late buyers who chased the highs.The total crypto market cap, which had broken new records by roughly $100 billion, has now swung the other way — down about 4% (or $170B) on the day. Total Crypto Market Cap, October 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView That reversal is weighing heavily on smaller coins, many of which got bamboozled by the ecstatic momentum just 24 hours earlier. Daily overview of the Crypto Market, October 7, 2025 – Source: Finviz The picture is bloody!While sentiment might take a hit from the sudden volatility, the broader picture remains constructive. Most altcoins are still hovering near their cycle highs, showing no clear signs of capitulation — at least not yet.Let's watch levels for a few altcoins, namely: ETH, SOL, XRP and BNB (one of the only winners of the current sessions).Altcoins intraday chart analysisEthereum (ETH) 8H Chart ETH 8H Chart, October 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView Since our previous analysis of the second largest crypto, Ethereum broke to the upside after a huge and sudden rally.However, as prices reached the ATH resistance (between $4,750 to $4,950), sellers came in strong taking the crypto down 6.50%, also breaking the steep upward trendline.This gives an overall rangy picture for Ethereum for the second time since July, with sideways action not being as bad as an overall downtrend.Let's see how sentiment evolves throughout the week for cryptos and if buyers step in at support ($4,300 is the next key level in line).Levels to place on your ETH Charts:Support Levels:$4,200 to $4,300 consolidation Zone$4,000 to $4,095 Main Long-run Pivot$3,900 8H MA 200$3,500 Main Support ZoneResistance Levels:$4,753 Daily highs$4,950 Current new All-time highs$4,700 to $4,950 All-time high resistance zonePotential main resistance $5,230 Fibonacci extensionSolana (SOL) 8H Chart SOL 8H Chart, October 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView Failing to break the upper bound of the upward channel with a triple retest, the picture for the third largest crypto could be bleak.The intermediate high came at $237 which fails to surpass the $253 peak reached in end-September. A lower high hence has to be taken into account, despite a very strong performance from Solana.It seems that a broad positive mood will be required to breach new highs, with buyers now having to break above the $237 level for better technical prospects.Also, watch reactions at the pivot zone currently getting tested. Rejecting higher means a simple correction, while breaking lower would entice more profit-taking.Levels to keep on your SOL Charts:Support Levels:Resistance turned pivot level $218 to $220Support zone $200 to $205Recent lows $191$185 higher timeframe momentum supportResistance Levels:$237 Most recent highs$235 to $240 mini-resistance and Higher bound of channel$250 to $255 main resistance$290 to $300 all-time high resistance ($295 ATH)XRP 8H Chart XRP 8H Chart, October 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Ripple is still stuck in its $2.70 to $3.20 range, with sideways action dominating the charts and rejecting a breakout hypothesis.This chart is an example of why some traders and analysts prefer to watch support and resistance levels break rather than trendline, however, both can be valid and heavily depend on the price action and trend.Prices are now testing the $2.80 Support and reactions there will also have to be watched closely, with the 8H RSI moving in the bearish territory.Levels to keep on your XRP Charts:Support Levels:$2.80 mini support (immediately testing)Main Support - $2.60 to $2.70Next key support between $2.20 to $2.30Resistance Levels:$3.00 Major Pivot Zone$3.10 to $3.20 resistancePrevious all-time Highs - $3.39Current ATH resistance around $3.66BNB 8H Chart BNB 8H Chart, October 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView Binance's coin is moving exponentially higher and holding the market together as it seems.BNB has almost doubled in value since the beginning of July and its rise looks like one of a memecoin, although its fundamentals are actually solid.Then again, the rest is to see if it can consolidate at current elevated levels and establish itself as another crypto that is valued above $1,000 on the longer run.Keep an eye if bulls can close today's session above $1,300 and if they manage to break a new record throughout this week to maintain its very bullish trend.Also keep in mind that BNB tends to be a late cycle bloomer, but also holds a strong role in the overall crypto market growth during the mid-cycle.Levels to keep on your BNB Charts:Support Levels:Short timeframe Pivot Zone $1,200$1,000 Major higher timeframe Pivot, acting as support$790 to $850 Key Support$690 to $720 Major Support at 2021 highsResistance Levels:$1,374 Current ATH and Daily record$1,475 Fib-Extension potential resistanceKeep your mind and eyes open as volatility is back on the table.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Cooling from all-time highs, the Dow Jones (DJ30) trades 0.33% lower in today’s session, at around $46,594.Having found support early August, US equities have staged a formidable rally since, despite a somewhat questionable cocktail of macroeconomic themes.As always, let’s review some macro themes impacting US equity markets, and importantly, consider some potential price targets for this week’s trading.Dow Jones (DJ30): Key takeaways 07/10/2025 Staging an impressive rally despite a dubious fundamental outlook, the Dow Jones is retracing from all-time highs in today’s trading, with Caterpillar (CAT), Nike (NKE), and Salesforce (CRM) amongst the worst-performing constituentsDespite some downside in today’s session, sentiment on US equities remains generally positive, with complications to Fed monetary policy brought about by the US government shutdown positive for equity markets, somewhat counterintuitivelyOtherwise, political uncertainty in major world economies, most notably Japan and France, is encouraging risk-averse investors to seek alternative forms of investment, somewhat benefiting US equities Read more of today’s MarketPulse coverage: RBNZ Preview: Why a 50bps Cut is on the Table Dow Jones 30 (US30USD), S&P 500 (SPX500USD) and Nasdaq-100 (NAS100USD) YTD, OANDA, TradingView, 07/10/2025 Dow Jones 30 retraces from all-time highs, snapping a six-day bullish streak Despite the best efforts of ballooning sovereign debt, an ongoing government shutdown, and stock valuations rivalling the .com bubble, US equities remain at the highsWhile the hive mind of the market is not typically known for its ultimate rationality in decision-making, the recent rally in US equity prices, including the Dow Jones, cannot be ignored.Although prices have cooled somewhat, seemingly due to technical selling, all three major US indices, the Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and Nasdaq-100, have recently posted all-time highs.Let’s take a look at the major fundamental themes at play this week: US government shutdown: As a precursor to the following theme, the US government shutdown should, at least in a vacuum, spell trouble for the current rally in equity pricing. Adding to market uncertainty, undermining confidence in the US government, and suspending non-essential government services, none of these outcomes would typically be viewed as a reason to hold US equities over an alternative. S&P 500 historical price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, Macrotrends, 07/10/2025 Fair to say, however, this has not been the case since Tuesday’s shutdown announcement, with prices renewing all-time highs since. Market conviction on Federal Reserve easing path: While the notion that the Federal Reserve is becoming increasingly dovish is a pre-existing narrative, one of the many knock-on effects of the US government shutdown is further complications to Fed monetary policy. CME FedWatch, 06/10/2025 Nailing their colours to the mast in 2025 and committing to following objective data when making rate decisions, the current government shutdown has suspended all collection and reporting of economic data by federal agencies, putting the Federal Reserve in a difficult position.Naturally, it’s challenging to balance the dual mandate of stable pricing and employment when the most recent figures, particularly regarding their reaction to September’s 25-basis-point cut, are entirely unknown.Ultimately, markets are predicting that a lack of economic data will force the Fed’s hand into performing a second back-to-back interest rate cut, especially considering that September’s NFP report left much to be desired, an outcome Fed Chair Powell will be keen to avoid repeating.This holds true especially when considering that ADP payrolls, serving as our most recent and reliable private sector gauge of the US labor market, painted a less-than-stellar picture, losing 32,000 jobs in September.As for US equities, we can consider any suggestion that rates will be lowered in upcoming decisions as positive for pricing, adding some rationale to recent upside. Rising political uncertainty in major economies: As a brief aside, the change of leadership in Japan and the recent resignation of the French prime minister are contributing to global political uncertainty.While I’m hesitant to say the United States equity market has entirely maintained its prestige as a global safe haven in recent memory, we can expect substantial political changes in key world economies to inspire risk-averse investors to seek alternative forms of investment, offering a minor boost to US equity pricing. Dow Jones 30 (US30USD), Nikkei 225 (JP225USD) and CAC 40 (FR40EUR), OANDA, TradingView, 07/10/2025 Dow Jones 30 (DJ30): Technical Analysis 07/10/2025 Let’s now direct our focus to market technicals, starting with the daily, and then concluding with the four-hourly.Dow Jones 30 (DJ30): Daily (D1) chart analysis (07/10/2025): Dow Jones 30 (US30USD) D1, OANDA, TradingView, 07/10/2025 With a crossover of the 9 and 21-period moving averages marking the start of the current uptrend, the Dow Jones trades are almost 4.00% higher since.While the price trades above the current trend line, we are approaching the upper limits of the 20-period Bollinger band, which, so far, correctly suggested that the price needs to retrace towards the baseline before a move higher.From a technical perspective, if support can be maintained at $46,650, further upside can be expected in the near term. Price targets and support/resistance levels:Price target 1: 78.6% Fib: $47,100Support 1: Previous high: $46,450Support 2: Consolidation: $45,642Dow Jones 30 (DJ30): Four-hourly (H4) chart analysis (07/10/2025): Dow Jones 30 (US30USD) H4, OANDA, TradingView, 07/10/2025 For those with a passion for technical analysis, the H4 Dow Jones chart is a textbook example of a stairstep pattern, providing those with a keen eye plenty of opportunity to get long. Price targets and support/resistance levels:Price target 1: All-time high: $47,102Support 1: Previous swing high: $46,508Support 2: Bottom of consolidation: $46,157 At current, price looks for support at the trendline, but may slide lower to the lower limit of the 20-period Bollinger band if support can not be found.To the upside, a clear target would be the previous high of $47,102, although some may view $47,000 as a logical exit point. Read more from MarketPulse: Risk-off session: What's going on in markets? Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Translating each and every move in markets into concrete headlines or themes can be chaotic. Sometimes, the Market moves in anticipation of news before reversing course as the news land.Sometimes, Markets overcome negative headlines in a brighter future outlook.And sometimes, the Market just throws the towel for no particular reasons. Today's session seems to be the case.There is always a possibility of things happening behind the scenes and the public learning the true cause of a move later, but for now that does not seem to be the case.(FYI, US President Trump is speaking with Mark Carney live here)Uncertainty from a more prolonged US Government shutdown could be starting to influence flows, as consequences could start to hit the economy more seriously as things get dragged for longer.US Equities opened higher like they usually do since June, but they consequently got met with sharp selling flows which translated into some steep US treasury buying.These are Risk-Off flows – Positions are closing and volumes are starting to rise as the mid-session bell rings but there seems to be some kind of continuation going on.Nonetheless, with Gold also reverting from its huge rally, it isn't the typical Risk-off Market.Let's look at a few Market reactions: Read More:USDCAD steadies as Carney-Trump meeting boosts North American currenciesRBNZ Preview: Why a 50bps Cut is on the TableThe broad Market picture Cross-Asset global picture, 30M Charts – October 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView An unusual picture for this year: Gold, Stocks and Bitcoin are all going down while Bonds are rallying strongly.Look at the daily highs and lows to spot any reversal of today's action or further continuation breakouts.Upside & Downside levels to watch:Gold – $4,000 & $3,900S&P 500 – 6,765 & below 6,70010Y US Bonds – Above 113.000 & below 112.000 (or in Yields 4.18% / 4.10%)US Dollar (DXY) – 98.60 & a 98.00So is this an opportunity or a trap? Risk-assets are at their all-time highs and Metals are also there.In this environment, joining a strong trend after a correction can be a good dip-buying opportunity.On the other side, patience can also be a virtue:Either participants come back to retake new highs, which would cancel any technical fearsOr participants decide to take more profits, generating downside opportunities and a further correction for longer-term investment at better prices.What is the best thing to do in any case? Respect your risk and trading/investing system:Participating in volatility can come with higher potential returns but also incurs higher chances of a bias/position getting stopped out.Take a step back and take your decisions by looking back if the opportunity is worth the input. Plan things out and attempt to place levels that trigger particular decision-making on your part.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.