Welcome to the follow-up piece to our individual Stock Market leaders analysis.Yesterday's analysis took a close look at two names that have had a pretty volatile performance in the past week: Nvidia and Meta.Get access to the analysis right here:Read More: AI Leaders Outlook: Technical Analysis of Meta and Nvidia StocksToday's Index action was more volatile than yesterday, with bulls pushing to an early morning surge before mean reversion flows stepped in, leading to a sharp slowdown in momentum. zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap (14:17 A.M.) – December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView The current lack of conviction may be partially due to traders being preoccupied with the World Cup Qualifier event, which is pulling volatility out of the market.In any case, there will be only two and a half trading sessions before the December 9th-10th FOMC rate decision, and after such volatile runs, expect things to settle down as institutions prepare for the week ahead.Let's dive right into Weekly and intraday charts analyses for the two remaining tech giants: Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet, more widely known as Google (GOOG). Read More:Loonie rallies after Canada adds 54,000 jobs in major employment beatMarkets Weekly Outlook - FOMC Rate Cut Countdown, Economic Projections May Hold the KeyUS stocks hesitant rally: Markets pass the Core PCE and U-of-Mich data barMicrosoft (MSFT) – The picture isn't prettyWeekly Chart zoom_out_map Microsoft Weekly Stock Chart. December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Microsoft's Forward Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio – 32.50 ~ Highs but historic for the firmMicrosoft had been invincible since its 2023 $213.44 lows, but as momentum for AI and Tech spending slowed down, the leader turned into one of the most targeted stock for profit-taking.Victim of some pessimistic news at the beginning of the week, the stock gapped lower before coming back timidly.This is creating a balanced picture throughout which can lead to some surprising breakouts (either to the upside or the downside).The Weekly RSI is tilting more bearish however, so the higher timeframe isn't looking so great.Let's see what the intraday timeframe has for us.8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Microsoft 8H Stock Chart. December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking closer, the stock is evolving in a downward channel.Still, the action is seeing a counter-trend bullish move which will have to push further to close the week above.Momentum is hesitant to say the least; most recent candles have been dojis so MSFT traders might just be awaiting a catalyst to move forward, maybe the FOMC or some better news.In the bigger picture, two key levels will be coming into play for Microsoft trading:For bulls, they will be looking to push for a daily close above the $494 Weekly highs, which infers a breakout of the downward channel.A close below $475 implies a break of the counter-up trend which would continue the downward momentum.The next support will be found between $455 to $465 – Close to the November lowsMicrosoft Technical levels of Interest:Resistance Levels$540 to $555 All-time Highs ResistanceMid-Year range resistance $510 to $520Weekly Highs for Bulls to breach $493.44Current All-time Highs $795.71Support LevelsRecent Support $580 to $600 – Watch reactions if it breaks$581.25 November lows2024 & Liberation Day Major Support $450 to $4902021 Highs $382.00August 2023 Key Rebound Zone $272.70Google – Pulling the Market higherWeekly Chart zoom_out_map Google Weekly Stock Chart. December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Google's Forward Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio – 28.70 ~ Far from extremeGoogle is the stock of this late AI-rally, going exponential since crossing back above its early 2025 record in September.Not seeing any considerable retracement since, the progress higher has been flawless.If you think about it, Alphabet is positioned to capture benefits from AI:Gemini 3 was a revolutionary update, they already have their in-house AI chips production in place, and are already making benefits compared to most of its competitors in these fields.Momentum is going a bit ballistic however, which tends to be a great thing for stocks but can also be met with sharp corrections during any selloff.Remember that overbought, doesn't always rhyme with imminent tops – A costly lesson during equity bull-markets.8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Google 8H Stock Chart. December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Short-timeframe momentum seems to be slowing down after a long while and thorough breakouts for the firm.A failed breakout above its upward channel may point to a retest of lower levels. With its momentum still flawless for now, the retracement should not be too consequent.Expect some small-dip buying at $300 at a retest of the Gap, and in the situation of a bigger retracement, $280 to $290 looks like an ideal entry point for the Market leader.If we do get there, keep an eye on what flows and news lead the selloff. A healthy retracement wouldn't hurt the stock but at the same time, traders will be cautious of any correction these days.Google Technical levels of Interest:Resistance Levels$320 to $330 All-time Resistance (currently testing)$328.67 Current ATHFib-Induced Potential resistance and Psychological Level $350Support Levels$300 psychological level and gap-up mini supportHigh-timeframe pivot $270 to $290 acting as support$250 Support$200 to $210 Early 2025 peakLiberation Day Support $140 to $1502022 and 2023 lows between $80 to $100Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (05/12/2025): In today's episode, Christian, Nick, and podcast host Jonny Hart discuss the latest in central bank monetary policy expectations, including the RBA, BoE, and Fed, alongside the recent PCE numbers released earlier today. Otherwise, Nick sheds some light on the continued unwinding of the yen carry trade and further implications for precious metals. Join OANDA Financial Writer Christian Norman, Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Week in review: Markets Buoyed Ahead of FOMC Meeting The week draws to a close with risk assets largely buoyed by the prospect of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.On Friday, the main US stock market indexes all moved slightly higher. The Dow Jones gained 236.46 points (a 0.49% rise), the S&P 500 increased by 31.44 points (a 0.46% gain), and the Nasdaq rose by 131.27 points (a 0.56% increase).Read More: US Dollar Index (DXY) Slips as Rate Cut Bets Remain Unchanged Post US PCE and University of Michigan DataLooking ahead to next week, Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to have a significant debate: should they lower interest rates, or keep them steady? The core issue is that while prices remain difficult to control (stubborn inflation) and the job market is still surprisingly strong (resilient), some Fed members are hesitant to cut rates.Other employment-related data still does not suggest a quick slowdown in hiring, which gives those who prioritize fighting inflation (the "hawks") a stronger argument. Despite this internal debate, investors in the market still anticipate that the Fed will go ahead and cut rates by another quarter-point sometime by June 2026. zoom_out_map Source: CME FedWatch Tool Heading into the decision, Wall Street indexes are all near all-time highs with the hope that the Federal Reserve meeting will serve as a catalyst for fresh all-time highs to be printed. Will such a move materialize?How Did the US Dollar and FX Perform? The US dollar was slightly weaker on Friday but generally stayed within its recent trading range against other major currencies.The dollar's strength index (DXY) dipped 0.2%, landing at 98.906, which is close to its weakest point in the past five weeks.Meanwhile, the euro gained slightly, reaching 1.1651 against the dollar.The Japanese yen remained mostly unchanged on Friday at 155.15 per dollar, taking a pause after recent days of strength driven by speculation that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might raise its interest rates later this month. Reports from both Bloomberg and Reuters suggested that BOJ officials are indeed prepared to raise rates on December 19th unless there is a significant unexpected economic event.The Canadian dollar strengthened by the most in six months against its US counterpart on Friday and bond yields jumped, as stronger-than-expected domestic jobs data boosted bets the Bank of Canada would begin raising interest rates next year.Finally, the British pound (Sterling) also rose 0.2%, trading at 1.335 and nearing its highest level in six weeks.Read More:WTI Rangebound: How Stalled Peace Talks & OPEC Strategy Will Shape the Oil MarketGold (XAU/USD) Price Reclaims $4200/oz Handle. Are Bulls Ready for a Test of $4300/oz?The Week Ahead - Fed in Focus, RBA & BoC Rate Decisions Ahead The week ahead will see market focus on the Federal Reserve rate decision. There is also rate decisions from Canada and Australia but given the stature of the US economy and its ability to affect overall market sentiment, the RBA and BoC decisions will likely be overshadowed.Asia Pacific MarketsThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to keep its main interest rate unchanged at 3.6% next Tuesday. Since recent reports showed that both inflation and economic growth were stronger than expected, it's now much less likely that the RBA will cut interest rates again. This suggests that the central bank might be finished with its current cycle of lowering rates.China's trade activity is expected to grow only moderately. Although the recent trade agreement and reduced tariffs from the U.S. should help Chinese exports, the way the numbers are calculated (base effects) will keep the growth rate low. For November, I forecast exports to grow by 3.3% and imports by 3.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of about $100.3 billion.Separately, China’s inflation rate is predicted to continue its recovery, rising to 0.5% for the year, which is a positive sign after it recently moved back above zero. This is largely because the falling price of food is no longer dragging down the overall inflation number, and the prices of non-food items are starting to rise. While inflation remains quite low, it is important to prevent a sustained period of falling prices (deflation) to keep long-term spending and investment healthy. Since inflation is still low, it will likely not be a major factor in the People's Bank of China's interest rate decisions.FOMC to Steal the ShowThe Federal Reserve (US) is expected to cut its interest rate by $0.25\%$ this Wednesday. While some worry that new tariffs could keep prices high (inflation), the main reason for the cut is the growing concern about the weakness in the job market, which important Fed members have recently noted. Along with the decision, the Fed will release new predictions, which are likely to suggest only one more rate cut in 2026.However, this long-term outlook might not significantly affect the market's expectations which currently price in two or three cuts for 2026 because the composition of the Fed's voting committee and leadership (including the Chair, Jerome Powell) could change drastically under the new administration.Separately, Canada is likely to take a break from its recent series of interest rate cuts this Wednesday. Stronger-than-expected recent growth and employment figures support this pause, though we still anticipate one final cut early in 2026 due to ongoing trade risks with the US.Finally, for the UK, I expect to see an improvement in the monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on Friday. The previous drop in September was mainly because a cyberattack stopped production at a major car company, but since that production has restarted, October's GDP numbers should bounce back. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. GMT time (click to enlarge) Chart of the Week - US Dollar Index This week's Chart of the week is the US Dollar Index (DXY)From a technical perspective, the DXY has had a change in structure having taken out the November 14 swing low around the 99.00 handle.Thursdays daily candle closed as a hammer offering bulls some hope. However, as has been the case of late any attempt at a bullish move has been met by swift selling pressure.The period-14 RSI remains below the 50 mark which is a sign of bearish momentum.Immediate support is provided by the 100-day MA which rests at the 98.58 before the 98.00 and 97.70 handles come into focus.Upside resistance may be found at the 200-day MA around 99.51 before the 100.00 psychological level and the 100.61 level come into focus.The Dollar Index trajectory may depend on the economic projections for 2026. Any sign that the Fed see more than one rate cut in 2026 could send the DXY sliding with a test of the YTD low a possibility depending on how dovish the Fed outlook is.Alternatively, a hawkish stance could have the opposite impact. This would be similar to what we witnessed after the previous Fed meeting in October.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart - October 17, 2025 zoom_out_map Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) Be Nimble and Trade Safe.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

UK gilt yields may rise toward 6%, reflecting mounting fiscal strain and investor concernsPersistent outflows from UK equity funds signal weak confidence despite temporary market calmCommodities and mining stocks support the FTSE, contrasting with broader economic instability The British economy is facing serious fiscal challenges that are increasing tensions in the bond market and may affect the pound’s exchange rate. Despite the government’s declarations about maintaining budget balance, experts warn that the tax increases announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves are too dispersed to meaningfully strengthen public finances and ease pressure on debt markets.A prospect of 6% yieldsDavid Zahn of Franklin Templeton forecasts that the yield on 30-year UK government bonds could reach 6%, highlighting the government’s difficulties in financing rising expenditures. The current spread between UK and German bonds of the same maturity stands at 176 basis points, and 78 basis points relative to France, placing the UK among the most expensive developed countries in which to borrow. zoom_out_map Yield on 30-year UK bonds and spread between UK, German, and French bonds, source: TradingView Zahn, who sold all his UK bonds back in March, believes that only a further rise in debt-servicing costs will force the government into genuine fiscal adjustment. As he puts it: “Eventually yields will be so high that the government won’t be able to sweep the problem under the carpet any longer.”Questionable revenue and political riskAlthough Reeves has pledged to increase the “fiscal buffer” and avoided the most controversial tax hikes (such as taxes on pension withdrawals or capital gains), rating agencies and think tanks doubt the long-term stability of the plan. zoom_out_map Fund Flow Index, source: Calastone November also saw the second-worst outflow from UK equity funds in history—investors withdrew £3 billion, reflecting market tensions ahead of the budget announcement. Only after the budget was published did the outflows stop, suggesting investors feared radical changes that ultimately were not introduced.GBP: Short-term relief, long-term risksThe pound has recently appreciated against a weakening dollar, and the bond market calmed after the budget release. However, by the end of the European session, GBP/USD met resistance at the 200-period SMA, which also aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline seen between September and November this year. Structural issues within the UK economy—high debt levels, low growth, and weak investment sentiment—remain unresolved. zoom_out_map Daily timeframe of GBPUSD, source: TradingView Meanwhile, investors continue to avoid UK funds—only one month out of the last 55 saw a net inflow of capital. The government is attempting to stimulate the market through measures such as tax incentives for new listed companies and changes to the ISA system to encourage equity investment.Strong commodities and decorrelation in the energy marketAgainst the backdrop of fiscal problems, the commodities sector remains the one bright spot in the UK market—copper and gold prices are hitting records, supporting mining companies’ valuations. The FTSE 100 owes much of its strength to the rising weight of mining stocks in the index. The energy sector (FTSE 350 Energy) has also seen gains recently despite falling oil prices, likely driven by high dividends and share buyback programmes. However, investors should be aware that valuations may not hold if the geopolitical situation improves—for instance, if peace is achieved in Ukraine. Today the index recorded losses of more than 1.76%. zoom_out_map FTSE 350 Energy index compared to Brent crude prices, source: TradingView The UK is at a turning point. A relatively strong currency and buoyant commodities sector contrast sharply with deep concerns over the stability of public finances. The prospect of rising bond yields and tax uncertainty may, in the coming months, once again increase the government’s financing costs and weaken investor confidence in the pound and UK assets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Equities have gone into yet another spectacular run but after delivering a strong open, they start to show some hesitancy.As the Bureau of Labor Statistics reopened, traders were initially concerned that the first public US data releases wouldn't be supportive of a December Fed cut—a worry that partially fueled the mid-October to end-November struggle. However, since NY Fed President Williams appeared with a dovish speech that reset expectations, things have been back to normal, almost as if nothing happened the past two months.The rebound has been massive: The Dow Jones is trading close to 48,000, the S&P 500 came shy from 6,900, and the Nasdaq is less than 2% from its all-time highs after a mid-month 9% correction. zoom_out_map US Data this morning – December 5, 2025 – Source: MarketPulse Economic Calendar The bullish narrative found further strength today: an as-expected Core PCE release (the Fed's preferred gauge) combined with encouraging inflation expectations from the University of Michigan report and Tuesday's ADP Labor miss not only support the 25 bps cut and even further cut pricing into 2026. zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap (11:07 A.M.) – December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Elevated equity levels require such rate accommodation to maintain their performance, particularly at this point in the cycle where tech and growth firms need lower financing rates to sustain high Capital Expenditure for AI infrastructure.Enough economic talks; Some small profit-taking at the highs is currently ongoing, so let's dive into the Indexes intraday charts for Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 as they look to conclude yet another green week. Read More:Loonie rallies after Canada adds 54,000 jobs in major employment beatMarkets Today: Asian & European Shares Mixed as German Factory Orders Rise. US PCE Data Remains the FocusAI Leaders Outlook: Technical Analysis of Meta and Nvidia StocksDaily Outlook for Major US Indexes zoom_out_map US Main Indices Daily Outlook. December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 8H Chart – December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView After a huge open taking the index to new Monthly highs (48,131), some sellers appear to defend the 48,000 level.With the strictly positive week, traders haven't taken a break from the buying and it seems that as such flows start to lose some steam as can be seen with the descending RSI.They are locking in some profits as next week's pivotal FOMC approaches.Keep an eye on the 48,000 level:A close below indicates further caution after such a swift move higher and may indicate selling action ahead of the FOMC.Any selling flow should maintain above the 47,000 psychological level, except for any sudden fundamental change.Above the key level, optimism stays at its peak and this sentiment should drag all the way to the Fed Meeting.Dow Jones technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 48,459Psychological resistance at 48,000 +/- 100 pts (immediate test)Session highs 48,131Support LevelsKey Pivot zone 47,500 - 47,650Higher timeframe Support 47,000 to 47,20046,000 +/- 300pts Immediate SupportTuesday Lows 45,92545,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)Nasdaq 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 8H Chart – December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq has held an even-stricter bullish momentum this week, forming a bull channel that solidly acted as support on most pullbacks.Similarly as in the Dow, Sellers are appearing around the last resistance before the all-time highs, attempting a break at the Market open but seeing some intermediate rejection.The RSI is holding strong, not showing any detail of what to expect here but some key levels are coming into play around here:Breaking the daily highs (25,833) and closing above maintains the track to a test of the all-time highs ahead of the FOMCRejecting and closing below would test the lower bound of the upward channel (25,500) which coincides with the Major Momentum Pivot.Breaking lower should still see rangebound action with the 25,000 Support acting as a key barrier.It would be a rare event to see a huge breakdown with no data expected before Wednesday's event. Still, keep an eye on Magnificent 7 Stocks in case anything happens there (like Nvidia, or Meta which haven't had the most bullish cases)Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levelsintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (immediate test)Session highs 25,833All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)Support LevelsMajor Pivot 25,500 +/- 75 ptsSupport 25,000 to 25,25024,500 Main support and Pivot (recent rebound)October lows 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 8H Chart, December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Even after a strictly positive week for the S&P 500, it seems that the broader environment is starting to look more like a big consolidation rather than a full regaining of the bull-trend.Failing to breach 6,900, sellers may just appear to take the upper hand on the short-run.Still, psychological levels will be essential for the Index:6,850, the lower bound of the mid-term resistance, will be a level to hold to avoid further mean-reversion.Any close above 6,900 points to a quick test of the all-time highsA rejection below 6,800 should still see support at the 6,750 level, accompanied by the 50-period MA.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,930 (current All Time-Highs)Session highs 6,896Current Resistance 6,850 to 6,880 (testing)ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930Support Levels6,800 Psychological PivotSupport 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 506,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)6,400 psychological supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Despite a rough monthly open, the US Dollar is currently trading within a key technical range, a factor that holds FX Markets firmly in balance despite some individual breakouts seen in pairs like NZD/USD or GBP/USD.As is often the case ahead of pivotal events like the FOMC, the Dollar may test relative extremes, but it rarely poses definitive breakout situations.The best example of this was ahead of the September Fed Meeting, where the Dollar rushed to make new lows but was inevitably constrained by the bounds of its previous yearly support zones.The catalyst for the current downside came from NY Fed President John Williams' speech on November 21, which fundamentally shook markets by reintroducing rate cut hopes. His dovish comments took the 25 basis point cut pricing from 20% all the way to the current stable 87%. This rapid repricing triggered a swift selloff in the Dollar over the past two weeks of trading. zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 8H Chart. December 4, 2025– Source: TradingView But, as mentioned in our recent in-depth analysis of the Greenback, the Dollar Index is still maintaining a broad range on the bigger picture, having tested its 200-period Moving Average (and range lows) and currently bouncing above 99.00.The range highs on the Dollar Index is located at the 100.00 level.Today, we will look at three key FX Majors and their intraday timeframes to see how the range in the Dollar Index affects their own currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/CHF, and USD/CAD. Read More:AI Leaders Outlook: Technical Analysis of Meta and Nvidia StocksSanta Claus Rally Strategy: How to Trade the S&P 500's Most Reliable Seasonal PatternUSD/JPY drops below 155.00: Has the 2025 yearly top been reached?EUR/USD 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map EUR/USD 8H Chart. December 4, 2025– Source: TradingView As mentioned in our November 25 post (On the US Dollar rejecting its range highs), EUR/USD is maintaining a wide Range between 1.15 to 1.17.As often, the range gets confirmed with:Rejection of price after reaching overbought/oversold levels in the RSIFlatlining Moving Averages, particularly the MA 200Currently rejecting its highs, the current setup is one of a sell with a potential stop at range extremes (Above 1.17).Sellers are currently pushing below the 200-period Moving Average (1.16455), the rejection confirms with a 1H Close below. Levels of interest for EUR/USD TradingResistance levels1.1630 to 1.1670 Pivot zone (range Highs)1.1750 mini-resistanceResistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)Sep 2021 Highs – Resistance 1.19 to 1.1950 ZoneWeekly highs 1.1656Support levels1.1470 to 1.15 range support4H MA 200 Mini-support 1.161901.1475 to 1.15 Support Zone1.1350 to 1.14 SupportSession lows 1.14966USD/CAD 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map USD/CAD 8H Chart. December 4, 2025– Source: TradingView The rangebound characteristics of USD/CAD are less obvious, but taking a step back, the North American pair has stopped trending since reaching its November and cycle highs.Holding firmly between 1.39 and 1.40, the currency pair has been seesawing within the 1,000 pip range since the final days of November.With traders not knowing what to do with the US-Canada deal (it seems like the Canadian government also doesn't know), rangebound conditions also make fundamental sense.In the case of a break, watch for a daily close above or below to avoid getting trapped.Note to traders that news on a trade-deal might move things in a flash.Levels of interest for USD/CAD TradingResistance Levels1.40 Major Pivot acting as resistanceCycle highs 1.4143 and Double topResistance between 1.4120 to 1.4145Key resistance 1.4250Support Levels1.39 to 1.3925 Higher timeframe pivot, current support1.38 Major support +/- 150 pipsAugust range support 1.37501.3550 Main 2025 SupportUSD/CHF 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map USD/CHF 8H Chart. December 4, 2025– Source: TradingView USD/CHF is also stuck within two ranges – A large half-year range between 0.7850 to 0.8140 and another, smaller one but more active: 0.80 to 0.81We will focus on the smaller timeframe consolidation, also 1,000 pip large.Buyers are stepping in from the 0.80 Zone after bouncing on the 200-period Moving Average (1.79930).The current candle is strong, with the ongoing rebound in the USD. Check out reactions at the highs of the range.Levels of interest for USD/CHF TradingResistance levels0.8075 to 0.81 Range highs0.81244 November highsMain resistance 0.8150 to 0.820.82144 June HighsSupport levels0.80 Range Lows, Higher timeframe Pivot0.7950 Higher timeframe Support0.78575 2025 lows supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 3The central theme of today’s session is once again, the only subject of concern for Markets (and for the right reasons): next week’s FOMC Meeting – 5 more sessions to go!The 85%+ pricing for a 25 bps cut had been subject to volatility, but this morning’s ADP miss largely anchors it at elevated levels.With ISM Services producing a beat (52.6 vs. 52.2 exp), but Prices Paid regressing, almost nothing stands in the way of a Fed cut, with tariff-led inflationary pressures remaining contained.This helped cryptocurrencies to stay around the highs reached yesterday amid their ongoing rebound, but most importantly, allowed stock indexes to perform in yet another huge day. The session was particularly fruitful for Industrials and Small Caps, with the Dow up 1% at the session close and the Russell 2000 up 1.80%. zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap (Session close) – December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView An almost perfect mirror of yesterday's session!The DJIA closed the session very near the 48,000 level.Even the Nasdaq, which had been selling off earlier due to a Microsoft scare, was brought higher by the strictly positive inflows in the afternoon.In other Markets, Gold initially gained momentum in the session but gave up most of its gains in the afternoon, while other precious metals remained muted.Copper, on the other hand, is reaching some 6-month highs in COMEX and new Highs in London as closed mines, tariffs, and low exchange supply continue to underpin prices. Read More:Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView Global assets have been subject to quite some wild swings, with some resilience in Risk-Assets.Bitcoin stayed elevated as it consolidates its prices around $90,000, the Dow beat all other major stock Indexes and the US Dollar took another hit.A classic debasement trade day.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, December 3 – Source: OANDA Labs Today was all about US dollar weakness, dragging the Loonie to its depths and as the same time, pushing all currencies, particularly the Europeans bouncing higher – With GBP on top.Check out our recent analysis for GBP/USD right here!A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The evening session will provide Trade Data for Australia, very important for the Aussie – The Australian economy is a large exporter.The early morning session shall see the release of EU Retail Sales at 5:00 A.M. with a small beat (+0.1% M/M) expected.But the real show will start in the US, once again fairly early with the Challenger Jobs Cut at 7:30 A.M. – Keep a note on this one as it was quite a mover last month.An hour later, public Jobless Claims data will also be in the center of attention. The past releases haven't corroborated with the trend seen in ADP, so it'll be an interesting watch.At 10:00 A.M, CAD traders will welcome the Ivey PMI data which looks to shed some light as the Loonie gets dragged lower once again.Don't forget the several Central Bank speakers including Fed's Bowman – However, don't expect comments on Monetary Policy as the Blackout stands all the way to next Wednesday.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

North American stock markets largely recovered, particularly Tech, turning what was a scary correction into a small retracement since last week. Most Indices now hover close to their all-time highs, with the Nasdaq remaining the furthest from its peak, down a measly 2.30% from its end-October record.The December 10 FOMC cut is now a quasi-certainty, with a few bouts of lower data since last Thursday beginning to set the stage for another cut in January (currently priced at 27%). zoom_out_map Pricing for January 28 2026 FOMC meeting – Source: FedWatch Tool Private employment has sent a warning of regressing employment numbers since early November, as seen with ADP's new weekly series throughout last month. Numbers from this morning’s monthly report, which connects to the Challenger Layoffs report that shook markets last month, are also notable – By the way, the next Challenger report is due tomorrow.Concerns over this weakening private labor sector are justified, as Jerome Powell based the Fed's first cut in September 2024 (from 5.50% to 5%) on this exact premise.To complement the data, inflationary pressures appear to be easing: the ISM Prices Paid data is regressing (though it remains high), and Import prices are unchanged from this morning’s releases (September data, but still positive news).Adding a political layer to the Fed debate, President Trump verbally called for the nomination of NEC Director Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair. Wall Street is seemingly uneasy about this choice, but looking at the Market today, things are far from priced in.Trump is famous for judging his own performance by looking at the Stock Market, so he might take some time to think about this one.On the northern border, Canadian data has started to show more upside after a strong rebound in their Q3 GDP, and this morning’s Labor Productivity report came in better than expected.While Canadian PMIs are still telling another story, the land of maple syrup is at least sending signs of life – Could the CAD make a comeback in 2026? Read More:Nasdaq Index Outlook: Microsoft (MSFT) scares Markets despite strong Services PMI reportBitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Alert: Bitcoin Breaks Major Resistance - Next Stop $100,000?GBP/USD reaches 1.33, on top as ADP Employment Miss sends the dollar in a limboNorth-American Indices Performance zoom_out_map North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView Most North American Indexes are up between 3% and 5% while the US Dollar is down 1.50% – This is a textbook example of what happens when Dovish Monetary policy gets priced in. Keep note!Dollar Index 8H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index 8H Chart, December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar took a huge hit this week after staying resilient throughout last week's Fed Cut repricing.It seems that there is quite a lag between the moment a cut prices back and actual movement in the Greenback. Still, other dynamics like the Next Fed Chair are also playing their part in this week's movement.For now, the range mentioned in our recent in-depth analysis still holds, but could crack lower if weak data persists. Things will materialize on Friday after the Core PCE report.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance zone100.376 November highsTop of channel and psychological level at 101.0099.60 to 99.80 mini-resistance now pivotSupport LevelsHigher timeframe Pivot 98.80 to 99.00 (testing lower bound)Weekly lows 98.82 and 8H MA 200Mini-support 98.50Main support 98.00August Range support 97.25 to 97.60US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map USD vs other Majors since last Monday, December 3, 2025 - Source: TradingView This chart shows well how individual pairs have been reacting since last week after Fed's Williams influential comments.Always keep an eye on his speeches!Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map CAD vs other Majors, December 3, 2025 - Source: TradingView. Another classic week for the Loonie: A bounce after Thursday's GDP data got met with some mean-reversion.The drops in the CAD are getting more limited as time goes but overall, it still remains sold on pops.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD zoom_out_map USD/CAD 8H Chart, December 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView USD/CAD is correcting quite largely after reaching new cycle highs just two weeks ago.Now under its 8H 200-Period MA, the outlook for the pair is bearish but will have to break and close below the Higher timeframe pivot (1.3925) if bears want to retake full control.Levels of interest for USD/CAD:Resistance Levels1.40 Major Pivot acting as resistanceCycle highs 1.4143 and Double topResistance between 1.4120 to 1.4145Key resistance 1.4250Support Levels1.39 to 1.3925 Higher timeframe pivot, current support1.38 Major support +/- 150 pipsAugust range support 1.37501.3550 Main 2025 SupportUS and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week zoom_out_map US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar The rest of the week will be the final crucial data points towards Next week's rate decision.Thursday morning starts with Challenger Job Cuts which will be tracked closely due to their impact during the BLS shutdown. This gets followed immediately by the weekly Initial Jobless Claims (08:30 A.M. ET). Markets will be looking for any cracks in employment trends that could sway the Fed's tone. CAD traders also get a look at business activity with the Ivey PMI at 10:00 A.M. ET.Friday, however, is the main event:The spotlight will be entirely on the Core PCE Price Index (08:30 A.M. ET), the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.With the consensus holding steady at 2.9% YoY, any surprise here will directly dictate the market's pricing for next week's interest rate decision.Simultaneously, CAD traders face their biggest release of the month: the Net Change in Employment and Unemployment Rate. Expectations are flat (0K jobs added), so any major deviation could spark significant volatility for the Loonie.The week wraps up with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations at 10:00 A.M. ET.Crucial Note: Apart from these final data points, the calendar is effectively clear. There won't be anything of significance until the FOMC meeting next Wednesday, making Friday's close critical for positioning.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Price Reclaims $4200/oz Handle. Are Bulls Ready for a Test of $4300/oz?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has successfully rebounded, passing the important $93,000 price point that many market participants have been watching. This comeback is seen as a necessary relief rally, pushing Bitcoin's price up to $93,007.12, which marks a 6.6% increase in just the last 24 hours.After several weeks of falling prices, this price reversal seems strong and is supported by three main factors working together: significant changes in global economic policies (macroeconomic policy shifts), the fact that large investment firms can now easily buy and sell Bitcoin (unprecedented institutional distribution access), and certain patterns on the price charts that suggested a bounce was due (highly compressed technical indicators). zoom_out_map Source: TradingView The Factors Influencing Bitcoins Recovery First, the US central bank (Federal Reserve) has officially ended its program of removing money from the economy (Quantitative Tightening or QT), which means they are now moving toward a policy that makes money more easily available (accommodating monetary policy). This boost in available money, or liquidity injection, has happened at the same time as a major shift in how large financial institutions view Bitcoin.Second, investment firm Vanguard, which manages $9 trillion, has made it easier for its clients to access Bitcoin through certain investment products (third-party crypto ETFs).Third, technical analysis suggests a huge move is coming. The price charts show that the price swings (volatility) have been at historic lows, a pattern that has always happened right before a massive, rapid price increase (parabolic price movements).While these factors suggest the price is heading strongly upward and could soon go above $100,000, there is an immediate risk: the market remains fragile.There is not enough trading volume right now (market depth has not fully recovered), meaning there isn't much liquidity. In this kind of environment, the market is highly prone to large, sudden price swings, making it very sensitive to any bad news or unexpected selling that forces traders to quickly close their positions (liquidation events).However, because the fundamental drivers such as money flowing from central banks and real demand from major financial institutions are so strong, experts believe this price momentum is likely to last and is more than just a temporary fluctuation.Institutional Demand Mechanics: The Distribution Revolution The money flowing from large investment firms into Bitcoin has made a significant turnaround, suggesting that a period where money was rapidly leaving the market is over. Investment products known as US spot Bitcoin ETFs have started seeing money flow back in (net inflows), reversing four straight weeks where over $4.3 billion had been pulled out. Although the first week's rebound was modest at about $70 million, this shift confirms that institutional money is actively returning to the market.This money is not just coming from one source. While BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF is recovering, major inflows went into funds managed by Fidelity ($77.5 million) and ARK 21Shares ($88 million), showing a broad return of interest across many institutional players. These ETFs now manage over $119 billion and hold 6.5% of all existing Bitcoin, making them a permanent and crucial source of demand.A huge structural change, dubbed the "Vanguard Effect," also boosted demand. Vanguard, one of the world's largest investment managers with up to $10 trillion in assets, started allowing its clients to buy crypto ETFs and mutual funds tied to Bitcoin and other digital assets (like ETH, XRP, and SOL) on its platform.This move created immediate and massive demand, causing Bitcoin's price to jump 6% right when the US market opened. On that first day, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF recorded about $1 billion in trading volume in the first half-hour alone. By making it easier for cautious, long-term investments, such as retirement and pension funds, to buy Bitcoin, Vanguard has permanently expanded the asset's reach, ensuring strong, sustained demand well into 2026.Technical Analysis - BTC/USD The confluence of positive structural and technical factors lends strong support to bullish forecasts heading into 2026.Looking at structure and the setup appears highly bullish, the path forward will likely be non-linear and volatile.The four-hour chart below has seen a shift in structure with price breaking above the previous swing high and resting on support at 91804.Resistance to the upside may be found at 95000 before the 97000 and 100000 handles come into focus.A potential pullback toward 90000 or the recent breakout at around the 86600 mark cannot be ruled out before the next leg higher.The primary immediate risks center on macroeconomic data surprises. Any unexpectedly high reading in the PCE Inflation Data or stronger-than-expected labor reports could quickly dampen December rate cut expectations, triggering a sharp reversal in the relief rally.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, December 3, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Falling to $4,205, down 0.63%, gold pricing has retraced from recent highs in today’s trading.Having recently painted new six-week highs, rallying from support at $4,056, downside in today’s session can be considered primarily technical profit-taking.While the fundamental footing for precious metals remains firm, recent US data, particularly in the US labour market, continues to add to the dovish narrative, bolstering metal pricing.What’s next for gold?Gold (XAU/USD): Key takeaways 02/12/2025 Fair to say, recent gold upside comes almost entirely from developments around the Federal Reserve, with commentary suggesting an increasingly dovish stance ahead of their December decisionParticularly regarding recent US labour data, made worse by a ninth consecutive decline in industrial activity confirmed in yesterday’s US Manufacturing PMI report, the case for rate cuts is growing, benefiting gold pricingOtherwise, the running for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, the likely installation of a more Trump-aligned candidate, and the associated expectations of rate cuts, are further boosting the current rally Read Elior’s coverage on the recent crypto downside: Crypto recovery: Dead Cat Bounce or the start of a Buy-the-Dip?Gold (XAU/USD): Dovish Fed tilt in ascendancy I usually write about precious metal markets once a week or so, and seven days ago, I mentioned that something of a ‘dovish U-turn’ was currently underway, offering a new lease of life to recent gold upside.Since then, not only has gold price continued to rise by over 2%, but the dovish narrative also appears to be expanding, owing to recent US economic data. This is no coincidence, of course - the two variables are inextricably linked.As ever, let’s dive into some of the macroeconomic themes, but fair warning: this is going to be Federal Reserve-heavy. zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) vs Silver (XAG/USD), D1, OANDA, TradingView, 02/12/2025 Gold (XAU/USD): Fundamental Analysis 02/12/2025Policymakers Daly and Waller further dovish Fed narrative: It seems like yesterday that I was not only writing, but also appearing on the Market Insights Podcast, commenting on the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates in October, with the obvious question being if a third consecutive cut would follow in December.While it would be fair to say that markets anticipate rate cuts to come, the speed at which their easing cycle would continue was, of course, the $1,000,000 question.And by most accounts, the answer was a resounding yes, with many expecting a third 25 basis point cut would conclude 2025, leaving the target rate at 3.50-3.75%, its lowest level since late 2022.Since then, however, a growing hawkish sentiment emerged from the Federal Reserve, with odds of a December rate cut falling to less than ~50%, in line with policymaker commentary.At the time, Powell had previously cautioned markets on the assumption that cuts would continue thick and fast, and it seemed the markets were starting to believe that the December decision would be his chance to stand his ground, especially with a handsome beat to consensus for September’s NFP.In hindsight, however, this was the peak of the hawkish narrative, with what’s happened since signifying one of the most contested periods of monetary policy stance that I can remember.What started with Fed Williams, who made some dovish commentary speaking at a central bank conference in Chile, has continued with further dovish remarks from Daly and Waller, who have both cited the labour market as a larger priority than inflation, at least for now, with the latter generally trending lower. zoom_out_map CME FedWatch, 02/12/2025 The result, as seen above, is a return to the same level of conviction seen directly after the October interest rate decision, with markets predicting an 89.0% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in December and rates remaining unchanged in January.While markets have seemingly come full circle on monetary policy expectations, the notion of lower interest rates directly benefits gold, which explains, in no small part, recent upside.US economic data to support rate cut notions PositivesThe most recent NFP reading, and the last report before the Fed’s December decision, showed jobs added for September handsomely surpassed expectations, at +119,000 vs +50,000 expected NegativesNFP numbers for both July and August were revised lower in the September report, with +33,000 less jobs added to the US economy than previously expected#NFP number for both July and August were historically low when compared to previous yearsUnemployment is rising, up 4.3% to 4.4% August to September The astute amongst you will realise that the negatives far outweigh the positives.While September’s result somewhat vindicated the previous hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, it appears that, over time, the markets have become less convinced about the US labour market, alongside key Fed policymakers.While it would be a challenging task to use three-month-old data in a decision to maintain rates, the real kicker is that inflation appears to be under control at 2.1%, removing the primary justification for rates being so historically high in the first place.As a personal aside, it’s interesting to see that, despite the most significant labour data remaining unchanged, markets have been able to carve two separate narratives, using the same data to support both a hawkish or dovish stance - myself included.With that said, nothing in the market is black and white, although the Fed’s opinion is the one that matters.As such, the current angle on the US labour market adds to expectations for lower rates in December, boosting gold pricing.Gold (XAU/USD): Technical Analysis 02/12/2025XAU/USD: Daily (D1) chart analysis: zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD), D1, OANDA, TradingView, 02/12/2025 While the above paints a rosy picture for gold, it would be remiss not to mention that price has fallen somewhat in today’s trading, likely owing to technical profit-taking, albeit having recovered losses from earlier in the session.I would be comfortable saying, however, that gold remains well supported both technically and fundamentally, with previous highs of $4,202 acting as the closest level of support.Otherwise, and to the upside, our previous target of $4,240 has been met, with the price forming a pin bar to represent resistance.To the upside, our next target is, of course, all-time highs; however, traders should be aware of the impending reduction in volatility due to the holiday season.Price targets and support/resistance levels: Resistance #1 - $4,240 - Previous support/resistancePrice target/Resistance #2 - $4,381 - All-time highsSupport #1 - $4,202 - Previous highSupport #2 - $4,056 - 20-Period SMASupport #3 - $4,000 - Key psychological levelSupport #4 - $3,889 - Swing low Read more about precious metals in today’s session: Silver (XAG/USD) is the sole performer, heading toward a new ATH Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 2Today marked another start to December trading, with Equities particularly relating to tech, and Cryptocurrencies leading Market performance and dragging sentiment to a more positive note.These two were subject to considerable rejection since mid-October as flows turned to risk-on yet more defensive, lower beta assets. This notably helped the Dow Jones to reach new records during the global risk-deleveraging last month.Now, Bitcoin rallied sharply back above $90,000 and Nasdaq is the best performer out of the three US Major Indexes – So, are things back like they were?Not entirely – Some bellwether stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) are still lagging, Meta has corrected substantially and the overall sentiment around the Tech-Semiconductor sectors remains one of caution.A bubble never pops when everyone expects it.Elsewhere, US President Trump made hints of National Economic Council Secretary Kevin Hassett being his favorite candidate for the Fed Chair.He will still be required to get voted in throughout the beginning of 2026 by the Senate. Read More:Silver (XAG/USD) is the sole performer, heading toward a new ATHCrypto recovery: Dead Cat Bounce or the start of a Buy-the-Dip?Dow Jones (DJIA) Outlook: Could the Christmas Spirit awaken?Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin really stole the show in today's session – You can see how risk-assets dominated today's session (excluding Oil, victim of its own dynamics).Gold has got rejected particularly harshly so this will be a development to follow in upcoming days.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, December 2 – Source: OANDA Labs Today's risk-on session spreaded to Currency Markets, serving the Antipodean currencies pretty well. On the other hand, the Yen dropped by similar margin to which it had appreciated yesterday.FX movement is still relatively subdued. Markets are hanging around their current levels in the waiting of Friday's US Core PCE release and even more importantly, next Wednesday's FOMC meeting.Expect some rangebound action all around in the meantime. And of course, never underestimate the releases until then.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The session is not over yet for AUD traders, who have the most significant domestic data release of the quarter on deck.The evening session will turn the eyes towards Australian GDP (Q3) at 19:30 ET. Growth is expected to tick up to 0.7% QoQ. A strong print here is essential to maintain the RBA's hawkish-hold stance; a miss could quickly price in earlier rate cuts. This is followed by China's Services PMI at 20:45 ET, providing a health check on the region's largest trading partner.Tomorrow's session (Wednesday) is packed with central bank rhetoric and critical US service-sector data.The early European session features final PMI readings and PPI data, but the real focus will be on the ECB. President Lagarde speaks twice (08:30 & 10:30 A.M. ET), flanked by Chief Economist Lane. The North American Session will likely drive the most volatility: The day starts with a potential shocker: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (08:15 A.M. ET). The consensus is set at a small +5K (down from 42K), which would signal a stall in private hiring just before the official NFP release and corroborate the weekly ADP readings.However, the main event is the ISM Services PMI at 10:00 A.M. ET. As the largest sector of the US economy, a reading near the consensus of 52.1 is expected. Traders should watch the Prices Paid index (previous 70) to see if service-sector inflation remains sticky.The evening wraps up with AUD Trade Balance (19:30 ET), keeping the Aussie dollar in play. Safe Trades and a successful December!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Our preceding analysis on Silver could not have been more wrong.With the FOMC approaching and bouts of up-and-down action across all metals, what we thought to be a temporary top leading to a potential range was, in fact, just a retracement. And that retracement was an opportunity not lost on Silver traders: a stark run during month-end trading took the precious metal to new record highs, grazing the $58.85 level.The dovish repricing for the Fed's December 10 Meeting—main catalyst of the renewed "everything-rally" (or Debasement Trade) seen throughout stocks in the past week—was fuel for a sharp rally across the entire metals complex. zoom_out_map Metals performance since November 2025 – Source: TradingView However, a distinct divergence has emerged in today's session. Gold, Platinum, and Copper have all rejected their recent highs established on Friday, correcting lower as traders book profits. It is a different story for Silver, which is showing remarkable relative strength, hanging less than 1% below its $58.85 record and running towards its retest.Will it keep rallying or is the move finally over? Let's dive into the charts to see if this breakout has legs. Read More:Crypto recovery: Dead Cat Bounce or the start of a Buy-the-Dip?Can Platinum catch up to Gold? Platinum (XPT/USD) Price ForecastThe US Dollar is lost in translation – Dollar Index (DXY) OutlookSilver (XAG/USD) Multi-timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map Silver Daily Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView The month-end action took Silver prices to a strong breakout after a month-and-half consolidation.A double top did form throughout the two tests of the preceding $55.00 record, however, double top doesn't mean instant bear market.On the other hand, it may have acted as a contrarian-fuel for higher prices as bearish positions accumulated before the month-end rally changed the plans.Back to current trading, bulls have brought the metal right back into its $58.00 to $60 Resistance Zone, precedingly obtained with Fibonacci Extensions (see explanation here).With the zone extending over a $2 range, there is space for trading but what traders should look is whether prices break and close above $60 on a daily session or if prices actually close below $58, indicating some rejection.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Silver 4H Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView The price action is getting tricky as buyer strength stands strong and prices are consolidating at the highs (typically bullish) but a 4H divergence is appearing.Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:Resistance Levels:Fibonacci-Extension Resistance $58.00 to $60December 1 All-Time Highs $56.85$53.50 to $54 current ATH resistancePotential resistance $62 to $65 (1.618 from Impulsive Move)Support Levels:$53.50 to $54 Previous ATH resistance now PivotMini-support $52.00 to $52.50$48.50 to $49.50 2011 High SupportOctober FOMC bottom $46.00 to $47.00$45.55 October 28 lows1H Chart zoom_out_map Silver 1H Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView The rangebound action is occuring much higher than last week – As higher momentum charts stand in overbought territory, short-term consolidation at the highs serve to reduce effect of overbought trading.An ongoing move might take on the record highs reached yesterday – For intraday analysis look at the 1H 50-period Moving Average, frequently used by buyers in this uptrend.Holding it provides entry points to join the rally, while breaking the Moving Averages gives signal of a short-term bearish reversal.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Cryptocurrencies are finally bouncing from their relative lows, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $90,000 level after bottoming near $80,500 on Friday, November 21.Traders are scared, and for good reason: elevated valuations and an ecstatic mood in early autumn had led to extreme positioning, which consequently triggered a cascade of liquidations and stops. The first major crack appeared shortly after Bitcoin reached its new record at $126,400 in mid-October, where a dark weekly closure led to a gigantic flash-crash. After that, the recovery was swift but proved temporary, materializing into a consistent, progressive selloff that dragged on all the way to the final week of November.Low volumes are now the norm in this scarred market, but with selling flows largely reducing, some bottoms may have finally formed. The question remains: Are the recent lows dips to buy or traps to avoid? zoom_out_map Current Session in Cryptos – Green throughout but some mid-day profit-taking – December 2, 2025 (12:01). Source: FInviz As mentioned in one of our previous crypto-selloff analyses, the answer depends entirely on your investment horizon and risk appetite. If you seek ideas on how to invest progressively without trying to catch a falling knife, I invite you to check this piece out.Market sentiment is still weak, but the daily session is a strong one. Ethereum is now hanging around $3,000 again, and Bitcoin is holding $90,000, recovering even after a terrible monthly open yesterday caused by MicroStrategy investor panic—likely fueled by fears over its collapsing premium and leverage sustainability.Let's access a few intraday charts and levels for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana so you can decide whether this is an opportunity or not.The Total Market Cap slowly recovers zoom_out_map Crypto Total Market Cap. December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin 8H Chart zoom_out_map Bitcoin (BTC) 8H Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin is still evolving within its descending channel but is bouncing from its lows, inducing some dip-buying recovery activity.Closing above the higher bound of the Pivot Zone ($92,000) would point to a test of the Channel's higher bound around $98,000.For a higher timeframe bull-momentum restart, a weekly close above $100,000 will be required.Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels:$90,000 to 93,000 major support turned PivotCurrent Weekly Lows $89,340$85,000 mid-term Support (+/- $1,500)$75,000 Key long-term supportResistance Levels:$90,000 to 93,000 major support turned Pivot$98,000 to $100,000 Main Support, now Pivot (MA 50 at $100,000)$102,000 Bear Channel HighsResistance at previous ATH $106,000 to $108,000Current ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000Ethereum 8H Chart zoom_out_map Ethereum (ETH) 8H Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Ethereum still has trouble to close above the $3,000 mark but is forming some better looking price action:The recent buying is occurring at the mid-line of the October descending channel, prompting more odds of a bullish breakout.Similarly as Bitcoin however, a close above its $3,000 to $3,200 Pivot will be required to allow for a return to a bullish mid-term bias in ETH.Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:$2,500 to $2,700 June Key Support (recent rebound)$2,620 Session and weekly Lows$2,100 June War support$1,385 to $1,750 2025 Support2025 Lows $1,384Resistance Levels:$3,000 to $3,200 Major momentum Pivot (Test of the $3,000)$3,500 (+/- $50) Resistance and Descending Channel highs$3,800 September lows$4,000 to Dec 2024 top Higher timeframe Resistance zone$4,950 Current new All-time highsSolana 8H Chart zoom_out_map Solana (SOL) 8H Chart, December 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView The story repeats for Solana, but the harshly-rejected crypto is showing signs of life, breaking its past week's descending price action and testing the $140 level.Track how it performs within its descending channel: The $160 to $170 resistance level will be the hurdle to breach to relaunch bullish prospects for the third largest crypto.Levels to keep on your SOL Charts:Support Levels:Main Support $125 to $130 (Recent bounce)$110 to $115 SupportWeekly lows $123Support 3: $100 to $105Resistance Levels:$140 to $150 Major Pivot (testing)Channel highs and October Pivot resistance $165 to $170$180 to $190 ResistancePsychological level $200 to $205$253 Cycle highs Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Stocks Largely Flat Most Read: The Bank of Japan's FX Intervention: Mechanism, Impact, and Historical PrecedentAsian stock markets bounced back after a selloff on Monday, which was led by sharp drops in risky assets worldwide, including cryptocurrencies.The main MSCI regional stock index climbed as much as 0.5% before pulling back slightly. Markets that rely heavily on technology, such as South Korea and Taiwan, performed well.However, Japan's Nikkei stock index ended Tuesday virtually flat, trading quietly after a 1.9% tumble on Monday that pushed it below the key 50,000 level. The biggest positive mover for the Nikkei index on Tuesday was Fast Retailing (the owner of Uniqlo), whose 1.8% rise contributed significantly to the index's value due to its large size. Conversely, the biggest drag on the Nikkei was the startup investor SoftBank Group, a major local beneficiary of the AI boom, which tumbled 5.2%.Overall, the Nikkei was almost evenly split, with 112 stocks rising and 111 falling.The broader Topix index also added a negligible amount, less than 0.1%, recovering slightly from its 1.2% slide the day before.Euro Area Inflation Edges Higher Inflation in the Euro area rose slightly in November 2025, hitting 2.2%, up from 2.1% in October, and slightly higher than experts expected.The price increases for services sped up to 3.5%, the highest rate since April, and energy prices fell more slowly than before. Prices for factory-made goods and for food, alcohol, and tobacco remained unchanged. When you strip out the volatile items like energy and food (Core Inflation), the rate held steady at 2.4%.Among the biggest European economies, Germany’s inflation rate jumped to 2.6%, the highest it has been since February and now above the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target. In contrast, inflation slowed down slightly in Spain (to 3.1%) and dropped more significantly in the Netherlands (to 2.6%).Meanwhile, inflation in both France (0.8%) and Italy (1.1%) remained well below the ECB's target.European Session - European Stocks Eye Recovery European stock markets experienced a drop on Tuesday, continuing the minor declines from the previous day. The main European index, the STOXX 600, was down 0.1%.However, major country stock exchanges like those in Germany and France were both up slightly, gaining about 0.1% each. Healthcare stocks were the biggest reason for the overall decline, falling 0.3% due to losses in large companies like AstraZeneca and Novo Nordisk.Despite this, the sector's losses were contained because the German pharmaceutical firm Bayer surged by about 15%. This jump happened after the U.S. government, led by President Donald Trump's administration, encouraged the Supreme Court to hear Bayer's appeal to stop thousands of lawsuits related to its Roundup weed-killer supposedly causing cancer.Meanwhile, other sectors like consumer discretionary stocks (including luxury goods and car companies) also traded lower. In other news, the market is monitoring a scheduled meeting between President Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and his son-in-law Jared Kushner with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a potential ceasefire in Ukraine.Among individual stocks, FDJ United shares fell 4.2% after J.P. Morgan lowered its rating on the lottery and online game operator. Finally, investors are now looking ahead to the release of preliminary inflation data for the euro zone later today.On the FX front, the US dollar remained steady on Tuesday, helped by a successful sale of Japanese government debt that reassured investors after a selloff in bonds globally earlier in the week. The dollar went up 0.1% against the Japanese yen, reaching 155.72, after a strong auction of 10-year Japanese government bonds stabilized the bond market.The overall US dollar index, which measures its strength against other major currencies, saw minor ups and downs but was last trading slightly higher at 99.441, ending a seven-day losing streak.The euro was holding steady at $1.1610 as peace talks regarding the war in Ukraine continued; European leaders showed strong support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, particularly after a previous US-supported peace plan seemed to favor Russia, while a US special envoy traveled to Moscow for more discussions.The British pound was 0.1% stronger at $1.3217, remaining near its highest level in a month, despite the head of Britain's fiscal watchdog resigning after his agency accidentally released details of the government's budget before the Finance Minister announced them.Finally, the Australian dollar gained 0.2% to 0.6553, and the New Zealand dollar (kiwi) was steady at 0.57264.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices remained mostly stable on Tuesday. Traders were assessing two main risks: the first was the ongoing threat from Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy facilities, and the second was the increasing tension between the US and Venezuela.Specifically, Brent crude futures dipped slightly by 19 cents (0.3%) to trade at 62.98 a barrel.The current price of spot gold dropped by 0.9% to $4,191.79/oz.This decline was primarily driven by two factors: the first was the increase in US Treasury yields, which makes holding gold (which does not provide interest) less appealing to investors; and the second was profit-taking by traders who decided to sell their gold after the price had reached a six-week high in the previous trading session.Read More:The US Dollar is lost in translation – Dollar Index (DXY) OutlookSilver (XAG/USD) Price Outlook: Failed Breakout and Double-Top hints at Rangebound actionOil falls below $58 as Ukraine agrees to 19-point Peace PlanEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session will be quiet today with a lack of high impact data releases.The US session will also be a quiet one with very little in terms of data.For more information on the week ahead, read The Week Ahead of the December FOMC – Markets Weekly Outlook zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has held above the 100-day MA since Thursday afternoon.This could be seen as a sign of bullish momentum with a potential breakout coming soon.However, the longer price remains rangebound, this will increase investor angst and a potential pullback may materialize.For now though, a bullish move appears more favorable as markets enter the final month of 2025.Immediate support rests at 9686, 9661 and 9646 respectively.A move higher may encounter some resistance at 9750, 9800 and 9850.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, December 2, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 1The new month of trading begins with quite some violent mean-reversion across asset classes.US Stocks opened much lower compared to their strong Friday close before rebounding sharply and rejecting new highs again, in a session marked by indecision. Cryptos continued to sell off amid the MicroStrategy (MSTR) "funding catastrophe" narrative—fueled by fears of index exclusion and a potential "death spiral" for its leverage-heavy model—along with general deleveraging across the sector. The US Dollar led currency markets to some wild swings, opening sharply lower before taking on a V-shape recovery to trade near flat by the afternoon. zoom_out_map Bitcoin 1H Chart, December 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView US Politics made the headlines again, with announcements regarding operations against Venezuela awaited at the top of the hour, following high-level meetings between President Trump and his top aides.US President Trump was also in the middle of the news. The White House confirmed his health exam was perfect amid some concerns. Meanwhile, headlines seemed to try to sink some more pessimistic plans against his precious tariffs: Costco and other major retailers have joined lawsuits to sue the Trump administration for refunds if the tariffs are struck down by the Supreme Court. It seems that the White House is already preparing for a potential defeat in court, with aides reportedly drafting a "Plan B" to maintain economic pressure.Geopolitics might make their re-emergence in headlines after months of lesser appearance amid no new developments – French President Macron and Ukraine's Zelenskyy appeared in France today in a stand of force, discussing revisions to the peace plan to pressure Russia into a ceasefire.Markets are just getting started for December trading and it will be quite an intense ride. Expect a volatile, compact month of action full of ups and downs, before and after the December 10 FOMC, as traders start to take their Year-end holidays. Read More:The US Dollar is lost in translation – Dollar Index (DXY) OutlookUS Stocks stumble: Markets catch a cold to start DecemberThe Week Ahead of the December FOMC – Markets Weekly OutlookCross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView Assets at the extreme of the risk-spectrum were getting sold off quite aggressively throughout the overnight and morning session, however some mean-reversion largely helped the outflows.Keep an eye on metals this week as Silver is catching all the attention yet again, going parabolic in today's session.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, December 1 – Source: OANDA Labs JPY took the markets by surprise in today's trading after a hawkish turn from Bank of Japan's Ueda yesterday evening.Other FX currencies were taking it chill before the US dollar ruined the party. A V-shape rebound in the Greenback (look at the Green line around 13:00) confirmed a potential USD range, which may have interesting implications all the way to the FOMC (check out our recent USD analysis!)A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The evening session will turn the eyes towards Fed Chair Powell's speech at 20:00 ET. No comments regarding the December 10 meeting should be published as the Fed is still in its Blackout Period (no comments on Monetary policy allowed by its members). AUD traders will also have to monitor the Building Permits (19:30 ET) release just before.Tomorrow's session (December 2) brings the spotlight back to Europe with high-stakes inflation data. The early birds will assist to the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) at 05:00 A.M. ET. This is the critical inflation gauge for the ECB; with the Core YoY expected to tick up to 2.5%.The US Session should be quieter on the data front, but policy remains in focus. While there are no top-tier data releases, Fed's Bowman is scheduled to speak at 10:00 A.M. ET, offering further clues on the Fed's stance following Powell's overnight comments.The evening will however be the most important:Australian GDP data will heat up the evening session at 19:30 ET. Growth is expected to pick up slightly (0.7% QoQ), but any miss here would weigh heavily on the Aussie Dollar. This is followed by China's Services PMI at 20:45 ET, rounding out a heavy APAC session.Safe Trades and a successful December!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Catalysts for movements in the US Dollar have been confusing all types of Market Participants. Reaching new cycle highs during the longest ever US Government shutdown (43 days), the Greenback consequently fell as the government reopened, driven by dovish hopes for the December 10 FOMC meeting. Current yo-yos in the dollar are leaving traders in question.All of this comes after a massive downtrend throughout the first half of the year due to tariffs and unpredictable policies from Donald Trump, requiring dollar-diversification from many economic and political parties around the world. Dollar funding is also not at its best levels, with Reverse Repo (RRP) facilities (Bank Reserves at the Fed) at the lowest levels in years, a liquidity drain that is provoking significantly more volatile movements in the USD.The pricing for the FOMC meeting, the last one of the year occurring in 10 days, peaked Friday very close to 90% and has now backed down to 85% amidst a lack of fresh data to influence pricing. Friday's Core PCE report may affect the entire pricing. zoom_out_map Rate Cut Pricing for the December 10 FOMC Meeting, December 1, 2025 – Source: CMEGroup At its session lows, the Dollar Index was down almost 1.50% from its past week highs but has been subject to a V-shape rebound today. The latest story? The White House could be preparing for a defeat regarding tariffs—potentially linked to recent court challenges blocking IEEPA-based levies—bringing natural mean-reversion flows to the dollar after quite a brutal weekly open.Let's dive into Dollar Index charts as the USD makes its way back to being the second best performer of the FX session to start December. Read More:US Stocks stumble: Markets catch a cold to start DecemberMarkets Today: Silver Hits $58/oz, Gold Soars to $4250/oz, China PMI at 4-Month Lows. Geopolitics and US PMI in FocusThe Week Ahead of the December FOMC – Markets Weekly OutlookDollar Index (DXY) Multi-timeframe OutlookDaily Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, December 1 2025 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar has seen some violent up and down swings in November after a flawless ascent.After forming a bottom at the September FOMC (highlighted in a preceding USD analysis), the Greenback gained back a lot of traction and peaked at 100.376 on November 20.Having double topped at this point but also double bottomed after today's rebound, confusing reversals point towards a large trading range between 99.00 and 100.00.Some banks are expressing concerns regarding the low levels of Reserves and with the confusion regarding the future path of Fed Cuts, a much lower correction is being prevented.Individual currencies are also subject to their own dynamics like the Yen (JPY) retaking some ground after BoJ Governor Ueda's comments, in between much else.To spot how sharp the reversals are, let's take a closer look to intraday timeframes.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart, December 1 2025 – Source: TradingView You can spot further details on the V-shaped action in the US Dollar today which also corresponded to a test of oversold RSI levels.The more rangebound a price action will be, the more it will respond to extreme conditions in RSI or other momentum indicators.The recent low rebound points to immediate USD strength but it will face some hurdles which we will see on the 1H timeframe.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance zone100.376 November highs99.80 mini-resistance99.40 to 99.50 Key Pivot (Immediate Test)Support LevelsHigher timeframe Pivot 98.80 to 99.00 (Daily Rebound and range lows)Past week lows and double bottom 99.03Mini-support 98.50 and 200-Day MAMain support 98.001H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart, December 1 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dollar Index is forming an hourly descending Channel which served as support for the Daily rebound.Now testing the Key Pivot (99.40 to 99.50), it will be interesting to see if the reversal higher extends to confirm the Range – Keep an eye on the 50-Hour MA (at 99.47)For this, dollar bulls will also have to break out of the hourly channel.If they do, the range is confirmed. Rejecting the highs of the channel would on the other hand maintain the downward momentum.It will be interesting to keep an eye on changes to the pricing for the FOMC meeting.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Markets Show Signs of Risk Aversion Most Read: The Bank of Japan's FX Intervention: Mechanism, Impact, and Historical PrecedentMarkets showed caution around the world on Monday, as investors prepare for a busy week of new economic data. US stock futures and cryptocurrencies both declined, suggesting investors were avoiding risk, even though most still expect the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December.In Japan, the Nikkei stock index fell sharply, dropping 1.68% after four straight days of gains. This decline was triggered by two factors: rising Japanese government bond yields and a strengthening yen. Both of these changes were fueled by comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, which increased speculation that the central bank might raise interest rates as soon as this month. Because of this speculation, banks saw their shares rise significantly, including Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (+2.75%) and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (+2.33%).Conversely, most other sectors declined. The technology sector was hit hard, with chip-testing equipment maker Advantest and Uniqlo owner Fast Retailing both losing ground. Optic fibre cable maker Fujikura was the biggest loser on the Nikkei, plummeting 8.58%. The energy sector was the worst-performing overall.China Manufacturing PMI at 4-Month Lows The latest survey of China's factory sector showed a minor slowdown in November 2025. The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9, down from 50.6 the month before, and was slightly weaker than analysts had predicted.Because the figure fell just below the 50-point mark, it signals a slight contraction (or drop) in factory activity. Overall production and the level of new orders remained mostly flat. Factories also reduced their workforce again (renewed job cuts) and purchased fewer materials. However, there was a bright spot: new orders from foreign customers grew at the fastest pace in eight months thanks to business efforts to expand. Suppliers also delivered materials quicker due to lower factory purchases and better communication.Regarding prices, the cost of raw materials continued to increase, mostly driven by higher metal prices, though the rate of this inflation slowed down. Meanwhile, the prices that factories charge for their finished goods actually fell due to strong competition. Looking ahead, companies were more optimistic about the future, encouraged by new government policies, expansion plans, and the launch of new products.European Session - European Stocks Slide European stocks fell on Monday, losing ground after a strong month in November. Investors became more cautious, leading to a wave of "risk aversion" across the markets.The main European index, the STOXX 600, dropped 0.4%. Key national markets in Germany and France saw similar declines of 0.5%. Following a solid run in November, which had calmed fears about a potential bubble in Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks, traders are now looking for new reasons to buy. The main focus this week will be on new economic reports and early signs of how much people spent over the Black Friday and Cyber Monday holiday shopping period.The biggest reason for the overall market slump was the industrial sector, which dropped by 1.3%. This slide was mainly due to two areas: Airbus and defence stocks. Planemaker Airbus saw its shares fall 2.1% after it had to recall and order immediate software repairs for 6,000 jets globally, more than half of its worldwide fleet.Meanwhile, shares in major defence companies, including Hensoldt, Rheinmetall, and Leonardo, also dropped by more than 3% each.Finally, London-listed Impax Asset Management also saw its stock fall by 3.6% after releasing its yearly financial results. On the geopolitical front, officials from the U.S. and Ukraine held encouraging talks on Sunday about a possible peace deal with Russia, though US officials remained cautiously optimistic given the obstacles to ending the three-year conflict.On the FX front, the yen grew stronger on Monday. This was largely because the Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, gave a very strong hint that the central bank might consider raising interest rates at its policy meeting in December. This unexpected possibility caused the yen to rally, pushing the US dollar down 0.4% against it to 155.51 yen.Meanwhile, the dollar struggled overall because investors are increasingly betting that the US central bank will cut interest rates later this month.This environment helped the euro climb to a two-week high of $1.16155. In contrast, the British pound (sterling) dipped 0.2% to $1.3211, taking a pause after its best weekly performance in over three months, which had followed the UK's recent budget announcement.Finally, cryptocurrencies saw a sharp drop, with Bitcoin falling 5.7% to $85,949 and ether dropping 6.4% to $2,828.41.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices increased by 2% on Monday, reaching their highest point in over a week, due to several factors raising concerns about the future supply of oil.First, the group of major oil-producing countries known as OPEC+ confirmed their current plan to keep oil production levels unchanged, meaning they will not increase the amount of oil being pumped into the market. Second, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium completely stopped exporting oil after a significant drone attack occurred in the area. Third, growing tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela also added to supply worries.Because of these concerns, the price of Brent crude oil futures rose by 1.96% to $63.60/barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures jumped by 2.08% to $59.77 per barrel.Gold prices rose significantly on Monday, reaching their highest value in a month and a half. This climb was mainly driven by investors expecting that the US Federal Reserve might cut interest rates later this month, combined with changes in the Fed's leadership.Specifically, the price of spot gold increased by 0.3% to $4,249.21/oz.Furthermore, silver also experienced a major jump, surging to a record high price. The futures contracts for US gold for December delivery saw an even bigger gain, rising 0.5% to $4,275.40.Read More:Gold (XAU/USD) Price Up 2.5% for the Week. Is a Break of $4200/oz a Certainty?Can Platinum catch up to Gold? Platinum (XPT/USD) Price ForecastEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session will be quiet today with attention largely focused on Geopolitics before the US session begins.The US session will bring PMI and ISM data which could impact the US Dollar as markets get back to normal following the US Thanksgiving break at the back end of last week. This will be a busy week for the US in terms of data as well as how rate cut expectations continue to evolve ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.For more information on the week ahead, read The Week Ahead of the December FOMC – Markets Weekly Outlook zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has held above the 100-day MA since Thursday afternoon.This could be seen as a sign of bullish momentum with a potential breakout coming soon.However, the longer price remains rangebound, this will increase investor angst and a potential pullback may materialize.For now though, a bullish move appears more favorable as markets enter the final month of 2025.Immediate support rests at 9686, 9661 and 9638 respectively.A move higher may encounter some resistance at 9750, 9800 and 9850.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, December 1. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

OPEC+ meets this Sunday, with no major policy shifts expected.Oil prices remain driven by speculation about a possible Ukraine ceasefire.Iraq’s overproduction raises internal tensions and calls for a higher quota.A minor technical adjustment to Iraq’s allocation is the most likely outcome. zoom_out_map Chart of Brent crude oil prices (CFD contract), daily data, source: TradingView Expectations for OPEC+ and the State of the Oil Market With the next OPEC+ meeting scheduled for this coming Sunday, the gathering is not expected to produce any major shifts in the group’s production strategy. Output limits remain locked in place through the end of 2026, and the eight countries that implemented voluntary production cuts have already confirmed that they will not increase production in the first quarter. This effectively limits the scope of the meeting to minor technical adjustments rather than meaningful policy changes. As a result, short-term operational strategy remains outside the agenda, reinforcing the view that the alliance intends to maintain continuity rather than surprise the market.Geopolitical Factors and Their Impact on Oil Prices Oil prices continue to be shaped largely by geopolitical speculation, particularly regarding the potential for a ceasefire in Ukraine. The rising probability of such an outcome has exerted downward pressure on crude prices, as a ceasefire would reduce the risk of attacks on energy infrastructure and could pave the way for partial or even full easing of sanctions. Still, the prospects for a near-term, credible peace agreement remain limited. Consequently, Brent prices have stabilized in the middle of the range seen since early October. The market’s lack of strong upward momentum also reflects the expectation that OPEC+ will avoid taking any breakthrough decisions during Sunday’s meeting.Internal Tensions within OPEC+: The Case of Iraq Although sweeping strategic changes remain unlikely, several internal issues require coordination. The International Energy Agency highlights that some member countries continue to produce well above their assigned quotas, with Iraq being the most notable case. The resumption of northern pipeline exports and growing production capabilities have strengthened Iraq’s case for a higher quota—similar to the adjustment granted to the United Arab Emirates last year. However, such changes must be carefully calibrated. Over-constraining certain members risks prompting withdrawals from the organization, as seen with Angola’s departure two years ago.Outlook and a Potential Compromise In this context, OPEC+ may opt for a moderate adjustment to Iraq’s production quota as a way to maintain unity within the group. The alliance must strike a balance between enforcing production discipline and preserving internal solidarity. While a change of this nature would be more symbolic than market-moving, it could help ensure long-term cohesion. Overall, Sunday’s meeting is likely to reaffirm OPEC+’s preference for incremental fine-tuning rather than major strategic pivots, underscoring its focus on internal relationship management rather than aggressive intervention in global oil supply. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - CME Trading Glitch Most Read: The Bank of Japan's FX Intervention: Mechanism, Impact, and Historical PrecedentTrading on the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange), which handles futures and options, had to be stopped because of a technical glitch. This problem specifically impacted the ability to trade things like US Treasury futures and S&P 500 Index contracts. Because the CME was down, it also caused problems for forex trading on the EBS platform.Meanwhile, global stocks, as measured by the MSCI All Country World Index, barely moved as investors lacked clear direction right after the US Thanksgiving holiday, though the index still managed to finish the entire week up by 3.1%. Asian stock markets were generally steady, but they are currently on track for their first monthly drop since March.The main index for Asia-Pacific stocks outside of Japan fell slightly by 0.3% on Friday, yet it was still up 2.7% for the week (the first weekly gain in a month), but it remains down 3% for the whole month.Japan's Nikkei stock index saw little movement on Friday and is set to end the week up by 3.2%, but it is still down 4.3% for the month.Samsung Electronics 005930.KS and SK Hynix 000660.KS fell around 2% each.German Retail Sales Fall, French Inflation Steady In Germany, retail sales fell by 0.3% in October 2025 compared to the previous month. This was a surprise, as markets had expected a small increase, and it reversed the slight gain seen in September. This marks the fifth time sales have dropped this year, driven mainly by a 0.7% decline in sales of non-food items and a 0.6% fall in online and mail-order business.In France, the annual inflation rate remained stable at 0.9% in November 2025, which was lower than the 1% rate forecasters expected. This steady rate was due to slower price increases for services (especially communication costs) and a slightly bigger drop in the prices of manufactured goods. These effects were partially balanced out by energy prices falling less sharply than before, and food inflation speeding up just slightly.Finally, France's inflation rate, when measured using the EU's standard method (Harmonised CPI), also stayed at 0.87% annually and fell 0.2% from the previous month.European Session - Sombre Black Friday European stock prices barely changed on Friday.Despite this, they are on track to have their best week in two months and are set for a fifth straight month of gains, mainly because investors are increasingly betting that the US will cut interest rates soon. Investors avoided making large trades as they headed into the weekend, especially with the U.S. stock market only open for a half-day.Trading was further complicated by a technical failure at the CME Group, which stopped trading on its key currency platform and on futures markets for things like stocks, effectively freezing several major stock indexes as brokers withdrew their products.The main European stock index, the STOXX 600, slipped slightly by 0.1%, but it is still heading for its longest streak of monthly wins since March 2024.Within the index, Energy stocks performed the best, rising 0.3% because oil prices went up. Travel and leisure stocks were the worst performers this morning, dropping 0.7%. In company news,Delivery Hero shares jumped 8.75% after a report suggested that investors are pressuring the management to consider selling the company or breaking up parts of the business.On the FX front, the US dollar is currently set for its biggest weekly drop since late July. This weakness is because traders are increasingly expecting the Federal Reserve to further lower interest rates next month. The market was also quieter than usual because of the US Thanksgiving holiday.The dollar index, which tracks the dollar's value against six other major currencies, was up slightly by 0.1% at 99.624, recovering a bit after five days of losses.In Asia, the Japanese yen saw its value move up and down after a recent period of decline; it was last 0.1% weaker at 156.385 yen as strong job market and inflation data suggested that Japan might tighten its monetary policy. The euro was stable at 1.1600.The British pound was 0.1% weaker at $1.323 on the day, but it is still heading for its best weekly performance since early August, following the UK Finance Minister's plan to raise £26 billion ($34 billion) in taxes.The Australian dollar gained slightly, up 0.1% at $0.6536. Finally, the offshore Chinese yuan was steady at 7.074 yuan per US dollar and is on track for its best monthly gain since August.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs The price of Brent crude oil futures rose slightly on Friday. This was due to ongoing tensions because the Russia-Ukraine peace talks are dragging out, which keeps geopolitical risks high.Additionally, traders were watching the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on Sunday for any signals about whether the group plans to change how much oil it produces.Separately, the trading of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures was stopped because of the CME Group system issue.Spot prices for gold increased and are heading for their fourth monthly gain in a row. This rise is mainly supported by investors who are optimistic that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December.However,just before the CME outage, US gold futures for December delivery were priced at $4,221.30/oz.Read More:Gold (XAU/USD) Price Up 2.5% for the Week. Is a Break of $4200/oz a Certainty?Silver (XAG/USD) Price Outlook: Failed Breakout and Double-Top hints at Rangebound actionOil falls below $58 as Ukraine agrees to 19-point Peace PlanEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session will be all the focus given that US markets will close early.We still have German inflation data to be released before eyes turn to the Canadian GDP release early in the US session..Market participants are still paying close attention to geopolitical news, but so far, it hasn't had a major effect on currency exchange rates. Yesterday, President Putin suggested that the agreement being discussed in Geneva could serve as a starting point for a future peace deal with Ukraine.Adding to this, Steve Witkoff, the US peace envoy, is confirmed to visit Moscow next week. Because of this upcoming visit, we might see growing hopes that a major breakthrough in the negotiations is possible. Although the financial markets are quite doubtful that a peace deal will actually happen, any real progress from this point onward is expected to cause the US dollar to weaken and potentially boost the value of higher-risk European currencies. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has continued its recovery bouncing off support at the 9660 support handle yesterday.The index trades above the 100-day MA again with further gains toward 9750 and beyond a possibility.A pullback now faces support at 9630 (200-day MA) and the 9550 handle which could prove a tough nut to crack for bears.The RSI period-14 remains above the 50 mark which is a sign of bullish momentum.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, November 28. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Labour government is set to release a crucial budget plan on November 26. Instead of announcing new spending, the main goal is to prove that the government is being careful with money to keep financial markets stable. Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces a tough challenge as she tries to stick to the strict financial rules she created for herself. Her plan focuses on three main priorities: reducing the time people wait for healthcare (NHS), paying down the country's debt, and lowering the cost of living for everyone.Read More: Gold Price Forecast: Bullion rallies to $4,118 key level as markets increase Fed rate cut betsThe Immediate Fiscal Challenge and the OBR Downgrade The economic context necessitates aggressive action. The pressure begins with the widely anticipated forecast revision by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which publishes its updated economic and public finances outlook concurrently with the Budget statement.Experts expect the OBR to admit that its previous growth predictions were too optimistic, which will likely reveal a hole in the government’s finances of £20 to £30 billion. This problem is made worse by the fact that the government has already borrowed nearly £10 billion more this year than originally planned.Market participants are watching closely; if the government cannot prove it has a credible plan to fix this gap and build a safety cushion, investors will lose trust. This loss of confidence would make it much more expensive for the UK to borrow money, as it would suggest the government is reacting to a crisis rather than following a solid, long-term strategy.Policy Watchlist: The Mechanics of Stealth and Wealth Taxation Labour's fiscal strategy is heavily constrained by explicit manifesto pledges ruling out any increases to the rates of Income Tax (basic, higher, or additional), National Insurance, or VAT, alongside a commitment to cap Corporation Tax at 25%. To close the substantial fiscal gap, estimated to require gross revenue generation approaching £30–40 billion (when accounting for non-negotiable spending), the Chancellor is compelled to employ a strategy focused on "stealth" taxes and targeted measures on wealth.The Engine of Revenue: Stealth Taxation via Fiscal DragThe main way the government plans to raise this money is by freezing the income levels at which people start paying tax. Even though official tax rates aren't changing, rising wages and inflation (which was 3.6% in October 2025) mean that more people will be pushed into higher tax brackets.This process, known as "fiscal drag," is expected to generate a massive £42.9 billion by 2027 and will increase the number of higher-rate taxpayers from four million to over ten million. While this helps the government keep its election promises, economists worry it might discourage people from working harder or saving money.Targeted Wealth Measures and Expenditure CommitmentsBeyond these stealth measures, the budget is expected to target assets and property, which the government views as undertaxed. We may see higher taxes on profits from selling assets (Capital Gains Tax), stricter rules on inheritance and tax-free gifts, and higher taxes on expensive homes, potentially including a "mansion tax" for properties worth over £2 million.This extra money is needed to pay for expensive commitments, such as increasing the State Pension by over £550 a year and lifting the cap on benefits for larger families. To make the numbers work, the Chancellor may also introduce smaller charges, such as a tax per mile for electric vehicle drivers and reduced tax perks for high earners paying into pensions. zoom_out_map Created by Zain Vawda, Data from LSEG, ING Market Implications for the GBP and UK Gilts The value of the British Pound is currently being pulled in two directions. On one side, a solid government budget would boost trust and help the currency; on the other, if the Bank of England cuts interest rates quickly, the currency usually weakens.Right now, the Pound is trading around 1.31 against the US dollar because investors have already accounted for most of the uncertainty. If the Chancellor presents a strong and believable financial plan, the Pound could stabilize or rise slightly. However, if the plan is weak or hurts economic growth, investors might sell off the Pound. For the currency to truly gain value, the trust created by a good budget must be strong enough to overcome the natural dip caused by falling interest rates.GBP/USD Daily Chart, November 25, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Government Bonds (Gilts) and Political RiskThe market for UK government bonds, known as "Gilts," is in a risky position. Part of this is due to global trends, such as huge spending on AI and defense, which pushes long-term interest rates up worldwide.However, the biggest specific threat to the UK is domestic politics. If the current government looks unstable or weak in the polls, investors worry that a new leader might take over and start borrowing recklessly. Since the UK already plans to sell nearly £300 billion in bonds for the 2025-26 period, investors are nervous. If they feel the political situation is shaky, they will demand higher returns (yields) to lend their money, making it more expensive for the government to borrow.The Solution: A Strong Budget A strict and credible budget is the best way to calm the bond market. If the government proves it can manage its money well, the Bank of England will feel safe enough to cut interest rates faster and deeper. With inflation at 3.6% and the current interest rate at 4.00%, a tight budget helps the central bank lower borrowing costs for everyone.This strategy is expected to balance the economy: short-term rates will fall as the Bank of England eases its policies, while long-term rates will stabilize because investors will finally trust the government's financial plan.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.