A busy week lies ahead with several key economic events on the calendar, but Monday begins quietly, with no significant releases. On Tuesday, the main focus will be the RBA’s monetary policy announcement and the ADP employment change and JOLTS job openings data in the U.S. BoJ Governor Ueda will take part in a moderated discussion on inflation, interest rates, financial stability and the yen’s external value at the Financial Times Global Boardroom Conference in London. Wednesday will bring the BoC’s monetary policy announcement, followed by the highly anticipated FOMC meeting in the U.S. On Thursday, Australia will release its employment change and unemployment rate, Switzerland will announce its SNB monetary policy decision, and the U.S. will publish its weekly unemployment claims. Closing the week on Friday, the U.K. will release its GDP m/m figures. At this week’s meeting, the RBA is expected to keep rates unchanged. Recent data suggests the economy is beginning to gain momentum, as reflected in the Q3 National Accounts. While the monthly CPI came in above expectations, Westpac analysts note that the strongest price increases were concentrated in sectors heavily influenced by government policy rather than market forces, highlighting ongoing structural drivers of inflation. For now, the Bank will continue monitoring incoming data before determining the next steps for monetary policy. Expectations are that inflationary pressures will moderate next year, opening the door for the RBA to deliver two 25 bps rate cuts. This week brings the JOLTS data for both September and October, which should shed more light on the softening U.S. labor market. The consensus for the October release is 7.14M job openings. Markets will be focused on key indicators such as the job-openings-to-unemployment ratio and the quit rate. Wells Fargo analysts note that the openings-to-unemployed ratio fell below 1.0 in August, and a further decline would signal a growing imbalance between labor demand and supply. Meanwhile, the quit rate has held steady at 1.9% throughout the year, but a meaningful drop would suggest workers are becoming more cautious in response to a weakening labor environment. At this week’s meeting, the BoC is expected to keep rates on hold after delivering two consecutive cuts in September and October. Since then, Canadian economic data has pointed to a recovery. GDP has exceeded expectations, and the labor market has stabilized, with employment rising by 54,000 in November and the unemployment rate falling from 7.1% to 6.5%. The recent rate cuts have also supported household spending. Inflation, however, remains above the Bank's 2% target, and there could be some upward pressure next year due to both consumer and government spending. Even so, markets do not expect further rate cuts in 2026. At this week’s FOMC meeting, a 25 bps rate cut is likely, though given the recent divisions within the Fed, it could be a close call. Inflation remains a concern in the U.S., particularly due to tariff-related price increases. However, signs of softening in the labor market tilt the odds toward a rate cut, an outlook echoed by several influential policymakers. The Fed will also release its updated economic forecasts. Some analysts expect the projections to show just one additional rate cut in 2026, while market pricing currently anticipates two to three rate cuts next year. Markets are also closely watching the possibility of a new Fed chair nomination in 2026. If the White House selects a widely expected candidate such as Kevin Hassett, investor focus could shift from worrying that the Fed is being too slow to cut rates to fearing that it might ease policy too aggressively. This would introduce an additional layer of uncertainty to early-year monetary policy expectations. In Australia, the consensus for employment change is 20.3K, down from 42.2K previously, and the unemployment rate is expected to edge up from 4.3% to 4.4%. Although October’s employment data exceeded expectations, Westpac analysts note that the three-month trend in job creation has slowed to roughly 1.5% annualized, which is about half a percentage point weaker than earlier in the year. The Q3 Labour Account also highlights a shift beneath the surface: Industries that expanded rapidly during the care-sector hiring boom are now normalizing, while market-oriented sectors are gradually regaining momentum. Labour demand strengthened while labour supply held steady, with the participation rate unchanged at 67.0%. The unemployment rate fell last month from 4.5% to 4.3%, but signs suggest it is still drifting gradually higher. Much of the recent month-to-month volatility is coming from younger workers, whose unemployment rate has swung sharply and has tended to lead the gradual rise now becoming visible in the broader adult workforce. For this week’s meeting, the SNB is expected to keep rates unchanged. Inflation in Switzerland has fallen more than expected, but for now it is unlikely that the Bank will respond by easing policy. Inflation is expected to hover around zero for some time, and the SNB could cut rates by 25 bps to –0.25% in March next year, returning to negative interest rates as inflation dynamics become a growing concern. However, such a move would require a higher threshold and will come only if other options have been exhausted.In the U.K. manufacturing output decreased in September on the heels of the major cyberattack that caused Jaguar Land Rover to halt production for several weeks. This has since been resolved and October GDP is expected to show a modest improvement of 0.1% compared to -0.1% the previous month. This article was written by Gina Constantin at investinglive.com.

Eurostoxx -0.03%Germany DAX -0.11%France CAC 40 -0.07%UK FTSE +0.17%Spain IBEX -0.28%Italy FTSE MIB -0.03These are very small changes and they are already getting pared. Earlier in the session, we got a Bloomberg article on ECB's Schnabel recent remarks in which she said that she was comfortable with bets that the next move could be a rate hike. That might have weighed a bit on the sentiment, but in the end they will decide based on the data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior -37This is not a market moving release. This index has been deeply in the negative since 2022, although it rebounded from the trough made in October 2023 at -52.5. The SNB meanwhile is not expected to do anything in terms of monetary policy. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +1.3%Industrial production Y/Y +0.8% vs -1.0% priorThis is not a market-moving release but it's a nice beat on estimates and another confirmation of a pick up in economic activity. Industrial production has been recovering from the May 2024 trough at -7.7% and it's now back into positive territory.ECB's Schnabel has been mentioning the possibility of a rate hike in 2026. If things keep improving and inflationary pressures intensify, we might indeed see a rate hike in 2026, and potentially from other central banks too. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Comfortable with bets that next move will be a rate hikeBarring shocks, interest rates are at appropriate levelsThe economy has been much more resilient than could have been expectedECB can tolerate moderate deviations from the targetWhat matters is the overall macroeconomic narrativeInflation is in good place Services inflation remains the most important challengeWe have to monitor whether our policy becomes more accomodative over time, and potentially too accomodativeBloomber with the report. Schnabel generally leans on the hawkish side and she was one of the first members saying that rate hikes could come earlier than people expected.Schnabel notes that "the decline in core inflation has stalled at a time when the economy is recovering, the output gap is closing and fiscal policy is expanding, all of which would tend to be inflationary". This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

EUR/USD1.1800 (EUR 1.99 bn)1.1650 (EUR 976.48 mn)1.1575 (EUR 892.51 mn)USD/JPY156.00 (US$ 1.67 bn)155.00 (US$ 1.73 bn)153.00 (US$ 778.82 mn)GBP/USD1.3500 (GBP 500.00 mn)1.3050 (GBP 740.00 mn)USD/CHF0.8020 (US$ 180.00 mn)0.7975 (US$ 100.00 mn)USD/CAD1.3940 (US$ 1.12 bn)AUD/USD0.6665 (AUD 301.57 mn)0.6595 (AUD 400.22 mn)0.6475 (AUD 864.67 mn)NZD/USD0.5730 (NZD 926.14 mn)EUR/GBP0.8845 (EUR 200.11 mn)0.8590 (EUR 175.00 mn)Justin prepared a weekly overview before leaving for the holidays here. For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Concerned about FX movesImportant for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentalsWill take appropriate action on FX if necessaryThe market got used to these kind of comments by now. I guess the lack of meaningful JPY strength despite an upcoming BoJ rate hike is making them even more concerned. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

In the European session, we just have a couple of low tier releases like the German industrial production and the Swiss consumer confidence. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks. In the American session, we only get the US consumer inflation expectations data from the NY Fed. After the upward spike seen in April, inflation expectations have been rolling over across all the major surveys (UMich, Conference Board and NY Fed). Central bank speakers:15:00 GMT/10:00 ET - ECB's Cipollone (neutral - voter)15:30 GMT/10:30 ET - BoE's Taylor (dovish - voter)17:00 GMT/12:00 ET - ECB's Villeroy (dovish - voter)18:30 GMT/13:00 ET - BoE's Lombardelli (hawkish - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Japan Q3 GDP revised -2.3% annualized vs -2.0% expectedWhat's the big contrarian trade for 2026? Commodities according to BofAChina posts another massive trade surplusIBM nears deal to buy Confluent at below the IPO priceMacron threatens tariffs on China "in the coming months" due to trade surplusesJapan October current account +2833b vs +3109B expectedTrump on restarting trade talks with Canada: We'll work it outJapan October labor cash earnings +2.6% vs +2.2% priorMarkets:Gold up $13 to $4209US 10-year yields flat at 4.13%WTI crude oil up 12-cents to $60.20S&P 500 futures up 0.2%JPY leads, CAD lagsThe US dollar was generally softer to start the week after Friday's strength. The yen was stronger despite the softer GDP data as the market begins to zero in on a BOJ hike next week. The moves overall for far are soft.The headline on Macron and China probably didn't get as much attention as it deserves, maybe because the market sees it as a hollow threat given the internal politics of the EU. Trump was fairly positive on Canada but there was little movement in CAD, similarly to when he broke off talks.Gold is sold to begin the week while bitcoin has traded in a wide range already from $89-92K. It's rebounded towards the top of that range after some selling as Asian markets opened. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Gold prices are up 60% year to date and Bank of America's Michael Hartnett is out with a bold call on hard assets, tagging energy as the ultimate contrarian play.Hartnett, the Chief Investment Strategist at BofA, is looking past the current tech euphoria and digging into the beaten-down sectors. In his latest note, he argues that the macro backdrop is shifting in favor of commodities.He believes the Trump administration’s economic policy will continue to press the economy to run economy hot. He labels the "despised oil/energy" sector as the best contrarian trade for 2026.A 60% rally in oil prices in 2026 would take WTI to $96 per barrel. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The trade war isn't hurting China as it posted another massive trade surplus in November, one of its largest ever.Surplus of USD 111.68 billion vs $90.7 billion priorUSD denominated Nov imports +1.9%USD denominated Nov exports +5.9% Nov rare earth exports 5494 tonnes vs 4343 tonnes in OctYear through Nov surplus of 7708 billion yuanThese are astonishing numbers given the trade war. China is steamrolling the global competition for exports. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Shareholders of Confluent ($CFLT) might be about to have a great start to the week, though it's a sad end or the highly-touted IPO.The WSJ reports that IBM is near an $11 billion deal to buy the company. On Friday, shares closed at $23.14 with a market cap of $8 billion. That would imply a 37% premium or $31.70 per share.Shares are currently trading $28.60 after hours, up about 22%. It's not clear if the deal accounts for the $800m in net cash on Confluent's balance sheet so the ultimate per-share value could be lower to account for that."A deal could be announced as soon as Monday, the people said, cautioning that the talks could still fall apart," the WSJ writes.However, given the tone of this report, I'd wager a very high chance of a deal. For the bigger picture, Confluent acts as a central nervous system for companies, allowing their different software and apps to share data instantly as events happen. Instead of waiting for daily reports or overnight updates, Confluent connects everything in real-time—so when you buy a plane ticket, your bank, the airline app, and the ticket inventory update simultaneously and the banking software can communicate.Despite the win on Monday, this is a long-term loser for shares of CFLT. The IPO price was $36 in 2021 and rose as high as $94.97 in the following months. It traded above $30 as recently as February.Over the past four quarters, the company has posted about $1 billion in revenue but also a GAAP loss, and I'm not sure shareholders of IBM will like that. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Gold is up $14.40 to $4210 in early Asian trading to start the week. The main driver of gold this week will be the FOMC decision and how dovish/hawkish the messages from Powell are and the dots. A cut is all-but assured.Zooming out, the last week of low gold volatility is a real outlier over the past few months. We've been stuck close to $4200 and that can't last. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Will not extend electricity rebatesDecision on Austal is imminentThe electricity comment is inflationary and the RBA should look through it but there are inflationary pressures building in 2026 and a rate hike late in the year is increasingly the base case This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

In an interview on Sunday published by Los Echos, French President Emmanuel Macron hinted at a US-style trade war on China.He said he spoke with Chinese officials and warned them what's coming."I told them that if they do not react, we Europeans would be forced, in the coming months, to take strong measures following the example of the United States, such as imposing tariffs on Chinese products," he said.The 'coming months' part is particularly notable, though it's unclear what strings the EU could pull."I tried to explain to the Chinese that their trade surplus is unsustainable because they are killing their own customers, particularly by no longer importing much from us," Macron said.I've written about this before but the US might not have been just a gamechanger for US-global relations but with how the rest of the world interacts with each other. We may frequently see larger countries try to squeeze smaller trading partners, or -- in this case -- trading giants collide. The EU's goods trade deficit with China has ballooned by nearly 60% since 2019 and China is coming after the European auto market.The thing is, Europe immediately rolled over on US tariffs so it's not exactly projecting a backbone. The fragmentation of the eurozone also makes it extremely difficult to project a united front. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Good on anyone who sniffed out the Warner Brothers sale last year as it's been better than a 3x trade.The upside is now limited to $27.75 per shares, which is what Netflix bid as part of the $72 billion equity deal plus debt. It's a huge bid in a tough industry as Netflix tries to put its stamp on traditional media.The downside in WBD is now considerable as Trump weighed in on potential anti-trust questions.“I’ll be involved in that decision," Trump said Sunday.“They have a very big market share,” Trump said. “And when they have Warner Brothers, that share goes up a lot.”Keep in mind that Trump is not friendly with Netflix founder Reid Hastings. For years, Hastings positioned himself as one of Trump's most prominent corporate critics. He donated $7 million to a pro-Kamala Harris Super PAC and was a leading voice pressuring Joe Biden to step down to make way for a stronger candidate against Trump.Since the election though, he has gone quiet but Trump surely hasn't forgotten which side he was on. I don't see any reason to chase a 6% merger arb here with an indeterminate timeline. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Late last week, I spoke with Dale Pinkert at Forex Analytix about markets. The prior time I spoke with in early Sept, I pushed hard on the idea that gold was going to run and it certainly did. As we head into year-end, the setup for 2026 is getting fascinating.We covered a massive amount of ground in this one—from the "chaos trade" in D.C. to why I’m looking at some unloved sectors right now.Here are a few highlights from our chat:Silver is waking up: Gold has had a great run, but Silver is finally making new highs. Retail is getting involved, and the industrial/AI demand case is becoming undeniable.The Supreme Court "Game Changer": Everyone is focused on the Fed, but I told Dale the biggest macro event of early 2026 might be the Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs. If they block the President's ability to impose them unilaterally, we could see a massive move in bonds and the dollar.Is the AI Trade getting tired? I love the tech rally, but betting on Nvidia to maintain 80% profit margins forever is a bet against capitalism. The chart is looking a little "toppy," and a rotation might be due.My Contrarian Pick (Airlines): I know, I know—it's the sector everyone loves to hate. But between loyalty programs acting like cash annuities, Boomers traveling non-stop, and valuations at 4x earnings, the risk/reward in names like $JETS is too good to ignore.The "Pain Trade": Despite all the dysfunction and noise, the economy just keeps chugging along at 2%. What is it, listen to find out. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prelim was -1.8%Prior was +2.3% q/qGDP q/q -0.6% vs -0.5% expectedq/q private consumption +0.2% vs +0.1% prelimExternal demand -0.2% vs -0.2% prelim This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +4483B This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump and Carney were at the World Cup draw on Friday and were cordial."They're very tough traders but I have a very good relationship with the prime minster and with Canada," he said."We'll see — the problem is that Canada makes a lot of things we don't need because we make them also, but we'll work it out. Canada is a special place and they are really good at ice hockey, aren't they?" This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.