Oil inventory:Expectations I had seen centred on:Headline crude -0.5 mn barrelsDistillates -1.6 mn bblsGasoline -1.6 mn This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Crude's inability to break decisively in either direction reflects a market caught between two credible but contradictory signals: mediator optimism on Hormuz and continued kinetic escalation at sea. Traders are fading both the de-escalation headlines and the attack headlines almost as quickly as they land, which points to positioning that is short-term neutral but structurally long, given the EIA's upgraded price forecasts and record-low SPR levels removing any near-term supply cushion. The dollar's firmness near the 101 handle on DXY is doing double duty, both reflecting the energy-driven inflation impulse and pricing in a modest lift in September rate hike odds after this week's hawkish Fed commentary (Goolsbee on Tuesday). Equity markets, by contrast, are reading the same headlines as risk-on, with energy majors' record profitability offsetting any drag from Middle East uncertainty (except for a sad last hour!). Wednesday's CPI print is shaping up as the next real inflection point across all four asset classes.--- Every de-escalation headline out of the Gulf is being met by a fresh attack within hours, and oil traders are no longer sure which signal to believe.Summary:Crude has rallied for four straight sessions, WTI near 82 dollars and Brent near 88 dollars, still up close to 30 percent year on yearEIA has raised its 2026 and 2027 crude price forecasts, citing July's Middle East production disruptions and ongoing shipping route riskPakistan's defence minister said the US and Iran are close to "some sort of an arrangement" on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Qatar reporting advanced Iran Oman talks on the sameA cargo ship was struck in the Red Sea's Bab al Mandeb strait with reported fatalities, and a separate container ship in the Gulf of Oman was reportedly hit by a US helicopter after ignoring blockade warningsTrump has hardened his public stance on Iran, adding compensation demands and signalling a willingness to let economic pressure build rather than resume strikesChicago Fed's Goolsbee said inflation, not the labour market, is the economy's biggest problem, reinforcing hawkish Fed rhetoric ahead of Wednesday's CPI releaseUS equities sit near fresh highs, but with a soft final hour on Tuesday, with the Dow briefly above 54,000 and energy majors posting a combined 48 billion dollars in second quarter profit Crude oil extended its rally for a fourth consecutive session, with WTI trading near 82 dollars a barrel and Brent close to 88 dollars, as the market weighs conflicting signals from the Gulf. Prices are up close to 30 percent from a year ago, and the structural case for higher prices firmed further after the EIA raised its crude price forecasts for both 2026 and 2027, pointing to July's Middle East production disruptions and persistent risk to key shipping routes as justification.The tug of war playing out in real time centres on the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan's defence minister, Khawaja Asif, told Bloomberg that "things are shaping up again in favour of a peace arrangement or a deal," describing the signals from the past two to three days as pointing toward some form of arrangement between Washington and Tehran. Qatar separately said talks between Iran and Oman on reopening the strait to some maritime traffic have reached an advanced stage, and Pakistan's interior minister met Iranian officials in Tehran this week as part of a renewed mediation push.That optimism sits awkwardly alongside fresh attacks. A cargo ship was struck in the Red Sea's Bab al Mandeb strait, with maritime security sources reporting fatalities aboard, extending the conflict's reach beyond the Strait of Hormuz. A separate incident saw a container ship in the Gulf of Oman reportedly hit by a US military helicopter after its crew ignored warnings from forces enforcing the naval blockade of Iranian ports, a blockade first imposed in April and reinstated in July after the June peace agreement collapsed. Trump, meanwhile, has hardened his public rhetoric, adding demands for compensation from Iran and signalling he may allow economic pressure to intensify rather than resume direct military strikes.The inflation side of the ledger firmed too. Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee said inflation, not labour market weakness, remains the central bank's most pressing concern, describing the job market as "stable, without being good." His comments land days ahead of Wednesday's CPI print, which markets are treating as the next major catalyst for both the dollar and rate expectations following July's 9 to 3 FOMC vote to hold rates at 3.50 to 3.75 percent.Energy majors have been a standout beneficiary, with Exxon, Chevron, BP, Shell and TotalEnergies posting a combined 48 billion dollars in second quarter profit, their highest cash generation on record. With US Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels now below 300 million barrels, the lowest since 1983, the underlying supply cushion for any renewed shock remains thin, keeping the Hormuz outcome as the single biggest swing factor for markets into the second half of August. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

U.S. stocks closed mostly lower, with the NASDAQ the weakest of the major indices, while small caps bucked the trend with the Russell 2000 posting a gain.The closing levels show: Dow industrial average: fell 184.02 points or -0.34% at 53,797.39 S&P index: fell 24.94 points or -0.32% at 7,728.18 NASDAQ composite: fell 159.91 points or -0.60% at 26,445.45 Russell 2000: rose 9.73 points or +0.32% at 3,027.13There are some notable individual stock losers today, with weakness particularly pronounced across technology and growth names. On Holding is the clear downside standout, while AppLovin, Datadog and Alphabet are also under significant pressure. Dell, Oracle and Adobe are each down more than 3%, adding to the broader weakness in the tech sector.Some of the biggest decliners include:On Holding (ONON): -20.29% AppLovin (APP): -6.01% Datadog (DDOG): -5.37% Alphabet (GOOGL): -3.84% Dell Technologies (DELL): -3.69% Oracle (ORCL): -3.69% Adobe (ADBE): -3.39% Alibaba (BABA): -3.38% Baidu (BIDU): -3.25% Tencent (TCEHY): -3.25% CF Industries (CF): -3.03% The standout is On Holding, which is down more than 20% after America's growth called for the premium footwear and sportswear company. The 20% decline far outpaced the losses elsewhere. Meanwhile, the declines in AppLovin, Datadog, Alphabet, Dell, Oracle and Adobe highlight broad selling across software, cloud and other technology-related shares.There are also a number of notable winners today, with gains spread across AI infrastructure, semiconductors, industrials and materials. Consolidated Water leads the list, while Nebius, Alcoa and Vertiv are all up more than 4%. ASML and Arista Networks are also participating in the upside, providing some strength on the technology side despite weakness elsewhere in the sector.Some of the biggest gainers include:Consolidated Water (CWCO): +6.85% — shares are higher following its Q2 results, with revenue topping expectations while EPS matched estimates. Nebius (NBIS): +4.95% — advancing ahead of its Q2 earnings report scheduled for tomorrow morning. Alcoa (AA): +4.75% Vertiv (VRT): +4.34% ASML (ASML): +3.80% Emerson Electric (EMR): +3.57% Whirlpool (WHR): +3.37% Arista Networks (ANET): +3.31% Celsius Holdings (CELH): +3.23% Eaton (ETN): +3.22% The upside is fairly diverse, but AI and data-center-related names remain well represented, with Nebius, Vertiv, ASML and Arista Networks among the stronger performers. Industrial names are also having a good session, with Emerson and Eaton both gaining more than 3%.The weakness came as optimism surrounding a potential U.S.-Iran agreement faded and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remained a concern. Technology shares were among the laggards, helping push the NASDAQ to the bottom of the major-index rankings. Investors are also looking ahead to Wednesday's U.S. CPI report, which could play an important role in shaping expectations for the Fed's September policy decision. The inflation data takes on added importance given the recent volatility in crude oil and its potential implications for inflation. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Markets continue to digest earnings reports and AI developments. The big news yesterday on the $500 billion in AI capex fundraising has added to questions about who will pay for it but it led to some nice gains for asset managers. The laggard was Google as it fell another 3.5%. It continues to struggle after a shakeup last week among the top people in AI and technology. The chatter about a broken culture is gaining mometum and it has the market worried that Gemini will never catch up, even with the company touting 1 billion users today.The intraday action saw modest gains at the open but creeping selling as the day went on. Oil tried to sell off on Pakistani headlines about a potential deal but finished 1.6% higher on some late bids. That's back-to-back losses in the S&P 500 but I don't think anyone is ready to hit the panic button.Closing changes on the main indexes:S&P 500 -0.3%Nasdaq -0.6%Russell 2000 +0.4%DJIA -0.4%Toronto TSX Comp +0.1%In terms of the $500 billion fundraising, here is how those names did:Apollo and KKR were also among the top-5 stocks on the S&P 500 on the day:At the bottom, internet advertising company AppLovin struggled: This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Not much of note here.Japanese markets retrun from a holiday Tuesday (that stretched to a long weekend for many in the markets!). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The roller-coaster price action in the USDCHF continues, but for now the buyers remain in control.The pair remains above both its 100-hour moving average at 0.80956 and its 200-hour moving average at 0.80902, and today extended into the next key swing area between 0.81079 and 0.81195. The session high reached 0.8120, just above the upper end of that area, before rotating modestly lower. The current price near 0.8112 remains within the swing area.Holding above the 0.81079–0.81195 area – and ultimately extending above today's 0.8120 high – would keep the buyers firmly in control and open the door for a move toward the 0.8153 area, which represents the upper end of the broader range that has contained most of the price action since mid-June. Above that, traders would look toward the late-July highs near 0.82063.On the downside, the 100-hour MA at 0.80956 and 200-hour MA at 0.80902 remain the key short-term barometers for buyers and sellers. It would take a move back below both moving averages – and staying below – to shift the technical bias more firmly back to the downside.That said, traders should keep the broader price action in perspective. Since mid-June, USDCHF has spent most of its time trading between approximately 0.8029 and 0.8153. There have been temporary extensions above and below that range, but neither buyers nor sellers have been able to sustain a lasting breakout. The price has also crossed above and below the 100- and 200-hour moving averages with regularity, highlighting the choppy nature of the market.Those broader extremes remain the key targets. A sustained break above 0.8153 would strengthen the bullish case and put the late-July highs near 0.82063 in focus. Conversely, a reversal back below the hourly moving averages would weaken the bullish bias and turn attention back toward the lower end of the broader range near 0.8029.For now, however, the buyers have the edge. The next step is getting and staying above today's 0.8120 high. Tomorrow, the bullishness will be testedTomorrow, the dollar's bullish bias will face an important test with the release of the U.S. CPI data at 8:30 AM ET.Headline CPI is expected to rise 0.1% month-over-month, while the core measure is forecast to increase 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is expected to ease slightly to 3.4% from 3.5%, while core CPI is forecast to tick down to 2.5% from 2.6%.Needless to say, a hotter-than-expected report would likely provide another catalyst for dollar buying. With inflation still running above the Fed's target, even a modest upside surprise could increase expectations that the Fed may tighten policy again at its September meeting. Conversely, softer inflation readings would likely take some of the pressure off the Fed and could lead to a reversal of some of the dollar's recent gains.Heading into the report, the market is pricing the chances of a September Fed rate hike at around 50%, leaving plenty of room for those expectations – and the dollar – to move depending on tomorrow's inflation numbers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Reports continue to highlight ongoing meetings between top negotiators from Canada and the United States ahead of an August 19 tariff deadline.CBC today reports that Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and his American counterpart "are aiming to present U.S. President Donald Trump a path to a potential trade deal as early as Monday," citing unnamed sources.On Aug 19, 50% tariffs will hit hundreds of Canadian imports and the US will hit other countries with similar tariffs. Today, LeBlanc is meeting with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Washington in the third face-to-face meeting. Aside from avoiding the tariffs, which is the baseline for any agreement, Canada is aiming to lower tariffs on steel, aluminum, lumber and autos. Notably, this latest report includes lumber in the list while prior ones didn't. Various other reports said Canada could be looking for a combination of lower tariffs and quotas on steel and aluminum. Tariff rates are currently at 50% in a move that's crippled the Canadian steel industry in particular.In terms of USD/CAD, there has been some steady selling following the big May-June runup and we're now approaching the 50% retracement. If there's a quality deal that lends some certainty to this and USMCA, then that will be a big tailwind for the loonie. But in Trump's world, that's a big ask. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The latest EIA outlook includes a notable upward revision to crude oil price forecasts for both 2026 and 2027, while also adjusting its expectations for global supply and demand. The agency also highlighted significant Middle East production disruptions in July and continued risks surrounding key shipping routes.Key takeaways from the latest outlook: U.S. WTI crude spot prices are expected to average $80.88/bbl in 2026, up from the previous forecast of $76.26. Brent crude spot prices are expected to average $86.81/bbl in 2026, up from $81.91. U.S. WTI crude spot prices are expected to average $65.39/bbl in 2027, up from $60.76. Brent crude spot prices are expected to average $69.39/bbl in 2027, up from $64.76. 2026 global oil output is seen at 100.8 mln bpd, down from the previous forecast of 101.9 mln bpd. 2027 global oil output is seen at 109.7 mln bpd, versus 109.8 mln bpd previously. 2026 world oil demand is seen at 102.7 mln bpd, versus 102.8 mln bpd previously. 2027 world oil demand is seen at 105.0 mln bpd, up from the previous forecast of 104.8 mln bpd. Mideast oil output shut-ins averaged an estimated 5.5 mln bpd in July. Recent threats to ships moving Saudi oil through the Bab el-Mandeb have not caused output shut-ins. U.S. crude oil net imports are expected to remain below average through 2027, reflecting strong global demand for U.S. exports and lower U.S. imports.Overall, the EIA outlook leans bullish for crude oil, particularly for 2026. The most important takeaway is the sizable upward revision to price forecasts, with WTI now seen averaging $80.88 and Brent $86.81 in 2026. That is accompanied by a significant reduction in expected 2026 global oil production and an estimated 5.5 million bpd of Middle East output shut-ins in July, pointing to tighter supply conditions. Demand forecasts were little changed, although 2027 demand was revised slightly higher. The bearish offset is that prices are still expected to fall sharply in 2027 as supply conditions improve. For the nearer-term market, however, the combination of higher price forecasts, lower expected production, and Middle East supply disruptions tilts the report bullish.Crude oil prices are currently up $1.05 at $83.19. The high-priced today reached $84.61. The low price was at $81.27 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

High yield  4.291% WI level at the time of the auction 4.296% Tail -0.5 basis points versus average of 0.0%. Bid to cover 2.71X versus 6 month average of 2.61XIndirects (overseas buyers) 64.2% versus average of 64.3% Directs 24.0% versus average of 21.7%Dealers 11.8% versus average of 13.9%AUCTION GRADE B+Solid demand with a negative detail. The bid to cover was higher than the average. The indirect were near the average reflective of the international demand. The domestic buyers were stronger than the average leading to a lower dealer inventory to sell  I give it an B+ US yields are lower on the day with the two-year down 1.5 basis points at 4.224%. The 10 year yield is down -1.4 basis points at 4.684%, and the 30 year yield is down -1.0 basis points at 5.232%. The markets are basically 50/50 a September rate hike. It was near 62% ahead of the US jobs report on Friday. Tomorrow, the CPI data will be released and will be a key data point although there will be one additional CPI data point before the September rate meeting. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prices and affordability, that's the biggest prolem we are facing right nowLabor market is stable is stable, without being good This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

As London/European traders head for the exits, the major European equity indices are closing mixed, but Germany's DAX and Spain's Ibex stand out after closing at new record highs. The DAX rose 0.26%, while the Ibex added 0.20%, extending the recent run of record-setting performances across European equities. European markets have been pushing into record territory recently amid strong corporate earnings and optimism surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations. The closing levels show:German DAX: +0.26% at 26,391.43 — record closeFrance CAC 40: -0.13% at 8,714.95 UK FTSE 100: -0.17% at 10,844.20 Spain's Ibex: +0.20% at 20,213.61 — record closeItaly's FTSE MIB: +0.08% at 53,706.20 The relatively subdued moves come as investors continue to weigh developments in the Middle East. Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said today that the U.S. and Iran are close to "some sort of an arrangement," adding that recent signals suggest things are moving toward a peace agreement. Qatar has also indicated that negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz have reached an advanced stage. However, shipping disruptions and disagreements over the terms of an agreement continue to keep uncertainty elevated. In the European debt market, benchmark 10-year yields moved lower across the board:Germany: 3.158%, -2.6 basis points France: 3.977%, -1.1 basis points UK: 4.965%, -3.5 basis points Spain: 3.599%, -2.7 basis points Italy: 3.952%, -2.7 basis pointsUS stocks trade mixedAs European traders head home, the major U.S. stock indices are also trading mixed, with the Russell 2000 outperforming while the Nasdaq is the weakest of the major indices.Dow Industrial Average: -30.02 points or -0.06% at 53,951.38 S&P 500: -6.58 points or -0.08% at 7,746.54 NASDAQ Composite: -87.89 points or -0.33% at 26,517.46 Russell 2000: +13.29 points or +0.44% at 3,030.69 In the U.S. debt market, yields are lower across the curve and near the lows for the day.  Yields are higher at ths start of the US session. After the weaker US jobs report, the market is pricing closer to a 50-50 chance of a hike in September.  The US CPI data will be released tomorrow and will be a key piece of data on how that bias shifts - at least in the short term:2-year: 4.226%, -1.3 basis points 5-year: 4.391%, -1.4 basis points 10-year: 4.686%, -1.2 basis points 30-year: 5.235%, -0.8 basis points Oil remains higherCrude oil continues to trade higher despite the more optimistic comments surrounding a potential U.S.-Iran agreement. The uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz remains a key driver, leaving oil particularly sensitive to headlines. WTI crude oil: $83.10, +$0.81 or +0.96%. The high price reached $84.61. The low price was at $81.27.Gold: $4,379.30, -$11.35 or -0.26% Silver: $64.846, -$0.835 or -1.27% Bitcoin: $63,567, -$559 or -0.88% U.S. existing home sales were slightly better than expected in July, but the overall housing market remains sluggish as elevated mortgage rates continue to weigh on affordability and turnover.Existing home sales: 4.06 million annualized vs. 4.05 million expected Prior: revised higher to 4.13 million from 4.09 million Monthly change: -1.7%, following a revised -1.4% decline in June Median home price: $434,100 Prices: +2.0% year-over-year Inventory: 4.6 months of supply, unchanged from June Bottom line: July sales essentially matched expectations but declined for a second straight month after the stronger activity seen in the spring. High mortgage rates remain the primary headwind, limiting affordability and keeping many existing homeowners reluctant to move. Inventory has improved compared with the tighter conditions of recent years, but at 4.6 months of supply, it remains below levels normally associated with a fully balanced market. Meanwhile, prices continue to rise, although the relatively modest 2.0% annual increase suggests affordability is gradually improving when adjusted for income growth and inflation. Overall, the tone is relatively cautious as European traders exit. European equities finished mixed, bond yields moved lower on both sides of the Atlantic, and U.S. equities are struggling for direction. Meanwhile, oil remains the market to watch as traders continue to react to each headline surrounding the U.S.-Iran negotiations and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The NZDUSD has been stuck in a narrow 49-pip trading range over the last seven trading days, highlighting a market that has seen plenty of intraday and day-to-day price action but very little net progress.The broader move had been more bullish following the June 26 low, but that momentum has transitioned into a more neutral, consolidative phase. Evidence of that balance can be seen in the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, which have converged near 0.5878–0.58799. The sideways price action has allowed those moving averages to catch up with the market, and they now serve as the key short-term barometers for buyers and sellers.The 100-hour moving average comes in at 0.58799, while the 200-hour moving average is just below at 0.5878. Trading above the 100-hour MA gives buyers a modest advantage. Conversely, a move below the 200-hour MA — and staying below — would tilt the short-term bias more in favor of sellers.For now, however, the bigger story remains the range. Traders are looking toward the extremes at 0.58587 on the downside and 0.59066 on the upside for the next breakout and, importantly, momentum away from the recent consolidation.A break below 0.58587 would give sellers more control and have traders looking toward the 50% midpoint at 0.58092 as a potential downside target.On the topside, a break above 0.59066 would shift the bias more firmly in favor of buyers. That would put swing levels near 0.5918 and 0.5928 in play, followed by another swing target near 0.5967.Until one of the range extremes is broken, the NZDUSD remains stuck in the mud, with the converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages defining the battle between buyers and sellers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

So the latest buzzword -- or buzzphrase -- is that "Compute is an investable asset class".It's a line that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is touting and it's throwing up all kinds of red flags for me. Firstly, I'm reminded of very similar wording around crypto near the top, just at the time the Wall Street investment banks piled in. It was ultimately a huge bait-and-switch as mom & pop investors were lured in to be exit liquidity for early investors.Now, we have Huang announcing a partnership with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR in what's basically the formation of the Avengers for capital raising in order to get $500 billion to build out AI infrastructure (with NVDA chips of course).Again, the announcement is filled with buzzwords and the aim is to "establish independent financing platforms" of "third party capital".To put this all into plainer wording, they're trying to say that compute is equivalent to financing highways, airports and bridges with the idea that if the company owning it fails, you get the chips/datacenter and lease it to someone else. It's a pitch aimed to get into the deep pockets of pensions and insurance companies.One of the reasons this is such a big red flag for me is because it's another sign that the money is running out. Venture capital has been tapped hard on AI -- and did very well -- but isn't interested in financing data centers. Companies have scaled up debt where they can but it's expensive and their CDS are rising. That's since led to Google raising equity and just this week Intel announced the same.So the entire essay by Huang is an effort to raise money from people who normally don't lend for this kind of thing. It's an attempt to reframe the risks, and mitigate them. The stakes are abundantly clear as with the announcement, which included a CNBC panel that surely had the largest ability to deploy capital of any in history:  BlackRock's Larry Fink, Goldman Sachs' David Solomon, BlackStone's Jon Gray, KKR's Waldemar Szlezak, Brookfield's Bruce Flatt, and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.Notably, all of them went into a hard sell on "AI factories".Not surprisingly, the market is loving it as they've combined to soak pensions and take the risk away from the companies that are promising a brave new world (and will be the ones that profit from it). The bamboozle they're trying to pull is that a GPU is no longer an asset with a quickly-depreciating 3-year asset life as the next generation makes them obsolete but the equivalent of a power plant.Moves today:The brazen contradiction here is assuming the long useful life of these assets goes directly against the dominant investment theme in markets right now: That recursive self-improvement is coming via AI and will be deployed in chip design (and everything else). So we value Anthropic at $1 trillion plus because it's going to change everything but it won't find ways to do inference cheaper or design better chips?That folds into my #1 sale red flag around AI, the idea that it's going to cure diseases. Whenever one of the AI titans writes anything or describes the use case of AI, one of the first things that comes up -- usually the first -- is that it's going to cure diseases.Just yesterday, Mark Zuckerberg leaned into it writing:Invention, not automation, will be the greatest contribution of superintelligence. Early AI could answer questions and do routine work. Soon it will increasingly help discover new knowledge -- ranging from discovering new drugs to cure a family member's disease to finding new ways to improve your business.Dario Amodei has been selling this idea for years.Surely you've heard a version of this before. The thing is, no one touting any of it has ever developed a drug or cured anyting. They haven't the slightest idea how long drug development takes. To me, it's like them saying that AI will help them find literal gold mines. The thing that any mining investor will tell you is that you don't actually 'discover' gold mines, you have to prove them with years of drilling. Drug development if fraught with an infinite amount of issues and necesserily long testing timelines.The AI hype-seller may now be starting to realize this and also realize that their investments need to pay off in a shorter timeline than curing cancer. But their regulatory capture runs so deep that Zuckerberg isn't saying that they will find cures via the traditional route, instead he's saying they need to 'move fast and break things' on human drug testing."We should accelerate society's ability to develop new cures and inoculate against new issues as they arise. This includes streamlining how the FDA and other regulators test and approve new treatments. As AI increases the pace of drug discovery, we will need to update these processes to keep up with the pace of innovation anyway."Who is he to weigh in on drug testing protocols? Have we worshipped the tech gods so much that we're going to let them re-write the rule book on drug testing so they can justify AI spending? How about before we launch accelerated human experiments you cure just one disease with AI the traditional way? This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The broader S&P and Nasdaq indices are mixed in intraday trading, with the S&P currently up around 0.07% while the Nasdaq is down -0.08%.For the S&P index, the technical picture remains bullish as the index trades near its all-time high of 7793.68, reached during last week’s trading. A break above that level would put the focus on an upward-sloping trendline connecting recent highs on the hourly chart. That trendline currently comes in near 7850.00 and is moving higher.Recall that last Tuesday, the S&P broke above its previous record high at 7617.37, while also moving away from a key swing area between 7577.92 and 7617.37. That area now represents an important downside risk zone. It would take a move back below that area — and staying below — to give sellers greater control. Absent that, the buyers remain firmly in the driver’s seat, with the record high and the topside trendline the next targets.For the Nasdaq index, the technical picture is somewhat less bullish. The index remains below its all-time high of 27190.21, reached in early June. That remains the longer-term upside target, but there is work to do before getting there.Closer resistance comes from a swing area between 26605.36 and 26788.62, with the upper end representing last week’s high. The Nasdaq is currently trading below the lower boundary at 26605.36, giving sellers some short-term control. Staying below that level keeps the door open for additional downside probing. Conversely, a move back above 26605.36, followed by a break of 26788.62, would shift the technical bias back more firmly toward the buyers and put the all-time high back in play. In the video above I take a look at the key technical levels in play for each of the broader indices. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was 4.09m (revised to 4.13m)Sales -1.7% vs -2.4% prior (revised to -1.4%)Home prices +2.0% y/yMedian price $434,100Inventory at 4.6 months vs 4.6 months priorThe housing market is in a steady state that isn't helped by high mortgage rates due to rising Treasury yields. There is some steady growth in that chart but when you discount it against CPI, there is a slight-but-steady improvement in affordability. The key question next is what will happen to borrowing rates from here. There is also -- in some sense -- a ticking time bomb in the US housing market as construction hasn't kept pace with household formation. So at some point there needs to be a pickup in home construction, though builders may neen the price signal to accelerate for that to happen.For background, existing-home sales are the largest component of the U.S. housing market and are closely watched for signals on household confidence, affordability, mortgage demand and housing-related spending. The data cover closings of single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, making the series broader and generally less revision-prone than new-home sales, which are based on contract signings.Through May, the market was showing a modest recovery from the rate-driven weakness that has depressed turnover since 2022. Sales rose 3.2% from April and were also up 3.2% from a year earlier, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million — the strongest pace since December. Single-family homes drove the improvement, with sales up 3.5% month over month to a 3.80 million annualized pace, while condo and co-op sales were unchanged at 370,000.Affordability improved somewhat, with NAR’s affordability index rising to 105.6 from 97.5 a year earlier as income growth outpaced home-price gains in many regions. Even so, affordability remains the central constraint on the market. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.44% in May, higher than in April but below the 6.82% rate a year earlier.Inventory is also moving in the right direction, though only gradually. Unsold supply rose 3.3% in May to 1.55 million homes, equivalent to 4.5 months of supply. Despite the increase in listings, prices remain firm: the national median existing-home price rose 1.3% year over year to a May record of $429,300, suggesting that additional supply has yet to produce broad-based price relief. First-time buyers accounted for 35% of sales, while cash buyers held steady at 25%. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Pakistan defense minister Khawaja Asif told Bloomberg that “things are shaping up again in favor of a peace arrangement or a deal,” on Hormuz shipping transits.That's a sharp turnabout after yesterday Trump escalated rhetoric and called for US reparations in response to a similar Iranian call. The countries are  close to “some sort of arrangement” over the Strait of Hormuz he said. “The signals in the last two to three days are that we are close to some sort of an arrangement,” he added.It's not the only sign of progress. Al Jazeera reported that talks between Iran and Oman about opening a shipping channel through the Strait were at a “critical juncture.”WTI crude oil rose as high as $84.61 earlier but has turned lower on the report and is now down 44-cents to $81.69. It remains meaningfully higher on the week. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The RBA kept rates unchanged, but the message from the central bank remains firmly in the hold-or-hike camp. Rate cuts are not currently part of the discussion, and the next move could still be higher if inflation and cost pressures fail to ease. That more hawkish stance has ultimately helped support the AUDUSD today.The initial reaction to the RBA decision was relatively muted, with the AUDUSD actually moving lower after the announcement. The price fell back below both the 100-day and 100-hour moving averages near 0.7052 and reached a session low of 0.7041.However, sellers could not maintain the downside momentum.Buyers returned and pushed the price back above both the 100-hour and 100-day moving averages. That shift helped propel the pair to a new session high of 0.7068, and solidify the 100 day moving average as a key support level once again. Staying above keeps buyers and control.The rebound puts the focus back on an important topside target at the 50% midpoint of the move down from the May 5 high to the late-June low at 0.70707. There are certainly a lot of sevens and zeros in that level, but technically it is an important barometer for buyers and sellers.The price moved above that midpoint on Friday and again yesterday, only to quickly rotate back to the downside on both occasions. As a result, getting above 0.70707 — and staying above it — would be an important technical step and could be the catalyst for additional upside momentum.Just above that level sits Friday's high at 0.7077. A break above both 0.70707 and 0.7077 would open the door toward the next swing area between 0.7100 and 0.7113. Beyond that, the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the May high comes in at 0.7119.For now, the buyers have the advantage with the price back above the 100-day moving average. It would take a move back below that moving average to give the sellers more hope. More downside control would come on a break below the rising 200-hour moving average at 0.7036.Bottom line: Buyers are in control following the post-RBA rebound. Get above the 50% midpoint at 0.70707 and Friday's high at 0.7077, and traders can start looking for the next upside push toward 0.7100–0.7119. Move back below the 100-day moving average, and the bullish technical bias starts to weaken. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD is trading in a very narrow 16-pip range today, with buyers and sellers battling for control near a key technical support level. That is not a lot of movement, and at some point the range will break. Traders will then look for momentum in the direction of that break.The broader bias remains tilted to the downside following Friday's stronger-than-expected Canadian jobs report and weaker-than-expected US employment report. Those releases sent the USDCAD sharply lower, away from its falling 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart above) and through the swing area between 1.3948 and 1.3966 (see red numbered circles and yellow area on the chart above).The next key target for sellers is the rising 100-day moving average, currently at 1.39167. Friday's low reached 1.39248, while Monday's low and today's low have both held just above that level near 1.3929. The repeated tests highlight the importance of the 100-day MA as support.If sellers are going to take firmer control, they need to get below that 100-day moving average at 1.39167. The last time the USDCAD traded below its 100-day MA was back on May 14, when the average was near 1.3715. From there, the pair ultimately climbed to its 2026 high of 1.4247 on June 24 before beginning its current rotation back to the downside.A break below the 100-day MA would put the 50% midpoint of the move up from the May 1 low at 1.3899 in play. Get below that level, and attention would turn toward the 200-day moving average at 1.38547 (the lower green moving average on the chart above).Conversely, if buyers can start to exert more control, the first step would be getting back above the low of the broken swing area at 1.3948. Above there, the top of that area at 1.3966 would be targeted, followed by the falling 100-hour moving average at 1.39812.A move above the 100-hour MA would be a more meaningful shift in the short-term bias and open the door toward the 200-hour moving average near 1.4009. Ultimately however, the price would need to get and stay above the 200 hour moving average to give the buyers control over the sellersBottom line: Sellers remain more in control, but the 100-day moving average at 1.39167 has been a stubborn support level and is helping to neutralize the downside momentum over the last two trading days. At the same time, buyers have been unable to reclaim even the first resistance target at 1.3948. That keeps the bearish bias intact, with the 100-day MA representing the next key hurdle for sellers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was 15.0KFor the four weeks ending July 25, 2026, US private employers added an average of 8,250 jobs a week down from 15,000 last week.What is this release?Initiated in late 2025, ADP releases the NER Pulse, an estimate of the week-over-week change in employment based on a four-week moving average. These releases are seasonally adjusted and have a two-week lag to allow for more complete and accurate estimates of real-time employment trends. At the beginning of each month, ADP publishes  the National Employment Report, which is built on a reference week that includes the 12th day of the month. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.