Discover our Weekly Market Outlook, exploring themes and events that forged financial flows throughout the week.Large repricings changed the Market picture after the FOMC and major Central bank week.Get ready for next week's action by exploring upcoming events across global Markets.Week in review – A new Market order After all these talks throughout the beginning of the year about a New World Order, what fundamentally changed was the actual shift in Market pricing, which came progressively since the late January FOMC and kept looming over investors until this fateful week.This week marked a new turn in Central Banking, with not less than 8 rate decisions across Majors, including the Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Royal Bank of Australia, the People's Bank of China, the Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, the Swiss National Bank, and the European Central Bank.The verdict? Only one actual change: A rate hike for the RBA.But the true verdict was the swift repricing for hikes all around the globe, which brought headwinds to virtually all asset classes. Add to it longer expectations for the ongoing US-Iran-Israel War, and you get a spicy combo. Prediction-Markets War Ending Date – Source: Polymarket – March 20, 2026 Neither Stocks, Metals, nor Bonds eat spicy, so they all puked. Global assets were only temporarily rejoicing in more optimistic hopes for the War just yesterday (Thursday 19th), but that faded quickly with President Trump's latest plan to occupy Iran's Kharg Island to apply pressure on Iran to stop blocking the Strait of Hormuz.The idea shouldn't be too bad for Markets, but the issue here is that this would lengthen the Iran operations much longer. Strait of Hormuz Traffic – Source: Hormuz Strait Monitor – March 20, 2026 Traffic is barely picking up after 20 days of conflict, and many large importers like Japan, India, and South Korea (including many others) are facing heavy pressure. To learn more, I strongly invite you to check out this website – Some information is slightly outdated but explain the main factors affected by the de-facto closure with detail.The largest Market visualization for such is the widening spreads between WTI (North American) and Brent (London) Crude. WTI vs Brent Spread – Source: Barron – March 20, 2026 After the FOMC Meeting, which was neither hawkish nor dovish all things considered, Fed Members have started to reappear, and their outlook isn't so bright. Fed's Waller really took a turn from his previously softer communications, insisting on the potential de-anchoring of inflation expectations if Oil prices remain so high. And rightfully so, as they've remained surprisingly stable since the beginning of March.But Markets are ruthless, and with the turn in Central Bank communications, Gold, Bonds, and Stocks all took a significant hit. The two former got hit particularly hard, as the flight-to-safety not only failed to materialize but also backfired.Weekly Performance across Asset Classes Weekly Asset Performance – March 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Metals were once again battered by the recent repricing across Central banks, putting a swift end to their year-long honeymoons.This could actually be a good point to enter (slow and progressively) in case you missed the boat.Gold and Silver could still easily retrace to their August levels ($3,500 and $40) so keep some bullets in case. Discover:US Yields explode, dampening Investor sentiment – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookMetals dive lower from the global Hawkish repricings, Opportunity or Trap? – Silver (XAG/USD) and Gold (XAU/USD) OutlookUSD strength vs Euro vulnerability: What’s next for the EUR/USD pair?The Week Ahead – PMIs and Speeches Next week will be calmer in terms of pure Central Banking, but Traders will still have to be attentive to the many Governor and CB Presidents speaking throughout next week, to get a better idea of who really turned the page on rate cuts and who didn't.Asia Pacific Markets – Australian CPI After this week's heavy Central Bank week for APAC Markets, things should be getting somewhat calmer, or at least more focused.The pricing for the next Bank of Japan meeting is still uncertain, with a current 60% of hikes priced in – So traders will be paying close attention to the Japanese National CPI on Monday evening.But Australia (and the AUD) will be taking the focus yet again. The RBA just hiked again to 4.10% this week and Tuesday's CPI should bring further clarity on upcoming decisions.And don't forget RBNZ Governor Breman's speech on Monday.Europe and UK Markets – Heavier focus on Europe and the UK European Traders will await the streak of PMI releases on Tuesday, starting with France at 4:14 (ET), before Germany (4:30), The Eurozone (5:00) and the UK release at 5:30.PMIs have moved Markets to a lesser extent as of late, but a hunch tells me that Markets will react much more to Economic growth releases in coming weeks, as it will be the final gauges for hikes.The UK will come back at the center stage at on Wednesday with their CPI and PPI combo which will be definitely anchor (or delay) a potential BoE Rate Hike at the next meeting.Retail Sales on Friday could also help to cement the decision.For Euro traders, keep close attention to the thousands of speeches throughout next week.North American Markets – Lighter week, with only PMIs for the US The US will be back to the center stage, but without much to account for it.Only US PMIs on Tuesday morning will provide economic clues for rate expectations. And as mentioned before, Economic performance data should become important again.Of course, don't forget to check the classic Oil and US Dollar to help to find trades across Markets – Finally, pay close attention to Fed Speeches throughout next week to see where voters stand.Those include Fed's Barr, Miran, Jefferson, Paulson and Logan. Keep a close eye on geopolitical developments, particularly those involving the US-Iran war progess, as they are likely to continue influencing Commodity and broader Markets.Next Week's High Tier Economic Events For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only) March 20th Market Wrap Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today marked another large shift in Markets, maybe the largest since the beginning of the Week, as traders pulled the plug on any hopes of cuts.Metals, Bonds and Stocks got hurt the most, in order – But Cryptos are remaining quite resilient. I wouldn't be surprised to see them perform well next week.Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks are struggling once again after faking out higher yesterday, as post-FOMC Market flows extendWith the latest change in dynamics for US Treasuries, risk-assets dive lowerExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Today is providing yet another leg of renewed inflation fears, and this is not boding well for global assets.Yesterday's address by Israeli PM Netanyahu raised hopes for a shorter-than-expected conflict, leading to major dumping in the US Dollar and WTI Oil. Still, this narrative quickly took a significant U-turn. President Trump's latest pledge to militarily intervene in the Strait of Hormuz came with a surprise: a repricing of a now much longer US-Iran conflict to achieve more optimistic results.The new idea arises from the US Army's plan to capture Kharg Island, Iran's largest Energy production site, to pressure the IRGC into reopening the Strait of Hormuz.The issue, however, is the fact that this would require boots on the ground, and sources familiar with the issue pointed to at least a month extra of strikes to weaken the Islamic regime further.As Fed's Waller pointed out in a first post-FOMC interview, the issue is that a longer conflict poses the risk to disanchor inflation expectations, and this is what got the Rates Market to blow up this morning. Any hopes for rate cuts are now long gone. US yields are up significantly in this morning's action, implying higher inflation ahead and even potential rate hikes: The US 2-Year yield is now at 3.90% (while the current Fed Funds is at 3.75%). US 10Y Yield Monthly Chart. March 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView The issue here is that Stock Markets, particularly when the economy begins to decelerate, can be largely disrupted by higher yields and costs.But inflation may have to come first in the event of a longer conflict, to avoid not only job losses but also further erosion of the US Dollar's buying power. US Yield Curve Change since last Month – Source: TradingView Bond vigilantes, not liking the idea of a longer conflict, and selling Treasuries, indicate this discontent. The repricing to higher rates will weigh on risk assets for the time being.At least, the US Dollar used this to recover most of its past session's move – What a fakeout! US Dollar Index Daily Chart. March 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView With Oil prices and the US Dollar decoupling since the FOMC meeting, both will now need to be tracked individually to spot where the Market wants to go.The 4H 50-period MA on the Dollar Index will serve as a major indicator of upcoming action.Extending above it would hurt Sentiment even further. Rejecting it, however, may soothe the selloff in Stock Markets a bit more – But don't expect to see much clarity before the end of the weekend. Let's spot how this translates into Stock Markets by diving in today’s mid-session charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Metals dive lower from the global Hawkish repricings, Opportunity or Trap? – Silver (XAG/USD) and Gold (XAU/USD) OutlookChart alert: Watch 157.40 on USD/JPY, hawkish BoJ, ECB and BoE ignite yen strengthThe US Dollar dives after the FOMC, long-term reversal incoming? – Dollar Index (DXY) outlookCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:54 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – March 20, 2026 Once again, the Energy sector is the only survivor of this daily bloodshed, with Tech and Utilities being the largest victims of the explosion in Yields.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – March 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA is back at its previous session lows, right in the key 45,700 August 2025 Support.Bouncing from here will be mandatory to hope for a more concise rebound, because the 50,000 level now looks far gone.Today will probably not be the day to see a breakout either to the upside or downside, when considering the huge doji candle – As long as Yields remain higher, the downside does take the upper hand.For an upside breakout however, investors will want to see a break and 1H close above 46,012.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels46,012 Doji Highs (short-term bullish above)March 8 War lows Pivot 46,300Resistance 47,000 +/- 100 Points (Channel top)Pivotal Resistance 47,500 to 47,650Key Resistance at 48,00048,400 to 48,500 mini-resistanceSupport Levels45,700 to 45,900 August Support & Channel Lows) – Bearish belowAugust highs 45,71545,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – March 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is now breaking its solid range, particularly hurt by the higher yields – Bulls did make an attempt to return back around the 24,150 Support Zone, but bears are taking the upper hand.Except for much better sentiment after the weekend, expect to see a test of the 23,800 Support Zone.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels24,300 Session highs, range holds above (low odds)24,450 to 25,550 Range Pivot (short-term resistance)Mini-intraday Resistance 24,750Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (Range highs – Long-term Bullish above)Support LevelsFebruary Support 24,150 to 24,200 (Testing, bearish below)October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 1H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – March 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 broke its previous session's double bottom – But dip buyers have not said their last word.The outlook looks fragile, but rebounding here will be required for a return to 6,700, as the S&P 500 is now evolving within a Bear Channel.Look at today's highs (6,600) and lows (6,540) – Above will hold the bull channel, below will mark a further correction back towards 6,500.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsSession highs 6,600Momentum Pivot 6,6406,680 to 6,700 Mini-resistance6,740 Key intraday resistancePivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800Support LevelsSession lows (6,540)6,490 to 6,512 October lows Immediate Support6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and Keep track of WTI prices, Yields, and the US Dollar!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

ECB's hawkish tone and potential "April Hike" support the EuroGeopolitical conflict and spiking energy prices are the chief downside risk for the Eurozone.EUR/USD is split between technical recovery and fundamental risk, heavily tethered to Middle East headlinesMost Read: Metals dive lower from the global Hawkish repricings, Opportunity or Trap? – Silver (XAG/USD) and Gold (XAU/USD) OutlookEUR/USD finds itself at another crossroad after recent developments have seen the pair test a multi year pivot level of 1.1450. Since then EUR/USD has attempted to grind its way higher but further upside is facing a few hurdles.Let us unpack what may be key for the pair down below as markets grapple with a host of challenges.What is driving EUR/USD price action? Current Price Dynamics: The Post-ECB CorrectionIn recent sessions, EUR/USD surged to a weekly high of 1.1616. This advance was primarily triggered by the ECB’s decision to hold interest rates steady while simultaneously signaling heightened concern over inflation.Although the central bank maintained the deposit facility at 2.00%, President Christine Lagarde’s press conference struck a notably hawkish chord. She warned that rising energy prices spurred by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East involving the US, Israel, and Iran would likely push inflation above the 2% target in the near term.However, the Euro’s gains proved fragile. By Friday, the pair retraced toward 1.1560 as the US Dollar (USD) regained its footing. The Greenback’s resilience is being supported by a broader flight to safety as global markets grapple with "unabated geopolitical effervescence."While the Fed’s own hawkish stance previously dominated the narrative, the market is now focusing on the narrowing policy divergence between the Fed and other major central banks like the ECB and the Bank of England.Euro facing hurdles As conflict in the Middle East threatens oil and gas supplies, the Euro remains particularly vulnerable. Despite the ECB’s hawkishness, there is skepticism regarding whether higher Euro yields can sustain the currency's strength if energy prices continue to spike.A "conflict-related oil dynamic" remains the chief downside risk for the Euro, as higher energy costs act as a tax on the Eurozone’s growth-sensitive economy.Outlook: What to Watch Moving Forward The outlook for EUR/USD is currently split between technical recovery potential and fundamental downside risks.The "April Hike" Wildcard:The most significant bullish factor for the Euro is the emerging talk of an April rate hike. Reports suggest that ECB officials are considering an aggressive move should inflation overshoot targets significantlyIf geopolitical tensions stabilize over a weekend or if gas supply shocks are avoided, EUR/USD could quickly eye the 1.1700 level, backed by this hawkish pivot.Geopolitical De-escalation vs. Escalation:The pair’s direction is heavily tethered to headlines from the Middle East. Any sign of de-escalation would likely weaken the safe-haven demand for the USD and allow the Euro to capitalize on its improved yield outlook.Conversely, further military escalation would likely drive EUR/USD lower, regardless of ECB rhetoric, as investors seek the liquidity of the Greenback.Economic Indicators:In the coming week, traders should keep a close eye on Flash PMI data and inflation prints. These will be critical in determining whether the Eurozone economy is resilient enough to withstand higher rates or if the "stagflationary" shadow of high energy prices and weak growth will cap any further Euro upside. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis The EUR/USD H4 chart reflects a pair caught in a tug-of-war between a recent bullish recovery and long-term bearish structure.After bottoming near the 1.1420 mark, the pair staged a sharp rally back above a multi-year pivot level at 1.1450 and reclaiming the 50-period SMA (purple) at 1.1525.However, the upside momentum is currently stalling at the 1.1573 resistance level.Key Technical LevelsResistance: The immediate hurdle sits at 1.1573, closely followed by the 100-period SMA at 1.1593. A break above these could target the major descending trendline near 1.1650.Support: Sellers are currently pushing the price back toward the 50-SMA (1.1525). Below that, the 1.1482 level and the recent swing low and multi-year pivot at 1.1450 act as critical safety nets.IndicatorsThe RSI shows a "Pivot" high just below the 70 overbought threshold, suggesting that the recent impulse move is cooling off. With the price trading below both the 100 and 200 SMAs, the broader trend remains bearish. Traders should watch for a daily close above 1.1600 to confirm a structural shift, or a break below 1.1525 to signal a resumption of the downtrend.EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart, March 20, 2026 Source:TradingView.com Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Silver, Gold and the entire metals space have taken a beating since the FOMCThe recent Fed Meeting turned things around with global Hawkish repricingsDaily timeframe analysis for XAG/USD and XAU/USD The arrival of Spring brought a significant shift in market dynamics as the ongoing conflict affected Market flows. A series of Central Bank rate meetings has drastically changed the landscape. The US-Iran conflict has led to a rapid change in inflation expectations, primarily driven by increases in crude oil and related energy products. Asian and European countries are finding it difficult to meet their commodity demands due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Although the situation is gradually improving, uncertainty remains, and the concerns about inflation are very real. And Inflation is good for no one.What has particularly impacted the metals market are the indirect effects stemming from such change in inflation. Aside from a few exceptions, such as the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia, the consensus has been toward rate cuts and pauses. However, as inflation expectations rise, many Central Bank governors have begun to shift their stance towards hikes, which was highlighted in this week's press conferences.And this is definitely not helping the case for higher prices in Metals. Metals performance in 2026 – Source: TradingView, March 20, 2026. Metals have fallen victim to their own success. At the beginning of the war, investors rightly questioned why these precious safe havens had not returned to their previous highs. Historically, war creates strong demand for metals; they are not only needed for military equipment but are also sought after as a hedge against rising uncertainty in risk assets and general supply shocks. However, this time is different. Markets did not experience a flight-to-safety trend during the war, as military operations did not escalate to the extent that would require such a shift. Instead, the largest concerns quickly shifted to the militarized rise in petroleum prices. When market participants fail to see what they want to see, and the fundamentals shift unexpectedly, it can result in significant outflows from the metals asset class. The last session intensified the pre-FOMC decline in gold, silver, and other precious metals, alongside equities and bonds. The asset class now faces a potential major transformation compared to the strictly bullish trends seen at the end of 2024 and into 2025.With this morning's shy attempt of a rebound, let's explore this shift in a daily timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to identify if the previous session's drop provides an opportunity for late trend joiners, or a trap. Read More:Chart alert: Watch 157.40 on USD/JPY, hawkish BoJ, ECB and BoE ignite yen strengthAnother chaotic post-FOMC session – North American Session Market Wrap for March 19The US Dollar dives after the FOMC, long-term reversal incoming? – Dollar Index (DXY) outlookGold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart and levels Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, March 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Gold had warned traders of its War time inability to reach its prior highs, returning to "only" $5,400 before correcting. But looking back, Bullion had also just reacted to the high of its long-term channel, which created its initial $3,500 top in June 2025.Turning to today, the region to focus on is $4,400 to $4,500 Support Zone from February, serving as major barrier to further downside in the late January tumble.The tricky part is the fact that yesterday's end-session rebound attempt is seeing a major rejection as we speak, with a bearish daily candle forming – Hinting at a retest of the past day's $4,502 lows, Bulls will want to see a rebound here. Failing to rebound would point at least to $4,395 (February spike lows).Below will only find support around $4,100, then $3,500.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):Resistance Levels:February Wick Pivot $4,675$4,850 to $4,900 Key Support now Resistance$5,100 Pivotal ResistanceCurrent All-time Highs – $5,500 to $5,600Key Fibonacci Projection $5,800 to $5,900$5,400 mini-resistanceSupport Levels:Past session lows $4,500Pivotal Support $4,400 to $4,500 – Bullish above, Bearish belowFebruary lows $4,395Main Channel Lows Support $4,100$3,200 to $3,500 Major SupportSilver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart and levels Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart, March 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Silver took a significant turn lower since breaking its $84 Major War Pivot, now resistance.The price action has remained decisively bearish since falling below its 50-Day Moving Average, and failing to rebound from its past day spike, will now test its $64 February lows – The current bearish price action and RSI are not suggesting any rebound for now, but still, keep an eye on the key level.Any break of such would then point to $55 to $57 (200-Day MA) which could be a strong dip-buying entry for the metal.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):Resistance Levels:Key Momentum Pivot $74 to $77.50Major Resistance $84.50 (50-Day MA)Higher Timeframe and War Resistance $90 to $95Current Record $121.67Support Levels:December FOMC Minor Support $64 to $68 (testing)$64 February lows$55 to $57 October Resistance and 200-Day MASilver's 2011 All-time highs $49.81 Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar rallied consequently since the beginning of the US-Iran conflict, supported by the rise in Oil pricesNow reaching the top of its long-term range, a major reversal could be comingPost-FOMC Dollar Index technical analysis The World's reserve currency has proved once again why, when it all blows up, it all comes back to the Dollar.The USD serves as the denominator for global commodity trade, so when commodities suddenly appreciate, particularly Crude Oil, it tends to force large currency conversions towards it. Many economic actors rushed to hedge against the conflict by buying more expensive energy commodities, creating a dollar demand cascade. That's why it's common to see the term 'Petrodollar' in recent days.But this move could already be over as traders prepare for the second phase of the conflict, after three weeks of consistent gains.Note: A crazy selloff is currently ongoing in the Dollar as Israel's PM Netanyahu marks the advancement of the conflict, and Hawkish Central Banks lead to a large FX repricing.The FOMC brought quite a lot of change to markets: Jerome Powell pushed against further rate cuts, citing inflation still too elevated and supply shocks that hurt dovish prospects.But one thing that drove this move was the fact that he wasn't particularly supportive of rate hikes – which gave bears enough leeway to stop the rush into the Greenback.Don't forget to check out the details of the Fed Meeting right here. US Dollar and WTI Oil Correlation (breaking) – Source: TradingView Having now reached the top of its July 2025 range, the US Dollar could now be heading for a large correction. But the range highs aren't the only element marking the change in the recent flows.The US Dollar and Crude Oil correlation is not as solid as it used to be – so expect to see more of these changes as time goes on.As you can see on the correlation Chart above, since yesterday, WTI has remained sideways while the US Dollar tumbled – this is a significant change compared to the first half of the month.We’ll explore the current technical signs arising and more in an in-depth technical analysis of DXY. Discover:Wall Street gaps down, weak dip-buying attempts – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookCrude Oil Price Forecast: Analyzing the bullish $150 case and bearish $95 threatA look around Markets in a scary post-FOMC morning – Market OutlookDollar Index (DXY) Multi-Timeframe AnalysisDaily Chart Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart. March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView Traders who followed my Dollar Analysis since have seen extensively how significant the ongoing range is – No matter how bearish traders and newspapers got on the US Dollar, it refused to break its support.And now we are rejecting its highs. The ongoing move is spectacular, with an enormous reversal currently ongoing, forming a large bearish engulfing candle which should put back the Dollar into short-term bearish territory.The long-term range spans from ~96.00 to ~100.00As a reminder, the Dollar Index serves to get a better idea of what directions to look in other FX pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD and others – The rest is for you to find which pairs have the most interest for reversal.4H Chart and Technical Levels Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart. March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView The ongoing reversal in the US Dollar is significant! Watch out for reactions to the 99.00 level and January trendline.A rebound could go retest the 99.40 to 99.50 Pivot Zone. – Going short the US Dollar could be interesting in that event.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highs4H 50-period MA 99.5999.40 to 99.50 High Pivot (bearish below, watch for a retest)War Highs 100.544Support Levels98.70 to 99.00 Support (immediate test – Jan trendline 98.88 + bearish if breaks)98.00 Key Mid-Range Support, below hints at 97.00Support 97.40 to 97.602025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00Trump USD Flash Crash 95.551H Chart Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart. March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is now forming a tight bear channel – Reaching the 99.00 support, a small reversal wouldn't be surprising.Watch for entry points in other US Dollar FX pairs on pullbacks.Safe Trades and keep track of the Middle East conflict and WTI!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks gapped down severely after the FOMC meeting, dragged lower by rough Global Stock PerformanceTraders are now attempting a short-term dip-buying as Indexes reach key Support levelsExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 The past day's FOMC session wasn't easy on Investor sentiment, as a coordinated Oil–Petrodollar–hawkish–repricing attack played War on Stock bulls.The downtrend in Global Indexes is now more severe – the pricing out of Cuts, leaving the way open for hikes in Central Banks, was confirmed by the streak of hawkishness resounding in Rate Decision Press Conferences.The Swiss National Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, and European Central Bank confirmed once again that the rise in Energy commodities and supply shocks would bar the way for any soft prints in Prices, and that, without accounting for the direct effect of Oil price rises on goods, they have also raised concerns about economic growth. Global Central Banks are now back to hawkish.It's been difficult to justify buying Stocks in this environment – See how Global Stock Benchmarks have struggled. Global Stocks Performance. March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView One particular element that did not help risk sentiment was that Brent prices, which track more closely with ex-American energy prices, have largely decoupled from WTI – Brent spiked back to $116 per barrel overnight and holds right around $110, creating a new wave of anxiety around the globe.On the North American side, however, WTI Oil is holding below $100 per barrel, and this has been helping to contain the market open.What is sure at least, is that Metals haven't liked the new rise in Brent the slightest – Gold is down 3% from the previous session and now down 15% from its $5,400 War highs. Oil 1H Chart. March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView The previous session's news around attacks on Iranian and Qatari/Saudi energy infrastructures created the gigantic movement and divergence in commodities.As long as WTI doesn't form a definite break above $100 and holds above, the Outlook for US Equities should remain more rangebound. More details on our Index analyses below.Note: Ironically, as I am writing this piece, Oil is attempting a rebound towards $101 from the latest breaking news. Trump TACO'ed again; the US won't ban Crude exports in retaliation from the lack of Allies participation to liberate the Strait of Hormuz.This will weigh on Stocks particularly if the rally in WTI continues. Commodity and Global Index Performance – Courtesy of Finviz US indexes are trying their best to rebound on Support but they will need to form a more decisive rebound from current levels; Below them, there is space for much tougher downside.Let's spot where today's rough price action is heading by looking at today’s mid-session charts and post-FOMC trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:A look around Markets in a scary post-FOMC morning – Market OutlookBank of England leaves interest rates unchanged as war and rising energy prices complicate inflation fightMarkets Today: European Gas futures soar 25%, Brent hits $119/barrel. Central bank pressure heats up as ECB meeting loomsCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:50 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – March 19, 2026 Except for Energy Minerals and Industrial Services, the entire Market heatmap is getting sold off from the hawkish repricing and lower growth projections.Tesla is getting hit the hardest, along with Producer Manufacturing and Electronic Technology (was the Tech rebound a dead-cat bounce??)Dow Jones 1H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 1H Chart – March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA is now standing at a significant support at its August 2025 highs area and War Bear Channel lows.Rebounding here would point to a test of the 47,000 Resistance and Channel TopExtending the correction below 45,710 would lead to a Bear Channel break and further downside ahead.To get a better idea for the direction, check out the highs of the 1H Doji and lows of the Channel to play for breakouts.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels46,060 Doji Highs (intraday bullish above)March 8 War lows Pivot 46,300Resistance 47,000 +/- 100 Points (Channel top)Pivotal Resistance 47,500 to 47,650Key Resistance at 48,00048,400 to 48,500 mini-resistanceSupport Levels45,700 to 45,900 August Support & Channel Lows) – Bearish belowAugust highs 45,71545,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 1H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 1H Chart – March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is still holding its textbook 24,200 to 25,000 range in the latest action.Attempting a rebound from support, Bulls will face similar Doji tests as seen in the DJIA:Above the 1H Doji, the range will be confirmed to holdBelow the morning gap lows (24,150), expect further downside in the Index24,000 will first come as a test.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels1H Doji 24,390 (bullish above)24,450 to 25,550 Range Pivot (short-term resistance)Mini-intraday Resistance 24,750Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (Range highs – Long-term Bullish above)Support LevelsFebruary Support 24,150 to 24,200 (Range lows – Bearish below)October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 1H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 1H Chart – March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is now also facing a critical test ahead, having formed a double bottom right below 6,580.Rebounding here would be necessary to relaunch better hopes in US Stock MarketsBreaking the morning lows and double bottom however would open the door for a much larger correction!Check out the past hour 1H doji highs (6,620) for confirmation – If break, next intraday resistance would be found at 6,740.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMomentum Pivot 6,6406,680 to 6,700 Mini-resistance6,740 Key intraday resistancePivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800Support Levels6,570 to 6,600 Monday Key Double Bottom supportOvernight lows 6,5676,490 to 6,512 October lows Immediate Support6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and Keep track of WTI prices!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil prices surged due to an escalation of Middle Eastern hostilities, including Iranian threats to target oil installations in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar.The Strait of Hormuz is the center of market anxietyThe outlook is highly dependent on conflict escalation, with technical analysis suggesting a bullish case toward $120–$150 versus a bearish retreat below $95 if diplomatic efforts succeed.Most Read: Chart alert: Gold medium-term downtrend triggered as $4,960 support brokeOil prices surged in early trade today as Brent crude oil prices surged toward a high near the $114 per barrel mark.The rally, which saw Brent hit a high of $114 and WTI cross the $105 mark, was triggered by a dangerous escalation in Middle Eastern hostilities that now directly threatens the world’s most vital energy infrastructure.The Catalyst: Attacks on Energy Hearts The primary driver behind the price spike was a series of kinetic strikes on Iranian oil facilities and the subsequent expansion of the conflict. Reports confirmed Israeli airstrikes targeting Iran's South Pars gas field, but the US and Qatar were not involved, Trump said late Wednesday.In a retaliatory move that sent shockwaves through trading floors, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a formal warning that it would target oil installations in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar.Because these three nations represent approximately 20–25% of global crude exports, the threat transformed a regional conflict into a systemic risk for the global economy.Recent missile and drone attacks have caused major damage to energy facilities across several countries, some of the attacks are listed below:Qatar: Missiles hit the world’s largest LNG (natural gas) plants and a major Shell facility, stopping production and causing European gas prices to spike.Saudi Arabia: The military stopped several missiles and drones, but an aerial attack on a refinery in Yanbu briefly disrupted oil shipments.Kuwait: A drone strike started a fire at a refinery, though it was contained.For context, Iranian attacks have knocked out 17% of Qatar's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity, causing an estimated $20 billion in lost annual revenue and threatening supplies to Europe and Asia, QatarEnergy's CEO told Reuters on Thursday.QatarEnergy had declared force majeure on its entire output of LNG, after earlier attacks on its Ras Laffan production hub, which came under fire again on Wednesday.In response to the rising tension, the Trump administration is reportedly considering sending thousands more US troops to the region to support ongoing operations.The "Hormuz factor" and regional divergence At the center of the market's anxiety is the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 21 million barrels of oil and refined products pass through this narrow waterway daily. With Iran threatening a full blockade and shipping lanes becoming increasingly unsafe, a massive "risk premium" has been baked into every barrel.Think of it as a "regional divergence" at least that is how the shock is being felt. Asian markets including China, India, and Japan are at the epicenter of the crisis because they rely most heavily on Gulf barrels.While Western benchmarks like Brent and WTI rose sharply, the physical shortage is currently most acute in Asia due to shipping times. It takes roughly 10–15 days for Gulf oil to reach Asia, whereas rerouted cargoes heading to Europe or the US via the Cape of Good Hope can take up to 45 days.This "lagged transmission" suggests that while prices are already high, the full impact of the supply disruption has yet to reach the Atlantic basin and thus prices could potentially surge even more if the conflict continues to drag on.Economic Fallout: From Pumps to Portfolios The surge to $109 is already manifesting in "creeping price increases" for consumer goods. Transport operators and airlines have already warned of imminent fare hikes, while manufacturers brace for a "margin squeeze."If prices remain at these levels, the global economy faces a renewed inflationary wave that could force central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer, stifling growth just as many regions were eyeing a recovery.Outlook: Where to Next? The trajectory of oil prices now hinges on two critical variables: the duration of the disruption and the risk of further escalation.The Bullish Case ($120–$150): Technical analysis suggest that if Brent closes decisively above the $113.75 resistance level, the market could rapidly retest the 2022 peaks of $130, with a move toward $150 possible if the Strait of Hormuz is fully closed or if Saudi facilities sustain major damage.The Bearish Case (Below $95): Conversely, if diplomatic efforts which have so far failed suddenly gain traction, or if the US and its allies announce a massive coordinated release from Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR), prices could retreat. A fall below the $97.65 support level would be required to signal that the current "geopolitical fever" is breaking.Another area to keep an eye on is the US where in order to help lower global energy costs and increase the available supply, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Thursday that the government might lift sanctions on Iranian oil currently stuck on tankers.By releasing this "stranded" oil into the market, the administration hopes to provide much-needed relief to rising global prices.For now, the market remains in a state of "physical tightness." With inventory buffers in the West beginning to draw down and no end in sight to the regional war, the path of least resistance for oil prices appears to be higher. Investors and consumers alike should prepare for a volatile second quarter as the world navigates one of the most significant energy disruptions in recent history.Brent Crude Oil One-Hour Chart, March 2, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) The Brent Crude H1 chart shows a sharp rejection from the $114.00 level, followingtodays spike. The price has broken below the 20-period SMA (green line), signaling a loss of immediate upward momentum.Key Technical Observations:Resistance: The $114.00–$115.00 zone remains a major ceiling. A daily close above this level could open up a run toward the $120 mark and beyond.Support: Immediate support sits at $104.22 (50-day MA) which also just rests above the key swing high from Monday March 16 at 103.51, followed by the significant psychological level of $102.14 (100-day MA) before the psychological 100.00 mark comes back into play.RSI: The Relative Strength Index has dropped sharply from overbought territory to 49.37, suggesting the market is cooling off and entering a neutral phase where momentum maybe shifting in favor of bears.Outlook:The short-term trend is turning cautiously bearish. If the price fails to hold above $106.00, we could see a deeper retracement toward the $104.22 support level. However, given the geopolitical risks, any further supply shocks could quickly invalidate this technical pullback and push prices back toward $120.00.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Medium-term downtrend confirmed: Gold (XAU/USD) broke below the $4,960 key support (50-day MA) with a sharp sell-off, invalidating the prior rally as a “dead cat bounce” and signalling the start of a multi-week bearish phase.Hawkish Fed driving downside pressure: A less dovish Federal Reserve, reduced rate cut expectations, and rising 10-year US Treasury real yield have increased the opportunity cost of holding gold, weakening demand.Further downside risks ahead: With price action in a descending channel, gold remains bearish below $4,960 resistance, exposing next supports at $4,703–$4,554, unless a recovery above resistance negates the downtrend. The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have triggered a pivotal movement yesterday, staging a bearish breakdown below with a daily close below its 50-day moving average that is acting as a key medium-term support at $4,960 (-3.7% on Wednesday, 18 March 2026 with a daily close of $4,818).In terms of price structure, yesterday’s plunge suggests that the 23% rally from the 2 February 2026 low of $4,402 to the 2 March 2026 high of $5,420 is considered a corrective rebound, aka “dead cat bounce,” and the next movement is now skewed towards a potential multi-week bearish impulsive down move sequence.Let’s now discuss some key macro factors that are driving this current multi-week medium-term downtrend phase of Gold (XAU/USD).Less dovish Fed dot plot erases rate cut bets in 2026, stagflation risk reigns Fig. 1: Probabilities of Fed funds rate cuts, hikes, and pauses as of 19 Mar 2026 (Source: CME FedWatch tool) Fig. 2: US 10-YR Treasury real yield medium-term trend as of 19 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Yesterday, the Fed left its Fed funds rate on hold as expected at 3.50%-3.75%. and maintained its forecast of one interest rate cut in 2026, with an upgraded median core PCE inflation trend forecast to 2.7% for 2026 from the previous projection of 2.5% made in December 2025.Also, the most notable median projection shift was the long-run fed funds rate, up to 3.1% from 3.0%. In addition, the new 'dot plot' highlights a notable shift toward fewer projected rate cuts, and one policymaker is suggesting a rate hike next year in 2027; meanwhile, Governor Waller withdrew his dovish dissent for a cut yesterday. Hawkish vibes are brewing inside the Fed.Overall, the data compiled by the CME FedWatch tool has indicated that the Fed funds futures market has started to price in zero-interest rate cuts in 2026, down from as many as three cuts at the start of the year. The aggregated probability for the Fed funds rate to be at 3.25%-3.50% (a 25-bps cut from the current rate of 3.50%-3.75%) now stands at 44.8% for the last FOMC meeting in 2026 on 9 December (see Fig. 1).The 10-year US Treasury real yield jumped by 4 bps yesterday and closed above its 50-day moving average at 1.87%, now en route to potentially retest its medium-term range resistance of 1.98% (see Fig. 2).Gold (XAU/USD) has a significant direct correlation with the longer-term US Treasury yields, as the precious yellow metal is a non-interest income-bearing asset.A higher 10-year US Treasury real yield will imply a higher opportunity cost for owning and holding Gold (XAU/USD), in turn, creating a “lesser demand” sentiment that drives down prices of Gold (XAU/USD).Let us now dissect the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of Gold (XAU/USD) from a technical analysis perspective.Gold (XAU/USD) – Another downleg in progress below $4,960 Fig. 3: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 19 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 4: Gold (XAU/USD) medium-term trend as of 19 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the $4,960 key short-term pivotal resistance (also the 50-day moving average) to maintain the current bearish impulsive down move sequence for the next intermediate supports to come in at $4,703/4,655 and $4,587/4,554 (Fibonacci extension and lower boundary of minor descending channel from 2 March 2026 high) (see Fig. 3).On the other hand, a clearance and an hourly close above $4,960 invalidates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest the next intermediate resistances at $5,040 and $5,125 (also the 20-day moving average).Key elements to support the bearish bias on Gold (XAU/USD) The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have started to oscillate within a minor descending channel since the 2 March 2026 high of $5,420 (see Fig. 3).Before Gold (XAU/USD)’s bearish breakdown of its 50-day moving average yesterday, its daily RSI momentum indicator flashed on a bearish breakdown condition below its key ascending trendline support at the 50 level earlier on Monday, 16 March 2026 (see Fig. 4). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 18 Today welcomed a much-anticipated FOMC session, and Participants probably did not hear what they wanted to hear.After an already quite intense morning, in which assets were going back and forth to fight another rise in Energy Commodities, the Press Conference pinned down risk sentiment.The initial catalyst for the rise in Commodities was the new escalation of attacks on Energy infrastructure in the Middle East.WTI Oil quickly bounced from $92 to $99, invalidating the Head and Shoulders and forming what resembles the basis of a range, but Brent is where the action gets scary.The London-Exchange Petroleum quote saw a significant bounce, now consistently above $105, as President Trump threatened to stop defending the Strait of Hormuz to drag Allies into defending the most important 10 km stretch in the world.Crude initially eased ahead of the FOMC press conference but found what it needed to keep rebounding as Iran retaliated for the overnight attacks on its gas infrastructure.Oil is currently squeezing at the close, so expect the path ahead to be rocky.Regarding the Federal Reserve, they decided to maintain their rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, unchanged for the third consecutive meeting.The initial text wasn't decisively hawkish, but looking at the high expectations for better news, Markets were disappointed.As Powell's penultimate Press Conference was unfolding, the US dollar saw another meaningful bounce. This further pressured an already rough trading session, particularly against Stocks and Metals.In his remarks, the Fed Chair emphasized the inflationary pressures and supply shocks from the post-COVID era, which are not pointing to any dovish direction, and that helped the USD rally. Still, the speech itself wasn't so hawkish either, just because he didn't lean into hikes after a couple of questions asking whether such were on the table. It seems that traders will now only be looking at Oil and how it will increase inflation prospects. Read More:FOMC pauses rates yet again, Dollar explodes – Economic Projections and (Updated) Market ReactionsDow Jones back below 47,000 as traders prepare for high-impact FOMC – US Stock Market Outlook & LevelsMorning Market Check – Energy infrastructures attacked in Iran, Bank of Canada holds rates, & US PPIGold (XAU/USD) price slides 3.3%. Is Gold offering a discount or facing freefall heading into FOMC?Stock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 18, 2026 The Stock Market wasn't off to a great start in this morning's action, but things got worse as the Press Conference and rises in Crude further dampened risk-appetite.A few individual names in Producer Manufacturing, Energy and Tech have arisen, but the overall wave is red.The Dow Jones once again led to the downside, and the technicals aren't looking so optimistic – Tomorrow will be a very important test for bulls.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today's session was not friend to asset managers, particularly those hoping for drops in Oil and the US Dollar.Energy commodities have exploded, particularly after their overnight slump, after the latest escalation news – The Petrodollar naturally raced higher, a process also magnified by a Flattening rate curve and a far from dovish Press Conference.Leading to the downside are Metals and Cryptos, but Stocks did not fare much better.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 18, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs FX performance today was centered around the two Central banks giving their rate decisions, with the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve meeting hawkish pauses helping the prospects for their respective currencies.But the rise in Oil also had its role to play.On the other side of the performance spectrum, European currencies (particularly the CHF) and Antipodeans. These ones don't tend to enjoy bullish Crude sessions.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. It's not because today's session was so busy that traders can suddenly relax.Quite the contrary actually, and there will be some for everybody!Not even counting the rise in Oil, expect movement for the Kiwi (NZ GDP), the AUD (Australian Employment), the Yen (with a very important Bank of Japan Rate Decision, tonight between 19:30 and 20:00). Check out our preview for the event right here.There will also be a flurry of other Central Bank decisions, including the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, and the ECB – All will be important to track to see how they preview upcoming inflation risks regarding to the Iran developments.Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Fed is keeping rates unchanged at the 3.50% to 3.75% range – The stance was surprisingly not so hawkish!The votes for the pause are at 11-1 – Only Miran dissented.The rougher part for Markets is the fact that rates are not priced to move much throughout the year.You can get access to the detailed report and Fed Statement right here.The Statement made mentions to uncertainty regarding the situation in the Middle East, a solid US economy and low Job gains but stable Unemployment rate.Regarding inflation, the Fed's stance wasn't so hawkish compared to what it could have been. Notable quotes from the Statement – Source: Federal Reserve Dot Plot March Meeting Projections– Source: Federal Reserve The Fed projected a slightly more elevated inflation in 2026, with the War affecting expectations.For the rest, the FOMC is not expecting much change in the Unemployment Rate – This opens the way for dovish repricing in the event of large misses in NFP.Get access to the full SEP report here. March Meeting Dot Plot – Source: Federal Reserve The Dot Plot has largely restrained around the 3.5% to 4% range for 2026, indicating that Rate cuts are really far gone.Only material changes to Employment or economic performance will bring changes to such pricing. Current Press Conference Asset Board (15:08) – Courtesy of Finviz WTI and Brent particularly is rebounding from the latest announcement that Trump would most likely stop defending the Strait of Hormuz to force Allies to intervene.Stock Markets are now getting hit by another wave of Dollar + Oil explosion, an explosive cocktail.Fed's Powell just ended his conference – You can access his speech right here.The Fed Chair has been relatively neutral but maybe too neutral for those expecting better news regarding Cuts – No indication of cuts, participants could be soothed by the fact that he didn't mention hikes.The overall reaction is for now hawkish. The Curve is flattening.Market ReactionsDollar is now exploding higher (15:13) US Dollar (DXY) 15M Chart – Source: TradingView – March 18, 2026 The US Dollar is now rising from the confirmed assumption that Fed Rate cuts are now fading away – Also coinciding with another rise in Oil, other assets are taking a hit.Watch whether the rally extends and closes above 100.00 for the Dollar Index.US Stocks struggled, staying flat Dow Jones (CFD) 15m Chart (15:18) – Source: TradingView Gold is now below $5,000 Gold (CFD) 15m Chart (15:23) – Source: TradingView Other metals are also struggling Metals performance (15:24) – Courtesy of Finviz Bitcoin and Cryptos are struggling Bitcoin(CFD) 1H Chart (15:26) – Source: TradingView Keep a close eye on post-speech flows which can be quite sudden – This session's close in Stock Market will be of huge importance.Safe Trades and Good luck for Powell!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks struggle yet again, suffering from another rise in WTIThe Middle East conflict is escalating and risk-sentiment backs down ahead of a quintessential FOMC meetingExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Yesterday's Stock-Crude de-correlation was short-lived, as today quickly came with another (bad) surprise.Participants who were late to exit their positions ahead of this afternoon's key FOMC event woke up to a Stock Market bleeding once again from the escalations in the Middle East conflict. Oil and Dow Jones Negative Correlation. March 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView Yesterday saw the celebrations of not only St Patrick's Day, but also the celebrations for the Iranian New Year (Nowruz) – While Iranian people celebrated, the IRGC multiplied attacks on their populations, and the rest of the Middle East.With a large attack of cluster-warhead ballistic missiles of Israel on civilian targets and similarly on Gulf countries, the IAF and US army retaliated on Iran's largest Natural Gas production site – The South Pars Gas Facility, very close to Qatar (which supplies close to 80% of Iran's Nat Gas demand).Energy commodities have hence rebounded from a previous correction – WTI is back closer to $100 from $92 overnight, and this isn't helping risk-taking the slightest. Oil 1H Chart. March 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView With escalation risks now repriced, traders will have to watch whether Oil breaks $100 closely – the action is stalling around $98 and $99 for now.A slow rise above would be trouble for Wall Street, as seen already in this morning's Stock Market drop – the Dow is leading to the downside (~ -1%) but other Indexes and assets aren't faring much better. Daily Asset Performance – Courtesy of Finviz The FOMC meeting will prove to be very essential for upcoming inflation and rate expectations and SEP Projections. Communications, particularly during Powell's Press Conference will have to be tracked very closely.If you haven't done so yet, go check out our FOMC preview!Let's spot where today's rough price action is heading by looking at today’s mid-session charts and key FOMC trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Morning Market Check – Energy infrastructures attacked in Iran, Bank of Canada holds rates, & US PPITechnical levels for major FX pairs ahead of the FOMCGold (XAU/USD) price slides 3.3%. Is Gold offering a discount or facing freefall heading into FOMC?Current Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (12:00 P.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – March 18, 2026 Healthcare, Non-Durables and Retail Trade are leading a red-session to the downside, as Investors rush to close positions ahead of this afternoon's high risk-event.When Oil rises, Tech electronics and services are surprisingly holding strong – keep track of this development as the conflict continues.Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – March 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA is holding its descending channel to the T, rejecting it and heading back towards its War lows (around 46,270). It is the Index to watch for overall sentiment.Today's FOMC event will be very key, particularly when looking at where we stand:If bulls reject the War lows, it will be a good sign for dip-buyingIf not, it's going to be more painful for Stocks aheadWatch the session close and tomorrow's open!Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsKey Pivot 47,000 to 47,200 (channel highs, bullish above)Pivotal Resistance 47,500 to 47,650Key Resistance at 48,00048,400 to 48,500 mini-resistanceSupport LevelsCurrent War lows Mini-Support 46,300 (Bearish Below)46,000 +/- 100 pts November SupportAugust highs 45,71545,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – March 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq remains well within its 24,200 to 25,000 range, rejecting the psychological level in this morning's action.Remaining below 25,000 after today could drag profit taking even further.While it remains resilient in comparison to its peers, the Tech Index will be very sensitive to any wide move in the DJIA and Oil – Keep track of sentiment at today's close.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels2H 200-period MA (24,820)Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (mini range highs – Bullish above)25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistancePivotal resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (all-time highs if break)Support LevelsFebruary Support 24,200 (Range lows – Bearish below)24,400 to 25,600 Key SupportOctober and Overnight lows 23,972October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – March 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is also tightening its volatility after Monday's double bottom – But the action is still far from bullish.The level to watch is 6,700 – Closing above it would be optimistic for Risk-sentiment.On the contrary, closing below could bring further selling. The post-FOMC close will be very important.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,700 Key Level (bull above, bear below)Pivot 6,730 to 6,750Pivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800Past Week Resistance 6,820 to 6,840Support Levels6,680 to 6,700 Key Support (testing)Overnight lows 6,6066,490 to 6,512 October lows Immediate Support6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and Good luck for the FOMC!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Welcome to a more unusual Market update to show what could be a significant development for Markets for periods ahead.WTI Crude Oil is forming a Head & Shoulders ahead of the FOMC meeting, a first bearish pattern since the beginning of the War. WTI Oil 2H Chart. March 17, 2026 – Source: TradingView It sure is a risky, counter-trend, and counter-Market view, but here are the elements that could point towards the end of a WTI Rally.First and foremost, advancements in the War:Most of the key figures of the Iranian Islamic Regime have been eliminated throughout the first three weeks of the conflict, leaving a snake without its head for the authoritarian regime.Overnight, Ari Larijani, the right-hand of the Ayatollah, along with Basij Forces Commander Soleimani, was eliminated in strikes.These two figures were exercising heavy influence over the IRGC army for the former and the Political police for the latter.This could prove to be a turning point in the ongoing US-Iran-Israel War.The two-country coalition is now expressing more concrete plans to move further towards the securitization of the Strait of Hormuz.If even Al Jazeera is saying that the US-Israel operation is working, the War could really avoid dragging out for long – this fundamental turn should ease pressure on the Crude Market.While supply issues remain, particularly for Asian nations, less uncertainty often translates to easier Market conditions ahead.Oil won't just flash back to the $55 lows from the beginning of the year, but less pressure on the head will help soothe Participants and inflation expectations. Second, technical elements:WTI Oil gapped higher to $101.30 at the weekly Open, which could have added further momentum to an already tense Market.But the selling seen in the previous session formed a Head & Shoulders pattern. It is a strong sign of trend exhaustion, as bulls attempted to break previous highs but failed twice, also forming a lower high at the same time (overnight spike to $99).The measured move target would hint at $85 oil in the short run. More advancements to the conflict would be required to sustain a more persistent correction in the commodity.The pattern is invalidated if bulls close above $99.04 (overnight highs).Keep a close eye on the 2H 50-period MA ($95.19), which is acting as short-term support. Breaking it could trigger the selloff.Technical Levels for WTI Resistance Levels99.04 Overnight highs (H&S Void above)$98 to $100 Resistance$106 to $108 June 2022 ResistanceWar highs $116 to $120Support LevelsImmediate Support 2H 50-MA $95.17 (bearish below)H&S Neckline $92.64$85 Head & Shoulders Target2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80$69 to $70 Main Support2025 lows $55.00Stock Markets are sending Mixed signs Current picture for the Stock Market (12:03 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – March 17, 2026 The Stock Market is all over the place today.After the overnight failed spike in Oil, Stock Indexes opened well but have failed to sustain momentum and are now correcting again.Participants will be awaiting further clarity from tomorrow's Fed Meeting – The Summary of Economic Projections will be released, providing at least more clarity on what to expect from the Fed in 2026.An FX and Fundamental preview for the event will be landing this afternoon.Markets will be all eyes and ears to listen to what Jerome Powell has to say during one of his final press conferences tomorrow at 14:30.Dow Jones 1H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 1H Chart – March 17, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones rejected the upper bound of its descending channel, opening the way for a more mixed price action ahead – 47,000 is the level to watch for the FOMC (Bullish if close above, bearish if close below).Expect slow trading all the way towards tomorrow's 14:00 Decision.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsMorning highs 47,429Pivotal Resistance 47,400 to 47,600Key Resistance at 48,000 (bull above)48,400 to 48,500 mini-resistanceSupport LevelsKey Pivot 47,000Current War lows Mini-Support 46,300 and past day Double Bottom (bearish below)46,000 +/- 100 pts November SupportAugust highs 45,71545,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Safe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a "hawkish hold."The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) is anticipated to show higher inflation forecasts and a risk that the one expected 2026 rate cut could be pushed into 2027.Market implications include an extended rally for the US Dollar Index (DXY) and a "risk triangle" for the Dow Jones Industrial Average due to elevated yields, margin squeeze from oil prices, and geopolitical uncertainty.Read More: Pre-FOMC Metals review: Platinum (XPT/USD) outperforms its peers, Copper (XCU/USD) strugglesAs the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) prepares to convene on March 18, 2026, the economic landscape has shifted from "normalization" to a complex "wait-and-see" puzzle.Chair Jerome Powell now faces a dual-mandate nightmare: a cooling labor market clashing with a renewed energy-driven inflation shock after the conflict in the Middle East.The Decision: Inflation vs labor market Market consensus is overwhelmingly aligned: the Federal Reserve is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at its current level. While the Fed entered 2026 with a dovish tilt, the escalating conflict in the Middle East has sent oil prices surging, complicating the path toward the 2% inflation target. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Recent data has been contradictory. A "train wreck" of a February jobs report, which saw payrolls fall by roughly 92,000 and unemployment climb to 4.4%, suggests the economy needs support.However, with PCE inflation stuck near 3% and energy costs rising, the Fed cannot risk a premature cut that might unanchor inflation expectations.The persistence of inflation is being driven by more than just energy. Food prices are expected to jump due to a surge in fertilizer costs related to the Middle East conflict, and manufactured goods are seeing "downstream" price increases.Furthermore, inflation expectations, which had previously been well-anchored, have shown signs of an "uptick," providing the committee with a primary justification for pushing out rate cut expectations until 2027.The Dot Plot: Shifting projections The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will be the focal point for investors. While the December "dots" hinted at one rate cut in 2026, there is a distinct risk that this could be pushed into 2027.Analysts suggest a "stagflationary" shift in the SEP:GDP: Likely revised marginally lower for 2026 following a weak Q4 2025.Inflation: Projections for 2026 and 2027 are expected to edge higher to reflect higher energy costs and stickier core components.Rate Path: The median dot may remain unchanged for now, but the "balance of risks" is tilting hawkish. The Fed may signal that while two cuts (potentially June and September) remain on the table, they are increasingly data-dependent.The impact of Powell’s potential departure The question around the Fed Chair position remains an intriguing one. Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated through his attorneys that he feels bound to remain on the Board of Governors for the duration of the investigation to defend the Fed’s independence.Traditionally, Fed chairs resign from the board once their term as chair expires, but Powell’s decision to stay could prevent President Trump from "packing" the board with more dovish governors. This leadership vacuum creates a "lame duck" period where the market is uncertain about who will be setting interest rates by the summer of 2026.The political pressure on the Fed is also mounting. President Donald Trump has publicly criticized Chair Powell and called for an emergency meeting to slash rates.This external pressure, combined with the legal challenges facing the chair, threatens to undermine the market’s perception of the Federal Reserve as an independent, data-driven institution.For professional investors, this means that every policy decision must now be weighed against the potential for political interference or leadership turnover.Market Implications – US dollar index The US Dollar Index (DXY) has found renewed support in recent weeks, and a "hawkish hold" from the Fed could extend this rally. The "safe-haven" appeal of the Dollar is being bolstered by Middle East tensions, while tighter financial conditions are acting as a shield for American consumers against rising oil prices.Furthermore, a policy divergence is emerging. While markets are flirting with the idea of rate hikes from the ECB and BoE to combat energy-driven inflation, the Fed’s ability to remain "higher for longer" compared to its peers should maintain the Dollar’s yield advantage.If Powell emphasizes the need to keep rates restrictive until the energy supply uncertainty persists, the DXY could break toward the 106.00 level.US Dollar Index (DXY) Chart, March 17, 2026 Source: TradingView.Com (click image to enlarge). Implications for the Dow JonesFor the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the March meeting presents a "risk triangle" involving yields, oil prices, and geopolitical headlines.Growth Concerns: Lower GDP revisions and a softening labor market are headwinds for industrial and consumer discretionary stocks.Margin Squeeze: Rising energy costs increase input prices for major Dow components, potentially squeezing corporate earnings.Interest Rates: If the SEP removes the prospect of near-term easing, the "higher-for-longer" narrative could trigger a pullback in equities as discount rates remain elevated.Historically, the Dow dislikes uncertainty. A clear signal that the Fed is "holding steady" rather than reacting aggressively to the oil spike might provide a relief rally, but any hint of a potential rate hike—a tail risk mentioned by some hawkish governors would likely trigger a sharp sell-off.The "Governance Discount": Market participants are becoming worried about political friction in Washington. Specifically, public disagreements between the White House and the Federal Reserve make people feel the central bank might lose its independence. This makes the dollar seem like a riskier place to keep money.Dow Jones Daily Chart, March 17, 2025 Source: TradingView.Com (click image to enlarge). Outlook: Powell’s Toughest Balancing Act Chair Powell’s press conference will likely emphasize that the Fed is "not under pressure to make quick changes." By acknowledging the two-sided risks of the energy shock, inflationary on one hand, growth-dampening on the other, the Fed will seek to maintain a neutral stance.For market participants, the takeaway is clear: the era of predictable, synchronized rate cuts has ended. The March 18 meeting will likely confirm that while the Fed's bias remains toward eventual easing, the "geopolitical tax" of the Iran conflict has significantly raised the bar for the next move.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Today marks the first time a rebound in WTI has not correlated with wide selloffs in Global Markets. Before today, even a slight bounce in the Energy commodity would drag Stocks and Bonds, and, more particularly, the subjects of today's check-up, metals.As we covered yesterday, Silver and Gold escaped some bearish technical developments as the Sunday Globex open brought heavy selling flows – sustaining their respective $80 and $5,000 thresholds. Traders will have to be more patient to spot which side the breakout will take. Don't hesitate to check out the piece to learn more!Tomorrow's Fed Meeting will provide some quintessential clarity to the inflation situation: As a quarterly meeting, the Fed will provide the Summary of Economic Projections, which projects expected activity (GDP) and inflation; two of the most heavily influenced data points by recent Middle East developments – particularly with rises in Oil, Which Are largely pricing out upcoming Rate Cuts.We will explore potential Fed argument points throughout an afternoon US Dollar review.As we enter the final stretch ahead of the key event, it is not surprising to see global assets losing some of their traditional correlations as Participants move to unwind positions to shed risk, particularly ahead of a highly unpredictable meeting.What is certain is that the conflict changed the picture quite a lot; one way to prepare for the coming days is to see where Assets were trading before the War to get a better idea of what could happen if things actually improve.Metals have had dynamics of their own, initially rallying, then selling off, just to establish confusing ranges, and only Platinum has managed to withstand the general pressure from the rise in the Petrodollar. Metal Performance since end February (March 17) – Source: TradingView. Is it time for the White metal to catch up to Gold?It would be a long stretch, but what is surprising is that Platinum is hovering well around $2,000, close to the pre-breakout level for Gold.Copper, which has been held up by AI and Grid investments, has, also broadly resisted to the pressure on the Metals Market, but is showing some cracks. Is the long copper trade compromised?Let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis (Weekly and Intraday) of Copper and Platinum to see if there are any technical clues in Alternative Metals, as Silver and Gold seem to be finding little direction. Discover:Metals fake-out to the downside; Opportunity? – Gold (XAU/USD) & Silver (XAG/USD) updateMarkets Today: RBA hike rates, European shares eye lower open, ZEW sentiment, ADP employment data up nextChart alert: Hawkish RBA provides support for AUD/USD, bulls need to break back above 0.7140Copper (XCU/USD) Weekly Chart Copper (XCU/USD) Weekly Chart. March 17, 2026 – Source: TradingView Copper hasn't been able to generate further traction from its early year breakout attempt, and has been stuck in a $5.50 to $6.00 range throughout the past month.A key technical element to keep your eyes on is the 20-Week Moving Average, currently at $5.56 and acting as a Major Pivot for upcoming action.Having just caught up to the action, Bulls will want to see a bounce from here back above $6.00Failing to hold the MA could hint at a break towards the $5.00 to $5.10 major support – Short-term charts are inclining for a bearish tilt.A more bearish economic outlook for the future could have further bearish effect, but this will be contingent on upcoming data – the SEPs may have an effect on this one.If a correction extends, look at the Monthly Channel lows at $4.50 which would be a great long-term point of entry.Copper (XCU/USD) Daily Chart and Technical Levels Copper (XCU/USD) Daily Chart. March 17, 2026 – Source: TradingView Copper is now forming a more bearish outlook on the short-run.Having crossed back below its 50-Day MA ($5.83) for the first time since its September 2025 rally, sellers are looking to take control.A Head and Shoulders pattern would point to a test of the $5.18 200-period MA, but could also extend to the 50-Week MA – Watch the short-term bear channel.To confirm, check out if sellers manage to push below the $5.50 Key psychological level.Levels to watch for Copper (XCU/USD) trading:Resistance Levels:Pivotal Zone $5.70 to $5.90 (50-Day MA $5.83)$6.00 to $6.10 Early Jan 2026 RecordCurrent ATH Resistance $6.40 to $6.50Potential Resistance 2 $6.90 to $7.00Support Levels:$5.56 20-Week MA (Pivotal Support)Support at March 2025 Highs $5.40 to $5.50$5.10 50-Week MAMajor Monthly Support between $4.90 to $5.00$4.50 Main Channel LowsPlatinum (XPT/USD) Weekly Chart Platinum (XPT/USD) Weekly Chart. March 17, 2026 – Source: TradingView After the end-2025 to Beginning 2026 chaotic explosions, the long-term charts are quite confusing. But when there is confusion, the best thing to do is to look where it is clear.The 20-Week Moving Average ($2,030) acted as Support throughout this week's bounce in Platinum – Keep a close eye on it to see if it remains a positive Technical Indicator or a negative one for the downside break.What tilts the scale for a more bullish action in XPT/USD, is the fact that its weekly RSI is now bouncing from neutral, a sign of bear exhaustion.Platinum (XPT/USD) 4H Chart and Technical Levels Platinum (XPT/USD) 4H Chart. March 17, 2026 – Source: TradingView Sellers in Platinum have failed to push for a meaningful break of the $2,000, however, it remains a key level for upcoming action.Above, expect more bullish action. Below, the scale tilts to the bearish side.The 4H 50 and 200-period MAs are acting as short-term resistance – Breaking above would hint at further bullish action for the White Metal. $2,300 would be the next step.The FOMC will clear the path for what comes next. Platinum Technical Levels to keep on your charts:Resistance levels$2,130 4H 50 and 200-MAsMay 2008 Momentum Pivot $2,100 to $2,200 (Bull Above)2008 mini-Resistance $2,300December 2025 Peak $2,500Current All-Time Highs $2,800 to $2,880Support levels$2,000 Major Psychological Level (Bearish below)War Support & 2011 Highs $1910 to $1,950February Lows & 2013 highs $1,730 to $1,780$1,500 Major SupportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asian stocks surged, led by South Korean chipmakers Samsung and SK Hynix, on optimism regarding AI chip manufacturing partnerships.The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1% in a split vote due to renewed inflationary pressures and labor market tightness.European shares are headed for a lower open.Later today, ZEW sentiment and ADP employment change data will be the focus.Most Read: Metals fake-out to the downside; Opportunity? – Gold (XAU/USD) & Silver (XAG/USD) updateAsian stocks maintained their upward momentum on Tuesday, marking a second consecutive day of gains as investors navigated a complex landscape of geopolitical tension and central bank activity.Despite the underlying market anxiety regarding the economic fallout from the conflict between the US and Iran, regional indices showed notable resilience. The rally was particularly strong in South Korea, where the Kospi surged nearly 3% and the Kosdaq climbed over 1.5%. The surge in South Korean markets was largely fueled by a powerful rally in the semiconductor sector, led by a 5% jump in Samsung Electronics and a 3.7% gain for rival SK Hynix.This momentum followed comments from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who confirmed that Samsung is manufacturing the company's newest AI chips.This high-profile partnership has sparked optimism among analysts, with many now predicting that Samsung's previously loss-making foundry division could pivot back to profitability as early as next year.This AI-driven enthusiasm extended across the region, boosting other tech-heavy markets that stand to benefit from the global chip boom. Taiwan's benchmark index rose as much as 2%, reflecting its critical role in the AI supply chain. Together, these gains provided a significant lift to the broader region, driving the MSCI EM Asia index up approximately 1.9% during Tuesday's session.Japan also saw healthy gains, with the Topix rising more than 1% and the Nikkei 225 advancing 0.75%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 posted a more modest increase of approximately 0.27%.RBA hike rates as expected In a move that aligned with market forecasts, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) increased its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1% during its March 2026 meeting.This decision, which followed a previous hike in February, was reached via a split vote and was primarily motivated by a suite of data indicating renewed inflationary pressures throughout the latter half of 2025.While the Board views some of this recent uptick as temporary, they highlighted a tightening labor market and more significant capacity constraints than were previously estimated.The central bank remains cautious as the ongoing Middle East conflict introduces heightened uncertainty, potentially exacerbating inflation risks both domestically and abroad. With the RBA anticipating that inflation will stay above its target range for the foreseeable future, and with risks currently skewed to the upside, policymakers determined that this latest increase was necessary to anchor expectations.Moving forward, the Board will maintain a flexible, data-dependent stance, closely monitoring global financial conditions, domestic demand, and labor trends to balance their dual mandate of price stability and full employment.European shares head for lower open European equity markets are braced for a negative open this Tuesday, with Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 futures both sliding approximately 0.4% in premarket trading.This cautious sentiment is largely driven by a rebound in oil prices, sparked by intensifying Iranian attacks on regional energy infrastructure. Investor anxiety has been further compounded by the fact that most nations have yet to back US President Donald Trump’s request for military support to secure commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the vital waterway vulnerable.As the session unfolds, market participants will pivot to key economic indicators and corporate results to gauge the region's health.On the corporate front, the luxury and biotech sectors will be in focus as Salvatore Ferragamo and Autolus Therapeutics are scheduled to release their latest earnings reports.How did FX markets react? The US dollar strengthened on Tuesday as escalating conflict in the Middle East drove investors toward safe-haven assets, dampening global risk appetite.The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.19% to 100.05, marking a total gain of approximately 2.5% since the outbreak of hostilities in late February.This surge weighed heavily on European currencies, with the euro weakening to $1.1479 nearing a seven-month low and sterling retreating 0.3% to $1.3279.Meanwhile, the Australian dollar experienced volatile trading as markets processed hawkish signals from the RBA chief following their narrow vote to hike rates.In Asia, the Japanese yen continued its descent, weakening to 159.40 per dollar and approaching the critical 160 threshold. Despite verbal warnings from Japanese authorities, analysts suggest the threshold for physical currency intervention may be higher than usual due to the inflationary pressure of rising oil prices. Though the yen has shed over 2% against the greenback in March, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that underlying inflation is trending toward the 2% target.Nevertheless, the central bank is widely expected to maintain steady rates at the conclusion of its policy meeting this Thursday.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Commodities & Energy Energy and precious metals markets saw a significant recovery on Tuesday as supply concerns and geopolitical risks took center stage.Oil prices surged over 2%, clawing back losses from the previous session. This rally was fueled by intensifying worries over the Strait of Hormuz, which remains largely closed, and reports that US allies are hesitating to deploy warships to escort tankers through the volatile waterway.By early morning, Brent futures jumped 2.7% to $102.95 per barrel, while WTI crude climbed 2.6% to $95.95, a sharp reversal from Monday's slump when brief signs of vessel movement had initially cooled prices.In the metals market, gold prices firmed as investors balanced the ongoing Middle East conflict against a heavy week of central bank policy decisions.Spot gold rose 0.4% to trade above the $5,000 mark, specifically reaching $5,023.19 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures for April delivery saw a similar 0.5% gain.This upward trend extended across the sector: silver edged up 0.6% to $81.28, palladium rose 1.4%, and platinum led the group with a robust 2.2% increase to $2,161.35 per ounce.Read More:Chart alert: Hawkish RBA provides support for AUD/USD, bulls need to break back above 0.7140The Financial Damage of War – Markets Weekly OutlookWeekly Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast: 3% slide to $5000/oz as rate cut bets tumble, FOMC up nextEconomic calendar and final thoughts It is a quiet day on the European calendar with the only key data release in the European session coming in the form of German ZEW sentiment data.Looking at the US session and it is also light in terms of data with ADP employment change the highlight. Other factors that may influence markets today include the continuation of the NVIDIA AI conference which did boost AI stocks and may have an impact on volatility once more while any developments around the Middle East remains front and center. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index is currently locked in a consolidation phase, attempting to establish a viable floor.The index is trading in a tight range centered around 10,310, as buyers and sellers battle for control.Immediate Resistance: The first hurdle for bulls sits at 10,470, which aligns with the 200-period Simple Moving Average (yellow line). A break above this would target the psychological 10,550 level (dark blue line), which formerly acted as support and has now flipped to resistance.Key Support: On the downside, the 10,269 level is the immediate line in the sand. Should this fail, the recent swing low at 10,101 represents the final major support before the psychological 10,000 mark comes into play.The technical "death cross" or bearish alignment of the moving averages suggests that the path of least resistance remains tilted to the downside.The SMA 50 (10,552) is currently trending downward above the SMA 200 (10,469), creating a "supply zone" that will likely attract sellers on any relief rallies.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) period-14 is currently hovering at 48.3, effectively in "no man's land." After hitting oversold conditions in early March (which triggered several "BULL" pivot signals on the chart), momentum has neutralized.The lack of a clear divergence suggests that while the aggressive selling has paused, there is currently no strong conviction for a sustained breakout.FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, March 17, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Metals have been responding very unusually to the latest and ongoing US-Iran-Israel conflict, initially spiking higher but failing to withstand the pressure that followed.What is bothering Metals, as with virtually all other assets on the Market except for Crude and its beloved Petrodollar, is that supply tensions in Energy are known for their long-lasting effects on inflation.And while inflation helps metals shine bright over the long run, when rate expectations are repriced higher, non-yielding assets face trouble.This morning was yet another example of this, with Oil gapping higher at the Globex open and Gold, Silver, and other precious metals turning lower. Current Session in Metals (15:05 ET) – Courtesy of Finviz. March 16, 2026 The weird price action now gets even weirder when you see that a progressive easing in Oil and the US Dollar only briefly helped metals rebound.Gold now fragilely holds around $5,000 (after briefly crossing below the key level), and Silver is doing the same, this time around $80.A few alternatives that have held well are Copper and Platinum, both of which remain strong despite the broader context in the Commodity Market. We will explore their technical levels during tomorrow's Metals update.The million-dollar question remains the same:Are such corrections in the midst of a rough conflict opportunities to buy-dips or not?One risk of being long metals is that if the "fact" of war brings in some profit-taking, players who bought them as Safe-Havens won't have many reasons to hold such positions; that is, as long as the conflict doesn't escalate to something much worse.The broader de-dollarization context remains, but this could already be a trend of the past, given recent reactions to the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh (who has yet to be officially nominated) in end-January. Let's tackle the intraday charts and levels for both Silver (XAG/USD) and Gold (XAU/USD) to see if today's downside fakeout could help the case for some dip-buying or if technical red flags have emerged. Read More:A test of confidence for Stocks – Dow Jones and US Index OutlookMonetary policy in focus, WTI hovers around $100 & week aheadMarkets Today: Chinese data positive as Middle East conflict remains tense. Oil steady, FTSE 100 consolidate. Canada CPI up nextGold 4H Chart and Intraday Levels Gold 4H Chart. March 16, 2026. Source: TradingView Pre-FOMC flows can be tricky and this is exactly what is arising from this price action.Having broken the key $5,100 Pivot, technicals for the metal are now increasingly more mixed, but are still further from bearish territory.This provides decent scenarios for breakout plays:Rebounding from here would maintain the $5,000 to $5,200 rangeSome bullish plays above the 200-period MA ($5,080) would be sensicalAny break below $5,000 however could quickly open the door towards the Mid-Feb lows around $4,850Levels of interest for Gold trading:Support Levels:$5,000 Mini-Support$4,850 to $4,900 Support (Mid-Feb Lows)Pivotal Support and December record $4,400 to $4,500 (Bearish below)Channel lows $4,200Resistance Levels:$5,100 Major Pivot (broken, Bullish above)$5,250 March Resistance Zone (+/- $25)$5,400 Wartime ResistanceCurrent All-time Highs Resistance – $5,500 to $5,600Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart and Intraday Levels Silver 4H Chart. March 16, 2026. Source: TradingView Silver is now looking more grim than its Yellow-counterpart.Having failed to hold the upper bound of its 2025 bull channel, the precious metal is now well into a mid-term bearish momentum – It's lower bound is at $66 for now, close to the February lows. For short-term traders, keep a close eye on the intraday bear channel that has recently arisen.Breaking $80 on the session could bring more downside ahead.Levels of interest for Silver trading:Support Levels:Pivotal Support $80 to $82 (testing)February Momentum Support $76 to $77.50Major 2026 Support $70 to $722025 Channel lows $66Resistance Levels:Intraday Channel highs $81.50Main Pivot $84.50 Mini Resistance $87.50 $96.47 March highsKey psychological resistance $100 to $104Safe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks are now bouncing much higher as Oil retreatsParticipants are reacting positively to the few ships that successfully crossed the Strait of HormuzExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 We are now entering the third week of the US-Iran-Israel conflict that has seen thousands of missile and drone attacks all around the Middle East, and sentiment is now seemingly easing.To learn more about the conflict's progression, I invite you to check out this piece.Market Participants woke up to smoother price action in Crude Oil as weekend risk hedges unwound, and the situation hasn't worsened since.Flows in Financial Markets tend to move heavily on the repricing of expectations – so when uncertainty sets in, it tends to come with a nastier appetite for risk.This is precisely what led to Friday's risk-off session, pointing back to today's test of confidence – but even with the ongoing storm, uncertainty clouds are somewhat clearing.Major US Indexes are all up around 1%, which adds to the pre-existing inverse correlation with Oil prices – a trend that today is a boon for Wall Street. Oil and Dow Jones Negative Correlation. March 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView The reason for such a rebound was the successful crossing not only for two Indian LNG tankers (against the return of 183 Iranian sailors), but more particularly from the successful crossing of a first tanker in provenance from Abu Dhabi through the Strait of Hormuz.Its route was kind of peculiar, particularly as mines have apparently been placed throughout the Strait.Oil eased from its $102 gap higher at the Globex open to $93.50 lows but has rebounded in the last hour.It will be a bumpy ride for risk-appetite, as the short-term rebound in WTI coincides with a swift correction in the Market-open buying flows.Today, as the rest of this week, will act as a test of confidence for Stock Markets and Energy Commodities – Will disruptions continue or has uncertainty reached a climax? Let's spot where today's hesitant price action is implying by diving into today’s mid-session charts and key trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:The Financial Damage of War –  Markets Weekly OutlookChart alert: WTI crude oil rally almost reached $102.25, risk of minor setback towards $88.36Markets Today: Chinese data positive as Middle East conflict remains tense. Oil steady, FTSE 100 consolidate. Canada CPI up nextRBA Preview: Why a 25bps hike to 4.1% is the most likely outcomeCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:03 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – March 16, 2026 The current market heatmap is showing a more positive picture, with timid but consistent rebound across all sectors (except for struggling Telecoms).Electronic technology and transportations are leading to the upside – Tech and Finance remain the two most interesting sectors to watch in recent trading.Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – March 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA has now formed a Double Bottom at its War lows, a positive sign for dip-buyers.Since, the short-term outlook is now bullish, but the mid-term outlook can only rebound if bulls manage to push above 47,600 – The current outlook is one of cautious recovery.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels2H 50-period MA 47,105 (immediate test)Key Pivot 47,000 to 47,200 Pivotal Resistance 47,500 to 47,650Key Resistance at 48,000 (bull above)48,400 to 48,500 mini-resistanceSupport LevelsCurrent War lows Mini-Support 46,300 and Double Bottom46,000 +/- 100 pts November SupportAugust highs 45,71545,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – March 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is once again showing how strong its 24,000 to 25,000 range is holding.More particularly, after reaching its 24,250 support, bulls have formed a tight bull channel. This points to a test of the 25,000 range resistance; however the action will have to extend beyond the 2H 50-period MA (24,734).Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels2H 50-period MA (24,734) & Mini-intraday Pivot 24,750Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (mini range highs)25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistancePivotal resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (all-time highs if break)Support LevelsFebruary Support 24,200 (War lows)24,400 to 25,600 Key SupportOctober and Overnight lows 23,972October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000 (Monday drop)Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – March 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is following very similar technical patterns in this Weekly open, forming a tight bull channel and testing its 2H 50-period MA (6,722).Breaking a closing above would relaunch hopes for a test of the 6,800 Pivotal Resistance.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels2H 50-period MA (6,722) – Immediate testPivot 6,730 to 6,750 Pivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800 Past Week Resistance 6,820 to 6,840Support Levels6,680 to 6,700 Key Support (testing)Overnight lows 6,6066,490 to 6,512 October lows Immediate Support6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This morning was another show of how Black Gold is playing tricks on the Market and will keep doing so for the time being.After a brutal weekly open, sentiment and risk appetite had eased, with Oil yo-yoing between $120 and $80, despite remaining elevated, its price had stabilized throughout the following sessions, but, as warned in our prior WTI analysis, the stability was ephemeral.As more and more tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz throughout the week, Crude broke out of its temporary ~$80 range. Today could have somewhat eased the pressure, but the petrol Bulls came right back to fuel the Commodity. WTI 15M Chart – March 13, 2026. Source: TradingView Read More:Jet fuel market faces extreme supply tensionsAre we witnessing the Crypto dawn? – Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH) OutlookMarkets Today: Dollar and Oil Dominate as Traders Brace for US data barrage, FTSE 100 breaks key support zone The issue is that Oil rallies are hurting virtually every other part of the Market – Except for its beloved Petrodollar, back on top of the FX board.Participants are widely disregarding the recent softer prints in US data, particularly with the combined softer JOLTS, NFP, CPI and Core PCE releases.Traders are only focusing on Oil's Inflationary impact for now – Keep track of upcoming data as flows could at some point turn toward economic concerns.Next Wednesday's FOMC could also clarify the thinking. Daily Performance in FX – USD Back on Top – Courtesy of Finviz Pre-open Equity Futures had been bouncing higher, similarly as Cryptocurrencies – but since retreated. Nasdaq 30M Chart – March 13, 2026. Source: TradingView As long as prices don't return back above the past session's highs ($98.20), expect hesitant bearish action – Nasdaq is leading US Indexes to the downside.Watch for the 24,400 Support lows. Breaking it could trigger further downside towards 24,000, a small mean-reversion attempt is ongoing.Keep in mind that pre-weekend hedging could trigger some momentum in WTI (Oil) buying this afternoon.Metals are getting annihilated Daily Performance in Metals – Courtesy of Finviz With the Current Fed pricing for cuts back below 20 bps for the entire year (only!), the yielding assets aren't faring well.Metals are hedges against inflation on the long-term, but in the short-run, they tend to get repriced from higher expectations – exactly what's happening today.In case you missed it, check out our latest Silver in-depth piece right here.Discover: Silver (XAG/USD) rejects triangle formation from Iran War – Breakout scenariosSafe Trades and keep your eyes on WTI & Strait of Hormuz news!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Major US stock indexes slid 1% due to a volatile combination of escalating geopolitical instability in the Middle East and mounting jitters within the $2 trillion private credit market.Crude oil prices surged toward $100 per barrel after tanker attacks in Iraqi waters and Iranian threats to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.The Dow Jones index has fallen below its 20, 50, and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), with the 20-day and 50-day SMAs sloping downward, signaling a firmly bearish short-to-medium-term trend.46660 support may be key to a short-term bounce.Most Read: Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Why Bitcoin's recovery still lacks the ingredients for a decisive bullish turnMajor US stock indexes slid 1% on Thursday as a volatile mix of geopolitical instability and domestic credit concerns shook investor confidence.The primary catalyst was a sharp spike in crude oil prices, which surged toward the $100-per-barrel threshold following reports of two tankers set ablaze in Iraqi waters. These incidents, attributed to apparent Iranian strikes, are part of a broader wave of attacks targeting energy and transport infrastructure across the Middle East. The escalation was further underscored by a defiant stance from Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who suggested that the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy artery should remain closed as a strategic lever of pressure.This supply-side threat has effectively reignited fears of persistent inflation, hitting the financial sector particularly hard as traders brace for a potentially more aggressive economic environment.Comments late last night by Iranian military officials about potential attacks on companies in the Gulf which support the US military may also be weighing on markets in early trade.Compounding these worries, Wall Street is also closely monitoring mounting "jitters" within the private credit market, adding another layer of risk to an already fragile trading session.S&P 500 Heatmap Source: TradingView Private credit fears on the rise The $2 trillion private credit market is facing intense scrutiny as a series of recent defaults has sparked widespread concern among investors. This anxiety was amplified by a warning from the Swiss private equity firm Partners Group, which projected that default rates in the sector could potentially double over the next few years.These mounting jitters triggered a significant sell-off in the financial sector, with the S&P 500 financials index dropping 1.5%.The impact was felt acutely among major institutional players, particularly after Morgan Stanley saw its shares tumble 4.3% following a decision to limit redemptions at one of its private credit funds.This move follows similar restrictive actions taken by Blackstone and BlackRock earlier this month, both of which saw their stock prices decline by more than 1%. Further rattling the market, JPMorgan Chase moved to reduce the valuations of certain loans tied to private credit funds, contributing to broader losses for banking giants like Citigroup and Goldman Sachs, which both fell by more than 3%.Oil reserves release only a temporary fix The International Energy Agency said that the world is facing the biggest oil supply disruption ever. This comes as the IEA announced a coordinated emergency release of up to 400m barrels.It’s a record amount, eclipsing the 182m barrel emergency release from 2022. We're still waiting for the IEA to provide full details of the release.There are still concerns regarding the IEA-coordinated release, especially about the speed at which this oil will reach the market and whether it will be enough to tie up the market until we see oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again.US Energy Secretary Wright speaking late on Wednesday said that the US will release 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It will take about 120 days to deliver the fuel.According to ING research, this works out to a US release of around 1.4m b/d. If you assume a similar timeline for other countries, that works out to 3.3m b/d- far short of the supply losses we are seeing from the Persian Gulf.Either way, these releases are not a long-term fix and the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed the probability of higher oil prices and supply shortfalls increase.Wall Street outlook moving forward Risk assets are likely to remain under pressure the longer the conflict drags on. The economic outlook has shifted with concerns growing around supply of various products from fertilizers to helium etc.This is reflected by Goldman Sachs cutting their US economic outlook and raising their Oil forecast for the second time in little over a week.According to standardized economic models, a sustained 10% increase in oil prices typically adds 0.2 percentage points to the headline inflation rate and 0.04 points to core inflation. This same 10% surge generally drags down GDP growth by a tenth of a percentage point, though the severity of this slowdown can be mitigated by the productivity of domestic energy producers.Beyond energy costs, the economy is also grappling with the restrictive weight of tighter financial conditions. Research indicates that for every 1 percentage point of tightening in the financial conditions index, GDP growth is reduced by a full point over the subsequent year. Currently, Goldman Sachs' financial conditions index has already tightened by 0.2 percentage points, signaling a measurable cooling effect on the broader economy.Technical Analysis - Dow Jones From a technical perspective, the Dow Jones recovered admirably after the weekend gap down which saw the index open some 500 points lower than Fridays close.The entire gap was closed on monday followed by another day of gains on Tuesday but risk sentiment has since waned as markets begin to expect a drawn out conflict in the Middle East.This led to yesterdays significant selloff which saw the Dow shed around 1000 points and print a massive bearish engulfing candle.The price has fallen below its 20, 50, and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Notably, the 20-day SMA (light blue) and 50-day SMA (purple) are beginning to slope downward, signaling that the short-to-medium-term trend is firmly bearish.However, the index is holding above a key support area for now at the 46660 handle with a daily close above this handle opening up a possible short-term bounce.At this stage though, the technicals may be at the mercy of the fundamental factors driving markets and need to be put in perspective.Any significant developments on the geopolitical front could lead to a drastic change of the technical outlook as well.Dow Jones Daily Chart, March 12, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Market is turning bleak in this morning's action as Oil rallies to fresh highs yet again.Our past-day Oil analysis saw rangebound action to potentially turn into a grind higher, which realized quicker than most expected!The commodity is up close to 10% on the day, slowly but surely extending to the $98-$100 Resistance.This occurs as attacks on tankers around the Arabian Sea and the Strait of Hormuz are now multiplying. WTI Oil 1H Chart (11:16) – March 12, 2026. Source: TradingView Oil is forming a bull-channel in the immediate action – Its top is located around $101.30 so that could be a target to the upside.Buyers are attempting a break of the channel's mid-line ($96.55) – A key area for momentum.Momentum buyers will want to see if the 20-Hour MA ($92.68) holds.The recent rise in Oil has gradually priced out Fed Cuts for 2026 due to inflationary fears. There is now less than one full cut priced in for the year!The FOMC meeting is approaching fast (next Wednesday, March 18). Current Fed Rate Cut Pricing to the December 2026 Meeting– FedWatch Tool This is hurting Stock Markets extensively on the session, Nasdaq is leading to the Downside down -1.50% – update coming up soon! Stock Index and Energy Commodity Futures – Courtesy of Finviz Safe Trades, keep track of the advancement of the conflict!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.