Here is the latest from Trump:We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran: (1) Completely degrading Iranian Missile Capability, Launchers, and everything else pertaining to them. (2) Destroying Iran’s Defense Industrial Base. (3) Eliminating their Navy and Air Force, including Anti Aircraft Weaponry. (4) Never allowing Iran to get even close to Nuclear Capability, and always being in a position where the U.S.A. can quickly and powerfully react to such a situation, should it take place. (5) Protecting, at the highest level, our Middle Eastern Allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and others. The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not! If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMPNotably, this came out after the market closed. In the past three weeks, he's escalated things immediately after the market closed. This time, he's de-escalating or at least indicating that he could leave.What he's hinting at here is a strategy that many have speculated about, including us. He will simply declare 'mission accomplished' and leave the mess for everyone else to clean up.He said the Strait will "need to be guarded and policed... by other nations who use it", ruling out the USA. He did say the US will help if asked but I imagine that would come at a high price. He also has pivoted from saying that securing the Strait will be easy for the US (this morning) to that it will be "easy ... for them".Regardless of the politics, this post significantly diminishes the chance of a US land invasion or a protracted war. It sounds like Trump is planning to bail out and leave Iran's regime in place. Now we will have to wait to see what the plan is from Iran and Gulf countries. I can see Iran demanding that those countries close US bases. In any case, there is a statement from Europe, Japan, Canada and Bahrain saying they're willing to join efforts for Hormuz safe passage. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump says reopening Hormuz "a simple military manoeuver" with "so little risk"US made detailed preparations for potential ground troops in Iran - reportUS assessment: Iran could keep Hormuz shut for anywhere from one to six monthsIran unwilling to discuss Hormuz while under attack - reportCanada January retail sales +1.1% vs +1.5% expectedCanada February producer price index +0.4% m/m vs +1.1% expectedFeds Waller: If oil stays high for months on end, at some point it bleeds into inflationFed's Bowman: I am still concerned about the jobs marketThe Fed funds futures market is now pricing in a 30% chance of a US rate hikeTrump reportedly mulls occupying Kharg Island to force Iran to reopen Strait of HormuzMarkets:Gold down $143 to $4502US 10-year yields up 10 bps to 4.39%Silver down 6.7%Bitcoin down 0.8%WTI crude oil up $2.60 to $98.09S&P 500 down 1.7%I'm not sure if we're at maximum fear yet but we are close. There was nowhere to hide on Friday as the market increasingly feared a weekend escalation, or worse, saw signs of a quagmire. In the US morning, Trump called NATO allies cowards and said it will be "so easy" to reopen Hormuz and just before the market close, eh said "you need a lot of help" to reopen it. That kind of talk has the market increasingly believe there is no real plan here and that Trump expected Iran to surrender.Instead, Iran is insisting on a ceasefire before even talking about opening Hormuz while Trump has rejected that.It was a bloodbath throughout markets as oil was the oil place to hide. Bonds were beaten up again as the market now sees a 30% chance of a Fed hike this year as one-year implied inflation rates rose to 5.3%.Naturally, stocks fell with global markets down 2-3% and both the Nasdaq and Russell now down 10% from their hights, a technical correction. The S&P 500 is in its worst four-week loss since the period ending April 18. It was also the worst day in a month.Gold was caught in the crossfire in the third day of heavy selling. It fell below $4500 for the first time since early February and silver was battered. Both were set to close near the lows.In the FX market, the US dollar re-asserted itself and recouped some of the decline from yesterday. It was particularly strong in USD/JPY where Japan looks increasingly vulnerable to an inflationary shock from energy prices. If there's any silver lining, it's that sentiment is extremely bad with every commentator talking about oil-maggedon and a protracted closure of Hormuz. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The declines in the major indices were symmetrically worse going from the Dow, to the S&P to the Nasdaq. Rounding, the Dow fell -1.00%, the S&P fell -1.50%, and the Nasdaq fell by -2.00%. All three indices also closed below its 200 day MA this week. The Dow 200 day MA is at 46562. The index closed at 45577.47The S&P 200 day MA is at 6621.73. The index closed at 6506.48The Nasdaq 200 day MA is at 22248.94. The index closed at 21647.61For the trading week: Dow fell -2.11%S&P fell -1.90%Nasdaq fell -2.07%Super Micro Computer tumbled on the back of charges from the Justice Department of smuggling Nvidia chips to China. From the gainers oil is higher by 2.8% and so are oil stocks led by Occidental, Exxon . This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

At a certain point, the Strait will open itselfI think Israel will be ready to end the war when the US wants it to endI don't want to do a ceasefireWe can have dialogue but I don't want to do a ceasefireOn Hormuz: It would be nice if China and Japan got involvedOn UK help: A very late response, they should have acted fasterSays lacks radar, aircraft, and leadership, with a firm stance against a ceasefireWe have unlimited ammunition and a lot of troopsOn oil prices, Trump said he expected worseRepeats that operation is "weeks ahead" of scheduleWe don't need to Strait of HormuzSo the context of the ceasefire comment is that Iran said it won't negotiate without a ceasefire while Trump is saying they can "have dialogue" but that he doesn't want a ceasefire.So, basically, they can't even agree on the terms for talking."We can have dialogue, but I don't want to do a ceasefire," Trump says about Iran. "You don't do a ceasefire when you're literally obliterating the other side."Trump still seems to be aiming for an unconditional surrender. We'll see. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The market is sensing that energy prices will stay higher for longer as the US and Israel struggle to define a plan for peace and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.Trump today in a Truth Social post said it would be easy to re-open the strait and that the US was prepared to do it alone. The market doesn't believe it as Brent crude oil is now up $4 to $112.68. There is also a crunch in natural gas, fertilizer, sulpher and other goods that normally flow from the area.With that, US 12-month inflation breakevens are now up to 5.3%. That's a potentially crushing number of the US economy as it would almost certainly force the Fed to hike rates.That's the highest level since March 2023 and comes in stark contrast to the disinflationary impulses we saw in December.It truly looked like the Fed was on its way to conquering inflation and now that's all come undone. Earlier today, we got comments from Fed Governors Waller and Bowman that sounded like they were throwing in the towel on rate cuts, at least if the current energy regime continues. A year of +5% inflation would be badly damaging to the Fed's credibility as they haven't achieved their target at any point this decade.In terms of the Fed curve, there are now 7 bps of hikes priced in through December. That's a dramatic reversal from in February when pricing was for 60 bps of easing in that time frame. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

As we head into the close, the major US stock indices are pressing to new lows for the day and the week, with downside momentum building. The S&P 500 is down nearly 1.5%, while the NASDAQ has extended losses to around -2.0%, reflecting broad-based selling pressure.This week marks an important technical shift, as both indices have now moved below their 200-day moving averages (Green line on the chart below) for the first time since May 2025. That break weakens the longer-term bullish bias and suggests that sellers are gaining firmer control.Focusing on the S&P 500, the index has now extended below the November low at 6521.92, taking out a key support level. With that break, the chart opens up, and there is limited support until the 6352 level, followed by a deeper target near 6212. Beyond that, the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the April 2025 low comes in at 6174.39, which represents a more significant correction zone.If the price were to extend toward that retracement level, it would imply a decline of roughly 11.6% from the all-time high reached in January, highlighting the potential magnitude of the current correction if downside momentum persists.Looking back to 2025, the move down from the February high to the April low took the price down -21.4%. For the trading week, the S&P index is down -1.86%.Likewise, the NASDAQ index has seen its technical tone shift more decisively to the downside. The index moved and closed back below its 200-day moving average on Wednesday, and since then, downside momentum has continued to build through both yesterday’s and today’s sessions.The decline has now pushed the price below a key swing area between 21,641 and 21,803, increasing the bearish bias. Currently trading near 21,640, down about -2.04% on the day, the break of that support zone suggests sellers are maintaining control.Looking ahead, the next downside target comes in between 20,905 and 21,033, which represents the next meaningful support region. A move below that zone would shift focus toward the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the April 2025 low, which comes in near 20,491.86.A decline to that level would represent roughly a -14.6% drop from the all-time high, underscoring the scope of the current correction if momentum continues lower. For context, the prior trend move from the February 2025 high to the April 2025 low saw a much steeper decline of about -26.5%, highlighting that while the current move is significant, it has not yet reached the magnitude of previous corrections.For the trading week, the NASDAQ index is down -2.04%.War in Iran is about to enter its 4th week. Although Trump and the US insist the plan is ahead of schedule, there are still changes to the plan including taking over Kharg Island which suggests boots on the ground and an end to the war weeks - if not months away. Moreover, strategic targets could be under attack by Iran and any hits, could require years of rebuilding and threatens the supply/demand for oil globallyCrude oil is currently trading at $98.60, after a volatile week which saw the low price extend down to $91.45, and the high price reach $102.44. For the week the price is little changed. Recall last week, the high price reached all the way up to $119.48 before closing the week near $99.30 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Pentagon officials have made detailed preparations for deploying US ground forces into Iran, according to a CBS report.The report says Trump is deliberating whether to position ground forces in the region."No, I'm not putting troops anywhere," Trump said yesterday but quickly added: "If I were, I certainly wouldn't tell you."I wonder why this was leaked. I tend to think it might be something to bring Iran to the negotiating table but it could also be from those who think sending troops to the Middle East is a grave mistake.Finally, it could all be part of the usual planning and options that all military officials are constantly doing. So far, the reports we have are that two units of Marines have been deployed, with about 2200 soldiers each. The first should arrive in the theatre from Japan on Sunday or early next week while the second is roughly three weeks away as it sails from California.However if you break those units down, most would be in support rose with around 200 commandos and perhaps 700-900 possible ground combatants with a few hundred more ground-capable troops.In contrast, there were a half-million soldiers involved in Desert Storm and an initial force of 150,000 soldiers in the 2003 Iraq invasion. Iran is 3.5x larger, much more mountainous and around 3.5x more populous. There's also no natural place from which to stage an invasion as the mountains protect the border with Iraq.In any case, the market doesn't like where this is all headed and brent is now up $4 to $112 from as low as $105.05 earlier. The S&P 500 is down 1.4% and the Nasdaq down 2%. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

CNN is out with a report highlighting the difficulty of reopening the Strait of Hormuz:US officials are furiously trying to avert a potential months-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz, privately acknowledging that reopening the key waterway is a problem without a clear solutionThe report from the Defense Intelligence Agency said it could remain shut from 1-6 months, citing four sources familiar.An official pushed back against the six-month scenario, saying: the six month closure of the Strait of Hormuz is an impossibility and completely unacceptable to the Secretary of WarOil is higher on this report but it's notable that this assessment isn't current, it was said to be circulating "in recent weeks" which suggests it was prepared before the war and wouldn't necessarily reflect damage since or indications of Iranian capabilities.I found this detail to be particularly challenging from a logistics standpoint:Escort missions through the strait would require several destroyers per tankerBefore the war, there were 40-50 tankers a day normally plus twice as many cargo ships. That sounds...difficult, particularly given that a full passage of the strait takes about 40 hours. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

A Bloomberg report citing an Iranian official says that Iran is sticking to its hardline position on the Strait of Hormuz and unwilling to discuss opening it while it's under attack.The report says:Iranian officials have become reluctant to even discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz as they focus on surviving the US-Israeli onslaught, according to a person involved in direct, high-level contacts with Tehran.It looks like early next week, we will have some kind of showdown between the US navy and Iran's soldiers near the strait. How that unfolds is uncertain because President Trump confirmed there are no plans to send troops to any place. Of course, truth is the first casualty of war and this whole thing started while peace discussions were ongoing."Officials are losing confidence that the US and Israel have an exit plan and see deeper economic disruptions ahead," the report says.May WTI crude was as low as $92.47 earlier today but it's risen more than $5 on growing expectations that Trump will blow beyond the 4-5 week timeline he set for the war.The S&P 500 remains within today's range and is down 0.8%.Despite what Trump is saying about ground troops, all indications are that next week, Marines will be tasked with taking over Kharg Island and holding it hostage in order to get Iran to open up the Strait. As it stands, Iran is the only country that's using the Strait and that's providing them enhanced revenues while depriving the rest of the world of either oil or oil sales.The US may try to flip that and allow Gulf states to export while Iran is locked out. Military experts say that may be difficult given that Iran has 1000 miles of coast from which to attack tankers sailing through, along with drones that can be launched from inland. It will be particularly tough for the US to protect ships if it refuses to put an troops on shore. At this point, you have to hope that Trump is getting a sober assessment of the situation but what nags at me is that it's entirely in Russia's interest to keep this war going as long as possible.Finally the report says this:At the outset of the war, Iran told regional intermediaries that it was willing to discuss a truce if it had guarantees there will be no further attacks on the country.That possibility now seems elusive.Not a great look. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD opened near the highs from earlier this month at 1.3752, but upside momentum stalled when the price failed to extend above yesterday’s high at 1.37476. That failure prompted buyers to turn to sellers, pushing the pair lower in early trading.On the downside, the 100-hour moving average (currently near 1.37086) once again became the key focus. This level has been well-defined support over the past few sessions. Yesterday, the price tested the moving average on two separate occasions and found willing buyers both times. Similarly, on Wednesday, multiple dips into the level were met with buying interest, reinforcing its importance as a short-term floor.In today’s trade, the first test of the 100-hour moving average held initially, but sellers were able to push the price below the level toward 1.3707, extending to a session low of 1.3700. However, downside momentum could not be sustained. As selling pressure faded, the price rotated back higher, and once it moved back above the 100-hour moving average, short sellers were forced to cover on the failed break. That shift helped drive the price back up toward a retest of yesterday’s high at 1.37476.Once again, that level attracted sellers. The inability to break higher kept the range intact, and the price has since rotated back to the downside, with the pair now trading back toward the 100-hour moving average, which remains the key pivot point for traders.The technical story remains largely unchanged from yesterday. The 100-hour moving average continues to define near-term bias. A break below that level should open the door for further downside momentum, with targets at 1.3700, followed by the Wednesday swing low at 1.3687, and then the rising 200-hour moving average near 1.36675. Conversely, if buyers once again defend the 100-hour moving average and push the price higher, traders will look toward resistance at 1.3724, followed by yesterday’s high at 1.3747, and the monthly high at 1.3752.In short, the market remains range-bound, with buyers defending support and sellers capping the highs. The next break—either below the 100 hour MA or the highs for the month, will be eyed for further momentum in the direction of the break. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The price of gold is under notable pressure today, falling sharply by about $90, or -1.93%, to trade near the $4565 level. That decline has pushed the price back below its 100-day moving average at $4582.44—a key technical level that has served as an important barometer for trend direction over the past several months.Looking back to yesterday’s price action, gold also dipped below that same 100-day moving average but managed to recover into the close. That late-session rebound helped the metal avoid its first daily close below the 100-day moving average since December 2024, reinforcing the idea that buyers were still willing to defend that level. However, today’s renewed break—and the inability (so far) to reclaim it—suggests that downside momentum may be starting to build, with sellers gaining more control in the near term.From a technical perspective, staying below the 100-day moving average (close risk now) keeps the bias tilted to the downside. If the price cannot quickly move back above that level, traders will begin to look toward lower support zones for the next targets. The next key area comes in near the $4400 region, which represents an important psychological level as well as a zone of prior price interaction.More specifically, the 50% midpoint of the move higher from the last major test of the 100-day moving average back in August 2025 comes in at $4433. That level adds a layer of technical significance within the broader $4400 area. Just below that, a swing low from late January sits near $4395, which also aligns with prior swing highs going back to October—creating a cluster of support that traders will be watching closely.In short, the break below the 100-day moving average shifts the near-term focus to the downside, with the $4433 to $4395 area representing a key support zone. Holding above that region could stabilize the market and invite buyers back in, but a sustained move below would likely open the door for a deeper correction as bearish momentum builds. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Why is it always the meme stocks where they find the fraud? Supermicro shares are getting absolutely destroyed on Friday, down 27% and hitting fresh 52-week lows after federal prosecutors unsealed an indictment charging three company associates — including co-founder Wally Liaw — with smuggling $2.5 billion in Nvidia-powered AI servers to China.The stock is trading around $24, well below every major moving average, and the chart is a disaster after once trading as a meme stock.What's remarkable here is the sheer brazenness of the alleged scheme. According to the indictment, the defendants used a Southeast Asian middleman to create fake end-user documentation, staged "dummy" servers for compliance inspectors, and even arranged for a "friendly" auditor to handle reviews. When someone sent Liaw a news link about Chinese nationals being arrested for chip smuggling, he allegedly responded with sobbing emojis. YThe company is quick to point out SMCI itself isn't named as a defendant and it's placed the employees on leave. But the market doesn't care about that distinction right now, and frankly, it shouldn't. This is a company that already settled SEC fraud charges in 2020, lost its auditor Ernst & Young in 2024 amid the Hindenburg short report, and has spent the better part of two years lurching from one governance crisis to the next.The real question for traders is whether this is the kind of washout that eventually creates opportunity, or whether the compliance risk now becomes an existential overhang. Dell is already getting bid up 5% today as the rotation trade into the "clean" AI server play gains momentum.The AI server demand story is real, but the governance discount on SMCI just got a whole lot wider. When the market gets a sniff of fraud, it's a 'no go' zone for real money. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USD 10 year yield is trading up to 4.407%. That is the highest level going back to August 1, 2025.. The yield is up over 10 basis points this week. Yields are up around 45 basis points since low of 3.926% on March 2.The move higher has the US dollar moving to the upside.USDJPY: The USDJPY has now moved above the 100 and 200 hour moving averages near 158.90 and 158.96 . The price is testing the underside of the broken trendline at session highs near 159.17. Move above that level and the price is back within the channel after the break and run lower yesterday. Close risk is now a move back below the 158.90 level for buyers looking for more upside.EURUSD: The EURUSD moves moved to new lows and in doing so is testing the 200 hour MA at 1.15277 and the 100 hour MA at 1.1517. The low just stalled in between those levels at 1.1526. Risk is now a move back above 1.15549 for sellers looking for more downside but getting below the 100 hour MA and staying below is needed to increase the bears control. Bias lower but overall sentiment is neutral above the MAs. GBPUSD: The GBPUSD is continuing the retracement of the move higher yesterday and in doing so, is back below the 200 and 100 hour MAs at 1.33478 and 1.33367 respectively Those levels are now risk defining levels for sellers looking for more downside momentum. The price is testing a swing area between 1.3296 to 1.33058. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Today's stock market heatmap paints a vivid picture of a market grappling with varied performance across different sectors. Let's delve into the dynamics shaping the trading landscape today.? Technology Sector Faces HeadwindsThe technology sector is currently under significant pressure, marked by notable declines. Microsoft (MSFT) is down 0.91%, while Oracle (ORCL) has taken a sharper fall, dropping by 3.36%. Meanwhile, Semiconductor giants like Nvidia (NVDA) and Micron Technology (MU) are also experiencing decreases of 1.48% and 2.71%, respectively. This downturn is indicative of broader concerns within the tech space, possibly linked to factors such as fluctuating demand and regulatory scrutiny.⚡ Energy Sector Gains TractionIn contrast, the energy sector is displaying strength. ExxonMobil (XOM) has risen by 1.01%, and Chevron (CVX) is up 0.65%. This sector's positive movement may be fueled by increased oil prices and optimistic forecasts surrounding energy demand, offering investors a safe haven amid the tech downturn.? Financial Sector: A Mixed BagLooking at the financial sector, we see a somewhat mixed performance. While JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is showing a minor dip of 0.33%, Wells Fargo (WFC) manages to edge up by 1.18%. This varied performance suggests differing investor sentiment regarding interest rate expectations and economic outlook.? Health and Consumer Defensive SectorsWithin healthcare, Eli Lilly (LLY) remains relatively stable with a slight decrease of 0.05%, while Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) drops by 0.64%. Meanwhile, consumer defensive giant Coca-Cola (KO) sees a marginal dip of 0.42%, indicating cautious consumer sentiment or strategic repositioning by investors.? Overall Market AnalysisThe bearish signals from the tech sector are highlighting investor caution, with potential overvaluations and macroeconomic factors possibly contributing to the sector's retreat.The energy sector's robust performance suggests a positive outlook for industries aligned with raw materials and essential commodities.Investors are encouraged to diversify their portfolios, enhancing exposure to sectors like energy that exhibit positive momentum. Meanwhile, tech investments should be approached cautiously, accounting for volatility and potential shifts in market sentiment. Stay updated with InvestingLive.com for real-time insights and strategic advice as markets continue to evolve ?. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

One of the ideas that's been floating around markets is that Trump just wanted to dramatically degrade Iran's military, it's nuclear program and its ability to make missiles. Once that was done, he would declare victory and leave it to Europe and gulf states on how to open the Strait of Hormuz. It was never clear if Iran would have accepted that but it was a possibility they would say "ok, enough, we'll live to fight another day."Now, it looks like that's off the table and instead Trump has committed the US military to reopen Hormuz, with little help from allies. He said it would be easy but markets aren't so sure, and it also could be time consuming. Trump called it "a simple military maneuver" with "so little risk".If that's true, it's good news but the market isn't so sure. There are various reports today that the US is deploying more marines and ships to the area. Seven days ago, Trump ordered +2500 marines to transit from Japan to the Gulf and that force will presumably be used to take Hormuz as it includes the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli. It's not clear where it is now but this was from a report today:The USS Tripoli is currently moving through the Indian Ocean and was recently spotted south of Sri Lanka. The warship is heading toward the North Arabian Sea and is expected to reach the broader Middle East theatre around March 22–23.It's not clear if there will have to be some staging and coordination after it arrives. That likely stretches the timeline for a landing into next week in any case.The think from the Trump administration appears to be that by taking Kharg Island, which much of Iran's oil is loaded, they will force Iran to capitulate. A report from today:The Trump administration is considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran's Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, four sources with knowledge of the issue tell Axios.That report also lengthened the timeline of the war: "We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, take the island and then get them by the balls and use it for negotiations," a source with knowledge of the White House thinking said.Trump started out saying 4-5 weeks and repeatedly said they were ahead of schedule. Next week will be Week 4 and this would certainly lengthen the timeline.In short, what the market is seeing right now is a lengthening of the timeline of the war. That has the S&P 500 down 0.9% and near the lows of the day. European stocks are struggling even more with the DAX down 1%. The image of the DAX isn't a pretty picture. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Oft times, there are implications to actions. The Trump administration tends to look to solve problems with laser focus that goes above and beyond without thinking of the consequences. The ICE/deportation implementation is an example. That is being clawed back.The War against Iran is another major situation. Who knows what they thought how everything was going to work out - they will never tell the truth. What we do know is the pattern is that solving "the problems" (parenthetical) tend to create more problems. Trump is now imploring Congress to pass the FARM BILL, NOW! Why? Fertilizer prices are rising due to the war in Iran as supply disruptions, higher energy costs, and shipping constraints hit the market simultaneously. The Middle East is a key supplier of fertilizers, and tensions—particularly around the Strait of Hormuz—are restricting exports and delaying shipments. At the same time, fertilizer production is heavily dependent on natural gas, so rising energy prices are pushing input costs higher.This is occurring just as global planting demand is ramping up, creating a classic supply-demand squeeze that is driving fertilizer prices sharply higher. As a result, some farmers are already considering reducing corn acreage due to higher input costs.That has important downstream effects: less corn supply can lead to higher feed costs for cattle, which in turn pushes beef prices higher. Ultimately, this becomes a second-round inflation story, where higher fertilizer costs ripple through to food prices and broader inflation pressures.Of course prices at the gas pump are going higher and higher. The AAA average price is at $3.88. That is up from $2.934 last month. The price of a gallon at the end of the Biden administration was at $3.11. The price of oil was at $76.50. The White House has been vocal about wanting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but that outcome looks increasingly unlikely with inflation moving in the wrong direction. Even Christopher Waller — one of the Fed's most reliably dovish voices — voted to hold rates steady at Wednesday's meeting, and made clear this morning that he is firmly in wait-and-see mode. Waller warned that if elevated oil prices persist, the knock-on effects rippling through the costs of goods and services could push inflation from a temporary nuisance into something more entrenched and non-transitory. The one silver lining he offered: inflation expectations among consumers and markets are still holding steady. But with the underlying pressures unresolved, a rate cut remains a distant prospect — and the gap between what the administration wants and what the Fed is willing to deliver keeps widening. Yesterday we learned that the Trump administration is asking for $200B for the war effort (that is above an already higher defense budget). Hegseth said, “It takes money to kill bad guys.”. How many bad guys need to be killed and at what cost per "bad guy". What is the cost in terms of the troops? (i.e. lives).. Was the threat imminent to warrant the increased costs? Asking that question is important. This week Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) when pressed directly by Senator Jon Ossoff, declined to say whether intelligence showed Iran posed an "imminent threat" prior to the launch of operations, telling him "the only person who can determine what is and is not an imminent threat is the president." Also, in her written prepared remarks stated that Iran's nuclear enrichment program was obliterated by the June 2025 strikes and that there had been "no efforts since then to try to rebuild their enrichment capability" — a statement she notably omitted from her oral testimony. When Senator Warner confronted her on the omission, he accused her of choosing "to omit the parts that contradict Trump," to which Gabbard said simply she didn't have enough time — but she did not deny the assessment. We will never know.The good news is the Trump brothers—Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump—have reportedly invested in and partnered with a U.S.-based drone technology company as part of a broader push into defense and security-focused industries. The deal centers on developing and scaling advanced drone systems for military, surveillance, and border-security applications, reflecting growing demand for unmanned aerial technology amid rising global geopolitical tensions. Their involvement is seen as both a business opportunity and a strategic alignment with increased government and private-sector spending on defense innovation, particularly as drones become a critical tool in modern warfare and national security operation.Jared Kushner is actively seeking additional funding for his investment firm, Affinity Partners, as part of an effort to expand its portfolio and influence. Recent reports indicate he is targeting roughly $5 billion in new capital, with a significant portion expected to come from Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds, including investors in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. This follows earlier large commitments—most notably a reported $2 billion investment from Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund—which helped launch the firm. While the fundraising reflects strong demand and strategic positioning in global investment markets, it has also drawn scrutiny due to Kushner’s prior role in U.S. foreign policy and ongoing connections in the region, raising questions among critics about potential conflicts of interest.Of note is Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars gas field, prompting retaliatory missile attacks from Tehran on Qatar’s Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas terminal. Whoops. Solving problems can create greater problems for the LNG price, and even for the family members too.Now, Iran is weaker but are all the bad guys gone? Will it go on and on and cost more and more and more. If more key targets are hit, what does that do to the apple cart?. What other industries - other than farmers - will need support? I don't know, but it seems there is a lot of tail chasing now with attempts to solve problems creating even more problems... This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump is lamenting the lack of help in reopening Hormuz:Without the U.S.A., NATO IS A PAPER TIGER! They didn't want to join the fight to stop a Nuclear Powered Iran. Now that fight is Militarily WON, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don't want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military manoeuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices. So easy for them to do, with so little risk. COWARDS, and we will REMEMBER! President DONALD J. TRUMPThere is some generally good news here:1) The US appears to be willing to do it alone2) Trump sounds confident it can be done3) He sounds ready to declare victorySo despite all the unfriendly rhetoric here, this is a positive post for risk assets and should be negative for oil. That said, a US F35 (or two) were struck yesterday by Iran and they hit neighbours with ballistic missiles. The idea they're defeated sounds premature but we will have to wait and see.May WTI crude is down 19-cents to $95.22 but well above the low of $92.47 from early in Asia.The S&P 500 is down 0.5%.I think there is some apprehension going into the weekend because Trump has tended to escalate on Friday nights once the market closes and he's an unpredictable man. The downside here is that the possibility of trump saying "mission accomplished" is dwindling and the US is now committing itself to reopen Hormuz, for however long that takes. Organizing the military escorts of the tankers is also problematic and it's hard to see how you don't lose the Iranian barrels now, even if you regain the ones from other gulf states, so it still leaves the world short of oil. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The CHF weakened initially (USDCHF moved higher) after the SNB signaled a willingness to intervene following its decision to keep rates unchanged on Thursday. The pair extended to a high of 0.7957, stalling just ahead of a downward-sloping trendline on the 4-hour chart.However, the upside momentum could not be sustained. Broad-based USD selling during the North American session triggered a rotation lower, pushing the price back below the 100-hour MA. A rebound during the Asian session lifted the pair back above that level (currently near 0.7885), but once again, buyers failed to maintain control.The pair has since rotated lower, dipping just below yesterday’s low before finding support near the rising 200-hour MA at 0.7869.With price now trading between the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, the short-term bias is neutral, and those MAs are the key directional barometers:Below the 200-hour MA (0.7869): Opens the door for a move toward a key swing area near 0.7837 (a level that held as support on Wednesday and has prior price memory). A break below that targets the 38.2% retracement at 0.7822.Above the 100-hour MA (0.7885): Shifts the bias back to the upside, with a retest of the 0.7900 natural resistance level. A break above that would increase bullish momentum and expose higher levels.In short, the market is in consolidation mode, with the battle between the 100- and 200-hour MAs setting up the next directional move. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

If oil stays high for months on and at some point it leads into core inflation.A high and persistent oil shock would not have a transitory impact on inflation. Based on the jobs report was planning to dissent, but since then inflation has become more of a concernZero job growth does not seem normal, but that is what the math may indicate will keep the unemployment rate stableFed cannot look through a large and persistent will shock, at this point caution for the Fed is warranted.Wants to wait and see how this evolves before deciding on rate cuts for later this year.Fed is making progress on taming structural inflation, which may be close to 2% now but is held higher by tariffs.Do not think there is a need to consider rate hikes.Inflation expectations are not unanchored.Investors understand inflation will drop once tariffs rolloff. If the tariff effects don't roll off in the 2nd half of the year it will be tricky.A shock of the right sort could push companies to start cutting labor. It could be the price of oil moving higher.Consumer outlook could also be damaged with gas prices rising.No reason to make bank reserves scarce just to reduce the balance sheet.Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who had previously leaned toward lower rates, has shifted his stance amid renewed inflation concerns tied to the recent spike in oil prices.Waller argues that rising energy costs pose a broader risk than tariff-driven price increases, as oil feeds into a wide range of goods and services across the economy. In contrast, he views tariffs as more likely to create one-time price adjustments—not sustained inflation.He also noted that tariff-related price pressures have been less pronounced than expected so far. However, he cautioned that if those prices fail to ease by mid-year, it could become a more persistent inflation issue.For now, inflation expectations remain anchored, with the baseline view still leaning toward moderation in price pressures—but Waller’s shift highlights growing sensitivity to energy-driven risks, and a more wait-and-see attitude. Typically, Miran issues a statement on his dissenting bias on the Friday after the rate decision. Awaiting that response. . This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was -0.4%Ex autos +0.8% vs +1.2% expectedPrior ex autos +0.1% (revised to 0.0%)Advance February sales +0.9%Sales hit $70.7 billion in JanuarySales ex autos and gas +0.9%The advance reading tends to be the better signal in this report and the number for February is strong. As for January, vehicles rose 2.0% led by new car dealers. In terms of the core, general merchandise retailers (+3.0%) rose for a fourth month while food and beverage retailers fell 0.6%. Ecommerce sales rose 1.5%. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.